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CCP Collapse Good --Ext. Stuff


Chinese human rights improving now HRW 9 (Human Rights Watch, February 20, pg. http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2009/02/20/us-clinton-remarksundermine-rights-reform-china) In recent years, the Chinese AND of suppressing terrorism.

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No offense after the PLA and CCP fight theyll cut back on all modernization programs solves case Gunness, 9 (Kristen, February, 2009, Building a Modern Military: The Economic Crisis and its Impact on the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army, Brookings Institute, JPL)
The PLAs ability to adapt to rapidly changing domestic circumstances also hinges on the state of its relationship with the Party. For

the moment, the Party appears to support the PLA in its modernization goals and seems to be providing it with the resources and funding required, but this may not always be the case depending on the economic or domestic situation. One could imagine that Party-PLA tensions could arise if, for example, the internal stability situation worsens and the PLA is called in to suppress mass incidents, bringing it closer to the level of involvement in domestic politics in the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Additionally, changes in Chinas external security situation could drive future guns vs. butter debates between the Party and the PLA, particularly as the Party faces mounting social pressures and tighter budgets. For example, with Ma Ying-jeous election and reduced tensions between the Mainland and Taiwan, one could argue that the PLA has less immediate reason for the continued fast-paced acquisition of advanced equipment. If Chinas domestic problems become bad enough, it could provide impetus for the Party to decide that now is the time to cut back on expensive defense spending and invest in social services instead.

Lashout only temporary theyll reverse course Zakaria, 8 (Fareed, 4/12/8, Dont Feed Chinas Nationalism, World News, editor-at-large of Time Magazine, JPL)
So why doesn't the Chinese regime see this? Beijing has a particular problem. Now that communism is dead, the

Communist Party sees its legitimacy as linked to its role in promoting and defending Chinese nationalism. It is especially clumsy when it comes to such issues. Clever technocrats though they are, China's communist leaders mostly engineershave not had to refine their political skills as they have their economic touch. In the past they have stoked anti-Japanese and anti-American outbursts, only to panic that things were getting out of control and then reverse course. They fear that compromising over Tibet would set a precedent for the unraveling of the Chinese nation. China has grown and shrunk in size over the centuries, and its dynasties have often been judged by their
success in preserving the country's geography.

Lashout not related to domestic instability Newmyer, 7 (Jacqueline, 4/4/7, Domestic Instability and Chinese Foreign Policy, Real Clear Politics, president and chief executive officer of Long Term Strategy Group, postdoctoral fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvards John F. Kennedy School of Government, postdoctoral fellow at Harvards Olin Institute for Strategic Studies in 20042005, JPL)

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Recent history bears out the continuing relevance of this advice in China. Under Mao and Deng, as Iain Johnston argues, the PRC proved remarkably prone to escalate against other powers. In its first half-century, at moments of domestic tumult and

in periods of calm alike - from the end of the Civil War through the failure of the Great Leap Forward and the height of the Cultural Revolution to the relatively tranquil mid-1990s - the PRC launched unexpected military operations against the U.S., India, the Soviet Union, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The principal aim of each action was to secure a concrete gain or decisively defeat a foreign power. As Beijing continues to navigate domestic challenges, then, U.S. policy makers would be wise to keep in mind that internal disorder itself has not disposed the PRC to peace or triggered aggression. Rather, the PRC has tended to strike when a rival's guard is perceived to be down, offering an opportunity to inflict a devastating blow.

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No impact to instability regional influences check and empirics prove Rachman, 12 3/19 Gideon Rachman, chief foreign-affairs columnist at the Financial Times. A political crisis will not stop China,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8994cfc6-71b5-11e1-b853-00144feab49a.html#axzz1plphCbSK My book-shelves in London groan with titles such as Eclipse: Living In the Shadow of Chinas Economic Dominance and When China Rules the World. But travel to China itself, and you will find plenty of people who are sceptical about the notion that the country is a rising superpower. The sceptics are not just jaundiced western expats or frustrated Chinese liberals. Wen Jiabao, the countrys

prime minister, does a pretty good job of talking down the Chinese miracle. He has called the countrys economic growth unbalanced and unsustainable. Last week, he warned that if China does not push ahead with political reform, it is vulnerable to another cultural revolution that could sweep away its economic gains. Mr Wens comments were swiftly followed by the fall from grace of Bo Xilai, the controversial
Communist party boss in Chongqing. This outbreak of high-level political infighting has been seized upon by China-sceptics as further evidence that the countrys much-vaunted stability is a myth. So who is right? The people who think China is a rising superpower, or those who insist that it is a deeply unstable country? Oddly enough, they are both correct. It is clearly true that China has

enormous political and economic challenges ahead. Yet future instability is highly unlikely to derail the rise of China. Whatever the wishful thinking of some in the west, we are not suddenly going to wake up and discover that the Chinese miracle was, in fact, a mirage. My own scepticism about China is tempered by the knowledge that analysts in the west have been predicting the end of the Chinese boom almost since it began. In the mid-1990s, as the Asia editor of The Economist, I was perpetually running stories about the inherent instability of China
whether it was dire predictions about the fragility of the banking system, or reports of savage infighting at the top of the Communist party. In 2003, I purchased a much-acclaimed book, Gordon Changs, The Coming Collapse of China which predicted that the Chinese miracle had five years to run, at most. So now, when I read that Chinas banks are near collapse, that the countryside is in a ferment of unrest, that the cities are on the brink of environmental disaster and that the middle-classes are in revolt, I am tempted to yawn and turn the page. I really have heard it all before. Yet, it is equally hard to believe that either the Chinese economic or political systems can continue along the same lines indefinitely. Rapid, export-driven growth of 8-9 per cent a year is not sustainable

forever. And Chinas political system looks increasingly anachronistic, as demands for democracy spread around the world. Mr Wen was probably implying as much last week, when he said that the Arab peoples demand for
democracy must be respected and cannot be held back by any force. It is clearly true that China has very difficult political and economic transitions ahead. There are, however, encouraging precedents from the rest of Asia. South Korea and Taiwan have both moved from fairly brutal one-party states to functioning democracies and from lowcost manufacturing to high-tech consumerism. The sheer scale of China and its uniquely traumatic history will make the countrys political and economic transformation that much harder. In particular, if China were to move towards free elections, it would almost certainly see the rise of separatist movements in Tibet and Xinjiang. Given the depth of Chinese nationalism, it is unlikely that these would be treated with subtlety or sensitivity. As well as struggling to preserve the countrys territorial integrity, a more democratic China would find itself coping with all sorts of barely-suppressed social tensions particularly if it scraps restrictions on movement between the countryside and cities. Yet even if one envisages the very-worst case scenario the outbreak of a civil war that need not mean that China will fail to make it to superpower status. If you doubt it, consider the rise of the last emerging superpower to shake the world. The US fought a civil war in the 1860s and yet was the worlds largest economy by the 1880s. Or take Germany and Japan: countries that were defeated and devastated in a world war yet which swiftly resumed their positions among the worlds leading economies. What the US, Germany and Japan had in common is that they had discovered the formula for a successful industrial economy something that seems to be able to survive any amount of turmoil. After more than 30 years of rapid economic growth, it is clear that China too has mastered the formula. Some China sceptics prefer to compare the countrys rapid growth to that of the Soviet Union or to Japan in the 1980s. But the USSRs inefficiency was disguised because it never competed on world markets: China, by contrast, is already the worlds largest exporter. As for the Japanese bubble, that burst when the country was already far richer on a per-capita basis than China is now. The Chinese economy, because it is relatively poor, still has huge scope for modernisation. In politics, as in economics, Chinas weaknesses also hint at untapped potential. As last weeks infighting illustrated, the country is still burdened with an immature political system. If and when China achieves the fifth modernisation, as the dissident Wei Jingsheng once called democracy, it will

have surmounted the biggest remaining obstacle to superpower status.

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Chinese Democracy 1NC


CCP collapse causes Chinese democratization Gilley, 6, adjunct professor of international affairs @ New School U, 6 (Bruce, Foreign Policy, May/June, proquest)
Minxin Pei makes two claims in his analysis of present-day China. One is that China's political economy is much weaker than many suppose. The other is that the result of this weakness will not be democracy, but a protracted period of decay resulting in crisis and, presumably, a new form of authoritarianism or even anarchy. The first point is true. The second is doubtful. Pei amply documents the many problems within China's political and economic systems. One question raised by his analysis is whether these problems are any more severe than the challenges faced by other developing countries. Take one example: China ranks as an average performer for its income level on most of the World Bank Institute governance indicators. If China's problems are merely a question of being poor, then it argues in favor of the regime's claim that "economic development is the primary task." Ultimately, however, the most relevant

gauge of the severity of China's problems will not be found in number-crunching by social scientists or exhortations by Chinese Communist Party leaders, but in the opinions of China's citizens. Decay, in other words, is in the eyes of the governed. As Pei suggests, legitimacy in present-day China is probably quite high, both among elites and average people. In my own research on government legitimacy in 72 countries between 1998 and 2002, China ranked 13th overall, ahead of both Australia and Britain. Even assuming a modest decline since then, China's leaders still likely enjoy a high degree of legitimacy. An unstated assumption links Peis first claim to his second. It is
that either China's system of government will falter in delivering on its legitimacy-enhancing promises, or public opinion of the government's performance will turn negative. Pei seems to favor the former, believing that China's governance problems "will generate social tensions and mass alienation, thus eroding the party's base of support." I favor the latter. Either way, the result will be the same: a crisis of legitimacy. That brings us to Pei's second claim, that decay will not lead to democracy. One problem

with making such a prediction is that history has not provided a clear answer to the causes of democratization. It is impossible to examine reliably whether such factors are present or absent in today's China, or whether they will be in the future. But we do know that, one by one, authoritarian regimes have fallen for the past century and today constitute fewer than one third of all states. Some scholars, including Pei, attribute this trend to economics -- new business elites, class tensions, international capital flows. Yet these mechanisms may be the least important. Internal political decay, evolving social values, pluralism, and governance crises can loom much larger . History clearly shows that democracy is wanted by most people in most countries most of the time. China's own history is dotted with repeated pockets of pro-democracy agitation. Moral beliefs drive political outcomes, perhaps more than anything else. "The power of the powerless," to use Vaclav Havel's phrase, lies in the power of
beliefs. Once a society demands democracy, elites will step forward to support that demand. But don't expect to see elites making such moves until very late in the game.

Solves global wars Jin 9 (Chin, 5/28/9, Time for a democratic China, M.A. graduate of the University of Western Sydney and Chair of the Federation For A
Democratic China, Australia, JPL)

It is essential for the Chinese democratic movement, the Free Tibet movement, democratic Taiwan and all forces of justice, liberty and democracy in the rest of the world to co-operate sincerely and effectively, to form a robust political alliance to restrain the global expansion of the Communist China. It is crucial for international society to realise that only by supporting and accelerating Chinas democratisation and promoting its political reform can the situation of China be changed to improve global peace and stability. We expect that in the near future, that is, around the 100th anniversary of the Revolution of 1911, China, the land which has endured under communism, will have a democratic and federated new China. Perhaps a new historical chapter is to be initiated here. Chinese history and world history will be written by our generation. Only if China changes from insulation to openness, autocracy to democracy, will the future world be secure and peaceful.

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CCP collapse causes democracy- history proves MacFarquhar, 6, professor of history and political science @ Harvard, 6 (Roderick, Foreign Policy, May/June, Proquest)
In the Maoist era, that system was held together by an undisputed leader, a well-disciplined and relatively uncorrupt party, and a doctrine (Marxism-Leninism-Maoism) that gave the Communists the authority to impose Mao Zedong's policies. Underpinning the

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whole system were the soldiers of the People's Liberation Army. But, selflessness, and confidence were undermined by the assaults it suffered during the Cultural Revolution. Afterward, its doctrine was effectively abandoned as part of Deng Xiaoping's reform program. As a result, in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the party proved to be politically impotent and the military had to save the day. Today, China is far richer and the party is co-opting potential opponents, but as Pei shows, corruption is greater, contempt for legal processes is widespread, and the willingness of China's citizens to protest is increasing every day. Nobody believes that President Hu Jintao could play the role of imperial ruler to hold the system together. What could turn this "decaying" system in a more hopeful direction? The history of China's 150-year struggle with modernity suggests it may require a major shock to the ruling establishment . This first happened in the war of 189495, when Japan defeated China. Although the Qing dynasty had suffered defeats to the British and the French earlier in the
same century, the Japanese victory was far more traumatic because Beijing thought of its island neighbors as junior partners in the great enterprise of Chinese civilization. In victory, Japan was different. It was a European-style nation state that had proved itself superior to China. The effect of this defeat was dramatic. China's leaders adopted radical reforms, Confucianism was abandoned as the state doctrine, and, in 1912, the 2,000-year-old imperial system was replaced by a republic. It was the first great revolution of the 20th century.

China Demo Good Demo


Chinese democracy key to global democracy Friedman, 9, professor of political science @ Wisconsin, 9 (Edward, Dissent, Volume 56, No. 1, Winter, Muse)
Democracy-promoter Larry Diamond concludes in his recent book The Spirit of Democracy that democracy

is in trouble across the world because of the rise of China, an authoritarian superpower that has the economic clout to back and bail out authoritarian regimes around the globe. Singapore . . . could foreshadow a resilient form of capitalist-authoritarianism by China, Vietnam, and elsewhere in Asia, which delivers
booming development, political stability, low levels of corruption, affordable housing, and a secure pension system. Joined by ever richer and more influential petro powers leveraging the enormous wealth of Sovereign Investment Funds, Asia will determine the fate of democracy, at least in the foreseeable future. Authoritarian China, joined by its authoritarian friends, is well on the way to defeating the global forces of democracy.

Backslide of democracy causes global war Marshall, 9 (Andrew, 8/19/9, Global War and Dying Democracy: The Revolution of the Elites, Global Power and Global Government: Part 5, Global Research Centre for Research on Globalization, graduate degree in economics from the University of Chicago, director of the United States Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment, former U.S. Secretary of Defense, JPL) **Gender modified
Global trends in political economy suggest that democracy as we know it, is a fading concept, where even Western industrialized nations are retreating from the system. Arguably, through party politics and financialcorporate interests, democracy is something of a faade as it is. However, we are entering into an era in which even the institutions and image of democracy are in retreat, and the slide into totalitarianism seems inevitable . The National Intelligence Council report, Global Trends 2025, stated that many governments will be expanding domestic security forces, surveillance capabilities, and the employment of special operations-type forces. Counterterrorism measures will increasingly involve urban operations as a result of greater urbanization, and governments
may increasingly erect barricades and fences around their territories to inhibit access. Gated communities will continue to spring up within many societies as elites seek to insulate themselves from domestic threats.[1] Essentially, expect a continued move towards and internationalization of domestic police state measures to control populations . The nature of totalitarianism is such that it is, by nature (or rather by definition), a global project that cannot be fully accomplished in just one community or one country. Being fuelled by the need to suppress any alternative orders and ideas, it has no natural limits and is bound to aim at totally dominating everything and everyone. David Lyon explained in Theorizing Surveillance, that, The ultimate feature of the totalitarian domination is the absence of exit, which can be achieved temporarily by closing borders, but permanently only by a truly global reach that would render the very notion of exit meaningless. This in itself justifies questions about the totalitarian potential of globalization. The author raises the important question, Is abolition of borders intrinsically (morally) good, because they symbolize barriers that needlessly separate and exclude people, or are they potential lines of resistance, refuge and difference that may save us from the totalitarian abyss? Further, if globalization undermines the tested, state-based models of democracy, the world may be vulnerable to a global totalitarian etatization.[2] Russia Today, a major Russian media source, published an article by the Strategic Cultural Fund, in which it stated that, the current crisis is being used as a mechanism for provoking some deepening social upheavals that would make humankind plunged as it is already into chaos and frightened by the ghost of an all-out violence urge of its own free will that a supranational arbitrator with dictatorial powers intervene into the world affairs. The author pointed out that, The events are following the

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same path as the Great Depression in 1929-1933: a financial crisis, an economic recession, social conflicts, establishing
totalitarian dictatorships, inciting a war to concentrate power, and capital in the hands of a narrow circle. However, as the author noted, this time around, its different, as this is the final stage in the global control strategy, where a decisive blow should be dealt to the national state sovereignty institution, followed by a transition to a system of private power of transnational elites. The author explained that a global police state is forming, as Intelligence activities, trade of war, penitentiary system, and information control are passing into private hands. This is done through so-called outsourcing, a relatively new business phenomenon that consists of trusting certain functions to private firms that act as contractors and relying on individuals outside an organization to solve its internal tasks. Further, the biggest achievements have been made over the last few years in the area of establishing electronic control over peoples identities, carried out under the pretext of counterterrorism. Currently, the FBI is creating the worlds biggest database of biometric indexes (fingerprints, retina scans, face shapes, scar shapes and allocation, speech and gesture patterns, etc.) that now contains 55 million fingerprints.[3] Global War Further, the prospects of war are increasing with the deepening of the economic crisis. It must be noted that historically, as empires are in decline, international violence increases. The scope of a global depression and the undertaking of restructuring the entire global political economy may also require and produce a global war to serve as a catalyst for formation of the New World Order. The National Intelligence Council document, Global Trends 2025, stated that there is a likely increase in the risk of a nuclear war, or in the very least, the use of a nuclear weapon by 2025, as, Ongoing low-intensity clashes between India and Pakistan continue to raise the specter that such events could escalate to a broader conflict between those nuclear powers.[4] The report also predicts a resurgence of mercantilist foreign policies of the great powers in competition for resources, which could lead to interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources to be essential to maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime. In particular, Central Asia has become an area of intense international competition for access to energy.[5] Further, Sub-Saharan Africa will remain the most vulnerable region on Earth in terms of economic challenges, population stresses, civil conflict, and political instability. The weakness of states and troubled relations between states and societies probably will slow major improvements in the regions prospects over the next 20 years unless there is sustained international engagement and, at times, intervention. Southern Africa will continue to be the most stable and promising sub-region politically and economically. This seems to suggest that there will be many more cases of humanitarian intervention, likely under the auspices of a Western dominated international organization, such as the UN. There will also be a democratic backslide in the most populous African countries, and that, the region will be vulnerable to civil conflict and complex forms of interstate conflictwith militaries fragmented along ethnic or other divides, limited control of border areas, and insurgents and criminal groups preying on unarmed civilians in neighboring countries. Central Africa contains the most troubling of these cases, including Congo-Kinshasa, Congo-Brazzaville, Central African Republic, and Chad.[6]

China Demo Good US Relations


Democratic china key to us-china relations and maintaining East Asian security Ting 4 (Henry, retired professor, pg. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FL01Ad02.html)
In order to have a friendly China in that strategic region of Asia, the United States needs to have a government in Beijing advocating a free society and democratic political system. That's the kind of government the US wants and needs to deal with. With a democratic China on the other side of Pacific Ocean, America's strategy to maintain security and expand commercial interests would be greatly enhanced .
And it is not an impossible mission to ask the communist government to loosen its grip of absolute power over the Chinese people, when already Beijing's communist leaders are becoming more moderate with each generation. With the added pressure of calls from Hong Kong and Taiwan for justice and democracy, direct suffrage for all Chinese people should not be unattainable in the foreseeable future. If the current US administration could make good use of its special Taiwan leverage to coordinate a successful package of an authentic "one China" policy with a democratic and market-valued system in China, then a unified Taiwan and China would become the best ally for the US in terms of protecting human rights and curbing or halting nuclear weapon proliferation. A democratic China would be transformed from a strategic competitor to a friendly partner .

US-China relations are comparatively the most important for solving every existential threat Cohen and Greenberg 9 (William S. Cohen is chairman and CEO of The Cohen Group, a strategic business consulting firm based
in Washington, D.C. Secretary Cohen served as U.S. secretary of defense, Maurice R. Greenberg is chairman and CEO of C.V. Starr & Co., Inc. Mr. Greenberg retired four years ago as chairman and CEO of American International Group (AIG) after more than 40 years of leadership, creating the largest insurance company in history, Smart Power in U.S.-China Relations, pg online @ http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090309_mcgiffert_uschinasmartpower_web.pdf //ef) The evolution of Sino-U.S. relations over the next months, years, and decades has the potential to have a greater impact on global security and prosperity than any other bilateral or multilateral arrangement. In this sense, many analysts consider the US.-China diplomatic relationship to be the most influential in the world. Without question,

strong and stable U.S. alliances provide the foundation for the protection and promotion of U.S. and global interests. Yet within that broad framework, the trajectory of U.S.-China relations will determine the success, or failure, of efforts to address the toughest global challenges: global financial stability, energy security and climate change, nonproliferation, and terrorism, among other pressing issues. Shepherding that trajectory in the most constructive direction possible must therefore be a priority for Washington and Beijing. Virtually no major global challenge can be met without U.S.-China

Valley High School Langel cooperation. The uncertainty of that future trajectory and the "strategic mistrust" between leaders in Washington and Beijing

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necessarily concerns many experts and policymakers in both countries. Although some U.S. analysts see China as a strategic competitor deliberately vying with the United States for energy resources, military superiority, and international political influence alike analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has generally found that China uses its soft power to pursue its own, largely economic, international agenda primarily to achieve its domestic objectives of economic growth and social stability.1 Although Beijing certainly has an eye on Washington, not all of its actions are undertaken as a counterpoint to the United States. In addition, CSIS research suggests that growing Chinese soft power in developing countries may have influenced recent U.S. decisions to engage more actively and reinvest in soft-power tools that have atrophied during the past decade. To the extent that there exists a competition between the United States and China, therefore, it may be mobilizing both countries to strengthen their ability to solve global problems. To be sure, U.S. and Chinese policy decisions toward the respective other power will be

determined in large part by the choices that leaders make about their own nations interests at home and overseas, which in turn are shaped by their respective domestic contexts. Both parties must recognizeand acceptthat the other will pursue a foreign policy approach that is in its own national interest. Yet, in a globalized world, challenges are increasingly transnational, and so too must be their solutions. As demonstrated by the rapid spread of SARS from China in 2003, pandemic flu can be spread rapidly through air and via international travel. Dust particulates from Asia settle in Lake Tahoe. An economic downturn in one country can and does trigger an economic slowdown in another. These challenges can no longer be addressed by either containment or isolation. What constitutes the national interest today necessarily encompasses a broader and more complex set of considerations than it did in the past As a general principle, the United States seeks to promote its national interest while it
simultaneously pursues what the CSIS Commission on Smart Power called in its November 2007 report the "global good."3 This approach is not always practical or achievable, of course. But neither is it pure benevolence. Instead, a strategic pursuit of the

global good accrues concrete benefits for the United States (and others) in the form of building confidence, legitimacy, and political influence in key countries and regions around the world in ways that
enable the United States to better confront global and transnational challenges. In short, the global good comprises those things that all people and governments want but have traditionally not been able to attain in the absence of U.S. leadership. Despite historical, cultural, and political differences between the United States and China, Beijing's newfound ability, owing to its recent economic successes, to contribute to the global good is a matter for common ground between the two countries. Today there is increasing recognition that no

major global challenge can be addressed effectively, much less resolved, without the active engagement ofand cooperation betweenthe United States and China.

Asian conflict is the most probable scenario for global nuclear war Dibb 1 (Paul, Prof Australian National University, Strategic Trends: Asia at a Crossroads, Naval War College Review, Winter,
http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2001/Winter/art2-w01.htm) The areas of maximum danger and instability in the world today are in Asia, followed by the Middle East and parts of the former Soviet Union. The strategic situation in Asia is more uncertain and potentially threatening than anywhere in Europe. Unlike in Europe, it is possible to envisage war in Asia involving the major powers: remnants of Cold War ideological confrontation still exist across the Taiwan Straits and on the Korean Peninsula; India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and these two countries are more confrontational than at any time since the early 1970s; in Southeast Asia, Indonesiawhich is the worlds fourth-largest countryfaces a highly uncertain future that could lead to its breakup. The Asia-Pacific region spends more on defense (about $150 billion a year) than any other part of the world except the United States and Nato Europe. China and Japan are amongst the top four or five global military spenders. Asia also has more nuclear powers than any other region of the world. Asias security is at a

crossroads: the region could go in the direction of peace and cooperation, or it could slide into confrontation and military conflict. There are positive tendencies, including the resurgence of economic growth and the
spread of democracy, which would encourage an optimistic view. But there are a number of negative tendencies that must be of serious concern. There are deep-seated historical, territorial, ideological, and religious differences in Asia. Also, the region has no history of successful multilateral security cooperation or arms control. Such multilateral institutions as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the ASEAN Regional Forum have shown themselves to be ineffective when confronted with major crises.

China Demo Good Checks Lashout


Transition towards democratic trends prevents their lashout impacts Hyde 2 (Henry, 3/8/2, The U.S., China, and the Future of East Asia Lecture, former chair of the House International Relations Committee,
M.D. from Georgetown University, JPL) As for East Asia, the stakes posed

by China's rapid development could not be higher. The peaceful, prosperous, and benevolent system the U.S. has created and sustained for over half a century, that network of uncoerced relationships that forms the foundation for the region's embrace of the modern world and the betterment of the lives of hundreds of millions of its people, could be torn apart by a powerful China bent on domination. But instead of assaulting it, a democratic China would very likely seek to join that system, for it

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represents an open door to a new world, one which can guarantee that China's miraculous transformation will continue and allow the Chinese people to assume their rightful place among the free nations of the world.

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CCP collapse eliminates their ability to order another Tiananmen massacre Chan 9 (John, 2/19/9, Chinese President Demands Army Loyalty Amid Growing Social Discontent, Combatant Craft Platoon Officer in
Charge at US Navy, Surface Warfare Officer at United States Navy, JPL) Today, the loyalty of soldiers is even more doubtful. In 1989, people

in the countryside remained largely passive toward the urban upheavals. This is unimaginable today. Not only has the social divide deepened in rural areas, but the flood of immigrants into the cities over the past two decades has created innumerable ties between urban factory workers and the rural population. Protests of injustices in the cities now threaten to reverberate in the countrysideand vice versa. These profound social changes also echo inside the PLA. Many soldiers come from poor rural backgrounds but also have ties to the cities. Young soldiers are
bound to have brothers, sisters or girlfriends among the millions of migrant workers being brutally exploited as cheap labour. All of these processes have undermined the CCP's ability to order another Tiananmen Square massacre .

New abuses collapse human rights globally Roth 9 (Ken, executive director of Human Rights Watch, pg. http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2009/02/12/letter-us-secretary-state-hillaryclinton) But the

advancement of human rights in, and with, China is arguably more central to US interests than ever before. Press censorship in China makes it possible for toxic food and public health crises to spread globally. Suppression of dissent removes internal checks against environmental damage that has global impact. Abuses of low-wage labor implicate international firms operating inside China and compromise goods that come into the US. The government's control of mass media and the internet allow it to stoke nationalist anger against the United States in moments of crisis. The export from China of internet-censoring technologies and its provision of unconditional aid to repressive regimes increases the US's burdens in fighting censorship and human rights crises worldwide.

Chinese human rights key to solve diseases that threaten extinction Wenxun 9 (Tong, 1/28/9, Hiding Chinas Bird Flu Outbreak May Lead to Global Catastrophe, reporter for International Federation for
Justice in China, JPL)

Without the necessary information, even the most advanced medical equipment and sophisticated system can do little to control the spread of the disease. By covering up relevant information, the Chinese communist regime is not only harming the Chinese people, but also endangering the entire human race. H5N1 is another major reason why everyone in the free world has the obligation and the right to demand more freedom and human rights in China.

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Disease spread will cause extinction Leather, 11 10/12/11 (Tony, The Inevitable Pandemic http://healthmad.com/conditions-and-diseases/the-inevitable-pandemic/, PZ)
You will have pictured this

possible scenario many times, living in a country where people are suddenly dropping like flies because of some mystery virus. Hospitals full to overflowing, patients laid out in corridors, because of lack of room, health services frustrated, because they just cant cope. You feel panic with no way of knowing who will be the next victim, intimate personal contact with anyone the death of you, quite possibly. This is no scene from a movie, or even a daydream, but UK reality in 1998, when the worst influenza epidemic in living memory swept savagely across the country. Whilst this was just one epidemic in one country, how terrifying is the idea that a global pandemic would see this horror story repeated many times over around the globe, death toll numbers in the millions. Humanity is outnumbered many fold by bacteria and viruses, the deadliest of all killers among these microscopic organisms. Death due to disease is a threat we all live with daily, trusting medical science combat it, but the fact is, frighteningly, that we have yet to experience the

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inevitable pandemic that might conceivably push humanity to the edge of extinction because so many of us become victims. Devastating viral diseases are nothing new. Bubonic plague killed almost half all Roman Empire citizens in542AD. Europe lost three quarters of the population to the Black Death in 1334. One fifth of Londoners succumbed to the 1665 Great Plague, and Russia was the site of the first official influenza pandemic, in 1729, which quickly spread to Europe and America, at the costs of many thousands of lives. Another epidemic of so-called Russian flu, originating in 1889 in central Asia spreading rapidly around the world, European death toll alone 250,000 people. In 1918 so-called Spanish Influenza killed 40million people worldwide, another strain originating Hong Kong in 1969 killed off 700,000, a 1989 UK epidemic killing 29,000. Small numbers, granted, as compared to the world population of seven billion, but the truth is that, should a true world pandemic occur, western governments will of course want to save their own people first, potentially globally disastrous. World Health Organisation laboratories worldwide constantly monitor and record new strains
of virus, ensuring drug companies maintain stockpiles against most virulent strains known, maintaining a fighting chance of coping with new pandemics. They do theoretical models of likely effects of new pandemics, their predictions making chilling reading. Put into perspective, during a pandemic, tanker loads of antiviral agents, which simply do not exist would be needed so prioritizing vaccination recipients would be inevitable. Such a pandemic would, in UK alone, be at least 10 times deadlier than previously experienced, likely number of dead in first two months 72,000 in London alone. Any new virus would need a

three to six month wait for effective vaccine, so the devastation on a global scale, flu virus notoriously indifferent to international borders, would be truly colossal. Our knowledge of history should be pointing the way to prepare for that living nightmare of the next, inevitable world pandemic. The microscopic villains of these scenarios have inhabited this planet far longer than we have, and they too evolve. It would be comforting to think that humanity was genuinely ready, though it seems doubtful at best.

Disease outweighs nuclear war Dalton 1 (Alastair, journalist, Deadly Virus Will Destroy Life on Earth, THE SCOTSMAN, October 17, 2001, LN.)
HUMANS will have to move to other planets to survive a biological catastrophe that will hit the Earth within the next 1,000 years, Professor Stephen Hawking warned yesterday. The world's most famous physicist said he was more worried about a virus than nuclear weapons destroying life and said future generations would have to face living in space. Prof Hawking said he was optimistic life would continue, but warned the danger of extinction remained because of man's aggressive nature. Other leading scientists agreed that humans would have to take action to avoid being wiped out like previous dominant Earth species, such as the dinosaurs, but said there was no need for any immediate panic.

Human Rights Good


Failure to protect human rights makes extinction inevitable Human Rights Web, 94 (An Introduction to the Human Rights Movement Created on July 20, 1994 / Last edited on January 25,
1997, http://www.hrweb.org/intro.html) The United Nations Charter, Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and UN Human Rights convenants were written and implemented in the aftermath of the Holocaust, revelations coming from the Nuremberg war crimes trials, the Bataan Death March, the atomic bomb, and other horrors smaller in magnitude but not in impact on the individuals they affected. A whole lot of people in a number of countries had a crisis of conscience and found they could no longer look the other way while tyrants jailed, tortured, and killed their neighbors. Many also realized that advances in technology and changes in social structures had rendered war a threat to the continued existence of the human race. Large numbers of people in many countries lived under the control of tyrants, having no recourse but war to relieve often intolerable living conditions. Unless some way was found to relieve

the lot of these people, they could revolt and become the catalyst for another wide-scale and possibly nuclear war. For perhaps the first time, representatives from the majority of governments in the world came to the conclusion that basic human rights must be protected, not only for the sake of the individuals and countries involved, but to preserve the human race.