Mining Operations Costs

This model uses historical mining costs for the years 2006-2012 to project costs for the year 2013. The question is how to
line items for 2013 from historical values. The model does it in two very different ways. First, each row of historical costs
C7:I7, is fit with @RISK's Distribution Fitting tool. This leads to the forecasts (from various best-fitting or nearly best
column L. This is a "reasonable" approach, but it can be argued that 7 data values are not a sufficient basis for fitting a d
check when you try fitting these distributions, the histograms that are based on only 7 values have no obvious shapes, an
distributions are rather crude approximations. A second approach is to use a more general distribution, in this case the T
shown in column M. Each of these uses the minimum, average, and maximum values in the given row as the bottom, mo
parameters, and it specifies the last two parameters as the 10th and 90th percentiles. This allows the forecasts to be sligh
or above the maximum. Finally, both approaches can be tested by using a RiskSimtable function in cell J2, IF functions for
J, and running 2 simulations.

The bottom line is whether the choice of input distributions has much effect on the total cost outputs in the red cells. By
simulations, you should see that it definitely does make a difference. For example, the mean total cost in cell J46 is about
is, about 12% higher) with the Trigen inputs than with the fitted inputs. Again, the Trigen approach is arguably more reali

year 2013. The question is how to forecast the individual

First, each row of historical costs, such as the range
fitting or nearly best-fitting distributions) in
ot a sufficient basis for fitting a distribution. As you can
values have no obvious shapes, and the best-fitting
eral distribution, in this case the Trigen distribution, as
the given row as the bottom, most likely, and top
This allows the forecasts to be slightly below the minimum
function in cell J2, IF functions for the forecasts in column

al cost outputs in the red cells. By running the

mean total cost in cell J46 is about $100,000 higher (that
en approach is arguably more realistic in terms of using

Operating cost analysis: US Dollars per day

Production Year

Distribution type

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Mine
Drill & blast ore & waste
Excavate, load and haul waste
Excavate, load and haul ore
In pit crushing
Ore transport to mill
Stockpile store & reclaim
Mine services
Mine administration
Total

130,529
165,212
56,245
9,854
12,352
12,622
38,254
0
425,068

129,542
139,242
59,554
10,652
10,656
11,555
42,554
0
403,755

117,556
189,255
62,457
11,242
9,566
10,552
39,542
0
440,170

145,562
174,266
53,642
9,542
9,442
10,002
44,222
0
446,678

185,265
187,556
89,543
9,654
12,554
11,222
37,541
0
533,335

126,542
130,545
57,544
14,555
13,545
13,633
41,542
0
397,906

DOZ/IOZ UG
Development
Mining
UG crushing
Ore & waste haul
Ore transport
Ventilation & Dewatering
Mine services
UG administration
Total

0
68,525
1,232
0
3,822
42,522
13,525
6,542
136,168

0
77,225
1,122
0
3,561
3,521
14,565
7,522
107,516

0
69,521
1,337
122,901
4,100
4,566
17,854
7,225
227,504

0
129,565
2,147
21,292
5,685
5,522
22,545
11,582
198,338

0
146,252
3,745
35,445
9,554
7,854
8,524
16,755
228,129

0
87,542
3,310
31,225
7,542
6,521
19,552
15,242
170,934

Mill
Washing & screening
Gravity separation
Crushing
Grinding
Flotation
Concentrate thicken & filtration
Concentrate drying
Roast/calcine
Tailings disposal
Ore leaching
Cyanidation
Solvent extraction & EW
Mill services
Mill administration
Ore stockpile & reclaim
Total

2,353
0
5,635
93,542
44,365
3,542
0
0
0
3,565
11,554
2,522
21,224
25,454
8,642
222,398

1,950
0
4,201
94,251
45,224
4,512
0
0
0
2,425
9,865
3,544
18,522
22,441
7,854
214,789

3,421
0
6,521
92,254
41,242
7,512
0
0
0
4,554
6,655
4,323
23,252
42,352
6,521
238,607

2,355
0
7,545
101,542
52,211
8,643
0
0
0
6,546
4,521
5,232
33,251
35,121
8,654
265,621

3,142
0
4,521
103,415
56,224
6,115
0
0
0
6,545
7,845
6,552
25,454
28,542
9,854
258,209

2,254
0
3,954
98,541
47,512
6,221
0
0
0
6,544
8,654
4,522
22,454
33,241
7,544
241,441

Onsite mine & mill costs

783,634

726,060

906,281

910,637 1,019,673

810,281

Distribution type

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2012

2013

197,254
188,224
54,652
12,542
11,554
10,542
39,511
0
514,279

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0
79,652
3,383
35,222
3,542
4,521
22,552
16,522
165,394

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1,865
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8,652
96,224
43,646
4,321
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2,444
5,656
5,422
19,852
22,545
6,544
217,171

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