FREAKONOMICS A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Ever thing

Steven !" #evitt $nd Stephen %" !u&ner

CON'EN'S
AN EXPLANATORY NOTE In which the origins of this book are clarified. INTROD !TION" The #idden $ide of E%er&thing In which the book's central idea is set forth" na(el&) if (oralit& re*resents how *eo*le wo+ld like the world to work) then econo(ics shows how it act+all& does work. ,h& the con%entional wisdo( is so often wrong-#ow .e/*erts01fro( cri(inologists to real2estate agents to *olitical scientists1bend the facts-,h& knowing what to (eas+re) and how to (eas+re it) is the ke& to +nderstanding (odern life-,hat is .freakono(ics)0 an&wa&3 4. ,hat Do $choolteachers and $+(o ,restlers #a%e in !o((on3

In which we e/*lore the bea+t& of incenti%es) as well as their dark side 1cheating. ,ho cheats3 5+st abo+t e%er&one-#ow cheaters cheat) and how to catch the(-$tories fro( an Israeli da&2care center-The s+dden disa**earance of se%en (illion A(erican children-!heating schoolteachers in !hicago-,h& cheating to lose is worse than cheating to win-!o+ld s+(o wrestling) the national s*ort of 5a*an) be corr+*t3-,hat the 6agel 7an saw" (ankind (a& be (ore honest than we think. 8. #ow Is the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan Like a :ro+* of Real2Estate Agents3 In which it is arg+ed that nothing is (ore *owerf+l than infor(ation) es*eciall& when its *ower is ab+sed. :oing +nderco%er in the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan-,h& e/*erts of e%er& kind are in the *erfect *osition to e/*loit &o+-The antidote to infor(ation ab+se" the Internet-,h& a new car is s+ddenl& worth so (+ch less the (o(ent it lea%es the lot-6reaking the real2estate agent code" what .well (aintained0 reall& (eans-Is Trent Lott (ore racist than the a%erage ,eakest Link contestant3-,hat do online daters lie abo+t3 ;. ,h& Do Dr+g Dealers $till Li%e with Their 7o(s3 In which the con%entional wisdo( is often fo+nd to be a web of fabrication) self2interest) and con%enience. ,h& e/*erts ro+tinel& (ake +* statistics< the in%ention of chronic halitosis-#ow to ask a good =+estion-$+dhir >enkatesh's long) strange tri* into the crack den-Life is a to+rna(ent-,h& *rostit+tes earn (ore than architects-,hat a dr+g dealer) a high2school =+arterback) and an editorial assistant ha%e in co((on-#ow the

in%ention of crack cocaine (irrored the in%ention of n&lon stockings,as crack the worst thing to hit black A(ericans since 5i( !row3 ?. ,here #a%e All the !ri(inals :one3 In which the facts of cri(e are sorted o+t fro( the fictions. ,hat Nicolae !ea+3esc+ learned1the hard wa&1abo+t abortion-,h& the 4@ABs were a great ti(e to be a cri(inal-Think the roaring 4@@Bs econo(& *+t a cri(* on cri(e3 Think again-,h& ca*ital *+nish(ent doesn't deter cri(inals-Do *olice act+all& lower cri(e rates3-Prisons) *risons e%er&where-$eeing thro+gh the New York !it& *olice .(iracle0-,hat is a g+n) reall&3-,h& earl& crack dealers were like 7icrosoft (illionaires and later crack dealers were like Pets.co(-The s+*er*redator %ers+s the senior citiCen-5ane Roe) cri(e sto**er" how the legaliCation of abortion changed e%er&thing. D. ,hat 7akes a Perfect Parent3 In which we ask) fro( a %ariet& of angles) a *ressing =+estion" do *arents reall& (atter3 The con%ersion of *arenting fro( an art to a science-,h& *arenting e/*erts like to scare *arents to death-,hich is (ore dangero+s" a g+n or a swi((ing *ool3-The econo(ics of fear-Obsessi%e *arents and the nat+re2n+rt+re =+ag(ire-,h& a good school isn't as good as &o+ (ight think-The black2white test ga* and .acting white0-Eight things that (ake a child do better in school and eight that don't. A. Perfect Parenting) Part II< or" ,o+ld a Roshanda b& An& Other Na(e $(ell as $weet3

In which we weigh the i(*ortance of a *arent's first official act1 na(ing the bab&. A bo& na(ed ,inner and his brother) Loser-The blackest na(es and the whitest na(es-The segregation of c+lt+re" wh& $einfeld ne%er (ade the to* fift& a(ong black %iewers-If &o+ ha%e a reall& bad na(e) sho+ld &o+ E+st change it3-#igh2end na(es and low2end na(es Fand how one beco(es the otherG-6ritne& $*ears" a s&(*to() not a ca+se-Is A%i%a the ne/t 7adison3-,hat &o+r *arents were telling the world when the& ga%e &o+ &o+r na(e. EPILO: E" Two Paths to #ar%ard In which the de*endabilit& of data (eets the rando(ness of life.

AN E()#ANA'OR* NO'E
The (ost brilliant &o+ng econo(ist in A(erica1the one so dee(ed) at least) b& a E+r& of his elders1brakes to a sto* at a traffic light on !hicago's so+th side. It is a s+nn& da& in (id25+ne. #e dri%es an aging green !he%& !a%alier with a d+st& dashboard and a window that doesn't =+ite sh+t) *rod+cing a d+ll roar at highwa& s*eeds. 6+t the car is =+iet for now) as are the noonti(e streets" gas stations) bo+ndless concrete) brick b+ildings with *l&wood windows. An elderl& ho(eless (an a**roaches. It sa&s he is ho(eless right on his sign) which also asks for (one&. #e wears a torn Eacket) too hea%& for the war( da&) and a gri(& red baseball ca*.

The econo(ist doesn't lock his doors or inch the car forward. Nor does he go scro+nging for s*are change. #e E+st watches) as if thro+gh one2 wa& glass. After a while) the ho(eless (an (o%es along. .#e had nice head*hones)0 sa&s the econo(ist) still watching in the rear%iew (irror. .,ell) nicer than the ones I ha%e. Otherwise) it doesn't look like he has (an& assets.0 $te%en Le%itt tends to see things differentl& than the a%erage *erson. Differentl&) too) than the a%erage econo(ist. This is either a wonderf+l trait or a tro+bling one) de*ending on how &o+ feel abo+t econo(ists. 1The New York Ti(es 7agaCine) A+g+st ;) 8BB; In the s+((er of 8BB;) The New York Ti(es 7agaCine sent $te*hen 5. D+bner) an a+thor and Eo+rnalist) to write a *rofile of $te%en D. Le%itt) a heralded &o+ng econo(ist at the ni%ersit& of !hicago.

D+bner) who was researching a book abo+t the *s&cholog& of (one&) had latel& been inter%iewing (an& econo(ists and fo+nd that the& often s*oke English as if it were a fo+rth or fifth lang+age. Le%itt) who had E+st won the 5ohn 6ates !lark 7edal Fawarded e%er& two &ears to the best A(erican econo(ist +nder fort&G) had latel& been inter%iewed b& (an& Eo+rnalists and fo+nd that their thinking wasn't %er&-rob+st) as an econo(ist (ight sa&. 6+t Le%itt decided that D+bner wasn't a co(*lete idiot. And D+bner fo+nd that Le%itt wasn't a h+(an slide r+le. The writer was daCCled b& the in%enti%eness of the econo(ist's work and his knack for e/*laining it. Des*ite Le%itt's elite credentials F#ar%ard +ndergrad) a PhD fro( 7IT) a stack of awardsG) he a**roached econo(ics in a notabl& +northodo/ wa&. #e see(ed to look at things not so (+ch as an acade(ic b+t as a %er& s(art and c+rio+s e/*lorer1a doc+(entar&

fil((aker) *erha*s) or a forensic in%estigator or a bookie whose (arkets ranged fro( s*orts to cri(e to *o* c+lt+re. #e *rofessed little interest in the sort of (onetar& iss+es that co(e to (ind when (ost *eo*le think abo+t econo(ics< he *racticall& bl+stered with self2 efface(ent. .I E+st don't know %er& (+ch abo+t the field of econo(ics)0 he told D+bner at one *oint) swi*ing the hair fro( his e&es. .I'( not good at (ath) I don't know a lot of econo(etrics) and I also don't know how to do theor&. If &o+ ask (e abo+t whether the stock (arket's going to go +* or down) if &o+ ask (e whether the econo(&'s going to grow or shrink) if &o+ ask (e whether deflation's good or bad) if &o+ ask (e abo+t ta/es1I (ean) it wo+ld be total faker& if I said I knew an&thing abo+t an& of those things.0 ,hat interested Le%itt were the st+ff and riddles of e%er&da& life. #is in%estigations were a feast for an&one wanting to know how the world reall& works. #is sing+lar attit+de was e%oked in D+bner's res+lting article" As Le%itt sees it) econo(ics is a science with e/cellent tools for gaining answers b+t a serio+s shortage of interesting =+estions. #is *artic+lar gift is the abilit& to ask s+ch =+estions. Hor instance" If dr+g dealers (ake so (+ch (one&) wh& do the& still li%e with their (others3 ,hich is (ore dangero+s) a g+n or a swi((ing *ool3 ,hat reall& ca+sed cri(e rates to *l+nge d+ring the *ast decade3 Do real2estate agents ha%e their clients' best interests at heart3 ,h& do black *arents gi%e their children na(es that (a& h+rt their career *ros*ects3 Do schoolteachers cheat to (eet high2stakes testing standards3 Is s+(o wrestling corr+*t3 And how does a ho(eless (an in tattered clothing afford IDB head*hones3

7an& *eo*le1incl+ding a fair n+(ber of his *eers1(ight not recogniCe Le%itt's work as econo(ics at all. 6+t he has (erel& distilled the so2called dis(al science to its (ost *ri(al ai(" e/*laining how *eo*le get what the& want. nlike (ost acade(ics) he is +nafraid of +sing *ersonal obser%ations and c+riosities< he is also +nafraid of anecdote and stor&telling Fb+t he is afraid of calc+l+sG. #e is an int+itionist. #e sifts thro+gh a *ile of data to find a stor& that no one else has fo+nd. #e fig+res a wa& to (eas+re an effect that %eteran econo(ists had declared +n(eas+rable. #is abiding interests1tho+gh he sa&s he has ne%er trafficked in the( hi(self1are cheating) corr+*tion) and cri(e. Le%itt's blaCing c+riosit& also *ro%ed attracti%e to tho+sands of New York Ti(es readers. #e was beset b& =+estions and =+eries) riddles and re=+ests1fro( :eneral 7otors and the New York Yankees and .$. senators b+t also fro( *risoners and *arents and a (an who for twent& &ears had ke*t *recise data on his sales of bagels. A for(er To+r de Hrance cha(*ion called Le%itt to ask his hel* in *ro%ing that the c+rrent To+r is rife with do*ing< the !entral Intelligence Agenc& wanted to know how Le%itt (ight +se data to catch (one& la+nderers and terrorists. ,hat the& were all res*onding to was the force of Le%itt's +nderl&ing belief" that the (odern world) des*ite a s+rfeit of obf+scation) co(*lication) and downright deceit) is not i(*enetrable) is not +nknowable) and1if the right =+estions are asked1is e%en (ore intrig+ing than we think. All it takes is a new wa& of looking. In New York !it&) the *+blishers were telling Le%itt he sho+ld write a book.

.,rite a book30 he said. .I don't want to write a book.0 #e alread& had a (illion (ore riddles to sol%e than ti(e to sol%e the(. Nor did he think hi(self (+ch of a writer. $o he said that no) he wasn't interested 1.+nless)0 he *ro*osed) .(a&be D+bner and I co+ld do it together.0 !ollaboration isn't for e%er&one. 6+t the two of the(1henceforth known as the two of +s1decided to talk things o%er to see if s+ch a book (ight work. ,e decided it co+ld. ,e ho*e &o+ agree.

Le%itt had an inter%iew for the $ociet& of Hellows) the %enerable intellect+al cl+bho+se at #ar%ard that *a&s &o+ng scholars to do their own work) for three &ears) with no co((it(ents. Le%itt felt he didn't stand a chance. Hor starters) he didn't consider hi(self an intellect+al. #e wo+ld be inter%iewed o%er dinner b& the senior fellows) a collection of world2renowned *hiloso*hers) scientists) and historians. #e worried he wo+ldn't ha%e eno+gh con%ersation to last e%en the first co+rse. Dis=+ietingl&) one of the senior fellows said to Le%itt) .I'( ha%ing a hard ti(e seeing the +nif&ing the(e of &o+r work. !o+ld &o+ e/*lain it30 Le%itt was st&(ied. #e had no idea what his +nif&ing the(e was) or if he e%en had one. A(art&a $en) the f+t+re Nobel2winning econo(ist) E+(*ed in and neatl& s+((ariCed what he saw as Le%itt's the(e. Yes) Le%itt said eagerl&) that's (& the(e. Another fellow then offered another the(e.

Yo+'re right) said Le%itt) (& the(e. And so it went) like dogs t+gging at a bone) +ntil the *hiloso*her Robert NoCick interr+*ted. .#ow old are &o+) $te%e30 he asked. .Twent&2si/.0 NoCick t+rned to the other fellows" .#e's twent&2si/ &ears old. ,h& does he need to ha%e a +nif&ing the(e3 7a&be he's going to be one of those *eo*le who's so talented he doesn't need one. #e'll take a =+estion and he'll E+st answer it) and it'll be fine.0 1T#E NE, YOR9 TI7E$ 7A:AJINE) A : $T ;) 8BB;

IN'RO!+C'ION, 'he Hidden Side of Ever thing

An&one li%ing in the nited $tates in the earl& 4@@Bs and *a&ing e%en

a whis*er of attention to the nightl& news or a dail& *a*er co+ld be forgi%en for ha%ing been scared o+t of his skin. The c+l*rit was cri(e. It had been rising relentlessl&1a gra*h *lotting the cri(e rate in an& A(erican cit& o%er recent decades looked like a ski slo*e in *rofile1and it see(ed now to herald the end of the world as we knew it. Death b& g+nfire) intentional and otherwise) had beco(e co((on*lace. $o too had carEacking and crack dealing) robber& and ra*e. >iolent cri(e was a gr+eso(e) constant co(*anion. And things were abo+t to get e%en worse. 7+ch worse. All the e/*erts were sa&ing so.

The ca+se was the so2called s+*er*redator. Hor a ti(e) he was e%er&where. :lowering fro( the co%er of newsweeklies. $waggering his wa& thro+gh foot2thick go%ern(ent re*orts. #e was a scrawn&) big2 cit& teenager with a chea* g+n in his hand and nothing in his heart b+t r+thlessness. There were tho+sands o+t there E+st like hi() we were told) a generation of killers abo+t to h+rl the co+ntr& into dee*est chaos. In 4@@D the cri(inologist 5a(es Alan Ho/ wrote a re*ort for the .$.

attorne& general that gri(l& detailed the co(ing s*ike in (+rders b& teenagers. Ho/ *ro*osed o*ti(istic and *essi(istic scenarios. In the o*ti(istic scenario) he belie%ed) the rate of teen ho(icides wo+ld rise another 4D *ercent o%er the ne/t decade< in the *essi(istic scenario) it wo+ld (ore than do+ble. .The ne/t cri(e wa%e will get so bad)0 he said) .that it will (ake 4@@D look like the good old da&s.0 Other cri(inologists) *olitical scientists) and si(ilarl& learned

forecasters laid o+t the sa(e horrible f+t+re) as did President !linton. .,e know we'%e got abo+t si/ &ears to t+rn this E+%enile cri(e thing aro+nd)0 !linton said) .or o+r co+ntr& is going to be li%ing with chaos. And (& s+ccessors will not be gi%ing s*eeches abo+t the wonderf+l o**ort+nities of the global econo(&< the&'ll be tr&ing to kee* bod& and so+l together for *eo*le on the streets of these cities.0 The s(art (one& was *lainl& on the cri(inals. And then) instead of going +* and +* and +*) cri(e began to fall. And fall and fall and fall so(e (ore. The cri(e dro* was startling in se%eral res*ects. It was +bi=+ito+s) with e%er& categor& of cri(e falling in e%er& *art of the co+ntr&. It was *ersistent) with incre(ental decreases &ear after &ear. And it was entirel& +nantici*ated1es*eciall& b& the %er& e/*erts who had been *redicting the o**osite.

The (agnit+de of the re%ersal was asto+nding. The teenage (+rder rate) instead of rising 4BB *ercent or e%en 4D *ercent as 5a(es Alan Ho/ had warned) fell (ore than DB *ercent within fi%e &ears. 6& 8BBB the o%erall (+rder rate in the nited $tates had dro**ed to its lowest le%el in thirt&2fi%e &ears. $o had the rate of E+st abo+t e%er& other sort of cri(e) fro( assa+lt to car theft. E%en tho+gh the e/*erts had failed to antici*ate the cri(e dro*1which was in fact well +nder wa& e%en as the& (ade their horrif&ing *redictions1the& now h+rried to e/*lain it. 7ost of their theories so+nded *erfectl& logical. It was the roaring 4@@Bs econo(&) the& said) that hel*ed t+rn back cri(e. It was the *roliferation of g+n control laws) the& said. It was the sort of inno%ati%e *olicing strategies *+t into *lace in New York !it&) where (+rders wo+ld fall fro( 8)8?D in 4@@B to D@A in 8BB;. These theories were not onl& logical< the& were also enco+raging) for the& attrib+ted the cri(e dro* to s*ecific and recent h+(an initiati%es. If it was g+n control and cle%er *olice strategies and better2*a&ing Eobs that =+elled cri(e1well then) the *ower to sto* cri(inals had been within o+r reach all along. As it wo+ld be the ne/t ti(e) :od forbid) that cri(e got so bad. These theories (ade their wa&) see(ingl& witho+t =+estion) fro( the e/*erts' (o+ths to Eo+rnalists' ears to the *+blic's (ind. In short co+rse) the& beca(e con%entional wisdo(. There was onl& one *roble(" the& weren't tr+e. There was another factor) (eanwhile) that had greatl& contrib+ted to the (assi%e cri(e dro* of the 4@@Bs. It had taken sha*e (ore than

twent& &ears earlier and concerned a &o+ng wo(an in Dallas na(ed Nor(a 7c!or%e&. Like the *ro%erbial b+tterfl& that fla*s its wings on one continent and e%ent+all& ca+ses a h+rricane on another) Nor(a 7c!or%e& dra(aticall& altered the co+rse of e%ents witho+t intending to. All she had wanted was an abortion. $he was a *oor) +ned+cated) +nskilled) alcoholic) dr+g2+sing twent&2one2&ear2old wo(an who had alread& gi%en +* two children for ado*tion and now) in 4@KB) fo+nd herself *regnant again. 6+t in Te/as) as in all b+t a few states at that ti(e) abortion was illegal. 7c!or%e&'s ca+se ca(e to be ado*ted b& *eo*le far (ore *owerf+l than she. The& (ade her the lead *laintiff in a class2 action laws+it seeking to legaliCe abortion. The defendant was #enr& ,ade) the Dallas !o+nt& district attorne&. The case +lti(atel& (ade it to the .$. $+*re(e !o+rt) b& which ti(e 7c!or%e&'s na(e had been disg+ised as 5ane Roe. On 5an+ar& 88) 4@K;) the co+rt r+led in fa%or of 7s. Roe) allowing legaliCed abortion thro+gho+t the co+ntr&. 6& this ti(e) of co+rse) it was far too late for 7s. 7c!or%e&LRoe to ha%e her abortion. $he had gi%en birth and *+t the child +* for ado*tion. FYears later she wo+ld reno+nce her allegiance to legaliCed abortion and beco(e a *ro2life acti%ist.G $o how did Roe %. ,ade hel* trigger) a generation later) the greatest cri(e dro* in recorded histor&3 As far as cri(e is concerned) it t+rns o+t that not all children are born e=+al. Not e%en close. Decades of st+dies ha%e shown that a child born into an ad%erse fa(il& en%iron(ent is far (ore likel& than other children to beco(e a cri(inal. And the (illions of wo(en (ost likel& to ha%e an abortion in the wake of Roe %. ,ade1*oor) +n(arried) and teenage (others for who( illegal abortions had been too e/*ensi%e or too hard to get1were often (odels of ad%ersit&. The& were the %er&

wo(en whose children) if born) wo+ld ha%e been (+ch (ore likel& than a%erage to beco(e cri(inals. 6+t beca+se of Roe %. ,ade) these children weren't being born. This *owerf+l ca+se wo+ld ha%e a drastic) distant effect" &ears later) E+st as these +nborn children wo+ld ha%e entered their cri(inal *ri(es) the rate of cri(e began to *l+((et. It wasn't g+n control or a strong econo(& or new *olice strategies that finall& bl+nted the A(erican cri(e wa%e. It was) a(ong other factors) the realit& that the *ool of *otential cri(inals had dra(aticall& shr+nk. Now) as the cri(e2dro* e/*erts Fthe for(er cri(e doo(sa&ersG s*+n their theories to the (edia) how (an& ti(es did the& cite legaliCed abortion as a ca+se3 Jero.

It is the =+intessential blend of co((erce and ca(araderie" &o+ hire a real2estate agent to sell &o+r ho(e. $he siCes +* its char(s) sna*s so(e *ict+res) sets the *rice) writes a sed+cti%e ad) shows the ho+se aggressi%el&) negotiates the offers) and sees the deal thro+gh to its end. $+re) it's a lot of work) b+t she's getting a nice c+t. On the sale of a I;BB)BBB ho+se) a t&*ical A *ercent agent fee &ields I4M)BBB. Eighteen tho+sand dollars) &o+ sa& to &o+rself" that's a lot of (one&. 6+t &o+ also tell &o+rself that &o+ ne%er co+ld ha%e sold the ho+se for I;BB)BBB on &o+r own. The agent knew how to1what's that *hrase she +sed31.(a/i(iCe the ho+se's %al+e.0 $he got &o+ to* dollar) right3 Right3

A real2estate agent is a different breed of e/*ert than a cri(inolo2gist) b+t she is e%er& bit the e/*ert. That is) she knows her field far better than the la&(an on whose behalf she is acting. $he is better infor(ed abo+t the ho+se's %al+e) the state of the ho+sing (arket) e%en the b+&er's fra(e of (ind. Yo+ de*end on her for this infor(ation. That) in fact) is wh& &o+ hired an e/*ert. As the world has grown (ore s*ecialiCed) co+ntless s+ch e/*erts ha%e (ade the(sel%es si(ilarl& indis*ensable. Doctors) law&ers) contractors) stockbrokers) a+to (echanics) (ortgage brokers) financial *lanners" the& all enEo& a gigantic infor(ational ad%antage. And the& +se that ad%antage to hel* &o+) the *erson who hired the() get e/actl& what &o+ want for the best *rice. Right3 It wo+ld be lo%el& to think so. 6+t e/*erts are h+(an) and h+(ans res*ond to incenti%es. #ow an& gi%en e/*ert treats &o+) therefore) will de*end on how that e/*ert's incenti%es are set +*. $o(eti(es his incenti%es (a& work in &o+r fa%or. Hor instance" a st+d& of !alifornia a+to (echanics fo+nd the& often *assed +* a s(all re*air bill b& letting failing cars *ass e(issions ins*ections1the reason being that lenient (echanics are rewarded with re*eat b+siness. 6+t in a different case) an e/*ert's incenti%es (a& work against &o+. In a (edical st+d&) it t+rned o+t that obstetricians in areas with declining birth rates are (+ch (ore likel& to *erfor( cesarean2section deli%eries than obstetricians in growing areas1s+ggesting that) when b+siness is to+gh) doctors tr& to ring +* (ore e/*ensi%e *roced+res. It is one thing to (+se abo+t e/*erts' ab+sing their *osition and another to *ro%e it. The best wa& to do so wo+ld be to (eas+re how an e/*ert treats &o+ %ers+s how he *erfor(s the sa(e ser%ice for hi(self.

nfort+natel& a s+rgeon doesn't o*erate on hi(self. Nor is his (edical file a (atter of *+blic record< neither is an a+to (echanic's re*air log for his own car. Real2estate sales) howe%er) are a (atter of *+blic record. And real2 estate agents often do sell their own ho(es. A recent set of data co%ering the sale of nearl& 4BB)BBB ho+ses in s+b+rban !hicago shows that (ore than ;)BBB of those ho+ses were owned b& the agents the(sel%es. 6efore *l+nging into the data) it hel*s to ask a =+estion" what is the real2estate agent's incenti%e when she is selling her own ho(e3 $i(*le" to (ake the best deal *ossible. Pres+(abl& this is also &o+r incenti%e when &o+ are selling &o+r ho(e. And so &o+r incenti%e and the real2estate agent's incenti%e wo+ld see( to be nicel& aligned. #er co((ission) after all) is based on the sale *rice. 6+t as incenti%es go) co((issions are trick&. Hirst of all) a A *ercent real2estate co((ission is t&*icall& s*lit between the seller's agent and the b+&er's. Each agent then kicks back half of her take to the agenc&. ,hich (eans that onl& 4.D *ercent of the *+rchase *rice goes directl& into &o+r agent's *ocket. $o on the sale of &o+r I;BB)BBB ho+se) her *ersonal take of the I4M)BBB co((ission is I?)DBB. $till not bad) &o+ sa&. 6+t what if the ho+se was act+all& worth (ore than I;BB)BBB3 ,hat if) with a little (ore effort and *atience and a few (ore news*a*er ads) she co+ld ha%e sold it for I;4B)BBB3 After the co((ission) that *+ts an additional I@)?BB in &o+r *ocket. 6+t the agent's additional share1her *ersonal 4.D *ercent of the e/tra I4B)BBB1is a (ere I4DB. If &o+ earn I@)?BB while she earns onl& I4DB) (a&be &o+r incenti%es aren't aligned after all. FEs*eciall& when she's the one *a&ing for the ads and

doing all the work.G Is the agent willing to *+t o+t all that e/tra ti(e) (one&) and energ& for E+st I4DB3 There's one wa& to find o+t" (eas+re the difference between the sales data for ho+ses that belong to real2estate agents the(sel%es and the ho+ses the& sold on behalf of clients. sing the data fro( the sales of those 4BB)BBB !hicago ho(es) and controlling for an& n+(ber of %ariables1location) age and =+alit& of the ho+se) aesthetics) and so on 1it t+rns o+t that a real2estate agent kee*s her own ho(e on the (arket an a%erage of ten da&s longer and sells it for an e/tra ;2*l+s *ercent) or I4B)BBB on a I;BB)BBB ho+se. ,hen she sells her own ho+se) an agent holds o+t for the best offer< when she sells &o+rs) she *+shes &o+ to take the first decent offer that co(es along. Like a stockbroker ch+rning co((issions) she wants to (ake deals and (ake the( fast. ,h& not3 #er share of a better offer1I4DB1is too *+n& an incenti%e to enco+rage her to do otherwise.

Of all the tr+is(s abo+t *olitics) one is held to be tr+er than the rest" (one& b+&s elections. Arnold $chwarCenegger) 7ichael 6loo(berg) 5on !orCine1these are b+t a few recent) dra(atic e/a(*les of the tr+is( at work. FDisregard for a (o(ent the contrar& e/a(*les of #oward Dean) $te%e Horbes) 7ichael #+ffington) and es*eciall& Tho(as :olisano) who o%er the co+rse of three g+bernatorial elections in New York s*ent I@; (illion of his own (one& and won ? *ercent) M *ercent) and 4? *ercent) res*ecti%el&) of the %ote.G 7ost *eo*le wo+ld agree that (one& has an +nd+e infl+ence on elections and that far too (+ch (one& is s*ent on *olitical ca(*aigns.

Indeed) election data show it is tr+e that the candidate who s*ends (ore (one& in a ca(*aign +s+all& wins. 6+t is (one& the ca+se of the %ictor&3 It (ight see( logical to think so) (+ch as it (ight ha%e see(ed logical that a boo(ing 4@@Bs econo(& hel*ed red+ce cri(e. 6+t E+st beca+se two things are correlated does not (ean that one ca+ses the other. A correlation si(*l& (eans that a relationshi* e/ists between two factors 1let's call the( X and Y1b+t it tells &o+ nothing abo+t the direction of that relationshi*. It's *ossible that X ca+ses Y< it's also *ossible that Y ca+ses X< and it (a& be that X and Y are both being ca+sed b& so(e other factor) J. Think abo+t this correlation" cities with a lot of (+rders also tend to ha%e a lot of *olice officers. !onsider now the *oliceL(+rder correlation in a *air of real cities. Den%er and ,ashington) D.!.) ha%e abo+t the sa(e *o*+lation1b+t ,ashington has nearl& three ti(es as (an& *olice as Den%er) and it also has eight ti(es the n+(ber of (+rders. nless &o+ ha%e (ore infor(ation) howe%er) it's hard to sa& what's ca+sing what. $o(eone who didn't know better (ight conte(*late these fig+res and concl+de that it is all those e/tra *olice in ,ashington who are ca+sing the e/tra (+rders. $+ch wa&ward thinking) which has a long histor&) generall& *ro%okes a wa&ward res*onse. !onsider the folktale of the cCar who learned that the (ost disease2ridden *ro%ince in his e(*ire was also the *ro%ince with the (ost doctors. #is sol+tion3 #e *ro(*tl& ordered all the doctors shot dead. Now) ret+rning to the iss+e of ca(*aign s*ending" in order to fig+re o+t the relationshi* between (one& and elections) it hel*s to consider the incenti%es at *la& in ca(*aign finance. Let's sa& &o+ are the kind of *erson who (ight contrib+te I4)BBB to a candidate. !hances are

&o+'ll gi%e the (one& in one of two sit+ations" a close race) in which &o+ think the (one& will infl+ence the o+tco(e< or a ca(*aign in which one candidate is a s+re winner and &o+ wo+ld like to bask in reflected glor& or recei%e so(e f+t+re in2kind consideration. The one candidate &o+ won't contrib+te to is a s+re loser. F5+st ask an& *residential ho*ef+l who bo(bs in Iowa and New #a(*shire.G $o front2 r+nners and inc+(bents raise a lot (ore (one& than long shots. And what abo+t s*ending that (one&3 Inc+(bents and front2r+nners ob%io+sl& ha%e (ore cash) b+t the& onl& s*end a lot of it when the& stand a legiti(ate chance of losing< otherwise) wh& di* into a war chest that (ight be (ore +sef+l later on) when a (ore for(idable o**onent a**ears3 Now *ict+re two candidates) one intrinsicall& a**ealing and the other not so. The a**ealing candidate raises (+ch (ore (one& and wins easil&. 6+t was it the (one& that won hi( the %otes) or was it his a**eal that won the %otes and the (one&3 That's a cr+cial =+estion b+t a %er& hard one to answer. >oter a**eal) after all) isn't eas& to =+antif&. #ow can it be (eas+red3 It can't) reall&1e/ce*t in one s*ecial case. The ke& is to (eas+re a candidate against-hi(self. That is) !andidate A toda& is likel& to be si(ilar to !andidate A two or fo+r &ears hence. The sa(e co+ld be said for !andidate 6. If onl& !andidate A ran against !andidate 6 in two consec+ti%e elections b+t in each case s*ent different a(o+nts of (one&. Then) with the candidates' a**eal (ore or less constant) we co+ld (eas+re the (one&'s i(*act. As it t+rns o+t) the sa(e two candidates r+n against each other in consec+ti%e elections all the ti(e1indeed) in nearl& a tho+sand .$.

congressional races since 4@K8. ,hat do the n+(bers ha%e to sa& abo+t s+ch cases3 #ere's the s+r*rise" the a(o+nt of (one& s*ent b& the candidates hardl& (atters at all. A winning candidate can c+t his s*ending in half and lose onl& 4 *ercent of the %ote. 7eanwhile) a losing candidate who do+bles his s*ending can e/*ect to shift the %ote in his fa%or b& onl& that sa(e 4 *ercent. ,hat reall& (atters for a *olitical candidate is not how (+ch &o+ s*end< what (atters is who &o+ are. FThe sa(e co+ld be said1and will be said) in cha*ter D1abo+t *arents.G $o(e *oliticians are inherentl& attracti%e to %oters and others si(*l& aren't) and no a(o+nt of (one& can do (+ch abo+t it. F7essrs. Dean) Horbes) #+ffington) and :olisano alread& know this) of co+rse.G And what abo+t the other half of the election tr+is(1that the a(o+nt of (one& s*ent on ca(*aign finance is obscenel& h+ge3 In a t&*ical election *eriod that incl+des ca(*aigns for the *residenc&) the $enate) and the #o+se of Re*resentati%es) abo+t I4 billion is s*ent *er &ear1 which so+nds like a lot of (one&) +nless &o+ care to (eas+re it against so(ething see(ingl& less i(*ortant than de(ocratic elections. It is the sa(e a(o+nt) for instance) that A(ericans s*end e%er& &ear on chewing g+(.

This isn't a book abo+t the cost of chewing g+( %ers+s ca(*aign s*ending *er se) or abo+t disingen+o+s real2estate agents) or the i(*act of legaliCed abortion on cri(e. It will certainl& address these scenarios and doCens (ore) fro( the art of *arenting to the (echanics of cheating) fro( the inner workings of the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan to racial discri(ination on The ,eakest Link. ,hat this book is abo+t is

stri**ing a la&er or two fro( the s+rface of (odern life and seeing what is ha**ening +nderneath. ,e will ask a lot of =+estions) so(e fri%olo+s and so(e abo+t life2and2death iss+es. The answers (a& often see( odd b+t) after the fact) also rather ob%io+s. ,e will seek o+t these answers in the data1whether those data co(e in the for( of schoolchildren's test scores or New York !it&'s cri(e statistics or a crack dealer's financial records. FOften we will take ad%antage of *atterns in the data that were incidentall& left behind) like an air*lane's shar* contrail in a high sk&.G It is well and good to o*ine or theoriCe abo+t a s+bEect) as h+(ankind is wont to do) b+t when (oral *ost+ring is re*laced b& an honest assess(ent of the data) the res+lt is often a new) s+r*rising insight. 7oralit&) it co+ld be arg+ed) re*resents the wa& that *eo*le wo+ld like the world to work1whereas econo(ics re*resents how it act+all& does work. Econo(ics is abo%e all a science of (eas+re(ent. It co(*rises an e/traordinaril& *owerf+l and fle/ible set of tools that can reliabl& assess a thicket of infor(ation to deter(ine the effect of an& one factor) or e%en the whole effect. That's what .the econo(&0 is) after all" a thicket of infor(ation abo+t Eobs and real estate and banking and in%est(ent. 6+t the tools of econo(ics can be E+st as easil& a**lied to s+bEects that are (ore1well) (ore interesting. This book) then) has been written fro( a %er& s*ecific world%iew) based on a few f+nda(ental ideas" Incenti%es are the cornerstone of (odern life. And +nderstanding the( 1or) often) ferreting the( o+t1is the ke& to sol%ing E+st abo+t an& riddle) fro( %iolent cri(e to s*orts cheating to online dating. The con%entional wisdo( is often wrong. !ri(e didn't kee* soaring in the 4@@Bs) (one& alone doesn't win elections) and1s+r*rise1drinking

eight glasses of water a da& has ne%er act+all& been shown to do a thing for &o+r health. !on%entional wisdo( is often shoddil& for(ed and de%ilishl& diffic+lt to see thro+gh) b+t it can be done. Dra(atic effects often ha%e distant) e%en s+btle) ca+ses. The answer to a gi%en riddle is not alwa&s right in front of &o+. Nor(a 7c!or%e& had a far greater i(*act on cri(e than did the co(bined forces of g+n control) a strong econo(&) and inno%ati%e *olice strategies. $o did) as we shall see) a (an na(ed Oscar Danilo 6landon) aka the 5ohnn& A**leseed of !rack. .E/*erts01fro( cri(inologists to real2estate agents1+se their

infor(ational ad%antage to ser%e their own agenda. #owe%er) the& can be beat at their own ga(e. And in the face of the Internet) their infor(ational ad%antage is shrinking e%er& da&1as e%idenced b&) a(ong other things) the falling *rice of coffins and life2ins+rance *re(i+(s. 9nowing what to (eas+re and how to (eas+re it (akes a co(*licated world (+ch less so. If &o+ learn how to look at data in the right wa&) &o+ can e/*lain riddles that otherwise (ight ha%e see(ed i(*ossible. 6eca+se there is nothing like the sheer *ower of n+(bers to scr+b awa& la&ers of conf+sion and contradiction. $o the ai( of this book is to e/*lore the hidden side of-e%er&thing. This (a& occasionall& be a fr+strating e/ercise. It (a& so(eti(es feel as if we are *eering at the world thro+gh a straw or e%en staring into a f+nho+se (irror< b+t the idea is to look at (an& different scenarios and e/a(ine the( in a wa& the& ha%e rarel& been e/a(ined. In so(e regards) this is a strange conce*t for a book. 7ost books *+t forth a single the(e) cris*l& e/*ressed in a sentence or two) and then tell the entire stor& of that the(e" the histor& of salt< the fragilit& of

de(ocrac&< the +se and (is+se of *+nct+ation. This book boasts no s+ch +nif&ing the(e. ,e did consider) for abo+t si/ (in+tes) writing a book that wo+ld re%ol%e aro+nd a single the(e1the theor& and *ractice of a**lied (icroecono(ics) an&one31b+t o*ted instead for a sort of treas+re2h+nt a**roach. Yes) this a**roach e(*lo&s the best anal&tical tools that econo(ics can offer) b+t it also allows +s to follow whate%er freakish c+riosities (a& occ+r to +s. Th+s o+r in%ented field of st+d&" Hreakono(ics. The sort of stories told in this book are not often co%ered in Econ. 4B4) b+t that (a& change. $ince the science of econo(ics is *ri(aril& a set of tools) as o**osed to a s+bEect (atter) then no s+bEect) howe%er offbeat) need be be&ond its reach. It is worth re(e(bering that Ada( $(ith) the fo+nder of classical econo(ics) was first and fore(ost a *hiloso*her. #e stro%e to be a (oralist and) in doing so) beca(e an econo(ist. ,hen he *+blished The Theor& of 7oral $enti(ents in 4KD@) (odern ca*italis( was E+st getting +nder wa&. $(ith was entranced b& the swee*ing changes wro+ght b& this new force) b+t it wasn't onl& the n+(bers that interested hi(. It was the h+(an effect) the fact that econo(ic forces were %astl& changing the wa& a *erson tho+ght and beha%ed in a gi%en sit+ation. ,hat (ight lead one *erson to cheat or steal while another didn't3 #ow wo+ld one *erson's see(ingl& innoc+o+s choice) good or bad) affect a great n+(ber of *eo*le down the line3 In $(ith's era) ca+se and effect had beg+n to wildl& accelerate< incenti%es were (agnified tenfold. The gra%it& and shock of these changes were as o%erwhel(ing to the citiCens of his ti(e as the gra%it& and shock of (odern life see( to +s toda&. $(ith's tr+e s+bEect was the friction between indi%id+al desire and societal nor(s. The econo(ic historian Robert #eilbroner) writing in The ,orldl& Philoso*hers) wondered how $(ith was able to se*arate

the doings of (an) a creat+re of self2interest) fro( the greater (oral *lane in which (an o*erated. .$(ith held that the answer la& in o+r abilit& to *+t o+rsel%es in the *osition of a third *erson) an i(*artial obser%er)0 #eilbroner wrote) .and in this wa& to for( a notion of the obEecti%e-(erits of a case.0 !onsider &o+rself) then) in the co(*an& of a third *erson1or) if &o+ will) a *air of third *eo*le1eager to e/*lore the obEecti%e (erits of interesting cases. These e/*lorations generall& begin with the asking of a si(*le +nasked =+estion. $+ch as" what do schoolteachers and s+(o wrestlers ha%e in co((on3 .I'd like to *+t together a set of tools that let +s catch terrorists)0 Le%itt said. .I don't necessaril& know &et how I'd go abo+t it. 6+t gi%en the right data) I ha%e little do+bt that I co+ld fig+re o+t the answer.0 It (ight see( abs+rd for an econo(ist to drea( of catching terrorists. 5+st as it (+st ha%e see(ed abs+rd if &o+ were a !hicago schoolteacher) called into an office and told that) ahe() the algorith(s designed b& that skinn& (an with thick glasses had deter(ined that &o+ are a cheater. And that &o+ are being fired. $te%en Le%itt (a& not f+ll& belie%e in hi(self) b+t he does belie%e in this" teachers and cri(inals and real2estate agents (a& lie) and *oliticians) and e%en !IA anal&sts. 6+t n+(bers don't. 1T#E N E, Y OR9 T I7E$ 7 A:AJINE) A : $T ;) 8BB;

- .h$t

!o

Schoolte$chers

$nd

Sumo

.restlers H$ve in Common/

I(agine for a (o(ent that &o+ are the (anager of a da&2care center. Yo+ ha%e a clearl& stated *olic& that children are s+**osed to be *icked +* b& ? *.(. 6+t %er& often *arents are late. The res+lt" at da&'s end) &o+ ha%e so(e an/io+s children and at least one teacher who (+st wait aro+nd for the *arents to arri%e. ,hat to do3 A *air of econo(ists who heard of this dile((a1it t+rned o+t to be a rather co((on one1offered a sol+tion" fine the tard& *arents. ,h&) after all) sho+ld the da&2care center take care of these kids for free3 The econo(ists decided to test their sol+tion b& cond+cting a st+d& of ten da&2care centers in #aifa) Israel. The st+d& lasted twent& weeks) b+t the fine was not introd+ced i((ediatel&. Hor the first fo+r weeks) the econo(ists si(*l& ke*t track of the n+(ber of *arents who ca(e late< there were) on a%erage) eight late *ick+*s *er week *er da&2care center. In the fifth week) the fine was enacted. It was anno+nced that an& *arent arri%ing (ore than ten (in+tes late wo+ld *a& I; *er child for each incident. The fee wo+ld be added to the *arents' (onthl& bill) which was ro+ghl& I;MB. After the fine was enacted) the n+(ber of late *ick+*s *ro(*tl& went-+*. 6efore long there were twent& late *ick+*s *er week) (ore than do+ble the original a%erage. The incenti%e had *lainl& backfired. Econo(ics is) at root) the st+d& of incenti%es" how *eo*le get what the& want) or need) es*eciall& when other *eo*le want or need the sa(e thing. Econo(ists lo%e incenti%es. The& lo%e to drea( the( +* and enact the() st+d& the( and tinker with the(. The t&*ical econo(ist belie%es the world has not &et in%ented a *roble( that he cannot fi/ if gi%en a free hand to design the *ro*er incenti%e sche(e. #is sol+tion (a& not alwa&s be *rett&1it (a& in%ol%e coercion or e/orbitant *enalties or the %iolation of ci%il liberties1b+t the original

*roble() rest ass+red) will be fi/ed. An incenti%e is a b+llet) a le%er) a ke&" an often tin& obEect with astonishing *ower to change a sit+ation. ,e all learn to res*ond to incenti%es) negati%e and *ositi%e) fro( the o+tset of life. If &o+ toddle o%er to the hot sto%e and to+ch it) &o+ b+rn a finger. 6+t if &o+ bring ho(e straight A's fro( school) &o+ get a new bike. If &o+ are s*otted *icking &o+r nose in class) &o+ get ridic+led. 6+t if &o+ (ake the basketball tea() &o+ (o%e +* the social ladder. If &o+ break c+rfew) &o+ get gro+nded. 6+t if &o+ ace &o+r $ATs) &o+ get to go to a good college. If &o+ fl+nk o+t of law school) &o+ ha%e to go to work at &o+r father's ins+rance co(*an&. 6+t if &o+ *erfor( so well that a ri%al co(*an& co(es calling) &o+ beco(e a %ice *resident and no longer ha%e to work for &o+r father. If &o+ beco(e so e/cited abo+t &o+r new %ice *resident Eob that &o+ dri%e ho(e at eight& (*h) &o+ get *+lled o%er b& the *olice and fined I4BB. 6+t if &o+ hit &o+r sales *roEections and collect a &ear2end bon+s) &o+ not onl& aren't worried abo+t the I4BB ticket b+t can also afford to b+& that >iking range &o+'%e alwa&s wanted1and on which &o+r toddler can now b+rn her own finger. An incenti%e is si(*l& a (eans of +rging *eo*le to do (ore of a good thing and less of a bad thing. 6+t (ost incenti%es don't co(e abo+t organicall&. $o(eone1an econo(ist or a *olitician or a *arent1has to in%ent the(. Yo+r three2&ear2old eats all her %egetables for a week3 $he wins a tri* to the to& store. A big steel(aker belches too (+ch s(oke into the air3 The co(*an& is fined for each c+bic foot of *oll+tants o%er the legal li(it. Too (an& A(ericans aren't *a&ing their share of inco(e ta/3 It was the econo(ist 7ilton Hried(an who hel*ed co(e +* with a sol+tion to this one" a+to(atic ta/ withholding fro( e(*lo&ees' *a&checks.

There are three basic fla%ors of incenti%e" econo(ic) social) and (oral. >er& often a single incenti%e sche(e will incl+de all three %arieties. Think abo+t the anti2s(oking ca(*aign of recent &ears. The addition of a I;2*er2*ack .sin ta/0 is a strong econo(ic incenti%e against b+&ing cigarettes. The banning of cigarettes in resta+rants and bars is a *owerf+l social incenti%e. And when the rather Earring (oral incenti%e. $o(e of the (ost co(*elling incenti%es &et in%ented ha%e been *+t in *lace to deter cri(e. !onsidering this fact) it (ight be worthwhile to take a fa(iliar =+estion1wh& is there so (+ch cri(e in (odern societ&31and stand it on its head" wh& isn't there a lot (ore cri(e3 After all) e%er& one of +s reg+larl& *asses +* o**ort+nities to (ai() steal) and defra+d. The chance of going to Eail1thereb& losing &o+r Eob) &o+r ho+se) and &o+r freedo() all of which are essentiall& econo(ic *enalties1is certainl& a strong incenti%e. 6+t when it co(es to cri(e) *eo*le also res*ond to (oral incenti%es Fthe& don't want to do so(ething the& consider wrongG and social incenti%es Fthe& don't want to be seen b& others as doing so(ething wrongG. Hor certain t&*es of (isbeha%ior) social incenti%es are terribl& *owerf+l. In an echo of #ester Pr&nne's scarlet letter) (an& A(erican cities now fight *rostit+tion with a .sha(ing0 offensi%e) *osting *ict+res of con%icted Eohns Fand *rostit+tesG on websites or on local2access tele%ision. ,hich is a (ore horrif&ing deterrent" a IDBB fine for soliciting a *rostit+te or the tho+ght of &o+r friends and fa(il& ogling &o+ on www.#ookersAnd5ohns.co(. $o thro+gh a co(*licated) ha*haCard) and constantl& readE+sted web of econo(ic) social) and (oral incenti%es) (odern societ& does its best to (ilitate against cri(e. $o(e *eo*le wo+ld arg+e that we don't do a .$. go%ern(ent asserts that terrorists raise (one& b& selling black2(arket cigarettes) that acts as a

%er& good Eob. 6+t taking the long %iew) that is clearl& not tr+e. !onsider the historical trend in ho(icide Fnot incl+ding warsG) which is both the (ost reliabl& (eas+red cri(e and the best baro(eter of a societ&'s o%erall cri(e rate. These statistics) co(*iled b& the cri(inologist 7an+el Eisner) track the historical ho(icide le%els in fi%e E+ro*ean regions.

#O7I!IDE$ F*er 4BB)BBB Peo*leG

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:ER7ANY AND ITALY $!ANDINA>IA $,ITJERLAND n.a. ;K.B DA.B

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The stee* decline of these n+(bers o%er the cent+ries s+ggests that) for one of the gra%est h+(an concerns1getting (+rdered1the incenti%es that we collecti%el& cook +* are working better and better. $o what was wrong with the incenti%e at the Israeli da&2care centers3 Yo+ ha%e *robabl& alread& g+essed that the I; fine was si(*l& too s(all. Hor that *rice) a *arent with one child co+ld afford to be late e%er& da& and onl& *a& an e/tra IAB each (onth1E+st one2si/th of the base fee. As bab&sitting goes) that's *rett& chea*. ,hat if the fine had been set at I4BB instead of I;3 That wo+ld ha%e likel& *+t an end to the late *ick+*s) tho+gh it wo+ld ha%e also engendered *lent& of ill will. FAn& incenti%e is inherentl& a trade2off< the trick is to balance the e/tre(es.G 6+t there was another *roble( with the da&2care center fine. It s+bstit+ted an econo(ic incenti%e Fthe I; *enalt&G for a (oral incenti%e Fthe g+ilt that *arents were s+**osed to feel when the& ca(e lateG. Hor E+st a few dollars each da&) *arents co+ld b+& off their g+ilt. H+rther(ore) the s(all siCe of the fine sent a signal to the *arents that late *ick+*s weren't s+ch a big *roble(. If the da&2care center s+ffers onl& I; worth of *ain for each late *ick+*) wh& bother to

c+t short the tennis ga(e3 Indeed) when the econo(ists eli(inated the I; fine in the se%enteenth week of their st+d&) the n+(ber of late2 arri%ing *arents didn't change. Now the& co+ld arri%e late) *a& no fine) and feel no g+ilt. $+ch is the strange and *owerf+l nat+re of incenti%es. A slight tweak can *rod+ce drastic and often +nforeseen res+lts. Tho(as 5efferson noted this while reflecting on the tin& incenti%e that led to the 6oston Tea Part& and) in t+rn) the A(erican Re%ol+tion" .$o inscr+table is the arrange(ent of ca+ses and conse=+ences in this world that a two2 *enn& d+t& on tea) +nE+stl& i(*osed in a se=+estered *art of it) changes the condition of all its inhabitants.0 In the 4@KBs) researchers cond+cted a st+d& that) like the Israeli da&2 care st+d&) *itted a (oral incenti%e against an econo(ic incenti%e. In this case) the& wanted to learn abo+t the (oti%ation behind blood donations. Their disco%er&" when *eo*le are gi%en a s(all sti*end for donating blood rather than si(*l& being *raised for their altr+is() the& tend to donate less blood. The sti*end t+rned a noble act of charit& into a *ainf+l wa& to (ake a few dollars) and it wasn't worth it. ,hat if the blood donors had been offered an incenti%e of IDB) or IDBB) or ID)BBB3 $+rel& the n+(ber of donors wo+ld ha%e changed dra(aticall&. 6+t so(ething else wo+ld ha%e changed dra(aticall& as well) for e%er& incenti%e has its dark side. If a *int of blood were s+ddenl& worth ID)BBB) &o+ can be s+re that *lent& of *eo*le wo+ld take note. The& (ight literall& steal blood at knife*oint. The& (ight *ass off *ig blood as their own. The& (ight circ+(%ent donation li(its b& +sing fake IDs. ,hate%er the incenti%e) whate%er the sit+ation) dishonest *eo*le will tr& to gain an ad%antage b& whate%er (eans necessar&.

Or) as ,. !. Hields once said" a thing worth ha%ing is a thing worth cheating for.

,ho cheats3 ,ell) E+st abo+t an&one) if the stakes are right. Yo+ (ight sa& to &o+rself) I don't cheat) regardless of the stakes. And then &o+ (ight re(e(ber the ti(e &o+ cheated on) sa&) a board ga(e. Last week. Or the golf ball &o+ n+dged o+t of its bad lie. Or the ti(e &o+ reall& wanted a bagel in the office break roo( b+t co+ldn't co(e +* with the dollar &o+ were s+**osed to dro* in the coffee can. And then took the bagel an&wa&. And told &o+rself &o+'d *a& do+ble the ne/t ti(e. And didn't. Hor e%er& cle%er *erson who goes to the tro+ble of creating an incenti%e sche(e) there is an ar(& of *eo*le) cle%er and otherwise) who will ine%itabl& s*end e%en (ore ti(e tr&ing to beat it. !heating (a& or (a& not be h+(an nat+re) b+t it is certainl& a *ro(inent feat+re in E+st abo+t e%er& h+(an endea%or. !heating is a *ri(ordial econo(ic act" getting (ore for less. $o it isn't E+st the boldface na(es 1inside2trading !EOs and *ill2*o**ing ball*la&ers and *erk2ab+sing *oliticians1who cheat. It is the waitress who *ockets her ti*s instead of *ooling the(. It is the ,al27art *a&roll (anager who goes into the co(*+ter and sha%es his e(*lo&ees' ho+rs to (ake his own *erfor(ance look better. It is the third grader who) worried abo+t not (aking it to the fo+rth grade) co*ies test answers fro( the kid sitting ne/t to hi(. $o(e cheating lea%es barel& a shadow of e%idence. In other cases) the e%idence is (assi%e. !onsider what ha**ened one s*ring e%ening at

(idnight

in

4@MK"

se%en

(illion

A(erican

children

s+ddenl&

disa**eared. The worst kidna**ing wa%e in histor&3 #ardl&. It was the night of A*ril 4D) and the Internal Re%en+e $er%ice had E+st changed a r+le. Instead of (erel& listing each de*endent child) ta/ filers were now re=+ired to *ro%ide a $ocial $ec+rit& n+(ber for each child. $+ddenl&) se%en (illion children1children who had e/isted onl& as *hanto( e/e(*tions on the *re%io+s &ear's 4B?B for(s1%anished) re*resenting abo+t one in ten of all de*endent children in the $tates. The incenti%e for those cheating ta/*a&ers was =+ite clear. The sa(e for the waitress) the *a&roll (anager) and the third grader. 6+t what abo+t that third grader's teacher3 7ight she ha%e an incenti%e to cheat3 And if so) how wo+ld she do it3 nited

I(agine now that instead of r+nning a da&2care center in #aifa) &o+ are r+nning the !hicago P+blic $chools) a s&ste( that ed+cates ?BB)BBB st+dents each &ear. The (ost %olatile c+rrent debate a(ong A(erican school

ad(inistrators) teachers) *arents) and st+dents concerns .high2stakes0 testing. The stakes are considered high beca+se instead of si(*l& testing st+dents to (eas+re their *rogress) schools are increasingl& held acco+ntable for the res+lts. The federal go%ern(ent (andated high2stakes testing as *art of the No !hild Left 6ehind law) signed b& President 6+sh in 8BB8. 6+t e%en before that law) (ost states ga%e ann+al standardiCed tests to st+dents in ele(entar& and secondar& school. Twent& states rewarded

indi%id+al schools for good test scores or dra(atic i(*ro%e(ent< thirt&2two states sanctioned the schools that didn't do well. The !hicago P+blic $chool s&ste( e(braced high2stakes testing in 4@@A. nder the new *olic&) a school with low reading scores wo+ld be *laced on *robation and face the threat of being sh+t down) its staff to be dis(issed or reassigned. The !P$ also did awa& with what is known as social *ro(otion. In the *ast) onl& a dra(aticall& ine*t or diffic+lt st+dent was held back a grade. Now) in order to be *ro(oted) e%er& st+dent in third) si/th) and eighth grade had to (anage a (ini(+( score on the standardiCed) (+lti*le2choice e/a( known as the Iowa Test of 6asic $kills. Ad%ocates of high2stakes testing arg+e that it raises the standards of learning and gi%es st+dents (ore incenti%e to st+d&. Also) if the test *re%ents *oor st+dents fro( ad%ancing witho+t (erit) the& won't clog +* the higher grades and slow down good st+dents. O**onents) (eanwhile) worr& that certain st+dents will be +nfairl& *enaliCed if the& don't ha**en to test well) and that teachers (a& concentrate on the test to*ics at the e/cl+sion of (ore i(*ortant lessons. $choolchildren) of co+rse) ha%e had incenti%e to cheat for as long as there ha%e been tests. 6+t high2stakes testing has so radicall& changed the incenti%es for teachers that the& too now ha%e added reason to cheat. ,ith high2stakes testing) a teacher whose st+dents test *oorl& can be cens+red or *assed o%er for a raise or *ro(otion. If the entire school does *oorl&) federal f+nding can be withheld< if the school is *+t on *robation) the teacher stands to be fired. #igh2stakes testing also *resents teachers with so(e *ositi%e incenti%es. If her st+dents do well eno+gh) she (ight find herself *raised) *ro(oted) and e%en richer" the state of !alifornia at one *oint introd+ced bon+ses of I8D)BBB for teachers who *rod+ced big test2score gains.

And if a teacher were to s+r%e& this newl& incenti%iCed landsca*e and consider so(ehow inflating her st+dents' scores) she E+st (ight be *ers+aded b& one final incenti%e" teacher cheating is rarel& looked for) hardl& e%er detected) and E+st abo+t ne%er *+nished. #ow (ight a teacher go abo+t cheating3 There are an& n+(ber of *ossibilities) fro( the braCen to the so*histicated. A fifth2grade st+dent in Oakland recentl& ca(e ho(e fro( school and gail& told her (other that her s+*er2nice teacher had written the answers to the state e/a( right there on the chalkboard. $+ch instances are certainl& rare) for *lacing &o+r fate in the hands of thirt& *re*+bescent witnesses doesn't see( like a risk that e%en the worst teacher wo+ld take. FThe Oakland teacher was d+l& fired.G There are (ore s+btle wa&s to inflate st+dents' scores. A teacher can si(*l& gi%e st+dents e/tra ti(e to co(*lete the test. If she obtains a co*& of the e/a( earl&1that is) illegiti(atel&1she can *re*are the( for s*ecific =+estions. 7ore broadl&) she can .teach to the test)0 basing her lesson *lans on =+estions fro( *ast &ears' e/a(s) which isn't considered cheating b+t certainl& %iolates the s*irit of the test. $ince these tests all ha%e (+lti*le2choice answers) with no *enalt& for wrong g+esses) a teacher (ight instr+ct her st+dents to rando(l& fill in e%er& blank as the clock is winding down) *erha*s inserting a long string of 6s or an alternating *attern of 6s and !s. $he (ight e%en fill in the blanks for the( after the&'%e left the roo(. 6+t if a teacher reall& wanted to cheat1and (ake it worth her while1 she (ight collect her st+dents' answer sheets and) in the ho+r or so before t+rning the( in to be read b& an electronic scanner) erase the wrong answers and fill in correct ones. FAnd &o+ alwa&s tho+ght that no. 8 *encil was for the children to change their answers.G If this kind of teacher cheating is tr+l& going on) how (ight it be detected3

To catch a cheater) it hel*s to think like one. If &o+ were willing to erase &o+r st+dents' wrong answers and fill in correct ones) &o+ *robabl& wo+ldn't want to change too (an& wrong answers. That wo+ld clearl& be a ti*2off. Yo+ *robabl& wo+ldn't e%en want to change answers on e%er& st+dent's test1another ti*2off. Nor) in all likelihood) wo+ld &o+ ha%e eno+gh ti(e) beca+se the answer sheets are t+rned in soon after the test is o%er. $o what &o+ (ight do is select a string of eight or ten consec+ti%e =+estions and fill in the correct answers for) sa&) one2half or two2thirds of &o+r st+dents. Yo+ co+ld easil& (e(oriCe a short *attern of correct answers) and it wo+ld be a lot faster to erase and change that *attern than to go thro+gh each st+dent's answer sheet indi%id+all&. Yo+ (ight e%en think to foc+s &o+r acti%it& toward the end of the test) where the =+estions tend to be harder than the earlier =+estions. In that wa&) &o+'d be (ost likel& to s+bstit+te correct answers for wrong ones. If econo(ics is a science *ri(aril& concerned with incenti%es) it is also 1fort+natel&1a science with statistical tools to (eas+re how *eo*le res*ond to those incenti%es. All &o+ need are so(e data. In this case) the !hicago P+blic $chool s&ste( obliged. It (ade a%ailable a database of the test answers for e%er& !P$ st+dent fro( third grade thro+gh se%enth grade fro( 4@@; to 8BBB. This a(o+nts to ro+ghl& ;B)BBB st+dents *er grade *er &ear) (ore than KBB)BBB sets of test answers) and nearl& 4BB (illion indi%id+al answers. The data) organiCed b& classroo() incl+ded each st+dent's =+estion2b&2=+estion answer strings for reading and (ath tests. FThe act+al *a*er answer sheets were not incl+ded< the& were habit+all& shredded soon after a test.G The data also incl+ded so(e infor(ation abo+t each teacher and de(ogra*hic infor(ation for e%er& st+dent) as well as his or her *ast

and f+t+re test scores1which wo+ld *ro%e a ke& ele(ent in detecting the teacher cheating. Now it was ti(e to constr+ct an algorith( that co+ld tease so(e concl+sions fro( this (ass of data. ,hat (ight a cheating teacher's classroo( look like3 The first thing to search for wo+ld be +n+s+al answer *atterns in a gi%en classroo(" blocks of identical answers) for instance) es*eciall& a(ong the harder =+estions. If ten %er& bright st+dents Fas indicated b& *ast and f+t+re test scoresG ga%e correct answers to the e/a('s first fi%e =+estions Ft&*icall& the easiest onesG) s+ch an identical block sho+ldn't be considered s+s*icio+s. 6+t if ten *oor st+dents ga%e correct answers to the last fi%e =+estions on the e/a( Fthe hardest onesG) that's worth looking into. Another red flag wo+ld be a strange *attern within an& one st+dent's e/a(1s+ch as getting the hard =+estions right while (issing the eas& ones1es*eciall& when (eas+red against the tho+sands of st+dents in other classroo(s who scored si(ilarl& on the sa(e test. H+rther(ore) the algorith( wo+ld seek o+t a classroo( f+ll of st+dents who *erfor(ed far better than their *ast scores wo+ld ha%e *redicted and who then went on to score significantl& lower the following &ear. A dra(atic one2&ear s*ike in test scores (ight initiall& be attrib+ted to a good teacher< b+t with a dra(atic fall to follow) there's a strong likelihood that the s*ike was bro+ght abo+t b& artificial (eans. !onsider now the answer strings fro( the st+dents in two si/th2grade !hicago classroo(s who took the identical (ath test. Each horiContal row re*resents one st+dent's answers. The letter a) b) c) or d indicates a correct answer< a n+(ber indicates a wrong answer) with 4 corres*onding to a) 8 corres*onding to b) and so on. A Cero re*resents an answer that was left blank. One of these classroo(s al(ost

certainl& had a cheating teacher and the other did not. Tr& to tell the difference1altho+gh be forewarned that it's not eas& with the naked e&e. !lassroo( A

448a?a;?8cb84?dBBB4acd8?a;a48dadbcb?aBBBBBBB d?a8;?4cacbddad;4?8a8;??a8ac8;?84cBBadb?b;cb 4b8a;?d?ac?8d8;b4?4acd8?a;a48dadbcb?a84;?4?4 dbaab;dcacb4dadbc?8ac8cc;4B48dadbcb?adb?BBBB d48??;d?;8;8d;8;8;c84;c88d8c8;8;?c;;8db?b;BB db8abad4acbdda848b4acd8?a;a48dadbcb?BBBBBBBB d?aab848?cbddadbcb4a?8cca;?48dadbcb?8;4;?bc4 4b;;b?d?a8b4dadbc;ca88cBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB d?;a;a8?acb4d;8b?48acd8?a;a48dadbcb?884?;bcB ;4;a;ad4ac;d8a8;?;488;cBBBB48dadbcb?BBBBBBBB db8a;;dcacbd;8d;4;c844?8;8;cc;BBBBBBBBBBBBBB d?;ab?d4ac;dd?;?848?Bd8?a;a48dadbcb?BBBBBBBB db88;a8?acb44a;b8?cacd48a8?4cdadbcb?adb?b;BB db?abadcacb4dad;4?4ac848a;a4c;a4??ba8db?4b?; 44?8;?Bc8cbddadb?b4acd8?a;a48dadbcb?;d4;;bc? 84?ab?dc?cbdd;4b4b884;c?ad?48dadbcb?adbBBBBB 4?8;b?d?a8;d8?4;4?4;8;?48;a8?;a8?4;a84??4;?; ;b;ab?d4?c;d8ad?cbcac4cBB;a48dadbcb?adb?BBBB

dba8ba84ac;d8ad;c?c?cd?Ba;a48dadbcb?BBBBBBBB d488ba8cacbd4a4;844a8dB8a8?48dBdbcb?adb?b;cB 4??a;adc?cbddadbcbc8c8cc?;a48dadbcb?844ab;?; d?;aba;cacbddadbcbca?8c8a;848dadbcb?8;??b;cb !lassroo( 6

db;a?;4?88bd4;4b??4;cd?88a4acda;;8;?8d;ab?c? d4aa4a44acb8d;dbc4ca88c8;8?8c;a4?8b;adb8?;c4 d?8a48d8a?b4d;8b84ca8;48a;?44dBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ;b8a;?;??c;8d84b448;cdcBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB ;?aabad48cbdd;d?c4ca448cad8ccdBBBBBBBBBBBBBB d;;a;?;4a8b8d8d??b8acd8cad8c888;b?BBBBBBBBBB 8;aa;8d8a4bd8?;44?4;?8c4;d848d8;;c;?a;b;bBBB d;88;?d?a4bdd8;b8?8a88c8a4a4cda8b4baa;;aBBBB d;aab8;c?cbddadb8;c;88c8a88888;8;8b??;b8?bc ;d4;a4?;4;c;4d?8b4?c?84c?8;;8cd88?8b;?;;a;;?; d4;a;ad488b4da8b448?8dc4a;a484BBBBBBBBBBBBBB d48a;ad4a4;d8;d;cb8a84ccada8?d84;4b??BBBBBBB ;4?a4;;c?cbd4?84?4ca?8?cad;?c488?4;88;ba?b?B d?8a;adcacbddadbc?8ac8c8ada8cda;?4baa;b8?;84 db44;?dc8cb8dadb8?c?48c4ada8c;a;?4ba8BBBBBBB d4;?4?;4acbddad;c?c84;?48da88d;d44;8a4;??b4b

4ba?4a84a4b8dadb8?ca88c4ada8cd;8?4;8BBBBBBBB dbaa;;d8a8bddadbcbca44c8a8accda4b8ba8BBBBBBB

If &o+ g+essed that classroo( A was the cheating classroo() congrat+lations. #ere again are the answer strings fro( classroo( A) now reordered b& a co(*+ter that has been asked to a**l& the cheating algorith( and seek o+t s+s*icio+s *atterns. !lassroo( A F,ith cheating algorith( a**liedG

4. 448a?a;?8cb84?dBBB4acd8?a;a48dadbcb?aBBBBBBB 8. 4b8a;?d?ac?8d8;b4?4acd8?a;a48dadbcb?a84;?4?4 ;. db8abad4acbdda848b4acd8?a;a48dadbcb?BBBBBBBB ?. d?;a;a8?acb4d;8b?48acd8?a;a48dadbcb?884?;bcB D. d?;ab?d4ac;dd?;?848?Bd8?a;a48dadbcb?BBBBBBBB A. 44?8;?Bc8cbddadb?b4acd8?a;a48dadbcb?;d4;;bc? K. dba8ba84ac;d8ad;c?c?cd?Ba;a48dadbcb?BBBBBBBB M. 4??a;adc?cbddadbcbc8c8cc?;a48dadbcb?844ab;?; @. ;b;ab?d4?c;d8ad?cbcac4cBB;a48dadbcb?adb?BBBB 4B. d?;aba;cacbddadbcbca?8c8a;848dadbcb?8;??b;cb 44. 84?ab?dc?cbdd;4b4b884;c?ad?48dadbcb?adbBBBBB 48. ;4;a;ad4ac;d8a8;?;488;cBBBB48dadbcb?BBBBBBBB 4;. d?aab848?cbddadbcb4a?8cca;?48dadbcb?8;4;?bc4

4?. dbaab;dcacb4dadbc?8ac8cc;4B48dadbcb?adb?BBBB 4D. db88;a8?acb44a;b8?cacd48a8?4cdadbcb?adb?b;BB 4A. d488ba8cacbd4a4;844a8dB8a8?48dBdbcb?adb?b;cB 4K. 4?8;b?d?a8;d8?4;4?4;8;?48;a8?;a8?4;a84??4;?; 4M. db?abadcacb4dad;4?4ac848a;a4c;a4??ba8db?4b?; 4@. db8a;;dcacbd;8d;4;c844?8;8;cc;BBBBBBBBBBBBBB 8B. 4b;;b?d?a8b4dadbc;ca88cBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 84. d48??;d?;8;8d;8;8;c84;c88d8c8;8;?c;;8db?b;BB 88. d?a8;?4cacbddad;4?8a8;??a8ac8;?84cBBadb?b;cb

Take a look at the answers in bold. Did fifteen o+t of twent&2two st+dents so(ehow (anage to reel off the sa(e si/ consec+ti%e correct answers Fthe d2a2d2b2c2b stringG all b& the(sel%es3 There are at least fo+r reasons this is +nlikel&. One" those =+estions) co(ing near the end of the test) were harder than the earlier =+estions. Two" these were (ainl& s+b*ar st+dents to begin with) few of who( got si/ consec+ti%e right answers elsewhere on the test) (aking it all the (ore +nlikel& the& wo+ld get right the sa(e si/ hard =+estions. Three" +* to this *oint in the test) the fifteen st+dents' answers were %irt+all& +ncorrelated. Ho+r" three of the st+dents Fn+(bers 4) @) and 48G left at least one answer blank before the s+s*icio+s string and then ended the test with another string of blanks. This s+ggests that a long) +nbroken string of blank answers was broken not b& the st+dent b+t b& the teacher.

There is another oddit& abo+t the s+s*icio+s answer string. On nine of the fifteen tests) the si/ correct answers are *receded b& another identical string) ;2a2428) which incl+des three of fo+r incorrect answers. And on all fifteen tests) the si/ correct answers are followed b& the sa(e incorrect answer) a ?. ,h& on earth wo+ld a cheating teacher go to the tro+ble of erasing a st+dent's test sheet and then fill in the wrong answer3 Perha*s she is (erel& being strategic. In case she is ca+ght and ha+led into the *rinci*al's office) she co+ld *oint to the wrong answers as *roof that she didn't cheat. Or *erha*s1and this is a less charitable b+t E+st as likel& answer1she doesn't know the right answers herself. F,ith standardiCed tests) the teacher is t&*icall& not gi%en an answer ke&.G If this is the case) then we ha%e a *rett& good cl+e as to wh& her st+dents are in need of inflated grades in the first *lace" the& ha%e a bad teacher. Another indication of teacher cheating in classroo( A is the class's o%erall *erfor(ance. As si/th graders who were taking the test in the eighth (onth of the acade(ic &ear) these st+dents needed to achie%e an a%erage score of A.M to be considered +* to national standards. FHifth graders taking the test in the eighth (onth of the &ear needed to score D.M) se%enth graders K.M) and so on.G The st+dents in classroo( A a%eraged D.M on their si/th2grade tests) which is a f+ll grade le%el below where the& sho+ld be. $o *lainl& these are *oor st+dents. A &ear earlier) howe%er) these st+dents did e%en worse) a%eraging E+st ?.4 on their fifth2grade tests. Instead of i(*ro%ing b& one f+ll *oint between fifth and si/th grade) as wo+ld be e/*ected) the& i(*ro%ed b& 4.K *oints) nearl& two grades' worth. 6+t this (irac+lo+s i(*ro%e(ent was short2li%ed. ,hen these si/th2grade st+dents reached se%enth grade) the& a%eraged D.D1(ore than two grade le%els below standard and

e%en worse than the& did in si/th grade. !onsider the erratic &ear2to2 &ear scores of three *artic+lar st+dents fro( classroo( A"

KT# :RADE $!ORE DT# :RADE $!ORE AT# :RADE $!ORE $t+dent ; ;.B $t+dent A ;.A $t+dent 4? ;.M A.D A.; K.4 D.4 ?.@ D.A

The three2&ear scores fro( classroo( 6) (eanwhile) are also *oor b+t at least indicate an honest effort" ?.8) D.4) and A.B. $o an entire roo(f+l of children in classroo( A s+ddenl& got %er& s(art one &ear and %er& di( the ne/t) or (ore likel&) their si/th2grade teacher worked so(e (agic with a no. 8 *encil. There are two noteworth& *oints to be (ade abo+t the children in classroo( A) tangential to the cheating itself. The first is that the& are ob%io+sl& in terrible acade(ic sha*e) which (akes the( the %er& children who( high2stakes testing is *ro(oted as hel*ing the (ost. The second *oint is that these st+dents wo+ld be in for a terrible shock once the& reached the se%enth grade. All the& knew was that the& had been s+ccessf+ll& *ro(oted d+e to their test scores. FNo child left behind) indeed.G The& weren't the ones who artificiall& Eacked +* their scores< the& *robabl& e/*ected to do great in the se%enth grade1and then the& failed (iserabl&. This (a& be the cr+elest twist &et in high2 stakes testing. A cheating teacher (a& tell herself that she is hel*ing

her st+dents) b+t the fact is that she wo+ld a**ear far (ore concerned with hel*ing herself. An anal&sis of the entire !hicago data re%eals e%idence of teacher cheating in (ore than two h+ndred classroo(s *er &ear) ro+ghl& D *ercent of the total. This is a conser%ati%e esti(ate) since the algorith( was able to identif& onl& the (ost egregio+s for( of cheating1in which teachers s&ste(aticall& changed st+dents' answers 1and not the (an& s+btler wa&s a teacher (ight cheat. In a recent st+d& a(ong North !arolina schoolteachers) so(e ;D *ercent of the res*ondents said the& had witnessed their colleag+es cheating in so(e fashion) whether b& gi%ing st+dents e/tra ti(e) s+ggesting answers) or (an+all& changing st+dents' answers. ,hat are the characteristics of a cheating teacher3 The !hicago data show that (ale and fe(ale teachers are abo+t e=+all& *rone to cheating. A cheating teacher tends to be &o+nger and less =+alified than a%erage. $he is also (ore likel& to cheat after her incenti%es change. 6eca+se the !hicago data ran fro( 4@@; to 8BBB) it bracketed the introd+ction of high2stakes testing in 4@@A. $+re eno+gh) there was a *rono+nced s*ike in cheating in 4@@A. Nor was the cheating rando(. It was the teachers in the lowest2scoring classroo(s who were (ost likel& to cheat. It sho+ld also be noted that the I8D)BBB bon+s for !alifornia teachers was e%ent+all& re%oked) in *art beca+se of s+s*icions that too (+ch of the (one& was going to cheaters. Not e%er& res+lt of the !hicago cheating anal&sis was so do+r. In addition to detecting cheaters) the algorith( co+ld also identif& the best teachers in the school s&ste(. A good teacher's i(*act was nearl& as distincti%e as a cheater's. Instead of getting rando( answers correct) her st+dents wo+ld show real i(*ro%e(ent on the easier t&*es of =+estions the& had *re%io+sl& (issed) an indication of act+al

learning. And a good teacher's st+dents carried o%er all their gains into the ne/t grade. 7ost acade(ic anal&ses of this sort tend to lang+ish) +nread) on a d+st& librar& shelf. 6+t in earl& 8BB8) the new !EO of the !hicago P+blic $chools) Arne D+ncan) contacted the st+d&'s a+thors. #e didn't want to *rotest or h+sh +* their findings. Rather) he wanted to (ake s+re that the teachers identified b& the algorith( as cheaters were tr+l& cheating1and then do so(ething abo+t it. D+ncan was an +nlikel& candidate to hold s+ch a *owerf+l Eob. #e was onl& thirt&2si/ when a**ointed) a oneti(e acade(ic all2A(erican at #ar%ard who later *la&ed *ro basketball in A+stralia. #e had s*ent E+st three &ears with the !P$1and ne%er in a Eob i(*ortant eno+gh to ha%e his own secretar&1before beco(ing its !EO. It didn't h+rt that D+ncan had grown +* in !hicago. #is father ta+ght *s&cholog& at the ni%ersit& of !hicago< his (other ran an after2school *rogra( for fort& &ears) witho+t *a&) in a *oor neighborhood. ,hen D+ncan was a bo&) his afterschool *la&(ates were the +nder2*ri%ileged kids his (other cared for. $o when he took o%er the *+blic schools) his allegiance la& (ore with schoolchildren and their fa(ilies than with teachers and their +nion. The best wa& to get rid of cheating teachers) D+ncan had decided) was to read(inister the standardiCed e/a(. #e onl& had the reso+rces to retest 48B classroo(s) howe%er) so he asked the creators of the cheating algorith( to hel* choose which classroo(s to test. #ow co+ld those 48B retests be +sed (ost effecti%el&3 It (ight ha%e see(ed sensible to retest onl& the classroo(s that likel& had a cheating teacher. 6+t e%en if their retest scores were lower) the teachers co+ld arg+e that the st+dents did worse (erel& beca+se the&

were told that the scores wo+ldn't co+nt in their official record1which) in fact) all retested st+dents wo+ld be told. To (ake the retest res+lts con%incing) so(e non2cheaters were needed as a control gro+*. The best control gro+*3 The classroo(s shown b& the algorith( to ha%e the best teachers) in which big gains were tho+ght to ha%e been legiti(atel& attained. If those classroo(s held their gains while the classroo(s with a s+s*ected cheater lost gro+nd) the cheating teachers co+ld hardl& arg+e that their st+dents did worse onl& beca+se the scores wo+ldn't co+nt. $o a blend was settled +*on. 7ore than half of the 48B retested classroo(s were those s+s*ected of ha%ing a cheating teacher. The re(ainder were di%ided between the s+**osedl& e/cellent teachers Fhigh scores b+t no s+s*icio+s answer *atternsG and) as a f+rther control) classroo(s with (ediocre scores and no s+s*icio+s answers. The retest was gi%en a few weeks after the original e/a(. The children were not told the reason for the retest. Neither were the teachers. 6+t the& (a& ha%e gotten the idea when it was anno+nced that !P$ officials) not the teachers) wo+ld ad(inister the test. The teachers were asked to sta& in the classroo( with their st+dents) b+t the& wo+ld not be allowed to e%en to+ch the answer sheets. The res+lts were as co(*elling as the cheating algorith( had *redicted. In the classroo(s chosen as controls) where no cheating was s+s*ected) scores sta&ed abo+t the sa(e or e%en rose. In contrast) the st+dents with the teachers identified as cheaters scored far worse) b& an a%erage of (ore than a f+ll grade le%el. As a res+lt) the !hicago P+blic $chool s&ste( began to fire its cheating teachers. The e%idence was onl& strong eno+gh to get rid of a doCen of the() b+t the (an& other cheaters had been d+l& warned. The final

o+tco(e of the !hicago st+d& is f+rther testa(ent to the *ower of incenti%es" the following &ear) cheating b& teachers fell (ore than ;B *ercent.

Yo+ (ight think that the so*histication of teachers who cheat wo+ld increase along with the le%el of schooling. 6+t an e/a( gi%en at the ni%ersit& of :eorgia in the fall of 8BB4 dis*+tes that idea. The co+rse was called !oaching Princi*les and $trategies of 6asketball) and the final grade was based on a single e/a( that had twent& =+estions A(ong the =+estions"

#ow (an& hal%es are in a college basketball ga(e3 4. 4 8. 8 ;. ; ?. ? #ow (an& *oints does a ;2*t. field goal acco+nt for in a basketball ga(e3 4. 4 8. 8 ;. ; ?. ? ,hat is the na(e of the e/a( which all high school seniors in the $tate of :eorgia (+st *ass3 4. E&e E/a(.

8. #ow Do the :rits Taste E/a(. ;. 6+g !ontrol E/a(. ?. :eorgia E/it E/a( In &o+r o*inion) who is the best Di%ision I assistant coach in the co+ntr&3 4. Ron 5irsa. 8. 5ohn Pel*hre&. ;. 5i( #arrick 5r. ?. $te%e ,oEciechowski If &o+ are st+(*ed b& the final =+estion) it (ight hel* to know that !oaching Princi*les was ta+ght b& 5i( #arrick 5r.) an assistant coach with the +ni%ersit&'s basketball tea(. It (ight also hel* to know that his father) 5i( #arrick $r.) was the head basketball coach. Not s+r*risingl&) !oaching Princi*les was a fa%orite co+rse a(ong *la&ers on the #arricks' tea(. E%er& st+dent in the class recei%ed an A. Not long afterward) both #arricks were relie%ed of their coaching d+ties.

If it strikes &o+ as disgracef+l that !hicago schoolteachers and ni%ersit& of :eorgia *rofessors will cheat1a teacher) after all) is (eant to instill %al+es along with the facts1then the tho+ght of cheating a(ong s+(o wrestlers (a& also be dee*l& dist+rbing. In 5a*an) s+(o is not onl& the national s*ort b+t also a re*ositor& of the co+ntr&'s religio+s) (ilitar&) and historical e(otion. ,ith its *+rification rit+als and its i(*erial roots) s+(o is sacrosanct in a wa& that A(erican s*orts can ne%er be. Indeed) s+(o is said to be less abo+t co(*etition than abo+t honor itself.

It is tr+e that s*orts and cheating go hand in hand. That's beca+se cheating is (ore co((on in the face of a bright2line incenti%e Fthe line between winning and losing) for instanceG than with a (+rk& incenti%e. Ol&(*ic s*rinters and weightlifters) c&clists in the To+r de Hrance) football line(en and baseball sl+ggers" the& ha%e all been shown to swallow whate%er *ill or *owder (a& gi%e the( an edge. It is not onl& the *artici*ants who cheat. !age& baseball (anagers tr& to steal an o**onent's signs. In the 8BB8 ,inter Ol&(*ic fig+re2skating co(*etition) a Hrench E+dge and a R+ssian E+dge were ca+ght tr&ing to swa* %otes to (ake s+re their skaters (edaled. FThe (an acc+sed of orchestrating the %ote swa*) a re*+ted R+ssian (ob boss na(ed Ali(Chan Tokhtakho+no%) was also s+s*ected of rigging bea+t& *ageants in 7oscow.G An athlete who gets ca+ght cheating is generall& conde(ned) b+t (ost fans at least a**reciate his (oti%e" he wanted so badl& to win that he bent the r+les. FAs the baseball *la&er 7ark :race once said) .If &o+'re not cheating) &o+'re not tr&ing.0G An athlete who cheats to lose) (eanwhile) is consigned to a dee* circle of s*orting hell. The 4@4@ !hicago ,hite $o/) who cons*ired with ga(blers to throw the ,orld $eries Fand are therefore known fore%er as the 6lack $o/G) retain a stench of ini=+it& a(ong e%en cas+al baseball fans. The !it& !ollege of New York's cha(*ionshi* basketball tea() once belo%ed for its s(art and scra**& *la&) was instantl& re%iled when it was disco%ered in 4@D4 that se%eral *la&ers had taken (ob (one& to sha%e *oints1 intentionall& (issing baskets to hel* ga(blers beat the *oint s*read. Re(e(ber Terr& 7allo&) the tor(ented for(er bo/er *la&ed b& 7arlon 6rando in On the ,aterfront3 As 7allo& saw it) all his tro+bles ste((ed fro( the one fight in which he took a di%e. Otherwise) he co+ld ha%e had class< he co+ld ha%e been a contender.

If cheating to lose is s*ort's *re(ier sin) and if s+(o wrestling is the *re(ier s*ort of a great nation) cheating to lose co+ldn't *ossibl& e/ist in s+(o. !o+ld it3 Once again) the data can tell the stor&. As with the !hicago school tests) the data set +nder consideration here is s+r*assingl& large" the res+lts fro( nearl& e%er& official s+(o (atch a(ong the to* rank of 5a*anese s+(o wrestlers between 5an+ar& 4@M@ and 5an+ar& 8BBB) a total of ;8)BBB bo+ts fo+ght b& 8M4 different wrestlers. The incenti%e sche(e that r+les s+(o is intricate and e/traordinaril& *owerf+l. Each wrestler (aintains a ranking that affects e%er& slice of his life" how (+ch (one& he (akes) how large an ento+rage he carries) how (+ch he gets to eat) slee*) and otherwise take ad%antage of his s+ccess. The si/t&2si/ highest2ranked wrestlers in 5a*an) co(*rising the (ak++chi and E+r&o di%isions) (ake +* the s+(o elite. A wrestler near the to* of this elite *&ra(id (a& earn (illions and is treated like ro&alt&. An& wrestler in the to* fort& earns at least I4KB)BBB a &ear. The se%entieth2ranked wrestler in 5a*an) (eanwhile) earns onl& I4D)BBB a &ear. Life isn't %er& sweet o+tside the elite. Low2 ranked wrestlers (+st tend to their s+*eriors) *re*aring their (eals and cleaning their =+arters and e%en soa*ing +* their hardest2to2reach bod& *arts. $o ranking is e%er&thing. A wrestler's ranking is based on his *erfor(ance in the elite to+rna(ents that are held si/ ti(es a &ear. Each wrestler has fifteen bo+ts *er to+rna(ent) one *er da& o%er fifteen consec+ti%e da&s. If he finishes the to+rna(ent with a winning record Feight %ictories or betterG) his ranking will rise. If he has a losing record) his ranking falls. If it falls far eno+gh) he is booted fro( the elite rank entirel&. The eighth %ictor& in an& to+rna(ent is therefore critical) the difference

between *ro(otion and de(otion< it is ro+ghl& fo+r ti(es as %al+able in the rankings as the t&*ical %ictor&. $o a wrestler entering the final da& of a to+rna(ent on the b+bble) with a KNK record) has far (ore to gain fro( a %ictor& than an o**onent with a record of MNA has to lose. Is it *ossible) then) that an MNA wrestler (ight allow a KNK wrestler to beat hi(3 A s+(o bo+t is a concentrated fl+rr& of force and s*eed and le%erage) often lasting onl& a few seconds. It wo+ldn't be %er& hard to let &o+rself be tossed. Let's i(agine for a (o(ent that s+(o wrestling is rigged. #ow (ight we (eas+re the data to *ro%e it3 The first ste* wo+ld be to isolate the bo+ts in =+estion" those fo+ght on a to+rna(ent's final da& between a wrestler on the b+bble and a wrestler who has alread& sec+red his eighth win. F6eca+se (ore than half of all wrestlers end a to+rna(ent with either se%en) eight) or nine %ictories) h+ndreds of bo+ts fit these criteria.G A final2da& (atch between two KNK wrestlers isn't likel& to be fi/ed) since both fighters badl& need the %ictor&. A wrestler with ten or (ore %ictories *robabl& wo+ldn't throw a (atch either) since he has his own strong incenti%e to win" the I4BB)BBB *riCe for o%erall to+rna(ent cha(*ion and a series of I8B)BBB *riCes for the .o+tstanding techni=+e0 award) .fighting s*irit0 award) and others. Let's now consider the following statistic) which re*resents the h+ndreds of (atches in which a KNK wrestler faced an MNA wrestler on a to+rna(ent's final da&. The left col+(n tallies the *robabilit&) based on all *ast (eetings between the two wrestlers fighting that da&) that the KNK wrestler will win. The right col+(n shows how often the KNK wrestler act+all& did win.

KNK KNK ,RE$TLER'$ PREDI!TED ,IN PER!ENTA:E OPPONENT ?M.K K@.A A:AIN$T MNA

,RE$TLER'$

A!T AL

,IN MNA

PER!ENTA:E OPPONENT

A:AIN$T

$o the KNK wrestler) based on *ast o+tco(es) was e/*ected to win E+st less than half the ti(e. This (akes sense< their records in this to+rna(ent indicate that the MNA wrestler is slightl& better. 6+t in act+alit&) the wrestler on the b+bble won al(ost eight o+t of ten (atches against his MNA o**onent. ,restlers on the b+bble also do astonishingl& well against @ND o**onents"

KNK KNK ,RE$TLER'$ PREDI!TED ,IN PER!ENTA:E OPPONENT ?K.8 K;.? A:AIN$T @ND

,RE$TLER'$

A!T AL

,IN @ND

PER!ENTA:E OPPONENT

A:AIN$T

As s+s*icio+s as this looks) a high winning *ercentage alone isn't eno+gh to *ro%e that a (atch is rigged. $ince so (+ch de*ends on a wrestler's eighth win) he sho+ld be e/*ected to fight harder in a cr+cial bo+t. 6+t *erha*s there are f+rther cl+es in the data that *ro%e coll+sion. It's worth thinking abo+t the incenti%e a wrestler (ight ha%e to throw a (atch. 7a&be he acce*ts a bribe Fwhich wo+ld ob%io+sl& not be recorded in the dataG. Or *erha*s so(e other arrange(ent is (ade

between the two wrestlers. 9ee* in (ind that the *ool of elite s+(o wrestlers is e/traordinaril& tight2knit. Each of the si/t&2si/ elite wrestlers fights fifteen of the others in a to+rna(ent e%er& two (onths. H+rther(ore) each wrestler belongs to a stable that is t&*icall& (anaged b& a for(er s+(o cha(*ion) so e%en the ri%al stables ha%e close ties. F,restlers fro( the sa(e stable do not wrestle one another.G Now let's look at the win2loss *ercentage between the KNK wrestlers and the MNA wrestlers the ne/t ti(e the& (eet) when neither one is on the b+bble. In this case) there is no great *ress+re on the indi%id+al (atch. $o &o+ (ight e/*ect the wrestlers who won their KNK (atches in the *re%io+s to+rna(ent to do abo+t as well as the& had in earlier (atches against these sa(e o**onents1that is) winning ro+ghl& DB *ercent of the ti(e. Yo+ certainl& wo+ldn't e/*ect the( to +*hold their MB *ercent cli*. As it t+rns o+t) the data show that the KNK wrestlers win onl& ?B *ercent of the re(atches. Eight& *ercent in one (atch and ?B *ercent in the ne/t3 #ow do &o+ (ake sense of that3 The (ost logical e/*lanation is that the wrestlers (ade a =+id *ro =+o agree(ent" &o+ let (e win toda&) when I reall& need the %ictor&) and I'll let &o+ win the ne/t ti(e. F$+ch an arrange(ent wo+ldn't *recl+de a cash bribe.G It's es*eciall& interesting to note that b& the two wrestlers' second s+bse=+ent (eeting) the win *ercentages re%ert to the e/*ected le%el of abo+t DB *ercent) s+ggesting that the coll+sion s*ans onl& two (atches. And it isn't onl& the indi%id+al wrestlers whose records are s+s*ect. The collecti%e records of the %ario+s s+(o stables are si(ilarl& aberrational. ,hen one stable's wrestlers fare well on the b+bble

against wrestlers fro( a second stable) the& tend to do es*eciall& *oorl& when the second stable's wrestlers are on the b+bble. This indicates that so(e (atch rigging (a& be choreogra*hed at the highest le%el of the s*ort1(+ch like the Ol&(*ic skating E+dges' %ote swa**ing. No for(al disci*linar& action has e%er been taken against a 5a*anese s+(o wrestler for (atch rigging. Officials fro( the 5a*anese $+(o Association t&*icall& dis(iss an& s+ch charges as fabrications b& disgr+ntled for(er wrestlers. In fact) the (ere +tterance of the words .s+(o0 and .rigged0 in the sa(e sentence can ca+se a national f+ror. Peo*le tend to get defensi%e when the integrit& of their national s*ort is i(*+gned. $till) allegations of (atch rigging do occasionall& find their wa& into the 5a*anese (edia. These occasional (edia stor(s offer one (ore chance to (eas+re *ossible corr+*tion in s+(o. 7edia scr+tin&) after all) creates a *owerf+l incenti%e" if two s+(o wrestlers or their stables ha%e been rigging (atches) the& (ight be leer& to contin+e when a swar( of Eo+rnalists and T> ca(eras descend +*on the(. $o what ha**ens in s+ch cases3 The data show that in the s+(o to+rna(ents held i((ediatel& after allegations of (atch rigging) KNK wrestlers win onl& DB *ercent of their final2da& (atches against MNA o**onents instead of the t&*ical MB *ercent. No (atter how the data are sliced) the& ine%itabl& s+ggest one thing" it is hard to arg+e that s+(o wrestling isn't rigged. $e%eral &ears ago) two for(er s+(o wrestlers ca(e forward with e/tensi%e allegations of (atch rigging1and (ore. Aside fro( the crooked (atches) the& said) s+(o was rife with dr+g +se and se/ca*ades) bribes and ta/ e%asion) and close ties to the &ak+Ca) the

5a*anese (afia. The two (en began to recei%e threatening *hone calls< one of the( told friends he was afraid he wo+ld be killed b& the &ak+Ca. $till) the& went forward with *lans to hold a *ress conference at the Horeign !orres*ondents' !l+b in Tok&o. 6+t shortl& beforehand) the two (en died1ho+rs a*art) in the sa(e hos*ital) of a si(ilar res*irator& ail(ent. The *olice declared there had been no fo+l *la& b+t did not cond+ct an in%estigation. .It see(s %er& strange for these two *eo*le to die on the sa(e da& at the sa(e hos*ital)0 said 7its+r+ 7i&ake) the editor of a s+(o (agaCine. .6+t no one has seen the( *oisoned) so &o+ can't *ro%e the ske*ticis(.0 ,hether or not their deaths were intentional) these two (en had done what no other s+(o insider had *re%io+sl& done" na(ed na(es. Of the 8M4 wrestlers co%ered in the data cited abo%e) the& identified 8@ crooked wrestlers and 44 who were said to be incorr+*tible. ,hat ha**ens when the whistle2blowers' corroborating e%idence is factored into the anal&sis of the (atch data3 In (atches between two s+**osedl& corr+*t wrestlers) the wrestler who was on the b+bble won abo+t MB *ercent of the ti(e. In b+bble (atches against a s+**osedl& clean o**onent) (eanwhile) the b+bble wrestler was no (ore likel& to win than his record wo+ld *redict. H+rther(ore) when a s+**osedl& corr+*t wrestler faced an o**onent who( the whistle2blowers did not na(e as either corr+*t or clean) the res+lts were nearl& as skewed as when two corr+*t wrestlers (et1s+ggesting that (ost wrestlers who weren't s*ecificall& na(ed were also corr+*t.

$o if s+(o wrestlers) schoolteachers) and da&2care *arents all cheat) are we to ass+(e that (ankind is innatel& and +ni%ersall& corr+*t3 And if so) how corr+*t3

The answer (a& lie in-bagels. !onsider the tr+e stor& of a (an na(ed Pa+l Held(an. Once +*on a ti(e) Held(an drea(ed big drea(s. Trained as an agric+lt+ral econo(ist) he wanted to tackle world h+nger. Instead) he took a Eob in ,ashington) anal&Cing wea*ons e/*endit+res for the .$. Na%&. This was in 4@A8. Hor the ne/t twent&2odd &ears) he did (ore of the sa(e. #e held senior2le%el Eobs and earned good (one&) b+t he wasn't f+ll& engaged in his work. At the office !hrist(as *art&) colleag+es wo+ld introd+ce hi( to their wi%es not as .the head of the *+blic research gro+*0 Fwhich he wasG b+t as .the g+& who brings in the bagels.0 The bagels had beg+n as a cas+al gest+re" a boss treating his e(*lo&ees whene%er the& won a research contract. Then he (ade it a habit. E%er& Hrida&) he wo+ld bring in so(e bagels) a serrated knife) and crea( cheese. ,hen e(*lo&ees fro( neighboring floors heard abo+t the bagels) the& wanted so(e too. E%ent+all& he was bringing in fifteen doCen bagels a week. In order to reco+* his costs) he set o+t a cash basket and a sign with the s+ggested *rice. #is collection rate was abo+t @D *ercent< he attrib+ted the +nder*a&(ent to o%ersight) not fra+d. In 4@M?) when his research instit+te fell +nder new (anage(ent) Held(an took a look at his career and gri(aced. #e decided to =+it his Eob and sell bagels. #is econo(ist friends tho+ght he had lost his (ind) b+t his wife s+**orted hi(. The last of their three children was finishing college) and the& had retired their (ortgage. Dri%ing aro+nd the office *arks that encircle ,ashington) he solicited c+sto(ers with a si(*le *itch" earl& in the (orning) he wo+ld deli%er so(e bagels and a cash basket to a co(*an&'s snack roo(< he wo+ld

ret+rn before l+nch to *ick +* the (one& and the lefto%ers. It was an honor2s&ste( co((erce sche(e) and it worked. ,ithin a few &ears) Held(an was deli%ering M)?BB bagels a week to 4?B co(*anies and earning as (+ch as he had e%er (ade as a research anal&st. #e had thrown off the shackles of c+bicle life and (ade hi(self ha**&. #e had also1=+ite witho+t (eaning to1designed a bea+tif+l econo(ic e/*eri(ent. Hro( the beginning) Held(an ke*t rigoro+s data on his b+siness. $o b& (eas+ring the (one& collected against the bagels taken) he fo+nd it *ossible to tell) down to the *enn&) E+st how honest his c+sto(ers were. Did the& steal fro( hi(3 If so) what were the characteristics of a co(*an& that stole %ers+s a co(*an& that did not3 nder what circ+(stances did *eo*le tend to steal (ore) or less3 As it ha**ens) Held(an's accidental st+d& *ro%ides a window onto a for( of cheating that has long st&(ied acade(ics" white2collar cri(e. FYes) shorting the bagel (an is white2collar cri(e) writ howe%er s(all.G It (ight see( l+dicro+s to address as large and intractable a *roble( as white2collar cri(e thro+gh the life of a bagel (an. 6+t often a s(all and si(*le =+estion can hel* chisel awa& at the biggest *roble(s. Des*ite all the attention *aid to rog+e co(*anies like Enron) acade(ics know %er& little abo+t the *racticalities of white2collar cri(e. The reason3 There are no good data. A ke& fact of white2collar cri(e is that we hear abo+t onl& the %er& sli( fraction of *eo*le who are ca+ght cheating. 7ost e(beCClers lead =+iet and theoreticall& ha**& li%es< e(*lo&ees who steal co(*an& *ro*ert& are rarel& detected. ,ith street cri(e) (eanwhile) that is not the case. A (+gging or a b+rglar& or a (+rder is +s+all& tallied whether or not the cri(inal is ca+ght. A street cri(e has a %icti() who t&*icall& re*orts the cri(e to

the *olice) who generate data) which in t+rn generate tho+sands of acade(ic *a*ers b& cri(inologists) sociologists) and econo(ists. 6+t white2collar cri(e *resents no ob%io+s %icti(. Hro( who() e/actl&) did the (asters of Enron steal3 And how can &o+ (eas+re so(ething if &o+ don't know to who( it ha**ened) or with what fre=+enc&) or in what (agnit+de3 Pa+l Held(an's bagel b+siness was different. It did *resent a %icti(. The %icti( was Pa+l Held(an.

,hen he started his b+siness) he e/*ected a @D *ercent *a&(ent rate) based on the e/*erience at his own office. 6+t E+st as cri(e tends to be low on a street where a *olice car is *arked) the @D *ercent rate was artificiall& high" Held(an's *resence had deterred theft. Not onl& that) b+t those bagel eaters knew the *ro%ider and had feelings F*res+(abl& good onesG abo+t hi(. A broad swath of *s&chological and econo(ic research has shown that *eo*le will *a& different a(o+nts for the sa(e ite( de*ending on who is *ro%iding it. The econo(ist Richard Thaler) in his 4@MD .6eer on the 6each0 st+d&) showed that a thirst& s+nbather wo+ld *a& I8.AD for a beer deli%ered fro( a resort hotel b+t onl& I4.DB for the sa(e beer if it ca(e fro( a shabb& grocer& store. In the real world) Held(an learned to settle for less than @D *ercent. #e ca(e to consider a co(*an& .honest0 if its *a&(ent rate was abo%e @B *ercent. #e considered a rate between MB and @B *ercent .anno&ing b+t tolerable.0 If a co(*an& habit+all& *aid below MB *ercent) Held(an (ight *ost a hectoring note) like this one"

The cost of bagels has gone +* dra(aticall& since the beginning of the &ear. nfort+natel&) the n+(ber of bagels that disa**ear witho+t being *aid for has also gone +*. Don't let that contin+e. I don't i(agine that &o+ wo+ld teach &o+r children to cheat) so wh& do it &o+rsel%es3 In the beginning) Held(an left behind an o*en basket for the cash) b+t too often the (one& %anished. Then he tried a coffee can with a (one& slot in its *lastic lid) which also *ro%ed too te(*ting. In the end) he resorted to (aking s(all *l&wood bo/es with a slot c+t into the to*. The wooden bo/ has worked well. Each &ear he dro*s off abo+t se%en tho+sand bo/es and loses) on a%erage) E+st one to theft. This is an intrig+ing statistic" the sa(e *eo*le who ro+tinel& steal (ore than 4B *ercent of his bagels al(ost ne%er stoo* to stealing his (one& bo/1a trib+te to the n+anced social calc+l+s of theft. Hro( Held(an's *ers*ecti%e) an office worker who eats a bagel witho+t *a&ing is co((itting a cri(e< the office worker *robabl& doesn't think so. This distinction *robabl& has less to do with the ad(ittedl& s(all a(o+nt of (one& in%ol%ed FHeld(an's bagels cost one dollar each) crea( cheese incl+dedG than with the conte/t of the .cri(e.0 The sa(e office worker who fails to *a& for his bagel (ight also hel* hi(self to a long sl+r* of soda while filling a glass in a self2ser%e resta+rant) b+t he is %er& +nlikel& to lea%e the resta+rant witho+t *a&ing. $o what do the bagel data ha%e to sa&3 In recent &ears) there ha%e been two noteworth& trends in the o%erall *a&(ent rate. The first was a long) slow decline that began in 4@@8. 6& the s+((er of 8BB4) the o%erall rate had sli**ed to abo+t MK *ercent. 6+t i((ediatel& after $e*te(ber 44 of that &ear) the rate s*iked a f+ll 8 *ercent and hasn't sli**ed (+ch since. FIf a 8 *ercent gain in *a&(ent doesn't so+nd like (+ch) think of it this wa&" the non*a&(ent rate fell fro( 4; to 44 *ercent) which a(o+nts to a 4D *ercent decline in theft.G 6eca+se

(an& of Held(an's c+sto(ers are affiliated with national sec+rit&) there (a& ha%e been a *atriotic ele(ent to this @L44 Effect. Or it (a& ha%e re*resented a (ore general s+rge in e(*ath&. The data also show that s(aller offices are (ore honest than big ones. An office with a few doCen e(*lo&ees generall& o+t*a&s b& ; to D *ercent an office with a few h+ndred e(*lo&ees. This (a& see( co+nterint+iti%e. In a bigger office) a bigger crowd is bo+nd to con%ene aro+nd the bagel table) *ro%iding (ore witnesses to (ake s+re &o+ dro* &o+r (one& in the bo/. 6+t in the big2officeLs(all2office co(*arison) bagel cri(e see(s to (irror street cri(e. There is far less street cri(e *er ca*ita in r+ral areas than in cities) in large *art beca+se a r+ral cri(inal is (ore likel& to be known Fand therefore ca+ghtG. Also) a s(aller co((+nit& tends to e/ert greater social incenti%es against cri(e) the (ain one being sha(e. The bagel data also reflect how (+ch *ersonal (ood see(s to affect honest&. ,eather) for instance) is a (aEor factor. *leasant weather ins*ires *eo*le to *a& at a higher rate. nseasonabl& nseasonabl&

cold weather) (eanwhile) (akes *eo*le cheat *rolificall&< so do hea%& rain and wind. ,orst are the holida&s. The week of !hrist(as *rod+ces a 8 *ercent dro* in *a&(ent rates1again) a 4D *ercent increase in theft) an effect on the sa(e (agnit+de) in re%erse) as that of @L44. Thanksgi%ing is nearl& as bad< the week of >alentine's Da& is also lo+s&) as is the week straddling A*ril 4D. There are) howe%er) a few good holida&s" the weeks that incl+de the Ho+rth of 5+l&) Labor Da&) and !ol+(b+s Da&. The difference in the two sets of holida&s3 The low2 cheating holida&s re*resent little (ore than an e/tra da& off fro( work. The high2cheating holida&s are fra+ght with (iscellaneo+s an/ieties and the high e/*ectations of lo%ed ones.

Held(an has also reached so(e of his own concl+sions abo+t honest&) based (ore on his e/*erience than the data. #e has co(e to belie%e that (orale is a big factor1that an office is (ore honest when the e(*lo&ees like their boss and their work. #e also belie%es that e(*lo&ees f+rther +* the cor*orate ladder cheat (ore than those down below. #e got this idea after deli%ering for &ears to one co(*an& s*read o+t o%er three floors1an e/ec+ti%e floor on to* and two lower floors with sales) ser%ice) and ad(inistrati%e e(*lo&ees. FHeld(an wondered if *erha*s the e/ec+ti%es cheated o+t of an o%erde%elo*ed sense of entitle(ent. ,hat he didn't consider is that *erha*s cheating was how the& got to be e/ec+ti%es.G

If (oralit& re*resents the wa& we wo+ld like the world to work and econo(ics re*resents how it act+all& does work) then the stor& of Held(an's bagel b+siness lies at the %er& intersection of (oralit& and econo(ics. Yes) a lot of *eo*le steal fro( hi() b+t the %ast (aEorit&) e%en tho+gh no one is watching o%er the() do not. This o+tco(e (a& s+r*rise so(e *eo*le1incl+ding Held(an's econo(ist friends) who co+nseled hi( twent& &ears ago that his honor2s&ste( sche(e wo+ld ne%er work. 6+t it wo+ld not ha%e s+r*rised Ada( $(ith. In fact) the the(e of $(ith's first book) The Theor& of 7oral $enti(ents) was the innate honest& of (ankind. .#ow selfish soe%er (an (a& be s+**osed)0 $(ith wrote) .there are e%identl& so(e *rinci*les in his nat+re) which interest hi( in the fort+ne of others) and render their ha**iness necessar& to hi() tho+gh he deri%es nothing fro( it) e/ce*t the *leas+re of seeing it.0 There is a tale) .The Ring of :&ges)0 that Held(an so(eti(es tells his econo(ist friends. It co(es fro( Plato's Re*+blic. A st+dent na(ed :la+con offered the stor& in res*onse to a lesson b& $ocrates1who)

like Ada( $(ith) arg+ed that *eo*le are generall& good e%en witho+t enforce(ent. :la+con) like Held(an's econo(ist friends) disagreed. #e told of a she*herd na(ed :&ges who st+(bled +*on a secret ca%ern with a cor*se inside that wore a ring. ,hen :&ges *+t on the ring) he fo+nd that it (ade hi( in%isible. ,ith no one able to (onitor his beha%ior) :&ges *roceeded to do woef+l things1sed+ce the =+een) (+rder the king) and so on. :la+con's stor& *osed a (oral =+estion" co+ld an& (an resist the te(*tation of e%il if he knew his acts co+ld not be witnessed3 :la+con see(ed to think the answer was no. 6+t Pa+l Held(an sides with $ocrates and Ada( $(ith1for he knows that the answer) at least MK *ercent of the ti(e) is &es. Le%itt is the first to sa& that so(e of his to*ics1a st+d& of discri(ination on The ,eakest Link31border on the tri%ial. 6+t he has shown other econo(ists E+st how well their tools can (ake sense of the real world. .Le%itt is considered a de(igod) one of the (ost creati%e *eo*le in econo(ics and (a&be in all social science)0 sa&s !olin H. !a(erer) an econo(ist at the !alifornia Instit+te of Technolog&. .#e re*resents so(ething that e%er&one thinks the& will be when the& go to grad school in econ b+t +s+all& the& ha%e the creati%e s*ark bored o+t of the( b& endless (ath1na(el&) a kind of intellect+al detecti%e tr&ing to fig+re st+ff o+t.0 1T#E N E, Y OR9 T I7E$ 7 A:AJINE) A : $T ;) 8BB;

0 Ho1 Is the Ku Klux Kl$n #i2e $ 3roup of Re$l4Est$te Agents/

As instit+tions go) the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan has had a (arkedl& +*2and2down histor&. It was fo+nded in the i((ediate after(ath of the !i%il ,ar b&

si/ for(er !onfederate soldiers in P+laski) Tennessee. The si/ &o+ng (en) fo+r of who( were b+dding law&ers) saw the(sel%es as (erel& a circle of like2(inded friends1th+s the na(e the& chose) .k+kl+/)0 a slight (angling of k+klos) the :reek word for .circle.0 The& added .klan0 beca+se the& were all of $cotch2Irish descent. In the beginning) their acti%ities were said to be har(less (idnight *ranks1riding horses thro+gh the co+ntr&side while dra*ed in white sheets and *illowcase hoods. 6+t soon the 9lan e%ol%ed into a (+lti2state terrorist organiCation designed to frighten and kill e(anci*ated sla%es. A(ong its regional leaders were fi%e for(er !onfederate generals< its sta+nchest President s+**orters were the *lantation owners for who( Reconstr+ction *osed an econo(ic and *olitical night(are. In 4MK8) l&sses $. :rant s*elled o+t for the #o+se of Re*resentati%es the tr+e ai(s of the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan" .6& force and terror) to *re%ent all *olitical action not in accord with the %iews of the (e(bers) to de*ri%e colored citiCens of the right to bear ar(s and of the right of a free ballot) to s+**ress the schools in which colored children were ta+ght) and to red+ce the colored *eo*le to a condition closel& allied to that of sla%er&.0 The earl& 9lan did its work thro+gh *a(*hleteering) l&nching) shooting) b+rning) castrating) *istol2whi**ing) and a tho+sand for(s of inti(idation. The& targeted for(er sla%es and an& whites who s+**orted the blacks' rights to %ote) ac=+ire land) or gain an ed+cation. ,ithin barel& a decade) howe%er) the 9lan had been e/ting+ished) largel& b& legal and (ilitar& inter%entions o+t of ,ashington) D.!. 6+t if the 9lan itself was defeated) its ai(s had largel& been achie%ed thro+gh the establish(ent of 5i( !row laws. !ongress) which d+ring Reconstr+ction had been =+ick to enact (eas+res of legal) social) and

econo(ic freedo( for blacks) E+st as =+ickl& began to roll the( back. The federal go%ern(ent agreed to withdraw its occ+*ation troo*s fro( the $o+th) allowing the restoration of white r+le. In Pless& %. Herg+son) the .$. $+*re(e !o+rt ga%e the go2ahead to f+ll2scale racial segregation. The 9+ 9l+/ 9lan la& largel& dor(ant +ntil 4@4D) when D. ,. :riffith's fil( The 6irth of a Nation1originall& titled The !lans(an1hel*ed s*ark its rebirth. :riffith *resented the 9lan as cr+saders for white ci%iliCation itself) and as one of the noblest forces in A(erican histor&. The fil( =+oted a line fro( A #istor& of the A(erican Peo*le) written b& a renowned historian" .At last there had s*r+ng into e/istence a great 9+ 9l+/ 9lan) a %eritable e(*ire of the $o+th) to *rotect the $o+thern co+ntr&.0 The book's a+thor was .$. *resident ,oodrow ni%ersit&. ,ilson) oneti(e scholar and *resident of Princeton

6& the 4@8Bs) a re%i%ed 9lan clai(ed eight (illion (e(bers) incl+ding President ,arren :. #arding) who re*ortedl& took his 9lan oath in the :reen Roo( of the ,hite #o+se. This ti(e aro+nd) the 9lan was not confined to the $o+th b+t ranged thro+gho+t the co+ntr&< this ti(e) it concerned itself not onl& with blacks b+t also with !atholics) 5ews) co((+nists) +nionists) i((igrants) agitators) and other disr+*ters of the stat+s =+o. In 4@;;) with #itler ascendant in :er(an&) ,ill Rogers was the first to draw a line between the new 9lan and the new threat in E+ro*e" .Pa*ers all state #itler is tr&ing to co*& 7+ssolini)0 he wrote. .Looks to (e like it's the 9+ 9l+/ that he is co*&ing.0 The onset of ,orld ,ar II and a n+(ber of internal scandals once again laid the 9lan low. P+blic senti(ent t+rned against the 9lan as the +nit& of a co+ntr& at war tr+(*ed its (essage of se*aratis(.

6+t within a few &ears) there were alread& signs of a (assi%e re%i%al. As warti(e an/iet& ga%e wa& to *ostwar +ncertaint&) 9lan (e(bershi* flo+rished. 6arel& two (onths after >25 Da&) the 9lan in Atlanta b+rned a ;BB2foot cross on the face of $tone 7o+ntain) site of a storied rock car%ing of Robert E. Lee. The e/tra%agant cross b+rning) one 9lans(an later said) was intended .E+st to let the niggers know the war is o%er and that the 9lan is back on the (arket.0 Atlanta had b& now beco(e 9lan head=+arters. The 9lan held great swa& with ke& :eorgia *oliticians) and its :eorgia cha*ters incl+ded (an& *olice(en and sheriff's de*+ties. Yes) the 9lan was a secret societ&) re%eling in *asswords and cloak2and2dagger *lo&s) b+t its real *ower la& in the %er& *+blic fear that it fostered1e/e(*lified b& the o*en secret that the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan and the law2enforce(ent establish(ent were brothers in ar(s. Atlanta1the I(*erial !it& of the 999's In%isible E(*ire) in 9lan Eargon 1was also ho(e to $tetson 9enned&) a thirt&2&ear2old (an with the bloodlines of a 9lans(an b+t a te(*era(ent that ran o**osite. #e ca(e fro( a *ro(inent so+thern fa(il& whose ancestors incl+ded two signers of the Declaration of Inde*endence) an officer in the !onfederate Ar(&) and 5ohn 6. $tetson) fo+nder of the fa(ed hat co(*an& and the (an for who( $tetson ni%ersit& was na(ed.

$tetson 9enned& grew +* in a fo+rteen2roo( ho+se in 5ackson%ille) Hlorida) the &o+ngest of fi%e children. #is +ncle 6rad& was a 9lans(an. 6+t he got his first real e/*os+re to the 9lan when the fa(il&'s (aid) Hlo) who had *rett& (+ch raised $tetson) was tied to a tree) beaten) and ra*ed b& a gang of 9lans(en. #er offense" talking back to a white trolle& dri%er who had shortchanged her.

6eca+se 9enned& co+ldn't fight in ,orld ,ar II1he had had a bad back since childhood1he felt co(*elled to defend his co+ntr& at ho(e. Its worst ene(&) he belie%ed) was bigotr&. 9enned& beca(e a self2described .dissident at large)0 writing anti2bigotr& articles and books. #e beca(e close friends with ,ood& :+thrie) Richard ,right) and a host of other *rogressi%es< 5ean2Pa+l $artre *+blished his work in Hrance. ,riting did not co(e easil& to 9enned&) or ha**il&. #e was at root a co+ntr& bo& who wo+ld rather ha%e been off fishing the swa(*s. 6+t he was afflicted b& a foolhard& de%otion to his ca+se. 9enned& wo+ld go on to beco(e the onl& gentile (e(ber of the Anti2Defa(ation Leag+e's *ostwar effort to s(ite bigotr&. F#e coined the *hrase .Hrown Power)0 a center*iece of the ADL's *eer2*ress+re ca(*aign) which enco+raged *eo*le to *ointedl& frown when the& heard bigoted s*eech.G #e beca(e the onl& white corres*ondent for the Pittsb+rgh !o+rier) the co+ntr&'s largest black news*a*er. F#e wrote a col+(n abo+t the race str+ggle in the $o+th +nder the *se+don&( Dadd& 7ention1a black folk hero who) as (&th told it) co+ld o+tr+n the blast of a sheriff's shotg+n.G ,hat dro%e 9enned& was a hatred of s(all2(indedness) ignorance) obstr+ctionis() and inti(idation1which) in his %iew) were dis*la&ed b& no organiCation (ore *ro+dl& than b& the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan. 9enned& saw the 9lan as the terrorist ar( of the white establish(ent itself. This str+ck hi( as an intractable *roble() for a %ariet& of reasons. The 9lan was in cahoots with *olitical) b+siness) and law2enforce(ent leaders. The *+blic was frightened and felt *ower2less to act against the 9lan. And the few anti2hate gro+*s that e/isted at the ti(e had little le%erage or e%en infor(ation abo+t the 9lan. As 9enned& later wrote) he was *artic+larl& chagrined b& one ke& fact abo+t the 9lan" .Al(ost

all of the things written on the s+bEect were editorials) not e/*osOs. The writers were against the 9lan) all right) b+t the& had *recio+s few inside facts abo+t it.0 $o 9enned& decided1as an& foolhard&) fearless) slightl& daft anti2bigot wo+ld1to go +nderco%er and Eoin the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan. In Atlanta) he started hanging aro+nd a *ool hall .whose habit+Os)0 as he later wrote) .had the fr+strated) cr+el look of the 9lan abo+t the(.0 A (an na(ed $li() a ta/i dri%er) sat beside hi( at the bar one afternoon. .,hat this co+ntr& needs is a good 9l+/ing)0 $li( said. .That's the onl& wa& to kee* the niggers) kikes) !atholic dagos) and Reds in their *laceP0 9enned& introd+ced hi(self as 5ohn $. Perkins) the alias he had ado*ted for his (ission. #e told $li() tr+thf+ll&) that his +ncle 6rad& Perkins back in Hlorida had once been a :reat Titan with the 9lan. .6+t the&'re dead now) aren't the&30 he asked $li(. That *ro(*ted $li( to whi* o+t a 9lan calling card" .#ere Yesterda&) Toda&) Hore%erP The 9+ 9l+/ 9lan Is RidingP :od :i%e s 7enP0 $li( told .Perkins0 that he was in l+ck) for there was a (e(bershi* dri%e +nder wa&. The I4B initiation fee1the 9lan's sales *itch was .Do Yo+ #ate Niggers3 Do Yo+ #ate 5ews3 Do Yo+ #a%e Ten Dollars301had been red+ced to IM. Then there was another I4B in ann+al d+es) and I4D for a hooded robe. 9enned& balked at the %ario+s fees) *retending to *la& hard to get) b+t agreed to Eoin. Not long after) he took the 9lan oath in a nightti(e (ass initiation ato* $tone 7o+ntain. 9enned& began attending weekl& 9lan (eetings) h+rr&ing ho(e afterward to write notes in a cr&*tic shorthand he in%ented. #e learned the identities of the 9lan's local and

regional leaders and deci*hered the 9lan's hierarch&) rit+als) and lang+age. It was 9lan c+sto( to affi/ a 9l to (an& words< th+s wo+ld two 9lans(en hold a 9lon%ersation in the local 9la%ern. 7an& of the c+sto(s str+ck 9enned& as al(ost la+ghabl& childish. The secret 9lan handshake) for instance) was a left2handed) li(*2wristed fish wiggle. ,hen a tra%eling 9lans(an wanted to locate brethren in a strange town) he wo+ld ask for a .7r. A&ak01.A&ak0 being code for .Are Yo+ a 9lans(an30 #e wo+ld ho*e to hear) .Yes) and I also know a 7r. Akai01 code for .A 9lans(an A( I.0 6efore long) 9enned& was in%ited to Eoin the 9la%aliers) the 9lan's secret *olice and .flog s=+ad.0 Hor this *ri%ilege) his wrist was slit with a Eackknife so that he co+ld take a blood oath" .9lans(an) do &o+ sole(nl& swear b& :od and the De%il ne%er to betra& secrets entr+sted to &o+ as a 9la%alier of the 9lan30 .I swear)0 9enned& res*onded. .Do &o+ swear to *ro%ide &o+rself with a good g+n and *lent& of a((+nition) so as to be read& when the nigger starts tro+ble to gi%e hi( *lent&30 .I do.0 .Do &o+ f+rther swear to do all in &o+r *ower to increase the white birth rate30 .I do.0 9enned& was *ro(*tl& instr+cted to *a& I4B for his initiation into the 9la%aliers) as well as I4 a (onth to co%er 9la%alier e/*enses. #e also had to b+& a second hooded robe) to be d&ed black.

As a 9la%alier) 9enned& worried that he wo+ld so(eda& be e/*ected to inflict %iolence. 6+t he soon disco%ered a central fact of life in the 9lan 1and of terroris( in general" (ost of the threatened %iolence ne%er goes be&ond the threat stage. !onsider l&nching) the 9lan's hall(ark sign of %iolence. #ere) co(*iled b& the T+skegee Instit+te) are the decade2b&2decade statistics on the l&nching of blacks in the nited $tates"

LYN!#IN:$ YEAR$ 4M@BN4M@@ 4@BBN4@B@ 4@4BN4@4@ 4@8BN4@8@ 4@;BN4@;@ 4@?BN4@?@ 4@DBN4@D@ 4@ABN4@A@ 4)444 K@4 DA@ 8M4 44@ ;4 A ;

OH

6LA!9$

6ear in (ind that these fig+res re*resent not onl& l&nchings attrib+ted to the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan b+t the total n+(ber of re*orted l&nchings. The statistics re%eal at least three noteworth& facts. The first is the ob%io+s decrease in l&nchings o%er ti(e. The second is the absence of a correlation between l&nchings and 9lan (e(bershi*" there were act+all& (ore l&nchings of blacks between 4@BB and 4@B@) when the 9lan was dor(ant) than d+ring the 4@8Bs) when the 9lan had (illions

of (e(bers1which s+ggests that the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan carried o+t far fewer l&nchings than is generall& tho+ght. Third) relati%e to the siCe of the black *o*+lation) l&nchings were e/ceedingl& rare. To be s+re) one l&nching is one too (an&. 6+t b& the t+rn of the cent+r&) l&nchings were hardl& the e%er&da& occ+rrence that the& are often re(e(bered as. !o(*are the 8M4 %icti(s of l&nchings in the 4@8Bs to the n+(ber of black infants who died as a res+lt of (aln+trition) *ne+(onia) diarrhea) and the like. As of 4@8B) abo+t 4; o+t of e%er& 4BB black children died in infanc&) or ro+ghl& 8B)BBB children each &ear1co(*ared to 8M *eo*le who were l&nched in a &ear. As late as 4@?B) abo+t 4B)BBB black infants died each &ear. ,hat larger tr+ths do these l&nching fig+res s+ggest3 ,hat does it (ean that l&nchings were relati%el& rare and that the& fell *reci*ito+sl& o%er ti(e) e%en in the face of a boo( in 9lan (e(bershi*3 The (ost co(*elling e/*lanation is that all those earl& l&nchings worked. ,hite racists1whether or not the& belonged to the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan1had thro+gh their actions and their rhetoric de%elo*ed a strong incenti%e sche(e that was terribl& clear and terribl& frightening. If a black *erson %iolated the acce*ted code of beha%ior) whether b& talking back to a trolle& dri%er or daring to tr& to %ote) he knew he (ight well be *+nished) *erha*s b& death. $o b& the (id24@?Bs) when $tetson 9enned& Eoined +*) the 9lan didn't reall& need to +se as (+ch %iolence. 7an& blacks) ha%ing long been told to beha%e like second2class citiCens1or else1si(*l& obliged. One or two l&nchings went a long wa& toward ind+cing docilit& a(ong e%en a large gro+* of *eo*le) for *eo*le res*ond strongl& to strong

incenti%es. And there are few incenti%es (ore *owerf+l than the fear of rando( %iolence1which) in essence) is wh& terroris( is so effecti%e. 6+t if the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan of the 4@?Bs wasn't +nifor(l& %iolent) what was it3 The 9lan that $tetson 9enned& fo+nd was in fact a sorr& fraternit& of (en) (ost of the( *oorl& ed+cated and with *oor *ros*ects) who needed a *lace to %ent1and an e/c+se for occasionall& sta&ing o+t all night. That their fraternit& engaged in =+asi2religio+s chanting and oath taking and hosanna hailing) all of it to* secret) (ade it that (+ch (ore a**ealing. 9enned& also fo+nd the 9lan to be a slick (one&2(aking o*eration) at least for those near the to* of the organiCation. 9lan leaders had an& n+(ber of re%en+e so+rces" tho+sands of d+es2*a&ing rank2and2file (e(bers< b+siness owners who hired the 9lan to scare off the +nions or who *aid the 9lan *rotection (one&< 9lan rallies that generated h+ge cash donations< e%en the occasional g+nr+nning or (oonshine o*eration. Then there were rackets like the 9lan's Death 6enefit Association) which sold ins+rance *olicies to 9lan (e(bers and acce*ted onl& cash or *ersonal checks (ade o+t to the :rand Dragon hi(self. After E+st a few weeks inside the 9lan) 9enned& was eager to h+rt it an& wa& he co+ld. ,hen he heard abo+t 9lan *lans for a +nion2b+sting rall&) he fed the infor(ation to a +nion friend. #e *assed along 9lan infor(ation to the assistant attorne& general of :eorgia) an established 9lan b+ster. After researching the 9lan's cor*orate charter) 9enned& wrote to the go%ernor of :eorgia s+ggesting the gro+nds +*on which the charter sho+ld be re%oked" the 9lan had been designated a non2*rofit) non2*olitical organiCation) b+t 9enned& had *roof that it was clearl& de%oted to both *rofits and *olitics.

None of 9enned&'s efforts *rod+ced the desired effect. The 9lan was so entrenched and broad2based that 9enned& felt as if he were tossing *ebbles at a giant. And e%en if he co+ld so(ehow da(age the 9lan in Atlanta) the tho+sands of other cha*ters aro+nd the co+ntr&1the 9lan was b& now in the (idst of a serio+s re%i%al1wo+ld go +nto+ched. 9enned& was s+*re(el& fr+strated) and o+t of this fr+stration was born a stroke of brilliance. #e had noticed one da& a gro+* of &o+ng bo&s *la&ing so(e kind of s*& ga(e in which the& e/changed sill& secret *asswords. It re(inded hi( of the 9lan. ,o+ldn't it be nice) he tho+ght) to get the 9lan's *asswords and the rest of its secrets into the hands of kids all across the co+ntr&3 ,hat better wa& to defang a secret societ& than to infantiliCe1and (ake *+blic1its (ost secret infor(ation3 F!oincidentall&) in 6irth of a Nation) a for(er !onfederate soldier is ins*ired to start the 9lan when he sees a *air of white children hide +nder a sheet to scare a gro+* of black children.G 9enned& tho+ght of the ideal o+tlet for this (ission" the Ad%ent+res of $+*er(an radio show) broadcast each night at dinnerti(e to (illions of listeners nationwide. #e contacted the show's *rod+cers and asked if the& wo+ld like to write so(e e*isodes abo+t the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan. The *rod+cers were enth+siastic. $+*er(an had s*ent &ears fighting #itler and 7+ssolini and #irohito) b+t with the war o%er) he was in need of fresh %illains. 9enned& began feeding his best 9lan infor(ation to the $+*er(an *rod+cers. #e told the( abo+t 7r. A&ak and 7r. Akai) and he *assed along o%erheated *assages fro( the 9lan's bible) which was called the 9loran. F9enned& ne%er did learn wh& a white !hristian s+*re(acist gro+* wo+ld gi%e its bible essentiall& the sa(e na(e as the (ost hol& book of Isla(.G #e e/*lained the role of 9lan officers in an& local 9la%ern" the 9laliff F%ice *residentG) 9lokard Flect+rerG) 9l+dd Fcha*lainG)

9ligra** Fsecretar&G) 9labee Ftreas+rerG) 9ladd Fcond+ctorG) 9larogo Finner g+ardG) 9le/ter Fo+ter g+ardG) the 9lokann Fa fi%e2(an in%estigati%e co((itteeG) and the 9la%aliers Fthe strong2ar( gro+* to which 9enned& hi(self belonged) and whose ca*tain was called !hief Ass TearerG. #e s*elled o+t the 9lan hierarch& as it *roceeded fro( the local to the national le%el" an E/alted !&clo*s and his twel%e Terrors< a :reat Titan and his twel%e H+ries< a :rand Dragon and his nine #&dras< and the I(*erial ,iCard and his fifteen :enii. And 9enned& told the *rod+cers the c+rrent *asswords) agenda) and gossi* e(anating fro( his own 9lan cha*ter) Nathan 6edford Horrest 9la%ern No. 4) Atlanta) Real( of :eorgia. The radio *rod+cers began to write fo+r weeks' worth of *rogra(s in which $+*er(an wo+ld wi*e o+t the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan. 9enned& co+ldn't wait for the first 9lan (eeting after the show hit the air. $+re eno+gh) the 9la%ern was in distress. The :rand Dragon tried to r+n a nor(al (eeting b+t the rank and file sho+ted hi( down. .,hen I ca(e ho(e fro( work the other night)0 one of the( co(*lained) .there was (& kid and a b+nch of others) so(e with towels tied aro+nd their necks like ca*es and so(e with *illowcases o%er their heads. The ones with ca*es was chasing the ones with *illowcases all o%er the lot. ,hen I asked the( what the& were doing) the& said the& were *la&ing a new kind of co*s and robbers called $+*er(an against the 9lan. :angb+sting) the& called itP 9new all o+r secret *asswords and e%er&thing. I ne%er felt so ridic+lo+s in all (& lifeP $+**ose (& own kid finds (& 9lan robe so(e da&30 The :rand Dragon *ro(ised to e/*ose the 5+das in their (idst. .The da(age has alread& been done)0 said one 9lans(an.

.O+r sacred rit+al being *rofaned b& a b+nch of kids on the radioP0 said the 9ladd. .The& didn't *+t it all on the air)0 the :rand Dragon offered. .,hat the& didn't broadcast wasn't worth broadcasting)0 said the 9ladd. The Dragon s+ggested the& change their *assword i((ediatel&) fro( .red2blooded0 to .death to traitors.0 After that night's (eeting) 9enned& *honed in the new *assword to the $+*er(an *rod+cers) who *ro(ised to write it into the ne/t show. At the following week's 9lan (eeting) the roo( was nearl& e(*t&< a**lications for new (e(bershi* had fallen to Cero. Of all the ideas that 9enned& had tho+ght +*1and wo+ld think +* in the f+t+re1to fight bigotr&) his $+*er(an ca(*aign was easil& the cle%erest and *robabl& the (ost *rod+cti%e. It had the *recise effect he ho*ed" t+rning the 9lan's secrec& against itself) con%erting *recio+s knowledge into a((+nition for (ocker&. Instead of ro*ing in (illions of (e(bers as it had E+st a generation earlier) the 9lan lost (o(ent+( and began to fo+nder. Altho+gh the 9lan wo+ld ne%er =+ite die) es*eciall& down $o+th1Da%id D+ke) a s(ooth2talking 9lan leader fro( Lo+isiana) (o+nted legiti(ate bids for the .$. $enate and other offices1it was also ne%er =+ite the sa(e. In The Hier& !ross" The 9+ 9l+/ 9lan in A(erica) the historian ,&n !raig ,ade calls $tetson 9enned& .the single (ost i(*ortant factor in *re%enting a *ostwar re%i%al of the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan in the North.0 This did not ha**en beca+se 9enned& was co+rageo+s or resol+te or +nfla**able) e%en tho+gh he was all of these. It ha**ened beca+se 9enned& +nderstood the raw *ower of infor(ation. The 9+ 9l+/ 9lan

was a gro+* whose *ower1(+ch like that of *oliticians or real2estate agents or stockbrokers1was deri%ed in large *art fro( the fact that it hoarded infor(ation. Once that infor(ation falls into the wrong hands For) de*ending on &o+r *oint of %iew) the right handsG) (+ch of the gro+*'s ad%antage disa**ears.

In the late 4@@Bs) the *rice of ter( life ins+rance fell dra(aticall&. This *osed so(ething of a (&ster&) for the decline had no ob%io+s ca+se. Other t&*es of ins+rance) incl+ding health and a+to(obile and ho(eowners' co%erage) were certainl& not falling in *rice. Nor had there been an& radical changes a(ong ins+rance co(*anies) ins+rance brokers) or the *eo*le who b+& ter( life ins+rance. $o what ha**ened3 The Internet ha**ened. In the s*ring of 4@@A) Q+otes(ith.co( beca(e the first of se%eral websites that enabled a c+sto(er to co(*are) within seconds) the *rice of ter( life ins+rance sold b& doCens of different co(*anies. Hor s+ch websites) ter( life ins+rance was a *erfect *rod+ct. nlike other for(s of ins+rance1incl+ding whole life ins+rance) which is a far (ore co(*licated financial instr+(ent1ter( life *olicies are fairl& ho(ogeneo+s" one thirt&2&ear) g+aranteed *olic& for I4 (illion is essentiall& identical to the ne/t. $o what reall& (atters is the *rice. $ho**ing aro+nd for the chea*est *olic&) a *rocess that had been con%ol+ted and ti(e2cons+(ing) was s+ddenl& (ade si(*le. ,ith c+sto(ers able to instantaneo+sl& find the chea*est *olic&) the (ore e/*ensi%e co(*anies had no choice b+t to lower their *rices. $+ddenl& c+sto(ers were *a&ing I4 billion less a &ear for ter( life ins+rance.

It is worth noting that these websites onl& listed *rices< the& didn't e%en sell the *olicies. $o it wasn't reall& ins+rance the& were *eddling. Like $tetson 9enned&) the& were dealing in infor(ation. F#ad the Internet been aro+nd when 9enned& infiltrated the 9lan) he *robabl& wo+ld ha%e r+shed ho(e after each (eeting and blogged his brains o+t.G To be s+re) there are differences between e/*osing the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan and e/*osing ins+rance co(*anies' high *re(i+(s. The 9lan trafficked in secret infor(ation whose secrec& engendered fear) while ins+rance *rices were less a secret than a set of facts dis*ensed in a wa& that (ade co(*arisons diffic+lt. 6+t in both instances) the disse(ination of the infor(ation dil+ted its *ower. As $+*re(e !o+rt 5+stice Lo+is D. 6randeis once wrote) .$+nlight is said to be the best of disinfectants.0 Infor(ation is a beacon) a c+dgel) an oli%e branch) a deterrent) de*ending on who wields it and how. Infor(ation is so *owerf+l that the ass+(*tion of infor(ation) e%en if the infor(ation does not act+all& e/ist) can ha%e a sobering effect. !onsider the case of a one2 da&old car. The da& that a car is dri%en off the lot is the worst da& in its life) for it instantl& loses as (+ch as a =+arter of its %al+e. This (ight see( abs+rd) b+t we know it to be tr+e. A new car that was bo+ght for I8B)BBB cannot be resold for (ore than *erha*s I4D)BBB. ,h&3 6eca+se the onl& *erson who (ight logicall& want to resell a brand2 new car is so(eone who fo+nd the car to be a le(on. $o e%en if the car isn't a le(on) a *otential b+&er ass+(es that it is. #e ass+(es that the seller has so(e infor(ation abo+t the car that he) the b+&er) does not ha%e1and the seller is *+nished for this ass+(ed infor(ation. And if the car is a le(on3 The seller wo+ld do well to wait a &ear to sell it. 6& then) the s+s*icion of le(onness will ha%e faded< b& then) so(e

*eo*le will be selling their *erfectl& good &ear2old cars) and the le(on can blend in with the() likel& selling for (ore than it is tr+l& worth. It is co((on for one *art& to a transaction to ha%e better infor(ation than another *art&. In the *arlance of econo(ists) s+ch a case is known as an infor(ation as&((etr&. ,e acce*t as a %erit& of ca*italis( that so(eone F+s+all& an e/*ertG knows (ore than so(eone else F+s+all& a cons+(erG. 6+t infor(ation as&((etries e%er&where ha%e in fact been (ortall& wo+nded b& the Internet. Infor(ation is the c+rrenc& of the Internet. As a (edi+() the Internet is brilliantl& efficient at shifting infor(ation fro( the hands of those who ha%e it into the hands of those who do not. Often) as in the case of ter( life ins+rance *rices) the infor(ation e/isted b+t in a woef+ll& scattered wa&. FIn s+ch instances) the Internet acts like a gigantic horseshoe (agnet wa%ed o%er an endless sea of ha&stacks) *l+cking the needle o+t of each one.G 5+st as $tetson 9enned& acco(*lished what no Eo+rnalist) do2gooder) or *rosec+tor co+ld) the Internet has acco(*lished what no cons+(er ad%ocate co+ld" it has %astl& shr+nk the ga* between the e/*erts and the *+blic. The Internet has *ro%en *artic+larl& fr+itf+l for sit+ations in which a face2to2face enco+nter with an e/*ert (ight act+all& e/acerbate the *roble( of as&((etrical infor(ation1sit+ations in which an e/*ert +ses his infor(ational ad%antage to (ake +s feel st+*id or r+shed or chea* or ignoble. !onsider a scenario in which &o+r lo%ed one has E+st died and now the f+neral director1who knows that &o+ know ne/t to nothing abo+t his b+siness and are +nder e(otional d+ress to boot1 steers &o+ to the IK)BBB (ahogan& casket. Or consider the a+to(obile dealershi*" the sales(an does his best to obsc+re the car's base *rice +nder a (o+ntain of add2ons and incenti%es. Later) howe%er) in the cool2headed cal( of &o+r ho(e) &o+ can +se the Internet to find o+t

e/actl& how (+ch the dealer *aid the (an+fact+rer for that car. Or &o+ (ight E+st log on to www.Trib+teDirect.co( and b+& that (ahogan& casket &o+rself for E+st I;)8BB) deli%ered o%ernight. nless &o+ decide to s*end I8)@@D for .The Last #ole0 Fa casket with golf scenesG or .7e(ories of the #+nt0 Ffeat+ring big2racked b+cks and other *re&G or one of the (+ch chea*er (odels that the f+neral director so(ehow failed e%en to (ention.

The Internet) *owerf+l as it is) has hardl& slain the beast that is infor(ation as&((etr&. !onsider the so2called cor*orate scandals of the earl& 8BBBs. The cri(es co((itted b& Enron incl+ded hidden *artnershi*s) disg+ised debt) and the (ani*+lation of energ& (arkets. #enr& 6lodget of 7errill L&nch and 5ack :r+b(an of $alo(on $(ith 6arne& wrote glowing research re*orts of co(*anies the& knew to be E+nk. Hrank Q+attrone of !redit $+isse Hirst 6oston co%ered +* an in%estigation into how his co(*an& dished o+t shares of hot initial *+blic offerings. $a( ,aksal d+(*ed his I(!lone stock when he got earl& word of a da(aging re*ort fro( the Hood and Dr+g Ad(inistration< his friend 7artha $tewart also d+(*ed her shares) then lied abo+t the reason. ,orld!o( and :lobal !rossing fabricated billions of dollars in re%en+es to *+(* +* their stock *rices. One gro+* of (+t+al f+nd co(*anies let *referred c+sto(ers trade at *referred *rices) and another gro+* was charged with hiding (anage(ent fees. Tho+gh e/traordinaril& di%erse) these cri(es all ha%e a co((on trait" the& were sins of infor(ation. 7ost of the( in%ol%ed an e/*ert) or a gang of e/*erts) *ro(oting false infor(ation or hiding tr+e infor(ation< in each case the e/*erts were tr&ing to kee* the infor(ation as&((etr& as as&((etrical as *ossible.

The *ractitioners of s+ch acts) es*eciall& in the real( of high finance) ine%itabl& offer this defense" .E%er&bod& else was doing it.0 ,hich (a& be largel& tr+e. One characteristic of infor(ation cri(es is that %er& few of the( are detected. nlike street cri(es) the& do not lea%e nlike a bagel cri(inal1that is) behind a cor*se or a broken window.

so(eone who eats one of Pa+l Held(an's bagels b+t doesn't *a&1an infor(ation cri(inal t&*icall& doesn't ha%e so(eone like Held(an tall&ing e%er& nickel. Hor an infor(ation cri(e to reach the s+rface) so(ething drastic (+st ha**en. ,hen it does) the res+lts tend to be *rett& re%ealing. The *er*etrators) after all) weren't thinking abo+t their *ri%ate actions being (ade *+blic. !onsider the Enron ta*es) the secretl& recorded con%ersations of Enron e(*lo&ees that s+rfaced after the co(*an& i(*loded. D+ring a *hone con%ersation on A+g+st D) 8BBB) two traders chatted abo+t how a wildfire in !alifornia wo+ld allow Enron to Eack +* its electricit& *rices. .The (agical word of the da&)0 one trader said) .is R6+rn) 6ab&) 6+rn.'0 A few (onths later) a *air of Enron traders na(ed 9e%in and To( talked abo+t how !alifornia officials wanted to (ake Enron ref+nd the *rofits of its *rice go+ging. 9E>IN" The&'re f+cking taking all the (one& back fro( &o+ g+&s3 All the (one& &o+ g+&s stole fro( those *oor grand(as in !alifornia3 6O6" Yeah) :rand(a 7illie) (an. 9E>IN" Yeah) now she wants her f+cking (one& back for all the *ower &o+ Ea((ed right +* her ass for f+cking I8DB a (egawatt ho+r. If &o+ were to ass+(e that (an& e/*erts +se their infor(ation to &o+r detri(ent) &o+'d be right. E/*erts de*end on the fact that &o+ don't ha%e the infor(ation the& do. Or that &o+ are so bef+ddled b& the co(*le/it& of their o*eration that &o+ wo+ldn't know what to do with

the infor(ation if &o+ had it. Or that &o+ are so in awe of their e/*ertise that &o+ wo+ldn't dare challenge the(. If &o+r doctor s+ggests that &o+ ha%e angio*last&1e%en tho+gh so(e c+rrent research s+ggests that angio*last& often does little to *re%ent heart attacks1&o+ aren't likel& to think that the doctor is +sing his infor(ational ad%antage to (ake a few tho+sand dollars for hi(self or his b+dd&. 6+t as Da%id #illis) an inter%entional cardiologist at the ni%ersit& of Te/as $o+thwestern 7edical !enter in Dallas) e/*lained to the New York Ti(es) a doctor (a& ha%e the sa(e econo(ic incenti%es as a car sales(an or a f+neral director or a (+t+al f+nd (anager" .If &o+'re an in%asi%e cardiologist and 5oe $(ith) the local internist) is sending &o+ *atients) and if &o+ tell the( the& don't need the *roced+re) *rett& soon 5oe $(ith doesn't send *atients an&(ore.0 Ar(ed with infor(ation) e/*erts can e/ert a gigantic) if +ns*oken) le%erage" fear. Hear that &o+r children will find &o+ dead on the bathroo( floor of a heart attack if &o+ do not ha%e angio*last& s+rger&. Hear that a chea* casket will e/*ose &o+r grand(other to a terrible +ndergro+nd fate. Hear that a I8D)BBB car will cr+(*le like a to& in an accident) whereas a IDB)BBB car will wra* &o+r lo%ed ones in a cocoon of i(*regnable steel. The fear created b& co((ercial e/*erts (a& not =+ite ri%al the fear created b& terrorists like the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan) b+t the *rinci*le is the sa(e. !onsider a transaction that wo+ldn't see() on the s+rface) to create (+ch fear" selling &o+r ho+se. ,hat's so scar& abo+t that3 Aside fro( the fact that selling a ho+se is t&*icall& the largest financial transaction in &o+r life) and that &o+ *robabl& ha%e scant e/*erience in real estate) and that &o+ (a& ha%e an enor(o+s e(otional attach(ent to &o+r ho+se) there are at least two *ressing fears" that &o+ will sell the ho+se for far less than it is worth and that &o+ will not be able to sell it at all.

In the first case) &o+ fear setting the *rice too low< in the second) &o+ fear setting it too high. It is the Eob of &o+r real2estate agent) of co+rse) to find the golden (ean. $he is the one with all the infor(ation" the in%entor& of si(ilar ho+ses) the recent sales trends) the tre(ors of the (ortgage (arket) *erha*s e%en a lead on an interested b+&er. Yo+ feel fort+nate to ha%e s+ch a knowledgeable e/*ert as an all& in this (ost confo+nding enter*rise. Too bad she sees things differentl&. A real2estate agent (a& see &o+ not so (+ch as an all& b+t as a (ark. Think back to the st+d& cited at the beginning of this book) which (eas+red the difference between the sale *rices of ho(es that belonged to real2estate agents the(sel%es and the ho+ses the& sold for their clients. The st+d& fo+nd that an agent kee*s her own ho+se on the (arket an a%erage ten e/tra da&s) waiting for a better offer) and sells it for o%er ; *ercent (ore than &o+r ho+se1or I4B)BBB on the sale of a I;BB)BBB ho+se. That's I4B)BBB going into her *ocket that does not go into &o+rs) a nift& *rofit *rod+ced b& the ab+se of infor(ation and a keen +nderstanding of incenti%es. The *roble( is that the agent onl& stands to *ersonall& gain an additional I4DB b& selling &o+r ho+se for I4B)BBB (ore) which isn't (+ch reward for a lot of e/tra work. $o her Eob is to con%ince &o+ that a I;BB)BBB offer is in fact a %er& good offer) e%en a genero+s one) and that onl& a fool wo+ld ref+se it. This can be trick&. The agent does not want to co(e right o+t and call &o+ a fool. $o she (erel& i(*lies it1*erha*s b& telling &o+ abo+t the (+ch bigger) nicer) newer ho+se down the block that has sat +nsold for si/ (onths. #ere is the agent's (ain wea*on" the con%ersion of infor(ation into fear. !onsider this tr+e stor&) related b& 5ohn Donoh+e) a law *rofessor who in 8BB4 was teaching at $tanford ni%ersit&" .I was E+st abo+t to b+& a ho+se on the $tanford ca(*+s)0

he recalls) .and the seller's agent ke*t telling (e what a good deal I was getting beca+se the (arket was abo+t to Coo(. As soon as I signed the *+rchase contract) he asked (e if I wo+ld need an agent to sell (& *re%io+s $tanford ho+se. I told hi( that I wo+ld *robabl& tr& to sell witho+t an agent) and he re*lied) R5ohn) that (ight work +nder nor(al conditions) b+t with the (arket tanking now) &o+ reall& need the hel* of a broker.'0 ,ithin fi%e (in+tes) a Coo(ing (arket had tanked. $+ch are the (ar%els that can be conE+red b& an agent in search of the ne/t deal. !onsider now another tr+e stor& of a real2estate agent's infor(ation ab+se. The tale in%ol%es 9.) a close friend of one of this book's a+thors. 9. wanted to b+& a ho+se that was listed at I?A@)BBB. #e was *re*ared to offer I?DB)BBB b+t he first called the seller's agent and asked her to na(e the lowest *rice that she tho+ght the ho(eowner (ight acce*t. The agent *ro(*tl& scolded 9. .Yo+ o+ght to be asha(ed of &o+rself)0 she said. .That is clearl& a %iolation of real2estate ethics.0 9. a*ologiCed. The con%ersation t+rned to other) (ore (+ndane iss+es. After ten (in+tes) as the con%ersation was ending) the agent told 9.) .Let (e sa& one last thing. 7& client is willing to sell this ho+se for a lot less than &o+ (ight think.0 6ased on this con%ersation) 9. then offered I?8D)BBB for the ho+se instead of the I?DB)BBB he had *lanned to offer. In the end) the seller acce*ted I?;B)BBB. Thanks to his own agent's inter%ention) the seller lost at least I8B)BBB. The agent) (eanwhile) onl& lost I;BB1a s(all *rice to *a& to ens+re that she wo+ld =+ickl& and easil& lock +* the sale) which netted her a co((ission of IA)?DB.

$o a big *art of a real2estate agent's Eob) it wo+ld see() is to *ers+ade the ho(eowner to sell for less than he wo+ld like while at the sa(e ti(e letting *otential b+&ers know that a ho+se can be bo+ght for less than its listing *rice. To be s+re) there are (ore s+btle (eans of doing so than co(ing right o+t and telling the b+&er to bid low. The st+d& of real2estate agents cited abo%e also incl+des data that re%eals how agents con%e& infor(ation thro+gh the for2sale ads the& write. A *hrase like .well (aintained)0 for instance) is as f+ll of (eaning to an agent as .7r. A&ak0 was to a 9lans(an< it (eans that a ho+se is old b+t not =+ite falling down. A sa%%& b+&er will know this For find o+t for hi(self once he sees the ho+seG) b+t to the si/t&2fi%e2&ear2old retiree who is selling his ho+se) .well (aintained0 (ight so+nd like a co(*li(ent) which is E+st what the agent intends. An anal&sis of the lang+age +sed in real2estate ads shows that certain words are *owerf+ll& correlated with the final sale *rice of a ho+se. This doesn't necessaril& (ean that labeling a ho+se .well (aintained0 ca+ses it to sell for less than an e=+i%alent ho+se. It does) howe%er) indicate that when a real2estate agent labels a ho+se .well (aintained)0 she is s+btl& enco+raging a b+&er to bid low. Listed below are ten ter(s co((onl& +sed in real2estate ads. Hi%e of the( ha%e a strong *ositi%e correlation to the +lti(ate sales *rice) and fi%e ha%e a strong negati%e correlation. :+ess which are which.

Ten !o((on Real2Estate Ad Ter(s

Hantastic

:ranite $*acio+s $tate2of2the2Art P !orian !har(ing 7a*le :reat Neighborhood :o+r(et

A .fantastic0 ho+se is s+rel& fantastic eno+gh to warrant a high *rice) isn't3 ,hat abo+t a .char(ing0 and .s*acio+s0 ho+se in a .great neighborhoodP03 No) no) no) and no. #ere's the breakdown"

Hi%e Ter(s !orrelated to a #igher $ales Price

:ranite $tate2of2the2Art !orian

7a*le :o+r(et

Hi%e Ter(s !orrelated to a Lower $ales Price

Hantastic $*acio+s P !har(ing :reat Neighborhood

Three of the fi%e ter(s correlated with a higher sales *rice are *h&sical descri*tions of the ho+se itself" granite) !orian) and (a*le. As infor(ation goes) s+ch ter(s are s*ecific and straightforward1and therefore *rett& +sef+l. If &o+ like granite) &o+ (ight like the ho+se< b+t e%en if &o+ don't) .granite0 certainl& doesn't connote a fi/er2+**er. Nor does .go+r(et0 or .state2of2the2art)0 both of which see( to tell a b+&er that a ho+se is) on so(e le%el) tr+l& fantastic. .Hantastic)0 (eanwhile) is a dangero+sl& a(big+o+s adEecti%e) as is .char(ing.0 6oth these words see( to be real2estate agent code for a ho+se that doesn't ha%e (an& s*ecific attrib+tes worth describing. .$*acio+s0 ho(es) (eanwhile) are often decre*it or i(*ractical. .:reat neighborhood0 signals a b+&er that) well) this ho+se isn't %er&

nice b+t others nearb& (a& be. And an e/cla(ation *oint in a real2 estate ad is bad news for s+re) a bid to *a*er o%er real shortco(ings with false enth+sias(. If &o+ st+d& the words in the ad for a real2estate agent's own ho(e) (eanwhile) &o+ see that she indeed e(*hasiCes descri*ti%e ter(s Fes*eciall& .new)0 .granite)0 .(a*le)0 and .(o%e2in condition0G and a%oids e(*t& adEecti%es Fincl+ding .wonderf+l)0 .i((ac+late)0 and the telltale .P0G. Then she *atientl& waits for the best b+&er to co(e along. $he (ight tell this b+&er abo+t a ho+se nearb& that E+st sold for I8D)BBB abo%e the asking *rice) or another ho+se that is c+rrentl& the s+bEect of a bidding war. $he is caref+l to e/ercise e%er& ad%antage of the infor(ation as&((etr& she enEo&s. 6+t like the f+neral director and the car sales(an and the life2 ins+rance co(*an&) the real2estate agent has also seen her ad%antage eroded b& the Internet. After all) an&one selling a ho(e can now get online and gather her own infor(ation abo+t sales trends and ho+sing in%entor& and (ortgage rates. The infor(ation has been set loose. And recent sales data show the res+lts. Real2estate agents still get a higher *rice for their own ho(es than co(*arable ho(es owned b& their clients) b+t since the *roliferation of real2estate websites) the ga* between the two *rices has shr+nk b& a third.

It wo+ld be naS%e to s+**ose that *eo*le ab+se infor(ation onl& when the& are acting as e/*erts or agents of co((erce. Agents and e/*erts are *eo*le too1which s+ggests that we are likel& to ab+se infor(ation in o+r *ersonal li%es as well) whether b& withholding tr+e infor(ation or editing the infor(ation we choose to *+t forth. A real2estate agent

(a& wink and nod when she lists a .well2(aintained0 ho+se) b+t we each ha%e o+r e=+i%alent hedges. Think abo+t how &o+ describe &o+rself d+ring a Eob inter%iew %ers+s how &o+ (ight describe &o+rself on a first date. FHor e%en (ore f+n) co(*are that first2date con%ersation to a con%ersation with the sa(e *erson d+ring &o+r tenth &ear of (arriage.G Or think abo+t how &o+ (ight *resent &o+rself if &o+ were going on national tele%ision for the first ti(e. ,hat sort of i(age wo+ld &o+ want to *roEect3 Perha*s &o+ want to see( cle%er or kind or good2looking< *res+(abl& &o+ don't want to co(e off as cr+el or bigoted. D+ring the he&da& of the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan) its (e(bers took *ride in *+blicl& dis*araging an&bod& who wasn't a conser%ati%e white !hristian. 6+t *+blic bigotr& has since been %astl& c+rtailed. F$tetson 9enned&) now eight&2eight &ears old) attrib+tes this e%ol+tion in so(e *art to his long2ago .Hrown Power0 ca(*aign.G E%en s+btle dis*la&s of bigotr&) if the& beco(e *+blic) are now costl&. Trent Lott) the (aEorit& leader of the .$. $enate) learned this in 8BB8 after (aking a toast at a one h+ndredth birthda& *art& for $tro( Th+r(ond) his fellow senator and fellow so+therner. Lott (ade a reference in his toast to Th+r(ond's 4@?M ca(*aign for *resident) which was b+ilt on a *latfor( of segregation< 7ississi**i1Lott's ho(e state1was one of E+st fo+r states that Th+r(ond carried. .,e're *ro+d of it)0 Lott told the *art&goers. .And if the rest of the co+ntr& had followed o+r lead) we wo+ldn't ha%e had all these *roble(s o%er all these &ears either.0 The i(*lication that Lott was a fan of segregation raised eno+gh of a f+r& that he was forced to =+it his $enate leadershi* *ost.

E%en if &o+ are a *ri%ate citiCen) &o+ s+rel& wo+ldn't want to see( bigoted while a**earing in *+blic. 7ight there be a wa& to test for discri(ination in a *+blic setting3 nlikel& as it (a& see() the tele%ision ga(e show The ,eakest Link *ro%ides a +ni=+e laborator& to st+d& discri(ination. An i(*ort fro( the nited 9ingdo() The ,eakest Link for a short ti(e beca(e wildl& nited $tates. The ga(e incl+des eight contestants For) *o*+lar in the

in a later da&ti(e %ersion) si/G who each answer tri%ia =+estions and co(*ete for a single cash Eack*ot. 6+t the *la&er who answers the (ost =+estions correctl& isn't necessaril& the *la&er who ad%ances. After each ro+nd) e%er& contestant %otes to eli(inate one other contestant. A *la&er's tri%ia2answering abilit& is *res+(abl& the onl& worthwhile factor to consider< race) gender) and age wo+ldn't see( to (atter. 6+t do the&3 6& (eas+ring a contestant's act+al %otes against the %otes that wo+ld tr+l& best ser%e his self2interest) it's *ossible to tell if discri(ination is at *la&. The %oting strateg& changes as the ga(e *rogresses. In the first se%eral ro+nds) it (akes sense to eli(inate bad *la&ers since the Eack*ot grows onl& when correct answers are gi%en. In later ro+nds) the strategic incenti%es are fli**ed. The %al+e of b+ilding the Eack*ot is now o+tweighed b& each contestant's desire to win the Eack*ot. It's easier to do that if &o+ eli(inate the other good *la&ers. $o) ro+ghl& s*eaking) the t&*ical contestant will %ote to eli(inate the worse *la&ers in the earl& ro+nds and the better *la&ers in the later ro+nds. The ke& to (eas+ring the ,eakest Link %oting data is to tease o+t a contestant's *la&ing abilit& fro( his race) gender) and age. If a &o+ng black (an answers a lot of =+estions correctl& b+t is %oted off earl&) discri(ination wo+ld see( to be a factor. 7eanwhile) if an elderl& white wo(an doesn't answer a single =+estion correctl& and is still not

%oted off) so(e sort of discri(inator& fa%oritis( wo+ld see( to be at *la&. Again) kee* in (ind that all of this is ha**ening on ca(era. A contestant knows that his friends) fa(il&) and co2workers are watching. $o who) if an&one) is discri(inated against on The ,eakest Link3 Not) as it t+rns o+t) blacks. An anal&sis of (ore than 4AB e*isodes re%eals that black contestants) in both the earl& and late ro+nds of the ga(e) are eli(inated at a rate co((ens+rate with their tri%ia2 answering abilities. The sa(e is tr+e for fe(ale contestants. In a wa&) neither of these findings is so s+r*rising. Two of the (ost *otent social ca(*aigns of the *ast half2cent+r& were the ci%il rights (o%e(ent and the fe(inist (o%e(ent) which de(oniCed discri(ination against blacks and wo(en) res*ecti%el&. $o *erha*s) &o+ sa& ho*ef+ll&) discri(ination was *racticall&

eradicated d+ring the twentieth cent+r&) like *olio. Or (ore likel&) it has beco(e so +nfashionable to discri(inate against certain gro+*s that all b+t the (ost insensiti%e *eo*le take *ains to at least a**ear fair2(inded) at least in *+blic. This hardl& (eans that discri(ination itself has ended1onl& that *eo*le are e(barrassed to show it. #ow (ight &o+ deter(ine whether the lack of discri(ination against blacks and wo(en re*resents a tr+e absence or E+st a charade3 The answer can be fo+nd b& looking at other gro+*s that societ& doesn't *rotect as well. Indeed) the ,eakest Link %oting data do indicate two kinds of contestants who are consistentl& discri(inated against" the elderl& and #is*anics. A(ong econo(ists) there are two leading theories of discri(ination. Interestingl&) elderl& ,eakest Link contestants see( to s+ffer fro( one

t&*e) while #is*anics s+ffer the other. The first t&*e is called taste2 based discri(ination) which (eans that one *erson discri(inates si(*l& beca+se he *refers to not interact with a *artic+lar t&*e of other *erson. In the second t&*e) known as infor(ation2based discri(ination) one *erson belie%es that another t&*e of *erson has *oor skills) and acts accordingl&. On The ,eakest Link) #is*anics s+ffer infor(ation2based

discri(ination. Other contestants see( to %iew the #is*anics as *oor *la&ers) e%en when the& are not. This *erce*tion translates into #is*anics' being eli(inated in the earl& ro+nds e%en if the& are doing well and not being eli(inated in the later ro+nds) when other contestants want to kee* the #is*anics aro+nd to weaken the field. Elderl& *la&ers) (eanwhile) are %icti(s of taste2based discri(ination" in the earl& ro+nds and late ro+nds) the& are eli(inated far o+t of *ro*ortion to their skills. It see(s as if the other contestants1this is a show on which the a%erage age is thirt&2fo+r1si(*l& don't want the older *la&ers aro+nd. It's =+ite *ossible that a t&*ical ,eakest Link contestant isn't e%en cogniCant of his discri(ination toward #is*anics and the elderl& For) in the case of blacks and wo(en) his lack of discri(inationG. #e is bo+nd to be ner%o+s) after all) and e/cited) *la&ing a fast2(o%ing ga(e +nder the glare of tele%ision lights. ,hich nat+rall& s+ggest another =+estion" how (ight that sa(e *erson e/*ress his *references1and re%eal infor(ation abo+t hi(self1in the *ri%ac& of his ho(e3

In a gi%en &ear) so(e fort& (illion A(ericans swa* inti(ate tr+ths abo+t the(sel%es with co(*lete strangers. It all ha**ens on Internet

dating sites. $o(e of the() like 7atch.co() e#ar(on&.co() and Yahoo $ingles) a**eal to a broad a+dience. Others cater to (ore s*ecific tastes" !hristian$ingles.co() 5Date.co() and Latin7atcher.co() :a&.co(. Dating 6lack$ingles!onnection.co() $7ilitar&$ingles.co() Internet. Each site o*erates a bit differentl&) b+t the gist is this" Yo+ co(*ose a *ersonal ad abo+t &o+rself that t&*icall& incl+des a *hoto) %ital statistics) &o+r inco(e range) le%el of ed+cation) likes and dislikes) and so on. If the ad catches so(eone's fanc&) that so(eone will e2(ail &o+ and *erha*s arrange a date. On (an& sites) &o+ also s*ecif& &o+r dating ai(s" .long2ter( relationshi*)0 .a cas+al lo%er)0 or .E+st looking.0 $o there are two (assi%e la&ers of data to be (ined here" the infor(ation that *eo*le incl+de in their ads and the le%el of res*onse gleaned b& an& *artic+lar ad. Each la&er of the data can be asked its own =+estion. In the case of the ads) how forthright Fand honestG are *eo*le when it co(es to sharing their *ersonal infor(ation3 And in the case of the res*onses) what kind of infor(ation in *ersonal ads is considered the (ost Fand leastG desirable3 Two econo(ists and a *s&chologist recentl& banded together to address these =+estions. Ali #ortaTs+) :Unter 5. #itsch) and Dan Ariel& anal&Ced the data fro( one of the (ainstrea( dating sites) foc+sing on ro+ghl& ;B)BBB +sers) half in 6oston and half in $an Diego. Hift&2 se%en *ercent of the +sers were (en) and the (edian age range for all +sers was twent&2si/ to thirt&2fi%e. Altho+gh the& re*resented an ade=+ate racial (i/ to reach so(e concl+sions abo+t race) the& were *redo(inantl& white. !o+ntr&,estern$ingles.co()

Pl+s$iCe$ingles.co()

websites are the (ost s+ccessf+l s+bscri*tion2based b+siness on the

The& were also a lot richer) taller) skinnier) and better2looking than a%erage. That) at least) is what the& wrote abo+t the(sel%es. 7ore than ? *ercent of the online daters clai(ed to earn (ore than I8BB)BBB a &ear) whereas fewer than 4 *ercent of t&*ical Internet +sers act+all& earn that (+ch) s+ggesting that three of the fo+r big earners were e/aggerating. 7ale and fe(ale +sers t&*icall& re*orted that the& are abo+t an inch taller than the national a%erage. As for weight) the (en were in line with the national a%erage) b+t the wo(en t&*icall& said the& weighed abo+t twent& *o+nds less than the national a%erage. 7ost i(*ressi%el&) f+ll& KB *ercent of the wo(en clai(ed .abo%e a%erage0 looks) incl+ding 8? *ercent clai(ing .%er& good looks.0 The online (en too were gorgeo+s" AK *ercent called the(sel%es .abo%e a%erage)0 incl+ding 84 *ercent with .%er& good looks.0 This lea%es onl& abo+t ;B *ercent of the +sers with .a%erage0 looks) incl+ding a *altr& 4 *ercent with .less than a%erage0 looks1which s+ggests that the t&*ical online dater is either a fab+list) a narcissist) or si(*l& resistant to the (eaning of .a%erage.0 FOr *erha*s the& are all E+st realists" as an& real2estate agent knows) the t&*ical ho+se isn't .char(ing0 or .fantastic)0 b+t +nless &o+ sa& it is) no one will e%en bother to take a look.G Twent&2eight *ercent of the wo(en on the site said the& were blond) a n+(ber far be&ond the national a%erage) which indicates a lot of d&eing) or l&ing) or both. $o(e +sers) (eanwhile) were bracingl& honest. Eight *ercent of the (en1abo+t 4 in e%er& 481conceded that the& were (arried) with half of these M *ercent re*orting that the& were .ha**il& (arried.0 6+t the fact that the& were honest doesn't (ean the& were rash. Of the 8DM .ha**il& (arried0 (en in the sa(*le) onl& @ chose to *ost a *ict+re of the(sel%es. The reward of gaining a (istress was e%identl&

o+tweighed b& the risk of ha%ing &o+r wife disco%er &o+r *ersonal ad. F.And what were &o+ doing on that website30 the h+sband (ight bl+ster) +ndo+btedl& to little a%ail.G Of the (an& wa&s to fail on a dating website) not *osting a *hoto of &o+rself is *erha*s the (ost certain. FNot that the *hoto necessaril& is a *hoto of &o+rself< it (a& well be so(e better2looking stranger) b+t s+ch dece*tion wo+ld ob%io+sl& backfire in ti(e.G A (an who does not incl+de his *hoto gets onl& one2fo+rth the %ol+(e of e2(ail res*onse of a (an who does< a wo(an who doesn't incl+de her *hoto gets onl& one2si/th the res*onse. A low2inco(e) *oorl& ed+cated) +nha**il& e(*lo&ed) not2%er&2attracti%e) slightl& o%erweight) and balding (an who *osts his *hoto stands a better chance of gleaning so(e e2(ails than a (an who sa&s he (akes I8BB)BBB and is deadl& handso(e b+t doesn't *ost a *hoto. There are *lent& of reasons so(eone (ight not *ost a *hoto1he's technicall& challenged or is asha(ed of being s*otted b& friends or is E+st *lain +nattracti%e1b+t as in the case of a brand2new car with a for2sale sign) *ros*ecti%e c+sto(ers will ass+(e he's got so(ething serio+sl& wrong +nder the hood. :etting a date is hard eno+gh as it is. Hift&2se%en *ercent of the (en who *ost ads don't recei%e e%en one e2(ail< 8; *ercent of the wo(en don't get a single res*onse. The traits that do draw a big res*onse) (eanwhile) will not be a big s+r*rise to an&one with e%en a *assing knowledge of the se/es. In fact) the *references e/*ressed b& online daters fit sn+gl& with the (ost co((on stereot&*es abo+t (en and wo(en. Hor instance) (en who sa& the& want a long2ter( relationshi* do (+ch better than (en looking for an occasional lo%er. 6+t wo(en looking for an occasional lo%er do great. Hor (en) a wo(an's looks are of *ara(o+nt i(*ortance. Hor wo(en) a (an's inco(e is terribl&

i(*ortant. The richer a (an is) the (ore e2(ails he recei%es. 6+t a wo(an's inco(e a**eal is a bell2sha*ed c+r%e" (en do not want to date low2earning wo(en) b+t once a wo(an starts earning too (+ch) the& see( to be scared off. 7en want to date st+dents) artists) (+sicians) %eterinarians) and celebrities Fwhile a%oiding secretaries) retirees) and wo(en in the (ilitar& and law enforce(entG. ,o(en do want to date (ilitar& (en) *olice(en) and fire(en F*ossibl& the res+lt of a @L44 Effect) like the higher *a&(ents to Pa+l Held(an's bagel b+sinessG) along with law&ers and financial e/ec+ti%es. ,o(en a%oid laborers) actors) st+dents) and (en who work in food ser%ices or hos*italit&. Hor (en) being short is a big disad%antage Fwhich is *robabl& wh& so (an& lie abo+t itG) b+t weight doesn't (+ch (atter. Hor wo(en) being o%erweight is deadl& Fwhich is *robabl& wh& the& lieG. Hor a (an) ha%ing red hair or c+rl& hair is a downer) as is baldness 1b+t a sha%ed head is oka&. Hor a wo(an) salt2and2*e**er hair is bad) while blond hair is %er& good. In the world of online dating) a headf+l of blond hair on a wo(an is worth abo+t the sa(e as ha%ing a college degree1and) with a I4BB d&e Eob %ers+s a I4BB)BBB t+ition bill) an awf+l lot chea*er. In addition to all the infor(ation abo+t inco(e) ed+cation) and looks) (en and wo(en on the dating site listed their race. The& were also asked to indicate a *reference regarding the race of their *otential dates. The two *references were .the sa(e as (ine0 or .it doesn't (atter.0 Like the ,eakest Link contestants) the website +sers were now *+blicl& declaring how the& felt abo+t *eo*le who didn't look like the(. The& wo+ld act on their act+al *references later) in confidential e2(ails to the *eo*le the& wanted to date. Ro+ghl& half of the white wo(en on the site and MB *ercent of the white (en declared that race didn't (atter to the(. 6+t the res*onse

data tell a different stor&. The white (en who said that race didn't (atter sent @B *ercent of their e2(ail =+eries to white wo(en. The white wo(en who said race didn't (atter sent abo+t @K *ercent of their e2(ail =+eries to white (en. Is it *ossible that race reall& didn't (atter for these white wo(en and (en and that the& si(*l& ne%er ha**ened to browse a nonwhite date that interested the(3 Or) (ore likel&) did the& sa& that race didn't (atter beca+se the& wanted to co(e across1es*eciall& to *otential (ates of their own race1as o*en2(inded3

The g+lf between the infor(ation we *+blicl& *roclai( and the infor(ation we know to be tr+e is often %ast. FOr) *+t a (ore fa(iliar wa&" we sa& one thing and do another.G This can be seen in *ersonal relationshi*s) in co((ercial transactions) and of co+rse in *olitics. 6& now we are f+ll& acc+sto(ed to the false *+blic *rocla(ations of *oliticians the(sel%es. 6+t %oters lie too. !onsider an election between a black candidate and a white candidate. 7ight white %oters lie to *ollsters) clai(ing the& will %ote for the black candidate in order to a**ear (ore color2blind than the& act+all& are3 A**arentl& so. In New York !it&'s 4@M@ (a&oral race between Da%id Dinkins Fa black candidateG and R+dol*h :i+liani Fwho is whiteG) Dinkins won b& onl& a few *oints. Altho+gh Dinkins beca(e the cit&'s first black (a&or) his slender (argin of %ictor& ca(e as a s+r*rise) for *re2election *olls showed Dinkins winning b& nearl& 4D *oints. ,hen the white s+*re(acist Da%id D+ke ran for the .$. $enate in 4@@B) he garnered nearl& 8B *ercent (ore of the %ote than *re2election *olls had *roEected) an indication that tho+sands of Lo+isiana %oters did not want to ad(it their *reference for a candidate with racist %iews.

D+ke) tho+gh he ne%er won the high *olitical office he often so+ght) *ro%ed hi(self a (aster of infor(ation ab+se. As :rand ,iCard of the 9nights of the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan) he was able to co(*ile a (ailing list of tho+sands of rank2and2file 9lans(en and other s+**orters who wo+ld e%ent+all& beco(e his *olitical base. Not content to +se the list onl& for hi(self) he sold it for I4DB)BBB to the go%ernor of Lo+isiana. Years later) D+ke wo+ld once again +se the list hi(self) letting his s+**orters know that he'd fallen on hard ti(es and needed their donations. In this wa& D+ke was able to raise h+ndreds of tho+sands of dollars for his contin+ing work in the field of white s+*re(ac&. #e had e/*lained to his s+**orters in a letter that he was so broke that the bank was tr&ing to re*ossess his ho+se. In tr+th) D+ke had alread& sold his ho+se for a solid *rofit. FIt isn't known whether he +sed a real2estate agent.G And (ost of the (one& he raised fro( his s+**orters was being +sed not to *ro(ote an& white s+*re(acist ca+se b+t rather to satisf& D+ke's ga(bling habit. It was a sweet little sca( he was r+nning1+ntil he was arrested and sent to federal *rison in 6ig $*ring) Te/as. Le%itt fits e%er&where and nowhere. #e is a noetic b+tterfl& that no one has *inned down Fhe was once offered a Eob on the !linton econo(ic tea() and the 8BBB 6+sh ca(*aign asked hi( abo+t being a cri(e ad%isorG b+t who is clai(ed b& all. #e has co(e to be acknowledged as a (aster of the si(*le) cle%er sol+tion. #e is the g+& who) in the sla*stick scenario) sees all the engineers f+tCing with a broken (achine1and then realiCes that no one has tho+ght to *l+g it in. 1T#E N E, Y OR9 T I7E$ 7 A:AJINE) A : $T ;) 8BB;

5 .h

!o !rug !e$lers Still #ive 1ith

'heir Moms/
The two *re%io+s cha*ters were b+ilt aro+nd a *air of ad(ittedl& freakish =+estions" ,hat do schoolteachers and s+(o wrestlers ha%e in co((on3 and #ow is the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan like a gro+* of real2estate agents3 6+t if &o+ ask eno+gh =+estions) strange as the& see( at the ti(e) &o+ (a& e%ent+all& learn so(ething worthwhile. The first trick of asking =+estions is to deter(ine if &o+r =+estion is a good one. 5+st beca+se a =+estion has ne%er been asked does not (ake it good. $(art *eo*le ha%e been asking =+estions for =+ite a few cent+ries now) so (an& of the =+estions that ha%en't been asked are bo+nd to &ield +ninteresting answers. 6+t if &o+ can =+estion so(ething that *eo*le reall& care abo+t and find an answer that (a& s+r*rise the(1that is) if &o+ can o%ert+rn the con%entional wisdo(1then &o+ (a& ha%e so(e l+ck. It was 5ohn 9enneth :albraith) the h&*erliterate econo(ic sage) who coined the *hrase .con%entional wisdo(.0 #e did not consider it a co(*li(ent. .,e associate tr+th with con%enience)0 he wrote) .with what (ost closel& accords with self2interest and *ersonal well2being or *ro(ises best to a%oid awkward effort or +nwelco(e dislocation of life. ,e also find highl& acce*table what contrib+tes (ost to self2estee(.0 Econo(ic and social beha%ior) :albraith contin+ed) .are co(*le/) and to co(*rehend their character is (entall& tiring. Therefore we adhere) as tho+gh to a raft) to those ideas which re*resent o+r +nderstanding.0 $o the con%entional wisdo( in :albraith's %iew (+st be si(*le) con%enient) co(fortable) and co(forting1tho+gh not necessaril& tr+e.

It wo+ld be sill& to arg+e that the con%entional wisdo( is ne%er tr+e. 6+t noticing where the con%entional wisdo( (a& be false1noticing) *erha*s) the contrails of slo**& or self2interested thinking1is a nice *lace to start asking =+estions. !onsider the recent histor& of ho(elessness in the nited $tates. In

the earl& 4@MBs) an ad%ocate for the ho(eless na(ed 7itch $n&der took to sa&ing that there were abo+t ; (illion ho(eless A(ericans. The *+blic d+l& sat +* and took notice. 7ore than 4 of e%er& 4BB *eo*le were ho(eless3 That s+re see(ed high) b+t-well) the e/*ert said it. A heretofore =+iescent *roble( was s+ddenl& cata*+lted into the national conscio+sness. $n&der e%en testified before !ongress abo+t the (agnit+de of the *roble(. #e also re*ortedl& told a college a+dience that ?D ho(eless *eo*le die each second1which wo+ld (ean a who**ing 4.? billion dead ho(eless e%er& &ear. FThe .$. *o*+lation at the ti(e was abo+t 88D (illion.G Ass+(ing that $n&der (iss*oke or was (is=+oted and (eant to sa& that one ho(eless *erson died e%er& fort&2fi%e seconds) that's still KB4)BBB dead ho(eless *eo*le e%er& &ear1ro+ghl& one2third of all deaths in the nited $tates. #((. lti(atel&) when $n&der was *ressed on his fig+re of ; (illion ho(eless) he ad(itted that it was a fabrication. 5o+rnalists had been ho+nding hi( for a s*ecific n+(ber) he said) and he hadn't wanted the( to walk awa& e(*t&2handed. It (a& be sad b+t not s+r*rising to learn that e/*erts like $n&der can be self2interested to the *oint of deceit. 6+t the& cannot decei%e on their own. 5o+rnalists need e/*erts as badl& as e/*erts need Eo+rnalists. E%er& da& there are news*a*er *ages and tele%ision newscasts to be filled) and an e/*ert who can deli%er a Earring *iece of wisdo( is alwa&s welco(e. ,orking together) Eo+rnalists and e/*erts are the architects of (+ch con%entional wisdo(.

Ad%ertising too is a brilliant tool for creating con%entional wisdo(. Listerine) for instance) was in%ented in the nineteenth cent+r& as a *owerf+l s+rgical antise*tic. It was later sold) in distilled for() as a floor cleaner and a c+re for gonorrhea. 6+t it wasn't a r+nawa& s+ccess +ntil the 4@8Bs) when it was *itched as a sol+tion for .chronic halitosis01a then obsc+re (edical ter( for bad breath. Listerine's new ads feat+red forlorn &o+ng wo(en and (en) eager for (arriage b+t t+rned off b& their (ate's rotten breath. .!an I be ha**& with hi( in s*ite of that30 one (aiden asked herself. ntil that ti(e) bad breath was not con%entionall& considered s+ch a catastro*he. 6+t Listerine changed that. As the ad%ertising scholar 5a(es 6. Twitchell writes) .Listerine did not (ake (o+thwash as (+ch as it (ade halitosis.0 In E+st se%en &ears) the co(*an&'s re%en+es rose fro( I44D)BBB to (ore than IM (illion. #owe%er created) the con%entional wisdo( can be hard to b+dge. Pa+l 9r+g(an) the New York Ti(es col+(nist and de%o+t critic of :eorge ,. 6+sh) be(oaned this fact as the President's reelection ca(*aign got +nder wa& in earl& 8BB?" .The a**ro%ed stor& line abo+t 7r. 6+sh is that he's a bl+ff) honest) *lains*oken g+&) and anecdotes that fit that stor& get re*orted. 6+t if the con%entional wisdo( were instead that he's a *hon&) a sil%er2s*oon bab& who *retends to be a cowbo&) Eo+rnalists wo+ld ha%e *lent& of (aterial to work with.0 In the (onths leading +* to .$. in%asion of Ira= in 8BB;) d+eling

e/*erts floated dia(etricall& o**osite forecasts abo+t Ira='s wea*ons of (ass destr+ction. 6+t (ore often) as with 7itch $n&der's ho(eless .statistics)0 one side wins the war of con%entional wisdo(. ,o(en's rights ad%ocates) for instance) ha%e h&*ed the incidence of se/+al assa+lt) clai(ing that one in three A(erican wo(en will in their lifeti(e be a %icti( of ra*e or atte(*ted ra*e. FThe act+al fig+re is

(ore like one in eight1b+t the ad%ocates know it wo+ld take a callo+s *erson to *+blicl& dis*+te their clai(s.G Ad%ocates working for the c+res of %ario+s tragic diseases reg+larl& do the sa(e. ,h& not3 A little creati%e l&ing can draw attention) indignation) and1*erha*s (ost i(*ortant1the (one& and *olitical ca*ital to address the act+al *roble(. Of co+rse an e/*ert) whether a wo(en's health ad%ocate or a *olitical ad%isor or an ad%ertising e/ec+ti%e) tends to ha%e different incenti%es than the rest of +s. And an e/*ert's incenti%es (a& shift 4MB degrees) de*ending on the sit+ation. !onsider the *olice. A recent a+dit disco%ered that the *olice in Atlanta were radicall& +nderre*orting cri(e since the earl& 4@@Bs. The *ractice a**arentl& began when Atlanta was working to land the 4@@A Ol&(*ics. The cit& needed to shed its %iolent i(age) and fast. $o each &ear tho+sands of cri(e re*orts were either downgraded fro( %iolent to non%iolent or si(*l& thrown awa&. FDes*ite these contin+ing efforts 1there were (ore than 88)BBB (issing *olice re*orts in 8BB8 alone1 Atlanta reg+larl& ranks a(ong the (ost %iolent A(erican cities.G Police in other cities) (eanwhile) were s*inning a different stor& d+ring the 4@@Bs. The s+dden) %iolent a**earance of crack cocaine had *olice de*art(ents across the co+ntr& scra**ing for reso+rces. The& (ade it known that it wasn't a fair fight" the dr+g dealers were ar(ed with state2of2the2art wea*ons and a botto(less s+**l& of cash. This e(*hasis on illicit cash *ro%ed to be a winning effort) for nothing inf+riated the law2abiding *o*+lace (ore than the i(age of the (illionaire crack dealer. The (edia eagerl& glo((ed on to this stor&) *ortra&ing crack dealing as one of the (ost *rofitable Eobs in A(erica.

6+t if &o+ were to ha%e s*ent a little ti(e aro+nd the ho+sing *roEects where crack was so often sold) &o+ (ight ha%e noticed so(ething strange" not onl& did (ost of the crack dealers still li%e in the *roEects) b+t (ost of the( still li%ed at ho(e with their (o(s. And then &o+ (a& ha%e scratched &o+r head and said) .,h& is that30 The answer lies in finding the right data) and the secret to finding the right data +s+all& (eans finding the right *erson1(ore easil& said than done. Dr+g dealers are rarel& trained in econo(ics) and econo(ists rarel& hang o+t with crack dealers. $o the answer to this =+estion begins with finding so(eone who did li%e a(ong the dr+g dealers and (anaged to walk awa& with the secrets of their trade.

$+dhir >enkatesh1his bo&hood friends called hi( $id) b+t he has since re%erted to $+dhir1was born in India) raised in the s+b+rbs of +*state New York and so+thern !alifornia) and grad+ated fro( the began to *+rs+e his PhD in sociolog& at the ni%ersit& of !alifornia at $an Diego with a degree in (athe(atics. In 4@M@ he ni%ersit& of !hicago. #e was interested in +nderstanding how &o+ng *eo*le for( their identities< to that end) he had E+st s*ent three (onths following the :ratef+l Dead aro+nd the co+ntr&. ,hat he was not interested in was the gr+eling fieldwork that t&*ifies sociolog&. 6+t his grad+ate ad%isor) the e(inent *o%ert& scholar ,illia( 5+li+s ,ilson) *ro(*tl& sent >enkatesh into the field. #is assign(ent" to %isit !hicago's *oorest black neighborhoods with a cli*board and a se%ent&2 =+estion) (+lti*le2choice s+r%e&. This was the first =+estion on the s+r%e&" #ow do &o+ feel abo+t being black and *oor3

4. >er& bad 8. 6ad ;. Neither bad nor good ?. $o(ewhat good D. >er& good One da& >enkatesh walked twent& blocks fro( the +ni%ersit& to a ho+sing *roEect on the shore of Lake 7ichigan to ad(inister his s+r%e&. The *roEect co(*rised three si/teen2stor& b+ildings (ade of &ellow2 gra& brick. >enkatesh soon disco%ered that the na(es and addresses he had been gi%en were badl& o+tdated. These b+ildings were conde(ned) *racticall& abandoned. $o(e fa(ilies li%ed on the lower floors) *irating water and electricit&) b+t the ele%ators didn't work. Neither did the lights in the stairwell. It was late afternoon in earl& winter) nearl& dark o+tside. >enkatesh) who is a tho+ghtf+l) handso(e) and well b+ilt b+t not aberrationall& bra%e *erson) had (ade his wa& +* to the si/th floor) tr&ing to find so(eone willing to take his s+r%e&. $+ddenl&) on the stairwell landing) he startled a gro+* of teenagers shooting dice. The& t+rned o+t to be a gang of E+nior2le%el crack dealers who o*erated o+t of the b+ilding) and the& were not ha**& to see hi(. .I'( a st+dent at the ni%ersit& of !hicago)0 >enkatesh s*+ttered)

sticking to his s+r%e& scri*t) .and I a( ad(inistering10 .H+ck &o+) nigger) what are &o+ doing in o+r stairwell30 There was an ongoing gang war in !hicago. Things had been %iolent latel&) with shootings nearl& e%er& da&. This gang) a branch of the 6lack :angster Disci*le Nation) was *lainl& on edge. The& didn't know what to (ake of >enkatesh. #e didn't see( to be a (e(ber of a ri%al

gang. 6+t (a&be he was so(e kind of s*&3 #e certainl& wasn't a co*. #e wasn't black) wasn't white. #e wasn't e/actl& threatening1he was ar(ed onl& with his cli*board1b+t he didn't see( =+ite har(less either. Thanks to his three (onths trailing the :ratef+l Dead) he still looked) as he wo+ld later *+t it) .like a gen+ine freak) with hair down to (& ass.0 The gang (e(bers started arg+ing o%er what sho+ld be done with >enkatesh. Let hi( go3 6+t if he did tell the ri%al gang abo+t this stairwell hango+t) the&'d be s+sce*tible to a s+r*rise attack. One Eitter& kid ke*t wagging so(ething back and forth in his hands1in the di((ing light) >enkatesh e%ent+all& realiCed it was a g+n1and (+ttering) .Let (e ha%e hi() let (e ha%e hi(.0 >enkatesh was %er&) %er& scared. The crowd grew) bigger and lo+der. Then an older gang (e(ber a**eared. #e snatched the cli*board fro( >enkatesh's hands and) when he saw that it was a written =+estionnaire) looked *+CCled. .I can't read an& of this shit)0 he said. .That's beca+se &o+ can't read)0 said one of the teenagers) and e%er&one la+ghed at the older gangster. #e told >enkatesh to go ahead and ask hi( a =+estion fro( the s+r%e&. >enkatesh led with the how2does2it2feel2to2be2black2and2*oor =+estion. It was (et with a ro+nd of g+ffaws) so(e angrier than others. As >enkatesh wo+ld later tell his +ni%ersit& colleag+es) he realiCed that the (+lti*le2choice answers A thro+gh E were ins+fficient. In realit&) he now knew) the answers sho+ld ha%e looked like this" 4. >er& bad 8. 6ad

;. Neither bad nor good ?. $o(ewhat good D. >er& good A. H+ck &o+ 5+st as things were looking their bleakest for >enkatesh) another (an a**eared. This was 5. T.) the gang's leader. 5. T. wanted to know what was going on. Then he told >enkatesh to read hi( the s+r%e& =+estion. #e listened b+t then said he co+ldn't answer the =+estion beca+se he wasn't black. .,ell then)0 >enkatesh said) .how does it feel to be African A(erican and *oor30 .I ain't no African A(erican either) &o+ idiot. I'( a nigger.0 5. T. then ad(inistered a li%el& tho+gh not +nfriendl& ta/ono(ical lesson in .nigger0 %ers+s .African A(erican0 %ers+s .black.0 ,hen he was thro+gh) there was an awkward silence. $till nobod& see(ed to know what to do with >enkatesh. 5. T.) who was in his late twenties) had cooled down his s+bordinates) b+t he didn't see( to want to interfere directl& with their catch. Darkness fell and 5. T. left. .Peo*le don't co(e o+t of here ali%e)0 the Eitter& teenager with the g+n told >enkatesh. .Yo+ know that) don't &o+30 As night dee*ened) his ca*tors eased +*. The& ga%e >enkatesh one of their beers) and then another and another. ,hen he had to *ee) he went where the& went1on the stairwell landing one floor +*. 5. T. sto**ed b& a few ti(es d+ring the night b+t didn't ha%e (+ch to sa&. Da&break ca(e and then noon. >enkatesh wo+ld occasionall& tr& to disc+ss his s+r%e&) b+t the &o+ng crack dealers E+st la+ghed and told hi( how st+*id his =+estions were. Hinall&) nearl& twent&2fo+r ho+rs after >enkatesh st+(bled +*on the() the& set hi( free.

#e went ho(e and took a shower. #e was relie%ed b+t he was also c+rio+s. It str+ck >enkatesh that (ost *eo*le) incl+ding hi(self) had ne%er gi%en (+ch tho+ght to the dail& life of ghetto cri(inals. #e was now eager to learn how the 6lack Disci*les worked) fro( to* to botto(. After a few ho+rs) he decided to walk back to the ho+sing *roEect. 6& now he had tho+ght of so(e better =+estions to ask. #a%ing seen firsthand that the con%entional (ethod of data gathering was in this case abs+rd) >enkatesh %owed to scra* his =+estionnaire and e(bed hi(self with the gang. #e tracked down 5. T. and sketched o+t his *ro*osal. 5. T. tho+ght >enkatesh was craC&) literall&1a +ni%ersit& st+dent wanting to coC& +* to a crack gang3 6+t he also ad(ired what >enkatesh was after. As it ha**ened) 5. T. was a college grad+ate hi(self) a b+siness (aEor. After college) he had taken a Eob in the Loo*) working in the (arketing de*art(ent of a co(*an& that sold office e=+i*(ent. 6+t he felt so o+t of *lace there1like a white (an working at Afro $heen head=+arters) he liked to sa&1that he =+it. $till) he ne%er forgot what he learned. #e knew the i(*ortance of collecting data and finding new (arkets< he was alwa&s on the looko+t for better (anage(ent strategies. It was no coincidence) in other words) that 5. T. was the leader of this crack gang. #e was bred to be a boss. After so(e wrangling) 5. T. *ro(ised >enkatesh +nfettered access to the gang's o*erations as long as 5. T. retained %eto *ower o%er an& infor(ation that) if *+blished) (ight *ro%e har(f+l. ,hen the &ellow2gra& b+ildings on the lakefront were de(olished) shortl& after >enkatesh's first %isit) the gang relocated to another ho+sing *roEect e%en dee*er in !hicago's so+th side. Hor the ne/t si/ &ears) >enkatesh *racticall& li%ed there. nder 5. T.'s *rotection he

watched the gang (e(bers +* close) at work and at ho(e. #e asked endless =+estions. $o(eti(es the gangsters were anno&ed b& his c+riosit&< (ore often the& took ad%antage of his willingness to listen. .It's a war o+t here) (an)0 one dealer told hi(. .I (ean) e%er& da& *eo*le str+ggling to s+r%i%e) so &o+ know) we E+st do what we can. ,e ain't got no choice) and if that (eans getting killed) well shit) it's what niggers do aro+nd here to feed their fa(il&.0 >enkatesh wo+ld (o%e fro( one fa(il& to the ne/t) washing their dinner dishes and slee*ing on the floor. #e bo+ght to&s for their children< he once watched a wo(an +se her bab&'s bib to so* +* the blood of a teenaged dr+g dealer who was shot to death in front of >enkatesh. ,illia( 5+li+s ,ilson) back at the reg+lar night(ares on >enkatesh's behalf. O%er the &ears the gang end+red blood& t+rf wars and) e%ent+all&) a federal indict(ent. A (e(ber na(ed 6oot&) who was one rank beneath 5. T.) ca(e to >enkatesh with a stor&. 6oot& was being bla(ed b& the rest of the gang for bringing abo+t the indict(ent) he told >enkatesh) and therefore s+s*ected that he wo+ld soon be killed. F#e was right.G 6+t first 6oot& wanted to do a little atoning. Hor all the gang's talk abo+t how crack dealing didn't do an& har(1the& e%en liked to brag that it ke*t black (one& in the black co((+nit&16oot& was feeling g+ilt&. #e wanted to lea%e behind so(ething that (ight so(ehow benefit the ne/t generation. #e handed >enkatesh a stack of well2worn s*iral notebooks1bl+e and black) the gang's colors. The& re*resented a co(*lete record of fo+r &ears' worth of the gang's financial transactions. At 5. T.'s direction) the ledgers had been rigoro+sl& co(*iled" sales) wages) d+es) e%en the death benefits *aid o+t to the fa(ilies of (+rdered (e(bers. . of !.) was ha%ing

At first >enkatesh didn't e%en want the notebooks. ,hat if the Heds fo+nd o+t he had the(1*erha*s he'd be indicted too3 6esides) what was he s+**osed to do with the data3 Des*ite his (ath backgro+nd) he had long ago sto**ed thinking in n+(bers.

*on co(*leting his grad+ate work at the

ni%ersit& of !hicago)

>enkatesh was awarded a three2&ear sta& at #ar%ard's $ociet& of Hellows. Its en%iron(ent of shar* thinking and bonho(ie1the waln+t *aneling) the sherr& cart once owned b& Oli%er ,endell #ol(es1 delighted >enkatesh. #e went so far as to beco(e the societ&'s wine steward. And &et he reg+larl& left !a(bridge) ret+rning again and again to the crack gang in !hicago. This street2le%el research (ade >enkatesh so(ething of an ano(al&. 7ost of the other &o+ng Hellows were d&ed2in2the2tweed intellect+als who liked to *+n in :reek. One of the societ&'s ai(s was to bring together scholars fro( %ario+s fields who (ight not otherwise ha%e occasion to (eet. >enkatesh soon enco+ntered another ano(alo+s &o+ng Hellow) one who also failed the societ& stereot&*e. This one ha**ened to be an econo(ist who) instead of thinking grand (acro tho+ghts) fa%ored his own list of offbeat (icro c+riosities. At the %er& to* of his list was cri(e. And so) within ten (in+tes of their (eeting) $+dhir >enkatesh told $te%en Le%itt abo+t the s*iral notebooks fro( !hicago and the& decided to collaborate on a *a*er. It wo+ld be the first ti(e that s+ch *riceless financial data had fallen into an econo(ist's hands) affording an anal&sis of a heretofore +ncharted cri(inal enter*rise.

$o how did the gang work3 An awf+l lot like (ost A(erican b+sinesses) act+all&) tho+gh *erha*s none (ore so than 7cDonald's. In fact) if &o+ were to hold a 7cDonald's organiCational chart and a 6lack Disci*les org chart side b& side) &o+ co+ld hardl& tell the difference. The gang that >enkatesh had fallen in with was one of abo+t a h+ndred branches1franchises) reall&1of a larger 6lack Disci*les organiCation. 5. T.) the college2ed+cated leader of his franchise) re*orted to a central leadershi* of abo+t twent& (en that was called) witho+t iron&) the board of directors. FAt the sa(e ti(e that white s+b+rbanites were st+dio+sl& (i(icking black ra**ers' ghetto c+lt+re) black ghetto cri(inals were st+dio+sl& (i(icking the s+b+rbanites' dads' cor*2 think.G 5. T. *aid the board of directors nearl& 8B *ercent of his re%en+es for the right to sell crack in a designated twel%e2s=+are2block area. The rest of the (one& was his to distrib+te as he saw fit. Three officers re*orted directl& to 5. T." an enforcer Fwho ens+red the gang (e(bers' safet&G) a treas+rer Fwho watched o%er the gang's li=+id assetsG) and a r+nner Fwho trans*orted large =+antities of dr+gs and (one& to and fro( the s+**lierG. 6eneath the officers were the street2le%el sales(en known as foot soldiers. The goal of a foot soldier was to so(eda& beco(e an officer. 5. T. (ight ha%e had an&where fro( twent&2fi%e to se%ent&2fi%e foot soldiers on his *a&roll at an& gi%en ti(e) de*ending on the ti(e of &ear Fa+t+(n was the best crack2 selling season< s+((er and !hrist(asti(e were slowG and the siCe of the gang's territor& Fwhich do+bled at one *oint when the 6lack Disci*les engineered a hostile takeo%er of a ri%al gang's t+rfG. At the %er& botto( of 5. T.'s organiCation were as (an& as two h+ndred (e(bers known as the rank and file. The& were not e(*lo&ees at all. The& did) howe%er) *a& d+es to the gang1so(e for *rotection fro(

ri%al gangs) others for the chance to e%ent+all& earn a Eob as a foot soldier. The fo+r &ears recorded in the gang's notebooks coincided with the *eak &ears of the crack boo() and b+siness was e/cellent. 5. T.'s franchise =+adr+*led its re%en+es d+ring this *eriod. In the first &ear) it took in an a%erage of I4M)DBB each (onth< b& the final &ear) it was collecting IAM)?BB a (onth. #ere's a look at the (onthl& re%en+es in the third &ear"

Dr+g sales D+es E/tortionar& ta/es Total (onthl& re%en+es

I8?)MBB D)4BB 8)4BB I;8)BBB

.Dr+g sales0 re*resents onl& the (one& fro( dealing crack cocaine. The gang did allow so(e rank2and2file (e(bers to sell heroin on its t+rf b+t acce*ted a fi/ed licensing fee in lie+ of a share of *rofits. FThis was off2the2books (one& and went straight into 5. T.'s *ocket< he *robabl& ski((ed fro( other so+rces as well.G The ID)4BB in d+es ca(e fro( rank2and2file (e(bers onl&) since f+ll gang (e(bers didn't *a& d+es. The e/tortionar& ta/es were *aid b& other b+sinesses that o*erated on the gang's t+rf) incl+ding grocer& stores) g&*s& cabs) *i(*s) and *eo*le selling stolen goods or re*airing cars on the street. Now) here's what it cost 5. T.) e/cl+ding wages) to bring in that I;8)BBB *er (onth"

,holesale cost of dr+gs 6oard of directors 7ercenar& fighters ,ea*ons 7iscellaneo+s Total (onthl& nonwage costs

I D)BBB fee D)BBB 4);BB ;BB 8)?BB I4?)BBB

7ercenar& fighters were non(e(bers hired on short2ter( contracts to hel* the gang fight t+rf wars. The cost of wea*ons is s(all here beca+se the 6lack Disci*les had a side deal with local g+nr+nners) hel*ing the( na%igate the neighborhood in e/change for free or stee*l& disco+nted g+ns. The (iscellaneo+s e/*enses incl+de legal fees) *arties) bribes) and gang2s*onsored .co((+nit& e%ents.0 FThe 6lack Disci*les worked hard to be seen as a *illar rather than a sco+rge of the ho+sing2*roEect co((+nit&.G The (iscellaneo+s e/*enses also incl+de the costs associated with a gang (e(ber's (+rder. The gang not onl& *aid for the f+neral b+t often ga%e a sti*end of +* to three &ears' wages to the %icti('s fa(il&. >enkatesh had once asked wh& the gang was so genero+s in this regard. .That's a f+cking st+*id =+estion)0 he was told) . 'ca+se as long as &o+ been with +s) &o+ still don't +nderstand that their fa(ilies is o+r fa(ilies. ,e can't E+st lea%e 'e( o+t. ,e been knowing these folks o+r whole li%es) (an) so we grie%e when the& grie%e. Yo+ got to res*ect the fa(il&.0 There was another reason for the death benefits" the gang feared co((+nit& backlash Fits enter*rise was *lainl& a destr+cti%e oneG and fig+red it co+ld b+& so(e goodwill for a few h+ndred dollars here and there.

The rest of the (one& the gang took in went to its (e(bers) starting with 5. T. #ere is the single line ite( in the gang's b+dget that (ade 5. T. the ha**iest"

Net (onthl& *rofit accr+ing to leader

IM)DBB

At IM)DBB *er (onth) 5. T.'s ann+al salar& was abo+t I4BB)BBB1ta/2 free) of co+rse) and not incl+ding the %ario+s off2the2books (one& he *ocketed. This was a lot (ore than he earned at his short2li%ed office Eob in the Loo*. And 5. T. was E+st one of ro+ghl& 4BB leaders at this le%el within the 6lack Disci*les network. $o there were indeed so(e dr+g dealers who co+ld afford to li%e large) or1in the case of the gang's board of directors1e/tre(el& large. Each of those to* 8B bosses stood to earn abo+t IDBB)BBB a &ear. FA third of the() howe%er) were t&*icall& i(*risoned at an& ti(e) a significant downside of an +* *osition in an illicit ind+str&.G $o the to* 48B (en on the 6lack Disci*les' *&ra(id were *aid %er& well. 6+t the *&ra(id the& sat ato* was gigantic. sing 5. T.'s franchise as a &ardstick1; officers and ro+ghl& DB foot soldiers1there were so(e D);BB other (en working for those 48B bosses. Then there were another 8B)BBB +n*aid rank2and2file (e(bers) (an& of who( wanted nothing (ore than an o**ort+nit& to beco(e a foot soldier. The& were e%en willing to *a& gang d+es to ha%e their chance. And how well did that drea( Eob *a&3 #ere are the (onthl& totals for the wages that 5. T. *aid his gang (e(bers"

!o(bined wages *aid to all three officers !o(bined wages *aid to all foot soldiers Total (onthl& gang wages Fe/cl+ding leaderG

I8)4BB K)?BB I@)DBB

$o 5. T. *aid his e(*lo&ees I@)DBB) a co(bined (onthl& salar& that was onl& I4)BBB (ore than his own official salar&. 5. T.'s ho+rl& wage was IAA. #is three officers) (eanwhile) each took ho(e IKBB a (onth) which works o+t to abo+t IK an ho+r. And the foot soldiers earned E+st I;.;B an ho+r) less than the (ini(+( wage. $o the answer to the original =+estion1if dr+g dealers (ake so (+ch (one&) wh& are the& still li%ing with their (others31is that) e/ce*t for the to* cats) the& don't (ake (+ch (one&. The& had no choice b+t to li%e with their (others. Hor e%er& big earner) there were h+ndreds (ore E+st scra*ing along. The to* 48B (en in the 6lack Disci*les gang re*resented E+st 8.8 *ercent of the f+ll2fledged gang (e(bershi* b+t took ho(e well (ore than half the (one&. In other words) a crack gang works *rett& (+ch like the standard ca*italist enter*rise" &o+ ha%e to be near the to* of the *&ra(id to (ake a big wage. Notwithstanding the leadershi*'s rhetoric abo+t the fa(il& nat+re of the b+siness) the gang's wages are abo+t as skewed as wages in cor*orate A(erica. A foot soldier had *lent& in co((on with a 7cDonald's b+rger fli**er or a ,al27art shelf stocker. In fact) (ost of 5. T.'s foot soldiers also held (ini(+(2wage Eobs in the legiti(ate sector to s+**le(ent their ski(*& illicit earnings. The leader of another crack gang once told >enkatesh that he co+ld easil& afford to *a& his foot soldiers (ore) b+t it wo+ldn't be *r+dent. .Yo+ got all these niggers below &o+ who want &o+r Eob) &o+ dig30 he said. .$o) &o+ know) &o+ tr& to take care of the() b+t &o+ know) &o+ also ha%e to

show the( &o+ the boss. Yo+ alwa&s ha%e to get &o+rs first) or else &o+ reall& ain't no leader. If &o+ start taking losses) the& see &o+ as weak and shit.0 Along with the bad *a&) the foot soldiers faced terrible Eob conditions. Hor starters) the& had to stand on a street corner all da& and do b+siness with crackheads. FThe gang (e(bers were strongl& ad%ised against +sing the *rod+ct the(sel%es) ad%ice that was enforced b& beatings if necessar&.G Hoot soldiers also risked arrest and) (ore worri2 so(e) %iolence. sing the gang's financial doc+(ents and the rest of >enkatesh's research) it is *ossible to constr+ct an ad%erse2e%ents inde/ of 5. T.'s gang d+ring the fo+r &ears in =+estion. The res+lts are astonishingl& bleak. If &o+ were a (e(ber of 5. T.'s gang for all fo+r &ears) here is the t&*ical fate &o+ wo+ld ha%e faced d+ring that *eriod"

N+(ber of ti(es arrested N+(ber %iolationsG !hance of being killed of nonfatal wo+nds or

D.@ inE+ries 8.?

Fnot incl+ding inE+ries (eted o+t b& the gang itself for r+les

4 ?

in

A 42in2? chance of being killedP !o(*are these odds to being a ti(ber c+tter) which the 6+rea+ of Labor $tatistics calls the (ost dangero+s Eob in the nited $tates. O%er fo+r &ears' ti(e) a ti(ber c+tter wo+ld stand onl& a 42in28BB chance of being killed. Or co(*are the crack dealer's odds to those of a death row in(ate in Te/as) which e/ec+tes (ore *risoners than an& other state. In 8BB;) Te/as *+t to death

twent&2fo+r in(ates1or E+st D *ercent of the nearl& DBB in(ates on its death row d+ring that ti(e. ,hich (eans that &o+ stand a greater chance of d&ing while dealing crack in a !hicago ho+sing *roEect than &o+ do while sitting on death row in Te/as. $o if crack dealing is the (ost dangero+s Eob in A(erica) and if the salar& is onl& I;.;B an ho+r) wh& on earth wo+ld an&one take s+ch a Eob3 ,ell) for the sa(e reason that a *rett& ,isconsin far( girl (o%es to #oll&wood. Hor the sa(e reason that a high2school =+arterback wakes +* at D a.(. to lift weights. The& all want to s+cceed in an e/tre(el& co(*etiti%e field in which) if &o+ reach the to*) &o+ are *aid a fort+ne Fto sa& nothing of the attendant glor& and *owerG. To the kids growing +* in a ho+sing *roEect on !hicago's so+th side) crack dealing was a gla(o+r *rofession. Hor (an& of the() the Eob of gang boss1highl& %isible and highl& l+crati%e1was easil& the best Eob the& tho+ght the& had access to. #ad the& grown +* +nder different circ+(stances) the& (ight ha%e tho+ght abo+t beco(ing econo(ists or writers. 6+t in the neighborhood where 5. T.'s gang o*erated) the *ath to a decent legiti(ate Eob was *racticall& in%isible. Hift&2si/ *ercent of the neighborhood's children li%ed below the *o%ert& line Fco(*ared to a national a%erage of 4M *ercentG. $e%ent&2eight *ercent ca(e fro( single2*arent ho(es. Hewer than D *ercent of the neighborhood's ad+lts had a college degree< barel& one in three ad+lt (en worked at all. The neighborhood's (edian inco(e was abo+t I4D)BBB a &ear) well less than half the .$. a%erage. D+ring the &ears that >enkatesh li%ed with 5. T.'s gang) foot soldiers often asked his hel* in landing what the& called .a good Eob0" working as a Eanitor at the ni%ersit& of !hicago.

The *roble( with crack dealing is the sa(e as in e%er& other gla(o+r *rofession" a lot of *eo*le are co(*eting for a %er& few *riCes. Earning big (one& in the crack gang wasn't (+ch (ore likel& than the ,isconsin far( girl beco(ing a (o%ie star or the high2school =+arterback *la&ing in the NHL. 6+t cri(inals) like e%er&one else) res*ond to incenti%es. $o if the *riCe is big eno+gh) the& will for( a line down the block E+st ho*ing for a chance. On the so+th side of !hicago) *eo*le wanting to sell crack %astl& o+tn+(bered the a%ailable street corners. These b+dding dr+g lords b+(*ed +* against an i((+table law of labor" when there are a lot of *eo*le willing and able to do a Eob) that Eob generall& doesn't *a& well. This is one of fo+r (eaningf+l factors that deter(ine a wage. The others are the s*ecialiCed skills a Eob re=+ires) the +n*leasantness of a Eob) and the de(and for ser%ices that the Eob f+lfills. The delicate balance between these factors hel*s e/*lain wh&) for instance) the t&*ical *rostit+te earns (ore than the t&*ical architect. It (a& not see( as tho+gh she sho+ld. The architect wo+ld a**ear to be (ore skilled Fas the word is +s+all& definedG and better ed+cated Fagain) as +s+all& definedG. 6+t little girls don't grow +* drea(ing of beco(ing *rostit+tes) so the s+**l& of *otential *rostit+tes is relati%el& s(all. Their skills) while not necessaril& .s*ecialiCed)0 are *racticed in a %er& s*ecialiCed conte/t. The Eob is +n*leasant and forbidding in at least two significant wa&s" the likelihood of %iolence and the lost o**ort+nit& of ha%ing a stable fa(il& life. As for de(and3 Let's E+st sa& that an architect is (ore likel& to hire a *rostit+te than %ice %ersa. In the gla(o+r *rofessions1(o%ies) s*orts) (+sic) fashion1there is a different d&na(ic at *la&. E%en in second2tier gla(o+r ind+stries like *+blishing) ad%ertising) and (edia) swar(s of bright &o+ng *eo*le

throw the(sel%es at gr+nt Eobs that *a& *oorl& and de(and +nstinting de%otion. An editorial assistant earning I88)BBB at a 7anhattan *+blishing ho+se) an +n*aid high2school =+arterback) and a teenage crack dealer earning I;.;B an ho+r are all *la&ing the sa(e ga(e) a ga(e that is best %iewed as a to+rna(ent. The r+les of a to+rna(ent are straightforward. Yo+ (+st start at the botto( to ha%e a shot at the to*. F5+st as a 7aEor Leag+e shortsto* *robabl& *la&ed Little Leag+e and E+st as a :rand Dragon of the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan *robabl& started o+t as a lowl& s*ear2carrier) a dr+g lord t&*icall& began b& selling dr+gs on a street corner.G Yo+ (+st be willing to work long and hard at s+bstandard wages. In order to ad%ance in the to+rna(ent) &o+ (+st *ro%e &o+rself not (erel& abo%e a%erage b+t s*ectac+lar. FThe wa& to disting+ish &o+rself differs fro( *rofession to *rofession) of co+rse< while 5. T. certainl& (onitored his foot soldiers' sales *erfor(ance) it was their force of *ersonalit& that reall& co+nted1(ore than it wo+ld for) sa&) a shortsto*.G And finall&) once &o+ co(e to the sad realiCation that &o+ will ne%er (ake it to the to*) &o+ will =+it the to+rna(ent. F$o(e *eo*le hang on longer than others1witness the gra&ing .actors0 who wait tables in New York1b+t *eo*le generall& get the (essage =+ite earl&.G 7ost of 5. T.'s foot soldiers were +nwilling to sta& foot soldiers for long after the& realiCed the& weren't ad%ancing. Es*eciall& once the shooting started. After se%eral relati%el& *eacef+l &ears) 5. T.'s gang got in%ol%ed in a t+rf war with a neighboring gang. Dri%e2b& shootings beca(e a dail& e%ent. Hor a foot soldier1the gang's (an on the street 1this de%elo*(ent was *artic+larl& dangero+s. The nat+re of the b+siness de(anded that c+sto(ers be able to find hi( easil& and =+ickl&< if he hid fro( the other gang) he co+ldn't sell his crack.

ntil the gang war) 5. T.'s foot soldiers had been willing to balance the risk&) low2*a&ing Eob with the reward of ad%ance(ent. 6+t as one foot soldier told >enkatesh) he now wanted to be co(*ensated for the added risk" .,o+ld &o+ stand aro+nd here when all this shit is going on3 No) right3 $o if I gonna be asked to *+t (& life on the line) then front (e the cash) (an. Pa& (e (ore 'ca+se it ain't worth (& ti(e to be here when the&'re warring.0 5. T. hadn't wanted this war. Hor one thing) he was forced to *a& his foot soldiers higher wages beca+se of the added risk. Har worse) gang warfare was bad for b+siness. If 6+rger 9ing and 7cDonald's la+nch a *rice war to gain (arket share) the& *artl& (ake +* in %ol+(e what the& lose in *rice. FNor is an&one getting shot.G 6+t with a gang war) sales *l+((et beca+se c+sto(ers are so scared of the %iolence that the& won't co(e o+t in the o*en to b+& their crack. In e%er& wa&) war was e/*ensi%e for 5. T. $o wh& did he start the war3 As a (atter of fact) he didn't. It was his foot soldiers who started it. It t+rns o+t that a crack boss didn't ha%e as (+ch control o%er his s+bordinates as he wo+ld ha%e liked. That's beca+se the& had different incenti%es. Hor 5. T.) %iolence was a distraction fro( the b+siness at hand< he wo+ld ha%e *referred that his (e(bers ne%er fired a single g+nshot. Hor a foot soldier) howe%er) %iolence ser%ed a *+r*ose. One of the few wa&s that a foot soldier co+ld disting+ish hi(self1and ad%ance in the to+rna(ent1was b& *ro%ing his (ettle for %iolence. A killer was res*ected) feared) talked abo+t. A foot soldier's incenti%e was to (ake a na(e for hi(self< 5. T.'s incenti%e was) in effect) to kee* the foot soldiers fro( doing so. .,e tr& to tell these shorties that the& belong to a serio+s organiCation)0 he once told >enkatesh. .It ain't all abo+t killing. The& see these (o%ies and shit) the& think it's all abo+t r+nning

aro+nd tearing shit +*. 6+t it's not. Yo+'%e got to learn to be *art of an organiCation< &o+ can't be fighting all the ti(e. It's bad for b+siness.0 In the end) 5. T. *re%ailed. #e o%ersaw the gang's e/*ansion and +shered in a new era of *ros*erit& and relati%e *eace. 5. T. was a winner. #e was *aid well beca+se so few *eo*le co+ld do what he did. #e was a tall) good2looking) s(art) to+gh (an who knew how to (oti%ate *eo*le. #e was shrewd too) ne%er te(*ting arrest b& carr&ing g+ns or cash. ,hile the rest of his gang li%ed in *o%ert& with their (others) 5. T. had se%eral ho(es) se%eral wo(en) se%eral cars. #e also had his b+siness ed+cation) of co+rse. #e constantl& worked to e/tend this ad%antage. That was wh& he ordered the cor*orate2st&le bookkee*ing that e%ent+all& fo+nd its wa& into $+dhir >enkatesh's hands. No other franchise leader had e%er done s+ch a thing. 5. T. once showed his ledgers to the board of directors to *ro%e) as if *roof were needed) the e/tent of his b+siness ac+(en. And it worked. After si/ &ears r+nning his local gang) 5. T. was *ro(oted to the board of directors. #e was now thirt&2fo+r &ears old. #e had won the to+rna(ent. 6+t this to+rna(ent had a catch that *+blishing and *ro s*orts and e%en #oll&wood don't ha%e. $elling dr+gs) after all) is illegal. Not long after he (ade the board of directors) the 6lack Disci*les were essentiall& sh+t down b& a federal indict(ent 1the sa(e indict(ent that led the gangster na(ed 6oot& to t+rn o%er his notebooks to >enkatesh1and 5. T. was sent to *rison.

Now for another +nlikel& =+estion" what did crack cocaine ha%e in co((on with n&lon stockings3

In 4@;@) when D+Pont introd+ced n&lons) co+ntless A(erican wo(en felt as if a (iracle had been *erfor(ed in their honor. ntil then) stockings were (ade of silk) and silk was delicate) e/*ensi%e) and in e%er shorter s+**l&. 6& 4@?4) so(e si/t&2fo+r (illion *airs of n&lon stockings had been sold1(ore stockings than there were ad+lt wo(en in the nited $tates. The& were easil& affordable) i((ensel& a**ealing) *racticall& addicti%e. D+Pont had *+lled off the feat that e%er& (arketer drea(s of" it bro+ght class to the (asses. In this regard) the in%ention of n&lon stockings was (arkedl& si(ilar to the in%ention of crack cocaine. In the 4@KBs) if &o+ were the sort of *erson who did dr+gs) there was no classier dr+g than cocaine. 6elo%ed b& rock stars and (o%ie stars) ball*la&ers and e%en the occasional *olitician) cocaine was a dr+g of *ower and *anache. It was clean) it was white) it was *rett&. #eroin was droo*& and *ot was fogg& b+t cocaine *ro%ided a bea+tif+l high. Alas) it was also %er& e/*ensi%e. Nor did the high last long. This led cocaine +sers to tr& Eacking +* the dr+g's *otenc&. The& did this *ri(aril& b& freebasing1adding a((onia and eth&l ether to cocaine h&drochloride) or *owdered cocaine) and b+rning it to free +* the .base0 cocaine. 6+t this co+ld be dangero+s. As Richard Pr&or fa(o+sl& *ro%ed1he nearl& killed hi(self while freebasing1che(istr& is best left to che(ists. 7eanwhile) cocaine dealers and aficionados across the co+ntr&) and *erha*s also in the !aribbean and $o+th A(erica) were working on a safer %ersion of distilled cocaine. The& fo+nd that (i/ing *owdered cocaine in a sa+ce*an with baking soda and water) and then cooking off the li=+id) *rod+ced tin& rocks of s(okeable cocaine. It ca(e to be called crack for the crackling so+nd the baking soda (ade when it was

b+rned. 7ore affectionate nickna(es wo+ld soon follow" Rock) 9r&*tonite) 9ibbles 'n 6its) $crabble) and Lo%e. 6& the earl& 4@MBs) the class dr+g was read& for the (asses. Now onl& two things were needed to t+rn crack into a *heno(enon" an ab+ndant s+**l& of raw cocaine and a wa& to get the new *rod+ct to a (ass (arket. The cocaine was eas& to co(e b&) for the in%ention of crack coincided with a !olo(bian cocaine gl+t. D+ring the late 4@KBs) the wholesale *rice of cocaine in the nited $tates fell dra(aticall&) e%en as its *+rit& was rising. One (an) a Nicarag+an O(igrO na(ed Oscar Danilo 6landon) was s+s*ected of i(*orting far (ore !olo(bian cocaine than an&one else. 6landon did so (+ch b+siness with the b+dding crack dealers of $o+th !entral Los Angeles that he ca(e to be known as the 5ohnn& A**leseed of !rack. 6landon wo+ld later clai( that he was selling the cocaine to raise (one& for the !IA2s*onsored !ontras back ho(e in Nicarag+a. #e liked to sa& that the !IA was in t+rn watching his back in the nited $tates) allowing hi( to sell cocaine with i(*+nit&. This clai( wo+ld s*ark a belief that still seethes to this da&) es*eciall& a(ong +rban blacks) that the !IA itself was the chief s*onsor of the A(erican crack trade. >erif&ing that clai( is be&ond the *+r%iew of this book. ,hat is de(onstrabl& tr+e is that Oscar Danilo 6landon hel*ed establish a link 1between !olo(bian cocaine cartels and inner2cit& crack (erchants1 that wo+ld alter A(erican histor&. 6& *+tting (assi%e a(o+nts of cocaine into the hands of street gangs) 6landon and others like hi( ga%e rise to a de%astating crack boo(. And gangs like the 6lack :angster Disci*le Nation were gi%en new reason to e/ist. As long as there ha%e been cities) there ha%e been gangs of one sort or another. In the nited $tates) gangs ha%e traditionall& been a sort of halfwa& ho+se for recent i((igrants. In the 4@8Bs) !hicago alone had

(ore than 4);BB street gangs) catering to e%er& ethnic) *olitical) and cri(inal leaning i(aginable. As a r+le) gangs wo+ld *ro%e (+ch better at (aking (a&he( than (one&. $o(e fancied the(sel%es co((ercial enter*rises) and a few1the 7afia) (ost notabl&1act+all& did (ake (one& Fat least for the higher2+*sG. 6+t (ost gangsters were) as the clichO ass+res +s) two2bit gangsters. 6lack street gangs in *artic+lar flo+rished in !hicago) with (e(bershi* in the tens of tho+sands b& the 4@KBs. The& constit+ted the sort of cri(inals) *ett& and otherwise) who s+cked the life o+t of +rban areas. Part of the *roble( was that these cri(inals ne%er see(ed to get locked +*. The 4@ABs and 4@KBs were) in retros*ect) a great ti(e to be a street cri(inal in (ost A(erican cities. The likelihood of *+nish(ent was so low1this was the he&da& of a liberal E+stice s&ste( and the cri(inals' rights (o%e(ent1that it si(*l& didn't cost %er& (+ch to co((it a cri(e. 6& the 4@MBs) howe%er) the co+rts had beg+n to radicall& re%erse that trend. !ri(inals' rights were c+rtailed and stricter sentencing g+idelines *+t in *lace. 7ore and (ore of !hicago's black gangsters were getting sent to federal *risons. 6& ha**& coincidence) so(e of their fellow in(ates were 7e/ican gang (e(bers with close ties to !olo(bian dr+g dealers. In the *ast) the black gangsters had bo+ght their dr+gs fro( a (iddle(an) the 7afia1which) as it ha**ened) was then being *+((eled b& the federal go%ern(ent's new anti2 racketeering laws. 6+t b& the ti(e crack ca(e to !hicago) the black gangsters had (ade the connections to b+& their cocaine directl& fro( !olo(bian dealers. !ocaine had ne%er been a big seller in the ghetto" it was too e/*ensi%e. 6+t that was before the in%ention of crack. This new *rod+ct was ideal for a low2inco(e) street2le%el c+sto(er. 6eca+se it

re=+ired s+ch a tin& a(o+nt of *+re cocaine) one hit of crack cost onl& a few dollars. Its *owerf+l high reached the brain in E+st a few seconds 1and then faded fast) sending the +ser back for (ore. Hro( the o+tset) crack was bo+nd to be a h+ge s+ccess. And who better to sell it than the tho+sands of E+nior (e(bers of all those street gangs like the 6lack :angster Disci*le Nation3 The gangs alread& owned the territor&1real estate was) in essence) their core b+siness1and the& were s+itabl& (enacing to kee* c+sto(ers fro( e%en thinking abo+t ri**ing the( off. $+ddenl& the +rban street gang e%ol%ed fro( a cl+b for wa&ward teenagers into a tr+e co((ercial enter*rise. The gang also *resented an o**ort+nit& for longti(e e(*lo&(ent. 6efore crack) it was E+st abo+t i(*ossible to earn a li%ing in a street gang. ,hen it was ti(e for a gangster to start s+**orting a fa(il&) he wo+ld ha%e to =+it. There was no s+ch thing as a thirt&2&ear2old gangster" he was either working a legiti(ate Eob) dead) or in *rison. 6+t with crack) there was real (one& to be (ade. Instead of (o%ing on and (aking wa& for the &o+nger gangsters to ascend) the %eterans sta&ed *+t. This was ha**ening E+st as the old2fashioned sort of lifeti(e Eobs1factor& Eobs es*eciall&1were disa**earing. In the *ast) a se(i2skilled black (an in !hicago co+ld earn a decent wage working in a factor&. ,ith that o*tion narrowing) crack dealing looked e%en better. #ow hard co+ld it be3 The st+ff was so addicti%e that a fool co+ld sell it. ,ho cared if the crack ga(e was a to+rna(ent that onl& a few of the( co+ld *ossibl& win3 ,ho cared if it was so dangero+s1standing o+t there on a corner) selling it as fast and anon&(o+sl& as 7cDonald's sells ha(b+rgers) not knowing an& of &o+r c+sto(ers) wondering who (ight be co(ing to arrest or rob or kill &o+3 ,ho cared if &o+r *rod+ct

got twel%e2&ear2olds and grand(others and *reachers so addicted that the& sto**ed thinking abo+t an&thing e/ce*t their ne/t hit3 ,ho cared if crack killed the neighborhood3 Hor black A(ericans) the fo+r decades between ,orld ,ar II and the crack boo( had been (arked b& stead& and often dra(atic i(*ro%e(ent. Partic+larl& since the ci%il rights legislation of the (id2 4@ABs) the telltale signs of societal *rogress had finall& taken root a(ong black A(ericans. The black2white inco(e ga* was shrinking. $o was the ga* between black children's test scores and those of white children. Perha*s the (ost heartening gain had been in infant (ortalit&. As late as 4@A?) a black infant was twice as likel& to die as a white infant) often of a ca+se as basic as diarrhea or *ne+(onia. ,ith segregated hos*itals) (an& black *atients recei%ed what a(o+nted to Third ,orld care. 6+t that changed when the federal go%ern(ent ordered the hos*itals to be desegregated" within E+st se%en &ears) the black infant (ortalit& rate had been c+t in half. 6& the 4@MBs) %irt+all& e%er& facet of life was i(*ro%ing for black A(ericans) and the *rogress showed no sign of sto**ing. Then ca(e crack. ,hile crack +se was hardl& a black2onl& *heno(enon) it hit black neighborhoods (+ch harder than (ost. The e%idence can be seen b& (eas+ring the sa(e indicators of societal *rogress cited abo%e. After decades of decline) black infant (ortalit& began to soar in the 4@MBs) as did the rate of low2birthweight babies and *arent abandon(ent. The ga* between black and white schoolchildren widened. The n+(ber of blacks sent to *rison tri*led. !rack was so dra(aticall& destr+cti%e that if its effect is a%eraged for all black A(ericans) not E+st crack +sers and their fa(ilies) &o+ will see that the gro+*'s *ostwar *rogress was not onl& sto**ed cold b+t was often knocked as (+ch as ten &ears

backward. 6lack A(ericans were h+rt (ore b& crack cocaine than b& an& other single ca+se since 5i( !row. And then there was the cri(e. ,ithin a fi%e2&ear *eriod) the ho(icide rate a(ong &o+ng +rban blacks =+adr+*led. $+ddenl& it was E+st as dangero+s to li%e in *arts of !hicago or $t. Lo+is or Los Angeles as it was to li%e in 6ogotV. The %iolence associated with the crack boo( was %ario+s and relentless. It coincided with an e%en broader A(erican cri(e wa%e that had been b+ilding for two decades. Altho+gh the rise of this cri(e wa%e long *redated crack) the trend was so e/acerbated b& crack that cri(inologists got downright a*ocal&*tic in their *redictions. 5a(es Alan Ho/) *erha*s the (ost widel& =+oted cri(e e/*ert in the *o*+lar *ress) warned of a co(ing .bloodbath0 of &o+th %iolence. 6+t Ho/ and the other *+r%e&ors of con%entional wisdo( were wrong. The bloodbath did not (aterialiCe. The cri(e rate in fact began to fall 1so +ne/*ectedl& and dra(aticall& and thoro+ghl& that now) fro( the distance of se%eral &ears) it is al(ost hard to recall the cr+shing gri* of that cri(e wa%e. ,h& did it fall3 Hor a few reasons) b+t one of the( (ore s+r*rising than the rest. Oscar Danilo 6landon) the so2called 5ohnn& A**leseed of !rack) (a& ha%e been the instigator of one ri**le effect) in which b& his actions a single *erson inad%ertentl& ca+ses an ocean of des*air. 6+t +nbeknownst to E+st abo+t e%er&bod&) another re(arkabl& *owerf+l ri**le effect1this one (o%ing in the o**osite direction1had E+st co(e into *la&.

In Le%itt's abortion *a*er) *+blished in 8BB4) he and his co2a+thor 5ohn Donoh+e warned that their findings .sho+ld not be (isinter*reted as either an endorse(ent of abortion or a call for inter%ention b& the state in the fertilit& decisions of wo(en.0 The& e%en s+ggested that cri(e (ight E+st as easil& be c+rbed b& .*ro%iding better en%iron(ents for those children at greatest risk for f+t+re cri(e.0 $till) the %er& to*ic (anaged to offend E+st abo+t e%er&one. !onser%ati%es were enraged that abortion co+ld be constr+ed as a cri(e2fighting tool. Liberals were aghast that *oor and black wo(en were singled o+t. Econo(ists gr+(bled that Le%itt's (ethodolog& was not so+nd. As the (edia gorged on the abortion2cri(e stor&) Le%itt ca(e e%il. In realit&) he see(s to be %er& (+ch none of those. #e has little taste for *olitics and e%en less for (oraliCing. #e is genial) low2ke& and +nfla**able) confident b+t not cock&. #e s*eaks with a considerable lis*. #is a**earance is #igh Nerd" a *laid b+tton2down shirt) nondescri*t khakis and a braided belt) brown sensible shoes. #is *ocket calendar is branded with the National 6+rea+ of Econo(ic Research logo. .I wish he wo+ld get (ore than three hairc+ts a &ear)0 sa&s his wife) 5eannette) .and that he wasn't still wearing the sa(e glasses he got fifteen &ears ago) which weren't e%en in fashion then.0 #e was a good golfer in high school b+t has so *h&sicall& atro*hied that he calls hi(self .the weakest h+(an being ali%e0 and asks 5eannette to o*en Ears aro+nd the ho+se. There is nothing in his a**earance or (anner) in other words) that s+ggests a fla(ethrower. +nder direct assa+lt. #e was called an ideolog+e Fb& conser%ati%es and liberals alikeG) a e+genicist) a racist) and downright

1T#E N E, Y OR9 T I7E$ 7 A:AJINE) A : $T ;) 8BB;

.here H$ve All the Crimin$ls 3one/

In 4@AA) one &ear after Nicolae !ea+sWesc+ beca(e the !o((+nist dictator of Ro(ania) he (ade abortion illegal. .The fet+s is the *ro*ert& of the entire societ&)0 he *roclai(ed. .An&one who a%oids ha%ing children is a deserter who abandons the laws of national contin+it&.0 $+ch grandiose declarations were co((on*lace d+ring !ea+3esc+'s reign) for his (aster *lan1to create a nation worth& of the New $ocialist 7an1was an e/ercise in grandiosit&. #e b+ilt *alaces for hi(self while alternatel& br+taliCing and neglecting his citiCens. Abandoning agric+lt+re in fa%or of (an+fact+ring) he forced (an& of the nation's r+ral dwellers into +nheated a*art(ent b+ildings. #e ga%e go%ern(ent *ositions to fort& fa(il& (e(bers incl+ding his wife) Elena) who re=+ired fort& ho(es and a co((ens+rate s+**l& of f+r and Eewels. 7ada(e !ea+3esc+) known officiall& as the 6est 7other Ro(ania !o+ld #a%e) was not *artic+larl& (aternal. .The wor(s ne%er get satisfied) regardless of how (+ch food &o+ gi%e the()0 she said when Ro(anians co(*lained abo+t the food shortages bro+ght on b& her h+sband's (is(anage(ent. $he had her own children b+gged to ens+re their lo&alt&. !ea+3esc+'s ban on abortion was designed to achie%e one of his (aEor ai(s" to ra*idl& strengthen Ro(ania b& boosting its *o*+lation. ntil 4@AA) Ro(ania had had one of the (ost liberal abortion *olicies in the world. Abortion was in fact the (ain for( of birth control) with fo+r abortions for e%er& li%e birth. Now) %irt+all& o%ernight) abortion was

forbidden. The onl& e/e(*tions were (others who alread& had fo+r children or wo(en with significant standing in the !o((+nist Part&. At the sa(e ti(e) all contrace*tion and se/ ed+cation were banned. :o%ern(ent agents sardonicall& known as the 7enstr+al Police reg+larl& ro+nded +* wo(en in their work2*laces to ad(inister *regnanc& tests. If a wo(an re*eatedl& failed to concei%e) she was forced to *a& a stee* .celibac& ta/.0 !ea+sWesc+'s incenti%es *rod+ced the desired effect. ,ithin one &ear of the abortion ban) the Ro(anian birth rate had do+bled. These babies were born into a co+ntr& where) +nless &o+ belonged to the !ea+3esc+ clan or the !o((+nist elite) life was (iserable. 6+t these children wo+ld t+rn o+t to ha%e *artic+larl& (iserable li%es. !o(*ared to Ro(anian children born E+st a &ear earlier) the cohort of children born after the abortion ban wo+ld do worse in e%er& (eas+rable wa&" the& wo+ld test lower in school) the& wo+ld ha%e less s+ccess in the labor (arket) and the& wo+ld also *ro%e (+ch (ore likel& to beco(e cri(inals. The abortion ban sta&ed in effect +ntil !ea+3esc+ finall& lost his gri* on Ro(ania. On Dece(ber 4A) 4@M@) tho+sands of *eo*le took to the streets of Ti(isoara to *rotest his corrosi%e regi(e. 7an& of the *rotestors were teenagers and college st+dents. The *olice killed doCens of the(. One of the o**osition leaders) a fort&2one2&ear2old *rofessor) later said it was his thirteen2&ear2old da+ghter who insisted he attend the *rotest) des*ite his fear. .,hat is (ost interesting is that we learned not to be afraid fro( o+r children)0 he said. .7ost were aged thirteen to twent&.0 A few da&s after the (assacre in Ti(isoara) !ea+sWesc+ ga%e a s*eech in 6+charest before one h+ndred tho+sand *eo*le. Again the &o+ng *eo*le were o+t in force. The& sho+ted down !ea+3esc+ with cries of .Ti(isoaraP0 and .Down with the (+rderersP0

#is ti(e had co(e. #e and Elena tried to esca*e the co+ntr& with I4 billion) b+t the& were ca*t+red) gi%en a cr+de trial) and) on !hrist(as Da&) e/ec+ted b& firing s=+ad. Of all the !o((+nist leaders de*osed in the &ears bracketing the colla*se of the $o%iet nion) onl& Nicolae !ea+3esc+ (et a %iolent death. It sho+ld not be o%erlooked that his de(ise was *reci*itated in large (eas+re b& the &o+th of Ro(ania1a great n+(ber of who() were it not for his abortion ban) wo+ld ne%er ha%e been born at all. The stor& of abortion in Ro(ania (ight see( an odd wa& to begin telling the stor& of A(erican cri(e in the 4@@Bs. 6+t it's not. In one i(*ortant wa&) the Ro(anian abortion stor& is a re%erse i(age of the A(erican cri(e stor&. The *oint of o%erla* was on that !hrist(as Da& of 4@M@) when Nicolae !ea+3esc+ learned the hard wa&1with a b+llet to the head1that his abortion ban had (+ch dee*er i(*lications than he knew. On that da&) cri(e was E+st abo+t at its *eak in the nited $tates. In

the *re%io+s fifteen &ears) %iolent cri(e had risen MB *ercent. It was cri(e that led the nightl& news and the national con%ersation. ,hen the cri(e rate began falling in the earl& 4@@Bs) it did so with s+ch s*eed and s+ddenness that it s+r*rised e%er&one. It took so(e e/*erts (an& &ears to e%en recogniCe that cri(e was falling) so confident had the& been of its contin+ing rise. Long after cri(e had *eaked) in fact) so(e of the( contin+ed to *redict e%er darker scenarios. 6+t the e%idence was irref+table" the long and br+tal s*ike in cri(e was (o%ing in the o**osite direction) and it wo+ldn't sto* +ntil the cri(e rate had fallen back to the le%els of fort& &ears earlier.

Now the e/*erts h+stled to e/*lain their fa+lt& forecasting. The cri(inologist 5a(es Alan Ho/ e/*lained that his warning of a .blood2 bath0 was in fact an intentional o%erstate(ent. .I ne%er said there wo+ld be blood flowing in the streets)0 he said) .b+t I +sed strong ter(s like Rbloodbath' to get *eo*le's attention. And it did. I don't a*ologiCe for +sing alar(ist ter(s.0 FIf Ho/ see(s to be offering a distinction witho+t a difference1.bloodbath0 %ers+s .blood flowing in the streets01we sho+ld re(e(ber that e%en in retreat (ode) e/*erts can be self2ser%ing.G After the relief had settled in) after *eo*le re(e(bered how to go abo+t their li%es witho+t the *ressing fear of cri(e) there arose a nat+ral =+estion" E+st where did all those cri(inals go3 At one le%el) the answer see(ed *+CCling. After all) if none of the cri(inologists) *olice officials) econo(ists) *oliticians) or others who traffic in s+ch (atters had foreseen the cri(e decline) how co+ld the& s+ddenl& identif& its ca+ses3 6+t this di%erse ar(& of e/*erts now (arched o+t a *halan/ of h&*otheses to e/*lain the dro* in cri(e. A great (an& news*a*er articles wo+ld be written on the s+bEect. Their concl+sions often hinged on which e/*ert had (ost recentl& s*oken to which re*orter. #ere) ranked b& fre=+enc& of (ention) are the cri(e2dro* e/*lanations cited in articles *+blished fro( 4@@4 to 8BB4 in the ten largest2circ+lation *a*ers in the Le/isNe/is database"

!RI7E2D ROP EXPLANATION

N 76ER !ITATION$

OH

4. Inno%ati%e *olicing strategies

D8

8. Increased reliance on *risons ;. !hanges in crack and other dr+g (arkets ?. Aging of the *o*+lation D. To+gher g+n control laws A. $trong econo(& K. Increased n+(ber of *olice

?K ;; ;8 ;8 8M 8A

M. All other e/*lanations Fincreased +se of ca*ital ;? *+nish(ent) concealed2wea*ons laws) g+n b+&backs) and othersG

If &o+ are the sort of *erson who likes g+essing ga(es) &o+ (a& wish to s*end the ne/t few (o(ents *ondering which of the *receding e/*lanations see( to ha%e (erit and which don't. #int" of the se%en (aEor e/*lanations on the list) onl& three can be shown to ha%e contrib+ted to the dro* in cri(e. The others are) for the (ost *art) fig(ents of so(eone's i(agination) self2interest) or wishf+l thinking. H+rther hint" one of the greatest (eas+rable ca+ses of the cri(e dro* does not a**ear on the list at all) for it didn't recei%e a single news*a*er (ention. Let's begin with a fairl& +ncontro%ersial one" the strong econo(&. The decline in cri(e that began in the earl& 4@@Bs was acco(*anied b& a blistering national econo(& and a significant dro* in +ne(*lo&(ent. It (ight see( to follow that the econo(& was a ha((er that hel*ed beat down cri(e. 6+t a closer look at the data destro&s this theor&. It is tr+e that a stronger Eob (arket (a& (ake certain cri(es relati%el& less attracti%e. 6+t that is onl& the case for cri(es with a direct financial (oti%ation1b+rglar&) robber&) and a+to theft1as o**osed to

%iolent cri(es like ho(icide) assa+lt) and ra*e. 7oreo%er) st+dies ha%e shown that an +ne(*lo&(ent decline of 4 *ercentage *oint acco+nts for a 4 *ercent dro* in non%iolent cri(e. D+ring the 4@@Bs) the +ne(*lo&(ent rate fell b& 8 *ercentage *oints< non%iolent cri(e) (eanwhile) fell b& ro+ghl& ?B *ercent. 6+t an e%en bigger flaw in the strong2econo(& theor& concerns %iolent cri(e. #o(icide fell at a greater rate d+ring the 4@@Bs than an& other sort of cri(e) and a n+(ber of reliable st+dies ha%e shown %irt+all& no link between the econo(& and %iolent cri(e. This weak link is (ade e%en weaker b& glancing back to a recent decade) the 4@ABs) when the econo(& went on a wild growth s*+rt1as did %iolent cri(e. $o while a strong 4@@Bs econo(& (ight ha%e see(ed) on the s+rface) a likel& e/*lanation for the dro* in cri(e) it al(ost certainl& didn't affect cri(inal beha%ior in an& significant wa&. nless) that is) .the econo(&0 is constr+ed in a broader sense1as a (eans to b+ild and (aintain h+ndreds of *risons. Let's now consider another cri(e2dro* e/*lanation" increased reliance on *risons. It (ight hel* to start b& fli**ing the cri(e =+estion aro+nd. Instead of wondering what (ade cri(e fall) think abo+t this" wh& had it risen so dra(aticall& in the first *lace3 D+ring the first half of the twentieth cent+r&) the incidence of %iolent cri(e in the nited $tates was) for the (ost *art) fairl& stead&. 6+t in the earl& 4@ABs) it began to cli(b. In retros*ect) it is clear that one of the (aEor factors *+shing this trend was a (ore lenient E+stice s&ste(. !on%iction rates declined d+ring the 4@ABs) and cri(inals who were con%icted ser%ed shorter sentences. This trend was dri%en in *art b& an e/*ansion in the rights of *eo*le acc+sed of cri(es1a long o%erd+e e/*ansion) so(e wo+ld arg+e. FOthers wo+ld arg+e that the e/*ansion went too far.G At the sa(e ti(e) *oliticians were growing increasingl&

softer on cri(e1.for fear of so+nding racist)0 as the econo(ist :ar& 6ecker has written) .since African2A(ericans and #is*anics co((it a dis*ro*ortionate share of felonies.0 $o if &o+ were the kind of *erson who (ight want to co((it a cri(e) the incenti%es were lining +* in &o+r fa%or" a sli((er likelihood of being con%icted and) if con%icted) a shorter *rison ter(. 6eca+se cri(inals res*ond to incenti%es as readil& as an&one) the res+lt was a s+rge in cri(e. It took so(e ti(e) and a great deal of *olitical t+r(oil) b+t these incenti%es were e%ent+all& c+rtailed. !ri(inals who wo+ld ha%e *re%io+sl& been set free1for dr+g2related offenses and *arole re%ocation in *artic+lar1were instead locked +*. 6etween 4@MB and 8BBB) there was a fifteenfold increase in the n+(ber of *eo*le sent to *rison on dr+g charges. 7an& other sentences) es*eciall& for %iolent cri(e) were lengthened. The total effect was dra(atic. 6& 8BBB) (ore than two (illion *eo*le were in *rison) ro+ghl& fo+r ti(es the n+(ber as of 4@K8. H+ll& half of that increase took *lace d+ring the 4@@Bs. The e%idence linking increased *+nish(ent with lower cri(e rates is %er& strong. #arsh *rison ter(s ha%e been shown to act as both deterrent Ffor the wo+ld2be cri(inal on the streetG and *ro*h&lactic Ffor the wo+ld2be cri(inal who is alread& locked +*G. Logical as this (a& so+nd) so(e cri(inologists ha%e fo+ght the logic. A 4@KK acade(ic st+d& called .On 6ehalf of a 7oratori+( on Prison !onstr+ction0 noted that cri(e rates tend to be high when i(*rison(ent rates are high) and concl+ded that cri(e wo+ld fall if i(*rison(ent rates co+ld onl& be lowered. FHort+natel&) Eailers did not s+ddenl& t+rn loose their wards and sit back waiting for cri(e to fall. As the *olitical scientist 5ohn 5. DiI+lio 5r. later co((ented) .A**arentl&) it takes a Ph.D. in cri(inolog& to do+bt that kee*ing dangero+s cri(inals incarcerated c+ts cri(e.0G The .7oratori+(0 arg+(ent rests on a f+nda(ental conf+sion of

correlation and ca+salit&. !onsider a *arallel arg+(ent. The (a&or of a cit& sees that his citiCens celebrate wildl& when their tea( wins the ,orld $eries. #e is intrig+ed b& this correlation b+t) like the .7oratori+(0 a+thor) fails to see the direction in which the correlation r+ns. $o the following &ear) the (a&or decrees that his citiCens start celebrating the ,orld $eries before the first *itch is thrown1an act that) in his conf+sed (ind) will ens+re a %ictor&. There are certainl& *lent& of reasons to dislike the h+ge s+rge in the *rison *o*+lation. Not e%er&one is *leased that s+ch a significant fraction of A(ericans) es*eciall& black A(ericans) li%e behind bars. Nor does *rison e%en begin to address the root ca+ses of cri(e) which are di%erse and co(*le/. Lastl&) *rison is hardl& a chea* sol+tion" it costs abo+t I8D)BBB a &ear to kee* so(eone incarcerated. 6+t if the goal here is to e/*lain the dro* in cri(e in the 4@@Bs) i(*rison(ent is certainl& one of the ke& answers. It acco+nts for ro+ghl& one2third of the dro* in cri(e. Another cri(e2dro* e/*lanation is often cited in tande( with i(*rison(ent" the increased +se of ca*ital *+nish(ent. The n+(ber of e/ec+tions in the nited $tates =+adr+*led between the 4@MBs and the 4@@Bs) leading (an& *eo*le to concl+de1in the conte/t of a debate that has been going on for decades1that ca*ital *+nish(ent hel*ed dri%e down cri(e. Lost in the debate) howe%er) are two i(*ortant facts. Hirst) gi%en the rarit& with which e/ec+tions are carried o+t in this co+ntr& and the long dela&s in doing so) no reasonable cri(inal sho+ld be deterred b& the threat of e/ec+tion. E%en tho+gh ca*ital *+nish(ent =+adr+*led within a decade) there were still onl& ?KM e/ec+tions in the entire nited $tates d+ring the 4@@Bs. An& *arent who has e%er said to a recalcitrant child) .Oka&) I'( going to co+nt to

ten and this ti(e I'( reall& going to *+nish &o+)0 knows the difference between deterrent and e(*t& threat. New York $tate) for instance) has not as of this writing e/ec+ted a single cri(inal since reinstit+ting its death *enalt& in 4@@D. E%en a(ong *risoners on death row) the ann+al e/ec+tion rate is onl& 8 *ercent1co(*ared with the K *ercent ann+al chance of d&ing faced b& a (e(ber of the 6lack :angster Disci*le Nation crack gang. If life on death row is safer than life on the streets) it's hard to belie%e that the fear of e/ec+tion is a dri%ing force in a cri(inal's calc+l+s. Like the I; fine for late arri%ing *arents at the Israeli da&2care centers) the negati%e incenti%e of ca*ital *+nish(ent si(*l& isn't serio+s eno+gh for a cri(inal to change his beha%ior. The second flaw in the ca*ital *+nish(ent arg+(ent is e%en (ore ob%io+s. Ass+(e for a (o(ent that the death *enalt& is a deterrent. #ow (+ch cri(e does it act+all& deter3 The econo(ist Isaac Ehrlich) in an oft2cited 4@KD *a*er) *+t forth an esti(ate that is generall& considered o*ti(istic" e/ec+ting 4 cri(inal translates into K fewer ho(icides that the cri(inal (ight ha%e co((itted. Now do the (ath. In 4@@4) there were 4? e/ec+tions in the nited $tates< in 8BB4) there were AA. According to Ehrlich's calc+lation) those D8 additional e/ec+tions wo+ld ha%e acco+nted for ;A? fewer ho(icides in 8BB41 not a s(all dro*) to be s+re) b+t less than ? *ercent of the act+al decrease in ho(icides that &ear. $o e%en in a death *enalt& ad%ocate's best2case scenario) ca*ital *+nish(ent co+ld e/*lain onl& one twent&2 fifth of the dro* in ho(icides in the 4@@Bs. And beca+se the death *enalt& is rarel& gi%en for cri(es other than ho(icide) its deterrent effect cannot acco+nt for a s*eck of decline in other %iolent cri(es. It is e/tre(el& +nlikel&) therefore) that the death *enalt&) as c+rrentl& *racticed in the nited $tates) e/erts an& real infl+ence on cri(e rates. E%en (an& of its oneti(e s+**orters ha%e co(e to this concl+sion. .I

feel (orall& and intellect+all& obligated si(*l& to concede that the death *enalt& e/*eri(ent has failed)0 said .$. $+*re(e !o+rt 5+stice #arr& A. 6lack(+n in 4@@?) nearl& twent& &ears after he had %oted for its reinstate(ent. .I no longer shall tinker with the (achiner& of death.0 $o it wasn't ca*ital *+nish(ent that dro%e cri(e down) nor was it the boo(ing econo(&. 6+t higher rates of i(*rison(ent did ha%e a lot to do with it. All those cri(inals didn't (arch into Eail b& the(sel%es) of co+rse. $o(eone had to in%estigate the cri(e) catch the bad g+&) and *+t together the case that wo+ld get hi( con%icted. ,hich nat+rall& leads to a related *air of cri(e2dro* e/*lanations" Inno%ati%e *olicing strategies Increased n+(ber of *olice

Let's address the second one first. The n+(ber of *olice officers *er ca*ita in the nited $tates rose abo+t 4? *ercent d+ring the 4@@Bs. Does (erel& increasing the n+(ber of *olice) howe%er) red+ce cri(e3 The answer wo+ld see( ob%io+s1&es1b+t *ro%ing that answer isn't so eas&. That's beca+se when cri(e is rising) *eo*le cla(or for *rotection) and in%ariabl& (ore (one& is fo+nd for co*s. $o if &o+ E+st look at raw correlations between *olice and cri(e) &o+ will find that when there are (ore *olice) there tends to be (ore cri(e. That doesn't (ean) of co+rse) that the *olice are ca+sing the cri(e) E+st as it doesn't (ean) as so(e cri(inologists ha%e arg+ed) that cri(e will fall if cri(inals are released fro( *rison. To show ca+salit&) we need a scenario in which (ore *olice are hired for reasons co(*letel& +nrelated to rising cri(e. If) for instance) *olice were rando(l& s*rinkled in so(e cities and not in others) we co+ld

look to see whether cri(e declines in the cities where the *olice ha**en to land. As it t+rns o+t) that e/act scenario is often created b& %ote2h+ngr& *oliticians. In the (onths leading +* to Election Da&) inc+(bent (a&ors ro+tinel& tr& to lock +* the law2and2order %ote b& hiring (ore *olice1e%en when the cri(e rate is standing still. $o b& co(*aring the cri(e rate in one set of cities that ha%e recentl& had an election Fand which therefore hired e/tra *oliceG with another set of cities that had no election Fand therefore no e/tra *oliceG) it's *ossible to tease o+t the effect of the e/tra *olice on cri(e. The answer" &es indeed) additional *olice s+bstantiall& lower the cri(e rate. Again) it (a& hel* to look backward and see wh& cri(e had risen so (+ch in the first *lace. Hro( 4@AB to 4@MD) the n+(ber of *olice officers fell (ore than DB *ercent relati%e to the n+(ber of cri(es. In so(e cases) hiring additional *olice was considered a %iolation of the era's liberal aesthetic< in others) it was si(*l& considered too e/*ensi%e. This DB *ercent decline in *olice translated into a ro+ghl& e=+al decline in the *robabilit& that a gi%en cri(inal wo+ld be ca+ght. !o+*led with the abo%e2cited lenienc& in the other half of the cri(inal E+stice s&ste() the co+rtroo(s) this decrease in *olicing created a strong *ositi%e incenti%e for cri(inals. 6& the 4@@Bs) *hiloso*hies1and necessities1had changed. The *olicing trend was *+t in re%erse) with wide2scale hiring in cities across the co+ntr&. Not onl& did all those *olice act as a deterrent) b+t the& also *ro%ided the (an*ower to i(*rison cri(inals who (ight ha%e otherwise gone +nca+ght. The hiring of additional *olice acco+nted for ro+ghl& 4B *ercent of the 4@@Bs cri(e dro*.

6+t it wasn't onl& the n+(ber of *olice that changed in the 4@@Bs< consider the (ost co((onl& cited cri(e2dro* e/*lanation of all" inno%ati%e *olicing strategies. There was *erha*s no (ore attracti%e theor& than the belief that s(art *olicing sto*s cri(e. It offered a set of bona fide heroes rather than si(*l& a dearth of %illains. This theor& ra*idl& beca(e an article of faith beca+se it a**ealed to the factors that) according to 5ohn 9enneth :albraith) (ost contrib+te to the for(ation of con%entional wisdo(" the ease with which an idea (a& be +nderstood and the degree to which it affects o+r *ersonal well2being. The stor& *la&ed o+t (ost dra(aticall& in New York !it&) where newl& elected (a&or R+dol*h :i+liani and his hand*icked *olice co((issioner) ,illia( 6ratton) %owed to fi/ the cit&'s des*erate cri(e sit+ation. 6ratton took a no%el a**roach to *olicing. #e +shered the NYPD into what one senior *olice official later called .o+r Athenian *eriod)0 in which new ideas were gi%en weight o%er calcified *ractices. Instead of coddling his *recinct co((anders) 6ratton de(anded acco+ntabilit&. Instead of rel&ing solel& on old2fashioned co* know2 how) he introd+ced technological sol+tions like !o(*$tat) a co(*+teriCed (ethod of addressing cri(e hot s*ots. The (ost co(*elling new idea that 6ratton bro+ght to life ste((ed fro( the broken window theor&) which was concei%ed b& the cri(inologists 5a(es Q. ,ilson and :eorge 9elling. The broken window theor& arg+es that (inor n+isances) if left +nchecked) t+rn into (aEor n+isances" that is) if so(eone breaks a window and sees it isn't fi/ed i((ediatel&) he gets the signal that it's all right to break the rest of the windows and (a&be set the b+ilding afire too.

$o with (+rder raging all aro+nd) 6ill 6ratton's co*s began to *olice the sort of deeds that +sed to go +n*oliced" E+(*ing a s+bwa& t+rnstile) *anhandling too aggressi%el&) +rinating in the streets) swabbing a filth& s=+eegee across a car's windshield +nless the dri%er (ade an a**ro*riate .donation.0 7ost New Yorkers lo%ed this crackdown on its own (erit. 6+t the& *artic+larl& lo%ed the idea) as sto+tl& *reached b& 6ratton and :i+liani) that choking off these s(all cri(es was like choking off the cri(inal ele(ent's o/&gen s+**l&. Toda&'s t+rnstile E+(*er (ight easil& be wanted for &esterda&'s (+rder. That E+nkie *eeing in an alle& (ight ha%e been on his wa& to a robber&. As %iolent cri(e began to fall dra(aticall&) New Yorkers were (ore than ha**& to hea* la+rels on their o*eratic) 6rookl&n2bred (a&or and his hatchet2faced *olice chief with the big 6oston accent. 6+t the two strong2willed (en weren't %er& good at sharing the glor&. $oon after the cit&'s cri(e t+rnaro+nd landed 6ratton1and not :i+liani1on the co%er of Ti(e) 6ratton was *+shed to resign. #e had been *olice co((issioner for E+st twent&2se%en (onths. New York !it& was a clear inno%ator in *olice strategies d+ring the 4@@Bs cri(e dro*) and it also enEo&ed the greatest decline in cri(e of an& large A(erican cit&. #o(icide rates fell fro( ;B.K *er 4BB)BBB *eo*le in 4@@B to M.? *er 4BB)BBB *eo*le in 8BBB) a change of K;.A *ercent. 6+t a caref+l anal&sis of the facts shows that the inno%ati%e *olicing strategies *robabl& had little effect on this h+ge decline. Hirst) the dro* in cri(e in New York began in 4@@B. 6& the end of 4@@;) the rate of *ro*ert& cri(e and %iolent cri(e) incl+ding ho(icides) had alread& fallen nearl& 8B *ercent. R+dol*h :i+liani) howe%er) did not beco(e (a&or1and install 6ratton1+ntil earl& 4@@?. !ri(e was well

on its wa& down before either (an arri%ed. And it wo+ld contin+e to fall long after 6ratton was b+(*ed fro( office. $econd) the new *olice strategies were acco(*anied b& a (+ch (ore significant change within the *olice force" a hiring binge. 6etween 4@@4 and 8BB4) the NYPD grew b& ?D *ercent) (ore than three ti(es the national a%erage. As arg+ed abo%e) an increase in the n+(ber of *olice) regardless of new strategies) has been *ro%en to red+ce cri(e. 6& a conser%ati%e calc+lation) this h+ge e/*ansion of New York's *olice force wo+ld be e/*ected to red+ce cri(e in New York b& 4M *ercent relati%e to the national a%erage. If &o+ s+btract that 4M *ercent fro( New York's ho(icide red+ction) thereb& disco+nting the effect of the *olice2hiring s+rge) New York no longer leads the nation with its K;.A *ercent dro*< it goes straight to the (iddle of the *ack. 7an& of those new *olice were in fact hired b& Da%id Dinkins) the (a&or who( :i+liani defeated. Dinkins had been des*erate to sec+re the law2and2 order %ote) ha%ing known all along that his o**onent wo+ld be :i+liani) a for(er federal *rosec+tor. FThe two (en had r+n against each other fo+r &ears earlier as well.G $o those who wish to credit :i+liani with the cri(e dro* (a& still do so) for it was his own law2and2order re*+tation that (ade Dinkins hire all those *olice. In the end) of co+rse) the *olice increase hel*ed e%er&2one1b+t it hel*ed :i+liani a lot (ore than Dinkins. 7ost da(aging to the clai( that New York's *olice inno%ations radicall& lowered cri(e is one si(*le and often o%erlooked fact" cri(e went down e%er&where d+ring the 4@@Bs) not onl& in New York. Hew other cities tried the kind of strategies that New York did) and certainl& none with the sa(e Ceal. 6+t e%en in Los Angeles) a cit& notorio+s for bad *olicing) cri(e fell at abo+t the sa(e rate as it did in New York once the growth in New York's *olice force is acco+nted for.

It wo+ld be ch+rlish to arg+e that s(art *olicing isn't a good thing. 6ill 6ratton certainl& deser%es credit for in%igorating New York's *olice force. 6+t there is frighteningl& little e%idence that his strateg& was the cri(e *anacea that he and the (edia dee(ed it. The ne/t ste* will be to contin+e (eas+ring the i(*act of *olice inno%ations1in Los Angeles) for instance) where 6ratton hi(self beca(e *olice chief in late 8BB8. ,hile he d+l& instit+ted so(e of the inno%ations that were his hall(ark in New York) 6ratton anno+nced that his highest *riorit& was a (ore basic one" finding the (one& to hire tho+sands of new *olice officers. Now to e/*lore another *air of co((on cri(e2dro* e/*lanations" To+gher g+n laws !hanges in crack and other dr+g (arkets

Hirst) the g+ns. Debates on this s+bEect are rarel& coolheaded. :+n ad%ocates belie%e that g+n laws are too strict< o**onents belie%e e/actl& the o**osite. #ow can intelligent *eo*le %iew the world so differentl&3 6eca+se a g+n raises a co(*le/ set of iss+es that change according to one factor" whose hand ha**ens to be holding the g+n. It (ight be worthwhile to take a ste* back and ask a r+di(entar& =+estion" what is a g+n3 It's a tool that can be +sed to kill so(eone) of co+rse) b+t (ore significantl&) a g+n is a great disr+*ter of the nat+ral order. A g+n scra(bles the o+tco(e of an& dis*+te. Let's sa& that a to+gh g+& and a not2so2to+gh g+& e/change words in a bar) which leads to a fight. It's *rett& ob%io+s to the not2so2to+gh g+& that he'll be beaten) so wh& bother fighting3 The *ecking order re(ains intact. 6+t if the not2so2to+gh g+& ha**ens to ha%e a g+n) he stands a good chance of

winning. In this scenario) the introd+ction of a g+n (a& well lead to (ore %iolence. Now instead of the to+gh g+& and the not2so2to+gh g+&) *ict+re a high2 school girl o+t for a nightti(e stroll when she is s+ddenl& set +*on b& a (+gger. ,hat if onl& the (+gger is ar(ed3 ,hat if onl& the girl is ar(ed3 ,hat if both are ar(ed3 A g+n o**onent (ight arg+e that the g+n has to be ke*t o+t of the (+gger's hands in the first *lace. A g+n ad%ocate (ight arg+e that the high2school girl needs to ha%e a g+n to disr+*t what has beco(e the nat+ral order" it's the bad g+&s that ha%e the g+ns. FIf the girl scares off the (+gger) then the introd+ction of a g+n in this case (a& lead to less %iolence.G An& (+gger with e%en a little initiati%e is bo+nd to be ar(ed) for in a co+ntr& like the one. There are eno+gh g+ns in the Nearl& two2thirds of nited $tates that if &o+ ga%e one to nited $tates) with a thri%ing black (arket in g+ns) an&one can get hold of

e%er& ad+lt) &o+ wo+ld r+n o+t of ad+lts before &o+ ran o+t of g+ns. .$. ho(icides in%ol%e a g+n) a far greater fraction than in other ind+strialiCed co+ntries. O+r ho(icide rate is also (+ch higher than in those co+ntries. It wo+ld therefore see( likel& that o+r ho(icide rate is so high in *art beca+se g+ns are so easil& a%ailable. Research indeed shows this to be tr+e. 6+t g+ns are not the whole stor&. In $witCerland) e%er& ad+lt (ale is iss+ed an assa+lt rifle for (ilitia d+t& and is allowed to kee* the g+n at ho(e. On a *er ca*ita basis) $witCerland has (ore firear(s than E+st abo+t an& other co+ntr&) and &et it is one of the safest *laces in the world. In other words) g+ns do not ca+se cri(e. That said) the established .$. (ethods of kee*ing g+ns awa& fro( the *eo*le who do ca+se cri(e are) at best) feeble. And since a g+n1+nlike a bag of cocaine or a car or a *air of *ants1lasts *rett& (+ch fore%er) e%en

t+rning off the s*igot of new g+ns still lea%es an ocean of a%ailable ones. $o bearing all this in (ind) let's consider a %ariet& of recent g+n initiati%es to see the i(*act the& (a& ha%e had on cri(e in the 4@@Bs. The (ost fa(o+s g+n2control law is the 6rad& Act) *assed in 4@@;) which re=+ires a cri(inal check and a waiting *eriod before a *erson can *+rchase a handg+n. This sol+tion (a& ha%e see(ed a**ealing to *oliticians) b+t to an econo(ist it doesn't (ake (+ch sense. ,h&3 6eca+se reg+lation of a legal (arket is bo+nd to fail when a health& black (arket e/ists for the sa(e *rod+ct. ,ith g+ns so chea* and so eas& to get) the standard cri(inal has no incenti%e to fill o+t a firear(s a**lication at his local g+n sho* and then wait a week. The 6rad& Act) accordingl&) has *ro%en to be *racticall& i(*otent in lowering cri(e. FA st+d& of i(*risoned felons showed that e%en before the 6rad& Act) onl& abo+t one2fifth of the cri(inals had bo+ght their g+ns thro+gh a licensed dealer.G >ario+s local g+n2control laws ha%e also failed. ,ashington) D.!.) and !hicago both instit+ted handg+n bans well before cri(e began to fall across the co+ntr& in the 4@@Bs) and &et those two cities were laggards) not leaders) in the national red+ction in cri(e. One deterrent that has *ro%en (oderatel& effecti%e is a stiff increase in *rison ti(e for an&one ca+ght in *ossession of an illegal g+n. 6+t there is *lent& of roo( for i(*ro%e(ent. Not that this is likel&) b+t if the death *enalt& were assessed to an&one carr&ing an illegal g+n) and if the *enalt& were act+all& enforced) g+n cri(es wo+ld s+rel& *l+nge. Another sta*le of 4@@Bs cri(e fighting1and of the e%ening news1was the g+n b+&back. Yo+ re(e(ber the i(age" a (enacing) glistening hea* of firear(s s+rro+nded b& the (a&or) the *olice chief) the neighborhood acti%ists. It (ade for a nice *hoto o*) b+t that's abo+t as

(eaningf+l as a g+n b+&back is. The g+ns that get t+rned in are generall& heirloo(s or E+nk. The *a&off to the g+n seller1+s+all& IDB or I4BB) b+t in one !alifornia b+&back) three free ho+rs of *s&chothera*&1isn't an ade=+ate incenti%e for an&one who act+all& *lans to +se his g+n. And the n+(ber of s+rrendered g+ns is no (atch for e%en the n+(ber of new g+ns si(+ltaneo+sl& co(ing to (arket. :i%en the n+(ber of handg+ns in the nited $tates and the n+(ber of ho(icides each &ear) the likelihood that a *artic+lar g+n was +sed to kill so(eone that &ear is 4 in 4B)BBB. The t&*ical g+n b+&back *rogra( &ields fewer than 4)BBB g+ns1which translates into an e/*ectation of less than one2tenth of one ho(icide *er b+&back. Not eno+gh) that is) to (ake e%en a sli%er of i(*act on the fall of cri(e. Then there is an o**osite arg+(ent1that we need (ore g+ns on the street) b+t in the hands of the right *eo*le Flike the high2school girl abo%e) instead of her (+ggerG. The econo(ist 5ohn R. Lott 5r. is the (ain cha(*ion of this idea. #is calling card is the book 7ore :+ns) Less !ri(e) in which he arg+es that %iolent cri(e has decreased in areas where law2abiding citiCens are allowed to carr& concealed wea*ons. #is theor& (ight be s+r*rising) b+t it is sensible. If a cri(inal thinks his *otential %icti( (a& be ar(ed) he (a& be deterred fro( co((itting the cri(e. #andg+n o**onents call Lott a *ro2g+n ideolog+e) and Lott let hi(self beco(e a lightning rod for g+n contro%ers&. #e e/acerbated his tro+ble b& creating a *se+don&() .7ar& Rosh)0 to defend his theor& in online debates. Rosh) identif&ing herself as a for(er st+dent of Lott's) *raised her teacher's intellect) his e%enhandedness) his charis(a. .I ha%e to sa& that he was the best *rofessor that I e%er had)0 sLhe wrote. .Yo+ wo+ldn't know that he was a Rright2wing' ideolog+e fro( the class-. There were a gro+* of +s st+dents who wo+ld tr& to take an& class that he ta+ght. Lott finall& had to tell +s that it was best for +s to tr& and take classes fro( other

*rofessors (ore to be e/*osed to other wa&s of teaching grad+ate (aterial.0 Then there was the tro+bling allegation that Lott act+all& in %ented so(e of the s+r%e& data that s+**ort his (ore2g+nsLless2cri(e theor&. Regardless of whether the data were faked) Lott's ad(ittedl& intrig+ing h&*othesis doesn't see( to be tr+e. ,hen other scholars ha%e tried to re*licate his res+lts) the& fo+nd that right2to2carr& laws si(*l& don't bring down cri(e.

!onsider the ne/t cri(e2dro* e/*lanation" the b+rsting of the crack b+bble. !rack cocaine was s+ch a *otent) addicti%e dr+g that a h+gel& *rofitable (arket had been created *racticall& o%ernight. Tr+e) it was onl& the leaders of the crack gangs who were getting rich. 6+t that onl& (ade the street2le%el dealers all the (ore des*erate to ad%ance. 7an& of the( were willing to kill their ri%als to do so) whether the ri%al belonged to the sa(e gang or a different one. There were also g+n battles o%er %al+able dr+g2selling corners. The t&*ical crack (+rder in%ol%ed one crack dealer shooting another For two of the() or threeG and not) contrar& to con%entional wisdo() so(e b+g2e&ed crackhead shooting a sho*kee*er o%er a few dollars. The res+lt was a h+ge increase in %iolent cri(e. One st+d& fo+nd that (ore than 8D *ercent of the ho(icides in New York !it& in 4@MM were crack2related. The %iolence associated with crack began to ebb in abo+t 4@@4. This has led (an& *eo*le to think that crack itself went awa&. It didn't. $(oking crack re(ains (+ch (ore *o*+lar toda& than (ost *eo*le realiCe. Nearl& D *ercent of all arrests in the nited $tates are still related to cocaine Fas against A *ercent at crack's *eakG< nor ha%e e(ergenc& roo( %isits for crack +sers di(inished all that (+ch.

,hat did go awa& were the h+ge *rofits for selling crack. The *rice of cocaine had been falling for &ears) and it got onl& chea*er as crack grew (ore *o*+lar. Dealers began to +nder*rice one another< *rofits %anished. The crack b+bble b+rst as dra(aticall& as the Nasda= b+bble wo+ld e%ent+all& b+rst. FThink of the first generation of crack dealers as the 7icrosoft (illionaires< think of the second generation as Pets.co(.G As %eteran crack dealers were killed or sent to *rison) &o+nger dealers decided that the s(aller *rofits didn't E+stif& the risk. The to+rna(ent had lost its all+re. It was no longer worth killing so(eone to steal their crack t+rf) and certainl& not worth being killed. $o the %iolence abated. Hro( 4@@4 to 8BB4) the ho(icide rate a(ong &o+ng black (en1who were dis*ro*ortionatel& re*resented a(ong crack dealers1fell ?M *ercent) co(*ared to ;B *ercent for older black (en and older white (en. FAnother (inor contrib+tor to the falling ho(icide rate is the fact that so(e crack dealers took to shooting their ene(ies in the b+ttocks rather than (+rdering the(< this (ethod of %iolent ins+lt was considered (ore degrading1and was ob%io+sl& less se%erel& *+nished1than (+rder.G All told) the crash of the crack (arket acco+nted for ro+ghl& 4D *ercent of the cri(e dro* of the 4@@Bs1a s+bstantial factor) to be s+re) tho+gh it sho+ld be noted that crack was res*onsible for far (ore than 4D *ercent of the cri(e increase of the 4@MBs. In other words) the net effect of crack is still being felt in the for( of %iolent cri(e) to sa& nothing of the (iseries the dr+g itself contin+es to ca+se.

The final *air of cri(e2dro* e/*lanations concern two de(ogra*hic trends. The first one recei%ed (an& (edia citations" aging of the *o*+lation.

ntil cri(e fell so drasticall&) no one talked abo+t this theor& at all. In fact) the .bloodbath0 school of cri(inolog& was to+ting e/actl& the o**osite theor&1that an increase in the teenage share of the *o*+lation wo+ld *rod+ce a cro* of s+*er*redators who wo+ld la& the nation low. .5+st be&ond the horiCon) there l+rks a clo+d that the winds will soon bring o%er +s)0 5a(es Q. ,ilson wrote in 4@@D. .The *o*+lation will start getting &o+nger again-. :et read&.0 6+t o%erall) the teenage share of the *o*+lation wasn't getting (+ch bigger. !ri(inologists like ,ilson and 5a(es Alan Ho/ had badl& (isread the de(ogra*hic data. The real *o*+lation growth in the 4@@Bs was in fact a(ong the elderl&. ,hile this (a& ha%e been scar& news in ter(s of 7edicare and $ocial $ec+rit&) the a%erage A(erican had little to fear fro( the growing horde of oldsters. It sho+ldn't be s+r*rising to learn that elderl& *eo*le are not %er& cri(inall& intent< the a%erage si/t&2fi%e2&ear2old is abo+t one2fiftieth as likel& to be arrested as the a%erage teenager. That is what (akes this aging2of2 the2*o*+lation theor& of cri(e red+ction so a**ealingl& tid&" since *eo*le (ellow o+t as the& get older) (ore older *eo*le (+st lead to less cri(e. 6+t a thoro+gh look at the data re%eals that the gra&ing of A(erica did nothing to bring down cri(e in the 4@@Bs. De(ogra*hic change is too slow and s+btle a *rocess1&o+ don't grad+ate fro( teenage hoodl+( to senior citiCen in E+st a few &ears1to e%en begin to e/*lain the s+ddenness of the cri(e decline. There was another de(ogra*hic change) howe%er) +nforeseen and long2gestating) that did drasticall& red+ce cri(e in the 4@@Bs. Think back for a (o(ent to Ro(ania in 4@AA. $+ddenl& and witho+t warning) Nicolae !ea+3esc+ declared abortion illegal. The children born in the wake of the abortion ban were (+ch (ore likel& to beco(e cri(inals than children born earlier. ,h& was that3 $t+dies in other

*arts of Eastern E+ro*e and in $candina%ia fro( the 4@;Bs thro+gh the 4@ABs re%eal a si(ilar trend. In (ost of these cases) abortion was not forbidden o+tright) b+t a wo(an had to recei%e *er(ission fro( a E+dge in order to obtain one. Researchers fo+nd that in the instances where the wo(an was denied an abortion) she often resented her bab& and failed to *ro%ide it with a good ho(e. E%en when controlling for the inco(e) age) ed+cation) and health of the (other) the researchers fo+nd that these children too were (ore likel& to beco(e cri(inals. The nited $tates) (eanwhile) has had a different abortion histor&

than E+ro*e. In the earl& da&s of the nation) it was *er(issible to ha%e an abortion *rior to .=+ickening01that is) when the first (o%e(ents of the fet+s co+ld be felt) +s+all& aro+nd the si/teenth to eighteenth week of *regnanc&. In 4M8M) New York beca(e the first state to restrict abortion< b& 4@BB it had been (ade illegal thro+gho+t the co+ntr&. Abortion in the twentieth cent+r& was often dangero+s and +s+all& e/*ensi%e. Hewer *oor wo(en) therefore) had abortions. The& also had less access to birth control. ,hat the& did ha%e) accordingl&) was a lot (ore babies. In the late 4@ABs) se%eral states began to allow abortion +nder e/tre(e circ+(stances" ra*e) incest) or danger to the (other. 6& 4@KB fi%e states had (ade abortion entirel& legal and broadl& a%ailable" New York) !alifornia) ,ashington) Alaska) and #awaii. On 5an+ar& 88) 4@K;) legaliCed abortion was s+ddenl& e/tended to the entire co+ntr& with the .$. $+*re(e !o+rt's r+ling in Roe %. ,ade. The (aEorit& o*inion) written b& 5+stice #arr& 6lack(+n) s*oke s*ecificall& to the wo+ld2be (other's *redica(ent" The detri(ent that the $tate wo+ld i(*ose +*on the *regnant wo(an b& den&ing this choice altogether is a**arent-. 7aternit&) or additional offs*ring) (a& force +*on the wo(an a distressf+l life and

f+t+re. Ps&chological har( (a& be i((inent. 7ental and *h&sical health (a& be ta/ed b& child care. There is also the distress) for all concerned) associated with the +nwanted child) and there is the *roble( of bringing a child into a fa(il& alread& +nable) *s&chologicall& and otherwise) to care for it. The $+*re(e !o+rt ga%e %oice to what the (others in Ro(ania and $candina%ia1and elsewhere1had long known" when a wo(an does not want to ha%e a child) she +s+all& has good reason. $he (a& be +n(arried or in a bad (arriage. $he (a& consider herself too *oor to raise a child. $he (a& think her life is too +nstable or +nha**&) or she (a& think that her drinking or dr+g +se will da(age the bab&'s health. $he (a& belie%e that she is too &o+ng or hasn't &et recei%ed eno+gh ed+cation. $he (a& want a child badl& b+t in a few &ears) not now. Hor an& of a h+ndred reasons) she (a& feel that she cannot *ro%ide a ho(e en%iron(ent that is cond+ci%e to raising a health& and *rod+cti%e child. In the first &ear after Roe %. ,ade) so(e KDB)BBB wo(en had abortions in the nited $tates Fre*resenting one abortion for e%er& ? li%e birthsG. 6& 4@MB the n+(ber of abortions reached 4.A (illion Fone for e%er& 8.8D li%e birthsG) where it le%eled off. In a co+ntr& of 88D (illion *eo*le) 4.A (illion abortions *er &ear1one for e%er& 4?B A(ericans1(a& not ha%e see(ed so dra(atic. In the first &ear after Nicolae !ea+3esc+'s death) when abortion was reinstated in Ro(ania) there was one abortion for e%er& twent&2two Ro(anians. 6+t still" 4.A (illion A(erican wo(en a &ear who got *regnant were s+ddenl& not ha%ing those babies. 6efore Roe %. ,ade) it was *redo(inantl& the da+ghters of (iddle2or +**er2class fa(ilies who co+ld arrange and afford a safe illegal

abortion. Now) instead of an illegal *roced+re that (ight cost IDBB) an& wo(an co+ld easil& obtain an abortion) often for less than I4BB. ,hat sort of wo(an was (ost likel& to take ad%antage of Roe%. ,ade3 >er& often she was +n(arried or in her teens or *oor) and so(eti(es all three. ,hat sort of f+t+re (ight her child ha%e had3 One st+d& has shown that the t&*ical child who went +nborn in the earliest &ears of legaliCed abortion wo+ld ha%e been DB *ercent (ore likel& than a%erage to li%e in *o%ert&< he wo+ld ha%e also been AB *ercent (ore likel& to grow +* with E+st one *arent. These two factors1childhood *o%ert& and a single2*arent ho+sehold1are a(ong the strongest *redictors that a child will ha%e a cri(inal f+t+re. :rowing +* in a single2*arent ho(e ro+ghl& do+bles a child's *ro*ensit& to co((it cri(e. $o does ha%ing a teenage (other. Another st+d& has shown that low (aternal ed+cation is the single (ost *owerf+l factor leading to cri(inalit&. In other words) the %er& factors that dro%e (illions of A(erican wo(en to ha%e an abortion also see(ed to *redict that their children) had the& been born) wo+ld ha%e led +nha**& and *ossibl& cri(inal li%es. To be s+re) the legaliCation of abortion in the nited $tates had (&riad

conse=+ences. Infanticide fell dra(aticall&. $o did shotg+n (arriages) as well as the n+(ber of babies *+t +* for ado*tion Fwhich has led to the boo( in the ado*tion of foreign babiesG. !once*tions rose b& nearl& ;B *ercent) b+t births act+all& fell b& A *ercent) indicating that (an& wo(en were +sing abortion as a (ethod of birth control) a cr+de and drastic sort of ins+rance *olic&. Perha*s the (ost dra(atic effect of legaliCed abortion) howe%er) and one that wo+ld take &ears to re%eal itself) was its i(*act on cri(e. In the earl& 4@@Bs) E+st as the first cohort of children born after Roe%.

,ade was hitting its late teen &ears1the &ears d+ring which &o+ng (en enter their cri(inal *ri(e1the rate of cri(e began to fall. ,hat this cohort was (issing) of co+rse) were the children who stood the greatest chance of beco(ing cri(inals. And the cri(e rate contin+ed to fall as an entire generation ca(e of age (in+s the children whose (others had not wanted to bring a child into the world. LegaliCed abortion led to less +nwantedness< +nwantedness leads to high cri(e< legaliCed abortion) therefore) led to less cri(e. This theor& is bo+nd to *ro%oke a %ariet& of reactions) ranging fro( disbelief to re%+lsion) and a %ariet& of obEections) ranging fro( the =+otidian to the (oral. The likeliest first obEection is the (ost straightforward one" is the theor& tr+e3 Perha*s abortion and cri(e are (erel& correlated and not ca+sal. It (a& be (ore co(forting to belie%e what the news*a*ers sa&) that the dro* in cri(e was d+e to brilliant *olicing and cle%er g+n control and a s+rging econo(&. ,e ha%e e%ol%ed with a tendenc& to link ca+salit& to things we can to+ch or feel) not to so(e distant or diffic+lt *heno(enon. ,e belie%e es*eciall& in near2ter( ca+ses" a snake bites &o+r friend) he screa(s with *ain) and he dies. The snakebite) &o+ concl+de) (+st ha%e killed hi(. 7ost of the ti(e) s+ch a reckoning is correct. 6+t when it co(es to ca+se and effect) there is often a tra* in s+ch o*en2and2sh+t thinking. ,e s(irk now when we think of ancient c+lt+res that e(braced fa+lt& ca+ses1the warriors who belie%ed) for instance) that it was their ra*ing of a %irgin that bro+ght the( %ictor& on the battlefield. 6+t we too e(brace fa+lt& ca+ses) +s+all& at the +rging of an e/*ert *roclai(ing a tr+th in which he has a %ested interest. #ow) then) can we tell if the abortion2cri(e link is a case of ca+salit& rather than si(*l& correlation3

One wa& to test the effect of abortion on cri(e wo+ld be to (eas+re cri(e data in the fi%e states where abortion was (ade legal before the $+*re(e !o+rt e/tended abortion rights to the rest of the co+ntr&. In New York) !alifornia) ,ashington) Alaska) and #awaii) a wo(an had been able to obtain a legal abortion for at least two &ears before Roe %. ,ade. And indeed) those earl&2legaliCing states saw cri(e begin to fall earlier than the other fort&2fi%e states and the District of !ol+(bia. 6etween 4@MM and 4@@?) %iolent cri(e in the earl&2legaliCing states fell 4; *ercent co(*ared to the other states< between 4@@? and 4@@K) their (+rder rates fell 8; *ercent (ore than those of the other states. 6+t what if those earl& legaliCers si(*l& got l+ck&3 ,hat else (ight we look for in the data to establish an abortion2cri(e link3 One factor to look for wo+ld be a correlation between each state's abortion rate and its cri(e rate. $+re eno+gh) the states with the highest abortion rates in the 4@KBs e/*erienced the greatest cri(e dro*s in the 4@@Bs) while states with low abortion rates e/*erienced s(aller cri(e dro*s. FThis correlation e/ists e%en when controlling for a %ariet& of factors that infl+ence cri(e" a state's le%el of incarceration) n+(ber of *olice) and its econo(ic sit+ation.G $ince 4@MD) states with high abortion rates ha%e e/*erienced a ro+ghl& ;B *ercent dro* in cri(e relati%e to low2abortion states. FNew York !it& had high abortion rates and la& within an earl&2legaliCing state) a *air of facts that f+rther da(*en the clai( that inno%ati%e *olicing ca+sed the cri(e dro*.G 7oreo%er) there was no link between a gi%en state's abortion rate and its cri(e rate before the late 4@MBs1when the first cohort affected b& legaliCed abortion was reaching its cri(inal *ri(e1 which is &et another indication that Roe %. ,ade was indeed the e%ent that ti**ed the cri(e scale.

There are e%en (ore correlations) *ositi%e and negati%e) that shore +* the abortion2cri(e link. In states with high abortion rates) the entire decline in cri(e was a(ong the *ost2Roe cohort as o**osed to older cri(inals. Also) st+dies of A+stralia and !anada ha%e since established a si(ilar link between legaliCed abortion and cri(e. And the *ost2Roe cohort was not onl& (issing tho+sands of &o+ng (ale cri(inals b+t also tho+sands of single) teenage (others1for (an& of the aborted bab& girls wo+ld ha%e been the children (ost likel& to re*licate their own (others' tendencies. To disco%er that abortion was one of the greatest cri(e2lowering factors in A(erican histor& is) needless to sa&) Earring. It feels less Darwinian than $wiftian< it calls to (ind a long ago dart attrib+ted to :. 9. !hesterton" when there aren't eno+gh hats to go aro+nd) the *roble( isn't sol%ed b& lo**ing off so(e heads. The cri(e dro* was) in the lang+age of econo(ists) an .+nintended benefit0 of legaliCed abortion. 6+t one need not o**ose abortion on (oral or religio+s gro+nds to feel shaken b& the notion of a *ri%ate sadness being con%erted into a *+blic good. Indeed) there are *lent& of *eo*le who consider abortion itself to be a %iolent cri(e. One legal scholar called legaliCed abortion worse than either sla%er& Fsince it ro+tinel& in%ol%es deathG or the #oloca+st Fsince the n+(ber of *ost2Roe abortions in the nited $tates) ro+ghl& thirt&2 se%en (illion as of 8BB?) o+tn+(ber the si/ (illion 5ews killed in E+ro*eG. ,hether or not one feels so strongl& abo+t abortion) it re(ains a sing+larl& charged iss+e. Anthon& >. 6o+Ca) a for(er to* *olice official in both the 6ron/ and 7innea*olis) disco%ered this when he ran for 7innesota go%ernor in 4@@?. A few &ears earlier) 6o+Ca had written a book in which he called abortion .arg+abl& the onl& effecti%e cri(e2*re%ention de%ice ado*ted in this nation since the late 4@ABs.0

,hen 6o+Ca's o*inion was *+bliciCed E+st before the election) he fell shar*l& in the *olls. And then he lost. #owe%er a *erson feels abo+t abortion) a =+estion is likel& to co(e to (ind" what are we to (ake of the trade2off of (ore abortion for less cri(e3 Is it e%en *ossible to *+t a n+(ber on s+ch a co(*licated transaction3 As it ha**ens) econo(ists ha%e a c+rio+s habit of affi/ing n+(bers to co(*licated transactions. !onsider the effort to sa%e the northern s*otted owl fro( e/tinction. One econo(ic st+d& fo+nd that in order to *rotect ro+ghl& fi%e tho+sand owls) the o**ort+nit& costs1that is) the inco(e s+rrendered b& the logging ind+str& and others1wo+ld be I?A billion) or E+st o%er I@ (illion *er owl. After the E//on >aldeC oil s*ill in 4@M@) another st+d& esti(ated the a(o+nt that the t&*ical A(erican ho+sehold wo+ld be willing to *a& to a%oid another s+ch disaster" I;4. An econo(ist can affi/ a %al+e e%en to a *artic+lar bod& *art. !onsider the sched+le that the state of !onnectic+t +ses to co(*ensate for work2related inE+ries.

LO$T OR DA7A:ED 6ODY PART Hinger FfirstG Hinger FsecondG Hinger FthirdG Hinger Ffo+rthG Th+(b F(aster handG Th+(b Fother handG

!O7PEN$ATED ,EE9$ OH PAY ;A 8@ 84 4K A; D?

#and F(asterG #and FotherG Ar( F(asterG Ar( FotherG Toe FgreatG Toe Fan& otherG Hoot Nose E&e 9idne& Li%er Pancreas #eart 7a((ar& O%ar& Testis Penis >agina

4AM 4DD 8BM 4@? 8M @ 48D ;D 4DK 44K ;?K ?4A D8B ;D ;D ;D ;DN4B? ;DN4B?

Now) for the sake of arg+(ent) let's ask an o+trageo+s =+estion" what is the relati%e %al+e between a fet+s and a newborn3 If faced with the $olo(onic task of sacrificing the life of one newborn for an indeter(inate n+(ber of fet+ses) what n+(ber (ight &o+ choose3

This is nothing b+t a tho+ght e/ercise1ob%io+sl& there is no right answer1b+t it (a& hel* clarif& the i(*act of abortion on cri(e. Hor a *erson who is either resol+tel& *ro2life or resol+tel& *ro2choice) this is a si(*le calc+lation. The first) belie%ing that life begins at conce*tion) wo+ld likel& consider the %al+e of a newborn %ers+s the %al+e of a fet+s to be 4"4. The second *erson) belie%ing that a wo(an's right to an abortion tr+(*s an& other factor) wo+ld likel& arg+e that no n+(ber of fet+ses can e=+al e%en one newborn. 6+t let's consider a third *erson. FIf &o+ identif& strongl& with either *erson n+(ber one or *erson n+(ber two) the following e/ercise (ight strike &o+ as offensi%e) and &o+ (a& want to ski* this *aragra*h and the ne/t.G This third *erson does not belie%e that a fet+s is the 4"4 e=+i%alent of a newborn) &et neither does he belie%e that a fet+s has no relati%e %al+e. Let's sa& that he is forced) for the sake of arg+(ent) to affi/ a relati%e %al+e) and he decides that 4 newborn is worth 4BB fet+ses. There are ro+ghl& 4.D (illion abortions in the nited $tates e%er& &ear.

Hor a *erson who belie%es that 4 newborn is worth 4BB fet+ses) those 4.D (illion abortions wo+ld translate1di%iding 4.D (illion b& 4BB1into the e=+i%alent of a loss of 4D)BBB h+(an li%es. Hifteen tho+sand li%es" that ha**ens to be abo+t the sa(e n+(ber of *eo*le who die in ho(icides in the nited $tates e%er& &ear. And it is far (ore than the n+(ber of ho(icides eli(inated each &ear d+e to legaliCed abortion. $o e%en for so(eone who considers a fet+s to be worth onl& one one2 h+ndredth of a h+(an being) the trade2off between higher abortion and lower cri(e is) b& an econo(ist's reckoning) terribl& inefficient. ,hat the link between abortion and cri(e does sa& is this" when the go%ern(ent gi%es a wo(an the o**ort+nit& to (ake her own decision

abo+t abortion) she generall& does a good Eob of fig+ring o+t if she is in a *osition to raise the bab& well. If she decides she can't) she often chooses the abortion. 6+t once a wo(an decides she will ha%e her bab&) a *ressing =+estion arises" what are *arents s+**osed to do once a child is born3 Le%itt fo+nd that the s+**ort at the ni%ersit& of !hicago went be&ond

the scholarl&. The &ear after he was hired) his wife ga%e birth to their first child) Andrew. One da&) E+st after Andrew t+rned a &ear old) he ca(e down with a slight fe%er. The doctor diagnosed an ear infection. ,hen he started %o(iting the ne/t (orning) his *arents took hi( to the hos*ital. 6& the following da& he was dead of *ne+(ococcal (eningitis. A(idst the shock and grief) Le%itt had an +ndergrad+ate class that needed teaching. It was :ar& 6ecker1a Nobel la+reate nearing his se%entieth birthda&1who sat in for hi(. Another colleag+e) D. :ale 5ohnson) sent a condolence card that so (o%ed Le%itt that he can still cite it fro( (e(or&. Le%itt and 5ohnson) an agric+lt+ral econo(ist in his eighties) began talking reg+larl&. Le%itt learned that 5ohnson's da+ghter was one of the first A(ericans to ado*t a da+ghter fro( !hina. $oon the Le%itts began *roceedings to do the sa(e) a girl the& na(ed A(anda. In addition to A(anda) the& ha%e since had a da+ghter) now three) and a son) nearl& one &ear old. 6+t Andrew's death has *la&ed on) in %ario+s wa&s. The Le%itts ha%e beco(e close friends with the fa(il& of the little girl to who( the& donated Andrew's li%er. FThe& also donated his heart) b+t that bab& died.G And) not s+r*risingl& for a scholar who *+rs+es real2 life s+bEects) the death also infor(ed Le%itt's work.

#e and 5eannette had Eoined a s+**ort gro+* for grie%ing *arents. Le%itt was str+ck b& how (an& children had drowned in swi((ing *ools. The& were the kind of deaths that don't (ake the news*a*er1 +nlike) for instance) a child who dies while *la&ing with a g+n. Le%itt got c+rio+s) and went looking for n+(bers that wo+ld tell the stor&. #e wrote +* the res+lts as an O*Ed for the !hicago $+n2Ti(es. It feat+red the sort of *langent co+nterint+ition for which he has beco(e fa(o+s" .If &o+ both own a g+n and ha%e a swi((ing *ool in the back&ard) the swi((ing *ool is abo+t 4BB ti(es (ore likel& to kill a child than the g+n is.0 1T#E N E, Y OR9 T I7E$ 7 A:AJINE) A : $T ;) 8BB;

.h$t M$2es $ )erfect )$rent/

#as there e%er been another art so de%o+tl& con%erted into a science as the art of *arenting3 O%er the recent decades) a %ast and di%erse flock of *arenting e/*erts has arisen. An&one who tries e%en cas+all& to follow their ad%ice (a& be st&(ied) for the con%entional wisdo( on *arenting see(s to shift b& the ho+r. $o(eti(es it is a case of one e/*ert differing fro( another. At other ti(es the (ost %ocal e/*erts s+ddenl& agree en (asse that the old wisdo( was wrong and that the new wisdo( is) for a little while at least) irref+tabl& right. 6reast feeding) for e/a(*le) is the onl& wa& to g+arantee a health& and intellect+all& ad%anced child 1+nless bottle feeding is the answer. A bab& sho+ld alwa&s be *+t to slee* on her back1+ntil it is decreed that she sho+ld onl& be *+t to slee* on her sto(ach. Eating li%er is either aG to/ic or bG i(*erati%e for

brain de%elo*(ent. $*are the rod and s*oil the child< s*ank the child and go to Eail. In her book Raising A(erica" E/*erts) Parents) and a !ent+r& of Ad%ice Abo+t !hildren) Ann #+lbert doc+(ented how *arenting e/*erts contradict one another and e%en the(sel%es. Their banter (ight be hilario+s were it not so confo+nding and) often) scar&. :ar& ECCo) who in the 6ab&wise book series endorses an .infant2(anage(ent strateg&0 for (o(s and dads tr&ing to .achie%e e/cellence in *arenting)0 stresses how i(*ortant it is to train a bab&) earl& on) to slee* alone thro+gh the night. Otherwise) ECCo warns) slee* de*ri%ation (ight .negati%el& i(*act an infant's de%elo*ing central ner%o+s s&ste(0 and lead to learning disabilities. Ad%ocates of .co2 slee*ing)0 (eanwhile) warn that slee*ing alone is har(f+l to a bab&'s *s&che and that he sho+ld be bro+ght into the .fa(il& bed.0 ,hat abo+t sti(+lation3 In 4@M; T. 6err& 6raCelton wrote that a bab& arri%es in the world .bea+tif+ll& *re*ared for the role of learning abo+t hi(2or herself and the world all aro+nd.0 6raCelton fa%ored earl&) ardent sti(+lation1an .interacti%e0 child. One h+ndred &ears earlier) howe%er) L. E((ett #olt ca+tioned that a bab& is not a .*la&thing.0 There sho+ld be .no forcing) no *ress+re) no +nd+e sti(+lation0 d+ring the first two &ears of a child's life) #olt belie%ed< the brain is growing so (+ch d+ring that ti(e that o%ersti(+lation (ight ca+se .a great deal of har(.0 #e also belie%ed that a cr&ing bab& sho+ld ne%er be *icked +* +nless it is in *ain. As #olt e/*lained) a bab& sho+ld be left to cr& for fifteen to thirt& (in+tes a da&" .It is the bab&'s e/ercise.0 The t&*ical *arenting e/*ert) like e/*erts in other fields) is *rone to so+nd e/ceedingl& s+re of hi(self. An e/*ert doesn't so (+ch arg+e the %ario+s sides of an iss+e as *lant his flag fir(l& on one side. That's beca+se an e/*ert whose arg+(ent reeks of restraint or n+ance often

doesn't get (+ch attention. An e/*ert (+st be bold if he ho*es to alche(iCe his ho(es*+n theor& into con%entional wisdo(. #is best chance of doing so is to engage the *+blic's e(otions) for e(otion is the ene(& of rational arg+(ent. And as e(otions go) one of the(1 fear1is (ore *otent than the rest. The s+*er*redator) Ira=i wea*ons of (ass destr+ction) (ad2cow disease) crib death" how can we fail to heed the e/*ert's ad%ice on these horrors when) like that (ean +ncle telling too2scar& stories to too2&o+ng children) he has red+ced +s to =+i%ers3 No one is (ore s+sce*tible to an e/*ert's fear(ongering than a *arent. Hear is in fact a (aEor co(*onent of the act of *arenting. A *arent) after all) is the steward of another creat+re's life) a creat+re who in the beginning is (ore hel*less than the newborn of nearl& an& other s*ecies. This leads a lot of *arents to s*end a lot of their *arenting energ& si(*l& being scared. The *roble( is that the& are often scared of the wrong things. It's not their fa+lt) reall&. $e*arating facts fro( r+(ors is alwa&s hard work) es*eciall& for a b+s& *arent. And the white noise generated b& the e/*erts1to sa& nothing of the *ress+re e/erted b& fellow *arents1is so o%erwhel(ing that the& can barel& think for the(sel%es. The facts the& do (anage to glean ha%e +s+all& been %arnished or e/aggerated or otherwise taken o+t of conte/t to ser%e an agenda that isn't their own. !onsider the *arents of an eight2&ear2old girl na(ed) sa&) 7oll&. #er two best friends) A(& and I(ani) each li%e nearb&. 7oll&'s *arents know that A(&'s *arents kee* a g+n in their ho+se) so the& ha%e forbidden 7oll& to *la& there. Instead) 7oll& s*ends a lot of ti(e at I(ani's ho+se) which has a swi((ing *ool in the back&ard. 7oll&'s

*arents feel good abo+t ha%ing (ade s+ch a s(art choice to *rotect their da+ghter. 6+t according to the data) their choice isn't s(art at all. In a gi%en &ear) there is one drowning of a child for e%er& 44)BBB residential *ools in the nited $tates. FIn a co+ntr& with A (illion *ools) this (eans that ro+ghl& DDB children +nder the age of ten drown each &ear.G 7eanwhile) there is 4 child killed b& a g+n for e%er& 4 (illion2*l+s g+ns. FIn a co+ntr& with an esti(ated 8BB (illion g+ns) this (eans that ro+ghl& 4KD children +nder ten die each &ear fro( g+ns.G The likelihood of death b& *ool F4 in 44)BBBG %ers+s death b& g+n F4 in 4 (illion2*l+sG isn't e%en close" 7oll& is ro+ghl& 4BB ti(es (ore likel& to die in a swi((ing accident at I(ani's ho+se than in g+n*la& at A(&'s. 6+t (ost of +s are) like 7oll&'s *arents) terrible risk assessors. Peter $and(an) a self2described .risk co((+nications cons+ltant0 in Princeton) New 5erse&) (ade this *oint in earl& 8BB? after a single case of (ad2cow disease in the nited $tates *ro(*ted an antibeef frenC&. .The basic realit&)0 $and(an told the New York Ti(es) .is that the risks that scare *eo*le and the risks that kill *eo*le are %er& different.0 $and(an offered a co(*arison between (ad2cow disease Fa s+*er2 scar& b+t e/ceedingl& rare threatG and the s*read of food2borne *athogens in the a%erage ho(e kitchen Fe/ceedingl& co((on b+t so(ehow not %er& scar&G. .Risks that &o+ control are (+ch less a so+rce of o+trage than risks that are o+t of &o+r control)0 $and(an said. .In the case of (ad2cow) it feels like it's be&ond (& control. I can't tell if (& (eat has *rions in it or not. I can't see it) I can't s(ell it. ,hereas dirt in (& own kitchen is %er& (+ch in (& own control. I can clean (& s*onges. I can clean the floor.0

$and(an's .control0 *rinci*le (ight also e/*lain wh& (ost *eo*le are (ore scared of fl&ing in an air*lane than dri%ing a car. Their thinking goes like this" since I control the car) I a( the one kee*ing (&self safe< since I ha%e no control of the air*lane) I a( at the (erc& of (&riad e/ternal factors. $o which sho+ld we act+all& fear (ore) fl&ing or dri%ing3 It (ight first hel* to ask a (ore basic =+estion" what) e/actl&) are we afraid of3 Death) *res+(abl&. 6+t the fear of death needs to be narrowed down. Of co+rse we all know that we are bo+nd to die) and we (ight worr& abo+t it cas+all&. 6+t if &o+ are told that &o+ ha%e a 4B *ercent chance of d&ing within the ne/t &ear) &o+ (ight worr& a lot (ore) *erha*s e%en choosing to li%e &o+r life differentl&. And if &o+ are told that &o+ ha%e 4B *ercent chance of d&ing within the ne/t (in+te) &o+'ll *robabl& *anic. $o it's the i((inent *ossibilit& of death that dri%es the fear1which (eans that the (ost sensible wa& to calc+late fear of death wo+ld be to think abo+t it on a *er2ho+r basis. If &o+ are taking a tri* and ha%e the choice of dri%ing or fl&ing) &o+ (ight wish to consider the *er2ho+r death rate of dri%ing %ers+s fl&ing. It is tr+e that (an& (ore *eo*le die in the nited $tates each &ear in (otor %ehicle accidents Fro+ghl& fort& tho+sandG than in air*lane crashes Ffewer than one tho+sandG. 6+t it's also tr+e that (ost *eo*le s*end a lot (ore ti(e in cars than in air*lanes. F7ore *eo*le die e%en in boating accidents each &ear than in air*lane crashes< as we saw with swi((ing *ools %ers+s g+ns) water is a lot (ore dangero+s than (ost *eo*le think.G The *er2ho+r death rate of dri%ing %ers+s fl&ing) howe%er) is abo+t e=+al. The two contra*tions are e=+all& likel& For) in tr+th) +nlikel&G to lead to death.

6+t fear best thri%es in the *resent tense. That is wh& e/*erts rel& on it< in a world that is increasingl& i(*atient with long2ter( *rocesses) fear is a *otent short2ter( *la&. I(agine that &o+ are a go%ern(ent official charged with *roc+ring the f+nds to fight one of two *ro%en killers" terrorist attacks and heart disease. ,hich ca+se do &o+ think the (e(bers of !ongress will o*en +* the coffers for3 The likelihood of an& gi%en *erson being killed in a terrorist attack are infinitesi(all& s(aller than the likelihood that the sa(e *erson will clog +* his arteries with fatt& food and die of heart disease. 6+t a terrorist attack ha**ens now< death b& heart disease is so(e distant) =+iet catastro*he. Terrorist acts lie be&ond o+r control< french fries do not. 5+st as i(*ortant as the control factor is what Peter $and(an calls the dread factor. Death b& terrorist attack For (ad2cow diseaseG is considered wholl& dreadf+l< death b& heart disease is) for so(e reason) not. $and(an is an e/*ert who works both sides of the aisle. One da& he (ight hel* a gro+* of en%iron(entalists e/*ose a *+blic health haCard. #is client the ne/t da& co+ld be a fast2food !EO tr&ing to deal with an E. coli o+tbreak. $and(an has red+ced his e/*ertise to a tid& e=+ation" Risk X haCard Y o+trage. Hor the !EO with the bad ha(b+rger (eat) $and(an engages in .o+trage red+ction0< for the en%iron(entalists) it's .o+trage increase.0 Note that $and(an addresses the o+trage b+t not the haCard itself. #e concedes that o+trage and haCard do not carr& e=+al weight in his risk e=+ation. .,hen haCard is high and o+trage is low) *eo*le +nderreact)0 he sa&s. .And when haCard is low and o+trage is high) the& o%erreact.0 $o wh& is a swi((ing *ool less frightening than a g+n3 The tho+ght of a child being shot thro+gh the chest with a neighbor's g+n is

gr+eso(e) dra(atic) horrif&ing1in a word) o+trageo+s. $wi((ing *ools do not ins*ire o+trage. This is d+e in *art to the fa(iliarit& factor. 5+st as (ost *eo*le s*end (ore ti(e in cars than in air*lanes) (ost of +s ha%e a lot (ore e/*erience swi((ing in *ools than shooting g+ns. 6+t it takes onl& abo+t thirt& seconds for a child to drown) and it often ha**ens noiselessl&. An infant can drown in water as shallow as a few inches. The ste*s to *re%ent drowning) (eanwhile) are *rett& straightforward" a watchf+l ad+lt) a fence aro+nd the *ool) a locked back door so a toddler doesn't sli* o+tside +nnoticed. If e%er& *arent followed these *reca+tions) the li%es of *erha*s fo+r h+ndred &o+ng children co+ld be sa%ed each &ear. That wo+ld o+tn+(ber the li%es sa%ed b& two of the (ost widel& *ro(oted in%entions in recent (e(or&" safer cribs and child car seats. The data show that car seats are) at best) no(inall& hel*f+l. It is certainl& safer to kee* a child in the rear seat than sitting on a la* in the front seat) where in the e%ent of an accident he essentiall& beco(es a *roEectile. 6+t the safet& to be gained here is fro( *re%enting the kids fro( riding shotg+n) not fro( stra**ing the( into a I8BB car seat. Ne%ertheless) (an& *arents so (agnif& the benefit of a car seat that the& trek to the local *olice station or fireho+se to ha%e it installed E+st right. Theirs is a gest+re of lo%e) s+rel&) b+t also a gest+re of what (ight be called obsessi%e *arenting. FObsessi%e *arents know who the& are and are generall& *ro+d of the fact< non2obsessi%e *arents also know who the obsessi%es are and tend to snicker at the(.G 7ost inno%ations in the field of child safet& are affiliated with1shock of shocks1a new *rod+ct to be (arketed. FNearl& fi%e (illion car seats are sold each &ear.G These *rod+cts are often a res*onse to so(e growing scare in which) as Peter $and(an (ight *+t it) the o+trage o+tweighs the haCard. !o(*are the fo+r h+ndred li%es that a few

swi((ing *ool *reca+tions (ight sa%e to the n+(ber of li%es sa%ed b& far noisier cr+sades" child2resistant *ackaging Fan esti(ated fift& li%es a &earG) fla(e2retardant *aEa(as Ften li%esG) kee*ing children awa& fro( airbags in cars Ffewer than fi%e &o+ng children a &ear ha%e been killed b& airbags since their introd+ctionG) and safet& draw2strings on children's clothing Ftwo li%esG. #old on a (in+te) &o+ sa&. ,hat does it (atter if *arents are (ani*+lated b& e/*erts and (arketers3 $ho+ldn't we a**la+d an& effort) regardless of how (inor or (ani*+lati%e) that (akes e%en one child safer3 Don't *arents alread& ha%e eno+gh to worr& abo+t3 After all) *arents are res*onsible for one of the (ost aweso(el& i(*ortant feats we know" the %er& sha*ing of a child's character. Aren't the&3 The (ost radical shift of late in the con%entional wisdo( on *arenting has been *ro%oked b& one si(*le =+estion" how (+ch do *arents reall& (atter3 !learl&) bad *arenting (atters a great deal. As the link between abortion and cri(e (akes clear) +nwanted children1who are dis*ro*ortionatel& s+bEect to neglect and ab+se1ha%e worse o+tco(es than children who were eagerl& welco(ed b& their *arents. 6+t how (+ch can those eager *arents act+all& acco(*lish for their children's sake3 This =+estion re*resents a crescendo of decades' worth of research. A long line of st+dies) incl+ding research into twins who were se*arated at birth) had alread& concl+ded that genes alone are res*onsible for *erha*s DB *ercent of a child's *ersonalit& and abilities. $o if nat+re acco+nts for half of a child's destin&) what acco+nts for the other half3 $+rel& it (+st be the n+rt+ring1the 6ab& 7oCart ta*es) the

ch+rch ser(ons) the (+se+( tri*s) the Hrench lessons) the bargaining and h+gging and =+arreling and *+nishing that) in toto) constit+te the act of *arenting. 6+t how then to e/*lain another fa(o+s st+d&) the !olorado Ado*tion ProEect) which followed the li%es of 8?D babies *+t +* for ado*tion and fo+nd %irt+all& no correlation between the child's *ersonalit& traits and those of his ado*ted *arents3 Or the other st+dies showing that a child's character wasn't (+ch affected whether or not he was sent to da& care) whether he had one *arent or two) whether his (other worked or didn't) whether he had two (o((ies or two daddies or one of each3 These nat+re2n+rt+re discre*ancies were addressed in a 4@@M book b& a little2known te/tbook a+thor na(ed 5+dith Rich #arris. The N+rt+re Ass+(*tion was in effect an attack on obsessi%e *arenting) a book so *ro%ocati%e that it re=+ired two s+btitles" ,h& !hildren T+rn O+t the ,a& The& Do and Parents 7atter Less than Yo+ Think and Peers 7atter 7ore. #arris arg+ed) albeit gentl&) that *arents are wrong to think the& contrib+te so (ightil& to their child's *ersonalit&. This belief) she wrote) was a .c+lt+ral (&th.0 #arris arg+ed that the to*2down infl+ence of *arents is o%erwhel(ed b& the grassroots effect of *eer *ress+re) the bl+nt force a**lied each da& b& friends and school2 (ates. The +nlikeliness of #arris's bo(bshell1she was a grand(other) no less) witho+t PhD or acade(ic affiliation1*ro(*ted both wonder and chagrin. .The *+blic (a& be forgi%en for sa&ing) R#ere we go again)'0 wrote one re%iewer. .One &ear we're told bonding is the ke&) the ne/t that it's birth order. ,ait) what reall& (atters is sti(+lation. The first fi%e &ears of life are the (ost i(*ortant< no) the first three &ears< no) it's all o%er b& the first &ear. Horget that" It's all geneticsP0

6+t #arris's theor& was d+l& endorsed b& a slate of hea%&weights. A(ong the( was $te%en Pinker) the cogniti%e *s&chologist and bestselling a+thor) who in his own book 6lank $late called #arris's %iews .(ind2boggling0 Fin a good wa&G. .Patients in traditional for(s of *s&chothera*& while awa& their fift& (in+tes reli%ing childhood con2 flicts and learning to bla(e their +nha**iness on how their *arents treated the()0 Pinker wrote. .7an& biogra*hies sca%enge thro+gh the s+bEect's childhood for the roots of the grown2+*'s tragedies and tri+(*hs. RParenting e/*erts' (ake wo(en feel like ogres if the& sli* o+t of the ho+se to work or ski* a reading of :oodnight 7oon. All these dee*l& held beliefs will ha%e to be retho+ght.0 Or will the&3 Parents (+st (atter) &o+ tell &o+rself. 6esides) e%en if *eers e/ert so (+ch infl+ence on a child) isn't it the *arents who essentiall& choose a child's *eers3 Isn't that wh& *arents agoniCe o%er the right neighborhood) the right school) the right circle of friends3 $till) the =+estion of how (+ch *arents (atter is a good one. It is also terribl& co(*licated. In deter(ining a *arent's infl+ence) which di(ension of the child are we (eas+ring" his *ersonalit&3 his school grades3 his (oral beha%ior3 his creati%e abilities3 his salar& as an ad+lt3 And what weight sho+ld we assign each of the (an& in*+ts that affect a child's o+tco(e" genes) fa(il& en%iron(ent) socioecono(ic le%el) schooling) discri(ination) l+ck) illness) and so on3 Hor the sake of arg+(ent) let's consider the stor& of two bo&s) one white and one black. The white bo& is raised in a !hicago s+b+rb b& *arents who read widel& and in%ol%e the(sel%es in school refor(. #is father) who has a decent (an+fact+ring Eob) often takes the bo& on nat+re hikes. #is (other is a ho+sewife who will e%ent+all& go back to college and earn

a bachelor's degree in ed+cation. The bo& is ha**& and *erfor(s %er& well in school. #is teachers think he (a& be a bona fide (ath geni+s. #is *arents enco+rage hi( and are terribl& *ro+d when he ski*s a grade. #e has an adoring &o+nger brother who is also %er& bright. The fa(il& e%en holds literar& salons in their ho(e. The black bo& is born in Da&tona 6each) Hlorida) and his (other abandons hi( at the age of two. #is father has a good Eob in sales b+t is a hea%& drinker. #e often beats the little bo& with the (etal end of a garden hose. One night when the bo& is ele%en) he is decorating a tableto* !hrist(as tree1the first one he has e%er had1when his father starts beating +* a lad& friend in the kitchen. #e hits her so hard that so(e teeth fl& o+t of her (o+th and land at the base of the bo&'s !hrist(as tree) b+t the bo& knows better than to s*eak +*. At school he (akes no effort whatsoe%er. 6efore long he is selling dr+gs) (+gging s+b+rbanites) carr&ing a g+n. #e (akes s+re to be aslee* b& the ti(e his father co(e ho(e fro( drinking) and to be o+t of the ho+se before his father awakes. The father e%ent+all& goes to Eail for se/+al assa+lt. 6& the age of twel%e) the bo& is essentiall& fending for hi(self. Yo+ don't ha%e to belie%e in obsessi%e *arenting to think that the second bo& doesn't stand a chance and that the first bo& has it (ade. ,hat are the odds that the second bo&) with the added handica* of racial discri(ination) will t+rn o+t to lead a *rod+cti%e life3 ,hat are the odds that the first bo&) so deftl& *ri(ed for s+ccess) will so(ehow fail3 And how (+ch of his fate sho+ld each bo& attrib+te to his *arents3 One co+ld theoriCe fore%er abo+t what (akes the *erfect *arent. Hor two reasons) the a+thors of this book will not do so. The first is that neither of +s *rofesses to be a *arenting e/*ert Faltho+gh between +s

we do ha%e si/ children +nder the age of fi%eG. The second is that we are less *ers+aded b& *arenting theor& than b& what the data ha%e to sa&. !ertain facets of a child's o+tco(e1*ersonalit&) for instance) or creati%it&1are not easil& (eas+red b& data. 6+t school *erfor(ance is. And since (ost *arents wo+ld agree that ed+cation lies at the core of a child's for(ation) it wo+ld (ake sense to begin b& e/a(ining a telling set of school data. These data concern school choice) an iss+e that (ost *eo*le feel strongl& abo+t in one direction or another. Tr+e belie%ers of school choice arg+e that their ta/ dollars b+& the( the right to send their children to the best school *ossible. !ritics worr& that school choice will lea%e behind the worst st+dents in the worst schools. $till) E+st abo+t e%er& *arent see(s to belie%e that her child will thri%e if onl& he can attend the right school) the one with an a**ro*riate blend of acade(ics) e/trac+rric+lars) friendliness) and safet&. $chool choice ca(e earl& to the !hicago P+blic $chool s&ste(. That's beca+se the !P$) like (ost +rban school districts) had a .$. dis*ro*ortionate n+(ber of (inorit& st+dents. Des*ite the

$+*re(e !o+rt's 4@D? r+ling in 6rown %. 6oard of Ed+cation of To*eka) which dictated that schools be desegregated) (an& black !P$ st+dents contin+ed to attend schools that were nearl& all2black. $o in 4@MB the .$. De*art(ent of 5+stice and the !hicago 6oard of Ed+cation tea(ed +* to tr& to better integrate the cit&'s schools. It was decreed that inco(ing fresh(en co+ld a**l& to %irt+all& an& high school in the district. Aside fro( its longe%it&) there are se%eral reasons the !P$ school2 choice *rogra( is a good one to st+d&. It offers a h+ge data set1

!hicago has the third2largest school s&ste( in the co+ntr&) after New York and Los Angeles1as well as an enor(o+s a(o+nt of choice F(ore than si/t& high schoolsG and fle/ibilit&. Its take2+* rates are accordingl& %er& high) with ro+ghl& half of the !P$ st+dents o*ting o+t of their neighborhood school. 6+t the (ost serendi*ito+s as*ect of the !P$ *rogra(1for the sake of a st+d&) at least1is how the school2choice ga(e was *la&ed. As (ight be e/*ected) throwing o*en the doors of an& school to e%er& fresh(an in !hicago threatened to create bedla(. The schools with good test scores and high grad+ation rates wo+ld be rabidl& o%ers+bscribed) (aking it i(*ossible to satisf& e%er& st+dent's re=+est. In the interest of fairness) the !P$ resorted to a lotter&. Hor a researcher) this is a re(arkable boon. A beha%ioral scientist co+ld hardl& design a better e/*eri(ent in his laborator&. 5+st as the scientist (ight rando(l& assign one (o+se to a treat(ent gro+* and another to a control gro+*) the !hicago school board effecti%el& did the sa(e. I(agine two st+dents) statisticall& identical) each of who( wants to attend a new) better school. Thanks to how the ball bo+nces in the ho**er) one goes to the new school and the other sta&s behind. Now i(agine (+lti*l&ing those st+dents b& the tho+sands. The res+lt is a nat+ral e/*eri(ent on a grand scale. This was hardl& the goal in the (ind of the !hicago school officials who concei%ed the lotter&. 6+t when %iewed in this wa&) the lotter& offers a wonderf+l (eans of (eas+ring E+st how (+ch school choice1or) reall&) a better school1 tr+l& (atters. $o what do the data re%eal3

The answer will not be heartening to obsessi%e *arents" in this case) school choice barel& (attered at all. It is tr+e that the !hicago st+dents who entered the school2choice lotter& were (ore likel& to grad+ate than the st+dents who didn't1which see(s to s+ggest that school choice does (ake a difference. 6+t that's an ill+sion. The *roof is in this co(*arison" the st+dents who won the lotter& and went to a .better0 school did no better than e=+i%alent st+dents who lost the lotter& and were left behind. That is) a st+dent who o*ted o+t of his neighborhood school was (ore likel& to grad+ate whether or not he act+all& won the o**ort+nit& to go to a new school. ,hat a**ears to be an ad%antage gained b& going to a new school isn't connected to the new school at all. ,hat this (eans is that the st+dents1and *arents1 who choose to o*t o+t tend to be s(arter and (ore acade(icall& (oti%ated to begin with. 6+t statisticall&) the& gained no acade(ic benefit b& changing schools. And is it tr+e that the st+dents left behind in neighborhood schools s+ffered3 No" the& contin+ed to test at abo+t the sa(e le%els as before the s+**osed brain drain. There was) howe%er) one gro+* of st+dents in !hicago who did see a dra(atic change" those who entered a technical school or career acade(&. These st+dents *erfor(ed s+bstantiall& better than the& did in their old acade(ic settings and grad+ated at a (+ch higher rate than their *ast *erfor(ance wo+ld ha%e *redicted. $o the !P$ school2 choice *rogra( did hel* *re*are a s(all seg(ent of otherwise str+ggling st+dents for solid careers b& gi%ing the( *ractical skills. 6+t it doesn't a**ear that it (ade an&one (+ch s(arter. !o+ld it reall& be that school choice doesn't (+ch (atter3 No self2 res*ecting *arent) obsessi%e or otherwise) is read& to belie%e that. 6+t wait" (a&be it's beca+se the !P$ st+d& (eas+res high2school

st+dents< (a&be b& then the die has alread& been cast. .There are too (an& st+dents who arri%e at high school not *re*ared to do high school work)0 Richard P. 7ills) the ed+cation co((issioner of New York $tate) noted recentl&) .too (an& st+dents who arri%e at high school reading) writing) and doing (ath at the ele(entar& le%el. ,e ha%e to correct the *roble( in the earlier grades.0 Indeed) acade(ic st+dies ha%e s+bstantiated 7ills's an/iet&. In e/a(ining the inco(e ga* between black and white ad+lts1it is well established that blacks earn significantl& less1scholars ha%e fo+nd that the ga* is %irt+all& eradicated if the blacks' lower eighth2grade test scores are taken into acco+nt. In other words) the black2white inco(e ga* is largel& a *rod+ct of a black2white ed+cation ga* that co+ld ha%e been obser%ed (an& &ears earlier. .Red+cing the black2 white test score ga*)0 wrote the a+thors of one st+d&) .wo+ld do (ore to *ro(ote racial e=+alit& than an& other strateg& that co((ands broad *olitical s+**ort.0 $o where does that black2white test ga* co(e fro(3 7an& theories ha%e been *+t forth o%er the &ears" *o%ert&) genetic (ake+*) the .s+((er setback0 *heno(enon Fblacks are tho+ght to lose (ore gro+nd than whites when school is o+t of sessionG) racial bias in testing or in teachers' *erce*tions) and a black backlash against .acting white.0 In a *a*er called .The Econo(ics of RActing ,hite)'0 the &o+ng black #ar%ard econo(ist Roland :. Hr&er 5r. arg+es that so(e black st+dents .ha%e tre(endo+s disincenti%es to in%est in *artic+lar beha%iors Fi.e.) ed+cation) ballet) etc.G d+e to the fact that the& (a& be dee(ed a *erson who is tr&ing to act like a white *erson Fa.k.a. Rselling2o+t'G. $+ch a label) in so(e neighborhoods) can carr& *enalties that range fro( being dee(ed a social o+tcast) to being beaten or killed.0 Hr&er

cites the recollections of a &o+ng 9aree( Abd+l25abbar) known then as Lew Alcindor) who had E+st entered the fo+rth grade in a new school and disco%ered that he was a better reader than e%en the se%enth graders" .,hen the kids fo+nd this o+t) I beca(e a target-. It was (& first ti(e awa& fro( ho(e) (& first e/*erience in an all2black sit+ation) and I fo+nd (&self being *+nished for e%er&thing I'd e%er been ta+ght was right. I got all A's and was hated for it< I s*oke correctl& and was called a *+nk. I had to learn a new lang+age si(*l& to be able to deal with the threats. I had good (anners and was a good little bo& and *aid for it with (& hide.0 Hr&er is also one of the a+thors of . nderstanding the 6lack2,hite Test $core :a* in the Hirst Two Years of $chool.0 This *a*er takes ad%antage of a new tro%e of go%ern(ent data that hel*s reliabl& address the black2white ga*. Perha*s (ore interestingl&) the data do a nice Eob of answering the =+estion that e%er& *arent1black) white) and otherwise1wants to ask" what are the factors that do and do not affect a child's *erfor(ance in school3

In the late 4@@Bs) the

.$. De*art(ent of Ed+cation +ndertook a

(on+(ental *roEect called the Earl& !hildhood Longit+dinal $t+d&. The E!L$ so+ght to (eas+re the acade(ic *rogress of (ore than twent& tho+sand children fro( kindergarten thro+gh the fifth grade. The s+bEects were chosen fro( across the co+ntr& to re*resent an acc+rate cross section of A(erican schoolchildren. The E!L$ (eas+red the st+dents' acade(ic *erfor(ance and gathered t&*ical s+r%e& infor(ation abo+t each child" his race) gender) fa(il& str+ct+re) socioecono(ic stat+s) the le%el of his *arents' ed+cation) and so on. 6+t the st+d& went well be&ond these basics. It also

incl+ded inter%iews with the st+dents' *arents Fand teachers and school ad(inistratorsG) *osing a long list of =+estions (ore inti(ate than those in the t&*ical go%ern(ent inter%iew" whether the *arents s*anked their children) and how often< whether the& took the( to libraries or (+se+(s< how (+ch tele%ision the children watched. The res+lt is an incredibl& rich set of data1which) if the right =+estions are asked of it) tells so(e s+r*rising stories. #ow can this t&*e of data be (ade to tell a reliable stor&3 6& s+bEecting it to the econo(ist's fa%orite trick" regression anal&sis. No) regression anal&sis is not so(e forgotten for( of *s&chiatric treat(ent. It is a *owerf+l1if li(ited1tool that +ses statistical techni=+es to identif& otherwise el+si%e correlations. !orrelation is nothing (ore than a statistical ter( that indicates whether two %ariables (o%e together. It tends to be cold o+tside when it snows< those two factors are *ositi%el& correlated. $+nshine and rain) (eanwhile) are negati%el& correlated. Eas& eno+gh1as long as there are onl& a co+*le of %ariables. 6+t with a co+*le of h+ndred %ariables) things get harder. Regression anal&sis is the tool that enables an econo(ist to sort o+t these h+ge *iles of data. It does so b& artificiall& holding constant e%er& %ariable e/ce*t the two he wishes to foc+s on) and then showing how those two co2%ar&. In a *erfect world) an econo(ist co+ld r+n a controlled e/*eri(ent E+st like a *h&sicist or a biologist does" setting +* two sa(*les) rando(l& (ani*+lating one of the() and (eas+ring the effect. 6+t an econo(ist rarel& has the l+/+r& of s+ch *+re e/*eri(entation. FThat's wh& the school2choice lotter& in !hicago was s+ch a ha**& accident.G ,hat an econo(ist t&*icall& has is a data set with a great (an& %ariables) none of the( rando(l& generated) so(e related and others not. Hro( this

E+(ble) he (+st deter(ine which factors are correlated and which are not. In the case of the E!L$ data) it (ight hel* to think of regression anal&sis as *erfor(ing the following task" con%erting each of those twent& tho+sand schoolchildren into a sort of circ+it board with an identical n+(ber of switches. Each switch re*resents a single categor& of the child's data" his first2grade (ath score) his third2grade (ath score) his first2grade reading score) his third2grade reading score) his (other's ed+cation le%el) his father's inco(e) the n+(ber of books in his ho(e) the relati%e affl+ence of his neighborhood) and so on. Now a researcher is able to tease so(e insights fro( this %er& co(*licated set of data. #e can line +* all the children who share (an& characteristics1all the circ+it boards that ha%e their switches fli**ed the sa(e direction1and then *in*oint the single characteristic the& don't share. This is how he isolates the tr+e i(*act of that single switch on the s*rawling circ+it board. This is how the effect of that switch1and) e%ent+all&) of e%er& switch1beco(es (anifest. Let's sa& that we want to ask the E!L$ data a f+nda(ental =+estion abo+t *arenting and ed+cation" does ha%ing a lot of books in &o+r ho(e lead &o+r child to do well in school3 Regression anal&sis can't =+ite answer that =+estion) b+t it can answer a s+btl& different one" does a child with a lot of books in his ho(e tend to do better than a child with no books3 The difference between the first and second =+estions is the difference between ca+salit& F=+estion 4G and correlation F=+estion 8G. A regression anal&sis can de(onstrate correlation) b+t it doesn't *ro%e ca+se. After all) there are se%eral wa&s in which two %ariables can be correlated. X can ca+se Y< Y can ca+se X< or it (a& be that so(e other factor is ca+sing both X and Y. A regression alone can't tell &o+ whether it snows beca+se it's cold)

whether it's cold beca+se it snows) or if the two E+st ha**en to go together. The E!L$ data do show) for instance) that a child with a lot of books in his ho(e tends to test higher than a child with no books. $o those factors are correlated) and that's nice to know. 6+t higher test scores are correlated with (an& other factors as well. If &o+ si(*l& (eas+re children with a lot of books against children with no books) the answer (a& not be %er& (eaningf+l. Perha*s the n+(ber of books in a child's ho(e (erel& indicates how (+ch (one& his *arents (ake. ,hat we reall& want to do is (eas+re two children who are alike in e%er& wa& e/ce*t one1in this case) the n+(ber of books in his ho(e1and see if that one factor (akes a difference in his school *erfor(ance. It sho+ld be said that regression anal&sis is (ore art than science. FIn this regard) it has a great deal in co((on with *arenting itself.G 6+t a skilled *ractitioner can +se it to tell how (eaningf+l a correlation is1 and (a&be e%en tell whether that correlation does indicate a ca+sal relationshi*. $o what does an anal&sis of the E!L$ data tell +s abo+t school2 children's *erfor(ance3 A n+(ber of things. The first one concerns the black2white test score ga*. It has long been obser%ed that black children) e%en before the& set foot in a classroo() +nder*erfor( their white co+nter*arts. 7oreo%er) black children didn't (eas+re +* e%en when controlling for a wide arra& of %ariables. FTo control for a %ariable is essentiall& to eli(inate its infl+ence) (+ch as one golfer +ses a handica* against another. In the case of an acade(ic st+d& s+ch as the E!L$) a researcher (ight control for an& n+(ber of disad%antages that one st+dent (ight carr& when (eas+red against the a%erage st+dent.G 6+t this new data set

tells a different stor&. After controlling for E+st a few %ariables1 incl+ding the inco(e and ed+cation le%el of the child's *arents and the (other's age at the birth of her first child1the ga* between black and white children is %irt+all& eli(inated at the ti(e the children enter school. This is an enco+raging finding on two fronts. It (eans that &o+ng black children ha%e contin+ed to (ake gains relati%e to their white co+nter*arts. It also (eans that whate%er ga* re(ains can be linked to a handf+l of readil& identifiable factors. The data re%eal that black children who *erfor( *oorl& in school do so not beca+se the& are black b+t beca+se the& tend to co(e fro( low2inco(e) low2ed+cation ho+seholds. A t&*ical black child and white child fro( the sa(e socioecono(ic backgro+nd) howe%er) ha%e the sa(e abilities in (ath and reading +*on entering kindergarden. :reat news) right3 ,ell) not so fast. Hirst of all) beca+se the a%erage black child is (ore likel& to co(e fro( a low2inco(e) low2ed+cation ho+sehold) the ga* is %er& real" on a%erage) black children still are scoring worse. ,orse &et) e%en when the *arents' inco(e and ed+cation are controlled for) the black2white ga* rea**ears within E+st two &ears of a child's entering school. 6& the end of first grade) a black child is +nder*erfor(ing a statisticall& e=+i%alent white child. And the ga* steadil& grows o%er the second and third grades. ,h& does this ha**en3 That's a hard) co(*licated =+estion. 6+t one answer (a& lie in the fact that the school attended b& the t&*ical black child is not the sa(e school attended b& the t&*ical white child) and the t&*ical black child goes to a school that is si(*l&-bad. E%en fift& &ears after 6rown %. 6oard) (an& A(erican schools are %irt+all& segregated. The E!L$ *roEect s+r%e&ed ro+ghl& one tho+sand schools) taking sa(*les of twent& children fro( each. In ;D *ercent of those

schools) not a single black child was incl+ded in the sa(*le. The t&*ical white child in the E!L$ st+d& attends a school that is onl& A *ercent black< the t&*ical black child) (eanwhile) attends a school that is abo+t AB *ercent black. 5+st how are the black schools bad3 Not) interestingl&) in the wa&s that schools are traditionall& (eas+red. In ter(s of class siCe) teachers' ed+cation) and co(*+ter2to2st+dent ratio) the schools attended b& blacks and whites are si(ilar. 6+t the t&*ical black st+dent's school has a far higher rate of tro+bleso(e indicators) s+ch as gang *roble(s) nonst+dents loitering in front of the school) and lack of PTA f+nding. These schools offer an en%iron(ent that is si(*l& not cond+ci%e to learning. 6lack st+dents are hardl& the onl& ones who s+ffer in bad schools. ,hite children in these schools also *erfor( *oorl&. In fact) there is essentiall& no black2white test score ga* within a bad school in the earl& &ears once &o+ control for st+dents' backgro+nds. 6+t all st+dents in a bad school) black and white) do lose gro+nd to st+dents in good schools. Perha*s ed+cators and researchers are wrong to be so h+ng +* on the black2white test score ga*< the bad2schoolLgood2school ga* (a& be the (ore salient iss+e. !onsider this fact" the E!L$ data re%eal that black st+dents in good schools don't lose gro+nd to their white co+nter*arts) and black st+dents in good schools o+t*erfor( whites in *oor schools. $o according to these data) a child's school does see( to ha%e a clear i(*act on his acade(ic *rogress. !an the sa(e be said for *arenting3 Did all those 6ab& 7oCart ta*es *a& off3 ,hat abo+t those (arathon readings of :oodnight 7oon3 ,as the (o%e to the s+b+rbs worthwhile3 Do the kids with PTA *arents do better than the kids whose *arents ha%e ne%er heard of the PTA3

The wide2ranging E!L$ data offer a n+(ber of co(*elling correlations between a child's *ersonal circ+(stances and his school *erfor(ance. Hor instance) once all other factors are controlled for) it is clear that st+dents fro( r+ral areas tend to do worse than a%erage. $+b+rban children) (eanwhile) are in the (iddle of the c+r%e) while +rban children tend to score higher than a%erage. FIt (a& be that cities attract a (ore ed+cated workforce and) therefore) *arents with s(arter children.G On a%erage) girls test higher than bo&s) and Asians test higher than whites1altho+gh blacks) as we ha%e alread& established) test si(ilarl& to whites fro( co(*arable backgro+nds and in co(*arable schools. 9nowing what &o+ now know abo+t regression anal&sis) con%entional wisdo() and the art of *arenting) consider the following list of si/teen factors. According to the E!L$ data) eight of the factors show a strong correlation1*ositi%e or negati%e1with test scores. The other eight don't see( to (atter. Heel free to g+ess which are which.

The child has highl& ed+cated *arents. The child's fa(il& is intact. The child's *arents ha%e high socioecono(ic stat+s. The child's *arents recentl& (o%ed into a better neighborhood. The child's (other was thirt& or older at the ti(e of her first child's birth. The child's (other didn't work between birth and kindergarten. The child had low birthweight.

The child attended #ead $tart. The child's *arents s*eak English in the ho(e. The child's *arents reg+larl& take hi( to (+se+(s. The child is ado*ted. The child is reg+larl& s*anked. The child's *arents are in%ol%ed in the PTA. The child fre=+entl& watches tele%ision. The child has (an& books in his ho(e. The child's *arents read to hi( nearl& e%er& da&. #ere now are the eight factors that are strongl& correlated with test scores" The child has highl& ed+cated *arents. The child's *arents ha%e high socioecono(ic stat+s. The child's (other was thirt& or older at the ti(e of her first child's birth. The child had low birthweight. The child's *arents s*eak English in the ho(e. The child is ado*ted. The child's *arents are in%ol%ed in the PTA.

The child has (an& books in his ho(e.

And the eight that aren't" The child's fa(il& is intact. The child's *arents recentl& (o%ed into a better neighborhood. The child's (other didn't work between birth and kindergarten. The child attended #ead $tart. The child's *arents reg+larl& take hi( to (+se+(s. The child is reg+larl& s*anked. The child fre=+entl& watches tele%ision. The child's *arents read to hi( nearl& e%er& da&.

Now) two b& two" 7atters" The child has highl& ed+cated *arents. Doesn't" The child's fa(il& is intact.

A child whose *arents are highl& ed+cated t&*icall& does well in school< not (+ch s+r*rise there. A fa(il& with a lot of schooling tends to %al+e schooling. Perha*s (ore i(*ortant) *arents with higher IQs tend to get (ore ed+cation) and IQ is strongl& hereditar&. 6+t whether a child's fa(il& is intact doesn't see( to (atter. 5+st as the earlier2cited st+dies show that fa(il& str+ct+re has little i(*act on a child's *ersonalit&) it does not see( to affect his acade(ic abilities either. This is not to sa& that fa(ilies o+ght to go aro+nd s*litting +* will&2nill&. It sho+ld)

howe%er) offer enco+rage(ent to the ro+ghl& twent& (illion A(erican schoolchildren being raised b& a single *arent. 7atters" The child's *arents ha%e high socioecono(ic stat+s. Doesn't" The child's *arents recentl& (o%ed into a better neighborhood. A high socioecono(ic stat+s is strongl& correlated to higher test scores) which see(s sensible. $ocioecono(ic stat+s is a strong indicator of s+ccess in general1it s+ggests a higher IQ and (ore ed+cation1and s+ccessf+l *arents are (ore likel& to ha%e s+ccessf+l children. 6+t (o%ing to a better neighborhood doesn't i(*ro%e a child's chances in school. It (a& be that (o%ing itself is a disr+*ti%e force< (ore likel&) it's beca+se a nicer ho+se doesn't i(*ro%e (ath or reading scores an& (ore than nicer sneakers (ake &o+ E+(* higher. 7atters" The child's (other was thirt& or older at the ti(e of her first child's birth. Doesn't" The child's (other didn't work between birth and kindergarten. A wo(an who doesn't ha%e her first child +ntil she is at least thirt& is likel& to see that child do well in school. This (other tends to be a wo(an who wanted to get so(e ad%anced ed+cation or de%elo* traction in her career. $he is also likel& to want a child (ore than a teenage (other wants a child. This doesn't (ean that an older first2 ti(e (other is necessaril& a better (other) b+t she has *+t herself1 and her children1in a (ore ad%antageo+s *osition. FIt is worth noting that this ad%antage is none/istent for a teenage (other who waits +ntil she is thirt& to ha%e her second child. The E!L$ data show that her second child will *erfor( no better than her first.G At the sa(e ti(e) a (other who sta&s ho(e fro( work +ntil her child goes to

kindergarten does not see( to *ro%ide an& ad%antage. Obsessi%e *arents (ight find this lack of correlation botherso(e1what was the *oint of all those 7o((& and 7e classes31b+t that is what the data tell +s. 7atters" The child had low birthweight. Doesn't" The child attended #ead $tart.

A child who had a low birthweight tends to do *oorl& in school. It (a& be that being born *re(at+rel& is si(*l& h+rtf+l to a child's o%er2all well2being. It (a& also be that low birthweight is a strong forecaster of *oor *arenting) since a (other who s(okes or drinks or otherwise (istreats her bab& in +tero isn't likel& to t+rn things aro+nd E+st beca+se the bab& is born. A low2birthweight child) in t+rn) is (ore likel& to be a *oor child1and) therefore) (ore likel& to attend #ead $tart) the federal *reschool *rogra(. 6+t according to the E!L$ data) #ead $tart does nothing for a child's f+t+re test scores. Des*ite a dee* reser%oir of a**reciation for #ead $tart Fone of this book's a+thors was a charter st+dentG) we (+st acknowledge that it has re*eatedl& been *ro%en ineffect+al. #ere's a likel& reason" instead of s*ending the da& with his own +ndered+cated) o%erworked (other) the t&*ical #ead $tart child s*ends the da& with so(eone else's +ndered+cated) o%erworked (other. FAnd a whole roo(f+l of si(ilarl& need& children.G As it ha**ens) fewer than ;B *ercent of #ead $tart teachers ha%e e%en a bachelor's degree. And the Eob *a&s so *oorl&1abo+t I84)BBB for a #ead $tart teacher %ers+s I?B)BBB for the a%erage *+blic2school kindergarten teacher1that it is +nlikel& to attract better teachers an& ti(e soon. 7atters" The child's *arents s*eak English in the ho(e. Doesn't" The child's *arents reg+larl& take hi( to (+se+(s.

A child with English2s*eaking *arents does better in school than one whose *arents don't s*eak English. Again) not (+ch of a s+r*rise. This correlation is f+rther s+**orted b& the *erfor(ance of #is*anic st+dents in the E!L$ st+d&. As a gro+*) #is*anic st+dents test *oorl&< the& are also dis*ro*ortionatel& likel& to ha%e non2English2s*eaking *arents. FThe& do) howe%er) tend to catch +* with their *eers in later grades.G $o how abo+t the o**osite case" what if a (other and father are not onl& *roficient in English b+t s*end their weekends broadening their child's c+lt+ral horiCons b& taking hi( to (+se+(s3 $orr&. !+lt+re cra((ing (a& be a fo+ndational belief of obsessi%e *arenting) b+t the E!L$ data show no correlation between (+se+( %isits and test scores. 7atters" The child is ado*ted. Doesn't" The child is reg+larl& s*anked.

There is a strong correlation1a negati%e one1between ado*tion and school test scores. ,h&3 $t+dies ha%e shown that a child's acade(ic abilities are far (ore infl+enced b& the IQs of his biological *arents than the IQs of his ado*ti%e *arents) and (others who gi%e +* their children for ado*tion tend to ha%e significantl& lower IQs than the *eo*le who are doing the ado*ting. There is another e/*lanation for low2achie%ing ado*tees which) tho+gh it (a& see( distastef+l) Eibes with the basic econo(ic theor& of self2interest" a wo(an who knows she will *+t her bab& +* for ado*tion (a& not take the sa(e *renatal care as a wo(an who is kee*ing her bab&. F!onsider1at the risk of f+rthering the distastef+l thinking1how &o+ treat a car &o+ own %ers+s a car &o+ are renting for the weekend.G 6+t if an ado*ted child is *rone to lower test scores) a s*anked child is not. This (a& see( s+r*rising1 not beca+se s*anking itself is necessaril& detri(ental b+t beca+se) con%entionall& s*eaking) s*anking is considered an +nenlightened

*ractice. ,e (ight therefore ass+(e that *arents who s*ank are +nenlightened in other wa&s. Perha*s that isn't the case at all. Or *erha*s there is a different s*anking stor& to be told. Re(e(ber) the E!L$ s+r%e& incl+ded direct inter%iews with the children's *arents. $o a *arent wo+ld ha%e to sit knee to knee with a go%ern(ent researcher and ad(it to s*anking his child. This wo+ld s+ggest that a *arent who does so is either +nenlightened or1(ore interestingl&1congenitall& honest. It (a& be that honest& is (ore i(*ortant to good *arenting than s*anking is to bad *arenting. 7atters" The child's *arents are in%ol%ed in the PTA. Doesn't" The child fre=+entl& watches tele%ision.

A child whose *arents are in%ol%ed in the PTA tends to do well in school1which *robabl& indicates that *arents with a strong relationshi* to ed+cation get in%ol%ed in the PTA) not that their PTA in%ol%e(ent so(ehow (akes their children s(arter. The E!L$ data show no correlation) (eanwhile) between a child's test scores and the a(o+nt of tele%ision he watches. Des*ite the con%entional wisdo() watching tele%ision a**arentl& does not t+rn a child's brain to (+sh. FIn Hinland) whose ed+cation s&ste( has been ranked the world's best) (ost children do not begin school +ntil age se%en b+t ha%e often learned to read on their own b& watching A(erican tele%ision with Hinnish s+btitles.G Nor) howe%er) does +sing a co(*+ter at ho(e t+rn a child into Einstein" the E!L$ data show no correlation between co(*+ter +se and school test scores. Now for the final *air of factors" 7atters" The child has (an& books in his ho(e. Doesn't" The child's *arents read to hi( nearl& e%er& da&.

As noted earlier) a child with (an& books in his ho(e has indeed been fo+nd to do well on school tests. 6+t reg+larl& reading to a child doesn't affect test scores. This wo+ld see( to *resent a riddle. It bo+nces +s back to o+r original =+estion" E+st how (+ch) and in what wa&s) do *arents reall& (atter3 Let's start with the *ositi%e correlation" books in the ho(e e=+al higher test scores. 7ost *eo*le wo+ld look at this correlation and infer an ob%io+s ca+se2and2effect relationshi*. To wit" a little bo& na(ed Isaiah has a lot of books at ho(e< Isaiah does bea+tif+ll& on his reading test at school< this (+st be beca+se his (other or father reg+larl& reads to hi(. 6+t Isaiah's friend E(il&) who also has a lot of books in her ho(e) *racticall& ne%er to+ches the(. $he wo+ld rather dress +* her 6ratC or watch cartoons. And E(il& tests E+st as well as Isaiah. 7eanwhile) Isaiah and E(il&'s friend Rick& doesn't ha%e an& books at ho(e. 6+t Rick& goes to the librar& e%er& da& with his (other< Rick& is a reading fiend. And &et he does worse on his school tests than either E(il& or Isaiah. ,hat are we to (ake of this3 If reading books doesn't ha%e an i(*act on earl& childhood test scores) co+ld it be that the books' (ere *h&sical *resence in the ho+se (akes the children s(arter3 Do books *erfor( so(e kind of (agical os(osis on a child's brain3 If so) one (ight be te(*ted to si(*l& deli%er a tr+ckload of books to e%er& ho(e that contains a *reschooler. That) in fact) is what the go%ernor of Illinois tried to do. In earl& 8BB?) :o%ernor Rod 6lagoEe%ich anno+nced a *lan to (ail one book a (onth to e%er& child in Illinois fro( the ti(e the& were born +ntil the& entered kindergarten. The *lan wo+ld cost I8A (illion a &ear. 6+t) 6lagoEe%ich arg+ed) this was a %ital inter%ention in a state where ?B

*ercent of third graders read below their grade le%el. .,hen &o+ own Zbooks[ and the&'re &o+rs)0 he said) .and the& E+st co(e as *art of &o+r life) all of that will contrib+te to a sense-that books sho+ld be *art of &o+r life.0 $o all children born in Illinois wo+ld end +* with a si/t&2%ol+(e librar& b& the ti(e the& entered school. Does this (ean the& wo+ld all *erfor( better on their reading tests3 Probabl& not. FAltho+gh we (a& ne%er know for s+re" in the end) the Illinois legislat+re reEected the book *lan.G After all) the E!L$ data don't sa& that books in the ho+se ca+se high test scores< it sa&s onl& that the two are correlated. #ow sho+ld this correlation be inter*reted3 #ere's a likel& theor&" (ost *arents who b+& a lot of children's books tend to be s(art and well ed+cated to begin with. FAnd the& *ass on their s(arts and work ethic to their kids.G Or *erha*s the& care a great deal abo+t ed+cation) and abo+t their children in general. F,hich (eans the& create an en%iron(ent that enco+rages and rewards learning.G $+ch *arents (a& belie%e1as fer%entl& as the go%ernor of Illinois belie%ed1that e%er& children's book is a talis(an that leads to +nfettered intelligence. 6+t the& are *robabl& wrong. A book is in fact less a ca+se of intelligence than an indicator. $o what does all this ha%e to sa& abo+t the i(*ortance of *arents in general3 !onsider again the eight E!L$ factors that are correlated with school test scores" The child has highl& ed+cated *arents. The child's *arents ha%e high socioecono(ic stat+s.

The child's (other was thirt& or older at the ti(e of her first child's birth.

The child had low birthweight. The child's *arents s*eak English in the ho(e. The child is ado*ted. The child's *arents are in%ol%ed in the PTA. The child has (an& books in his ho(e.

And the eight factors that are not" The child's fa(il& is intact. The child's *arents recentl& (o%ed into a better neighborhood. The child's (other didn't work between birth and kindergarten. The child attended #ead $tart. The child's *arents reg+larl& take hi( to (+se+(s. The child is reg+larl& s*anked. The child fre=+entl& watches tele%ision. The child's *arents read to hi( nearl& e%er& da&.

To o%ergeneraliCe a bit) the first list describes things that *arents are< the second list describes things that *arents do. Parents who are well

ed+cated) s+ccessf+l) and health& tend to ha%e children who test well in school< b+t it doesn't see( to (+ch (atter whether a child is trotted off to (+se+(s or s*anked or sent to #ead $tart or fre=+entl& read to or *lo**ed in front of the tele%ision. Hor *arents1and *arenting e/*erts1who are obsessed with child2 rearing techni=+e) this (a& be sobering news. The realit& is that techni=+e looks to be highl& o%errated. 6+t this is not to sa& that *arents don't (atter. Plainl& the& (atter a great deal. #ere is the con+ndr+(" b& the ti(e (ost *eo*le *ick +* a *arenting book) it is far too late. 7ost of the things that (atter were decided long ago1who &o+ are) who( &o+ (arried) what kind of life &o+ lead. If &o+ are s(art) hardworking) well ed+cated) well *aid) and (arried to so(eone e=+all& fort+nate) then &o+r children are (ore likel& to s+cceed. FNor does it h+rt) in all likelihood) to be honest) tho+ghtf+l) lo%ing) and c+rio+s abo+t the world.G 6+t it isn't so (+ch a (atter of what &o+ do as a *arent< it's who &o+ are. In this regard) an o%erbearing *arent is a lot like a *olitical candidate who belie%es that (one& wins elections) whereas in tr+th) all the (one& in the world can't get a candidate elected if the %oters don't like hi( to start with. In a *a*er titled .The Nat+re and N+rt+re of Econo(ic O+tco(es)0 the econo(ist 6r+ce $acerdote addressed the nat+re2n+rt+re debate b& taking a long2ter( =+antitati%e look at the effects of *arenting. #e +sed three ado*tion st+dies) two A(erican and one 6ritish) each of the( containing in2de*th data abo+t the ado*ted children) their ado*ti%e *arents) and their biological *arents. $acerdote fo+nd that *arents who ado*t children are t&*icall& s(arter) better ed+cated) and (ore highl& *aid than the bab&'s biological *arents. 6+t the ado*ti%e *arents' ad%antages had little bearing on the child's school *erfor(ances. As also seen in the E!L$ data) ado*ted children test

relati%el& *oorl& in school< an& infl+ence the ado*ti%e *arents (ight e/ert is see(ingl& o+tweighed b& the force of genetics. 6+t) $acerdote fo+nd) the *arents were not *owerless fore%er. 6& the ti(e the ado*ted children beca(e ad+lts) the& had %eered shar*l& fro( the destin& that IQ alone (ight ha%e *redicted. !o(*ared to si(ilar children who were not *+t +* for ado*tion) the ado*tees were far (ore likel& to attend college) to ha%e a well2*aid Eob) and to wait +ntil the& were o+t of their teens before getting (arried. It was the infl+ence of the ado*ti%e *arents) $acerdote concl+ded) that (ade the difference. Le%itt thinks he is onto so(ething with a new *a*er abo+t black na(es. #e wanted to know if so(eone with a distinctl& black na(e s+ffers an econo(ic *enalt&. #is answer1contrar& to other recent research1is no. 6+t now he has a bigger =+estion" Is black c+lt+re a ca+se of racial ine=+alit& or is it a conse=+ence3 Hor an econo(ist) e%en for Le%itt) this is new t+rf1.=+antif&ing c+lt+re)0 he calls it. As a task) he finds it thorn&) (ess&) *erha*s i(*ossible) and dee*l& tantaliCing. 1T#E N E, Y OR9 T I7E$ 7 A:AJINE) A : $T ;) 8BB;

8 )erfect )$renting9 )$rt II: or, .ould $ Rosh$nd$ & $s S1eet/

Obsessi%e or not) an& *arent wants to belie%e that she is (aking a big difference in the kind of *erson her child t+rns o+t to be. Otherwise) wh& bother3

An

Other N$me Smell

The belief in *arental *ower is (anifest in the first official act a *arent co((its" gi%ing the bab& a na(e. As an& (odern *arent knows) the bab&2na(ing ind+str& is boo(ing) as e%idenced b& a *roliferation of books) websites) and bab&2na(e cons+ltants. 7an& *arents see( to belie%e that a child cannot *ros*er +nless it is hitched to the right na(e< na(es are seen to carr& great aesthetic or e%en *redicti%e *owers. This (ight e/*lain wh&) in 4@DM) a New York !it& (an na(ed Robert Lane decided to call his bab& son ,inner. The Lanes) who li%ed in a ho+sing *roEect in #arle() alread& had se%eral children) each with a fairl& t&*ical na(e. 6+t this bo&1well) Robert Lane a**arentl& had a s*ecial feeling abo+t this one. ,inner Lane" how co+ld he fail with a na(e like that3 Three &ears later) the Lanes had another bab& bo&) their se%enth and last child. Hor reasons that no one can =+ite *in down toda&) Robert decided to na(e this bo& Loser. It doesn't a**ear that Robert was +nha**& abo+t the new bab&< he E+st see(ed to get a kick o+t of the na(e's bookend effect. Hirst a ,inner) now a Loser. 6+t if ,inner Lane co+ld hardl& be e/*ected to fail) co+ld Loser Lane *ossibl& s+cceed3 Loser Lane did in fact s+cceed. #e went to *re* school on a scholarshi*) grad+ated fro( Lafa&ette !ollege in Penns&l%ania) and Eoined the New York Police De*art(ent Fthis was his (other's longti(e wishG) where he (ade detecti%e and) e%ent+all&) sergeant. Altho+gh he ne%er hid his na(e) (an& *eo*le were +nco(fortable +sing it. .$o I ha%e a b+nch of na(es)0 he sa&s toda&) .fro( 5i((& to 5a(es to whate%er the& want to call &o+. Ti((&. 6+t the& rarel& call &o+ Loser.0 Once in a while) he said) .the& throw a Hrench twist on it" RLosier.'0 To his *olice colleag+es) he is known as Lo+.

And what of his brother with the can't2(iss na(e3 The (ost noteworth& achie%e(ent of ,inner Lane) now in his (idforties) is the sheer length of his cri(inal record" nearl& three doCen arrests for b+rglar&) do(estic %iolence) tres*assing) resisting arrest) and other (a&he(. These da&s) Loser and ,inner barel& s*eak. The father who na(ed the( is no longer ali%e. !learl& he had the right idea1that na(ing is destin&1b+t he (+st ha%e gotten the bo&s (i/ed +*. Then there is the recent case of Te(*tress) a fifteen2&ear2old girl whose (isdeeds landed her in Alban& !o+nt& Ha(il& !o+rt in New York. The E+dge) ,. Dennis D+ggan) had long taken note of the strange na(es borne b& so(e offenders. One teenage bo&) A(cher) had been na(ed for the first thing his *arents saw +*on reaching the hos*ital" the sign for Alban& 7edical !enter #os*ital E(ergenc& Roo(. 6+t D+ggan considered Te(*tress the (ost o+trageo+s na(e he had co(e across. .I sent her o+t of the co+rtroo( so I co+ld talk to her (other abo+t wh& she na(ed her da+ghter Te(*tress)0 the E+dge later recalled. .$he said she was watching The !osb& $how and liked the &o+ng actress. I told her the actress's na(e was act+all& Te(*estt 6led2soe. $he said she fo+nd that o+t later) that the& had (iss*elled the na(e. I asked her if she knew what Rte(*tress' (eant) and she said she also fo+nd that o+t at so(e later *oint. #er da+ghter was charged with +ngo%ernable beha%ior) which incl+ded bringing (en into the ho(e while the (other was at work. I asked the (other if she had e%er tho+ght the da+ghter was li%ing o+t her na(e. 7ost all of this went co(*letel& o%er her head.0

,as Te(*tress act+all& .li%ing o+t her na(e)0 as 5+dge D+ggan saw it3 Or wo+ld she ha%e wo+nd +* in tro+ble e%en if her (other had called her !hastit&3\ It isn't (+ch of a stretch to ass+(e that Te(*tress didn't ha%e ideal *arents. Not onl& was her (other willing to na(e her Te(*tress in the first *lace) b+t she wasn't s(art eno+gh to know what that word e%en (eant. Nor is it so s+r*rising) on so(e le%el) that a bo& na(ed A(cher wo+ld end +* in fa(il& co+rt. Peo*le who can't be bothered to co(e +* with a na(e for their child aren't likel& to be the best *arents either. $o does the na(e &o+ gi%e &o+r child affect his life3 Or is it &o+r life reflected in his na(e3 In either case) what kind of signal does a child's na(e send to the world1and (ost i(*ortant) does it reall& (atter3 As it ha**ens) Loser and ,inner) Te(*tress and A(cher were all black. Is this fact (erel& a c+riosit& or does it ha%e so(ething larger to sa& abo+t na(es and c+lt+re3 E%er& generation see(s to *rod+ce a few (ar=+ee acade(ics who ad%ance the thinking on black c+lt+re. Roland :. Hr&er 5r.) the &o+ng black econo(ist who anal&Ced the .acting white0 *heno(enon and the black2white test score ga*) (a& be a(ong the ne/t. #is ascension has been +nlikel&. An indifferent high2school st+dent fro( an +nstable fa(il&) he went to the ni%ersit& of Te/as at Arlington on an athletic scholarshi*. Two things ha**ened to hi( d+ring college" he =+ickl& realiCed he wo+ld ne%er (ake the NHL or the N6A< and) taking his st+dies serio+sl& for the first ti(e in his life) he fo+nd he liked the(. After grad+ate work at Penn $tate and the ni%ersit& of !hicago) he was hired as a #ar%ard *rofessor at age twent&2fi%e. #is re*+tation for candid thinking on race was alread& well established.

Hr&er's (ission is the st+d& of black +nderachie%e(ent. .One co+ld rattle off all the statistics abo+t blacks not doing so well)0 he sa&s. .Yo+ can look at the black2white differential in o+t2of2wedlock births or infant (ortalit& or life e/*ectanc&. 6lacks are the worst2*erfor(ing ethnic gro+* on $ATs. 6lacks earn less than whites. The& are still E+st not doing well) *eriod. I basicall& want to fig+re o+t where blacks went wrong) and I want to de%ote (& life to this.0 In addition to econo(ic and social dis*arit& between blacks and whites) Hr&er had beco(e intrig+ed b& the %irt+al segregation of c+lt+re. 6lacks and whites watch different tele%ision shows. F7onda& Night Hootball is the onl& show that t&*icall& a**ears on each gro+*'s to* ten list< $einfeld) one of the (ost *o*+lar sitco(s in histor&) ne%er ranked in the to* fift& a(ong blacks.G The& s(oke different cigarettes. FNew*orts enEo& a KD *ercent (arket share a(ong black teenagers %ers+s 48 *ercent a(ong whites< the white teenagers are (ainl& s(oking 7arlboros.G And black *arents gi%e their children na(es that are starkl& different fro( white children's. Hr&er ca(e to wonder" is distincti%e black c+lt+re a ca+se of the econo(ic dis*arit& between blacks and whites or (erel& a reflection of it3 As with the E!L$ st+d&) Hr&er went looking for the answer in a (o+ntain of data" birth2certificate infor(ation for e%er& child born in !alifornia since 4@A4. The data) co%ering (ore than si/teen (illion births) incl+ded standard ite(s s+ch as na(e) gender) race) birth2 weight) and the *arents' (arital stat+s) as well as (ore telling factors abo+t the *arents" their Ci* code Fwhich indicates socioecono(ic stat+s and a neighborhood's racial co(*ositionG) their (eans of *a&ing the hos*ital bill Fagain) an econo(ic indicatorG) and their le%el of ed+cation.

The !alifornia data *ro%e E+st how dissi(ilarl& black and white *arents na(e their children. ,hite and Asian2A(erican *arents) (eanwhile) gi%e their children re(arkabl& si(ilar na(es< there is so(e dis*arit& between white and #is*anic2A(erican *arents) b+t it is sli( co(*ared to the black2white na(ing ga*. The data also show the black2white ga* to be a recent *heno(enon. ntil the earl& 4@KBs) there was a great o%erla* between black and white na(es. The t&*ical bab& girl born in a black neighborhood in 4@KB was gi%en a na(e that was twice as co((on a(ong blacks than whites. 6& 4@MB she recei%ed a na(e that was twent& ti(es (ore co((on a(ong blacks. F6o&s' na(es (o%ed in the sa(e direction b+t less aggressi%el&1*robabl& beca+se *arents of all races are less ad%ent+ro+s with bo&s' na(es than girls'.G :i%en the location and ti(ing of this change1dense +rban areas where Afro2A(erican acti%is( was gathering strength1the (ost likel& ca+se of the e/*losion in distincti%el& black na(es was the 6lack Power (o%e(ent) which so+ght to accent+ate African c+lt+re and fight clai(s of black inferiorit&. If this na(ing re%ol+tion was indeed ins*ired b& 6lack Power) it wo+ld be one of the (o%e(ent's (ost end+ring re(nants. Afros toda& are rare) dashikis e%en rarer< 6lack Panther fo+nder 6obb& $eale is best known toda& for *eddling a line of barbec+e *rod+cts. A great (an& black na(es toda& are +ni=+e to blacks. 7ore than ?B *ercent of the black girls born in !alifornia in a gi%en &ear recei%e a na(e that not one of the ro+ghl& 4BB)BBB bab& white girls recei%ed that &ear. E%en (ore re(arkabl&) nearl& ;B *ercent of the black girls are gi%en a na(e that is +ni=+e a(ong e%er& bab&) white and black) born that &ear in !alifornia. FThere were also 88M babies na(ed ni=+e d+ring the 4@@Bs alone) and 4 each of neek) ne=+e) and ne==ee.G E%en a(ong %er& *o*+lar black na(es) there is little

o%erla* with whites. Of the A8A bab& girls na(ed DeEa in the 4@@Bs) D@4 were black. Of the ?D? girls na(ed Precio+s) ?;4 were black. Of the ;4M $hanices) ;4B were black. ,hat kind of *arent is (ost likel& to gi%e a child s+ch a distincti%el& black na(e3 The data offer a clear answer" an +n(arried) low2inco(e) +ndered+cated teenage (other fro( a black neighborhood who has a distincti%el& black na(e herself. In Hr&er's %iew) gi%ing a child a s+*erblack na(e is a black *arent's signal of solidarit& with the co((+nit&. .If I start na(ing (& kid 7adison)0 he sa&s) .&o+ (ight think) ROh) &o+ want to go li%e across the railroad tracks) don't &o+3'0 If black kids who st+d& calc+l+s and ballet are tho+ght to be .acting white)0 Hr&er sa&s) then (others who call their babies $hanice are si(*l& .acting black.0 The !alifornia st+d& shows that (an& white *arents send as strong a signal in the o**osite direction. 7ore than ?B *ercent of the white babies are gi%en na(es that are at least fo+r ti(es (ore co((on a(ong whites. !onsider !onnor and !od&) E(il& and Abigail. In one recent ten2&ear stretch) each of these na(es was gi%en to at least two tho+sand babies in !alifornia1fewer than 8 *ercent of the( black. $o what are the .whitest0 na(es and the .blackest0 na(es3 The Twent& .,hitest0 :irl Na(es 4. 7oll& 8. A(& ;. !laire ?. E(il& D. 9atie A. 7adeline

K. 9atel&n M. E((a @. Abigail 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. 4D. 4A. 4K. 4M. 4@. 8B. !arl& 5enna #eather 9atherine !aitlin 9aitlin #oll& Allison 9aitl&n #annah 9athr&n

The Twent& .6lackest0 :irl Na(es 4. I(ani 8. Ebon& ;. $hanice ?. Aali&ah D. Precio+s A. Nia K. DeEa M. Dia(ond @. Asia 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. Ali&ah 5ada Tierra Tiara 9iara

4D. 4A. 4K. 4M. 4@. 8B.

5aC(ine 5as(in 5aC(in 5as(ine Ale/+s Ra%en

The Twent& .,hitest0 6o& Na(es 4. 5ake 8. !onnor ;. Tanner ?. ,&att D. !od& A. D+stin K. L+ke M. 5ack @. $cott 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. 4D. 4A. 4K. 4M. 4@. 8B. Logan !ole L+cas 6radle& 5acob :arrett D&lan 7a/well 6rett #+nter !olin

The Twent& .6lackest0 6o& Na(es

4. De$hawn 8. DeAndre ;. 7ar=+is ?. Darnell D. Terrell A. 7alik K. Tre%on M. T&rone @. ,illie 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. 4D. 4A. 4K. 4M. 4@. 8B. Do(ini=+e De(etri+s Reginald 5a(al 7a+rice 5alen Dari+s Xa%ier Terrance Andre Darr&l

$o how does it (atter if &o+ ha%e a %er& white na(e or a %er& black na(e3 O%er the &ears) a series of .a+dit st+dies0 ha%e tried to (eas+re how *eo*le *ercei%e different na(es. In a t&*ical a+dit st+d&) a researcher wo+ld send two identical Fand fakeG rOs+(Os) one with a traditionall& white na(e and the other with an i((igrant or (inorit&2 so+nding na(e) to *otential e(*lo&ers. The .white0 rOs+(Os ha%e alwa&s gleaned (ore Eob inter%iews. According to s+ch a st+d&) if De$hawn ,illia(s and 5ake ,illia(s sent identical rOs+(Os to the sa(e e(*lo&er) 5ake ,illia(s wo+ld be (ore

likel& to get a callback. The i(*lication is that black2so+nding na(es carr& an econo(ic *enalt&. $+ch st+dies are tantaliCing b+t se%erel& li(ited) for the& can't e/*lain wh& De$hawn didn't get the call. ,as he reEected beca+se the e(*lo&er is a racist and is con%inced that De$hawn ,illia(s is black3 Or did he reEect hi( beca+se .De$hawn0 so+nds like so(eone fro( a low2inco(e) low2ed+cation fa(il&3 A rOs+(O is a fairl& +nde*endable set of cl+es1a recent st+d& showed that (ore than DB *ercent of the( contain lies1so .De$hawn0 (a& si(*l& signal a disad%antaged backgro+nd to an e(*lo&er who belie%es that workers fro( s+ch backgro+nds are +nde*endable. Nor do the black2white a+dit st+dies *redict what (ight ha%e ha**ened in a Eob inter%iew. ,hat if the e(*lo&er is racist) and if he +nwittingl& agreed to inter%iew a black *erson who ha**ened to ha%e a white2so+nding na(e1wo+ld he be an& (ore likel& to hire the black a**licant after (eeting face2to2face3 Or is the inter%iew a *ainf+l and disco+raging waste of ti(e for the black a**licant1that is) an econo(ic *enalt& for ha%ing a white2so+nding na(e3 Along those sa(e lines) *erha*s a black *erson with a white na(e *a&s an econo(ic *enalt& in the black co((+nit&< and what of the *otential ad%antage to be gained in the black co((+nit& b& ha%ing a distincti%el& black na(e3 6+t beca+se the a+dit st+dies can't (eas+re the act+al life o+tco(es of the fictitio+s De$hawn ,illia(s %ers+s 5ake ,illia(s) the& can't assess the broader i(*act of a distincti%el& black na(e. 7a&be De$hawn sho+ld E+st change his na(e. Peo*le do this all the ti(e) of co+rse. The clerks in New York !it&'s ci%il co+rt recentl& re*orted that na(e changes are at an all2ti(e high. $o(e of the changes are *+rel&) if biCarrel&) aesthetic. A &o+ng co+*le na(ed Natalie 5ere(iEenko and Dalton !onle& recentl& rena(ed their

fo+r2&ear2old son Yo Xing #e&no A+g+st+s Eisner Ale/ander ,eiser 9n+ckles 5ere(iEenko2!onle&. $o(e *eo*le change na(es for econo(ic *+r*oses" after a New York li%er&2cab dri%er na(ed 7ichael :oldberg was shot in earl& 8BB?) it was re*orted that 7r. :oldberg was in fact an Indian2born $ikh who tho+ght it ad%antageo+s to take a 5ewish na(e +*on i((igrating to New York. :old2berg's decision (ight ha%e *+CCled so(e *eo*le in show b+siness circles) where it is a ti(e2honored tradition to change 5ewish na(es. Th+s did Iss+r Danielo%itch beco(e 9irk Do+glas< th+s did the ,illia( 7orris Agenc& rise to *ro(inence +nder its na(esake) the for(er Jel(an 7oses. The =+estion is) wo+ld Jel(an 7oses ha%e done as well had he not beco(e ,illia( 7orris3 And wo+ld De$hawn ,illia(s do an& better if he called hi(self 5ake ,illia(s or !onnor ,illia(s3 It is te(*ting to think so1E+st as it is te(*ting to think that a tr+ckload of children's books will (ake a child s(arter. Tho+gh the a+dit st+dies can't be +sed to tr+l& (eas+re how (+ch a na(e (atters) the !alifornia na(es data can. #ow3 The !alifornia data incl+ded not onl& each bab&'s %ital statistics b+t infor(ation abo+t the (other's le%el of ed+cation) inco(e and) (ost significantl&) her own date of birth. This last fact (ade it *ossible to identif& the h+ndreds of tho+sands of !alifornia (others who had the(sel%es been born in !alifornia and then to link the( to their own birth records. Now a new and e/tre(el& *otent stor& e(erged fro( the data" it was *ossible to track the life o+tco(e of an& indi%id+al wo(an. This is the sort of data chain that researchers drea( abo+t) (aking it *ossible to identif& a set of children who were born +nder si(ilar circ+(stances) then locate the( again twent& or thirt& &ears later to see how the& t+rned o+t. A(ong the h+ndreds of tho+sands of s+ch wo(en in the !alifornia data) (an& bore distincti%el& black

na(es and (an& others did not.

sing regression anal&sis to control

for other factors that (ight infl+ence life traEectories) it was then *ossible to (eas+re the i(*act of a single factor1in this case) a wo(an's o+tco(es. $o does a na(e (atter3 The data show that) on a%erage) a *erson with a distincti%el& black na(e1whether it is a wo(an na(ed I(ani or a (an na(ed De$hawn 1does ha%e a worse life o+tco(e than a wo(an na(ed 7oll& or a (an na(ed 5ake. 6+t it isn't the fa+lt of their na(es. If two black bo&s) 5ake ,illia(s and De$hawn ,illia(s) are born in the sa(e neighborhood and into the sa(e fa(ilial and econo(ic circ+(stances) the& wo+ld likel& ha%e si(ilar life o+tco(es. 6+t the kind of *arents who na(e their son 5ake don't tend to li%e in the sa(e neighborhoods or share econo(ic circ+(stances with the kind of *arents who na(e their son De$hawn. And that's wh&) on a%erage) a bo& na(ed 5ake will tend to earn (ore (one& and get (ore ed+cation than a bo& na(ed De$hawn. A De$hawn is (ore likel& to ha%e been handica**ed b& a low2inco(e) low2ed+cation) single2*arent backgro+nd. #is na(e is an indicator1not a ca+se1of his o+tco(e. 5+st as a child with no books in his ho(e isn't likel& to test well in school) a bo& na(ed De$hawn isn't likel& to do as well in life. And what if De$hawn had changed his na(e to 5ake or !onnor" wo+ld his sit+ation i(*ro%e3 #ere's a g+ess" an&bod& who bothers to change his na(e in the na(e of econo(ic s+ccess is1like the high2school fresh(en in !hicago who entered the school2choice lotter&1at least highl& (oti%ated) and (oti%ation is *robabl& a stronger indicator of s+ccess than) well) a na(e. first na(e1on her ed+cational) inco(e) and health

5+st as the E!L$ data answered =+estions abo+t *arenting that went well be&ond the black2white test ga*) the !alifornia na(es data tell a lot of stories in addition to the one abo+t distincti%el& black na(es. 6roadl& s*eaking) the data tell +s how *arents see the(sel%es1and) (ore significantl&) what kind of e/*ectations the& ha%e for their children. #ere's a =+estion to begin with" where does a na(e co(e fro() an&wa&3 Not) that is) the act+al so+rce of the na(e1that (+ch is +s+all& ob%io+s" there's the 6ible) there's the h+ge cl+ster of traditional English and :er(anic and Italian and Hrench na(es) there are *rincess na(es and hi**ie na(es) nostalgic na(es and *lace na(es. Increasingl&) there are brand na(es FLe/+s) Ar(ani) 6acardi) Ti(ber2landG and what (ight be called as*irational na(es. The !alifornia data show eight #ar%ards born d+ring the 4@@Bs Fall of the( blackG) fifteen Yales Fall whiteG) and eighteen Princetons Fall blackG. There were no Doctors b+t three Law&ers Fall blackG) nine 5+dges Feight of the( whiteG) three $enators Fall whiteG) and two Presidents Fboth blackG. Then there are the in%ented na(es. Roland :. Hr&er 5r.) while disc+ssing his na(es research on a radio show) took a call fro( a black wo(an who was +*set with the na(e E+st gi%en to her bab& niece. It was *rono+nced sh+h2TEED b+t was in fact s*elled .$hithead.0 Or consider the twin bo&s Orange5ello and Le(on5ello) also black) whose *arents f+rther dignified their choice b& instit+ting the *ron+nciations a2RON2Chello and le27ON2Chello. Orange5ello) Le(on5ello) and $hithead ha%e &et to catch on a(ong the (asses) b+t other na(es do. #ow does a na(e (igrate thro+gh the *o*+lation) and wh&3 Is it *+rel& a (atter of Ceitgeist) or is there so(e sensible e/*lanation3 ,e all know that na(es rise and fall and rise1

witness the ret+rn of $o*hie and 7a/ fro( near e/tinction1b+t is there a discernible *attern to these (o%e(ents3 The answer lies in the !alifornia data) and the answer is &es. A(ong the (ost interesting re%elations in the data is the correlation between a bab&'s na(e and the *arent's socioecono(ic stat+s. !onsider the (ost co((on fe(ale na(es fo+nd in (iddle2inco(e white ho+seholds %ers+s low2inco(e white ho+seholds. FThese and other lists to follow incl+de data fro( the 4@@Bs alone) to ens+re a large sa(*le that is also c+rrent.G

7ost !o((on 7iddle2Inco(e ,hite :irl Na(es 4. $arah 8. E(il& ;. 5essica ?. La+ren D. Ashle& A. A(anda K. 7egan M. $a(antha @. #annah 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. 4D. 4A. Rachel Nicole Ta&lor EliCabeth 9atherine 7adison 5ennifer

4K. 4M. 4@. 8B.

Ale/andra 6rittan& Danielle Rebecca

7ost !o((on Low2Inco(e ,hite :irl Na(es 4. Ashle& 8. 5essica ;. A(anda ?. $a(antha D. 6rittan& A. $arah K. 9a&la M. A(ber @. 7egan 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. 4D. 4A. 4K. 4M. 4@. 8B. Ta&lor E(il& Nicole EliCabeth #eather Al&ssa $te*hanie 5ennifer #annah !o+rtne& Rebecca

There is considerable o%erla*) to be s+re. 6+t kee* in (ind that these are the (ost co((on na(es of all) and consider the siCe of the data set. The difference between consec+ti%e *ositions on these lists (a& re*resent se%eral h+ndred or e%en se%eral tho+sand children. $o if

6rittan& is n+(ber fi%e on the low2inco(e list and n+(ber eighteen on the (iddle2inco(e list) &o+ can be ass+red that 6rittan& is a decidedl& low2end na(e. Other e/a(*les are e%en (ore *rono+nced. Hi%e na(es in each categor& don't a**ear at all in the other categor&'s to* twent&. #ere are the to* fi%e na(es a(ong high2end and low2end fa(ilies) in order of their relati%e dis*arit& with the other categor&"

7ost !o((on #igh2End ,hite :irl Na(es 4. Ale/andra 8. La+ren ;. 9atherine ?. 7adison D. Rachel 7ost !o((on Low2End ,hite :irl Na(es 4. A(ber 8. #eather ;. 9a&la ?. $te*hanie D. Al&ssa And for the bo&s" 7ost !o((on #igh2End ,hite 6o& Na(es 4. 6enEa(in 8. $a(+el ;. 5onathan ?. Ale/ander

D. Andrew 7ost !o((on Low2End ,hite 6o& Na(es 4. !od& 8. 6randon ;. Anthon& ?. 5+stin D. Robert !onsidering the relationshi* between inco(e and na(es) and gi%en the fact that inco(e and ed+cation are strongl& correlated) it is not s+r*rising to find a si(ilarl& strong link between the *arents' le%el of ed+cation and the na(e the& gi%e their bab&. Once again drawing fro( the *ool of (ost co((on na(es a(ong white children) here are the to* *icks of highl& ed+cated *arents %ers+s those with the least ed+cation" 7ost !o((on ,hite :irl Na(es A(ong #igh2Ed+cation Parents 4. 9atherine 8. E((a ;. Ale/andra ?. 5+lia D. Rachel 7ost !o((on ,hite :irl Na(es A(ong Low2Ed+cation Parents 4. 9a&la 8. A(ber ;. #eather ?. 6rittan& D. 6rianna

7ost !o((on ,hite 6o& Na(es A(ong #igh2Ed+cation Parents 4. 6enEa(in 8. $a(+el ;. Ale/ander ?. 5ohn D. ,illia( 7ost !o((on ,hite 6o& Na(es A(ong Low2Ed+cation Parents 4. !od& 8. Tra%is ;. 6randon ?. 5+stin D. T&ler The effect is e%en (ore *rono+nced when the sa(*le is widened be&ond the (ost co((on na(es. Drawing fro( the entire !alifornia database) here are the na(es that signif& the (ost *oorl& ed+cated white *arents. The Twent& ,hite :irl Na(es That 6est $ignif& Low2Ed+cation Parents\ FA%erage n+(ber of &ears of (other's ed+cation in *arenthesesG 4. Angel F44.;MG 8. #ea%en F44.?AG ;. 7ist& F44.A4G ?. Destin& F44.AAG D. 6renda F44.K4G A. Tabatha F44.M4G

K. 6obbie F44.MKG M. 6rand& F44.M@G @. Destinee F44.@4G 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. 4D. 4A. 4K. 4M. 4@. 8B. !ind& F44.@8G 5aC(ine F44.@?G $h&anne F44.@AG 6ritan& F48.BDG 7ercedes F48.BAG Tiffanie F48.BMG Ashl& F48.44G Ton&a F48.4;G !r&stal F48.4DG 6randie F48.4AG 6randi F48.4KG

If &o+ or so(eone &o+ lo%e is na(ed !ind& or 6renda and is o%er) sa&) fort&) and feels that those na(es did not for(erl& connote a low2 ed+cation fa(il&) &o+ are right. These na(es) like (an& others) ha%e shifted hard and fast of late. $o(e of the other low2ed+cation na(es are ob%io+sl& (iss*ellings) whether intentional or not) of (ore standard na(es. In (ost cases the standard s*ellings of the na(es1 Tabitha) !he&enne) Tiffan&) 6rittan&) and 5as(ine1also signif& low ed+cation. 6+t the %ario+s s*ellings of e%en one na(e can re%eal a strong dis*arit&" Ten .5as(ines0 in Ascending Order of 7aternal Ed+cation FYears of (other's ed+cation in *arenthesesG 4. 5aC(ine F44.@?G 8. 5aC(&ne F48.BMG ;. 5aCC(in F48.4?G

?. 5aCC(ine F48.4AG D. 5as(&ne F48.4MG A. 5as(ina F48.DBG K. 5aC(&n F48.KKG M. 5as(ine F48.MMG @. 5as(in F4;.48G 4B. 5as(&n F4;.8;G

#ere is the list of low2ed+cation white bo& na(es. It incl+des the occasional (iss*elling F7icheal and T&lorG) b+t (ore co((on is the nickna(e2as2*ro*er2na(e trend. The Twent& ,hite 6o& Na(es That 6est $ignif& Low2Ed+cation Parents\ FYears of (other's ed+cation in *arenthesesG 4. Rick& F44.DDG 8. 5oe& F44.ADG ;. 5essie F44.AAG ?. 5i((& F44.AAG D. 6ill& F44.A@G A. 6obb& F44.K?G K. 5ohnn& F44.KDG M. Larr& F44.MBG @. Edgar F44.M4G 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. $te%e F44.M?G To((& F44.M@G Ton& F44.@AG 7icheal F44.@MG Ronnie F48.B;G

4D. 4A. 4K. 4M. 4@. 8B.

Rand& F48.BKG 5err& F48.BMG T&lor F48.4?G Terr& F48.4DG Dann& F48.4KG #arle& F48.88G

Now for the na(es that signif& the highest le%el of *arental ed+cation. These na(es don't ha%e (+ch in co((on) *honeticall& or aestheticall&) with the low2ed+cation na(es. The girls' na(es are in (ost regards di%erse) tho+gh with a fair share of literar& and otherwise artf+l to+ches. A ca+tion to *ros*ecti%e *arents who are sho**ing for a .s(art0 na(e" re(e(ber that s+ch a na(e won't (ake &o+r child s(art< it will) howe%er) gi%e her the sa(e na(e as other s(art kids1 at least for a while. FHor a (+ch longer and (ore %aried list of girls' and bo&s' na(es) see *. 88KG

The Twent& ,hite :irl Na(es That 6est $ignif& #igh2Ed+cation Parents\ FYears of (other's ed+cation in *arenthesesG 4. L+cienne F4A.ABG 8. 7arie2!laire F4A.DBG ;. :l&nnis F4A.?BG ?. Adair F4A.;AG D. 7eira F4A.8KG A. 6eatri/ F4A.8AG K. !le(entine F4A.8;G M. Phili**a F4A.84G

@. A%i%a F4A.4MG 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. 4D. 4A. 4K. 4M. 4@. 8B. Hlanner& F4A.4BG Rote( F4A.BMG Oona F4A.BBG Atara F4A.BBG Linden F4D.@?G ,a%erl& F4D.@;G Jofia F4D.MMG Pascale F4D.M8G Eleanora F4D.MBG Elika F4D.MBG Neeka F4D.KKG

Now for the bo&s' na(es that are t+rning +* these da&s in high2 ed+cation ho+seholds. This list is *artic+larl& hea%& on the #ebrew) with a noticeable trend toward Irish traditionalis(.

The Twent& ,hite 6o& Na(es That 6est $ignif& #igh2Ed+cation Parents\ Years of (other's ed+cation in *arenthesesG 4. Do% F4A.DBG 8. Aki%a F4A.?8G ;. $ander F4A.8@G ?. Yannick F4A.8BG D. $acha F4A.4MG A. :+illa+(e F4A.4KG K. Elon F4A.4AG M. Ansel F4A.4?G

@. Yonah F4A.4?G 4B. 44. 48. 4;. 4?. 4D. 4A. 4K. 4M. 4@. 8B. Tor F4A.4;G Hinnegan F4A.4;G 7ac:regor F4A.4BG Hlorian F4D.@?G Je% F4D.@8G 6eckett F4D.@4G 9ia F4D.@BG Ashkon F4D.M?G #ar*er F4D.M;G $+(ner F4D.KKG !alder F4D.KDG

If (an& na(es on the abo%e lists were +nfa(iliar to &o+) don't feel bad. E%en bo&s' na(es1which ha%e alwa&s been scarcer than girls'1 ha%e been *roliferating wildl&. This (eans that e%en the (ost *o*+lar na(es toda& are less *o*+lar than the& +sed to be. !onsider the ten (ost *o*+lar na(es gi%en to black bab& bo&s in !alifornia in 4@@B and then in 8BBB. The to* ten in 4@@B incl+des ;);KD babies F4M.K *ercent of those born that &earG) while the to* ten in 8BBB incl+des onl& 8)44D F4?.A *ercent of those born that &earG.

7ost Po*+lar 6lack 6o& Na(es FN+(ber of occ+rrences in *arenthesesG

4@@B 4. 7ichael FD;8G

8BBB 4. Isaiah F;BMG

8. !hristo*her FD;4G ;. Anthon& F;@DG ?. 6randon F;8;G D. 5a(es F;B;G A. 5osh+a F;B4G K. Robert F8KAG M. Da%id F8?;G @. 9e%in F8?BG 4B. 5+stin F8;4G

8. 5ordan F8AKG ;. EliEah F8A8G ?. 7ichael F8;DG D. 5osh+a F84MG A. Anthon& F8BMG K. !hristo*her F4A@G M. 5alen F4D@G @. 6randon F4?MG 4B. 5+stin F4?4G

In the s*ace of ten &ears) e%en the (ost *o*+lar na(e a(ong black bab& bo&s FD;8 occ+rrences for 7ichaelG beca(e far less *o*+lar F;BM occ+rrences for IsaiahG. $o *arents are *lainl& getting (ore di%erse with na(es. 6+t there's another noteworth& shift in these lists" a %er& =+ick rate of t+rno%er. Note that fo+r of the 4@@B na(es F5a(es) Robert) Da%id) and 9e%inG fell o+t of the to* ten b& 8BBB. :ranted) the& (ade +* the botto( half of the 4@@B list. 6+t the na(es that re*laced the( in 8BBB weren't botto( dwellers. Three of the new na(es1 Isaiah) 5ordan) and EliEah1were in fact n+(bers one) two) and three in 8BBB. Hor an e%en (ore drastic e/a(*le of how =+ickl& and thoro+ghl& a na(e can c&cle in and o+t of +se) consider the ten (ost *o*+lar na(es gi%en to white girls in !alifornia in 4@AB and then in 8BBB.

7ost Po*+lar ,hite :irl Na(es

4@AB 4. $+san 8. Lisa ;. 9aren ?. 7ar& D. !&nthia A. Deborah K. Linda M. Patricia @. Debra 4B. $andra

8BBB 4. E(il& 8. #annah ;. 7adison ?. $arah D. $a(antha A. La+ren K. Ashle& M. E((a @. Ta&lor 4B. 7egan

Not a single na(e fro( 4@AB re(ains in the to* ten. 6+t) &o+ sa&) it's hard to sta& *o*+lar for fort& &ears. $o how abo+t co(*aring toda&'s (ost *o*+lar na(es with the to* ten fro( onl& twent& &ears earlier3

7ost Po*+lar ,hite :irl Na(es

4@MB 4. 5ennifer 8. $arah

8BBB 4. E(il& 8. #annah

;. 7elissa ?. 5essica D. !hristina A. A(anda K. Nicole M. 7ichelle @. #eather 4B. A(ber

;. 7adison ?. $arah D. $a(antha A. La+ren K. Ashle& M. E((a @. Ta&lor 4B. 7egan

A single holdo%er" $arah. $o where do these E(il&s and E((as and La+rens all co(e fro(3 ,here on earth did 7adison co(e fro(3 It's eas& eno+gh to see that new na(es beco(e %er& *o*+lar %er& fast1 b+t wh&3 Let's take another look at a *air of earlier lists. #ere are the (ost *o*+lar na(es gi%en to bab& girls in the 4@@Bs a(ong low2inco(e fa(ilies and a(ong fa(ilies of (iddle inco(e or higher.

7ost !o((on .#igh2End0 ,hite :irl Na(es in the 4@@Bs 4. Ale/andra 8. La+ren ;. 9atherine ?. 7adison D. Rachel

7ost !o((on .Low2End0 ,hite :irl Na(es in the 4@@Bs 4. A(ber 8. #eather ;. 9a&la ?. $te*hanie D. Al&ssa Notice an&thing3 Yo+ (ight want to co(*are these na(es with the .7ost Po*+lar ,hite :irl Na(es0 list on *age 4@@) which incl+des the to* ten o%erall na(es fro( 4@MB and 8BBB. La+ren and 7adison) two of the (ost *o*+lar .high2end0 na(es fro( the 4@@Bs) (ade the 8BBB to* ten list. A(ber and #eather) (eanwhile) two of the o%erall (ost *o*+lar na(es fro( 4@MB) are now a(ong the .lowend0 na(es. There is a clear *attern at *la&" once a na(e catches on a(ong high2 inco(e) highl& ed+cated *arents) it starts working its wa& down the socioecono(ic ladder. A(ber and #eather started o+t as high2end na(es) as did $te*hanie and 6rittan&. Hor e%er& high2end bab& na(ed $te*hanie or 6rittan&) another fi%e lower2inco(e girls recei%ed those na(es within ten &ears. $o where do lower2end fa(ilies go na(e2sho**ing3 7an& *eo*le ass+(e that na(ing trends are dri%en b& celebrities. 6+t celebrities act+all& ha%e a weak effect on bab& na(es. As of 8BBB) the *o* star 7adonna had sold 4;B (illion records worldwide b+t hadn't generated e%en the ten co*&cat na(ings1in !alifornia) no less1re=+ired to (ake the (aster inde/ of fo+r tho+sand na(es fro( which the s*rawling list of girls' na(es on *age 88K was drawn. Or considering all the 6rittan&s) 6ritne&s) 6rittanis) 6rittanies) 6rittne&s) and 6rittnis &o+ enco+nter these da&s) &o+ (ight think of 6ritne& $*ears. 6+t she is in fact a s&(*to() not a ca+se) of the 6rittan&L6ritne&L6rittaniL

6rittanieL6rittne&L6rittni e/*losion. ,ith the (ost co((on s*elling of the na(e) 6rittan&) at n+(ber eighteen a(ong high2end fa(ilies and n+(ber fi%e a(ong low2end fa(ilies) it is s+rel& a**roaching its *+ll date. Decades earlier) $hirle& Te(*le was si(ilarl& a s&(*to( of the $hirle& boo() tho+gh she is often now re(e(bered as its ca+se. FIt sho+ld also be noted that (an& girls' na(es) incl+ding $hirle&) !arol) Leslie) #ilar&) Renee) $tac&) and Trac& began life as bo&s' na(es) b+t girls' na(es al(ost ne%er cross o%er to bo&s.G $o it isn't fa(o+s *eo*le who dri%e the na(e ga(e. It is the fa(il& E+st a few blocks o%er) the one with the bigger ho+se and newer car. The kind of fa(ilies that were the first to call their da+ghters A(ber or #eather and are now calling the( La+ren or 7adison. The kind of fa(ilies that +sed to na(e their sons 5+stin or 6randon and are now calling the( Ale/ander or 6enEa(in. Parents are rel+ctant to *oach a na(e fro( so(eone too near1fa(il& (e(bers or close friends1b+t (an& *arents) whether the& realiCe it or not) like the so+nd of na(es that so+nd .s+ccessf+l.0 6+t as a high2end na(e is ado*ted en (asse) high2end *arents begin to abandon it. E%ent+all&) it is considered so co((on that e%en lower2 end *arents (a& not want it) whereb& it falls o+t of the rotation entirel&. The lower2end *arents) (eanwhile) go looking for the ne/t na(e that the +**er2end *arents ha%e broken in. $o the i(*lication is clear" the *arents of all those Ale/andras) La+rens) 9atherines) 7adisons) and Rachels sho+ld not e/*ect the cachet to last (+ch longer. Those na(es are alread& on their wa& to o%ere/*os+re. ,here) then) will the new high2end na(es co(e fro(3 It wo+ldn't be s+r*rising to find the( a(ong the .s(artest0 girls' and bo&s' na(es in !alifornia) listed on *ages 4@KN@M) that are still fairl&

obsc+re. :ranted) so(e of the(1Oona and :l&nnis) Hlorian and 9ia1 are bo+nd to re(ain obsc+re. The sa(e co+ld be s+r(ised of (ost of the #ebrew na(es FRote( and Jofia) Aki%a and Je%G) e%en tho+gh (an& of toda&'s (ost (ainstrea( na(es FDa%id) 5onathan) $a(+el) 6enEa(in) Rachel) #annah) $arah) RebeccaG are of co+rse #ebrew biblical na(es. A%i%a (a& be the one (odern #ebrew na(e that is read& to break o+t" it's eas& to *rono+nce) *rett&) *e**&) and s+itabl& fle/ible. Drawn fro( a *air of .s(art0 databases) here is a sa(*ling of toda&'s high2end na(es. $o(e of the() as +nlikel& as it see(s) are bo+nd to beco(e to(orrow's (ainstrea( na(es. 6efore &o+ scoff) ask &o+rself this" do an& of the( see( (ore ridic+lo+s than .7adison0 (ight ha%e see(ed ten &ears ago3

7ost Po*+lar :irl's Na(es of 8B4D3

Annika Ansle& A%a A%er& A%i%a !le(entine Eleanor Ella E((a Hiona Hlanner& :race Isabel

9ate Lara Linden 7ae%e 7arie2!laire 7a&a Phili**a Phoebe Q+inn $o*hie ,a%erl&

7ost Po*+lar 6o&s' Na(es of 8B4D3

Aidan Aldo Anderson Ansel Asher 6eckett 6ennett !arter !oo*er Hinnegan #ar*er 5ackson 5ohan 9e&on Lia( 7a/i(ilian 7c:regor

Oli%er Reagan $ander $+(ner ,ill

Ob%io+sl&) a %ariet& of (oti%es are at work when *arents consider a na(e for their child. The& (a& want so(ething traditional or so(ething bohe(ian) so(ething +ni=+e or so(ething *erfectl& trend&. It wo+ld be an o%erstate(ent to s+ggest that all *arents are looking1 whether conscio+sl& or not1for a .s(art0 na(e or a .high2end0 na(e. 6+t the& are all tr&ing to signal so(ething with a na(e) whether the na(e is ,inner or Loser) 7adison or A(ber) $hithead or $ander) De$hawn or 5ake. ,hat the !alifornia na(es data s+ggest is that an o%erwhel(ing n+(ber of *arents +se a na(e to signal their own e/*ectations of how s+ccessf+l their children will be. The na(e isn't likel& to (ake a shard of difference. 6+t the *arents can at least feel better knowing that) fro( the %er& o+tset) the& tried their best.

E)I#O3+E, '1o )$ths to H$rv$rd

And now) with all these *ages behind +s) an earl& *ro(ise has been confir(ed" this book indeed has no .+nif&ing the(e.0 6+t if there is no +nif&ing the(e to Hreakono(ics) there is at least a co((on thread r+nning thro+gh the e%er&da& a**lication of Hreakono(ics. It has to do with thinking sensibl& abo+t how *eo*le beha%e in the real world. All it re=+ires is a no%el wa& of looking) of discerning) of (eas+ring. This isn't necessaril& a diffic+lt task) nor does it re=+ire s+*erso*histicated thinking. ,e ha%e essentiall& tried to

fig+re o+t what the t&*ical gang (e(ber or s+(o wrestler fig+red o+t on his own Faltho+gh we had to do so in re%erseG. ,ill the abilit& to think s+ch tho+ghts i(*ro%e &o+r life (ateriall&3 Probabl& not. Perha*s &o+'ll *+t +* a st+rd& gate aro+nd &o+r swi((ing *ool or *+sh &o+r real2estate agent to work a little harder. 6+t the net effect is likel& to be (ore s+btle than that. Yo+ (ight beco(e (ore ske*tical of the con%entional wisdo(< &o+ (a& begin looking for hints as to how things aren't =+ite what the& see(< *erha*s &o+ will seek o+t so(e tro%e of data and sift thro+gh it) balancing &o+r intelligence and &o+r int+ition to arri%e at a gli((ering new idea. $o(e of these ideas (ight (ake &o+ +nco(fortable) e%en +n*o*+lar. To clai( that legaliCed abortion res+lted in a (assi%e dro* in cri(e will ine%itabl& lead to e/*losi%e (oral reactions. 6+t the fact of the (atter is that Hreakono(ics2st&le thinking si(*l& doesn't traffic in (oralit&. As we s+ggested near the beginning of this book) if (oralit& re*resents an ideal world) then econo(ics re*resents the act+al world. The (ost likel& res+lt of ha%ing read this book is a si(*le one" &o+ (a& find &o+rself asking a lot of =+estions. 7an& of the( will lead to nothing. 6+t so(e will *rod+ce answers that are interesting) e%en s+r*rising. !onsider the =+estion *osed at the beginning of this book's *en+lti(ate cha*ter" how (+ch do *arents reall& (atter3 The data ha%e b& now (ade it clear that *arents (atter a great deal in so(e regards F(ost of which ha%e been long deter(ined b& the ti(e a child is bornG and not at all in others Fthe ones we obsess abo+tG. Yo+ can't bla(e *arents for tr&ing to do so(ething1an&thing1to hel* their child s+cceed) e%en if it's so(ething as irrele%ant as gi%ing hi( a high2end first na(e.

6+t there is also a h+ge rando( effect that rains down on e%en the best *arenting efforts. If &o+ are in an& wa& t&*ical) &o+ ha%e known so(e intelligent and de%oted *arents whose child went badl& off the rails. Yo+ (a& ha%e also known of the o**osite instance) where a child s+cceeds des*ite his *arents' worst intentions and habits. Recall for a (o(ent the two bo&s) one white and one black) who were described in cha*ter D. The white bo& who grew +* o+tside !hicago had s(art) solid) enco+raging) lo%ing *arents who stressed ed+cation and fa(il&. The black bo& fro( Da&tona 6each was abandoned b& his (other) was beaten b& his father) and had beco(e a f+ll2fledged gangster b& his teens. $o what beca(e of the two bo&s3 The second child) now twent&2se%en &ears old) is Roland :. Hr&er 5r.) the #ar%ard econo(ist st+d&ing black +nderachie%e(ent. The white child also (ade it to #ar%ard. 6+t soon after) things went badl& for hi(. #is na(e is Ted 9acC&nski.

NO'ES
The b+lk of this book was drawn fro( the research of $te%en D. Le%itt) often done in concert with one or (ore collaborators. The notes below incl+de citations for the acade(ic *a*ers on which the (aterial was based. ,e ha%e also (ade liberal +se of other scholars' research) which is also cited below< we thank the( not onl& for their work b+t for the s+bse=+ent con%ersations that allowed +s to best *resent their ideas. Other (aterial in this book co(es fro( *re%io+sl& +n*+blished research or inter%iews b& one or both of the a+thors. 7aterial not listed in these notes was drawn fro( readil& accessible databases) news re*orts) and reference works.

AN EXPLANATORY NOTE T#E ITALI!IJED EX!ERPT$ in this section and elsewhere originall& a**eared in $te*hen 5. D+bner) .The Probabilit& That a Real2Estate Agent Is !heating Yo+ Fand Other Riddles of 7odern LifeG)0 The New York Ti(es 7agaCine) A+g+st ;) 8BB;. INTROD !TION" T#E #IDDEN $IDE OH E>ERYT#IN: T#E HALL AND HALL OH !RI7E" The cri(e2dro* arg+(ent can be fo+nd in $te%en D. Le%itt) . nderstanding ,h& !ri(e Hell in the 4@@B's" Ho+r Hactors That E/*lain the Decline and $i/ That Do Not)0 5o+rnal of Econo(ic Pers*ecti%es 4M) no. 4 F8BB?G) **. 4A;N@B. L ;N? The s+*er*redator" $ee Eric Poole&) .9ids with :+ns)0 New York 7agaCine) A+g+st @) 4@@4< 5ohn 5. DiI+lio 5r.) .The !o(ing of the $+*er2Predators)0 ,eekl& $tandard) No%e(ber 8K) 4@@D< To( 7organtha+) .The L+ll 6efore the $tor(30 Newsweek) Dece(ber ?) 4@@D< Richard Joglin) .Now for the 6ad News" A Teenage Ti(e 6o(b)0 Ti(e) 5an+ar& 4D) 4@@A< and Ted :est) .!ri(e Ti(e 6o(b)0 .$. News ] ,orld Re*ort) 7arch 8D) 4@@A. L ? 5a(es Alan Ho/'s dire *redictions can be fo+nd in a *air of go%ern(ent re*orts" .Trends in 5+%enile >iolence" A Re*ort to the nited $tates Attorne& :eneral on !+rrent and H+t+re Rates of *date0 F,ashington) D.!." 5+%enile Offending0 F,ashington) D.!." 6+rea+ of 5+stice $tatistics) 4@@AG and .Trends in 5+%enile >iolence" An 6+rea+ of 5+stice $tatistics) 4@@KG. L ? President !linton's fearf+l co((ent ca(e d+ring a 4@@K s*eech in 6oston anno+ncing new anti2 cri(e (eas+res< see Alison 7itchell) .!linton rges !a(*aign Against Yo+th !ri(e)0 New York Ti(es) Hebr+ar& 8B) 4@@K. L DNA The stor& of Nor(a 7c!or%e&L5ane Roe" $ee Do+glas $. ,ood) .,ho Is R5ane Roe3'" Anon&(o+s No 7ore) Nor(a 7c!or%e& No Longer $+**orts Abortion Rights)0 !NN.co() 5+ne 4M) 8BB;< and Nor(a 7c!or%e& with And& 7eisler) I A( Roe" 7& Life) Roe %. ,ade) and Hreedo( of !hoice FNew

York" #ar*er!ollins) 4@@?G. L A The abortion2cri(e link is arg+ed in two *a*ers b& $te%en D. Le%itt and 5ohn 5. Donoh+e III" .The I(*act of LegaliCed Abortion on !ri(e)0 Q+arterl& 5o+rnal of Econo(ics 44A) no. 8 F8BB4G) **. ;K@N?8B< and .H+rther E%idence That LegaliCed Abortion Lowered !ri(e" A Res*onse to 5o&ce)0 5o+rnal of #+(an Reso+rces ;@) no. 4 F8BB?G) **. 8@N?@.KN@ T#E REAL REAL2E$TATE $TORY" The st+d& (eas+ring how a real2estate agent treats the sale of her own ho(e %ers+s a client's ho(e is $te%en D. Le%itt and !had $&%erson) .7arket Distortions ,hen Agents Are 6etter Infor(ed" A Theoretical and E(*irical E/*loration of the >al+e of Infor(ation in Real Estate Transactions)0 National 6+rea+ of Econo(ic Research working *a*er) 8BBD. L KNM The la/ !alifornia a+to (echanics are disc+ssed in Tho(as #+bbard) .An E(*irical E/a(ination of 7oral #aCard in the >ehicle Ins*ection 7arket)0 RAND 5o+rnal of Econo(ics 8@) no. 4 F4@@MG) **. ?BAN8A< and in Tho(as #+bbard) .#ow Do !ons+(ers 7oti%ate E/*erts3 Re*+tational Incenti%es in an A+to Re*air 7arket)0 5o+rnal of Law ] Econo(ics ?D) no. 8 F8BB8G) **. ?;KNAM. L M Doctors who *erfor( e/tra !2sections are e/a(ined in 5onathan :r+ber and 7aria Owings) .Ph&sician Hinancial Incenti%es and !aesarean $ection Deli%er&)0 RAND 5o+rnal of Econo(ics 8K) no. 4 F4@@AG) **. @@N48;. T#E 7YT# OH !A7PAI:N $PENDIN: is told in greater detail in a trio of *a*ers" $te%en D. Le%itt) . sing Re*eat !hallengers to Esti(ate the Effect of !a(*aign $*ending on Election O+tco(es in the .$. #o+se)0 5o+rnal of Political Econo(&) A+g+st 4@@?) **. KKKN@M< $te%en D. Le%itt) .!ongressional !a(*aign Hinance Refor()0 5o+rnal of Econo(ic Pers*ecti%es @ F4@@DG) **. 4M;N@;< and $te%en D. Le%itt and 5a(es 7. $n&der 5r.) .The I(*act of Hederal $*ending on #o+se Election O+tco(es)0 5o+rnal of Political Econo(& 4BD) no. 4 F4@@KG) **. ;BND;.

EI:#T :LA$$E$ OH ,ATER A DAY" $ee Robert 5. Da%is) .!an ,ater Aid ,eight Loss30 ,all $treet 5o+rnal) 7arch 4A) 8BB?) which cites an Instit+te of 7edicine re*ort concl+ding that .there is no scientific basis for the reco((endation Zof eight glasses of water a da&[ and that (ost *eo*le get eno+gh water thro+gh nor(al cons+(*tion of foods and be%erages.0 ADA7 $7IT# is still well worth reading) of co+rse Fes*eciall& if &o+ ha%e infinite *atienceG< so too is Robert #eilbroner's The ,orldl& Philoso*hers FNew York" $i(on ] $ch+ster) 4@D;G) which contains (e(orable *rofiles of $(ith) 9arl 7ar/) Thorstein >eblen) 5ohn 7a&nard 9e&nes) 5ose*h $ch+(2*eter) and other giants of econo(ics. 4. ,#AT DO $!#OOLTEA!#ER$ AND $ 7O ,RE$TLER$ #A>E IN !O77ON3 T#E I$RAELI DAY2!ARE $T DY" $ee 4N4K< and ri :neeC& and Aldo R+stichini) .A ni%ersit& of

Hine Is a Price)0 5o+rnal of Legal $t+dies 8@) no. 4 F5an+ar& 8BBBG) **. ri :neeC&) .The R,' Effect of Incenti%es)0 !hicago working *a*er. 7 RDER T#RO :# T#E A:E$" $ee 7an+el Eisner) .$ec+lar Trends of >iolence) E%idence) and Theoretical Inter*retations)0 !ri(e and 5+stice" A Re%iew of Research ; F8BB;G< also *resented in 7an+el Eisner) .>iolence and the Rise of 7odern $ociet&)0 !ri(inolog& in !a(bridge) October 8BB;) **. ;NK. T#O7A$ *. 4DA. 6LOOD HOR 7ONEY" $ee Richard 7. Tit(+ss) .The :ift of 6lood)0 Transaction M F4@K4G< also *resented in The Philoso*h& of ,elfare" 5EHHER$ON ON !A $E2AND2EHHE!T" A+tobiogra*h& of

Tho(as 5efferson F4M8@< re*rint) New York" :.P. P+tna('s $ons) 4@4?G)

$elected ,ritings b& R. 7. Tit(+ss) ed. 6. Abel2$(ith and 9. Tit(+ss FLondon" Allen and nwin) 4@MKG. $ee also ,illia( E. ni%ersit&) 4@K;. *ton) .Altr+is() Attrib+tion) and Intrinsic 7oti%ation in the Recr+it(ent of 6lood Donors)0 Ph.D. diss.) !ornell

,#EN $E>EN 7ILLION !#ILDREN DI$APPEARED O>ERNI:#T" $ee 5effre& Lieb(an) .,ho Are the Ineligible EIT! Reci*ients30 National Ta/ 5o+rnal D; F8BBBG) **. 44ADNMA. Lieb(an's *a*er was citing 5ohn $Cilag&i) .,here $o(e of Those De*endents ,ent)0 4@@B Research !onference Re*ort" #ow Do ,e Affect Ta/*a&er 6eha%ior3 FInternal Re%en+e $er%ice" 7arch 4@@4G) **. 4A8NA;. !#EATIN: TEA!#ER$ IN !#I!A:O" This st+d&) which also *ro%ides considerable backgro+nd on high2stakes testing) is detailed in two *a*ers" 6rian A. 5acob and $te%en D. Le%itt) .Rotten A**les" An In%estigation of the Pre%alence and Predictors of Teacher !heating)0 Q+arterl& 5o+rnal of Econo(ics 44M) no. ; F8BB;G) **. M?;NKK< and 6rian A. 5acob and $te%en D. Le%itt) .!atching !heating Teachers" The Res+lts of an n+s+al E/*eri(ent in I(*le(enting Theor&)0 6rookings2 rban Affairs) 8BB;) **. 4MDN8B@. L 8K The Oakland ,harton Pa*ers on

fifth2grader with the e/tra2hel*f+l teacher" 6ased on an a+thor inter%iew with a for(er assistant s+*erintendent of the Oakland P+blic $chools. L ;?N;D !heating a(ong North !arolina teachers" $ee :. #. :a&) .$tandardiCed Tests" Irreg+larities in Ad(inistering of Tests Affect Test Res+lts)0 5o+rnal of Instr+ctional Ps&cholog& 4K) no. 8 F4@@BG) **. @;N4B;. L ;DN;K The stor& of Arne D+ncan) !EO of the !hicago schools) was based largel& on a+thor inter%iews< see also A(& D'Orio) .The O+tsider !o(es In)0 District Ad(inistration" The 7agaCine for 9N48 Ed+cation Leaders) A+g+st 8BB8< and %ario+s !hicago Trib+ne articles b& Ra& Q+intanilla.

T#E

NI>ER$ITY OH :EOR:IA 6A$9ET6ALL TE$T was (ade *+blic

when the +ni%ersit& released 4)DBB *ages of doc+(ents in res*onse to an in%estigation b& the National !ollegiate Athletic Association. !#EATIN: IN $ 7O" $ee 7ark D+ggan and $te%en D. Le%itt) .,inning Isn't E%er&thing" !orr+*tion in $+(o ,restling)0 A(erican Econo(ic Re%iew @8) no. D FDece(ber 8BB8G) **. 4D@?N4ABD. L ;MN?D There is a lot to know abo+t s+(o) and =+ite a bit can be fo+nd in these books" 7ina #all) The 6ig 6ook of $+(o F6erkele&) !alif." $tonebridge Press) 4@@KG< 9eis+ke Itai) Nakabon FTok&o" $hogakkan Press) 8BBBG< and Onar+to) Yaocho FTok&o" Line 6ooks) 8BBBG. L ?? Two s+(o whistleblowers die (&sterio+sl&" $ee $her&l ,+D+nn) .$+(o ,restlers FThe&'re 6I:G Hacing a #ard Hall)0 New York Ti(es) 5+ne 8M) 4@@A< and Anthon& $*aeth) .$+(o Q+ake" 5a*an's Re%ered $*ort Is 7arred b& !harges of Ta/ E%asion) 7atch Hi/ing) Ties to OrganiCed !ri(e) and Two 7&sterio+s Deaths)0 re*orting b& Irene 7. 9+nii and #iroki Tashiro) Ti(e FInternational EditionG) $e*te(ber ;B)4@@A. T#E 6A:EL 7AN" Pa+l Held(an was looking for a research econo(ist to take an interest in his data) and bro+ght hi(self to $te%en Le%itt's attention. F$e%eral other scholars had *assed.G Le%itt and then D+bner s+bse=+entl& %isited Held(an's bagel o*eration near ,ashington) D.!. Their research led to an article that was s+bstantiall& si(ilar to the %ersion of the stor& *+blished here" $te*hen 5. D+bner and $te%en D. Le%itt) .,hat the 6agel 7an $aw)0 The New York Ti(es 7agaCine) 5+ne A) 8BB?. Le%itt is also writing an acade(ic *a*er abo+t Held(an's bagel o*eration. L ?K The .6eer on the 6each0 st+d& is disc+ssed in Richard #. Thaler) .7ental Acco+nting and !ons+(er !hoice)0 7arketing $cience ? F$+((er 4@MDG) **. 44@N84?< also worth reading is Richard #. Thaler) The ,inner's !+rse" Parado/es and Ano(alies of Econo(ic Life FNew York" Hree Press) 4@@8G.

8. #O, I$ T#E 9 A:ENT$3 N7A$9IN: T#E 9

9L X 9LAN LI9E A :RO P OH REAL2E$TATE

9L X 9LAN" A n+(ber of e/cellent books ha%e

been written abo+t the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan. Hor general histor&) we relied (ost hea%il& on ,&n !raig ,ade) The Hier& !ross" The 9+ 9l+/ 9lan in A(erica FNew York" $i(on ] $ch+ster) 4@MKG) and Da%id 7. !hal(ers) #ooded A(ericanis(" The Hirst !ent+r& of the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan) 4MADN 4@AD F:arden !it&) NY" Do+bleda&) 4@ADG< see also $tetson 9enned&) After A**o(atto/" #ow the $o+th ,on the ,ar F:aines%ille" 9enned&) The 9lan n(asked F6oca Raton" Hlorida Atlantic ni%ersit& ni%ersit& Press of Hlorida) 4@@DG. Of (ost *artic+lar interest to +s was $tetson Press) 4@@BG) which was originall& *+blished as I Rode with the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan FLondon" Arco P+blishers) 4@D?G. 6+t $tetson 9enned& hi(self is *robabl& the greatest li%ing re*ositor& of 9lan lore. FHor (ore infor(ation) see www.stetsonkenned&.co(< also) (an& of 9enned&'s *a*ers are ho+sed in the $cho(b+rg !enter for Research in 6lack !+lt+re in New York.G The a+thors %isited 9enned& at his ho(e near 5ackson%ille) Hlorida) inter%iewing hi( and a%ailing o+rsel%es of his e/tensi%e collection of 9lan *ara*hernalia and doc+(entation. F,e also tried on his 9lan robes.G ,e are (ost gratef+l for his coo*eration. The #ar%ard econo(ist Roland :. Hr&er 5r. acco(*anied +s< he and $te%en Le%itt are c+rrentl& collaborating on a series of *a*ers abo+t the 9+ 9l+/ 9lan. It sho+ld be noted that Hr&er was dri%ing the rental car as we first so+ght o+t 9enned&'s ho+se on a sand& back road. ,e sto**ed to ask a neighbor for directions. 9enned& is still considered an ene(& in 9lan circles) and the neighbor was *lainl& *rotecti%e of 9enned&'s whereabo+ts. $o he *eered into the car1directl& at Hr&er) who is black1and in all earnestness asked) .Y'all ain't 9lan) are &a30 Hr&er ass+red hi( we were not.

,#AT #APPENED TO TER72LIHE RATE$3 $ee 5effre& R. 6rown and A+stan :oolsbee) .Does the Internet 7ake 7arkets 7ore !o(*etiti%e3 E%idence fro( the Life Ins+rance Ind+str&)0 5o+rnal of Political Econo(& 44B) no. ; F5+ne 8BB8G) **. ?M4NDBK. $ PRE7E !O RT 5 $TI!E LO I$ D. 6RANDEI$ writing that .$+nlight is said to be the best of disinfectants0" $ee Lo+is D. 6randeis) Other Peo*le's 7one&1and #ow 6ankers $tokes) 4@4?G. T#E 6RAND2NE, $ED2!AR !ON NDR 7" This thesis) and indeed se It FNew York" Hrederick A.

(+ch of what we think toda& abo+t .as&((etric infor(ation)0 ste(s fro( a *a*er that :eorge A. Akerlof wrote d+ring his first &ear as an assistant *rofessor at 6erkele& in 4@AANAK. It was reEected three ti(es 1two of the Eo+rnals told Akerlof that the& .did not *+blish *a*ers on to*ics of s+ch tri%ialit&)0 as he later recalled1before being *+blished as :eorge A. Akerlof) .The 7arket for RLe(ons'" Q+alit& ncertaint& and the 7arket 7echanis()0 Q+arterl& 5o+rnal of Econo(ics) A+g+st 4@KB. $o(e thirt& &ears later) the *a*er won Akerlof the Nobel PriCe in Econo(ics< he is widel& considered the nicest (an to ha%e e%er won the award. T#E ENRON TAPE$" As of this writing) the ta*es co+ld be heard on htt*"LL www.cbsnews.co(LstoriesL8BB?LBALB4Le%eningnewsL(ainA^8BA8A.sht (l. $ee also Richard A. O**el 5r.) .Enron Traders on :rand(a 7illie and 7aking O+t Like 6andits)0 New York Ti(es) 5+ne 4;) 8BB?. ARE AN:IOPLA$TIE$ NE!E$$ARY3 $ee :ina 9olata) .New #eart $t+dies Q+estion the >al+e of O*ening Arteries)0 New York Ti(es) 7arch 84) 8BB?.

T#E REAL REAL2E$TATE $TORY) RE>I$ITED" $ee $te%en D. Le%itt and !had $&%erson) .7arket Distortions ,hen Agents Are 6etter Infor(ed" A Theoretical and E(*irical E/*loration of the >al+e of Infor(ation in Real2Estate Transactions)0 National 6+rea+ of Econo(ic Research working *a*er) 8BBD. TRENT LOTT) NOT2$O2$E!RET $E:RE:ATIONI$T3 The circ+(stances s+rro+nding Lott's da(aging co((ents are well s+((ariCed in Dan :oodga(e and 9aren T+(+lt&) .Lott" Tri**ed Ti(e.co(Lcnn.co() Dece(ber 4A) 8BB8. T#E ,EA9E$T LIN9" $ee $te%en D. Le%itt) .Testing Theories of Discri(ination" E%idence fro( The ,eakest Link)0 5o+rnal of Law and Econo(ics 4K FOctober 8BB?G) **. ?;4ND8. L K@ The theor& of taste2 based discri(ination originates with :ar& $. 6ecker) The Econo(ics of Discri(ination F!hicago" ni%ersit& of !hicago Press) 4@DKG. L K@ The theor& of infor(ation2based discri(ination is deri%ed fro( a n+(ber of *a*ers) incl+ding Ed(+nd Phel*s) .A $tatistical Theor& of Racis( and $e/is()0 A(erican Econo(ic Re%iew A8) no. ? F4@K8G) **. AD@NA4< and 9enneth Arrow) .The Theor& of Discri(ination)0 Discri(ination in Labor 7arkets) ed. Orle& Ashenfelter and Albert Rees FPrinceton) N.5." Princeton ni%ersit& Press) 4@K;G. * b& #istor&)0

T#E ONLINE DATIN: $TORY" $ee Dan Ariel&) :Unter 5. #itsch) and Ali #ortaTs+) .,hat 7akes Yo+ !lick" An E(*irical Anal&sis of Online Dating)0 ni%ersit& of !hicago working *a*er) 8BB?.

>OTER$ LYIN: A6O T DIN9IN$ L :I LIANI" $ee Ti(+r 9+ran) Pri%ate Tr+ths) P+blic Lies" The $ocial !onse=+ences of Preference Halsification F!a(bridge) 7ass." #ar%ard ni%ersit& Press) 4@@DG< also 9e%in $ack) .:o%ernor 5oins Dinkins Attack Against Ri%al)0 New York Ti(es)

October 8K) 4@M@< and $a( Roberts) . ncertaint& o%er Polls !lo+ds $trateg& in 7a&or Race)0 New York Ti(es) October ;4) 4@M@. >OTER$ LYIN: A6O T DA>ID D 9E" $ee 9+ran) Pri%ate Tr+ths) P+blic Lies< also Peter A**lebo(e) .Re*+blican Q+its Lo+isiana Race in Effort to Defeat E/29lans(an)0 New York Ti(es) October D) 4@@B< and Peter A**lebo(e) .Racial Politics in $o+th's !ontests" #ot ,ind of #ate or Last :as*30 New York Ti(es) No%e(ber D) 4@@B. DA>ID D 9E) 7A$TER OH INHOR7ATION A6 $E" A(ong the (an& hel*f+l so+rces for this (aterial were 9aren #enderson) .Da%id D+ke's ,ork2Release Progra()0 National P+blic Radio) 7a& 4?) 8BB?< and the e/ha+sti%e 5ohn 7cQ+aid) .D+ke's Decline)0 New Orleans Ti(es2 Pica&+ne) A*ril 4;)8BB;. ;. ,#Y DO DR : DEALER$ $TILL LI>E ,IT# T#EIR 7O7$3 5O#N 9ENNET# :AL6RAIT#'$ .!ON>ENTIONAL ,I$DO70" $ee .The !once*t of the !on%entional ,isdo()0 the second cha*ter of The Affl+ent $ociet& F6oston" #o+ghton 7ifflin) 4@DMG. 7IT!# $NYDER AND T#E #O7ELE$$ 7ILLION$" The contro%ers& o%er $n&der's acti%is( was co%ered widel&) *artic+larl& in !olorado news*a*ers) d+ring the earl& 4@MBs and was re%isited in 4@@B when $n&der co((itted s+icide. A good o%er%iew is *ro%ided in :ar& $. 6ecker and :+it& Nashat 6ecker) .#ow the #o(eless R!risis' ,as #&*ed)0 in The Econo(ics of Life FNew York" 7c:raw2#ill) 4@@KG) **. 4KDNKA< the cha*ter was ada*ted fro( a 4@@? 6+siness ,eek article b& the sa(e a+thors. T#E IN>ENTION OH !#RONI! #ALITO$I$" The strange and co(*elling stor& of Listerine is bea+tif+ll& told in 5a(es 6. Twitchell) Twent& Ads

That $hook the ,orld" The !ent+r&'s 7ost :ro+ndbreaking Ad%ertising and #ow It !hanged s All FNew York" !rown) 8BBBG) **. ABNA@.

:EOR:E ,. 6 $# A$ A 7A9E26ELIE>E !O,6OY" $ee Pa+l 9r+g(an) .New Year's Resol+tions)0 New York Ti(es) Dece(ber 8A) 8BB;. NOT A$ 7 !# RAPE A$ I$ !O77ONLY T#O :#T" The 8BB8 statistics fro( the National !ri(e $+r%e&) which is designed to elicit honest res*onses) s+ggests that the lifeti(e risk of a wo(an's being the %icti( of +nwanted se/+al acti%it& or atte(*ted +nwanted se/+al acti%it& is abo+t one in eight Fnot one in three) as is t&*icall& arg+ed b& ad%ocatesG. Hor (en) the National !ri(e $+r%e& s+ggests a one2in2 fort& incidence) rather than the one2in2nine incidence cited b& ad%ocates. NOT A$ 7 !# !RI7E A$ T#ERE A!T ALLY ,A$" $ee 7ark Niesse) .Re*ort $a&s Atlanta nderre*orted !ri(es to #el* Land 4@@A Ol&(*ics)0 Associated Press) Hebr+ar& 8B) 8BB?. $ D#IR >EN9ATE$#'$ LON:) $TRAN:E TRIP INTO T#E !RA!9 DEN" As of this writing) >enkatesh is an associate *rofessor of sociolog& and African A(erican st+dies at !ol+(bia ni%ersit&. L @;N@@ The biogra*hical (aterial on >enkatesh was drawn largel& fro( a+thor inter%iews< see also 5ordan 7arsh) .The :ang ,a&)0 !hicago Reader) A+g+st M) 4@@K< and Robert L. 9aiser) .The $cience of Hitting In)0 !hicago Trib+ne) Dece(ber 4B) 8BBB. L @@N4B@ The *artic+lars of the crack gang are co%ered in fo+r *a*ers b& $+dhir Alladi >enkatesh and $te%en D. Le%itt" .The Hinancial Acti%ities of an rban $treet :ang)0 rban Q+arterl& 5o+rnal of Econo(ics 44D) no. ; FA+g+st 8BBBG) **. KDDNM@< .RAre ,e a Ha(il& or a 6+siness3' #istor& and DisE+nct+re in the ?8KNA8< .:rowing A(erican $treet :ang)0 Theor& and $ociet& 8@ FA+t+(n 8BBBG) **. * in the ProEects" The Econo(ic Li%es of a !ohort of

7en ,ho !a(e of Age in !hicago P+blic #o+sing)0 A(erican Econo(ic Re%iew @4) no. 8 F8BB4G) **. K@NM?< and .The Political Econo(& of an A(erican $treet :ang)0 A(erican 6ar Ho+ndation working *a*er) 4@@M. $ee also $+dhir Alladi >enkatesh) A(erican ProEect" The Rise and Hall of a 7odern :hetto F!a(bridge) 7ass." #ar%ard ni%ersit& Press) 8BBBG. L 4B?!rack dealing as the (ost dangero+s Eob in A(erica" According to the 6+rea+ of Labor $tatistics) the ten (ost dangero+s legiti(ate occ+*ations are ti(ber c+tters) fishers) *ilots and na%igators) str+ct+ral (etal workers) dri%ersLsales workers) roofers) electrical *ower installers) far( occ+*ations) constr+ction laborers) and tr+ck dri%ers. T#E IN>ENTION OH NYLON $TO!9IN:$" It was ,allace !arothers) a &o+ng Iowa2born che(ist e(*lo&ed b& D+Pont) who) after se%en &ears of tr&ing) fo+nd a wa& to blow li=+id *ol&(ers thro+gh tin& noCCles to create a fiber of s+*erstrong strands. This was n&lon. $e%eral &ears later) D+Pont introd+ced n&lon stockings in New York and London. !ontrar& to lore) the (iracle fabric's na(e did not deri%e fro( a co(bination of those two cities' na(es. Nor was it) as r+(ored) an acron&( for .Now Yo+'%e Lost) Old Ni**on)0 a sn+b to 5a*an's do(inant silk (arket. The na(e was act+all& a he**ed2+* rendering of .No R+n)0 a slogan that the new stockings co+ld not in fact +*hold) b+t whose fail+re hardl& di(inished their s+ccess. !arothers) a long2ti(e de*ressi%e) did not li%e to see his in%ention blosso(" he killed hi(self in 4@;K b& drinking c&anide. $ee 7atthew E. #er(es) Eno+gh for One Lifeti(e" ,allace !arothers) In%entor of N&lon FPhiladel*hia" !he(ical #eritage Ho+ndation) 4@@AG. !RA!9 $LAN:" The :reater Dallas !o+ncil on Alcohol and Dr+g Ab+se has co(*iled an e/traordinaril& entertaining inde/ of cocaine street na(es. Hor cocaine *owder" 6adrock) 6aCooka) 6ea() 6erni) 6ernice)

6ig !) 6last) 6liCCard) 6low) 6l+nt) 6o+ncing Powder) 6+(*) !) !aballo) !aine) !and&) !a%iar) !harlie) !hicken $cratch) !oca) !ocktail) !ocon+t) !oke) !ola) Da(ablanca) D+st) Hlake) Hle/) Hlorida $now) Hoo Hoo) HreeCe) :2Rock) :irl) :oofball) #a**& D+st) #a**& Powder) #a**& Trails) #ea%en) 9ing) Lad&) Lad& !aine) Late Night) Line) 7a(a !oca) 7arching D+stLPowder) 7oEo) 7onster) 7+Eer) Nie%e) Nose) Nose !and&) P2Dogs) Per+%ian) Powder) Press) Pri(e Ti(e) R+sh) $hot) $leighride) $niff) $nort) $now) $now2birds) $oda) $*eedball) $*orting) $tard+st) $+gar) $weet $t+ff) Toke) Trails) ,hite Lad&) ,hite Powder) Ye&o) Ji*. Hor s(okeable cocaine" 6ase) 6all) 6eat) 6is=+its) 6ones) 6oost) 6o+lders) 6rick) 6+(*) !akes) !as*er) !halk) !ookies) !r+(bs) !+bes) Hatbags) Hreebase) :ra%el) #ardball) #ell) 9ibbles n' 6its) 9r&*tonite) Lo%e) 7oonrocks) N+ggets) Onion) Pebbles) Piedras) Piece) Read& Rock) Roca) RockFsG) Rock $tar) $cott&) $crabble) $(oke #o+se) $tones) Teeth) Tornado. T#E 5O#NNY APPLE$EED OH !RA!9" Oscar Danilo 6landon and his *+r*orted alliance with the !entral Intelligence Agenc& are disc+ssed in great detail) and in a (anner that stirred great contro%ers&) in a three2*art $an 5ose 7erc+r& News series b& :ar& ,ebb) beginning on A+g+st 4M) 4@@A. $ee also Ti( :olden) .Tho+gh E%idence Is Thin) Tale of !.I.A. and Dr+gs #as a Life of Its Own)0 New York Ti(es) October 84) 4@@A< and :ar& ,ebb) Dark Alliance" The !IA) the !ontras) and the !rack !ocaine E/*losion FNew York" $e%en $tories Press) 4@@MG. The .$. De*art(ent of 5+stice later e/a(ined the (atter in detail in .The !.I.A.N!ontraN!rack !ocaine !ontro%ers&" A Re%iew of the 5+stice De*art(ent's In%estigations and Prosec+tions)0 a%ailable as of this writing at www.+sdoE.go%LoigLs*ecialL@K48LchB4*4.ht(. :AN:$ IN A7ERI!A" $ee Hrederick Thrasher) The :ang F!hicago" ni%ersit& of !hicago Press) 4@8KG.

T#E $#RIN9IN: OH >ARIO $ 6LA!92,#ITE :AP$) PRE2!RA!9" $ee Rebecca 6lank) .An O%er%iew of $ocial and Econo(ic Trends 6& Race)0 in A(erica 6eco(ing" Racial Trends and Their !onse=+ences) ed. Neil 5. $(elser) ,illia( 5+li+s ,ilson) and Haith 7itchell F,ashington) D.!." National Acade(& Press) 8BB4G) **. 84N?B. L 44; Regarding black infant (ortalit&) see Do+glas >. Al(ond) 9enneth Y. !ha&) and 7ichael :reenstone) .!i%il Rights) the ,ar on Po%ert&) and 6lack2,hite !on%ergence in Infant 7ortalit& in 7ississi**i)0 National 6+rea+ of Econo(ic Research working *a*er) 8BB;. T#E >ARIO $ DE$TR !TI>E EHHE!T$ OH !RA!9 are disc+ssed in Roland :. Hr&er 5r.) Pa+l #eaton) $te%en D. Le%itt) and 9e%in 7+r*h&) .The I(*act of !rack !ocaine)0 8BBD. ?. ,#ERE #A>E ALL T#E !RI7INAL$ :ONE3 NI!OLAE !EA 3E$! '$ A6ORTION 6AN" 6ackgro+nd infor(ation on Ro(ania and the !ea+3esc+s was drawn fro( a %ariet& of so+rces) incl+ding .Eastern E+ro*e) the Third !o((+nis()0 Ti(e) 7arch 4M) 4@AA< .!ea+sesc+ R+led with an Iron :ri*)0 ,ashington Post) Dece(ber 8A) 4@M@< Ral*h 6l+(enthal) .The !ea+3esc+s" 8? Years of Hierce Re*ression) Isolation and Inde*endence)0 New York Ti(es) Dece(ber 8A) 4@M@< $erge $ch(e(ann) .In !radle of R+(anian Re%olt) Anger Q+ickl& O%erca(e Hear)0 New York Ti(es) Dece(ber ;B) 4@M@< 9aren 6resla+) .O%er*lanned Parenthood" !ea+3esc+'s !r+el Law)0 Newsweek) 5an+ar& 88) 4@@B< and Nicolas #ol(an) .The Econo(ic Legac& of !ea+3esc+)0 $t+dent Econo(ic Re%iew) 4@@?. L 44M The link between the Ro(anian abortion ban and life o+tco(es has been e/*lored in a *air of *a*ers" !ristian Po*2Eleches) .The I(*act of an Abortion 6an on $ocio2Econo(ic O+tco(es of !hildren" E%idence fro( Ro(ania)0 !ol+(bia ni%ersit& working *a*er) 8BB8< ni%ersit& of !hicago working *a*er)

and !ristian Po*2Eleches) .The $+**l& of 6irth !ontrol 7ethods) Ed+cation and Hertilit&" E%idence fro( Ro(ania)0 !ol+(bia working *a*er) 8BB8. T#E :REAT A7ERI!AN !RI7E DROP" As noted earlier) this (aterial is drawn fro( $te%en D. Le%itt) . nderstanding ,h& !ri(e Hell in the 4@@B's" Ho+r Hactors That E/*lain the Decline and $i/ That Do Not)0 5o+rnal of Econo(ic Pers*ecti%es 4M) no. 4 F8BB?G) **. 4A;N@B. L 48B 5a(es Alan Ho/'s .intentional o%erstate(ent0" $ee Torsten O%e) .No $i(*le $ol+tion for $ol%ing >iolent !ri(es)0 Pittsb+rgh Post2:aCette) $e*te(ber 48) 4@@@. POLITI!IAN$ ,ERE :RO,IN: IN!REA$IN:LY $OHTER ON !RI7E" This and a n+(ber of related iss+es are disc+ssed in :ar& $. 6ecker and :+it& Nashat 6ecker) .$tiffer 5ail Ter(s ,ill 7ake :+n(en 7ore :+n2 $h&)0 .#ow to Tackle !ri(e3 Take a To+gh) #ead2On $tance)0 and .The Econo(ic A**roach to Highting !ri(e)0 all in The Econo(ics of Life FNew York" 7c:raw2#ill) 4@@KG) **. 4;DN??< the cha*ters were ada*ted fro( 6+siness ,eek articles b& the sa(e a+thors. IN!REA$ED RELIAN!E ON PRI$ON$" !oncerning the fifteenfold increase in dr+g2cri(e *risoners) see Il&ana 9+Cie(ko and $te%en D. Le%itt) .An E(*irical Anal&sis of I(*risoning Dr+g Offenders)0 5o+rnal of P+blic Econo(ics MM) nos. @N4B F8BB?G) **. 8B?;NAA. L 48; ,hat if we E+st t+rn all the *risoners loose3 $ee ,illia( Nagel) .On 6ehalf of a 7oratori+( on Prison !onstr+ction)0 !ri(e and Delin=+enc& 8; F4@KKG) **. 4D8NK?. L 48; .A**arentl&) it takes a Ph.D-.0" $ee 5ohn 5. DiI+lio 5r.) .Arresting Ideas" To+gher Law Enforce(ent Is Dri%ing Down !ri(e)0 Polic& Re%iew) no. KD FHall 4@@DG. !APITAL P NI$#7ENT" Hor a f+ll re*ort on New York $tate's fail+re to e/ec+te a single cri(inal) see .!a*ital P+nish(ent in New York $tate" rban ni%ersit&

$tatistics fro( Eight Years of Re*resentation) 4@@DN8BB;0 FNew York" The !a*ital Defender Office) A+g+st 8BB;G) which is a%ailable as of this writing at n&cdo.orgLM&r.ht(l. 7ore recentl&) New York's !o+rt of A**eals fo+nd the death *enalt& itself +nconstit+tional) effecti%el& halting all e/ec+tions. L 48D E/ec+ting 4 cri(inal translates into K fewer ho(icides" $ee Isaac Ehrlich) .The Deterrent Effect of !a*ital P+nish(ent" A Q+estion of Life and Death)0 A(erican Econo(ic Re%iew AD F4@KDG) **. ;@KN?4K< and Isaac Ehrlich) .!a*ital P+nish(ent and Deterrence" $o(e H+rther Tho+ghts and E%idence)0 5o+rnal of Political Econo(& MD F4@KKG) **. K?4NMM. L 48D .I no longer shall tinker with the (achiner& of death0" Hro( 5+stice #arr& A. 6lack(+n's dissenting o*inion in a 4@@? $+*re(e !o+rt decision den&ing re%iew of a Te/as death2*enalt& case" !allins %. !ollins) D4B .$. 44?4F4@@?G< cited in !ongressional Q+arterl& Researcher D) no. @ F7arch 4B)4@@DG. It sho+ld be noted that A(erican E+ries also see( to ha%e lost their a**etite for the death *enalt&1in *art) it see(s) beca+se of the fre=+enc& with which innocent *eo*le ha%e been e/ec+ted in recent &ears or e/onerated while on death row. D+ring the 4@@Bs) an a%erage of 8@B cri(inals were gi%en the death sentence each &ear< in the first fo+r &ears of the 8BBBs) that n+(ber had dro**ed to 4K?. $ee Ada( Li*tak) .Hewer Death $entences 6eing I(*osed in $e*te(ber 4D) 8BB?. DO POLI!E A!T ALLY LO,ER !RI7E3 $ee $te%en D. Le%itt) . sing Electoral !&cles in Police #iring to Esti(ate the Effect of Police on !ri(e)0 A(erican Econo(ic Re%iew MK) no. ; F4@@KG) **. 8KBN@B< $te%en D. Le%itt) .,h& Do Increased Arrest Rates A**ear to Red+ce !ri(e" Deterrence) Inca*acitation) or 7eas+re(ent Error30 Econo(ic In=+ir& ;A) no. ; F4@@MG) **. ;D;NK8< and $te%en D. Le%itt) .The Res*onse of !ri(e Re*orting 6eha%ior to !hanges in the $iCe of the Police Horce" I(*lications for $t+dies of Police Effecti%eness sing .$.)0 New York Ti(es)

Re*orted

!ri(e

Data)0

5o+rnal

of

Q+antitati%e

!ri(inolog&

4?

FHebr+ar& 4@@MG) **. A8NM4. L 48K The 4@ABs as a great ti(e to be a cri(inal" $ee :ar& $. 6ecker and :+it& Nashat 6ecker) The Econo(ics of Life FNew York" 7c:raw2#ill) 4@@KG) **. 4?8N?;. NE, YOR9 !ITY_$ !RI7E .7IRA!LE0" The .Athenian *eriod0 =+ote ca(e fro( an a+thor inter%iew with for(er *olice ca*tain ,illia( 5. :orta) one of !o(*$tat's in%entors. L 48M The broken window theor&" $ee 5a(es Q. ,ilson and :eorge L. 9elling) .6roken ,indows" The Police and Neighborhood $afet&)0 Atlantic 7onthl&) 7arch 4@M8. L 4;B 6ratton hiring (ore *olice in Los Angeles" $ee Terr& 7c!arth&) .The :ang 6+ster)0 Ti(e) 5an+ar& 4@) 8BB?. : N LA,$" !oncerning the fact that the nited $tates has (ore g+ns se

than it has ad+lts) see Phili* !ook and 5ens L+dwig) :+ns in A(erica" Res+lts of a !o(*rehensi%e $+r%e& of :+n Ownershi* and F,ashington" Police Ho+ndation) 4@@AG. L 4;4 The g+n2cri(e link" $ee 7ark D+ggan) .7ore :+ns) 7ore !ri(e)0 5o+rnal of Political Econo(& 4B@) no. D F8BB4G) **. 4BMAN444?. L 4;4 :+ns in $witCerland" $ee $te*hen P. #albrook) .Ar(ed to the Teeth) and Hree)0 ,all $treet 5o+rnal E+ro*e) 5+ne ?) 4@@@. L 4;8 The i(*otent 6rad& Act" $ee 5ens L+dwig and Phili* !ook) .#o(icide and $+icide Rates Associated with I(*le(entation of the 6rad& #andg+n >iolence Pre%ention Act)0 5o+rnal of the A(erican 7edical Association 8M?) no. D F8BBBG) **. DMDN @4. L 4;8 Helons b+&ing black2(arket g+ns" $ee 5a(es D. ,right and Peter #. Rossi) Ar(ed and !onsidered Dangero+s" A $+r%e& of Helons and Their Hirear(s F#awthorne) N.Y." Aldine de :r+&ter) 4@MAG. L 4;; The g+n2for2*s&chothera*& swa*" $ee .,ise !li(b2Down) 6ad >eto)0 Los Angeles Ti(es) October D) 4@@?. L 4;; ,h& g+n b+&backs don't work" $ee !. !allahan) H. Ri%era) and T. 9oe*sell) .7one& for :+ns" E%al+ation of the $eattle :+n 6+&26ack Progra()0 P+blic #ealth

Re*orts 4B@) no. ? F4@@?G) **. ?K8NKK< Da%id 9enned&) Anne Piehl) and Anthon& 6raga) .Yo+th >iolence in 6oston" :+n 7arkets) $erio+s Yo+th Offenders) and a se2Red+ction $trateg&)0 Law and !onte(*orar& Proble(s D@ F4@@AG) **. 4?KNM;< and Peter Re+ter and 5enn& 7o+Con) .A+stralia" A 7assi%e 6+&2back of Low2Risk :+ns)0 in E%al+ating :+n Polic&" Effects on !ri(e and >iolence) ed. 5ens L+dwig and Phili* !ook F,ashington) D.!." 6rookings Instit+tion) 8BB;G. L 4;; 5ohn Lott's right2 to2carr& theor&" $ee 5ohn R. Lott 5r. and Da%id 7+stard) .Right2to2!arr& !oncealed :+ns and the I(*ortance of Deterrence)0 5o+rnal of Legal $t+dies 8A F5an+ar& 4@@KG) **. 4NAM< and 5ohn R. Lott 5r.) 7ore :+ns) Less !ri(e" nderstanding !ri(e and :+n !ontrol Laws F!hicago" ni%ersit& of !hicago Press) 4@@MG. L 4;; 5ohn Lott as 7ar& Rosh" $ee 5+lian $ancheC) .The 7&ster& of 7ar& Rosh)0 Reason) 7a& 8BB;< and Richard 7orin) .$cholar In%ents Han to Answer #is !ritics)0 ,ashington Post) Hebr+ar& 4) 8BB;. L 4;;N;? Lott's g+n theor& dis*ro%ed" $ee Ian A&res and 5ohn 5. Donoh+e III) .$hooting Down the R7ore :+ns) Less !ri(e' #&*othesis)0 $tanford Law Re%iew DD F8BB;G) **. 44@;N4;48< and 7ark D+ggan) .7ore :+ns) 7ore !ri(e)0 5o+rnal of Political Econo(& 4B@) no. D F8BB4G) **. 4BMAN444?. T#E 6 R$TIN: OH T#E !RA!9 6 66LE" Hor a disc+ssion of crack's histor& and *artic+lars) see Roland :. Hr&er 5r.) Pa+l #eaton) $te%en Le%itt) and 9e%in 7+r*h&) .The I(*act of !rack !ocaine)0 ni%ersit& of !hicago working *a*er) 8BBD. L 4;? 8D *ercent of ho(icides" $ee Pa+l 5. :oldstein) #enr& #. 6rownstein) Patrick 5. R&an) and Patricia A. 6ell+cci) .!rack and #o(icide in New York !it&" A !ase $t+d& in the E*ide(iolog& of >iolence)0 in !rack in A(erica" De(on Dr+gs and $ocial 5+stice) ed. !raig Rein2ar(an and #arr& :. Le%ine F6erkele&" ni%ersit& of !alifornia Press) 4@@KG) **. 44;N;B.

T#E .A:IN: POP LATION0 T#EORY" $ee $te%en D. Le%itt) .The Li(ited Role of !hanging Age $tr+ct+re in E/*laining Aggregate !ri(e Rates)0 !ri(inolog& ;K) no. ; F4@@@G) **. DM4N@@. Altho+gh the aging theor& has b& now been widel& disco+nted) learned e/*erts contin+e to float it< see 7atthew L. ,ald) .7ost !ri(es of >iolence and Pro*ert& #o%er at ;B2Year Low)0 New York Ti(es) $e*te(ber 4;) 8BB?) in which Lawrence A. :reenfield) director of the 6+rea+ of 5+stice $tatistics) sa&s) .There is *robabl& no single factor e/*lanation for wh& the cri(e rates ha%e been going down all these &ears and are now at the lowest le%el since we started (eas+ring the( in 4@K;. It *robabl& has to do with de(ogra*hics) and it *robabl& has to do with ha%ing a lot of %er& high2rate offenders behind bars.0 L 4;D .There l+rks a clo+d0" $ee 5a(es Q. ,ilson) .!ri(e and P+blic Polic&0 in !ri(e) ed. 5a(es Q. ,ilson and 5oan Petersilia F$an Hrancisco" I!$ Press) 4@@DG) *. DBK. T#E A6ORTION2!RI7E LIN9" Hor an o%er%iew) see 5ohn 5. Donoh+e III and $te%en D. Le%itt) .The I(*act of LegaliCed Abortion on !ri(e)0 Q+arterl& 5o+rnal of Econo(ics 44A) no. 8 F8BB4G) **. ;K@N?8B< and 5ohn 5. Donoh+e III and $te%en D. Le%itt) .H+rther E%idence That LegaliCed Abortion Lowered !ri(e" A Res*onse to 5o&ce)0 5o+rnal of #+(an Reso+rces ;@) no. 4 F8BB?G) **. 8@N?@. L 4;A Abortion st+dies in Eastern E+ro*e and $candina%ia" $ee P. 9. Dagg) .The Ps&chological $e=+elae of Thera*e+tic Abortion1Denied and !o(*leted)0 A(erican 5o+rnal of Ps&chiatr& 4?M) no. D F7a& 4@@4G) **. DKMNMD< and #enr& Da%id) Jdenek D&tr&ch) et al.) 6orn o*inion" Roe %. ,ade) ?4B Do+glas $taiger) nwanted" De%elo*(ental Effects of Denied Abortion FNew York" $*ringer) 4@MMG. L 4;K The Roe %. ,ade .$. 44; F4@K;G. L 4;M One st+d& has shown LegaliCation and !hild Li%ing that the t&*ical child" $ee 5onathan :r+ber) Phili* P. Le%ine) and .Abortion !irc+(stances" ,ho Is the R7arginal !hild3'0 Q+arterl& 5o+rnal of Econo(ics 44? F4@@@G) **. 8A;N@4. L 4;M $trongest *redictors of a

cri(inal f+t+re" $ee Rolf Loeber and 7agda $to+tha(er2Loeber) .Ha(il& Hactors as !orrelates and Predictors of 5+%enile !ond+ct Proble(s and Delin=+enc&)0 !ri(e and 5+stice) %ol. K) ed. 7ichael Tonr& and Nor%al 7orris F!hicago" ni%ersit& of !hicago Press) 4@MAG< ni%ersit& also) Robert $a(*son and 5ohn La+b) !ri(e in the 7aking" Pathwa&s and T+rning Points Thro+gh Life F!a(bridge) 7ass." #ar%ard Press) 4@@;G. L 4;@ $o does ha%ing a teenage (other" $ee ,illia( $. !o(anor and Llad Philli*s) .The I(*act of Inco(e and Ha(il& $tr+ct+re on Delin=+enc&)0 ni%ersit& of !aliforniaN$anta 6arbara working *a*er) 4@@@. L 4;@ Another st+d& has shown that low (aternal ed+cation" PiEkko Rasanen et al.) .7aternal $(oking D+ring Pregnanc& and Risk of !ri(inal 6eha%ior A(ong Ad+lt 7ale Offs*ring in the Northern Hinland 4@AA 6irth !ohort)0 A(erican 5o+rnal of Ps&chiatr& 4DA F4@@@G) **. MDKNA8. L 4;@ Infanticide fell dra(aticall&" $ee $+san $orenson) Do+glas ,iebe) and Richard 6erk) .LegaliCed Abortion and the #o(icide of Yo+ng !hildren" An E(*irical In%estigation)0 Anal&ses of $ocial Iss+es and P+blic Polic& 8) no. 4 F8BB8G) **. 8;@NDA. L 4?4 $t+dies of A+stralia and !anada" $ee Anind&a $en) .Does Increased Abortion Lead to Lower !ri(e3 E%al+ating the Relationshi* between !ri(e) Abortion) and Hertilit&)0 +n*+blished (an+scri*t< and Andrew Leigh and 5+stin ,olfers) .Abortion and !ri(e)0 AQ" 5o+rnal of !onte(*orar& Anal&sis K8) no. ? F8BBBG) **. 8MN;B. L 4?4 7an& of the aborted bab& girls" $ee 5ohn 5. Donoh+e III) 5effre& :rogger) and $te%en D. Le%itt) .The I(*act of LegaliCed Abortion on Teen !hildbearing)0 ni%ersit& of !hicago working *a*er) 8BB8. L 4?8 Abortion worse than sla%er&" $ee 7ichael $. Pa+lsen) .Acc+sing 5+stice" $o(e >ariations on the The(es of Robert 7. !o%er's 5+stice Acc+sed)0 5o+rnal of Law and Religion K) no. ;; F4@M@G) **. ;;N@K. L 4?8 Abortion as .the onl& effecti%e cri(e2*re%ention de%ice0" $ee Anthon& >. 6o+Ca) The Police 7&sti=+e" An Insider's Look at !o*s) !ri(e) and the !ri(inal 5+stice $&ste( FNew York" Plen+() 4@@BG. L 4?8 I@ (illion to sa%e a s*otted

owl" $ee :ardner 7. 6rown and 5ason H. $hogren) .Econo(ics of the Endangered $*ecies Act)0 5o+rnal of Econo(ic Pers*ecti%es 48) no. ; F4@@MG) **. ;N8B. L 4?8 I;4 to *re%ent another E//on >aldeC Nt&*e s*ill" $ee :lenn ,. #arrison) .Assessing Da(ages for the E//on >aldeC Oil $*ill)0 ni%ersit& of !entral Hlorida working *a*er) 8BB?. L 4?8N?; 6od&2*art *rice list" Drawn fro( the state of !onnectic+t's ,orkers' !o(*ensation Infor(ation Packet) *. 8K) a%ailable as of this writing at wcc.state.ct.+sLdownloadL acrobatLinfo2*acket.*df. D. ,#AT 7A9E$ A PERHE!T PARENT3 T#E E>ER !#AN:IN: ,I$DO7 OH PARENTIN: EXPERT$" Ann #+lbert) Raising A(erica" E/*erts) Parents) and a !ent+r& of Ad%ice Abo+t !hildren FNew York" 9no*f) 8BB;G is an e/tre(el& hel*f+l co(*endi+( of *arenting ad%ice. L 4?M :ar& ECCo's .infant2(anage(ent strateg&0 and slee* de*ri%ation warning" $ee :ar& ECCo and Robert 6+ckna() On 6eco(ing 6ab&wise F$isters) Ore." 7+ltno(ah) 4@@DG) **. ;8 and D;. L 4?M T. 6err& 6raCelton and the .interacti%e0 child" T. 6err& 6raCelton) Infants and 7others" Difference in De%elo*(ent) re%. ed. FNew York" DeltaL$e&(o+r Lawrence) 4@M;G) *. //iii. L 4?M L. E((ett #olt's warning against .+nd+e sti(+lation0" L. E((ett #olt) The #a**& 6ab& FNew York" Dodd) 7ead) 4@8?G) *. K. L 4?M !r&ing as .the bab&'s e/ercise0" L. E((ett #olt) The !are and Heeding of !hildren" A !atechis( for the se of 7others and !hildren's N+rses FNew York" A**leton) 4M@?G) *. D;. A : N OR A $,I77IN: POOL3 $ee $te%en Le%itt) .Pools 7ore Dangero+s than :+ns)0 !hicago $+n2Ti(es) 5+l& 8M) 8BB4. PETER $AND7AN ON 7AD2!O, DI$EA$E AND OT#ER RI$9$" $ee A(anda #esser) .$=+eak& !lean3 Not E%en !lose)0 New York Ti(es)

5an+ar& 8M) 8BB?< and .The Peter $and(an Risk !o((+nication ,eb $ite0 at htt*"LL www.*sand(an.co(Linde/.ht(. #O, 7 !# DO PARENT$ REALLY 7ATTER3 $ee 5+dith Rich #arris) The N+rt+re Ass+(*tion" ,h& !hildren T+rn O+t the ,a& The& Do FNew York" Hree Press) 4@@MG< for a #arris *rofile that also *ro%ides an e/cellent re%iew of the nat+re2n+rt+re debate) see 7alcol( :ladwell) .Do Parents 7atter30 The New Yorker) A+g+st 4K) 4@@M< and !arol Ta%ris) .Peer Press+re)0 New York Ti(es 6ook Re%iew) $e*te(ber 4;) 4@@M. L 4DD .R#ere we go again'0" $ee Ta%ris) New York Ti(es. L 4DD Pinker called #arris's %iews .(ind2boggling0" $te%en Pinker) .$ibling Ri%alr&" ,h& the Nat+reLN+rt+re Debate ,on't :o Awa&)0 6oston :lobe) October 4;) 8BB8) ada*ted fro( $te%en Pinker) The 6lank $late" The 7odern Denial of #+(an Nat+re FNew York" >iking) 8BB8G. $!#OOL !#OI!E IN !#I!A:O" This (aterial is drawn fro( 5+lie 6err& !+llen) 6rian 5acob) and $te%en D. Le%itt) .The I(*act of $chool !hoice on $t+dent O+tco(es" An Anal&sis of the !hicago P+blic $chools)0 5o+rnal of P+blic Econo(ics) forthco(ing< and 5+lie 6err& !+llen) 6rian 5acob) and $te%en D. Le%itt) .The Effect of $chool !hoice on $t+dent O+tco(es" E%idence fro( Rando(iCed Lotteries)0 National 6+rea+ of Econo(ic Research working *a*er) 8BB;. $T DENT$ ,#O ARRI>E AT #I:# $!#OOL NOT PREPARED TO DO #I:# $!#OOL ,OR9" $ee Ta(ar Lewin) .7ore $t+dents Passing Regents) b+t Achie%e(ent :a* Persists)0 New York Ti(es) 7arch 4M) 8BB?. T#E 6LA!92,#ITE IN!O7E :AP TRA!ED TO EI:#T#2:RADE TE$T $!ORE :AP" $ee Derek Neal and ,illia( R. 5ohnson) .The Role of Pre2 7arket Hactors in 6lack2,hite ,age Differences)0 5o+rnal of Political Econo(& 4B? F4@@AG) **. MA@N@D< and 5+ne O'Neill) .The Role of #+(an !a*ital in Earnings Differences 6etween 6lack and ,hite 7en)0

5o+rnal of Econo(ic Pers*ecti%es ?) no. ? F4@@BG) **. 8DN?A. L 4AB .Red+cing the black2white test score ga*0" $ee !hristo*her 5encks and 7eredith Philli*s) .A(erica's Ne/t Achie%e(ent Test" !losing the 6lack2,hite Test $core :a*)0 A(erican Pros*ect ?B F$e*te(berN October 4@@MG) **. ??ND;. 4AB .A!TIN: ,#ITE0" $ee Da%id A+sten2$(ith and Roland :. Hr&er 5r.) .The Econo(ics of RActing ,hite)'0 National 6+rea+ of Econo(ic Research working *a*er) 8BB;. L 4AB 9aree( Abd+l25abbar" 9aree( Abd+l25abbar and Peter 9nobler) :iant $te*s FNew York" 6anta() 4@M;G) *. 4A. T#E 6LA!92,#ITE TE$T $!ORE :AP AND T#E E!L$" This (aterial was drawn fro( Roland :. Hr&er 5r. and $te%en D. Le%itt) . nderstanding the 6lack2,hite Test $core :a* in the Hirst Two Years of $chool)0 The Re%iew of Econo(ics and $tatistics MA) no. 8 F8BB?G) **. ??KN?A?. ,hile this *a*er contains little disc+ssion of the correlation between test scores and ho(e2based factors Ftele%ision %iewing) s*anking) etc.G) a regression of those data is incl+ded in the *a*er's a**endi/. Regarding the E!L$ st+d& itself" as of this writing) an o%er%iew of the st+d& was *osted at nces.ed.go%LeclsL. ADOPTI>E PARENT$ ,IT# #I:#ER IQ$ T#AN 6IRT# 7OT#ER" $ee 6r+ce $acerdote) .The Nat+re and N+rt+re of Econo(ic O+tco(es)0 National 6+rea+ of Econo(ic Research working *a*er) 8BBB. HINNI$# LITERA!Y" $ee LiCette Al%areC) .Ed+cators Hlocking to Hinland) Land of Literate !hildren)0 New York Ti(es) A*ril @) 8BB?. A 6OO9 HOR E>ERY TOT" $ee 5ohn 9eil(an) .:o%ernor ,ants 6ooks for Tots< 9ids ,o+ld :et AB b& Age D in Effort to 6oost Literac&)0 !hicago Trib+ne) 5an+ar& 48) 8BB?.

T#E INHL EN!E OH ADOPTI>E PARENT$" $ee $acerdote) .The Nat+re and N+rt+re of Econo(ic O+tco(es.0 A. PERHE!T PARENTIN:) PART II< OR" ,O LD A RO$#ANDA 6Y ANY OT#ER NA7E $7ELL A$ $,EET3 T#E $TORY OH LO$ER LANE" Drawn fro( a+thor inter%iews and fro( $ean :ardiner) .,inner and Loser" Na(es Don't Decide Destin&)0 Newsda&) 5+l& 88) 8BB8. T#E 5 D:E AND T#E TE7PTRE$$" 6ased on a+thor inter%iews. ROLAND :. HRYER AND T#E $T DY OH 6LA!9 Drawn fro( a+thor inter%iews. T#E 6LA!92,#ITE !I:ARETTE :AP" $ee Llo&d 5ohnston) Patrick O'7alle&) 5erald 6ach(an) and 5ohn $ch+lenberg) .!igarette 6rand Preferences A(ong Adolescents)0 7onitoring the H+t+re Occasional Pa*er ?D) Instit+te for $ocial Research) ni%ersit& of 7ichigan) 4@@@. NDERA!#IE>E7ENT"

6LA!9 NA7E$ FAND OT#ER 6LA!92,#ITE ! LT RE :AP$G" $ee Roland :. Hr&er 5r. and $te%en D. Le%itt) .The !a+ses and !onse=+ences of Distincti%el& 6lack Na(es)0 Q+arterl& 5o+rnal of Econo(ics 44@) no. ; FA+g+st 8BB?G) **. KAKNMBD. .,#ITE0 R`$ 7`$ 6EATIN: O T .6LA!90 R`$ 7`$" The (ost recent a+dit st+d& to reach s+ch a concl+sion is 7arianne 6ertrand and $endhil 7+llainathan) .Are E(il& and :reg 7ore E(*lo&able than Lakisha and 5a(al3 A Hield E/*eri(ent E%idence on Labor 7arket Discri(ination)0 National 6+rea+ of Econo(ic Research working *a*er) 8BB;.

YO XIN: #EYNO A : $T $ EI$NER ALEXANDER ,EI$ER 9N !9LE$ 5ERE7I5EN9O2!ONLEY" $ee Tara 6ahra(*o+r) .A 6o& Na(ed Yo) Etc." Na(e !hanges) 6oth Practical and Hancif+l) Are on the Rise)0 New York Ti(es) $e*te(ber 8D) 8BB;. 7I!#AEL :OLD6ER:) INDIAN26ORN $I9#" $ee Robert H. ,orth) .Li%er& Dri%er Is ,o+nded in a $hooting)0 New York Ti(es) Hebr+ar& @) 8BB?. ,ILLIA7 7ORRI$) N` JEL7AN 7O$E$" A+thor inter%iew with Alan 9annof) for(er chief o*erating officer of the ,illia( 7orris Agenc&. 6RAND NA7E$ A$ HIR$T NA7E$" Drawn fro( !alifornia birth2certificate data and also disc+ssed in $te*hanie 9ang) .Na(ing the 6ab&" Parents 6rand Their Tot with ,hat's #ot)0 ,all $treet 5o+rnal) Dece(ber 8A) 8BB;. A :IRL NA7ED $#IT#EAD" The wo(an who called the radio show to tell Roland Hr&er abo+t her niece $hithead (ight ha%e been (isinfor(ed) of co+rse) or e%en o+tright l&ing. Regardless) she was hardl& alone in her feeling that black na(es so(eti(es go too far. 6ill !osb&) d+ring a s*eech in 7a& 8BB? at the NAA!P's 6rown %. 6oard of Ed+cation fiftieth2anni%ersar& gala) la(basted lower2inco(e blacks for a %ariet& of self2destr+cti%e beha%iors) incl+ding the gi%ing of .ghetto0 na(es. !osb& was s+((aril& e/coriated b& white and black critics alike. F$ee 6arbara Ehrenreich) .The New !osb& 9ids)0 New York Ti(es) 5+l& M) 8BB?< and Debra Dickerson) .A(erica's :randdad :ets Orner&)0 $late) 5+l& 4;) 8BB?.G $oon after) the !alifornia ed+cation secretar&) Richard Riordan1the wealth&) white for(er (a&or of Los Angeles1fo+nd hi(self +nder attack for a *ercei%ed racial slight. F$ee Ti( R+tten) .Riordan $t+ng b& R:otcha' News)0 Los Angeles Ti(es) 5+l& 4B) 8BB?.G Riordan) %isiting a $anta 6arbara librar& to *ro(ote a reading *rogra() (et a si/2&ear2old girl na(ed Isis. $he told Riordan that her na(e

(eant .Eg&*tian *rincess0< Riordan) tr&ing to (ake a Eoke) re*lied) .It (eans st+*id) dirt& girl.0 The res+ltant o+trage led black acti%ists to call for Riordan's resignation. 7er%&n D&(all&) a black asse(bl&(an fro( !o(*ton) e/*lained that Isis was .a little African2A(erican girl. ,o+ld he ha%e done that to a white girl30 As it t+rned o+t) howe%er) Isis was white. $o(e acti%ists tried to kee* the anti2Riordan *rotest ali%e) b+t Isis's (other) Trinit&) enco+raged e%er&one to rela/. #er da+ghter) she e/*lained) hadn't taken Riordan's Eoke serio+sl&. .I got the i(*ression)0 Trinit& said) .that she didn't think he was %er& bright.0 ORAN:E5ELLO AND LE7ON5ELLO" Altho+gh these na(es ha%e the whiff of +rban legend abo+t the(1the& are) in fact) disc+ssed on a %ariet& of web2sites that dis*el For *ass alongG +rban legends1the a+thors learned of the e/istence of Orange5ello and Le(on5ello fro( Do+g 7cAda() a sociologist at $tanford twin bo&s in a grocer& store. A 7 !# LON:ER LI$T OH :IRL$' AND 6OY$' NA7E$" #ere lies an arbitrar& collection of na(es that are interesting) *rett&) +nco((on) %er& co((on) or so(ehow =+intessential) along with the le%el of ed+cation that the& signif&. FEach na(e occ+rs at least ten ti(es in the !alifornia na(es data.G ni%ersit&) who swears he (et the

$O7E :IRL$' NA7E$ FYears of (other's ed+cation in *arenthesesG Abigail F4?.K8G) Adelaide F4D.;;G) Alessandra F4D.4@G) Ale/andra F4?.AKG) Alice F4?.;BG) Alison F4?.M8G) Allison F4?.D?G) A(alia F4D.8DG) A(anda F4;.;BG) A(ber F48.A?G) A(& F4?.B@G) Anabelle F4?.AMG) Anastasia F4;.@MG) Angelina F48.K?G) Annabel F4D.?BG) Anne F4D.?@G)

An&a F4?.@KG) Ashle& F48.M@G) A+t+(n F48.MAG) A%a F4?.@KG) ACiCa F44.D8G) 6aile& F4;.M;G) 6eatrice F4?.K?G) 6eatriC F44.?8G) 6elinda F48.K@G) 6ett& F44.DBG) 6reanna F48.K4G) 6ritt F4D.;@G) 6rittan& F48.MKG) 6ronte F4?.?8G) 6rookl&n F4;.DBG) 6rookl&nne F4;.4BG) !aitlin F4?.;AG) !aitl&nn F4;.B;G) !a((ie F48.BBG) !a(*bell F4D.A@G) !arl& F4?.8DG) !ar(ella F4?.8DG) !assandra F4;.;MG) !assid& F4;.MAG) !ate F4D.8;G) !athleen F4?.;4G) !ecilia F4?.;AG) !hanel F4;.BBG) !haris(a F4;.MDG) !harlotte F4?.@MG) !hastit&\ F4B.AAG) !herokee F44.MAG) !hloe F4?.D8G) !hristina F4;.D@G) !iara F4;.?BG) !ierra F48.@KG) !ordelia F4D.4@G) !o+rtne& F4;.DDG) !ri(son F44.D;G) !&nthia F48.K@G) Dahlia F4?.@?G) Danielle F4;.A@G) Da*hne F4?.?8G) Darlene F48.88G) Dawn F48.K4G) Deborah F4;.KBG) Dece(ber F48.BBG) Delilah F4;.BBG) Denise F48.K4G) DeniC F4D.8KG) Desiree F48.A8G) Destin& F44.ADG) Dia(ond F44.KBG) Diana F4;.D?G) Diane F4?.4BG) Dora F4?.;4G) Eden F4?.?4G) Eileen F4?.A@G) Ekaterina F4D.B@G) EliCabeth F4?.8DG) EliCabethann F48.?AG) Ella F4D.;BG) Ellen F4D.4KG) E(erald F4;.4KG) E(il& F4?.4KG) E((a F4D.8;G) Haith F4;.;@G) Hlorence F4?.M;G) Hrancesca F4?.MBG) Hrankie F48.D8G) HranCiska F4D.4MG) :abrielle F4?.8AG) :ennifer F4?.KDG) :eorgia F4?.M8G) :eraldine F44.M;G) :inger F4;.D?G) :race F4D.B;G) :racie F4;.M4G) :retchen F4?.@4G) :w&neth F4D.B?G) #ale& F4;.M?G) #alle F4?.MAG) #annah F4?.??G) #ilar& F4?.D@G) #illar& F4;.@?G) Ilana F4D.M;G) Ilene F4;.D@G) Indigo F4?.;MG) Isabel F4D.;4G) Isabell F4;.DBG) I%& F4;.?;G) 5ac=+elin F48.KMG) 5ac=+eline F4?.?BG) 5ade F4;.B?G) 5a(ie F4;.D8G) 5ane F4D.48G) 5anet F48.@?G) 5eanette F4;.?;G) 5eannette F4;.MAG) 5e((a F4D.B?G) 5ennifer F4;.KKG) 5ohanna F4?.KAG) 5ordan F4;.MDG) 5o&ce F48.MBG) 5+liet F4?.@AG) 9aile& F4;.KAG) 9ara F4;.@DG) 9arissa F4;.BDG) 9ate F4D.8;G) 9atel&nne F48.ADG) 9atherine F4?.@DG) 9a&la F48.@AG) 9else& F4?.4KG) 9endra F4;.A;G) 9enned& F4?.4KG) 9i(ia F4D.AAG) 9&lie F4;.M;G) Laci F48.?4G) Ladonna F44.ABG) La+ren F4?.DMG) Leah F4?.;BG) Lenora F4;.8AG) Le/ington F4;.??G) Le/+s F48.DDG) Libert& F4;.;AG) Liesl F4D.?8G) Lil& F4?.M?G) Linda F48.KAG) Linden F4D.@?G) LiCabeth F4;.?8G)

LiCbeth F@.AAG) L+cia F4;.D@G) L+cille F4?.KAG) L+c& F4D.B4G) L&dia F4?.?BG) 7ac9enCie F4?.??G) 7adeline F4D.48G) 7adison F4?.4;G) 7and& F4;.BBG) 7ara F4D.;;G) 7argaret F4D.4?G) 7ariah F4;.BBG) 7ar& F4?.8BG) 7atisse F4D.;AG) 7a&a F4D.8AG) 7eadow F48.ADG) 7egan F4;.@@G) 7elanie F4;.@BG) 7eredith F4D.DKG) 7ichaela F4?.4;G) 7icheala F48.@DG) 7illicent F4?.A4G) 7oll& F4?.M?G) 7ontana F4;.KBG) Nao(i F4?.BDG) Nasee( F4D.8;G) Natalie F4?.DMG) Ne%ada F4?.A4G) Nicole F4;.KKG) Nora F4?.MMG) Oli%e F4D.A?G) Oli%ia F4?.K@G) Paige F4?.B?G) Paisle& F4;.M?G) Paris F4;.K4G) Patience F44.MBG) Pearl F4;.?MG) Penelo*e F4?.D;G) Phoebe F4D.4MG) Phoeni/ F4;.8MG) Ph&llis F44.@;G) Portia F4D.B;G) Precio+s F44.;BG) Q+inn F4D.8BG) Rachel F4?.D4G) Rachell F44.KAG) Rebecca F4?.BDG) Renee F4;.K@G) Rhiannon F4;.4AG) Rikki F48.D?G) Ronnie F48.K8G) Rosalind F4D.8AG) R+b& F4?.8AG) $abrina F4;.;4G) $adie F4;.A@G) $a(antha F4;.;KG) $arah F4?.4AG) $asha F4?.88G) $a&eh F4D.8DG) $carlett F4;.ABG) $el(a F48.KMG) $e*te(ber F48.MBG) $hannon F4?.44G) $ha&la F48.KKG) $ha&na F4?.BBG) $helb& F4;.?8G) $herri F48.;8G) $hira F4D.ABG) $hirle& F48.?@G) $i(one F4?.@AG) $iobhan F4?.MMG) $k&l&nn F48.A4G) $ol%eig F4?.;AG) $o*hie F4D.?DG) $tac& F4;.BMG) $te*hanie F4;.?DG) $te%ie F48.AKG) $tor( F48.;4G) $+nshine F48.B;G) $+san F4;.K;G) $+Canne F4?.;KG) $%etlana F44.ADG) Tabitha F48.?@G) Talia F4D.8KG) Tall+lah F4?.MMG) Tatiana F4?.?8G) Tat+( F4?.8DG) Ta&lor F4;.ADG) Tess F4?.M;G) Tia F48.@;G) Tiffan& F48.?@G) Trac& F4;.DBG) Trinit& F48.ABG) Tr+d& F4?.MMG) >anessa F48.@?G) >en+s F48.K;G) >eronica F4;.M;G) >eroni=+e F4D.MBG) >iolet F4;.K8G) ,hitne& F4;.K@G) ,illow F4;.M;G) Yael F4D.DDG) Yas2(ine F4?.4BG) Y%onne F4;.B8G) and Joe F4D.B;G.

$O7E 6OY$' NA7E$ FYears of (other's ed+cation in *arenthesesG

Aaron F4;.K?G) Abdelrah(an F4?.BMG) Ace F48.;@G) Ada( F4?.BKG) Aidan F4D.;DG) Ale/ander F4?.?@G) Alistair F4D.;?G) Andrew F4?.4@G) Aristotle F4?.8BG) Ashle& F48.@DG) Attic+s F4?.@KG) 6a&lor F4?.M?G) 6Eorn F4D.48G) 6lane F4;.DDG) 6l+e F4;.MDG) 6rian F4;.@8G) 6+ck F48.M4G) 6+d F48.84G) 6+dd& F44.@DG) !aleb F4;.@4G) !all+( F4D.8BG) !arter F4?.@MG) !hai( F4?.A;G) !hrist F44.DBG) !hristian F4;.DDG) !l&de F48.@?G) !oo*er F4?.@AG) Dakota F48.@8G) Daniel F4?.B4G) Dashiell F4D.8AG) Da%id F4;.KKG) DeniC F4D.ADG) D&lan F4;.DMG) Ea(on F4D.;@G) Elton F48.8;G) E(il F4?.BDG) Eric F4?.B8G) Hinn F4D.MKG) Horrest F4;.KDG) Hranklin F4;.DDG) :abriel F4?.;@G) :ar& F48.DAG) :iancarlo F4D.BDG) :i+se**e F4;.8?G) :ra&don F4D.D4G) :+sta%o F44.AMG) #ashe( F48.KAG) #+gh F4?.ABG) #+go F4;.BBG) Idean F4?.;DG) Indiana F4;.MBG) Isaiah F4;.48G) 5ackson F4D.88G) 5acob F4;.KAG) 5agger F4;.8KG) 5a(ieson F4D.4;G) 5edidiah F4?.BAG) 5effre& F4;.MMG) 5ere(& F4;.?AG) 5es+s FM.K4G) 5ihad F44.ABG) 5ohan F4D.44G) 5ohn2Pa+l F4?.88G) 5onathan F4;.MAG) 5ordan F4;.K;G) 5orge F4B.?@G) 5osh+a F4;.?@G) 5osiah F4;.@MG) 5+les F4D.?MG) 5+stice F48.?DG) 9ai F4?.MDG) 9ean+ F4;.4KG) 9eller F4D.BKG) 9e%in F4?.B;G) 9ieron F4?.BBG) 9obe F4;.48G) 9ra(er F4?.MBG) 9+rt F4?.;;G) Lachlan F4D.ABG) Lars F4D.B@G) Leo F4?.KAG) Le% F4?.;DG) Lincoln F4?.MKG) Lonn& F44.@;G) L+ca F4;.DAG) 7alcol( F4?.MBG) 7ar%in F44.MAG) 7a/ F4?.@;G) 7a/i(ilian F4D.4KG) 7ichael F4;.AAG) 7ichelangelo F4D.DMG) 7iro F4D.BBG) 7oha((ad F48.?DG) 7oises F@.A@G) 7oses F4;.44G) 7oshe F4?.?4G) 7+ha((ad F4;.84G) 7+stafa F4;.MDG) Nathaniel F4?.4;G) Nicholas F4?.B8G) Noah F4?.?DG) Nor(an F48.@BG) Oli%er F4D.4?G) Orlando F48.K8G) Otto F4;.K;G) Parker F4?.A@G) Parsa F4D.88G) Patrick F4?.8DG) Pa+l F4?.4;G) Peter F4D.BBG) Phili* F4?.M8G) Phili**e F4D.A4G) Phoeni/ F4;.BMG) Presle& F48.AMG) Q+entin F4;.M?G) Ral*h F4;.?DG) Ra*hael F4?.A;G) Reagan F4?.@8G) Re/ F4;.KKG) Re/ford F4?.M@G) Rocco F4;.AMG) Rock& F44.?KG) Roland F4;.@DG) Ro(ain F4D.A@G) Ro&ce F4;.K;G) R+ssell F4;.AMG) R&an F4?.B?G) $age F4;.A;G) $aleh F4B.4DG) $atchel F4D.D8G) $ch+&ler F4?.K;G) $ean F4?.48G) $e=+oia F4;.4DG) $ergei

F4?.8MG) $ergio F44.@8G) $hawn F48.K8G) $helb& F48.MMG) $i(on F4?.K?G) $later F4?.A8G) $olo(on F4?.8BG) $*encer F4?.D;G) $te*hen F4?.B4G) $tetson F48.@BG) $te%en F4;.;4G) Tanner F4;.M8G) Tari= F4;.4AG) Tenn&son F4D.A;G) Terence F4?.;AG) Terr& F48.4AG) Thadde+s F4?.DAG) Theodore F4?.A4G) Tho(as F4?.BMG) Ti(oth& F4;.DMG) Tob& F4;.8?G) Trace F4?.B@G) Tre%or F4;.M@G) Tristan F4;.@DG) Tro& F4;.D8G) F4?.8DG) l&sses riel F4D.BBG) >alentino F48.8DG) >irgil F44.MKG) >ladi(ir

F4;.;KG) ,alker F4?.KDG) ,hitne& F4D.DMG) ,ille( F4D.;MG) ,illia( F4?.4KG) ,illie F48.48G) ,inston F4D.BKG) Xa%ier F4;.;KG) Yasser F4?.8DG) Jachar& F4?.B8G) Jachor& F44.@8G) Jane F4;.@;G) and Jeb+lon F4D.BBG. 7O$T POP LAR ,#ITE :IRL NA7E$) 4@AB AND 8BBB" The !alifornia na(es data act+all& begin in 4@A4) b+t the &ear2to2&ear difference is negligible. $#IRLEY TE7PLE A$ $Y7PTO7) NOT !A $E" $ee $tanle& Lieberson) A 7atter of Taste" #ow Na(es) Hashions) and !+lt+re !hange FNew #a%en) !onn." Yale ni%ersit& Press) 8BBBG. A #ar%ard sociologist) Lieberson is the acknowledged (aster of Fa(ong other s+bEectsG the acade(ic st+d& of na(es. Hor instance) A 7atter of Taste details how) fro( 4@AB) it was A(erican 5ewish fa(ilies who first *o*+lariCed (an& girls' na(es FA(&) Danielle) Erica) 5ennifer) 5essica) 7elissa) Rachel) Rebecca) $arah) $tac&) $te*hanie) Trac&G while onl& a handf+l FAshle&) 9ell&) and 9i(berl&G began in non25ewish fa(ilies. Another good disc+ssion of na(ing habits can be fo+nd in Pegg& Orenstein) .,here #a%e All the Lisas :one30 New York Ti(es 7agaCine) 5+l& A) 8BB;< and) if onl& for entertain(ent) see The $weetest $o+nd F8BB4G) Alan 6erliner's doc+(entar& fil( abo+t na(es. 6OY$' NA7E$ 6E!O7IN: :IRL$' NA7E$ F6 T NOT >I!E >ER$AG" This obser%ation is drawn fro( the work of !le%eland 9ent E%ans) a *s&chologist and ono(astician at 6elle%+e ni%ersit& in 6elle%+e)

Nebraska. A sa(*le of E%ans's work is a%ailable as of this writing at acade(ic.belle%+e.ed+L a!9E%ansLce%ans.ht(l< see also !le%eland 9ent E%ans) The lti(ate n+s+al ] 7ost Po*+lar 6ab& Na(es FLincolnwood) Ill." 6ab& Na(e 6ook FLincoln2wood) Ill." P+blications P+blications InternationalL$ignet) 4@@?G< and !le%eland 9ent E%ans) InternationalLPl+(e) 4@@KG. EPILO: E. T,O PAT#$ TO #AR>ARD T#E ,#ITE 6OY ,#O :RE, P O T$IDE !#I!A:O" This *assage) as

well as the earlier *assage abo+t the sa(e bo& on **. 4DDNDA) was drawn fro( a+thor inter%iews and fro( Ted 9acC&nski) Tr+th >ers+s Lies) +n*+blished (an+scri*t) 4@@M< see also $te*hen 5. D+bner) .I Don't ,ant to Li%e Long. I ,o+ld Rather :et the Death Penalt& than $*end the Rest of 7& Life in Prison)0 Ti(e) October 4M) 4@@@. T#E 6LA!9 6OY HRO7 DAYTONA 6EA!#" This *assage) as well as the earlier *assage abo+t the sa(e bo& on *. 4DA) were drawn fro( a+thor inter%iews with Roland :. Hr&er 5r.

ACKNO.#E!3MEN'S
5ointl&) we wo+ld like to thank two *eo*le who hel*ed n+rt+re this book" !laire ,achtel of ,illia( 7orrow and $+Canne :l+ck of the ,illia( 7orris Agenc&. This is the third book that $te*hen D+bner has written +nder their a+s*ices< he contin+es to be gratef+l and) on occasion) awestr+ck. This was the first s+ch book for $te%en Le%itt< he has been d+l& i(*ressed. 7an& thanks also to the talented and s+**orti%e colleag+es in each sho*" 7ichael 7orrison) !ath& #e((ing) Lisa :allagher) Debbie $tier) Dee Dee De 6artlo) :eorge 6ick) 6rian 7c$harr&) 5ennifer Poole&) 9e%in !allahan) Trent D+ff&) and (an& others at ,illia( 7orrow< Trac& Hisher) 9aren :erwin) Erin 7alone)

!andace Hinn) Andi 7cNichol) and (an& others at the ,illia( 7orris Agenc&. ,e wo+ld also like to thank the %ario+s s+bEects of this book Fes*eciall& $tetson 9enned&) Pa+l Held(an) $+dhir >enkatesh) Arne D+ncan) and Roland Hr&erG for their ti(e and tro+ble. Thanks also to the friends and colleag+es who hel*ed i(*ro%e the (an+scri*t) incl+ding 7elanie Thernstro() Lisa !hase) and !olin !a(erer. And to Linda 5ines) who ca(e +* with the title" nicel& done. PER$ONAL A!9NO,LED:7ENT$ I owe an enor(o+s debt to (& (an& co2a+thors and colleag+es) whose great ideas fill this book) and to all the kind *eo*le who ha%e taken the ti(e to teach (e what I know abo+t econo(ics and life. I a( es*eciall& gratef+l to the ni%ersit& of !hicago) whose Initiati%e on !hicago Price Theor& *ro%ides (e the ideal research ho(e< and also to the A(erican 6ar Ho+ndation for its collegialit& and s+**ort. 7& wife) 5eannette) and o+r children) A(anda) Oli%ia) Nicholas) and $o*hie) (ake e%er& da& a Eo&) e%en tho+gh we (iss Andrew so (+ch. I thank (& *arents) who showed (e it was oka& to be different. 7ost of all) I want to thank (& good friend and co2a+thor $te*hen D+bner) who is a brilliant writer and a creati%e geni+s. 1$. D. L. I ha%e &et to write a book that did not ger(inate) or was not at least bro+ght along) in the *ages of the New York Ti(es 7agaCine. This one is no e/ce*tion. Hor that I thank #+go Lindgren) Ada( 7oss) and :err& 7arCorati< also) thanks to >era Tit+nik and Pa+l To+gh for in%iting the 6agel 7an into the 7agaCine's *ages. I a( (ost gratef+l to $te%en Le%itt) who is so cle%er and wise and e%en kind as to (ake (e wish1 well) al(ost1that I had beco(e an econo(ist (&self. Now I know wh& half the *rofession drea(s of ha%ing an adEoining office to Le%itt. And

finall&) as alwa&s) thanks and lo%e to Ellen) $olo(on) and An&a. $ee &o+ at dinnerti(e. 1$. 5. D.

A&out the Author

$te%en D. Le%itt teaches econo(ics at the to the best A(erican econo(ist +nder fort&. ni%ersit& of !hicago< he

recentl& recei%ed the 5ohn 6ates !lark 7edal) awarded e%er& two &ears

$te*hen 5. D+bner li%es in New York !it&< he writes for the New York Ti(es and The New Yorker and is the national bestselling a+thor of Turbulent Souls and Confessions of a Hero-Worshiper. To recei%e notice of a+thor e%ents and new books b& $te%en D. Le%itt and $te*hen 5. D+bner) sign +* at www.a+thortracker.co(.

Credits
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