An Analysis of the Australian Connemara Pony Population

Fiona G. Comer
B. Ag. Sc

July 2007

An Analysis of the Australian Connemara Pony Population

There has been much discussion over the state of the genepool of the Australian Connemara Pony population, but it appears that minimal analysis has been conducted. The Feeley report unfortunately combined Australian and New Zealand data and only considered the foals born in three years, 1998 2001, which provided a small snapshot view of the population. It is the belief of the author and other interested parties that this report will be of interest to Australian breeders and it is hoped that this analysis will promote thoughtful constructive discussion. This is by no means a complete analysis of the breed and the current state in which it is found however the author hopes that this information may inspire others to undertake and publish further in-depth analyses of breed dynamics in the Australian Connemara Pony population. The information presented in this report is based on the CPSA Studbook files available in the members section of the society website; an Excel spreadsheet sourced from the Secretary of CPBSA detailing foals registered and documented in newsletters from 1991 to 2007. Additional information on pedigrees has been sourced from public sources such as the internet (AllBreed.com), and much pedigree information that is not included in the CPBSA files has been provided on a database file by a CPBSA member. While this report is considered to be reasonably accurate, without going through an extremely time consuming verification process, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any inaccuracies are likely to be minor and insufficient to materially alter the conclusions of the report. The author is happy to amend any verifiable inaccuracies which become apparent. Calculations of Coefficients of Inbreeding (COI) % have been made using the Breedmate computer programme and where possible include ancestors back to the original entry in the Connemara Pony Stud Book in Ireland. E.g. the ancestors of Ardan back to Bog Oak (Ire 247) and Rebel / Cannonball are included. The COI% may not be exactly comparable with those presented in the Feely1 report due to differing methods of analysis and recording. A brief interpretation of COI% is attached in the Appendix. The COI% calculated only estimates the level of inbreeding that has occurred since the start of the Connemara Pony Studbook in Ireland. The actual level of inbreeding is likely to be somewhat higher due to breeding practices over the centuries and the limited movement of ponies into and out of the Connemara region. (Authors note: following completion of the analysis for this report two new stallions, Capparis OGrady and Wychwood Dan OReilly, have been approved. They are not included as stallions in the following analysis. Capparis OGrady will be the only stallion on the list from the Island King sire line. Wychwood Dan OReilly represents the Inis OHara line.)

1 1 Characterisation of the Connemara Ponies in Four Regional Groups by Deirdre Feely, Patrick Brophy and Katherine Quinn.

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Summary
Foals From December 1991 to June 2007 321 purebred colt foals and 332 purebred filly foals were recorded in the CPBSA newsletters. The average COI% increased from 4.36% in 1992 to 5.14% in 2006. An analysis of 237 purebred foals registered with CPBSA and reported in CPBSA newsletters from September 2002 to June 2007 identified the following frequencies in the first three generations of foal pedigrees: o o o o o o o o Stallions 41 stallion lines have been imported into Australia. In May 2007 only 16 stallion lines remain on the current stallion list. Two other stallion lines have stallion prospects coming on. Six stallion lines have sufficient approved stallions and progeny to provide confidence that they will continue. Twelve stallion lines are at risk due to low stallion numbers or low numbers of progeny being bred. Two- thirds of the current stallions (May 2007) are male line descendants of just 6 imported stallions. Abbeyleix Finbar (10), Oxenholm Gideon (7), Connaught of Millfields (5), Blandings Bobby (4), Castle Baron (4) and Cregmore Colm (3). Abbeyleix Finbar has left more daughters than any other stallion with 31 adult registered to date. He is closely followed by Millfields Commodore with 30 and Domo Cavallo Praize with 29 mares to date. The average Coefficient of Inbreeding % (COI%) of the stallions on the current list in May 2007 is 4.44%. The average COI% has increased from 2.41% for the first 19 stallions (registration numbers 1-20) to 4.35% for stallions with registration numbers 180 200. Importation of a new stallion line is often mooted as a solution to the level of inbreeding. While this does add to the diversity it is unrealistic to expect that Abbeyleix Finbar appears in approximately 60% of all foal pedigrees. Oxenholm Gideon appears in approximately 29% of all foal pedigrees. Domo Cavallo Praize appears in approximately 24% of all foal pedigrees. Connaught of Millfields and his male line descendants appears in approximately 30% of all foal pedigrees. Castle Baron appears in approximately 17% of all foal pedigrees (in the first two generations). Shelford Downs Berwick Boy appears in approximately 17% of all foal pedigrees. Blandings Bobby appears in approximately 14% of all foal pedigrees. Cregmore Colm appears in approximately 12% of all foal pedigrees.

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adding one stallion line to the genepool can compensate for the loss of several other lines. Mares Approximately 70 mare lines were imported and some additional graded up mare lines are included in the stud book. 37 mare lines have produced purebred foals over the past five years. This includes three graded up lines. 18 mare lines have produced four or fewer foals over the past five years. These lines must be considered at risk. Even more seriously at risk are the other mare lines present in the population that have not had registered foals during the five years sampled. Some examples of these lines are Knock Ina, Easter Peak, Errislannon Alainn, Clonkeehan Charm, Little Lark of Abbeyleix, High Trees Kerry Blue and Sweet Sue. Adult mare registrations peaked at an average of 38 per year for mares born from 1977 to 1981. Adult mare registrations averaged 14.6 per year for mares born over the ten years from 1992 to 2001. Approximately 79% of filly foals born from 1991 to 2003 have been adult registered. Approximately 50% of adult registered mares born from 1989 to 1993 (inclusive) are recorded as having produced purebred foals. The number of fillies foal recorded since 1999 has climbed to average 24 per year. Approximately 9 or 10 each year will become broodmares. The current level of retention is likely to be insufficient to ensure that all mare lines continue in the long term.

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Stallions
Up to May 2007 199 stallions have been registered by CPBSA with 49 currently being listed on the CPBSA website. Six of these 199 stallions were exported to New Zealand, with the number 13 never having been allocated! Stallion Lines 41 stallions were imported or imported in utero (iiu) into Australia. Two sets of father and son were imported; Millfields Commodore and his English born son Millfields Cabin Boy and Atlantic Rebel and Green Hills Rebel (iiu). Although Chiltern Sunsilk is registered with the CPBSA he went directly to New Zealand, prior to the stud book being established in NZ. In May 2007 there are 16 stallion lines represented on the current stallion list and two other lines have young colts being retained as stallion prospects. Two-thirds of the stallions that have died or which were gelded, and are therefore no longer on the list, did not leave a registered stallion son.

Current Stallion List Two-thirds of the current stallions are male line descendants of just 6 imported stallions. Abbeyleix Finbar (10), Oxenholm Gideon (7), Connaught of Millfields (5), Blandings Bobby (4), Castle Baron (4) and Cregmore Colm (3). These sire lines appear to be secure. Another 11 imported sires (with the number of stallions in brackets) are represented on the current list: Yarraman Park George (3), Connemara Park Seamus (2), Tulira Colman (2), Inis OHara (2), Errislannon Spartan (1), Green Hills Rebel (1), Glenormiston McInnerney Muskerry (1), Mylerstown Huckleberry Finn (1), Millfields Commodore (1) and Toorigal Danny Boy (1). These sire lines are all at risk due to low stallion numbers and low progeny numbers. Shelford Downs Berwick Boy and Island King have no male line descendants currently on the list. Both have colts being brought on as stallion prospects and good numbers of female progeny. Three quarters of the stallions on the list at May 2007 have yet to leave a stallion son or their only registered son has been gelded.

Adult Registered Daughters of Stallions Analysis of all adult registered purebred mares showed that 657 were sired by stallions registered in the CPBSA stud book. The remainder were imported into Australia or bred in New Zealand prior to the setting up of a stud book there. The ten stallions with the most registered daughters are listed in the table below. None of these stallions is still alive but some are recently deceased and still have additional daughters who are likely to be adult registered.

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No. of adult registered daughters 31 30 29 21 18 17 16 16 15 15

Stallion or number of stallions Abbeyleix Finbar Millfields Commodore Domo Cavallo Praize Blandings Bobby Yarraman Park George Connemara Park Richard Inis O'Hara Toorigal Danny Boy Blandings Clancy Oxenholm Gideon

In total 86 stallions have not left any adult registered daughters and another 65 stallions have left four or less adult registered mares. The table below shows the number of registered daughters for each stallion on the current CPBSA stallion list.
Current Stallions No. of registered daughters 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 1

Stallion Glenormiston Oliver Ben Dhui Berin Ben Dhui Diccon, Springfield Devereux Castle Baron Aran Milano, Shabani Enterprise, Celtic Miceal McGee Blandings John, Glenormiston Thady, Colmaur Kasey, Newlands Gideon, Wychwood Willy Wagtail Rupari Ronan, Glenormiston Fintan, Mungala Emerald Isle, Blandings Ryan Wychwood Paddy Maginnis, Corrib Park Caradoc, Monahan Gumnut Boonahburra Magee, Kemill Hill Halligan, Glenormiston Freedom, Blandings Poitin, Exmoor Irish Jack, Strickland Park Jo's Rebel, Boonahburra Braveheart (7 stallions) Dylan Glen Shamrock, Ballantrae Granite, Glenormiston Slipper, Green Hills Trooper Thomas, Home Vale Fiddlesticks, Sheelin Grove Seamus Victor, Casmatarn Billy Jatz Rebel, Boonahburra Apollo, Garnet Kavalier, Garnet Kilmain, Capparis Champagne Charlie, Glenormiston St Nicholas, Garnet Liberty, Celtic de Derum, Kaledon County Tyrone, Glenormiston Fibber McGee, Glenormiston Tipper O'Toole, Achill Fiddler, Baron's Rebellion, Blandings Beamish, Monahan Limerick, Gracefield Park Aladdin (22 stallions)

Changes in Stallion Coefficients of Inbreeding % Also of interest is the level of inbreeding amongst the stallion population. The Coefficient of Inbreeding % (COI%) for each stallion has been calculated and the results averaged for stallions with registration numbers from 1-20, then 21-40, 41-60 and so on to 199. This gives an approximation of the change in inbreeding over time as stallions 1-20 were born from 1958 to 1970 and stallions 181 -199 were born after 1997. The results are presented in the graph below.

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Change in Stallion COIs

5.00% 4.00% COI% 3.00% Series1 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1- 21- 41- 61- 81- 101- 121- 141- 161- 18120' 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Stallion registration number

The graph shows a steady increase in the average COI% of Australian Connemara Pony Stallions. How many foals has each sire line produced? The CPBSA publishes in each newsletter a list of foals registered. The lists from September 1991 through to June 2007 were analysed to provide the following information. 1991-2007 During this time 653 purebred foals were recorded. They represent progeny of 19 stallion lines and 81 individual stallions. The male line of Glenormiston ONeill Clanaboy has not survived into this century.
Purebred Foals Reported in Newsletters from September 1991 to June 2007 Abbeyleix Finbar Oxenholm Gideon (109) Island King Castle Baron Connaught of Millfields Tulira Colman Blandings Bobby Cregmore Colm Shelford Downs Berwick Boy (96) Connemara Park Seamus Yarraman Park George Toorigal Danny Boy (33) Atlantic Rebel Inis O'Hara 29 Mylerstown Huckleberry Finn Millfields Commodore Errislannon Spartan Glenormiston McInnerney Muskerry(95) Glenormiston O'Neill Clanaboy (iiu) (86) Stallion Line Total 149 76 51 50 44 41 36 29 28 26 25 24 19 17 12 10 7 7 2 653
July 2007

% of foals 23% 12% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 100%

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An Analysis of Australian Connemara Ponies

 Nearly one out of four foals was sired by Abbeyleix Finbar, his sons or grandson. Nearly one out of eight foals was sired by Oxenholm Gideon, his sons and grandson. The seven most prolific stallion lines sired 69% of foals from 1991 to 2007.

Looking back through the CPBSA records it is clear that leaving many sons does not guarantee that a sire line will continue in the long term. Examples of this situation are: Clonkeehan Archer left 11 registered stallion sons. It appears that this male line has now ended. Island King left 15 sons. Today he has no male line descendants on the stallion list. Tulira Colman left 9 sons. In the past five years his male line descendants have left 2 foals. Connaught of Millfields left 11 stallion sons. Four of his male line descendants have left just 19 foals in total over the past five years. It appears that this is the result of mini-bottlenecks occurring in the population, as the result of heavy use of an imported stallion.

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Mares
Since the beginning of the CPBSA stud book approximately 70 mare lines have been imported into Australia (often a mare, a filly foal and in utero foal were imported). In addition there are some graded up lines that have descendants included in the adult registered mare list.

The number of mares that were adult registered Birth Year 1962-1966 1967-1971 1972-1976 1977-1981 1982-1986 1987-1991 1992-1996 1997-2001 2002 2003 2004 Number adult registered* 15 38 104 189 118 104 70 76 Actual per year to date 17 11 4 746 Average per year 3 8 21 38 24 21 14 15

* Excludes NZ bred mares recorded in CPBSA studbook prior to CPSNZ being set up.

The percentage of fillies that are eventually adult registered is the important figure in determining retention of potential breeding females in the breed. Over the period of newsletters reviewed (1991-2007) the foal registration of 324 purebred filly foals was reported. Unfortunately the newsletter does not record the date of birth of the fillies being registered so it was not possible to accurately match fillies recorded with the Adult Registered Mares file. However, by combining all the records available up to 2002 much of the newsletter timing issues are removed. As fillies from any one year end up being adult registered over an extended period of time, the % adult registered of fillies born in 2003 and 2004 can only be considered provisional figures and are excluded from the main calculation.

Year of Birth 1991-2003 2003 2004 2005 2006

* to date

Number of Fillies Foal Recorded 224 27 20 28 25

Number of Mares Adult Registered 177 11 4 n/a n/a

% Adult Registered 79% 41%* 20%*

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How many Adult Registered Mares produce Purebred foals? The adult registered mares born from 1989 to 1993 (inclusive) were selected as a sample for this analysis. All their registered foals to date would be included in the newsletter reports and most mares being bred from will have had their first foal by the time they are 13.
Foaling Records of Adult Registered Mares born from 1989 to 1993 Number of Mares % Total in sample 96 47% Mares with no foals recorded 45 8% Mares with only colt foals recorded 8 28% Mares who's filly foals have been adult registered 27 Mares with all filly foals too young to adult register 11% 11 Mares with filly foals but no daughters adult 5% registered 5 Filly foals not adult registered, from mares with adult registered daughters

Number of filly foals 89

46 27 7 9

The results show that about half of the adult registered mares were recorded as having foals or only colt foals. It also showed that the next generation of adult registered mares come from only 30-40% of the available group of mares. How many Mare Lines are actively breeding? The analysis of mare lines has concentrated on the 120 mares who have produced the foals reported in the past five years of newsletters (September 2002 to June 2007). During this time 37 mare lines have been represented by foals as shown in the table on the next page. Nineteen mare lines must be considered at risk. Two mare lines have not produced a filly foal during the past five years Bodenpark Rosethorn and Noorookoo Spice (2B-036). Another 17 mare lines that have produced less than 5 foals in the past five years must be considered to be seriously at risk. In addition there are other mare lines present in the population but they have not had registered foals during the five years sampled. These lines are seriously at risk. Some examples of these lines are Knock Ina, Easter Peak, Errislannon Alainn, Clonkeehan Charm, Little Lark of Abbeyleix, High Trees Kerry Blue and Sweet Sue. The number of fillies foal recorded from 1991 to 1998 averaged 16 per year, and fortunately since 1999 has climbed to average 24 per year. However, at the current rates of adult registration to foalings, only 40% of fillies end up as brood mares resulting in 9-10 broodmares each year. It seems very likely that more mare lines will become extinct in Australia unless special efforts are made to ensure their continuation. The immediate priorities here are: 1. to encourage owners of mares from the at risk lines to breed from them, and 2. to ensure that their fillies are retained as broodmares.

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Number of Foals registered 2002-2007 21 17 16 15 13 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

% of foals from each mare line 8.9% 7.2% 6.8% 6.3% 5.5% 4.2% 3.8% 3.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4%

Mare line Eadon Calypso Diamonds Ardan Macaroon of Calmore, Millfield Seaspray Washlands Rebecca Silver Mill Ballydonagh Belle, Fabian's Rebecca, Oxenholm Dulcinea Lisavalla Rose, Rosenaharley Rincenamara Clonkeehan Fuchsia, Tulira Fuchsia, Sweet Surprise Aylesland Silver Velvet, Oxenholm Tiffany, September Song of Millfields Grange Solitary Swan Boffin Heron, Errislannon Columbine, Stonely Golden Heather Belle Heather, Chiltern Gemini, Easter Sparkle, Cocum Raindrop, Drumconrath Woody Chiltern Martina, Glenlo Mistress, Newton Bubbles, Vale Southern Cross, Howquadale Miffen (2B-032) Abbey Rachel, Bodenpark Rosethorn, Emerald Cornelian, Renvyle Rebel, Silver Sadie (2B-006), Noorookoo Spice (2B-036)

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Foals
From September 1991 to June 2007 around 245 individual mares produced 653 purebred foals that were foal recorded. Of these 321 were colt foals and 332 were filly foals. Trends in Coefficient of Inbreeding % The 1992 newsletter issues record 55 foals for which the average COI% is 4.4%. Individual COI% ranged from 0.7% to 14.6%. The newsletter issues from June 2006 to June 2007 record 74 foals. Their average COI% is 5.1%. Individual COI% ranged from 2.5% to 10.3%. Over the 14 years the average COI% of foals has increased by 0.7%. The average COI% of foals in 2006 is significantly higher than that of the current stallion list average. More than 20% of the 74 foals in the 2006 sample have a COI% higher than 6.25% (the COI% for a mating of first cousins). Frequency of major sire lines in foal population from 2002-2007 The foals reported in the CPSBA newsletters from September 2002 to June 2007 were recorded against their sire line (1), and dams sire (2). For the most frequently occurring sire lines their contribution through the sires dam sire (3), and maternal grand-sire (4) was also estimated. This provides a more comprehensive picture of the first three generations of foal pedigrees and more clearly shows the impact of each sire line to the population. The pedigree table identifies each of the four stallion lines in the first three generations of a pedigree. First Three Generations of Pedigree
Percentage of genes contributed on average to foal by each ancestor in this generation

50%

25%

12.5%

(1)Grand sire (1) Sire Sires Dam Foal (2) Dams Sire Dam Grand dam

(1) Great g-sire Great g-dam (3) Sires Dam Sire Great g-dam (2) Great g-sire Great g-dam (4) Granddams sire Great g-dam

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The 237 foals registered represent the progeny of 17 stallion lines and 43 individual stallions.

Purebred Foals Recorded in CPBSA Newsletters from September 2002 to June 2007 (1) (2) (3) (4) Sire Line 61 26 13 13 19 7 39 19 8 16 9 5 7 2 7 1 1 1 0 3 0 237 Dam Sire 49 30 25 18 16 12 2 16 12 11 9 12 6 11 5 10 6 5 4 4 0 3 1 237 Sire's Dam Sire 22 9 4 21 13 7 0 2 13 0 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** Grand dam's sire 17 4 25 6 23 3 0 4 0 2 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** Estimated Total % of Foals * 63% 29% 28%** 24% 30%** 12% 17% 17% 14% 12% *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

Abbeyleix Finbar Oxenholm Gideon (109) Island King Domo Cavallo Praize Connaught of Millfields Blandings Clancy Castle Baron Shelford Downs Berwick Boy (96) Blandings Bobby Cregmore Colm Connemara Park Seamus Inis O'Hara 29 Yarraman Park George Tulira Colman Atlantic Rebel Mylerstown Huckleberry Finn Millfields Commodore Glenormiston McInnerney Muskerry(95) Glenormiston O'Neill Clanaboy (iiu) (86) Rory Ruadh Errislannon Spartan Toorigal Danny Boy (33) Yarraman Park Toby

*A few foals carry more than one cross of one sire line in the first three generations of their pedigree leading to a slight over estimation of the total % of foals carrying the genes of that sire line. ** These figures overestimate the influence of Island King and Connaught of Millfields due to additional generations of progeny being included. In each case the male line descendant with the most influence is listed below. *** not calculated

What is striking is the predominance of Abbeyleix Finbar and his descendants over the last 5 years. He appears in the first three generations of pedigrees of around 60% of all registered foals born over this time. This is twice the rate of the next highest stallions, Oxenholm Gideon and Domo Cavallo Praize, who each appear in 20 30 % of foal pedigrees. Castle Baron only appears in the first two generations of pedigrees at this time. However, he and his three sons have sired the second highest number of foals for any stallion line over the past five years leading to him appearing in the first two generations of 17% of foal pedigrees.
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Shelford Downs Berwick Boy, mainly through his recently deceased son Corrib Park Ballymac appears in the first three generations of 17% of foal pedigrees. There are at least 10 stallion lines that are at risk and nearly all, except that of Island King and Shelford Downs Berwick Boy have been under utilised. Losing any of these lines will reduce available genetic diversity. They are: 1. Island King 2. Shelford Downs Berwick Boy 3. Toorigal Danny Boy (Ballantrae Granite) 4. Millfields Commodore (Achill Fiddler) 5. Errislannon Spartan ( Kemill Hill Halligan) 6. Mylerstown Huckleberry Finn (Rupari Ronan) 7. Glenormiston McInnerney Muskerry (Dylan Glen Shamrock) 8. Tulira Colman (Blandings Poitin, Blandings Beamish) 9. Atlantic Rebel (Strickland Park Jos Rebel) 10. Connemara Park Seamus (Ben Dhui Diccon, Monahan Gumnut) 11. Inis OHara (Wychwood Paddy Maginnis, Wychwood Willy Wagtail) 12. Yarraman Park George (Ben Dhui Berin, Newlands Gideon, Shabani Enterprise) It seems very likely that some stallion lines will become extinct in Australia unless special efforts are made to ensure their continuation. The immediate priorities here are: 1. to encourage mare owners to use a broader range of stallions including those from at risk lines with the aim of producing stallions suitable to mate with mares from the more frequently occurring lines, and 2. to ensure that good colts from at risk lines are retained as stallion prospects. A higher number of colt foals provides more from which to choose a future stallion from. Importation of a new stallion line is often mooted as a means of bringing in new blood. While this does add to the diversity it is unrealistic to expect that adding one stallion line to the genepool can compensate for the loss of several other lines.

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Conclusion
There is considerable genetic diversity available through the stallion and mare lines in Australia. However, the average COI% in foals and stallion is increasing. There is a breeding bottleneck occurring due to the high frequency of Abbeyleix Finbar and his descendants in foals born over the past five years. This can be overcome by making use of the at risk lines of stallions and mares. Importation of a new stallion line is often mooted as a solution to the level of inbreeding. While this does add to the diversity it is unrealistic to expect that adding one stallion line to the genepool can compensate for the loss of several other lines. The low number of filly foals retained for breeding is, if unchecked, insufficient to maintain all the existing mare lines. Not all mare lines available have produced foals in the past five years. These lines are seriously at risk of extinction in Australia. Breeders should be aiming to breed stallions and mares that will provide outcrosses for the most frequently occurring lines. This approach will help to slow the increase in or reduce the level of inbreeding in the Australian Connemara Pony population in generations ahead. Practical concerns such as distance to stallions can be overcome by use of artificial insemination, which could be made economic by several breeders working together to use the same under utilised stallion in the same season.

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Appendix
COI % (Wrights Coefficient of Inbreeding %). This estimates the total effect of ancestors appearing repeatedly in a pedigree. For example, if both the sires ancestors and dams ancestors are totally unrelated, then matings: between progeny (full brother and sister) gives a COI of 25% between half-brother and half-sister gives a COI of 12.5% where a mare or stallion appears in the 2nd and 3rd generation of the pedigree (is a grand-parent and a great-grandparent) gives a COI of 6.25%. where first cousins are mated (two of the parents are full siblings) the COI% will be 6.25%.

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