Commentary: GOP needs to do the math

September 26, 2013 By Cam Savage TheStatehouseFile.com It has been 37 years since Chevy Chase played President Gerald Ford on Saturday Night Live, and uttered in one famous sketch, It was my understanding that there would be no math during the debate. Its still funny. And it seems shockingly relevant today as Republicans, actual Republicans not late-night caricatures, struggle with simple mathematics. Cam Savage is a principal at Limestone Strategies and a veteran of numerous Republican campaigns. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, held the Senate floor this week for 21 hours and 19 minutes; arguing that the Senate should do what it will assuredly not do, defund Obamacare. My confidence that the Senate will not undo President Obamas signature legislative achievement stems from the fact that the U.S. Senate, as currently comprised, contains 54 members of the presidents party and only 46 Republicans. A majority, still being necessary to control the workings of the upper chamber, requires 51 votes. Fifty-one, coincidentally, ironically, or heart-breakingly depending on your point of view is the number of seats the Republicans would have in the U.S. Senate today if the party had not squandered away seats in Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada in recent years by nominating candidates who were adept at navigating party primaries, but were ultimately less appealing to general election voters than the candidates they defeated in those primaries. Now, dont be confused, standing on the Senate floor for over 21 hours with no opportunity to slip off to the mens room, sit down or even lean on a neighboring desk is a noteworthy accomplishment. Among senatorial feats of endurance, it ranks right up there near the top, just a few hours shy of Sen. Strom Thurmonds record of 24 hours and 18 minutes. Cruzs all-nighter was presumably necessary to convince Democratic lawmakers to pass a resolution that defunds Obamacare while funding the government beyond the end of the fiscal year Tuesday. This is the precise measure passed by the Republican-led House of Representatives. But Cruz now says Republicans should oppose that measure in the Senate to keep Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., and the Senate majority Democrats from striking the provision within the legislation that would defund Obamacare. To get what you want, Cruz says, you must oppose what you want.

No one is exactly sure how Cruz expects this standoff to end, though most Republicans rightly expect that a looming government shutdown if Congress fails to fund the government beyond the end of the fiscal year September 30 would leave them with a weakened negotiating position, a disastrous public relations problem and no closer to accomplishing their ultimate goal of regaining a Senate majority in 2014 from which they might actually be able to say it with me defund Obamacare. With five additional seats in the Senate, Republicans would be in the majority, and the mathematical challenge would be simpler. But alas, they are not, and therefore Cruz knowing full well his Senate gambit is destined to fail insists Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives must remain vigilant in the fight against Obamacare. House Republicans have been nothing if not vigilant in the fight against Obamacare. Noahs rains lasted 40 days and 40 nights, Moses spent 40 days on the mountain, David ruled Israel for 40 years, Jesus was tempted for 40 days, and House Republicans have voted 40 times to repeal or defund Obamacare. Despite this vigilance of biblical proportions, Obamacare is still the law of the land. As it turns out, sweeping power to enact laws, or repeal them, is not something the founders chose to entrust to a simple majority of one-half of one-third of the federal government. One might expect Cruz, a Princeton-educated and Harvard-trained constitutional lawyer, to have picked that up somewhere along his meteoric path to the Senate. Republicans are correct in their insistence that a majority or at least a plurality of Americans do not approve of Obamacare. A recent Pew Research poll found that indeed, 53 percent of Americans disapprove of it. But that is not to say that Americans want to shut the government down over that debate. A CNBC All-America Economic Survey this week found that 59 percent of Americans oppose shutting down the government in order to defund the law. And though many of us would like to forget it, in an expansive nationwide survey last November, President Obama was the avowed choice of 51 percent of American voters 65 million of them. This math lesson is simple. If your goal is to repeal Obamacare, you need to elect more Republicans. To do that, you need only to nominate candidates able to obtain 50 percent of the vote, plus one.

Cam Savage is a principal at Limestone Strategies and a veteran of numerous Republican campaigns and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He is a graduate of Franklin College. He can be reached at Cam@limestone-strategies.com.