The Shape of Patterns to Come: From Initial Formation to Long-Term Evolution

A. Brad Murray*1, Evan B. Goldstein1, Giovanni Coco2

1

Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment; Center for Nonlinear and Complex Systems, Duke University, Box 90227, Durham, NC 27708
2

Environmental Hydraulics Institute, IH Cantabria, c /Isabel Torres n 15., Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain 39011. *corresponding author: abmurray@duke.edu

This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1002/esp.3487

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Abstract Many studies focus on the emergence and development of rhythmic landscape patterns. In this contribution we explore the different behaviors found as patterns evolve; the trajectories that patterns exhibit as they transit from infinitesimal-amplitude perturbation to a statistically steady state (or in some cases to continued statistical evolution). The variety of behaviors observed, either through field and laboratory experiments or numerical modeling, can be reduced to four classes: a) simple stabilization where predictions based on the initial growth of small perturbations corresponds with the characteristics of patterns observed in nature; b) significant pattern coarsening en route to saturated wavelength, where nonlinear interactions between finite-amplitude pattern elements change the geometric properties of a pattern as it approaches steady-state; c) perpetual coarsening where the wavelength associated with the emerging pattern continues to grow over time and is only limited by physical boundaries or external constrains; d) slow evolution toward a different attractor, a novel behavior observed in numerical modeling that involves profound temporal changes in pattern characteristics. Within these classes we also observe generalizable nonlinear behaviors: dependence on initial conditions, the emergence of pattern-scale variables such as pattern defects, and the presence of multiple stable states. Predicting the shape of patterns to come remains a challengeone that we suggest requires a range of modeling approaches to address both initial instabilities and the emergent properties of evolving patterns, which involve disparate forms of nonlinear interactions. Consideration of generic system behaviors at the pattern scale could enhance future pattern formation studies, facilitating appropriate pairings of analysis approaches and pattern-evolution modes.

Keywords: Pattern Formation, Nonlinear Dynamics, Emergent Phenomena

Introduction In recent decades, Earth-surface-process researchers have made great progress in understanding the origins of many landscape shapes and patterns using the perspectives of nonlinear dynamics and complex systems. Advances in our understanding of pattern formation processes span many scalesfrom centimeters for the smallest eolian or subaqueous bedforms (e.g., Anderson, 1990; Traykovski et al., 1999) to hundreds of kilometers for river networks (e.g., Rodriguez-Iturbe and Rinaldo, 1997) or sandy coastline shapes (e.g., Ashton et al, 2001)and these advances apply to widely ranging environments including arctic and alpine settings, (e.g., Kessler et al. 2001, Kessler and Werner, 2003), deserts (Werner, 1995; Durn and Hermann, 2006; Baas and Nield, 2007; Elbelrhiti et al., 2008), and beaches and seabeds (e.g., Blondeaux, 1990; Coco et al., 2003; van Enckevort et al., 2003; Murray and Thieler, 2004; Besio et al., 1996; Calvete et al., 2001). Many of these recent insights come from morphodynamic studies, which address the evolution of patterns by accounting for the couplings between fluid flow, sediment flux, and the shape of a sedimentary bed. These studies typically start with simplified descriptions (analytical or numerical) of how fluid flow is altered by a small-amplitude perturbation (infinitesimal amplitude when linear stability analysis is employed) to an initially smooth situation (e.g. a flat sedimentary bed). The pattern of sediment flux

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responds in turn to the perturbed flow, leading to divergences and convergences in the sediment flux, resulting finally in the amplification or damping of the initial morphologic perturbations. In the simplest cases, the flow field in the unperturbed case is unidirectional and uniform, although morphodynamic analyses have also been profitably used to address pattern formation in more complicated cases, for example, tidal flow fields (e.g., Hulscher et al., 1993; van der Wegen and Roelvink, 2008; van der Wegen et al., 2010), or wave-driven nearshore currents (e.g., Falqus et al., 2000). Using the perspectives of complex systems modeling, looking for relatively simple interactions that emerge at different hierarchical scales (Werner 1999; Murray 2003 and 2007; Paola, 2000), the morphodynamic approach has been applied to pattern formation on scales larger than a uniform flow field applies, for example coastline evolution on scales much larger than the scales of the wave-driven alongshore currents that advect sediment (e.g., Ashton et al., 2001; Ashton and Murray 2006a; Calvete and de Swart, 2003; Cherlet et al., 2007). Many pattern-formation studies address only the initial stability or instability of a systemwhether infinitesimal amplitude perturbation will grow, and if so how rapidly, and what scale (wavelength) will exhibit the fastest growth (e.g., Dodd et al., 2003). For some systems, answering these questions, typically using a linear or weakly nonlinear stability analysis, tells most of the patternformation story; as the amplitude of the pattern increases, negative feedbacks prevent further growth in wavelength and therefore the characteristics of the original pattern are retained. However, in many systems, the most interesting part of the pattern formation story begins after the initial instability; as individual elements of the pattern attain finite amplitude, they begin to interact with each other in ways that lead to significant changes in scale, and possibly to qualitative changes in pattern characteristics. For these types of systems, the characteristics of the attractor that the system dynamics ultimately lead toi.e. the spatial pattern and temporal behaviors we observe in naturearise from a combination of the initial instability and the subsequent finite-amplitude interactions and associated self-organization processes. Here we will categorize finite-amplitude pattern formation into four modes: A) simple stabilization (little change after the initial instability phase); B) significant pattern coarsening and morphologic change en route to a saturated wavelength; C) perpetual coarsening; and D) slow evolution toward a qualitatively different attractor. In the following section we elaborate on these categories and discuss selective examples. We will focus here on rhythmic, repetitive patterns, although the distinction between simple stabilization and finite-amplitude effects causing subsequent increases in scale can also be applied to landscape systems in which instabilities lead to the emergence of isolated features, such as tors in arid (Strudley et al., 2006) or peri-glacial (Anderson, 2002) environments and headlands on rocky coastlines (Limber and Murray, 2011). In addition, we will implicitly assume constant, uniform forcing, and simple initial conditions. In the Discussion section we will touch on issues related to pattern formation that can be important when forcing conditions are not constant (e.g. hysteresis, multiple stable states), and when characteristics of a pattern depend on the initial conditions. Bifurcations in behavior that can occur as key system parameters (e.g. a bed friction parameter; Schramkowski et al., 2004) are adjusted can display nonlinear behavior, including changes in pattern characteristics or shifts from a uniform to a patterned state. However, here will address temporal pattern evolution assuming key parameters are constant.

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Finally, in any particular location, the simple interactions that tend to lead to the emergence of organized patterns inevitably interact with site-specific factors including heterogeneities in the substrate and complicated boundary conditions (e.g., Phillips, 2007), and possibly non-uniform forcing. However, examining the interactions between a minimal set of variables and processes, without trying to reproduce all the details operating in any particular location can advance our understanding of the generic causes of types of landscape patterns (Murray, 2003). We will focus on the lessons from such generic investigations. Although our examples of the different patternevolution modes include field observations, many of our examples come from examining the results of analytical and numerical models. The behaviors exhibited in the models may in some cases not occur in Earth-surface analog systems. Of course, modeling studies are employed in attempts to understand the mechanisms that produce the patterns we see in nature; to help distinguish which patterns arise from the similar or analogous interactions, and to elucidate what those interactions are. In this sense, critically comparing model behaviors to observations in nature represents a critical, though challenging, aspect of addressing the origin of interesting patterns (e.g. Murray 2003; 2007). However, for the purposes of this consideration of pattern-evolution modes, as we argue in the Discussion section, the models themselves can be considered pattern-forming systems that broaden the range of pattern evolution examples we can use in constructing our classification. Pattern Evolution Modes A) Simple Stabilization In this mode, a negative feedback becomes stronger with increasing amplitude rapidly enough that the amplitude approaches a steady state before the wavelength of the pattern changes significantly from the one that developed initially. In the common cases of topographic bedforms (whether eolian or subaqueous), as the amplitude increases, interactions between the bedform and the flow field change (associated with nonlinear terms in the equations for amplitude growth), causing the maximum in sediment flux to shift toward the topographic crest. Growth rates approach zero as the flux maximum approaches the crest. In addition, for some bedforms, as topographic slopes increase, the gravitationally driven component to the sediment flux becomes more important, as nonlinearities in the flux-slope relationship become increasingly strong; avalanching can ultimately contribute to limiting bedform aspect ratio. This pattern formation model is either explicitly or implicitly assumed in analytical or numerical stability analysis. Because it is widely acknowledged, we will not dwell on this mode further, beyond providing an interesting example from the modeling of sea-bed sand waves using linear stability analysis. This pattern formation mode could in fact be related to linear stability studies where the infinitesimal (in amplitude) growth of the patterns is analyzed and compared to the finite-amplitude patterns observed in the field. The model by Hulscher and van den Brink (2001) was the first to test the agreement between the model predictions (based on a linear stability analysis) and field observations. Besio et al. (2006) and Cherlet et al. (2007) extended the comparison of crest orientation and sand wave wavelength to other sites along the Belgian coast. The model also indicated conditions under which the seabed is stable and no sand wave develops. Recently, the same model has been further modified to include biological effects which can affect the geometric characteristics of the emergent pattern and its growth, and can provoke growth of bedforms on otherwise stable seabeds (Borsje et al., 2009).

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B) Significant Coarsening en Route to Saturated Wavelength In many cases, as a pattern attains finite amplitude, new forms of interaction emerge between pattern elements (e.g. individual bedforms). These interactions cause the spatial scale of the pattern to increase, through the loss of pattern elements. This pattern-coarsening frequently results in a more organized and coherent final pattern. Interactions between pattern elements can arise from various mechanisms, perhaps most commonly including mergers and screening interactions. The translation velocity of pattern elements often depends on their size; smaller elements often translate more rapidly, and thus catch up with their larger neighbors. If two elements merge when they collideas is the case for bedforms with slip faces (e.g. eolian ripples or many sub-aqueous bedforms)each collision reduces the number of elements and consequently increases the average wavelength (e.g. as modeled by Werner and Gillespie, 1993). In screening interactions, one pattern element affects the fluid flow and/or sediment flux pattern for some distance downstream. This disruption of flow and transport has consequences for any bedform within the screened area. An example comes from subaqueous dunes, which create a flow separation bubble in their wake. Where fluid flow eventually reconnects to the bed a zone of erosion results, inhibiting the formation or continued existence of another bedform in the region (e.g., Nelson and Smith, 1989). In the familiar case of eolian ripples, mergers are greatly facilitated by the presence of defects in the pattern: the lateral termination or bifurcation of ripple crests (Figure 1a). Crest amplitude decreases near a defect, which causes terminations to move rapidly and merge with a continuous crest downstream, resulting in the lateral migration of bifurcations through the pattern. As defects migrate through a pattern, bedform crest length decreases, corresponding to an increase in the average wavelength, as Werner and Kocurek (1997; 1999) showed analytically. The loss of defects as they encounter each other and annihilate increases the degree of organization of the pattern (Figure 1b). Anyone who has watched a sand bed as the wind starts blowing from a new direction will recall that initially the pattern starts out relatively loosely organized, with laterally short crest segments (Figure 1c). However, as the density of defects decreases the pattern approaches the classic highly organized arrangement featured in so many photographs (e.g. Figure 1d). Once the defects have been lost in a region, further mergers become very rare because, as Werner and Gillespie (1993) modeled, a screening interaction tends to prevent similar-sized crests from catching each other,. Observations show that wavelengths of eolian ripples can increase by up to an order of magnitude between the first appearance of dimples in the sand and the stabilization of a nearly defect free ripple field (unpublished field observations; Andreotti et al., 2006). Increase in wavelength has also been observed in laboratory studies dealing with bedform formation under unidirectional (Coleman et al., 2005; Fourrire et al. 2010) and oscillatory (Faraci and Foti, 2001) flow conditions. Coarsening is not restricted to small scale bedforms. Beach cusps provide another iconic example (Figure 2a,b). Numerical modeling results indicate that as topographic perturbations on an initially approximately planar beach grow from an initial feedback with the waves washing over them, nascent cusps divert flow to their sides, creating a screening interaction between neighbors. Modeling of the initial instability and subsequent finite-amplitude interactions shows an initially disorganized pattern transforming into one with a larger and more regular spacing between surviving features; the screening interaction destroys some features and shifts others laterally to

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more favorable positions (Werner and Fink, 1993; Coco et al., 2000; Figure 2c). In this example, the wavelength saturates when all the remaining features are just far enough away from their neighbors to avoid each others screening effects, a behavior also observed in the field (Almar et al., 2008). Other nearshore bedforms exhibit increases in alongshore wavelength; numerically modeled transverse and crescentic sandbars in the surf zone show a factor of five (or larger) increase between initial and saturated wavelengths (Garnier et al. 2006; Garnier et al., 2008). Changes in the alongshore wavelength of crescentic sandbars or rip channels have also been observed in the field (van Enckevort et al., 2003). Further offshore, the formation of sand waves and sand banks has been simulated showing the presence on nonlinear behavior leading to a final configuration characterized by larger wavelength (Komarova and Newell, 2000). Finally, numerical modeling of shorefaceconnected ridges, large scale bedforms that develop in the inner shelf, shows that they have a different, larger saturated wavelength than the initial one (Calvete and de Swart, 2003).

In all of these representative examples, the final wavelength depends on both the initially fastest growing wavelength (determined at the initial instability stage) and the finite-amplitude interactions and associated self organization of the final pattern. C) Perpetual Coarsening In some model systems finite-amplitude interactions lead to continual loss of pattern elements and therefore perpetual model coarseningalthough the rate of coarsening typically slows progressively. Continual coarsening can occur through merging of pattern elements. In a model of eolian dunes, because some variations in size and therefore translation velocity always exist when more than one dune is present, merging continues until only one dune remains in the domain (Figure 3). Observations of eolian dune fields suggest that as existing pattern elements merge with each other, new dunes are being created if the space between extant dunes (and their respective screening zones) is sufficiently large to contain the initial fastest growing wavelength. This ultimately results in continual dune merging and the emergence of ever larger structures within the field (Andreotti et al., 2009). However, in the case of eolian dunes, a constraint from outside of the dune system, imposed by the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer above, ultimately squashes structures that develop sufficiently large wavelengths (reducing their amplitudes toward zero as wavelength increases beyond a limit related to the thickness of the boundary layer; Andreotti et al., 2009). For the case of surfzone megaripples, observations (Clarke and Werner, 2004) and numerical modeling (Gallagher, 2011) indicate that, under regular forcing, the growth of bedform wavelength and amplitude is limited spatially by water depth and limited temporally by tidal oscillations and swash. Limits to pattern coarsening in these cases are developed by external constraints (size of atmospheric boundary layer; tidal range), as opposed to internal pattern scale constraints (e.g., number of defects) Similar dynamics occur in a model of shallow-seabed sorted bedforms (discussed further in the next sub section), whenever the mean current is either unidirectional or asymmetrically reversing (Murray and Thieler, 2004, Coco et al., 2007b). Such currents give individual bedforms a net translation. In this case, translation velocity is determined primarily by bed composition (rather than

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topographic amplitude). However, as in the case of dunes, as long as variation in the amplitude of sediment-composition sorting exists among multiple features, mergers will reduce their number. Cuspate-cape coastline patterns provide a contrasting example. In a numerical model, even when the forcing is symmetric (in this case equal wave influences on alongshore sediment transport from left and right, looking offshore), so that individual pattern elements do not exhibit a net alongshore translation, perpetual coarsening still occurs (Ashton et al., 2001; Ashton and Murray, 2006a). This comes about through a screening interaction with a length scale that effectively increases with the scale of the pattern. When a plan-view coastline feature protrudes in the cross-shore direction, it will block adjacent shoreline segments from some of the wave-approach directionsespecially waves approaching from highly oblique angles, which are critical to the growth of the features. Thus, when a large feature (large cross-shore amplitude) shadows some of the most oblique waves that would have otherwise hit a neighboring feature, the smaller neighboring cape experiences a reduction in cross-shore amplitude relative to the larger one. Thus, the screening interaction increases in strength. This feedback ultimately leads to the disappearance of the smaller neighbor, and a subsequent adjustment in the size and location of the surviving larger neighbor. After that, the screening interaction continues between the surviving features, and as long as size variation exists among them, the screening feedback leads to further loss of capes and increase in the average wavelength (Ashton and Murray, 2006a). When a screening interaction has a well-defined length scale, as in the case for example of beach cusps, that length scale determines the saturated wavelength of the pattern. However, in the case of modeled cuspate capes, the alongshore length scale of the screening increases with the amplitude of the pattern elements, which in turn increases with the alongshore wavelength of the pattern and exhibits a self similarity in cross/alongshore aspect ratio (Figure 4). D) Slow Evolution Toward a Different Attractor A single model system motivates our inclusion of this category. Sorted bedforms are spatial extensive (100 m to km scale) features present on many inner continental shelves with a subtle bathymetric relief (cm-m scale) and sudden variations in grain size. Research suggests these features are a consequence of a sediment sorting feedback as opposed to the more familiar flow-bathymetry interaction (Murray and Thieler, 2004, Coco et al., 2007a,b; Van Oyen et al., 2010, 2011). Large wave generated ripples in coarse sediment domains function as large roughness elements, generating large scale turbulence that is able to suspend fine sediment. As fine sediment deposition is therefore limited or nonexistent on coarse sediment domains, there is preferential deposition of fine material only over fine domains where ripples and the resulting turbulence is smaller Recent numerical experiments have shown, however, that the sorting feedback may not be robust in the long term. Coco et al. (2007) looked at time horizons of model days to weeks, but by extending this time horizon to model years and decades new patterns emerge (Goldstein et al., 2011). Over these long time scales coarse sediment is buried through an autogenic process of vertical sorting. Translation of the pattern in the direction of daily current reversals results in the burial of coarse sediment as coarse material is less mobile than fine material. Daily variation in current magnitude results in the change in vertical relief of bedforms. Since coarse domains are located in the bedform trough and updrift flank, changes in relief tend to bury predominantly coarse material, following periods of high relief and therefore deep troughs. Furthermore, pattern defects that propagate

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through the bedform field result in the burial of coarse material. The loss of coarse sediment results in the loss of large ripples and the strong turbulence that enables the sorting feedback. A seabed that continually decreases in coarseness results in smaller ripples that do not prohibit fine sediment deposition. This results in a reverse sorting process and the eventual loss of coarse domains. Yet this process does not result in the destruction of all coarse domains. Instead the seabed bulk composition slowly converges to a new attracting state of self-organized spatial intermittency. Pattern intermittency has been observed previously in mathematical models of eolian ripples and dunes (Nishimori and Ouchi, 1993). The new attracting state of sorted bedform spatial intermittency is invariant for a wide range of initial seabed coarsenessinitial conditions that produce different initial patterns (short-term attractors) (Figure 5). Under different forcing conditions, this long-term attracting state is modified; Under strong wave forcing, patterns may completely disappear. With net aggradation of coarse and fine material (or erosion of fine material) the spatially intermittent pattern is also temporally intermittent with the destruction and creation of individual coarse domains. Recurring storm events with high waves revive the sorting feedback and result in the temporary development of a more spatially consistent pattern. The interplay of these scenarios lead to rich spatial and temporal dynamics. Discussion The vast majority of the results presented in the previous sections have been obtained under regular forcing (e.g., constant monochromatic waves drive sandbar patterns in the surf zone). Such an assumption can simplify the analytical or numerical solution of the system of equations describing the system, and can enhance the clarity of the resulting potential insightsbut it is at odds with the variability observed in nature. Studies have addressed this issue for a variety of bedforms, using diverse modeling techniques. Coco et al. (2000) show that a decrease in the regularity of swash forcing leads to a loss of regularity in beach-cusp patterns, up to the point when the randomness in the forcing overwhelms the self-organization processes and no pattern develops. In the surf zone, Castelle and Ruessink (2011) have shown that time-varying forcing (specifically the angle of wave approach) affects the formation of rip channels and the final spacing of alongshore bars. Large changes in the angle of wave approach result in less developed morphology and more irregular spacing between the rip channels, and in increasing nonlinear behavior (e.g., merging of rip channels). Further offshore, Coco et al., (2007b) show that changes in the forcing conditions lead to loss of pattern regularity in sorted bedforms. The irregularity does not necessarily need to be in the forcing conditions, but could also be applied to the initial bathymetry. The presence of a single bathymetric anomaly or irregularity in the seabed has been explored by Castelle et al. (2012) for the case of surf zone morphodynamics, specifically rip channel development. The presence of a bathymetric anomaly (a bump or a trough) affects the both the nonlinear evolution of the features and, surprisingly, numerical simulations show that a large bathymetric anomaly can change the wavelength of the pattern developing down- or up-current. Similarly, Roos and Hulscher (2004 and 2008, but also see Blondeaux and Vittori, 2008) use linear stability analysis to explore the morphodynamic impact of wide and shallow perturbations (representative of large-scale offshore sand extraction). Results of the analysis shows that small and medium scale pits can trigger the formation of sand waves (Blondeaux and Vittori, 2005) while huge pits can trigger the formation of sand banks (Roos and Hulscher, 2008). These studies deal with infinitesimal perturbations and

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neglect nonlinear effects so that no insight can be gained on the evolution of these perturbations and the mechanism leading to their steady state. Another different aspect of the nonlinear evolution of rhythmic patterns relates to changes in forcing conditions once a pattern is present. Once a pattern has emerged, the finite-amplitude interactions between pattern elements alter the system, and the predictions/results obtained starting from a smooth initial condition (e.g., a planar bed) might not apply anymore. Coco et al. (2000) initially elucidated this for beach cusps, documenting the range of changes in forcing conditions in a model over which an initial cuspate field dominates persists (which is a function of the size of the bedforms). A much more thorough analysis was presented for the case of vortex ripples (Hansen et al., 2001a, 2001b) where the whole stability balloon was identified using a set of laboratory experiments. Results indicated that pre-existing ripples can be stable over a range of forcing conditions, but that outside that range a strongly nonlinear behavior is observed, with different results depending on whether the forcing strength increased or decreased. Andreotti et al. (2006) found analogous behavior for wind ripples in a wind tunnel. Similar results have been found for other bedforms: sorted bedforms (Huntley et al., 2008), and crescentic sandbars (Tiessen et al., 2011). The implications of this mix of laboratory and numerical studies is in line with findings from a variety of other natural systems (see Perron and Fagherazzi, 2011, and references therein), showing that initial conditions might limit the range of possible system behavior, and strongly affect the trajectories of pattern evolution. In these examples, the memory of any previous forcing condition can become frozen into the pattern (for some range of subsequent deviations from that forcing), with a continuous range of possible pattern characteristics (e.g., wavelengths). Although similar, where multiple stable states exist over a range of forcing conditions, a system can fall into a discrete set of attracting states, with a hysteresis that favors the state developed under a previous forcing condition (for which it was the sole stable state). However, in all of the cases where the sequence of forcing conditions affects the pattern characteristics, finite-amplitude interactions can be as important as the initial instability in determining pattern characteristics; Our proposed classification of pattern-evolution modes could provide a useful perspective even when variable forcing conditions are an important aspect of pattern formation. Because we focus on generic processes and interactions (rather than site-specific factors), and because of the difficulties of separating the effects of internal system dynamics from the heterogeneous influences of external factors in field studies, we have concentrated largely on modeling studies. Some of the pattern formation modes and examples we discuss here are strictly model phenomena, without direct counterparts in the natural world. For example, perpetual coarsening will not occur in nature; constraints related to the size of the system will prevent it, either through dynamical effects (such as those arising from the finite thickness of the atmospheric boundary layer) or through the finite size of natural domains. However, the models themselves can be viewed as systems that exhibit these behaviors, and the basic insights regarding different types of pattern-formation trajectories are still instructive. For example, a model exhibiting perpetual coarsening can suggest that a finite final wavelength in nature does not arise from the internal dynamics of the system of interest.

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This consideration of a possible categorization of pattern-evolution modes presents implications for modeling strategies. For type A) systems, with simple finite-amplitude stabilization, analytical linear stability analyses may be sufficient to understand the essence of the system behaviors. However, addressing the finite-amplitude, nonlinear interactions important in the other system types (B), C), and D)) requires numerical modeling. Numerical models can be constructed at a level of detail and simplification consistent with analytical approaches, however, so that moving to a numerical approach does not necessarily imply a loss of clarity of potential model-generated insight (Werner, 1999; Murray 2003, 2007). In addition, when addressing systems in which finite-amplitude interactions combine with the initial instability in producing the scale and shape of the pattern (types B), C), and D)), it can improve the clarity of the finite-amplitude self-organizing interactions to use multiple models, with differing scales of process resolution and different levels of simplification: One model can address the processes leading to the initial instabilitywhich often involve resolving interactions on scales somewhat smaller than those of the emergent patternwhile a complementary model that assumes the instability (including it as a hard-wired outcome rather than a process to be understood) addresses the finite-amplitude interactions that shape the pattern at a scale more commensurate with the pattern itself. For example, Kessler et al. (2001) elucidated the cause of the instability leading to arctic and alpine sorted patterned ground, with a model resolving cm-scale ice lenses, while Kessler and Werner (2003) followed up with a more abstracted model of the larger-scale interactions between adjacent domains of mud and stones that are assumed to result from the instability, and which most directly explain the various shapes of sorted patterns. When researching pattern formation processes, clearly distinguishing the types of questions of interestinitial instability or subsequent nonlinear pattern evolutionwill help in selecting the most appropriate modeling approach or approaches.

However, the utility of this categorization of pattern evolution modes for model selection can be limited by the difficulty of knowing at the start of an investigation which mode the system will exhibit. Sometimes, observations of natural examples will provide guidance. In the case of wind ripples, for example, the pronounced coarsening and apparent stabilization of wavelength (under a given wind condition) suggest type B. However, an apparently stable spatial scale could well be a coarsening on a longer timescale within a type C system (or slow evolution to a different attractor, type D). This possibility becomes more difficult to rule out as the temporal scale of pattern evolution (typically linked to spatial scales) becomes long relative to the timescale of human observation (or at least typical scientific studies). For example, cuspate coastal capes on the scale of 100s of km may have attained a stable wavelength, or they may be evolving on a millennial timescale (as is suggested by evidence for an additional cape along the Carolina coastline earlier in the Holocene sea-level high stand; Thieler and Ashton, 2011). Similarly, estuarine channel network patterns can appear to be in a stable state, although long numerical model runs suggest that such systems will slowly deepena process ending only when channel depths become so great that sediment fluxes vanish (van der Wegen and Roelvink, 2008; van der Wegen et al., 2010). Using numerical models, we can in principle be more confident about the long term behavior than we can based on observations of nature; model runs can be extended long enough to gain confidence that the statistics describing a pattern have stabilized, even if continued sediment transport causes continued dynamism in the particular locations of the pattern elements (e.g. Murray and Paola, 1994; 1997). However, a

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slow evolution in a type C or D system can still be misinterpreted. In fact, the numerical behaviors of our type (and sole) example of a type D system, modeled sorted bedforms, were long misinterpreted; we tried to ascribe the pattern break down and development of intermittency to domain-size artifacts for years before recently identifying the domain-sizeindependent mechanisms that inevitably lead to the appearance of the new attractor over a sufficiently long timescale. In summary, although the mode of pattern evolution (and therefore the most useful type of model or combination of model types) will often not be initially obvious, we hope that calling attention to the range of long-term behaviors possible will encourage us all to question implicit assumptions about whether or how much change occurs after the initialinstability stageassumptions that might otherwise limit the range of our understanding of how patterns come to be. Acknowledgments GC funded by the Augusto Gonzalez Linares Program (University of Cantabria), MMC support is also gratefully acknowledged (contract SD20061206). References: Almar, R., Coco, G., Bryan, K.R., Huntley, D.A., Short, A.D. and Senechal, N., 2008. Video observations of beach cusp morphodynamics, Marine Geology, 254, 216-223. Anderson, R.S., 1990. Eolian ripples as examples of self-organization in geomorphological systems, Earth-Science Rev., 29, 77-96. Anderson, R.S., 2002. Modeling the tor-dotted crests, bedrock edges, and parabolic profiles of high alpine surfaces of the Wind River Range, Wyoming: Geomorphology, v.46, p.3558, doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00053-3. Andreotti, B., Claudin, P., Pouliquen, O., 2006. Aeolian sand ripples: experimental study of fully developed states. Physical Review Letters 96. Andreotti, B., Fourriere, A., Ould-Kaddour, F., Murray, B., Claudin, P., 2009. Giant aeolian dune size determined by the average depth of the atmospheric boundary layer. Nature 457, 1120-1123. Ashton, A., Murray, A.B., Arnault, O., 2001. Formation of coastline features by large-scale instabilities induced by high-angle waves. Nature 414, 296-300. Ashton, A.D., Murray, A.B., 2006. High-angle wave instability and emergent shoreline shapes: 1. Modeling of sand waves, flying spits, and capes. Journal of Geophysical Research 111. Baas, A. C. W., Nield, J. M., 2007. Modelling vegetated dune landscapes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06405, doi:10.1029/2006GL029152. Besio, G., Blondeaux, P., and Vittori, G., 2006, On the formation of sand waves and sand banks, Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 557, 1-27. Besio, G., van Lancker, V., Blondeaux, P., Verfaillie, E., Vittori, G., 2007. Sand waves characteristics: Theoretical predictions versus field data. Proceedings of River, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics. Dohmen-Janssen & Hulscher eds. Blondeaux, P., 1990, Sand ripples under sea waves. Part 1. Ripple formation, J. Fluid Mech., 218, 1-17. Blondeaux, P., Vittori, G., 2005. Morphological development of shallow sand pits. Proceedings 29th International Conference Coastal Engineering 2004, 25812593

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Phillips, J.D. 2007. Perfection and complexity in the lower Brazos River, Geomorphology, 91(3-4), 364-377. Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., Rinaldo, A. 1997 Fractal River Networks: Chance and Self-Organization, Cambridge University Press, New York. Roos, P.C., Hulscher, J.M.H., 2004. Large-scale seabed dynamics in offshore morphology: modeling human intervention. Reviews of Geophysics, 41, 2, doi: 10.1029/2002RG000120. Roos, P.C., Hulscher, J.M.H., de Vriend, H.J., 2008. Modelling the morphodynamic impact of offshore sandpit geometries, Coastal Engineering, 55(9), 704715. Strudley, M. W., Murray, A. B., Haff, P. K. 2006. Regolith thickness instability and the formation of tors in arid environments, J. Geophys. Res., 111, F03010, doi:10.1029/2005JF000405. Thieler, E. R., Ashton, A. D., 2011, Cape Capture: Geologic data and modelling results suggest the Holocene loss of a Carolina Cape, Geology 39, 339 342, doi: 10.1130/G31641.1, Tiessen, M. C. H., Dodd, N., Garnier R. 2011. Development of crescentic bars for a periodically perturbed initial bathymetry, J. Geophys. Res., 116, F04016, doi:10.1029/2011JF002069. Traykovski, P., Hay, A.E., Irish, J.D., Lynch, J.F., 1999. Geometry, migration, and evolution of wave orbital ripples at LEO-15, Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, C1, 1505-1524. van Enckevort, I.M.J., Ruessink, B.G., Coco, G., Suzuki, K., Turner, I.L., Plant, N.G., Holman, R.A. 2003. Observations of nearshore crescentic sandbars. J. Geophysical Res., 109(C06028), doi: 10.1029/2003JC002214. Van Oyen, T., de Swart, H. E., Blondeaux, P. 2010. Bottom topography and roughness variations as triggering mechanisms to the formation of sorted bedforms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18401, doi:10.1029/2010GL043793. Van Oyen, T., de Swart, H. E., Blondeaux, P. 2010. Formation of rhythmic sorted bed forms on the continental shelf: an idealised model. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 684, 475-508 doi:10.1017/jfm.2011.312 Van der Wegen, M., Roelvink, J.A., 2008. Long-term morphodynamic evolution of a tidal embayment using a two-dimensional, process-based model. J. Geophys. Res. 113, C03016. doi:10.1029/2006JC003983. Van der Wegen, M, A. Dastgheib, J. A. Roelvink (2010) Morphodynamic modeling of tidal channel evolution in comparison to empirical PA relationship (2010), Coastal Engineering, 57, 827-837 Werner, B.T., 1995, Eolian dunes: Computer simulations and attractor interpretation, Geology, 23, 1107-1110. Werner, B.T., 1999. Complexity in natural landform patterns. Science 284, 102-104. Werner, B.T., Fink, T.M., 1993. Beach cusps as self-organized patterns. Science 260, 968-971. Werner, B.T., and Hallet, B., 1993, Numerical simulation of self-organized stone stripes, Nature, 361,142-145. Werner, B.T., Gillespie, D.T., 1993. Fundamentally discrete stochastic model for wind ripple dynamics. Physical Review Letters 71, 32303233. Werner, B.T., and Kocurek, G., 1997, Bedform dynamics: does the tail wag the dog?, Geology, 25(9), 771-774. Werner, B.T., Kocurek, G., 1999. Bedform spacing from defect dynamics. Geology 27, 727-730.

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Figure 1. a) Defects in an eolian ripple field. b) Two defects that will eventually meet and annihilate. c) A new short crested pattern (crests trending from top left to bottom right) appears when wind direction changes. A previous ripple pattern can be seen (with crests oriented vertically), which corresponds to the previous wind condition. d) A segment of the ripple field shows a highly organized pattern when defects are not present; without defects coarsening tends to cease.

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Figure 2. (a, b) Beach cusps and associated swash circulation at Ohinemaka beach (New Zealand) showing swash flow (a) running up the beach (notice swash interactions at beach cusp horns) and (b) returning as a concentrated flow in correspondence of beach cusp bays. (c) Numerical simulations of beach cusp formation using the model originally presented in Coco et al. (2000). Top panel shows increase in spacing (calculated spectrally as the peak frequency of bed elevations in the center of the area where beach cusp grow). Middle panel shows bed elevations during beach cusp formation. Blue and red lines correspond to the bathymetry after 125 and 950 swash cycles, respectively. Bottom panel shows bed elevations for the whole domain considered in the numerical simulations.

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Figure 3. Numerical simulations of sand dune formation using a numerical code based on Werner (1995). Top panel shows increase in dune spacing as a function of number of slabs moved (a proxy for time). Spacing has been calculated as the peak of the average 1000 spectra of bed elevations to cover the whole domain (each spectra relates to a line of the bed elevation shown in, for example, the bottom panels). Bottom panel shows bedform evolution over time. The numerical simulation has been run using a 1000 x 1000 lattice map and employing periodic boundary conditions. Transport direction is from the left to the right of the bottom panels. Colourbar indicates vertical elevations (corresponding to the number of slabs in the vertical at that cell). The simulation has been stopped when the model domain was occupied by only one crestline (which can be traced from one boundary to the opposite boundary continuously given the periodic boundary conditions) because by that point the pattern has run out of defects and the subsequent dynamics are constrained by the boundary conditions and the small domain size (compared to the spacing of the dune).

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Figure 4. Numerical simulations of plan-view coastline shapescuspate capes formed under symmetrical wave climates (left)and the way the wavelength coarsening scales with time (right). The arrows on the left panel illustrate that neighboring capes can shelter a slightly smaller cape from the most oblique wave-approach angles (t ~ 6 yr), and that consequently the size disparity between the capes increasesand with it the range of waveapproach angles that are screened out for the smaller neighbor (t ~ 11 yr). Ultimately, the wave climate affecting the smaller neighbor loses so many of the highly oblique waves, which create and sustain the pattern, that the small cape diffuses away (t ~ 22 yr). These screening interactions continue to remove capes indefinitely, and arbitrarily large wavelengths can be achieved, limited only by the scale of the domain. (Modified from Ashton and Murray, 2006)

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Figure 5: Numerical experiments of sorted bedform pattern formation using the model of Coco et al. (2007a). Plan view patterns are shown; black and white pixels represent fine and coarse sediment respectively (grey is well mixed). Initial and forcing conditions are 2 m waves, a 0.2 m/s mean current that reverses daily (and daily excursions about the mean). Initial conditions are a flat bed (with 0.01m perturbations), well mixed coarse (0.01 m) and fine sand (0.00015 m) and 20 m of water depth. Each panel represents a different initial percent coarseness of the seabed. Sorting occurs for all initial conditions between 20% and 50% coarse sediment. An initial condition of 60% coarse material does not sort and remains well mixed throughout the duration of the experiment (bottom middle panel). An example of the initial pattern (after the sorting feedback has operated) is shown in the bottom left panel. Eventually all of the scenarios with active sorting collapse onto a single value of bulk seabed coarseness: ~15% (bottom right panel). Top panels show the qualitative similarity between model instantiations with different initial conditions after the attracting value of coarseness is attained; the development of a spatial intermittent pattern.

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