3

IF
A is true
THEN A is not false

IF
A is false
THEN A is not true

IF()THEN()


often
sometimes frequently hardly ever
IF-THEN

1944Ray Simpson355
20 often
1 100 1968 Milton Hakel


Ray Simpson(1944)

Always
Very often
Usually
Often
Generally
Frequently
Rather often
About as often as not
Now and then
Sometimes
Occasionally
Once in a while
Not often
Usually not
Seldom
Hardly ever
Very seldom
Rarely
Almost never
Never

Milton Hakel(1968)

99
88
85
78
78
73
65
50
20
20
20
15
13
10
10
7
6
5
3
0

Always
Very often
Usually
Often
Rather often
Frequently
Generally
About as often as not
Now and then
Sometimes
Occasionally
Once in a while
Not often
Usually not
Seldom
Hardly ever
Very seldom
Rarely
Almost never
Never

100
87
79
74
74
72
72
50
34
29
28
22
16
16
9
8
7
5
2
0

probably likely maybe perhaps

possibly
17

 0()1(
)
01

p ()

p ()

 s f

s
p () = p =
s+ f
f
p () = q =
s+ f

p+q=1

s = f = 1
() 0.5


A B A B

B
A
p(A|B)
B
A

 ABAB
AB
p (AB)Bp (B)

A B

p B A = p B A p A

p A B = p B A p A

p A B
p AB =
pB

(Bayesian rules)

p AB =

pBA p A
pB

:
p(A|B)BA

p(B|A) A B

p(A)A
p(B)B

p A Bi

i =1

p A Bi

i =1

B4

B3

p Bi

B1

B2

A
BB :

p(A) = p(A|B)

p(B) + p(A B) p(B)

p(B) = p(B A) p(A) + p(B|A) p(A)

:

p AB =

pBAp A
p B A p A + p B A p A

IF
THEN

E is true
H is true {with probability p}

EH
p
HE

pHE =

p EH p H
p E H p H + p E H p H

p(H)H
p(E|H)HE
p(H)H
p(E|H)HE

p(H)

p(H) H E
p(E|H) H E
p(E|H)

EHp(H|E) p(H|E)
HE

 H1 H2 Hm
E1 E2 En

EH1H2Hm
p Hi E =
m

p E H i p Hi

p E Hk

k =1

p Hk

H1H2HmE1E2En

p H i E1 E2 . . . En =
m

p E1 E2 . . . En H i p H i

p E1 E2 . . . En H k

k =1

p Hk

 (3-20)

(3-20)

p H i E1 E2 . . . En =
m

p E1 H i p E 2 H i . . . p En H i p H i

p E1 H k

k =1

p E 2 H k . . . p En H k p H k

E1E2
E3 H1 H2
H3 p (H1) p (H2)
p (H3)

i=1

i=2

i=3

p(Hi)

0.40

0.35

0.25

p(E1|Hi)

0.3

0.8

0.5

p(E2|Hi)

0.9

0.0

0.7

p(E3|Hi)

0.6

0.7

0.9

E3(3-19)

p H i E3 =
3

p E3 H i p H i

p E3 H k

k =1

i = 1, 2, 3

p Hk

0.6 0.40
p H1 E3 =
= 0.34
0.6 0.40 + 0.7 0.35 + 0.9 0.25
0.7 0.35
= 0.34
p H 2 E3 =
0.6 0.40 + 0.7 0.35 + 0.9 0.25
0.9 0.25
p H3 E3 =
= 0.32
0.6 0.40 + 0.7 0.35 + 0.9 0.25

E3H1
H2H3
H1H2

E1(3-21)

p Hi E1E3 =
3

p E1 Hi p E3 H i p H i

p E1 H k

k =1

p H1 E1E3
p H 2 E1E3

i = 1, 2, 3

p E3 H k p H k

0.3 0.6 0.40

=
0.3 0.6 0.40 + 0.8 0.7 0.35 + 0.5
0.8 0.7 0.35
=
0.3 0.6 0.40 + 0.8 0.7 0.35 + 0.5

0.5 0.9 0.25

p H3 E1E3 =
0.3 0.6 0.40+ 0.8 0.7 0.35 + 0.5
H2

0.25
0.25
0.25

= 0.19
= 0.52
= 0.29

E2

p H i E1E2E3 =
3

p E1 Hi p E2 H i p E3 H i p H i

p E1 H k

k =1

i = 1, 2, 3

p E2 H k p E3 H k p H k

0.3 0.9 0.6 0.40

= 0.45
0.3 0.9 0.6 0.40+ 0.8 0.0 0.7 0.35 + 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.25
0.8 0.0 0.7 0.35
p H 2 E1E2E3 =
=0
0.3 0.9 0.6 0.40 + 0.8 0.0 0.7 0.35+ 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.25
p H1 E1E2E3 =

p H 3 E1E2E3 =

0.5 0.7 0.9 0.25

= 0.55
0.3 0.9 0.6 0.40+ 0.8 0.0 0.7 0.35 + 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.25

H1H2H3
(E1E2E3)H1H3
H2

FORECAST:

FORECAST:

STEP 1: (3-24)
STEP2: (3-25,26)
STEP3: (3-27,28)

FORECAST:

FORECAST:
(RULE 1-6)
3-3

FORECAST:

IF

the symptom is odd noises

THEN

the starter is bad {with probability 0.7}

P(starter is not bad|odd noises)=

= p(starter is good|odd noises) = 10.7 = 0.3


IF
the symptom is odd noises
THEN the starter is good {with probability 0.3}

(0.3)

IF
the starter is bad (H)
THEN the symptom is odd noises (E) {probability 0.85}
IF
the starter is good (-H)
THEN the symptom is odd noises (E) {probability 0.15}

5%
p(H/E)=
0.85 0.05
p starter is bad odd noises =
= 0.23
0.85 0.05 + 0.15 0.95

0.7



(certainty factorcf)
+1.0(
) 1.0()

cf = 0.8

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2+0.2
+0.4
+0.6
+0.8
+1.0

IF
<evidence>
THEN <hypothesis> {cf }
cf E H

 MB
(H,E)MD (H,E)

MB (H, E) = max [ p(H |E), p(H ) ] p(H )

max [1, 0] p(H )

MD (H, E) = min [ p(H |E), p(H ) ] p(H )

min [1, 0] p(H )

if
=1
p(H
p()H)=1

otherwise

p(H

if p(H
) )=0
=0

otherwise

p(H)H
p(H|E)EH

 MB (H,E) MD (H,E) 01H

E

MB H, E MD H,E
cf =
1- min MB H,E , MD H, E

IF
A is X
THEN B is Y

IFAXB
Z
AXB

IF
THEN

A is X
B is Y {cf 0.7};
B is Z {cf 0.2}

:
cf (H,E) = cf (E) cf

IF
sky is clear
THEN the forecast is sunny {cf 0.8}
sky is dear0.5
cf (H,E) = 0.5 0.8 = 0.4

3-4


<evidence
.. E1>
.
AND <evidenceEn>
THEN <hypothesisH> { cf }

IF

H
cf (H,E1 E2En) = min [cf (E1), cf (E2),...,cf (En)] cf

IF
sky is clear
AND the forecast is sunny
THEN the action is wear sunglasses {cf 0.8}
sky is clear0.9forecast is sunny
0.7
cf (H,E1E2) = min [0.9, 0.7] 0.8 = 0.7 0.8 = 0.56

<evidence
.. E1>
.
OR
<evidenceEn>
THEN <hypothesis H> { cf }

IF

H
cf (H,E1 E2 En) = max [cf (E1), cf (E2),...,cf (En)] cf

IF
OR
THEN

sky is overcast
the forecast is rain
the action is take an umbrella {cf 0.9}

sky is overcast0.6forecast is rain0.8

cf (H,E1E2 ) = max [0.6, 0.8] 0.9 = 0.8 0.9 = 0.72

Rule 1: IF
THEN

Rule 2:

IF
THEN

A is X
C is Z {cf 0.8}

B is Y
C is Z {cf 0.6}

1 2 C
Z

(12)
(A is X B is Y )(C is Z)


cf1 + cf2 (1 cf1) if cf 0 andcf 0

cf1 + cf2
if cf 0 or cf 0
cf (cf1, cf2) =
1 min [|cf1|, |cf2|]

cf1 + cf2 (1 + cf1) if cf < 0 andcf < 0

cf1 1 H
cf2 2 H
|cf1| |cf2| cf1cf2