Professional Documents
Culture Documents
25 September 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued ....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Over Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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25 September 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
25 September 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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25 September 2013
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVON RUBBER
527.50
297.50
527.50
Neutral
Neutral
504
0.93
BAE SYSTEMS
450.90
300.80
455.40
Neutral
Buy
620
0.70
CHEMRING GROUP
313.70
217.00
353.30
Neutral
Neutral
337
0.67
COBHAM
293.40
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
296
0.82
MEGGITT
557.00
366.20
564.00
Neutral
Sell
519
1.25
QINETIQ GROUP
193.00
179.00
211.10
Neutral
Sell
116
0.65
1132.00
822.44
1240.00
Neutral
Buy
1512
0.98
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
SENIOR
Target
Beta
272.80
185.90
288.40
Neutral
Neutral
273
1.66
SMITHS GROUP
1395.00
1018.00
1412.00
Neutral
Sell
1217
0.76
1909.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1719
0.51
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
GKN
347.60
201.00
360.70
Neutral
Sell
-1828
1.96
INCHCAPE
610.50
353.30
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2948
1.41
LOOKERS
126.00
71.50
128.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
665
1.22
PENDRAGON
34.25
13.50
35.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
262
1.04
TOROTRAK
27.50
23.50
36.50
Neutral
Sell
13
0.73
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARCLAYS
271.45
197.36
308.39
Neutral
Sell
Target
-645
Beta
1.96
685.70
573.30
769.90
Neutral
Buy
843
1.19
74.21
37.01
78.00
Neutral
Sell
1.88
367.90
255.10
369.00
Neutral
Sell
-101
1.39
STANDARD CHARTERED
1536.50
1380.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3346
1.67
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BARR (AG)
541.50
432.20
588.50
Neutral
Sell
429
BRITVIC
581.00
349.10
592.00
Neutral
Buy
828
0.73
DIAGEO
2019.50
1739.50
2136.50
Sell
Buy
2357
0.51
SABMILLER
3231.00
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5157
0.89
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
0.58
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Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ALENT
368.80
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3776
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
304.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
549
1.11
CARCLO
407.75
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
128
0.74
2738.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3269
1.05
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
246.60
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
300
1.07
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2867.00
2190.00
2985.00
Neutral
Buy
4086
1.44
VICTREX
1630.00
1322.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1350
1.16
SYNTHOMER
240.50
146.00
249.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
382
1.05
ZOTEFOAMS
196.50
186.50
225.00
Neutral
Buy
291
1.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
137.00
77.50
137.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
293
0.55
BALFOUR BEATTY
284.00
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1095
0.82
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
Target
Beta
321.40
168.00
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
643
1.67
BELLWAY
1323.00
913.00
1502.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2993
0.96
0.55
2059.00
1387.00
2340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5240
BOOT (HENRY)
190.00
123.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
375
0.74
752.50
487.00
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1502
1.07
CARILLION
317.20
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1621
1.06
CLARKE (T)
63.50
40.00
64.63
Neutral
Strong Buy
407
0.76
260.50
226.25
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1173
0.50
CRH
1499.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
921
1.03
GALLIFORD TRY
1029.00
678.00
1070.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3106
0.93
KELLER
1059.00
543.00
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2504
1.28
KIER GROUP
1679.00
1106.00
1683.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5601
0.99
79.50
50.00
80.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
234
1.08
MARSHALLS
177.50
85.00
184.00
Neutral
Buy
216
1.33
746.00
508.00
746.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4820
0.70
COSTAIN GROUP
NORCROS
21.75
11.25
21.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
72
1.02
1123.00
685.75
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2092
0.99
REDROW
236.60
152.90
255.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
479
0.84
SIG
187.80
99.00
193.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
557
1.68
43.00
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4468
0.89
PERSIMMON
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
102.00
54.30
113.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
1.58
TRAVIS PERKINS
1623.00
1030.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4632
1.94
WOLSELEY
3343.00
2635.64
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6328
1.30
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1161.00
999.50
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
1054
0.67
639.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
885
1.12
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
140.00
105.50
140.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
287
1.25
INVENSYS
504.50
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
292
1.42
LAIRD
224.40
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
448
2.06
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1320.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1154
1.11
RENISHAW
1800.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2071
1.28
SPECTRIS
2225.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2827
1.51
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
195.00
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-431
0.76
TT ELECTRONICS
198.50
114.00
200.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
437
1.61
XAAR
777.50
244.13
898.00
Neutral
Sell
419
1.08
DIALIGHT
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
125.75
54.25
128.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
150
Beta
1.14
BODYCOTE
665.50
345.10
685.00
Neutral
Neutral
658
1.59
CASTINGS
420.00
291.00
450.00
Neutral
Buy
583
0.93
VESUVIUS
453.60
263.19
487.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1241
2.23
FENNER
407.00
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Buy
580
1.47
HALMA
560.50
410.40
578.00
Neutral
Sell
425
0.79
474.00
364.00
480.00
Neutral
Buy
565
1.31
1457.00
900.00
1513.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4382
1.39
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARCO
309.90
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
509
1.89
2769.00
2229.00
3037.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4392
1.01
62.25
35.40
76.91
Neutral
Sell
52
0.79
2986.00
1932.53
3090.00
Neutral
Sell
1845
0.81
VITEC GROUP
690.00
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
497
1.34
WEIR GROUP
2381.00
1688.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2293
1.45
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
437.40
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
810
0.45
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
287.60
248.60
302.50
Neutral
Buy
396
0.37
SAINSBURY (J)
398.00
321.90
400.80
Neutral
Buy
479
0.55
TESCO
374.00
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
200
0.67
95.50
28.63
100.50
Neutral
Sell
60
0.79
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1856.00
1289.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1642
0.59
CRANSWICK
1179.00
732.50
1189.00
Neutral
Buy
1768
0.31
DAIRY CREST
471.80
332.90
528.50
Neutral
Sell
377
0.88
DEVRO
325.50
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
512
0.36
PREMIER FOODS
143.25
59.75
166.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
248
1.23
768.00
654.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1346
0.65
2524.00
2252.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2193
0.50
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
26.25
25.00
29.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
46
0.67
529.00
266.40
577.00
Neutral
Neutral
532
0.50
1632.00
1000.00
1667.00
Neutral
Sell
1281
1.29
667.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
257
0.87
47.34
19.21
47.34
Neutral
Neutral
45
1.46
233.75
108.00
253.75
Neutral
Sell
154
1.04
Target
Beta
32.00
22.75
34.00
Sell
Sell
12
1.03
397.00
259.30
406.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
606
0.71
1053.00
670.00
1053.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2118
0.51
70.50
39.00
88.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
125
1.22
KINGFISHER
395.50
262.20
420.00
Neutral
Buy
563
0.90
503.50
356.80
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
763
0.61
72.25
48.50
74.88
Neutral
Buy
87
0.95
383.75
205.75
492.75
Neutral
Sell
137
0.36
NEXT
5150.00
3444.00
5205.00
Neutral
Neutral
5467
0.59
TED BAKER
1866.00
899.00
2017.00
Neutral
Sell
1077
0.57
86.00
46.00
89.75
Neutral
Neutral
82
1.50
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
146.50
130.00
160.00
Neutral
Sell
115
0.38
CONSORT MEDICAL
851.50
660.50
863.00
Neutral
Sell
664
0.35
OPTOS
158.00
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Neutral
172
1.18
771.00
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
660
0.40
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
788.00
601.00
794.50
Neutral
Neutral
768
0.31
HEADLAM GROUP
398.00
295.00
415.00
Neutral
Buy
456
0.89
80.50
55.25
87.50
Neutral
Sell
49
0.69
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
993.00
566.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
444
0.69
CSR
512.00
312.60
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1560
1.13
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
64.25
30.75
83.25
Neutral
Buy
84
0.93
350.60
235.10
552.00
Neutral
Sell
241
1.04
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
127.20
118.00
169.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
402
0.90
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
175.50
140.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-17
0.93
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1213.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-515
0.52
AMLIN
401.00
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1551
0.38
BEAZLEY
216.00
167.00
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
961
0.52
CATLIN GROUP
489.00
455.30
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
480
0.23
HISCOX
634.50
463.32
660.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1924
0.42
0.30
ADMIRAL GROUP
Target
Beta
945.00
723.00
949.50
Neutral
Buy
1217
125.00
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
740
0.35
NOVAE GROUP
520.50
345.00
520.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3485
0.35
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2258.00
2125.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3289
0.95
ENTERPRISE INNS
148.00
62.25
153.80
Neutral
Sell
97
1.65
TUI TRAVEL
356.50
230.10
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
691
0.96
907.00
716.00
969.00
Neutral
Sell
570
0.27
GREENE KING
793.50
587.00
897.50
Neutral
Sell
584
0.89
LADBROKES
188.50
171.00
243.10
Neutral
Buy
250
0.90
1838.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1612
1.09
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
559.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
557
1.36
430.50
286.40
460.00
Sell
Sell
254
0.98
120.70
101.30
156.00
Neutral
Sell
59
1.28
15.00
6.15
15.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
66
1.15
161.00
137.30
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
549
0.97
0.66
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
543.50
354.40
575.00
Neutral
Sell
372
WETHERSPOON (JD)
739.50
475.50
767.00
Neutral
Sell
655
0.54
WHITBREAD
2992.00
2263.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2078
0.98
WILLIAM HILL
411.00
293.10
494.50
Neutral
Sell
347
0.84
MARSTON'S
152.40
114.20
165.50
Neutral
Sell
10
1.15
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
403.70
294.10
419.80
Neutral
Sell
373
1.18
CHESNARA
275.00
176.50
276.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
533
0.61
202.20
131.40
203.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
504
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
193.80
166.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
406
1.55
PRUDENTIAL
1179.00
801.50
1232.00
Neutral
Neutral
1213
1.69
620.50
367.10
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6859
0.83
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
25 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
145.75
102.00
149.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.40
885.50
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.46
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
57.50
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.06
788.00
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.06
1149.00
747.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.93
INFORMA
537.50
380.50
545.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.64
ITE GROUP
275.80
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.46
ITV
177.30
85.65
183.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.46
1.21
JOHNSTON PRESS
14.50
7.70
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1280.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.65
PHOTO-ME INTL.
112.50
46.75
112.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.85
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
294.50
269.00
294.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.14
36.52
26.85
36.52
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.52
STV GROUP
244.00
91.00
262.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
171.00
76.25
172.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.49
TRINITY MIRROR
124.25
50.50
128.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.58
UBM
725.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.34
208.00
121.00
208.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.83
1292.00
788.00
1296.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.25
PEARSON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1545.50
1207.00
2072.00
Neutral
Sell
1272
1.85
198.50
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
206
1.09
ANTOFAGASTA
850.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
833
1.42
1860.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2897
1.49
GLENCORE XSTRATA
338.10
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1015
#NA
LONMIN
328.90
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
444
2.05
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4493.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2837
0.48
RIO TINTO
3106.50
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2508
1.55
992.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2768
2.29
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1208.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
902
0.84
BP
442.30
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1006
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
259.40
251.80
296.10
Buy
Sell
-24
1.33
10.00
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
108
0.81
823.50
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
568
1.35
62.50
48.50
81.00
Neutral
Sell
-55
1.33
331.70
321.30
400.20
Buy
Buy
413
1.49
2150.00
2098.00
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8381
0.83
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
428.90
319.90
428.90
Neutral
Buy
491
0.52
1065.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
705
1.07
819.50
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
726
1.44
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
25 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
122.25
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Buy
166
PZ CUSSONS
420.90
300.00
432.50
Neutral
Sell
375
0.71
4546.00
3565.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4680
0.31
Beta
0.83
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.41
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-5
0.91
3218.00
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
7615
0.49
BTG
387.20
317.50
397.90
Neutral
Sell
159
0.70
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
722.50
569.00
780.00
Neutral
Sell
517
0.18
1603.00
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Neutral
1602
0.50
0.53
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
Target
Beta
2.20
1.33
2.83
Buy
Sell
-3
51.50
51.50
612.50
Strong Buy
Sell
-271
0.90
2489.00
1727.00
2593.00
Neutral
Sell
1143
0.69
SKYEPHARMA
97.25
43.50
97.25
Neutral
Sell
-14
0.55
VERNALIS
28.75
19.38
31.00
Neutral
Sell
0.84
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
435.00
311.60
445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
741
BRITISH LAND
585.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
849
1.05
2387.00
1946.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5130
1.24
541.00
442.20
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1155
1.06
HAMMERSON
504.50
451.00
554.00
Neutral
Buy
572
1.27
INTU PROPERTIES
324.00
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
589
1.14
927.00
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1829
1.16
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
1.18
30.38
24.25
39.25
Neutral
Sell
-174
0.81
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
119.70
103.20
119.70
Neutral
Sell
-8
0.34
MCKAY SECURITIES
162.00
131.50
162.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
293
0.65
450.00
325.00
500.00
Neutral
Sell
246
0.37
328.75
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
113
0.26
47.00
30.69
47.00
Neutral
Sell
-399
0.62
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
SEGRO
307.00
221.60
313.60
Neutral
Sell
-321
1.82
SHAFTESBURY
590.50
522.50
668.00
Neutral
Buy
881
1.04
225.00
178.75
225.00
Neutral
Sell
1.04
WORKSPACE GROUP
414.70
264.00
475.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1409
1.02
www.intellisys.uk.com
25 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
335.50
213.30
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
658
Beta
0.73
41.50
22.75
42.00
Neutral
Sell
-51
0.56
CLS HOLDINGS
1172.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2844
0.73
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
3711.00
2706.00
4179.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
14383
0.47
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
193.00
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
190
0.98
GRAINGER
173.70
105.10
187.50
Neutral
Sell
107
1.57
HELICAL BAR
292.00
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
199
0.83
33.25
21.50
33.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
221
0.63
6412.50
4350.00
6512.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14191
0.68
1.02
83.25
51.00
92.00
Sell
Sell
-206
RAVEN RUSSIA
78.25
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
204
1.52
606.00
391.20
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1586
0.69
0.32
SAVILLS
86.50
72.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
366
ST MODWEN PROPS.
SMART (J)
303.00
194.00
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
614
1.63
UNITE GROUP
382.00
250.60
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1597
1.78
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
114.25
109.60
162.00
Neutral
Buy
145
0.66
2633.00
1939.60
2650.00
Neutral
Sell
1526
1.52
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
538.00
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1508
0.90
KOFAX
383.00
260.75
383.00
Neutral
Sell
352
1.04
29.75
20.25
30.25
Neutral
Sell
27
0.81
777.50
543.00
812.50
Neutral
Buy
1065
0.81
PHOENIX IT GROUP
164.75
130.00
184.00
Neutral
Sell
-222
0.73
RM
109.50
64.00
114.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
274
0.54
2009.00
1275.00
2190.00
Neutral
Neutral
2208
0.77
347.10
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
447
0.69
INNOVATION GROUP
MICRO FOCUS INTL.
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
393.20
306.80
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1243
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
270.00
168.00
283.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
653
0.69
8700.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
81901
0.85
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
459.00
260.00
474.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1432
0.93
CHARLES TAYLOR
220.00
155.00
228.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1641
0.65
1189.00
830.00
1189.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4843
0.85
98.00
90.00
110.40
Neutral
Sell
78
0.86
5.45
0.66
5.70
Sell
Sell
-126
0.61
1.44
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
191.60
107.20
192.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
796
ICAP
395.70
280.80
422.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
833
1.07
454.90
287.20
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2225
1.70
INVESTEC
407.20
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2645
1.56
1576.00
930.00
1652.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6680
1.13
85.20
71.80
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4857
1.39
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1580.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5468
0.71
SCHRODERS
2549.00
1518.00
2631.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8165
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
2127.00
1176.00
2174.00
Sell
Strong Buy
11329
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
25 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
271.50
157.75
284.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
584
0.83
AGGREKO
1620.00
1557.00
2370.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3125
1.14
AMEC
1091.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3148
1.11
651.50
322.90
730.00
Neutral
Buy
925
1.64
1197.00
914.00
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2465
0.49
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
Target
Beta
615.00
372.50
615.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2230
0.80
1358.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2638
0.50
570.00
247.00
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1547
0.42
1007.00
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1798
0.54
62.00
34.54
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
412
0.83
COMPASS GROUP
837.50
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1884
0.75
BERENDSEN
904.50
543.00
939.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3224
1.08
DE LA RUE
987.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2273
#NA
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
CAPITA
COMMUNISIS
DIGNITY
1413.00
902.82
1567.68
Neutral
Buy
1623
0.25
DIPLOMA
636.00
435.00
661.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1265
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
272.90
200.00
280.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
841
0.98
ESSENTRA PLC
760.00
500.50
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1212
1.14
G4S
250.20
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
873
0.47
HAYS
112.80
75.20
113.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
378
1.03
HOMESERVE
259.40
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
887
0.89
INTERSERVE
568.00
349.10
591.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2960
1.25
INTERTEK GROUP
3374.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4258
0.80
51.50
31.50
51.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
226
1.10
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.50
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
176
0.57
MENZIES (JOHN)
795.00
573.00
805.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1975
1.41
488.20
346.40
502.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
764
1.36
MITIE GROUP
290.40
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
976
0.52
46.00
33.75
139.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
617
0.31
1082.00
716.00
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1760
0.75
PREMIER FARNELL
214.10
165.50
238.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
526
1.41
REGUS
181.90
96.00
193.40
Neutral
Sell
71
1.38
RENTOKIL INITIAL
109.30
81.30
110.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
437
1.26
OFFICE2OFFICE
PAYPOINT
REXAM
489.10
432.56
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1718
0.84
RICARDO
545.00
349.63
556.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1543
0.90
ROBERT WALTERS
329.00
187.00
329.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
897
1.15
RPC GROUP
473.40
378.00
477.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1555
0.81
RPS GROUP
258.30
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
862
1.51
SERCO GROUP
558.00
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2131
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
95.25
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
347
1.49
SPEEDY HIRE
65.25
28.75
65.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
320
1.18
206.50
92.25
206.50
Sell
Strong Buy
504
0.65
68.50
40.50
70.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
305
0.90
VP
497.25
313.00
499.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2168
0.79
WYG
108.00
49.50
108.00
Sell
Strong Buy
179
0.82
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
www.intellisys.uk.com
25 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
342.50
212.50
348.90
Neutral
Buy
Target
426
39.49
34.31
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
79
0.67
716.50
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
257
0.53
0.89
91.50
68.25
91.50
Neutral
Buy
119
1.20
1305.00
821.00
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
805
0.05
213.10
154.45
213.90
Neutral
Sell
123
0.51
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
305.10
195.70
326.00
Neutral
Sell
220
495.00
350.00
495.00
Neutral
Buy
556
1.06
CLARKSON
2225.00
1150.00
2225.00
Strong Sell
Sell
1251
0.86
EASYJET
1298.00
580.00
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
839
0.77
120.40
92.00
206.76
Neutral
Strong Buy
264
0.88
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1090.00
748.00
1148.00
Neutral
Sell
782
0.72
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1670.00
1220.00
1670.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2843
0.97
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
1.22
NATIONAL EXPRESS
257.30
164.50
274.90
Neutral
Sell
240
1.39
NORTHGATE
425.50
239.50
435.00
Neutral
Sell
343
1.34
STAGECOACH GROUP
326.00
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
452
0.97
WINCANTON
100.25
43.75
105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
269
0.95
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
396.70
310.80
402.20
Neutral
Buy
588
0.50
NATIONAL GRID
746.50
682.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
992
0.45
PENNON GROUP
701.00
598.00
749.50
Neutral
Sell
636
0.63
SSE
1580.00
1364.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2301
0.40
SEVERN TRENT
1811.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1529
0.37
703.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
761
0.49
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
25 September 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
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