Stats Practice Final Exam

Hypothetically Statistical? Probably Null.

1. Let us begin this celebration of stats by considering that You, U, and I are independent.
If P(You) = 0.3, P(U) = 0.2, and P(I) = 0.4, what is
( ) P You U I ?
2. Now consider You, U, and I are mutually exclusive. If P(You) = 0.3, P(U) = 0.2, and P(I) = 0.4,
what is
( ) P You U I ?
3. Enough of this relationship stuff! ITS TIME FOR SANTA!
Santa has been keeping tabs on all the little boys and little girls. He has kept track of who has
been a little snotface butthead, and who has been a good little gomer. Based on a small cross-
section of the kiddo population (sample of 200 kiddos), he has the following data:

Snotfaced Butthead Good Little Gomer
Little Girl 30 72
Little Boy 36 62

If A is the event that a little girl is a snotfaced butthead, and B is the event that a little boy is a good little
gomer, calculate the following probabilities:
a)
( ) P A
b)
( ) P B
c)
( ) P A B
d)
( ) P A B
e)
( )
c
P A B
f)
( ) | P A B
g)
( ) | P B A
h) Are A and B independent events?

4. The elves are constructing an elaborate electrical circuit to set up a Gangnam Style light show to
entertain the elven children for Christmas Eve. If each box represents the chance that that given
portion of the circuit will function (assume theyre all independent), calculate the probability of
a Psy-filled Christmas Eve:





0.99
0.95 0.94
0.95
0.82 0.75
0.96 0.88


(Heeeeeey sexy laaaaadaaaays!)

5. Christine is writing to Santa, but cant decide what to ask for for Christmas. Here are her
choices, along with their value. Each choice is equally-likely.

Outcome Teddy bear Lamborghini Gallardo World Peace Ryan Gosling
Value ($), x 25 200 000 1 000 000 000 5000

a) Write the probability mass function for her choices.
b) Calculate the following probabilities:
a.
( ) 0 P X >
b.
( ) 25 P X =
c.
( ) 100 P X =
d.
( ) 200 000 P X <
e.
( ) 50 1000 000 P X < <

6. The elves are wrapping gifts and putting bows on them. If the probability of an elf attaching a
delightfully sparkly bow to a gift is 30%, and the elves just wrapped 26 gifts, calculate the
following:
a. Assuming gift-to-gift trials are independent, what is the probability that more than 4
gifts will have a glittery bow?
b. If the elves start over, knowing that sparkly bows occur on 30% of gifts, how many gifts
need to be wrapped before the first sparkly bow is used?

7. Christine has decided to choose Ryan Gosling as her desired gift. But she cant wait until
Christmas instead, she has decided to dial random numbers in the hopes of reaching him.
a. If she has a 0.05% chance of dialing correctly, how long will it take for her to successfully
reach Ryan Gosling?
b. When he picks up, she hangs up the phone, too scared to say anything. DRAT! Now she
starts again. How many calls will it take for her to reach him again?
8. The elves are back to wrapping their gifts. They wrap gifts at an average rate of 1 gifts per
second. What is the probability that the elves will wrap 12 gifts in 10 seconds?
9. Consider the following cumulative distribution function (CDF):

( )
0 1
1
1 1
X
x
F x
x
x
<

=

>

where x is the number of cookies, in trillions, that Santa plans on eating when he visits all the
homes on Christmas Eve.
a)
( ) 0.1 P X <
b)
( ) 0 1 P X < <
c)
( ) 0.5 P X =

10. Santa has set up a nanny cam in the elven workshop to keep track of how long the elves spend
on break. He models their daily break time using a normal distribution. The elves mean break
time is 40 hours a day (totally possible, given that this is the North Pole), with a standard
deviation of 2 hours. Calculate the following probabilities, where X is the random variable.
a. The elves are on break for less than 39 hours a day.
b. The elves are on break for more than 44 hours a day.
c. The elves are on break for between 35 and 45 hours a day.
d.
( ) 0.2 P X x < =
e.
( ) 0.95 P x X x < < =

11. Even though Christine decided on Ryan Gosling for Christmas, she decided to send Santa her
whole list to see if she could get even MORE than one gift. Santa gets the list and chuckles, like
Santa would. Compute the sample mean and sample standard deviation of the list.

Outcome Teddy bear Lamborghini Gallardo World Peace Ryan Gosling
Value ($) 25 200 000 1 000 000 000 5000

12. Santa bought shares in a cat litter company. The company went bust, and now Santa has to get
rid of all the stupid cat litter samples that he ended up with. He decides to give them out as
Christmas gifts in 4% of the presents that he delivers. Of the 7 billion gifts that he delivers,
what is the probability that fewer than 280 million people get a cat litter sample?

13. The elves have been given their annual physical, numericalized (its a word) in terms of health
points. The current years data (5 elves were tested) has a sample mean of 150 and sample
standard deviation of 20. An elven doctor and says that this data is BS! He has old research that
he collected from years ago, which has a sample mean of 100 a sample standard deviation of 30
(10 elves were tested). Using 0.05 o = , test the hypothesis that the two means arent different
at all (
1 2
= ), and that the old elven doctor is cray cray. What is the P-value?
14. One particular elf has appeared to score pretty high on his physical in the past few years, getting
scores of 400, 460, 540, 600, and 530. Compare his scores to the most recent scores available
using a 90% two-sided confidence interval. If his mean falls outside the confidence interval,
there is only one conclusion: THAT ELF IS DOPING.
15. The elves have made 300 batches of egg nog, with an average egg concentration of 5905 ppm
and a SD of s = 50 ppm. If the average egg concentration must exceed 5900 ppm. Perform the
following hypothesis test:

0 0
1 0
:
:
H
H


=
>


If the required average egg concentration is exceeded (95% confidence), the batches will be
used. WILL THEY BE USED?!

16. The elves are decorating the Christmas tree. Its much larger than last years tree. Using linear
regression, theyve modeled the number of decorations required (y) based on the trees
bigness (x). Using the data theyve been collecting over the past few Christmases, do the
following:
a. REGRESS THAT DATA! (i.e. find equation of line of best fit,
0 1

y x | | = + )
b. If the bigness of this years tree is 500, how many decorations are needed?
c. Whats the average rate of change of Christmas decorations per tree bigness?
d. How many decorations are required for NO TREE?!
2 2
5, 600, 73000, 20, 6000, 3600
i i i i i i
n y y x x x y = = = = = =


17. That nerdy elf from the Calc III final exam is back. He doesnt think the Christmas tree data
should be modeled using linear regression. Use a hypothesis test to check the slope for
significant (95% confidence). Is the nerdy elf right?

18. The elves are assigned the task of fitting the reindeer with proper cold gear before they are sent
out on their Christmas Eve voyage. For the reindeer involved, the process must be carefully
controlled. Thus, the system is checked prior to being put into use.
a. If 20 trials are performed to test the system, and
2
40 r d = , determine the upper and
lower control limits of the process.
b. Rudolph comes along with a jacket with a cold gear rating of 25. Is this good enough?