You are on page 1of 19

- 4 2102

( )

:


.



.




- -

144

- 4 2102

.

11.
11
.2001 -
" :
" -


. :
:
" "


Understanding . Explaining

( ) ( ) .

" " -

.

145

- 4 2102

:
" " ( )
( )
. " "
.
.
" "
" " .2

. :

"

".


" " ""
.

4



.
-2 , , , , 1111 ,11 .
-3 , ,23 .
: Kenneth N. Waltz, The Emerging Structure of International Politics, International Security, -

Vol. 18, No. 2 (Fall 1993), pp. 4479

146

- 4 2102

" "
5

: " "


.

.
-
.
" "

.

" "

6.


.

.
" "
.

5 , .

2005

.2005
6

- William Wohlforth, The Stability of a Unipolar World, International Security, Vol.24, No.1, Summer
1999, pp. 26-29

147

- 4 2102

: :

.
.
.
" " 1999-1994 " :
"
2009 "
" . 2009 "
"
:


"

".8

- Christopher Layne, The Waning of U.S. HegemonyMyth or Reality, International Security, Vol. 34,
No. 1,Summer 2009, pp.150-151
8
, , , ,2002 ,741 .

148

- 4 2102


11
( - ) .
( )
.

.

( )
( ).

"
" -
. " "

" "
.
-

.

" "
149

- 4 2102

:
. .
.

9.
2008 - " :
2025 .

.
" "

. -

2009

.

-
.

- Michael Mandelbaum, America's Coming Retrenchment, Foreign Affairs.com, 9 August 2011.

Available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68024/michael-mandelbaum/americas-comingretrenchment

150

- 4 2102

: :

1987 " :
.
.
10

".



. "
" .
.
"
".11

" " .

.
-
. " "
" ".
"
" . " "
%70 2009 2001 700
- Robert Gilpin, The Political Economy of International Relations (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University

10

Press, 1987), pp. 347348


-11 , ,281 .

151

- 4 2102
12

.%25 "
"
" "
.
13

" "

.
"

" .

.
2011 "

" .14
. ""
" " .
" :

" . " "
-
.

12

-the Washington-based Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (Laicie Olson, U.S. vs. Global
Defense Spending, 21 May 2010.
13
- Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2008.
14
- Richard N. Haass, Bringing Our Foreign Policy Home, Time Magazine, August 8, 2011. Available at:
http://www.cfr.org/us-strategy-and-politics/bringing-our-foreign-policy-home/p25514

152

- 4 2102

""
15

" "

"


" . -

.

. -
.

:

-
.


.
"

" .16
17

1- Ted Galen Carpenter, Washington's Foreign-Policy Hypochondria, National Interest, July 25, 2011.

Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/washingtons-foreign-policy-hypochondria5652?page=1


- Stephen M. Walt, In the National Interest: A New Grand Strategy for American Foreign Poli cy,

16

Boston Review, Vol. 30, No. 1 (February/March 2005), http://www.bostonreview.net/BR30.1/ walt.php.


- Paul K. MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent, Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power

17

Retrenchment, International Security, Vol. 35, No. 4 (Spring 2011), p.8

153

- 4 2102



.

18




.
"
.
19

".



" .

" .

:

350

600
350 1.3 .

:
-18 , ,22- 11 .
19

, , .7177\1\71 , :http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/hill8/Arabic

154

- 4 2102

: -1
.
-2
20

" ".

-3

.
"
".
-4

.
.



21

- Fareed Zakaria, Why defense spending should be cut, Washington Post, 4 August 2011. Available at:

20

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-defense-spending-should-becut/2011/08/03/gIQAsRuqsI_story.html
- Daniel Serwer, Spending Cuts that Threaten Our Influence Abroad, The Middle East Institute, August

21

2011. Available at:


http://mei.edu/Publications/WebPublications/MEICommentaries/CommentariesArchive/tabid/624/ctl/Detai
l/mid/1531/xmid/2055/xmfid/13/Default.aspx

155

- 4 2102

-5
-
.
-6

.
22

-7 " "


23

. " ".

-8

"".

-9


24

- :

Roy K. Flint, The Truman-MacArthur Conflict, in Richard H. Kohn, ed., The United States - :

22

Military under the Constitution of the United States, 17891989 (New York: New York University Press,
1991), pp. 246251.
- See Richard K. Betts, Suicide from Fear of Death? Foreign Affairs, Vol. 82, No. 1 (January/ February

23

2003), pp. 3443


- Daniel W. Drezner, Has the USA lost its AAA superpower rating? , Foreign Policy.com, 3 August

24

2011, Available at:


http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/03/has_the_usa_lost_its_aaa_superpower_rating

156

- 4 2102

-1 . "

25

".


.
-2

. " "
26

-3

27

" ".

28

-4

"
".
-5

. "
.

- Robert Kagan, No Time to Cut Defense, Washington Post, February 3, 2009.

25

- Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1983),

26

p.197
Dale C. Copeland, The Origins of Major War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2000), - :

27

p.p 40- 49.


- John Bolton, Defense and the Debt Ceiling, Decide America, 1 August 2011. Available at:

28

http://www.aei.org/article/103940

157

- 4 2102


29

".

-6 "
.
" .

.
.
30

:

.

.1870 " ":
% 83-61 . - . 4 .18
.
0.8 5 ( ).

-Samuel P. Huntington, Why International Primacy Matters, International Security, Spring 1993, p.38.
-30 " : , ,/ .2011

158

29

- 4 2102

5 %2.14 .8.38%
( ) .
.


.
""
.
31

31

- Paul K. MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent, Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power
Retrenchment, International Security, Vol. 35, No. 4 (Spring 2011), pp. 16-28

159

- 4 2102

. " "
.

.
.


- -

.

.



.
.

32


- .

32

, , : , , 71 ,7174 .7177

160

- 4 2102

.33

"
".


.


-
.
. .


.

.

. " :

33

- Randall Schweller, Xiaoyu Pu, After Unipolarity: China's Visions of International Order in an Era of
U.S. Decline, International Security, volume 36, issue 1, Summer 2011, pp.41-72

161

- 4 2102

" " "


.

.

. " "


.
.


.



162

You might also like