Soy Production in the U.S.

- The USDA's forecast of September 2013

by Eduardo Petazze

Market Expectations
According to a Reuters poll, in the USDA September production forecast (release on Sep. 12, 2013) is expected to trim its soybean yield estimate to 41.2 bushels per acre (3,147 million bushels), from 42.6 bushels in August. According to a Bloomberg survey, U.S. farmers may harvest 3.13 billion bushels of soybeans (41.0 bushels per acre), 3.7% less than estimated a month ago. According to our previous estimate, the yield for 2013 will be around 41.8 brushels per acre, with a final production of the order of 3,195 million bushels. Earlier this week, weekly USDA reports were released: Crop Progress, released September 9, 2013 pdf, 13 pages Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, released September 10, 2013 pdf, 48 pages Soybean condition: 52% of the soybean crop was reported in good to excellent condition, down 2% points from last week but 20% better than the same time last year Updating our projection model with these reports, the yield could be reduced to 41.4 bushel per acre, for a total production of 3,163 million bushels (86.1 mln tons)

Market reaction
Hours before the report on Monday 9, soybean prices for the Nov13 position fell from 1,375 $/bu to 1,345 $/bu. Prices after the crop condition report adjusted to go up to 1,355 $/bu.