Professional Documents
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The Round Up
13 August 2009
Issue No. 154
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrants
team providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas for
warrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action Scoreboard
Aussie Market Action SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
BHP (BHPVZE/BHPVZV) Trading Update – Key points from result
SUN (SUNKZM) MINI Trading Buy – Value in insurance
SLF (SLFSZX) Self Funding Investment – property sector
Round Up Corner XJOKZT – Rollover options
Equities
Commodities
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
US stocks rose, Dow +120pts, rebounding from the markets biggest fall in a month, after the Fed Reserve said the recession is easing
and analysts raised their outlook for insurers. Treasuries also slipped at the long end of the curve as the central bank said it will slow
purchases as the economy levels out.
Fed Reserve - The Fed Reserve has maintained their benchmark rate at between zero and 0.25 percent, and said it will stay
"exceptionally low" for an "extended period". The Fed also said it plans to slow its pace of its $300bn program to buy US bonds, with
the full amount to be purchased by October, and commented that it sees the economy as "levelling out".
Eco - The US Trade Defecit widened less than forecast in June, -$27bn vs -$28.7bn exp'd, reflecting a second consecutive gain in
exports spurred by a pickup in world econmies. A Confidence Surevey by Bloomberg surged to a 22-month high in August on signs the
recession is turning, although the volatile weekly Mortgage Appl'ns slipped 3.5% to Aug 8.
Insurers - Travelers Co, the New York insurer of cars, boats and businesses, added 3.3%, leading insurers higher after its credit
outlook was lifted by S&P to "positve". Allstate Corp jumped 6.4% after an upgrade to 'buy' by one broker on speculation the rally in
capital markets will boost its investment holdings.
Homebuilders - Toll Brothers, the biggest US luxury homebuilder, gained 14% after sales topped anlysts forecasts. Toll Bros said 3Q
revenue fell less than predicted as the cancellation rate declined to the lowest level since the housing slump started in 2006.
Retail - Macy's Inc climbed 5% after lifting its full-year profit forecast and posting 2Q earnings that beat analyst estimates as it
benefited from efforts to streamline its structure.
UK Banks - The BoE sounded a dovish tone in its quarterly inflation report giving the sector support. Lloyds rose 6.5% after saying it
would sell the bulk of its Insight Investment unit to Bank of New York Mellon for £235mn. RBS, Standard Chartered and Barclays
added between 0.2% and 5.4%.
Euro Banks - UBS climbed 3.1% after news that the Swiss bank had provisionally settled its long-running tax dispute with the US
government. Deutsche Bank rose 0.7%, Commerzbank added 3%, BNP was up 2.7% and UniCredit ended 2.1% higher.
Eco - British unemployment hit its highest rate since 1996 in the three months to June. The unemployment rate was 7.8% vs 7.7%
expected and up from 7.6% previously. Jobless claims rose broadly as expected in July.
Insurers - ING, up 2.35%, returned to profit but fell short of expectations as high loan loss provisions took a toll. Aegon added 3%
ahead of its results tonight but Fortis fell 1%. In the UK, RSA Insurance and Standard Life both fell as they traded ex div.
Resources Commentary
Miners - Base metals climbed giving the sector a boost whilst BHP climbed 1.8% after the world's largest miner reported with the CEO
giving a cautiously optimistic outlook for commodities demand. Rio added 0.3%, Anglo rose 0.5%, Xstrata was up 2.8% and Vedanta
ended 0.1% higher.
Energy - Crude climbed giving a boost to the majors. Shell was 2.3% higher, BG Group surged 4.9%, Tullow added 2.5% and BP
climbed 0.75% even after going ex div. In Europe
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded down 13pts or 0.3% to 4297. Open at 4262 with a low of 4255 and a high of 4317. Volume 34,276. Overnight the SPI
traded up 50pts to 4347.
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS
Upcoming Dividends
Source: IRESS
Technically, since hitting $20 in 2008 BHP has formed an uptrending channel and has recently traded to the top end of
the channel and retraced. A worse than expected result could see the stock trade back down to the bottom end of its
trading range near $32, while a better than expected result could see the stock crack through $40.
Source: IRESS
Technicals
Source: IRESS
The chart above shows SLF over the past 18 months. After bottoming in March 2009, the ETF has developed a
sustained medium term uptrend with higher lows and current resistance at $7.50. A breakout of $7.50 would be a
bullish signal for a continued advance of the uptrend
SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Fund (SLF) seeks to closely track, before fees and expenses, the returns and
characteristics of the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Trust Index. The approach is designed to provide a portfolio with low
portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and low costs.*
The Index comprises the leading listed property vehicles in Australia and represents diversified exposure to the Australian
listed property market. Exposure is diversified geographically across Australia’s major population centres and by sector
across a range of property types, including industrial, commercial, retail and hotel/tourism.*
*Source: IRESS
The breakdown of the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Index is as follows:
SLF vs XJO (ex property trust) performance over the past 3 years
Source: IRESS
The chart above compares the returns from the S&P/ASX 200 – Ex-property and SLF. It can be seen that the listed
property sector has been a big underperformer compared to the rest of the market and this underperformance has
increased over the past month, despite property companies improving their balance sheets. Look for this
underperformance to reverse as the listed property companies de-risk and sell underperforming assets.
Using SLFSZX to gain exposure to listed property index
Take advantage of upside in the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Index through an RBS Self Funding Instalment, SLFSZX.
Self Funding Instalments (SFIs) are a simple way to gain long term geared exposure to ASX-listed shares while receiving
many of the major benefits of share ownership including exposure to share price movements, dividends and franking
credits.
* Listed property has significantly underperformed the rest of the market, particularly in the most recent rally
* A major concern for the smaller property trusts has been refinancing debt, however banks are more likely to re-
finance the property trusts rather than taking the properties onto their own balance sheets and then having to
manage them
* Occupancy rates are still high, particularly in retail property which makes up a large proportion of the overall
SLF portfolio (predominantly WDC)
* Major property compmanies have undergone capital raisings to improve their balance sheets and de-risk
* SLF offers an attractive yield with any franking credits an added bonus
* SLF gives you exposure to the whole sector, which reduces the risk of being exposed to problems of any
individual company.
STRATEGY – Using SLFSZX and WDCKZR to gain exposure to listed property ex-WDC
For investors out there who are looking to gain exposure to a basket of listed property stocks without the 46% exposure to
Westfield Group (WDC), a strategy to consider would be long SLFSZX and then short WDC thorugh WDCKZR MINI
short. This strategy would give you upside exposure to all the stocks in SLF except WDC.
Date Code Company Y/E NPAT (Abs) Div EPS 2H div Long Short
(pre abs) Product Product
11 Aug COH Cochlear Limited Jun AUD 137.4 0.0 170.0c 241.0c 90.0c COHKZB COHKZQ
11 Aug JBH JB Hi Fi Jun AUD 92.3 0.0 37.0c 90.0c 22.0c JBHKZP
12 Aug BHP BHP Billiton Jun USD 10506 -4466 82.0c 188.8c 41.0c BHPKZD BHPKZR
12 Aug CBA Comm Bank Jun AUD 4104.4 0.0 228.0c 279.6c 106.0c CBAKZN CBAKZT
12 Aug CPU Computershare Jun USD 291.3 -6.1 23.0c 52.2c CPUKZB CPUKZP
13 Aug TLS Telstra Corporation Jun AUD 3979 0.0 28.0c 32.0c 14.0c TLSKZD TLSKZP
13 Aug CCL Coca Cola Amatil Dec AUD 193.5 0.0 19.0c 60.2c 43.0c CCLKZA CCLKZP
14 Aug LEI Leighton Holdings Jun AUD 627.0 -218.5 107.0c 215.3c 47.0c LEIKZI LEIKZP
JB Hi Fi (JBH)
• FY09 NPAT A$94.4m (+45.1%), on strong results in Australia & NZ. Loss on sale of Fixed Assets A$2.1m, v A$2.9m pcp.
• Final dividend of 29cps representing FY09 payout ratio of 50%. This is the new target, up from 40% previously. Will likely result
in 10cps uplifts to dividends going forward.
• RBS Research target price increased to $20 from $17.75
Computershare (CPU)
• Result was in line with RBS forecasts - normalised NPAT at US$290m (vs RBS at US$291m) and EPS at US52.1c (vs RBS at
US52.4c).
• Guidance for the FY10 is for EPS "to be similar to" FY09. Given management's usual conservatism at the start of the year, RBS
REsearch view this as positive
• Free cashflow was very strong at US$319m, up 5% on pcp although this was partly due to a halving of capex to US$23m.
• Interim dividend was flat at A11c (50% franked) rather than lifted by the usual 1c per half.
Just a reminder to XJOKZT holders that the MINI is close to its stop loss of 4393. A stop loss event only occurs if the SPI
hits 4393 or higher between 10am and 4pm. However, if you wish to maintain your XJO MINI short exposure you will
need to roll over to either XJOKZS or XJOKZW prior to the SPI futures hitting 4393. If the stop loss level is hit, RBS will
buy back the SPI futures underlying the XJOKZT and holders will reveice the remaining value. Details of roll options are:
Contact
Equities Structured Products & Warrants
Toll free 1800 450 005 www.rbs.com.au/warrants
Trading Products Team
Ben Smoker 02 8259 2085 ben.smoker@rbs.com
Robbie Taylor 02 8259 2018 robbie.taylor@rbs.com
Ryan Corrigan 02 8259 2425 ryan.corrigan@rbs.com
Investment Products Team
Elizabeth Tian 02 8259 2017 elizabeth.tian@rbs.com
Tania Smyth 02 8259 2023 tania.smyth@rbs.com
Robert Deutsch 02 8259 2065 robert.deutsch@rbs.com
Mark Tisdell 02 8259 6951 mark.tisdell@rbs.com
Disclaimer:
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