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= F
in
+ C (t) (1 )eoT
4
(W/ m
2
) (15)
and where C(t) is no longer a term which can represent the greenhouse effect, but is kept for
generality. In this formulation, the greenhouse effect as the gamma term has the same effect as
emissivity. However, the bulk of the atmosphere is actually very stable in temperature, so the
(1 ) term could be removed and another constant term such as G
0
could be added to
represent greenhouse effect heating. . . . So let us just write
t
= F
in
+ G
O
(1 )eoT
4
(W/ m
2
) (16)
and then we can explore the effects of using either G
0
or in a numerical solution to get an idea of
how the greenhouse effect affects the heat flow balance.
Instead of removing (1 ), as he said he could, Postma removed C(t) and replaced that with G
0
.
There thus appears to be a contradiction between his text and his revised formula [16]. He had
defined C(t) on page 13: C(t) is literally a climate term which could be either positive or negative
(adding heat or taking heat away) in total, or composed of several unique contributions depending
on if there is an additional heat source such as the greenhouse effect, or chemical and geologic
sources etc., or an active cooling mechanism such as that caused by wind.
So, in removing C(t) he removed any adjustment for heat loss by thermals and evaporation, and
replaced it with a second additive greenhouse variable in his formula [16]. Little wonder then that
Postma obtained such strong temperature responses when he used the KT97 value of 324 W/m
2
for
12
G
0
, illustrated in his Figure 5; and the Jacob (1999) value of 0.77 for in his Figure 6; both shown on
page 21 and discussed on page 22 (and reproduced below).
If you factor in the KT97 backradiation of 324 W/m
2
, you also need to factor in the KT97 energy
losses for thermals (24 W/m
2
) and evaporation (78 W/m
2
). Indeed, you need to subtract multiples of
the combined global mean (~102 W/m
2
) for peak evaporation and thermals at or shortly after zenith
insolation, whereas the GHE input remains constant.
Figure 5: Temperature responses with and without G0 term for two values of tau. The value for G0 is
explained in the text.
Figure 6: Temperature responses with and without gamma term for two values of tau. The value for is
explained in the text.
Note that Postmas temperature response to =0.77 is even greater than that to G
0
=324 W/m
2
. Had
he plugged both values (for G
0
and ) simultaneously into his formula [16], which it permits, he might
have produced a Venus-like temperature! On page 28, he links his fictitious formula [16] to papers
by Smith [2], Kiehl and Trenberth [25] and others. But you wont find any such formula there.
13
3. Discussion of Data and Collection
3.1. Raw data
Postma describes the half-hourly monitoring of air and ground temperature and insolation over two
days (21-22 June, 2012) up by Carl Brehmer at Chino Valley in Arizona at latitude 34.8N and altitude
4,701ft (1,433m). To monitor insolation, he used an Apogee model MP-200 pyranometer, which
measures wavelengths 280-2800nm with an error of <1% at operating temperatures of 5-40C, has a
cosine response of 1% at 45 and 4% at 75 from the zenith, and costs $359. It does not measure
far infrared radiation in the terrestrial or atmospheric spectrum (>3000nm).
The air temperature and humidity were monitored using an EasyLog model EL-USB-2 and the ground
temperature with a thermocouple and EasyLog model EL-USB-1. Whereas Postma says: Day-time-
high air temperatures are typically observed approximately 3 hours after the solar noon, (p. 15)
Brehmers peak temperature occurred at 1.30pm on both days. The raw data is tabulated in
Postmas Appendix F (pp. 64-66) and plotted in his Figure 7, reproduced below:
Figure 7: Plot of raw measurement data of insolation and ground and air temperatures. Data analysis is
found in a later section.
3.2. Preliminary data analysis
The measured maximum insolations from day 1 and 2 were 1060 W/m
2
and 1052 W/m
2
,
respectively, while the calculated TOA flux was 1291 W/m
2
for both days. . . . Averaging the
maximum flux values results in an extinction of . . . 0.182 or 18.2%. The calculated TOA flux was
then linearly scaled down to reflect this value, and the comparison to the measured insolation is
seen in Figure 8, below. (p. 24)
14
Figure 8: Plot of calculated & measured insolation curves, showing extinction.
Carl Brehmer measured the surface reflectivity over 12 hours on June 13, 2012, by turning the
pyranometer upside-down and registering the value of reflected short-wave radiation; the results
can be found in Appendix G, and are plotted in Figure 9 and Figure 10, and the measurements
have an average value of o ~ 0.26 . (p. 26) The albedo actually varied from about 3.0 at sunrise
and sunset (0) to 2.2 at midday (80). I have no problems with Postmas presentation of Brehmers
study thus far.
3.3. Comparison of the postulate of the greenhouse effect to empirical data
Our surface thermocouple was attached directly to the ground surface and measured the rise and
fall in its temperature throughout the day; if the greenhouse effect is present and the sky clear so
that there are no confounding factors from clouds etc. - all you have is the pure insolation and
straight greenhouse effect - then the temperature generated upon the surface has to rise above
that provided by solar insolation alone, otherwise we lose the basis for the greenhouse effect
postulate in the first place. In the next section we discuss an even easier way to test for this, but
see Figure 11 below. (p. 28, emphasis mine)
Figure 11: No greenhouse effect is observed in empirical data.
15
In Figure 11, we have taken the measured solar insolation values and converted them to their
temperature-forcing value (factored for albedo), and plotted that against the ground temperature
and air temperature. As can be seen, the ground temperature does not exceed the temperature of
the solar insolation. This is impossible given the conditions of Equation (16) with either
formulation of the greenhouse effect heating term . . . (p. 29)
I cant fault the maths and admit that Postmas argument looks impressive at first glance; but he
forgets what he said on pages 15 and 16 when claiming there are no confounding factors from
clouds etc. - all you have is the pure insolation and straight greenhouse effect.
On page 15, he states: The natural cooling effects of the air due to convection and wind, which is
driven by the temperature generated upon the ground . . . and that temperature on the ground
on Day 1 went to a scorching 345K (72C), which was 33.5K warmer than the air 1.5m above it, and
31.5K warmer on Day 2. Thermals (conduction and convection) would have had a major cooling
effect on that ground. I suspect that the slightly lower temperatures (for both air and ground) on
Day 2 related to increased wind and conductive cooling, but the wind speed was unfortunately not
measured; nor were any measures taken to limit wind or convective cooling.
Postma rediscovers this air-conduction on page 48, where he approvingly quotes Doug Cotton:
However, in the case of the surface / atmosphere interface, at least 70% of heat transfer from the
surface to the atmosphere is non-radiative transfer. And on page 49, Postma states: The
atmosphere is heated . . . mostly by contact with the ground surface . . . GHE-deniers extol non-
radiative heat loss when it suits, but quickly and conveniently forget about it when it doesnt!
With a thermal conductivity for air of 0.024 W/m.K, we would need to know the air temperature
much closer than 1.5m above the ground to calculate the conductive heat loss from a surface at
345K. Using the KT97 value of 24 W/m
2
for thermals averaged over the globe, zenith insolation
would be expected to produce four times that, and even more with a ground temperature of 72C.
So there could be well over 100 W/m
2
of GHE, neutralised by conduction / convection, right there in
Brehmers data.
Moreover, Postma ignores conduction to subsoil. On page 16, he states: Solar forcing acts directly
only on the top few millimeters of surface soil itself . . . and this is where the incoming short wave
radiant energy performs work and raises the temperature. This heat energy will then conduct its
way down into the subsurface until it merges with the geothermal temperature at a depth of
somewhere around, say, 5 to 10 meters and temperature of approximately 5C to 10C. But he
apparently forgot about this when interpreting his Figure 11.
On page 30, he reports Carl Brehmer checking the soil temperature on 28 August (after several
months of summer) and finding it to be 25C (298K) at a depth of 84cm, with a diurnal temperature
range of just 0.11C. From his Figure 4 (which has aforementioned problems), it is likely that the
temperature at this depth on 21-22 June was several degrees cooler (i.e. 22-23C). So the
temperature difference from the surface to 84cm on 21 June could have been ~49K. We dont know
enough about the nature, density and moisture content of Brehmers soil to accurately calculate
conductive heat loss; but if we accept a thermal conductivity of ~0.9W/m.K for dry sandy loam,
16
the
conductive loss would be:
= ~53 W/m
2
So we now have at least 150 W/m
2
of GHE, neutralised by conduction to air and soil, and probably a
great deal more. Furthermore, the peak surface temperature was 45-50C warmer than soil 84cm
16
below, whereas the overnight surface minimum was just 5-8C cooler than the subsoil at 84cm. The
peak surface cooling temperature gradient was thus 6-10 times the peak surface warming gradient
from below, thus suggesting additional energy input from above.
The ground temperature on Day 1 was above the albedo-corrected insolation temperature at all
times other than at the very peak. The increasing ground temperature in the early morning could
only be coming from above; and although the air temperature warmed faster than ground
temperature soon after sunrise on both days, this could not convectively warm the ground beneath
it (as Postma aptly points out on page 34). Rather, as the sun-warmed air stopped cooling the
surface, atmospheric radiation reinforced the weak insolation and so the ground temperature rose
well ahead of the insolation temperature, as shown in Figure 11.
When the ground temperature peaked at 72C, solar radiation received exactly equalled radiation
emitted, and therefore heat lost by conduction (above and below) had to exactly equal thermal
energy gained from absorbed atmospheric radiation. Brehmers data demonstrates very nicely that,
without any atmospheric input of energy there is ipso facto no spare energy for conduction (up or
down) and therefore no heat storage. You cant have one without the other. If there was no
atmospheric input, there could be no conductive loss, even at peak insolation. GHE-deniers thus
have to deny (or conveniently ignore) conduction when interpreting Figure 11.
Postma also ignored the effect of humidity and altitude on the greenhouse effect at Chino Valley in
Arizona. Brehmer recorded a relative humidity of just 2.5% at peak insolation when air temperature
was 311K. The water vapour content at this altitude and temperature was therefore only about
0.17% by volume. This is just 6.8% of the global average of 0.0194kg/m
3
calculated by Postma; and
since the height of the troposphere is 15% less at 1433m elevation, the total tropospheric water
vapour (the dominant GHG) above Brehmers monitoring station was barely 6% of Postmas global
average. The GHE at Chino Valley in June would thus be significantly less than the global average,
but still sufficient to clearly show itself in Brehmers data.
Rather than disproving the GHE, therefore, Brehmers observations very nicely demonstrate it.
3.4. The back-radiation/glass greenhouse justification for the GHE
I have no problem with Postmas description of how greenhouses actually work or his criticism of
simplistic explanations of the GHE (in Appendix H), or even with his assertion on page 32:
If back-radiation augments the warming that sunlight provides, as alleged in the references and
quotations in Appendix H and by the heat-flow equation developed earlier in this report, then the
atmospheric GHE should be able to generate higher temperature than real-time insolation can
provide, even at its maximum. To this author's knowledge, however, this has never been
demonstrated for a greenhouse, let alone the actual atmosphere.
In his heat-flow equations developed earlier, however, Postma did not correct for the absorption of
solar IR by glass or GHGs. Because of the reduced transmittance of solar IR, daytime experiments
with glass have not confirmed any GHE; but I am unaware of any night-time studies of cooling rates.
I therefore propose the following experiment:
17
Overnight Greenhouse Experiment
Each of four identical white Styrofoam boxes (Fig. 12) would be filled as follows:
- Bottom 1/3 with dry river-sand (equal quantities for thermal mass, and a thermocouple
placed above it at the centre)
- Middle 1/3 with dry air (and covered with a thin IR-transparent film)
- Top 1/3 with experimental Gas (containing a sealed water reservoir in one corner, a
thermocouple suspended as shown and covered with the same IR-transparent film)
Figure 12: Depiction of control and experimental boxes for 3-day GHE experiment
All boxes would slope slightly towards the corner with the water reservoir so that condensation
would run into the open reservoir in the water vapour box (# 3 below). The Gas in the upper
chamber of each box would be:
1. Control Box: - Ambient air of low humidity
2. Pure CO
2
: introduced from a gas cylinder through a valve in the side of the box and vented
at the top until more than full and the valve closed
3. Water vapour:- saturated air and OPEN water reservoir
4. Greenhouse:- Ambient air of same low humidity as control box with IR-absorbing glass on
top of IR-transparent film
The boxes would be simultaneously placed close to each other, but separated, in a uniformly sun-
exposed area for three days (72 hours) during the Australian summer, during which temperatures
would be simultaneously recorded at 2-hourly intervals from digital thermometers connected to all 8
thermocouples and plotted against time. The fine details of this concept need clarification and
elaboration.
Now, back to Postmas paper:
To test for a GHE at peak insolation, Postma proposes a simple experiment using black paper (Bristol
board) with a thermocouple on top of it. He suggests putting it on top of a stack of sheets to help
insulate against the surface contact, thus acknowledging that this paper has poor thermal
conductivity. So the thermocouple would be heated more by direct sunlight than by the paper, and
his discussed absorptivity/emissivity of the paper is almost irrelevant. He does at least advise a
wind-break to limit conductive loss. Pity Brehmer didnt do this.
18
Postma concludes section three by likening radiation to conduction and by misrepresenting
adherents of the GHE:
Now, it is interesting to note that physics has never considered a back-heating term from back-
conduction, in that the heat from the atmosphere, being of a cooler temperature but having been
gained from the surface originally, is never thought to sensibly return to the surface again and
thus further increase its temperature, or alternatively, to cause an increase in temperature due to
the conductive resistance from the atmosphere. This is only a scheme that adherents of the GHE
seem to propose for radiation when they suggest that back-radiative heating, or alternatively
sometimes called back-radiative resistance, does cause such a temperature increase, with their
necessary justification being postulated that radiation doesnt need to follow the Laws of
Thermodynamics in the same way we expect of sensible transfer. This is of course rather
doubtful. (p. 34)
That energy transfer by radiation is fundamentally different from sensible heat transfer by
conduction is very basic physics. Sound proponents of the GHE clearly differentiate the two and
never say that backradiation on its own heats Earths surface, or that it contravenes any Laws of
Thermodynamics. Indeed, it is the GHE-deniers who ignore the first law of thermodynamics when
asserting that the electromagnetic energy in backradiation has no thermal effect on Earths surface,
or else deny Kirchhoffs Law by claiming that those wavelengths are not absorbed. This is a case of
the pot calling the kettle black.
19
4. The Sun and Global Energy
4.1. The sun heats the Earth?
Is it possible that the Sun can heat the Earth all by itself, or does the atmosphere provide twice as
much heating energy as the Sun provides as per the K&T Global Energy Budget *25+ as supported
by the IPCC and believed by all supporters of the GHE? (p. 35) This (twice as much) is not quite
true for the KT97 budget, but it is for the revised energy budget of Trenberth et al 2009.
I have discussed problems with these energy budgets in my critique of Slaying the Sky Dragon. What
Postma overlooks is that the energy in downwelling atmospheric radiation is derived not only from
terrestrial IR radiation, but also from absorbed solar radiation plus convected sensible and latent
heat of evaporation/condensation. These processes cool Earths surface by day and retard its
cooling by night.
Postma spends the next five pages or so calculating the prodigious quantities of sensible and latent
heat in the oceans and atmosphere, concluding: The latent heat component being on the order of
half of the total energy for water at 13C, means that there will be a significant barrier to cooling
below 0C as the current circulates through the poles, keeping these regions much warmer than
they would otherwise be. This of course will skew-high the characterization of the average global
surface temperature and thus provide an interpreted appearance of a GHE when there actually
is none. (p. 39)
He doesnt do the maths, however, to show how the heat got there or stays there without any
assistance from a GHE. As we saw earlier, the global mean temperature would be only 5C without
the GHE. Postma merely postulates sola solar and presents no evidence other than his rudimentary
model (on p. 43).
Of course the sun can heat the sunlit surface all by itself, but not enough for heat storage, and it is
powerless at night. Brehmers data demonstrates very nicely that heat storage is impossible without
a GHE. Of course the atmosphere doesnt generate heat (except for latent heat), but it slows the
radiative losses from Earths surface via clouds reflecting IR and via GHGs absorbing and re-radiating
some of it back to the surface. It thus helps to preserve the heat generated by insolation in much
the same way as a thermos keeps your coffee warm.
20
5. Conclusion
5.1. The fraud of simple-minded mathematics and sense-perception
This is essentially a reiteration of earlier arguments together with some sophistry to dance around
radiation, conduction and the first law of thermodynamics.
Whereas in radiation, electromagnetic (EM) energy is transmitted in both directions between two
separated sources, in conduction, thermal energy flows one way as heat between two contacting
bodies or regions with different temperatures. Whereas there is a net radiative transfer of EM
energy from the warmer radiating entity to the cooler one, Postma states: The two-way net
transfer postulate simply cannot work because it leads to the possibility that radiation from a
colder source can warm up a warmer object. (p. 47) You dont reject sound physics simply because
some people misinterpret it. He then puts the Claes Johnson twist on the same concept: Johnson
actually . . . explains that EM waves/photons are two-way, but the heat transfer mediated by EM
waves/photons is one-way. (ibid) In other words, there is indeed a two-way net transfer of EM
energy with a net gain by the cooler surface and net loss by the warmer one.
Postma then quotes Doug Cotton before presenting his own argument on atmospheric radiation:
We cannot distinguish certain parcels of energy for other equal parcels of energy exchanged in
the same location, as it is equivalent to no change having occurred at all. The only thing we can
detect is that when radiant energy of sufficient power is absorbed, it will induce an increase in
temperature until equilibrium is achieved. We know that the area of the warmer Plank curve
above that of the cooler curve must be involved and be responsible for the heat transfer and
temperature increase, but the mutually corresponding areas of the Plank curves for the two
bodys emissions either may, or may not, be exchanged and have the same effect which is no
effect. The cool portion of the radiation may or may not travel between the bodies and be
exchanged, and it really doesnt matter which option occurs because they are indistinguishable
from each other. (p. 49, emphasis mine)
Well, it matters a great deal if one of the bodies is radiatively NOT THERE at all. Outer space is not
cold, but neither is it warm. It supplies almost no background radiation and provides no barrier at all
to radiative cooling. Without IR-emitting gases in the atmosphere, the surface would receive no
cool portion of its radiation spectrum, all terrestrial radiation would be lost to space and the
surface would therefore cool much faster, especially at night.
Whereas the solar spectrum is quite different from Earths, with very little IR overlap, because of the
vastly different temperatures, there is relatively very little difference between Earths surface and its
atmosphere. According to Kirchhoffs Law, therefore, the surface will absorb all atmospheric IR it
wont reflect any of it. And the first law of thermodynamics demands that that EM energy does not
simply vanish when absorbed, but is converted to thermal energy. Of course that cant warm a
surface that is losing energy faster than it is receiving it, but it sure reduces the net loss and thus the
rate of cooling. The outer layer of a thermos cant warm your coffee, but reflects almost the same
EM energy as it receives. Does that mean it has no effect or that it really doesnt matter? Take it
away, then, and see how long your coffee stays hot!
If you dont believe that background radiation from cooler sources makes any difference, do the
following simple experiment. Hold one hand about 5cm above a kitchen bench at room
temperature (about 298K or ~10C below that of your hand) and the other hand about 5cm above a
block of ice (273K) a little larger than your hand and placed on a corner of the table so that the
cooled air around it can easily descend. Your hand above the ice will soon feel cooler because it
21
receives less background radiation than the hand above the bench. If you now replace the ice with a
bowl of liquid nitrogen (at 77K) your hand will soon feel even colder because it is receiving even less
background radiation. If you want to be objective, attach a thermocouple to your hand and record
the temperature changes.
Regardless of its intensity or wavelength, background radiation always matters, simply because it is
there. We are so used to it that we only become aware of it when it isnt there. If you could expose
your naked body to space, you would lose about 500 W/m
2
(or ~1,000W for the average man) and
cool very rapidly. Even an insulating space suit has to be warmed. Without GHGs, Earths naked
surface would radiate 390 W/m
2
directly to space and likewise cool more rapidly, especially at night.
Postma nevertheless points out that: Cooling at the surface is enhanced by the atmosphere during
both day and night, rather than retarded. The top 10 meters or so of a square meter column of soil
holds more heat, and holds it at a higher temperature, than the entire 10,000 kg of atmosphere
going from the surface to outer space. (p. 50)
Yes, the atmosphere does conductively cool the ground by day and to a much lesser extent at night.
As Brehmers data shows, the temperature difference at night is very small and often reverses for a
short time after sunrise. But radiative energy transfer is not conductive; and besides, atmospheric
radiation does not warm the surface at night, but merely retards its radiative cooling.
As scientists, we need to be careful in distinguishing radiation from conduction, EM energy
transmission from heat flow and warming from reduced cooling. These are often confused on both
sides of the GHE-debate. Once we get the terminology right and consistently clarify our usage of it,
we can begin meaningful discussions.
5.2. A Note on the Human Mind
This is more about philosophy than science. In matters of science, we need to let the evidence and
the reasoning shape the philosophy, not the reverse. We need to first get the science right.
This is the only point in the entire critique (apart from my introduction) to which Postma responded:
This represents the typically illiterate state of mind of most so-called scientists today. Where does
science come from? Science comes from philosophy! This anti-intellectual, a-logical, materialist
edifice of philosophically illiterate post-modern science is precisely why, presumably with a perfectly
straight face and totally unawares, that so-called scientists can state that the atmospheric GHE
causes heating but is impossible to observe because the atmosphere is such a strong coolant(!).
Yes, the flat-earth notion came from philosophy, but science turned that on its head. Notions of the
cause of melancholia and blood-letting practices also came from the philosophy about four
humours, but science has thankfully changed our philosophy. The question is whether Postma will
permit science to shape his philosophy. I will let the reader decide whether his last sentence is an
accurate portrayal of my critique of his paper, or a rhetorical sophism to hide his fundamental failure
to factor conduction and convection into his formula 16 and Carl Brehmers experiment. I will also
let the reader decide whether Postma has demonstrated the absence of a GHE or otherwise.
Postscript 2.1.13
Empirical evidence for a greenhouse effect is provided by Carl Brehmer and Joe Postma, in a
discussion paper purporting to show the Absence of a Measureable Greenhouse Effect, found at:
http://principia-scientific.org/publications/Absence_Measureable_Greenhouse_Effect.pdf
22
Carl Brehmer monitored insolation, ground and air temperature every half-hour in June 2012 at
Chino Valley in Arizona, and Joe plotted his data for June 21 and 22 (Days 1 and 2 resp.) in figure 11.
This shows that the ground temperature exceeded the insolation temperature (corrected for albedo)
for the whole of Day 1, except for a brief period at peak insolation, when they both reached 345K.
Joe interpreted this as evidence that there was no additional warming from atmospheric radiation or
GHE. But he completely overlooked conduction (fancy that!) both to the atmosphere and to the
subsoil. Evaporative cooling would have been negligible in that arid location.
From the limited data available, I estimated conductive losses at the surface to exceed 150W/m
2
at
345K. The only possible source of extra energy for this conductive loss (additional to the radiative
loss calculated from the S-B equation at 345K) is atmospheric radiation. This is less than half
Trenberths 333W/m2 (2009 Energy Budget), but still very significant. It would be lower than the
average given the altitude (4,701 ft) and very dry air over Brehmers monitoring station.
Rather than acknowledging his mistake, Joe Postma called my critique a joke, and stated: Youre
not offering up mistakes, youre offering obfuscations.
All that exists anymore are semantic word arguments for what people imagine and want it to do.
Wes, conduction is not an active cooling force like you find from a refrigeration pump cycle.
Conduction is simply the spreading out of heat energy gained from some source, it doesnt actively
cause cooling. . . . Youre saying atmospheric radiation, from a colder atmosphere, conducted into
the sub-surface. First, radiation doesnt conduct . . Heat flows from hot to cool automatically and
this doesnt require sustained input. . . . Conduction is not an active cooling process. In this case
conduction is a natural flow from hot to cool given the solar input which heats the surface.
Conduction here is not the introduction of cold material to a warmer location. Long-wave from the
atmosphere can in no way, shape, or form, induce the same or similar heating action as the short-
wave solar input.
I will let others judge who is obfuscating and using semantics. Joe would have us believe that
passive conduction doesnt cool the surface or require sustained energy input! Anyone who looks
at Joes figure 11 will see that the surface is warmer than it should be (from insolation alone) for
almost the entire Day 1, especially as the sun sinks and the (extra) stored thermal energy in the
subsoil returns to the surface.
Had Joe thought about this as a scientist, instead of as a sophist, he might have considered surface
emissivity. With an emissivity of less than 1, the ground would lose less radiation than indicated by
its temperature, and so there might be some spare energy for conduction, as well as for radiation.
Perhaps Carl might want to do some further work on this in order to more accurately quantify the
atmospheric radiative energy required to meet the conductive losses at the surface.
23
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