METODOS DE POBLACION FUTURA CALCA

a) Mtodo Aritmtico
N

AO

POBLACIN

1981

8,132

2003

14,448

2007

19,312

P i+1 - P i

t i+1 - t i

r = (Pi+1 - Pi) / (t i+1 - t i)

6,316

22

287.09

4,864

1,216.00

donde:

751.55
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

2000
2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

14,051
22,318
29,082
36,598
44,113
51,628
59,144
66,659
74,175
81,690

2011
Pf = Po +r (t-to)
Pf =

22,318

b) Mtodo de Inters Simple

N
1
2
3

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

AO
1981
2003
2007

POBLACIN
8,132
14,448
19,312

2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

P i+1 - P i

t i+1 - t i

6,316
4,864

22,511
29,710
37,709
45,708
53,706
61,705
69,704
77,703
85,701

r = (Pi+1 - Pi) / (Pi x (t i+1 - t i))

22
4

2011
Pf = Po [ 1 + r(t -to)]
Pf =

0.02
0.06

0.041

0.041

22,511

37,709.03

c) Mtodo Geomtrico
N
1
2
3

AO
1981
2003
2007

POBLACIN Dt = t i+1 - t i
8,132
14,448
22
19,312
4

r = (Pu/Po)^(1/Dt)
1.03
1.08

1.05
2011
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

23,550
36,803
60,437
99,249
162,985
267,653
439,537
721,804
1,185,340

Pf = Po r ^(t-to)
Pf =

23,550

d) Mtodo de la Parbola
N
1
2
3

AO
1981
2003
2007

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

POBLACIN Dt = t i+1 - t i
8,132
14,448
22
19,312
4

8,132 = 0^2 A + 0 B +C
14,448 =10^2 A + 10 B + C
19,312 =20^2 A + 20 B +C

26,639
67,430
111,375
153,867
194,908
234,496
272,632
309,317
344,549

C=
6,316 = 100 A + 10 B
11,180 = 400 A + 20 B
(12,632)
11,180
(1,452)
A=
6,316
6,316
46558
B=
A=
B=
C=

8,132
-2

=-200 A -20B
=400 A + 20 B
=200 A
(7.26)
=100 X -110.14 +10B
=-11014+10B
10B
4655.8
(7)
4,656
8,132

e) Mtodo de los incrementos variables

N
1
2
3

AO
1981
2003
2007

POBLACIN
8,132
14,448
19,312

DP

D2P

6,316
4,864

(1,452)

11,180

(1,452)
DP =
D2P =

5590
-1452

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

21,722
26,296
29,998
32,249
33,047
32,393
30,288
26,730
21,721

0.4
1.3
2.3
3.3
4.3
5.3
6.3
7.3
8.3

f) metodo logaritmico o Exponocial

N
1
2
3

AO
1981
2003
2007

POBLACIN
8,132
14,448
19,312

Dt
22
4

ln(Pi+1/Pi)

0.575
0.290

0.0261
0.0725

0.0493
4
Pf = Po e ^r*(t-to)
Pf =

23,525

g) metodo de los minimos cuadrados

N
1
2
3

AO
1981
2003
2007

SUMATORIA
PROMEDIO

(Xi)
POBLACIN
8,132
14,448
19,312

Yi
77.67
33.67

LOG(Yi)
1.890
1.527

Xi^2

41,892
(41,892)

111.33
37.11

3.42
1.14

274874128.00
91624709.33

1118000.00
372666.67

B
LOG(Pi+1/Pi)

B/A

(1+r)

0.250
0.126

0.0113
0.0315

h) metodo geometrico de interes compuesto

A
N
AO
POBLACIN
Dt
1
1981
8,132
2
2003
14,448
22
3
2007
19,312
4
4
2011

66,129,424
208,744,704

Xi*Yi
631,600
486,400

1.0113
1.0315

1.0214

Pf = Po*(r+1) ^(t-to)
Pf =

21,021

Xi*LOG(Yi)
15,371.47
22,064.78

37436.25
12478.75

Poblacin 1980
METODO
a) Mtodo Aritmtico
b) Mtodo de Inters Simple
c) Mtodo Geomtrico
d) Mtodo de la Parbola
e) Mtodo de los incrementos variables
f) Mtodo de la curva normal logstica
g) Mtodo de los mnimos cuadrados
h) Mtodo de la Parbola cbica
P 2011

Poblacin (2011)
22,318
22,511
23,550
26,639
21,722
23,525
21,021
19,235

PROBLEMA 01
a) Mtodo Aritmtico
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

AO
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

POBLACIN
25,865
43,350
76,160
80,865
110,361
118,342
153,886
167,402
187,622
207,841
228,061
248,280
268,500
288,719
308,939
329,159
349,378
369,598
389,817

P i+1 - P i

t i+1 - t i

17,485
32,810
4,705
29,496
7,981
35,544
13,516

r = (Pi+1 - Pi) / (t i+1 - t i)

10
10
10
10
10
10
10

1,748.50
3,281.00
470.50
2,949.60
798.10
3,554.40
1,351.60
2,021.96

2010
Pf = Po +r (t-to)
Pf =

228,061

b) Mtodo de Inters Simple

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

AO
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

POBLACIN
25,865
43,350
76,160
80,865
110,361
118,342
153,886
167,402
222,882
278,361
333,841
389,320
444,800
500,279
555,759
611,238
666,718
722,197
777,677

P i+1 - P i
17,485
32,810
4,705
29,496
7,981
35,544
13,516

t i+1 - t i

r = (Pi+1 - Pi) / (Pi x (t i+1 - t i))

10
10
10
10
10
10
10

2010
Pf = Po [ 1 + r(t -to)]
Pf =

c) Mtodo Geomtrico
N

AO

POBLACIN

Dt = t i+1 - t i

r = (Pu/Po)^(1/Dt)

0.068
0.076
0.006
0.036
0.007
0.030
0.009
0.033

333,841

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

25,865
43,350
76,160
80,865
110,361
118,342
153,886
167,402
219,006
286,517
374,840
490,389
641,558
839,326
1,098,060
1,436,551
1,879,386
2,458,732
3,216,667

10
10
10
10
10
10
10

1.05
1.06
1.01
1.03
1.01
1.03
1.01
1.03
2010
Pf = Po r ^(t-to)
Pf =

374,840

d) Mtodo de la Parbola
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

AO
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

POBLACIN Dt = t i+1 - t i
25,865
43,350
10
76,160
10
80,865
10
110,361
10
118,342
153,886
10
167,402
20
158,890
128,350
75,782
1,186
(95,438)
(214,090)
(354,770)
(517,478)
(702,214)
(908,978)
(1,137,770)

118,342 = 0^2 A + 0 B +C
153,886 =10^2 A + 10 B + C
167,402 =20^2 A + 20 B +C
C=
35,544 = 100 A + 10 B
49,060 = 400 A + 20 B
(71,088)
49,060
(22,028)
A=
35,544
35,544
46558
B=
A=
B=
C=

118,342

=-200 A -20B
=400 A + 20 B
=200 A
(110.14)
=100 X -110.14 +10B
=-11014+10B
10B
4655.8
(110)
4,656
118,342

e) Mtodo de los incrementos variables

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

AO
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980

POBLACIN
25,865
43,350
76,160
80,865
110,361
118,342
153,886
167,402

DP

D2P

17,485
32,810
4,705
29,496
7,981
35,544
13,516
141,537

15,325
(28,105)
24,791
(21,515)
27,563
(22,028)
(3,969)
DP =
D2P =

20219.57143
-661.5

m
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

187,622
207,180
226,076
244,311
261,885
278,797
295,048
310,637
325,564
339,830
353,435

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

f) Mtodo de la curva normal logstica

N
1
2
3

AO
1960
1970
1980

Ps =
a=
b=
N
1
2
3
4
5
6

AO
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010

POBLACIN
118,342
153,886
167,402
19,810,687,484 <=
BIEN
285,744 <
BIEN
172,988
(0.773)
(1.314)
POBLACIN
118,342
153,886
167,402
171,449
172,572
172,876

23,680,900,996
307,772

3
4
5

7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

172,958
172,980
172,986
172,987
172,988
172,988
172,988
172,988

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

g) Mtodo de los mnimos cuadrados

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

AO
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090

POBLACIN
25,865
43,350
76,160
80,865
110,361
118,342
153,886
167,402
188,073
208,304
228,536
248,768
269,000
289,232
309,464
329,696
349,928
370,160
390,392

h) Mtodo de la Parbola cbica

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

AO
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060

POBLACIN
25,865
43,350
76,160
80,865
110,361
118,342
153,886
167,402
26,168
46,400
66,632
86,864
107,096
127,328
147,560
167,792

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
0.992303404
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
0.984666045
R^2 ajustado
0.982110386
Error tpico
6679.879996
Observaciones
8
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
AO

1
6
7
Coeficientes
-3838078.917
2023.191667

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
0.992303404
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
0.984666045
R^2 ajustado
0.982110386
Error tpico
6679.879996
Observaciones
8
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
AO

1
6
7
Coeficientes
-3838078.917
2023.191667

17
18
19

2070
2080
2090

188,024
208,256
228,488

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Pronstico POBLACIN
26217.16667
46449.08333
66681
86912.91667
107144.8333
127376.75
147608.6667
167840.5833

AO Curva de regresin ajustada

POBLACIN

y = 2023.2x - 4E+06
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
1900

1920

1940

1960

AO

METODO
a) Mtodo Aritmtico
b) Mtodo de Inters Simple
c) Mtodo Geomtrico
d) Mtodo de la Parbola
e) Mtodo de los incrementos variables
f) Mtodo de la curva normal logstica
g) Mtodo de los mnimos cuadrados
h) Mtodo de la Parbola cbica
P 2010

Poblacin (2010)
228,061
333,841
374,840
75,782
226,076
172,876
228,536
66,632
260,705

1980

-2

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
1.7192E+10 1.7192E+10 385.288481 1.1333E-06
267724781 44620796.8
1.746E+10
Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%
200490.479 -19.1434473 1.3142E-06 -4328661.81 -3347496.03 -4328661.81 -3347496.03
103.072786 19.6287667 1.1333E-06 1770.98146 2275.40187 1770.98146 2275.40187

Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
1.7192E+10 1.7192E+10 385.288481 1.1333E-06
267724781 44620796.8
1.746E+10
Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%
200490.479 -19.1434473 1.3142E-06 -4328661.81 -3347496.03 -4328661.81 -3347496.03
103.072786 19.6287667 1.1333E-06 1770.98146 2275.40187 1770.98146 2275.40187

Residuos
-352.166667
-3099.08333
9479
-6047.91667
3216.16667
-9034.75
6277.33333
-438.583333

gresin ajustada

POBLACIN

Pronstico
POBLACIN

1980

2000

Poly.
(Pronstico
POBLACIN)

uperior 95.0%

uperior 95.0%