Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
0.956636897
0.915154152
0.864246643
149.9184522
Chart Title
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Observations
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
2004
2005
2006
SS
3 1212115
5 112377.7
8 1324493
Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept 22624.87 1795.206
X Variable 1 -0.00208 0.002776
X Variable 2 -45.7078 11.32857
X Variable 3 12.86356 22.72728
mld. Lei/pers.)
PRECEDENT(%)
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
ObservationPredicted Y
1 22519.14
2 22484.1
3 22392.19
4 22437.42
5 22316.23
Residuals
26.78191
18.70226
65.83331
-2.21408
92.16157
6
7
8
9
22029.93 -235.139
21884.81 -151.251
21620.61 52.71938
21491.44 132.4058
DE ANUL PRECEDENT(%)
100000 200000
X Variable 1
MS
404038.4
22475.54
t Stat
12.60294
-0.74877
-4.03474
0.565997
F
Significance F
17.9768 0.00414
Y
Predicted Y
X Variable 1
23000
22500
22000
21500
21000
0
10
20
30
X Variable 2
23000
22500
22000
Predicted Y
21500
21000
0
50
X Variable100
3
150
40
50
t Plot
Y
Predicted Y
ANUL
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1988
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
0.997674914
0.995355235
0.994426281
37067.50814
13
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
2
10
12
SS
MS
F
Significance F
2.94443E+12 1.47E+12 1071.481 2.16E-12
13740001599 1.37E+09
2.95817E+12
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted Y
Residuals
1 23453.31441 -22595.41441
2 24036.92933 -21833.02933
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
28376.76999
36752.12145
54854.98396
82016.3463
123496.6289
251432.2007
321542.1678
461968.4348
780537.2168
1180834.159
1546380.127
AUTOCORELATIE
PRODUSUL EXPORT
INTERN BRUT
( E ) (PIB)
857.9
2203.9
6029.2
20035.7
49773.2
72135.5
108919.6
252925.7
373798.2
545730
803773.1
1167243
1512257
SUMMARY OUTPUT
143.5
388
1675.6
4611.6
12395.2
19921.3
30651.1
73795.7
87104.5
152902.7
264186.6
329848.1
536051.4
-22347.56999
-16716.42145
-5081.783959
-9880.846295
-14577.02891
1493.499258
52256.03223
83761.5652
23235.88316
-13591.35884
-34123.52666
DURBIN-WATSON
IMPORT ( I )
224.56
474.64
2182.5
5607.5
13421.7
23958.2
39830.8
91661.2
117108.3
179274.5
309437.5
451775.3
623591.5
Residuals
-22595.41441
-21833.02933
-22347.56999
-16716.42145
-5081.783959
-9880.846295
-14577.02891
1493.499258
52256.03223
83761.5652
23235.88316
-13591.35884
-34123.52666
Residu
als e t
-22595.4
-21833
-22347.6
-16716.4
-5081.78
-9880.85
-14577
1493.499
52256.03
83761.57
23235.88
-13591.4
-34123.5
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.997674914
R Square
0.995355235
Adjusted R Square
0.994426281
Standard Error
37067.50814
Observations
13
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
EXPORT ( E )
IMPORT ( I )
SS
2 2.94443E+12
10 13740001599
12 2.95817E+12
MS
F
Significance F
1.47221E+12 1071.481 2.16E-12
1374000160
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
22858.77192 12850.72901 1.778791842 0.105634 -5774.44 51491.98
-0.926817332 0.744735694 -1.244491622 0.241696 -2.58619 0.732557
3.239850259 0.615504427 5.263731855 0.000366 1.868421 4.61128
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT (PIB)Residuals
1
23453.31441 -22595.41441
2
24036.92933 -21833.02933
3
28376.76999 -22347.56999
4
36752.12145 -16716.42145
5
54854.98396 -5081.783959
6
82016.3463 -9880.846295
7
123496.6289 -14577.02891
8
251432.2007 1493.499258
9
321542.1678 52256.03223
10
461968.4348 83761.5652
11
780537.2168 23235.88316
12
1180834.159 -13591.35884
13
1546380.127 -34123.52666
AUTOCORELATIE
PRODUSUL EXPORT
INTERN BRUT
( E ) (PIB)
857.9
2203.9
LAGRANGE MULTIPLIER
143.5
388
IMPORT ( I )
224.56
474.64
Residua
ls et
et-1
0
-22595
-22595.4
-21833
6029.2
20035.7
49773.2
72135.5
108919.6
252925.7
373798.2
545730
803773.1
1167243
1512257
1675.6
4611.6
12395.2
19921.3
30651.1
73795.7
87104.5
152902.7
264186.6
329848.1
536051.4
2182.5
5607.5
13421.7
23958.2
39830.8
91661.2
117108.3
179274.5
309437.5
451775.3
623591.5
-21833
-22348
-16716
-5082
-9881
-14577
1493
52256
83762
23236
-13591
-22347.6
-16716.4
-5081.78
-9880.85
-14577
1493.499
52256.03
83761.57
23235.88
-13591.4
-34123.5
Regression
Chart Title
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
EXPORT ( E )
2002
2004
IMPORT ( I )
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2000000
1500000
1000000
200000
500000
400000
600000
0 X Variable 1
0
200000 400000 600000
ignificance F
X Variable 2
e 2
e 3
Testul Jarque-Bera
2000000
( I ) Line Fit
Plot 6.58701E
IMPORT
1500000
T PRODUSUL
INTERN
2
BRUT
1000000
2000000
S
3
(PIB)
e 2
13740001
e 3 500000e 4 1500000
PRODUSUL
Predicted
PRODUSUL
INTERN
1000000
0
BRUT
(PIB)
INTERN
BRUT
(PIB)
T
0
200000
500000 400000 600000
Upper 95%
51491.98
0.732557
4.61128
Residuals
-22595.4 510552752.4 -1.15362E+13 2.60664E+17 EXPORT
0 (E)
-21833 476681169.6 -1.04074E+13 2.27225E+17
0
400000
e 4800000
INTERN5.92332E
BRUT (PIB)
IMPORT T
(I)
1
2
e 2
137400015
Predicted PRODUSUL
numarat
numit
et - et-1
581231
-514.541
5631.149
11634.64
-4799.06
-4696.18
16070.53
50762.53
31505.53
-60525.7
-36827.2
-20532.2
499413884.6
279438746
25824528.2
97631123.51
212489772
2230540.034
2730692904
7015999804
539906266.3
184725035.1
1164415072
13740001599
-1.11607E+13
-4.67122E+12
-1.31235E+11
-9.64678E+11
-3.09747E+12
3331309886
1.42695E+14
5.87671E+14
1.25452E+13
-2.51066E+12
-3.97339E+13
6.58701E+14
5.06693E+13
2.56738E+27 S=
1.18067E+27
1056923200
K=
(et - et-1)2
3.37829E+11
264752.0985
31709833.97
135364789.5
23030999.31
22054131.19
258261875.7
2576834754
992598607.6
3663358186
1356245753
421569915.5
3.47311E+11
PRODUSUL INTERN
-22347.6
-16716.4
-5081.78
-9880.85
-14577
1493.499
52256.03
83761.57
23235.88
-13591.4
-34123.5
Total
2.49414E+17
7.8086E+16
6.66906E+14
9.53184E+15
4.51519E+16
4.97531E+12
7.45668E+18
4.92243E+19
2.91499E+17
3.41233E+16
1.35586E+18
5.92332E+19
INTERN5.92332E
800000
BRUT (PIB)
1
2
2
137400015
13
JB
2.174503749
1.39399E+54
13
( 2 . 174503749
6
4.5564E+18
1.11709E+18
1056923200
4.078821835
(et)2
510552752.4
476681169.6
499413884.6
279438746
25824528.2
97631123.51
212489772
2230540.034
2730692904
7015999804
539906266.3
184725035.1
1164415072
13740001599 d=
400000
e
IMPORT T
(I)
25.27735
(4.
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.998743523
R Square 0.997488625
Adjusted R Square
0.9966515
Standard Error
28730.68937
Observations
13
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
3
9
12
SS
MS
F
Significance F
2.95074E+12 9.8358E+11 1191.565 5.15152E-12
7429072607 825452511.8
2.95817E+12
t Stat
2.754420849
-1.51487591
6.583105594
2.765034791
P-value
0.022315
0.164105
0.000101
0.021931
Y
Predicted Y
Y
Predicted Y
600000 800000
t Plot 6.58701E
13
L INTERN BRUT
3
1374000159
PRODUSUL
PRODUSUL
INTERN
13
BRUT (PIB)
Predicted PRODUSUL
INTERN5.92332E
BRUT (PIB)
13
1374000159
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
t Plot
BRUT
(PIB) Fit Plot
et-1
Line
PRODUSUL INTERN
Predicted PRODUSUL
INTERN BRUTBRUT
(PIB)(PIB)
1000000
IMPORT
0 (I)
-50000
0
14
3
9
19
et-1
50000
PRODUSUL INTERN
Predicted PRODUSUL
INTERN BRUTBRUT
(PIB)(PIB)
100000
Predicted PRODUSUL
INTERN BRUT (PIB)
13
1374000159
13
INTERN5.92332E
BRUT (PIB)
503749
13
19
( 4 . 078821835
3) 2
Upper 95.0%
50794.23
0.431587
4.230002
1.405866
USUL INTERN
ted PRODUSUL
N BRUT (PIB)