Professional Documents
Culture Documents
19 July 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks
Beverages
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
19 July 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
433.70
300.80
433.70
Neutral
Buy
Target
612
Beta
0.68
CHEMRING GROUP
321.10
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
366
0.66
COBHAM
279.90
190.10
293.40
Neutral
Neutral
302
0.83
MEGGITT
549.00
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
531
1.30
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1200.00
799.39
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1164
1.01
SMITHS GROUP
1396.00
1011.00
1396.00
Neutral
Sell
1167
0.77
1819.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Sell
1725
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
339.20
200.70
339.20
Neutral
Neutral
332
1.96
INCHCAPE
560.50
353.30
577.50
Neutral
Neutral
582
1.42
LOOKERS
110.00
64.50
110.50
Neutral
Sell
101
1.23
27.75
13.50
28.25
Neutral
Buy
39
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
317.05
150.55
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-823
1.94
741.00
510.60
769.90
Neutral
Buy
862
1.16
70.03
28.76
70.03
Sell
Sell
1.86
334.40
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-123
1.37
STANDARD CHARTERED
1534.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3382
1.65
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
554.00
415.00
588.50
Neutral
Sell
491
0.58
DIAGEO
2024.50
1656.00
2085.00
Neutral
Neutral
2206
0.53
SABMILLER
3260.50
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4354
0.93
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
373.60
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
445
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
340.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
552
1.21
CARCLO
365.75
342.75
503.00
Neutral
Sell
147
0.76
2600.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3370
1.06
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
232.40
191.50
275.00
Neutral
Buy
314
1.04
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2748.00
2080.27
2836.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4511
1.44
VICTREX
1595.00
1204.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1395
1.19
SYNTHOMER
195.00
137.00
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
385
1.11
ZOTEFOAMS
206.00
166.00
225.00
Neutral
Buy
294
0.99
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
105.00
61.50
105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
275
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
232.20
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1140
0.83
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
348.40
132.20
352.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
603
1.61
1.00
0.52
BELLWAY
1441.00
801.50
1455.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2834
2293.00
1343.00
2325.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3470
0.57
BOOT (HENRY)
184.50
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
362
0.76
1.11
834.00
451.00
851.50
Neutral
Buy
1037
CARILLION
281.20
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1526
1.10
CLARKE (T)
54.50
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
383
0.80
286.75
202.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1123
0.51
CRH
COSTAIN GROUP
1351.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
912
1.05
GALLIFORD TRY
1019.00
606.00
1019.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2922
0.95
KELLER
1140.00
397.00
1140.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2368
1.26
KIER GROUP
1395.00
1106.00
1486.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5277
0.94
65.00
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
223
1.05
1.32
142.00
76.00
142.00
Neutral
Buy
201
633.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4497
0.69
16.13
10.63
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
60
1.07
NORCROS
1268.00
565.78
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1984
1.04
REDROW
248.90
125.00
253.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
451
0.89
SIG
182.20
88.85
182.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
523
1.72
45.50
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4208
0.88
108.00
42.72
108.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
225
1.62
PERSIMMON
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1696.00
970.50
1696.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4370
1.92
WOLSELEY
3287.00
2237.39
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5947
1.37
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1064.00
997.00
1365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
52522
0.69
651.50
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2554
1.16
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
126.50
105.50
137.75
Neutral
Sell
-7105
1.27
INVENSYS
507.00
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
-24632
1.36
LAIRD
190.70
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Sell
-67518
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1340.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
-17413
1.11
RENISHAW
1580.00
1265.00
2081.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
341867
1.30
SPECTRIS
2035.00
1479.00
2470.00
Neutral
Sell
-1481
1.52
99.50
99.50
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-8
0.75
TT ELECTRONICS
158.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Sell
-53941
1.61
XAAR
860.00
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
-274
1.09
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
88.00
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
126
1.18
BODYCOTE
575.00
322.60
575.50
Neutral
Neutral
618
1.58
CASTINGS
407.50
291.00
412.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
646
0.94
VESUVIUS
408.00
263.19
408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
986
2.23
FENNER
335.10
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
527
1.46
HALMA
525.00
395.50
538.50
Neutral
Sell
368
0.77
439.25
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Buy
505
1.36
1372.00
776.00
1372.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5376
1.40
292.00
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
754
1.87
2750.00
2132.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
1373
1.03
261.90
178.10
281.80
Neutral
Sell
235
1.66
0.75
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
55.25
35.40
80.16
Neutral
Sell
40
SPIRAX-SARCO
2842.00
1903.48
2928.35
Neutral
Sell
2062
0.84
VITEC GROUP
567.00
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
437
1.41
WEIR GROUP
2193.00
1525.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2096
1.47
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
440.60
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
791
0.43
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
287.00
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
395
0.36
SAINSBURY (J)
391.10
312.50
396.50
Neutral
Buy
481
0.54
TESCO
368.20
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
198
0.66
81.50
22.50
100.50
Neutral
Sell
51
0.82
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1884.00
1243.00
2031.00
Neutral
Neutral
1867
0.59
CRANSWICK
1175.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2007
0.35
DAIRY CREST
492.70
327.30
503.50
Neutral
Sell
119
0.89
DEVRO
299.50
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
520
0.34
83.00
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
388
1.22
851.50
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1392
0.68
2766.00
2140.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
1718
0.52
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
25.00
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
35
0.67
507.00
261.70
507.00
Sell
Sell
402
0.47
1532.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
1093
1.27
693.00
585.00
701.50
Sell
Sell
319
0.89
44.18
14.97
44.18
Neutral
Buy
49
1.46
168.25
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
74
1.05
28.50
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
116
1.00
HALFORDS GROUP
374.00
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Buy
559
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
877.50
651.00
925.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1711
0.51
DARTY
Target
Beta
74.75
38.00
75.00
Neutral
Buy
105
1.19
KINGFISHER
392.90
254.10
392.90
Neutral
Neutral
418
0.87
482.40
317.10
485.00
Sell
Buy
566
0.61
61.50
44.50
71.00
Neutral
Buy
70
0.98
463.00
194.75
492.75
Neutral
Neutral
454
0.38
NEXT
4872.00
3185.00
4872.00
Sell
Neutral
4912
0.59
TED BAKER
1846.00
880.00
1865.00
Sell
Sell
858
0.54
88.00
41.75
89.00
Neutral
Sell
61
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
129.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
111
0.39
CONSORT MEDICAL
785.00
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
565
0.38
OPTOS
147.25
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Buy
167
1.23
795.00
638.00
795.00
Neutral
Sell
675
0.44
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
791.50
571.50
791.50
Neutral
Neutral
769
0.38
HEADLAM GROUP
357.00
265.00
378.75
Neutral
Sell
315
0.89
82.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
109
0.71
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
921.00
481.30
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
453
0.70
CSR
607.00
292.30
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1533
1.12
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
65.50
28.38
83.25
Neutral
Sell
24
0.94
284.00
273.10
624.00
Neutral
Buy
358
1.09
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
123.00
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
442
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
153.75
140.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-722
0.96
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1384.00
1019.00
1391.00
Neutral
Sell
-576
0.50
AMLIN
417.50
362.80
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1659
0.39
BEAZLEY
242.50
152.60
242.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1032
0.52
CATLIN GROUP
531.50
424.00
552.50
Neutral
Sell
479
0.22
HISCOX
606.00
428.39
606.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2060
0.41
0.33
ADMIRAL GROUP
878.00
710.50
917.00
Neutral
Buy
1305
129.60
107.30
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
789
0.39
NOVAE GROUP
490.00
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3725
0.41
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2520.00
2083.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3605
0.92
ENTERPRISE INNS
123.10
55.50
125.30
Neutral
Neutral
117
1.62
TUI TRAVEL
373.70
171.20
376.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
730
0.96
921.50
700.50
925.00
Neutral
Sell
623
0.25
GREENE KING
871.00
556.50
871.00
Sell
Sell
641
0.85
LADBROKES
201.90
153.80
243.10
Neutral
Buy
268
0.87
1996.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1713
1.12
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
555.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
594
1.37
410.00
253.20
410.00
Sell
Sell
283
0.96
127.80
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
62
1.23
13.50
5.61
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
77
1.18
162.40
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
585
0.97
0.70
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
557.50
315.50
557.50
Neutral
Sell
398
WETHERSPOON (JD)
667.50
445.00
670.00
Neutral
Neutral
708
0.56
WHITBREAD
3186.00
2047.00
3225.00
Neutral
Sell
2227
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
471.30
268.33
471.30
Neutral
Sell
262
0.79
MARSTON'S
151.30
107.20
154.70
Neutral
Sell
10
1.15
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
372.00
268.30
388.40
Neutral
Sell
350
1.17
CHESNARA
262.75
163.00
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
505
0.67
190.80
123.30
190.80
Sell
Strong Buy
480
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
199.00
151.90
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
400
1.52
PRUDENTIAL
1151.00
732.50
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1172
1.66
597.00
318.20
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6695
0.82
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
19 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
137.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1143
0.38
845.00
677.50
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1317
0.47
41.00
29.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-17
1.02
1.07
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
798.00
432.25
818.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4221
1105.00
714.00
1105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5991
0.98
INFORMA
504.50
350.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.61
ITE GROUP
295.00
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.49
ITV
159.00
70.40
161.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1482
1.44
1.22
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
JOHNSTON PRESS
16.63
5.09
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
914
1264.00
1119.00
1294.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
438
0.60
92.50
37.00
94.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2836
0.87
280.00
265.00
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1017
0.12
35.88
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
497
0.51
STV GROUP
151.75
81.50
152.50
Neutral
Sell
305
0.82
ST.IVES
157.00
67.50
166.50
Neutral
Sell
296
1.48
TRINITY MIRROR
120.00
26.50
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-414
1.60
UBM
706.00
588.50
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2595
1.31
WILMINGTON GROUP
164.00
88.00
166.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1340
0.86
WPP
1210.00
788.00
1210.00
Neutral
Sell
-670
1.28
HIBU
0.26
0.26
1.92
Neutral
Strong Buy
1008
0.98
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1377.50
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1151
1.84
188.75
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
186
1.07
ANTOFAGASTA
848.50
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
698
1.43
1881.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2336
1.49
GLENCORE XSTRATA
273.30
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
895
#NA
LONMIN
303.70
240.84
411.96
Sell
Buy
385
2.08
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4457.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2385
0.42
RIO TINTO
2948.50
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2256
1.54
2.90
8.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
131
0.94
832.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2279
2.25
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1135.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1197.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
873
BP
470.40
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
992
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
270.60
251.80
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-5
1.35
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
0.86
7.64
7.15
12.50
Buy
Strong Buy
99
0.87
836.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
547
1.37
1.43
53.00
48.50
97.00
Neutral
Sell
-59
361.40
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Buy
402
1.47
2330.00
2098.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8124
0.86
357.80
310.60
404.30
Buy
Buy
515
0.57
1112.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
697
1.08
906.50
720.50
906.50
Neutral
Sell
711
1.45
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
19 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
125.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
253
PZ CUSSONS
384.00
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
321
0.68
4693.00
3417.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4733
0.30
Beta
0.79
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.44
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-2
0.89
3305.00
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6485
0.49
BTG
392.40
300.30
414.30
Neutral
Sell
198
0.73
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
690.50
473.00
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
722
0.20
1727.00
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Neutral
1700
0.51
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.43
1.43
2.80
Strong Buy
Sell
0.60
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.96
2256.00
1727.00
2256.00
Neutral
Sell
1439
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
64.50
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
27
0.68
VERNALIS
19.50
19.50
27.38
Neutral
Sell
10
0.88
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
420.40
294.90
440.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1143
1.15
BRITISH LAND
614.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1317
1.05
34.00
22.75
37.00
Sell
Sell
-17
0.68
0.72
1000.00
645.00
1010.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4221
DERWENT LONDON
2477.00
1886.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5991
1.21
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
198.25
135.75
209.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
0.92
GRAINGER
171.00
85.50
171.00
Sell
Strong Buy
327
1.54
586.00
418.80
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1482
1.05
1.24
HAMMERSON
536.50
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
914
HELICAL BAR
284.50
178.00
297.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
438
0.77
964.50
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2836
1.14
INTU PROPERTIES
328.60
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1017
1.12
MCKAY SECURITIES
147.00
130.50
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
497
0.66
382.00
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
305
0.36
324.50
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
296
0.30
84.50
48.50
87.50
Sell
Sell
-414
1.04
0.73
614.50
365.00
614.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2595
SHAFTESBURY
637.00
516.00
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1340
1.02
SEGRO
303.50
221.60
303.50
Neutral
Sell
-670
1.80
ST MODWEN PROPS.
298.00
174.00
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1008
1.57
193.50
162.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
25
1.03
UNITE GROUP
382.00
207.50
389.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2251
1.78
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.00
1.00
2.52
Buy
Sell
-1276
0.96
442.00
242.25
446.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1580
0.98
www.intellisys.uk.com
19 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
135.00
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
133
0.73
2500.00
1774.96
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1552
1.49
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
512.00
332.19
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1435
0.88
KOFAX
335.50
255.00
345.75
Neutral
Neutral
346
1.07
29.25
18.25
29.50
Sell
Sell
26
0.78
767.00
529.08
767.00
Neutral
Buy
1071
0.80
PHOENIX IT GROUP
165.50
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
336
0.71
80.00
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-107
0.49
2080.00
1275.00
2137.00
Neutral
Buy
2290
0.79
357.10
280.06
368.18
Neutral
Buy
460
0.71
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
414.70
244.80
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1243
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
246.70
144.60
249.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
660
0.69
9100.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
95593
0.85
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
420.00
256.00
420.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1434
0.96
CHARLES TAYLOR
185.00
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1105
0.68
1065.00
729.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4865
0.85
98.80
80.10
110.40
Neutral
Sell
74
0.88
4.57
0.55
4.57
Sell
Sell
-127
0.65
1.44
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
172.30
90.55
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
808
ICAP
387.90
280.80
401.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
826
1.04
490.30
252.30
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2232
1.69
1.56
INVESTEC
LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
445.60
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1715
1590.00
930.00
1590.00
Sell
Strong Buy
6457
1.08
87.70
69.15
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4816
1.39
0.75
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1679.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5514
SCHRODERS
2486.00
1266.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8234
1.27
SCHRODERS NV
1919.00
1016.00
2000.00
Sell
Strong Buy
11261
1.25
www.intellisys.uk.com
19 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
223.50
157.75
247.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
868
0.90
AGGREKO
1800.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4294
1.16
AMEC
1056.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3426
1.10
730.00
240.50
730.00
Neutral
Buy
1020
1.65
1209.00
844.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2704
0.48
589.00
352.00
589.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2146
0.80
1396.00
1009.00
1396.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2885
0.52
587.50
215.00
590.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1479
0.41
1045.00
677.50
1055.00
Neutral
Sell
215
0.53
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
CAPITA
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
68.00
27.33
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
495
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
895.50
647.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2044
0.74
BERENDSEN
823.50
496.30
823.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3467
1.04
DE LA RUE
977.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1460
#NA
0.22
DIGNITY
1564.00
813.50
1568.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3174
DIPLOMA
606.00
417.10
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1567
0.97
ELECTROCOMP.
253.70
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
955
1.02
ESSENTRA PLC
759.50
460.50
762.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1427
1.14
G4S
217.00
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
914
0.54
HAYS
103.90
68.20
103.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
472
1.05
HOMESERVE
291.30
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1003
0.91
INTERSERVE
509.50
319.00
519.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3804
1.30
3076.00
2691.00
3453.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4956
0.81
50.00
27.13
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
120
1.10
0.68
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
25.88
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
223
MENZIES (JOHN)
729.00
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1876
1.40
422.00
346.20
451.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
866
1.37
MITIE GROUP
267.80
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1088
0.50
42.00
42.00
156.00
Buy
Strong Buy
724
0.28
OFFICE2OFFICE
1093.00
670.50
1102.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2261
0.72
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
223.50
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
744
1.40
REGUS
183.20
87.50
186.70
Neutral
Sell
58
1.40
95.95
70.35
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
277
1.29
REXAM
488.60
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1833
0.86
RICARDO
405.00
336.00
431.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1723
0.87
ROBERT WALTERS
219.25
176.25
234.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1042
1.19
RPC GROUP
438.40
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1575
0.79
RPS GROUP
218.50
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1031
1.51
SERCO GROUP
629.50
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2449
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
82.75
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
289
1.50
RENTOKIL INITIAL
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
59.00
22.25
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
319
1.23
181.00
82.00
181.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
580
0.64
57.25
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
342
0.94
385.00
287.00
397.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2183
0.80
89.50
42.00
89.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
631
0.82
www.intellisys.uk.com
19 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
332.10
210.20
344.00
Neutral
Buy
399
40.65
29.64
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
78
0.69
706.00
468.90
749.00
Neutral
Sell
180
0.57
Beta
0.89
83.20
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
110
1.23
1309.00
790.00
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
618
0.03
191.35
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Sell
39
0.51
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
285.00
178.00
291.00
Neutral
Sell
208
1.25
419.88
350.00
430.00
Neutral
Buy
543
1.06
CLARKSON
1870.00
1150.00
1870.00
Sell
Sell
1307
0.84
EASYJET
1406.00
530.00
1406.00
Neutral
Sell
773
0.74
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
93.25
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
230
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1060.00
590.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
792
0.75
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1595.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Buy
2186
1.00
NATIONAL EXPRESS
248.10
164.50
248.10
Neutral
Buy
294
1.40
1.33
NORTHGATE
362.75
195.50
369.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
714
STAGECOACH GROUP
331.50
265.90
334.40
Neutral
Buy
423
0.97
69.50
36.25
78.50
Neutral
Sell
-53
0.94
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
381.40
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Buy
534
0.50
NATIONAL GRID
764.50
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
890
0.45
PENNON GROUP
692.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Neutral
747
0.61
SSE
1621.00
1294.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2156
0.41
SEVERN TRENT
1761.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1484
0.34
720.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
707
0.48
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
19 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
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Intellisys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
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sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal
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Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided
solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you must contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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