Professional Documents
Culture Documents
02 August 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
448.70
300.80
448.70
Neutral
Buy
Target
616
Beta
0.68
CHEMRING GROUP
310.00
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
367
0.66
COBHAM
291.90
190.10
293.40
Neutral
Neutral
304
0.83
MEGGITT
555.00
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
536
1.30
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1192.00
799.39
1240.00
Neutral
Neutral
1181
1.01
SMITHS GROUP
1397.00
1011.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
1179
0.77
1823.00
1435.00
1843.00
Neutral
Neutral
1737
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
352.60
201.00
352.60
Neutral
Neutral
345
1.96
INCHCAPE
587.00
353.30
587.00
Neutral
Neutral
616
1.42
LOOKERS
121.75
64.50
122.00
Neutral
Sell
108
1.23
28.00
13.50
28.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
42
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
291.10
162.30
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-830
1.94
754.20
538.70
769.90
Neutral
Buy
895
1.16
74.00
29.39
74.00
Sell
Sell
1.86
333.50
204.50
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-124
1.37
STANDARD CHARTERED
1551.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3508
1.65
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
554.00
415.00
588.50
Neutral
Sell
494
0.58
DIAGEO
2077.00
1672.50
2085.00
Neutral
Neutral
2241
0.53
SABMILLER
3284.00
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4395
0.93
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
371.00
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
461
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
310.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
563
1.21
CARCLO
374.50
342.75
503.00
Neutral
Sell
150
0.76
2533.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3172
1.06
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
252.70
201.70
275.00
Neutral
Buy
312
1.04
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2883.00
2102.27
2883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4410
1.44
VICTREX
1520.00
1239.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1337
1.19
SYNTHOMER
199.10
139.10
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
406
1.11
ZOTEFOAMS
212.50
171.50
225.00
Neutral
Buy
304
0.99
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
115.50
63.00
118.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
280
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
249.00
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1144
0.83
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
334.00
134.10
352.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
614
1.61
1.00
0.52
BELLWAY
1400.00
802.00
1455.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2886
2276.00
1387.00
2325.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3516
0.57
BOOT (HENRY)
187.50
117.00
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
368
0.76
1.11
800.50
452.00
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1449
CARILLION
300.00
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1556
1.10
CLARKE (T)
54.38
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
390
0.80
282.25
210.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1143
0.51
CRH
COSTAIN GROUP
1405.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
913
1.05
GALLIFORD TRY
1002.00
610.00
1019.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2977
0.95
KELLER
1103.00
443.75
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2408
1.26
KIER GROUP
1487.00
1106.00
1487.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5385
0.94
70.25
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
227
1.05
1.32
150.00
77.00
152.75
Neutral
Buy
205
662.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4576
0.69
16.75
11.00
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
61
1.07
NORCROS
1242.00
580.72
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2018
1.04
REDROW
PERSIMMON
241.20
127.80
253.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
459
0.89
SIG
182.70
93.70
183.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
532
1.72
45.50
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4284
0.88
107.10
46.15
108.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
229
1.62
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1713.00
1005.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4452
1.92
WOLSELEY
3237.00
2287.42
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6054
1.37
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1170.00
999.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
1038
0.69
641.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
871
1.16
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
130.00
105.50
137.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
271
1.27
INVENSYS
506.00
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
271
1.36
LAIRD
194.00
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
439
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1400.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1279
1.11
RENISHAW
1585.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2037
1.30
SPECTRIS
2191.00
1506.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2780
1.52
74.00
74.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-516
0.75
TT ELECTRONICS
174.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
425
1.61
XAAR
844.00
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
415
1.09
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
94.50
54.25
94.50
Neutral
Buy
138
1.18
BODYCOTE
631.00
323.70
631.00
Sell
Neutral
620
1.58
CASTINGS
425.00
291.00
425.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
655
0.94
VESUVIUS
440.00
263.19
440.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1124
2.23
FENNER
348.40
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
540
1.46
HALMA
558.00
398.50
558.00
Neutral
Sell
404
0.77
432.50
302.00
480.00
Neutral
Buy
525
1.36
1422.00
802.50
1422.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4663
1.40
314.50
220.30
314.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
526
1.87
2672.00
2157.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
878
1.03
272.80
185.90
281.80
Neutral
Sell
240
1.66
57.50
35.40
80.16
Neutral
Sell
45
0.75
SPIRAX-SARCO
2910.00
1932.53
2928.35
Neutral
Sell
2077
0.84
VITEC GROUP
575.50
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
465
1.41
WEIR GROUP
2203.00
1566.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2133
1.47
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
440.00
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
795
0.43
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
290.40
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
398
0.36
SAINSBURY (J)
395.30
320.10
398.50
Neutral
Buy
484
0.54
TESCO
370.25
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
200
0.66
82.50
23.25
100.50
Neutral
Sell
52
0.82
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1954.00
1267.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1668
0.59
CRANSWICK
1153.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1817
0.35
DAIRY CREST
500.50
332.90
510.00
Neutral
Sell
365
0.89
DEVRO
327.00
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
539
0.34
91.00
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
247
1.22
846.50
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1410
0.68
2708.00
2235.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2304
0.52
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 8 of 17
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
25.50
22.13
29.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
39
0.67
528.00
264.20
528.00
Sell
Sell
463
0.47
1563.00
1000.00
1563.00
Neutral
Sell
1248
1.27
672.50
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
353
0.89
45.01
15.32
46.16
Neutral
Neutral
46
1.46
202.88
58.50
205.00
Neutral
Sell
58
1.05
32.75
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
111
1.00
HALFORDS GROUP
369.90
205.50
405.20
Neutral
Buy
517
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
879.00
651.00
925.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1771
0.51
DARTY
Target
Beta
76.50
39.00
80.00
Neutral
Buy
110
1.19
KINGFISHER
404.90
262.20
404.90
Neutral
Buy
450
0.87
485.10
334.00
485.40
Neutral
Buy
646
0.61
60.75
44.75
71.00
Neutral
Buy
74
0.98
424.00
194.75
492.75
Neutral
Sell
153
0.38
NEXT
5030.00
3320.00
5030.00
Neutral
Neutral
5420
0.59
TED BAKER
1948.00
891.00
1948.00
Sell
Sell
981
0.54
88.00
43.50
89.00
Neutral
Sell
77
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
129.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
112
0.39
CONSORT MEDICAL
796.00
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
566
0.38
OPTOS
159.50
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Neutral
170
1.23
787.50
638.00
795.00
Neutral
Sell
667
0.44
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
792.50
587.50
792.50
Neutral
Neutral
776
0.38
HEADLAM GROUP
387.00
272.50
387.00
Neutral
Sell
327
0.89
80.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
112
0.71
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
889.00
528.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
292
0.70
CSR
568.00
308.10
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1555
1.12
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
61.50
28.38
83.25
Neutral
Sell
52
0.94
246.60
235.10
624.00
Neutral
Buy
317
1.09
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
146.90
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
251
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
154.00
140.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-190
0.96
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1381.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-484
0.50
AMLIN
407.10
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1604
0.39
BEAZLEY
220.70
156.70
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
998
0.52
CATLIN GROUP
510.00
424.00
552.50
Neutral
Sell
473
0.22
HISCOX
660.00
452.39
660.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1995
0.41
895.00
723.00
917.00
Neutral
Buy
1281
0.33
122.90
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
759
0.39
NOVAE GROUP
491.50
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3589
0.41
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2584.00
2092.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3721
0.92
ENTERPRISE INNS
142.20
55.50
142.20
Neutral
Sell
120
1.62
TUI TRAVEL
386.10
182.00
386.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
753
0.96
955.00
700.50
958.00
Neutral
Sell
637
0.25
GREENE KING
879.00
556.50
886.00
Neutral
Sell
656
0.85
LADBROKES
217.50
156.80
243.10
Neutral
Buy
270
0.87
1907.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1698
1.12
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
554.50
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
607
1.37
416.80
262.00
426.80
Neutral
Sell
293
0.96
141.20
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
66
1.23
12.75
6.10
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
78
1.18
160.00
116.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
583
0.97
0.70
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
531.00
315.50
557.50
Neutral
Sell
402
WETHERSPOON (JD)
707.50
447.90
767.00
Neutral
Neutral
721
0.56
WHITBREAD
3247.00
2067.00
3247.00
Neutral
Sell
2257
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
494.50
271.02
494.50
Neutral
Sell
266
0.79
MARSTON'S
155.80
109.70
164.50
Neutral
Sell
19
1.15
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
377.30
285.20
388.40
Neutral
Sell
351
1.17
CHESNARA
254.00
163.00
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
511
0.67
194.90
126.60
194.90
Sell
Strong Buy
489
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
198.10
159.20
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
409
1.52
PRUDENTIAL
1187.00
746.00
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1202
1.66
624.50
336.20
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6890
0.82
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
139.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.38
833.00
709.00
899.50
Buy
Strong Buy
1056
0.47
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
41.25
30.50
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.02
817.00
451.25
818.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.07
1061.00
717.50
1105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.98
INFORMA
536.00
369.90
537.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.61
ITE GROUP
284.10
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.49
ITV
167.70
76.10
168.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.44
1.22
JOHNSTON PRESS
16.50
5.20
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1344.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.60
94.50
38.75
95.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.87
286.50
265.00
288.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.12
35.76
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.51
STV GROUP
157.50
81.50
157.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
166.75
71.00
166.75
Neutral
Sell
159
1.48
TRINITY MIRROR
115.25
36.75
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.60
UBM
752.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.31
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
165.50
99.50
166.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.86
1202.00
788.00
1210.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.28
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1483.00
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1244
1.84
188.00
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Buy
210
1.07
ANTOFAGASTA
913.50
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
851
1.43
1920.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2960
1.49
GLENCORE XSTRATA
289.55
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1013
#NA
LONMIN
318.10
240.84
411.96
Sell
Buy
437
2.08
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4914.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2891
0.42
RIO TINTO
3038.00
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2439
1.54
861.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2774
2.25
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1198.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
889
0.86
BP
458.50
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1003
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
271.70
251.80
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-22
1.35
7.59
7.15
12.50
Buy
Strong Buy
109
0.87
835.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
568
1.37
62.75
48.50
96.00
Neutral
Sell
-59
1.43
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
365.20
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Buy
406
1.47
2218.00
2098.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8232
0.86
369.00
319.90
404.30
Buy
Buy
478
0.57
1066.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
698
1.08
908.50
720.50
908.50
Neutral
Sell
724
1.45
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
134.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
260
0.79
PZ CUSSONS
390.10
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
329
0.68
4717.00
3536.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4756
0.30
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.49
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-3
0.89
3334.00
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9078
0.49
BTG
380.00
300.30
397.90
Neutral
Sell
215
0.73
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
677.00
473.00
780.00
Neutral
Buy
927
0.20
1712.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
1933
0.51
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.48
1.33
2.80
Buy
Sell
-2
0.60
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Sell
-6
0.96
2440.00
1727.00
2440.00
Neutral
Sell
1539
0.66
SKYEPHARMA
72.00
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Buy
102
0.68
VERNALIS
22.63
19.38
27.38
Neutral
Sell
11
0.88
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
445.00
300.00
445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
699
1.15
BRITISH LAND
608.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
821
1.05
2463.00
1890.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4782
1.21
575.00
425.00
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1112
1.05
HAMMERSON
536.00
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Neutral
546
1.24
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
333.00
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
538
1.12
963.50
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1726
1.14
25.88
24.25
40.75
Buy
Sell
-159
0.87
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
116.50
103.20
121.40
Neutral
Sell
-6
0.30
MCKAY SECURITIES
148.00
131.50
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
264
0.66
454.50
325.00
454.50
Neutral
Sell
242
0.36
345.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
105
0.30
41.50
26.11
43.25
Neutral
Sell
-392
0.64
SEGRO
313.60
221.60
313.60
Sell
Sell
-283
1.80
SHAFTESBURY
647.50
516.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
839
1.02
200.50
171.12
223.00
Neutral
Sell
10
1.03
0.98
0.70
2.52
Neutral
Sell
-1019
0.96
475.00
245.00
475.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1225
0.98
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
365.60
210.50
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
811
35.00
22.75
37.50
Sell
Sell
-55
0.68
CLS HOLDINGS
1101.00
645.00
1120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3126
0.72
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4179.00
2706.00
4179.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7455
0.42
205.00
137.75
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
198
0.92
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.65
GRAINGER
187.50
91.00
187.50
Sell
Sell
118
1.54
HELICAL BAR
300.00
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
209
0.77
25.00
20.25
29.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
244
0.65
5987.50
4150.00
5987.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
15313
0.72
90.00
49.25
90.50
Sell
Sell
-209
1.04
RAVEN RUSSIA
71.00
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
224
1.51
644.00
370.00
644.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2325
0.73
86.50
71.50
88.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
391
0.35
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
333.00
181.75
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
651
1.57
UNITE GROUP
403.00
214.75
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1751
1.78
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
127.10
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
127
0.73
2446.00
1776.97
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1502
1.49
COMPUTACENTER
498.00
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1156
0.88
KOFAX
341.25
260.75
347.25
Neutral
Sell
305
1.07
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
29.25
18.50
29.50
Sell
Sell
21
0.78
792.00
531.08
796.00
Neutral
Buy
915
0.80
PHOENIX IT GROUP
155.00
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
242
0.71
83.00
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
237
0.49
2003.00
1275.00
2137.00
Neutral
Neutral
2191
0.79
355.00
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
440
0.71
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
385.00
257.80
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1236
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
260.00
144.60
260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
654
0.69
9180.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
95300
0.85
425.00
260.00
426.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1426
0.96
0.68
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
CHARLES TAYLOR
Target
Beta
187.50
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1628
1056.00
743.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4819
0.85
99.95
87.25
110.40
Neutral
Sell
69
0.88
4.30
0.55
4.57
Sell
Sell
-130
0.65
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
174.00
97.60
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
814
1.44
ICAP
403.20
280.80
406.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
813
1.04
488.50
252.70
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2293
1.69
INVESTEC
449.70
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1692
1.56
1582.00
930.00
1590.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6820
1.08
83.55
71.30
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4909
1.39
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1645.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5491
0.75
SCHRODERS
2510.00
1302.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8177
1.27
SCHRODERS NV
1955.00
1040.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10891
1.25
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
247.00
157.75
255.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
880
0.90
AGGREKO
1643.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4292
1.16
AMEC
1079.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3411
1.10
713.00
250.30
730.00
Neutral
Buy
1024
1.65
1177.00
868.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2699
0.48
596.00
358.00
604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2427
0.80
1398.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2867
0.52
589.00
227.50
593.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1710
0.41
1041.00
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
213
0.53
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
CAPITA
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
63.50
29.57
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
497
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
903.50
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2042
0.74
BERENDSEN
818.00
510.00
823.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3466
1.04
DE LA RUE
985.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1468
#NA
DIGNITY
1509.00
895.50
1568.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3142
0.22
DIPLOMA
582.00
418.00
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1569
0.97
ELECTROCOMP.
250.10
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
956
1.02
ESSENTRA PLC
786.00
500.50
786.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1428
1.14
G4S
228.00
207.50
313.50
Buy
Strong Buy
914
0.54
HAYS
103.90
68.20
106.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
472
1.05
HOMESERVE
270.90
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1005
0.91
INTERSERVE
510.00
319.00
519.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3789
1.30
3051.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4929
0.81
49.13
27.50
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
121
1.10
0.68
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
25.25
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
224
MENZIES (JOHN)
733.50
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1829
1.40
453.40
346.40
453.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
866
1.37
MITIE GROUP
272.90
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1091
0.50
41.50
40.50
156.00
Buy
Strong Buy
729
0.28
OFFICE2OFFICE
1102.00
670.50
1110.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2262
0.72
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
236.00
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
744
1.40
REGUS
186.00
94.75
186.70
Neutral
Sell
57
1.40
98.10
71.65
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
277
1.29
REXAM
506.00
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1831
0.86
RICARDO
439.75
340.00
439.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1724
0.87
ROBERT WALTERS
246.25
176.25
246.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1047
1.19
RPC GROUP
463.00
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1574
0.79
RPS GROUP
230.00
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1034
1.51
SERCO GROUP
633.00
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2444
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
87.00
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
279
1.50
RENTOKIL INITIAL
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
60.00
23.50
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
319
1.23
194.00
82.00
194.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
581
0.64
55.13
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
343
0.94
407.50
295.25
412.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2376
0.80
91.00
42.00
91.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
637
0.82
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
342.70
212.50
344.00
Neutral
Buy
418
0.89
40.34
29.64
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
78
0.69
676.00
484.30
749.00
Neutral
Sell
241
0.57
83.95
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
116
1.23
1331.00
810.00
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
790
0.03
200.20
154.45
200.20
Neutral
Sell
101
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
300.00
178.00
300.00
Neutral
Sell
233
1.25
430.00
350.00
452.00
Neutral
Buy
596
1.06
CLARKSON
1885.00
1150.00
1888.00
Neutral
Sell
1336
0.84
EASYJET
1431.00
530.00
1431.00
Neutral
Sell
867
0.74
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
103.20
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
284
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1046.00
615.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
786
0.75
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1569.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2732
1.00
NATIONAL EXPRESS
255.70
164.50
255.70
Neutral
Neutral
249
1.40
NORTHGATE
385.00
199.75
390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
638
1.33
STAGECOACH GROUP
337.60
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
448
0.97
78.25
43.75
78.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
235
0.94
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
394.20
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Buy
590
NATIONAL GRID
790.50
669.50
847.50
Neutral
Buy
1005
0.45
PENNON GROUP
690.50
598.00
768.00
Neutral
Sell
635
0.61
SSE
1575.00
1312.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2297
0.41
SEVERN TRENT
1777.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1542
0.34
722.50
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
767
0.48
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
0.50
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
liable to any other party for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use
of this report.
The Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any
jurisdiction where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or
availability of the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information may be prohibited.
Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis
Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be
taken or transmitted into the United States, Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any
jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a
violation of relevant local securities laws. Recipients of Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys
reports outside the UK are not covered by the rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in
the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any Intellisys reports and/or the Intellisys website, in whatever
form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the Terms and Conditions of Use
pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the terms set forth.
Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intellisys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
Intellisys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have positions
in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and may buy,
sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal
rules.
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 16 of 17
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided
solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you must contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
www.intellisys.uk.com
02 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 17 of 17