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10 Feb.

09

Germany : Trade surplus narrowed in December


France: Business Confidence rebounds from 22 year low in January

General Electric (+13.87 %) soared


10-year Treasury rate above 3.00 %
Oil below $40 /bbl

US 10-year Treasury rate


since September

Source : Bloomberg
The 10-year Treasury rate reached 3.05 %, the first time above 3.00 % since November 08. On
Tuesday, $23 billion in one-year notes and a record $32 billion in three-year notes will be on sale.
Wednesday will bring $21 billion in 10-year notes, followed by $14 billion in long bonds the following day.
Both long-term debt sales are for the most ever

Indexes Price % 5 Days Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd


DJIA 8270,9 4,41% -5,76% EUR/USD 1,2887 -1,17% -7,76%
S&P 500 869,9 5,52% -3,69% EUR/JPY 117,78 -0,98% -7,05%
Nasdaq 1591,6 6,57% 0,92% USD/JPY 91,40 -2,13% 0,82%
CAC 40 3134,9 6,99% -2,58% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DAX 4666,8 9,27% -2,98% Brent $/b 46,0 4,30% 9,72%
Eurostoxx 50 2349,0 6,83% -4,03% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 199,4 7,08% 0,50% Gold $/oz 895,0 -0,52% 1,54%
FTSE 100 4307,6 6,00% -2,85% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 7945,9 1,21% -10,31% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,10
Shanghai Comp 2265,2 10,59% 24,40% Overnight 0,20 1,00 0,10
Sensex (India) 9702,0 5,70% 0,57% 3 Months 0,32 1,01 0,25
MICEX (Russia) 698,7 11,54% 12,78% 10 Years** 2,97 3,38 1,32
Bovespa (Brasil) 42100,1 8,88% 12,12% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi
** Euro: German Bund rate Source : Bloomberg
!

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services Committee about the Fed's
"extraordinary efforts to provide liquidity in the current financial crisis."
New York Fed President Bill Dudley speaks at his district's conference on inflation-indexed securities.
General elections in Israel
Timothy Geithner, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, now US Treasury secretary, is scheduled
to give evidence before a Senate oversight committee considering a new plan for the troubled asset relief programme.
A three-day summit of Israel's decision-makers, focusing on the balance of national security with regard to international
relations, society, economics and the Jewish world, begins in Herzliya
Super Return, a three-day European private equity and venture capital summit, opens in Berlin
The UK banking bill reaches its report stage in the House of Lords
World Ski Championship (Val d’Isère, France) Fev 3rd – 15th

Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous


00.50 am Japan Housing loans YoY Fourth quarter 4,2%
01.01 am United Kingdom RICS House price balance January - 70 % -73,3 %
03.00 am China Producer price Index January -2,6 % -1,1 %
03.00 am China Consumer price Index January 0,8% 1,2%
06.00 am Japan Consumer confidence January 26,7
06.00 am Japan Consumer confidence household January 25,2 26,2
February China Money supply M2 10-13 February 18,4% YoY 17,8% YoY
February China Money supply M1 10-13 February 9,1%
February China Money supply M0 10-13 February 12,7 %
08.45 am France Industrial production December - 1 %, - 10,1 % YoY -1,8 %, -10,7 % YoY -2,4%,-9,0% YoY
08.45 am France Manufacturing production December -2,2%,-12,8% YoY -3,1%,-11,0% YoY
10.00 am Italy Industrial production December - 1, 9%,-11,3 % YoY -2,3%,-9,7% YoY
10.30 am United Kingdom Visible trade balance December £- 8,1 billion £- 8,3 billion
10.30 am United Kingdom Total trade balance December £ -4,2 billion £ -4,4 billion
04.00 pm United States Wholesale inventories December -0,7% -0,6%
04.00 pm United States Bernanke testifies on Fed programs
11.00 pm United States ABC consumer confidence 8 th February - 52 -52

"! ! #!

Results Plan auto : 9 milliards d’euros pour quoi faire ?


Ciba / Gas Nat (BMO) / Faurecia / UBS / Applied La Tribune, p 2 et 3
Materials
Nissan to cut jobs, Japan output
The Wall Street Journal, p 4

Asia’s economic heart attack


Financial Times, p 9

Emissions record d’emprunts d’Etat cette semaine


Les Echos, p 32

Paris et Berlin réclament un sommet avant le G 20


Le Figaro économie, p 22

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Economic data preview

No major economic data due in the United States

Watch in the France the release of the industrial production for December due at 08.45 am which is expected to pursue its drop trend as
the country which was already facing big structural issues before the world economic crisis is presently strongly hit by the global economic
downturn and is about to face a deflation situation. Watch as well in the United-Kingdom the release of the trade balance for December
due at 10.30am. United -Kingdom is expected to reduce its trade balance deficit as the sharp drop of the British pound is boosting
exportation despite the global economic slowdown./JB

ate

ECONOMY

GERMANY : TRADE SURPLUS NARROWED IN DECEMBER


After the drop of German ‘industrial production in December released last Friday (4.6%, -12.0%YoY)it is now the turn of exports to plunge.
Indeed after falling by a record in November ( -10.8%),German’s exports declined of -3.7% in December as the recession is strongly hitting
its main trade partners , slowing down sharply the demand for German’s goods abroad. In the mean time as Germany is facing a deep
recession ,importations dropped 4.1% in December. As a matter of fact the trade surplus narrowed to its lowest level for 9 years at € 6.9
billion (previous € 9.9 billion)and the surplus in current account ( the measure of all trade including services) rose from € 8.7 billion in
November to € 12.3 billion in December. Germany which growth model is essentially based on exportations is strongly hit by the global
economic slowdown and household consumption is not taking over. Germany who was the third world’s largest economy has been lately
over cross by China.

FRANCE: BUSINESS CONFIDENCE REBOUNDS FROM 22 YEAR LOW IN JANUARY


After reaching its lowest level in more than two decades in December ( 67) the French manufacturing confidence rose in January at 70.
The French business confidence was led up by the government plan for the car industry of € 6 billion over five years in aid on the
conditions that PSA Peugeot , Citroen and Renault make commitments on future investment and production in France. This plan will be
add to the € 26 billion stimulus package already granted by the French government last month.

EURO -AREA : THE SENTIX INVESTORS CONFIDENCE FELL IN FEBRUARY


The European investors confidence fell from -34.4 in January to -36.1 in February. A sub index measuring current business conditions
dropped to - 52.25, the lowest since the survey started in February 2003 from -37.25. European investors confidence is logically led down
by the region’s worst recession since world war two. The major risk for the Area is for now to face a deflation situation in which the global
offer will be much higher than the demand generating a rise of unemployment , bankruptcies … To avoid such terrible situation the
European Central Bank should lower its main interest rate to 1.00% as soon as possible because soon it will be to late knowing that the
time frame of a rate action take between 6 to 9 months to impact on the economy./JB

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General Electric (+13.87 %) soared
10-year Treasury rate above 3.00 %
Oil below $40 /bbl
A tense battle over the fate of the economic stimulus package left traders cautious on Monday. The major indexes
were barely changed as traders weighed the prospects of a new Senate recovery bill forged over the weekend.
On Saturday, members of the Senate reached a tentative agreement over the stimulus bill, cutting billions of dollars in
environmental and health care spending from an earlier version of the measure. Banks were mixed (Bank of America
+12.40 %, Citigroup +1.02 %, Morgan Stanley +3.24 %, Wells Fargo -0.42 %, Bank of New York -0.53 %) while
other financials were broadly on the downside: Visa -0.16 %, MasterCard -0.30 %, AllState -1.67 %. Homebuilders
decreased as well: DR Horton -1.20 %, KB Home -3.50 %, Lennar -6.34 %, Centex -5.47 %. Oil companies
(ExxonMobil -1.07 %, Chevron -0.64 %, ConocoPhillips +1.23 %) and oil services (Halliburton -0.15 %, Nabors
+0.76 %, Schlumberger +1.83 %) were mixed while refiners rose: Valero +3.41 %, Sunoco +1.13 %. With the
exception of Alcoa (+1.19 %), basic resources were down: Newmont Mining -2.82 %, Nucor -1.13 %, Freeport
McMoran -1.64 %. General Electric (+13.87 %) rose sharply, but industrials were mixed: Ford -2.06 %, Deere -2.85
%, 3M +3.28 %. General Motors (-0.35 %) is in talks to take back large portions of Delphi Corp, the parts supplier
spun off by the auto maker a decade ago. The discussions are part of GM's strategy to line up additional bailout funds
from the U.S. government, which has already committed $13.4bn to the car company, according to the WSJ.
Whirlpool (+2.03 %), the world's biggest appliance maker, reported lower quarterly profit (-76% to $44m, or
$%&'( $0.60/share) as sales fell worldwide (-19% to $4.3bn) and it posted an operating loss in North America, its biggest
market. The company said it was taking additional moves to cut costs. he company, whose debt ratings have been
)*+,'-
downgraded recently, said it was in full compliance with bank covenants, but had began talks with banks to "seek
additional flexibility within its capital structure. Retailers were down (Target -0.88 %, Wal Mart -0.71 %, Home Depot -
1.87 %) such as pharmaceuticals: Merck -0.39 %, Pfizer -0.88 %. Techs (Hewlett-Packard -1.41 %, Microsoft -1.12
%, Dell +1.90 %, Apple +2.80 %) and semiconductors (Intel +1.22 %, Micron Technology +5.88 %, Texas
Instruments -0.46 %, AMD -2.07 %) were mixed. Consumer stocks were mixed as well: Yum Brands +0.70 %,
Starbucks +1.71 %, PepsiCo -3.92 %, Coca-Cola -2.85 %, Procter & Gamble -1.96 %. Mc Donald’s (+0.96 %)
same store sales +7.1% System wide sales +2.6% or 9.1% in constant currency. Rohm & Hass (-0.38 %) said
quarterly revenue was down 13.3% at $2.03bn ($2.239bn exp.) decrease in all businesses and regions except salt Net
-82.2% at $32m ($180m n-1), from continuing operations ex items -23.6% Net debt at $3.052bn. FedEx (+0.71 %) has
cut about 900 jobs at its FedEx Freight unit, the latest fallout from the downturn facing the freight sector.

AFTER SESSION: Bank of America-2.76%, Qwest Communication-4.15%,Citigroup-1.01%,iShares -


1.02%,Advanced Micro -1.69%,ProShare -2.43%.
This morning (7.31 GMT) INDEX FUTURES were down: DJIA -0.718 %,S&P 500 - 0.959 %, NASDAQ -0.470 %.
/JFV
Treasuries fell on Monday, pushing yields to their highest in more than two months, before the government
floods the market with its biggest quarterly refunding package on record. The 10-year Treasury rate reached 3.05 %,
the first time above 3.00 % since November 08. On Tuesday, $23 billion in one-year notes and a record $32 billion
in three-year notes will be on sale. Wednesday will bring $21 billion in 10-year notes, followed by $14 billion in long
."/01 bonds the following day. Both long-term debt sales are for the most ever. Shorter-term securities fared better, with
)*+,'- yields a little lower in early trading, amid disappointment in further delays from Washington in the details of a plan to
support banks and continuing debate in Congress over the stimulus package. The Treasury Department sold $31
billion in three-month bills at a rate of 0.345%. It also sold $30 billion in six-month bills at a rate of 0.488%.
(Treasurys 2-year rate at 1.00 %, +5 bps, 5-year rate at 1.94 %, +2 bps, 10-year rate at 2.98 %, +3 bps, 30-year
rate at 3.65 %, -3 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread decreased to -48 bps. /JFV
Japan’s stocks slumped for a second day of 23.09 pts or 0.3 % to close at 7,945.94 in Tokyo. The market was
led down by lower earnings projections from Orix Corp and Japan Steel Work Ltd and investors are still in the
expectation of the adoption of the bank rescue plan in the U.S. to ease credit turmoil. More generally Asian material
-&)0 $%&'( and consumer stocks fell after President Barack Obama said the U.S. faces a “ full blown crisis”. In Tokyo component
)*+,'- sector went down ( CSK Holding-9.12%,Advantest -2.46%,Nec -2.43%),electronic sector went down(Casio -
4.00%),car sector went down ( Bridgestone -3.52%,Denso-2.98) but Nissan climbed 7.3% percent after saying it will
cut 20 000 jobs as it tries to return to profit. Oil sector went down ( INPEX -0.72%) as the barrel dropped under $40
and as uncertainty is high on the global economic outlook./JB
Crude-oil prices erased earlier gains Monday, closing below $40 a barrel for the first time in three weeks on
speculation that the stimulus plan being debated in the U.S. Senate may not be enough to boost the sagging oil
demand. The stimulus package and OPEC that is willing to cut oil output further at a meeting in March after it ensures
&2 full compliance with current quotas helped crude early but the oil market has been worried about sluggish demand and
excess crude in storage. The WTI retreated 1.52 % at $39.56 a barrel while the Brent slightly advanced $0.48 at
$45.98 a barrel. The futures for March delivery were up 0.81 % this morning at $39.88 a barrel. / LC
The euro fell after a Russian bank official said the nation’s lenders asked the government to help moderate
talks with foreign lenders on $400 billion of loans, adding to speculation financial turmoil in Europe is worsening.
The yen ended a three-day loss versus the euro after European finance ministers signalled increasing concern that
/*,3 some governments are finding it harder to borrow in financial markets. The dollar strengthened on optimism the U.S.
government’s stimulus and bank-rescue packages will help spur growth in the world’s largest economy
(1.2857 EUR/USD vs. 1.2893 yesterday morning, 117.57 EUR/JPY vs. 117.42, 91.44 USD/JPY vs. 91.09). /JFV

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Europe America Asia
Indices 9/2/09 % Chg Indices 9/2/09 % Chg Indices 10/2/09 % Chg
EuroStoxx 50 2349 +0,23% DJIA 8271 -0,12% Nikkei 7946 -0,29%
DJ 600 199 +0,41% S&P 500 870 +0,15% Topix 778 -0,10%
FTSE 100 4308 +0,37% NASDAQ 1592 -0,01% Hong Kong 13804 +0,13%
DAX (XETRA) 4667 +0,48% TSX 9047 +0,44% Singapore 1691 +0,57%
CAC 40 3135 +0,39% Bolsa (Mexico) 20537 +0,48% South Korea 1199 -0,32%
AEX (Pays Bas) 263 +0,52% Bovespa (Br.) 42100 -1,53% Thailand 442 -0,52%
SMI (Suisse) 5159 +0,69% Merval (Argent.) 1136 -0,69% Indonesia 1336 -0,44%
S&P / MIB (Italie) 19679 +1,09% IPSA (Chili) 12759 +0,48% Taiwan 4526 +0,70%
IBEX 35 (Esp.) 8585 +0,47% IGBVL (Pérou) 6991 +0,17% China 2265 +1,82%
BVL (Portugal) 2151 +0,39% India 9697 +1,23%
Source : Bloomberg
Euro Stoxx 50 % Euro Stoxx 50 % Dow Jones % Dow Jones % Nikkei 225 % Nikkei 225 %
RENAULT SA 7,16 E.ON AG -3,81 13,87
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO COCA-COLA CO/THE-2,85 7,27
OKI ELECTRIC IND CO LTD KOBE STEEL LTD -12,69
6,18
DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED -3,28
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG-REG 3M CO 3,28 -1,96
PROCTER & GAMBLE CO T&D HOLDINGS INC 6,84 -9,12
CSK HOLDINGS CORP
DOWN

DOWN

DOWN
UP

UP

UP
ALLIANZ SE-REG 5,26 GDF SUEZ -2,90 INTEL CORP 1,22 HOME DEPOT INC -1,87 MITSUI ENGINEER & 4,80
SHIPBUILD CLARION CO LTD -8,77
UNICREDIT SPA 5,12 DEUTSCHE BOERSE-1,96
AG 1,20 CORP
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CATERPILLAR INC -1,68 4,44
SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GRTOAGOSEI CO LTD -8,58
4,55 SHARES
DAIMLER AG-REGISTERED NOKIA OYJ -1,91 ALCOA INC 1,19 HEWLETT-PACKARD-1,41
CO TOTO LTD 4,36 -7,51
JAPAN STEEL WORKS LTD

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4
ACCOR & MasterCard agreed to create a prepaid services JV in Europe / Accor will hold 67% of the JV while
MasterCard Europe will hold 33% / Accor targets 5% (€6-7bn) of Europe prepaid market by 2015 / Separately, as
expected, Colony Capital bought €55.22 m worth of shares in Accor between Jan. 27 and Jan. 30 / As of Jan. 27, Colony
and Eurazeo held 28.18% of Accor's capital
UBS : Q4 Net New Money Outflows SFR58.2bn from Wealth Management & SFR27.6bn from AM (Both positive in Jan.)
/ Revenue SFR -4.08bn (SFR3.3bn e) / Net Loss SFR8.1bn (SFR6.2bn e) / No dividend / Trading Loss SFR8.8bn /
Tier1 Ratio 11.5% end 2008 / Encouraging start in 2009 / Repeats target for 2009 profit / Will pay out bonuses of
SFR1.16 bn in 2008
SVANSKA HANDELSBANKEN : Q4 NII SEK5.47bn (SEK4.94bn exp) / Operating Profit SEK5.22bn (SEK3.85bn exp)
/ Div SEK7 (SEK6.43 exp) / Tier1 Ratio 10.5% at End 2008 / Loan losses SEK696m (SEK531m exp)
TELE 2 : Q4 revenue Sek 10.32bn (10.07bn exp) / Ebitda Sek 2.17bn (2.10bn exp) / Dividend Sek 3.50 + special
dividend Sek 1.50 / Not yet affected by current turmoil / Said it was difficult to give a clear outlook for 2009
LAFARGE would have started discussions with potential investors on Turkish unit for strategic options…
C&W said it is trading in line with expectations and is on track to achieve its guidance for group EBITDA of at least £780
m
CONTINENTAL : Abu Dhabi's IPIC is considering buying a stake of 25%, in either Schaeffler or its 49.9% stake in
Continental (FTD)
ENI and Angola's state oil company have signed 3 deals aimed to boost hydrocarbon exploration + energy infrastructure
in the country

"
EADS won’t be able to start deliveries of the A400M military plane until 2012 (Le Figaro) / Delays may cost €5bn
NORDEA : Q4 NII €1.39bn (1.28bn exp) / Net commissions €390m (459m exp) / Q4 loans losses €320m (-160m exp)
/ Q4 Operating €781m (820m e) / Div. cut to €0.20 (0.37 e) + proposes rights issue to boost capital by €3bn / New
share issue of €2.5bn guaranteed
PEUGEOT : CEO said sales could fall by 20% in 2009 / Expects 2010 to be difficult
INFINEON : Global DRAM revenue is seen falling by a wider-than-expected 15% this year as memory chip makers were
hit by heavy losses in the last quarter and cut supplies radically (iSuppli)
TIETOENATOR : Q4 sales €492 (497 m e) / Div. of €0.50 (0.57 e) / Sees no growth in IT market in 2009 with lower
prices
BASF : CIBA posted a Q4 net loss of SFR41 m hurt by the slowdown and high input costs / Does not expect market
demand to show any meaningful recovery until late in 2009 at the earliest… / Acquisition by BASF expected to close by
the end of Q1
AIR FRANCE : Australia's competition watchdog sued Air France and 2 other airlines over allegations they were
involved in price-fixing
QIAGEN : Q4 sales $237.2 m, in line / Sees adjusted EPS of $0.92-$0.98 in 2009 (0.98 exp)

" !
INFINEON RAISED TO HOLD FROM SELL BY RBS
BRITISH ARIWAYS ADDED TO EUROPE 1 LIST BY BANK OF AMERICA
MERCK KGAA RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT FROM UNDER BY MORGAN STANLEY

LOREAL CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM OVERWEIGHT BY JPMORGAN


BEIERSDORFCUT TO UNDERWEIGHT FROM OVERWEIGHT BY JPMORGAN
FORTUM CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM OVERWEIGHT BY JPMORGAN
DANSKE BANK CUT TO UNDERPERFORM FROM BUY BY BANK OF AMERICA
SANTANDER CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY BY SOC GEN

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