MPS Feb 2013 Compendium

STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN
Monetary Policy Information Compendium

February 2013
Consolidated by
Monetary Policy Department

Monetary Policy Information Compendium February 2013
II

Tables and Graphs

Real Sector
x uiowth 1
x Saving and Investment 3
x Inflation 4
External Sector
x Balance of Payments 8
x Trade and Foreign Investment 9
x ulobal Economy 10
Fiscal Accounts and Debt
x Revenues, Expenditures, anu Fiscal Balances 12
x Government Bomestic Bebt 13
x External Debt 14
x Total Debt . 15
Monetary Aggregates
x Monetary and Credit Aggregates . 16
x Piivate Sectoi Cieuit . 18
x Key Indicators of Monetary Sectoi 19
x Tienus In Nonetaiy Aggiegates 20
Financial Markets
x Money Maiket . 21
x Foieign Exchange Naiket 27
x Capital Naiket . 29
x Financial Soundness Indicators 30
February 2013
Growth in Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) Sector (percent)
Nov-12 Nov-11 FY13 FY12
Overall 71.1 6.5 -1.9 2.4 1.2
Textile 20.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.0
Food, beverages and tobacco 12.4 6.1 0.5 8.0 4.2
Petroleum products 5.4 20.8 -12.7 10.5 2.8
Iron and steel products 5.4 35.8 -39.8 16.8 -33.1
Non-metallic mineral products 5.4 13.6 -4.7 3.3 2.3
Automobile 4.6 -8.6 -4.3 -8.7 -0.4
Fertilizer 4.4 3.9 -0.9 -14.5 -0.1
Pharmaceuticals 3.6 9.9 15.1 6.2 20.2
Paper and board 2.3 49.6 -1.0 33.7 9.6
Electronics 2.0 -35.3 26.7 -13.6 -8.9
Chemicals 1.7 0.5 -6.3 0.2 -5.9
Leather products 0.9 20.0 8.8 -5.1 9.1
Wood products 0.6 -22.7 -8.1 -19.2 -1.2
Engineering industries 0.4 -1.4 1.4 -10.9 -12.3
Rubber products 0.3 19.6 -24.6 30.0 -27.4
percent change percent change percent change
FY13
T
FY12
P
FY11
R
FY12
P
over FY11
R
FY12
P
FY11
R
FY12
P
over FY11
R
FY12
P
FY11
R
FY12
P
over FY11
R
Cotton
1
14.5 13.6 11.5 18.6 2.8 2.7 5.4 815 724 12.6
Sugarcane 58.5 58.0 55.3 4.9 1.0 1.0 5.9 55,486 55,997 -0.9
Rice 6.9 6.2 4.8 27.7 2.6 2.4 8.7 2,396 2,039 17.5
Wheat 25.8 23.5 25.2 -6.7 8.7 8.9 -2.6 2,714 2,833 -4.2
1
Cotton production is stated in million bales of 170 kg each.
P: Provisional; T: Target; R: Revised
Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and Planning Commission of Pakistan.
Major Crops
Growth
Annualized LSM growth of 2.4 percent is recorded in July-November FY13, which is twice the growth rate observed in July-
November FY12.
Weights Groups
YoY changes
Cumulative change
during Jul-Nov
Production targets of all the major crops for FY13 are significantly higher than the actual production in FY12.
(million tons) (million hectares) (Kg/hectare)
Production Area Under Cultivation Yield
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Overall LSM Growth (YoY)
FY12 FY13
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Overall LSM Growth (Cumulative)
FY12 FY13
Real Sector 1
February 2013
Growth Shares Contribution
3.1 21.1 0.7 2.4
3.2 6.7 0.2 -0.2
-1.3 2.1 -0.03 2.7
4.0 11.6 0.5 4.0
Industry of which 3.4 25.4 0.9 0.7
3.6 18.6 0.7 3.1
1.8 11.9 0.2 1.2
7.5 5.3 0.4 7.5
6.5 2.2 0.1 -7.1
4.0 53.5 2.1 4.4
1.3 9.6 0.1 0.9
3.6 17.1 0.6 3.5
6.5 4.8 0.3 -1.4
2.6 6.6 0.2 14.2
Real GDP (fc) 3.7 - - 3.0
Real GDP (market prices) 4.2 - - 3.0
FY12(P) FY11(R) FY10
Real GDP (fc, billion Rs) 6,029 5,815 5,644
Nominal GDP (mp, billion Rs) 20,654 18,033 14,804
Nominal GDP (mp, billion US$)
2
231 211 176
Growth Shares
3
Contribution
3
11.1 88.3 9.2 3.9
11.6 75.3 8.1 3.7
8.2 13.0 1.0 5.2
-10.2 10.8 -1.3 -5.6
-13.0 7.9 -1.2 -6.7
-1.6 2.9 0.0 -1.8
4.2 1.6 0.1 3.0
-125.5 -0.7 -3.8 16.3
-13.4 14.5 -2.3 2.4
10.0 15.2 1.4 -0.1
4.2 100.0 4.2 3.0
13.2 - - 1.5
3.7 - - 3.0
8.2 - - 2.6
Less indirect taxes plus subsidies
Small-scale
Consumption
Public plus general government
Net exports of goods and
nonfactor services
Finance and insurance
Public administration and defence
1
For FY12, LSM data pertains to July-February;
2
GDP in dollar terms is calculated using average exchange rate during the year.
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics;
R
: Revised;
P
: Provisional
3
Shares and contributions in GDP growth are based on real GDP(mp).
4
Domestic demand is calculated as sum of consumption, fixed capital formation and change in stock expenditures on real GDP.
Total domestic demand
4
GDP (fc)
Private
Expenditure Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 1999-00 (percent)
Government
Changes in stocks
Fixed capital formation
Private
GDP (market prices)
Exports of goods and non-factor
services
Imports of goods and non-factor
services
FY12
P
FY12
P
Provisional estimates show moderate recovery in GDP growth (3.7 percent) during FY12, though the target (4.2 percent)
was not achieved.
FY11
R
Growth
Services of which
Transport and communication
Construction
FY11
R
Growth
Livestock
Agriculture of which
Major crops
Large-scale
1
Product Approach - GDP at Constant Prices of 1999-00 (percent)
Minor crops
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade
4.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.4
4.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11R FY12P FY13
Growth in Agriculture (percent)
Actual Target
10.9
6.0
1.7
4.9
3.1
3.8
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Growth in Industry (percent)
Actual Target
7.1
6.1
3.9
4.7
5.0
4.6
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
Growth in Services (percent)
Actual Target
7.2
5.5
3.3
4.5
4.2 4.3
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
Growth in Real GDP at Factor Cost (percent)
Actual Target
Real Sector 2
February 2013
as percent of GDP
FY12
P
FY11
A. Investment 13.1 12.5 13.1
Gross fixed investment 11.5 10.9 11.5
Private sector 8.3 7.9 8.6
Public sector - 0.9 0.8
General government - 2.1 2.1
Change in capital stocks 1.6 1.6 1.6
B. National savings 11.2 10.7 13.2
C. Domestic savings - 8.9 13.3
Saving investment gap (B - A) -1.9 -1.7 0.1
Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors
1
FY11
As percent
of GDP
Percent share
in total
As percent
of GDP
Agriculture 0.9 10.4 1.1
Mining and quarrying 0.3 3.9 0.5
Manufacturing 2.0 22.2 1.9
Construction 0.1 1.6 0.1
Electricity and gas 0.4 4.4 0.7
Transport and communication 1.0 11.2 1.2
Wholesale and retail trade 0.3 3.9 0.3
Finance and insurance 0.2 2.1 0.3
Ownership of dwellings 1.6 18.2 1.5
Services 1.9 22.1 1.7
Total 8.8 100.0 9.4
1
Economic category wise distribution of government's gross fixed investment is not available.
P
: Provisional
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Planning Commission of Pakistan.
Saving and Investment
Investment as percent of GDP continues to fall.
Saving and Investment (at current market prices)
Target
FY13
Actual
FY12
P
Except services sector, all the major sectors have shown declining trend in gross fixed investment to GDP ratio.
8
11
14
17
20
23
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11R FY12P
p
e
r
c
e
n
t

o
f

G
D
P

Trends in Saving and Investment
Investment Savings
1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9
3.6
3.0
2.4
1.9 2.0
4.5
2.6
2.1
1.2
1.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.9
5.8
5.0
4.1
3.5
3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
a
s

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

o
f

G
D
P

Agriculture Manufacturing
Transport and communication Services
Others
Gross Fixed Investment of Private and Public Sectors
1

Real Sector 3
February 2013
MoM
1
MoM SA
2
YoY
3
12M moving
average
4
Jan-12 1.5 1.1 10.1 11.6
Feb-12 0.3 0.9 11.0 11.5
Mar-12 1.2 0.9 10.8 11.3
Apr-12 1.8 1.1 11.3 11.2
May-12 1.1 1.5 12.3 11.2
Jun-12 0.0 0.1 11.3 11.0
Jul-12 -0.2 -0.9 9.6 10.8
Aug-12 0.9 0.5 9.1 10.6
Sep-12 0.8 0.7 8.8 10.4
Oct-12 0.4 0.3 7.7 10.1
Nov-12 -0.4 0.0 6.9 9.8
Dec-12 0.2 1.4 7.9 9.7
Jan-13 1.7 1.2 8.1 9.5
3-year average for Jan. 1.5 1.0 10.7
Jan-12 1.5 0.93 9.2 13.5
Feb-12 -0.7 0.7 10.5 12.9
Mar-12 1.5 0.8 9.8 12.3
Apr-12 2.2 1.2 10.7 11.8
May-12 0.2 0.8 11.3 11.5
Jun-12 -0.2 0.1 10.3 11.0
Jul-12 1.8 0.1 9.1 10.4
Aug-12 0.9 0.0 8.5 10.0
Sep-12 0.7 0.4 7.6 9.8
Oct-12 -0.1 -0.2 5.8 9.3
Nov-12 -0.3 0.3 5.3 8.9
Dec-12 0.0 2.4 7.7 8.8
Jan-13 1.87 1.2 8.1 8.7
Jan-12 1.6 1.2 10.7 10.3
Feb-12 1.0 1.1 11.5 10.4
Mar-12 0.9 1.0 11.5 10.6
Apr-12 1.6 1.1 11.6 10.7
May-12 1.9 2.0 13.1 11.0
Jun-12 0.2 0.1 12.0 11.0
Jul-12 -1.7 -1.5 10.0 11.0
Aug-12 0.9 0.8 9.4 11.0
Sep-12 0.9 1.0 9.7 10.8
Oct-12 0.7 0.6 9.1 10.7
Nov-12 -0.4 -0.2 8.1 10.5
Dec-12 0.4 0.6 8.1 10.4
Jan-13 1.5 1.2 8.1 10.1
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP.
Inflation
(Calculated from price indices with base year 2007-08)
Headline CPI inflation (YoY) has increased to 8.1 percent in January 2013 from 7.9 percent in the previous month.
Food inflation (YoY) has increased to 8.1 percent in January 2013 from 7.7 percent in the previous month.
Non-food inflation (YoY) has remained at 8.1 percent in January 2013.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (percent change)
CPI - Food (37.48 % weight in basket) (percent change)
1
Month-on-Month;
2
Month-on-month changes in seasonally adjusted series;
3
Year-on-Year;
4
These changes are calculated on the basis of 12 month average of CPI over the 12 month
average of preceding year.
CPI - Non Food (62.52 % weight in basket) (percent change)
6.5
8.0
9.5
11.0
12.5
14.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

YoY 12 months moving average
CPI Inflation
5.0
9.0
13.0
17.0
21.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

CPI Food Inflation
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
13.5
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

CPI Non-Food Inflation
Real Sector 4
February 2013
MoM YoY
12M moving
average
Jan-12 1.1 10.3 10.0
Feb-12 0.7 10.7 10.1
Mar-12 1.0 10.9 10.2
Apr-12 1.4 10.9 10.3
May-12 0.8 11.2 10.4
Jun-12 0.7 11.5 10.6
Jul-12 1.1 11.3 10.7
Aug-12 0.3 10.8 10.8
Sep-12 0.4 10.5 10.8
Oct-12 1.2 10.2 10.7
Nov-12 0.2 9.8 10.7
Dec-12 0.5 9.8 10.6
Jan-13 1.2 9.9 10.6
3-year average for Jan. 1.1 10.0
Jan-12 0.8 10.4 11.6
Feb-12 0.5 10.7 11.7
Mar-12 0.8 10.5 11.7
Apr-12 1.3 11.0 11.5
May-12 0.5 11.7 11.5
Jun-12 0.5 11.1 11.5
Jul-12 0.7 10.7 11.4
Aug-12 0.4 10.6 11.1
Sep-12 0.5 10.4 10.9
Oct-12 0.7 9.7 10.7
Nov-12 0.2 8.8 10.5
Dec-12 0.3 9.2 10.4
Jan-13 1.0 9.9 10.3
3-year average for Jan. 1.0 10.8
MoM MoM SA YoY
12M moving
average
Jan-12 2.3 1.5 8.7 17.7
Feb-12 0.6 0.7 7.2 16.4
Mar-12 0.7 0.3 4.5 14.7
Apr-12 1.8 1.1 3.8 13.0
May-12 2.1 2.0 7.1 11.7
Jun-12 0.0 -0.2 6.4 10.4
Jul-12 0.4 0.3 7.2 9.4
Aug-12 1.0 0.7 7.7 8.6
Sep-12 0.3 0.8 7.8 7.9
Oct-12 0.1 0.5 7.5 7.3
Nov-12 -0.4 0.0 7.7 7.0
Dec-12 0.4 1.7 9.6 7.1
Jan-13 1.2 0.4 8.6 7.1
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP.
The non-food non-energy (NFNE) measure of core inflation has increased slightly to 9.9 percent (YoY) in January 2013 from
9.8 percent in December 2012.
Core - Non-food non-energy (53.52% weight in basket) (percent change)
The 20 percent trimmed mean measure of core inflation has increased to 9.9 percent (YoY) in January from 9.2 percent in
the previous month.
Core - 20% Trimmed (percent change)
The WPI inflation (YoY) has decreased to 8.6 percent in January 2013 from 9.6 percent in December 2012.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (percent change)
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Core Inflation- Non-Food Non-Energy
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Core Inflation- 20% Trimmed Mean
3.0
8.0
13.0
18.0
23.0
28.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

WPI Inflation
Real Sector 5
February 2013
MoM MoM SA YoY
12M moving
average
Jan-12 0.4 -0.3 12.5 15.7
Feb-12 -0.8 0.3 12.1 15.5
Mar-12 1.6 0.9 10.7 15.1
Apr-12 2.2 1.6 11.5 14.8
May-12 1.1 0.9 11.6 14.4
Jun-12 1.5 1.1 10.0 13.9
Jul-12 2.4 2.1 10.5 13.3
Aug-12 0.7 -0.3 9.3 12.6
Sep-12 0.3 0.1 7.7 11.8
Oct-12 0.2 0.8 7.3 11.0
Nov-12 -1.6 -1.0 6.4 10.2
Dec-12 1.3 3.2 9.6 9.9
Jan-13 1.7 1.0 11.1 9.8
Jan-12 3.5 2.7 6.5 19.1
Feb-12 1.4 0.9 4.4 17.0
Mar-12 0.1 -0.1 0.9 14.5
Apr-12 1.5 0.7 -0.5 11.8
May-12 2.8 2.6 4.4 10.1
Jun-12 -1.0 -0.9 4.2 8.4
Jul-12 -0.9 -0.9 5.1 7.1
Aug-12 1.2 1.3 6.7 6.2
Sep-12 0.4 1.2 7.9 5.5
Oct-12 0.1 0.4 7.7 5.1
Nov-12 0.4 0.7 8.6 5.0
Dec-12 -0.1 0.7 9.6 5.4
Jan-13 1.0 0.1 7.0 5.5
Headline Food Non Food
FY11 13.7 18.0 10.7 21.2
FY12 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.4
Jul-Jan FY12 10.8 11.4 10.3 14.2
Jul-Jan FY13 8.3 7.4 8.9 8.0
CPI
WPI
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD),
SBP.
Average CPI and WPI Inflation (percent change)
WPI food inflation (YoY) has increased sharply to 11.1 percent in January 2013 from 9.6 percent in December 2012.
WPI non-food (YoY) inflation has decreased to 7.0 percent in January 2013 from 9.6 percent in December 2012.
Average CPI inflation has declined to 8.3 percent during July-January FY13 against 10.8 percent recorded in July-January
FY12.
WPI - Food (38.82% weight in basket) (percent change)
WPI - Non Food (61.18% weight in basket) (percent change)
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

WPI Inflation - Food
-7.0
0.0
7.0
14.0
21.0
28.0
35.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

WPI Inflation - Non Food
6.5
11.0
9.0
9.5
12.0
9.5
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Actual Target
Target vs. Actual CPI Inflation
Real Sector 6
February 2013
MoM YoY 12m MA
1
MoM YoY 12m MA
1
I. Food group 37.5 1.87 8.1 8.7 0.0 7.7 8.8
Food and non-alcoholic beverages 34.8 2.0 7.6 8.3 -0.1 7.2 8.5
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 1.4 0.1 18.2 15.3 0.2 18.2 14.4
Restaurant & hotels 1.2 1.0 10.4 10.7 0.7 10.7 10.7
II. Non-food group 62.5 1.5 8.1 10.1 0.4 8.1 10.4
Clothing and footwear 7.6 0.8 15.3 15.4 2.0 15.8 15.4
Housing, water, electricity, gas fuels 29.4 1.8 3.6 6.2 0.1 4.1 6.6
Furnishing & household equipment
maintenance etc.
4.2 0.5 11.1 17.4 0.8 12.3 18.2
Health 2.2 0.5 13.7 13.8 0.4 14.3 13.6
Transport 7.2 3.2 10.9 14.5 0.2 8.9 14.8
Communication 3.2 3.8 5.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 -0.1
Recreation and culture 2.0 0.2 17.6 15.5 0.3 17.9 14.5
Education 3.9 0.1 9.9 10.8 0.1 10.0 10.9
Miscellaneous 2.8 0.3 10.5 14.2 0.4 11.3 15.0
Overall 100 1.7 8.1 9.5 0.2 7.9 9.7
7-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 24-Jan-13 17-Jan-13
MoM YoY
12m MA
1
Up to Rs 8000 0.16 0.03 -0.36 -0.33 1.92 9.2 7.6
Rs 8001-12000 0.10 0.01 -0.31 -0.36 1.79 10.9 9.3
Rs 12001-18000 0.06 0.02 -0.29 -0.40 1.65 10.3 9.0
Rs 18001-35000 0.01 0.03 -0.23 -0.43 1.62 6.0 7.5
Above Rs 35000 -0.06 0.13 -0.12 -0.43 1.39 3.3 6.8
All 0.02 0.06 -0.21 -0.41 1.56 7.1 8.0
1
Twelve month moving average inflation
2
WoW: Week on Week.
Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
WoW
2
Jan-13
CPI and SPI Inflation by Groups
Increase in headline CPI inflation (YoY) in January 2013 was due to rise in inflation of the food group.
Weights
Jan-13
Groups
SPI inflation (WoW) has increased marginally by 0.02 percent during the first week of February 2013.
Income groups
Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) (percent change)
Dec-12
Group-Wise CPI Inflation
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

YoY 12 Month moving average
SPI Inflation-Monthly
3
5
7
9
11
13
0
9
-
F
e
b
-
1
2

0
6
-
M
a
r
-
1
2

0
1
-
A
p
r
-
1
2

2
7
-
A
p
r
-
1
2

2
3
-
M
a
y
-
1
2

1
8
-
J
u
n
-
1
2

1
4
-
J
u
l
-
1
2

0
9
-
A
u
g
-
1
2

0
4
-
S
e
p
-
1
2

3
0
-
S
e
p
-
1
2

2
6
-
O
c
t
-
1
2

2
1
-
N
o
v
-
1
2

1
7
-
D
e
c
-
1
2

1
2
-
J
a
n
-
1
3

0
7
-
F
e
b
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

YoY 52 Week moving average
SPI Inflation-Weekly
Real Sector 7
February 2013
FY13 FY12
697 250 -2,426 -4,634
Trade balance -1,189 -7,614 -7,895 -15,481
Exports 1,819 12,011 12,051 24,657
Imports 3,008 19,625 19,946 40,138
Services (net) 583 260 -1,336 -3,030
Receipts; of which 1,207 4,161 2,587 4,950
CSF 668 1,807 0 0
Payments 624 3,901 3,923 7,980
Income (net) -230 -1,762 -1,578 -3,407
Receipts 84 272 489 820
Payments 314 2,034 2,067 4,227
Current transfers (net) 1,533 9,366 8,383 17,284
Receipts: of which 1,541 9,409 8,459 17,404
Remittances 1,135 7,117 6,325 13,186
Payments 8 43 76 120
-294 -539 612 1,634
Foreign direct investment (net)
1
239 510 489 749
Foreign portfolio investment (net) -17 160 -159 -159
Other investment assets -250 -718 -71 118
-350 -629 258 782
Of which : General government -62 14 271 1,043
147 963 1,022 2,129
209 980 751 1,529
C) Errors and omissions -46 -252 22 -280
Overall balance (A+B+C) 357 -541 -1,792 -3,280
SBP gross reserves
2
10,094 10,094 14,451 11,901
SBP net liquid reserves
3
8,987 8,987 12,875 10,799
FY13 FY12
Total inflows 1,135 7,117 6,325 13,187
USA 162 1,156 1,150 2,334
UK 159 1,005 726 1,521
Saudi Arabia 351 1,961 1,662 3,687
UAE 220 1,461 1,413 2,849
Other GCC
5
134 811 721 1,495
All others 108 723 653 1,300
Balance of Payments
With US$668 million of Coalition Support Fund, a surplus of US$357 million in overall external balance was recorded in December
2012.
Items Dec-12
Balance of Payments Summary (million US$)
FY12
Jul-Dec
Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP.
1
Net FDI equals net direct investment by foreigners in Pakistan less direct investment made by Pakistanis abroad.
Workers' remittances recorded an annualized growth of 12.5 percent during H1-FY13.
A) Current account balance
B) Capital and financial account
balance; of which
2
SBP gross reserves includes banks' deposits for meeting cash reserve requirements (CRR) against their foreign currency deposits and foreign currency cash holdings of SBP, but
it excludes unsettled claims on RBI.
3
SBP reserves without CRR, sinking fund, and foreign currency cash holding of SBP.
FY12 Dec-12
Workers' Remittances
4
(million US$)
4
Only cash,
5
Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.
Jul-Dec
Other investment liabilities
Disbursements
Amortization
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

FY12 FY13
Current Account Balance (Billion US$)
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

FY12 FY13
Capital & Financial Account Balance (Billion US$)
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

FY12 FY13
Overall Balance (Billion US$)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

FY12 FY13
Workers' Remittances (Billion US$)
External Sector 8
February 2013
FY13 FY12
Exports 1,819 12,011 12,051 100
Textile group 960 6,358 6,594 53
Knitwear, bed wear 287 1,942 2,268 16
Cotton cloth 202 1,286 1,315 11
Cotton Yarn 152 986 804 8
Readymade garments 117 820 696 7
Other manufactures group 308 2,254 2,178 19 1000
Chemical and pharma 76 597 613 5
Leather items
2
66 460 475 4
Cement 39 281 246 2
Engineering goods 31 181 179 2
Jewellery 2 83 25 1
Food group 301 1,784 1,765 15
Rice 155 752 921 6
All others 250 1,615 1,514 13
Imports 3,008 19,625 19,946 100
Petroleum group 1,004 7,198 7,087 37
Petroleum products 531 4,436 4,745 23
Petroleum crude 474 2,762 2,341 14
Machinery group 391 2,016 1,821 10
Telecom 98 429 462 2
Electrical machinery 44 293 233 1
Power machinery 53 277 237 1
Agriculture & other chemicals group 530 3,276 3,575 17
Plastic materials 116 735 708 4
Fertilizer manufactured 52 478 708 2
Food group 258 2,019 2,466 10
Palm oil 149 1,010 1,300 5
Tea 31 184 147 1
Metal group 177 1,161 1,118 6
Iron steel (IS) and IS scrap 143 943 893 5
All others 647 3,955 3,879 20
FY13 FY12
Net inflows: Of which 254 563 531 821
Major countries
USA 32 106 128 228
U.A.E. 38 -4 34 37
UK 23 100 197 206
China 2 8 59 126
Major sectors
Communication -13 -183 -106 -315
Financial businesses 28 140 44 64
Oil and gas exploration 139 303 345 629
Power 40 17 -30 -85
Trade -0.4 9 13 25
Memorandum Item:
Net overall FDI
3
239 510 489 749
Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP.
Dec-12 FY12
1
Share (in percent) is calculated as a ratio of cumulative flow of a group (item) to cumulative flow of total imports during FY13.
2
Includes tanned and manufactured leather.
Jul-Dec
3
These numbers correspond to net FDI flows given in the balance of
payments table and adjusted for net FDI made by Pakistanis abroad.
Trade and Foreign Investment
Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan (million US$)
Trade in Goods -Major Groups (million US$)
FDI inflows has recorded some marginal improvement in December 2012.
Led by a decline in import payments, the external trade deficit has narrowed by 3.6 percent during H1-FY13.
Shares
1
FY13
Dec-12
Jul-Dec
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

FY12 FY13
Net Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan (Million US$)

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

Export Receipts (Billion US$)
FY12 FY13
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

Import Payments (Billion US$)
FY12 FY13
-2.0
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
-0.4
0.0
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

Trade Balance (Billion US$)
FY12 FY13
External Sector 9
February 2013
Policy rate w.e.f
USA 0.25 Dec 16 2008 1.00 -75
UK 0.50 Mar 05 2009 1.00 -50
Euro zone 0.75 Jul 05 2012 1.00 -25
Japan 0.10 Dec 20 2008 0.30 -20
Canada 1.00 Sep 08 2010 0.75 25
Australia 3.00 Dec 04 2012 3.25 -25
China 6.00 Jul 06 2012 6.31 -31
India 7.75 Jan 29 2013 8.00 -25
Sri Lanka 9.50 Dec 23 2012 9.75 -25
Malaysia 3.00 May 05 2011 2.75 25
Indonesia 5.75 Feb 09 2012 6.00 -25
Thailand 2.75 Oct 17 2012 3.00 -25
Current account
balance
2 Fiscal balance
2
USA 1.7 2.6 -3.0 -7.0
UK 2.7 0.1 -3.6 -7.9
Euro zone 2.2 -0.6 1.0 -3.3
Japan -0.1 0.5 1.0 -9.8
Australia 2.2 3.1 -3.7 -0.9
China 2.5 7.4 2.8 -1.6
India 11.2 5.3 -4.2 -6.1
Sri Lanka 9.2 4.8 - -
South Korea 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.1
Malaysia 1.2 5.2 6.9 -4.7
Indonesia 4.3 6.2 -2.6 -2.4
Thailand 3.6 3.0 -0.1 -4.0
1
Annualized growth, measured as a percentage change over the same quarter of previous year.
2
Latest 12 months
3
The Economist, Economic and financial indicators, February 2, 2013
IMF
(Jan-13)
World Bank
(Jan-13)
OECD
(Jan-13)
World output 3.2 3.5 2.4 -
Advanced
5
1.3 1.4 1.3 -
US 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.0
Euro area -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Japan 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.7
UK -0.2 1.0 - 0.9
Emerging & Developing 5.1 5.5 5.5 -
Russia 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.8
China 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.5
India 4.5 5.9 6.1 6.5 5
For World Bank, projections are for "high income" countries.
ASEAN-5 5.7 5.5 - -
Sources: Bloomberg, World Bank, IMF, OECD, The Economist, World Economic Outlook, and Central Bank Websites.
Global Economy
Central banks of Australia, India and Sri Lanka have cut their policy rates during the last two months.
Policy Rates in Major Economies
Real GDP of Euro zone has continued to decline in Q3-2012.
For 2013, IMF forecasts the world output growth at 3.5 percent.
GDP growth
1
Q3-2012
Current
Change (bps) Major economies
Previous policy
rate
Inflation (YoY)
Dec-12
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
as a percent of GDP
3
World Economic Outlook - Real GDP Growth
2012
(IMF estimates)
2013 Projections
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
D
e
c
-
1
0

F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Inflation in Advanced Economies
USA UK Euro zone
Source: Central bank websites
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
D
e
c
-
1
0

F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Inflation in Regional Economies
China India Sri Lanka
0
2
4
6
8
10
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Policy Rates
USA UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Q
3
-
0
8

Q
4
-
0
8

Q
1
-
0
9

Q
2
-
0
9

Q
3
-
0
9

Q
4
-
0
9

Q
1
-
1
0

Q
2
-
1
0

Q
3
-
1
0

Q
4
-
1
0

Q
1
-
1
1

Q
2
-
1
1

Q
3
-
1
1

Q
4
-
1
1

Q
1
-
1
2

Q
2
-
1
2

Q
3
-
1
2

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

GDP Growth Rate
US UK Euro zone China India Sri Lanka
External Sector 10
February 2013
World Commodity Price Indices (2005=100)
Nov-12 End June-12
All commodity price index 182.4.1 0.94 7.36
Food price index 178.5 0.85 5.81
Energy index 188.4 0.21 9.22
Non fuel price index 172.2 2.38 3.99
Metal price index 192.1 5.82 3.77
Crude oil price ($/bbl) 110.6 -0.73 12.36
Cotton spot (US cents/ pound) 75.7 1.65 4.66
Palm oil ($/m. ton) 713.9 -3.93 -23.04
Soya bean Oil ($/m. ton) 1088.8 1.59 -0.82
Wheat ($/m. ton) 347.9 -3.63 25.96
Gold spot ($/Oz) 1675.4 -2.31 4.88
Sugar (US cents/pound) 22.6 -0.66 -21.39
Capital Market Indices
Dec-12 End June-12
US (DJIA) 13986.5 6.7 8.6
DJ EURO STOXX 2617.4 1.6 15.6
UK (FTSE 100) 6295.3 6.7 13.0
Japan (Nikkei 225) 11463.8 10.3 27.3
China (SSEA) 2548.3 7.3 9.3
France (CAC 40) 3642.9 0.1 14.0
Germany (DAX) 7581.2 -0.4 18.2
India (BSE) 19639.7 1.1 12.7
World dev'd (MSCI) 1408.4 5.2 14.0
Emerging Markets (MSCI) 1063.8 0.8 13.5
World all (MSCI) 355.5 4.6 13.9
1
Updated till February 6, 2013
Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, OECD, The Economist and Central Bank Websites
Major stock indices have shown considerable growth since end-June 2012.
Feb 2013
1
All commodity price index by IMF has registered an increase of 0.9 percent during December 2012.
Sources: Bloomberg for Crude oil price (Saudi Arabian Light), Cotton Spot and Gold spot.
IMF (IFS) for all other items
2
30 Yr Bond = $300 M (30 Yr US T bill+302 bps=>7.875%): Issued - Mar 24, 2006: Maturity - Mar 23, 2036
10 Yr Bond = $500 M (10 Yr US T bill+240 bps=>7.125%): Issued - Mar 24, 2006: Maturity - Mar 23, 2016
% change since
% change since
Dec-12
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
D
e
c
-
1
0

F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

Trends in Commodity Price Indices

(2005=100)
All primary commodity Food Energy Metal
Source: IMF-IFS
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

U
S
$

p
e
r

b
a
r
r
e
l

Daily Price of Saudi Arabian Light
Source: Bloomberg
8
10
12
14
16
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

10-year 30-year
Source: Bloomberg
Yields of Pakistan's Int'l Sovereign Bond
2

40
70
100
130
160
190
220
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

U
S

c
e
n
t
s

p
e
r

p
o
u
n
d

Source: Bloomberg
Daily International Cotton Prices
External Sector 11
February 2013
Revenues (billion Rs)
Total revenues 3,381 692 534 2,567
Tax revenue 2,584 451 409 2,053
Growth (YoY) % 25.9 10.3 28.9 20.8
of which: FBR revenues 2,381 400 374 1,881
Non-tax revenues 764 241 125 514
Growth (YoY) % 48.7 93.2 50.4 -7.2
Expenditures (billion Rs)
Total expenditures 4,486 976 791 3,936
Current
2
3,430 901 703 3,192
Growth (YoY) % 7.4 28.1 24.1 8.8
of which: Interest payments 926 313 177 889
Defence 545 117 107 507
Development Expenditure
2
1,041 75 88 744
Growth (YoY) % 39.9 -14.6 39.7 44.7
Overall Balance (billion Rs)
Fiscal balance
5
-1,105 -284 -257 -1,370
Revenue balance
6
-49 -209 -170 -626
Primary balance
7
-179 29 -80 -481
Fiscal balance -4.7 -1.2 -1.2 -6.6
Revenue balance -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -3.0
Primary balance -0.8 0.1 -0.4 -2.3
Financing of Fiscal Deficit (billion Rs)
Q1-FY13 Q1-FY12
Actual Actual
Financing 1,105 284 257 1,370
1. External: of which 135 -1.6 -4.4 128
Privatization proceeds 74 - - -
2. Domestic: of which 970 285 262 1,241
Non-bank 487 134 142 529
Banking system: of which 484 151 120 712
Schedule banks 484 564 223 204
SBP 0 -412 -104 508
FBR Tax Collection (billion Rs)
Direct Sales Customs FED
8
Total taxes
Q1 128 176 42 28 374
Q2 185 210 52 24 471
Q3 157 184 54 33 428
Q4 262 239 70 37 609
FY12 732 809 218 122 1,881
July 22 64 15 6 107
August 32 65 18 9 123
September 85 69 19 8 181
Q1FY13
9
139 197 52 22 411
October 45 61 17 12 135
November 55 65 18 11 149
Jul-Nov-FY13 239 324 87 45 695
Jul-Nov-FY12 210 310 73 47 639
Sources: Ministry of Finance (MoF), Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP.
1
Budget Estimates;
2
Estimated from Budget in Brief, MoF;
3
FY12 fiscal balance and its financing excluding the impact of debt consolidation of power and food sector;
4
GDP(mp) Target
by MoF for FY13 has been used to calculate deficit to GDP ratios;
5
Fiscal balance = total revenue - total expenditure;
6
Revenue balance = total revenue - current expenditure (note that
current expenditure are inclusive of unidentified expenditure);
7
Primary balance = total revenue - total expenditure + interest payment;
8
Federal excise duty;
9
Jul-Nov FY13 cumulative
collection as given by FBR, which slightly differs from FBR tax collection reported in fiscal accounts.
P
Provisional
Q1-FY13
Actual
Q1-FY12
Actual
Q1-FY13
Actual
Q1-FY12
Actual
Fiscal deficit in Q1-FY13 was mainly financed through borrowings from scheduled banks.
As percent of GDP
FY13
BE
1
FY12
3
Actual
Revenues, Expenditures and Fiscal Balances
Fiscal deficit was recorded at 1.2 percent of GDP in Q1-FY13.
FY12
Actual
FY12
Actual
FY12
3
Actual
FY13
BE
1
FY13
BE
1
FY13
BE
1
Q1-FY13
Actual
4
Q1-FY12
Actual
-9.0
-7.5
-6.0
-4.5
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
-1,500
-1,250
-1,000
-750
-500
-250
0
F
Y
0
8

F
Y
0
9

F
Y
1
0

F
Y
1
1

F
Y
1
2

F
Y
1
3
B
.
E

Fiscal Balance (billion Rupees)
Primary Revenue Fiscal Fiscal deficit as % of GDP (RHS)
70% 65% 71% 75% 80% 77%
30%
35%
21% 25%
20%
23%
8.0
9.4
10.8
12.2
13.6
15.0
0
750
1,500
2,250
3,000
3,750
F
Y
0
8

F
Y
0
9

F
Y
1
0

F
Y
1
1

F
Y
1
2

F
Y
1
3
B
.
E

Revenues (billion Rupees)
Non-tax Tax Total revenue as % of GDP (RHS)
81% 82% 78% 85% 81%
80%
19% 18%
22%
15%
19%
20%
10
13
16
19
22
25
0
900
1,800
2,700
3,600
4,500
F
Y
0
8

F
Y
0
9

F
Y
1
0

F
Y
1
1

F
Y
1
2

F
Y
1
3
B
.
E

Expenditures (billion Rupees)
Development Current Total expenditure as % of GDP (RHS)
19% 22% 20% 9% 9% 12%
13%
33% 47% 39% 39% 44%
67% 45% 33% 52% 52% 44%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
F
Y
0
8

F
Y
0
9

F
Y
1
0

F
Y
1
1

F
Y
1
2

F
Y
1
3
B
.
E

Shares in Total Financing of Fiscal Deficit
Domestic banking system Domestic non-bank External
Fiscal Accounts and Debt 12
February 2013
Debt by Owner - end period stocks (billion Rs)

1.Bank 5,055 4,427 628
Commercial banks 3,444 2,665 780
SBP 1,611 1,763 -152
2.Non-bank 3,272 3,209 62
National saving schemes (NSS) 2,387 2,131 256
Others 885 1,078 -193
3.Foreign currency instruments
1
1 1 0
Total(1+2+3) 8,329 7,638 691
Debt by Type - end period stocks (billion Rs)
1.Permanent debt 1,903 1,696 207
PIBs 1,120 975 145
Prize bonds 363 333 30
Others
2
420 388 33
2. Floating debt 4,400 4,143 257
MTBs 2,792 2,383 409
MRTBs-replenishment 1,608 1,760 -152
3.Unfunded debt
3
: of which 2,024 1,798 226
Saving schemes 1,901 1,676 225
4.Foreign currency instruments 1 1 0
Total(1+2+3+4) 8,329 7,638 691
Government domestic liabilities
4
175 242 -67
3
Funds mobilized through NSS excluding prize bonds.
4
d
Debt Servicing (billion Rs)
FY13
P
FY12
Permanent
5
93 60 142
Floating 286 177 377
Unfunded 121 115 298
Total 500 351 817
Indicators of Domestic Debt Sustainability
Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Dec-12
6
Debt stock as percent of
GDP 30.3 31.4 33.4 37.0 37.6
Debt servicing as percent
of FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Q1-FY13
7
GDP 4.5 3.9 3.6 4.0 3.6
Total revenue 31.2 28.0 28.7 31.8 38.9
Tax revenue 48.0 39.5 38.2 39.8 59.6
Total expenditure 22.8 19.3 18.8 20.8 27.6
Current expenditure 28.3 24.4 21.8 25.6 29.9
5
Includes prize bonds;
Sources: Central Directorate of National Savings (CDNS), Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP and Ministry of Finance (MoF).
Dec-12
P
Jun-12
R
Change since
Jun-12
Jul-Dec
6
Average GDP of Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan GDP(mp) Target for FY13 and PBS (Base FY00) GDP(mp) FY12 has been used to calculate the ratios.
7
The debt servicing to GDP ratio is annualized.
R
: Revised;
P
: Provisional
FY12
R
2
Includes market loans and GOP Ijara Sukuk 3 Years.
1
It includes FEBCs, FCBCs, DBCs and special USD bonds held by the residents.
Percent change during
Jul-Dec FY13
over Jul-Dec FY12
54.9
62.0
5.5
42.3
Government Domestic Debt
Dec-12
P
Stock of government domestic debt has increased by Rs691 billion during H1-FY13.
Interest payments on domestic debt have shown an annualized growth of 42.3 percent during H1-FY13 as
compared to the first half of FY12.
Jun-12
R
Change since
Jun-12
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Dec-12
a
s

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

o
f

G
D
P

Stock of Domestic Debt
Source: SBP, MoF
33% 35%
38% 37% 35%
39% 41%
22% 19%
20% 21%
23%
19%
19% 32% 32%
30%
28%
28%
28%
29%
1000
2500
4000
5500
7000
8500
J
u
n
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

Stock of Debt (by Owner)
Scheduled banks SBP NSS Others
Source: SBP, CDNS Source: SBP, CDNS
28% 27% 25% 24% 24% 24% 23%
54% 54%
53%
54%
54%
53% 53%
19%
19%
21%
22%
22%
23%
24%
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400
J
u
n
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

Stock of Debt (by Type)
Unfunded Floating Permanent
Source: SBP
63%
50% 45%
30%
36%
24%
27%
40%
41% 56%
46%
57%
9%
10% 14%
14%
17%
19%
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Jul-Dec
FY13
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

Interest Payments by Type of Debt
Permanent Floating Unfunded
Source: SBP
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9
18
27
36
45
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Q1-FY13
Debt Servicing (as percent of)
Total revenue Total expenditure GDP (RHS)
Source: SBP, MoF
February 2013
1. Public debt (a+b+c) 56,286 55,862 423 1. Public debt (a+b+c) 993 3,670
a) Government debt 46,855 46,123 732 a) Government debt
3
515 2,240
i)Long term (>1 year) 46,445 45,742 703 Principal 375 1,546
Paris club 15,329 15,014 315 Interest 140 694
Multilateral 25,660 25,406 254 b) To IMF 475 1,318
Other bilateral 2,603 2,469 134 Principal 444 1,154
Euro/Sukuk global bonds 1,550 1,550 0 Interest 31 164
Military debt 103 103 0 c) Foreign exchange liabilities 4 112
Commercial loans/credits 0 0 0 Principal 0 100
Local currency bonds (TBs & PIBs) 0 0 0 Interest 4 12
Saudi fund for development (SFD) 200 200 0 2. PSEs guaranteed debt 11 40
SAFE China deposits 1,000 1,000 0 Principal 6 31
NBP/BOC deposits 0 0 0 Interest 5 9
ii) Short term (<1 year) 410 381 29 3. PSEs non-guaranteed debt
3
49 208
IDB 388 377 11 Principal 44 179
b) From IMF 7,004 7,337 -333 Interest 5 28
i) Federal government 1,855 1,894 -39 4. Scheduled banks' borrowing
3
5 19
ii) Central bank 5,149 5,443 -294 Principal 5 18
c) Foreign exchange liabilities (FEL)
2
2,427 2,402 25 Interest 0 1
2.Public sector enterprises(PSEs) 1,586 1,524 62 5. Private guaranteed debt 0 0
a) Guaranteed debt 220 226 -6 6. Private non-guaranteed debt
3
46 339
b) Non-guaranteed debt 1,366 1,298 68 Principal 30 265
3.Scheduled banks 1,808 1,844 -35 Interest 17 74
a)borrowing 816 860 -44 7. Private non-guaranteed bonds 0 10
i) Long term (>1 year) 87 92 -5 Principal 0 0
ii) Short term (<1 year) 729 768 -39 Interest 0 10
b)Nonresident deposit(LCY & FCY) 992 983 9 1,104 4,285
4. Private sector 4,496 4,503 -7 Principal 903 3,294
a)guaranteed debt 0 0 0 Interest 201 991
b)non-guaranteed debt 4,496 4,503 -7 Memorandum Items
i)Loans 2,429 2,447 -18 13 195
ii)Private non-guaranteed bonds 124 124 0 1. Government debt 0 0
iii)Trade credit and others liabilities 1,943 1,932 11 2. PSEs non-guaranteed debt 13 149
2,067 2,100 -33 3. Scheduled banks' borrowing 7,450 20,079
Total external debt (excl. FEL) 63,816 63,431 385 Net flows
5
(39) 486
66,243 65,833 409 4. Private non-guaranteed debt 0 46
End period debt stock as percent of External debt servicing as percent of
Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Sep-12 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
6
FY12 Q1-FY13
7
GDP 28.2 32.3 32.5 31.5 28.4 28.3 1.9 2.9 3.3 2.0 1.9 1.9
Reserves 399.1 407.8 339.3 347.2 429.2 442.4 27.5 37.0 34.2 22.4 27.9 7.4
Exports 226.0 273.7 291.6 261.0 267.0 806.9 15.6 24.8 29.4 16.8 17.4 13.5
Sources: Economic Affairs Division and SBP(S&DWH)
External Debt
Stock of public sector external debt has increased by US$423 million during Q1-FY13.
Debt & Liabilities
1
- end period stocks (million US$)
Items
Debt Servicing (million US$)
Items Jun-12
R
FY12
R
Q1-FY13
P
Change
during
Q1-FY13
R: Revised; P: Provisional ;
1
External debt data format has been changed, as SBP enhances coverage & quality of external debt statistics by adopting Special Data Dissemination Standard, for more details visit
http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Revision-EDS.pdf.
2
Allocation of SDR and Nonresident LCY deposits with central bank added to FEL;
3
Only long term debt servicing included (Revised).
4
As per the guidelines available in IMF's
External Debt Guide for Compilers and Users 2003, the principal repayment of short term debt is excluded from over all principal repayments. However, for the information of data users, short term repayment of principle has
been reported as Memorandum Items;
5
Net flows of short term borrowings by banks reflect the net increase (+) or decrease (-) in the stock of short term bank borrowings during the period.
6
Only long term debt servicing
included from FY11 and onwards(Revised);
7
Average of Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan GDP(mp) Target for FY13 and PBS (Base FY00) GDP(mp) FY12 has been used to calculate Debt/GDP ratio(as used by SDWH)
and end period total liquid reserves are used. The ratio of GDP is annualized.
Stock of external debt, as percent of GDP, has declined to 28.3 percent by the end of Q1-FY13.
Total external debt & liabilities (1+2+3+4+5)
Total Long term external debt
servicing (1+2+3+4+5+6+7)
Sep-12
P
5.Debt liabilities
to direct investors-intercompany debt
Indicators of External Debt Sustainability
Short term debt servicing-principal
4
(excluding item No.3 below)
0
1
2
3
4
5
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12P Q1-FY13P
External Debt Servicing (billion US$)*
PSEs debt** Private debt and bonds** Schedule banks' borrowing Public debt
*Only Long term debt servicing included.
**PSEs and Private debt include guaranteed and non-guaranteed debt.
Scheduled banks' debt servicing captured from Jul-Sep 09 onwards.
Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP(S&DWH)
0
15
30
45
60
75
Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Sep-12

Debt Foreign exchange liabilities
Stock of External Debt & Liabilities (billion US$)
Source: Ministry of Finance and SBP
February 2013
Total Debt Stock (billion Rs)
Sep-12
P
Jun-12
R
Change during
Q1-FY13
Share in Q1-FY13
(percent)
I. Government domestic debt 8,120 7,638 482 53.6
II. Government external debt
1
4,445 4,364 80 29.3
III. Debt from IMF 664 694 -30 4.4
IV. External liabilities 230 227 3 1.5
V. Private sector external debt 598 601 -3 3.9
VI. PSEs external debt 150 144 6 1.0
VII. PSEs domestic debt 297 281 16 2.0
VIII. Commodity operations
2
447 438 9 3.0
IX. Intercompany debt 196 199 -3 1.3
Total debt & liabilities (I to VIII) 15,148 14,587 561 100.0
Total public debt (I to IV) 13,460 12,924 535 88.9
Total external debt & liabilities (II to VI &+ IX) 6,284 6,230 55 41.5
Commodity operations & PSEs debt (VI to VIII) 894 863 31 5.9
Total Debt Servicing (billion Rs)
Q1-FY13
P
FY12
R
Share in Q1-FY13
(percent)
Share in FY12
(percent)
Total Debt Servicing(A+B) 390 1260 100.0 100.0
A. Total interest payment on debt and liabilities (I+II) 305 966 78.1 76.7
I. Interest payment on debt (a+b) 288 901 73.8 71.5
a. Domestic debt 269 811 69.0 64.4
b. External debt 19 90 4.9 7.1
II. Interest payment on liabilities (a+b) 17 65 4.3 5.2
a. External liabilities
1
0 1 0.1 0.1
b. Domestic liabilities 16 64 4.2 5.1
B. Principal repayment of external debt and liabilities
3
85 294 21.9 23.3
Debt stock (as percent of GDP)
Sep-12
4
Jun-12
4
Jun-11
Total debt and liabilities 68.4 70.6 69.5
Total public debt 60.8 62.6 60.9
Total external debt and liabilities 28.4 30.2 31.6
Government domestic debt 36.7 37.0 33.3
PSEs debt and liabilities 4.0 4.2 5.1
Debt Servicing (as percent of)
Q1-FY13 FY12
P
FY11 FY10
GDP 1.8 6.1 5.6 6.6
Total revenue 56.4 49.1 45.0 47.1
Tax revenue 86.5 61.4 59.9 66.4
Total expenditure 40.0 32.0 29.4 32.5
Current expenditure 43.3 39.5 34.1 41.0
Source: CDNS, Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs Division and SBP
Total Debt
Stock of total debt and liabilities increased by Rs561 billion during Q1-FY13, mainly due to increase in government domestic debt.
Note: R: Revised; P: Provisional;
1
Rupee value of external debt and liabilities computed by applying the corresponding end period average exchange rate to the end-period stock;
2
This includes borrowings from banks by
provincial and Federal governments agencies for commodity operations;
3
This is excluding short term debt repayment;
4
Average of Planning Commission, GDP(mp) Target for FY13 and PBS (Base FY00) GDP(mp) FY12 has
been used to calculate Debt/GDP ratio.
1500
3500
5500
7500
9500
11500
13500
15500
Debt Stock (billion Rs)
Total external debt & liabilities Government domestic debt
Total debt & liabilities Total public debt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Debt Stock (as percent of GDP)
Total external debt & liabilities Government domestic debt
Total debt & liabilities Total public debt
February 2013
Monetary Assets of the Banking System (billion Rs)
Latest week A year ago
25-Jan-13 27-Jan-12
NFA 532.1 -26.9 -160.3 -248.1
NDA 7109.7 578.5 449.6 1194.7
Net government borrowings: of which 4258.0 578.1 734.6 1237.4
Net budgetary borrowing 3799.9 633.7 809.1 1198.3
Commodity operations 436.1 -54.5 -75.0 38.6
Non-government borrowings: of which 3652.2 134.7 -47.0 104.9
Private sector 3376.4 94.6 221.8 235.2
PSEs 257.2 40.2 -269.5 -130.5
Other items (net) -800.5 -134.3 -237.9 -147.6
M2 7641.8 551.6 289.3 946.6
Monetary Liabilities of the Banking System (billion Rs)
Currency in circulation 1,673.7 261.0 152.6 172.3
Total deposits with banks 5,959.1 289.6 137.6 775.5
Demand deposits with banks 4,712.4 227.9 10.8 588.9
Time deposits with banks 806.6 16.4 96.4 121.5
RFCDs with banks 440.1 45.3 30.4 65.2
M2 7,641.8 551.6 289.3 946.6
Percent Growth in Monetary Assets of the Banking System
25-Jan-13 27-Jan-12
NFA -18.5 -5.1 -20.5 -31.8
NDA 20.8 8.1 7.6 20.2
Government borrowings 28.8 13.6 24.3 41.0
Budgetary borrowing 30.0 16.7 31.1 46.1
Commodity operations 18.3 -12.5 -18.9 9.7
Non-government sector borrowings 8.2 3.7 -1.3 3.0
Private sector 3.2 2.8 7.1 7.5
PSEs 151.6 15.6 -69.5 -33.7
Other items (Net) 4.9 16.8 36.4 22.6
M2 17.3 7.2 4.3 14.1
Memorandum Items
25-Jan-13 27-Jan-12
Money multiplier 3.39 3.33 3.49
Currency to deposit ratio (percent) 31.0 31.1 28.1
M2 to GDP ratio (percent) 37.0 33.8 37.0
Private sector credit to GDP ratio (percent) 15.7 16.3 16.3
Note: All FY13 numbers are provisional; Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP
Monetary and Credit Aggregates
Government borrowing from the banking system remains the key driver of monetary expansion during July 1 -
January 25, FY13.
End June
2012 stocks
Cumulative flows
since end-June
FY12
FY12
flows
Since end June
FY12
YoY
(25-Jan-13)
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Weeks
Monetary Assets (M2) - Cumulative Flows since end June
-300
-240
-180
-120
-60
0
60
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Weeks
Net Foreign Assets - Cumulative Flows since end June
-200
10
220
430
640
850
1060
1270
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Weeks
Net Domestic Assets(NDA) - Cumulative Flows since end June
-160
-80
0
80
160
240
320
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Weeks
Private Sector Credit - Cumulative Flows since end June

Monetary Sector 16
February 2013
Monetary Assets of SBP
(billion Rs)
25-Jan-13 27-Jan-12
NFA 394.1 -81.4 -157.2 -219.9
NDA: of which 1794.8 310.5 288.8 443.0
Budgetary borrowing 1706.0 -193.9 141.7 505.3
Other items (net) -216.7 474.0 141.2 -36.6
Net impact of OMOs/discounting 100.7 492.1 192.9 37.0
Reserve money 2188.9 229.1 131.6 223.0
Monetary Liabilities of SBP
(billion Rs)
25-Jan-13 27-Jan-12
Currency in circulation 1673.7 261.0 152.6 172.3
Cash in tills 110.1 -2.3 -11.8 5.2
Bank deposits with SBP (reserves) 396.2 -30.6 -8.3 46.7
Other deposits with SBP 8.9 1.0 -0.9 -1.2
YoY
(25-Jan-13)
NFA of the SBP -31.5 -20.6 -25.6 -35.8
NDA of the SBP: of which 28.3 17.3 21.4 32.8
Budgetary borrowing 12.6 -11.4 11.8 42.1
Reserve money 15.3 10.5 6.7 11.3
Details on Government Borrowing for Budgetary Support (billion Rs)
25-Jan-13 27-Jan-12
Budgetary borrowing 3799.9 633.7 809.1 1198.3
Federal government 4064.5 688.4 773.6 1161.0
From SBP 1704.3 -147.6 116.4 464.5
SBP's holdings of MRTBs 1759.7 -151.6 83.3 442.2
From scheduled banks (SBs) 2360.3 836.0 657.3 696.5
Provincial governments -264.6 -54.7 35.4 37.3
From SBP
2
1.7 -46.3 25.3 40.9
From scheduled banks
3
-266.4 -8.4 10.1 -3.6
Memorandum Items
Budgetary borrowing on cash basis 3667.2 666.7 752.9 1143.9
SBP 1662.1 -197.3 135.1 507.5
Scheduled banks 2005.2 864.0 617.8 636.4
1
Including Rs 391 billion shifted due to settlement of PSEs debt stock.
2
Current overdraft ceilings for provinces are: Rs37 billion for Punjab; Rs15 billion for Sindh; Rs10.1 billion for KPK; Rs7.1 billion for Baluchistan, Rs2.7 billion for AJK.
3
The end-June 2012 net stock of borrowings was negative as provincial governments' deposits with scheduled banks exceeded their borrowings.
SBP's OMO injection is the main driver of reserve money growth during July 1 - January 25, FY13.
Cumulative flows
since end-June
FY12
1
flows
Percent growth
Source: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP
End June
2012 stocks
End June
2012 stocks
Cumulative flows
since end-June
FY12
Flows
FY12
Flows
Cumulative flows
since end-June
Government borrowing from the scheduled banks in FY13 is significantly higher than in FY12, adjusting for
Rs391 billion on account of PSEs' debt settlement in FY12.
End June
2012 stocks
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Weeks
Budgetary Borrowings - Cumulative Flows since end June
Settlement of PSEs debt worth
Rs391 billion
-70
0
70
140
210
280
350
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Weeks
Reserve Money - Cumulative Flows since end June
-300
-150
0
150
300
450
600
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Weeks
Banking System Deposits -Cumulative Flows since end June
-80
0
80
160
240
320
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Weeks
Currency in Circulation - Cumulative Flows since end June
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

SBs SBP Total budgetary borrowing
Weeks
Budgetary Borrowings during FY13
Monetary Sector 17
February 2013
Credit to Private Sector
Jul-Dec
FY13
Jul-Dec
FY12
FY12
Total credit to private sector 3376.4 104.5 193.5 235.2
1. Loans to private sector businesses 2450.1 153.5 86.1 18.3
By type
Working capital: of which 1582.1 127.9 98.1 -0.1
Export finance 247.0 21.1 11.4 -19.8
Import finance 126.6 -7.0 -16.4 -8.1
Fixed investment 868.0 25.6 -12.1 18.4
By Sectors: of which
Agriculture 198.4 12.8 8.9 17.9
Manufacturing: of which 1389.9 94.0 53.3 4.5
Textiles 491.0 65.2 30.8 -23.7
Food products & beverages 290.4 3.7 -18.2 15.1
Chemicals & products 172.4 -0.4 7.3 14.3
Non-metallic mineral products 76.5 -6.5 0.4 -18.3
Wearing apparel, readymade gar. 48.3 2.1 -0.3 -1.7
Electricity, gas and water 278.1 16.6 29.8 8.7
Construction 53.5 1.0 -3.0 -14.2
Commerce and trade 210.0 12.4 1.6 -3.6
Transport, storage and comm. 111.3 -1.2 -6.9 5.1
Services: of which 149.9 2.6 -1.8 -3.9
Real estate/renting & business act. 107.9 4.0 -2.5 -3.1
2. Personal: of which 285.0 10.1 -8.1 -9.0
Consumer financing 198.7 6.0 -7.3 -18.9
3. Investment in securities and shares 153.2 11.2 11.9 -4.8
4. Others
1
: of which 488.0 -70.2 103.6 230.7
Non-bank finance companies 242.4 -78.3 24.2 121.0
Cumulative flows (billion Rs)
1
This also includes credit to some Public Sector Enterprises, and other categories.
Private Sector Credit
Source: Statistics and Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP.
Credit to Private Sector Businesses has witnessed significant increase in H1-FY13 compared to H1-FY12.
End June
2012 stocks
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Loans to Private Sector Businesses (Monthly Flows)
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Consumer Finance (Monthly Flows)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

FY12 FY13
Investment in Securities and Shares (Monthly Flows)
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
J
u
l

A
u
g

S
e
p

O
c
t

N
o
v

D
e
c

J
a
n

F
e
b

M
a
r

A
p
r

M
a
y

J
u
n

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

Credit to NBFCs (Monthly Flows)
FY12 FY13
Monetary Sector 18
February 2013
YoY growth of June end Stocks
Key Indicators of Monetary Sector
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
As percent of GDP YoY growth (RHS)
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
26.0
32.0
38.0
44.0
50.0
Money Supply (M2)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
Reserve Money
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
60.0
75.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
Private Sector Credit
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Currency
4.0
7.0
10.0
13.0
16.0
19.0
14.0
19.0
24.0
29.0
34.0
39.0
Deposits
Monetary Sector 19
February 2013
Month end stocks data has been used.
YoY growth shows growth over same month last year.
* Data pertains to January 25, 2013.
Trends in Monetary Aggregates
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
N
o
v
-
1
0

J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

YoY Growth 12 Month moving average
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3
*

Money Supply
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3
*

Reserve Money
10.0
18.0
26.0
34.0
42.0
50.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3
*

Net Government Sector Borrowing from Banking System
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3
*

Credit to Private Sector
3.0
7.0
11.0
15.0
19.0
23.0
27.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3
*

Currency
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3
*

Deposits
3.0
7.0
11.0
15.0
19.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3
*

NDA to NFA Ratio (percent)
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3
*

Currency to deposit ratio Money multiplier (RHS)
Trend in Currency to Deposit Ratio and Money Multiplier
Monetary Sector 20
February 2013
Current w.e.f Previous w.e.f Change
1
SBP reverse repo rate 9.5 17-Dec-12 10.0 8-Oct-12 -50
SBP repo rate 6.5 17-Dec-12 7.0 8-Oct-12 -50
5.0 1-Nov-08 6.0 18-Oct-08 -100
3.0 12-Oct-12 4.0 1-Nov-08 -100
CRR on TL > 1 year 0.0 4-Aug-07 3.0 22-Jul-06 -300
SLR on DL and TL < 1 year 19.0 24-May-08 18.0 22-Jul-06 100
Islamic banks 19.0 3-Jun-11 14.0 1-Apr-11 500
SLR on TL > 1 year 0.0 18-Oct-08 19.0 24-May-08 -1900
Islamic banks 0.0 18-Oct-08 9.0 24-May-08 -900
1
Basis points DL: Demand Liabilities; TL: Time Liabilities
Q1 Q2* Q3 Q4 YTD
31-Jan-13 20-Dec-12 20-Dec-12 6-Dec-12
3
WA O/N repo rate
4
10.71 8.89 9.14 9.74
Cash required 266.0 258.9 7.0 11.4 Standard deviation 1.08 0.73 0.15 1.19
Cash maintained 271.1 264.5 6.6 10.3 CoV
5
0.1 0.08 0.02 0.12
Excess cash reserves (per day) 5.1 5.6 -0.5 -1.1 *up to February 7, 2013 YTD: Year to date
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
3
As on Thursday preceding the monetary policy decision of a change in policy rate.
WA O/N repo rate
4
13.31 11.55 11.09 11.42 11.75
Standard deviation 0.48 0.89 0.68 0.39 1.04
CoV
5
0.04 0.08 0.06 0.03 0.09
4
Weekly Weighted Average O/N Repo Rate
5
CoV (Coefficient of Variation) is a ratio and not represented in percent.
18-Jan-13 21-Dec-12 21-Dec-12 4-Oct-08
Required reserves 1276.6 1264.3 12.3 314.2
Cash
6
266.0 263.4 2.6 -10.1
Securities
7
1010.7 1000.9 9.7 324.3
Maintained
8
3254.4 3088.3 166.1 2235.6
Cash 405.3 392.9 12.4 16.4
Cash in tills 129.4 133.1 -3.7 41.3
Balance with SBP 256.8 234.4 22.4 -31.8
Balance with NBP 19.1 25.4 -6.3 7.0
Securities 2807.4 2653.7 153.7 2194.2
6
Required under weekly average CRR
Others
9
41.7 41.7 0.0 25.0
7
Required under SLR
Excess liquid assets
10
1977.8 1824.0 153.8 1921.5
8
Data corresponds to the balances as on that date
Source: Off-site Supervision and Enforcement Department, SBP
9
Includes Section 13(3) deposits and share capital of MFBs.
10
Includes excess securities + cash and other assets maintained.
Change since
Weekly average CRR on DL
and TL < 1 year
Daily minimum CRR on DL
and TL < 1 year
FY13
FY11
Maintenance period
ended as on
Change since
FY12
Money Market
With effect from 17th December 2012, SBP has reduced the policy rate by 50 bps to 9.5 percent.
Policy Instruments (percent)
The weighted average overnight repo rate has declined by 37 bps, on average, since the last monetary
policy review in December 2012.
Banks' holding of government securities for SLR now stands at 86 percent of their total liquid assets
maintained.
Weekly Cash Reserve Requirements
2
(billion Rs)
Overall Reserve Requirement (billion Rs)
Weighted Average O/N Money Market Repo Rate (percent)
Maintenance period
started as on
2
Weekly CRR is the proportion of total time and demand liabilities that schedule banks are required
to maintain with SBP in the form of cash on average during the week (Friday to Thursday). The data is
reported by Off-site Supervision and Enforcement Department with a lag of about 1-2 weeks.
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

Banks' Holding of Excess Liquid Assets
b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

*up to January 18, 2013
Impact of Rs 391 billion
PSEs debt settlement
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
J
u
l
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

F
e
b
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

SBP reverse repo rate SBP repo rate Weekly WA overnight repo rate
Policy and Overnight Money Market Repo Rates
Financial Markets 21
February 2013
Amount Days Amount Days
billion Rs No. billion Rs No.
FY11 691.3 53 1,138.8 83
Q1 142.2 13 402.3 21
Q2 77.1 10 207.2 26
Q3 283.0 16 65.4 11
Q4 189.1 14 463.9 25
FY12 2,477.2 119 948.1 47
Q1 716.0 41 56.3 7
Q2 704.9 26 346.9 15
Q3 476.5 25 335.0 13
Q4 579.8 27 209.9 12
FY13
1
1,698.2 53.0 642.4 26
Q1 1,035.7 32 239.9 11
Q2 524.0 14 331.2 13
Q3
1
138.5 7 71.4 2
1
Updated up to February 7, 2013
FY11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY13
2
Q1
Q2
Q3
2
2
Updated up to February 8, 2013
*Note: (+) amount means net injection
(-) amount means net mop-up
Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP
143.2
498.5
384.7
568.0
(38.6)
208.5
120.7
289.6
281.6
Average
Outstanding
OMOs
(4.1)
15.0
(13.0)
20.5
SBP repo SBP reverse repo
Outstanding Open Market Operations (billion rupees)
SBP continued to inject substantial amount of liquidity through OMOs.
End-period
Outstanding
OMOs
8.4
3.9
82.0
(92.0)
79.9
SBP Standing Facilities
Banks' use of SBP reverse repo facility has declined after October 2012.
79.9
221.9
224.0
172.1
(92.0)
600.1
611.5
615.7
602.9 600.1
200
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
3

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

Outstanding Open Market Operations
(-) net mop-ups
*Note: Updated on December 14, 2012. It includes the impact of outright transactions (if
any).
(+) net injections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
3

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

SBP Repo and Reverse Repo Facility
Repo Reverse repo
* up to February 7, 2013
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Mop-up rate Injection rate
OMO Mop-up and Injection Rates*
#

* black dots represent outright mop-up rates
# up to February 8, 2013
February 2013
Last MPS
7-Feb-13 7-Jan-13 7-Jan-13 14-Dec-12
1-week 8.99 9.13 -14 -40
2-week 9.00 9.06 -6 -26
1-month 9.02 9.05 -3 -25
3-month 9.08 9.12 -4 -15
6-month 9.15 9.19 -4 -6
9-month 9.19 9.28 -9 -12
1-year 9.24 9.32 -8 -10
2-year 9.80 9.94 -14 -12
3-year 10.48 10.56 -8 16
5-year 11.06 11.09 -3 16
7-year 11.46 11.34 12 25
10-year 11.71 11.60 11 32
20-year 12.17 12.13 4 5
30-year 12.27 12.22 5 5
Last MPS
7-Feb-13 7-Jan-13 7-Jan-13 14-Dec-12
1-week 9.26 9.39 -13 -25
2-week 9.30 9.37 -7 -21
1-month 9.32 9.40 -8 -20
3-month 9.26 9.32 -6 -16
6-month 9.34 9.38 -4 -13
9-month 9.63 9.67 -4 -12
12-month 9.68 9.73 -5 -13
2-year 10.10 10.14 -4 -14
3-year 10.55 10.54 1 3
Last MPS
7-Feb-13 7-Jan-13 7-Jan-13 14-Dec-12
1-week 27 26 1 15
2-week 30 31 -1 5
1-month 30 35 -5 5
3-month 18 20 -2 -1
6-month 19 19 0 -7
9-month 44 39 5 0
12-month 44 41 3 -3
2-year 30 20 10 -2
3-year 7 -2 9 -13
Sources: SBP and Financial Market Association of Pakistan
Secondary market yield of 3 years and higher tenors have increased since the last monetary policy
decision in December 2012.
Change (in basis points)
since
Tenors
Current
Change since
Tenors
Current
KIBOR and PKRV Spread (basis points)
The spreads between KIBOR and PKRV rates of very short-term tenors have increased since the monetary
policy announcement in December 2012.
1
It is secondary market yield-to-maturity used by banks to revalue their holding of
securities (i.e. mark to market).
Current
KIBOR of all tenors, except 3 years, has decreased since the last monetary policy decision in December
2012.
Tenors
Change (in basis points)
since
Tenor-wise KIBOR (%)
Pak Rupee Revaluation (PKRV) Rates
1
(%)
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
7
D

1
5
D

1
M

2
M

3
M

4
M

6
M

9
M

1
Y

2
Y

3
Y

4
Y

5
Y

6
Y

7
Y

8
Y

9
Y

1
0
Y

1
5
Y

2
0
Y

3
0
Y

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Yield Curve
7-Feb-13 14-Dec-12
0
10
20
30
40
50
9
10
11
12
13
14
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
3

b
p
s

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

KIBOR and PKRV Spread
Spread (RHS) 6-M KIBOR 6-M PKRV
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Daily Movement in KIBOR
3-M 6-M 12-M Policy Rate
February 2013
WALR WADR
Spread
(bps) WALR WADR Spread (bps)
Dec-11 13.23 7.06 617 13.46 5.88 758
Jan-12 13.18 7.12 606 13.25 5.88 737
Feb-12 13.14 7.03 611 13.15 5.85 730
Mar-12 12.80 6.98 582 13.04 5.74 730
Apr-12 12.83 7.14 569 12.98 5.76 722
May-12 12.94 6.25 669 12.95 5.88 707
Jun-12 13.13 6.46 667 12.96 5.82 714
Jul-12 13.03 7.11 592 12.93 5.88 705
Aug-12 12.51 6.97 554 12.82 5.87 695
Sep-12 12.07 6.88 519 12.65 5.75 690
Oct-12 11.29 6.02 527 12.41 5.64 677
Nov-12 10.91 6.11 480 12.25 5.58 667
Dec-12 11.07 6.01 506 11.97 5.43 654
1
Weighted average rates on incremental (fresh) loans and deposits during a month.
WALR WADR WALR WADR
Dec-11 1.31 -4.86 3.49 -2.68
Jan-12 1.58 -4.48 3.08 -2.98
Feb-12 1.68 -4.43 2.09 -4.02
Mar-12 1.52 -4.30 2.01 -3.81
Apr-12 1.65 -4.04 1.56 -4.13
May-12 1.78 -4.91 0.65 -6.04
Jun-12 2.12 -4.55 1.87 -4.80
Jul-12 2.26 -3.66 3.43 -2.49
Aug-12 1.95 -3.59 3.46 -2.08
Sep-12 1.66 -3.53 3.28 -1.91
Oct-12 1.16 -4.11 3.63 -1.64
Nov-12 1.07 -3.73 3.98 -0.82
Dec-12 1.39 -3.67 3.14 -1.92
2
Nominal rate less CPI inflation (12-month moving average).
3
Nominal rate less CPI inflation (year on year).
Sources: Statistics & Data Warehouse Department, SBP & Federal Bureau of Statistics
Real (based on YoY
inflation)
3
Real lending rate, calculated on the basis of YoY inflation, was 3.1 in December 2012.
Months
Real (based on 12-
month MA inflation)
2
Against a cumulative 450 bps decrease in the policy rate since August 2011, incremental WALR and
WADR have declined by 355 bps and 145 bps respectively uptil December 2012.
Outstanding
Months
Incremental
1
Weighted average Lending and Deposit Rates (percent per annum)
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
D
e
c
-
1
0

F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

p
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e

p
o
i
n
t
s

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Banks' WALR and WADR (Incremental)
Spread (RHS) Lending Deposit
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
D
e
c
-
1
0

F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

WALR WADR
* Using YoY CPI Inflation.
Real Lending and Deposit Rates (Incremental)
February 2013
Sources: PBS and Statistics & Data Warehouse Department, SBP
Real Interest Rates
Using 12-month moving average CPI inflation Using YoY CPI inflation
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Headline Core (20% Trim)
SBP Policy Rate
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

6-M KIBOR
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
D
e
c
-
1
0

F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Weighted Average Lending Rates
(Incremental)

-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Headline Core (20% Trim)
SBP Policy Rate
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
J
a
n
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
1

M
a
y
-
1
1

J
u
l
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

N
o
v
-
1
1

J
a
n
-
1
2

M
a
r
-
1
2

M
a
y
-
1
2

J
u
l
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

N
o
v
-
1
2

J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

6-M KIBOR
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
D
e
c
-
1
0

F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

Weighted Average Lending Rates

(Incremental)

February 2013
Target Maturity Offered Accepted
2
Offered Accepted Cut-off
3
3
3
FY12 3,345.0 3,053.4 4,773.6 2,854.6 1,416.6 889.6 - 1,513.2 891.6 - 1,843.8 1,073.4 - 366.5
Q1 750.0 594.7 1,090.9 769.2 82.5 29.0 13.07 336.1 252.5 13.23 672.3 487.7 13.31 81.3
Q2 1,025.0 936.5 1,581.6 741.1 110.7 33.2 11.83 586.6 258.7 11.67 884.2 449.1 11.90 98.9
Q3 575.0 505.5 984.7 518.5 348.1 182.5 11.87 403.0 233.5 11.94 233.5 102.5 11.94 76.8
Q4 995.0 1,016.7 1,116.4 825.8 875.2 644.8 11.92 187.4 146.9 11.94 53.8 34.1 11.95 109.5
FY13
1
3,325.0 3,345.9 5,357.7 3,279.9 712.9 359.0 - 2,815.2 1,790.2 - 1,829.6 1,130.7 - 350.1
Q1 1,500.0 1,487.1 2,231.1 1,611.3 191.0 129.5 10.23 967.6 755.4 10.24 1,072.5 726.4 10.26 152.2
Q2 1,125.0 1,148.9 2,012.2 956.5 191.2 81.6 9.28 1,174.3 543.0 9.30 646.7 331.8 9.36 128.3
Q3
1
700.0 710.0 1,114.4 712.1 330.7 147.8 9.09 673.3 491.9 9.16 110.4 72.4 9.26 69.5
1
Uptil February 6, 2013
2
The amount does not include the non-competitive bids.
3
Quarterly rate are for end-period.
4
These amounts are raised from non-bank institutions and/or individuals at auctions weighted average rate.
Cut-off rate
7
12.75 13.12 12.60 13.38 13.50 13.35 14.19 - -
Offered 94.1 71.0 1.2 145.2 2.4 4.8 0.2 318.7 -
Accepted 67.3 52.1 - 86.2 2.2 3.7 - 211.6 185.0
Cut-off rate 13.22 13.24 - 13.25 13.50 - - - -
Offered 20.5 20.9 0.5 60.4 2.4 0.2 0.2 105.1 -
Accepted 16.6 17.4 - 31.2 2.2 - - 67.3 50.0
Cut-off rate 12.45 12.70 - 12.70 - - - - -
Offered 25.4 8.6 0.7 22.1 - - - 56.8 -
Accepted 14.1 4.0 - 15.1 - - - 33.2 45.0
Cut-off rate 12.59 12.94 - 13.20 - - - - -
Offered 25.5 25.5 - 21.5 - - - 72.4 -
Accepted 17.2 18.7 - 14.1 - - - 50.0 50.0
Cut-off rate 12.75 13.12 - 13.38 - 13.35 - - -
Offered 22.6 15.9 - 41.1 - 4.7 - 84.3 -
Accepted 19.4 12.1 - 25.9 - 3.7 - 61.1 40.0
FY13
Cut-off rate 10.63 11.17 - 11.60 - 13.35 - - -
Offered 94.1 72.2 - 76.9 - 6.1 - 249.4 -
Accepted 43.3 45.6 - 21.8 - 5.1 - 115.8 90.0
Cut-off rate 10.4 10.9 - 11.4 - - - - -
Offered 66.1 34.1 - 25.7 - - - 125.9 -
Accepted 29.7 11.8 - 9.4 - - - 50.9 90.0
Cut-off rate - - - - - - - - -
Offered 11.0 5.7 - 5.4 - - - 22.0 -
Accepted 25.0
"-": Either no bid received or bids were rejected.
5
Uptil end January 2013
6
Excluding non-competitive bids and short-selling accommodation
Target
Total
offered
Total
accepted
Cut-off
margin
8
FY12 150.0 248.3 186.8 -
Q1 0.0 - - -
Q2 50.0 84.2 70.3 0
Q3 50.0 55.7 38.1 0
Q4 50.0 108.4 78.4 0
FY13 45.0 110.6 47.0 -
Q1 45.0 110.6 47.0 -25
Q2 0.0 - - -
Q3 0.0 - - -
8
This cut-off margin, with the benchmark of 6-Month MTB Auction Weighted Average Yield, is applicable to all accepted bids
Source: Domestic Markets & Monetary Management Department, SBP
T-bill Auction (billion Rs (Realized value); rates in percent)
PIB Auction (billion Rs (Face value); rates in percent)
6
FY/Q/
Settlement
date
3-Month 6-Month TOTAL
7
The cut-off rates are of the last auction in FY12, where the bids were accepted, with the exception of 7 year (in which the cut-off rate of May 26, 2012 is used) and 30-year
(in which the cut-off rate of June 22, 2011 is used)
Q1
3-year Ijarah Sukuk Auction (billion Rs; margin in bps)
Target 30-Year 10-Year 15-Year 20-Year
Q3
5
Q2
After Q1-FY13, market preferred to invest in 6 month tenor in T-bill auctions.
Government has successfully raised the targeted amount in the Sukuk auction held in Q1-FY13.
Government rejected all the bids in PIB auction held in January 2013.
3-Year 5-Year 7-Year
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Non-
competitive
bids
4
12-Month
FY12
Total
Bids rejected
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1
4
-
J
u
l
-
1
1

8
-
A
u
g
-
1
1

3
0
-
A
u
g
-
1
1

2
6
-
S
e
p
-
1
1

1
7
-
O
c
t
-
1
1

1
4
-
N
o
v
-
1
1

8
-
D
e
c
-
1
1

3
0
-
D
e
c
-
1
1

2
4
-
J
a
n
-
1
2

1
5
-
F
e
b
-
1
2

8
-
M
a
r
-
1
2

2
-
A
p
r
-
1
2

2
4
-
A
p
r
-
1
2

1
7
-
M
a
y
-
1
2

1
1
-
J
u
n
-
1
2

4
-
J
u
l
-
1
2

2
7
-
J
u
l
-
1
2

2
4
-
A
u
g
-
1
2

1
7
-
S
e
p
-
1
2

1
0
-
O
c
t
-
1
2

5
-
N
o
v
-
1
2

2
8
-
N
o
v
-
1
2

2
0
-
D
e
c
-
1
2

1
5
-
J
a
n
-
1
3

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

3-M 6-M 12-M Policy rate
T-Bill Cut-off rate
-
60
120
180
240
300
360
2
9
-
J
u
n
-
1
1

2
7
-
J
u
l
-
1
1

2
4
-
A
u
g
-
1
1

2
1
-
S
e
p
-
1
1

1
9
-
O
c
t
-
1
1

1
6
-
N
o
v
-
1
1

1
4
-
D
e
c
-
1
1

1
1
-
J
a
n
-
1
2

8
-
F
e
b
-
1
2

7
-
M
a
r
-
1
2

4
-
A
p
r
-
1
2

2
-
M
a
y
-
1
2

3
0
-
M
a
y
-
1
2

2
7
-
J
u
n
-
1
2

2
5
-
J
u
l
-
1
2

2
2
-
A
u
g
-
1
2

1
9
-
S
e
p
-
1
2

1
7
-
O
c
t
-
1
2

1
4
-
N
o
v
-
1
2

1
2
-
D
e
c
-
1
2

9
-
J
a
n
-
1
3

6
-
F
e
b
-
1
3

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

R
s

3-M 6-M 12-M Total
T-Bill Auctions (accepted amount)

February 2013
%
App/(Dpp)
of PKR
Latest
7-Feb-13
Last MPS
14-Dec-12
Jun-12
Cumulative
since Jun-12
USD 97.96 97.70 94.55 (3.48)
Euro 132.90 127.85 118.99 (10.47)
Sterling 153.51 157.56 147.36 (4.01)
JPY 1.04 1.17 1.19 14.02
USD Kerb 99.43 98.35 95.65 (3.80)
Premium (Rs) 0.65 1.10 -
Daily NEER
1
56.15 56.41 58.97 (4.77)
%
App/(Dpp)
of USD
Latest
7-Feb-13
Last MPS
14-Dec-12
Jun-12
Cumulative
since Jun-12
USD/EUR 1.36 1.31 1.26 (7.24)
USD/GBP 1.57 1.61 1.56 (0.54)
JPY/USD 93.84 83.80 79.43 18.13
INR/USD 53.28 54.35 55.97 (4.79)
High Low Close Average
Volatility
C/C
2
CNY/USD 6.23 6.24 6.35 (1.91) Q1-FY11 86.35 85.40 86.32 85.73 1.53
THB/USD 29.77 30.63 31.76 (6.28) Q2-FY11 86.34 85.13 85.64 85.79 1.93
MYR/USD 3.09 3.06 3.18 (2.65) Q3-FY11 86.08 84.75 85.36 85.52 2.41
SGD/USD 1.24 1.22 1.27 (2.54) Q4-FY11 86.50 83.93 85.97 85.29 3.45
Q1-FY12 87.94 85.79 87.48 86.78 1.86
Q2-FY12 90.05 85.89 89.95 87.85 3.12
High Low Close Average
Volatility
C/C
2
Q3-FY12 91.32 89.67 90.66 90.60 2.46
FY10 85.58 81.40 85.51 83.89 3.02 Q4-FY12 94.69 90.15 94.55 92.16 2.60
FY11 86.50 83.93 85.97 85.56 2.40 Q1-FY13 95.00 93.70 94.81 94.53 2.21
FY12 94.69 85.79 94.55 89.27 2.48 Q2-FY13 98.35 94.87 97.15 96.25 2.21
FY13
3
98.35 93.70 97.96 95.79 2.09 Q3-FY13
3
97.98 97.22 97.96 97.60 1.54
Source: SBP
PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Fiscal Year Basis
2
Reuters: Average Close-to-Close Daily Volatility (in %)
3
Updated up to 07th February 2013
PKR/USD Interbank Exchange Rate Trends on Quarterly Basis
Foreign Exchange Market
Upto 7th February in FY13, Pak rupee has depreciated by 3.5 percent against US$.
PKR against international
currencies
International exchange rates
Source: SBP
1
Data updated up to 6th February 2013
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
3

USD/Euro USD/GBP Yen/USD (rhs)
Daily Movement of USD against Major Currencies
81
84
87
90
93
96
99
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
3

Daily Movement of PKR against USD (Rs/USD)

February 2013
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
P
Mar 95.99 5.37 4.14 3.98 6.85 7.35 7.28 8.71 6.94 3.79
Jun 100.20 0.94 -0.24 -0.39 2.35 2.84 2.76 4.14 2.45 -0.57
Sep 101.39 -0.25 -1.41 -1.57 1.15 1.62 1.55 2.91 1.24 -1.74
Dec 101.14 - -1.16 -1.32 1.40 1.88 1.81 3.17 1.50 -1.49
Mar 99.96 - - -0.16 2.60 3.08 3.01 4.38 2.69 -0.33
Jun 99.80 - - - 2.76 3.24 3.17 4.55 2.85 -0.18
Sep 102.56 - - - - 0.47 0.40 1.74 0.09 -2.86
Dec 103.04 - - - - - -0.07 1.26 -0.38 -3.31
Mar 102.97 - - - - - - 1.33 -0.31 -3.25
Jun 104.34 - - - - - - - -1.62 -4.52
Sep 102.65 - - - - - - - - -2.95
Dec
P
99.63 - - - - - - - - -
2013
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 30-Jan
Jun 85.46 -0.29 0.18 -0.61 -2.33 -5.01 -5.78 -9.68 -9.91 -12.02 -12.74
Sep 86.29 0.67 0.18 0.34 -1.39 -4.09 -4.87 -8.82 -9.04 -11.17 -11.90
Dec 85.71 - -0.32 -0.32 -2.05 -4.73 -5.50 -9.42 -9.65 -11.76 -12.49
Mar 85.31 - -0.79 -2.50 -5.18 -5.94 -9.84 -10.07 -12.17 -12.90
Jun 85.99 - - -1.73 -4.42 -5.20 -9.13 -9.36 -11.48 -12.20
Sep 87.50 - - - -2.74 -3.53 -7.53 -7.76 -9.92 -10.66
Dec 89.97 - - - - -0.81 -4.92 -5.16 -7.38 -8.14
Mar 90.70 - - - - - -4.15 -4.39 -6.62 -7.39
Jun 94.63 - - - - - - -0.25 -2.58 -3.38
Sep 94.87 - - - - - - - -2.34 -3.14
Dec 97.14 - - - - - - - - -0.82
2
0
1
3
7-Feb 97.94 - - - - - - - - - -
Source: SBP
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2010
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
In real terms, Pak rupee has depreciated by 2.9 percent during H1-FY13.
REER Index 2011 2010
WA
Exchange
Rate
2012
2011 2012
p
Provisional
Changes in Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)
Base Year: CY2005
Changes in Exchange Rate (Rs/USD)
Weighted Average (Mid Rates) End Period
February 2013
Feb-13
1
Jan-13
KSE-100 index 17,383 17,243 17,383 13,801
KSE-30 index 14,199 14,063 14,199 11,922
Market capitalization (billion Rs) 4,338 4,183 3,989 3,233
Ready volume (million shares-avg.) 260.3 160 152.9 130.0
SCRA flows (US$ million) 1.7 170.4 249.3 -251.0
1
Up to 7th February 2013.
2
Reflects growth since end of the previous month.
Sources: Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), Statistics & Data Warehouse Department (S&DWD), SBP and JR Research.
1.0 19.1 2.9
- - -
3.7 23.4 7.0
- - -
FY13
Jul-Feb
FY13
1
Percentage change during
0.8 26.0 10.4
FY12
Feb
FY13
2
FY13 FY12
Capital Market
Since end June 2012, KSE-100 index has increased by 26 percent as compared to 10.4 percent growth in the entire
FY12.
Performance of Karachi Stock Exchange
2,400
4,950
7,500
10,050
12,600
15,150
17,700
0
120
240
360
480
600
720
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
3

m
i
l
l
i
o
n

s
h
a
r
e
s

Ready volume KSE-100 index (rhs)
KSE-100 Index and Ready Volume
Source: JS Research, KSE
0
3500
7000
10500
14000
17500
-30
-16
-2
12
26
40
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2

A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

F
e
b
-
1
3

m
i
l
l
i
o
n

U
S
$

SCRA KSE-100 index (rhs)
Special Convertibility Rupee Account (SCRA) Flows
Source: S&DWD, SBP
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
D
e
c
-
1
0
F
e
b
-
1
1

A
p
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

A
u
g
-
1
1

O
c
t
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

F
e
b
-
1
2
A
p
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

A
u
g
-
1
2

O
c
t
-
1
2

D
e
c
-
1
2

Foreign Stake in Domestic Stock Market
(as percent of market capitalization)
Sources: KSE and S&DWD, SBP
2.0
2.6
3.2
3.8
4.4
C
Y
0
7

C
Y
0
8

C
Y
0
9

C
Y
1
0

C
Y
1
1

a
s

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

o
f

t
o
t
a
l

e
x
p
e
n
s
e
s

Financial Expenses of Corporate Sector
Source: S&DWD, SBP
February 2013
percent
Jun
2011
Sep
2011
Dec
2011
Mar
2012
Jun
2012
Sep
2012
Risk weighted CAR
1
14.1 14.9 14.6 14.7 15.1 16.0
Gross NPLs to total loans 15.3 16.7 16.2 15.8 15.9 15.5
Provision to NPLs 67.9 65.8 66.8 68.5 66.3 70.0
Net NPLs to net loans 5.5 6.4 6.0 5.6 6.0 5.2
Returns on assets (before tax) 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2
Return on assets (after tax) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4
ROE (before tax)
2
21.8 21.5 23.4 26.3 25.9 23.4
ROE (after tax)
2
14.3 14.1 15.2 17.6 17.3 15.3
Net interest income/gross income 75.9 76.5 75.7 73.4 72.3 71.6
Liquid assets/total assets 38.2 40.5 44.4 44.0 42.7 46.5
Liquid assets/total deposits 49.5 54.5 58.4 58.5 54.3 62.8
Advances/deposits 56.7 56.6 53.6 54.3 52.5 52.6
Note: Figures are based on unaudited Quarterly Report of Condition (QRC) submitted by banks.
1
Data of IDBP,PPCBL, and SME is based on Basel I, while for the rest data is based on Basel II.
2
Average equity and surplus.
Source: Banking Surveillance Department (BSD), SBP
Financial Soundness Indicators
Capital adequacy, asset quality and liquidity indicators of the banking system have improved in Q1-FY13.
12
13
14
15
16
17
300
400
500
600
700
800
S
e
p
-
1
0

D
e
c
-
1
0

M
a
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

p
e
r
c
e
n
t

b
i
l
l
i
o
n

r
u
p
e
e
s

Source: BSD, SBP
Banks' NPLs
Gross NPLs Gross NPLs to total loans (RHS)
0.4
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
4.0
7.0
10.0
13.0
16.0
19.0
S
e
p
-
1
0

D
e
c
-
1
0

M
a
r
-
1
1

J
u
n
-
1
1

S
e
p
-
1
1

D
e
c
-
1
1

M
a
r
-
1
2

J
u
n
-
1
2

S
e
p
-
1
2

Return on equity (after tax) Return on assets (after tax)
Source: BSD, SBP
Banks' Profitability Indicators (percent)

MPS Feb 2013 Compendium

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

MPS Feb 2013 Compendium

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN

Monetary Policy Information Compendium

You might also like