Which EU to join?

Looking at recent speeches of the prime minister and the chief negotiator, one gets the impression that the European Union is making a modest comeback in Turkey. On a trip to Germany last week, Justice and Development Party (AKP) leader Recep Tayyip Erdoan confirmed that EU accession is still Turkey's strategic goal. For good reasons, he blamed the EU for not doing its part in making this possible, and for the first time announced a sort of unofficial deadline: 2023. I agree with Erdoan, in the sense that if and when Turkey is not able to become a member by its centennial, the whole accession process is doomed. In order to get in before 2023, both Turkey and the EU will have to engage in a serious restart, in 2014 at the latest. That was probably also the reason why Egemen Ba, the person responsible for such new dynamism on the Turkish side, said in an interview that he expected a meaningful push from the EU in 2013, after the crippling Greek Cypriot EU presidency comes to an end. I am not so sure whether next year is the most appropriate one for the start of what one could call the second part of Turkey's EU negotiations under AKP rule, after the first successful term from 2002 till 2005. The EU will still be obsessed with trying to get out of the economic and political crisis it is confronted with, and in the run-up to the German elections in September 2013 one should not expect a substantial change in Berlin's position on Turkey's EU membership. Still, the visit of Franois Hollande to Turkey in the beginning of 2013 could be the beginning of a more constructive phase in EU-Turkey relations. The French president, who does not share the ideological Turkophobia of his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy, is expected to announce the end of the French blockade of several chapters in the technical negotiations. That would be a highly important symbolic step in the right direction that would allow Turkey and the EU to start talking on some key issues. But we will need a new German government and some major breakthroughs in the internal EU struggle for a new institutional framework to prevent another crisis in the eurozone in order to be able to shift to a higher gear in the negotiations in 2014. A remarkable element in Erdoan's remarks on Europe in Berlin was his announcement that when Turkey becomes an EU member, it will not join the eurozone but keep the lira. He quoted British politicians and experts who had apparently been able to convince the prime minister and his advisers that Turkey should look for a British position in the EU: focus on the internal market, stick to its own currency and try to keep out of those European policies that are considered not in its own interests. That prospect touches on some of the key discussions in today's EU: How should a more integrated union be organized, both economically and politically, and will it be possible in the future to be a member of the EU without participating in the core group of countries that share a common currency and all the institutional arrangements that go with it? The UK, Sweden and Denmark have already opted for that position, in what is often called the second tier of the EU framework. It may well be that some of the new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe

will come to the same conclusion after witnessing the current euro crisis and the solutions that are being discussed. Joining the eurozone brings a lot of advantages, but it also means that countries have to give up large parts of their economic and financial sovereignty. I would be very happy if the words of Erdoan and Ba meant that Turkey would start discussing the real questions for every present and future member of the EU. What kind of further integration do we want, and what would be the benefits, the risks and the disadvantages of each model? It makes much more sense for Turkey to play a role in that debate than to stand on the sidelines, complaining about the bad treatment it is getting and missing out on the real decisions to be made about the union it apparently still wants to join one day.

Hangi ABye katlm?

Babakan ile ba mzakerecinin son konumalarna bakarak, ABnin Trkiyede mtevaz bir geri dn yapt izlenimine kaplabilirsiniz. AKP lideri Recep Tayyip Erdoan, geen haftaki Almanya ziyaretinde, AB yeliinin hl Trkiyenin stratejik hedefi olduunu teyit etti. Hakl olarak, AByi, yelii mmkn klmak iin stne deni yapmamakla sulad ve ilk kez bir tr gayri resmi mhlet aklad: 2023. Erdoann, Trkiye kuruluunun 100nc ylnda hl ye olamad takdirde tm katlm srecinin kmeye mahkum olduu grne katlyorum. 2023ten nce katlm iinse hem AB hem de Trkiyenin en ge 2014te ciddi bir yeniden balangca soyunmas art. Trk tarafnn yeni dinamizm gstermesinden sorumlu yetkili konumundaki Egemen Ban, bir rportajda, mzakereleri fel eden Kbrsn AB dnem bakanlnn bitmesinin ardndan, 2013te ABden anlaml bir atak beklediini sylemesi de muhtemelen bu yzden. AKP iktidarndaki Trkiyenin AB ile mzakerelerde 2002-2005 arasndaki ilk baarl dneminden sonra, deyim yerindeyse ikinci dnemi balatmak iin 2013n en mnasip tarihin olduundan pheliyim. Zira AB gelecek yl da siyasi ve ekonomik krizden kma abasndan baka ey dnemez olacak, stelik Eyll 2013te genel seime hazrlanan Almanyann, Trkiyenin AB yeliine yaklamn deitirmesi beklenemez. Yine de Franois Hollanden Trkiyeye 2013n banda dzenleyecei ziyaret, AB-Trkiye ilikilerinde daha yapc bir evrenin balangc olabilir. Selefi Nicolas Sarkozynin ideolojik Trkiye fobisini paylamayan Fransa Cumhurbakannn, teknik mzakerelerin pek ok bal zerindeki Fransz blokajnn kalktn duyurmas bekleniyor. Bu, doru ynde ok nemli bir sembolik adm olur ve AB ile Trkiyenin baz anahtar meseleleri grmeye balamasna imkan salar. Ama 2014te mzakerelerde vites artrabilmek iin nce yeni Alman hkmetinin kurulmas ve Euro blgesinde bir kriz daha kmasn nlemek iin gereken yeni kurumsal ereve yznden AB iinde kopan mcadelede byk ilerlemeler kaydedilmesi gerekir. Erdoann Berlinde yapt Avrupaya dair bir dier dikkate ayan aklama da, Trkiyenin AB yesi olursa, Euro kuana katlmayp liray tutacan duyurmasyd. Babakan, kendisiyle danmanlarn ABde ngiliz konumunu benimsemeye ikna etmie benzeyen Britanyal siyasiler ve uzmanlarla gr alverilerini de aktard: pazara odaklan, kendi para birimini brakma, lkenin karna addedilmeyen Avrupa politikalarnn dnda kalmaya al.

Bu gr, bugn ABde sregiden kilit tartmalarn bazsna dokunuyor: Daha btnlemi bir birlik hem ekonomik hem siyasi adan nasl rgtlenmeli? Ortak para birimi ve bununla balantl tm kurumsal dzenlemeleri paylaan lkelerin ekirdek grubuna katlmadan AB yesi olmak gelecekte mmkn m? Britanya, sve ve Danimarka, genelde AB yaplanmasnn ikinci ligi diye tabir edilen bu seenei imdiden tercih etmi durumda. Orta ve Dou Avrupadan baz taze yelerin de halihazrdaki Euro krizine ve nerilen zmlere tanklk ettikten sonra, ayn sonuca varmas muhtemel. Euro blgesine katlmak, beraberinde getirdii avantajlarn yan sra lkelerin ekonomik ve mali egemenliklerinden byk lde vazgemeleri anlamna geliyor. Erdoan ile Ban szleri, ABnin her mevcut ve gelecek yesinin kar karya geldii gerek sorular Trkiyenin de tartmaya balad anlamna geliyorsa, ok mutlu olurum. Ne trden daha fazla btnleme istiyoruz, her bir btnleme modelinin yararlar, riskleri, mahzurlar neler? Kenarda durup kendisine yaplan kt muameleden ikayet ederken, grne gre bir gn katlmay hl arzu ettii birlikle ilgili gerek karar alma srecini karmak yerine, bu tartmada bir rol oynamak, Trkiye asndan ok daha manal olacaktr.