1

.


. 2
(), - ,
-
(, , , ,
, ) 7 1994-2004
.
I.

.
,

. ,
, ,
.
,
?,
?,
, ,
,

,
.

, - ,

, - Panel
.
2 " "-
,

, . 3
(
)-

1

,
.
2
,
, ,
, , ,
.

-1-

, , ,
,
. , -
, panel
. 4 ,
.
II.
2.1 ,

" "- 1993 5 10-
" " . :
" - ,

."
" -
, (
, )-
."
" -
, 20-

."
" ()-


".3


2
( ) (
)- .

2.2
- ,
.
Borensztein (1998), Carkovic, Levine (2002), Alfaro (2001) crosssection
.

.
, Borensztein
(1998) 69
()- -
-
3

. (2003)

-2-

4 . De Mello (1999)
, (OECD)-
.
Reisen Soto (2001) , -
.
,
.
FDIGDP
.
(K) (H), (L)- () , :

Y = F ( AK ; AH ; AL )

(1)
(1) ,
, ,
. (2)

(- )
.

K& A& H& A& L& A&

Y&
K&
H&
L&
A&
= + + + + + = + + + ( + + )
(2)
Y
K
H
L
A
K A H A L A
, - , -
, ( + + ) -
, ,
,
, .5
: FDI A , (AK ), (AH ), (AL )Y FDI Y .

, ,
, ( ), ,
,
.


. ,
,
, - .
GDP FDI .

2.3

4
Likewise, Xu (2000) - -
.
5
, K, H-
, K,H-
AK,AH,AL
.

-3-

 () -
. 2.2
-
. -
- ?, - -
? .
- (log(GDP)) - -
(FDI/GDP) 2 (Bi-Variate
Vector Autoregressive-VAR) . - , , Transition Report 2002, 2004
World Investment Report 2005- 7 11 (1994-2004)
panel . . :
x it =[log(GDPit ), FDI it GDPit ] ,
i - (i=1,...,N), t- (t=1,...,T). x it
VAR :6
x it = A1i x it 1 + A 2 i x it 2 + i + i t + t + it
(1)

A ji - ( 2 2 ) ,

i i - ( 21 )
, t - ( 21 ) , ,
, , it - ( 21 )
, iid (0, i ) ,
. panel
u it = i + i t + t + it . i

, i
. t
, i
t . it
.
-
:
H 0 ( FDI GDP ):a12 ( ji ) = 0,
j =1, 2
(2)
a12 ( ji ) = 0 A ji (1,2) .
- .
- :
H 0 (GDP FDI ):a 21( ji ) = 0,

j =1, 2

(3)

2-
VAR . VAR(2)
.

-4-

 , -
. Zhang
(2001) 11 time series
(error correction model) -
. 6

. Nair-Reichert
Weinhold (2001) 24 1971-1995 panel
.

.
- -
VAR error- correction :
x it = 1i x it 1 + i x it 1 + i + i t + t + it
(4)

= A 1i + A 2 i I , 1i = A 2 i .7
i
log(GDP)- ( )
- . Error -correction
:
H 0 ( FDI GDP ) : 12 = 0 and 12 = 0, j =1, 2
(5)
H 0 (GDP FDI ) : 21 = 0 and 12 = 0, j =1, 2
(Zhang (2001) Basu (2003))
2 .

( 12 = 0, 21 = 0 )

( 12 = 0, 21 = 0 ) .

(5)
, (neutrality)
( 12 = 0, 21 = 0 )
. (neutrality) ,

. (1) moving average
:
(6)
x = C i ( i + i t ) + C i ( L ) (t + it ) + (initial condition )
it

- -

c 12 ( i ) -

.

.
(4)
moving average (6)-

(1)- (4)-
.

-5-


):

C i = i1

1
=
i

22 ( i )

21( i )

(C

12 ( i )

11( i )

(7)

neutrality : 12 ( i ) = 0 c 12 ( i ) = 0
- .8

(- - ,
- - ),
- 1 -
.
III.

3.1
3.1.1 ,

, .
, , -
9 1990-2004 1- .
- -
-
, "
"-
.
1- 1992
, ,
,

. ,

, ,
, ,
,
15
. , 1990 - 11.8 %
1991 8.2% 1992 1.7%- .
1993 " " ,
,

8

21( i ) = 0

- - neutrality .

-
. ,
.
9

-6-

 .
30
, - 10 12.3%-
,
, (
) 0.7%
.
1993 , - 23.2%, 1994 19.2%, 1995 16.6%
1994 9.3%, 1995 7.8%

1994 1.5%, 1995
3.3% .

.
1996 5.7%, 1997 4.0%, 1998 5.0%,
1999 10.0% 1993-1998
1999
63.3%-,
36.0%- .
2000
,

, , ,
, , ,
,
. -
2000-2004 26.5-29.2%- . 2000


61.2-93.5%- . 2004

2004 10.6%
, - .

, -
.
-
,
.
10

-7-

 1. , , - , 1990-2004 *
- (%)
,

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

3 383.9
3 928.7
5 052.5
45 200.0
62 214.8
91 527.0
135 250.9
180 300.0
207 956.1
257 342.3
284 733.5
309 530.4
329 270.2
426 660.3
501 876.0

()

1 237.2
970.1
946.8
5 000.0
9 714.8
13 200.0
8 385.9
19 000.0
25 513.4
24 484.8
37 442.4
40 870.3
44 215.5
55 028.7
69 021.7

378.9
267.8
1 702.8
4 400.0
3 900.0
9 000.0
5 034.9
8 000.0
13 001.6
11 005.2
22 700.0
11 018.4
22 639.0
29 822.6
57 499.9

534.2
1 132.2
1 592.9
11 800.0
18 500.0
26 617.0
39 404.9
40 000.0
69 861.1
75 663.2
56 554.2
55 736.2
52 136.1
67 679.5
134 841.5

(%)
1 233.6
1 558.6
810.0
24 000.0
30 100.0
42 710.0
82 425.2
113 300.0
99 580.0
146 189.1
168 036.9
200 905.5
210 279.6
274 129.5
240 513.0

32.3
20.8
10.7
23.2
19.2
16.6
20.9
21.7
25.4
27.8
27.9
27.7
26.5
29.2
27.8

(%)

()

11.8
5.1
2.0
2.6
3.0
2.4
1.3
2.3
3.1
2.6
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.8

3.6
1.4
3.6
2.3
1.2
1.6
0.8
1.0
1.6
1.2
2.2
1.0
1.8
2.0
3.2

5.1
6.0
3.4
6.1
5.7
4.8
6.1
4.8
8.5
8.2
5.6
5.0
4.2
4.6
7.5

(%)
(%)
11.8
8.2
1.7
12.3
9.3
7.8
12.7
13.6
12.2
15.8
16.5
18.0
16.9
18.8
13.3

~
~
~
0.7
1.5
3.3
5.7
4.0
5.0
10.0
10.1
12.1
15.8
15.8
~

:
: *- -
() .
-8-

 /
2- .
2. / (FDI/GDP)- .

1994
1.2
0.6
1.3
3.1
1.5
2.7
0.6
1995
2.0
0.2
-0.3
5.7
3.3
9.9
1.0
1996
1.1
1.8
0.7
2.4
5.7
5.0
2.0
1997
3.2
6.7
1.5
4.7
4.0
3.8
2.2
1998
11.8
5.3
1.3
5.2
5.0
3.4
3.2
1999
6.7
2.1
1.5
3.0
10.0
3.5
4.1
2000
5.5
4.3
0.8
-0.4
10.1
2.3
5.1
2001
3.3
2.5
1.1
1.4
12.1
4.0
3.6
2002
4.7
3.9
0.8
1.6
15.8
4.3
2.0
2003
4.9
7.8
0.8
0.9
15.8
0.6
1.9
2004
5.8
10.3
2.0
5.7
12.1
3.6
2.2
: , European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD),
"Transition report 2002 and 2004"
*-, " "-
.

2- 1994-1998 , -
()-
(, , , ), (,
) - 1.5-5.0 1999
10
.
()- /
1.7-2.0 2000-2004
/ 3.3-5.8 , 2000-2002
2.5-4.3 , 2003-2004 7.8-10.3 , 20002003 0.9- 1.6 2004 5.7 .
-
.

1996-2001 2.3-5.0
, 2.0-5.1 .
/- 1993-1995 0.7-3.3 , 1996-1998
4.0-5.7 1999-2004 10.0-15.8
. : 1980-1990
6.7 , 4.9 ,
12.6 , ( )
13.5 2000-2004 22.3
, 18.7 , 36.0 ,
( ) 35.8 .11

/- .
2000-2004
37.5 , 48.8 ,
11

: UNCTAD, FDI database

-9-

 38.0 , 23.5 .
/ .
3.1.2 : ,
(
, , ) ( : ,
, ) 1-
. 1993-2000
62.8% 25.4% ,
36.8%- 43.3% .


15.6%- 13.1% .
9.7% 4.3%

.

16.0%- 59.0%
.

5.7%- 63.3% .
2000

25.4%- 35.7%
43.3%- 51.8
% .

59.0%- 64.3%

. 2004


26.9%-
27.7 11.5%-
.12

,
, ,

.
,
,
. 2004
,
12

2004 37.2 606.8

516.6
. 16.8% .

- 10 -

 ,

.
3.1.3




.
2
3- . 3- 1990 ,
(89.7%), , , ,
(10.3%) 1993
. 1991-1993
2.1-3.4 .
(5.3-25.3%), (18.0-39.7%),
(0.8-44.7%), - (2.327.9%), , (5.9%)-
.
1994-1996 3.4 . 53.6
.
1994 , ,
,
7.1-21.5 % 5.1-25.0%%,
15.8-18.8% ,
.
1996-2000
1996-1998 (36.2-42.3%),
, (9.9-16.1%)

. 1997
18.0-42.3% . (,
) - 1999 19.2 ., 2000 27.1
. 22.1% 29.0%-
1999,
2000 9.6% 12.3 % .

- .13

13

- 62.9 , 33.6
, 28.8
, 55,5 , 26.6 , 19.8
, 60.7 , 35.4
. /UNCTAD, World Investment Report 1999/

- 11 -

 3. : , 1990-2004 *
( (%))

,
, ,
,

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

9.40

21.48

7.81

36.15

42.34

28.77

17.97

46.38

22.01

76.33

62.29

89.69
~

25.28
~

5.25
39.69

10.60
18.00

9.16
24.98

2.43
5.07

2.68
22.46

18.00
3.70

7.79
10.49

5.90
22.07

5.92
28.97

4.20
4.02

51.22
1.65

3.51
2.39

15.81
8.86

0.84

14.14

44.70

15.81

18.79

16.83

3.24

4.92

9.55

12.34

5.10

0.17

0.21

1.42

4.74

0.95

12.55

4.37

8.37

9.90

16.11

6.56

8.68

6.64

3.42

1.21

1.28

0.05

8.18

0.60

0.21

2.51

0.75

16.06

2.29

0.06

1.03

0.00
~

26.30
~

1.30
~

1.63
1.31

3.63
1.67

3.44
28.39

2.00
3.37

6.73
0.18

1.40
0.01

4.30
3.54

6.79
0.08

0.47
0.13

0.66
0.25

1.16
2.08

0.77
0.50

10.36

2.04

5.74

2.26

2.52

0.82

0.73

3.07

5.56

0.11

1.96

1.21

0.39

14.28

2.83

3.01

1.40

2.81

8.14

1.63

2.50

1.40

0.29

1.71

0.37

0.19

~
~
~
~

27.93
0.86
0.00

0.26
2.26
0.00
4.04

2.18
5.07
0.29
5.85

5.01
0.24
0.00
0.15

0.76
0.71
2.23
1.01

14.52
1.54
0.21
0.10

0.60
3.26
0.63
0.36

0.65
3.10
1.18
0.36

0.24
3.82
0.06
1.07

0.32
0.27
1.98
0.71

0.08
0.67
0.91
0.89

0.41
0.20
0.11
0.51

0.42
0.04
0.13
0.26

0.18
0.11
0.09
0.04

2.37

0.52

1.75

1.19

0.37

0.52

0.73

2.59

1.62

0.54

0.07

0.11

0.24

0.02

1.00

0.97

0.75

0.13

0.39

0.50

0.06

0.02

0.01

0.02

1.84

2.01

0.58

0.03

1.40

0.02

0.11

0.44

0.03

0.00

0.01

0.09

0.01

1.22

0.03

0.07

0.16

2.19

0.01

0.03

0.00

0.03

0.01

11.68

2.62

0.58

0.02

0.01

0.21

0.05

0.05

0.08

0.18

0.01

~
100.0

~
100.0

13.78
100.0

0.77
100.0

5.67
100.0

5.59
100.0

3.63
100.0

6.02
100.0

4.05
100.0

3.37
100.0

7.14
100.0

13.85
100.0

13.21
100.0

10.03
100.0

6.97
100.0

, ,
,

, ,

,
,

:
*-, " "-
.

- 12 -

2001

.
2001-2004 56.9 -147.6 . 2.5
, 22.0-76.3%
. , 2002 89.5 .
51.2%-
2004 15.8%- .
2001-2003 2004 21.0 .
8.9%- .


,
.
(17.8-72.3%),
(4.2-51.2%), (1.7-29.0%),
, (1.2-16.1%),
(0.2-12.3%), (0.1-16.1%)
.


.
3- .



1996 190
2003 653 , 2004 732
.
,
.

16-34 .
, 2001 96 , 2002
115 , 2003 217 .
3-

, ,
,

, ,
.
1996- 2002

1
2002

.
,
- 13 -

 1

,
,
.

4-
1996- 2003 49.9 . 194.3
93.1-98.7 % .
, , , ,

1%
.

( 6- )
1996 175

2003 639 .

, , ,

1-8
1 .

7- . 1990
,
70 .
(0.1-135.3
.), (0.01-120.1 .), (1.3-23.0 .), (0.0717.1 .), (0.09-10.3 .), (0.03-6.4 .)
.

,
.

-
,

-
(56-322)
(17-125)
.

3.2 ,


, ,

- 14 -


.
3.2.1 ,


,
,

.
, ,



,
,
.
,

5- . 1996
,
,
. 1997-2003 -
37.5%- 20.1%
-
2000-2002
37.8%- 54.6%
, 21.0%- 24.6%
, , , 7.7%- 13.9% ,
1.6%- 3.8 % ,
2.7%- 4.5 % .
2004 -
- 21.3%,
28.2%- , 50.6
.
, , ,

,
. 2005 8 ,
66.4%, 20.7%,
, 12.9 %
.
4- - , ,
-,
.

- 15 -

 4. -
.

1994

58.9

79.3

93.7

50.6

97.1

107.8

51.5

96.4

127.5

102.1

115.7

140.8
179.0

1995

74.9

159.4

300.7

80.9

129.4

194.1

40.4

137.0

196.9

142.7

197.2

1996

64.2

152.0

346.8

108.2

140.7

292.1

43.9

184.4

206.6

87.4

179.8

143.3

1997

82.1

233.2

341.6

86.8

132.6

237.7

63.3

157.5

165.2

116.4

159.5

168.4

1998

91.7

238.2

441.0

94.0

116.4

237.3

57.1

126.2

171.3

81.4

146.7

163.2

1999

68.1

146.7

309.2

70.3

94.7

173.2

57.8

92.7

119.7

74.9

134.5

154.2

2000

90.3

133.1

435.6

52.0

98.8

215.2

67.4

98.9

122.9

84.4

112.2

188.8

2001

84.5

143.5

465.0

43.1

91.8

171.1

82.5

136.4

102.1

83.5

94.1

200.3

2002

91.0

141.7

501.3

46.5

101.0

182.5

71.1

114.9

148.0

100.1

92.1

252.8

2003

113.6

173.4

567.1

82.6

139.0

173.4

126.9

100.4

272.2

2004

166.3

125.6

297.8

: , European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD),

"Transition report 2002 and 2004"

4- -
90.8-121.2 .
.
, -
,

.
492.2
4-
.
, ,

.
14 5-
. 1996-1997 - 4.4%- 4.3%-
-3.2%- -3.3%
, 6.1% 5.6% ,
(-13.8%)-(-15.0%)
4.9%-8.5% 1996 , ,
11.2%, 42.2%,
4.0% 1997
, 17.1%, , ,
5.8%, 4.1% .
1998-2001 - 6.4%- -19.0%

1998, 2001 3.8%-16.2%-
4.9%- 10.1% , 3.2%-
31.8% 1998
-0.1% 2000 18.6%, 2001 8.2 %
, -3.1%- 10.1%
, , 1998 7.4%, 2000 25.2%%,
14

, .(1995 )

- 16 -

2001 14.9% - .
1998 3.5% 2001 1.0%


2000- 2001 -

- 1998 70.3 %, 1999
52.3%, 2000 -552.0% 2001 -630.8%
.
5. , , 1996-2005.VIII*
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2.4
4.4
, ,
4.4
-3.2
,
6.1

-13.8
,
0.7
,

2.6
4.9

4.0
4.3
4.3
-3.3
5.6
-15.0

3.5
6.4
6.4
3.8
4.9
3.2

3.2
4.2
4.2
1.1
3.2
-2.8

1.1
-14.4
-14.4
1.6
6.1
-3.3

1.0
-19.0
-19.0
16.2
10.1
31.8

4.0 5.6
-10.7 5.8
-10.7 5.8
5.4 3.0
-6.9 -1.3
22.1 2.1

0.4

3.2

4.6

0.4

3.5

3.9

-2.7
8.5

-1.1
-0.1

1.6
3.6

-14.6
18.6

0.3

17.1

-3.1

1.3

6.8
11.2

0.2
5.8

0.5
7.4

42.2

-26.7

4.2

,

,
, ,

, ,

, ,



,

2003

2004 2005 VIII

10.6
18.9
18.9
15.4
31.9
1.5

~
~
~
-8.3
6.6
-27.3

1.1

6.3

2.6

10.8
8.2

18.5 47.6
12.2 7.1

0.3
4.0

~
~

25.7

10.1

13.3

7.1

2.8

8.7
6.1

13.2
25.2

-6.9
14.9

4.6 0.5
16.2 13.9

6.6
9.0

~
~

-33.0

39.9

7.0

22.4

7.3

33.6

20.2

-2.4

8.4

-4.7

12.5

7.1

25.2 30.6

3.1

3.5

2.2

1.9

1.5

3.5

-5.7

-0.4

-2.5

-9.7

4.0

4.1

6.8

4.6

3.2

1.3

4.9

-5.5

2.5

4.4

3.0

1.4

3.1

-2.7

7.4

2.9

-2.4

-0.6

0.8

6.2

5.3

0.5

57.1

10.4

49.2

-0.1

1.6

15.6

-7.5

-16.6

7.0

30.5

27.1

1.6

27.4

11.3

*- 2005 8
.
:

2002-2004 2002 4.0%, 2003

5.6%, 2004 10.6%-
- 2002
2003 5.6%, 2004 18.9% .
2002 5.4%, 2003 3.0%
2004 15.4 % . ,
2002-2003 , 2004 31.9 %, 2005 8
6.6% 2002 22.1%,
2003 2.1%, 2004 1.5 % 2005 8
-27.3% .
- 17 -

 2005
-36.7%- .
2002 12.2%, 2003 7.1%, 2004 4.0 %

, 13.3%- 2.8% ,
, , 16.2%- 9.0 %
.
3 2002
- -72.1%, ,
-24.9% 53.3%-,
,
76.8%, , , , 42.3 %-
4.0%- 2003- 2004 -
24.1-42.1% .
2003 5.6%- - , ,
, ,
, , 2004 10.6
- , ,

, , , .
3.2.2 ,

,

3.1.3
, 3.2.1
, .
1- -

- , .
-
.

1. (FDI) - , 1991-2004
()
(FDI)-

250
200

15
10
5

150
0
100
-5

50

-10

0
-50

300

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-15

: -

- 18 -


.
- 1997
- 1990
, ,
, -
,
.
- ,
, -
,
.
,
, , ,
.
,
( )
1997 1.3 . , 1998
1.4 , 1999 3.3 1997
11 , 1998 19 , 1999 14
2000
. ( 2, 3- .)
- 1997-1999 4.3%, 6.4%, 4.2%
7- -
1993-2004 0.25
.
- ,
.

6. - - 15
-


0.25
0.29
0.29
: - - 1993-2004

. ,
2000 16.8
., 2001 56.9 ., 2002 38.5 .
2003 150.2 ., 2004 147.6 .

16-38
2000 6.1%, 2001 10.1%-
2002 -6.9%, 2003 -1.3% 2004 31.9% , 2005
8 6.6% .

- -
0.25 ,
0.29 ,
0.29 .
15

- 19 -


1995-2004 0.29

. 2004


(1997
" " ) ,
.
1997

3-5 .
2.9-27.1
. 6-37
0.3-11.6
. 3-23

1999-2000 2001-2002
31.8-22.1% 2003-2004 2.1-1.5% .
2-3
.
,
.

, ,
1997-2001 3.6-7.3 . 4496 2002 89.5
. 115 2003 6.9
., 2004 37.5 2003 217
2002

.
1997 17.1%, 1998-1999 -3.1-1.3%,
2000 25.7%- 2001 10.1%, 2002 13.3% 2003
7.1%, 2004 2.8%-
, 1997-1998 0.2-0.5%, 1999-2000
8.7-13.2% 2001 -6.9% 2002
4.6%, 2003 0.5% 2003 6.6%- .
,

1995-2004 0.29

. 1999-2000

, 2002

1
,
. ,
3.1.3
,
- 20 -


.


, , , ,
,
.

.
,
,
, , ,
, ,
,
, , ,


.

, ,
, ,
, .
,
, ,
, , ,
.

3.3 - 16
2.3- -
, -
- .
panel . Panel

()- ,
- , , , ,
, 7 1994-2004
.17 Panel
,
.

16

, , Eviews 5.0 .
panel
, .
9- fixed effect-,
cross-section weigths,
cross-section SUR (PCSE) panel .

Panel 1990 1990

1994
.

17

- 21 -

3.3.1 Time series

-
Time series . Panel
panel
7- .
7. Panel

I ***
(Level)**

Log(GDP)
FDI/GDP
dLog(GDP)
d(FDI/GDP)
H0: (common)
Levin, Li& Chu t
H0 *

Breiting t-stat
H0 *

H0:
(individual)
Pesaran and Shin W-stat
H0 *

ADF-Fisher Chi-square
H0 *

PP-Fisher Chi-square
H0 *
H0:
(common)
Hadri Z-stat
H0 *

-7.64
[0.000]
2.02
[0.978]

-1.33
[0.092]
-0.97
[0.167]

-8.74
[0.000]
-6.04
[0.000]

-5.91
[0.000]
-3.80
[0.000]

-1.92
[0.027]
35.33
[0.001]
45.54
[0.000]

0.56
[0.714]
13.45
[0.491]
10.33
[0.738]

79.56
[0.000]
93.51
[0.000]

55.52
[0.000]
70.07
[0.000]

3.63
[0.000]

3.21
[0.001]

*- Fisher- 2 .
.
**- (level) (
) . SIC
0- 1 .
***- I
( ) (none) .
SIC 0- 1 .

7- - - -
(level)

.
.
(level)
Johansen 8-
.

8. Panel
(Johansen ), 7 1994-2004
Log(GDP)=F(FDI/GDP)

H0


5 %-

-
5 %-

- 22 -

r=0

r=1

0.166
15.69*
(12.32)
[0.013]
10.14
(11.22)

0.095
5.56*
(4.13)
[0.022]
5.56*
(4.13)

[0.077]

[0.022]

*- 5%- - 0
. 5%- 2
.
.
MacKinnon-*Haung-Michelis (1999) p- .

8- log(GDPit ), FDI it GDPit 5 %-

2 ()
.
, (1)
VAR (errorcorrection) (4)-
(5) ,
(7) .

3.3.2 log(GDP ), FDI it GDPit

it
9- (4)-

(fixed
effect)

log(GDP ), FDI it GDPit .

it
9. Log(GDP) FDI/GDP

(fixed effects)

(1a)
(1b)

dlog(GDP)
d(FDI/GDP)
dlog(GDP)(t-1)
t-c

d(FDI/GDP)(t-1)
t-c

log(GDP)(t-1)
t-c

(FDI/GDP)(t-1)
t-c

Granger causality
(H0 )

Neutrality

-0.187
[2.58]
-0.719
[4.17]
-0.331
[4.68]
0.523
[3.05]

-0.019
[0.61]
0.669
[4.19]
-0.019
[0.49]
-0.814
[4.82]

0.0003

0.6323

0.0035

0.6284

(H0 )

Granger causality- wald FDI/GDP log(GDP)-

0: c(1)=c(4)=0, log(GDP) FDI/GDP- 0:
c(2)=c(3)=0 .
Neutrality - wald
FDI/GDP log(GDP)- 0:c(4)=0, log(GDP) FDI/GDP-
0: c(3)=0 .

9- log(GDP ), FDI it GDPit 5 %-

it
FDI/GDP -
. - -
-
. .
(neutrality)-
FDI/GDP -

- 23 -

log(GDP ), FDI it GDPit

it
log(GDP)=F(FDI/GDP)
C
. c12
- 1.89 .
, , , , ,
, ,
-
.
- 1 - 1.87
.

Henrik Hansen John Rand (2004) 31

( 10 , 11 , 10 ) 1970-2000
31
- . Henrik Hansen John Rand
(2004)
- 1 2.25
0.38
.
IV. ,
1999 (
- 26.5-29.2% )

61.2-93.5%- .

.
,

,
,

.
2000-2004
(17.8-72.3%), (4.2-51.2%),
(1.7-29.0%), ,
(1.2-16.1%), (0.2-12.3%),
, (0.1-16.1%)
.
1998-2004
, , , , ,
. c
-
,

- (56-322)

(17-125)
- 24 -

 .
2003 5.6%- - ,
, ,
, , ,
2004 10.6 - ,
,
, , ,
. 2004

(1997 " "
) ,
.
- - -
0.25, , 0.29, ,
0.29

.

,
1 ,
2-3 , ,
3-5 .
-
, - , , ,
, , panel
- - -
- .
- 1 - 1.87

0.38 .

,
. (2003), " "
(1993 5 10), "
"
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, "Transition report 2002"
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, "Transition report 2004"
Worldbank, "World Investment report 2005"
Henrik Hansen and John Rand (2004), "On the Causal Links between FDI and Growth in
Developing Countries"
Rajneesh Narula & Brian Portelli (2004), "Foreign direct investment and economic development:
Opportunities and limitations from a developing country perspective"
Manuel R.Agosin and Ricardo Mayer (2000), "Foreign Investment in Developing Countries:
- 25 -

Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?"

Alfaro L.,Areendam, C., K. and Selin,s. (2001). "FDI and Economic growth: The role of local
financial markets" Working paper 01-083. Cambridge MA: Harvard Business School
Borenzstein, E., De Gregoria, J. and Lee, J.W (1998) How does foreign direct investment affect
economic growth? , Journal of International Economics
Carkovic, M. and Levine, R. (2002). "Does Foreign Direct investment Accelerate Economic
Growth?", Working Paper Series, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
De Mello, L.R.Jr (1999)."Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series
and Panel Data", Oxford Economic Review,
Reisen, H and Soto, M. (2001). "Wich Types of Capital Inflows Foster Developing-Country
Growth", International Finance,
Basu, P., Chakraborty, C. and Reagle, D. (2003). "Liaberalization, FDI, and Growth in
Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach", Economic Inquiry,
Nair-Reichert, U. and Weinhold, D. (2001). "Causality tests for Cross-Country Panels: A New
look on FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries", Oxford Bulletin of Economics
and Statistics,
www.adb.org- Statistic of Mongolia
1.
:
(%)

:
(%)

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

66.2
67.4
61.8
62.8
50.3
56.7
45.4
35.4
30.3
28.4
25.4
29.3
39.9
39.8
35.7

24.3
27.5
39.3
36.8
42.8
38.8
35.6
41.2
45.0
59.0
43.3
44.9
50.6
50.1
51.8

9.6
7.8
4.2
0.4
6.9
4.5
19.0
23.5
24.7
13.0
31.3
25.8
9.5
10.1
12.5

()

36.6
24.7
18.7
11.1
15.6
14.4
6.2
10.5
12.3
9.5
13.1
13.2
13.4
12.9
13.8

11.2
6.8
33.7
9.7
6.3
9.8
3.7
4.4
6.3
4.3
8.0
3.6
6.9
7.0
11.5

15.8
28.8
31.5
26.1
29.7
29.1
29.1
22.2
33.6
29.4
19.9
18.0
15.8
15.9
26.9

36.5
39.7
16.0
53.1
48.4
46.7
60.9
62.8
47.9
56.8
59.0
64.9
63.9
64.3
47.9

- 26 -

 2. : , 1990-2004 *

( .)

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

, ,
,

1,049

8,292

4,190

14,760

19,441

24,995

16,842

56,937

38,476

150,232

147,623

865

533

100

363

1,022

939

1,437

7,347

3,579

5,124

5,545

5,154

89,543

6,915

37,472

757

617

2,786

1,956

12,048

1,510

4,818

19,175

27,147

4,933

2,885

4,708

21,009

18

270

1,531

1,763

7,255

9,029

1,322

2,259

8,297

11,559

6,260

296

408

3,376

100

33

1,400

1,689

4,488

4,042

7,398

5,695

8,135

8,149

5,985

2,390

3,040

21

4,385

246

96

2,179

701

19,713

4,002

125

2,453

554

25

56

405

1,329

1,071

2,749

642

3,739

6,367

582

1,154

2,284

1,815

45

187

10,964

1,805

73

3,078

75

160

442

4,091

1,185

100

70

640

874

1,354

336

336

2,664

5,208

138

3,430

2,391

929

272

97

336

540

1,509

3,322

750

2,170

1,310

351

2,996

736

445

75

558

295

7,790

243

300

213

304

97

719

826

435

, ,

~
~

589
18

43
~

174
10

27
~

275
862

824
113

1,332
258

1,423
540

3,315
50

253
1,852

825
1,113

346
197

86
257

251
205

77

200

17

390

51

146

165

932

667

1,094

888

519

91

50

10

60

133

143

279

300

1,189

1,411

505

83

184

480

57

385

520

305

61

338

466

76

31

26

37

35

69

65

12

750

10

49

383

27

10

186

25

136

11

40

65

1,004

34

68

20

246

50

225

180

46

60

147

355

17

, ,
,

263

27

632

2,157

1,944

2,459

1,859

2,929

6,692

16,997

23,090

19,742

16,523

965

2,108

1,906

3,426

11,153

38,611

53,635

40,824

45,920

86,865

93,707

122,761

174,820

196,821

237,007

: , ~ . *-,
" "- .

- 27 -

 3. : , 1990-2004

1994

1995

17

22

52

60

52

44

96

115

217

15

30

44

40

43

28

28

35

35

10

21

38

28

34

27

23

16

24

~
~

~
~

4
4

3
4

4
6

11
11

23
5

22
6

20
15

33
37

16
29

10
20

11
6

5
12

12

17

15

23

15

19

19

~
~
~

~
2
1

1
1
3

2
1
2

4
6
2

5
14
6

10
14
9

2
21
11

10
8
19

7
11
14

9
11
7

3
3
9

19
2
3

46
6
4

10

17

11

11

, , ,

11

11

~
~

1
1

1
~

2
1

2
1

3
9

7
5

4
7

3
5

8
2

3
3

3
3

4
2

3
1

~
~
~
~
~

~
~
~
~
1

~
~
~
1
1

1
~
~
2
~

3
~
2
2
~

6
5
1
1
1

7
4
3
1
1

4
2
6
1
~

2
5
5
1
1

5
10
4
7
3

1
2
2
1
2

4
3
4
1
1

3
2
5
1
4

1
1
2
4
4

~
~

~
~

~
1

~
2

1
3

1
4

2
8

2
7

1
26

~
35

~
66

~
100

~
144

1
267

10

22

40

77

147

190

256

279

336

291

352

387

653

,
,

, ,
,

, ,

1990 1991 1992 1993

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

732

~ .
*-, " "- - .

- 28 -

 4. : *
( .)

829,826

1990 1991

1992 1993 1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

965

1,502

1,727 2,644 10,261

27,092

49,943

35,661

43,784

83,194

87,819

119,565 171,413

194,256

11,181
~

10,638
~

4,943
~

4,855
~

2,493
~
-
1,930
~

1,569
~

1,538
~

1,330
~

827
~

635
~
-
492
~

332
~

329
~

272
~

122
~

86
~

83
~

24
~

11
~

7
~

873,522
965
:

~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
606
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
2,108

34
6
176
6
639
25
11
342
~
~
~
~
~
70
~
7
17
~
~
~
~
~
50
112
~
70
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
103
~
3
~
17
~
~
116
~
~
20
~
~
~
~
16
~
~
~
3
~
~
~
~
~
11
~
~
~
1,906 3,426 11,153

1,762
4,408
72
4,754
3
142
~
17
74
~
~
173
31
~
~
~
70
5
4
~
7
38,611

2,947
127
223
~
19
30
~
35
62
122
~
~
~
~
24
23
~
68
12
~
~
53,635

48
3,252
1,138
~
~
624
~
13
16
23
29
~
~
~
10
12
~
~
~
~
~
40,824

110
35
17
~
721
80
980
20
70
~
~
~
~
39
41
9
~
7
6
~
~
45,920

1,010
82
139
50
~
403
589
105
143
592
~
~
275
173
112
~
~
~
~
~
~
86,865

1,675
361
1,918
~
1,029
174
~
586
19
91
~
~
7
~
20
10
~
~
~
~
~
93,707

656
1,408
1,350
248
6
451
51
~
~
650
316
138
~
~
392
183
473
~
~
~
~
177
39
~
~
~
~
~
~
64
~
~
~
~
~
1
1
~
~
~
~
122,761 174,820

1,350
130
605
~
~
~
~
321
109
~
~
~
~
~
45
5
~
~
~
~
~
196,821

~ .
*-, " "-
.

- 29 -

 5. - , , 1996-2005.VIII*
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005 VIII

43.8

35.9

37.5

37.0

29.1

24.9

20.7

20.1

21.3

, ,

43.8

35.9

37.5

37.0

29.1

24.9

20.7

20.1

21.3

,

,
,

21.3
10.4
5.9

26.2
14.3
6.6

20.8
8.4
5.8

20.6
8.6
5.9

21.9
11.5
6.1

22.1
9.0
8.1

22.5
10.1
6.3

25.4
12.7
6.2

28.2
17.3
5.3

100**
66.4
20.7

2.2

3.1

4.1

3.6

2.4

3.0

3.8

3.4

3.0

12.9

2.8
35.0

2.2
37.8

2.5
41.8

2.5
42.3

1.9
48.9

2.0
53.1

2.3
56.7

3.1
54.6

2.6
50.6

~
~

16.7

21.0

21.1

20.7

24.0

26.7

27.7

26.5

24.6

,
, ,

0.9
7.4

1.0
7.7

1.2
8.8

1.3
9.2

1.3
11.0

1.3
13.0

1.2
14.7

1.1
13.9

1.0
12.7

~
~

1.8

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.5

3.1

3.2

3.8

4.0

, ,

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.5

1.3

, ,

2.9

2.5

3.7

3.6

4.6

4.3

4.5

4.2

3.8

3.4

2.7

3.4

3.7

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.2

2.6

2.0

2.4

2.1

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.5

-1.7

-1.7

-1.7

-1.8

-2.4

-3.1

-2.9

-3.3

-3.2

*- - 2005 8 .
**-2005 8 - -
.
:

- 30 -

 6. : , *

1990

2830
2

41
~
-
28
~

28
~

23
~

18
~

18
~

8
~

7
~

7
~

7
~

5
~

4
~

3
~
-
3
~

3
~

2
~

2
~

2
~

1
~

1
~

1
~

3042
2
:

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

8
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
2
~
~
~
~
10

16
1
~
1
2
1
~
~
~
~
1
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
22

33
1
1
1
~
2
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
1
~
~
~
1
~
~
~
40

57
6
2
3
1
1
1
~
1
1
1
~
1
~
~
1
~
~
~
~
~
1
77

128
4
1
3
1
2
1
~
1
~
1
~
1
1
~
~
1
~
1
~
1
~
147

175
1
1
2
1
~
2
3
1
1
~
1
1
~
~
~
1
~
~
~
~
~
190

242
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
~
1
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
256

261
1
3
3
1
1
2

306
5
7
2
3
1
2
3
~
1
4
~
~
1
~
1
~
~
~
~
~
~
336

264
7
4
3
1
4
4
1
2
~
~
1
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
291

334
1
3
2
4
2
3
~
~
~
~
1
~
1
1
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
352

365
8
3
2
7
1
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
1
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
387

639
3
~
5
1
2
2
~
~
1
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
653

1
2
~
1
1
~
~
1
~
~
~
1
~
~
279

~ .
*-, " "- - .

- 31 -

7. : , 1990-2004

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

865.5

100.0

592.9

1 381.0

2 227.6

3 159.0

~
~
100.0

~
~
532.9

~
~
~

~
~
74.8

~
2 820.0
1 831.7

~
5 029.3
8 476.9

2003

2004

5 257.2

9 357.6

24 673.1

22 192.3

33 011.3

47 529.2

150.0
1 252.0
12 688.5

6 144.1
2 884.5
904.5

67.6
3 380.4
3 769.9

10.0
9 543.3
3 793.0

40.0
11 066.8
17 114.6

44.0
23 013.8
1 517.2

135 343.9

45 369.6

126024.0

5 949.3
15 773.2
2 765.3

120 113.4
6 092.7
6 859.9

51455.0
6507.0
5431.0

90.4

1 113.7

2 742.7

10 253.1

1 652.0

1 681.0

5 127.6

7 776.0

2 438.3

2 641.5

465.8

3233.0

~
~
~
~
~

1 407.0
~
~
18.1
~

597.6
~
30.0
480.0
~

260.7
~
546.5
~
~

1 817.3
~
159.5
571.8
~

6 374.6
20.3
309.3
116.3
~

3 680.9
~
8 262.5
2 019.7
~

3 795.5
221.9
1 107.3
2 877.4
~

2 172.2
1 934.9
1 931.9
1 322.3
~

1 406.9
21 453.8
1 597.1
3 259.7
40.0

2 403.8
12.0
3 689.3
6 127.0
1 338.6

5 702.3
3 566.6
1 933.0
2 245.6
15 040.0

1 566.2
~
361.3
1 803.8
62.0

2 532.9
6.0
1 718.2
467.7
1 472.2

2258.0
2.0
3127.0
7455.0
16528.0

25.0

14 589.4

200.0

1270.0

//

5.0

600.0

600.3

119.6

186.0

772.1

5 578.4

858.5

1 769.2

275.7

192.3

127.0

~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~

~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~
~

~
~
~
100.0
~
10.0
~
~
~
~
~

~
200.0
~
~
~
152.3
~
~
~
~
~

~
24.5
~
390.0
~

130.0
1 263.0
50.7
512.4
54.4
~
~
2 536.0
174.0

741.4
6 052.3
~
1 041.2

~
~
49.0
~
~

7 235.8
359.9
3.7
132.4
1 759.9
97.5
18.8
~
~
~
107.5

1 890.0

1 125.1
12.5
~
151.1
2 010.0
72.0

419.5
521.8
152.1
461.5
629.8
661.2
39.9
~
6.4
24.7
~

2 140.4
175.6
15.8
471.7
1 017.5
583.5
50.6
1 925.0
19.0
10.0
1 049.4

19.5
126.7
3 337.5
350.6
184.4
933.3
10.0
~
571.1
~
~

6.0
265.5
36.1
708.1
521.8
33.6
~
~
10.0
501.3
~

41.7
154.0
53.2
1 211.1
1 055.0
918.2
96.5
~
979.0
1 122.3
~

~
8.0
2 427.4
517.8
~
65.5
4 335.0
~
2 079.6
50.4
~

32.0
60.0
57.0
420.0
15.0
235.0
20.0
~
500.0
728.0
~

167.0

1 000.0

1 234.0

17.0

58.4

13.0

7.3

1 210.0

929.2

479.0

~
~
~
0.0
965.5

~
~
~
50.0
2 107.9

~
~
~
0.0
1 905.9

~
~
~
43.5
3 435.7

~
~
~
147.5
11 300.1

~
1 107.4
10.0
949.8
38 673.3

~
50.0
12.0
2 271.6
53 873.1

~
164.6
7.5
315.1
40 934.4

~
96.6
40.8
1 159.9
46 350.7

60.2
12.5
74.5
2 788.8
87 012.1

1 576.0
15.9
1 511.7
1 632.5
93 920.8

30.0
10.0
289.8
35.7
195.0
212.6
89.2
~
18.0
1 117.9
597.6
2183.8
123 181.9 175 007.9 196 892.2

19.0
28.0
17.0
10 967.0
237007.0

: , ~ .
*-, " "- .

- 32 -

 8. - , 1996-2004

, -

, ,

,

,
,

,

,
, ,

, ,

,
,

,

,

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

12947.3

22518.8

20690.0

19500.4

6596.9

6506.0

25855.0

37553.6

74480.7

70.5

41.9

70.3

52.3

-552

-630.8

-72.1

24.1

42.1

70.5

41.9

70.3

52.3

-552

-630.8

-72.1

24.1

42.1

31.1
-70.7

17.6
-38.0

17.6
7.6

12.7
-7.2

74.0
-24.5

132.1
231.0

-24.9
53.3

-3.0
4.3

36.9
1.6

0.5

0.2

1.5

2.4

0.7

5.7

1.7

0.3

1.0

1.9

-1.1

-0.5

0.7

-20.5

13.2

6.3

13.2

0.1

2.2

71.2

-16.6

6.9

420.2

210.2

76.8

32.0

6.7

2
30.2

0.0
10.0

0.1
14.8

1.8
13.9

9.0
179.6

-5.3
134.5

0.8
42.3

0.1
29.0

0.4
10.8

21.9

-11.3

-11.1

9.6

7.0

24.1

2.4

8.2

3.3

1.1

-0.4

1.4

-0.9

6.9

4.5

4.3

4.5

0.3

4.5

1.7

1.6

1.4

9.8

-16.5

-0.2

-1.2

-2.3

6.4

4.0

7.3

5.6

12.0

5.3

4.9

-4.0

0.9

2.0

1.0

2.5

-6.6

18.1

1.9

-1.1

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.0

8.1

2.3

3.1

0.0

0.1

-6.6

2.1

4.7

-1.7

-24.2

-28.4

-0.5

-6.4

-1.7

- 33 -