14  theSun | THURSDAY APRIL 16 2009

INTERVIEWS VIEWS

Where does Thailand go from here?

by Vithoon Amorn
THAI Prime Minister Abhisit
Vejjajiva regained some of his
lost credibility after restoring
order in Bangkok on Tuesday, a
day after soldiers and red-shirt-
ed anti-government protesters
clashed in the streets.
With relatively few casual-
ties, Abhisit kept his pledge to
avoid bloodshed as soldiers
moved to enforce a state of
emergency declared on Sunday.
On Tuesday, the red-shirted
supporters of deposed former
Prime Minister Thaksin Shina-
watra left their final stronghold
peacefully.
Abhisit’s four months in
power hit a low point when
“red shirts” invaded the Asean
summit he was hosting last
weekend in the beach resort of
Pattaya, forcing him to cancel
the meeting, with leaders
evacuated by helicopter.
Here are some questions
and answers about what may
come next for Thailand:
How are markets likely to
react?
Financial markets, which
have been closed in Thailand
this week for a holiday, are
expected to react positively
to a quick, peaceful end of
the protests after the summit
debacle.
“The stock market may
bounce much more than you
would expect when it reopens
on Thursday, especially after
the bottom we have sunk to
when the summit was can-
celled,” economist Varakorn
Samakoses said.
But over the medium-term,
smart money will wait to see if
Thailand is just taking a break
from political protest or is in for
a prolonged period of stability.
The decision by Standard
and Poor’s to downgrade Thai-
land’s local currency sovereign
credit rating on Tuesday will
hit the baht, although the rating
agency affirmed the foreign
currency credit rating, albeit
STANDING DOWN ... A supporter of ousted Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra carrying a
poster which reads “We love Thaksin” leaving the Government House area in Bangkok on Tuesday.
with a negative outlook.
“We believe that investor
confidence has been damaged
significantly as a result of the
latest developments,” said S&P
analyst Kim Eng Tan.
What about Thailand’s ail-
ing economy?
Despite the quick end of this
round of demonstrations,
significant damage has been
done to an economy already
suffering from last year’s
political chaos and the global
recession.
Analysts said the “red shirt”
shutdown of the summit in
REUTERSPIC
Pattaya, and the violence on
display in central Bangkok on
Monday, showed that Thailand
remains politically unstable,
which will make investors
increasingly wary.
Tourism, a key component
of the Thai economy, will be
dented. Several countries is-
sued fresh warnings against
travel to Thailand during the
demonstrations.
“In the near term, inbound
tourism will be negatively af-
fected,” S&P’s Tan said.
He added that the sovereign
outlook could return to stable
“if investor confidence sees a
strong revival, likely on indica-
tions that the Thai domestic
political situation is returning
to a sustained equilibrium.”
What’s next for Abhisit?
Abhisit and his four-month-
old government have survived
their biggest test yet, giving the
Oxford-educated son of physi-
cians time to try to turn around
the recession-hit economy and
shore up his political position.
Analysts say Abhisit won the
public relations war by defus-
ing the protests without major
bloodshed. The “red shirts”,
on the other hand, lost public
support by inciting violence,
setting up roadblocks at major
intersections and bringing
Bangkok to its knees during the
Songkran New Year celebra-
tions this week.
Despite ending the tense
standoff, opposition to Abhisit
will not vanish. But the urbane,
44-year-old will have some
time – a few months at least – to
prepare his Democrat Party if
he chooses to call a snap elec-
tion as demanded by Thaksin’s
allies.
Although Thaksin himself
may be sidelined, his political
vehicle retains high popularity
among rural Thais, who make
up the majority of the 65 million
population.
Neither side is likely to get
an outright majority in general
elections, analysts say.
“So you would have another
potentially unstable coalition,”
said Danny Richards, senior
economist at the Economist
Intelligence Unit in London. “It
would depend what way the
smaller parties jump to decide
whether it was a pro-Thaksin
or Democrat-led government.”
Will the protesters come
back?
As weary “red shirt” demon-
strators left their stronghold
around Government House
on Tuesday, some said the
fight to get rid of Abhisit was
not over and vowed to return
later.
Abhisit has taken a fairly
soft line on the protesters so far
and has proudly touted the fact
that nobody died at the hands
of troops who were called in to
quell the protests.
But his government has ex-
tended the New Year’s holiday
for the remainder of the week
for “public safety” reasons, a
government spokesman said,
fearing “red shirts” may regroup
in Thaksin strongholds and try
coming into Bangkok again.
What’s next for Thaksin?
Thaksin’s chances for a return
to Thailand and its politics are
likely to have been severely
weakened by the end of the
rampage of his “red shirt”
supporters this week.
The former billionaire and
policeman, ousted in a 2006
coup, has been a figurehead
for the protests. They ramped
up significantly at his exhorta-
tions via phone-ins and video
link-ups from his place of
exile.
Thaksin’s opponents
say he sought to provoke a
bloody crackdown that would
feed a groundswell of support
for the 59-year-old populist
politician, still the only Thai
prime minister ever to have
won two elections – both by
landslides.
But with his loyalists aban-
doning their three-week siege
of Government House, his
gambit may have failed.
His enemies say Thaksin
has been bankrolling the
protests. But with his assets
frozen in Thailand following
his conviction last year for cor-
ruption and abuse of power,
many suspect he is running
out of money. – Reuters

The twists and turns

Here is a timeline tracing the recent political
turmoil in Thailand.
September 2005: Sondhi Limthongkul, a former
business associate of Prime Minister Thaksin Shina-
watra, starts the People’s Alliance for Democracy
(PAD) street campaign to oust Thaksin.
April 2, 2006: Thaksin wins a snap election called
to silence Sondhi. A court later nullifies the result.
Sept 19: Military stages a coup while Thaksin is at
the United Nations in New York. He flies into exile
in London.
Oct 1: Former army commander-in-chief Surayud
Chulanont is sworn in as interim prime minister.
May 30, 2007: Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party dissolved
for breaking election laws. He and 110 senior party
members are banned from politics for five years.
Aug 20: Voters endorse a new, military-drafted
constitution, the 18th in 75 years of on-off democ-
racy.
Dec 23: The pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP)
falls just short of outright majority in a general
election.
Jan 28, 2008: PPP leader Samak Sundaravej elected
prime minister.
May 25: PAD resumes street protests to overthrow
what it says is a “Thaksin puppet government”.
July 31: Thaksin’s wife Potjaman gets a three-year
jail term for tax fraud.
Aug 11: Thaksin and wife skip bail and flee to
London.
Aug 26: Thousands of PAD protesters storm Gov-
ernment House, Samak’s official compound, in an
attempt to unseat him.
Sept 2: Samak declares a state of emergency in
Bangkok after one person is killed and 45 hurt in
clashes.
Sept 9: Samak found guilty of violating constitution
by hosting TV cooking shows while in office and he
has to quit.
Sept 17: Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin’s brother-
in-law at the time, is elected prime minister by
parliament.
Oct 21: The Supreme Court sentences Thaksin to
two years in jail in absentia for breaking a conflict-
of-interest law.
Nov 25: PAD protesters storm Bangkok’s main
airport halting all flights. Up to 250,000 foreign
tourists are stranded.
Dec 2: Constitutional Court disbands the PPP, bans
Somchai from politics for five years. PAD protest-
ers say they will end blockade of Bangkok’s two
airports on Dec 3 after the ruling.
Dec 15: Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, an
Oxford-educated economist, becomes third prime
minister in as many months. About 200 red-shirted
demonstrators block access to parliament, accus-
ing him of being a stooge of the military.
March 26, 2009: Red-shirted Thaksin supporters
start a blockade of Government House.
April 10: The red shirts target an Asean summit in
the beach town of Pattaya.
April 11: Asean summit is cancelled after protest-
ers overwhelm riot troops and storm part of the
conference venue. Some of the 15 visiting leaders
are evacuated by helicopter.
April 12: Abhisit declares a state of emergency in
Bangkok. About 50 protesters force their way into
the Interior Ministry with Abhisit inside. He escapes.
Phoning his supporters at Government House, ex-
iled Thaksin calls for a “people’s revolution”, says he
would lead an uprising if there was a coup.
April 13: Army cracks down on protests in Bang-
kok with two people killed and 113 wounded in
clashes.
April 14: Protesters end their three-week siege of
Government House (pix), but vow to return. – Reuters