Oil Market Report

Crude oil in the middle of this year’s soft spot

10 APRIL 2013

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil market
Brent crude is currently trading a dollar below our Q2 average forecast of $107.5/b. Currently in the seasonally weakest part of the year with OPEC production still high at 30.5 mb/d we expect the Brent price to continue to test the downside over the coming weeks, based on still soft demand, with the call-on-OPEC down to around 29 mb/d during the current quarter, and continued high cartel output. In addition there are also signs suggesting increasing production from several sources towards the middle of the year. However, considerable uncertainty surrounds these projected increases, although if they do occur they could certainly increase bearish pressures. With demand returning and growth solidifying, our price outlook for H2-13 is however still unchanged at $110/b. With markets increasingly optimistic concerning growth and recovery prospects, Brent crude was forced up to $120/b in early February. Subsequently however, it fell back due to continued high OPEC production during a seasonally weak period against a background of fairly weak global demand. Indicating an improving supply / demand balance, backwardation in the Brent crude oil curve has fallen sharply, with one year backwardation now down to only 3% and the front month actually in contango vs. the second. Recently resumed production from the North Sea Buzzard field (out for almost a year) has also helped undermine the market balance and soften Brent crude prices, especially as the field produces Fortis crude which normally sets the Brent crude price. Further, the likely removal of a South Korean tax break, which has supported the country's imports of North Sea Fortis crude since November 2011, by July is also eroding the bull-sentiment in Brent. In addition, several countries project increased production towards the middle of this year, with Yemen, South Sudan and Libya all promising higher output by then. Repeatedly, such hikes have been prevented by rebel groups blowing up oil pipelines, creating substantial uncertainty over whether or not they will actually occur with rebel attacks potentially reducing production instead. Bullishly, Iranian nuclear negotiations are leading nowhere with the latest talks in Kazakhstan producing no agreement whatsoever. Nor were any further discussions scheduled. Instead Iran celebrated its “National Nuclear Technology Day” a few days afterwards by opening new uranium facilities. If talks break down completely the US is likely to implement new sanctions fairly rapidly.

Crude oil price
(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, daily closing)
1 3 0 1 2 5 1 2 0 1 1 5 1 1 0 1 0 5 1 0 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 ja n -11 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -11 ju l-11 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -12 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -12 ju l-12 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -13 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3 7 0 N YM E XW T I IC E Bre n t

IEA global crude oil demand estimates
(mb/d)
9 1 ,5 9 1 ,0 9 0 ,5 9 0 ,0 8 9 ,5 8 9 ,0 8 8 ,5 8 8 ,0 8 7 ,5 8 7 ,0 8 6 ,5 8 6 ,0 8 5 ,5 8 5 ,0 8 4 ,5 se p -1 0 ju l-1 0 2 0 11 2 0 12 2 0 13

n o v-1 0

n o v-1 1

m a r-1 1

m a r-1 2

n o v-1 2

Chart Sources: IEA, Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

Current global crude oil demand estimates
2012 (mb/d) 89.8 89.04 88.83 Revision (kb/d) -40 -80 -20 2013 (mb/d) 90.6 90.00 89.67 Revision (kb/d) -60 -130 -10

IEA EIA OPEC

SEB average Brent crude oil price forecast
($/b) 2013 2014 2015 Q1 112 Q2 107.5 Q3 110 Q4 110 Full Year 109.9 110.0 115.0

2

m a r-1 3

se p -1 1

se p -1 2

m a j-1 1

m a j-1 2

ju l-1 1

ja n -1 1

ja n -1 2

ju l-1 2

ja n -1 3

1 1

1 3

1 5

1 7

1 9

2 1

2 3

2 5

2 7

2 9

1 5 0 1 4 5 1 4 0 1 3 5 1 3 0 1 2 5 1 2 0 1 1 5 1 1 0 1 0 5 1 0 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0

(ICE, $/b)

Crude oil

Crude oil price

SEB Oil Market Report

Brent futures curve

1 2 0 1 1 8 1 1 6 1 1 4 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 8 1 0 6 1 0 4 1 0 2 1 0 0 9 8 9 6 9 4 9 2 9 0

Speculative positions WTI

5

7

9

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

2 0 0 9

IC E Bre n t

2 0 1 0

N YM EXW T I

(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)

(NYMEX, lots, futures and options, vs. open interest, weekly data)

N e t
1 3 -0 4 -0 9 1 3 -0 3 -0 8 1 3 -0 2 -0 8

L o ng

Sh o rt

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3
m a j-1 3 a u g -1 3 n o v-1 3 fe b -1 4 m a j-1 4 a u g -1 4 n o v-1 4 fe b -1 5 m a j-1 5 a u g -1 5 n o v-1 5 fe b -1 6 m a j-1 6 a u g -1 6 n o v-1 6 fe b -1 7 m a j-1 7 a u g -1 7 n o v-1 7 fe b -1 8 m a j-1 8 a u g -1 8 n o v-1 8 fe b -1 9 m a j-1 9

2 0 1 3

9 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4 9 3 9 2 9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4

(NYMEX, $/b)

(daily closing)
m a j-1 3 a u g -1 3 n o v-1 3 fe b -1 4 m a j-1 4 a u g -1 4 n o v-1 4 fe b -1 5 m a j-1 5 a u g -1 5 n o v-1 5 fe b -1 6 m a j-1 6 a u g -1 6 n o v-1 6 fe b -1 7 m a j-1 7 1 3 -0 4 -0 9 1 3 -0 3 -0 8 1 3 -0 2 -0 8

WTI futures curve

Benchmark spreads

12 month time spread

(NYMEX/ICE, %, daily closing, >0: contango, <0: backwardation)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 -2 4 -2 6 -2 8

1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2

-4 -6 -8 -1 0

1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2

IC E Bre n t

N YM EXW T I

W T Im in u s Bre n t B re n tm in u sD u b a i B re n tm in u sU ra ls

3

ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3

ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3

SEB Oil Market Report

Crude oil
US crude oil inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
3 90 3 80 3 70 3 60 3 50 3 40 3 30 3 20 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye ar av e rag e 2 01 2 2 01 3

OECD total industry oil stocks
(mb, monthly data)
2 8 2 5 2 8 0 0 2 7 7 5 2 7 5 0 2 7 2 5 2 7 0 0 2 6 7 5 2 6 5 0 2 6 2 5 2 6 0 0 2 5 7 5 2 5 5 0 2 5 2 5 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye a r ra n g e , to p 5 ye a r ra n g e ,b o tto m 2 0 1 3 5 ye a ra v e ra g e

OECD Europe industry oil stocks
(mb, monthly data)
1 0 4 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 9 9 0 9 8 0 9 7 0 9 6 0 9 5 0 9 4 0 9 3 0 9 2 0 9 1 0 9 0 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye a r ra n g e , to p 5 ye a r ra n g e ,b o tto m 2 0 1 3 5 ye a ra v e ra g e

OECD North America industry oil stocks
(mb, monthly data)
1 4 0 0 1 3 7 5 1 3 5 0 1 3 2 5 1 3 0 0 1 2 7 5 5 ye a r ra n g e , to p 1 2 5 0 1 2 2 5 1 2 0 0 1 1 7 5 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye a r ra n g e ,b o tto m 2 0 1 3 5 ye a ra v e ra g e

OECD Asia & Oceania industry oil stocks
(mb, monthly data)
4 4 0 4 3 5 4 3 0 4 2 5 4 2 0 4 1 5 4 1 0 4 0 5 4 0 0 3 9 5 3 9 0 3 8 5 3 8 0 3 7 5 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye a r ra n g e, to p 5 ye a r ra n g e, b o tto m 2 0 1 3 5 ye a ra v e ra g e

OPEC production
(kb/d, Bloomberg estimate, monthly data)
3 3 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 9 0 0 0 2 8 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 O PE C -1 2p ro d u ctio n O PE C -1 1p ro d u ctio n

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, IEA, SEB Commodity Research

4

SEB Oil Market Report

European oil product markets
US refineries roared back into action in March as their maintenance periods came to unusually early ends, a fact also reflected in strong WTI performance vs. Brent. We expect European and Asian refinery activity to normalize during April. Overall, European cracks have recovered slightly since mid-March, despite the period being dominated by a tug-of-war between reduced supply (due to refinery maintenance) and weak demand generally. Abnormally low temperatures finally seem to be loosening their grip on continental Europe following a late winter cold snap that had little impact on middle distillate sentiment. With most cracks either weak or neutral, and the driving and agricultural seasons just around the corner, we see good prospects for stable or improving refinery economics going forward. Light ends: Light distillate cracks diverged dramatically during the second half of March, with gasoline recovering previously lost ground and naphtha once again falling back after outrunning fundamentals at the beginning of the year. As feedstock for the petrochemical industry, naphtha already suffers from a pricing disadvantage, as well as weak demand for gasoline blending, with stocks already apparently full up ahead of the driving season. With both the European and Asian petrochemical industries going into maintenance at the same time as refineries are coming back on-stream, we see little reason to expect much short-term strength in the naphtha market. However, relatively low inventories and the upcoming driving season could boost the market in the medium-term. Despite poor demand, good US and European inventory levels and turbulence caused by the switch from winter to summer grade gasoline, the gasoline market is currently supported by imminent increases in demand from drivers and solid demand from West Africa and South America. Middle distillates: As both the driving and agricultural seasons approach, increasing temperatures leave little downside in middle distillate cracks, which have recently received support from the late winter cold snap and refinery maintenance. Though refinery economics still favour diesel over jet, the diesel crack is holding its ground due to low inventories and an imminent pickup in expected demand. The jet market also awaits a seasonal upturn in demand, while Asian refineries are switching back from kerosene as the heating season comes to an end. With substantial quantities of jet set to arrive in Europe during April, most is likely to end up in contango storage plays. Heavy ends: Currently, in an otherwise lacklustre fuel oil market, Asian demand shows signs of improvement. Despite several cargoes headed east in March more appear needed, which could help maintain control of already high European stocks. However, limited Chinese middle distillate requirements are currently dampening feedstock demand. Meanwhile, with both bunker and global utilities demand generally poor, downside risks appear to dominate fuel oil cracks, at least in the short-term.

European light end benchmarks
($/t, daily closing)
1 2 0 0 1 1 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 0 9 5 0 9 0 0 8 5 0 8 0 0 7 5 0 7 0 0 ja n -11 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -11 ju l-11 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -12 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -12 ju l-12 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -13 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3 J e t fu e l D ie se l1 0p p m G a so il 0 .1 % 6 5 0 N a p h th a G a so lin e

European middle distillate benchmarks
($/t, daily closing)
1 1 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 0 9 5 0 9 0 0 8 5 0 8 0 0 7 5 0

European fuel oil benchmarks
($/t, daily closing)
7 7 5 7 5 0 7 2 5 7 0 0 6 7 5 6 5 0 6 2 5 6 0 0 5 7 5 5 5 0 5 2 5 5 0 0 4 7 5 H ig h su lp h u r fu e lo il (3 .5 % ) L o w su lp h u r fu e lo il (1 .0 % ) ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3

5

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US gasoline and distillate inventories
(DOE, mb, weekly data)
2 4 0 2 3 0 2 2 0 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 9 0 1 8 0 1 7 0 1 6 0 1 5 0 1 4 0 1 3 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d G a so lin e 5 ye a ra v e ra g e G a so lin e2 0 1 3 D istilla te fu e lo il 5 ye a ra v e ra g e D istilla te fu e lo il 2 0 1 3

US product benchmarks
(NYMEX, ¢/gal, front month, daily closing)
3 6 0 3 5 0 3 4 0 3 3 0 3 2 0 3 1 0 3 0 0 2 9 0 2 8 0 2 7 0 2 6 0 2 5 0 2 4 0 2 3 0 G a so lin e H e a tin go il

US refinery utilization
(%, weekly data)
9 1 9 0 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 4 8 3 8 2 8 1 8 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 2 0 0 8 -2 0 1 2a v g . 2 0 1 3

ICE Gasoil and European premiums to Gasoil
($/t, daily closing)
1 1 0 0 1 0 7 5 1 0 5 0 1 0 2 5 1 0 0 0 9 7 5 9 5 0 9 2 5 9 0 0 8 7 5 8 5 0 8 2 5 8 0 0 7 7 5 7 5 0 IC EG a so il 0 .1 % (le ft) J e t fu e lp re m iu m (rig h t) D ie se l1 0p p mp re m iu m (rig h t) 1 1 0 1 0 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0

European product cracks
($/b, daily closing)
3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m ar-1 1 a pr-1 1 m aj-1 1 ju n -1 1 jul-1 1 au g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n ov-1 1 de c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m ar-1 2 a pr-1 2 m aj-1 2 ju n -1 2 jul-1 2 au g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n ov-1 2 de c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m ar-1 3 a pr-1 3 -2 5 N ap h th a J e t fu e l L ow su lph u r fue l oil D ie se l1 0p pm G asolin e G asoil 0 .1 % H igh su lp hu r fue l oil

European low - high sulphur fuel oil differential
($/t, daily closing)
7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3

ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3

ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3
0

6

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
Regional 3-2-1 cracks
($/b, daily closing)
4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 3 0 2 8 2 6 2 4 2 2 2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Asia (M in a s) U S (W T I) Eu ro p e (Bre n t) Pe rsia nG u lf (D u b a i)

European naphtha stocks
(kt, monthly data)
1 8 0 1 7 0 1 6 0 1 5 0 1 4 0 1 3 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye a r ra n g e , to p 5 ye a r ra n g e ,b o tto m 2 0 1 3 5 ye a ra v e ra g e

European gasoline stocks
(kt, monthly data)
1 1 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 0 9 5 0 9 0 0 8 5 0 8 0 0 7 5 0 7 0 0 6 5 0 6 0 0 5 5 0 5 0 0 4 5 0 4 0 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye a r ra n g e , to p 5 ye a r ra n g e ,b o tto m 2 0 1 3 5 ye a ra v e ra g e

ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3

European jet fuel stocks
(kt, monthly data)
8 5 0 8 0 0 7 5 0 7 0 0 6 5 0 6 0 0 5 5 0 5 0 0 4 5 0 4 0 0 3 5 0 3 0 0 2 5 0 2 0 0 1 5 0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ye a r ra n g e , to p 5 ye a r ra n g e ,b o tto m 2 0 1 3 5 ye a ra v e ra g e

European gasoil stocks
(kt, monthly data)
3 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 9 0 0 2 8 0 0 2 7 0 0 2 6 0 0 2 5 0 0 2 4 0 0 2 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 1 8 0 0 1 7 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 5 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 j f

European fuel oil stocks
(kt, monthly data)
1 0 5 0 1 0 0 0 9 5 0 9 0 0 8 5 0 8 0 0 7 5 0 7 0 0 6 5 0 6 0 0 5 5 0 5 0 0 4 5 0 4 0 0 5 ye a r ra n g e , to p 5 ye a r ra n g e ,b o tto m 2 0 1 3 5 ye a ra v e ra g e

5 ye a r ra n g e , to p 5 ye a r ra n g e ,b o tto m 2 0 1 3 5 ye a ra v e ra g e

m

a

m

j

j

a

s

o

n

d

j

f

m

a

m

j

j

a

s

o

n

d

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, PJK International, SEB Commodity Research

7

SEB Oil Market Report

Oil products
US implied crude oil demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
1 5 ,8 1 5 ,6 1 5 ,4 1 5 ,2 1 5 ,0 1 4 ,8 1 4 ,6 1 4 ,4 1 4 ,2 1 4 ,0 1 3 ,8 1 3 ,6 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ya v g . 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3

US implied gasoline demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
9 ,7 9 ,6 9 ,5 9 ,4 9 ,3 9 ,2 9 ,1 9 ,0 8 ,9 8 ,8 8 ,7 8 ,6 8 ,5 8 ,4 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ya v g. 2 01 2 2 01 3

US implied distillate demand
(DOE, mb/d, weekly data)
5 ,4 5 ,2 5 ,0 4 ,8 4 ,6 4 ,4 4 ,2 4 ,0 j f m a m j j a s o n d 5 ya v g. 2 01 2 2 01 3

Gasoline arbitrage Rotterdam to New York
($/t, daily closing)
4 4 4 0 3 6 3 2 2 8 2 4 2 0 1 6 1 2 8 4 0 -4 -8 -1 2 -1 6 -2 0

Middle distillate arbitrage Rotterdam to New York
($/t, daily closing)
2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 -5 -1 0 -1 5 -2 0 H e a tin go il/G a so il J e t fu e l/Ke ro se n e

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

ja n -1 1 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -1 1 ju l-1 1 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -1 2 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -1 2 ju l-1 2 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -1 3 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3

-2 5

ja n -11 fe b -1 1 m a r-1 1 a p r-1 1 m a j-1 1 ju n -11 ju l-11 a u g -1 1 se p -1 1 o kt-1 1 n o v-1 1 d e c-1 1 ja n -12 fe b -1 2 m a r-1 2 a p r-1 2 m a j-1 2 ju n -12 ju l-12 a u g -1 2 se p -1 2 o kt-1 2 n o v-1 2 d e c-1 2 ja n -13 fe b -1 3 m a r-1 3 a p r-1 3

8

SEB Oil Market Report

Related energy markets
US natural gas price
(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)
1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

UK natural gas price
(ICE, front month, weekly closing)
1 5 1 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 $ /M M Btu (le ft a xis) G Bp /th e rm (rig h ta xis) 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0 1 5

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

Nordic power price
(Nord Pool, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5 2 0

Continental power price
(EEX, €/MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)
1 0 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0 6 5 6 0 5 5 5 0 4 5 4 0 3 5 3 0 2 5

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3 n o v-1 2

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

EUA price
(ECX ICE, €/t, December current year, weekly closing)
3 5 3 3 3 1 2 9 2 7 2 5 2 3 2 1 1 9 1 7 1 5 1 3 1 1 9 7 5 3

2 0 1 3

Coal price
(CIF ARA steam coal, API#2, daily closing)
1 3 5 1 3 0 1 2 5 1 2 0 1 1 5 1 1 0 1 0 5 1 0 0 9 5 9 0 8 5 8 0 7 5 7 0

n o v-1 0

m a r-1 0

ja n -1 1 m a r-1 1

n o v-1 1

m a r-1 2

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

2 0 1 2

9

m a r-1 3

m a j-1 0

m a j-1 1

m a j-1 2

se p -1 0

se p -1 1

se p -1 2

ju l-1 0

ju l-1 1

ja n -1 0

ja n -1 2

ju l-1 2

ja n -1 3

2 0 1 3

SEB Oil Market Report

Market indicators
MSCI World equity market index
(weekly closing)
1 7 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 5 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 0 0 8 0 0 7 0 0 6 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 0 0 8 0 0

UBS Bloomberg CMCI commodity market index
(price index, weekly closing)
1 8 0 0 1 7 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 5 0 0 1 4 0 0

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

JPM global manufacturing PMI
(monthly, PMIs >50 expansive)
5 8 5 6 5 4 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4

Regional PMI:s
(monthly data)
6 2 6 0 5 8 5 6 5 4 5 2 5 0 4 8 4 6 4 4 4 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 3 4 3 2 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0

U S Eu ro zo n e C h in a R e fe re n ce

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

Regional industrial production growth
(%, y/y, monthly data)
2 0 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -1 0 -1 2 -1 4 -1 6 -1 8 -2 0 -2 2 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0

2 0 1 3

OECD composite leading indicators
(monthly, 100 corresponds to long term trend growth in industrial production)
1 0 4 1 0 3 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 9 9 9 8

U S Eu ro zo n e C h in a

9 7 9 6 9 5 9 4

C h in a Eu ro zo n e O E C D U SA R e fe re n ce

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

9 3 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3

Chart Sources: Bloomberg, OECD, SEB Commodity Research

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2 0 1 3

2 0 1 3

SEB Oil Market Report

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11

SEB Commodity Research
Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodity Analyst bjarne.schieldrop@seb.no +47 9248 9230 Filip Petersson, Commodity Strategist filip.petersson@seb.se +46 8 506 230 47

www.seb.se