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3,000 Years of Human History, Described in One Set of Mathematical Equations | Surprising Science
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September 23, 201 3 3,000 Years of Human History, Described in One Set of Mathematical Equations
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Most people think of history as a series of storiestales of one army unex pectedly defeating another, or a politician making a memorable speech, or an upstart ov erthrowing a sitting monarch. Peter Turchin of the Univ ersity of Connecticut sees things rather differently . Formally trained as a ecologist, he sees history as a series of equations. Specifically , he wants to bring the ty pes of mathematical models used in fields such as wildlife ecology to ex plain population trends in a different species: humans. In a paper published with colleagues today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , he presents a mathematical model (shown on the left of the v ideo abov e) that correlates well with historical data (shown on the right) on the dev elopment and spread of large-scale, complex societies (represented as red territories on the green area studied). The simulation runs from 1 500 B.C.E. to 1 500 C.E.so it encompasses the growth of societies like Mesopotamia, ancient Egy pt and the likeand replicates historical trends with 65 percent accuracy . This might not sound like a perfect accounting of human history , but thats not really the goal. Turchin simply wants to apply mathematical analy sis to the field of history so that researchers can determine which factors are most influential in affecting the spread of human states and populations, just as ecologists hav e done when analy zing wildlife population dy namics. Essentially , he wants to answer a simple question: Why did complex societies dev elop and spread in some areas but not others? In this study , Turchins team found that conflict between societies and the dev elopment of military technology as a result of war were the most important elements that predicted which states would dev elop and ex pand ov er the mapwith those factors taken away , the model deteriorated, describing actual history with only 1 6 percent accuracy . Turchin began thinking about apply ing math to history in general about 1 5 y ears ago. I alway s

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3,000 Years of Human History, Described in One Set of Mathematical Equations | Surprising Science

enjoy ed history , but I realized then that it was the last major discipline which was not mathematized, he ex plains. But mathematical approachesmodeling, statistics, etc.are an inherent part of any real science. In bringing these sorts of tools into the arena of world history and dev eloping a mathematical model, his team was inspired by a theory called cultural multilev el selection, which predicts that competition between different groups is the main driv er of the ev olution of large-scale, complex societies. To build that into the model, they div ided all of Africa and Eurasia into gridded squares which were each categorized by a few env ironmental v ariables (the ty pe of habitat, elev ation, and whether it had agriculture in 1 500 B.C.E.). They then seeded military technology in squares adjacent to the grasslands of central Asia, because the domestication of horsesthe dominant military technology of the agelikely arose there initially . Ov er time, the model allowed for domesticated horses to spread between adjacent squares. It also simulated conflict between v arious entities, allowing squares to take ov er nearby squares, determining v ictory based on the area each entity controlled, and thus growing the sizes of empires. After plugging in these v ariables, they let the model simulate 3,000 y ears of human history , then compared its results to actual data, gleaned from a v ariety of historical atlases. Although its not perfect, the accuracy of their modelpredicting the dev elopment and spread of empires in nearly all the right placessurprised ev en the researchers. To tell the truth, the success of this enterprise ex ceeded my wildest ex pectations, Turchin say s. Who would hav e thought that a simple model could ex plain 65% of v ariance in a large historical database? So why would conflict between societies prov e to be such a crucial v ariable in predicting where empires would form? To ev olv e to a large size, societies need special institutions that are necessary for holding them together, Turchin proposes. But such institutions hav e large internal costs, and without constant competition from other societies, they collapse. Only constant competition ensures that ultrasocial norms and institutions will persist and spread. The model shows that agriculture is a necessary but not sufficient precondition for a complex society , he say sthese states cant form without farming, but the persistent presence of competition and warfare is necessary to forge farming societies into durable, large-scale empires. Conv entional analy ses of history could come to this same conclusion, but they wouldnt be able to demonstrate it in the same mathematically -based way . Using this approach, on the other hand, Turchins group could remov e the influence of warfare and see the models accuracy in describing real historical data plummet. Of course, there are limitations to v iewing history through mathhumans are more complicated than numbers. Differences in culture, env ironmental factors and thousands of other v ariables not included in the model all hav e effect, Turchin say s. A simple general model should not be able to capture actual history in all its glorious complex ity . Still, the model is a unique and v aluable tool. Going forward, Turchins team wants to dev elop it furtheradding more nuance (such as including the quality of agricultural productiv ity , rather than merely toggling if farming ex ists in a giv en area or not) to improv e on that 65 percent accuracy . Additionally , they d like to ex pand the model, apply ing it to more recent world history and also pre-Columbian North America, if they can find relev ant historical data. Based on his ex periences so far, Turchin thinks they ll be successful in dev eloping a model that better reflects the the rise and fall of civ ilizations. It turns out that there is a lot of quantitativ e data in history , he say s, y ou just hav e to be creativ e in looking for it.

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1. David says: September 23, 2013 at 4:07 pm

I cant be the only one who read the title and thought on this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psy chohistory _%28fictional%29 RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

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3,000 Years of Human History, Described in One Set of Mathematical Equations | Surprising Science
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3,000 Years of Human History, Described in One Set of Mathematical Equations | Surprising Science
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