行业研究华创证券周铮化学制品行业：终端渠道决定规模扩张，"马太效应"成就行业龙头 20121127

[table_main]
2012 11 27
[table_research]

S0360110120073
Tel 010-59370839
Email zhouzheng@hczq.com
1.
2.
(002588)
(002470)
3.
4.
5.
( 12 )
2011-11-152012-11-15
-6%
-12%
-18%
-24%
-30%
11-11
12-8
[table_relation]
(002470)
2011-12-29
(002470)
12-2 12-5
300
2012-04-24
(002470)
2012-08-14
(002588)
2012-05-08
(002588)
2012-07-31
(002588)
20091210
2012-03-06

....................................... 5
................................................................................... 5
....................................................................... 5
....................................................................................... 6
........................................................... 7
............................................................................................... 8
............................................................... 8
................................... 8
................................. 10
................................................. 12
1 ....................................................................... 12
2 ............................................................................................... 13
....................................................................... 14
................................................. 14
............................................................................. 15
................................................................. 18
..................................................................................... 19
......................................... 19
1 ........................................................................... 19
2 ................................................................................................... 21
3 ....................................................... 21
............................................................................. 21
1............................................................................................................................... 22
2............................................................................................................................... 23
3............................................................................................................................... 24
4............................................................................................................................... 26
..................................................................................... 29
................................................................................................. 29
1........................................................................................................................... 29
2....................................................................................................................... 29
3........................................................................................................................... 30
4....................................................................................................................... 30
5....................................................................................................................... 31
............................................. 31
1 ....................................................................... 31
2 ....................................................... 32
3 ....................................... 32
4 ....................................................... 33
5 ................................................................................... 34
6 ............................... 35
7 ....................................... 36
................................................................................................................................. 36
20091210
2 / 38
1. .......................................................................................... 5
2. .......................................................................................................... 5
3. .......................................... 6
4./ ................................................. 7
5. .............................................. 8
6./ ............................. 9
7.kg/hm2 .................................................................................. 9
8. ................................................................ 10
9. ................................................................................ 10
10. ...................................................................................................... 11
11. BB ................................................................................... 11
12. ...................... 12
13 ............................................................. 12
14 ............................................................................. 13
15 .............................................. 13
16. .......................................................................................................... 14
17.A .................................................................................. 14
18.2011 ..................................................... 15
19. .............................................. 16
20. .............................................................................. 16
21. .............................................................................. 17
22. .............................................. 17
23. .............................................................................. 18
24. 2010 .................................... 18
25.2011 ..................................................................................... 19
26. .................................................. 19
27./ ..................................................... 20
28. ROE ........................................................................................ 20
29. ...................................................................................................... 21
30. .......................................................................................... 23
31. 3 ...................................................................................... 24
32. ...................................................................... 25
33. .............................................................. 25
34. .......................................................................................................... 27
35. .......................................................................................... 28
36. ...................................................................... 30
37. .................................................................................................. 30
38. .................................................. 31
39.2012
40.2011 .. 32
41./ ......................................................... 32
42.2011 ..................................... 33
43./ ................................................. 33
44. .......................................................................... 34
20091210
3 / 38
45. .................................. 35
46. ...... 35
47. ...................................................................................... 36
20091210
4 / 38
1.
40.8% 46.1% 17.9%
2.
20091210
5 / 38
3.
BB
20091210
6 / 38
2010
YARA 40% 2011
5%
4./
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
60%
Jan-09
Jan-10
95%
Jan-11
Jan-12
45%[CL]
20091210
7 / 38
90 2000
2010 10 22.14% 32.44% 917.87
1798.5 95.94%2010 32.44%
50% 80%
5.
6000
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
5000
4000
3000
2000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1000
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
2020
14.5
20091210
8 / 38
6./
5,500
6,000
6,000
y = 2.504x - 6921
R= 0.956
5,500
5,000
5,000
4,500
4,500
4,000
3,500
4,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,500
3,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
3,000
1,000
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
()
1.2-2.6
7.kg/hm2
P2O5
K2O
150
60
90
160
75
55
160
55
75
23
53
63
110
50
70
60
180
90
150
60
90
120
60
75
300
100
300
75
75
225
180
90
180
320
160
280
305
170
390
20091210
9 / 38
8.
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2015 6610
2010 5.37% 2015 40%
2644 2010 47.01%
9.
2010
2015
6273
6610
4086
4350
P2O5
1475
1490
K2O
712
770
30%
16%-22% 50% 52%
68%
20091210
10 / 38
10.
0.68
0.70
0.52
>0.50
0.60
0.50
<0.30
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
2005
1-2
1.7 1.1 1.0

920
BB
BB
BB
BB
11. BB
BB
20091210
11 / 38
12.
2500
2230
2263
2297
2303
2320
2335
2341
2019
2000
1500
1304
1386
1503
1609
1723
1844
1000
500
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1
60
2002
13
20091210
12 / 38
14
15
16%
14%
12%
CPI
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
20091210
13 / 38
CPI
3-5
2014 2017
10%
16.
17.A
20091210
14 / 38
2010
4400 2 5
() 32,184
29
2006
20%2011 31.5%
100 40
18.2011
5.09%
4.07%
4.00%
3.56%
3.13%
2.60%
2.33%
2.29%
2.24%
2.20%

0.1-0.15 0.5
0.05-0.1 2010
YARA 17%
40% ACRON7.3% BASF6.3%
SACF 6.3%
3
1
2
500
3
20091210
15 / 38
3 3
1
19.
2008
2009
2010
2011
3704
4074
4453
6147
1429
1806
2065
2328
1278
1405
1546
1623
2565
2361
2065
2080
620
682
754
1051
367
464
530
637
130
143
157
176
661
667
494
557
2-3
20.
2011
2012 E
2013 E
120
120
120
2013 2011 60
60
120
120
60
90
60
30
30
30
120
30
2013 2011 120

60
30
30
2013 2011 30
10
10
10
2012
30
2013 2011 30
30
10
10
20091210
16 / 38

10
2012
30
2013 2011 30
10
10
270
240
2013 2011 30
180
180
90 ,120
60
120
30
10
210
90
21.
2011
2012 E
2013 E
125
125
125
28
28
48
50
50
60
18
18
18
2013 2011 20
2013 2011 10
2013 2011 80
80
2013 2011 80
80
2013 2011 80
80
221
221
2013 2011 270
491
1050 1-5
6.82%
22.
80%
72.89%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
34.70%
28.18%
32.58%
20%
6.82%
10%
0%
1-5
20091210
17 / 38
2015
300-400
500
23.
24. 2010
250
231.7
216.4
200
139.9
150
98.3 95.6
100
97.1
93.1
85.1
65.27
51.1
48.1
50
42
21.6
0

4
2011
1162.8 70.9%
20091210
18 / 38
25.2011
26.
20091210
19 / 38
ROE
ROE
27./
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012H
28. ROE
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012H
20091210
20 / 38
29.
10-30
20091210
21 / 38
ISO9001-2000
100%2003
ISO9001-2000 2009
AAA
+
+
13
100

50%
2011
09
18-18-18
20091210
22 / 38
2011 50 7
30.
50KG/ 180-210
10-15 200-300
20 400 8-10
150 -200 /
20091210
23 / 38
7
3
80
100 / 8 2 80
300
3
22 5-8 1-2
700
1350 1100
31. 3
1392
1392
1387
1390
1388
1386
1384
1380
1382
1380
1378
1376
1374
2010
2011
2012
1000
2000 4000
170
200-300
20091210
24 / 38
32.
1100
27% 50%
90%
11 2012
33.
2011
2011
2012
260
150
310
106%
210
100
210
110%
205
110
305
177%
178
70
210
200%
175
110
160
46%
390
190
230
21%
186
106
190
79%
50
70
178
107
315
194%
10
240
150
220
47%
11
230
150
180
20%
20091210
25 / 38
2320
1243
2400
93%
1800
4
T
5
10
2 7
17 22
10
1/3
20091210
26 / 38
34.
260 /
GPS
2003
20091210
27 / 38
AAA 2007
2010 5
2009 12 31
14.27
35.
20091210
28 / 38
4 24 002470
2
160 120 2014
200-400 /
20%
20091210
29 / 38
600
3
53 30 25 15
36.
32 50 25
20
4
37.
IPO
20091210
30 / 38
1/3 1/3
150~200 /
400-500
A
5
1
38.
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
20091210
31 / 38
39.2012
40.2011
1400
0.30
1228
1200
0.25
1000
0.20
800
697
0.24
0.25
0.23
0.19
0.15
600
400
428
371
0.10
186
200
0.05
0.00
41./
3500
3300
3100
2900
-(45%[CL]15-15-15)
-(45%[CL]15-15-15)
-
(45%[CL]15-15-15)
-(45%[CL]15-15-15)
2700
2500
2300
-(45%[CL]15-15-15)
-(45%[CL]15-15-15)
-(45%[CL]15-15-15)
20091210
32 / 38
42.2011
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
43./
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
20091210
33 / 38
44.
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2009
18-18-18
2011 50 7
7 20 1/3
60 2013 60
120
60
30%-40% 5%
50%
20091210
34 / 38
3000
100
250 / 1000 /
3000 / 45% 3400 /
45.
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2007
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
46.
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
20091210
35 / 38
7
5 7 5
47.
30 >29 >20 =20 >

16
2012-2013 EPS 1.70 2.25 PE 16

12
2012-2013 EPS 0.78 1.00 PE 17
13
20091210
36 / 38
010-66500808
yangxiaohao@hczq.com
010-66500807
liuxuan@hczq.com
010-66500836
shizhaofei@hczq.com
010-66500810
wengbo@hczq.com
010-66500809
zhaoyifan@hczq.com
010-66500838
zhou.vivian@yahoo.com
0755-82027736
litao@hczq.com
0755-82828570
zhangjuan@hczq.com
0755-83715429
konglingyao@hczq.com
0755-83711905
songweiying@hczq.com
0755-88283119
wangliyan@hczq.com
0755-88283039
diaojiannan@hczq.com
021-50589152
weiyuanhong@hczq.com
021-50111907
wangweichang@hczq.com
021-50589862
liyinyin@hczq.com
021-50581878
wuliping@hczq.com
021-50157561
yanzongfei@hczq.com
20091210
37 / 38
( 300)
620%
610%20%
6 -10%10%
610%20%
3-65%
3-6-5%5%
3-65%
26
4001
C 3A
6 A
450
22 A
100033
518038
200122
010-66500801
0755-82027731
021-50583558

行业研究华创证券周铮化学制品行业：终端渠道决定规模扩张，"马太效应"成就行业龙头 20121127

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行业研究华创证券周铮化学制品行业：终端渠道决定规模扩张，"马太效应"成就行业龙头 20121127

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[table_main]

40.8% 46.1% 17.9%

1.7 1.1 1.0

2013 2011 120

2013 2011 270

30 >29 >20 =20 >

2012-2013 EPS 1.70 2.25 PE 16

You might also like

行业研究 华创证券 周铮 化学制品行业：终端渠道决定规模扩张，"马太效应"成就行业龙头 20121127

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行业研究 华创证券 周铮 化学制品行业：终端渠道决定规模扩张，"马太效应"成就行业龙头 20121127

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Copyright:

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[table_main]

40.8% 46.1% 17.9%

1.7 1.1 1.0

2013 2011 120

2013 2011 270

30 >29 >20 =20 >

2012-2013 EPS 1.70 2.25 PE 16

You might also like

行业研究华创证券周铮化学制品行业：终端渠道决定规模扩张，"马太效应"成就行业龙头 20121127

行业研究华创证券周铮化学制品行业：终端渠道决定规模扩张，"马太效应"成就行业龙头 20121127