Stuck in the mud

FAILING to meet low expectations is becoming a habit for Brazils economy. Figures published on May 29th showed that in the first quarter of this year it grew by just 0.6% (2.4% annualised), well short of the recovery analysts had expected. For the first time in years the country is running a trade deficit. Its primary fiscal surplus (ie, before interest payments) is shrinking and government debt is growing. Other emerging economies are also cutting growth forecasts, as China slows and the euro zone slumps. But Brazils woes started earlier than most and seem to be home-grown. Inflation close to 6.5% despite low growth suggests domestic rigidities are the main problem, rather than weak foreign demand. After becoming president in 2011, Dilma Rousseff sought to stimulate growth by hiking public spending and the minimum wage, and forcing state-run banks to lend more. The resulting inflation was tackled not by raising interest rates but by cutting sales taxes and holding down the price of items with a big impact on the inflation index, including food, petrol and bus fares. Until recently voters reacted favourably, though the economy did not. Polls in March gave Ms Rousseff a record-breaking 79% approval rating, making her the clear favourite to win next years presidential election and allowing her to put off economic adjustments until a second term. But stagnant growth is now hitting Brazilians in their pockets. After successive wage rises, this years pay deals barely outpace inflation. Already indebted, households are reining in their spending. Consumer confidence is falling and more people say rising prices are their biggest economic worry. The swift deterioration in the economic data and public sentiment seems to have forced the governments hand. Despite the weak growth figures, the Central Bank surprised markets by raising the base interest rate from 7.5% to 8%, making Brazil the only big economy currently tightening monetary policy. The banks governor, Alexandre Tombini, said the move had Ms Rousseffs full support. It went some way to restoring the institutions inflation-fighting credentials, badly dented by the presidents determination to push down rates even as inflation rose.

TRADUCERE

Blocat n noroi
A nu ndeplini ateptrile redus devine un obicei pentru economia Braziliei. Cifrele publicate pe 29 mai, a artat c, n primul trimestru din acest an a crescut de la 0,6% (2,4% annualised), de asemenea scurt de recuperare analiti au avut de ateptat. Pentru prima dat n ani ara se execut un deficit comercial. Sale excedent primar fiscale (adic, nainte de dobnzi) este n scdere i datoria

Guvernului este n cretere. Alte economii emergente sunt, de asemenea, de tiere previziunile de cretere, ca China ncetinete i zona euro se prbuesc. Dar problemele Braziliei a nceput mai devreme dect majoritatea i par a fi cultivate. Inflaia aproape de 6,5% n ciuda cretere sczut sugereaz rigiditilor de pe piaa intern sunt problema principal, mai degrab dect de cererea extern slab.

Dup ce a devenit preedinte n 2011, Dilma Rousseff a cutat pentru a stimula creterea de drumeii cheltuielilor publice i salariul minim, i fornd bncile de stat-rula pentru a da mai mult. Inflaia rezultat a fost abordat nu de creterea ratelor dobnzii, ci de taxa la vnzri de tiere i de exploataie n jos preul de articole cu un mare impact asupra indicelui inflaiei, inclusiv alimente, benzin i autobuz tarife. Pn de curnd alegtorii au reacionat favorabil, dei economia nu a fcut. Sondaje n martie a dat Ms Rousseff un record 79% aprobarea rating, fcnd-o clar favorit pentru a ctiga alegerile prezideniale de anul viitor i care s permit o pentru a pune off ajustrile economice pn la al doilea mandat. Dar stagnante de cretere brazilienii sunt loviti n buzunarele lor. Dup ce se ridica salariul succesiv, oferte de plata anul acesta abia domine inflaiei. Deja ndatorat, gospodrii sunt reining n cheltuielile lor. ncrederea consumatorilor este n scdere i mai multe persoane spun preurile n cretere sunt lor mai mari griji economice. Deteriorare rapid a datelor economice i sentimentul publice pare s au for at guvernul pe mna. n ciuda expansiunii cifrele, banca central a surprins piee prin ridicarea nivelului de baz rata dobnzii la 7,5% la 8%, fcnd Brazilia numai mare economie n prezent nspririi politicii monetare. Guvernatorul Bncii, Alexandre Tombini, spus muta Ms Rousseff \"suport complet\". Acesta a plecat n unele mod pentru restabilirea instituiei acreditrile de combatere a inflaiei, prost dented de determinarea preedintelui de a mpinge n jos ratele chiar ca inflaia a crescut.