4/2556 2557

(GDP) 4 2556 2557

4 2556
2556 (GDP)
0.6 2556
0.6 0.7
1.7 2556 2.9
2.7
(1) 4.5
2555 42.0 2555

(2)
11.3 13.1
15.3
2555
4.7


13.2 (3) ( ) 0.9 2555

55,884 . 1.0

( 1.7) ( 11.8) ( 8.9)
( 5.9) ( 25.0)
( 22.9) ( 37.2) ( 1.2)
52,036 . 7.6



2.0 3.5

2
2.3

1.8
4.8 5.4
7.1 10.7 2.9
3
7.7
2556
2556 2.9
6.5 2555 (1) 2555

211,474 2555

0.2 2.8
(2)


2556 225,397 . 0.2
2556
1.4 0.1 1.2
12.1 26.7 19.6
0.7
2.2 0.6 GDP
2557
(1) 3.6
3.1 2556 (2) 102.5 107.5 .
105 110 . (3)
32.0 33.0 . 31.5 32.5 .
. 3.0 4.0
2.9 2556
3.6 3.1 2556
3.0
2

3

4.0 - 5.0 18 2556


1.9 2.9
1 0.2
GDP 0.6 GDP 2556
2557
1.
5.0 - 7.0
2557 2556
2556 5.7
(15)
5.2 6.3 0.7 3.3
2. 2557 27.5
3.0 28.0

0.06
3. 2.0 0.3
2557 92
90.5 2556 2556

2557 .
2557 95
(1)

.. ....
.. 2555 (2)
.. 2558
2558
4.


3.8 5.8
5. 1.4 0.2 2556

4
2556
2557 38 48 20 - 30
2557
1.



2.
2557

3.

4.

17 2557

5
1 GDP
:
( 2531)

2555

2555

2556

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

8.4

3.8

1.4

3.4

1.8

8.3

3.1

0.8

2.5

-0.3

2.3

91.6

6.7

3.0

0.1

4.7

2.7

21.2

5.8

3.0

3.0

0.4

39.1

6.9

0.1

-4.3

2.8

-1.1

37.0

4.9

-1.1

-0.5

-2.9

3.7

9.7

0.9

9.1

11.8

4.9

13.4

2.8

2.8

1.0

-3.2

2.1

7.8

1.2

0.8

6.9

9.8

14.1

10.5

5.0

-2.2

-7.7

13.4

5.2

3.2

4.1

5.4

4.0

7.6

5.1

3.0

2.6

2.2

9.8

8.1

7.9

3.8

7.5

8.0

13.0

8.4

7.7

8.6

7.0

4.2

11.6

12.1

5.6

8.6

7.0

25.7

14.8

14.2

15.1

5.4

4.4

6.5

10.2

6.4

5.5

4.8

9.4

10.0

10.1

11.3

9.1

14.8

4.7

3.3

0.5

4.1

5.3

9.3

3.6

5.3

3.6

0.9

100.0

6.5

2.9

0.4

4.4

3.1

19.1

5.4

2.9

2.7

0.6

10.8

3.1

1.6

2.9

-2.1

0.6

1.4

0.6

GDP
GDP SA.

2555

2556

:
2 GDP
:
( 2531)

2555

2555

2556

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

52.1

6.7

0.2

2.9

5.3

6.0

12.4

4.4

2.5

-1.2

-4.5

10.1

7.5

4.9

-0.2

7.4

10.0

12.5

2.9

7.6

7.3

0.9

22.8

13.2

-1.9

5.2

10.2

15.5

22.9

5.8

4.7

-6.3

-11.3

18.0

14.4

-2.8

9.2

11.8

16.2

20.9

2.9

2.0

-3.1

-13.1

4.8

8.9

1.3

-9.6

4.0

13.2

31.1

18.8

15.4

-16.2

-4.7

73.0

3.1

4.2

-3.2

1.1

-2.8

19.6

8.3

2.9

3.8

2.0

58.0

-0.4

0.2

-5.0

-1.6

-6.2

13.5

3.7

-1.5

-1.4

0.2

15.0

19.1

19.7

4.2

15.4

14.3

45.7

25.7

22.4

25.2

8.0

59.6

6.2

2.3

4.3

8.6

-1.8

15.0

8.1

4.5

0.8

-3.5

50.5

6.5

1.8

4.3

8.8

-2.3

16.9

9.5

4.4

-0.5

-5.3

9.1

4.6

5.2

4.3

7.1

1.3

5.8

1.2

5.3

8.1

6.3

100.0

6.5

2.9

0.4

4.4

3.1

19.1

5.4

2.9

2.7

0.6

GDP

2555

2556

7
3 2557

2555
GDP ( : )

2556

18 .. 56

17 .. 57

11,375

11,897

12,769

12,599

167,501

174,319

186,116

183,638

GDP ( : .)

366

385

399

388

( . )

5,389

5,647

5,816

5,650

GDP ( , %)

6.5

2.9

4.0-5.0

3.0-4.0

13.2

-1.9

7.1

3.1

14.4

-2.8

5.8

3.8

( , %)

8.9

1.3

12.0

0.3

( , %)

6.8

1.0

2.9

1.6

( , %)

6.7

0.2

2.7

1.4

( , %)

7.5

4.9

3.8

2.0

3.1

4.2

7.0

6.0

225.9

225.4

241.0

241.2

3.1

-0.2

7.0

5.0-7.0

2.5

0.2

6.0

4.0-6.0

6.2

2.3

6.2

4.6

219.9

219.0

236.0

231.7

8.8

-0.4

6.7

5.7

7.1

1.7

6.2

5.2

6.0

6.4

5.8

9.6

-1.5

-2.8

-2.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.6

-0.6

-0.2

3.0

2.2

2.1-3.1

1.9-2.9

GDP Deflator

1.3

1.7

2.1-3.1

1.9-2.9

()

( , %)
( , %)

(, %)
( .)
(, %)

2/

(, %)

2/

(, %)
( .)
(, %)

2/

(, %)
( .)

2/

1/

( .)
GDP (%)

1/

1/

(%)

: , 17 2557
: 1/ 6 IMF
( http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspx)

2/

Thai Economy in Q4/2013 and Outlook for 2014

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced the
official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q4/2013 and the outlook for 2014 as follows:
The Thai economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 expanded by 0.6 percent. Compared to the
third quarter on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the economy registered 0.6 percent
growth. Overall economic stability remained sound which can be seen from a 0.7 percent
unemployment rate and 1.7 percent inflation rate together with a small current account surplus. In
2013, the Thai economy expanded by 2.9 percent.

The Thai Economy in the fourth quarter of 2013

The Thai economy in the fourth quarter of 2013, measured by GDP, expanded by 0.6
percent slowing down from 2.7 percent in the previous quarter. This owed to a decline in domestic
demand. Household expenditure contracted by 4.5 percent. This is due mainly to a 42 percent
contraction of passenger car sales in this quarter as compared to the fourth quarter of 2012 during which
the delivery of passenger cars under the first-time-car-buyer scheme peaked. Deteriorated consumer
confidence which was caused by the political unrest also rendered consumers cautious in spending.
Meanwhile the government expenditure at constant price expanded by only 0.9 percent due to the
decline in payment to government officials who joined early retirement program.
Total investment contracted by 11.3 percent. Private investment declined by 13.1 percent,
aggravated from a contraction of 3.1 percent in the previous quarter due to a decline in both
machinery and construction investment following worsened business sentiment. Public investment
contracted by 4.7 percent due primarily to the decline in disbursement of the off budget including
investment budget under TKK, investment budget under the Development Policy Loan, and loan
under Water Resource Management Program. The decline was seen in the contraction of
government construction.
In the mean time, export values of goods were 55,884 million US dollar, declining by 1.0
percent resulting from the global economic slowdown and the impacts from the Early Mortality
Syndrome (EMS) in shrimp production. Exported goods which registered increase include, for
example, electronics (1.7%), petroleum products (11.8%), machinery and equipment (8.9%), and
agricultural products (5.9%). Exported items which contracted include, for example, passenger cars
(22.9%), fishery products (-22.9%), metal products (-37.2%), and sugar (-1.2%). Import value of
goods stood at 52,036 million US dollar, significantly contracted by 7.6 percent. However, the
number of tourists showed a slowdown in the latter half of the year though still increased compared
with the same period of last year. Hence net export volumes of goods and services (volume of
exports minus volume of imports of goods and services) expanded and together with mounting

2
inventories supported the economy in the fourth quarter to record a positive growth. Export
volumes of goods and services expanded by 2.0 percent, slightly decelerated from 3.8 percent in the
previous quarter. Nevertheless, import volumes of goods and services decreased by 3.5 percent.
On the production side, agricultural sector expanded by 2.3 percent. This improvement was
mainly attributed to the increase in key products particularly that of rice, rubber, and livestock.
Meanwhile, production of sugarcane, cassava, oil palm, and fishery declined. Meanwhile average
agricultural price increased by 1.8 percent and contributed to 4.8 percent increase in farm income.
Hotel and restaurants sector grew by 5.4 percent. The number of inbound tourists stood at 7.1
million persons or accounted for 10.7 percent growth, slowing down from 26.1 percent in the
previous quarter. Manufacturing sector declined by 2.9 percent, the third consecutive quarter of
contraction. This was mainly due to the declines in private consumption and export of manufacturing
products. In addition, construction sector contracted by 7.7 percent, contributed by a contraction in
government and private construction.

Thai economy in 2013

In 2013, the Thai economy expanded by 2.9 percent, considerably slowed down from 6.5
percent in 2012. This was mainly attributed to the high bases of private consumption and
investment and deceleration of the quantity of exported goods and services. The high base of
private consumption and investment in the second half of 2012 was primarily stimulated by the
governments first-car-buyer scheme which resulted in the large increase in car sale in 2012
especially the sale of 211,474 passenger cars in Q4/2012. This momentum of economic stimulus
measure was diminished in 2013. Hence 2013 registered a slowdown in domestic demand while
consumer confidence declined. Household expenditure grew by 0.2 percent while government
expenditure and investment also decelerated. Moreover, export volumes of goods and services
remained sluggish owing to the unclear sign of the global economic recovery, the EMS in shrimp, and
the slow adjustment to adapt to a more advanced technology in electronic sectors. In 2013, export
values of goods registered at 225,397 million US dollar, slightly declined by 0.2 percent.
The slowdown in consumption and exports brought about the slowdown in production of all
sector. In 2013, agricultural sector increased by 1.4 percent. Manufacturing sector expanded by 0.1
percent. Construction sector grew by 1.2 percent and hotel and restaurants sector expanded by 12.1
percent. The number of inbound tourists totaled 26.7 million persons or accounted for 19.6 percent
growth rate.
However, economic stability remained sound. In 2013, the unemployment rate stood at 0.7
percent and the headline inflation was 2.2 percent. The current account recorded a deficit of 0.6
percent of GDP.

Economic Outlook for 2014

The Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) makes the
following assumptions for the 2014 economic forecast in this release: (1) The world economic
growth of 3.6 percent, accelerating from 3.1 percent in 2013, (2) Dubai oil price is in the range of
102.5-107.5 USD, lower than 105-110 USD assumed in the previous forecast, and (3) Exchange rate

3
of baht is averaged at 32.0-33.0 baht per one USD, weaker than the assumption of 31.5-32.5
baht/USD used in the previous forecast.
Based on the said assumptions, NESDB projects that the Thai economy in 2014 will grow in
the range of 3.0-4.0 percent, improving from a 2.9 percent in 2013. The main contributions include
the recovery of export sector in line with the recovery of the global economy which is expected to
grow by 3.6 percent as compared to 3.1 percent growth in 2013. Tourism is also expected to
positively support the economic growth in 2014. Despite some impacts from the political unrest
during the first half of 2014, the number of foreign tourists is predicted to increase by 3 percent. In
addition, the increase in disbursement of government budget and the recovery of private
investment are likely to contribute to the economic growth. It is expected that the enactment of
investment promotion policy will be made clear and effective in the second half of the year when
the approval of the application for investment promotion is expected to increase.
All in all, the domestic demand may face with some constraints and is expected to remain
sluggish and as a result the economic growth in 2014 will be lower than 4.0-5.0 percent in previous
projection released on 18 November 2013. This is due primarily to a delay in public investment
projects implementation and weak private consumption.
Nevertheless, overall economic stability remained favorable. The headline inflation is likely
to be in the range of 1.9 - 2.9 percent provided that domestic demand does not pick up strongly
while crude oil prices are likely to be stable. The unemployment rate tends to be lower than 1
percent. The current account will record a deficit of 0.2 percent of GDP, improves slightly from a
deficit of 0.6 percent of GDP in 2013. Detailed descriptions of each component in the projection are
as follows:
1. Export sector started to show a clear sign of recovery and is likely to continue to grow
at a faster pace. It is expected that export value will be able to grow by 5.0-7.0 percent, and will be
one of the most important supportive factors for economic growth in 2014. The global economic
recovery prevailed more clearly towards the end of 2013, providing support for Thailands export
sector. Export volumes, after seasonal adjustment, expanded by 5.7 percent compared to the third
quarter 2012. Values of export to the US and the Euro zone (15) increased by 5.2 and 6.3 percent, up
from 0.7 and 3.3 percent in the third quarter respectively.
2. The number of foreign tourists in 2014 is expected to reach 27.5 million persons
increase by 3.0 percent from 2013, but lower than previous assumption of 28.0 million persons
which was the official target and was used in the last projection. This is because many countries
have issued tourist warning for travelling into Thailand. This already had an impact on the number of
tourist visiting Thailand in January 2014 which increased by only 0.06 percent.
3. Private consumption expenditure is expected to grow by 1.4 percent, improving from
0.2 percent expansion in 2013 but still lower than the previous projection since the domestic
political disturbances are likely to dampen consumer confidence further. In addition, the unusual
high base of domestic car sales during the first half of 2013 will result in a decline in domestic car
sales in 2014. It is thus predicted that the sale of passenger cars will drop in the range of 38-48
percent in the first quarter and 20-30 percent in the second quarter of 2014.

4
4. Private investment is likely to recover at a slow pace in line with the recovery state of
the overall economy coupled with a result of the political disturbance that will defer the recovery
of business confidence. New investors are likely to wait for a direction of the political resolution,
direction of investment promotion policy and major public investment plans. Thus, private
investment is expected to expand by 3.8 percent, lower than 5.8 percent in the previous forecast.
5. Public expenditure is expected to grow by 2.0 percent, and public investment to grow
by 0.3 percent, NESDB expects that the disbursement rate in FY2014 will reach 92 percent, slightly
higher than 90.5 percent in FY2013. This is partly contributed by some carry over expenditure from
FY2013 when the disbursement rate was lower than the target despite the measures to accelerate
disbursement and its efficiency. However, the FY2014 disbursement rate assumed in this forecast is
lower than 95 percent disbursement rate assumed in the previous forecast. The reasons behind this
revision include (1) a delay in public investment plan both under the Royal Decree on investment
loan for public infrastructure development B.E., and the investment plan under the Royal Decree
on investment loan for water resource management and future development in 2012, and (2) a
delay in the formation of the new government and thus will defer the budgeting process of the FY
2015. As a result, only some parts of FY2015 budget can be disbursed within the first quarter of the
fiscal year (the fourth quarter of the calendar year 2015).

Economic Management in 2014

1. Expediting exports to expand at its full potential in order to be an income base for
supporting domestic demand and to serve as a key engine for the Thai economy. The policies should
be emphasized on raising export income from major markets and newly high-potential markets,
supporting adjustment of production sector, as well as promoting boarder and interregional trade by
facilitating cross-border trade and transport as well as facilitating entrepreneurs to penetrate the
markets in neighboring countries.
2. Administering the public projects which have already been approved to proceed in the
operation stage and to achieve the target of the FY2014 disbursement rate. Operational plans for the
projects which still need to be scrutinized by the new cabinet must be prepared in order to expedite their
operations in the latter half of the year. It is also necessary to clarify and address guidelines for public
infrastructure investment projects as well as to improve the investment promotion policy and the
scrutiny of the pending investment applications for approval.
3. Implementing accommodative monetary policies for the economic recovery including
preceding exchange rate from overly volatile, and managing the liquidity in the economy as well
as ensuring the access to credit in particular for SMEs entrepreneurs
4. Preparing for mitigating the impacts from intensified drought conditions including, for
example, providing alternative job opportunity during the drought period and adjustment of
production process.
Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board
17th February 2014

5
Table 1: GDP by production components (at constant 1988 prices, %)
Weight
2012

2012

2013

Agriculture

8.4

3.8

Non-Agriculture

91.6

Manufacturing

2012

2013

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

1.4

3.4

1.8

8.3

3.1

0.8

2.5

-0.3

2.3

6.7

3.0

0.1

4.7

2.7

21.2

5.8

3.0

3.0

0.4

39.1

6.9

0.1

-4.3

2.8

-1.1

37.0

4.9

-1.1

-0.5

-2.9

Electricity, Gas and Water Supply

3.7

9.7

0.9

9.1

11.8

4.9

13.4

2.8

2.8

1.0

-3.2

Construction

2.1

7.8

1.2

0.8

6.9

9.8

14.1

10.5

5.0

-2.2

-7.7

Wholesale and Retail Trade

13.4

5.2

3.2

4.1

5.4

4.0

7.6

5.1

3.0

2.6

2.2

Transport and Communications

9.8

8.1

7.9

3.8

7.5

8.0

13.0

8.4

7.7

8.6

7.0

Hotels and Restaurants

4.2

11.6

12.1

5.6

8.6

7.0

25.7

14.8

14.2

15.1

5.4

Financial Intermediation

4.4

6.5

10.2

6.4

5.5

4.8

9.4

10.0

10.1

11.3

9.1

Other

14.8

4.7

3.3

0.5

4.1

5.3

9.3

3.6

5.3

3.6

0.9

100.00

6.5

2.9

0.4

4.4

3.1

19.1

5.4

2.9

2.7

0.6

10.8

3.1

1.6

2.9

-2.1

0.6

1.4

0.6

GDP
GDP SA.

Source: NESDB

Table 2: GDP by expenditure components (at constant 1988 Prices, %)

2012

Weight
2012

2012

2013

Private Consumption Expenditure

52.1

6.7

Government Consumption Expenditure

10.1

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

2013

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.2

2.9

5.3

6.0

12.4

4.4

2.5

-1.2

-4.5

7.5

4.9

-0.2

7.4

10.0

12.5

2.9

7.6

7.3

0.9

22.8

13.2

-1.9

5.2

10.2

15.5

22.9

5.8

4.7

-6.3

-11.3

Private

18.0

14.4

-2.8

9.2

11.8

16.2

20.9

2.9

2.0

-3.1

-13.1

Public

4.8

8.9

1.3

-9.6

4.0

13.2

31.1

18.8

15.4

-16.2

-4.7

73.0

3.1

4.2

-3.2

1.1

-2.8

19.6

8.3

2.9

3.8

2.0

Goods (f.o.b.)

58.0

-0.4

0.2

-5.0

-1.6

-6.2

13.5

3.7

-1.5

-1.4

0.2

Services

15.0

19.1

19.7

4.2

15.4

14.3

45.7

25.7

22.4

25.2

8.0

59.6

6.2

2.3

4.3

8.6

-1.8

15.0

8.1

4.5

0.8

-3.5

Goods (c.i.f.)

50.5

6.5

1.8

4.3

8.8

-2.3

16.9

9.5

4.4

-0.5

-5.3

Services

9.1

4.6

5.2

4.3

7.1

1.3

5.8

1.2

5.3

8.1

6.3

100.0

6.5

2.9

0.4

4.4

3.1

19.1

5.4

2.9

2.7

0.6

Exports of Goods and Services

Imports of Goods and Services

GDP

Source: NESDB

6
Table 3: Economic Projection 2014
Actual Data

Projection
18 Nov 13

17 Feb 14

2012

2013

11,375

11,897

12,769

12,599

167,501

174,319

186,116

183,638

366

385

399

388

GDP per capita (USD per year)

5,389

5,647

5,816

5,650

GDP Growth (at constant prices, %)

6.5

2.9

4.0-5.0

3.0-4.0

Investment (at constant prices, %)

13.2

-1.9

7.1

3.1

Private (at constant prices, %)

14.4

-2.8

5.8

3.8

Public (at constant prices, %)

8.9

1.3

12.0

0.3

Consumption (at constant prices, %)

6.8

1.0

2.9

1.6

Private (at constant prices, %)

6.7

0.2

2.7

1.4

Public (at constant prices, %)

7.5

4.9

3.8

2.0

3.1

4.2

7.0

6.0

225.9

225.4

241.0

241.2

3.1

-0.2

7.0

5.0-7.0

2.5

0.2

6.0

4.0-6.0

6.2

2.3

6.2

4.6

219.9

219.0

236.0

231.7

8.8

-0.4

6.7

5.7

7.1

1.7

6.2

5.2

6.0

6.4

5.8

9.6

-1.5

-2.8

-2.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.6

-0.6

-0.2

CPI

3.0

2.2

2.1-3.1

1.9-2.9

GDP Deflator

1.3

1.7

2.1-3.1

1.9-2.9

GDP (at current prices: Bil. Bht)

GDP per capita (Bht per year)
GDP (at current prices: Bil. USD)

Export volume of goods & services (%)

Export value of goods (Bil. USD)
Growth rate (%)

1/

2/

Growth rate (Volume, %)

2/

Import volume of goods & services (%)

Import value of goods (Bil. USD)
Growth rate (%)

1/

2/

Growth rate (Volume, %)

Trade balance (Bil. USD)

2/

1/

Current account balance (Bil. USD)

Current account to GDP (%)

1/

Inflation (%)

Source: Office of National Economic and Social Development Board, 17 th February 2014
Note: 1/ Bank of Thailand has adjusted the balance of payments calculation method based on the 6th IMF Balance of Payment
and International Investment Position Manual (for more information, see
http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspx)
2/
Export and import base on the Bank of Thailands data.