BOC Bangladesh Limited

Nave Approach:
Forcasted sales in 2013= Sales in 2012= 4056.30
Moving Average:
Year
Sales (M)
3 Months Moving Average
2001
1171.800000
2002
1287.800000
2003
1289.400000
2004
1224.145000
1249.666667
2005
1553.430000
1267.115
2006
1887.164000
1355.658333
2007
2000.200000
1554.913
2008
2498.600000
1813.598
2009
2742.800000
2128.654667
2010
3046.700000
2413.866667
2011
3561.100000
2762.7
2012
4056.300000
3116.866667
2013
3554.7
Total
moving average is more accurate then 6 months moving average coz of less error
Weihted Moving Average
By assigning more weight on recent data, we applied weight as follows:
3 months moving average
6 months moving average
Weights applied Period
Weights applied
0.5
Last Year
0.4
0.3
2 years ago
0.2
0.2
3 Years Ago
0.1
6
Sum of Weight
0.1
0.1
0.1
1
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Sales (M)
1171.800000
1287.800000
1289.400000
1224.145000
1553.430000
1887.164000
2000.200000
2498.600000
2742.800000
3046.700000
3561.100000
4056.300000

3 Months Weighted Moving Average

1265.4
1256.4525
1401.8385
1654.44
1876.9352
2226.7928
2521.02
2845.91
3243.12
3705.82

Total
moving average is more accurate then 6 months moving average coz of less error
Exponential Smoothing
Year
2001
2002

Sales (M)
1,171.80
1,287.80

Forecast (a=.1)
1,171.80
1,171.80

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total

1,289.40
1,224.15
1,553.43
1,887.16
2,000.20
2,498.60
2,742.80
3,046.70
3,561.10
4,056.30

1,183.40
1,194.00
1,197.01
1,232.66
1,298.11
1,368.32
1,481.34
1,607.49
1,751.41
1,932.38
2144.771976

MAD=
a=.5 is preferable, using MAD. Coz a=.5 has less MAD value
MSE=
a=.5 is preferable, using MSE. Coz a=.5 has less MSE value
Exponential Smoothing with trend adjustment

Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Sales (M)
1171.800000
1287.800000
1289.400000
1224.145000
1553.430000
1887.164000
2000.200000
2498.600000
2742.800000
3046.700000
3561.100000
4056.300000

Forcast Using Exponential Smoothing

a=.5
1171.8
1171.8
1229.8
1236.4
1209.0725
1375.22225
1559.910025
1649.153423
1933.45808
2112.072272
2327.095045
2656.255541

MAD=
MSE=
when deviation is large from the graph. Trend exists. So in case of trend never use exponential smoothing
Trend Projection
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

Period (x)
1.000000
2.000000
3.000000
4.000000
5.000000
6.000000
7.000000
8.000000

Sales (M) (y)

1171.800000
1287.800000
1289.400000
1224.145000
1553.430000
1887.164000
2000.200000
2498.600000

2009
2010
2011
2012

9.000000
10.000000
11.000000
12.000000

2742.800000
3046.700000
3561.100000
4056.300000

n=12,

sum(x)
78.000000

sum(y)
26319.439000

x (bar)=6.5
y (bar)= 2193.287

b=

37516.028/143
262.350000

a=

488.012000

trend equation is, y= 488.012+262.35x

Y=

3898.562000

Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Period (x)
1.000000
2.000000
3.000000
4.000000
5.000000
6.000000
7.000000
8.000000
9.000000
10.000000
11.000000
12.000000
13.000000
Total

MAD=
MSE=

Error

-25.521667
286.315000
531.505667
445.287000
685.002000
614.145333
632.833333
798.400000
939.433333

6 Months Moving Average

1402.289833
1540.3565
1742.1565
1984.389833
2288.149
2622.760667
2984.283333

4907.400000

Error

597.910167
958.243500
1000.643500
1062.310167
1272.951000
1433.539333
6325.597667

lied weight as follows:

Period
Last Year
2 years ago
3 Years Ago
4 Years Ago
5 Years Ago
6 Years Ago
Sum of Weight
Error

-41.255000
296.977500
485.325500
345.760000
621.664800
516.007200
525.680000
715.190000
813.180000

6 Months Weighted Moving Average

1562.8661
1712.9903
1994.8939
2263.3339
2561.1794
2946.6564
3363.57

4278.530000

Error

437.333900
785.609700
747.906100
783.366100
999.920600
1109.643600
4863.780000

Error
0.00
116.00

Error2
0.00
13,456.00

106.00
30.15
356.42
654.51
702.09
1,130.28
1,261.46
1,439.21
1,809.69
2,123.92

11,236.00
908.72
127,032.01
428,380.66
492,934.80
1,277,541.56
1,591,269.87
2,071,325.17
3,274,973.98
4,511,036.28

9729.719756

13800095.04

810.8099797

1150007.92

Smoothed Forecast, Ft
1171.8
1171.8
1195
1221.304
1234.74388
1310.504874
1457.294479
1631.722924
1900.423847
2212.078677
2564.640247
2988.134284

Smoothed Trend, Tt
0
0
9.28
16.0896
15.029712
39.32222464
82.30917678
119.1568844
178.9744997
232.0466319
280.2526072
337.5491788

xy
1171.8
2575.6
3868.2
4896.58
7767.15
11322.984
14001.4
19988.8

x2
1.000000
4.000000
9.000000
16.000000
25.000000
36.000000
49.000000
64.000000

sts. So in case of trend never use exponential smoothing

24685.2
30467
39172.1
48675.6

81.000000
100.000000
121.000000
144.000000

sum(xy)
208592.414

sum(x2)
650.000000

4500.000000
4000.000000
3500.000000
3000.000000
2500.000000
2000.000000
1500.000000
1000.000000
500.000000
0.000000
1

Actual
Sales (M) (y)
1171.800000
1287.800000
1289.400000
1224.145000
1553.430000
1887.164000
2000.200000
2498.600000
2742.800000
3046.700000
3561.100000
4056.300000

Forecasted Sales, y=488.012+262.35x

750.362
1012.712
1275.062
1537.412
1799.762
2062.112
2324.462
2586.812
2849.162
3111.512
3373.862
3636.212
3898.562

Error
421.438000
275.088000
14.338000
-313.267000
-246.332000
-174.948000
-324.262000
-88.212000
-106.362000
-64.812000
187.238000
420.088000
-0.005000

0.000416667

Forecast (a=.3)
1,171.80
1,171.80

Error
Error2
Forecast (a=.5)
0.00
0.00
1,171.80
116.00
13,456.00
1,171.80

Error
0.00
116.00

1,206.60
1,215.20
1,203.04
1,303.94
1,429.01
1,508.73
1,707.40
1,859.78
2,039.25
2,294.32
2569.555981

82.80
8.94
350.39
583.22
571.19
989.87
1,035.40
1,186.92
1,521.85
1,761.98

6,855.84
80.01
122,770.70
340,151.23
326,259.80
979,833.13
1,072,050.44
1,408,776.28
2,316,018.10
3,104,581.43

8208.559810

9690832.963

684.0466509

557.283322

807569.4136

Forecast Including Trend , FITt

1171.8
1171.8
1204.28
1237.3936
1249.773592
1349.827098
1539.603655
1750.879809
2079.398347
2444.125309
2844.892855
3325.683462

Error
0.000000
116.000000
85.120000
-13.248600
303.656408
537.336902
460.596345
747.720191
663.401653
602.574691
716.207145
730.616538

Error2
0.000000
13456.000000
7245.414400
175.525402
92207.214119
288730.945993
212148.992684
559085.484554
440101.753763
363096.257998
512952.675189
533800.524904

60.8847115
44483.37708

1,229.80
1,236.40
1,209.07
1,375.22
1,559.91
1,649.15
1,933.46
2,112.07
2,327.10
2,656.26
2994.339986

59.60
-12.26
344.36
511.94
440.29
849.45
809.34
934.63
1,234.00
1,400.04
6687.399865

Series1
Series3

10

Error2
177609.987844
75673.407744
205.578244
98136.213289
60679.454224
30606.802704
105145.844644
7781.356944
11312.875044
4200.595344
35058.068644
176473.927744
782884.112413

65240.3427

11

12

Series2

Error2
0.00
13,456.00

3,552.16
150.19
118,582.09
262,084.36
193,855.26
721,559.49
655,034.34
873,528.99
1,522,768.23
1,960,124.49
6324695.588

527057.9657

Series2