Critique of Vision 2030 Introduction The paper will look at the vision 2030 with a view of highlighting its
major achievements and drawbacks it has encountered in relation to the economy and tourism. Other areas that will be looked are the weaknesses as well as its overstated objectives that cannot be attained before the year 2030. This paper seeks to identify the underlying assumptions and comment on their legitimacy or whether they are factual; analyze the visions relevance to the current state of Kenya and to the emerging trends. Overview of vision 2030 According to the Ministry of Finance (2007), Vision 2030 development plan is based on three "pillars" namely; economic, social and political pillars. These pillars are in turn erected on a foundation of enablers notably macro-economic stability security, sound infrastructure, energy, ICT, public sector reforms, land use reforms, and human resources investment. The ECONOMIC PILLAR aims at providing prosperity of all Kenyans by the year 2030. In conservative terms, and this is the target government has given itself, Kenya must achieve a GDP growth rate of 10% per annum for the next 25 years beginning next year. As suggested by Hellen Sambili (2011), these sectors and the flagship projects contained in this pillar were chosen on the basis of their ability to generate high value- added, widespread employment opportunities, and their potential to draw high amounts of local and foreign investment. The bottom line, however, was that projects selected would position the country along the globally competitive suppliers of the goods or service concerned. This is because competitive, fast- growing countries always claim a greater and increasing share of global trade. The SOCIAL PILLAR seeks to build a just and cohesive society with social equity in a clean and secure environment whereas the POLITICAL PILLAR aims at realizing a democratic political system founded on issue-based politics that respects the rule of law, and protects the rights and freedoms of every individual in the Kenyan society. Even to the most optimistic Kenyan, it is hard to imagine that Kenya as a country will actually raise the prerequisite investment, maintain political stability and achieve national cohesion all of which are required to pave the roadmap to the year 2030.
According to the Institute of Economic Affairs(2009), Kenya found it necessary to interrogate vision 2030 by undertaking a SWOT analysis of the vision document to identify the underlying assumptions and comment on their legitimacy/whether they are factual; analyze the visions relevance to the current state of Kenya and to the emerging trends; review the applicability of the vision/ implementation strategy i.e. whether practical, sustainable as well as review policy and financing concerns and strategies. The analysis also assesses whether the vision document informs the tourism development or whether there are any inter-linkages or contradictions. The figure below show the Vision 2030 at a glance
Figure 1: Vision 2030 at a glance Source: NESC, 2007 By stimulating growth and fine-tuning the three pillars, the government hoped to turn Kenya into a rich country in the league of South Africa, Singapore and Taiwan, where industry and ICT drive growth. Projections had downgraded economic growth during this year to 4.3 per cent in Gross Domestic Product from the government's set 5.4 per cent (CfC Stanbic Bank, 2012). The Vision 2030 Medium Term Plan 2008-2012 targeted 10 per cent economic growth rate by 2012, which is expected to be carried through or
improved upon - towards 2030. But with drought hitting farming, which contributes a quarter of GDP, chances of touching even half of envisaged growth are slim. The economic pillar hinges on six sectors: tourism, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, business process outsourcing (BPO) and financial services. While growth in these sectors has not been negligible, it has not been fast enough to come within shooting distance of 2012 targets. Tourism dreams of two million tourists by 2012, bringing in Sh200 billion a year, yet steps to achieving this have been painfully slow. In terms of revenue, it brought in just Sh73 billion last year. Most flagship projects for the medium-term have yet to pick up except branding of premier parks which has targeted Maasai Mara, Amboseli and Nakuru and created new ones like Kakamega and Ndere. Agriculture, pummelled by postelection violence, has remained wobbly returning a disappointing growth of 2.6 per cent in 2009. When the MTP (Medium Term Plan) was drafted in early 2008 to accommodate the thinking of all parties in the grand coalition government cobbled to end the political standoff over the December 27 presidential election, it aimed at pushing GDP growth from 7.1per cent in 2007 to 4.5 in 2008, 7.9 per cent in 2009, 8.7 per cent in 2010, 9.4 per cent in 2011and 12 per cent by next year. This turned out to be mission impossible. Postelection violence dragged growth in 2008 to 1.7 per cent and, with recovery hamstrung by global recession, only managed 2.6 per cent growth in 2009. With a number of factors stuck against growth - inflation at 12.05 per cent and trending high, unstable political climate and below-normal rainfall - MTP targets in the key economic Vision 2030 pillars will likely fall behind. Prices of goods are up, thanks to high fuel prices and farms have poor yield, and so the envisaged growth in savings rate will slow down, purchasing power will drop, slowing manufacturing and eventually hurting the economy. But that does not negate the vision. The constitution has set the country for reforms needed to make Kenya a favorable destination for investors. The judiciary, loathed by businesses for corruption, is being cleaned and government has been devolved to spur growth in rural areas. Vision 2030 critics point out that its scope is limited on timelines. Yet the spirit of economic
prosperity is undying, as Kenyan struggle through employment and business to make their lives better. Registration of businesses has grown, foreign investors are trickling in and more professionals are heading back to class. Everyone, it seems, is aligning for Vision 2030. The new constitution could be the only ray of hope that will make vision 2030 possible as it carries with it many merits. This will only be possible if proper infrastructure is laid down in terms of proper policy formulation and enactment. Transformation caused by vision 2030 Vision 2030 hoped to achieve industrial growth through the production of products for both local and regional consumption. Vision 2030 aspires to do this through building industries from steel industries to fertiliser plants. According to Shikwati (2011), industrial growth is about value addition and its supportive economic sectors and not merely transforming a country into a huge supermarket for other producers. Double-digit GDP growth can be attained by striking oil and marketing it to the global market, but that will not have delivered quality life in terms of individual citizen's contribution to national development. Tourism Sector in relation to vision 2030 According to projected global trends in tourist travel by World Tourist Organization, long-distance haulage to destinations like ours will be one of the leading sub-sectors by 2020, when it is estimated to involve 400 million travelers (Hellen Sambili, 2011). Although Sub-Saharan Africans share of global tourism was only 3.6percent in 2009, WTO expects tourist arrivals to Africa, South Asia, and East Asia to grow faster than in other regions. Part of this is due to the novelty of these regions and the expected rise in the number of tourists from the newly-rich countries of Asia traveling abroad. In making our projections in tourism, the government was motivated by the knowledge that new technology and aircraft will make long-haul tourism even cheaper and hence available to more people. It is with the expectation of such mass arrivals that they expanded the capacity and facilities of our international airports and a national network of national airports and airstrips (Hellen Sambili, 2011). According to Wangui Maina(2007), repositioning of the Coast circuit, opening underutilized parks and providing niche products have been unveiled as the key drivers towards the government achieving Vision 2030 through the tourism sector. The strategy
aimed at making Kenya one of the top 10 long haul tourist destinations, offering diverse and high end experiences by 2012 to a target five million tourists. Sustainability of the vision 2030 in relation to the tourism sector Tourism is one of Kenyas major economic pillars, enjoying significant growth (13% p.a.) over past few years. It contributes to the largest contributor to foreign exchange earnings. The Kenya Vision 2030 aims tourism to be one of the top ten long-haul tourist destinations in the world, offering a high-end, diverse, and distinctive visitor experience. Kenya will achieve the objectives of vision 2030 by increasing the quality of service and charges in countrys premium safari parks Improving facilities in all under-utilized parks creating of new high value niche products like cultural, eco-sports and waterbased tourism investing in new conference facilities to boost business Attracting high-end international hotel chains Expanding her global and African market share by offering new products Expanding tourist expenditure per capita Improving her international marketing strategies.
A few years back Kenya has shown tourism growth improvement despite major global challenges that faced the sector, such as rising oil prices and health scares, (including fears of avian flu) and advisories against international travel to Kenya. The Kenya tourism board has contributed to strategic international advertising which has increase the growth. For Kenya to attain the long-haul destination status, addressing constraints facing the sector and implementing strategic projects to improve the quality and breadth of Kenyas tourist should be implemented. This includes: Encouraging domestic and regional tourism in order to even out fluctuations occasioned by the decline of visitors during the traditional low seasons. Policies and strategies must be put in place to mitigate unintended adverse outcomes, such as child prostitution and drug abuse
Environmental degradation. In the recent years climate change has really affect the tourism sector .climate change is affecting most of the tourist attractions and affecting the ecosystem.
Situation analysis for tourism is always done to attain the strengths, weakness, threats and opportunities. Strengths include Employment-Tourism accounts for close to 10 per cent of Kenyas GDP and 9 per cent of total formal employment. The average spending per tourist in Kenya is lower than in other destinations (e.g. tourist expenditure per capita is 70 per cent more in Egypt). This shows that Kenya has enormous potential for increasing tourist arrivals and overall earnings. While the number of tourists and length of stay have been increasing over time, average spending by a tourist per day has been low compared to competing destinations. Kenyas tourism sector offers a varied set of products that respond differently to price changes. Coast tourism, for example, is highly competitive and sensitive to price changes, while premium parks (e.g. Amboseli, Maasai Mara and Samburu) and niche products (e.g. community and eco-based tourism) are so unique that they can be marketed successfully at higher prices. Consequently, the strategies to be developed for the sector will ensure that these differences are taken into account Achievements The achievements of vision 2030 are so enormous that some can go unmentioned. Some of the achievements are as follows: infrastructure and roads
The Vision 2030 achievements in this sector go beyond the impressive Nairobi-Thika highway and its inter-changes, important as it is for all of us. There has been spectacular progress spread in all parts of the country. The countrys total generated electricity in Gigawatt/Hours rose from 5,547 GwH in 2005 to 6,468 GwH in 2009. Unfortunately, the past drought have slow down the progress the country has made in that regard. But it is also worth noting the attention paid to rural electrification bringing rural families and
institutions into the national electricity grid. But emphasis has also been placed on electricity connections to schools, market centres, health centres and administrative centres. Economy
The true test of how well an economy is serving its people depends on GDP growth and its distribution to the people in a fair manner and in a way that changes their livelihoods for the better. Planning under the Kenya Government has always believed in the policies of growth with redistribution because without expanding the pie there will never be enough to redistribute in a way that improves our peoples lives. For this to happen, macro- economic stability is a must, and we have done quite well in that regard. Despite the decline in GDP growth in 2008 the economy has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to bounce back. The drivers of this growth have been diverse: tourism, building and construction, the stimulus economic package by the Kenya Government, transport and communications. Challenges and opportunities In order to exploit the growth opportunity in the tourism sector, the following challenges should be addressed: Increasing hotel/bed capacity: With the recent increase in tourist arrivals, the bed occupancy levels during the peak season are close to full capacity (92 per cent). As a result, hotels and lodges are struggling to cope with the rapid growth in demand, principally due to limited investment in tourist accommodation in the last decade. During the Vision 2030 period, It will be necessary to substantially increase investment in this area, particularly to enhance bed capacity. Product quality and diversity: Tourism in Kenya is currently concentrated in only 7 parks, which receive 80 per cent of the total number of visitors to the countrys 26 wildlife sanctuaries. There is, therefore, great potential in targeting the remaining 19 parks and\reserves. In addition, only 18 per cent of Kenyan hotels are in the 4-5 star categories, which is significantly lower than the average of 40 per cent in competing long-haul destinations such as South Africa .To increase our competitiveness, there is a need to expand our product choice and the quality of our facilities and services. This will also lead to higher spending by tourists. The Government will work with the private
sector to achieve the necessary improvements and expansion, with a focus on niche products, resort cities, business and safari tourism. Improving and extending infrastructure: Despite recent improvements in the state of infrastructure there is need for further investment in the sector, particularly, to improve roads in key resorts and also new parks targeted as destinations of additional tourists. Additional infrastructure will also be required for proposed resort cities together with the new tourist products in high potential areas. This will include upgrading of our international airports in the country and construction of new aerodromes and roads to and within the parks. In addition, there will be a need to secure animal migrations routes and rehabilitate and extend infrastructure, particularly in the coastal region. Efforts will be made to upgrade other support services that have been straining to cope with increased numbers. Marketing Kenya as a tourist destination : The Government will promote aggressive advertising campaigns to inform potential tourists about Kenyas attractions and facilities in order to increase her global market share. Such advertising will target high spending tourists in traditional and new markets. Specific focus will be given to Kenyas top five sources of tourists (i.e. UK, USA, Germany, Italy and France) as well as other highpotential markets (e.g. Scandinavia, India, South Africa and Japan). In addition, it will be necessary to expand domestic and regional tourism. Substantial resources will be devoted to marketing new tourists attractions. In the year, 2004 Kenya spent approximately US$4 million on marketing the country as an attractive tourist destination, while our long-haul competitors, such as Thailand and South Africa, spent US$214 million and US$61 million respectively. To add value, national parks and reserves will be branded according to their various attributes. Together with all these efforts, the tourism sector will benefit from the completion of the Brand Kenya initiative, which will market Kenya as an international destination and also create a sense of national pride. Improvement of security: In the past, Kenyas tourism sector has suffered from negative publicity on insecurity, both real and perceived. One of the major sources of this insecurity has been political instability in the region, which has led to increasing crossborder traffic in small arms. Other sources of insecurity include cattle rustling, income inequalities, unemployment and the alshabaab terrorism has great increase the security
concerns. Vision 2030 has proposals to deal with these problems under the three pillars. To improve the security situation within the country, the Government is strengthening the overall capacity of the Kenya Police that will include training and new equipment and buildings. Kenya has also been involved in peace-making initiatives in the region which are already paying dividends. The Government will continue to allocate more resources to improve the overall security situation in the country. Strategic leadership and coordination: While significant improvements have been achieved in the last four years, there is still room for better coordination and collaboration among public and private sector players. This will avoid unnecessary competition and duplication of marketing efforts. The Government will institute proactive measures to coordinate the various players in the sector and also address strategic initiatives and concerns, especially those related to international tourism. Conclusion All this indicates that Kenya can achieve the globally competitive standards that it seeks to achieve under the Kenya Vision 2030, even before 2030. Whatever the challenges it must maintain that determination.
References 1. Bulletin of the Institute of Affairs (2007). Future search:A critique of Vision 2030. Issue 7. 2. Jarret Adams, et al(2011). A system dynamics model analysis for Kenya Sustainability. 3. Mulunda Luke (2011) Kenya: A Reality Check On Vision 2030 Available at http.www.allAfrica.com accessed on 21st June, 2012 4. Sambili Hellen (2011) The Kenya Vision 2030 : Rationale And Progress Made So Far. Institute of Economic Affairs(2009) 5. Wangui Maina(2007) Kenya: Role of Tourism in Vision 2030
