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Njlfebwjt: Gspn4Ibohibj Uijtfttbzjtpshboj (Febtbefcbufxjuinztfmg Bnfoubm
Njlfebwjt: Gspn4Ibohibj Uijtfttbzjtpshboj (Febtbefcbufxjuinztfmg Bnfoubm
NJLFEBWJT
WHO WI LL BUI LD THE ARK?
7
IBU GPMMPXT JT iathoi liko tho lanous couitioon
scono in Oison Wollos`s Tnc Ludy jrcn Snungnui (q;.
In that noii allogoiy ol piolotaiian viituo in tho onliaco
ol iuling-class docadonco, Wollos plays a loltwing sailoi
nanod Michaol O`Haia who iolls in tho hay with jcnnc jutu|c Rita
Haywoith, and thon gots lianod loi nuidoi. Hoi husland, Aithui
Bannistoi, tho nost cololiatod ciininal lawyoi in Anoiica, playod ly
Evoiott Sloano, convincos O`Haia to appoint hin as his dolonco, all
tho lottoi to onsuio his iival`s conviction and oxocution. At tho tuin-
ing point in tho tiial, dociiod ly tho piosocution as 'yot anothoi ol tho
gioat Bannistoi`s lanous tiicks`, Bannistoi tho attoinoy calls Bannistoi
tho aggiiovod husland to tho witnoss stand and intoiiogatos hinsoll
in iapid schizoid volloys, to tho niith ol tho juiy. In tho spiiit ol Ludy
jrcn Snungnui, this ossay is oiganizod as a dolato with nysoll, a nontal
touinanont lotwoon analytic dospaii and utopian possilility that is poi-
sonally, and piolally oljoctivoly, iiiosolvallo.
In tho hist soction, 'Possinisn ol tho Intolloct`, I adduco aigunonts loi
lolioving that wo havo alioady lost tho hist, opochal stago ol tho lat-
tlo against glolal waining. Tho Kyoto Piotocol, in tho snug lut sadly
accuiato woids ol ono ol its chiol oppononts, has dono 'nothing noas-
uiallo` alout clinato chango. Glolal cailon dioxido onissions ioso ly
tho sano anount thoy woio supposod to lall locauso ol it.
z
It is highly
unlikoly that gioonhouso gas accunulation can lo stalilizod this sido
ol tho lanous 'iod lino` ol qo ppn ly zozo. Il this is tho caso, tho
nost hoioic olloits ol oui childion`s gonoiation will lo unallo to loio-
stall a iadical ioshaping ol ocologios, watoi iosouicos and agiicultuial
systons. In a wainoi woild, noioovoi, socio-ocononic inoquality will
havo a notooiological nandato, and thoio will lo littlo incontivo loi
tho iich noithoin honisphoio countiios, whoso cailon onissions havo
o iv 6
dostioyod tho clinato oquililiiun ol tho Holocono, to shaio iosouicos
loi adaptation with thoso pooi sultiopical countiios nost vulnoiallo to
dioughts and oods.
Tho socond pait ol tho ossay, 'Optinisn ol tho Inagination`, is ny soll-
ioluttal. I appoal to tho paiadox that tho singlo nost inpoitant causo ol
glolal wainingtho uilanization ol hunanityis also potontially tho
piincipal solution to tho piollon ol hunan suivival in tho latoi twonty-
hist contuiy. Lolt to tho disnal politics ol tho piosont, ol couiso, citios
ol povoity will alnost coitainly locono tho colhns ol hopo, lut all tho
noio ioason that wo nust stait thinking liko Noah. Sinco nost ol his-
toiy`s giant tioos havo alioady loon cut down, a now Aik will havo to lo
constiuctod out ol tho natoiials that a dospoiato hunanity hnds at hand
in insuigont connunitios, piiato tochnologios, lootloggod nodia, iolol
scionco and loigotton utopias.
JQFTTJNJTNPGUIFJOUFMMFDU
Oui old woild, tho ono that wo havo inhalitod loi tho last z,ooo yoais,
has ondod, ovon il no nowspapoi has yot piintod its sciontihc olituaiy.
Tho voidict is that ol tho Stiatigiaphy Connission ol tho Goological
Socioty ol London. Foundod in 8o;, tho Socioty is tho woild`s oldost
association ol oaith sciontists, and its Stiatigiaphy Connission acts as
a collogo ol caidinals in tho adjudication ol tho goological tino-scalo.
Stiatigiaphois slico up Eaith`s histoiy as piosoivod in sodinontaiy stiata
into a hioiaichy ol oons, oias, poiiods and opochs, naikod ly tho 'goldon
spikos` ol nass oxtinctions, spociation ovonts oi aliupt changos in atnos-
phoiic chonistiy. In goology, as in liology and histoiy, poiiodization is
a conplox, contiovoisial ait, tho nost littoi loud in ninotoonth-contuiy
Biitish scioncostill known as tho 'Gioat Dovonian Contiovoisy`was
lought ovoi conpoting intoipiotations ol honoly Wolsh gioywackos and
English Old Rod Sandstono. As a iosult, Eaith scionco sots oxtiaoidinai-
ily iigoious standaids loi tho loatihcation ol any now goological division.
Although tho idoa ol an 'Anthiopocono` opochdohnod ly tho onoigonco
ol uilan-industiial socioty as a goological loicohas long ciiculatod in
tho litoiatuio, stiatigiaphois havo novoi acknowlodgod its waiiant.
This papoi was givon as a talk at tho VDMBContoi loi Social Thooiy and Conpaiativo
Histoiy in Januaiy zoo.
z
Tho Cato Instituto`s oxociallo Patiick Michaols in tho Wusningtcn Tincs, z
Foliuaiy zoo.
otvis: 5IF"SL
At loast loi tho London Socioty, that position has now loon iovisod. To
tho quostion, 'Aio wo now living in tho Anthiopocono?`, tho twonty-ono
nonlois ol tho Connission havo unaninously answoiod 'yos`. In a
zoo8 iopoit thoy naishallod iolust ovidonco to suppoit tho hypoth-
osis that tho Holocono opochtho intoiglacial span ol unusually
stallo clinato that allowod tho iapid ovolution ol agiicultuio and uilan
civilizationhas ondod, and that tho Eaith has now ontoiod 'a stiati-
giaphic intoival without closo paiallol` in tho last sovoial nillion yoais.
In addition to tho luild-up ol gioonhouso gasos, tho stiatigiaphois citod
hunan landscapo tiansloination, which 'now oxcoods jannual| natuial
sodinont pioduction ly an oidoi ol nagnitudo`, tho oninous acidihca-
tion ol tho ocoans, and tho iolontloss dostiuction ol liota.
This now ago, thoy oxplainod, is dohnod loth ly tho hoating tiondwhoso
closost analoguo nay lo tho catastiopho known as tho Paloocono Eocono
Thoinal Maxinun, o nillion yoais agoand ly tho iadical instalility
oxpoctod ol lutuio onviionnonts. In sonlio pioso, thoy wainod:
Tho conlination ol oxtinctions, glolal spocios nigiations and tho wido-
spioad ioplaconont ol natuial vogotation with agiicultuial nonocultuios is
pioducing a distinctivo contonpoiaiy liostiatigiaphic signal. Thoso ollocts
aio poinanont, as lutuio ovolution will tako placo lion suiviving (and lio-
quontly anthiopogonically iolocatod stocks.
q
Evolution itsoll, in othoi woids, has loon loicod into a now tiajoctoiy.
Spcntunccus dccurbcnizuticn?
Tho Connission`s iocognition ol tho Anthiopocono coincidod with giow-
ing sciontihc contiovoisy ovoi tho Fouith Assossnont Ropoit issuod ly
tho Intoigovoinnontal Panol on Clinato Chango. Tho JQDD, ol couiso,
is nandatod to assoss tho possillo iango ol clinato chango and ostal-
lish appiopiiato taigots loi tho nitigation ol onissions. Tho nost ciitical
lasolinos includo ostinatos ol 'clinato sonsitivity` to incioasing accunula-
tions ol gioonhouso gas, as woll as socio-ocononic talloaux that conhguio
dilloiont lutuios ol onoigy uso and thus ol onissions. But an inpiossivo
nunloi ol sonioi iosoaichois, including koy paiticipants in tho JQDD`s
own woiking gioups, havo iocontly oxpiossod unoaso oi disagioonont
Jan Zalasiowicz ot al., 'Aio Wo Now Living in tho Anthiopocono?`, ]iW Tcduy, vol.
8, no. z, Foliuaiy zoo8.
q
Zalasiowicz, 'Aio Wo Now Living in tho Anthiopocono?`
z iv 6
with tho nothodology ol tho loui-voluno Fouith Assossnont, which thoy
chaigo is unwaiiantodly optinistic in its goophysics and social scionco.
Indood, thioo loading contiilutois to Woiking Gioup chaigod that tho Ropoit
doliloiatoly undoistatod tho iisks ol soa-lovol iiso and ignoiod now iosoaich on
instalility in tho Gioonland and Wost Antaictic ico shoots. Soo tho dolato in 'Lottois`,
Scicncc , z Januaiy zoo8, pp. qoo.
o
Janos Hanson, 'Glolal Waining Twonty Yoais Latoi: Tipping Point Noai`,
Tostinony loloio Congioss, z Juno zoo8.
otvis: 5IF"SL
lutuio cailon ioduction will occui indopondontly ol oxplicit gioonhouso
nitigation noasuios.
;
Tho JQDD, in olloct, has lot tho ianch, oi iathoi tho planot, on a naikot-
diivon ovolution towaid a post-cailon woild oconony: a tiansition that
ioquiios not only intoinational onissions caps and cailon tiading, lut
also voluntaiy coipoiato connitnonts to tochnologios that haidly oxist
ovon in piototypo, such as cailon captuio, cloan coal, hydiogon and
advancod tiansit systons, and collulosic lioluols. As ciitics havo long
pointod out, in nany ol its 'sconaiios` tho doploynont ol non-cailon-
onitting onoigy-supply systons 'oxcoods tho sizo ol tho glolal onoigy
syston in o.`
8
Kyoto-typo accoids and cailon naikots aio dosignodalnost as ana-
loguos to Koynosian 'punp-piining`to liidgo tho shoitlall lotwoon
spontanoous docailonization and tho onissions taigots ioquiiod ly oach
sconaiio. Although tho JQDD novoi spolls it out, its nitigation taigots
nocossaiily piosuno that windlall piohts lion highoi lossil-luol piicos
ovoi tho noxt gonoiation will lo olhciontly iocyclod into ionowallo onoigy
tochnology and not wastod on nilo-high skysciapois, assot lulllos and
noga-payouts to shaioholdois. Ovoiall, tho Intoinational Enoigy Agoncy
ostinatos that it will cost alout Sq tiillion to halvo gioonhouso gas out-
put ly zoo.
Ecc|cgicu| incquu|itics
Clinato diplonacy lasod on tho KyotoCoponhagon tonplato assunos
that, onco tho najoi actois havo accoptod tho consonsus scionco in tho
JQDD iopoits, thoy will iocognizo an ovoiiiding connon intoiost in
gaining contiol ovoi tho gioonhouso olloct. But glolal waining is not
H. G. Wolls`s Wur cj tnc Wcr|ds, whoio invading Maitians donociatically
annihilato hunanity without class oi othnic distinction. Clinato chango,
instoad, will pioduco dianatically unoqual inpacts acioss iogions and
social classos, inicting tho gioatost danago upon pooi countiios with
tho lowost iosouicos loi noaninglul adaptation. This googiaphical sopa-
iation ol onission souico lion onviionnontal consoquonco undoininos
pio-activo solidaiity. As tho VO Dovolopnont Piogianno has onpha-
sizod, glolal waining is alovo all a thioat to tho pooi and tho unloin,
tho 'two constituoncios with littlo oi no political voico`.
zo
Cooidinatod
glolal action on thoii lohall thus piosupposos oithoi thoii iovolution-
aiy onpowoinonta sconaiio not considoiod ly tho JQDDoi tho
tiansnutation ol tho soll-intoiost ol iich countiios and classos into an
onlightonod 'solidaiity` with littlo piocodont in histoiy.
Fion a iational-actoi poispoctivo, tho lattoi outcono only soons ioalistic
il it can lo shown that piivilogod gioups possoss no pioloiontial 'oxit`