As metro economies go, so goes the U.S.

economy
By SHERYL JEAN
Staff Writer sjean@dallasnews.com

ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT | METRO GDP GROWTH

By TOM SETZER
Staff Artist tsetzer@dallasnews.com

Texas metropolitan areas once again rank among the nations fastest-growing economies. The oil and gas boom has helped Texas metros as well as other metros in North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming. Overall, the nations 363 metro areas grew an estimated 1.6 percent in 2013, compared with the U.S. gross domestic product of 1.7 percent. This year, the U.S. GDP and the U.S. gross metropolitan product are expected to grow 2.5 percent.

10 fastest-growing U.S. metro areas

Three Texas cities made the U.S. Conference of Mayors forecast list of the 10 fastest-growing metro areas of 2013. This year, Midland is expected to fall from No. 1 to No. 4 as other metro areas catch up. Predictions for 2014 put Kokomo, Ind., in the No. 1 spot, with 4.7 percent growth.

By the dollars
Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth ranked among the top 10 metro economies based on total output value in 2012. In 2013, San Francisco was set to surpass Philadelphia as No. 7. In 2014, Dallas-Fort Worth is projected to surpass Washington, D.C., and Houston to No. 4.

2013 rank Metro area

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Midland Odessa Pascagoula, Miss. Fargo, N.D. Bismarck, N.D. Sioux Falls, S.D. St. Joseph, Mo. Cheyenne, Wyo. Trenton, N.J. Corpus Christi

2013 growth
7.3% 6.4% 6.3% 5.7% 5.4% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.1% 3.8%

2014 predicted growth

4.4% 3.4% 3.0% 4.6% 4.6% 2.7% 2.9% 1.7% 1.8% 3.1%

Rank by 2012 dollars Metro area

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 New York Los Angeles Chicago Houston Washington, D.C. Dallas-Fort Worth Philadelphia San Francisco Boston Atlanta

(In billions of dollars)

2012
$1,335.1 $765.7 $571.0 $449.7 $446.9 $418.6 $364.0 $360.4 $336.2 $294.0

2013
1379.7 $792.4 $585.9 $463.7 $455.8 $436.4 $373.9 $377.2 $346.4 $304.9

2014
$1,431.3 $827.6 $610.4 $488.7 $477.5 $560.9 $388.4 $395.4 $361.4 $320.9

Which cities drive Texas?

Texas five largest metro areas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, account for 78 percent of the states total economic output. The map is a 3D look at the 2012 gross metropolitan product for the states top 25 metro areas using core based statistical areas from the U.S. Census Bureau. Height of the areas indicates the percentage of the gross state product contributed by the metro area. Dollar figures are in billions.
Shown with boxed callouts, the Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio and El Paso metro areas contributed 78 percent of the gross state product in 2012. Dallas-Fort Worth $418.6 30% Amarillo $10.7 0.8% Lubbock $10.9 0.8% Abilene $6.0 0.4% Waco $9.4 0.7% Sherman-Denison (hidden by D-FW) $3.7 0.3% Texarkana $3.7 0.3% Longview $11.4 0.8% Tyler $9.4 0.7%

Wichita Falls $6.04 0.4%

The rest of Texas

22% 78%

El Paso $29.6 2.1% Odessa $8.2 0.6% KilleenTempleFort Hood $16.8 1.2% San Angelo $4.3 0.3% BeaumontPort Arthur $23.4 1.7% Houston $449.7 32.2%

Midland $16.2 1.2%

Austin $98.7 7.1% College StationBryan Victoria $7.6 $6.6 0.5% 0.5% Corpus Christi $21.9 1.6% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission $16 1.1%

San Antonio $92 6.6%

NOTE: Core based statistical areas are U.S. geographic areas defined by the Office of Management and Budget based around an urban center of at least 10,000 people and adjacent areas that are socioeconomically tied to the urban center by commuting.

Laredo $6.9 0.5%

Brownsville-Harlingen $8.5 0.6%

SOURCES: IHS Global Insight; U.S. Conference of Mayors; U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI

The bottom line

We expect real GDP in Dallas-Fort Worth will expand 3.4 percent in 2014, supported by the energy sector, construction, building materials, telecommunications and leisure and hospitality. As a result, we expect D-FW to be one of the fastestgrowing large metros in the country. Nathaniel Karp, chief U.S. economist for BBVA Compass "Over the medium-term, Texas and its metros will remain among the fastest-growing areas in the country. As one of the diversified metros in Texas, Dallas-Fort Worth will rank 25th in terms of real GMP growth over the next five years, largely from professional/business services and construction. Ana Orozco, a principal economist for IHS Global Insight Even if the rapidly growing housing and energy markets level off this year, Texas should still see strong growth as other industries pick up steam. The state also should continue to benefit from a steady stream of companies and people moving here, which can be interrelated. Sheryl Jean, staff writer, The Dallas Morning News