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Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of

the Modern Civilization. Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011.


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International Committee on Global Geological and Environmental
Change GEOCHANGE (Munich, Germany)
Ondokuz Mays University (Samsun, Turkey)
Halberg Chronobiology Center (Minneapolis, USA)
International Academy of Science H&E (Innsbruck, Austria)
Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia)
Pakistan Academy of Sciences (Islamabad, Pakistan)
World Organization for Scientific Cooperation (Munich, Germany)
SETAC Chemistry and Industry (Istanbul, Turkey)
Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (GNFE, UK, London)



PROCEEDINGS

Natural Cataclysms and Global
Problems of the Modern Civilization

WORLD FORUM INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS
September 19-21, 2011 Istanbul, Turkey






Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
the Modern Civilization. Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011.
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CONGRESS LEADERS:
Honorary Chairman:
- Prof. Dr. Franz Halberg, Honorary Director of the Halberg Chronobiology Center
(Minneapolis, USA)
Honorary Co-Chairmen:
- Prof. Dr. Nikolay Laverov, Vice President of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
President of the National Center for Development of Innovative Technologies
(Moscow, Russia);
- Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Senior Advisor on Climate change and Development in the
Planning Commission of Pakistan in the status of State Minister (Islamabad,
Pakistan);
- Prof. Dr. Walter Kofler, President of the International Council of Scientific
Development/International Academy of Science Health and Ecology (Innsbruck,
Austria)
Chairman:
- Prof. Dr. Elchin Khalilov, Chairman of the International Committee on Global
Geological and Environmental Change GEOCHANGE (Munich, Germany)
Co-Chairmen:
- Prof. Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, President of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences,
Coordinator General COMSTECH (Islamabad, Pakistan)
- Prof. Dr. Ahmet Bulut, Vice Rector of Ondokuz Mays University (Samsun,
Turkey)


Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of the Modern Civilization. Proceedings of the
World Forum International Congress, September 19-21, 2011, Istanbul, Turkey SWB, London,
2012, 621 p.
ISBN 978-9952-451-21-4
International Committee on Global Geological
and Environmental Change GEOCHANGE

London
SWB - 2012
Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
the Modern Civilization. Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011.
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CONTENTS
PLENARY SPEECHES
E.N. Khalilov
GLOBAL GEOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: THREATENING THE STABLE
DEVELOPMENT OF CIVILIZATION ........................................................................................................ 13

F. Halberg
AVOID PERSONAL, SOCIAL AND NATURAL CATACLYSMS BY TRANSDISCIPLINARY
MONITORING AND INTERNATIONAL MULTILINGUAL WEBSITE .................................................. 23

N.P. Laverov
NATURAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED CATASTROPHES: MODERN CHALLENGES FOR
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................................................... 32

W. Kofler
PROBLEMS OF UNIVERSAL TERMINOLOGY IN THE MODERN SCIENCE: WE NEED NEW
PARADIGMATIC INSTRUMENTS ............................................................................................................. 38

Atta-ur-Rahman
NATURAL CATACLYSMS: QUALITY HUMAN RESOURCES ARE WHAT FINALLY
MATTER ........................................................................................................................................................ 40

V.I. Starostenko
GREETINGS TO PARTICIPANTS OF THE WORLD FORUM .................................................................. 47
SPECIAL SECTION 1. Earthquake Forecasting 2011

Aftab Alam, Zeeshan Jilani and Muhammad Qaisar
PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS: POSSIBLE CAUSE OF EARTHQUAKES ............................................... 48

E.N. Khalilov, V.I. Starostenko, A. Kendzera, A. Mubarak, M. Qaisar, R. Sjamsinarsi, J. Sartohadi,
Wahyudi, C.Yatman
GLOBAL GRAVITATIONAL EFFECTS BEFORE AND AFTER STRONG M8.9 JAPAN
EARTHQUAKE OF MARCH 11, 2011 ......................................................................................................... 57

E.N. Khalilov
"ArkNow" SOCIAL NETWORK FOR PREPARATION OF THE POPULATION FOR NATURAL
DISASTERS ................................................................................................................................................... 69

Z.A. Samedzade, E.N. Khalilov
NATURAL CATACLYSMS AS A GLOBAL FACTOR OF INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD
ECONOMY .................................................................................................................................................... 71

Vitaly Starostenko, Olexander Kendzera, Olga Legostaeva, Liudmila Farfuliak
SEISMICITY AND SEISMIC PROTECTION IN UKRAINE ...................................................................... 72

Andrei Bala, Alexandru Aldea, Stefan Florin Balan, Cristian Arion
ASSESSMENT OF THE SEISMIC SITE EFFECTS BASED ON EARTHQUAKE RECORDINGS
AND IN SITU BOREHOLE MEASUREMENTS IN BUCHAREST, ROMANIA ....................................... 78

Goulopoulos Nikolaos
MAGMA STIMULATION AND RISING EARTHQUAKES: PRECURSORS OF VOLCANIC
WINTERS ICE AGE THAT WE MAY AVERT OTHER NECESSARY PREPARATIONS ................... 86
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T.Sh. Khalilova, E.N. Khalilov
TRACES OF AN ANCIENT CIVILIZATION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CASPIAN SEA .................... 96

Sinan Melih Nigdeli
ACTIVE BRACE CONTROL OF FRAME STRUCTURES UNDER EARTHQUAKE
EXCITATION .............................................................................................................................................. 102

M.S. Khairetdinov, G.M. Voskoboinikova, G.F. Sedukhina
INFORMATIVE PARAMETERS OF VIBROSEISMIC WAVE FIELDS IN FRACTURED AND
FLUID-SATURATED MEDIA ................................................................................................................... 109

A.S. Alekseev, G.M. Tsibulchik, B.M. Glinsky, V.V. Kovalevsky and M.S. Khairetdinov
VIBROSEISMIC TECHNOLOGY OF DETECTION AND MONITORING OF SEISMIC-
VOLCANO- PRONE ZONES ..................................................................................................................... 115

Kariche Jugurtha, Boughacha Mohamed Salah
DISPLAYING OF THE FIELDS INDUCED BY A FAULT IN AN INTERACTIVE MODE:
APPLICATION TO THE EL-ASNAM EARTHQUAKE (ALGERIA, 10/10/1980, M=7.2) ..................... 125

R.A. Keramova, P.A. Abdulrazagova, O.O. Osmanova
DIFFERENTIATION OF LOCATION OF SEISMIC SOURCES IN GEOCHEMICAL FIELDS
FLUIDS ........................................................................................................................................................ 133

R.A. Keramova

NEW TECHNOLOGY OF OPERATIVE EVALUATION OF SEISMIC SITUATION ON
GEOCHEMICAL FIELDS OF FLUIDS OF AZERBAIJAN ...................................................................... 137

Maryam Safarshahi, Hossein Hamzehloo, Mehdi Rezapour
ESTIMATION OF Q
S
AND SPECTRAL DECAY PARAMETER IN SOUTHEASTERN IRAN,
USING STRONG MOTION DATA OF RIGAN EARTHQUAKES (2010 & 2011) .................................. 144

Nabeel Ahmad, M. Awais, M. Shahid Riaz, M. Irfan and M. Qaisar
EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING BY GRAVITY VARIATIONS PRECURSORS RECORDED AT
ATROPATENA SYSTEM ............................................................................................................................ 153

P. Kalenda, L. Neumann
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION WORLD-WIDE TASK .......................................................................... 157

N.V. Koronovsky, A.A. Naimark
THE FORECAST OF EARTHQUAKES TODAY: CHALLENGES AND ANSWERS ............................ 166


SECTION 2. Earth Sciences
SUBSECTION Geology and Geophysics

A.G. Rodnikov
ELABORATION OF THE INTERDISCIPLINARY DATABASE FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF
THE GEODYNAMIC MODELS OF DEEP STRUCTURE OF THE NATURE DISASTER
REGIONS (NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE, SAKHALIN ISLAND) ...................................................... 176

R. Glavcheva, M. Matova
INCREASED SEISMIC DANGER: DUE TO EARTHQUAKES OR THE HUMAN ACTIVITIES? ........ 177

A.S. Salnikov, A.S. Efimov, V.L. Kuznetsov, V.M. Solovyev
SEISMIC INVESTIGATION OF THE EARTHS CRUST OF A UNIQUE PROVINCE OF
CENTRAL ASIA (ALTAI) WITH DEEP SEISMIC SOUNDING .............................................................. 189
Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
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R.I. Krivonosov
RUSSIAN NATIONAL SYSTEM OF MONITORING GEOPHYSICAL PROCESSES AND REAL
TIME VARIATIONS THEREOF ................................................................................................................. 199

T.O. Abdulmutalimova, B.A. Revich
THE GEOECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF NATURAL ARSENIC POISONING OF DRINKING
WATER IN DAGHESTAN REPUBLIC ..................................................................................................... 205

I.P. Gamkrelidze, D.M. Shengelia, T.N. Tsutsunava
PRE-ALPINE GEODYNAMICS OF THE CAUCASUS, MULTISTAGE REGIONAL
METAMORPHISM AND GRANITOID MAGMATISM .......................................................................... 208

F. Maisadze, T. Tsutsunava
GEOLOGICAL CATASTROPHES AND EVENT DEPOSITS .................................................................. 217


SUBSECTION - Atmosphere and Climate Change

Christoph J. Blasi
THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE AND NATURAL CATACLYSMS IN THE MODERN
CIVILIZATION ............................................................................................................................................ 225

I.V. Kozlyakova, I.A. Kozhevnikova, O.N. Eremina, Yu.A. Azyukina
THE STUDY OF SINKHOLES IN THE MOSCOW TERRITORY ........................................................... 226

R.N. Mahmudov
THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE HYDRO METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS OF AZERBAIJAN REPUBLIC .......................................................................................... 227
SECTION 3. Cosmic-Terrestrial Relations, Chronobiology,
BIOCOS Program

Franz Halberg, Robert B. Sothern, Dewayne Hillman, Germaine Cornlissen
INFRADIAN CYCLES IN AGING HUMAN PSYCHOPHYSIOLOGY GAUGED BY THE
CIRCADIAN MESOR AND AMPLITUDE ................................................................................................ 228

Robert B. Sothern, Dewayne Hillman, Germaine Cornlissen, Franz Halberg
INFRADIAN CYCLES GAUGE AGING OF THE HUMAN CIRCULATION AND RESPIRATION
AROUND THE CLOCK FOR OVER FOUR DECADES ........................................................................... 233

Franz Halberg, Stefano Sello, Germaine Cornlissen
NEONATAL ANTHROPOMETRY IN MOSCOW BY THE LATE BORIS NIKITYUK REVISITED
GLOCALLY REVEALS A PARA-TRIDECADAL COMPONENT .......................................................... 239

Germaine Cornelissen, Franz Halberg, Kuniaki Otsuka, Karl Hecht
DIFFERENT APPROACHES REVEAL DIFFERENT BLOOD PRESSURE BEHAVIOR IN
DEPRESSION .............................................................................................................................................. 247

Othild Schwartzkopff, Germaine Cornlissen, Ellis Nolley, Larry A. Beaty, Franz Halberg
FROM JANEWAY TO C-ABPM: AN AUTOMATIC INTERNATIONAL MULTILINGUAL
CHRONOMIC WEBSITE ............................................................................................................................ 251

E.V. Syutkina, G. Cornelissen, M. Mitish, M.V. Narogan, A.V. Surgyk, O.S. Krylova, A. Masalov,
O. Schwartzkopff, F. Halberg
THE NEONATE, A PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE MAGNETORECEPTOR? POPULATION
RHYTHMS REVEAL CYCLES .................................................................................................................. 254

Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
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G. Cornelissen, V. Brandes, F. Halberg
CIRCADIAN STAGE-DEPENDENT EFFECT OF LISTENING TO MUSIC ON SYSTOLIC
BLOOD PRESSURE .................................................................................................................................... 259

G. Cornelissen, Kuniaki Otsuka, F. Halberg
WEEK-LONG ABPM RECORDS ARE A PREREQUISITE FOR A RELIABLE DIAGNOSIS OF
VASCULAR VARIABILITY DISORDERS (VVDS) ................................................................................. 263

Yoshihiko Watanabe, Franz Halberg, Kuniaki Otsuka, Germaine Cornelissen
PERSONALIZED BLOOD PRESSURE CHRONOTHERAPY .................................................................. 268

Yoshihiko Watanabe, Franz Halberg, Kuniaki Otsuka, Germaine Cornelissen
PHYSIOLOGY AND EARTHQUAKES, FOCUSING ON THAT IN 2011 IN EAST JAPAN .................. 273

Ning Cegielska, Maroun el-Khoury, Germaine Cornelissen, Jerzy Czaplicki, Dewayne Hillman, Judy
Finley, Faithe Thomas, Tomoshige Kino, George Chrousos, Rollin McCraty, Miroslav Mikulecky,
Elias Ilyia, Franz Halberg
ENDOCRINES' DESYNCHRONIZATION DURING ADYNAMIC DEPRESSION ................................ 277

Maroun el-Khoury, Ning Cegielska , Germaine Cornelissen, Jerzy Czaplicki, Dewayne Hillman,
Judy Finley, Faithe Thomas, Tomoshige Kino, George Chrousos, Rollin McCraty, Elias Ilyia,
Franz Halberg
SERIAL SECTIONS REVEAL THREE CONSECUTIVE SOCIETAL DESYNCHRONIZATIONS
OF SALIVARY CORTISOL DURING HALF-YEARLY RECURRING ADYNAMIC
DEPRESSION ............................................................................................................................................... 284

Franz Halberg, Dewayne Hillman, Othild Schwartzkopff, Tamara Breus, Elena V. Syutkina,
Anatoly Masalov, Germaine Cornelissen
PUTATIVE SOLAR SIGNATURES CAN DIFFER AMONG VARIABLES AND CIRCADIAN
ENDPOINTS AND IN INDIVIDUALS VS. POPULATIONS .................................................................... 289

Germaine Cornelissen, Franz Halberg, Othild Schwartzkopff
COMPETING TIDAL AND CIRCADIAN LUNISOLAR RESONANCE IN AN ARCHAEON ............... 295

Germaine Cornelissen, Fabien DeMeester, Agnieszka Wilczynska-Kwiatek, Franz Halberg
RELATIVE PROMINENCE OF WEEKLY-TO-DAILY AMPLITUDE RATIO OF BLOOD
PRESSURE CHANGES WITH AGE ........................................................................................................... 297

Germaine Cornelissen, Hans Wendt, Franz Halberg
EARTHQUAKES, FEATURES OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE LITHOSPHERE, MIRROR THE
HELIOSPHERE, AS DO PHYSIOLOPATHOLOGIC ASPECTS OF THE BIOSPHERE ......................... 301

Franz Halberg, Germaine Cornelissen, Vera Brandes, Othild Schwartzkopff
INDISPENSABLE 24/7 CHRONOMICALLY-ASSESSED ABPM REPLACES PROVIDERS'
OFFICE BLOOD PRESSURE, DETECTING CIRCADIAN ECFREQUENTIA AND EVEN
DIFREQUENTIA .......................................................................................................................................... 307

George S. Katinas, Germaine Cornelissen, Salvador Sanchez de la Pea, Yoshihiko Watanabe, Julia
Halberg, Franz Halberg
SCREENING FOR CEREBRO-CARDIOVASCULAR RISK REQUIRES CHRONOBIOLOGIC
ANALYSES .................................................................................................................................................. 312

John F. Costella, Franz Halberg, Dewayne Hillman, Miroslav Mikulecky, Germaine Cornlissen
FOUR CIRCADIAN AND TWO CIRCASEMIDIAN PERIODS IN SLEEP-WAKEFULNESS OF A
MAN ON A SELF-SELECTED ROUTINE ................................................................................................. 314

Jerzy Czaplicki, Germaine Cornelissen, Franz Halberg, Dewayne Hillman, Judy Finley, Faithe
Thomas, Tomoshige Kino, George Chrousos
SPECTOGRAMS REVEAL MULTIPLE CIRCADIAN PERIODS WITH THEIR ALTERNATING
PROMINENCE QUANTIFIED NONLINEARLY ....................................................................................... 317

Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
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Vera Brandes, Germaine Cornlissen, Dewayne Hillman, Elias Ilyia, Ning Cegielska, Maroun El-
Khoury, Jaroslav Strestik, Judy Finley, Faithe Thomas, Tomoshige Kino, George P. Chrousos,
R.B. Singh, Miroslav Mikulecky, Franz Halberg
SANOSON MUSIC THERAPY OF UNWELLNESS IN A CASE OF RECURRENT ADYNAMIC
DEPRESSION WITH CIRCADIAN DIFREQUENTIA .............................................................................. 320

Shantanu Chavan, Germaine Cornelissen, Dewayne Hillman, Franz Halberg
CROSS-SPECTRAL COHERENCES OF POPULATION OR INDIVIDUAL HEALTH AND
SPACE WEATHER ..................................................................................................................................... 325
Franz Halberg, Germaine Cornelissen, George S. Katinas, Patricia Grambsch, Dewayne Hillman,
Othild Schwartzkopff, Francine Halberg
META-ANALYTIC HISTORY OF CONGRUENT CYCLES IN SPACE WEATHER, THE
HUMAN MIND AND OTHER AFFAIRS ................................................................................................... 327

Yoshihiko Watanabe, Germaine Cornlissen, Dewayne Hillman, Kuniaki Otsuka, Franz Halberg
DECADAL AND MULTIDECADAL PERIODS IN HUMAN BLOOD PRESSURE AND PULSE ......... 338

Yoshihiko Watanabe, Germaine Cornelissen, Franz Halberg
TRANSITION FROM SUNDAY-ONLY MESOR-NORMOTENSION (PRE-HYPERTENSION) TO
SUNDAY-INCLUSIVE MESOR-HYPERTENSION IN THE LIGHT OF INFRADIAN PERIODS
IN 23 YEARS OF HALF-HOURLY MEASUREMENTS OF BLOOD PRESSURE AND PULSE .......... 341

B. Aslanov
EFFECT OF "SUPERMOON" ON EARTH SEISMOTECTONICS ........................................................... 347

M. Awais, M. Shahid Riaz, Zeeshan Jilani, M. Qaisar
ANALYSIS OF THERMAL SATELLITE AND GROUND BASED RADON DATA RECORDED
PRIOR TO HARIPUR EARTHQUAKE, PAKISTAN: PRELIMINARY RESULTS ................................. 352

N.G. Kapanadze, M.Sh. Gigolashvili
INVESTIGATION OF SELECTED NARROW BANDS INTENSITY VARIATION OF THE
SOLAR IRRADIANCE DURING YEARS 1981-2008 ............................................................................... 358

M.Sh. Gigolashvili, N.G. Kapanadze
ABOUT SOME BEHAVIOR OF THE SOLAR TOTAL AND SPECTRAL IRRADIANCE DURING
UNUSUALLY PROLONGED DECREASING PHASE OF THE SOLAR CYCLE 23 .............................. 367

SECTION 4. Health care

Linda M. Whiteford, Graham A. Tobin, Eric C. Jones, Arthur D. Murphy, Cecilia Vindrola-Padros,
Sandra Garren, AJ Faas, Hugo Yepes
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND LANDSLIDES: HEALTH AND RE-SETTLEMENT
FOLLOWING DISASTERS ........................................................................................................................ 375

N.T. Dzhaynakbaev, A.R. Ryskulova
MOBILE CELL MEDICAL COMPLEX, A NEW FORM OF IMPROVING PRIMARY HEALTH
CARE TO PREVENT AND REDUCE THE RISK OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF EMERGENCIES
AND NATURAL DISASTERS .................................................................................................................... 383

T.I. Novosyolova
USING LITOVIT SERIES PRODUCT AS PART OF COMPLEX THERAPY APPLIED TO
BURNED PATIENTS .................................................................................................................................. 387

E.G. Novoselova
ZEOLITE-CONTAINING PRODUCTS OF LITOVIIT SERIES RESEARCH OF SORPTION
ACTIVITY .................................................................................................................................................... 391

Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
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T.I. Novoselova
ZEOLITE-CONTAINING PRODUCTS LITOVIT SERIES ADAPTATION OF ORGANISMS IN
HIGH LOAD CONDITIONS ........................................................................................................................ 394

E.G. Novosyolova
ASSESSING MEDICAL AND BIOLOGICAL VALUE OF LITOVIT SERIES PRODUCTS ................ 397

N.V. Abdullayeva, .S. Kasimov, F.E. Sadikhova, .K. Agadzhanova
VIRAL-BACTERIAL MIXED INFECTIONS AND THEIRS CLINICAL AND CYTOMORPHOLO-
GICAL APPEARANCE ................................................................................................................................ 399

F.E. Sadikhova, G.A. Guliyeva
CONCERNING ISSUES, ASSOCIATED WITH SPREAD AND INDICATION OF VIRUS FLORA
IN AQUEOUS MEDIUMS ........................................................................................................................... 402

S.A. Muradhanova, T.Sh. Khalilova
THE RELEVANCE OF AZEOMED IN MEDICINE .................................................................................. 405


S.M. Ibragimova, T.Sh. Khalilova
ANTHRAX AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ADSORPTION OF NATURAL ZEOLITE ............................. 408

Sh.T. Shikhaliyeva, T.Sh. Khalilova
APPLICATION OF NATURAL ZEOLITE "AZEOMED" AS AN ADSORBENT OF CYTO-
MEGALOVIRUSES ..................................................................................................................................... 411

M.A. Rajabov, F.E. Sadykhova, T.Sh. Khalilova
ABOUT THE PROBLEM Y.ENTEROCOLITICA ...................................................................................... 413

Kh.I. Ibadova, T.Sh. Khalilova
TRACE ELEMENTS IN MEDICINE .......................................................................................................... 416

A. Panichev, K. Golokhvast
LITHOPHAGIAL METHODS ADAPTATION TO ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ........... 418

L.F. Rzayeva, T.Sh. Khalilova, F.E. Sadikhova
CORRECTION OF DYSBACTERIOSIS IN APPLICATION OF AZEOMED NATURAL ZEOLITE ..... 419

SECTION 5.
Emergency management and communication systems

A. Abbasov, E. Khalilov
SPECIAL COMMUNICATION SYSTEM FOR NATURAL DISASTER AREAS "SATPAG" ................ 422

Y. Smara
REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGIES APPLIED TO DISASTERS MANAGEMENT IN
ALGERIA ...................................................................................................................................................... 428

V.A. Aliyev, R.N. Mahmudov, M.Yu. Yusifov, S.G. Nabiyeva, A.A. Ahmedov, E.K. Gafarov
MINGECHEVIR EMBANKMENT DAM COLLAPSE: CATASTROPHIC RISK ANALYSIS AND
MANAGEMENT .......................................................................................................................................... 429

Safar Ghaedrahmati, R. Ghaneie, A. Bagheri
AN ANALYSIS OF IRAN'S CITIES DISTRIBUTIONS IN RELATED TO EARTHQUAKE
HAZARD ...................................................................................................................................................... 430

N.A. Babakhanov, M. Musayeva
FLOOD FIGHTING METHODS IN THE KURA AND ARAZ RIVERS ................................................... 430
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V. Burova, V. Pyrchenko
THE MAP OF SOCIAL RISK OF RUSSIA FROM THE HAZARDOUS NATURAL PROCESSES
AS THE TOOL OF CONSEQUENCES REDUCTION FROM EMERGENCY SITUATIONS ............... 434

G. Batrak, S. Semenov, S. Seleznev, I. Galitskaya
CONSIDERATION OF EXTREME HYDRO-GEOLOGICAL EVENTS IN NUMERICAL
FORECASTS OF HYDRO-GEOLOGICAL CONDITIONS CHANGE IN THE TERRITORY OF
IMPORTANT INFRASTRUCTURE OBJECTS ......................................................................................... 435

Graham A. Tobin, Linda M. Whiteford, Arthur D.Murphy, Eric C. Jones, Albert J. Faas, Hugo Yepes
A SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS OF RESILIENCE IN CHRONIC HAZARD SETTINGS ................ 444

I.V. Galitskaya, G.I. Batrak
ASSESSMENT OF HAZARD AND RISK, CAUSED BY GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION
IN THE URBAN TERRITORY IN THE EXTREME EMERGENCY ........................................................ 452

R. Aghazadeh
GLOBALIZATION AND MODERN URBAN-PLANNING POLICY ....................................................... 461

V.A. Menshikov, S.V. Cherkas
IGMASS AS A TOOL FOR EVOLVING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL DISASTER SECURITY
INFORMATION AREAS ............................................................................................................................. 464

V.A. Menshikov, S.V. Cherkas
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MONITORING AEROSPACE SYSTEM IGMASS NEW
APPROACH TO THE DISASTER MANAGEMENT ISSUE ..................................................................... 466

SECTION 6. Construction

E.N. Khalilov, F.G. Damirov
NEW TECHNOLOGY OF SEISMIC STABLE CONSTRICTION DANCING BUILDING
TECHNOLOGY .......................................................................................................................................... 467

O.M. Salamov, A.M. Hashimov
UNDERGROUND METALLIC EQUIPMENTS CATHODIC PROTECTION FROM ELECTRO-
CHEMICAL CORROSION BY SOLAR ENERGY .................................................................................... 475

T.A. Laniyan, A.F. Abimbola, M.K. C Sridhar
GEOCHEMICAL EVALUATION OF ARSENIC IN EFFLUENTS, SURFACE AND
GROUNDWATER IN IBADAN METROPOLIS AND POSSIBLE REMEDIATION METHODS .......... 484

I.V. Kozlyakova, I.P. Balobanov, N.G. Anisimova
ASSESSMENT OF RISK CAUSED BY THE NATURAL HAZARDS AT THE SANATORIUM
CONSTRUCTION SITE IN THE COASTAL ZONE OF THE BLACK SEA, THE PITSUNDA
PENINSULA ................................................................................................................................................ 485

Aptikaev Feliks, Erteleva Olga, Baruah Saurabh, Joshi Anand
ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC TREATMENTS IN HIMALAY REGIONS OF INDIA USING THE
STATISTIC OF THE EMPIRICAL DATA ................................................................................................ 485

F.Aptikaev
CONSTRUCTION SAFETY AND BUILDING CODES ............................................................................ 496

Sh.A. Mamedov, T.J. Hasanova
MOVEMENT OF CYLINDRICAL INCLUSION IN THE VISCOELASTIC MEDIUM DESCRIBED
MODEL FOIGHT ......................................................................................................................................... 504

Sh.A. Mamedov, T.J. Hasanova, N.J. Imamalieva
DYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF HIGH-RISE FRAME BUILDINGS AT VIBRATING SEISMIC
LOADINGS .................................................................................................................................................. 517
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T. Mussabayev, T. Kayupov
NONLINEAR THEORY OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN UNDERGROUND CONSTRUC-
TIONS AND GROUND MASSIVE AT VARIOUS EMERGENCY SITUATIONS .................................. 520

T. Hagverdiyeva
THE POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION OF ALKALI-MINERAL BINDER MATERIALS BASED
ON MIXTURE OF ALUMINUM HIGHER OXIDE WASTE, LIQUID GLASS, SODIUM
HYDROXIDE, CLAY AND PORTLANCEMENT ..................................................................................... 527

Gebrail Bekda, Sinan Melih Nigdeli
INVESTIGASTION OF SDOF IDEALISATION FOR STRUCTURES WITH OPTIMUM TUNED
MASS DAMPERS ........................................................................................................................................ 533

H.O. Ojagov, F.G. Gabibov
NEW METHOD OF STUDYING LARGE LAND SLIDING PROCESSES ............................................... 537

H.O. Ojagov, F.G. Gabibov, Kh.R. Bayat
NATURAL CALAMITIES IN THE TERRITORY OF IRAN ..................................................................... 539

Sinan Melih Nigdeli
ACTIVE BRACE CONTROL OF FRAME STRUCTURES UNDER EARTHQUAKE
EXCITATION ............................................................................................................................................... 541

Sinan Melih Nigdeli, Gebrail Bekda
OPTIMIZATION OF TUNED MASS DAMPER PARAMETERS FOR STRUCTURES
SUBJECTED TO EARTHQUAKES WITH FORWARD DIRECTIVITY .................................................. 548

Azer A. Kasimzade, Soyhan Bal, Gencay Atmaca
NATURAL STRUCTURAL PROTECTION OF STRUCTURES IN NATURAL CATACLYSM:
STRUCTURAL RESISTIVITY SECRET OF WALLED OBELISK MONUMENT AGAINST
STRONG EARTHQUAKE ACTIONS FOR TEN CENTURIES AND ITS MATHEMATICAL
MODEL FOR APPLICATION ..................................................................................................................... 554

Rosa Grazia De Paoli
INTEGRATED APPROACHES FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE DAMAGES AND
RETRAINING OF HISTORICAL CENTRES: THE CASE OF PAGANICA (AQUILA) .......................... 554

Bar Sayn, Gebrail Bekda, Bar Yldzlar
THE PARAMETERS THAT CAUSE TORSIONAL IRREGULARITY IN RC BUILDINGS UNDER
EARTHQUAKE EFFECT ............................................................................................................................ 555

M. Negizbaeva
THE ROLE OF PR IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS ................................................................................. 564


SECTION 7. Ecology and Environment

G.Sh. Mammadov
USE OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN SOLUTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS IN
AZERBAIIJAN ............................................................................................................................................. 569

Y.N. Gahramanly, E.N. Khalilov
ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PETROLEUM INDUSTRY AT MODERN STAGE ............................. 573

Y. Smara, S. Bouchaib, S. Malki
OIL SPILL DETECTION AND IDENTIFICATION USING RADAR SAR IMAGES APPLIED TO
THE ALGERIAN COASTS .......................................................................................................................... 578

A.N. Kuznetsov, Yu.A. Fedorov
DISTRIBUTION AND NATURAL TRANSFORMATION OF FUEL OIL SPILLED IN THE
STRAIT OF KERCH IN NOVEMBER 2007 (THREE-YEAR OBSERVATIONAL RESULTS) .............. 578
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L. Sail, F. Ghomar, A. Bezzar, O. Benali
COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE IONS NA
+
AND K
+
IN THE
INHIBITION PROCESS BY MASS LOSS ................................................................................................. 579

E.D. Vyazilov
CLASSIFICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ON VITAL ACTIVITY OBJECTS AND
OF RECOMMENDATIONS FOR DECISION MAKING .......................................................................... 580

Y.M. Eyvazova
THE INFLUENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS TO THE HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF
RIVERS AND THE ESTIMATION OF ECOLOGICAL FLOW ................................................................ 581

M.F. Mir-Babayev, A.A. Khalilova, H.G. Mamedova
OIL PRODUCTION AND ECOLOGY OF THE CASPIAN BASIN .......................................................... 582

G.G. Matishov, E.N. Ponomareva
BIOTECHNOLOGY OF AQUACULTURE FOR REHABILITATION OF STURGEON SPECIES
GENE POOL ................................................................................................................................................ 583

Adrian Toader-Williams, Roberto F. Nespolo
THE INFLUENCE OF HORSERADISH (ARMORACIA RUSTICANA) AND COMMON
COMFREY (SYMPHYTUM OFFICINALE) UPON THE EDIBLE TERRESTRIAL SNAILS
HELIX ASPERSA MULLER (CORNU ASPERSUM) DURING HEAT WAVE AND DROUGHT
AS MEANS TO IMPROVE SNAIL FARMING TECHNOLOGIES .......................................................... 584

Adrian Toader-Williams, Aurel Sara, Mihai Radu Pop, Maria Dana Bobit, Mihai Bentea, Matei
Marcel Duda
THE INFLUENCE OF SOME PERENNIAL PLANTS AND SEL-PLEX UPON THE
DEVELOPMENT, RESISTANCE TO EXTREME CLIMATE CONDITIONS AND MEAT
QUALITY OF THE EDIBLE TERRESTRIAL SNAILS AS ONE OF THE MOST EFFICIENT AND
ECOLOGICAL SOUND ANIMAL PROTEIN SOURCE FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION ..................... 585

Ayeche Riad, Hamdaoui Oualid
TREATMENT OF URBAN WASTEWATER TREATMENT (CITY OF ANNABA IN ALGERIA)
BY THE LIME WASTE FROM THE ENGI ............................................................................................... 586

P.M. Paradisopoulou, E.E. Papadimitriou, J. Mirek, V.G. Karakostas
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON FAULTS NEAR THE CITY OF THESSALONIKI
(NORTHERN GREECE) .............................................................................................................................. 586

Vijayan Gurumurthy Iyer
ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESS BASED EDUCATION AND RESEARCH FOR BETTER LIFE
AND ENACTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL POLICY ACT ON ENVIRONMENT 2011 ....................... 587

B. Dimiskovska

MODELING OF CONSEQUENCES ON ENVIRONMENT THROUGH ANALYSIS OF
INDUSTRIAL RISKS .................................................................................................................................. 588

Behzad Nadi, Ibrahim Komoo, Elmira Shamshiry, Saeid G. Jafarzadeh
RISK REDUCTION DUE TO INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION BY GEOSPATIAL MODELING ................ 589

N.V. Baranovskiy
NEW CONCEPT OF FOREST FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION ................... 589

N.V. Baranovskiy, G.V. Kuznetsov
MATHEMATICAL MODELING AS A TOOL TO PREDICTION OF FOREST FIRE DANGER ........... 590

E.Q. Ismibeyli, S.R. Kasimova
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION FROM EXPOSURE ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION .......... 590

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Mansour Yeganeh
HUMAN, NATURAL ENVIRONMENT AND ARCHITECTURE ............................................................ 590

Sh.Yu. Goychayly, I.M. Afandieva
ADDRESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY IN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS .......................... 591

K. Baddari, M. Djeddi, Gh. Brahmi
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF HEAVY METALS ATMOSPHERE CONCENTRA-
TION OBTAINED BY NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES IN ALGIERS URBAN SITE ..................................... 592

Yusuf Sait Trkan, Osman Hrol Trkakn
FUZZY RULE BASED FIRE RISK ANALYSIS OF ISTANBULS STREETS AND AVENUES ........... 592

G.Sh. Mammadov, S.Z. Mammadova
ECOETHIC PROBLEMS IN AZERBAIJAN AGRICULTURE .................................................................. 593

L. Petrashko
BUSINESS SCHOOLS GLOBAL RESPONSIBLE LEADERSHIP .......................................................... 599

V. Svalova
MECHANICAL-MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND MONITORING FOR LANDSLIDES ................ 603

Barbara Theilen-Willige, Ioanna D. Papadopoulou, Paraskevas Savvaidis, Ilias N. Tziavos
USE OF REMOTE SENSING AND GIS METHODS FOR MITIGATING THE IMPACT OF
EARTHQUAKES IN CITIES ..................................................................................................................... 609

RESOLUTION OF THE WORLD FORUM INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS NATURAL
CATACLYSMS AND GLOBAL PROBLEMS OF THE MODERN CIVILIZATION
GEOCATACLYSM-2011 ........................................................................................................................... 619


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PLENARY SPEECHES

GLOBAL GEOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE:
THREATENING THE STABLE DEVELOPMENT OF CIVILIZATION
Prof. Dr. Elchin Khalilov
Chairman of World Forum International Congress GEOCATACLYSM-2011,
Chairman of International Committee GEOCHANGE (Munich, Germany)




The time has come when accumulated earth science data make it possible to take a deeper
look into the natures global changes, and reconsider their extent and their role in the sustainable
development of civilization. Many world scientists realize that not only do these changes affect the
climate, but they have an impact on virtually the entire volume of the Earth, from its core to the
atmosphere and magnetosphere.
Global Changes of the Environment, GEOCHANGE, mean natural, planet-wide
changes in nature, influenced by endogenous, exogenous and cosmic factors occurring within
the solar system and having negative implications for the sustainable development of
humankind.
This summarizing scientific work by IC GCGE GEOCHANGE is our attempt to
demonstrate the extent of these processes and how they influence the development of humankind.
Those processes may destabilize the progress of civilization unless some preemptive and effective
joint action is taken by the international community to ensure the maximum possible reduction in
the number of casualties and economic damage caused by natural disasters.

The conclusions drawn on the basis of the research are as follows:
1. Magnetic poles drift acceleration
The explosive, more than fivefold growth of the North Magnetic Poles drift rate from
1990 to the present has been accompanied by a significant increase in Earths endogenous activity.
In 1998, the North Magnetic Poles drift rate approached its maximum value.
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From roughly 1998 on, there has been observed a sharp increase in the number of large
earthquakes and earthquake fatalities, of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis (catastrophic, medium-
sized and weak).

Graph of velocity of North Geomagnetic Pole movement
(N. Olsen and M. Mandea, 2007)

2. Anomalous J
2
coefficient change
1998 saw the beginning of abnormal changes in some of Earths geophysical parameters, a
leap in J
2
coefficient values in particular. This coefficient is determined using measurements made
by the laser ranging system from US satellites.


Variations of J
2
coefficient values according to C. Cox and B. F. Chao, 2002

The J
2
coefficient demonstrates the dynamics of the ratio between Earths equatorial and
polar radii. According to NASA, the J
2
coefficient had been decreasing for many years supposedly
due to the release of meltwater from the mantle since the ice age. This was indicative of an increase
in Earths radius at the poles and its reduction at the equator. Meanwhile, new data show that since
1998 the J
2
coefficient began to grow. This process reflects the global redistribution of Earths
masses, as well as Earths expansion at the equator and its flattening at the poles. Thus, some
global-scale event is thought to have occurred in 1998; this could mean both global redistribution
of Earth masses and minor changes of its shape.

3. Global sea level change
During the period between 1997 and 1999, sea level fluctuations of the Indian Ocean,
Western and Central Pacific were in antiphase to fluctuations of the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic
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Ocean. While the level of the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean began to rise sharply from 1997
with a peak in 1998 (about 3 cm), the level of the Indian Ocean, Western and Central Pacific was
falling with a 1998 minimum (about 3 cm). The timing of these processes coincided with the J
2

coefficient anomaly. Meanwhile, an article by B. F. Chao and others (B.F. Chao et al., 2003)
indicates that even considering the model of possible impact of the redistribution of water masses
in the world ocean, the actually observed effect of the J
2
coefficient is 3 times greater than those
influences.



Comparison of graphs for sea level fluctuations of Indian Ocean and Western & Central Pacific with
those of Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, as well as overall graph for global sea level fluctuations

4. Global tropospheric temperature change
An anomalous, explosive growth of the global tropospheric temperature was observed in 1998.


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5. Large earthquakes
A comparative analysis of anomalous J
2
variations and the dynamics of numbers of large
M> 8 earthquakes between 1980 and May 2010 has revealed that starting from 1997-1999, there
has been a surge in the number of large earthquakes and fatalities caused by them according to the
exponential law.


Graph for M>8 earthquakes

6. Volcanic eruptions
A comparative analysis of volcanic eruptions and J
2
variations has also showed that 1997-
1998 were years of deep minimum of volcanic activity, followed by a sharp increase in volcanic
activity observed to date.



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7. Tsunamis
Since 1998, there has been observed a dramatic change in the tendency for statistical
distribution of the annual numbers of catastrophic, medium-sized and weak tsunamis. The leap in
the annual tsunami number statistics, witnessed since 1998 is described by exponential trends.



Graphs showing evolution of tsunami numbers between 1965 and 2010.
Y-axis: on the left - the number of medium-sized and weak tsunamis, on the right the number of
catastrophic tsunamis.(A) graphs show evolution of annual tsunami numbers; Catastrophic tsunamis graph
is marked in yellow; weak and medium-sized tsunamis graph is marked in blue; (B) graphs show exponential
trends of evolution of annual tsunami numbers. Catastrophic tsunamis trend is marked in yellow; medium-
sized and weak tsunamis trend is marked in blue.


8. Floods
Analysis of the evolution of numbers of severe U.S. floods over the past 100 years makes it
possible to conclude that there has been a substantial increase in this indicator since 1998. Studying
the dynamics of the numbers of worldwide flood notifications from 2002 to late May, 2010
(according to the Global Flood Detection System, an experimental system aimed at providing flood
disaster alerts) has shown a steady increase in the number of floods since 2005. Meanwhile,
comparing the number of seasonal floods from 2005 to May 2010 (from February to late May) for
the same period in previous years indicates some constant increase in the number of seasonal
floods from year to year. In particular, the number of worldwide flood notifications received for the
period between February 2010 and late May 2010 is more than 2,5 times higher than the figures for
the same periods from 2002 to 2006 inclusive.
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U.S. flood statistics from 1980 to 2008


9. Tornadoes
Germany has been given as an example of a sharp increase in the number of tornadoes
since 1998. There were 2,5 times more tornadoes in Germany for 5 years (between 2000 and 2005)
than over the preceding ten years. A similar situation can be observed in the U.S.


Graphs for U.S. all-class tornado activity between 1950 and 2007


10. Hurricanes and storms
A surge was observed between 1998 and 2007 in the number of North Atlantic tropical
storms, and this tendency continues today. An increase in the total number of Atlantic Basin
hurricanes from 1944 to the present is observed as well.
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Graph for numbers of North Atlantic tropical storms between 1925 and 2007
North Atlantic storms graph is marked in blue; Exponential trend is marked in red

11. Forest fires
The dynamics of the annual numbers of U.S. forest fires from 1960 to 2007 reveals their
tendency to grow, with the surge beginning in 1998 as well. A similar pattern in the dynamics of
forest fire statistics is observed in other regions of Earth.


Annual rates of average fire-affected area in U.S. between 1960 and 2007
(According to U.S. National Interagency Fire Center)

For instance, Kazakhstan in 1997 witnessed a surge in the form of a sharp increase in the
number of forest fires and fire-affected areas. As for the territory of Eastern and Western Europe
and the CIS, there is a tendency for the annual numbers of forest fires to soar as well, with the
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general nature of their dynamics described by an exponential trend. Around 1998, there was
observed a surge in the number of forest fires.

12. The role of natural factors in global climate change:
- The role of Earths volcanic activity in global climate change is significantly higher than
suggested in IPCC reports.
- Increased degassing of the mantle during the periods of intensification of Earths
endogenous activity can be one of the main factors causing global temperature changes. This
process occurs as a result of the following: growing number of volcanic eruptions; increased
seismic activity and higher rate of gases entering the atmosphere through deep faults in the crust;
deep gases penetrating into the world ocean and subsequently the atmosphere as a result of
intensification of the spreading processes. All this ought to result in higher amount of greenhouse
gases released from the mantle into the atmosphere.
- An important role in climate change is attributed to global changes in the parameters of the
geomagnetic field and magnetosphere; this refers in particular to the more than 500% increase in
the North Magnetic Poles drift rate and reduction of the geomagnetic field intensity. Today, the
impact of magnetospheric processes on Earths climate is considered a proven scientific fact.
- Global climate change is also affected by solar activity, solar constant variations (flux of
solar radiation) in particular, which is also a proven scientific fact.
As a result of the studies conducted, a conclusion has been drawn about the beginning of the
so-called global energy spike in our planets energy manifesting itself across all its strata: the
lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere and magnetosphere. The starting point for the global energy
spike is roughly 1998. The global energy spike is explicitly reflected in the soaring statistical
indicators for the vast majority of natural disasters most dangerous to humanity: earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, tornadoes, hurricanes, storms, floods and forest fires.


POSSIBLE FORECASTS OF SOME NATURAL CATACLYSMS AND
COSMIC PROCESSES
The first IC GEOCHANGE GCGE report can hardly be called complete without this
appendix. The analysis conducted on the dynamics of statistics of many natural hazards,
geophysical and cosmic parameters has showed their tendency to increase substantially since about
1998. However, it is obvious that the main point of this study is not about a formal statement of
facts but rather in a possible prediction of future events.
Not only must we demonstrate the evolution of the dynamics of the number and scale of
natural disasters, but we must also suggest possible patterns of future development of events, that
is, provide a long-term forecast for Earths most dangerous hazards. This section does not address
other types of disasters, which is planned for the next IC GCGE reports. Attitude to the problem of
forecasting natural disasters may be disputable; therefore this section is not included in the basic
contents of the first IC GCGE report, being instead given as a special Appendix 1.


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Graph for monthly numbers of M> 6,5 earthquakes between 1976 and 2010 forecasted until 2015 by
highlighting sinusoidal trend (by E.N.Khalilov, 2010, according to USGS data)
Graph for monthly earthquake figures is marked in light blue; sinusoidal trend enveloping highest peaks of
monthly earthquake figures is marked in purple; number of earthquakes graph smoothed with 11-month
averages is marked in white; straight-line trend is marked in dark blue; projected segment of seismic activity
graph is marked in orange.





Graph for annual numbers of worlds volcanic eruptions between 1900 and 2009 forecasted until 2020
(by E.N.Khalilov, 2010, according to Global Volcanism Program)
Graph for annual volcanic eruption numbers is marked in blue; sinusoidal trend is marked in red;
straight-line trend is marked in green; 1-17 are cycles of volcanic activity.

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We are not trying to predict specific events since it is too complicated and controversial an
issue. Our objective is long-term forecasting of changes in the next decades dynamics of global
seismic and volcanic activity and tsunami manifestations. Tsunamis typically result from seismic
and volcanic activity except for rare cases when they may be caused by other geological processes.



Graph for tsunami numbers between 1900 and 2010 (by E.N.Khalilov, 2010, according to
ITIC International Tsunami Information Centre data)
Tsunami numbers graph is marked in darker blue; straight-line trend is marked in lighter blue; forecasted
graph for 2010-2015 tsunami numbers is marked in red.


In producing long-term forecasts, we have been relying on the well-known principle which
long-term forecasts in all areas of science are based on. The principle is as follows: To look into
the future, one must study the past well.


REFERENCES:

1. Khalilov E.N. Global changes of the environment: threatening the progress of civilization [First report
of the International Committee GEOCHANGE, 30.06.2010]. International Scientific Journal:
GEOCHANGE: Problems of global changes of the geological environment, Volume 1, 2010, SWB,
London-Munich, pp.54-220, ISBN 978-9952-451-11-5, ISSN 2218-5798



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AVOID PERSONAL, SOCIAL AND NATURAL CATACLYSMS BY
TRANSDISCIPLINARY MONITORING AND INTERNATIONAL MULTILINGUAL
WEBSITE

Prof. Dr. Franz Halberg,
Germaine Cornlissen, Larry A. Beaty, Yoshihiko Watanabe, Kuniaki Otsuka, George Katinas,
Othild Schwartzkopff, Karl Hecht, Jinyi Wu, Ram Bahadur Singh & Abdullah al-Abdulgader
Presented with Vera Brandes and Dieter Broers for the project on
The BI Osphere and the COSmos, BI OCOS



Prof. Dr. Franz Halberg Honorary Chairman of the World Forum
GEOCATACLYSM-2011, Honorary Director of the Halberg Chronobiology Center
(Minneapolis, US)

Dear Mr. Chairman, dear forum participants,
Dr. Yoshihiko Watanabe, who will present his data at this meeting, monitors the blood
pressure of some of his patients for 7 days or longer. Thus, he happened to have data bracketing the
time of the magnitude 9 Sendai earthquake on May 11, 2011. He found an increase in blood
pressure average for 2 days preceding the quake and on the day of the quake. An introductory slide
marks the difference between his patients in red and controls from a different corresponding
calendar time in blue.
We thank Elchin KHALILOV for this opportunity to indicate how data showing antecedents
of an earthquake are needed to avoid an incapacitating brain attack that can leave a person
immobilized, unable to care for him/herself, and thus also learn about other natural and human-
made cataclysms.
Avoiding a high blood pressure is a step in the right direction, since it is a high risk of severe
disease. Chronobiologically interpreted ambulatory blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR)
monitoring (C-ABPM) renders the diagnosis of MESOR-hypertension more reliable and detects
otherwise undiagnosed risks of severe diseases such as a daily overswing, CHAT, that can occur
with or without an elevation of the BP-mean, as seen in Figure 1.

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Human systolic blood pressure bracketing Mag. 9.0 Sendai earthquake (11 May 2011)



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To detect these two separate (and other) vascular variability anomalies, VVAs, or disorders,
VVDs, one measures BP & HR automatically half-hourly around the clock for at least 7 days or
preferably automatically and continuously for a lifetime, for self-help in health care and to detect
circadian and longer cycles, as shown in Figure 2. The bottom half of Figure 2 shows analyses of
systolic BP (SBP) from 1989 in the language of cycles' frequencies between 2 and 0.7 years (y) on
the ordinate. On the abscissa is time. In the top half, again between 2 and 0.7 year, SWS, the solar
winds speed (recorded by satellites), has a real black (prominent) component at about 16 months
(1.3 years), a transyear. But at E, this transyear band is no longer detected. With a lag at E', the
corresponding frequency band in SBP has narrowed, is less black than before, has dampened,
but continues. The frequencies of solar wind speed, that still drive us, are built-into us and persist
in the absence of a counterpart in SWS.

The left side of Figure 3 shows a correspondence of frequencies in time in solar wind speed
(top), geomagnetism (middle) and terrorism (bottom). A prominent amplitude, in black, coincides
in timing and frequency in the 3 variables. On the right (as seen from peaks in the best-fitting
cosines acrophases, bracketted by their 95% confidence intervals), when the 1.3-year frequency
becomes significant in SWS and aa, again with a lag, terrorism also becomes intensified at that
frequency and persists when the environment loses that frequency.

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In Figure 4, the weekly component of heart rate is reduced but not eliminated when the
sunspot area has no about 7-day component, another example mapped by a remove and replace
approach, where the removal and/or replacement is done by the sun in Figure 4 for the biological
week, in Figures 2 and 3 for the transyear.

A man responds to environmental cycles by the criterion of the number of shared
frequencies. The reference standard is the association of solar activity and geomagnetism in blue on
Figure 5. In red, the mood of a man, tested around the clock for > 43 years, shares numerically
more frequencies with either the solar wind speed or with geomagnetism (red columns, right) than
do the solar wind and geomagnetism with each other (blue). Systolic blood pressure monitoring is a
proxy (in green) for the relation of mental functions to the environmental frequencies.


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Figure 6 takes us to single earthquakes on top and to many below. In the mouse, in the upper
left on top, the 2008 earthquake in China (magnitude 8) had antecedents in rodent activity. On the
top right, Dr. Watanabes data recall an increase in BP before the Sendai earthquake on 3 days
preceding it, not found below in blue, in controls of different kinds. The section on the lower left
shows mirror-images in frequencies of what the sun does to us, seen in the incidence of the last 331
major earthquakes, sharing part of a transdisciplinary spectrum. The section on the lower right
reveals the earthquakes' ~50-year cycle in human affairs, ranging from natality to crime and war.

On the left of Figure 7, we find a modulation by solar flares (A) & by sunspots of an ~0.41-
year-cis-half-year (C) which gains (black circles) or loses (open circles) statistical significance in
human heart rate with an ~3.2-year lag (top right), while the bottom right introduces the moon, as
documented in Figures 8-11.

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The lunar effect is seen in the period or frequency domain in Figures 8-10 and in the
sensitive phase domain in Figure 11. It started with the double tidal period of 24.8 hours in the first
two consecutive months of the self-rated vigor of JF, who reported half-yearly downtimes for the
prior 20 years, as shown in Figure 8. Figure 9 shows the 24.8-h period dominating the spectra of
JFs circulation, and Figure 10 shows multiple periods in JFs endocrine system, the result of a tug-
of-war among multiple periods shown to coexist in data intervals as short as 20 days.


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Figure 11 also shows different dominant frequencies in different hormones, circadian
behavior, above and below the horizontal line, a free-run from society, and apparent 24-h
synchronization (by medication) below this line.

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THE LANGUAGE of frequencies, amplitudes and phases lets us recommend that:
First, there is a need for affordable unobtrusive monitoring tools and for data storage and
continued automatic analyses on an international multilingual website (Figure 12).
Second, everybody should thus have his/her blood pressure analyzed to gauge strain, to detect
ascular variability anomalies, beyond the circadian frequency, where they already serve to prevent
severe, otherwise undiagnosed, sometimes drug-induced diseases.
In the language of frequencies, we also suggest that :
Third, such monitoring allows study of effects of the sun by a remove-and-replace approach,
as shown for the biological day, week, cis-half-year and transyear.
Fourth, social diseases like war, terrorism and crime, and natural cataclysms like
earthquakes, can be analyzed in the same language of frequencies for any further associations with
environmental cycles. As long claimed, but now resolvable in the frequency domain, human mental
functions, i.a., our mood and thus our actions are influenced by space weather, as is systolic blood
pressure, which can therefore serve as a gauge, as a proxy for mental functions.


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Conclusion

Cost-effectively, by endeavors toward stroke and other severe disease prevention via
C-ABPM monitoring, we may also get potential warnings and/or a better understanding of natural
cataclysms, indispensable for rational countermeasures.

How practical is the foregoing:

The task of a website in analyzing data from all comers is now being performed by 2 senior
individuals on a small scale; a manned international website could render the scale a worldwide
service.
The goal of an unobtrusive device for wrist C-ABPM has been met by an instrument that is
too expensive but there is documentation that an unobtrusive, affordable device is a possibility
below US$ 100.

Just as pressure is monitored in a car's tires, HUMANS MUST NOT FLY BLIND
i.a.
1. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
2. Tokyo Womens Medical University, Medical Center East, Tokyo, Japan
3. Paracelsus University, Salzburg, Austria
4. Halberg Hospital and Research Institute, Moradabad, India


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NATURAL AND HUMAN-INDUCED CATASTROPHES:
MODERN CHALLENGES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Prof. Dr. Nikolay Laverov,
Vice President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, President of the National Center for
Development of Innovative Technologies (Moscow, Russia)

Honorary Co-Chairman of the World Forum GEOCATACLYSM-2011



Dear Mr. Chairman, dear forum participants,

I would like to thank the organizers of this meeting for the opportunity to speak here about
the new challenges posed by natural and human-made disasters. I would also like to convey warm
greetings and congratulations from Yury Osipov, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
who takes a keen interest in the problem discussed here and wishes success to the meeting
participants.
For many years I have been dealing with the problems of natural and human-made
disasters, becoming more and more convinced that our understanding of these natural factors in
human lives is constantly increasing. And so, as the analysis shows, are the intensity and number of
natural and natural-anthropogenic disasters. Today they are a source of deep social upheaval, mass
suffering and death. The accompanying material losses have grown huge as well. This category of
threats in todays society is becoming a leading one. The strategy of parrying them is based on the
principle of the constantly increasing need for coordination of international efforts to develop a
forecast for impending hazards, risk assessment and management organization. The dynamics of
catastrophic events in natural processes more and more often falls within the category of natural
anthropogenic disasters. In fact, today we almost always have a situation when natural disasters
become at the same time human-made disasters, and large human-made disasters lead to grave
natural, environmental consequences. The development of such hazards as earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, floods causes destruction of the technosphere and profound social
upheaval. They have become the key destabilizing factor, posing a threat to the sustainable
development of individual regions and countries. Some of them have acquired a global character.
About 90% of accidents that have occurred in recent years have been caused by abnormal weather
conditions. Natural and human-made disasters lead to the accelerated negative change of the
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environment, the quality of which is deteriorating as well by the combination of disasters with
human-made accidents and tensions in the social sphere.
It should be noted that the rapid population growth, the creation of megacities most often
takes place in areas prone to natural hazards. Those, as you know, mostly are coastal, island
territories, slopes of volcanoes and high mountains, swampy floodplains where volcanic activity
and earthquakes are intense and frequent.

Seismicity of the Earth
Map: California Institute of Technology. Data: DEM ETOPO2, earthquakes NEIC Earthquake Catalogue 2000 2008, M>5.

Map: California I nstitute of Technology. Data: DEM ETOPO2, earthquakes NEI C Earthquake
Catalogue 2000 2008, M>5.

In these areas I have mentioned, tsunamis, landslides, mudflows are active as well.


Epicenters of tsunamigenic earthquakes from 2000 B.C. to 2008 A.D.

Typically, in such densely populated and underdeveloped areas no preliminary deep
geological-engineering and other exploration is carried out, which is needed to assess the risk of
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negative natural processes. The engineering preparation for construction of new industrial and
social facilities is poor. Even in highly developed countries, major cities and coastal megacities are
increasingly finding themselves in the center of devastating natural disasters, hurricanes in the first
place, aggravated by the destruction of technosphere. Economic losses are getting huge. Human
sufferings become repetitive and often widespread. The catastrophic processes increase the
pollution of the hydrosphere of the earth, oceans, coastal areas, continental rivers and lakes. Over
the past 30 years, pollution rates have exceeded industrial production growth rates. They are
accounted for by the increased discharge: municipal and communal services, chemical plants,
tanker accidents, oil and gas pipelines, drilling rigs used in offshore exploration in seas and oceans.
The widespread introduction of fresh water into public utilities combined with recent occurrences
of drought has led to two disastrous events: a sharp depletion of Earths water resources and soil
degradation.




In major regions of the world, 60-70% of river flow is taken to human physiological needs.
There is virtually no land reclamation or soil fertilization. The problem of providing Russia with
water resources is included in the list of national priority tasks which have to be solved, according
to the national security strategy. The problem of soil degradation, land reclamation and use of
fertilizers has become critical and needs more detailed consideration of the international
community since it is closely associated with food deficit and implementation of the international
food program.
Abnormal weather conditions and their negative consequences have become more frequent.
There have been major floods in Pakistan, China and Eastern Europe. The intense heat in the
central part of Europe in July and August last year was accompanied by forest fires, and they
clearly showed that we still have no scientifically sound and effective system for forecasting
changes in weather conditions. To forecast the weather, the idea of a linkage between climate
anomalies, regional fluctuations and circulation indices in the atmosphere closely associated with
the life of the World Ocean is increasingly popular around the world. Among them, a particularly
important role is played by pressure variability, temperature structures of the ocean surface,
intensity of cyclone trajectories and movement of oceanic waves. The El Nio and La Nia
phenomena have begun to play a significant role in blocking continental atmospheric anticyclones
that cause exhausting heat.
Among the periods of warmer seasons in Europe and East Asia in 1972, 1981, 2002 and
2010, the 2010 anomaly was the most severe for the entire period of observation and caused the
death of many people in different countries, including Russia.
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There is no doubt that the impact of natural disasters on economic development of count-
ries is growing. Macroeconomic effects of natural disasters are contradictory and are largely con-
ditioned by their intensity. The image below shows the comparative impact of cumulative damage
from natural disasters over the last 30 years according to World Bank and United Nations experts.
5 types of regions can be distinguished on the map depending on their portion of expenditure from
the GDP increase, required to remove the consequences of natural-anthropogenic disasters. It
demonstrates a wide range of variations from 0.5% marked in green to 100% marked in red.

Damage from disasters scaled by Gross Domestic Product

The direct damage is estimated at 13-15% of annual GDP growth in the world. The share
of the total damage in the annual GDP growth may reach 60% or more percent.
It is important to emphasize that in economically highly developed countries, economy
usually does not experience long-term overloads. Devastating disasters tend to affect the growth
rates of macroeconomic indicators in quarterly or semiannual periods. The average annual direct
damage is estimated in the first tenths of the gross domestic product and has almost no effect on the
consolidated annual budget. Unlike them, economies of developing countries experience a much
more significant burden of the said damage and social loss. Developing countries, especially in
Asia, bear the brunt of social loss: over 80% of the worlds total number of persons killed and
affected by natural disasters. The damage to their economies amounts to several percent,
sometimes even tens of percent of the gross domestic product, which leads to larger deficits of
national budgets. This is confirmed and supplemented by the fact that the differentiation of
vulnerability to natural hazards and disasters manifests itself within countries between different
social groups, by the level of welfare, significantly different demographic and cultural
characteristics.
Of the total number of people killed in natural disasters and catastrophes around the world
for the period between 1975 and 2010, about 65% were low-income people, 30% - people with
income below average, 4% - higher than average and only 1% - people with high income. This
higher vulnerability of the low-income population is apparently due not only to their limited
resources for protection of their own lives. For low-income people, the very significance of natural
hazard risks is, in our opinion, much less important compared to the social risks associated with the
daily struggle for survival.
Considering the ways to reduce natural risks, approaches and priorities for action, we bring
to the foreground the scientific understanding of natural disaster phenomena and the development
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of protection methods against their negative effects. It is knowledge that is the basis for
development of measures and application of safety standards, practical measures to reduce damage.
Strengthening of the state support for science, especially for earth sciences and engineering
disciplines which we today consider in a focused manner among these geocataclysms is necessary
not only to modernize the economy but also to ensure sustainable development of society.
It is equally important to dramatically improve the education level of the population and
training of professional staff. State support for science and education is not only an imperative to
ensure safety from natural hazards but also a cost-effective policy. In addition to supporting the
development of science and education to protect the population and territories from natural hazards,
the state should play a key role in the development of its institutional and organizational
mechanism as well. In a relatively short period of time, Russia has formed the legal basis for and
unified system of the organization of action for the prevention and elimination of emergency
situations, which has proved its effectiveness. In fact, it is recognized throughout the world. The
process of improving the system is far from completion and achievement of the desired level of
efficiency. The joint participation of the state and the public in this process is essential.
The most obvious is the need to provide financial and economic assistance to those affected
by natural disasters, creation of a system of fair distribution of functions between federal and
regional government agencies and foundations engaged in protection of the population and
restoration of damaged industrial and social structures. It is necessary to increase the expenditures
for preventive measures, including not only research I have mentioned but also monitoring of
natural processes, their forecasting as well as re-equipment of the response forces.


Disasters with fatalities >550 or with economic losses >650 millions US$ are considered.
Based on source data published by the Munich Re Group (http://www.munichre.com/).

Insurance against natural hazards has become an important direction in the activity of the
state as an economic entity and regulator. It is especially topical in Russia given the embryonic
stage of this activitys development. As convincingly demonstrated by the extreme weather
situation of summer 2010, the state had to take upon itself most financial and material assistance to
the affected regions and payment of compensations to affected residents. The lack of incentive in
households to bear costs for ensuring their own safety is undoubtedly a negative factor in securing
public safety. We see in the state a last-resort insurer which guarantees aid to the affected if the
estimated damage is higher than that supposed to be covered by insurance premiums for household
enterprises. This is happening more and more regularly. Private insurance companies cannot cope
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with losses caused by disasters which are becoming increasingly frequent. Over the last thirty
years, this figure was slightly above 33%, mostly being within the range of 15-20%.
Given the uneven development of insurance in different countries as well as the limited
capacity of insurance companies, the proportion of actual recoverable losses turns out to be low and
financial participation of the state is required. It is advisable to develop financial market tools
regarding insurance, reinsurance and removal of consequences of natural disasters.


The Chernobyl Disaster, April 26, 1986
Radioactive cloud (red color) over the Northern Hemisphere,
10 days after the disaster event


It is important that our meeting takes place in Turkey where programs on insurance as well
as those introduced by the World Bank allow governments to raise additional funds to reduce
catastrophic risks. In Russia, the practice of using such tools is virtually absent; therefore we see
development of insurance and financing of natural hazard risks as priority tasks of our and other
countries.
In conclusion, I want to note the growing trend of human-made disasters. In this category,
we include cataclysms caused by abnormalities of complex technical systems. They are most often
associated with local or regional threats. They are based on social reasons, and the human factor is
of great importance. Global human-made disasters are rare and even what happened now in
Fukushima (Japan) is still not classified as global catastrophes. Here is an example of the energy
sector where we see different kinds of threats associated with technological hazards. There are
widely known emergency situations involving loss of life during extraction of coal in coal mines,
technological accidents in mining and transportation of hydrocarbons. A real threat to the security
of energy supply in many countries including our country is posed by the wear of power equipment
and its poor quality. In particular, this was one of the main causes of this centurys biggest accident
in the nuclear power facilities in Fukushima, Japan, caused by a strong tsunami. One of the global
human-made disasters in the world was the explosion of the Chernobyl NPS reactor in 1986.
Radiation hazard of Chernobyl covers in fact the entire world and is undoubtedly global. It is often
compared with the effects of the military use of nuclear weapons in 1945 and tests of powerful
nuclear weapons in the atmosphere thereafter. The problem of proliferation of sensitive nuclear
technologies and materials would become a less security threat in the category of key global issues.
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Reduction of threats in this direction required taking measures, unique in their scale, by the UN,
leaders of the USSR, Russia, the US and other countries.
The high level of collaboration of the UN-established International Atomic Energy Agency
is unprecedented in its scope of solved problems and performance quality. In my opinion, this
example of international cooperation to protect the public from global radiation threats deserves
wide distribution, including for solving other environmental and disaster problems, in particular,
those associated with natural and natural-anthropogenic disasters.
Thank you for your attention.



PROBLEMS OF UNIVERSAL TERMINOLOGY IN THE MODERN SCIENCE:
WE NEED NEW PARADIGMATIC INSTRUMENTS


Prof. Dr. Walter Kofler,
President of the International Council of Scientific Development/International Academy of Science
Health and Ecology (Innsbruck, Austria),
Honorary Co-Chairman of the World Forum GEOCATACLYSM-2011



Dear distinguished guests,

First I have the honor to welcome you in the name of the International Academy of Science
Health & Ecology. I know you are coming from many countries all over the world and you have
different long distances to come to us. But this is not the only difference. There is a bigger
difference maybe between the disciplines which are here in this room and we agree there is a
need to integrate all of these different disciplines of natural and non-natural science, economy and
politics to solve the problems. We are here to discuss in which way we can do this.
So I will use these greeting words to focus on maybe underestimated dilemmas which are in
opposite to the wish we have all to solve the problems. There are some paradigmatic problems. We
have to change our knowledge and our instruments and I will speak about different dilemmas. One
dilemma is that indicators guide. Another dilemma is the dilemma of comprehensive
communication between different sciences and the need of more and more specialization and then
there is a gap between the creation of knowledge and the transfer into daily life and education.
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Maybe you agree with my following position: we should not expect to be able to solve the
problems for the future just with the weapons of the past. We need new instruments; we need
paradigmatic new instruments. The need for paradigmatic progress in application is needed, not
only the paradigmatic need in science. Maybe you remember the famous natural philosopher
Thomas Kuhn in his book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. He distinguished between
normal science on the basis of the given paradigm, and paradigmatic science on the basis we have
to change.
Such paradigmatic science is needed but we need to transfer to the young generation and to
the technique too. We need to extend the position of Thomas Kuhn, apply it to education and
transfer into daily life. We need more understanding for paradigmatic aspects in all other applied
aspects of sciences, in medicine, in ecology, in understanding of sustainability and last but not least
in economy and politics. Maybe you can say this is clear, this is done. There is a basic concept
about the key elements of a comprehensive, holistic understanding of our world and the integration
of nearly all scientific disciplines, natural and non-natural ones, for this tool. The comprehensive
view is the paradigmatic shift Thomas Kuhn is asking for. This is tool. It is true that society is
spending a lot of money, especially for universities and similar institutions and expects that they
will solve our problems within the available time thanks to this comprehensive interdisciplinary
position.
But is this expectation realistic? Thomas Kuhn, the world-famous philosopher teaches us that
normal science is done, and normal universities, they focus on normal science and therefore, on the
increase of the applicability of given theories and the application, and not on paradigmatic research.
But without paradigmatic research, there are no paradigmatic new technologies and other
applications. Therefore, I would say such an expectation is not realistic. If we are not able to solve
open dilemmas and bring such dilemma. Indicators guide unconsciously but effectively. We are
using indicators: about GNB we now have a very interesting report of a Nobel Laureate in France;
they have done this research work and it could explain we are guiding in the wrong direction.
There is also in science the instrument to measure universities, on the level of points they
make by publication. What is the consequence? Publications are higher ranked if you publish in
highly specialized papers. But exactly we need specialized, not only specialists; we have to link
this.
Therefore such a guide is guiding into the old direction, not to comprehensive science; to
higher specialization and the young scientist has to fulfill the requirements of the universities to
bring as many points as possible and he has no time to look over the border, he must be a specialist.
In which way can we solve it? Oh yes, we had a very long discussion in the Forum of Alpbach:
European Forum of technology and science. They said Yes, first you should be an expert, then
you should learn the new language to communicate. How many languages should you learn? Is this
only to extend your vocabulary? Or is it not totally different? Einstein tells us: each scientific term
is just a free invention of the human mind to make it easier to handle with our real world and our
virtual world. But its our invention on the basis of ontology, of your philosophy of the world, of
your paradigm; if you have different paradigms, maybe natural science and non-natural science,
there are idealistic and materialistic philosophies. There is no link, therefore you have to focus on
this what we can communicate with another and this is a very small part in which the terminology
fits together adequately. Do you believe really these are the real problems for the future? I dont
believe this. Therefore we have to think over in which way we can change this position. But at the
same time we need specialists. Without specialists we cannot use the power of our science. But
parallel to this, we need also paradigmatic science. We should not expect that this can be done by
traditional universities. But this can be done by organizations like the International Academy of
Science. We are well-established scientists, we are paid, we have not to confirm our position, and
we can spend time and do this.
There is a need, another gap we have to solve. This is the gap to transfer this quicker into
daily life and for this, we have to change the education system in an adequate way. And we have to
teach our students to think with the head of the other. This is the power of the future. And natural
scientists must be able to understand a philosopher, a social scientist, a psychologist, and a
politician. We would be very happy if the politicians would understand more science.
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I hope this is the way. And this is the way we can do within other structures. If I see my
friend Halberg, he has such an institution, which is done outside of the traditional way but highly
linked with the scientific regulations. If you look at the International Academy of Science and other
academies, we are doing this with our friends in Indonesia, in Pakistan, in Russia. If nothing is
coming out, we have the positive answer. What we are doing is we are thinking. To think is a
pleasure by its own, as Galileo Galilei teaches us.
Many thanks.



NATURAL CATACLYSMS:
QUALITY HUMAN RESOURCES ARE WHAT FINALLY MATTER
Prof. Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman,
President of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences,
Coordinator General COMSTECH (Islamabad, Pakistan),
Co-Chairman of the World Forum GEOCATACLYSM-2011


Good morning, everyone!
It is a pleasure to be back in Turkey, where I have many friends.

I come from Pakistan, a country which has repeatedly faced many disasters, and it is a
country where we had massive earthquakes a few years ago. Right now, we are going through
floods in the area of Sindh, which have displaced tens of thousands of people, and last year we also
had massive floods in the same province of Sindh. So it is a country with many and many problems
presently.
I would like to focus in my brief presentation on the role of quality human resources in
natural disasters because these cataclysmic hazards can be due to a variety of reasons but they can
cause destruction, disruption of infrastructure, economical and agricultural losses, death and injury,
diseases, sociocultural conflicts and various law and order situations.
Millions of human deaths have been caused according to Swiss Re and economic damage
from disasters amounted to 222 billion $ just in last year and there have been recorded damage
estimates of about 43 billion $ due to the Pakistan floods last year, 80 billion $ due to the Katrina
hurricane and staggering 240 billion $ of losses in Japan due to the earthquake.
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So, what we need to focus on is preparedness, realizing that the key is quality human
resources, and knowledge and technology have become the key resource for tackling natural
disasters.
In Pakistan, I was the minister for science and technology and also the minister for higher
education, and I persuaded the government of Pakistan to increase the budget for science and
technology by 6,400% and the budget for higher education by 2,400%, and this meant that we
could launch huge programs in development of human resources in a variety of areas. This was a
historic increase that took place.
Pakistan has a population of about 160-170 million people. We have 85 million below the
age of 19; 54% of the population is below 19. That is a very large young population and if we can
educate them in different fields, if we can provide them with the necessary skills in science, in
technology, in education, then the question is how we attract the brightest into education and
research, how we can excite the young minds about the wonders of science. Then we have to create
the enabling environment through research funding, through salaries, through access to literature so
that the brightest will opt for careers in science and education, if we are going to have a population
prepared to tackle natural disasters in an educated and sensible manner.
So, one of the things which we undertook was a dramatic change in salary structures. The
Pakistan perhaps became the first country in the world where a salary of a professor in a university
was increased so that it became five times the salary of a federal minister in the government. This
was done because we wanted to attract young men and women when they were deciding on careers
to take up education and research as their first preference.
We started a massive program for training of quality human resources; we started with over a
billion $ program to send students abroad to top universities; 11,000 scholarships were given. We
started the worlds largest full bright program to send students to top US universities. Each
returning scholar was given a 100,000 $ research grant so that they could, as soon as they return,
start working and operating.


Distribution of Approved Project Cost
So this massive investment that we have made in the last 8 or 10 years, human resources,
investments in scholarships in preparing the young because we need to realize that we live in a
world where knowledge is the key driver for socioeconomic development. Natural resources have
lost their meaning or have diminishing importance; the key is quality human resources and the
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ability to unleash creative potential of the young through the challenging educational environment
and through local opportunities to contribute.
So, when I was Minister for IT and telecom, we had only 29 cities in Pakistan which had
Internet.


Communication is a vital component to tackle natural disasters, the ability to communicate
rapidly.


So we rapidly spread the Internet within 3 years; it was spread to 2,000 towns, cities and
villages a phenomenal growth. The fiber was spread from 40 cities to 1,000 cities within a few
years.
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The Internet usage exploded,

and the cost of bandwidth was brought down.

These are the knowledge highways far more important than the road highways that we travel
with, because on these knowledge highways information travels, knowledge travels.
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We set up an educational research network and used this also for telemedicine so that when
the earthquake occurred in Pakistan, we were able to use telemedicine as a media tool to address
some of the medical emergencies. This connects high-speed internet; every university has 1-Gbps
connectivity and they are connected to 10-Gbps loops around major cities in Pakistan.
On this field we launched a digital library so that every student in every university in
Pakistan has free access to 20,000 international journals with back volumes and to 60,000
textbooks from 220 international publishers, a huge repository of knowledge including all the
relevant knowledge in geology and on disasters.
We started a distance learning program through series of lectures given daily from Harvard,
MIT or Tokyo. And I listen live and interactively to my students in Pakistan. So it is a different
world; it is a world very different from the world even 10 years ago, with the MIT open access
website started within Pakistan.
We placed a satellite in space which is used for education and distance learning.


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This huge increase resulted in tripling of the number of students within seven years from
276,000 to over 800,000 graduate students. The number of universities tripled; we set up centers of
excellence in different fields including a center for earthquake engineering which was established
in Islamabad at that time.
The gender balance has become much more even and equal.


A 600% percent increase in ISI research publications and a 1000% increase in citations after
removing self-citations.
This is what happened to the research output there were only 500 or 600 papers in
international journals, they have shot up to about 5,000, rapid increase in the international research
publications and this growth continues in a phenomenal manner because of our realization that the
key is quality human resources and it is research; universities are not about beautiful buildings,
universities are about beautiful minds, about creativity.


This is the PhD output from our universities including in geology and in areas which are
concerned with global weather patterns.
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A number of universities were ranked in the top 300 of the world as a result of this, and
some of them will hopefully be ranked among the top 200 this year.
A number of reports have been published; Nature, which is the worlds leading science
journal, has written four editorials on Pakistan, about how these changes have been made to make
education a key for socioeconomic development, and the comprehensive reports by the World
Bank, USAID and British Council.
This was my birthday gift last year; this was Natures editorial comments when they
complimented the work that we were doing.
The Royal Society, London of which I happened to be a fellow has published a book called
A new golden age which says that this is a model. So what I am trying to emphasize is that
preparedness for natural disasters requires education, and requires quality education, requires
research and requires bringing together the various disciplines so that a multidisciplinary approach
can be adopted to tackle natural disasters. If a country is not educated, if people are not educated, if
they are not prepared in advance, you have to take a holistic, comprehensive look rather than a
narrow look within each field to tackle this problem.
So this includes installation of effective warning systems, designing feasible emergency
responses for rescue and evacuation; also post-disaster development, media problem this can last
for decades. The earthquake that occurred several years ago in Pakistan we are still trying to
recover from that, and we have not recovered from the floods last year, we are then confronted with
another major flood in Pakistan. So: post-disaster development, reconstruction, strengthening and
renovation.
I am coming to the end here; I will really conclude that again I will emphasize that it requires
a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach with the provision of institutional, legal and financial
foundations and international collaboration. There is a lot of knowledge that exists; we have to tap
into this knowledge and use it to our advantage in the best way possible. The codes exist but many
of the developing countries do not implement the codes, the knowledge is there. So implementation
of building and floodway codes and avoiding building structures on areas which are susceptible on
geologic foundations or in fault areas is important.
A well-organized outreach and communication program this is again an extremely
important part so that we can face calamities in a better manner.
My last statement is to endorse the suggestion made in 2010, in the state of California, multi-
hazard mitigation plan that joint effort and collaborative partnership between scientists,
international organizations, government departments and various stakeholders from local to federal
governments and ordinary citizens are essential to minimize casualties and damage that natural
cataclysms cause to humanity. Final word: the way forward is education, education and education.
Thank you.
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GREETINGS TO PARTICIPANTS OF THE WORLD FORUM

Prof. Dr. Vitaly Starostenko
Academician, Director of the Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of
Ukraine (Kiev, Ukraine)





On behalf of the Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, I
welcome you here in Istanbul, in this very beautiful and very interesting place of the world.
We will have here a very good possibility to discuss the last scientific and practical results
in forecasting of earthquakes.
I believe that professor Khalilovs new ideas, the new seismic station associated with his
name give us the hopefulness that we will have progress in solving this very important and very
formidable task.
My big thanks to professor Khalilov for the seismic station which our Institute has now. It
will give us the possibility for more intensive work together with the international geophysical
community. I wish all you success and all the best in our common work here.
Thanks to Professor Khalilov and his colleagues for organization of this congress.
Thank you for your attention and all the best to all of you once more.
Thank you.






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SPECIAL SECTION 1
Earthquake Forecasting 2011

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS: POSSIBLE CAUSE OF EARTHQUAKES

Aftab Alam
1
, Zeeshan J ilani
2
and Muhammad Qaisar
3
Centre for Earthquake Studies, NCP, Quaid-i-Azam University Campus, Islamabad
1
geotabijadoon@gmail.com,
2
zeshanjln@gmail.com,
3
mqaisar49@gmail.com

Introduction

Large earthquakes may be extremely devastating in terms of loss of human lives and
property. A single large earthquake may release energy equivalent to hundreds or thousands of
nuclear blasts and may level entire cities in a matter of a few seconds, costing billions of dollars in
damage, not to mention the toll in human suffering. Several attempts have been made for
foretelling earthquakes by different means in the past. Scientific disciplines like geomagnetic [1],
energy accumulation rates [2], gravity anomalies [3], ground water levels [4], radon concentrations
[5], thermal infrared [6], crustal stress [7], abnormal behavior of animals [8], ground-based electric
fields [9], tidal forces [10], geo-electricity [11], seismic gaps [12], aftershocks [13], ground
deformations [14], Ion concentrations in ionosphere [15], planetary positions [16], include the
multidisciplinary areas in which research work is being carried out for the development of
methodology regarding short period predictions of large earthquakes. The triggering of earthquakes
may be tectonic in origin [17, 18] or it may also be non-tectonic such as changes in gravitational
force due to the moon and various planets, comets, asteroids, meteoroids etc. This has been used in
prediction of plate boundary as well as intraplate earthquakes [16].
The purpose of this report is to understand the planetary configurations in the solar system
and to determine if certain planetary configurations could result in triggering large earthquakes.

The solar system
Gravitational attraction of the Sun controls the movement of planets. The solar system was
formed billions of years ago, when gases and dust began to come together to form the Sun, the
planets and other bodies of the system. The planets and asteroids all move around the Sun in the
same direction as the Earth, in orbits close to the plane of the Earth's orbit and the Sun's equator.
The planetary orbits lie within 40 astronomical units (6 thousand million kilometers) of the Sun;
though the Sun's sphere of gravitational influence is much greater [19]. The Sun and the planets are
shown in Fig.1 [20].

Planetary configurations
Ancient astronomers devised names to identify particular positions of the planets relative to
the Earth and the Sun on the celestial sphere. This early system forms the basis for current
definitions of planetary configurations.

Inferior Planets
The inferior planets, Mercury and the Venus, in which their revolving orbits are closer to
the Sun rather than the Earth and are seen to undergo phases ranging from crescent to full and also
exhibit retrograde motion (Fig.2) [21].

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Fig.1. The Solar System
Superior planet
The planets moving around the Sun outside of the Earths orbit are called superior planets.
These planets are Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto and most of the minor planets in
which their revolving orbits are outside of the Earth's orbit. Superior planets orbit the Sun more
slowly than the Earth, and experience oppositions and superior conjunctions (Fig.3) [21].

Elongation
The elongation is the angular separation between the Sun and a planet or other Solar
System as observed from the Earth. (Fig.4) [21] Elongations are measured in degrees eastward or
westward of the Sun. The greatest eastward or westward elongation is the maximum angle between
the Sun and a Solar System (Fig.5) [21].

Specific names are given to three main values of the elongation


Elongation

Name

Description

0
o
Conjunction The Solar System lies on the same side of the Earth as the Sun
90
o
Quadrature
The Sun, Earth and Solar System lie at the corners of a right-
angled triangle
180
o
Opposition
The Solar System lies on the opposite side of the Earth as the
Sun

Opposition
A Solar System, such as a planet, comet or asteroid, is at opposition when it is on the
opposite side of the Earth from the Sun. The elongation of a Solar System at opposition is 180
o
.
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The inferior planets, or other objects with orbits closer to the Sun than the Earth, can never be at
opposition [21].
Inferior Conjunction
An inferior conjunction occurs when a planet lies along a straight line between the Earth
and the Sun. At this point, the elongation is zero degrees, and the body will have the same right
ascension on the celestial sphere as the Sun. Only the inferior planets, and asteroids or comets
which have part or all of their orbits between the Sun and the Earth, can undergo an inferior
conjunction (Fig.6) [21].

Superior Conjunction
A superior conjunction occurs when a planet, asteroid or comet, lies along a straight line
joining the Earth and the Sun, but is on the opposite side of the Sun from the Earth.
The elongation of a Solar System at superior conjunction is zero degree. A Solar System object
at superior conjunction will have the same right ascension on the celestial sphere as the Sun (Fig.7)
[21].

Present Classification of Planets
At the present time in astronomy the planets are classified into two categories, the
Terrestrial and the Jovian planets. The terrestrial planets include the Mercury, the Venus, the Earth,
and the Mars. These planets are closer to the Sun and have small masses and radii, rocky and solid
surfaces, high densities, slow rotation, weak magnetic fields, few moons and no rings. The Jovian
planets include the Jupiter, the Saturn, the Uranus, and the Neptune. These planets are also called
gas giants. They are far from the Sun, have large masses and radii, gaseous surface, low densities,
fast rotation, strong magnetic fields and many rings and/or moons [22].






Fig.2. I nferior Planets



Fig.3. Superior Planets




Fig.4. Elongation

Fig.5. The position of an inferior planet at greatest
western elongation (position A) and greatest eastern
elongation (position B). I n both cases, the
elongation measured is less than 90
o



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Fig.6. I nferior Conjunction Fig.7. Superior Conjunction

Methodology

Geometry of Planetary Alignment
When the planets of the solar system are aligned with each other then they exert some
surprising effects. If more than two planets, the Sun and other planet are aligned with our earth
more or less in a line with an angle of 0 or 180, then the gravitational force on the earth disturbed
and affects the surface as well as interior of the earth, mostly at those places which are weaker. The
earth is caught in the middle of force of gravity of the Sun and the planet. As the Sun has the
strongest gravitational force due to which planets revolve around it, this may change the orbit and
the speed of the Earth in its orbit and shift the centre of the solar system [23]. When the speed of
the earth changes the motion of tectonic plates may also change, making them more likely to slip.


Earthquake Forecasting

Earthquake forecasting on the basis of planetary alignments has not yet developed to a stage
to enable forecast of exact time, place and magnitude of an impending earthquake. It has, however,
been observed that there are some particular alignments at the time of many earthquakes in the
past. One of the important parameter that must be considered for forecasting of an earthquake with
the help of planetary alignment is the triggering distance that depends on the position of relevant
planets with regard to the Earth. It is the shortest distance to a particular point on its surface,
which is normally measured as Right Ascension and Declination. Right Ascension (RA) is
measured eastward from the Vernal equinox in hours (h), minutes (m) and seconds (s) and is
similar to the longitude on the Earth as shown in Figure-8. Declination (DEC) is measured in
degrees (), arc-minutes (') and arc-seconds ("), and is similar to the latitude on the Earth. It
measures how far overhead an object will rise in the sky, and is measured from -90 (South Pole) to
+90 (North Pole) with 0 at the equator [24]. Similarly the direction of planetary forces effectively
triggers the earthquake at plate boundaries if these are in line with the planetary forces [16]. For
this phenomenon more observational data is required.


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Fig.8. The Right Ascension and the Declination

Alignment of planets and occurrence of earthquakes

It is observed that most of the large earthquakes occurred during alignment of some planets
with the earth. Some examples are presented in the following section.

- An earthquake of magnitude 6.9 occurred on 19
th
July, 1968 at 08:13:00 UTC in San
Martin, Peru [25]. At that time the Earth was aligned with the Sun, the Mercury, the Venus
and the Mars. All these planets were in a straight line with the Earth as shown in Figure-9
[26].
- In Morgan Hill, California an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 occurred on 24
th
April 1984 at
21:15:19 UTC. There was a clear alignment of planets at that time as shown in Figure-10
[26]. All the planets were close to each other and definitely affected the gravitational pull
on each other and also the gravitational pull of the Sun.
- An Earthquake of magnitude 8.6 occurred on 28
th
march 2005, 16:09:36 UTC in Northern
Sumatra, Indonesia [25]. There was again alignment of planets and this time the earth is
adversely affected by the huge gravitational pull of the heaviest planet Jupiter. In this
alignment the Mercury, the Venus, the Jupiter and the Earth are aligned with the Sun. As
the Jupiter has the highest gravity as compared to the Earth and other planets and the Earth
is directly in front of the Jupiter as shown in Figure-11 [26], it experienced a huge
gravitational force.
In view of above mentioned examples it seems that there must be some relation between
occurrences of earthquakes with planetary movements this requires more observational data for the
forecasting of earthquakes.

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Fig.9. Alignment of the Sun, the Mercury, the Venus and the Mars with the
Earth at the time of the Peru earthquake in 1968

Sun

Mercury


Venus

Mars

Earth

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Pluto

Neptune


Fig.10. Alignment of the Sun, the Mercury, the Earth, the Mars, the Saturn and the Pluto at the time of
California earthquake in 1984



Fig.11. Alignment of the Sun, the Mercury, the Venus, the Earth and the
J upiter at the time of I ndonesia Earthquake in 2005

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Seismicity in 2009

By scanning the catalogue of earthquake data from USGS [27] and IRIS [25] it was
observed that in 2009 the seismicity rate all over the world is high as compare to last year. There
are also many strong planetary alignments in the year 2009. After the analysis of data it has been
observed that there is a gradual rise in the number of earthquakes having magnitude greater than 6
during the months of August, September and October as shown in Figure-12. There is also a perfect
alignment of planets with the Earth and the Sun as shown in Figure-13. In August there are many
alignments and in one such prominent alignment involved the Sun, the Mercury, the Venus and the
Mars. In another alignment, the Earth, the Jupiter, the Neptune and the Sun are aligned as shown in
Figure-14 [26]. Similarly in September and October, the Earth is aligned with other planets in
perfect angles. Gradual rise in number of earthquakes having higher magnitudes is clearly shown in
the Figure-12.


Fig.12. The graphical presentation of earthquakes occurred during 2009


Fig.13. The Planetary alignment during 2009

Fig.14. Position of different Planets on December
21, 2012. Future planetary alignments

Now a days there is a lot of talk regarding the events that are yet to happen in the year 2012.
The date, December 21, 2012 is considered to be the marking point of all events, starting from
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global illumination to catastrophe on the earth with a lot of many other things, forecasted by many
ancient people as well as modern scientists. Ancient Mayans had a surprising understanding of the
solar system that eventually led them to discover the long count calendar, namely, The Mayan
Calendar up to December 21, 2012. People who have a strong belief over the wisdom of the
ancient culture will be fascinated to know more about this aspect. However, people in the modern
world will take some time to realize the significance of 2012 planet alignment [28]. Accordingly,
there will be alignment of several planets such as the Mercury, the Venus and the Saturn with the
Sun on December 21, 2012 [26] but the Earth will not be the part of that alignment. The
Gravitational attraction will be shared between the Sun and planets because of that association. The
Jupiter has the strongest effect after the Sun and on that date the Earth will be closer to the Jupiter
(Figure-14). There will be more possibilities of earthquakes having greater magnitude in these
years because in both figures the Earth will align and gravitational pull of the Sun will be shared
because of these alignments. There will be chances of some earthquakes due to the attraction of the
Earth and the Jupiter. The areas near to tectonic plate boundaries will expect big earthquakes in the
coming years.


Fig.15. Future alignments of planets on J anuary, 2014
There will be some more alignments in 2014 and 2015 (Figures-15, 16), which will result a
strong gravitational struggle between the Earth and other planets of the Solar System [26].


Fig.16. Future alignments of planets on May, 2015

Conclusions

Gravitational Forces between the Sun and planets affect the movement of the Earth and
play a major role in earthquake occurrence. Slowing of rotation of the Earth can disturb the
movement of tectonic plates that results in increase in the rate of energy accumulation, increase in
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tectonic stress result in rupture at plate boundaries. Plate boundaries are the most affected areas
where an earthquake due to planetary alignment can be triggered. The magnitude, location and time
are dependent on the geometry of planetary alignments. Analysis of pre-historical earthquake data
show that there was a perfect alignment of planets in most of the cases when there was a strong
earthquake. Increase of occurrence of major earthquake of M 6 in 2009 was because of some
perfect alignments of the Earth with Terrestrial and Jovian planets. Most of these earthquakes
occurred along the tectonic plate boundaries which confirmed that these boundaries are affected by
the alignment and gravitational changes. In future, there are chances of alignments in 2012 but
these may or may not be as perfect as in the past years like 1968, 1984. Although the predictions
about 2012 planet alignment have been prophesied for several years by a number of ancient
civilizations, such as the Mayans, Zulus and many others but getting prepared for the future is
always a better option than anticipating the event with doubts and without any preparation. This is
highly essential for survival of human beings on Earth.

Acknowledgement

The authors are thankful to Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad N.I; H.I.; S.I., for his constant
encouragement and patronization of the project. The authors are also grateful to Dr. M. Ahsan
Mubarak S.I., for their guidance in preparation of this work.
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28. Jaan, J. http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Janani_Jaan



GLOBAL GRAVITATIONAL EFFECTS BEFORE AND
AFTER STRONG M8.9 JAPAN EARTHQUAKE OF MARCH 11, 2011

Elchin Khalilov,
1
Vitaly Starostenko,
2
Alexander Kendzera
2
, Ahsan Mubarak,
3
Muhammad
Qaisar,
3
Rani Sjamsinarsi,
4
J unun Sartohadi,
5
Wahyudi,
5
Cavit Yatman
6

1
Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes, London,

UK;
2
Institute of Geophysics of the
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine;
3
Center for Earthquake Studies, National
Center for Physics of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan;
4
Department of Public Works, Housing,
Energy and Mineral Resources of the Government of the Yogyakarta Region, Yogyakarta,
Indonesia;
5
Research Center for Disaster Management of Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta,
Indonesia;
6
VisioTek Quality Control Systems, Turkey, Istanbul.

Before and after the powerful Japanese magnitude 8.9 earthquake of 11 March 2011 some
gravitational effects were registered in large areas across the Eastern Hemisphere as far as 9,000
km away from the earthquakes epicenter. The gravity anomalies were measured experimentally
using ATROPATENA stations, new physical registering devices deployed in Indonesia
(Yogyakarta), Pakistan (Islamabad), Azerbaijan (Baku) and Turkey (Istanbul). The stations
continuously measure changes in time of the natural gravitational field in three mutually
perpendicular directions. It has been established that indications of the Cavendish balance can be
influenced by the dynamics of lithospheric stress fields altering the density and mass of large rock
strata under the measuring stations before strong earthquakes. The authors believe that those
stresses can be carried by tectonic waves. The effects registered provide a theoretical and
experimental basis for initiating creation of an international network for monitoring and early
warning of seismic hazards.
Variations of the measured values of the gravitational constant G have been repeatedly
registered by scientists from a number of countries (1, 2).
The results of research of variations in G were published in World Data Center (3). In
(4,5), it is shown that variations of the gravitational constant have a certain cyclicity.
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In particular, many years monitoring of the gravitational constant G has led the authors (4,
5) to the conclusion about variations in time of the measured G values starting from the second
digit after the decimal point. According to the authors (5), the observed variations can not reflect
the gravitational influence of the Sun, Moon or the planets of the Solar system. The authors (5) do
not rule out the possibility of solar activitys influence on variations of the measured G values.
In (6), the possible influence of super-long gravitational waves on indicators of the
Cavendish balance is referred to.
However, no research has offered any satisfactory explanation for variations in time of the
measured G values despite them being registered by a number of scientists (6).

2.1. Methodology

A new instrument for experimental study of the space-time variations of measured values of
G was created, called the ATROPATENA detector /Khalilov E.N., PCT patent, 2005/, (7).
ATROPATENA is a system of sensors closed and isolated from the environment, using the
physical principle of the Cavendish balance, with small weights on the ends of two (instead of one)
mutually perpendicular balance-beams hung by threads 2. Between the small weights large weights
are placed equally spaced 3, Fig.1 (a). The third measuring sensor, the trial mass 4, is hung on a
special elastic lever and makes available the possibility of vertical displacements during changes in
the relative values of acceleration of gravity, g. Variations of g are stipulated for lunisolar floods
and for the appearance of local gravitational anomalies, which can be caused by the changing of
density of rock mass under the instrument as a result of changes in their stress condition, and
consequently their mass. As seen in the scheme, on the balance-beams with the weights 2 and on
the lever of the vertical sensor 4, there are tiny mirrors on which three laser beams are directed.
Being reflected from the mirrors, the beams hit the sensitive optical matrix 6 and 7, where the
transformation of optical signal from laser mark into electric signals and their transmission into an
analog-to-digital converter occurs. After that, the digital signal is transmitted to a special block of
the computer as the next record in a special format. The software, written at the Scientific-Research
Institute of Prognosis and Studying of Earthquakes (SRIPSE), automatically records the
information in the form of separate files for a period of time determined by the operator.



(a) (b)

Fig.1. (a) the ATROPATENA instrument is shown schematically;
(b) Photo of ATROPATENA CRYSTAL Kh11 Station in Baku (Azerbaijan)
1 glass body of the detector; 2 balance-beams with small weights on the ends; 3 big weights;
4 trial weight hung on elastic lever; 5 laser emitters, 6 sensitive optical matrix for horizontal sensors,
7 sensitive optical matrix for vertical sensor.
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The entire sensitive system is placed into the special, isolated from the environment, glass
body 1, where a deep vacuum has been created and is constantly supported (10
-4
MPa).
Temperature sensors accurate to 0.1C are placed in different sections of the sensitive system and
connected to the temperature control block. For excluding the mechanical effects and for better
heat insulation, the vacuum body with the sensitive system is placed into transparent plastic body
which also allows for visually observing the work of the system Fig.1 (b).
Together with the noted sensors, ATROPATENA is also provided with a digital seismic
station using a three-component seismic receiver, the information of which is also transmitted to
the computer and is continuously digitally recorded in three channels X, Y, and Z.
The registration of seismic fluctuations is necessary in order to exclude the possible influence
of these fluctuations on destabilization of the sensitive system of the ATROPATENA detector and
the appearance of false anomalies caused by seismic processes. The remote control of the detector
and remote pickup of information minimize the external influences on the sensitive system. All
elements of the sensitive system have been made of non-metallic materials to exclude the influence
of magnetic fields and electromagnetic radiation on these elements. ATROPATENA is placed in
the building of the Scientific Research Institute of Prognosis and Studying of Earthquakes in Baku
(Azerbaijan). Since 1 April 2007 the station has been in operation, and has recorded high-quality
information about variations of the gravitational field over time in three axes X, Y, and Z, and the
seismologic information simultaneously recorded by means of the Tethys-SD wide-band digital
seismic station. First, ATROPATENA was provided for experimental research on the possible
influence of super-long gravitational waves on indications of the Cavendish balance. However, this
detector does not measure changes in the gravitational constant G but rather deviations of the
Cavendish balances indications, being influenced by altered external masses of geological origin.
It should be taken into account that astronomical masses such as lunisolar tides affect indications of
the Cavendish balance as well. But this influence is very weak and is reflected in the gravitational
constant values in the fifth and sixth digits after the decimal point (6).



Fig.2. Schematic sketch of actual orientation of the Cavendish
balance in the ATROPATENA station

On the gravitograms, the graph G
x
reflects the movement of the balance-beam X, and the
graph G
Y
reflects the movement of the balance-beam Y (Fig. 2.), the graph G
z
reflects the changes
of gravity, that is, the vertical movements of the trial weight. An increase of values G
X
and G
Y

means approaching of small weights on the balance-beams to the large weights, and a decrease
means moving away from the large weights. On the coordinate axis are shown the conventional
units, which reflect the deviation amplitude of small weights on the ends of balance-beams relative
to large weights. The registration of values of all three sensors is carried out with discontinuity in
one second. Using of red lasers with the length of wave 645 nm and special optical matrixes for
registration of the laser mark and its displacements allowed registering the deviations of laser-
beams on the angle to 0.1 degree. The whole process of registration takes place in digital form
automatically, without participation of the operator, and the received time series are archived by
means of a special program. These deviations correspond with variations of gravitational constant
G in the third and fourth digits after the decimal point.
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ATROPATENA stations measuring parameters

The ATROPATENA station measures the G index which is the difference between the
gravitational constant G (initially measured G value) and measured values of the Cavendish
balance at the measurement time G
F
:
G = G G
F

The ATROPATENA-AZ station (Baku, Azerbaijan) was used to register gravity anomalies
before strong earthquakes, namely in Japan on 7 May 2008 and Sichuan, China on 07, 12, 13 and
17 May 2008 (8). Since only relative changes of the gravitational field reflecting deviations from
the initially measured G value are important for researchers, a conventional index of variations of
the gravitational field G was taken as a basis for registration and subsequent analysis. To convert
the G index into a gravitational constant G measuring unit, the recorded G index should be
accepted at the first approximation as the G value starting from the second digit after the decimal
point. According to CODATA (9) as of April 2011, the value of the gravitational constant G is
6.674 28 x 10
-11
m
3
kg
-1
s
-2
, standard uncertainty 0.000 67 x 10
-11
m
3
kg
-1
s
-2
, relative standard
uncertainty 1.0 x 10
-4
, concise form 6.674 28(67) x 10
-11
m
3
kg
-1
s
-2
. So, only two digits after the
decimal point remain unchanged in the measured value of the gravitational constant G; from the
third digit on, the ATROPATENA stations register periodical spatio-temporal variations that
depend on the location of the recording device and its spatial orientation:
G
F
= 6.67(G) x 10
-11
m
3
kg
-1
s
-2
.
Where G
F
is the actually measured value of the gravitational constant at the measurement
time. Previous studies have found that G records obtained using the mutually perpendicular
Cavendish balance are not always synchronized and often lack a pronounced correlation (8). This
fact can also be observed from the records of all the stations before and after the disastrous
Japanese earthquake of March 11, 2011.
Along with measuring G, the ATROPATENA stations simultaneously register variations
in time of relative values of gravity g, using a microgravimeter installed inside the vacuum tank.
g values are also measured in arbitrary units to facilitate research. If necessary, the measured g
values can be converted to mGal.

Experiment participants
Among the participants of the experiment were organizations full members of the Global
Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (GNFE, London, UK, www.seismonet.org): Scientific
Research Institute of Prognosis and Studying of Earthquakes (Baku, Azerbaijan), Center For
Earthquake Studies (Pakistan, Islamabad), earthquake forecast research group at the Government of
the Yogyakarta Special Region (Yogyakarta, Indonesia), SETAC research and production company
(Istanbul, Turkey), The Institute of Geophysics of the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences
(Kiev, Ukraine).
Measurement results

The measuring done with the ATROPATENA stations located in Yogyakarta, Indonesia
(station 1); Islamabad, Pakistan (station 2); Baku, Azerbaijan (station 3) and Istanbul, Turkey
(station 4) have revealed that all stations registered intense gravity anomalies (deviations from the
gravitational constant G) starting from the second and third digit after the decimal point, Figure 3.
Figure 3 shows records (gravitograms) of all ATROPATENA stations on three channels. On
March 7-8, the first-channel gravitogram of the station 1 recorded three gravity anomalies located
next to each other and marked 1,2,3 followed by a period with no anomalies until March 13, 2011.
Starting from March 13, the station went on recording intense gravity anomalies marked 4,5,6. The
second and third channels also registered intense gravity anomalies before (March 7-8) and after
the earthquake, from March 13. A characteristic feature of the station 1 gravitogram records is the
presence of a pronounced period of the constant gravitational field from 13:58 on March 7 to 6:12
on March 13, 2011 designated as an area A during which the gravitational field was stable. So,
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the gravity anomaly before the Japanese earthquake was registered by the station 1 (Indonesia)
three days before the shocks. We have identified a similar area A for a relatively stable period of
the gravitational field on all gravitograms from all other stations 2-3. As seen in Figure 3, the area
A is gradually shifting to the right as the distance between the stations and the earthquakes
epicenter grows. In our view, the anomalies 1 and 2 are associated with two strong foreshocks with
magnitudes 7.2 and 6.3 which occurred on March 9 in the epicenter area of the Japanese
earthquake, preceding the strong earthquake of March 11. The gravity anomalies 4-6 are associated
with strong aftershocks following the main shock. Due to the large number of strong aftershocks
(38 aftershocks with magnitude over 6 from 11 to 17 March 2011 according to USGS), we have
been unable at this stage of investigation to identify the registered anomalies with specific
aftershocks. Therefore in Figure 3, only identified anomalies numbers are shown.
The station closest to the epicenter is station 1 in Indonesia (5,950 km), followed by station 2
in Pakistan (6,150 km), station 3 in Azerbaijan (7,650 km), and the station farthest from the
epicenter is station 4 in Turkey (9,020 km). Analysis of the records shows that the frequency
attribute of the anomalies depends on the distance from a station to an earthquakes epicenter. The
highest-frequency anomalies were registered by the Indonesian station Figure 3 (1), the
frequencies of the Pakistan station-recorded anomalies are comparatively lower Figure 3 (2).
The station in Azerbaijan registered anomalies with longer periods and a lower frequency than
those in Pakistan Figure 3 (3).
The lowest-frequency records were registered by the Turkish station Figure 3 (4).
The gravitograms in Figure 3 (1) and 3 (2) reveal all gravity anomalies 1-6. In the gravitogram
shown in Figure 3 (3), only anomalies 1 and 3 on the second channel of the station 2 are identified.
Anomalies 1-3 and 4-6, in our opinion, can be merged into a single anomaly with a long period as a
result of the attenuation of high frequency components at great distances from the epicenter of an
earthquake. In the gravitogram shown in Figure 3 (4), the anomalies 1-3 we have identified are
merged into a single large anomaly due to the attenuation of high frequency components. Region
A on different gravitograms is shown as higher or lower values of the gravitational field, which
is related, in our view, to different orientations of the Cavendish balance toward the earthquakes
epicenter. The shift in the starting time of registration of the region A toward increasing is clearly
recorded as the distance between the stations and the earthquake epicenter grows. This may
indicate wave-like behavior of the geological factor that causes gravity anomalies.


Parameters of tectonic waves


For a more detailed examination of the displacement of the identified gravity anomaly at
stations 1-4, let us have a look at the graphs in Figure 4. For comparison purposes, we have used
the channels which best demonstrate the nature of the identified anomalies. Figure 4 shows the shift
of the region A. We have chosen to study the dynamics of anomaly 3 which was registered
immediately before the main shock. In our opinion, it is this anomaly that was a harbinger of the
main shock since the registration of anomaly 3 was followed by a period of calm, that is, the region
A during which the catastrophic earthquake of March 11 occurred.
Below is given Table 1 with initial times of registration of the gravity anomaly 3, shown in
Figure 4.



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Fig. 3. Records of ATROPATENA stations from 07 to 16 March, 2011
(1); (2); (3); (4) are station numbers; A is the constant gravitational field area
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Fig. 4. Stations gravitogram records
(1) station 1, third channel; (2) station 2, third channel; (3) station 3, second channel;
(4) station 4, third channel; F anomaly immediately preceding the region A.
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Table 1
Station
(name and number)
Region (name)
Distance
between
station
and
epicenter
(km)
Date and
time of
registration
of anomaly
beginning
(dates,
hours,
minutes)
Channel
(number)
ATROPATENA ID, station 1
Indonesia,
Yogyakarta
5950
07.03.2011
20:57
3
ATROPATENA PK, station 2 Pakistan, Islamabad 6190
10.03.2011
03:35
3
ATROPATENA AZ, station 3 Azerbaijan, Baku 7650
11.03.2011
8:58
2
ATROPATENA TR, station 4 Turkey, Istanbul 9020
13.03.2011
06:22
3

As seen from Table 1, the greater is the distance between the recording stations and the
earthquakes epicenter, the longer it takes to register the anomalys initial time.
Consecutive recording of the identified anomaly 3 at all four stations 1-4 makes it possible to
calculate the velocity of the anomalys movement between the stations. Knowing the distance
between the stations and the time difference between the initial registrations of the gravity anomaly
immediately preceding the region A, one can calculate the speed of tectonic waves according to
the formula: V = S/t, where V is velocity, S is the distance between the stations and t is the
difference between the initial times of recording of the gravity anomaly 3.
We have calculated thus the velocity of tectonic waves travelling all the distance from station
1 to station 4. The results obtained reveal a big difference (about 6.5-10 times) in velocities
between stations 1-2 and between stations 2-3-4. How can this result be explained ?
Since we do not know the exact time when emission of tectonic waves from the focus of an
imminent earthquake begins, the observed picture can be logically explained by the fact that the
velocity of tectonic waves moving from the earthquake epicenter to station 1 must be substantially
higher than the velocity of tectonic waves moving to station 2. This is based on the fact that while
travelling from Japan to Indonesia, the tectonic wave propagates in the crystalline basaltic stratum
of the Pacific plate where the wave speed is much higher than the speed of wave propagation
within the continental crust of the Eurasian plate. The average velocity of longitudinal seismic
waves in the sedimentary layer varies from 1,3 to 3,7 km/s; it is 6,2 km/s in the granite layer and
between 7,2 and 7,8 km/s in the basalt layer. As the stations register gravitational effects on Earths
surface, it is obvious that they have to deal with velocities in the uppermost layer. In the young
oceanic crust of the Pacific lithospheric plate, the sedimentary layer is very thin (tens to hundreds
of meters) and its impact can be neglected. Taking the average speed for the sedimentary layer as
2,5 km/s and for the basalt layer as 7,5 km/s, we can calculate the speed ratio: 7,5 / 2,5 = 3. Given
that the tectonic wave has the same nature as the seismic wave, one can use the analogy as to the
difference in velocities of seismic waves for the sedimentary and basalt layers. So, it can be
presumed that the tectonic wave covered the distance from the epicenter to station 1 three times
faster than to station 2. In that case, the velocity of tectonic waves between stations 1 and 2 is 13.5
kmh. The analogy is quite rough since the tectonic wave has a much greater length and lower speed
compared with the seismic one. As a result, the difference in velocities of tectonic waves in basalt
and sedimentary layers may be higher. As we know the velocity of the tectonic wave, of great
interest is the possibility of calculating its other key parameters, namely its period and length.

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Fig.5. Determining tectonic wave period


Figure 5 shows how to determine the period of a tectonic wave. We identify the gravity
anomaly 3 registered at stations 1 and 2 with a tectonic wave, so the anomaly periods T
1
and T
2
are
taken as a basis for tectonic wave periods. Period T
1
7 hours and period T
2
7 hours and 12
minutes. Given that the values of the measured periods are similar, we shall accept T 7 hours as a
tectonic wave period.
We can determine the length of a tectonic wave according to the formula:
= V
where is the wave length, V is velocity and T is the period. To calculate the wave length, we use
the data of the measured periods and parameters from Table 2.

Results of the calculated velocity are given in Table 2.

Table 2

Stations compared
(numbers)
Distance covered by
wave between stations
(km)
Time difference between
initial moments of
anomaly registration
(Hours:minutes)

Velocity of
movement of
tectonic waves
between
stations (kmh)

1 and 2 240 54:38 4,5
2 and 3 1460 29:32 49
3 and 4 1370 45:20 30


The calculated parameters of the tectonic wave are given in table 3.
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Table 3
Stations between which
parameters of tectonic
wave are determined
(numbers)
Inter-station travel
velocity of tectonic
wave (kmh)
Measured period of
tectonic wave (hours)
Calculated length
of tectonic wave
(km)


1 and 2 13,5 7 94,5
2 and 3 49 7 343
3 and 4 65 7 455


So the calculations showed that the lengths of tectonic waves before the catastrophic
March 11, 2011 earthquake in Japan ranged from 94.5 km to 455 km.
There is no doubt that further investigation will give us more accurate results and enable us
to better substantiate the parameters of tectonic waves. Meanwhile, this pioneering research has
provided us with an idea about rough parameters of tectonic waves emitted by the focuses of
upcoming strong earthquakes.


Possible physical model


What physical model of manifestation of gravity anomalies can be considered for these
experiments? Currently, in our view, the most optimal is the model based on emission of slow
stress waves (tectonic waves) from the focus of an imminent earthquake immediately before the
shock. The possibility of existence of slow mechanical waves in the lithosphere has been shown
theoretically in the works (10, 11) and other studies. Subsequent research and works by
E.N.Khalilov (12) corroborate the generation of these waves by the focuses of imminent strong
earthquakes and possibility of recording them with the use of the Cavendish balance.
Besides, there are some features in the ATROPATENA station records that can be indirect
evidence of the wave origin of the observed gravity anomalies:
1. Before the powerful earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011 all ATROPATENA stations
recorded identified intense gravity anomalies. With the recording stations getting farther from the
earthquakes epicenter, the date and time when the initial record for the gravity anomaly was
written shift forward.
2. As the distance between the recording station and the earthquakes epicenter grows, less
high-frequency gravity anomalies and appearance of low-frequency anomalies can be observed.
Records from station 1, Figure 3 (1), reveal signals with the highest frequency. In station 2 records,
Figure 3 (2), the anomaly period is appreciably larger. At station 3, Figure 3 (3), the observed
record has an even lower frequency and merging of some high-frequency anomalies can be noticed.
Finally, only very low-frequency anomalies are seen in the records of station 4, Figure 3 (4). This
pattern of frequency change in the station records may be indicative of the attenuation of high-
frequency components of the wave as the distance from the epicenter increases and of the
predominance of low-frequency components at a maximum distance from the epicenter, which is a
characteristic feature of wave-like processes.

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Fig. 6. Tectonic wave generation model
1 - crust fragment with a fissure; 2 - movement of crust blocks along the fissure at the moment of plastic
deformation; 3 moment of rupture and movement of tectonic blocks along the fissure

Let us consider the process of rupture of a crust fragment during the motion of tectonic blocks
along the fissure plane as a possible model for the generation of tectonic waves before strong
earthquakes. Figure 6.1 shows a fragment of the Earths crust with a fissure before the deformation
process. Figure 6.2 pictures the moment when crustal blocks move relative to each other on the
fissure plane at the time of plastic deformation. Plastic deformation precedes the rupture of a
continuous medium and is accompanied by alternating voltage which can be a source of stress
waves or tectonic waves. At a certain moment of plastic deformation and motion of tectonic blocks,
the breaking point for crustal blocks adhesion strength is reached, followed by a rupture and
abrupt movement of the crustal blocks leading to emission of tectonic waves and an earthquake as
shown in Figure 6.3. Given that the plastic strain rate is much lower than the rate of motion of the
tectonic blocks at the moment of rupture, in the plastic deformation zone there can be formed slow
mechanical waves, that is, tectonic waves (stress waves). Plastic deformation of a medium is
accompanied by destruction processes, forming of minor cracks which grow and join together as
the deformation continues. The formation of cracks leads to emergence of low-frequency seismic
waves. This process can be detected by seismic stations, but these waves decay rapidly at a short
distance from the hypocenter due to the low energy. That is why station 1, the closest to the
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epicenter of the Japanese earthquake of March 11 registered high-frequency oscillations which
were decaying with the increasing distance from the epicenter. Stations 2-4 more distant from the
epicenter could only record very low-frequency components of the tectonic wave spectrum.
Conclusions
The conclusions drawn by the authors can be divided into two categories: experimental results
and the model proposed by the authors.

Experimental results:
- To monitor spatio-temporal variations of the gravitational field, special detectors named
ATROPATENA stations have been developed and made. The detectors continuously measure the
value of the gravitational constant G in mutually perpendicular directions and relative values of
gravity g.
- Before and after the strong magnitude 8.9 earthquake which hit the Honshu island of Japan
on March 11, 2011, variations of the Earths gravitational field were registered at large distances
from the epicenter (up to 9,000 km); they were measured with the ATROPATENA stations in the
following locations: Yogyakarta (Indonesia), Islamabad (Pakistan), Baku (Azerbaijan), Istanbul
(Turkey).
- Indications of the Cavendish balance when measuring the gravitational constant G are
influenced by spatio-temporal changes in external gravitational fields of geological origin, which
alter over time indications of the true values of G.
- Measuring the true value of the gravitational constant G on the Earths surface with
accuracy greater than the second digit after the decimal point is not possible due to the spatio-
temporal variations of the gravitational field as a result of the impact of geodynamic processes.
- For the first time, the true cause of variations of the recorded values of the gravitational
constant G has been identified. These variations were the subject of scientific dispute throughout
the last century.
Model:

The authors propose a model of emission of slow tectonic waves (stress waves) in the focal
region of an imminent earthquake as a result of plastic deformation of crustal layers immediately
before the rupture (abrupt displacement). Tectonic waves are a sort of mechanical waves, altering
the density of crust layers in the motion process. Alternating changes in the density of the crust
layers lead to periodic changes of the mass and, as a consequence, of the gravitational field within
the front of the tectonic wave. The monitoring of spatio-temporal changes in the gravitational field
can be carried out using special devices consisting of the mutually perpendicular Cavendish
balance and gravimeter. This analysis is preliminary and we are going to carry out further and
deeper examination of records of all ATROPATENA stations before and after the catastrophic
earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011. Joining all ATROPATENA stations into a single
information structure has made it possible to build a global network for geodynamic monitoring
and short-term prediction of earthquakes and its constituent system of earthquake forecasting,
which is GNFE (12).

REFERENCES:
1. Jens H. Gundlach, Stephen M. Merkowitz. Measurement of Newtons Constant Using a Torsion
Balance with Angular Acceleration Feedback Phys. Rev. Lett. 85, 2869 - 2872 (2000).
2. J. P. Mbelek et M. Lachize-Rey, Possible evidence from laboratory measurements for a latitude and
longitude dependence of G, Gravitation and Cosmology, 8, 331 (2002).
3. http://zeus.wdcb.ru/wdcb/sep/GravConst/welcome.html
4. Izmailov V.P., Karagioz O.V., Parkhomov A.G. Study of variations of the measurement result of the
gravitational constant. Physical thought of Russia. 12, 20-26 (1999).
5. Karagioz O.V., Izmailov V.P. Measuring the gravitational constant with the torsion balance.
Measuring techniques. Study of variations of the measurement result of the gravitational constant.
Moscow, 10, 3-9 (1996).
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6. Khalilov E.N. Gravitational waves and geodynamics. ICSD/IAS, Baku-Berlin-Moscow, 2004,
330 p.
7. Khalilov E.N. Method for recording low-frequency gravity waves and device for the measurement
thereof. Patent of PCT. WO 2005/003818 A1., Geneva, (13.01.2005).
8. Khain V.E., Khalilov E.N. Tideless variations of gravity before strong distant earthquakes. Science
Without Borders. Volume 2. 2006/2006. ICSD/IAS H&E, Innsbruck, 319-339, (2006).
9. CODATA. http://physics.nist.gov/cgi-bin/cuu/Value?bg|search_for=universal_in!
10. Elsasser W.H. Convection and stress propagation in the upper mantle. In: Appl. Modern Phys. Earth
Planet. Inter. N.Y., Willey, 223-246, (1969).
11. Lehner F.K., Li V.C., Rice J.R. Stress diffusion along rupturing boundaries. J.Geophys. Res., v.86, N
B1, 6155-6169 (1981).
12. Khalilov E.N. Global network of forecasting of earthquakes. New technology and new philosophy.
London, SWB, 2009, 65 p.
13. www.seismonet.org







"ArkNow" SOCIAL NETWORK FOR PREPARATION OF THE
POPULATION FOR NATURAL DISASTERS

Prof. Dr. Elchin Khalilov
Chairman of World Forum International Congress GEOCATACLYSM-2011,
Chairman of International Committee GEOCHANGE (Munich, Germany)
khalilov@geo-change.org

Natural disasters, in most cases, are the most dangerous because of their suddenness. World
practice shows that it is the beginning of an event when natural disasters cause the maximum
casualties and damage. During large-scale natural disasters, emergency services, even in very well-
prepared countries are not able to instantly access all emergency areas. The limited technical and
transport resources, destruction of roads, communications, energy communications, bridges, etc.
become a serious obstacle to rapid response and effective measures to save lives. Under these
conditions, the most effective factor is the preparedness of the population for self-survival. People
caught in an emergency often panic and simply do not know what to do.



Early acquisition of required knowledge to prepare the public in advance, including
psychological preparation, to independently counter possible natural disasters can be safely put in
the ranks of the primary tasks of the international community. However, experience shows that
most people do not want to spend their time on attending special training courses. In addition, there
are no uniform international guidelines and training programs to prepare the public to confront
natural disasters. Currently, the most complete and effective instructions for preparing population
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for natural disasters are given on the FEMA website (US). Therefore, first of all it is necessary to
develop unified international regulations for the preparation of population to act correctly before,
during and after natural disasters. This question, in our opinion, should be decided at the UN level.
The second, equally important task is to adapt these instructions for different age groups and social
strata. For example, for children in nursery and elementary schools, university students,
instructions must be written in an understandable form for each age group and their detail and
complexity must increase for high school students and employees of companies and enterprises.



It is necessary to adopt specific international and national laws obliging all types of schools
and pre-school educational institutions to include instructions for preparations for independent
actions before, during and after emergencies in education and training programs.
Administration of all companies and institutions should be required to organize in a
mandatory manner trainings to prepare employees for self-survival during natural disasters.
It is necessary to launch an international multilingual TV channel that would air
educational films, provide necessary information, train viewers online to act before, during and
after disasters. By a UN decision, this TV channel should be required to be broadcast in all
countries.
This is a huge job that requires an immediate start to be implemented.
Active development of social networks and other types of online communities has showed
their extremely high efficiency for the formation of public opinion and transfer of necessary
information to many people in the shortest time possible. Therefore, in our view, it would be very
effective to use this experience to prepare the worlds population for self-survival during natural
disasters and other emergencies.



An example of the first attempt to create an Internet community to prepare of the worlds
population for natural disasters is the specialized social network ArkNow.net (www.arknow.net)
established in 2011 following an initiative of the International Committee GEOCHANGE on
Global Geological and Environmental Change (Germany), World Organization for Scientific
Cooperation WOSCO (Germany) and Global Network for Forecasting of Earthquakes GNFE (UK).
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The goal of the Social Network ArkNow (ArkNow.net) is to create an informational
and social environment to reduce risks and negative effects of natural disasters on humans.

Objectives of the Arknow.net are:
Providing information about all natural disasters occurring in the world:
Creating informational opportunities for cooperativeness among the ArkNow.net members;
Providing knowledge on how to act in the event of natural disasters;
Giving the chance to send urgent information to international and national rescue services;
Creating an opportunity for people to share their experience of survival and rescue with each
other;
Making it technically possible for each ArkNow.net member to transmit online video and
photo images from a disaster zone to the ArkNow.net online television system I See using
various technical appliances (web-cameras, mobile phones, professional camcorders etc.)
Creating a technical opportunity for ArkNow.net members to transmit information from
disaster zones to be placed in the SOS information section;
Giving unbiased commentaries on the occurring natural events from independent
professional experts;
Providing information on the latest technologies for protection and rescue of people during
natural disasters and on personal protective equipment.

Such social networks need to be supported by authoritative international organizations and
governments for rapid and effective development.



NATURAL CATACLYSMS AS A GLOBAL FACTOR OF INFLUENCE
ON THE WORLD ECONOMY

Z.A. Samedzade
1
, E.N. Khalilov
2
1
Azerbaijan Union of Economists, Baku, Azerbaijan,
2
International Committee GEOCHANGE, Munich, Germany

Natural cataclysms have a devastating effect on the stable development of the world
economy, causing enormous economic damage to countries in which they occur.
Disregarding the significant impact of natural factors on the global economy during the sharp
increase in the number and energy of natural disasters can greatly exacerbate the negative
developments in the global economic system.
Analysis of the growth dynamics of the economic damage caused by natural disasters leads
to very disappointing conclusions. If the economic losses from natural disasters in 2009 totaled $
63 billion, according to the largest Swiss insurance company Swiss Re, in 2010 they amounted to $
222 billion, three times the economic loss for the year 2009. Meanwhile, economic losses from
natural cataclysms in the first quarter of 2011 alone exceeded $ 320 billion, most of which related
to the economic damage inflicted on Japan by the strong earthquake with M8.9 and devastating
tsunami that occurred March 11, 2011. The direct economic damage alone caused to the Japanese
economy is $ 280-309 billion.
By 15 September 2011, the global economys losses from natural disasters according to the
lowest estimates by the International Committee GEOCHANGE have exceeded $ 400 billion. This
figure takes into account the economic damage inflicted on the Japanese and world economy as a
consequence of the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami, from March to September 15, 2011. If the
trend for the number and energy of natural cataclysms to grow continues, by early 2012 the world
economy will suffer disaster losses exceeding $ 450 billion.
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Conclusions and suggestions

- In the first place, the negative impact of natural disasters affects the insurance sector,
involving the global banking system and destabilizing thus the entire global financial system.
- Taking into account the observed tendency of the significantly increased number and
energy of natural disasters worldwide, appropriate preventive measures must be taken to stabilize
the world economic system. For this purpose, it is suggested that UN-sanctioned international legal
norms and laws be developed and adopted to effectively coordinate both the insurance sector and
the entire global financial system in times of large-scale natural disasters. It is necessary to improve
the international legal rules governing the provision of financial support and humanitarian aid to
countries and regions affected by natural disasters.




SEISMICITY AND SEISMIC PROTECTION IN UKRAINE

Vitaly Starostenko
1
, Olexander Kendzera
2
, Olga Legostaeva
3
, Liudmila Farfuliak
4

1,2,3
The IGF NAS of Ukraine,
4
Institute of Geophysics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
vstar@igph.kiev.ua, kendzera@igph.kiev.ua, olgal@igph.kiev.ua, myronivska@list.ru

Experience of catastrophic earthquakes that occurred one after another in Haiti 12/01/2010,
with Mw = 7.0, in Chile 01/12/2010 with Mw = 7.0 and in Japan 11/03/2011, with Mw = 9.0,
makes seismologists to re-evaluate their effects and to compare the situation with the seismic
protection in these countries with the situation in Ukraine. These earthquakes are confined to the
powerful seismically active zone of the planet. Earthquake 11/03/2011 in Japan, with Mw = 9.0 is
one of the biggest destructive event at the last time not only in Japan but in the world.
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Seismologists have to pay attention of this global disaster. The seismogram of this earthquake that
occurred at 05:46:23 UTC Near East Coast Honshu and was recorded at Kiev IRIS station (Kiev,
Ukraine) is shown in Fig. 1.


Fig. 1. The wave form recorded at Kiev I RI S station (Kiev, Ukraine) of 11.03.2011 earthquake in J apan
with Mw = 9.0, =73.84
0
, h=21.9 km, =38.29
0
N and =142.49
0
E.

Unfortunately, as seen from a comparison of two maps, presented in Fig. 2 of Maximum
seismic hazard (MSH) map of the territory near east coast Honshu [1], the intensity of seismic
manifestations of the earthquake was, in fact, higher than predicted by seismologists to map of the
Japan MSH.

Fig. 2. a) predicted maximum intensity seismic hazard map near east coast Honshu in J apan,
b) the observed intensity data map for earthquake that occurred at 05:46:23 UTC 11/03/2011 [1]

We have to note, that Japan catastrophic earthquake was happened in the world active
tectonic belt associated with the zone of collision of the thin Pacific Plate with the Eurasian Plate,
as seen in Fig. 3, where Japanese seismologists estimated rupture zone and mechanism of
earthquake preparation [2,3].
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Fig. 3. The seismic map of estimated rupture zone of the thin Pasific Plate collision with the Eurasian
Plate and the origin of 11.03.2011 earthquake. I n the right side of figure the scheme of the Eurasia-
Philippine-Sea-Pacific triple point is shown [2, 3]

Earthquake in Haiti, as seen in Fig. 4 [4], occurred within a seismically active zone
associated with the zone of collision of the Caribbean plate with the South America plate. The
earthquake near Chile is with the feat of the Nazca plate under the South American continental
plate. In both cases, the earthquake occurred in areas where strong seismic events are not
uncommon, which made seismologists and leadership of both countries in advance to shape up for
strong earthquakes.
Evidently, as seen from a comparison of maps of general seismic zoning (GSZ) of the
territory of Haiti, presented in Fig. 5 [6], and maps of macroseismic manifestations of the
01/12/2010 earthquake, as presented in Fig. 6 [7], the intensity of seismic manifestations of the
earthquake was, in fact, higher than predicted by seismologists to map of the Haiti GSZ.


Fig. 4. Lithosphere plates in the western hemisphere of the Earth (clipping from maps of [5])

The level of projected acceleration of seismic vibrations The level of projectd acceleration
of seismic vibrations on the map, which, with probability 90% will not be exceeded over the next
50 years, corresponds to the average acceleration of seismic vibrations in the 7-balls earthquake. In
fact, during the 12/01/2010 earthquake, as seen in Fig. 6, in the Port-au-Prince capital city of Haiti
were observed 9 balls macroseismic effects (on 12 point scale). Clearly, projected onto the 7-ball
impact homes and buildings could not remain 9-balls intact.
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Fig. 5. General seismic zoning map of the Haiti island and the neighboring areas [6].
Color denotes the projected value of acceleration of seismic vibrations in m/s
2
, which is likely 90% will not
be exceeded over the next 50 years, which corresponds to the average period of occurrence of the maximum
earthquake every 500 years


As a result, the main shock and several hundreds of aftershocks have killed more than 280
thousand people, several million people lost their homes and jobs. According to the Inter-American
Development Bank's the losses caused by the earthquake could reach 14 billion dollars [8]. In
addition, the experience of similar past disasters is well known that after their income level of the
population is reduced on average by 30%, despite the assistance provided by the international
community.

Fig. 6. Map of 01/12/2010 earthquake with Mw =7.0 macroseismic manifestations on the Haiti island [7].
Color denotes the intensity of the recorded seismic tremors in the points of modified Mercalli scale.

The earthquake near the coast of Chile, was much more powerful, but according to official
information, the number of its victims was much lower (780 people), primarily because the country
for many years considerable attention devote for earthquake-protection design and construction, as
well as for the protection from tsunamis. Especially intensive, this work is carried out after the
22/05/1960 quake with Mw = 9.5, which is considered as the strongest since 1900, when the
registration of seismic events in the world have been widely used the instrumental techniques.
Comparison of the earthquakes effects in Haiti and Venezuela shows the importance of properly
assessing the level of Seismic risk of the sites of existing and planned buildings and structures.
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Adopted at this time in the world the concept of seismic protection includes the need for protection
from earthquakes by each investor, owner and developer who are building houses and industrial
buildings in seismic zones. At the same time, it should be noted that self-investors, owners and
developers are unable to obtain the seismological information about the magnitude of the
parameters of the maximum seismic effects, which with a given probability of exceeding can be
realized at the site of the existing or projected development, and is needed for its seismic
protection. This task must be decided by the State. In particular, the Ministry of Regional Policy
and the building of Ukrainian together with the National Academy of Sciences have developed and
introduced into operation at 2007, State Building Codes B.1.1:12-2006 Building in seismic
regions of Ukraine [9], where in Appendix A, the table of communities with specification of
seismic shaking projected intensity, and in Appendix B the general seismic zoning maps, which
shows the predicted intensity of seismic shaking on a MSK-64 macroseismic scale, which is 90, 95
and 99 percent will not be exceeded over the next 50 years. In the main text of this document
provides rules for the use of seismic data as well as rules for the protection of structures and
buildings in the different seismic conditions [9].
The territory of Ukraine to the south and south-west is comprehended by the influence of
powerful seismically active zone of the planet, which resulted from the collision of large tectonic
plates: Eurasian, African, Arabian and Indian. The belt stretches from the Azores through the
Mediterranean and Black Sea, Caucasus, Central Asia and further to the Hindu Kush, Tibet - the
island of Sumatra, and further south, where it connects with the Pacific planetary seismically active
zone. Influence from this zone extends to the western regions of Ukraine, Bukovina, and south-
western part of the Odessa region, south of Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporozhye regions and the
territory of Crimea. The belt includes the Carpathian arc with strong subcrustal earthquakes in the
Vrancea area, which in the past 5 times shaken not only the territory of Ukraine, but even Moscow
and St. Petersburg. Earthquakes in the territory of Ukraine were in the past, recorded by seismic
stations and are felt by the people at present and, unfortunately, will be in the future. Seismic risk
in Ukraine is high also because of insufficient knowledge of local seismicity and the
understatement of the real seismic hazard assessment regulatory by document SNIP-II-7-81
"Building in seismic areas" [8], which operated in Ukraine until 2007. Determination of the real
parameters of seismic hazard requires instrumental seismological observations of the local seismic
activity and of the powerful remote seismic events. In the conditions of increasing anthropogenic
loads and a significant depreciation of fixed assets in Ukraine the risks associated with the
hazardous effects of earthquakes significantly increased, which, in turn, increases the level of
technological risk in different sectors of the economy. Accompanied by faults, landslides,
mudflows, tsunamis and other hazards, earthquakes can cause considerable material and social
consequences.
In recent years, with a sufficiently short time intervals, there were a catastrophic earthquake
(12.05.2008 in China with Mw = 7.8; 05.10.2008 in Kyrgyzstan with Mw = 6.6; 06.04.2009 in
Italy with Mw = 6.3; 13/01/2010 at the Haitian with Mw = 7.0; 26.02.2010 in Japan with Mw =
7.2, 27/02/2010 in Chile with Mw = 8.8; 04.03.2010 in Taiwan with Mw = 6.4; 11.03.2011 in
Japan, with Mw = 9.0 etc.), which led to deaths and huge financial losses. In most cases, the
destruction of structures and buildings is due to underestimation of the real seismic hazard of areas.
Losses from earthquakes can be substantially reduced with appropriate technical and organizational
preparations for them. Properly determining the level of seismic hazard and its inclusion could to
avoid casualties and material losses minimized.
In preparation for future earthquakes in the Ukraine it is current studies of the seismic
resistance of existing buildings and structures in areas where the real seismic hazard on the new
seismic GSM-2004 maps proved to be higher than specified on the regulatory CP-78 map [9]
current up to 2007. The input data should serve on observations of local and teleseismic
earthquakes at seismic stations located in studied areas, or as close as possible to them. The world's
modern science-based concept of effective seismic protection include: the identification of
quantitative parameters of real seismic hazard and risk reducing, the vulnerability of populated
areas by improving the seismic resistance of existing buildings and structures, development and
implementation of earthquake-resistant construction norms that meet the real seismic hazards,
monitoring of seismic design and regular maintenance of buildings and facilities, raising awareness
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by education and training, early warning of the emergence of a strong earthquake and rapid
response, rehabilitation victim populations and areas; insurance against the effects of
earthquakes.Experience in the field of seismic protection of such developed countries as Japan,
USA, Canada, France, Italy and others, shows that the basis of seismic protection in Ukraine
should be the introduction of earthquake-resistant design and construction of housing and industrial
facilities on the basis of objective knowledge about the quantitative parameters of real seismic
hazard in their areas of deployment and on concrete construction sites.
Knowledge of the real seismic hazard, along with reliable data on the seismic vulnerability
of structures is necessary for earthquake resistant design and develops measures to reduce the
seismic risk. The main link, which provides objective data for activities of protection against
earthquakes, is seismic observations. Institute of Geophysics of NAS provides activity of a seismic
stations network, which actually performs the role of the national seismological network for
providing information for all seismic protection works. The network provides standardized data on
seismic manifestations on the territory of Ukraine. On these data the evidence-based forecasts of
seismic hazard values are determined. It is necessary for central and local authorities to ensure the
stable development of the seismic regions, as well as for the research institutes of other ministries
and agencies working in related industries of earthquake-resistant design and construction.
According to the Cabinet of Ministry of Ukraine ruling from 28.06.1997, 699 in the IGPh
of NAS of Ukraine the National Center for Seismic Data and the two regional centers: Carpathians
(Lviv) and Crimea (Simferopol), which continuously receives the data of instrumental observations
from the seismic network and geophysical stations of Ukraine - are operate. At present, the
observation network consists of 37 seismic and geophysical stations, including reference seismic
station "Lviv", "Uzhgorod", "Mizhhirria", "Kosiv", "Kiev-IRIS, Simferopol, Yalta, "Sevasto-
pol", "Rahov", "Kamianets' Podolsky, magnetic observatory Dymer", "Odessa", "Ivano-Frankove"
and several regional stations. In 2009, opened two new seismic station: "Nicholaev" and
"Shutskoe." Results of seismic observations are widely used in solving problems in key directions
of fundamental research of IGPh of NAS: the study of the tectonics, structure, geodynamics, and
evolution of continental and oceanic lithosphere; construction three-dimensional integrated
geophysical and petrophysical models of geological structures in order to predict mineral
development and introduction of new technological systems for processing and interpreting
geophysical data; geophysical studies of the environment in order to predict seismic hazards and
other threats to natural phenomena.
Geodynamic processes that are constantly changing stress-strain state of geological environ-
ment, not only in seismically active zones, but as it is now scientifically proven, in the territories of
ancient platforms of planet, requires permanent monitoring tools.
The integration of seismic and other geophysical studies can learn communication
geophysical fields with the preparation of strong earthquakes sources.

Conclusion

Earthquake-resistant design and development of anti-seismic measures require knowledge of
the quantitative parameters of the real seismic hazard and seismic data on the vulnerability of
structures. The main link supplying objective data for activities to protect against earthquakes are
seismological observation. To obtain reliable baseline data is necessary to ensure the further
expansion (increase in the number and uniformity of the distribution) network of seismic stations
and its re-equipment by modern equipment and software.
At the state level is necessary to provide a centralized ordering and funding for the regular
(once per 10 years) updating maps of general seismic zoning of the territory of Ukraine and for the
improvement of regulations on earthquake-resistant design and construction, taking into account
new data on the geodynamic situation in the country's territory and using new improved methods of
quantification of real seismic hazard on the construction and maintenance sites.



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REFERENCES:
1. David Cyranoski. Japan faces up to failure of its earthquake preparations. Systems for forecasting, early
warning and tsunami protection all fell short on 11 March. - Source: Kyoto University & Japan Met.
Agency, Tokyo: Nature, Vol 471, 31/03/2011. - 557 p.
2. Mw 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan Earthquake, on March 11th, 2011 at 05:46 UTC //Centre
Sismologique Euro-Mditerranen. - http://www.emsc-csem.org/Page/index.php?id=196
3. http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/alert/index.php?id=av576;INFO&date=2011-03-11
4. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ru/2/22/Tectonic_plates(rus).png
5. http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2010/eq_100112_rja6/neic_rja6_w.html
6. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/shakemap/global/shake/2010rja6/
7.http://www.rbc.ua/rus/newsline/show/mezhamerikanskiy_bank_razvitiya_ushcherb_prichinennyy_zemletry
aseniem_gaiti_mozhet_dostigat_14_mlrd_doll_16022010
8. State building codes SBC B.1.1-12: 2006 "Building in seismic regions of Ukraine. - Kiev: Ministry of
Construction, Architecture and Housing and Communal Services of Ukraine, 2006. 84 p.
(In rus).
9. Seismic zoning of the USSR. (Methodological framework and regional description of the 1978 map) / /
Editor. V.I. Bune and G.P. Gorshkov - M.: Nauka, 1980. - 308 p. (In rus).




ASSESSMENT OF THE SEISMIC SITE EFFECTS BASED ON EARTHQUAKE
RECORDINGS AND I N SI TU BOREHOLE MEASUREMENTS IN BUCHAREST,
ROMANIA

Andrei Bala
1
, Alexandru Aldea
2
, Stefan Florin Balan
1
, Cristian Arion
2
1
National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest-Magurele, Romania
2
Technical University for Civil Engineering (UTCB), Bucharest, Romania
1
bala@infp.ro
1. SEISMIC MEASUREMENTS PERFORMED IN THE FRAME OF THE NATO SFP
PROJECT 981882
The latest results in the shear wave velocity measurements were obtained in the frame of
the NATO SfP Project 981882 in the years 2006-2007 and they were reported by [4] and [5], see
Table 1. The mean seismic velocities computed for the 10 particular sites in Table 1 are
representative values for the 6 types of Quaternary sedimentary layers in Bucharest City, the 10
sites being spread mainly in the city centre (see Fig. 1). The mean seismic velocities in the Table 1
can be correlated with averaged Vs values obtained by direct measurements and cited by other
sources.

Fig. 1. Map with area under investigation. The
metropolitan region of Bucharest, Romania, is
mainly inside the characteristic ring road with a
diameter of about 20 km. Residential and industrial
areas are indicated in grey; lakes, channels and
rivers in black. The ten borehole sites are shown as
circles and numbers which correspond with those
from Table 1. Sites with broadband instruments
during the URS experiment [6] (Ritter et al. 2005)
are indicated with triangles.
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Mean weighted values for V
p
and V
s
are computed for each site (borehole)
according to the following formula:



(1)


In equation (1) h
i
and V
Si
denote the thickness (in meters) and the shear-wave velocity (in
m/s) of the i-th layer, in a total of n layers, found in the same type of stratum [2] and [7]. According
to the same code, the weighted mean values
S
V
, computed for at least 30 m depth, determine 4
classes of the soil conditions:
1. Class A, rock type:
S
V
> 760 m/s;
2. Class B, hard soil: 360 <
S
V
< 760 m/s;
3. Class C, intermediate soil: 180 <
S
V
< 360 m/s;
4. Class D, soft soil:
S
V
< 180 m/s;
All the V
S-30
values in Table 1 belong to type C of soil after this classification, after [2] and [7].

Table 1.
Mean weighted seismic velocities for the first 6 (of 7 types) of Quaternary layers in
10 boreholes in Bucharest City. A description of the geologic layers is found in [8] and [9]
Geologic
stratum type
1 2 3 4 5 6
Mean weighted seismic velocities [m/s]
Vp Vs
Vp
Vs Vp Vs Vp Vs Vp Vs Vp

Vs

V
S30
1.Tineret
Park TINP
180 140 570 220 856 299 --- -- 1666 398 --- --- 263
2.Ecology
Univ. EUNI
300 120 1180 220 1250 241 1610 354 1850 390 2042 401 286
3.Astronomy
Inst. INAS
200 120 914 260 1200 330 1440 350 1900 390 2124 433 283
4.Titan2 Park
TITAP
290 160 800 250 800 250 980 350 1576 381 1850 450 299
5.Motodrom
Park MOTO
650 200 650 200 1320 320 1827 393 1980 410 2050 410 288
6.Student
Park STUP
490 210 490 210 1361 342 1570 370 1607 375 1820 400 295
7.Bazilescu
Park BAZI
500 160 500 160 1484 317 1850 390 2103 408 --- --- 294
8.Romanian
ShootingFed.
FRTIR
670 210 1440 330 1440 350 1718 400 1900 400 --- --- 327
9.Geologic
Museum
GEOM
340 180 1250 310 1511 322 1935 376 1950 380 --- --- 320
10. NIEP site
NIEP
370 250 1710 350 1710 350 1810 320 1739 337 2090 410 326
All sites. 325 169 854 252 1243 320 1530 367 1832 386 2005 417

=
=
=
n
i Si
i
n
i
S
V
h
hi
1
1
V
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The mean weighted seismic velocities for the first 6 (of 7 types) of Quaternary layers were
computed for all the 10 sites, in order to be compared with seismic velocity values obtained from
previous seismic measurements and to be used as input for modelling with the widely applied
program SHAKE 2000. Using SHAKE 2000 we compute spectral acceleration response and
transfer functions for every site in which in situ measurements were performed. The acceleration
response spectra correspond to the shear-wave amplifications due to the models of sedimentary
layers down to: a). 50 m depth; b). 70 m depth; c). 100 m depth.

2. SPECTRAL ACCELERATION COMPUTED FOR 50 M DEPTH MODELS

Different methods of ground response analysis have been developed including one
dimensional, two dimensional, and three dimensional approaches. Various modelling techniques
like the finite element method were implemented for linear and non-linear analysis. Extended
information on these analyses is given in [10] Here we apply an equivalent linear one-dimensional
analysis, as implemented in the computer program SHAKE2000 [3]. The static soil properties
required in the 1D ground response analysis with SHAKE2000 are: maximum shear wave velocity
or maximum shear strength and unit weight. Since the analysis accounts for the non-linear
behaviour of the soils using an iterative procedure, dynamic soil properties play an important role.
The shear modulus reduction curves and damping curves are usually obtained from laboratory test
data (cyclical triaxial soil tests). The variation in geotechnical properties of the individual soil
layers should be assumed constant for each defined soil layer.
In-built shear modulus reduction curves and damping curves for specific types of layers are
used in SHAKE2000 based on published geotechnical tests [3]. As input data the interval seismic
velocities V
S
(in m/s) as well as the natural unit weight (in kN/m
3
) and thickness of each layer (in
m) were used.
The recorded motion of the 27.10.2004 earthquake (Mw= 6) at K2 accelerometer station PRI
in Bucharest was used as seismic input motion. All 3 components (one vertical and two horizontal
components) were available. This accelerometer station is placed in the borehole near the City Hall
site at 52 m depth. The strong motion PRI_EW (east-west component) was used for modelling as it
was the highest signal from the two horizontal components. The strong motion was applied at the
base of all geologic models constructed down to 50 m depth as "inside" motion.
The results of the linear modeling with SHAKE 2000 program for the 10 boreholes are
presented in the Fig. 2 as graphs of spectral acceleration. In Fig. 2 the maximum values of the
spectral accelerations occur around the 3 main the periods: T
1
= 0.13 s; T
2
= 0.2 s; T
3
= 0.55 s. The
highest values occured at the period T
2
= 0.2 s, and they are between 0.22 g and 0.48 g. If we
consider a comparison of the values at surface, they are between 0.22 g at Romanian Shooting Fed.
(northern part of Bucharest) and 0.48 g (Ecologic Univ. in the central part of Bucharest), as it is
shown in [1] and [11].

Fig. 2. Spectral acceleration response
computed with the input strong motion
PRI _EW for the
10 sites in Bucharest, down to 50 m depth

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Fig. 3. PGA variation with depth as result from equivalent-linear modelling in the
10 boreholes in Bucharest, down to 50 m depth
The values of acceleration at surface are presented in the Fig. 3 and they are between 0.055
0.080 g for the first 7 out of the 10 boreholes. For the last 3 sites values as large s 0.08 0.095 g
resulted from modeling (Ecologic Univ.; Titan 2 Park; Bazilescu Park). These high values are
greatly influenced by the thickness of the Quaternary layers 1 and 2 from the surface and also by
the physical and dynamic characteristics of all layers, [1] and [11].

3. SPECTRAL ACCELERATION GRAPHS
COMPUTED FOR 70 M DEPTH MODELS

In the second stage the recorded motion of the 27.10.2004 earthquake (Mw= 6) at
accelerometer station UTCB1 in Bucharest was used as seismic input motion. All 3 components
(one vertical and two horizontal components) were available. This accelerometer station is placed
in the borehole UTCB Tei site at 78 m depth. The strong motion TEI_EW (east-west component)
was used for modelling as it was the highest signal from the two horizontal components. The strong
motion was applied at the base of the geologic models constructed down to 70 m depth as "inside"
motion. Spectral acceleration graphs for the 10 chosen models down to 70 m depth are presented in
Fig. 4, as well as the spectral acceleration of the strong motion applied in the lower part of the
figure.The spectral acceleration peaks values varies from 0.15-0.25 g at Student Park, Geologic
Museum and F.R.Tir to 0.3 g at NIEP-Magurele in the south. Maximum values of 0.4 g are present
at Ecologic Univ. and Titan2 Park, lower than the values obtained in the Fig. 2 for the 50 m
geologic models. The variation of peak acceleration in the depth is presented in the Fig. 5 for the 10
sites and they are between 0.023 g (at 70 m depth) and it can reach 0.045 - 0.08 g at surface, lower
than the maximum values presented in the Fig. 3 for the 50 m geologic models.
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Fig. 4. Spectral acceleration response computed with the input strong motion
TEI _EW for the 10 sites in Bucharest, down to 70 m depth

Fig. 5. PGA variation with depth as result from equivalent-linear modelling in the
10 sites in Bucharest, down to 70 m depth

4. CALIBRATION OF THE 70 M MODEL WITH A REAL SIGNAL
RECORDED AT SURFACE

In Fig. 6 the spectral acceleration of the original strong motion recorded at 78 m (curve 2)
and the resulting spectral acceleration obtained by modelling at surface (curve 1) are presented.
The spectral acceleration of the strong motion recorded at surface in the same site (curve 3) is
compared with the spectral acceleration obtained by modelling (curve 1) and a very good match is
obtained, although the second has lower values especially around the first peak at 0.1 s.
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Fig. 6. UTCB(TEI _EW) Spectral acceleration calibration of the model 0 - 70 m (curve 1)
with the signal recorded at surface (curve 3) in the same place

5. SPECTRAL ACCELERATION COMPUTED FOR 100 M DEPTH MODELS
In the third stage the recorded motion of the 27.10.2004 earthquake (Mw= 6) at
accelerometer station INCERC in Bucharest was used as seismic input motion (BBI_EW, EW
component. This accelerometer station is placed in the borehole at INCERC site at 140 m depth.
The strong motion BBI_EW (east-west component) was used for modelling as it was the deepest
recorded signal in a borehole. The strong motion was applied at the base of the geologic models
constructed down to 100 m depth as "inside" motion. Spectral acceleration graphs for the 7 chosen
models down to 100 m depth are presented in Fig. 7, as well as the spectral acceleration of the
strong motion applied in the lower part of the figure.The spectral acceleration peaks values varies
from 0.060 - 0.100 g at Bazilescu Park and Geologic Museum. Maximum values of 0.110 g are
lower than the values obtained in the Fig. 4 for the 70 m geologic models.

Fig. 7. Spectral acceleration response computed with the input strong motion I NC_EW for the 7 sites in
Bucharest, down to 100 m depth
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Fig. 8. PGA variation with depth as result from equivalent-linear modelling in the 7 sites in
Bucharest, down to 100 m depth

The spectral acceleration graphs in Fig. 9 have 2 peaks: one at 0.15 s and the second at 0.3
s, at the same periods as the spectral acceleration of the original strong motion (red curve). The
absolute value reaches 0.095 g at 0.15 s, which means an amplifications of 3 times of the original
signal through the shallow sedimentary layers.

Fig. 9. Spectral acceleration calibration of the model 0 - 100 m, I NCREST_TEI -140 m, with the signal
recorded at surface in the same place; red curve - strong motion applied to the model; black curve -
spectral acceleration model at surface; blue curve - spectral acceleration recorded at surface
0.1 1 10
0.000
0.025
0.050
0.075
0.100
S
p
e
c
t
r
a
l

a
c
c
e
l
e
r
a
t
i
o
n

[
g
]
Period [s]
INC_140 m-
surface
INC_recorded at
surface
Strong
motion
applied:BBI_EW
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In Fig. 9 the spectral acceleration of the original strong motion recorded at 140 m (red curve)
and the resulting spectral acceleration obtained by modelling at surface (black curve) are presented.
The spectral acceleration of the strong motion recorded at surface in the same site (blue curve) is
compared with the spectral acceleration obtained by modelling (black curve) and a good match is
obtained, although the second has lower values especially around the first peak at 0.15 s.

Conclusions

1. The spectral acceleration graphs in Figs. 2, 4 and 7 demonstrates that the computed
models have the peaks at the same periods as the spectral acceleration of the original strong motion
applied at the base of the model. The absolute values of the peaks show an amplification of about 3
times of the original signal through the shallow sedimentary layers in the geological model.
2. The acceleration graphs in the depth in Figs. 3, 5 and 8 show some variations between the
depth of the models and 20-25 m. After that a sharp increase of the acceleration occurs from this
level to the surface.
3. A strong peak which appeared at higher periods, between 0.5-0.6 s (Fig. 2) and 1 s (Fig. 7)
is considered as an artifact of the computer program. It represents the dominant period for a
package of sedimentary layers with a depth of the model adopted. However due to the fact that the
depth of the model does not coincide with the engineering bedrock in our examples, the real motion
recorded at surface does not show this peak (Figs. 6 and 9). This demonstrates that this peak is an
artifact and should not be considered for further analysis.
4. The fact that the characteristic period around of 1-1.15 s, corresponding to a depth of the
engineering bedrock around 100 m, is not present on the original recorded motion at surface in the
Fig. 9 shows that this bedrock is not present here and it is probably much deeper. Other geological
observations placed the bedrock at 500-1000 m depth in the Bucharest area, coinciding with the
upper interface of the Cretaceous limestones [12].

Acknoledgements
This work was supported by CNCSIS - UEFISCDI, project number IDEI ID_78/2008,
conducted by National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest, Romania: Seismic local site effect
studies by interdisciplinary modeling employing equivalent- linear and non linear methods.

REFERENCES:
1. NATO Science for Peace project 981882 - Site-effect Analyses for the Earthquake-endangered metropolis
Bucharest, Romania, Final report 2009, Ed. Univ. "Alexandru Ioan Cuza", Iasi, 2009.
2. Romanian Code for the seismic design for buildings - P100-1, 2006.
3. Ordnez G.A., SHAKE2000: A computer program for the 1-D analysis of geotechnical earthquake
engineering problem, 2003.
4. Bala A., Ritter J.R.R., Hannich D., Balan S.F., Arion C., Local site effects based on in situ measurements
in Bucharest City, Romania, Proceedings of the International symposium on Seismic Risk Reduction,
ISSRR-2007, Bucharest, pp. 367-374, 2007.
5. Bala, A., Balan, S.F., Ritter, J.R.R., Rohn, J., Huber G., Hannich, D., Site-effect analyses for the
earthquake-endangered metropolis Bucharest, Romania, 127 p, Ed. Univ. "Alexandru Ioan Cuza", Iasi,
2010.
6. Ritter J.R.R., Balan, S., Bonjer, K.-P., Diehl, T., Forbriger, T., Marmureanu, G., Wenzel F. and Wirth,
W., Broadband urban seismology in the Bucharest metropolitan area, Seism. Res. Lett., 76, pp 573-579,
2005.
7. EUROCODE-8 - prEN1998-1-3 - Design provisions for earthquake resistance of structures, European
Committee for Standardisation, 2001.
8. Ciugudean-Toma, V., Stefanescu, I., Engineering geology of the Bucharest city area, Romania, IAEG -
2006, Engineering Geology for Tomorrows Cities, paper no. 235, 2006.
9. Bala A., Zihan I., Ciugudean V., Raileanu V., Grecu B., Physical and dynamic properties of the
Quaternary sedimentary layers in and around Bucharest City, Proceedings of the International symposium
on Seismic Risk Reduction, ISSRR-2007, Bucharest, pp 359-366, 2007.
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10. Kramer, S.L., Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey,
1996.
11. Bala, A., S.F. Balan, J.R.R. Ritter, D. Hannich, Modeling of seismic site amplification based on in situ
borehole measurements in Bucharest, Romania, http://www.ecgs.lu/jlg95-abstracts/, 2009.
12. Bl Andrei, Geologic and geophysical models with application in assessment of the local site effects in
Bucarest, Romania, Ed. GRANADA, 176 p, in Romanian, ISBN 978-973-8905-88-7, 2010.


MAGMA STIMULATION AND RISING EARTHQUAKES:
PRECURSORS OF VOLCANIC WINTERS ICE AGE THAT WE MAY AVERT
OTHER NECESSARY PREPARATIONS

Goulopoulos Nikolaos
Afforestation Alliance (GREECE)
irinipeace1@yahoo.gr


Magma stimulation and rising earthquakes: precursors of volcanic winters -
ice age that we may AVERT - Other necessary preparations

Several studies since the '70ies show a correlation between weak solar cycles and raised
magma and volcanic activity. Present data show not only a weak solar cycle and a rise in
earthquakes - volcanic eruptions cloudiness - storms, but that most probably next decades will be
worse. The proposed explanation is that planet positions disperse electricity from the galactic
centre to the planets from its course to the sun, so Earth's magma is charged and is rising its
disturbance. Volcanic winters occuring during solar minima, is a FREQUENT but not discussed
enough phenomenon. Climate fluctuation has been remarked by Meton, and Archimedes
constructed a computer such as that of Antikythera, to foresee the planets' orbits and influence on
our climate: when they pass through the flow of galactic electricity from the center of the Milky-
way to the Sun, they divert magma stimulating galactic plasma to Earth and other planets, less to
the Sun, thus weak solar cycles. That's why during weak solar cycles, as now, solar flare electricity
finds Earth stimulated and causes stronger quakes. Last time similar to today's solar low activity,
was the beginning of the 19
th
century, when the 1815-20 Tambora volcanic winter occured...
First we propose worldwide lightning-rod NETS around faults (for faults in sea, nets on
buoys) and active volcanoes, to disperse magma stimulation by galactic electricity and AVERT
devastating earthquakes and cooling volcanic eruptions/clouding.
Second proposal: a test with a fire-resistant cap or grid hold by zeppelins, some hundred
meters above extra active volcanoes, in order to prevent volcanic ash to reach troposphere, and thus
spread all over Earth with predictable catastrophic consequences, similar to those volcanic winters
that provoked the collapse of Mayans, Aztecs and Incas with cannibalism.
Third, we propose an extented spread of soot over icecaps and other glaciers, in order to
decrease albedo and melt them, as already, at least the 90% of Earth's ice in Antarctica raises.
Last series of actions needed is decentralization of all present Babylons, to autarky villages
and afforestation of ALL open places, even plains, to have food and wood in case of the worst
scenarios.
If research focus on galactic electricity, we may stop the dangerous magnetic poles shift or
its implications!
Keywords: volcanic winter, cosmic rays, lightning-rods, Antarctica, global cooling, ice age,
Mayans, Aztecs, Incas, cannibalism, crater cap, autarky, afforestation.

1. SOLAR CYCLE CORRELATION WITH MAGMA AND
VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

"ow, thanks to the involvement of scientists from other fields of science including biology
and astrophysics in preparations for the report, it has become apparent that the currently observed
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events are of galactic scale and are directly related to THE POSITION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM
IN OUR GALAXY, the Milky Way. It is this position that has a major impact on the formation of
geological megacycles during which planet-scale biodiversity change is observed"[1]. Professor E.
Khalilov, who forecasted TWO days ahead and alerted many governments about the devastating
2011 Japan megaquake. Also:
A 2011 Oak Ridge National Laboratory report warned of a 33 percent likelihood that a
[DIVERTIBLE] solar flare could lead to long-term power loss over a nuclear reactor's life. With
440 nuclear power plants in 30 countries, and 250 research reactors, there are nearly 700 potential
Fukushimas waiting to be unleashed [2]: Another reason for PROVIDENCE!
Several studies since the '70ies show a correlation between weak solar cycles and raised
magma and volcanic activity [3, 4], [Fig. 1a].
Present data show not only a weak solar cycle and a rise in earthquakes - volcanic eruptions
cloudiness storms - floods, but that most probably next decades will be worse, and there is an
anxiety of a possible new Little (?) ice-age [5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12], [Fig. 1, 2, 3, 4].


Fig. 1. Last big earthquakes and raising volcanic activity


Fig. 1a: Sunspots and volcanic activity correlation.
From: [4]
Fig. 2: Earthquake-volcanic activity rise.
Source USGS Earthquake Hazard Program,
Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program.
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Fig. 3. Next solar cycles forecast by H. Abdusamatov [7]

Fig. 4: Great natural disasters forecast by Geochange-report.org
We propose as reason the present planet positions that disperse electricity from the galactic
center of the Milky-way to the Sun, they divert magma stimulating galactic plasma to Earth and
other planets, less to the Sun, thus weak solar cycles. That's why during weak solar cycles, as now,
solar flare electricity finds Earth stimulated and its charged magma causes stronger quakes,
volcanic eruptions-clouding. [13, 14, 15, 16] [Fig. 5, 6, 7].
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Figure 5: Comparison between the reconstructed cosmic ray flux and the quantitative temperature
reconstruction over the Phanerozoic: The top panel describes the reconstructed Cosmic Ray Flux
variations over the past 500 Million years using the exposure ages I ron Meteorites. The bottom panel
depicts in black, the reconstructed tropical ocean temperature variations using isotope data from fossils.
The red line is the fit to the temperature using the cosmic ray flux variations. The top blue bars indicate
ice ages. The notable fit implies that most of the temperature variations can be explained using the cosmic
ray flux, and not a lot is left to be explained by other climate factors, including CO2. This implies that
cosmic rays are the dominant (tropical) climate driver over the many million year time scale. From: [19].



Fig. 6. Current planet positions, while the emmiting galactic centre is to the right of the picture
(writer's depiction).

As Heraclitus had noted that extraterrestrial 'thunderbolt steers the universe' ('
'), ancient greek Astronomer Meton had also attested that whenever sun had
many sunspots, more downpours occured on Earth (' , '): we now know
that a more active sun warms the Earth, and warmer oceans cause more long rains, instead of the
storms alternating with droughts that we have during cooler periods.
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Fig. 7. The galactic cloud where our solar system travels

2. VOLCANIC INCIDENTS
Volcanic winters is a FREQUENT [Fig. 8, 9] but not discussed enough phenomenon. Cold
climate fluctuations probably had been remarked by Archimedes, who constructed a computer [17]
such as that of Antikythera, to foresee the planets' orbits and influence on our climate. [Fig. 10, 11].


Fig. 8. Continuous volcanic winters, temperature and civilization falls.
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Fig. 9. Some of the volcanic eruptions that kept Little I ce Age 600 years long.



Fig. 10. Archimedes' murder


Fig. 11. Antikythera computer reconstruction


The inhabitants of ancient Thera 3.650 years ago, had already double or triple exits to their
houses, in case of a blockage during quakes [Fig. 12]. They showed similar PROVIDENCE and
were saved, leaving the island after the precursory big quakes, and escaping the huge volcanic
eruption, that caused a worldwide devastating 5year volcanic winter [18]. While other peoples in
the Middle East collapsed, Greek Thereans came back to their island and continued their
magnificent contribution to the famous peaceable Aegean civilization!
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Fig. 12. Double exits in ancient Thera houses.

Fig. 13. Pompeiian arena addiction - improvidence...

Fig. 14. Deforestator Mayans-Aztecs-I ncas
collapsed

On the contrary, the arena addicted Pompeians 1700 years later, scorned fatalistically both
the precursory quakes and the raising volcanic activity, and were almost all burned... [Fig. 13] (The
same thing happened during the 1902 Pelee eruption in Martinique...).
Last similar to the present solar condition time was the 1815-20 Tambora volcanic winter...
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What must we expect now if a sudden volcanic winter occurs, when 7 billion people on
Earth are both unsuspected and unprepared, most of them trapped in cement babylons???...
Cannibalism and epidemics will be worse than the Little Ice Age (1300-1900) plagues, due to the
aforementioned volcanic winters... There is also a possibility that Earth enters a new big Ice Age...

3. PROPOSALS
First we propose Worldwide Lightning-rod Nets around faults (for faults in sea, nets on
buoys) and active volcanoes, to disperse magma stimulation by galactic electricity and AVERT
devastating earthquakes and cooling volcanic eruptions/clouding.



Fig. 15. Magma de-stimulating lightning-rod NETS around active faults/volcanoes

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Second we propose a test with a fire-resistant cap or grid hold by zeppelins [Fig. 13], some
hundred meters above extra active volcanoes, in order to prevent volcanic ash to reach troposphere,
and thus spread all over Earth with predictable catastrophic consequences.


Fig. 16: Buoys can held
lightning-rods across active
sea faults
Fig. 17: Fire-resistant crater cap or grid instead of
volcano NON-nuclear bombing


Fig. 18. Soot melts ice


Third we propose an extented spread of soot over icecaps and other glaciers, in order to
decrease albedo and melt them.
Last series of actions needed is decentralization of all present Babylons, to autarky villages
and afforestation of ALL open places, even plains, to have food and wood in case of the worst
scenarios.

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REFERENCES:
1. http://arknow.net/site/202/f/2737#.T9sNMJjF-So
2. http://enenews.com/solar-storms-threaten-nuke-plants-power-outages-could-last-years-decades-risk-
significantly-outweighs-major-earthquakes.
3. Abdurakhmanov A.I., Firstov L.P., Shirokov V.A. Possible connection of volcanic eruptions with 11-year
cyclicality of solar activity. In the book Bulletin of volcanic stations. Moscow, Science, 1976, No.52,
p.3-10.
4. Stetik Jaroslav. Possible correlation between solar and volcanic activity in a long-term scale Lower
solar activity, occurrence of huge volcanic events and lower surface air temperature could be expected in
the next decades. In: Solar variability as an input to the Earth's environment. International Solar Cycle
Studies (ISCS) Symposium, 23-28 June 2003, http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003ESASP.535..393S.
5. www.Geochange-report.org
6. Are Mega Earthquakes on the Rise?
http://www.livescience.com/13632-mega-earthquakes-increasing-japan-indonesia.html
7. http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html
8. Lockwood et al, The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the Sun into Maunder
Minimum [=Little Ice Age VOLCANIC COOLING] conditions
http://www.agu.org/pubs/current/si/links/2011GL049811.pdf
9. Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks
Gifford H. Miller et al, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L02708, 2012
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2011GL050168.shtml
10. Britain National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies - 2012 edition. Volcanic hazards Risk
[=VOLCANIC WINTER].
https://update.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/sites/default/files/resources/CO_NationalRiskRegister_2012_acc.pdf.
11. Sunday Times: Europe May be Facing Return Of 'Little Ice Age': "State Meteorological (Met) Office
publishes in Nature its prediction that Europe could be facing a return of the little ice age that gripped
Britain 300 years ago, causing decades of bitter winters.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article794416.ece.
12. World Economic Forum fears VOLCANIC WINTER in 2012:
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalRisks_Report_2012.pdf.
13. Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber
Toshikazu Ebisuzaki, Hiroko Miyahara, Ryuho Kataoka, Tatsuhiko Sato, Yasuhiro Ishimine
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X10001966
14. GALAXY sends the DIVERTIBLE thunderbolts (that also stimulate magma): The observed electric
fields in thunderclouds are generally too weak to initiate the atmospheres electrical breakdown. But
COSMIC RAYS can play a surprising role in the drama of LIGHTNING: A.V. Gurevich and
K.P. Zybin, Runaway Breakdown and the Mysteries of Lightning.
http://www.phy.olemiss.edu/~jgladden/phys510/spring06/Gurevich.pdf.
15. [DIVERTIBLE] Solar flares trigger earthquakes Jain, R., Physical Research Laboratory. EACH of the
682 >4.0 EARTHQUAKES under study was preceded by a SOLAR FLARE of B to X class by 10-100
hrs. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUSMIN33A..03J
16. 2011 March 9th ended with a powerful SOLAR FLARE. In addition, on March 10, 2011 around 0630
UT, a CORONAL MASS EJECTION did strike a glaceing blow to Earth's magnetic field.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News031011-xclass.html
17. Cicero: De re publica 1, XIV
http://oll.libertyfund.org/?option=com_staticxt&staticfile=show.php%3Ftitle=546&chapter=83295&lay
out=html&Itemid=27
18. Rutgers Volcanic explosion larger than Krakatoa triggers collapse of Bronze age William Ryan of
the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
http://geologymuseum.rutgers.edu/downloads/newsletter_-_2005_spring.pdf
19. Prof. Nir Shaviv http://www.sciencebits.com/CosmicRaysClimate




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TRACES OF AN ANCIENT CIVILIZATION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
CASPIAN SEA

T.Sh. Khalilova
1
, E.N. Khalilov
2
1
Intergeo-Tethys International Scientific and Technical Complex
2
International Committee GEOCHANGE
e-mail: khalilov@geo-change.org
Development of human society in the course of the whole history of mankind significantly
depended on a lot of natural factors such as climatic conditions, soil fertility, and availability of
water sources, the vegetable world and the animal world. However perhaps only natural calamities
distinguished by its unpredictability and scope exerted fatal impact on development of
civilizations. There are many examples in the history of mankind that evidence destruction and
dark oblivion for many centuries and sometimes millenniums of the whole civilizations as a result
of natural calamities. It is enough to remember Pompeii, the ancient city that was destructed as a
result of eruption of Vesuvius volcano during two days, i.e. August 24-25, 79 A.D. and had
remained under thick layer of volcanic ashes for many centuries. And this city was found and
revealed for future civilizations in 1594.
Meanwhile the legendary Atlantis firstly mentioned by Plato, the great philosopher doesnt
leave indifferent the minds of many scientists. How many other cities like Atlantis are buried
under water? Ruins of ancient and legendary Sabail castle look out of sea water near Baku City and
these ruins are sometimes called a Baku Atlantis. This site is known to Baku citizens as Sabail,
Bayil stones, Caravanserai or Bayil Gesri. Some scientists think that Sabail was a most
impregnable fortress of the Southern Caucasus region that couldnt be taken by storm even by the
army of Genghis Khan. When describing the fortress the scientists mention that the fortress has the
shape of extremely oblong rectangular with uneven lines of lateral walls. Investigations conducted
using the space photograph of high resolution allowed the authors to acquire accurate outlines of
Sabail fortress. It is supposed that this shape repeated outlines of the rock that serves as
foundation for almost the whole fortress. The masonry walls of about 1.5 m in thickness connect 15
towers. Maybe the fortress submerged under sea waters after the most powerful earthquake
occurred in 1306.
Investigations show that the level of water in the Caspian Sea was exposed to periodical
fluctuations and resulted in significant change of coastline of the Caspian Sea and area of water
surface of the Sea /2/.
However is Sabail fortress the only ancient structure swallowed by the deep of waters of the
wild Caspian Sea?
Investigation of shelf of Absheron peninsula using space photographs allowed scientists to
find an extraordinary structure on the bottom of sea, near the eastern boundaries of Absheron
peninsula i.e. Shikhov bay-bar and the shape of this structure reminded the ruins of an ancient
fortress (Fig. 1). Authors temporarily titled this structure as Zyrinskaya fortress.
Closer viewing of the picture allows us to see clearly the perimeter and the interior design of
the structure (Fig. 2). Special filters providing for viewing of the space photograph in various
spectral ranges have been used in order to improve visual capacity of the obtained picture (Fig. 3).
As you see from the space photograph the walls of the ancient structure are clearly showing up.
The structure has oblong shape and stretches in the North-eastern direction. Ruins of several walls
that have lateral and cross cut orientation in regard to exterior walls are clearly distinguished inside
the structure. There is a semicircular structure near the southern wall, in the central part of the
conditional fortress. However it can have square shape but looks circular as a result of silt or sand
drift.
Detailed investigations and direct archeological digs will provide for more accurate
description of the shape of interior structures of the fortress. Authors managed to some extent to
get common understanding of possible spatial design of a number of components of the ancient
fortress using methods of three-dimensional graphics. Outcomes of three-dimensional graphical
treatment of the space photograph are described in Fig. 4.
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Fig. 1. Space photograph of the eastern part of Absheron peninsula:
the underwater detection area of the ancient structure is marked with red circle


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Fig. 2. Photograph of the detection area of the ancient structure


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Fig. 3. Review of the space photograph in various spectral ranges located on the bottom of
the Caspian Sea



Fig. 4. Outcomes of treatment of the space photograph using methods of three- dimensional graphics

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Fig. 5. The schemewith sizes Zyrinskaya fortress

Implementation of special software allowed for identification of precise parameters of
Zyrinskaya fortress. You can see on the Fig. 5 that the length of fortress equals to 316 meters, and
the width of fortress equals to 140 meters. Perimeter of exterior walls of the fortress amounts to
823 meters.
The area of interior part of the fortress equals to 38960 square meters. Diameter of
semicircular interior structures equals to 21-25 meters. Thickness of external walls is equal 2-2,5
meters. It is clear that the eastern wall of the fortress is not even, and it represents an uneven oval
that is slightly inclined in the eastern direction. The northern wall of the fortress has also an oval
shape, and the southern wall is even. The oval shape of the walls could be imposed by local relief.
Thus the first step in the area of revelation of new traces of the Caspian Atlantis has already been
implemented. Investigations in the area of decoding of the space photograph are continued.
Meanwhile the historical facts evidence in favor of existence of remnants of ancient settlement on
the bottom of the Caspian Sea. For instance Sara Ashurbeyli writes in the work /3/ that All the
exiting legends about flooding of a whole city by waters of the Caspian Sea were probably derived
from an actual fact of lowering of level of continent and submergence of a settlement or a city
under the sea waters as a result of earthquake. In the work /4/ academician Lens writes that he
heard from local inhabitants in 1830 that long time ago the sea shore located at a distance of
13.258 miles far from Beyuk and Dash Zira islands, and Pirallahi and Chilov islands were parts of
the continent; and once the sea suddenly flooded significant part of the coastline, and the coastline
acquired its present shape. S.Ashurbeyli thinks that /3/ the tracks of barrow trucks on rocks of
Beyuk Zira island that submerge under sea waters can serve as evidence to flooding of the area
between Baku and Beyuk Zira island many centuries ago. Judging from direction of the tracks this
route led along island towards Shykh village and Shykh bay-bar i.e. the last point of the southern
coast of Baku bay.

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Fig. 6. Changes in level of the Caspian Sea during the last 400 thousand years /2/
Indeed the geological data confirm availability in the historical past of the Caspian Sea of
both global transgressions and regressions in terms of scale of geological time and space (Fig. 6),
and relatively small cycles of rising and consequent lowering of level of the Caspian Sea in terms
of scale (Fig. 7).


Fig. 7. Changes in level of the Caspian Sea during the last 170 years
(I vanova T.P., Trifonov V.G., 2002)

Meanwhile we have not found any notes in historical sources that would confirm
availability of an ancient fortress in the detection area of underwater ruins.
The next successive step of relevant investigations shall consist of archeological digs.

REFERENCES:
1. Vasiliy Dyatlov. The Caspian Atlantis. www.itogi.ru. Weekly magazine, issue N36(326), September
02, 2007.
2. Magomedov M.G. et al. The Caspian Atlantis. Scientific thought of Caucasus. Issue N4, 1997, p.51-60.
3. Sara Ashurbeyli. History of Baku City. Azerneshr Publishing House, 1992, p.34-36.
4. Lenz .Ueber die veranderungen der h welche die oberflache des Kaspischen Meeres biz zum April
des Jahres 1830 erlitten hat. (Memoires de I'academie des sciences de St.Petersb.6 serie.tome II)
St.Petersb.1883, s. 78-82.
5. Kasymov A.G. The Caspian Sea. Leningrad, 1987.
6. Muravyov S.N. Five ancient evidences in favor of Ptolemaic transgression of the Caspian Sea (IV-II
centuries B.C.). The ancient states on the territory of present USSR. Moscow, 1986, p.238-247.
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ACTIVE BRACE CONTROL OF FRAME STRUCTURES UNDER
EARTHQUAKE EXCITATION

Sinan Melih Nigdeli
Istanbul University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey,
melihnig@istanbul.edu.tr
Introduction
Structural vibrations resulting from earthquakes cause serious damages on civil buildings.
Also, valuable devices and non-structural elements can be damaged during big unstable vibration.
Thus, structural control concept may be implemented to important structures in order to prevent
structural and non-structural damages. There are various types of structural control, such as active,
passive, hybrid and semi-active. Passive control devices are more economical according to active
control. Passive control helps to damping of vibration with mechanical materials. Especially,
passive tuned mass dampers was placed to several important structures under wind excitation and
several studies showed that optimum passive tuned mass damper are effective on reducing
earthquake indicated structural vibration [1-3].
Active control devices apply time varying forces to structures in order to protect them from
unstable excitations like earthquakes. But, active control systems may be expensive and may need
big control forces and big power supplies. Semi-active systems, which may be accepted as active
system with lower efficacy, consume less power than active ones. Hybrid systems, which are the
combination of active and passive systems, may be more effective on force and power reduction. In
that case, when tuning active control devices, control force value must be considered in order to
keep it at a minimum level. The time delay is also a problem for active control systems. In the
tuning process, a realistic time delay must be considered. Otherwise, the system may be unstable
under random vibrations and this situation will be the failure of the protection system. In this paper,
an active brace controlled single storey frame structure was investigated under earthquake loadings.
At the end of the analysis, time and frequency domain results were compared for the uncontrolled
and the controlled structure. Several studies about active control of structure were mentioned here.
Wong and Hart investigated the controlled response of inelastic structures and presented an active
tendon controlled frame structure as a sample [4]. Lu and Skelton proposed a method for integrated
design of passive and active elements including active braces [5]. Arfiadi and Hadi controlled
three-dimensional buildings with passive and active systems such as active tunes mass dampers,
passive tunes mass dampers and active braces by using genetic algorithm as a function optimizer
[6]. In order to demonstrate the practical applicability of active control, experimental tests using a
full scale three storey building equipped with active braces were conducted on the shake table at
the National Center of Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE), Taiwan [7]. Lu and Zhao
investigated active brace controlled structures with controllers extended by introducing the
saturated control method [8]. Gluck and Ribakov developed an active controlled viscous damping
device with amplifying braces [9]. Arfiadi and Hadi used a continuous bounded controller for
active brace controlled structures and proved their study by applying different earthquake
excitations with various intensities [10]. Han and Tsopelas developed a passive/active brace system
(PAB) which is the combination of a piezoelectric stack actuator and a viscoelastic damper [11].
Pnevmatikos and Gantes investigated structures with diagonal braces combined with active
variable stiffness devices that have an ability to activate or deactivate the braces [12]. Nigdeli and
Bodurolu investigated active tendon controlled structures with PID controller in order to prevent
earthquake indicated big vibrations [13]. Torsionally irregular single storey structures with active
tendon control were investigated by Nigdeli and Bodurolu under earthquake excitations [14]. In
this study, a single storey frame structure equipped with a diagonal active brace was analyzed
under earthquake excitations. The Proportional Integration Derivative (PID) type controller was
used for obtaining the control signal. The time delay effect was also considered in order to obtain
realistic results. For more economical and practical results, the amount of the control force was
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held at a minimum level. The controlled and the uncontrolled structure results were compared
including the rotations and moments at the conjunction of the beam and the columns.

Frame structure model and equations of motion

Model of the frame structure with active brace control is shown in Fig. 1. In Fig. 1, m
c
, L
c

and EI
c
represent the unit mass per length, the length and the rigidity of the columns, respectively.
Also, m
b
, L
b
and EI
b
represent the unit mass per length (including storey mass), the length and the
rigidity of the beam, respectively. The frame structure has three degrees of freedom. These
freedoms are the lateral displacement of structure respect to the ground (x) and the rotations at the
beam column conjunctions (
1
and
2
). The equations of motion of an uncontrolled single-span
single storey linear frame structure subjected to earthquake loading can be written as

) t ( x
0
0
m
) t ( Kx ) t ( x C ) t ( x M
t
g

= + +

(1)

where M, C, K are mass, damping and stiffness matrices, respectively. Total mass of the building
and ground motion acceleration are shown as
) t ( x
g

and t
m
, respectively.
) t ( x
is the vector of the
freedoms.
) t ( x

and
) t ( x

are the derivatives of


) t ( x
. The M, K, C matrices and x(t) vector for three
degrees of freedom system are given in Eqs. (2), (3), (4) and (5), respectively.

(
(
(
(
(
(

+
+
=
) L m L m (
105
1
L m
420
3
L m
210
11
L m
420
3
) L m L m (
105
1
L m
210
11
L m
210
11
L m
210
11
L m L m
210
156
M
3
b b
3
c c
3
b b
2
c c
3
b b
3
b b
3
c c
2
c c
2
c c
2
c c b b c c

(2)

(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(

+
+ =
b
b
c
c
2
b
b
2
c
c
2
b
b
b
b
c
c
2
c
c
2
c
c
2
c
c
3
c
c
L
EI 4
L
EI 4
L
EI 2
L
EI 6
L
EI 2
L
EI 4
L
EI 4
L
EI 6
L
EI 6
L
EI 6
L
EI 24
K

(3)

The damping matrix was generated by using the Rayleigh damping proportional to the mass and
stiffness matrix. In Eq. (3), and are the coefficients of the Rayleigh damping [15, 16, 17].

K M C | + o =
(4)

Fig. 1. The Frame Structure with Active Brace Control
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104

x(t) = [x
1

2
]
T
(5)
The equations of motion of an active brace controlled single-span single storey linear frame
structure subjected to earthquake loading can be written as seen in Eq. (6). In this equation, u and
0
o
are the control signal and the angle of active brace with respect to ground, respectively.
) Cos (
0
0
u
) t ( x
0
0
m
) t ( Kx ) t ( x C ) t ( x M
0
t
o

= + +
g


(6)

The control signal is the force applied from active braces and the multiplication of the
control signal with the cosine of the angle between ground and the brace is the control force. In
order obtain the control signal, PID type controller was used. The equation of the PID controller
can be seen in Eq. (7). In this equation, K
p
(Proportional gain), T
i
(Integral time) and T
d
(Derivation
time) are controller coefficients. By using the control algorithm, the error signal (e(t)) can be
transformed into control signal. The error signal is taken as the velocity of the lateral motion. The
controller coefficients were tuned by using a trial method by considering the maximum control
force value.
|
|
.
|
+ +

\
|
=
}
dt
) t ( de
T dt ) t ( e
T
1
) t ( e K ) t ( u
d
i
p

(7)


In order to obtain realistic and trusted results, a 20 ms time delay of the control system was
assumed. The block diagrams of the controlled and uncontrolled structure were developed by using
Matlab Simulink. Runge-Kutta method with 1e-3 step size was used for the numerical analysis.
Table 1.
Properties of the structure and the PID controller
Symbol DEFINITIONS Numerical Value
m
t
Total mass of the structure 5250 kg
m
c
Mass of the columns per length 250 kg/m
m
b
Mass of the beam per length(including storey mass) 750 kg/m
L
c
Length of the columns 3 m
L
b
Length of the beam 5 m
EI
c
Rigidity of the columns 15000000 Nm
2

EI
b
Rigidity of the beam 15000000 Nm
2

0
Angle of the active brace respect to the ground

31
T Period of the structure 0.15 s
Coefficient of the Rayleigh damping 3.1961
Coefficient of the Rayleigh damping 5.5795x10
-4

K
p
Proportional gain -47200 Ns/m
T
i
Integral time 15 s
T
d
Derivative time 0.01 s

Numerical example
The frame structure was analyzed under various earthquake excitations. The damping of the
structure was assumed as 5% for the first two modes. The properties of the structure and the PID
controller can be seen in Table 1. In Table 2, the maximum responses such as the lateral
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105

displacement (x), the rotations at the joints (
1
,
2
), the total acceleration (
g
x x

+
), the shear force at
the columns (V) ,the moments at the joints (M
1
, M
2
) and the control force (F
c
) can be seen under
different earthquake excitation for the uncontrolled and the active brace controlled cases. The
earthquake records were downloaded by NGA database of Pacific Earthquake Engineering
Research Center (PEER) [18].
Table 2.
Maximum responses of the frame structure
Earthquake records

x (cm) 1,2 (rad) g
x x

+
(g)
V (kN) M1,M2 (Nm) Fc (kN)
Duzce (1999) BOL090
Uncontrolled 0.8427 0.0025 1.3623 61.7522 323.4508 -
Controlled 0.7190 0.0022 1.1887 52.6511 229.1013 9.6200
El Centro (1940)
ELC180
Uncontrolled 0.4372 0.0013 0.7555 32.0814 270.8723 -
Controlled 0.3227 0.0010 0.6333 23.6787 160.0795 5.4415
Erzincan (1992)
ERZ-NS
Uncontrolled 0.4906 0.0015 0.7447 35.9052 113.3049 -
Controlled 0.4488 0.0013 0.7124 32.8373 69.6165 3.0420
Landers (1992)
LCN000
Uncontrolled 1.1734 0.0035 2.0915 86.1456 785.5621 -
Controlled 0.6227 0.0019 1.3842 45.7781 549.1632 13.6792
Loma Prieta (1989)
LGP000
Uncontrolled 1.1221 0.0034 1.9046 82.3054 480.2536 -
Controlled 0.6108 0.0018 1.1334 44.7806 295.4865 10.3414
Kobe (1995)
KJM000
Uncontrolled 1.3290 0.0040 2.2160 97.4460 510.1252 -
Controlled 0.8105 0.0024 1.4427 59.3987 350.3847 12.5385
Northridge (1994)
SYL360
Uncontrolled 0.9209 0.0028 1.5310 67.5206 346.9131 -
Controlled 0.7304 0.0022 1.3307 53.5471 275.2702 10.2412

In Fig. 2, the time history of the lateral displacement of the structure under Loma Prieta
earthquake is given with the comparison of the controlled and the uncontrolled cases. Under Loma
Prieta excitation, the maximum displacement is reduced from 1.1221 cm to 0.6108 cm (45.6%
reduction).

Fig. 2. The lateral displacement of the frame structure under Loma Prieta earthquake
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106

In Fig. 3, the time history of the rotations at the joints under Loma Prieta earthquake is
seen. The maximum rotation is reduced from 0.0034 rad to 0.0018 rad (47% reduction).

Fig. 3. The rotations at the joints under Loma Prieta earthquake
The shear force of the columns can be seen in Fig. 4 under Loma Prieta loading. The
maximum shear force is reduced from 82.3054 kN to 44.7806 kN (45.6% reduction). In Fig. 5, the
time history of the moments at the joints can be seen under Loma Prieta earthquake. The maximum
moments are reduced from 480.2536 Nm to 295.4865 Nm (38.5 % reduction).


Fig. 4. The shear force under Loma Prieta earthquake

0 5 10 15 20 25
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
x 10
-3
time (s)
u
1
,
u
2

(
r
a
d
)

Structure
Controlled Structure
0 5 10 15 20 25
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
x 10
4
time (s)
V

(
N
)

Structure
Controlled Structure
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107


Fig. 5. The moments at the joints under Loma Prieta earthquake

The transfer functions of the frame structure can be seen in Fig. 6 for the lateral motion
(TF
x
) and the rotations at the joints (TF

), respectively. These transfer functions represent the ratio


between Laplace Transforms of the accelerations of the frame structure and the ground excitation.
The values of the first peaks representing the resonance state of the structure are reduced with the
help of the active control.


Fig. 6. The transfer functions of the frame structure for the uncontrolled and the controlled cases
0 5 10 15 20 25
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
time (s)
M
1
,
M
2

(
N
m
)

Structure
Controlled Structure
10
0
10
1
10
2
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
frequency (Hz)
T
F
x

(
d
B
)


Structure
Controlled Structure
10
0
10
1
10
2
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
frequency (Hz)
T
F
u

(
d
B
)


Structure
Controlled Structure
Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
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108

Conclusion
The PID controlled active braces for the frame structures are effective on reducing earthquake
indicating structural vibrations. The analysis results under different earthquakes prove that the
control system is secure and effective for various conditions even a 20 ms time delay is considered.
Also, frequency domain analyses show that the structure can be trustable for different random
excitations. With the reduction of the lateral displacements, second order effects are reduced. Also,
the active control concept is successful on reducing total acceleration of the frame structure. For the
feasibility of the method, the control force must be in an applicable range. The results of maximum
control force are well enough to maintain. The maximum control force is 13.6792 kN for Lander
earthquake excitation. The actuator must apply this force with 100% efficiency in order to
minimize time delay value.
Damages at frame structures may be prevented with active braces because of the reduction
at the shear force and moments under different earthquakes. Also, the reaching of moments to
plasticity capacity may be prevented.



REFERENCES:
1. Sadek F., Mohraz B., Taylor A.W., Chung R.M. A method of estimating the parameters of tuned mass
dampers for seismic applications. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 1997; 26:617635.
2. Hadi M.N.S, Arfiadi Y. Optimum design of absorber for MDOF structures. Journal of Structural
Engineering (ASCE) 1998; 124:12721280.
3. Bekda G., Nigdeli S.M. Estimating Optimum Parameters of Tuned Mass Dampers Using Harmony
Search. Engineering Structures 2011; 33: 2716-2723.
4. Wong K.K.F, Hart G.C. Active Control of Inelastic Structural Response During Earthquakes. The
Structural Design of Tall Buildings 1997; 6:125-149.
5. Lu J., Skelton RE. Optimal Hybrid Control for Structures. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure
Engineering 1998; 13:405-414.
6. Arfiadi Y., Hadi M.N.S. Passive and Active Control of Three-Dimensional Buildings. Earthquake
Engineering and Structural Dynamics 2000; 29:377-396.
7. Wu J.-C. Modeling of an Actively Braced Full-Scale Building Considering Control-Structure
Interaction. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 2000; 29:1325-1342.
8. Lu X., Zhao B. Discrete-Time Variable Structure Control of Seismically Excited Building Structures.
Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 2001; 30:853-863.
9. Gluck J., Ribakov Y. Active Viscous Damping System with Amplifying Braces for Control of MDOF
Structures. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 2002; 31:1735-1751.
10. Arfiadi Y., Hadi M.N.S. Continuous Bounded Controllers for Active Control of Structures. Computer
and Structures 2006; 84:798-807.
11. Han S.-J., Tsopelas P. Active/Passive Seismic Control of Structures. Journal of Earthquake Engineering
2006; 10:509-526.
12. Pnevmatikos N.G., Gantes C.J. Design and Control Algorithm for Structures Equipped with Active
Variable Stiffness Devices. Structural Control and Health Monitoring 2010; 17:591-613.
13. Nigdeli S.M, Bodurolu M.H. Active Tendons for Seismic Control of Buildings. World Academy of
Science, ICMSE, Paris July 2010; 68:1258-1264.
14. Nigdeli S.M, Bodurolu M.H. Active Tendon Control of Structures with Torsionally Irregularity.
Seventh National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Istanbul 30 May-3 June 2011.
15. Clough R.W, Penzien J. Dynamics of Structures. New York: Mc. Graw-Hill Book Company; 1993.
16. Hart G.C., Wong K. Structural Dynamics for Structural Engineering. New York: John Wiley and Sons
Inc.; 1999.
17. Chopra A.K. Dynamics of Structures: Theory and Applications to Earthquake Engineering. 2nd Edition.
New Jersey: Prentice Hall; 2001.
18. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. NGA database: http://peer.berkeley.edu/nga.



Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
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109

INFORMATIVE PARAMETERS OF VIBROSEISMIC WAVE FIELDS IN FRACTURED
AND FLUID-SATURATED MEDIA

M.S. Khairetdinov, G.M. Voskoboinikova, G.F. Sedukhina
Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Russia
marat@opg.sscc.ru, gulya@opg.sscc.ru

Seismic heterogeneity of the earths crust is its fundamental property. It is typical of many
earths crust zones: preparation zones of natural disasters (earthquakes and volcano eruptions),
fracture zones, etc. This type of heterogeneity is characterized by local inhomogeneities with
different geometric parameters, contrast, structural organization, and distribution density. In
particular, the geodynamic processes of generation and development of a seismic destruction
source zone in seismic prone zones are considered to be associated with fracturing processes.
Taking into account this, it is natural to use the space-time function of the density of cracks in a
destruction source zone and in zones of anomalous geophysical fields at the earths surface as a
quantitative characteristic of the basic process generating anomalies-precursors. An integral
function of the form
( , , ) U x y t div u =
(where Uis the geophysical field recorded at the earths
surface) was proposed as such a function by A.S. Alekseev. With the help of this function, one can
approximately describe the density of cracks in the medium [1]. The function (x, y, z, t) can be
called the function of mediums dilatancy. The creation of a method to determine the function (x,
y, z, t), specifically, a method of vibroseismic monitoring of seismic prone zones, is an important
problem of active seismology.
Informative parameters of the seismic wave field in active monitoring
The most detailed data on the structure of mediums zones with time-varying fracturing can be
provided by the seismic method of observing P- and S-waves from powerful controllable
vibroseismic sources. The efficiency of the vibroseismic monitoring method on the basis of this
approach is justified theoretically and methodologically in [2]. With the help of this method, the
presence of cracks in destruction zones and the change in their volume density in the periods
between monitoring sessions can be determined from the changes in the anisotropy coefficients and
wave propagation velocities. The main idea of this paper is to increase the list of informative
parameters of seismic wave fields taken as controlled ones in the problem of active monitoring of
fluid-saturated and fractured media.
Parameters of wave field nonlinearity
Mediums fracturing is a physical basis for the development of nonlinear propagation processes
of seismic oscillations in destruction source zones. This is the reason for taking into account the
parameters of wave field nonlinearity characterized by the appearance of higher harmonics which
enrich the initial sounding vibroseismic oscillation. In this paper, the transformation of wave fields
is analyzed by studying vibrational seismograms obtained by vibrational sounding of regions
adjacent to the mud volcano Shugo (Taman mud volcano province). Seismic signals were recorded
along longitudinal profiles at the traverses vibrator-recording seismic station-mud volcano and
vibrator-volcano- recording seismic station. In the latter case, the volcano was located between
the vibrator and seismic station [3].
Spectral-time functions (STFs) were calculated for vibrational seismograms obtained at both
variants of recording [4]. Some forms of functions for the both investigated variants are presented
in Fig. 1. The sounding distance was R=3290 m for the vibrator and seismic station located at the
profile in front of the Shugo volcano and R=3380 m for the volcano located between the vibrator
and seismic station. A comparison of the two obtained STFs clearly shows the contribution of the
volcanic construction to the broadband enrichment of the oscillation spectrum: a tenfold extension
of the dominant oscillation spectrum is observed. Such effects can be related to the transformation
of radiated signals on nonlinear structures of the geological medium at the propagation of seismic
waves in fluid-saturated formations, such as effluent channels of mud volcanoes. A numerical
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110

estimate of the influence of the fracturing process in the medium on nonlinear effects of
propagation of oscillations was obtained for the following model case. Uniformly scattered and
chaotically oriented voids of spheroidal shape are taken as the initial model of fracturing.


Fig. 1. Spectral-time functions of vibrational correlograms obtained at:
a) R=3290 m (the volcano is on one side of the vibrator and seismic station);
b) R=3380 m (the volcano is between the vibrator and seismic station)

The shape of the voids is determined by the parameter o, which is equal to the ratio between
the rotation axis length of a spheroid and the length of its second axis. The distribution of the
relative volume of voids between its minimal value
min
o
and maximal value max
o
is described by
the function (o). It is assumed that the length of an elastic wave with the highest frequency
propagating in the medium being modeled is much greater than the linear dimensions of the largest
voids. In a fractured medium there appear harmonics of doubled frequency. Their level is
determined by the coefficient B, which depends on the character of the mediums fracturing and its
elasticity parameters, the Mach number
x P
M U c = e
, and the wave travel length x, in which case
the level of the second harmonic increases proportionally with x [5]. The nonlinearity coefficient is
determined by the ratio between the amplitudes of the second and first harmonics of the harmonic
oscillation behind the fractured medium by the following expression:

2
2
1 0
1
8
x p
U Bk x
u
u M
=

(1)

where k
p
=/c
p
, U
x
amplitude of compressional wave u
x
(0,t)= U
x
sinet
This phenomenon was noted earlier as accumulating nonlinearity in a nonlinearly elastic
medium [6-9]. In accordance with equation (1), an analysis of the nonlinearity coefficient as a
function of the characteristics of the mediums fracturing, the amplitude of oscillation velocity U
x

of mediums particles, and the distance x was made. Water-saturated fractured granite with the
following elasticity parameters was chosen as the medium: Youngs modulus E=2.21610
9
Pa, the
Poissons coefficient v=0.44296, the static pressure p
0
=10
3
Pa, the frequency=10 Hz, and the
propagation velocity of the P-wave in granite C
p
=2500 m/s. For these parameters, In Fig. 2a, curves
1 and 2 show the nonlinearity coefficient of the monochromatic wave shape versus the ratio
between the ellipsoid axes describing an elementary fracture. In the process of construction, the
axes were given by the parameters d
min
, d
max
, and d
vert
. The first two parameters correspond to the
minimal and maximal horizontal sizes of spheroids, and d
vert
is the linear vertical size.


b

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The change in the ellipsoid sizes is described by a function of the form ()=1/, where
varies from
min
=d
min
/d
vert
to
max
= d
max
/d
vert
. The curves 1,2 were constructed for the x- wave travel
length x = 10 km; the curves 3,4 for 100 km. The vibroseismic oscillation velocity of the
mediums particles U
x
=30*10
-9
m/s corresponds to curves 1 and 3, and a velocity of 70*10
-9
m/s
corresponds to curves 2 and 4. Fig.2b presents curves for the nonlinear effect accumulation
versus distance at given seismic velocities in a source-receiver distance range of 0.3355 km. It
follows from an analysis of Figs. 2 that the ratio between the second and first harmonics can
increase several times as the sizes of fractures increase and the wave travel path increases.
The field of scattered waves randomly distributed in time and space contains much information
about mediums heterogeneity. It is necessary to determine their especially high sensitivity to fine
structural changes of the complex medium in destruction source zones and thereby extract
additional information about the geodynamic processes. The appearance of scattered waves in
vibrational seismograms after head waves is shown in Fig.3b. In contrast to the vibrational
seismograms obtained for the vibrator and seismic station located at the profile in front of the
volcano (Fig. 3), one can easily see a more complicated structure of seismograms obtained for the
seismic station located behind the volcano. It is evident that this is caused by the passage of
vibroseismic oscillations through the volcano body.



a) The nonlinearity coefficient of the
monochromatic wave shape versus the ratio
between the spheroid axes, , modeling cracks in
granite. Wave travel path: plots 1) and 2 for
x=10 km, 3) and 4) for x=100 km. Oscillating
speed: 1) and 3) -U
x
=30*10
-9
m/s; 2) and 4)-
U
x
=70*10
-9
m/s.


b) Coefficient of nonlinear distortions versus
distance at different seismic velocities. Attenuation
of this coefficient due to wave energy absorption in
the medium is shown by a dashed line. The data
are for the radiation regime of harmonic
oscillations at a basic frequency of 10.3 Hz.
Fig.2 The nonlinearity coefficient of the compressional monochromatic wave as a function of the
characteristics of the mediums fracturing
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Fractals of scattered waves




a) b)
Fig.3. Vibrational seismograms obtained at the traverse vibratorShugo volcano:
a) R=3290 m (the volcano is on one side of the vibrator and seismic station);
b) R=3380 m (the volcano is between the vibrator and seismic station)

Fig. 4 presents the fractals of seismograms, which are projections of STFs (Fig. 1) on the
frequencytime plane, to show the wave field structure in the frequency-time range. The
amplitude values of STFs are shown by different colors.
A 2D representation of the parameters of seismic waves in frequency and time shows, first of
all, compactness of the distribution of the frequency-time parameters of dominant waves (head
waves shown by purple color) recorded at the profile in front of the volcano. On the contrary, the
wave pattern recorded by the seismic station behind the volcano is characterized by the smearing
of these parameters on the frequency-time plane. Thus, the transient character of the field
between these two states caused by the development of the processes of fracturing and fluid-
saturation can be characterized by means of the fractals considered. They, together with other
parameters, can be an efficient instrument for tracking these processes.




b
Fig. 4. Fractals of vibrational seismograms obtained at the traverse vibratorseismic stationShugo
volcano: a) R=3290 m (the volcano is on one side of the vibrator and seismic station); b) R=3380 m (the
volcano is between the vibrator and seismic station)
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Variations of wave shapes in the zone of tectonic fractures
Shape variations of the main seismic wave types are an additional informative feature
characterizing the influence of destruction zones on passing seismic waves. This is the case, first of
all, for S-waves. Earlier, N.N. Puzyrev noticed that the influence of anisotropy on the passage of P-
and S-waves is different. Therefore, it was soon realized that the anisotropy itself is a very bright
characteristic of the medium that can be efficiently studied on the basis of multiwave seismics [10,
11]. Waveform variations were studied in experiments on vibrational sounding of tectonic fractures
in Novosibirsk region. The arrangement of sensors on both sides of the fracture is shown in Fig. 5.


Fig. 5. Profiles of arrangement of sensors on the fracture sides
Fig. 6 shows vibrational seismograms obtained by the CV-40 vibrator for the Z-component
with seismic receivers located on both sides of the fracture at distances 36.1 km ((profile 1)and
39.5 km (profile 2), 86.9 km (profile 3) and 92.9 km (profile 4). When comparing the seismograms
one can clearly see destruction of the waveforms of the main wave types caused by the fracture
structures.
This disruption can be estimated quantitatively by measuring the correlation of waveforms
recorded in front of the fracture and behind it. Table 1 presents estimates of the correlation
coefficients of the vibrational seismograms along the X and Z-component for two fracture zones -
(profile 1-profile 2 and profile 3- profile 4).

Table 1.
Cross-correlation coefficient of waveforms

Sensor
compon
ents
profile
1
profile
2
profile
3
profile
4
Sensor
compon
ents
profile
1
profile
2
profile
3
profile
4
x1 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 z1 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
x2 0,124 0,177 z2 0,620 0,433
x3 0,325 0,167 0,210 0,220 z3 0,513 0,293 0,798 0,509
x4 0,387 0,120 0,091 0,181 z4 0,376 0,333 0,836 0,560
x5 0,177 0,163 0,097 z5 0,840 0,357
x6 0,313 0,144 0,131 0,163 z6 0,424 0,206 0,789 0,377


Correlation coefficients of the form K(x1,x1), K(x1,x2),K(x1,x6); K(z1,z1), (z1,z2),
and K(z1,z6), that is between the seismograms obtained by the first sensor and the seismograms
obtained by the other sensors in zones with P- and S-waves (Table 1), were calculated.

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b
Fig.6. Vibrational seismograms recorded on both sides of the fractures in two zones:
) profile 1and profile2; b) profile 3 and profile 4


One can see from this table that whereas in the column profile 3 (in front of the fracture)
the cross-correlation coefficient values are within 0.6200.840 (on components Z), for profile-4
(behind the fracture) the range of values of the corresponding estimates is 0.3770.560 (on
components Z).
Similar estimates obtained along the Z-component for the profile 1 and profile 2 are 0.424
0.513 and 0.2060.333, respectively. The corresponding estimates obtained along the X-component
f are 0.3130.387 and 0.1240.177, respectively. Thus, there is an evident tendency for a decrease
in the waveform correlation in seismograms introduced by the fracture.
Conclusion
The results presented are based on the multidisciplinary approach developed by
Academician A.S. Alekseev to solve the problem of active seismic monitoring of the processes of
fracturing and dilatancy developing in seismically and volcano prone zones. In addition to the
approach consisting in the tracking of changes in the anisotropy coefficients of the medium and the
propagation velocities of P- and S-waves, it is proposed to take into account the dynamic
characteristics of the wave field. These make it possible to take into account the waveform
variations and nonlinear transformation of wave fields associated with the geodynamic processes
developing in destruction source zones.
This approach is supported by the results of experimental investigations on vibrational
sounding of mud volcanoes in the Taman mud volcano province and the tectonic fracture in
Novosibirsk region. The efficiency of using these parameters of the wave field to solve the problem
of active seismic monitoring is shown. In this case, the problem of estimating the dynamics of
development of geodynamic processes in the destruction source zone becomes a multiparametric
problem, which can be solved by pattern recognition methods.
Acknowledgments
The work has received support from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Grants No. 07-
07-00214; 10-07-00387, 11-07-10000 k, Interdisciplinary Integration Projects of SB RAS No. 16,
57 and 133.
REFERENCES:
1. Alekseev, A.S. A multidisciplinary mathematical model of combined foreshock for earthquake
prediction research // J. of Earthquake Prediction Research, 1993. Vol. 2, no. 2. pp. 137-151.
2. Alekseev, A.S. et al. Active Seismology with Powerful Vibrational Sources /Ed.: G.M. Tsibulchik,
Novosibirsk, Geo publising house of the SB RAS, 2004. - pp. 387.[ in Russian].
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3. Glinsky, B.M., Sobisevich, A.L., and Khairetdinov, M.S. Experience in vibroseismic sounding of
complex geological structures (using the mud volcano Shugo as an example) // Dokl. Ross. Akad. Nauk,
2007. - Vol. 413, no. 3. - pp. 398-402.
4. Glinsky, B.M., Fatainov, A,G., and Khairetdinov, M.S. On a possibility of using vibroseismic methods
to study fluid-saturated and fractured zones // Vestnik of the National Nuclear Center of Kazakhstan
Republic, 2006. Issue 2. pp. 155-160.
5. Verbitskii, T.Z. Peculiarities of elastic wave propagation in nonlinearly-elastic porous media // Problemy
nelineinoi saizmiki, 1987. - Moscow: Nauka. pp. 94 - 103.
6. Korneev Valery A., Kurt T. Nihei and Larry R. Myer. Nonlinear Interaction of Plane Elastic Waves.
Scientific Report, LBNL-41914. Earth Sciences Division, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, University of California, June 1998. Berkeley, California 94720.
7. Nikolaev A.V. Problems of Nonlinear Seismics. Collection of articles Problems of Nonlinear
Seismics. M.: Nauka, 1987, . 5-20.
8. Rudenko O.V., Soluyan S.I. Theoretical fundamentals of nonlinear acoustics. .: "Nauka", 1975, .302.
9. Polyakova A.L. Nonlinear effects in a solid. Sov. Phys. Solid state, 1964, vol.6, 1, p.p. 50-54.
10. Goldin, S.V. and Puzyrev, N.N. Seismic investigations of the earths crust // Collection of Papers of the
Intern. Scient. Conf., November 23 25, 2004. 2004. Novosibirsk Publ. House of SB RAS pp. 5-9.
11. Puzyrev, N.N. Methods and objects of seismic investigations // Introduction to general seismology.
Novosibirsk, 1997 301 p.



VIBROSEISMIC TECHNOLOGY OF DETECTION AND MONITORING
OF SEISMIC- VOLCANO- PRONE ZONES

A.S. Alekseev, G.M. Tsibulchik, B.M. Glinsky,
V.V. Kovalevsky and M.S. Khairetdinov
Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics SB RAS, Russia,
marat@opg.sscc.ru

Introduction
Different kinds of geophysical precursors are used in earthquake prediction to reduce the
probability of unexpected catastrophic earthquakes. Several years prior to such earthquakes, some
anomalies often occur within geophysical fields, such as crustal deformation, seismicity and
electric conductivity. Zones that manifest such anomalies will migrate within a 200300 km
distance from the epicenter of a subsequent earthquake. The migration mechanisms for different
anomalous zones, and the interrelations among them, reflect the evolution of seismotectonic stress
fields, which could contain valuable information.
Over the past 30 years, the data has been collected from a number of different scientific
disciplines and from several different countries, including China, Japan, USA, Greece, Turkey, and
Russia. However, the use of multidisciplinary resources in earthquake prediction, and the results
from them, raised new, important questions with regard to determining the interrelationships
among seismicity processes, variations in geophysical fields, and the sources of anomalies within
Main properties of the integral precursor
Earthquakes occur through the massive rocks failure, which begins in the source zone.
Therefore, study of the pre-failure processes and monitoring of these processes are of major
importance for earthquake prediction. An investigation of the rock failure in samples of various
materials in laboratory, as well as at large scale (in particular Earth crust blocks during
earthquakes), reveal the general regularities of the rock failure process.
Step-by-step development of this process in time is the most general principle. Some
kinetic laws and concepts of the rock failure were established by S. N. Zhurkov and his colleagues
[1]. The relationship describing step-by-step transition from small cracks to larger cracks, when
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smaller cracks reach some critical value, in accordance with the concentration criterion of S. N.
Zhurkov, has the form

*
3
1
, K
NL
=

(1)

where N is the number of cracks of size
L
per unit volume,
*
K
is the critical average distance
between cracks, measured in the units of average cracks length. When the average distance
between cracks becomes smaller than a certain critical value, there is an abrupt reorganization of
the entire system of cracks, with increasing of average crack sizes (in some geometrical proportion)
and decreasing of average volume concentration. Cracks tend to localize in the area of a future
macrofracture. These phenomena are typical for any scale and any regime of loading.
Some geophysical fields can be affected by the microcracks opening. In particular, gas and
fluid permeability increases in those areas of the Earth's crust where this process takes place. As a
consequence, the groundwater level, the intensity of gas flows, and the electrical resistance can
change. Loosening of rocks resulting from the increasing of total cracks volume must also cause
local gravity anomalies. Thus, the crack-density function as a measure of rock failure criteria has
some advantages. One more advantage is that the crack-density function can be more accurately
and reliably determined from multidisciplinary data, owing to its presence in the models of various
geophysical fields - the complementary principle [2, 3]. The results from numerical modeling of
dilatancy zones suggest that cracks of some scale level can be formed at distances of 200300 km
from the source of a future earthquake. Although the earthquake development process is slow
and lasts up to several hundreds of years it is an energy-intensive process. Considerable rheological
changes in the medium take place, and anomalous zones within different kinds of geophysical
fields are forming. Cracks opening in zones with increased shearing and tensile stresses is the most
basic mechanism of change in the medium. Such zones are formed in the vicinity of the sources of
future earthquakes, if the spatial distribution of forces is nonuniform.
Many seismologists consider that the initial stage of crack opening and the subsequent state
of the medium when rock failure develop are connected with the dilatancy of the medium [4, 5, 6].
Dilatancy is the nonlinear loosening of rocks caused by crack formation from shear. This
process takes place when tangential stresses exceed a certain threshold. A dilatancy zone includes
points within an elastic medium, for which the following condition is satisfied:

( ) 0, D P gz Y
t
t o + >

(2)

where is the density of rocks, g is the gravitational acceleration, is the coefficient of internal
friction, Y is the cohesion of rocks, z is the depth of a point, P is the hydrodynamic pressure
11 22 33
1
3
( ), P o o o = + +

(3)

where
ij
are the stresses and
t
is the intensity of tangential stresses:
2 2 2 2 2 2 1/ 2
11 22 22 33 33 11 12 13 23
3
6
2
[( ) ( ) ( ) ( )] . t o o o o o o o o o = + + + + +

(4)


Condition 2 coincides with the Schleicher-Nadai's criterion of rock failure due to of shearing
loads and describes the beginning of the rock rock failure process. It can also be used at the rock
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pre-failure stage (when loading constitutes up to 6090% of the critical value) for describing the
shape of areas with rapid crack growth.
To demonstrate the complex character of dilatancy zones, we use the simplest model of the
Earth's crust, which is taken as a uniform, isotropically-elastic half-space. This complexity
manifests itself even when a point force is a source of tectonic stresses. Exact solutions for elastic
displacements and stresses, from a point source satisfying the conditions of zero stresses at the
surface
0 z =
, were used to model the stress field in an elastic half-space [7]. The domain surface
0 D
t
=
from equation 2 for the double force source at a depth of 15 km is shown in Figure 1.
Here, the parameters of the elastic half-space are as follows:

10
3 2 6
2
6000 / 3 3.48 10 ,
=2900 , 9.9 , 3 10 , =0.5 g
m/ s, Pa
kg/m m/s Pa
,

p p s s
v v v v
Y

o

= =
= = = = =



Fig. 1. Exact solutions for elastic displacements and stresses from a point source satisfying the conditions
of zero stresses at the free surface shows that there are the two dilatancy zones - "source" zone in the
vicinity of the elastic dipole application point and the "surface" zone in the layer near the free surface.
Shapes of "source" and "surface" dilatancy zones in the plane
0 y =
(15 km - source depth, double force
20
0
3 10 N M =
, n=(cos,0,sin),
(0,1, 0) = p
, =30.
Double force is specified in the form of a moment tensor,
0
M = M np
, where
0
M
is dipole
momentum (scalar), np

is dyad characterizing the orientation of a force (n) and the arm of a force
(
p
).

Fig.2. Same as in Fig. 1 but for double force couple
20
0
6.75 10 N M = , ,

= = n p p n , n=(cos,0,sin), (0,1, 0) = p , =30.

The domain surface
0 D
t
=
from equation 2 for the double-force couple source at a depth of
15 km is shown in Fig. 2. The double-force couple is set in the form of a moment tensor,
1
2 0
( ) M = + M np pn
. In this case, the conformable matrix is symmetric.
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Tangential stresses inside the domain
0 D
t
>
dominate over compressional stresses. The
resistance of the medium to shearing forces is overcomed due to cohesion. Conditions favorable to
the increase in the number of cracks are modeled. Note that the mechanisms of crack opening and
the rheological changes of the geological medium in the zone
0 D
t
>
are not described by the
used solutions. The solutions are valid only for determining the transition from the elastic state to
the state of nonlinear loosening.
The interesting feature in Fig. 1 is the formation of two dilatancy zones, which are the
source zone in the vicinity of the source point and the surface zone in the upper part of the
model. Here, the stress field from the source affects mainly the tangential stresses while the
compressional stresses and the hydrostatic pressure just slightly contribute due to the proximity of
the surface.
The behavior of the surface dilatancy zone varies, depending on the following parameters: h
(the source depth), 0
M
(the source intensity), the angle (the force orientation in the source), and
Y (cohesion of the medium's elements). It can vanish with increasing source depth or merge with
the source zone as the source intensity increases. In some cases, the horizontal size of the surface
zone is 200 or more kilometers, with a complex shape when projected onto the Earth's surface. It is
easy to verify that the pattern of displacement in dilatancy zones along the surface can be complex,
particularly when influenced by several sources distributed in space whose intensity varies over
time.
Since anomalous geophysical fields are naturally related to surface dilatancy zones, the
location of the dilatancy zones must be determined as reliably as possible, to effectively investigate
the sources of these anomalies.
The condition of loosening crust rocks, taking into account the mechanisms of crack
formation by tension of the medium, can be written in the form of a new criterion:

1 3 3
3 3
p
p p
,
0
, ,
(1 sin ) (1 sin ) cos , if
if
1 1
2 2



D
Y
o
o o
o o
o o
o o
>
s
<
+


(5)

where, 1
o
and 3
o
are the largest and smallest principal stresses, respectively;

is the angle of
internal friction; Y is the cohesion, and
p
o
is the strength of the rocks. This criterion determines
dilatancy zones under conditions in which the medium can withstand large shearing stresses, but
offers less resistance to tensile forces.
Note that so far, the existence of surface dilatancy zones under real conditions should be
considered a hypothesis. The use of this hypothesis for practical analysis of anomalies within
various geophysical fields is an attempt to find reasons for the evolution of these anomalies, and to
clarify the mechanisms of their interrelation.
Monitoring of the crack-density variation in the source zone is of special importance for
short-range earthquake prediction. This monitoring should not be separated from observations of
the surface dilatancy zone and the anomalous fields associated with it. First, the location of the
future source is not yet known exactly, and its determination is closely related to the behavior of
surface anomalous zones. Second, the reliability and accuracy of estimating the crack-density
function in the source zone depends on the information about field anomalies in surface zones.
Before proceeding to the scheme for estimating the integral precursor in the source using
multidisciplinary monitoring, it is reasonable to consider the mechanism of interrelation between
the crack-formation processes in the source and surface dilatancy areas. Generally, a stress field is
an energy-charged medium in which the interrelation between the source and surface zones is
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realized. The lines of largest tangential stress (or largest tensile stress) provide an estimate for the
predominant orientation of cracks that occur in zones of the source and surface types. When
dilatancy zones of the two types are combined into one zone, there is a joint area of fracturing. This
area combines the surface zones of anomalous fields with the source zone, in which the
development of the rock failure process can directly influence the change in the geophysical
anomalies. When dilatancy areas are separated, the source zone can retain its direct influence on
the anomalies of some fields (for example, on the values of the velocities
p
v
and s
v
) by a joint area
of introduced anisotropy within the medium. The anisotropy coefficients can be expected to vary in
a special way during the crack growth process, because the orientation of the axis of symmetry
remains the same. This can simplify the problem of estimating the average number of cracks by a
high-resolution vibroseismic method [7, 8, 9].
Multidisciplinary model of integral precursor and combined inverse problems

An analysis of crack-system development at earthquake sites prior to seismic activity shows
that earthquake prediction of rock failure should include a determination of the major space-time
characteristics of the crack systems at these sites. Such investigations should be performed in the
dilatancy zones where the crack systems are developed.
Observations of geophysical anomalies enable to determine the crack-density function. It
was assumed in the previous section that the crack-opening processes in dilatancy zones are related
to the mechanisms forming anomalous fields. Qualitatively, the formation of anomalies in
gravitational, electric conductivity, ground water level, gas and fluid permeability fields can be
explained by crack opening. It is evident that special investigations are needed to obtain
quantitative models of geophysical fields in fractured media [6].
In the process of deformation prior to the failure, loosening is characterized by the volume
expansion (dilatation) =divU where the divergence is calculated from the elastic displacement
vector. It is assumed here that the vector components are sufficiently smooth (differentiable)
functions. If we consider a small volume 0
V
, which is 1
V
after the deformation, then V
1
=V
0
(1+).
If the medium's density is 0

, after deformation it is
1
=
0
/(1+). For the large, deformed
volumes, this loosening is considerable. It generates an anomaly in the gravitational field
0
( , , 0) ( , ), V x y V x y =
which we can use to solve the inverse problem
V=-4
1
, V\
z=0
= V
0
(x,y) , (6)
to determine the density
1
(x,y,z)=
0
/(1+)), and the loosening (if this inverse problem can be
solved uniquely and the initial density is known). The main difficultythe one that leads us to
consider multidisciplinary (combined) statements of inverse problemsis that the inverse problem
(6) does not have a unique solution. It is ill-posed, an attempt to find a three-dimensional function
1
( , , ) x y z
using a known two-dimensional function V
0
(x,y). This is impossible without
additional information.
The significance of combining inverse problem statements is in the use of additional
information from the solution to state a new inverse problem for the same physical quantity. The
approach to determining the characteristics of cracking (the integral precursor) using data from
geophysical anomalies also can utilize the idea of the surface dilatancy zone. Let us introduce a
medium's volume expansion (loosening) function
( , , , ) x y z t
. This function can be considered
piecewise continuous; and it is assumed to be equal to the total relative volume of cracks in the
medium's unit volume. The number of cracks in the unit volume can be determined by the formula
N=(x,y,z,t)/
L
(x,y,z,t) where
L
(x,y,z,t) is the relative average volume of a crack of length
. L
In
problems of crack-number monitoring, this quantity is determined from the estimate of the
medium's mechanical parameters, the average crack sizes at the previous scale level of process
development in the source, taking into account the concentration criterion (1).
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Let us consider a combined inverse problem for the gravitational and electric data, for the
problem of the groundwater level evaluation, and the seismic method for measuring the effective
anisotropy coefficients of cracked rocks, on the basis of the complementary principle of
geophysical methods [2] to obtain reliable estimates of the function
( , , , ) x y z t
. Each of these
methods is based on measurements at the surface 0 z = of the corresponding geophysical field

0
0 ( , , ( , , , ) ),
k k
t U x y x y t U
v v
=

(7)

here, k
t kT
v
=
, with
T
v the time interval between the recording times of field values during
monitoring.
Methods for solving direct and inverse problems exist for all geophysical fields that are used
in the problem of earthquake prediction. In direct problems, the equation for the field

( , , ) ( , , , ), L U f x y z t
v v v v v
o | =

(8)

the surface conditions
( , , ) | ( , )
s
l U h s t
v v v v v
o | =

(9)

and the initial data
0
0
( , , , ) | ( , , ).
t
U x y z t U x y z
v v =
=

(10)
are assumed to be given. Here
( , , ), ( , , ) x y z x y z
v v
o |
are the physical and geometrical
characteristics of the medium;
( , , , ) f x y z t
v are the external volume sources of the field; and
( , ) h s t
v are the sources at the surface S. The statement of the combined inverse problem is
illustrated by Fig. 3.



Fig. 3. Statement of the combined inverse problem. The physical and geometrical characteristics of the
medium
( , , ), ( , , ) x y z x y z
v v
o |
, the field sources and the surface surfaces S
i


Numerical methods for solving direct problems exist of any above-mentioned fields. These
methods use specified geological medium's characteristics
( , , ), ( , , ) x y z x y z
v v
o |
, the field
sources, and the surface S. In inverse problems, the following information is known: the field
0
( , )
i
U s t
v at a series of points i
s
at the surface S and the sought-for characteristics of the
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121

medium
v
o
,
v
|
, or other elements of the problem (the shape of the surface S , some sources
f
v
or
h
v ).
The model of a multidisciplinary (combined) inverse problem is used to determine the integral
precursor
( , , , ) x y z t
, i.e., the relative crack-density function [10].
In this case, all geometrical and physical parameters of the medium, with the exception of the
function
( , , , ) x y z t
, are considered to be known, and the function
( , , , ) x y z t
is considered to
be independent of time during each field measurement
.
k
t kT
v
=

An optimization method is used to solve the combined inverse problem (. Let
( , , , ) , x y z t
v
|
represent the operator to calculate the field
( , , , ) U x y z t
v in the direct problem
for the method with the number . v The problem consists in determining
( , , , ) x y z t
from the
condition of minimum of the functional:

0 2
1
() min [ ( , ) ( , ,0, ,)] ,
m
k
M
I U x y B x y t
v v v
v

e =
=


(11)

where v

are the weight coefficients for individual methods,


M
is an a priori set of possible
solutions ;
0
( , ) U x y
v is the measured field, and
( , , 0, ) ,
k
x y t
v
|
is the modeled field.
Optimization method traditionally means considerable computational difficulties. They are
associated with simultaneously solving a large number of direct problems for different fields.
Besides, the functional that is being minimized often has many local minimums making searches
for the global minimum difficult. To solve such problems successfully, one should use high-
performance computers and good initial approximations to the sought-for functions. The seismic
method using powerful vibro-seismic sources can yield more detailed data about the medium
structure, including an evolution of fractured zones. Employing observation systems with multiple
overlaps, these sources provide resolution similar to well-known results in seismic prospecting.
Here, we will not consider the capabilities of active seismology using powerful vibrators, signals
from which can be recorded at distances of up to 5001000 km. Rather; we shall consider
vibroseismic sounding of dilatancy zones as necessary instruments to increase the reliability and
accuracy of the obtained information.
Scheme of vibroseismic monitoring of seismic prone zones
The Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences has gathered unique experimental
data from field observations (Alekseev et al., 2005; 2004; 1996; 1995). Seismograms have been
obtained at distances of up to 400 km, and records of mono-frequency signals have been obtained
at distances of up to 1,000 km, by using vibrators with a force of 50, 100, and 250 tons. Among the
important problems for active seismology are the methods for vibroseismic monitoring of seismic-
prone zones and, in particular, a method for determining the function
( , , , )
k
x y z t
. To determine
( , , , )
k
x y z t
, the Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS) scheme can be used, together with the Common
Depth Point (CDP) scheme, at profiles 150200 km in length over the source of an impending
earthquake. At the stage of long-range prediction, the period between soundings can be equal for 6
months to one year. At the stage of short-range prediction, soundings must be more frequent, and
observation systems must be more detailed. We assume that the medium's properties vary only
slightly between measurements. These small variations can be made the major elements of
variability of seismic cross sections, with the help of the interframe correlation method (i.e., by
the subtraction of sequential images of the medium and analysis of increments).
An analysis of experiments on rock failure shows that the variability in crack sizes is larger
than the variability in the dominant orientation of cracks [11]. Sometimes crack sizes vary abruptly
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122

during the transition to the next scale level of rock failure [1]. This property enables us to simplify
and refine the algorithms for processing vibroseismic observations.



Fig. 4. The general scheme of monitoring of the medium using vibrational source. Vibroseismic
observation profile of P, SV, and SH waves for the monitoring function
( , , , )
k
x y z t
in the dilatancy
zone. This function characterizes the development of systems of cracks in the earthquake source and in
anomaly zones of of geophysical fields. To determine
( , , , )
k
x y z t
, the Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS)
scheme can be used together with the Common Depth Point (CDP) scheme at profiles 150200 km in
length over the source of a preparing earthquake.

A general scheme of monitoring is shown in Fig.4. Automatic data processing using this
scheme assumes the development of migration methods and the solution of inverse dynamic
problems for the total system of equations for elasticity theory in an anisotropic medium:
2
2
ij
i
j i
U
x x t
o

u
+ =
c c
c c c
c

(12)
with the generalized Hooke's law
) , ( , , ,
f s s kj ij ik
C K K o v c =

(13)
here,
ij
o
are the stresses;
kj
c
are the deformations;
u
is the gravitational potential; ik
C
are the
effective parameters of anisotropy for the fractured medium; s
v
is the Poisson's coefficient for the
imbedding (elastic isotropic) medium; s
K
is the modulus of volume deformation in the imbedding
medium;
f
K
is the modulus of volume deformation for the liquid or gaseous phase in the porous
half-space; and

is the volume density of cracks.


Equations 12 (often lacking the term with the gravitational potential) and Hooke's law (equation
13) are widely used in geophysics to describe seismic waves in fractured media. There are several
formulations of the generalized Hooke's law, with the anisotropy coefficients approximating the
wave processes in fractured media at low frequencies [12,13]. The density of cracks

is present
explicitly in Hooke's law (equation 13); it depends on the assumed shape of cracks. The following
formula is given in [14]:
2
2
.
e
NA
P
e
t
=
This formula defines the density of cracks e for densely
packed N parallel-plane elliptic cracks of the area
A
with perimeter
e
P
. It is valid for any plane
cracks with a convex boundary shape.
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Equations 12 and 13 form the basis for the seismic data processing in seismic prospecting and
seismology. In practice, simplified kinematic approaches have been used so far.
The observation scheme of waves reflected and refracted from the Moho surface in the Earth's
crust, using vibro-seismic sounding of the source and surface dilatancy zones, is shown in Figure 4.
The presence of fractures in these zones, and the changes in their volume density during the
periods between monitoring sessions, can be determined from the changes in the anisotropy
coefficients and wave propagation velocities. The transverse wave
S
splits into
SV
and
SH

waves at the boundaries of dilatancy zones. The depth and shape of the boundaries, as well as the
wave propagation velocities, can be determined (by well-known methods) from the lags
SV
t A
,
SH
t A
in the arrivals times of the corresponding waves at the points
i
SV
B
,
i
SH
B
, ant the source
located at the point
i
A
.
For the fractured model of the type [14] the velocities of all three wave types
P
v
,
SV
v
, and
SH
v
are determined by the formula
0
1 ( )
,
v
v
ef
=
+
where
0
v
is the wave velocity in the
medium before the appearance of cracks, ( ) f is one function for all types of waves [13,15] and

is the angle between the direction of wave propagation and the direction normal to the
orientation of plane cracks. The quantity
e
from equation 13 and equation 14 is the sought-for
function
( , , , )
k
x y z t
. It can be determined not only from seismic monitoring data, but also from
routine seismologic observations of the velocities
( )
P k
v t
,
( )
SV k
v t
, and
( )
SH k
v t
at seismic
stations.
The estimation of sensitivity of the method of active monitoring of changes in the elastic
characteristics in the interior Earths crust zone was made using mathematical modeling
(Kovalevsky, 2006). The model of the Earths crust-mantle system in the form of a layer at a half-
space with different velocity values of elastic waves is considered. The mathematical statement of
the problem is made in the in the approximation of the wave equation. It is assumed that the
vibrational source is a point and harmonic one, with a constant oscillation frequency, and that the
zone of changes of the characteristics in the medium is spherical. The wave field in the medium is
calculated in the ray approximation. Wave field variations in the medium and at the free surface are
determined for the case of small velocity changes in the spherical region by calculating the beam
pattern of a fictitious 3D source in diffraction approach. As a result of the modeling the estimation
of sensitivity of active monitoring method with harmonic vibrational signals was done.
It was shown that the relationship between the relative variations in velocity within the zone of
parameter variation and those of the amplitudes of the recorded signal is as follows:

2
3
0 0
3 10 .
V Z Z S
V S
c u R R
c u r R r
o o
o

| || |
=
| |
\ .\ .

(14)

here
/ c c o
are the relative variations in wave velocities in the zone of parameter variation, u/u
are the relative variations of the signals amplitude recorded on the free surface,
V Z
R

is the
distance between the vibrator and the zone of parameter variation,
Z S
R

is the distance from the
zone of parameter variation to the recording point (seismometer),
0
r
is the radius of the zone,

is
the wavelength, , and is the reflection coefficient, lying within 0.151 for the model and the wave
velocities in the core and mantle. Experience shows that variations in the amplitudes of mono-
frequency signals at distances of 100400 km from the vibrator, at the existing microseismic noise
level, can be determined with an accuracy of
2
10

. Therefore, monitoring at the frequency


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124

6 f Hz = (character wavelength 1 = km) and at typical source-recorder and source-anomaly
distances of 50100 km, and for the zone of parameter variation with a radius of 110 km, gives
the following estimates of the relative variations in seismic wave velocities:
2 3
0
5 6
0
1 km, / 10 10 ,
10 km, / 10 10 .
r c c
r c c
o
o


= =
= =

(15)
The obtained estimates show that the sensitivity of the active monitoring method is very high
for seismologic methods. This suggests its potential effectiveness tracing changes in the stressed-
deformed state in dilatancy zones of the future earthquake.
Conclusion

This paper describes the formation of surface dilatancy zones, which can cause variations in
geophysical fieldsearthquakes precursors. This process is illustrated by using an example of
point sources of the following types: double force and double pair of forces. The necessary
condition for the creation of dilatancy zones is the Earths surface that is free from stresses. In this
case, dilatancy zones are formed from any distribution of forces, creating a nonzero component of
shearing stresses. Therefore, most earthquakes are accompanied by the creation of such zones. It
should be noted that the existence of surface dilatancy zones under real conditions at this point
should be taken as a hypothesis. Using this hypothesisfor practical analysis of extensive
accumulated data on the monitoring of anomalies at various geophysical fieldsis an attempt to
find reasons for the evolution of these anomalies and elucidate the mechanisms of their
interrelation. A mathematical model of an integral earthquake precursor is developed. Physically, it
represents the space-time function of crack density in a zone of the highest stresses and on the
Earths surface, which manifests itself in anomalous geophysical fields. Mathematically, the
integral precursor is determined using the optimization method of a multidisciplinary (combined)
statement of the inverse problem for the corresponding geophysical fields (the field of
displacements and deformations on the Earths surface, electric conductivity field, anomalies of the
gravitational field, the groundwater level, etc.). A vibro-seismic monitoring scheme of dilatancy
zones is discussed in detail. Estimates of the accuracy obtained with the use of this scheme, which
employs powerful vibrators and recording systems capable of long signal accumulation, are
presented. We show that it is possible to detect the relative changes in seismic wave velocity about
10
-5
- 10
-6
in the

internal zone with radius 10 km using vibromonitoring system with 100 tons
vibrator and recording system with 50-100 km offset. These estimates show the high resolution of
active vibro-seismic monitoring compared to standard seismological methods for the probing of
seismic-prone zones within the Earth's crust.
Acknowledgments
The work has received support from the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Grants No. 07-
05-00858, 07-07-00214, 10-07-00387, 11-07-10000k; Fundamental Research Program of RAS No.
16.5 and, 16.6; Interdisciplinary Integration Projects of SB RAS No. 16, 57 and 133.
REFERENCES:

1. Zhurkov S.N. 1968, Kinetic concept of the strength of solids: Vestnik Akad. Nauk SSSR, 3, 46-52 [in
Russian].
2. Alekseev A.S. 1992, Complementary features of geophysical methods and the computational aspect of
joint data inversion: Proceedings of 54th Meeting of European Association of Exploration Geophysics,
Paris, 750-751.
3. Alekseev A.S. 1993, A multidisciplinary mathematical model of combined foreshock for earthquake
prediction research: Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research, 2, 137-151.
4. Nikolayevskii V.N. 1982, A review: Earths crust, dilatancy and earthquakes: in Advances of Science
and Engineering: Moscow, Mir publishing house, 133-215 [in Russian].
5. Nur A. 1971, Effects of stress on velocity anisotropy in rocks with cracks: Journal of Geophysical
Research, 78, 2022-2034.
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125

6. Brace W.F., B.W. Paulding, and C. Scholz, 1966, Dilatancy in the fracture of crystalline rocks: Journal
of Geophysical Research, 71, 3939-3952.
7. Alekseev A.S., A.S. Belonosov, and V.E. Petrenko, 1999, On the multidisciplinary approach to
determination of an integral earthquake precursor: Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research, 10, 462-
471.
8. Alekseev A.S., N.I. Geza, B.M. Glinsky, A.F. Emanov, V.N. Kashun, V.V. Kovalevsky, A.K. Manshtein,
B.G. Mikhailenko, V.S. Seleznev, S.V. Serdukov, A.L. Sobisevitch, L.E. Sobisevitch, V.M. Soloviev,
M.S. Khairetdinov, I.S. Chichinin, and V.I. Yushin, 2004, Active Seismology with Powerful Vibrational
Sources: Novosibirsk, ICM&MG SB RAS, Filial Geo publishing house of the SB RAS, [in Russian].
9. Alekseev A.S., B.M. Glinsky, A.F. Emanov, V.V. Kovalevsky, B.G. Mikhailenko, V.S. Seleznev,
V.I. Yushin, M.S. Khairetdinov, D. Kasahara, T. Sato, and K. Mochizuki, 1996, Investigation of the
structure of the vibroseismic field from powerful sources, in Problems of Geoacoustics - Methods and
Facilities: Moscow, MSMU publishing house, 155-160
10. Alekseev A.S., and G.M. Tsibulchik, 1997, Inverse dynamic problems of wave diffraction in the problem
of seismic monitoring, in Vibrational sounding of the Earth vibrosounding): Moscow, Nauka publishing
house, 22-25 [in Russian].
11. Petrashen G.I., 1978, Fundamentals of the mathematical theory of elastic wave propagation, in Issues of
the Dynamic Theory of Seismic Wave Propagation: Leningrad, LSU publishing house, 18, 1-248 [in
Russian].
12. Budiansky B., and R. J. OConnell, 1976, Elastic moduli of a cracked solid: International Journal of
Solids and Structures, 12, 81-97.
13. Crampin S., 1978, Seismic wave propagation through a cracked solid: polarization as a possible
dilatancy diagnostic: Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 53, 467-496.
14. Hoenig A., 1979, Elastic Moduli of a Nonrandomly Cracked Body: International Journal of Solids and
Structures, 15, 137-154.
15. Garbin H., and L. Knopoff, 1975, Elastic moduli of a medium with liquid-filled cracks: Quarterly of
Applied Mathematics, 33, 301-303.


DISPLAYING OF THE FIELDS INDUCED BY A FAULT IN AN INTERACTIVE MODE:
APPLICATION TO THE EL-ASNAM EARTHQUAKE (ALGERIA, 10/10/1980, M=7.2)

Kariche J ugurtha
1,2
, Boughacha Mohamed Salah
1
1
Universit des Sciences et de la Technologie Houari Boumdine, FSTGAT Department of
Geophysics, BP 32, 16120, El Alia, Bab Ezzouar, Algiers, ALGERIA
2
Centre de Recherche en Astronomie, Astrophysique et Gophysique,
CRAAG, BP 63, Algiers, ALGERIA
m_sboughacha@yahoo.com, jkariche@gmail.com

We present a computer program in an interactive mode, enabling to display the response of a
fault (or a serial of faults) in terms of displacement, strain, and stress fields. The sources are
embedded in an elastic half space (at a given depth), and are required their sizes (length, width,
dislocation) and their focal mechanisms (strike, dip, rake). Using Okadas subroutine, computations
are made at nodes of a 0.50.5 km grid. Our code is validated by using published cases. Three
models of the El-Asnam earthquake (Algeria, 10/10/1980, M=7.2) are studied in detail, taking into
account the complexity of the deformation. The calculated displacements are in good agreement
with those observed. The generalized Angeliers parameter A

confirms the compressive state of


the region. The calculated fields are superimposed on Google Earth maps by several KMZ files.
This software can be used for both educational and research purposes.
Keywords: displacement, fault, interactive mode, strain, stress.
1. INTRODUCTION

The theory of dislocation was used by Steketee [15] to compute the static change caused by
fault movement. In his turn, Chinnery [6] used this work for calculating the field of displacement
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126

by analytical expression. Okada [12] generalized these expressions to deduce those of deformation
field.
In this work, we use the Okada's code DC3D [12] to study the response of a fault in terms of
displacement, strain, and stress.
The programme we present allows computing the displacements and deformation related to a
single or a serial faults. The stress field is given by Hookes law. It is interactive, written in
Fortran77 language and compiled under Linux platform, using Shell scripts. As input, it is required
the earthquake parameters; the output consists of the displacement, strain and stress fields.
The models were constrained by geodetic measurements (Ruegg et al. [14], Meghraoui and
Doumaz [11]) .
An example of calculation of the generalized shape parameter from Angelier [2], which
represent the tectonic regime of the area of study, is also presented.

2. FAULT MODELING

Modeling includes examples of hypothetical faults and also an application on a real case
(10/10/1980 El Asnam earthquake, M =7.2). We present the steps of modeling in order to illustrate
how the programme runs.
2.1. Major Routines

The program includes two major routines.

2.1.1. Routine 1
It requires the sources parameters: strike, dip, rake, length, width, depth, and geographical
coordinates of the upper middle point of the fault.

2.1.2. Routine 2
It uses the Okada's subroutine in order to compute the displacement, strain. Stress fields are
deduced from Hookes law. The calculations are made at the nodes of a 0.5x0.5 km horizontal grid,
at a given depth.

2.2.Validation of the program

The program is validated through published examples.

2.2.1. Test 1
It is given by Okada [12] and consists of a strike-slip fault, located at 6 km depth, with dip =
40, length L=12 km, width W=8 km, and a uniform slip U=50 cm. The fields are calculated on the
surface (Fig.1).
2.2.2. Test 2
It is provided by Boughacha [5] and consists of a rectangular fault with (dip, strike) = (60,
45), dimension (20 X 10 km) and a dislocation of 1 meter.
Like in the first test, the fields are computed on the surface. It is displayed in vector mode for
the horizontal component of displacement, and contouring map for the vertical component of
displacement (Fig.2).

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127


(a) (b)


(c) (d)
Fig.1. Displaying of the displacement field calculated on the surface, compared with that obtained by
Okada [12]: a) horizontal component U
x
, b) horizontal component U
y
, c) vertical component U
z
,
d) dilatation (10
-6
)


(a) (b)
Fig.2. Displaying of the displacement field calculated on the surface, compared with that obtained by
Boughacha [5]: a) Horizontal component of displacement in vector mode,
b) Contour map of vertical component

2.2.3. Test 3
It refers to the model of Ruegg et al [14] related to the El Asnam (Algeria) earthquake of
10 October 1980. This model consists of 4 panels (Table 1+ Fig.3) illustrating the vertical
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128

movement induced by this earthquake. The maximum observed and computed values are
respectively 5.71 and 5.15 m, consolidating the validity of the program.
Finally, we can say that the results of all tests are concordant.

Table 1.
Fault panel data for the model in this study

Coordinates
(UTM, zone 31)
Depth
Dimensions
(km)
Orientation Fault Slip (m)
Panel X (km) Y (km) Z (km) L W Dip () Strike () Sinistral Reverse
1 353.19 4001.46 11.28 10.0 10.0 70 57.5 1.0 1.0
2 357.03 4007.12 11.26 6.0 12.5 60 44.1 2.0 3.0
3 362.60 4015.03 12.14 10.0 14.9 54 40.5 1.0 8.0
4 375.56 4024.12 12.14 8.0 13.0 54 67.0 0.0 3.0

Fig.3. Vertical co-seismic displacement induced by the El Asnam earthquake
(Algeria, 10/10/1980, M=7.2): the computed field is represented by red color (positive).
The green triangle indicates the displacement observed (5.15 m) by Ruegg et al [14],
in agreement with that calculated by our model (5.71 m).

Fig.4 shows the values of displacement for the same model ( Ruegg et al [14] ) at 5 km
depth. We represent the same field in two visualization modes: the Google Earth mode in which
the maximum value of displacement is indicated by green triangles, and the Shaded-relief mode in
which the maximum value is indicated by purple ( positive value ) and blue ( negative values ),
respectively .
We observe that the values of the displacement decrease in depth (the green triangles show a
maximum value of 0.22 m and a minimum value of -2.60 m).
The positive values of displacement are represented by purple color in Google Earth mode
(Fig.4-a) and purple-red color in Shaded-relief mode (Fig.4-b).
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129




(a) (b)
Fig.4: Vertical co-seismic displacement induced by the El Asnam earthquake at 05 km depth in
two modes: a) the Google-Earth mode in which the computed field is represented by purple color
(positive). The green triangles indicate the maximum and the minimum displacement observed
(0.22 m and 2.6 m); the red rectangle represents the fault trace; the orange circles indicate the
USGS aftershock location. b) the Shaded-relief mode representing the same computed field. We
assign the purple and blue colors to the maximum and the minimum, respectively.


The horizontal displacement at the surface of the El Asnam earthquake is represented in
vector mode (Fig.5b). Our computing method is constrained by the computing method based on
the Poly3D software used for the same earthquake by Bellabes [3] (Fig.5-a). Our results are
concordant with those found by Bellabes [3].


(a)


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130


(b)

Fig.5. Horizontal displacement computed from: a) the Bellabes modeling [3] based on Poly3D software:
the A, B, and C sections show the different panels used; the beach ball represents the focal mechanism of
the El Asnam earthquake. b) Our modeling: the red rectangles represent the trace of fault; the result is in
agreement with that calculated from the Poly3D software [3]


3. DISPLAYING THE TECTONIC REGIME OF THE EL ASNAM EARTHQUAKE

The Angeliers shape parameter [2] is a reduction of the general tensor T, deduced from
the diagonal form of the stress tensor (principal axes), using the following steps.
1 We extract
3
from the diagonal elements
2 We divide the diagonal tensor by the quantity (
1

3
) which is called the maximum
stress difference
3 Finally, we express T in the following form
T = k
1
I + K
2
T

where k
1
=
3
, I is the identity matrix, k
2
=
1

3
, T

is the matrix reduction parameter, given by

[



]
such as
= (
2

3
)/(
1

3
)

We can now write the generalized shape parameter including information about

the shape of stress tensor
and
the vertical axis of principal stress

enabling to have the fault type.
We must define a coordinate system (

,

,

) in the stress space enabling to view
geometrically the parameter (fig.6).
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131



Fig.6. Geometry of space stress: view from below. The Anderson fault parameter, A

,
is the distance along the hexagon from the projection of the

axis. The numbers at the corners indicate


the values of A

(Simpson [16]).

The relation between and A

is given in the following manner: if the type of fault


is normal, strike-slip or reverse, then we assign the numbers n = 0, 1, and 2, respectively.
Following (Simpson [16]), this relation takes the form:

A

= (n +0.5) + (-1)
n
( -0.5)
A

varies from 0 to 1 for a normal fault, from 1 to 2 for a strike-slip fault, and from 2 to 3
for a reverse fault (Fig. 6).
An application of A

is made for the El Asnam region (Algeria) through Fig.7, using the
parameters of the 1980 earthquake, confirming the compressive regime in this area.


Fig.7. Fault type parameter of the El Asnam region.
A

values are ranged between 2 and 3 confirming the compressive state of this area.
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132


4. Conclusion
The present software can be used to compute the elastic fields induced by one or more faults
in a very short period of time. Input consists of fault parameters; output consists of elastic fields
(displacement, strain and stress). It is interactive and accessible to everyone, for both academic and
purposes research. It can also be used for more complex problems such as GPS data inversion, or
solving problems related to stress tectonic regime, by using the A

function.

REFERENCES:

1. Anderson. E.M. (1951), The dynamics of faulting and dyke formation with application to Britain, 2
nd

Ed, Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh, 206 p.
2. Angelier J. (1979), Determination of the mean principal stresses for a given fault population,
Tectonophysics, T17-T26.
3. Bellabes S. (2008), Caractrisation de la dformation active par lInterfromtrie Radar (InSAR):
Failles sismiques aveugles et caches de lAtlas Tellien (Algerie ) et du Rif (Maroc) le long de la limite
des plaques Afrique-Eurasie, PhD Thesis , University of Louis Pasteur-Strasbourg I , Strasbourg, 195 p.
4. Bezzeghoud M., Dimitrov D., Ruegg J.C. and Lammali K. (1995), Faulting mechanism of the El Asnam
(Algeria) 1954 and 1980 earthquakes from modelling of vertical movements. Tectonophysics, p.249
266.
5. Boughacha M.S. (2005), Analyse de la sismicit de lAlgrie. Application ltablissement des cartes
des IMO et CFF, PhD. Thesis, University of Bab Ezzouar, USTHB, Algiers, 289 p.
6. Chinnery M.A. (1963), The stress changes that accompany strike-slip faulting, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 53
5, p. 921-932.
7. Erickson L.L. (1986), A three-dimensional dislocation program with applications to faulting in the
Earth, M.Sc. Thesis, Stanford University, Stanford, California, 167 p.
8. Healy D., Yielding G. and Kusznir N. (2004), Fracture prediction for the 1980 El Asnam, Algeria
earthquake via elastic dislocation modelling. Tectonics, 23 (6), TC6005.
9. Jaeger J., Cooke N.G.W. and Zimmerman R. (2006), Fundamentals of rock mechanics, fourth edition,
Blackwell Publishing, 509 p.
10. Mahsas A. (2009), Variation de la contrainte de Coulomb: Cas de lAlgrie, Magister. Thesis,
University of Bab Ezzouar, USTHB, Algiers ,107p.
11. Meghraoui M. and Doumaz F. (1996), Earthquake-induced flooding and paleoseismicity of the El
Asnam (Algeria) fault-related fold, J Geophys. Res., 101,17617-17644.
12. Okada Y. (1992) internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half space: Bulletin of The
Seismological Society of America, v. 82, p. 1018-1040.
13. Shearer P.M. (2009), Introduction to Seismology: Second Edition, Cambridge University Press, 412p.
14. Ruegg J.C., Kasser M., Tarantola A., Lepine J.C. and Chouikrat B. (1982), Deformations associated
with the El Asnam earthquake of 10 October 1980: Geodetic determination of vertical and horizontal
movements, Bull. Seismo. Soc. Am., 72, p.2227-2244.
15. Steketee J.A. (1958), On Volterras dislocation in a semi-infinite elastic medium, Can. J. Phys.36,
p. 192-205.
16. Simpson R.W. (1997), Quantifying Anderson's fault types, journal of geophysical research, vol.102, b8,
p. 17,909-17,919.
17. Volterra V. (1907), Sur l'quilibre des corps lastiques multiplement connexes .Annales Scientifiques de
l'Ecole Normale Suprieure ,24(3) ,1907.5, 6, p. 401-517.


Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
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133

DIFFERENTIATION OF LOCATION OF SEISMIC SOURCES IN
GEOCHEMICAL FIELDS FLUIDS
R.A. Keramova, P.A. Abdulrazagova,

O.O. Osmanova
Azerbaijan National Academy of Science (ANAS),
Republican Center of Seismic Survey (RCSS)
E-mail: seys@azeurotel.com

In Azerbaijan the area Shamahi is most seismically active region on the southeast
termination of the megantiklinorium of Big Caucausus. The centre of the last sensational
earthquake which has occured 12.19.2008 of year with magnitude pv=5.2 was near to village
Damirchi. This site concernns to southeast slope of a Mikhtokian ridge. For the period 1980-2008
in the given centre repeatedly occured earthquakes with maqnitude Mpv=4.04.8 and above
[Qasanov, 2003; Mamedli, 2006, Keramova 2005, Keramova, Kerimova (Abdulrazagova), 2007
and etc.]. Considering scientific and practical importance seismoproqnostic in the given territory,
here, since 1980 on present time (2011 year) experts (RCSS of ANAS) spend complex works as
various methods (seismological, geophysical, seismogeochemical). The purpose of these
researches: a) carrying out of stationary, b) all-the-year-round monitoring of fields of the various
nature on objects of supervision; c) studying of influence of seismic processes on objects of
supervision; g) revealing of informative harbingers of earthquakes; d) development the express
train-methods of operative diagnostics of the dangerous seismic centres on various fields; e) an
estimation of seismic conditions in region in a real mode of time.




Fig. 1. Zone of Vandams fault, Shamakhi area, Mikhtokyans hypocentre of earthquakes
(Absheron - well "Shihov 1")

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
1
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
0
3
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
0
8
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
1
0
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
1
4
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
1
6
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
2
1
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
2
3
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
2
5
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
2
9
.
1
1
.
2
0
0
5
0
1
.
1
2
.
2
0
0
8
0
3
.
1
2
.
2
0
0
8
0
5
.
1
2
.
2
0
0
8
1
0
.
1
2
.
2
0
0
8
1
2
.
1
2
.
2
0
0
8
1
6
.
1
2
.
2
0
0
5
2
6
.
1
2
.
2
0
0
8
3
0
.
1
2
.
2
0
0
8
0
3
.
0
8
.
2
0
1
0
0
5
.
0
8
.
2
0
1
0
0
9
.
0
8
.
2
0
1
0
1
1
.
0
8
.
2
0
1
0
1
3
.
0
8
.
2
0
1
0
1
7
.
0
8
.
2
0
1
0
1
9
.
0
8
.
2
0
1
0
mg/l
.
Mg
November - 2005 year
December - 2008 year
19.12.2008 -
Azerbaijan,
Shamakhi area, vil.Demirchi
(ml=4.7; M
PV
=5.4;
K=11.5; h=14 km)
20.12-31.12.08 - aftershocks
18.11.2005 - Azerbaijan,
Shamakhi area, vil.Demirchi
(ml=4.1; M
PV
=4.9;
K=10.6; h=8 km)
August - 2010 year
17.08.2010 -
Azerbaijan,
Shamakhi city
(ml=3.1; M
PV
=4.0;
K=9.1; h=16 km)
Date
Month,
year
Gen.
rig.
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134

It is known that within one seismogenic zone can be allocated several different types of
seismic sources. Therefore with the assessment of seismic hazard in a particular region, it is very
important to develop methods that will allow quickly differentiate and predict dangerous
seismogenic source, ready for the implementation of the earthquake in a short period of time. One
of them is seismic geochemical method. For a long period of time (1979-2011) in seismically
active zones of Azerbaijan Seismogeochemical Branch of Republican Centre of Seismic Survey of
Azerbaijan National Academy of Science (RCSS ANAS) conducts a year-round seismic
geochemical monitoring of fluids. Based on the obtained data of the analysis, the following
important facts were established: a) short-period (116 days) abnormal perturbation of the
geochemical field of fluids at the sites of observation occurs only at the final stage of the
earthquake preparation, i.e. the period of time, which was left before the realization of the predicted
seismic event corresponds to (116 days); b) informative seismogeochemical parameters are
individual for each seismic source. Proceeding form this fact, all combinations of indicator
elements were arranged on the identification charts, which we conventionally called geochemical
portraits of earthquakes, preparing for implementation.
On the basis of a comprehensive systematic, generalized and analyzed seismic and
geochemical materials, has been created Atlas of the identification of seismic sources on
geochemical fields of fluids of Azerbaijan. On the basis of certification of implemented
hypocenters listed in seismological Catalogue of earthquakes in Azerbaijan (RCSS ANAS), have
been created geochemical portraits of the earthquakes. On this basis also have been established
important facts: a) on seismogeochemical abnormalities by mechanism can be detected different
types of seismic sources; b) the period of time in which abnormalities reflect the strength
(magnitude) and location of the seismic source in space.
The longer an anomaly in the fields of geochemistry of fluids endures, the further is the
location hyposenter and the higher is the value of the magnitude of the forthcoming seismic event.
Empirically was established the range-bound of the distances for the predicted earthquakes in the
Caspian Sea and within the Anatolian-Iran-Caucasus tectonic blocks: a) local (50 km), weak
(Mpv4.0), which occurred in the Caspian Sea and in Azerbaijan; b) distant (500 km), but
strong M
LH
6.0, sources which are in neighboring countries (Russia - Dagestan, Chechen Republic;
Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, Iran). Moreover, within one seismogenic zone on geochemical fields of
different types of fluids can be localized different types of earthquake sources and identify their
association with different tectonic structures. In particular, for Shamakchi seismogen zone have
been established criteria in seismogeochemical fields of fluids given region. This criteria correctly
differentiate hipocenter of the earthquake before realization to geomorphological attributes, for a
mountain and foothill part of region (fig.1.-4.). Researches in RCSS of ANAS with the purpose of
differentiation earthquakes senters in others seismogen zones of Azerbaijan and water area of
Caspian sea to seismogeochemical fields of fluids proceed.

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Fig. 2. Seismogeochemical portrait of earthquakes
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Fig. 3. Zone of Vandams fault, Marazas hypocentre of earthquakes
(Shamakhi area - well "Shamakhi 8")


Fig. 4. Seismogeochemical portrait of earthquakes
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REFERENCES:
1. Gasanov A.G., Keramova R.A. Operative diagnostics of seismic hyposenters of strong and catastrophic
earthquakes of the Anatolian-Iranian Caucasus tectonics block by the geochemical anomalies of fluids
of Azerbaijan. 5th International Conference on Seismology and Earthquake Engineering. Tehran, Iran,
13-17 May, 2007.
2. Keramova R.A. The express-methods of the on-line forecast of horizons of magnitude, time and the
site of the earthquake senter on geochemical fields of fluids. //Science without bordes. Volume 3.
2007/2008. p. 424-432.
3. Keramova R.A. Results of use of express-methods of the operative forecast of earthquakes on
geochemical fields of fluids in Azerbaijan (2001-2007). //Science without bordes. Volume 3. 2007/2008.
p. 424-432.


NEW TECHNOLOGY OF OPERATIVE EVALUATION OF SEISMIC SITUATION ON
GEOCHEMICAL FIELDS OF FLUIDS OF AZERBAIJAN
R.A. Keramova
Azerbaijan National Academy of Science (ANAS),
Republican Center of Seismic Survey (RCSS)
e-mail: seys@azeurotel.com

This work is devoted to the new technology for the rapid assessment of seismic conditions
(calculation of time ranges, earthquake magnitude and location of the hearth) in real time on
geochemical fields of fluids. Its code name is SEISMOGEOCHEMICAL-on-line. These are
first developed rapid methods for identifying dangerous earthquake source zones with seismic
geochemical methods. They were tested for the strong and devastating earthquakes on the basis of
the factual materials of seismic geochemical monitoring in Azerbaijan during 1979-2011. The
objects of monitoring are the fluids of seismic zones of Azerbaijan and the sea water of the shore of
the Caspian Sea.
It is known that for the correct prognosis of strong earthquake it is necessary to indicate 3
main parameters: the strength (magnitude) of a future seismic event, location of the source and time
of its implementation. For today in the world reliable mathematical methods of forecasting of key
parametres of hypocenter are not developed. In Branch of Seismogeochemistry of Republican
Senter of Seismic Survey (RCSS) are made the first steps for the decision of the given problem are
made. The region of an estimation of seismic conditions includes water area of Caspian sea,
Azerbaijan and frontier territory of the adjacent countries (Russia-Dagestan, The Czechen
Republic; Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, Iran). Seismogeochemical all-the-year-round researches in
Azerbaijan are carrying out in RSSC of ANAS from 1979 to present time (2011 year). Objects of
monitoring are fluids of seismoactive zones of Azerbaijan, and also - seawater of coast of Caspian
Sea. These fluids are presented by underground waters, gases, and also - emanations of radioactive
elements of local sites of a surface. They enter in seismogeochemical observation network of RSSC
of ANAS. Thus, the investigated underground waters differ among themselves on genesis,
conditions of migration, stratification depth, temperature, ionic-salt and gas structures, and also
intensity of radioactive radiation. The territory, on which carried out seismogeochemical
monitoring, is seismically active. It includes Absheron archipelago, Shamakhi, Sheki, Siyazan and
Lankaran areas of Azerbaijan, and also - coast of Caspian Sea in Absheron, Siyazan and Lankaran
areas of Azerbaijan (fig.1.). After strong Caspian-Baku earthquake (11.25.2000; pv=6.3; =14)
on the basis of the analysis and interpretation of seismogeochemical monitoring data for the period
1986-2003, we have been developed and introduced essentially new technologies of operative
seismological forecasting not only for Azerbaijan and water area of Caspian sea, but also all
AnatolianIranian-Caucasian tectonic block.
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Fig. 1.Phyzical map of Azerbaijan Republic

Legend:
Stations of the seismogeochemical supervision

We were beginning researches in a new direction. It is operative, in on-line regime,
diagnostics of "dangerous" hypocenters of earthquakes which begun preparing to realization on
anomalies in geochemical fields of fluids.
Scientific novelty of seismogeochemical researches in Azerbaijan, consist of, that for fluids
of observant RSCC NASA network, the epicenters of strong and catastrophic earthquakes
Anatolian-Iranian- Caucasian tectonic block and water area of Caspian sea seismological and
geochemical materials are in a complex systematized, generalized and analyzed.
For the first time in world practice on seismoforecasting operations are created new
technologies (SEISMOGEOCHEMICAL-on-line) of interpretation actual seismogeochemical
material in on-line regime. They include the following the express-methods: a) developing and
testing of formulas for identification of anomalies in geochemical fields of fluids which arise
during preparation of seismic events of various power; b) preparation of algorithms and software
for automatic revealing and formatting of geochemical anomalies under the developed and tested
formulas auto filter of seismogeochemical anomalies; c) developing and testing of formulas for
calculation of magnitude of preparing earthquake; d) for the concrete seismic hypocenters prepared
Atlases of identification of the hypocenters of strong and catastrophic earthquakes on geochemical
fields of fluids.
With these requirements, proposed technology for the rapid assessment of seismic conditions
on geochemical fields of fluids of Azerbaijan reflects the results of creating mathematical and
software security. They consist of the developed and implemented rapid methods:
1. Express-method of revealing the anomalies (formulae) at daily processing of data (197
parameters) of seismic geochemical monitoring for operative evaluation of seismic situation in the
region.
2. Express-method of calculation of diapason of the magnitude (formulae) of the forecasted
earthquake.
3. Express-method of identification of seismic centre on anomalies in geochemical fields of
fluids. It allows determining 2 parameters: a) diapason of location of centre zone which is going
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to be realized; b) diapason of time which is left for realization of the forecasted earthquake in the
interval of 116 days.
4. Empirically was determined the diapason, i.e. horizon of time of forecast of seismic
event on anomalies in geochemical fields of fluids. It equals 116 days.
As a result of experimental works there were determined the following important
regularities:
- at preparation of earthquakes of different magnitude the anomalous disturbance of
geochemical field on the time of appearance and in combinations of elements indicators for
different seismic centres has individual geochemical portrait;
- at repetitive realization of earthquake in the same centre with analogous seismic parameters
(magnitude, depth), its geochemical portrait is stable, i.e. it is the etalon for this earthquake
source;
- within the concrete tectonic fault, in different years, in the same centre zone, in the final
stage of preparation of the earthquake of the equal diapason, the anomalies of identical parameters
are formed. Their combinations are the etalons for concrete center zones within the concrete
tectonic faults.
On basis of the determined regularities have been created:
a) Atlas of etalons for identification of seismic centres on geochemical fields of fluids of
Azerbaijan;
b) Atlas of geochemical portraits of seismic centres of Anatolian-Iranian-Caucasian
tectonic block for all realized strong and catastrophic earthquakes for the period of 1997-2011.




Fig. 2. All-the-year-round seismogeochemical variation in the underground warter well
"Shamakhi 8" -2000 y. (Azerbaijan - Shamakha seismik area)

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Fig. 3. Seismogeochemical portrait of earthquake
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They represent geochemical "portraits" of the seismic epicenters, before realized within the
limits of Great Caucasus meganticlinorium, partially-Kura depressions, Northern Caspian Sea,
Southern Caspian Sea, Middle Caspian Sea, and also in territories, adjacent with Azerbaijan, the
states: Russia - Dagestan, Czechen Republic; Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, Iran (fig.2-5.).
All specified region concerns to the Anatolian-Iranian-Caucasian tectonic block. In this
territory there were many strong and catastrophic earthquakes: 1990-NW Iran, Rudbar; 1999
Turkey, Izmir; 2000 Caspian-Baku; 2003 SE Iran, Bam and etc. Seismogeochemical data daily
enter to department of urgent reports of Seismogeochemical Branch. Here are used all listed
express-methods and made operative estimation of seismic conditions in Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan
and the adjacent states during 1-16 days prior to realization of earthquakes. About 7080 percent of
these forecasts is correct (fig. 6.-7.).
Mistakes, which arise for today at an estimation of seismic conditions in real time, are
connected to the following main reasons:
1) is necessary the extensive regional seismogeochemical network of stations covering all
seismogen zones in the countries, adjacent with Azerbaijan (Russia-Dagestan, Georgia, Armenia,
Iran, Turkey);
2) is necessary the statistic of the geochemical information, which will reflect the period of
preparation of the seismic epicenters of the specified region.
Clearly, that the decision of the present questions it is a challenge demanding the complex
analysis of laws of seismic, tectonic, geophysical and geochemical processes with attraction of
experts, living in the territory of Anatolian-Iranian-Caucasus tectonic block.



Fig. 4. All-the-year-round seismogeochemical variation in the underground warter
well "Shamakhi 8" 2003 y. (Azerbaijan - Shamakha seismik area)



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Fig. 5. Seismogeochemical portrait of earthquakes
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Fig.6.

Fig. 7. The schedule of an estimation of seismic conditions
of seismigeochemical fluids of Azerbaijan (2005 - 2010 yy.)

REFERENCES:

1. Keramova R.A. Abstract of a thesis for a Doctor's degree. Seismogeochemical regime of fluids of
Azerbaijan. Moscow, 2004.
2. Keramova R.A. Influencing of strong and catastrophic earthquakes of the Anatolian-Iranian-Caucasian
tectonic block on a hydrogeochemical regime of fluids of Azerbaijan. The catalogue of seismoforecasting
observations in territory of Azerbaijan (1983-2001 years). Baku, Elm, 2003 year. pp. 179-195.

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Zone
of Vandams
fault

Zone of Talish-
Presmallcaucasus
fault

Kurinian
depression

Caspian
Sea

The
frontied
countries
%
Regions: Caspian Sea Azerbaijan and the frontied countries
2007
2008
2009
2010
The
conditional
designatoions:

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3. Gasanov A.G., Keramova R.A. Operative diagnostics of seismic hypocentres of strong and catastrophic
earthquakes of the Anatolian-Iranian-Caucasus tectonics block by the geochemical anomalies of fluids
of Azerbaijan. 5th International Conference on Seismology and Earthquake Engineering. Tehran, Iran,
13-17 May, 2007.
4. Keramova R.A. The express-methods of the on-line forecast of horizons of magnitude, time and the site
of the earthquake centre on geochemical fields of fluids. //Science without bordes. Volume 3. 2007/2008.
p. 424-432.
5. Keramova R.A. Results of use of express-methods of the operative forecast of earthquakes on
geochemical fields of fluids in Azerbaijan (2001-2007). //Science without bordes. Volume 3. 2007/2008.
p. 424-432.


ESTIMATION OF Q
S
AND SPECTRAL DECAY PARAMETER IN SOUTHEASTERN
IRAN, USING STRONG MOTION DATA OF RIGAN EARTHQUAKES (2010 & 2011)

Maryam Safarshahi
1
, Hossein Hamzehloo
2
, Mehdi Rezapour
1

1
Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Iran
2
International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Iran
m_safarshahi@ut.ac.ir; hhamzehloo@iiees.ac.ir; rezapour@ut.ac.ir

As a wave is propagated through real materials, wave amplitudes attenuate as a result of the
different processes responsible for energy dissipation. This can be summarized as scattering and
intrinsic absorption. Intrinsic anelasticity associated with small-scale crystal dislocations, friction,
and movement of interstitial fluids. The scattering attenuation associated with anelastic process of
redistributing wave energy by reflection, refraction, and conversion at irregularities in the medium
[1]. Numerous studies have been carried out in different parts of the world to determine the seismic
wave attenuation properties of the medium.These studies generally show low values of Q
0
(less
than 200) for tectonically and seismically active regions, high Q
0
values (greater than 600) for
seismically inactive stable regions and intermediate values of Q
0
for moderate regions.
The spectral decay parameter is useful for describing the high frequency ground motion
spectra and has been used extensively to simulate ground motion acceleration from moderate and
large earthquakes. Anderson and Hough [2] defined to describe the shape of the high frequency
spectra. In this model the high frequency fall-off results from attenuation along the propagation
path and near the surface. In the present study the Q
S
and spectral decay parameter kappa, ,has
been estimated for the Rigan region based on the strong ground motion data which was recorded on
the Iran Strong Motion Network (ISMN) installed by the Building and Housing Research Center
(BHRC). The results are utilized for a better understanding of seismotectonic and seismic risk
analysis in engineering seismology.

Tectonic setting

The Iranian plateau is a relatively wide zone of compressed deformation along the Alpine-
Himalayan active mountain belt that is entrapped between two stable platforms, the Arabian plate
in the southwest and the Turan platform (Eurasia) in the northeast. The Iranian plateau includes
some major seismotectonic provinces that are delineated and discussed by several authors [3, 4, 5,
6]. Iran is one of the seismically active areas of the world and is frequently affected by destructive
earthquakes, imposing heavy losses to human lives and widespread damage. The most recent and
active deformation in the Central-East Iran Seismotectonic province is dominated by major N-S or
NNW-SSE right-lateral strike slip faulting with some NW-SE reverse faults and some E-W left-
lateral strike-slip faults (Fig. 1). According to Walker et al. [7], in the south of 34N, the shear is
taken up on right-lateral strike-slip faults that end in the thrust faults whose displacements lie away
toward their ends. The Kuh-Banan, Nayband, Gowk, Bam, Sabzevaran, and Rafsanjan faults are
the main active faults of Kerman province in southeastern Iran, west of Lut Desert (Fig. 1). Central
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Iran is not a linear seismic zone. It is characterized by scattered seismic activity with large-
magnitude earthquakes, long recurrence periods, and seismic gaps along several Quaternary faults.
The earthquakes in central Iran are generally shallow (less than 25 km) and are usually associated
with surface faulting [5]. Several large earthquakes have occurred on the right-lateral strike-slip
fault systems along the western margin of Dasht-e-Lut. In the last 30 years, several destructive
earthquakes have occurred in the Central-East Iran seismotectonic province Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. Epicentres of destructive earthquakes in East of I ran [8]
Data
The study is based on the data recorded by three component strong motion array of ISMN.
Only horizontal components (Longitudinal and Transverse) of these data are used in this study.
Accelerographs are Digital SSA-2 with the threshold of 10 Gals at the sampling rate of 200 sample
per second. This configuration yields a flat acceleration response between the frequencies of 0.01
to 50 Hz. December 20, 2010 earthquake at 18:41:59 (UTC) with magnitude
M
w
=6.5(NEIC),located in 28.32N_59.19E, and January 27, 2011 earthquake at 08:38:28 (UTC)
with magnitude M
w
=6.2(NEIC), located in 28.24N_59.13E, occurred in Rigan region,
Southeastern Iran. These earthquakes recorded on the 24 and 8 stations of ISMN with maximum
accelerations equal to 124 cm/s
2
for the Transverse component recorded at Rigan station and 195
cm/s
2
for the Longitudinal component recorded at Sarzeh station, respectively. Fig. 2 shows the
locations of these two earthquakes used in this study as well as the stations of ISMN.
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Fig. 2. Location of December 20, 2010 earthquake and J anuary 27, 2011
earthquake and the stations of I SMN in Rigan region

These earthquakes have average focal depth of about 17 km. We used the accelerographs
with epicentral distance of less than 100 km and strong signal to noise ratio for a relatively accurate
determination of the quality factor. The recorded data on Rigan, Fahraj, Chah-Malek, Deh-Reza
and Sarzeh stations used in this study. After base line correction, each accelerograph is filtered
using the Butterworth band pass filter of four poles. Six frequency bands are used for this purpose.
Low cut-off and high cut-off of these frequency bands are given in table 1.

Table 1.
Central frequency components of band pass filter with low and high cut-off frequencies

Low Cut-off [Hz] Central Frequency [Hz] High Cut-off [Hz]
1.0 1.5 2.0
2.0 3.0 4.0
4.0 6.0 8.0
6.0 9.0 12.0
8.0 12.0 16.0
12.0 18.0 24.0
Methodology
In this study, Spectral decay method [9, 10, 11, 12] is used for estimation of Q
S
. The Q
S
is
related to frequency as
=
0
n
Q Q f
, where Q
0
is the value of Q at 1.0 Hz and n is frequency
parameter. The observed spectral amplitude, U
i
(f,r), at hypocenteral distance, r, is described as:

= ( , ) ( ) ( , )
i i
U f r S f A f r

(1)
A(f,r) is the attenuation function that describes the decay trend of the observation with
distance and S
i
(f) is a scaler which depends on the size of the earthquake. A homogeneous
attenuation model is adopted to parameterize A(f,r):
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t
|


= ( , ) exp( )
S
f
A f r r r
Q

(2)

where f is the frequency and is the velocity of Shear wave which have been taken as 3.2 km/sec
in east of Iran [8]. The geometrical spreading function is represented as

r
. Substituting equation
(2) to equation (1) gives:

|
t
|

= ( , ) ( ) exp( )
i i
f
U f r S f r r
Q

(3)

Taking natural logarithms of the equation (3), we get:

t
|
= + ( ( , ). ) ( ( ))
i i
S
f
Ln U f r r r Ln S f
Q

(4)

At epicentral distance of less than 100 km, a spherical geometry
= 1
is considered for body
waves. The Q
S
is obtained from the slope of this linear equation,

( ( , ). )
i
Ln U f r r
versus r. Then, Q
S

is calculated for each designated central frequency as:
|
t
|
= ( )
f
Q
b

(5)

Regarding equation (4), shear wave windows are needed in this method. To determine the
shear wave window, Kinoshita algorithm [13] is used for horizontal components. Fig. 3 shows an
example of Kinoshita algorithm for determination of Shear wave window.



Fig. 3. An example of selecting the direct shear wave window by using Kinoshita algorithm (1994) for
Transverse component of J anuary 27, 2011 earthquake at 08:38:28 with magnitude M
W
=6.2,
located in 28.240N 59.130E recorded in Chah Malek station. T
s
and T
e
stand for the estimated onset and
end times of the direct S-wave
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For this purpose, the data of two horizontal components (Longitudinal and Transverse) were
used. The time series, x(n), of both components (n is the sample number) were processed in the
following manner. First, x(n) was band pass (1.0-24.0 Hz) filtered to obtain b(n). For the selection
of Shear wave section in x(n), an acceleration envelope was computed:

= +
2 2 1/2
( ) [ ( ) ( ( ))] e n b n H b n

(6)

where H(b(n)) is the Hilbert transform of band pass filtered time series b(n). Typically, e(n)
increases with the arrival of the Shear wave phase and abates with its passage. To elucidate this
characteristic, the cumulative RMS function was calculated from e(n):

=
=

2 1/ 2
1
1
( ) ( ( ))
k
n
c k e n
k

(7)

where
=1,..., k N
and N is the number of samples of acceleration wave. The end time (Te) of the
Shear wave window was assigned as the point on the time axis where c(k) starts to decrease, as
illustrated in Fig. 3. The onset time of the Shear wave arrival (T
s
), was visually estimated.
After applying a 10% cosine taper to both ends of the filtered Shear wave window, we
extracted spectral amplitudes of the direct Shear wave in each frequency band from Fast Fourier
Transform (FFT) on horizontal components. Fig. 4 shows the Q
S
values for Transverse component
at central frequencies of 1.5, 3.0, 6.0, 9.0, 12.0 and 18.0 Hz.
The plot of Q
S
versus central frequencies is shown in fig. 5. The average Q
S
values of
Rigan region for all frequencies are mentioned in table 2. The Q
S
mean values, vary from 91 at 1.5
Hz to 507 at 24 Hz for Longitudinal component and 104 at 1.5 Hz to 518 at 24 Hz for Transverse
component. The frequency dependent relationships of Q
S
, are
=
(0.58)
(102)
S
Q f
and
=
(0.60)
(96)
S
Q f

for Longitudinal and Transverse components, respectively.

Table 2.
Average Q
S
at different central frequencies, also Q
0
and n values
Central Frequency [Hz] Longitudinal Componente Q
S

Transverse Componente
Q
S

1.5 91 104
3.0 339 228
6.0 255 292
9.0 348 348
12.0 434 415
18.0 507 518
Q
0
102 96
n 0.58 0.60

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Fig. 4. Estimation of Q
S
in Rigan region at six central frequency. The solid line is regression fit and
dashed lines are standard deviations of regression in each regression analysis
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Fig. 5. The plot of Q
S
versus central frequencies for Transverse component. The best-fit line from the
least-squares estimate is indicated by the solid line

The frequency dependent relationships of Q
S
by spectral decay method carry out in
different region such as, Northeastern Sonora, Mexico (
=
0.90
83.8
S
Q f
, [14]), back-arc region of
the Hellenic arc (
=
0.91
55
S
Q f
, [15]), Central Italy (
=
1.30
34
S
Q f
, [12]), region of Marche, Italy (
=
0.70
86.1
S
Q f
, [11]) and Avaj region, Iran (
=
0.99
63
S
Q f
, [16]).
The acceleration spectrum, A(f), at high frequencies can generally be described as:

= >
0
( ) ,
kf
E
A f A e f f
t

(8)

where A
0
depends on source properties, epicentral distance (R), and other path related factors. f
E
is
the frequency above which the spectral shape has an exponential decay and is the spectral decay
parameter [2]. To estimate from the selected recordings, the acceleration spectra were calculated
finding the Fast Fourier Transform of a window containing S-wave arrivals and linear least square
fits to the spectra were obtained. The values of the slopes were converted to the spectral decay
parameter, , and subsequently plotted against the epicenteral distance to evaluate distance
dependence (Fig. 6).




Fig. 6. Dependence of spectral decay parameter on epicenteral distance (R)
for Transverse and Longitudinal components
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The spectral decay parameter, has been estimated at 23 stations (Table 3). There is a
considerable amount of scatter in the individual measurements of . This comes from variability in
the high frequency spectrum as radiated at source or highly variable attenuation in the source
region. The interception of , at zero distance, is controlled by attenuation near the surface, while
an increase of with distance is an effect of lateral propagation. This is important for the
simulation of strong ground motion for engineering applications based on stochastic models.

Table 3.
Estimated on horizontal components and its average value for different stations


Station
Spectral Decay Parameter
L
component
T
component
Average
Abaragh 0.020 0.020 0.020
Bazman 0.030 0.024 0.027
Kahnooj 0.049 0.052 0.051
Kishit 0.052 0.062 0.057
Barvat 0.058 0.061 0.060
Roodbar 0.059 0.058 0.059
Jiroft Dam 0.066 0.074 0.070
Ghale-Ganj 0.067 0.062 0.064
Posht-Rood 0.068 0.066 0.067
Hosein-Abad 0.070 0.061 0.065
Mohamad-Abad 0.070 0.050 0.060
Zeh-Kelot 0.075 0.086 0.080
Fahraj 0.077 0.070 0.073
Rigan 0.078 0.075 0.076
Golbaf1 0.085 0.086 0.086
Qotb Abad 0.087 0.077 0.082
Dalgan 0.088 0.084 0.086
Sirch 0.092 0.090 0.091
Iran Shahr 0.094 0.091 0.092
Chah-Ali 0.095 0.099 0.097
Jiroft 0.102 0.108 0.105
Bampoor 0.102 0.102 0.102
Darbehesht 0.104 0.103 0.103
Conclusions
In this study, Q
S
has been estimated for Rigan region using by Spectral decay method. The
following conclusions are reached:
1. The average Q
S
values and their frequency dependent relationships show that the Rigan
region is highly heterogeneous.
2. The frequency dependent relationships of Q
S
are estimated as
(0.58)
(102) =
S
Q f
and
(0.60)
(96) =
S
Q f
for Longitudinal and Transverse components, respectively.
3. The frequency dependent relationship Q
S
in Rigan region is similar to that for the Avaj
region in Iran, Northeastern Sonora in Mexico, back-arc region of the Hellenic arc, Central
Italy and region of Marche in Italy.
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4. In this study we found the minimum value of , 0.020 sec at Abaragh station and the
maximum value of 0.105 at Jiroft station. The distance dependence relationships of are
( ) 0.0001 0.0577 R k = + and
( ) = 0.0001 R+0.0625 for Transverse and Longitudinal components,
respectively.
5. The S-waves attenuate more at short distances (r<90 km) because tends to increase in this
distance range. This result is in agreement with a previous study [17] that reports lower
values of Q in the upper crust compared with Q in the lower crust.

REFERENCES:
1. Sato, H., and Fehler M.C. (1998). "Seismic Wave Propagation and Scattering in the Heterogeneous
Earth", Springer Verlag, New York.
2. Anderson J.G. and Hough S.E., (1984)."A model for the shape of the Fourier amplitude spectrum of
acceleration at high frequencies", Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 74, 1969-1993.
3. Niazi M. and Basford J.R. (1968). "Seismicity of Iranian plateau and Hindukush region", Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am., 58, 417426.
4. Nowroozi A.A. (1976). "Seismotectonic provinces of Iran", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 66, 12491276.
5. Berberian M. (1976). "Contribution to the seismtectonics of Iran (Part II)", Geological Survey of Iran,
Report No., 39.
6. Mirzaei N.M., Gao and Y.T. Chen (1998). "Seismic source regionalization for seismic zoning of Iran:
major seismotectonic provinces", Earthq. Predict. Res., 7, 465495.
7. Walker R., Jackson J. and Baker C. (2003). "Surface expression of thrust faulting in eastern Iran: source
parameters and surface deformation of the 1978 Tabas and 1968 Ferdows earthquake sequences",
Geophys. J. Int., 152, 749765.
8. Mahood, M. and Hamzehloo H. (2009). "Estimation of Coda wave attenuation in east central Iran", J
Seismol, 13, 125-139.
9. Anderson J.G., and Quaas R. (1988), "The Mexico earthquake of September 19, 1985 Effect of
magnitude on the character of strong ground motion: An example from the Guerrero, Mexico strong
motion network", Earthquake Spectra, 4, 635-646.
10. Castro R.R., Anderson J.G. and Singh S.K. (1990), "Site response, attenuation and source spectra of S
waves along the Guerrero, Mexico subduction zone", Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 79, 1481-1503.
11. Castro R.R., Monachesi G., Mucciareli M., Trojani L. and Pacor F. (1999), "P- and S-wave attenuation
in the region of Marche, Italy", Tectonophysics 302, 123- 132.
12. Castro R.R., Monachesi G., Trojani L., Mucciareli M. and Frapiccini M. (2002), "An attenuation study
using earthquakes from the 1997 UmbriaMarche sequence", J. Seismol. 6, 43-59.
13. Kinoshita S., (1994), "Frequency-dependent attenuation of shear waves in the crust of the southern
Kanto area, Japan", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 13871396.
14. Castro, R.R., Condori C., Romero O., Jacques C. and Suter M. (2008), "Seismic Attenuation in
Northeastern Sonora, Mexico", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 98, 722732.
15. Polatidis, A., Kiratzi A., Hatzidimitriou P. and Margaris B. (2003). "Attenuation of shear-waves in the
back-arc region of the Hellenic arc for frequencies from 0.6 to 16 Hz", Tectonophysics, 367, 2940.
16. Kamalian, N., Hamzehloo H. and Ghasemi H. (2007), "S-Wave attenuation and spectral decay
parameter for the Avaj region, Iran", Iranian Journal of Science & Technology, 31, No. A1.
17. Castro, R.R., Huerta C.I., Romero O., Jacques C., Hurtado A., and Fernandez A.I. (2009). "Body-wave
attenuation near the rupture of the 1887 Sonora, Mexico, earthquake (Mw 7.5)", Geofs. Int., 48, 297
304.



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EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING BY GRAVITY VARIATIONS
PRECURSORS RECORDED AT ATROPATENA SYSTEM
Nabeel Ahmad, M. Awais, M. Shahid Riaz, M. I rfan and M. Qaisar
Center for Earthquake Studies, NCP, Quaid-e-Azam University Campus Islamabad
nabeeljalib@gmail.com, emawais@gmail.com, shahid09@gmail.com,
geoirfanahmad@gmail.com, mqaisar49@gmail.com

The study of gravity anomalies in the perspective direction of short-term forecasting of
earthquakes is the most important aspect of researches in the field of geodynamics. Recently,
significant anomalies were observed not only near the epicenter, but also in the region very far
from the epicenter before the occurrence of strong earthquake. Such anomalies in the epicenter
region are known as source precursor and those far away from the epicenter as field precursors
(Ma Zongjin, 1980). Such precursors have been noticed by different seismologists, ranging from
behavioral changes in animals to changes in Lithosphere Atmosphere and Ionosphere. One of these
types of earthquake precursor is due to changes in gravitational field and this is noticed as field
precursor (Walsh and Rice, 1979). The variations in gravitational field may be stipulated by a
number of geophysical and tectonic reasons (V.Khain and E.Khalilov, 2006 and E.Khalilov, 2007).
These are i) Stress conditions of the earthquake preparation zone when approached to the critical
level, it causes either squeezing/compaction of the rocks or stretching resulting decreases of their
density. ii) The critical stresses in earthquake preparation zone causes active movements of fluids
in the layers of the Earth and as a result either it increases or decreases the level of subsoil waters
that has been observed in the shafts and bores before the occurrence of earthquakes. iii) When the
stresses approach to a critical size, it results in mass cracking of rocks in earthquake preparation
zone, which eventually causes breaking of rocks iv) High and low density area appears due to
deformational processes arising in the central earthquake preparation zone before the occurrence of
strong earthquake.
Probably, there are also other factors involved in changes of gravity, but all of them do not
have large radius of range regarding earthquake preparation zone of strong earthquake. It is due to
fact that this effect of changes of gravity, connected directly with the geodynamical processes in
earthquake preparation zone, is observed in the radius from tens to thousands of kilometers from
station of registration. The system ATROPATENA, designed to monitor such type of variations of
gravity, one of such system is installed at Islamabad, Pakistan. The Global Network for Forecasting
of Earthquakes (GNFE) includes its ATROPATENA stations in Baku, Azerbaijan, Yogyakarta,
Indonesia and Istanbul, Turkey and number of other stations are yet to be installed on different
parts of the globe. Current study is based on the analysis of one and half year (January 2010 to June
2011) anomalies registered at ATROPATENA Network and presented success of earthquakes
forecast.

ATROPATENA SYSTEM
The ATROPATENA system (Fig. 1) consists of two Torsion detectors to register variations
in gravitational field in two horizontal directions NS and EW and a gravimeter to detect the
variation in vertical component of gravitational field. Two sets of small masses are attached at the
end of two bars of low density material. These small masses and one vertical gravimeter are placed
in a jar. The system of detectors is completely isolated, due to its highly sensitiveness, from the
environment by means of vacuum and registered very weak displacements of sensitive elements of
the system. The system is set in equilibrium by two heavy masses placed outside the jar, to
eliminate the effect of any small changes in gravitational field, not related to any geodynamic
phenomenon. As a whole the system ATROPATENA registers the variations of gravitation field in
three perpendicular directions X, Y, Z.
Recording these variations is done by using laser beams and optical matrix. There are small
mirrors attached to each bar and gravimeter. The displacement of the bars is noted by using laser
beams directed on these small mirrors. The laser beams reflected from mirrors to the optical
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matrixes. Then these changes in positions are recorded by the sensitive cameras attached on back of
optical matrixes. The analogue signals are then converted to digital form by software Power Graph
is transferred to the computer for recording.

Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of ATROPATENA

DATA RECORDING AND UPLOADING TO SERVER
These gravity variations signal generated before the occurrence of strong earthquakes are
recorded at GNFE Network by seismic software after every 1-2 seconds. The recorded signals are
then stored in Microsoft SQL server locally. After every ten minutes, the recorded data from the
network is being uploaded to database server through TCP after automatic formatting as shown in
Fig.2. The data is now available to download by using web site (www.gnfedata.org) and ready to
analyze.
DATA ACQUISITION AND ANALYSIS
The acquisition of data is achieved by using the web site already mentioned above and detail
description of how the data is uploaded from the GNFE Network. This data from January 2010 to
June 2011 from ATROPATENA systems installed at Islamabad, Pakistan, Baku, Azerbaijan,
Yogyakarta, Indonesia and Istanbul, Turkey were analyzed by using Power-graph software. The
unusual Low-frequency changes in the gravitational field registered at the system were observed
before the occurrence of strong earthquakes. This phenomenon was observed when the epicenters
are at large distances (in the radius from one thousand to tens of thousands km) but we have taken
the radius ~ 8500 Km in order to ensure precise location from the registering station. There were
some peculiarities during registration of signals, which allow the increase of accuracy of the
forecast.
The statistic of results shows that the gravitational signals were registered in 90% of cases,
on the average 7-15 days before the occurrence of strong earthquakes. It is also observed vibration
of the record relatively high-frequency oscillations of gravimeter readings which is stopped right
away after the earthquake. However, in some cases before the occurrence of distant strong
earthquakes, the changes of anomalies of gravity have more complicated character.
The anomalous signal registered on the ATROPATENA Network was analyzed on biannual
basis starting from January-June 2010. The forecasts of earthquakes were made on the basis of
arrival times that indicate the region of pending earthquakes. A total of 54 anomalies were recorded
at the above said stations. 28 out of 56 were forecasted and successful forecasts were 22 on the
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basis of strong precursor gravity variations. Only six forecasts were unsuccessful. The statistical
results of six months data reveal that the forecasts were successful about 77%.


Fig. 2. Network of System ATROPATENA
Similarly, pre-earthquake signals observed on ATROPATENA stations during next six
months period from July to December 2010 were analyzed. Arrival times of anomalies on these
systems indicate the region of pending earthquakes. A total of 104 anomalies were recorded during
the period and out of these 84 were forecasted. 63 out of 84 were successful forecasts were 63 and
21 forecasts were unsuccessful. The statistical results of six months data reveal that the forecasts
were successful about 78%.
Table 1.
Showing Summary of Six months Earthquake Forecasts (Jan 2010-June 2011)
Months
Recorded
Anomalies
Weak
Anomalies
Forecasted
Anomalies
Successful
Forecasts
False
Alarms
Percentage
of Success
Jan-June10 54 26 28 22 06 77 %
Jul-Dec10 104 20 84 63 21 78%
Jan-June11 66 33 33 26 07 75%
Jan,10
June,11
224 79 145 111 34 76.6%


The Last six months January to June 2011 data was analyzed. A total of 66 anomalies were
recorded and out of these 33 were forecasted. Out of 33 the successful forecasts were 26 and seven
forecasts were unsuccessful. The statistical results of last six months data reveal that the forecasts
were successful about 75%.
The summary of analyzed data is shown in Table-1 and bar graph is shown in Fig.3. The
result shows overall success ratios as 76.6% during period Januray-2010 to June 2011 which is
good success ratio for the successful forecasting of earthquakes. However if we take into account
the record from United State Geological Survey (USGS) there are large number of events as
compared to anomalies registered at ATROPATENA in the study area. In fact this is due to less
number of stations of GNFE network.

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Fig. 3. Graph Showing Summary of Six Months Earthquake Forecast (J an 2010-J une 2011)

Conclusions
The results of one and half year (Jan-2010 to June-2011) data show that anomalous signals
recorded at ATROPATENA systems behave as precursors before the occurrence of major
earthquakes. The data was analyzed and earthquakes were forecasted for different regions on the
basis of arrival time of anomalies recorded on different stations. The forecasted earthquakes
occurred in Indonesia, Japan, China, Taiwan, Central Europe, Iran, Pakistan and Hindu-Kush
region of Afghanistan. The result indicates over all success ratios as 76.6% which is a good
achievement for successful forecasting of earthquakes. However there is still need to supplement
other geophysical data. The precise and successful forecast will be increased if more
ATROPATENA stations throughout the globe are installed. The successful forecasting of
earthquakes will help to save thousands of lives and properties from the natural disasters.

Acknowledgment
The authors are thankful to Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad N.I. H.I. S.I, for his constant encouragement
and patronization of the project. The authors are also grateful to the Dr. M. Ahsan Mubarak S.I. for
his guidance in preparation of this work.

REFERENCES:
1. Khain V.Y. and Khalilov E.N. (2006). Tideless variations of gravity before strong distant earthquakes.
Science without Borders Volume 2 2006/2006 ICSD/IAS H&E, Innsbruck, pp. 319-339
2. Khalilov E.N. (2007). About the possibility of creation of International Global System of forecasting of
earthquakes ATROPATENA (Baku-Yogyakarta-Islamabad). Natural cataclysms and global problems
of the modern civilization. Special edition of Transaction of the International Academy of Sciences. H&E
ICSD/IAS, Innsbruck, pp. 51-69.
3. Khalilov E.N. The earth is universal detector of gravitational waves. Proceedings of International
Symposium: Cyclicity and cosmological Problems, 2-4 may 2003, Pirgulu, Y. Mamedaliyev settlement,
pp.10-30.
4. Khalilov E.N. About possible influence of super long gravitational waves on duration of terrestrial day.
Proceedings of International Symposium.
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5. Khalilov E.N. About possible influence of gravitational waves on deformation and of the Earth seismicity.
Circular letter of Shemakha Astrophysical Observatory No.105, 2003, p.13
6. Dikke R. Influence of variable in time of gravity interaction on solar system. In Book Gravity and
relativity. M. Mir, 1965, p.251-294.
7. Braginskiy V.B., Ginzburg V.L. About possibility of measurement of dependence Gravitational constant
on time. DAN USSR, vol. 216, 2, 1974 pp.300-302
8. Izmaylov V.P., Karagioz O.V., Parokhomov A.G. Researches of variations of results of measurements of
gravitational constant. Physical Idea of Russia No.1 -2 1999, p.20-26.
9. Lyakhovets V.D. Problems of metrological provision of measurements of gravitational constant. Problems
of modern physics, Alma-Ata, Gylim, 1995, 136 p.
10. Dobrovolskiy I.L. Gravitational precursors of tectonic earthquake. Physics of the Earth, 2005, N 4, pp. 23-
28.
11. Levin B.V. Is the Earth core the conductor of seismic activity? The Earth and the Universe. 2001, N 3, pp.
12-19.
12. Mikhaylov V.O., Tikhotskiy S.A., Diaman M., Pane I. Researching of the Possibility of finding out and
studying of variations of gravity of geodynamic origin on modern satellite gravimetric data. Physics of
the Earth. 2005. N3, pp. 18-32.

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION WORLD-WIDE TASK

P. Kalenda, L. Neumann
Seismologist, Institute of Rock and Structure Mechanics,
Crech Academy of Science, Czech Republic

Introduction
Prediction of earthquakes the Holy Grail of seismology and its most important task
seems to be an unattained task of generations of seismologists. Although there are a lot of scientific
methods (many of them are mentioned in the paper Neumann & Kalenda 2010) none of them can
be used as a standard for routine earthquake prediction.
New methods and/or improvements of old ones have been put into operation in the past few
years. So, many prediction groups exist at the same time all around the world, but many of them try
to predict only local earthquakes, although for example precursors of the event on Boxing Day
2004 on Sumatra (M=9.1 (NEIC 2010)) were observed everywhere on the globe (Nuannin et al.
2005, Rder et al. 2005, Zakharenkova et al. 2006, Zhao et al. 2006, Sobolev & Lybushin 2007,
Wei & Chen 2009, Qian et al. 2009, Liu et al. 2010).
Methods currently used for EQ prediction
Now (2010) only a few methods of the wide spectrum of possible ones are used in the active
EQ prediction.
Local methods with a limited impact and therefore observable in only a small area of focus
of an earthquake include electromagnetic methods, radon gas methods, earthquake clouds, and
thermal anomalies (IR). As these methods are observable in only a limited area, they can help with
localisation of an imminent earthquake. The first method is used in Greece in the VAN variant
(Varotsos & Alexopoulous 1984a, 1984b, Varotsos et al. 1987, VAN 1996, Eftaxias, et al. 2003,
Varostos et al. 2007, Thanassoulas 2007, Sarlis et al. 2008). A particularly intensive research is
carried out on the western coast of N. America by the QakeFinder group (Cutler et al. 2007,
QuakeFinder 2010) or in Japan (Hayakawa 1999, Hayakawa et al. 2009, Uyeda et al. 2009).
A volunteer G.Giuliani (2004) was measuring the radon gas in LAquilla, Italy.
Earthquake clouds are sometimes observable before strong shallow earthquakes (Uda &
Maeda 2006, Gup & Xie 2007, Guo & Wang 2008, Irrational Geographic 2009).
Big expectations are coming with remote satellite observations (Tronin 2010) of ground
deformations measured by SAR or InSAR interferometers (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)
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(Kuzuoka & Mizuno 2004, Chini et al. 2008), surface temperature (IR anomalies) (Saraf & Choudhury
2003, Ozounov et al. 2006, Pulinets et al. 2006, Saraf et al. 2008, Wu & Liu 2009, Wei et al. 2009),
ionosphere disturbances (Molchanov et al. 2006, Parrot et al. 2006) and gas emission (Okada et al.
2004).
Global methods comprise all methods, which indirectly or directly measure the stress in
rock mass, because so called stress waves or tectonic waves, which originate in the focus area
of the future earthquake, have a small attenuation and are detectable everywhere on the globe
(Kalenda et al. 2010). Li et al. (2003), Shi et al. (2009) or Crampin & Gao (2009) showed that
earthquake can be predicted, but it is necessary to measure the stress in the rock mass and to make
numerical models.
Direct or indirect stress measurement methods include hydrofracturing (Amadei &
Stephansson 1997), borehole stress/strain meters (Johnston et al. 1987, Hart et al. 1996, Liu et al.
2008, Sun et al. 2008, Li 2010, Ouyang 2010), strainmeters or laser deformometers (Agnew 1986,
Zrn 2001), stressometers (Huang X.N. et al. 2010), water level measurement (Huang, F.Q et al.
2010), tilt measurement (Braitenberg 1999, Braitenberg et al. 2006, Ouyang 2010), measurement of
movement of active faults by spatial dilatometer (Stemberk et al. 2010), measurement of splitting
of S-waves (Crampin et al. 2008, Crampin & Gao 2009), microseismicity measurement
(Gorbatikov et al. 2004, Li, Y. et al. 2010), measurement of gravity (Chambat & Valette 2008,
Khalilov 2009), and measurement of rock-mass resistivity (Qian et al. 2009).
Other methods without clear physical background, which determine the measured
anomalies preceding the earthquakes, are used too. The MDCB method (Wang et al. 2002, 2003) or
earthquake resonance measurements (Wei 2007) are some of them.


Prediction groups in the world


Although governments and official seismologists (mainstream) say that earthquakes are
unpredictable (Geller 1997, Geller et al. 1997), many groups and individuals work on this topic on
all continents. Even well known scientists show that we can estimate the time of main shock by
direct of indirect measurement of stress (Crampin et al. 2008a, 2008b, Gao & Crampin 2008,
Crampin 2009 Crampin & Gao 2009, Shi et al. 2009, Hayakawa et al. 2009, Freund et al. 2006).
The first groups of predictors or geophysicists used first of all local methods, which can
determine all the necessary parameters time, localisation and magnitude.
The QuakeFinder group on the western coast of the USA in California uses the EM method
to detect the anomalous noise before earthquakes, mainly on the San Andreas fault (Bleier et al.
2009). This group cooperates with F.Freund, who makes the analyses on the rock samples in the
laboratory (Freund et al. 2006).
An amateur in geophysics but a professional scientist E. Glass makes his worldwide
predictions on the basis of EM pulses, detected as ear tones, which correlate with tidal influence
on the triggering of the earthquakes (EDG 2010).
The most active in Europe and especially in Greece was the VAN group, which was led by
Varotsos Alexopoulo Nomicos, until the 90s of the last century (Varotsos et al. 1984a, 1984b,
1987, 2007). After R. Gellers criticism of their work (Geller 1996) they have not attempted to
predict earthquakes officially and they have studied only the physics of the possible connection
between earthquakes and electromagnetic emission (Sarlis et al. 2008).
An amateur in geophysics but a scientific technician G. Giuliani (2004) predicted the
LAquila earthquake on April 6, 2009 with his own radon meters, which were distributed in the
epicentral area. But the scientific authorities including Enzo Boschi, the chairman of Italys
National Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology, dismissed Giulianis predictions: Every time
there is an earthquake there are people who claim to have predicted it, he said. As far as I know,
nobody predicted this earthquake with precision. It is not possible to predict earthquakes.
In Central Europe there are two groups of scientists that measure the rock mass
deformations. One group around Kok and Stemberk (IRSM AS) measures long-time sequences
of movement and rotation on active faults (Stemberk et al. 2003, Stemberk and Kok 2007).
They found that the tectonic frame is coherent in the whole Central Europe (Stemberk et al. 2010)
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and the periods of higher stress than average, accompanied by lateral movement of blocks, are
alternated by periods of lower stress than average, accompanied by vertical movement of blocks
(Briestensk et al. 2007, Kok et al. 2007).
The second group around Kalenda (IRSM AS) and Neumann measures the micro deformations
in abandoned mines or caves by vertical static pendulums (Neumann 2007, Neumann and Kalenda
2010). They found the so called stress waves or tectonic waves with periods of days and weeks,
which precede the strongest earthquakes (Kalenda et al. 2009, Kalenda and Neumann 2010)
(see Fig 1).


Fig. 1. The tilt and noise of pendulum in I da mine, Czech Republic in 2010

One very active group of predictors is working in Baku around prof. Khalilov (2009), who
made a completely new apparatus differential rotational gravimeter Atropatena (Khain and
Khalilov 2008). Such a gravimeter is able to measure changes of gravity field, which are connected
with the changes of rock mass density and with the pressure in the crust too. The results show that
so called tectonic waves in the massif are detectable and it is possible to localize the epicentral
area with the help of the network of such apparatuses.
On the Indian peninsula there are people, who use various methods for earthquake
predictions. One of them is Mr. Shan R. Shanmugasundaram, who tries to predict earthquakes
based on the Earth surface deformation, measured with the help of sunshine. But nothing is known
about the physics in the background of the observations.
The group of A.K. Saraf is observing local IR anomalies that precede the earthquakes (Saraf
& Choudhury 2003, Saraf et al. 2008, Saraf et al. 2009).
In China there are many groups of scientific or amateur predictors. The most powerful group
was established by prof. Li Jun-zhi at the University of Technology, Beijing in October 1976,
immediately after the Thangshan earthquake. This group is using a multicomponent observation
and they make earthquake prediction based on the fingerprint recognition technique (Li et al.
2003). The direction to the epicentral area is measured by crustal stress. The anomalous period is
recognized by infrasound and the time of the imminent earthquake is determined by animal
behavior (budgerigar). They use other methods like inclination, geomagnetic activity by 3-needle
geomagnetic device, gravity, atmospheric pressure and ground temperature.
The Earthquake Research Team of the Dianye Middle School was established in 1995 by the
North China Power (Group) Corporation. Liu Gen-shen, the head of the Earthquake Research
Center has given more than 600 predictions per year, especially in the area of China and adjacent
areas, based on measurement of a telluric current, abnormal behaviour of animals, earthquake
clouds observed from ground level and fingerprint recognition technique. Sun Wei, who cooperates
with this Research Center, installed his crustal stress monitoring system in Aug. 2003, and later
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also installed the inclination instrument, 3-direction geomagnetic instrument, and the resonance
instrument (Sun & Okubo 1998, Sun 2007, Sun & Sun 2008). In 2005 Liu discovered the
characteristics of the set of precursors corresponding to an EQ occurring in a specific location have
similarities, and began to use this phenomenon to predict the location of EQs corresponding to
same characteristics of the set of precursors.
In China there are other institutions, which make earthquake predictions, such as the Institute
of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration (Huang, X.N. et al. 2010 piezomagnetic
stressometer), the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (Qian et al. 2009
electro-resistivity of rock mass), China Coal Research Institute (Wang et al. 2002, 2003 - MDCB).
Especially the last one is very active and makes predictions for the Chinese mainland and adjacent
areas every week (see Fig. 2).



Fig. 2 Week predictions of Dr. Wang and MDCB group and comparison with EMSC (2010) bulletin
The other very active predictor is Dr. Z. Shou (2010), who predicts the epicentre areas on the
basis of earthquake clouds, which were theoretically solved by F. Freund et al. (2009).
S. Uda (Japan) uses the same prediction techniques as Z. Shou, using pictures, which are
made by remote meteo-satelites (Uda & Maeda 2006). He is able to estimate the magnitude of a
future earthquake on the basis of the length of the EQ cloud.
Y.Sue (2009) calculates the probability of occurrence of earthquakes on the basis of their
connection with tides.

One centre world-wide network: Proposal of Prediction centre
If we want to predict earthquakes correctly then all these methods must be connected to one
centre, because some of the above mentioned methods are particularly significant and are able to
detect precursors of the strongest events (M>8) everywhere on the Earth (Crampin 2010 talk at the
ISRM conference in Beijing (not in Proceedings)), but they are not able to localise such strongest
events with the adequate accuracy. Such global methods are mainly based on the indirect
measurement of stress in the rock mass or stress variations, because the stress waves have small
attenuations, as their wavelength is larger than circumference of the Earth (Kalenda et al. 2010).
Therefore, the time or period of an incoming earthquake must be estimated or assessed on the basis
of global methods with the help of the asperity model (Wyss et al. 1981, Wei 2007, Wei & Chen
2009). Therefore only the strongest earthquakes would be predicted.
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On the other hand, the local methods cannot distinguish the local phenomena from the global
ones. Therefore, many big anomalies are visible in only a small area of the future small or
moderate earthquakes and they cover both smaller and larger anomalies from more distant but
strong events.
Data of the global methods should be pre-processed in their own centre and only the
information about an incoming strong earthquake would be sent to the world centre together with
the additional information (magnitude range, direction of stress wave, amplitude vs tectonics, time
of beginning of anomaly, etc.).
The accurate epicentral area must be recognised on the basis of local methods in the time
window, which was evaluated by the global methods. The cross-correlation of many local methods
is necessary. As there are many places in the critical state on the globe, more than one epicentral
area could be recognised. It only depends on the stress state and the velocity of accumulation of the
energy, which of them will be destructed first. The stress state will then be redistributed and the
stress in some areas of the critical state will drop and/or in others will rise much closer to the
strength limit.
The models, used in the prediction centre, make it possible to estimate the areas, in which the
stress will increase and the areas with the stress drop. Models must be based on all of the forces,
which move the lithosphere plates, including triggering forces like tides, solar irradiance,
hurricanes, precipitation, IR anomalies, etc.

Prediction evaluation and result validation
Since the periods of stress waves are days up to weeks long and depend on the volume of
asperity (and therefore on the magnitude of the earthquake) (see Fig. 3) it is necessary to make the
prediction of earthquakes every day if we want to predict the strongest earthquakes with the
magnitude greater than 6. For M7 earthquakes it would be necessary to make the prediction at least
once per 3 days and for M8 earthquakes once per week.
In the first step, the data of global methods must be evaluated and interpreted. If the stress
anomaly appears, the magnitude and possible localization must be estimated.
In the second step, the local methods must be used to scan the whole globe to recognise
possible local anomalies precursors.
In the third step, the results of all the methods must be put together to model the stress state on
the Earths surface and to estimate the areas in the critical state and their volume. The magnitude of
the future mainshock of all possible areas could be evaluated (depending on time).


Fig. 3 Dependence of the nucleation period on magnitude

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162

In the fourth step, the prediction is made for all of possible areas of the mainshock.
In the fifth step, the imminent precursors are hunted in the predicted areas (foreshocks, IR
anomalies, radon gas anomalies, animal behaviour, EQ clouds, ).
In the sixth step, the alarm is sent to the officials.
In the seventh step, the redistribution of stress is calculated after the mainshock and new
possible areas of aftershocks are evaluated.
In the eighth step, the new prediction is made.
This scheme of data processing must be processed at least once a day and every time after the
mainshock (since the step 7), because the stress changes every time.
Each prediction must contain the information about the time window; the predicted area and
the magnitude range (should be unlimited from the upper side). Then the probability of each
prediction could be made. The predicted area could be the whole Earth if the precise epicentral area
cannot be evaluated or recognised.
After the end of the predicted time window or after the predicted mainshock, the accuracy of
prediction must be evaluated and the statistical test must be made. Such results should be open for
the scientific community.
All the predictions and primary data, which were used for this prediction, and results would be
archived for the next generations.

Conclusion

The main scientific task Are earthquakes predictable? has already been solved (F.Xie ed.
2010). Many methods show that there are precursors before main shocks. On the basis of the
indirect stress measurement, it is possible to estimate the stress-state of the rock mass and therefore
to forecast the earthquake (Crampin & Gao 2009). On the basis of the asperity model (Sun 2007)
and continuous stress measurement (Kalenda & Neumann 2010), it is possible to recognise the
asperity, which is approaching the failure, and to predict the earthquake.
The world-wide prediction network must be made. This network would consist of sub-
networks of stress-measurement to recognise the time and possible magnitude of an incoming
earthquake and of sub-networks of local methods, which are able to determine the focal area. The
hierarchical approach to the data acquisition, evaluation and interpretation with world-wide use of
local as well as global methods must go hand in hand.
The prediction network must be made hierarchically (according to the methods),
geographically (according to the responsibility of local authorities) and scientifically (statistic tests
of results and verification of the data quality).

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THE FORECAST OF EARTHQUAKES TODAY: CHALLENGES AND ANSWERS

N.V. Koronovsky, A.A. Naimark
Moscow State University (RUSSIA)
e-mail: koronovsky@rambler.ru, fnaim@ya.ru

The statement of the problem of the forecast of strong earthquakes which till now are
unexpected or have been "predicted" a post factum is discussed. Existing strategy and tactics of the
decision of this problem are critically considered; opportunities and restrictions in a view of
understanding seismic process as reflection of action of the general laws of evolution nonlinear far-
from-equilibrium geodynamic systems are analysed. It is shown that there are neither theoretical
nor empirical bases to hope for an opportunity of the forecast of earthquakes with necessary
accuracy and reliability.
Traditionally believe, that for the reliable and accurate forecast it is necessary and
sufficiently to improve methods of research and knowledge of the mechanism of process and a
structure of geomedium. But already for a long time nonlinear systems, which in conditions far
from equilibrium evolve essentially unpredictably, deterministically-chaotically, are known. The
seismogeodynamic systems are those. In a basis of failures of forecasts of earthquakes that:
seismicity is shown in fractal rough-discrete medium; destruction evolves from a microlevel to a
macrolevel; a fracture in any volume of any rank unpredictably reorganizes conditions of
occurrence of the subsequent destructions; process is extremely dependent on the slightest changes
of initial conditions.
Unstable relations of the centers of earthquakes with parameters of geomedium, bifurcations
of seismic process, high-probable evolution of any micro- or mesofracture to a seismogenic
macrofracture, unpredictability of transition seismoactive area to instability with "choice" any one
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of several, vaguely various on a degree of readiness of "candidates" for the centers are important.
Character of process as a whole, its separate stages, the attractor, scenarios of transitions from a
stage up to a stage can be expected. But reliability and accuracy of predictions of concrete events
are far enough from requirements of practice. Even minimally necessary requirements to the
forecast basically are inaccessible. There is insuperable a horizon of predictability, achievable
earlier, than necessary quality of the forecast.
Strategy of forecasting consist in revealing certain precursor-anomaly. But for the reliable
forecast such anomaly should be single and be contrastly individual on an extensive surrounding
background. However, as a rule, in real geomedium some anomalies slightly conceding to most
reliable of them in sizes and intensity are found out.
Detection of last one reduces probability of the miss of dangerous event, but other anomalies
reduce definiteness of the forecast as the main anomaly now is not individual and low-contrast on a
surrounding non-uniform background.
Steadily reliable predictions of a place, time and magnitude of concrete event with a required
accuracy are impossible. The alternative is obvious: certain, but the inadequate forecast of concrete
event on the basis of unrealistic model of geomedium or realistic model of medium with inevitable
uncertainty of the forecast.
Keywords: earthquakes, geomedium, discreteness, fractals, nonlinearity, unpredictability
1 INTRODUCTION
The initially only practical problem of the forecast of earthquakes the last decades has far
exceeded these frameworks. Now it is a part of a question: what (and why) possibly (or not) to
predict (and to restore) in sciences about the Earth, in natural sciences in general. Optimists in this
question those who is convinced of high potential of technology: updatings of empirical methods
and the factual basis. Pessimists accent the past unsuccessful experience, but they do not answer a
question: why the success cannot be reached by experience in the future? Arguments of those who
base on the theory of nonlinear dynamics are more forcible and difficultly refutable: in conditions
far from equilibrium not only the complex, but also the relatively simple systems of an extensive
class, evolve by the special mode: essentially unpredictably, deterministically-chaotically. The
majority if not all natural systems, including seismogeodynamical ones, belong to this class.
Authors of presented article support such point of view. The reasonings supplementing our
previous publications on this theme, are presented below.
2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
The forecasting of an earthquake often still is defined even by professionals as the
specification of: 1) the time, 2) location, and 3) magnitude of a future seismic event. In such
representation it would be possible to consider this problem already solved for any area even
without special researches, besides with the accuracy as great as possible; but reliability of the
forecast it will be close to a zero. A quite reliable forecast, but with infinitesimal accuracy is equal
possible also.
Obviously: a forecasting is meaningful, only if minimal requirements to quality of results are
installed precisely enough. Predictability or unpredictability of earthquakes, reports on the
confirmed forecasts should be considered from such positions. Necessity of achievement of a
proper level of accuracy and reliability is the main problem. Here accuracy is the maximal values
of admissible mistakes on each of 3 parameters, reliability is probability of realization of the
forecast with the nominated accuracy. Naturally: requirements to reliability and accuracy may be
varied for different parameters and purposes of forecasting; increase of accuracy inevitably
conducts (at the reached level of studying)to decreasing of reliability, and on the contrary. It is
important to understand, that at not enough high accuracy of the forecast, for example, places or
magnitude of earthquakes, even the exact prediction of time of event is deprived practical sense.
Let on the diagram of quality of a forecast (Fig. 1): on a horizontal line - reliability (R), on a
vertical line - accuracy (A), a curve 1 - dependence of accuracy upon reliability. If the set values
both of accuracy min and reliability Rmin minimally correspond to requirements for some
concrete purposes, on the diagram the areas of the forecast are allocated: unsatisfactory on
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reliability (I), on accuracy (II), both on reliability and accuracy (III), satisfactory both on reliability
and accuracy (IV). For improvement of quality of the forecast (i.e. for displacement of a curve 1
into the area of IV without decrease in requirements of accuracy and reliability) traditionally
consider necessary to improve methods of registration, processing, interpretation of the received
data and knowledge of the mechanism of process and structure of geomedium which were
considered as extremely complex. As it is assumed, all this will provide, basically, unlimited
improvement of quality of the forecast. But such prospect is ambiguous in a view of researches of
seismic process as reflexions of the general laws of evolution of nonlinear far-from-equilibrium
systems [1]. As Russian geophysicist .V. Nikolaev warned, nonlinear dynamics promises us not
only a lot of discoveries (of openings), but also a lot of closings. What was revealed actually?
It was found out, in particular, that mechanisms of geological processes, on the basis of
knowledge about which we build forecasts, in many cases are not too complex; they, basically, are
cognizable. But in conditions far from equilibrium when geocatastrophes take place, these
mechanisms generate in principle ineradicable randomness, unpredictability of dynamics. It is
possible to expect a certain character of the process as a whole, of its separate stages and attractor,
of scenarios of transitions from a stage to a stage. But reliability and accuracy of predictions of
concrete events are rather far from requirements of practice. Moreover, each next step to the
reliable forecast (Fig. 1, curves 2, 3) is more and more expensive; later its cost appears excessive
high. At last it is found out: even minimally necessary requirements of accuracy and reliability of
the forecast basically are inaccessible. There are horizons of accuracy (H) and reliability (HR) of
the forecast which are insuperable on a principle by any methodical improvements. And border
HA-HR in many cases is reached earlier, than necessary quality of the forecast will be attained.
Opening of such horizon became for naturalists very painful closing. They with the
traditional methods of forecasting on the basis of linear representations about a reality have been
pushed aside in reservation of weak unequilibrium. There forecasting is possible, but there are no
catastrophes, the forecasting of which is the vital necessity.

Fig. 1. Ratios of reliability (R) and accuracy (A) the forecast and its areas of unsatisfactory (I - I I I ) and
satisfactory (I V) quality. The explanation in the text.
I
II
III
IV
1
2
3
4
Amin
Rmin
R
HA
HR
A
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Natural sciences have found oneself before a fundamental challenge, the constructive answer
on which is not formulated yet. There are clear tendencies to not notice a problem, to work within
the bounds of former, linear representations. Observations go on, the facts are collecting, methods
are improving; from time to time there are reports on successes, even about achievement of the
theoretical and methodical decision of a problem. But destructive earthquakes still are unexpected,
"predicted" a post factum, besides unsatisfactory on accuracy.
3 TACTICS AND STRATEGY
Earlier the authors already have shown [2, 3] doubtfulness of hopes for efficiency of such
ways to the accurate and reliable forecast, as physical modelling, researches of temporary
sequences of events, use of geochemical and geodetic anomalies-precursors. The reasons of failures
- impossibility to consider rough discreteness and self-similarity of geomedium, instability of
connections of its parameters with the seismic focuses, befurcateness of seismic process, its
dependence on the slightest changes of initial and current conditions, rather probable evolution of
some small fracture in big seismogenic fault, unpredictability of transition seismoactive area to
instability and "choice" of the most prepared "candidate" for the seismic focuses from several not
very various on a degree of readiness.
Geophysical monitoring reveals anomalous "consolidation" - a coherent behaviour of
geophysical fields in the area of the preparing earthquake. But alongside with the anomalies,
regarded a post factum as precursors, are recorded also other variations, not much smaller or
slightly greater on amplitude, but not anticipating any strong earthquakes. At the same time a lot of
strong earthquakes were not preceded by any obvious attributes.
Now it is clear: what was tactics the forecast, i.e. what factors considered what parameters of
dynamics were traced what methods were used, strategy is aimed at as much as possible distinct
recognition of the certain anomaly-precursor. For the reliable forecast this anomaly should be only
one, contrasting with a surrounding homogeneous background within the limits of enough big
territory. It means abstract continuous, or (in physical models) the quasy-continuous medium with
one isolated stress-overloaded macrovolume (Fig. 2, a).


Fig. 2. Anomalies-precursors of earthquakes (ovals) in models of geomedium: continuous (a),
quasy-continuous (b) with an macroheterogeneity, rough-discrete (c). The explanation in the text.

The same is meant in attempts to reveal potential seismic focuses by physical modelling of
deformations. It is assumed, if the system of macrofaults and regional stress-loading in the model
microgranular medium basically adequately to natural situation, allocations of maxima of intensity
of local pressures near to each large fault will be steadily adequate to it also.
a b c
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However, even if originally real medium could be quasy-continuous, later in conditions of
enough intensive stress-loading, it should inevitably be self-reorganized into the hierarchically-
discrete medium - with a ratios of the linear sizes of elements on adjacent ranks on the average 3,5 :
1 [4]. It at natural great amplitudes of the sizes of concrete blocks in any structural level, should
lead that the greatest anomalies will not be solitary. All this complicates identification of any one
of anomalies as the most probable predecessor of strong earthquake. Besides on a way to
occurrence seismogenic macrofault each of micro - and mezofractures stimulates plural casual
reorganizations of stress-deformed conditions at all subordinated structural levels. This is the
additional reason of unpredictability of allocation, orientations and sizes of vectors of later
dislocations.
In these circumstances careful enough monitoring should reveal alongside with anomaly-
precursor of strong earthquake, a great number of other anomalies-precursors of more or less weak
events, taken place in different times. Macroanomaly-precursor of strong earthquake will be
localized, hence, not within a quasy-homogeneous background. It will arise after (in time) and
among (spatially) of previous (and later - of subsequent) anomalies not of only "microscopic", but
of several mezoscopic ranks.
Hence, in an experimental model even if some large faults correspond with natural ones
both on orientation and on location, their condition (ability to perceive stress-loading, character of
their reaction to that, competition as drains of energy among themselves and with others faults not
very smaller) will be cardinally and unpredictable dependent on the slightest details of the initial
structure and on character of stress-loading. Accordingly, all of disturbances of the modelled
regional stress-field, their connections with allocation of real earthquakes and the potential seismic
focuses will be unpredictably unsteady. Real predictability of the evolution of dynamic systems
strongly dependent on the slightest details of prehistory, is extremely unstable. Therefore
earthquakes happen actucally as unforeseen.
It is expected also at studying, for example, radon exhalations from a massif, penetration of
which decreases at compression, and increases at unloading. A great number of locations with
uncontrastly different of amplitudes of recorded fluctuations of concentration of radon in coarsely-
discrete self-similar structure of geomedium complicate unequivocal identification of the most
reliable anomaly-precursors. The method of geodetic and geophysical monitoring of deformations
on a site of delay of blocks displacements on a large fault assumes a preliminary choice of one of
several such sites. This at small contrast of their differences in coarsely-discrete self-similar
structure of geomedium, in conditions of its self-organized criticality can indicate alternately the
different "candidates" mutually competing during nonmonotonic dynamic and structural
preparation.
4 PHYSICAL MODELLING OF SEISMOGENIC STRUCTURE
A fundamental problem of physical modelling of dislocations,stresses and seismogenic
structure in the Earths crust leads to serious reassessment of previously obtained scientific and
practical results [3]. A structure assignated in experinents simulating the appearance and
development of dislocations does not have the self-organized fractal coarse discreteness of the
natural geomedium, i.e., self-similarity between units, into which it is divided. A fractal structure
initially assigned would produce an extremely unstable modelling result, whose probability of
similarity with one actually occuring among those theoretically possible tends to zero.
The paradigm of the lump structure of a geological medium [5] coupled with the
conceptions of nonlinear dynamics and the fractal geometry of nature stimulates us to revise many
established opinions in theoretical and experimental geodynamics.
Traditionally a fractured structure of a particular region and a real loading orientation were
set in physical models. The obtained pattern of the disturbed regional stress field was correlated
with seismic events in order to forecast seismicity.
A full similarity a local stress field in a model and in a portion of the Earths crust is
impossible. since the model automatically does not reproduce many pecularities of the structure of
the Earths crust portion and systems of faults and stress fields. The mechanical properties of
separate units and values of friction coefficients at different sections of fault zone with vertical
or inclined movements of basement units in the Earths crust, quasy-viscous friction, as well as
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plastic deformation present in blocs (in addition to elastic deformations), development of faults,
etc. were not taken into account.
However, as believed, if the main features of the system of fault and external stress field are
chosen correctly and conform with natural values, then stable and large areas of increase and
decrease of local stress values must also take place in the Earths crust in a particular region; the
same concerns the orientation of the main stresses around large fractures.
At the same time, stably adequate results may be obtained only if the modeled process is not
sensitive to conditions assigned in the model, when small inaccuracies in their assignment and/or
their insignificant variations lead to a proportionally small variation in results.
I.e., modelling is reasonable only for relatively insignificant deviations of the system from a
balanced state, for example, within the limits of elasticity or with small values of plastic
deformation. when we may consider a nonlinear process as linear in some reasonable
approximation. With large plastic or even fracturing deformations, the situation changes
dramatically: in general, extremely unstable behavior, i.e., strong and unpredictable dependence
upon the smallest variations of initial conditions, for example, on reorientation of a stress axis
typical of nonlinear systems, will appear.
The model structure in experiments imitating the appearance and evolution of fracturing
dislocations does not reflect and cannot correctly reflect due to obiective reasons one of the
most important features of the structure of the natural geological environment: its well recognized
natural coarsely discrete fractal structure, which has been thoroughli examined within recent years
[5-21]. This includes in particular, self-similarity of unit subdivision, i.e., a geomedium which is
lumpy in some respects at levels of various scales is constructed in a similar way. Thus, the
condition of similarity to the structure of real rock bodies, which is fundamentally important in
recognized problems, is not fulfilled in modeling.
In real rock bodies, according to numerous field observations and experiments, an
insignificant (3,5:1), on average, ratio between the linear dimensions of units of adjacent ranks has
been observed within a wide range (several orders of magnitude).
The constant appearance in experiments of a step-wise transition from a coarsely discrete
medium to a quasy-uniform one has not been found at any scale (rank) level in real rock bodies, in
general. Respectively, the rare macro anomalies in a stress field of low rank are not clearly outlined
against a quasy-homogeneous background and they are located among numerous anomalies
differing in sizes of, at least, one or two meso-scale ranks. To examine the considered pecularities
the ideas and metods of a fractal set appeared to be useful. V.S. Zakharov [8] recently investigated
the relationships between the fractal dimension of a fault network and the seismicity distribution
over a vast territory from the Alps to Kamchatka and the Kuriles. obtained quantitative
characteristics of self-similarity between a seismic process and fault formation within a range of
two-three orders of magnitude of spatial scales.
The conception of self-organized criticality [17] accents two important aspects. First, the
naturality of self-similarity, i.e., it is not introduced from outside due to artificial cutting, as in
experiments, but its spontaneous appearance due to pecularities of internal relationships of
dissipative system of lithosphere.
Second, self-organization implies not a momentary, or single-act event but a particular
process, i.e., stages of forming a self-similar structure in some macro volume of the medium at any
rank from micro levels to mesoscopic and macro levels. Hence, taking the discrete and bifurcating
nature of fracturing into account results, in conclusions on the nonlinear nature and extreme
dependece of the process upon initial conditions and on the fundamental impossibility of the
model reproducing a real secvence and pecularities of some particular acts of fault formation
(location, orientation and displacemtnt amplitude) with any method of loading.
If the results of modelling linear processes, during increase in adequacy of initial structure,
becomes steadier, in case of nonlinearity the picture appears opposite: choosing in model of more
adequate initial structure leads to less steady result, and the chance it will be similar to some actual
result among other theoretically possible results, tends to zero.
In a real experiment, it is impossible to assign a quite adecquate structure. This is
technically unrealizable: the ability to divide small models into units of various ranks is limited.
This is impossible, simply in principle. The structure is not placed into a real natural body from
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outside. It develops there becous by natural, i.e., by multicyclic, nonlinear, and unpredictable
process of deformation and destruction and with repeated reorientations of stress axes at every
structural level. This proctss and structure formed at any stage also cannot be reconstructed in
principle.
This shows that even if the largest model faults in general correspond to natural ones in
orientation and relative location, their state will be extremely and unpredictably variable
depending on the smallest details in any previous evolution. The components of such a variable
state are the strikes and dips of particular segments of a fault plane and their junctions with each
other and with fractures that are joined or crossing them. This is associated with the ability of
large fractures to bear loads of a comparable scale, the nature of their responce to its influence the
conditions of their competition as sources of energy release between each other, and with fractures
of a higher rank that are moderately different in size. Accordingly, the patterns of a disturbed
regional stress field, the location and configuration of its anomalies, their ratios with the
distribution of earthquakes that have occured, and the location of the forecasted potential seismic
sources will be unpredictably variable.
Even if an adequate coarsely discrete fractal structure were possible to assign in the model,
the result of the experiment would be extremely unstable and inadequate, in this case, regardless
of how accurately, relative to natural faults , we managed to reconstruct the initial configuration
and orientations of large model discontinuities in the experiment.
Any statements sometimes represented about the nature of geological deformations which
are not casual and not chaotic, but, on the contrary, as if are rather regular and ordered, without
taking into account nonlinearity of deformation, contradict the basic consequences of the concept
of discretely structured geoenvironment. The main point of this contradiction was revealed in a
paper where a probable scenario for the appearance of a turbulent spatiotemporal structure,
which nontrivially, i. e., in one volume, simultaneously, but at different scale levels that combine
the features of both a regular and chaotic and unpredictable nature was presented [22]. The noted
scenario in turn illustrates the widely known fundamental conclusions that the same system
depending on the conditions used may show either predictable or chaotic behaviour; both these
types of behaviour are realbzed, not only separately, but together as well. Disorder in a partucular
range perfectly coincides with order in some other range [23, 24]. Thus, an unambigous contrast
between chaos and order does not correspond to modern ideas on the complex behaviour of
nonlinear systems, including self-organized critical geomedium.
5 OPPORTUNITIES AND RESTRICTIONS
Thus, achievement of demanded quality of forecasts is complicated by the following:
seismicity take place in the rough-discrete fractal geomedium; destruction evolves from a
microlevel to a macrolevel; the split of any volume of any rank reorganizes conditions of
occurrence of the subsequent displacements unpredictably; process is extremely dependent on the
slightest changes of initial conditions. So, in experiment the modelled structure of medium cannot
be similar real in all details. But just they are playing a main role for appearance of instability and
inadequacy of experimental results because of extreme dependence of behaviour of nonlinear
system on the initial conditions set always to some finite accuracy.
In the forecast of earthquake two problems should be solved, but the decision of one of them
in the certain sense will "resist" the decision of another. It is necessary: 1) to avoid a false alarm
when the predicted strong earthquake does not happen or it is weak. The problem may be solved by
discovering of anomaly-precursor with greatest "a margin of reliability": there is only one anomaly
contrasting to homogeneous, rather safe background; 2) do not miss strong earthquakes,
opportunity of which can be specified by anomalies-precursors with the parameters a little "not
matured" up to the most reliable ones and therefore not shown together with them. It is necessary
to display the detailed structure of the background which actually, certainly, is non-homogeneous
and consists of anomalies of different sizes and intensity. I.e., it is necessary to have a margin of
a number of anomalies, each of which though is not the most reliable, but, depending on
difficultly knowable factors, may be precursor of strong earthquakes also.
Thus are thinkable two types of situations. In the first of them (Fig. 2, b) a great number of
anomalies though unequal in the sizes and intensity, but significantly more weak on such attributes
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than the most reliable anomaly-precursor can be discovered. This justifies their inclusion in a safe
background. Hence the place of forthcoming strong earthquake is predicted quite definitely. In the
other situation (Fig. 2, c) some anomalies, slightly conceding in the sizes and intensity to the most
reliable can be discovered. Obviously: the probability of omission of dangerous event is
decreasing, but definiteness of its forecast is decreasing also as anomaly-precursor now is not one,
and the surrounding background is heterogeneous. In view of bifurcate character of process of
preparation, of its extreme dependence on the slightest changes of conditions and conformably of
spatial-temporary variability of an recorded picture, definition of a place, force and time of
forthcoming earthquake is unreal.
Of two assumed situations the second is real. It conforms to widely accepted model of
rough-discrete fractal geomedium and to representations about the deterministic-chaotic character
of its self-structurization in conditions far from equilibrium. Thus predictions of a place, time and
force of concrete events with a required accuracy and reliability are impossible. The first situation
where only one anomaly-precursor is shown on a homogeneous background, i.e. quasy-
homogeneous real medium, inside which only one macrofault, is unreal: preparation for this by all
means includes reorganization of the initial structure, occurrence a lot of icro- and mezofaults.
Thus, the alternative is clear: the certain, but inadequate forecast of concrete event on the
basis of unrealistic model of geomedium; or the realistic model of geomedium with inevitable
uncertainty of the forecast.
In connection with told we will consider an example of strategically traditional, but tactically
new approach to forecasting earthquakes [25]. Its author admits nonlinearity, randomness of
seismic process, instability of changes of the geomedium near the maturing seismic focuses and, as
consequence, low informativity of local precursors. Hopes are set on others, high-informative
(reliability about 90 %) long-range precursors. They reflect reaction of geomedium on passage of
low-velocity long-periodic tectonic waves out of the maturing seismic focuses of the strong
earthquakes distant from seismic stations on 10 000 km and more. Origin of waves is explained by
reorganizations of the stress-deformed condition of lithosphere and by viscoelastic reaction of
astenospere. All this is expressed by seismo-gravitational anomalies, not tidal variations of a
gravity, of changes of a hydrogeochemical regime, of a level of underground waters, etc. During
movement of a longitudinal tectonic wave the increases and reductions of mass under stations
cause sign-variable changes of a gravitations accelerations. Movement of a cross tectonic wave
causes alternate increase and reduction of mass on the one and the other sides from stations where
sign-variable changes of a gravitational field in two mutually perpendicular horizontal directions
are fixed. All this explains the precursors of gravitational character, modulations of a microseismic
background, change of geochemical characteristics, of a level of underground waters, electric and
magnetic properties of rocks. Their connection with the concrete focuses is declared a post factum
after earthquakes in the one or the other distant area. How much hopes on this are justified?
It is logical to believe, that sources of tectonic waves as precursors though with not very
smaller intensity and long-range, are the potential seismic focuses not only of strong earthquakes,
but also of forshocks. They themselves have some more weak forshocks with the focuses and
tectonic waves starting out of them. All this corresponds to representations about fundamental self-
similarity of structure and about automodel evolution of geomedium. The other its fundamental
feature - rough discreteness, hence, vague recognizability of seismogenic volumes of different
ranks. Thus the amplitude of the different sizes of the focuses inside of a rank can be significant.
The forms, depths, density of allocation, "maturity", speeds and terms of "maturing" should be
unequal both inside of rank and between different ranks. All this should complicate inevitably and
significantly the general picture of radiation and distribution of tectonic waves and a problem of
recognition and interpretation of conformable signals as precursores of the strong earthquakes
unloading those or others concrete focuses at that or other certain terms.
All this is true also concerning those seismoactive zones, through which tectonic waves
follow "by transit" on distances in thousands of kilometers and more to the recording stations. Such
interstitial, complicately structured and functioning sources of excitation of tectonic waves should
even more hamper recognition and interpretation those elements of a wave picture which could be
considered as precursors of earthquakes of this or that force, in this or that area, at this or that time.
Besides there are inevitable interference effects in displays of the waves moving in different
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directions in complicated geomedium. High sensitivity of the apparatus, providing exact
registration of signals, complicates the whole of assemble, simultaneously hampering their
identification as results of the certain processes in any concrete area, and interpretation as
precursors of those or other events. A picture is complicated by mechanical properties of rocks, by
the character of geostructure, by fluidsaturation, depths, a thermal stream, which operate in
common, changing in time and in space, influencing character and intensity of occurrence and
distribution of tectonic waves not summatively, but by systemic mode. The integrated result should
possess not previsible qualities which are not following from properties of each factor separately.
Accordingly, in a recorded wave picture hardly it is possible to hope on reliability of revealing
results of action of any concrete factor.
All this lead to questions about principles and methods of interpretation of data recorded at
such greater distances from places of origin of tectonic waves, about validity of statements 90%
reliability forecasts of the earthquakes received on the basis of long-range precursors. On the
contrary, in a view of concepts of nonlinear dynamics [1] and the self-organized criticality [17] in
nonlinear far-from-equilibrium systems the opinions about unpredictability earthquakes [26-31]
may be considered as been proved.
6 CONCLUSIONS
In what to see attributes of forthcoming earthquake, a problem of its reliable prediction
consists in character of a recorded signal itself. It, because of self-similarity and rough-discrete
structure of geomedium, at any area and at any interval of time gives not one, distinctly isolated
anomaly-precursor, but always a few extremes of different-ranks, with low-contrast of
differences on adjacent ranks, and fluctuating on amplitudes and duration in ranks.
Now even the authors reporting on successes, in the majority agree, that the reliable way to
the steady forecast is still not founded. But what results should be received to declare rightfully
about achievement of the satisfactory decision of the problem? In fact any empirical result shows
what has already occured, and nothing tells about what should happen.
Only the theoretical substantiation may give confidence in the forecast. But it needs
empirical control, which, however, will be completed not earlier, than the term of the next forecast
will end, i.e. when it will not be needed. Only then it becomes clear, whether assumed tactics was
justified. But this conclusion will define again what has already taken place, and nothing will tell
about the future. If 12 or 13 events from 15 are successfully predicted, whether there is a certainty,
that the forecast of the following 15, and then of 30 events will be better or insignificantly worse?
There are neither theoretical nor empirical bases to expect occurrence of such certainty.

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26. Geller, R.J., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y., and Mulargia, F. Eathquakes Cannot Be Predicted // Science.
1997. Vol. 275. P. 16161617.
27. Huang J. and Turcotte D.L. Are Earthquakes an Example of Deterministic Chaos? // J. Geophys. Res.
1990. Vol. 17. P. 223226
28. Kagan, Y.Y. and Jackson, D.D. Earthquake Prediction: A Sorrowful Tale // AGU West Pacif. Geophys.
Meet., Hong Kong (July 2529). 1994. P. 5758.
29. New Model Suggests Quakes are Random // Geotimes. 1993. Vol. 38. N. 2. P. 7.
30. Olami Z., Feder H.J.S., and Christensen, K. Self-Organized Criticality in a Continuous, Nonconservative
Cellular Automaton Modeling Eartquakes // Phys. Rev. Lett. 1992. Vol. 68. N. 8. P. 12441247.
31. Pavlos G.P., Latousakis J., and Dialotis D. Looking at a Seismic Event as a Chaotic Deterministic
Process // [Pap.] Eur. Geophys. Soc. 16th Gen. Assem. Atmos., Hydros., and Space Sci.. Wiesbaden
(2226 Apr. 1991). Ann. Geophys. 1991. Vol. 9. P. 538539.






Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
the Modern Civilization. Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011.
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176


SECTION 2
Earth Sciences

SUBSECTION - Geology and Geophysics


ELABORATION OF THE INTERDISCIPLINARY DATABASE FOR THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THE GEODYNAMIC MODELS OF DEEP STRUCTURE OF THE
NATURE DISASTER REGIONS
(NEFTEGORSK EARTHQUAKE, SAKHALIN ISLAND)

A.G. Rodnikov
Geophysical Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
rodnikov@wdcb.ru

The Information interdisciplinary database was used for construction of the deep structure
model in the region of the Neftegorsk Earthquake which has occurred on May 28, 1995 in the
North Sakhalin. The location of the earthquake epicentre was 52.6N, 142.8 E with magnitude
Ms=7.2. The hypocentre of Neftegorsk earthquake was found on a depth of 18 km. As a result of
this disastrous earthquake a seismic rupture of north-northeast strike of an overall length of 35 km
appeared which caused right-lateral strike-slip fault displacement with amplitude of the horizontal
shift component up to 8 m and vertical upthrust component up to 2 m. The constructed model
shows that North Sakhalin consists of the North Sakhalin sedimentary basin, the Deryugin basin
and the ophiolite complex located between them. The Deryugin basin was formed on site of an
ancient deep trench after subducting the Okhotsk sea plate under the volcanic arc along Sakhalin in
the Late Cretaceous-Paleogene.
The North Sakhalin sedimentary basin was formed on a place of back-arc basin at that time.
The ophiolite complex combined by the ultrabasic rocks, fixes position of ancient subduction zone
acting about 100-60 million years ago. On a surface the subduction zone manifests itself as deep
faults running along Sakhalin.
The center of the Neftegorsk earthquake was directly formed by burst of activity of this
ancient subduction zone. From a position of the ancient subduction zone under Sakhalin, which is a
cause of strong earthquakes here, it follows that the region is one of seismic dangerous in Russia.

Proposition


We propose to create the International Information Interdisciplinary Database including
geology-geophysical parameters of lithosphere under thenature disaster regions of the Earth which
characterized by tectonic, seismic and volcanic activity and other natural hazards. It will give the
chance to construct geodynamic models of a deep structure of the regions dangerous to people living
here.
This database will provide a basis for the further possibilities of a prediction and prevention
of grave consequences of disastrous events. Constructed on the basis of complex interpretation of
the geologic-geophysical data the geodynamic models of active continental margins give the
chance: to study a deep structure of the Earth under seismic dangerous zones, volcanic areas,
mineralization regions and sedimentary basins; to investigate a role of the deep processes in mantle
Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
the Modern Civilization. Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011.
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177

which have an influence on formation of crust structuress; to relate the geological features,
tectonomagmatic, hydrothermal activity with the processes in the upper mantle; to plot maps in
detail with zones of increasing risks to prevent active building or other economic activities in such
dangerous regions.



INCREASED SEISMIC DANGER: DUE TO EARTHQUAKES OR THE HUMAN
ACTIVITIES?

Rumiana Glavcheva
1
and Margarita Matova
2
1
National Institute for Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Sofia, Bulgaria
2
Geological Institute, Sofia, Bulgaria
glavchev@geophys.bas.bg, m_matova@geology.bas.bg
The time behavior of strongest world earthquakes announced in the USGS NEIC data base is
investigated for the latest 120 years (invention of modern seismographs). At a magnitude more or
equal to 6.5, unpersuasive (correlation coefficient up to 0.46) very slow increasing in the
earthquakes amount (around 7% in 10 years, at a linear approximation) is established after the 70
ies

of the 20
th
century. In data sets of greater lower cut-off magnitude any trend of quantity could not
be noticed. Concerning to the energy radiated by earthquakes, two upper extremes of energy exist
at the beginning of both, the 20
th
and 21
st
century. The data set of M >=7.5, treated by a linear
approximation, shows (correlation coefficient 0.67) a slight trend of radiated seismic energy to
increase with time (around 2.5 times in 10 years) during the latest 3 decades. A special attention is
devoted to different kinds of seismic events in Bulgaria. Some recommendations are proposed.
Keywords: strongest world earthquakes, time distribution, seismic energy released,
Bulgarian natural seismicity, man-made seismicity, natural man-made earthquakes

1. INTRODUCTION

At present, during the first decades of the 21
st
century, the humanity is going through more
and more difficulties. There are many reasons of this: the shortening of on-surface and sub-surface
wealth of the Earth (mineral-water-oil deposits) is advancing; most citizens in the developed
countries are motionless due to the hi-tech boom there; deep changes in the ecosystem at all,
political stress and economic crisis, religious defiance, and terrorism are set in. In addition,
devastating natural phenomena have recently badly disturbed the Earth. Some of them tornado,
hurricanes and floods were of local character. The earthquakes and the volcano eruptions represent
distinct indicators of the no stopped Earths life and evolution. The earthquakes create the biggest
regional and global damages to the planet. Not long ago, volcanoes in the Northern Europe and
South-Eastern Asia disturbed the local society life. They also caused difficulties in the regional and
the global air traffic.
Recovering from disasters of wide spread scale, like the earthquakes, is rather expensive.
Many lives are lost. The nations suffer heavy economical and financial losses. The normal
activities of people are disturbed. The troubles happen due to surface faulting, landslides,
liquefaction, tectonic deformation, tsunamis, seiches, and ground shaking itself. In the latest years
numerous and intensive manifestations of earthquakes, except of volcanoes, attracted the attention
of the society, mainly of the scientists.
The accent of this study is on earthquakes of whatever type they would have been.

2. WORLD SPREAD EARTHQUAKES
2.1. Earthquakes typology

The earthquakes and created by them seismic danger for population and the environment
represent subject of our interest and investigation.
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178

The seismic events are mainly of natural (geological) origin. The earthquakes occur because
of sudden stress changes in the earth. They presumably originate from a sudden slip along a fault or
a slab in a zone of subduction, obduction (tectonic earthquakes) or in cases of magmatic activity
(volcanic shocks). Karsts or cave collapses create natural quakes of limited sizes. The tectonic
earthquakes are the most dangerous. The radiated seismic energy results in ground shaking that
causes consequences from unnoticeable changes on the earths surface to damages beyond repair.
This type of earthquakes may trigger seismic activity for years. Prior to the time of modern
instrumental records of earthquakes, the earthquakes were described by people who experienced
seismic shaken, i.e. in regions well inhabited at that with cultural traditions. The enormous
advantage of present possibilities of earthquakes documentation is visually demonstrated by
illustrations in Fig. 1.

(a)

(b)

Fig. 1. Worldwide earthquakes of a magnitude M >=6.5: (a) 1600-1880; (b) 1973-2010
[supplied by USGS NEI C]. I n 280 year pre-instrumental period only 78 shocks were documented and the
focal depths were slightly distinguished.

Along with the human evolution some other type of earthquakes appeared and attracts
observation. These are earthquakes caused by human activities, so they are called man-made
seismic manifestations. One of them is the blasting activity. It is conducted routinely in mines,
quarries, road building, and other human endeavors and does not induce considerable post-
earthquakes. The ground motion is produced by waves that are generated by sudden pressure at the
explosive source. The explosions energy characteristics cannot gain values corresponding to large
natural earthquakes. Consequently, the explosions cause damages to limited territories and in
relatively short time period.
In special cases the man-made factors in addition to the natural ones contribute intensively to
the earthquake running. These earthquakes could be defined as natural-technological or natural -
man-made ones. They happen to be a result of mine works, of creation and filling up with water of
big dams, etc, when they occur in tectonic or volcanic active territories. The information about
consequences provoked by natural-man-made earthquakes is insufficient for generalizations. However, a number
of scientific investigations are devoted to one of the classic examples of "reservoir-induced
seismicity" that is the 1967 Koyna earthquake in India. It is evidenced that the filling and changes
in water level of the Koyna dam has contributed to the earthquake origination. All the dwellings in
Koynanagar and several nearby villages were damaged by this seismic event with magnitude 6.3;
the shock killed 177 people, injured over 2000, and left 50000 homeless.
The present day activities of the society over our planet are increasing very intensively. We
have established that the number of the man-made as well as of the geological-man-made
earthquakes is growing. In the course of time, it is not to be excluded certain increase of their
negative consequences as well.
Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
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179

2.2. Recent world earthquakes
Many catastrophic earthquakes have occurred since the beginning of the 21
st
century. These
were earthquakes in the Eastern Indian Ocean (the Great Indian Ocean Earthquake [EQ, here and
afterwards] on 26 Dec 2004, magnitude M was 9; it triggered massive tsunamis and made millions
homeless: 226 000 souls lost their lives in the hours that followed), in China (the Great Sichuan
Earthquake on 12 May 2008, M 8, was a deadly earthquake over 69 000 have been killed, around
374 000 injured, about 4.8 million people left homeless), Haiti earthquake (12 Jan 2010, M 7: over
180 000 homes were damaged or destroyed, 1.5 mln people became homeless - 86% of people in
Port au Prince were living in slum conditions, 220 000 people died in result of the EQ impact plus
over 4000 people were killed by cholera, over 300 000 people were injured and 216 000 were
infected), this year Japanese earthquake (11 March 2011, M 9) that is the largest in Japan since
modern instrumental recordings began 130 years ago - its unfavorable consequences (the
Fukushima NPPs) concern the overall humanity of the world.
This sad list of catastrophic earthquakes could be expended to the seismogenic processes
realized in the Central Asia (Pakistan: the Kashmir EQ on 8 October 2005, M 7.6 to 7.8: 3.5
million people homeless; 18 Jan 2011, M 7.2-7.4), South America (Chile EQ on 27 February 2010;
it triggered a tsunami which devastated several coastal towns in south-central Chile and damaged
the port at Talcahuano; the death toll is 562 victims), Kamtchatka earthquake series (20 April 2006,
M max 7.6; 40 people injured), Indonesian EQs (the West Java earthquake on 2 Sept 2009, M 7.0,
killing at least 79 people, injuring over 1 250; the southern Sumatra EQ of 30 September 2009, M
7.6; around 135 000 houses were severely damaged, 65 000 houses were moderately damaged; 1
115 dead, 1 214 severely injured and 1 688 slightly injured people), etc.
Facts and danger are real. The state must be received and get under control. An important
question to be settled is the following: Is the earthquake power over the Earth increasing?

2.3. Time changes in world strong earthquakes behavior
2.3.1. Main tasks to be decided
To answer the very important question set above, two main tasks have to be treated:
(1) Is there some growth of the strong earthquakes amount in the Earth?
(2) Is there some increase in the released seismic energy which acts on people, man-made
constructions and the environment?

2.3.2. Earthquake database
We searched for changes of seismic activity using the USGS NEIC earthquake database.
This earthquake database might be considered one of the most homogeneous along with the ISC and
EMSC databases.
In the course of time variable reliability should be prescribed to the data. It is inferred from
the facts that this is due to (i) the way of obtaining of each individual EQ record (from descriptions
or instrumentally), (ii) the manner of data accumulation (density of points of observation), (iii) the
approach of EQ parameterization (non-instrumental or instrumental).
Most important feature which characterizes the EQ data bases (the catalogues) reliability is
the manner of the joint catalogue compiling. To express all the EQ parameters uniformly it is
important to know how each of them has been produced and to assess its reliability.
The central problem here, to what extent the USGS catalogue can be believed, is possible to
be visually decided. In Fig. 2 earthquakes amount since 1600 till now can be traced versus time.

Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
the Modern Civilization. Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011.
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180

1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Time (year)
0
20
40
60
W
o
r
l
d

E
Q
S
,

M
>

6
.
5
a
n
n
u
a
l

n
u
m
b
e
r
0
20
40
60
depth s700 km
N = 2375

Fig. 2. Time behavior of quantity of world strong EQS, M6.5 since 1600.

Just about the last decade of the 19
th
century this plot shows acceptable pattern of annual
earthquake number. Most probably, this is connected with the time when the first modern
seismographs were invented, the period 1880-1900. After that time, the epoch of non-uniform
parameterization of earthquakes came about to its end.
2.3.3. Time changes of the earthquake amount
In order to trace if there is any change of the earthquake amount in time, several excerpts of
damaging earthquakes proceeding from the USGS catalogues and USGS searching software have
been compiled. After the distribution pattern shown in Fig. 2, these samples cover the time
backwards to 1891. The minimum magnitude of interest in our study is M 6.5 because such amount
of radiated energy is capable to cause casualties or substantial damage on land regions.
The extracted earthquakes are divided in four groups according to the lower cut-off
magnitude. The sample containing the greatest number of earthquakes N=2 291 is that one of a
magnitude M 6.5 or more; the next samples are formed with a step of 0.5 M. Thus, Fig. 3 illustrates
the time distribution of earthquakes under describing conditions; they occurred at any depth in the
Earth down to 700 km.


1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
W
o
r
ld

s
e
is
m
ic
it
y
,

M
>

6
.
5
a
n
n
u
a
l
e
a
r
t
h
q
u
a
k
e

a
m
o
u
n
t
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
depth s 700 km


1

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
0
5
10
15
W
o
r
ld

s
e
is
m
ic
it
y
,

M
>

8
.
0
a
n
n
u
a
l
E
Q

a
m
o
u
n
t
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
10
15
depth s 700 km
N max
N min
4

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
0
5
10
15
W
o
r
ld

s
e
is
m
ic
it
y
,

M
>

7
.
5
a
n
n
u
a
l
E
Q

a
m
o
u
n
t
0
5
10
15 depth s 700 km
N min
N max
3

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
0
5
10
15
20
W
o
r
ld

s
e
is
m
ic
it
y
,

M
>

7
.
0
a
n
n
u
a
l
E
Q

a
m
o
u
n
t
0
5
10
15
20
depth s 700 km

2

Fig. 3. Time behavior of quantity of world strong EQs, instrumentally recorded during 1891-2010.
In both cases, with a lower M value equal to 6.5 and 7.0 (plot 1 and 2 in Fig. 3), the annual
amount of earthquakes shows two different patterns versus time. The two samples have analogous
character; they show a crucial moment around the year 1970. Such behaviour can be explained by
two reasons: (i) since 1973 the work conditions in NEIC have been changed for the M>=6.5
Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
the Modern Civilization. Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011.
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181

earthquakes, and, respectively, since about 1968 concerning the data set of M>=7.0 events; (ii) the
specificity of the samples content. This needs to be precised. The work conditions are going to
better by drawing recording points closer to each other, so that they to cover well the seismogenic
volumes of the Earth. What concerns the content of the cited samples, they consist of aftershocks
presumably or represent durable seismogenic activation at a high energetic level in certain regions
(clusters or sequences).
In case 1 (M>=6.5) 1973 is the crucial year; since that time the EQ amount seems to have
been increased to 5-7 times. In case of plot 2 (M>=7.0) the EQ amount seemingly increases
minimum twice since 1968. On the opposite, the greatest amount of most severe world EQs (M
above 7.5 or 8.0) was in the first two decades of the 20
th
century. The minimum number of largest
EQs is met about a half of a century later (plot 3 and 4 in Fig. 3); this effect started around 1970,
after the crucial points of M>=6.5 and M>=7.0 sets. We consider the registration of largest world
EQs completely reliable, especially in the latest decades.
In view of the fact that the routine computation of surface wave magnitude M
S
in the NEIC
activity began in 1968, we would have confidence in analysis based on data since that moment. In
the working samples compiled in this study we are using M
S
namely. After dividing the general set
of earthquakes with M>=6.5 into subsets in respect of the focal depth of events, the resulting time
behavior is as it is shown in Fig. 4.

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
20
30
40
50
60
W
o
r
l
d

e
a
r
t
h
q
u
a
k
e
s
a
n
n
u
a
l

n
u
m
b
e
r

M

>
6
.
5
slope 0.28
Cor. Coef. = 0.34
depth s 700 km
N= 1644





1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
20
30
40
50
60
70
W
o
r
l
d

e
a
r
t
h
q
u
a
k
e
s
a
n
n
u
a
l

n
u
m
b
e
r

M
>

6
.
5
Slope: 0.156
Cor. Coef. = 0.21
depth s 150 km
N= 1453





1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
0
10
W
o
r
l
d

e
a
r
t
h
q
u
a
k
e
s
a
n
n
u
a
l

n
u
m
b
e
r

M

>
6
.
5
Slope: 0.128
Cor. Coef. = 0.46
depth: 151-700 km, N=191



Fig. 4. Slight increase of annual world-spread EQ amount for M>=6.5 events since 1973.

Obviously, the annual EQ amount oscillates with quite great amplitude, up to 30% between
neighbouring years. Since 1973 the data set of M>=6.5 shows a trend of very slow increase of EQ
amount per annum. The correlation coefficients which describe time behavior of the earthquake
quantity derived from a model of linear approximation are too low for catching a definitive trend of
changes. More details can be found in Table 1.
Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
the Modern Civilization. Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011.
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182

Table 1.
Time behavior of world earthquakes amount in USGS NEIC data sets M>=6.5 and M>=7.0
World-spread earthquakes (EQs), M >=6.5
Time
Interval, t
Focal
depth h,
km
Number
of EQs,
N
Time behavior of EQs
amount
Linear approximation
N(t)
Comments
N Slope
coef.
Correl.
coef., r
1891
2010
<= 700 2273 1973 is a crucial year starting from that
time, the average EQ amount is 5-7 times
more
<= 150 2019 Since 1973 around 5-7 times more EQs
than earlier
151700 254 Slight increase since 1973
1891
1972
<= 700 629 0.046 0.275 Oscillations around the averaging line;
Very slow increasing
<= 150 566 0.044 0.29
151700 63 0.003 0.07
1973 -
2010
<= 700 1644 0.28 0.338 Unpersuasive, slight trend of EQs
increasing (around 7% in a 10-year period)
<= 150 1453 0.156 0.21 Slow increasing
151700 191 0.128 0.46 Slow increasing
World-spread earthquakes (EQs), M>=7.0
1891
2010
<= 700 1055 Annual amount of EQs - about 2 times
more after 1968; unpersuasively
<= 150 934 This very great part of cases (90%) has
imposed on the time behavior
151700 121 121 0.013 0.36 Slight trend of increasing too slow
change
1891
1967
<= 700 486 0.03 0.02 No general trend; only oscillations around
the averaging line
<= 150 429 -0.02 0.16 Allusion to decreasing of EQs amount in
time
151700 57 0.002 0.05 No trend for changes except from slight
oscillations
1968 -
2010
<= 700 299 0.08 0.30 Oscillations around the averaging line;
slight trend to increase of EQs (around
34% in 50 yrs)
<= 150 235 0.008 0.03 Oscillations around the averaging line
151700 64 0.07 (0.61) Appearance of 2-3 EQs per annum since
1990, against lacking in realizations
previously

Table 1 gives an idea about the results of the analytical analysis made. Some trend in
changes of the earthquake number could be evidenced in the data set of M >=6.5. Any similar trend
cannot be confirmed by very low values of the slope coefficients at M>=7.0. In the data sets of
bigger lower magnitude threshold that contain the main shocks and have been extracted from the
Proceedings of the International Congress Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of
the Modern Civilization. Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011.
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183

USGS NEIC database, it is not possible to mention any word about increase in the world
earthquake amount.

2.3.4. Energy-time behavior of world strong earthquakes
Damaging influence of the earthquakes is associated with two basic circumstances: (i) how
powerful the earthquake is, and (ii) the vulnerability of the attacked objects. The earthquakes
power concerning society is manifested by the radiated elastic seismic energy Es. The affectation
degree is influenced by interaction between the frequency characteristics of the seismic oscillations
and of each individual object.
This subsection is devoted to the first of these problems, especially whether there is a steady
change of the energy radiated by earthquakes. On this purpose, the illustration in Fig. 5 has been
drawn. Plots there show the time changes of radiated seismic energy, year after year, in the course
of one century. Annual sums of energy, obtained through the Gutenberg-Richters correlation
between the earthquake magnitude (its surface wave value M
s
) and elastic seismic energy, are
presented in Fig. 5, a to d, at different lower M-threshold (0.5M units between neighbouring
levels).


1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
15
16
17
18
19
A
n
n
u
a
l ra
d
ia
te
d
s
e
is
m
ic
e
n
e
rg
y
L
o
g
E
s (jo
u
le
s
)
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
16
18
M> 6.5
Log10 Es = 4.8 + 1.5 Ms
7
8
9
Ms
6.5

(a)





1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
16
17
18
19
A
n
n
u
a
l r
a
d
ia
te
d
s
e
is
m
ic
e
n
e
r
g
y
L
o
g
E
s (
jo
u
le
s
)
16
17
18
19
7
8
9
Ms M> 7.0
Log10 Es = 4.8 + 1.5 Ms

(b)

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
16
17
18
19
20
A
n
n
u
a
l ra
d
ia
te
d
s
e
is
m
ic
e
n
e
rg
y
L
o
g
E
s (jo
u
le
s
)
M> 7.5
Log10 Es = 4.8 + 1.5 Ms
7.5
8
9
Ms




1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
17
18
19
20
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
17
18
19
20
A
n
n
u
a
l r
a
d
ia
te
d
s
e
is
m
ic
e
n
e
r
g
y
L
o
g
E
s (
jo
u
le
s
)
M> 8.0
Log10 Es = 4.8 + 1.5 Ms
8
9
Ms



(d)

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
15
16
17
18
19
A
n
n
u
a
l ra
d
ia
te
d
s
e
is
m
ic
e
n
e
rg
y
L
o
g
E
s (jo
u
le
s
)
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
16
18
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
M> 6.5
7
8
9
Ms
6.5
15
16
17
18
19
Log10 Es = 4.8 + 1.5 Ms
M> 8.0
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
M> 7.5
15
16
17
18
19
M> 7.0

1980 1990 2000 2010
Time (year)
16
17
18
19
A
n
n
u
a
l r
a
d
ia
te
d
s
e
is
m
ic
e
n
e
r
g
y
, M
>
=
7
.5
L
o
g
E
s (
jo
u
le
s
)
slope: 0.039
Cor. coef. =0.67
depth <=700 km

(e)

Fig. 5. Time behavior of seismic energy radiated by worldwide earthquakes, 1890-2010
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It is obvious that two apparent maximums of radiated energy are caused by largest
earthquakes on the Earth (M >=8.0). These two extremes of energy exist at the beginning of both,
the 20
th
and 21
st
century. They are present in all the data sets independently of the lower cut-off
magnitude value of the sample.
To end with the energy-time behaviour of world earthquakes, the envelopes of annual
quantities of seismic energy for the four considered data sets are proposed (Fig. 5, plot e, on the
left). Relying on the manner of compiling this plot, the lower extremes of energy are not to be
taken into account. Interesting are the upper extremes. The cases of different lower cut-off M-
value, that correspond to the same moment (year, in particular) show upper extreme values quite
close together. This is convincing evidence that the smaller magnitude EQs have small contribution
to total amount of radiated energy.
Is there any evidence of increased potential of the Earth to originate severe earthquakes? A
few intervals of earthquake radiation could be visually distinguished in Fig. 5e (on the left). Two
interpretations are possible:
Variant 1:
- Since the middle of the last decade of 19
th
century to about 1920: mean magnitude around
8.7-8.8;
- 1920 1960: average magnitude around 8.5;
- ca. 1963 2000: minimum radiated Es, average magnitude around 8 ;
- 2000 2011: M 8.7-8.8 again, i.e. second maximum of Es.
Variant 2:
- Up to 1963 the behaviour is the same as above;
- 1963 1978: around 8 ;
- Since about 1981 (if the largest half-period would be broken) till now: increase of the Es
radiation.
In order to clarify which of the variants would be more acceptable, let us go back to previos
plots in Fig. 5. In the sample M >=8.0 any increase of radiated energy is not noticeable. However,
in data sets of smaller lower M-threshold clear energy increase can be marked since 1982. The
linear approximation applied to the events of the data set M >=7.5 shows a slight trend of radiated
seismic energy to increase with time (Fig.5e, on the right); in a 10-year period Es increases only
2.465 times (for the sake of comparison, the magnitude increase of 1 unit corresponds to about 32
times more released seismic energy). This behaviour is evidenced by the correlation coefficient
equal to 0.67.
SEISMIC PECULIARITIES IN BULGARIA
Losses at recent natural earthquakes

In the first half of 20
th
century several quite damaging tectonic earthquakes occurred in
Bulgaria. They were kept in mind for long. Their origins were spread all over the territory of
Bulgaria from the very NE territory in 1901 (M 7.2, Black Sea epicenter) to the SW state boundary
in 1904 (two earthquakes with M 7.8 and 7.1), in the Upper Thracia - the 1909 local damaging
earthquake (M 5.9) and the 1928 large earthquakes (M 6.8 and 7.0) which involved many
subsequent shocks for almost four years.
Beyond damages of dwellings, these earthquakes brought significant disturbance to the
environment. The offshore 1901 earthquake and its aftershocks caused wide-spread landslides and
rockfalls along the Black Sea coast line. The 1904 earthquakes occurred in rarely populated
mountainous area and were not popular with great damages in the relatively poor country
buildings. However, they obstructed the great Strouma River and formed barrages. They influenced
unfavorably the current of the river and provoked troubles in the local transport communications
and life. Landslides, rockfalls and cracks threw into disorder the existing villages and small towns.
The 1928 South Bulgarian seismic activity killed over 100 inhabitants and a great amount of
livestock. The 18.04.1928 Popovitsa earthquake (M 7.0) caused considerable damages in Plovdiv
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city, the second important city in Bulgaria (Fig. 6). In a great area, dwellings, hospitals, schools,
infrastructure and the environment were destroyed.


Fig. 6. Destruction of representative buildings in Plovdiv City as a result of 1928
Popovitsa earthquake (M 7.0) [1]
In the same 20
th
century the Romanian Vrancea source hit seriously the northern part of
Bulgaria in 1940, 1977, 1986 and 1990. It is well known that the strong Vrancea earthquakes are
generated at depths about 100-150 km. In the Balkan region they provoke disasters of different
degrees in almost all territory of the Peninsula. The damages in Bulgaria, especially in its Northern
part are very serious. Financial losses are very important as well. The 1977 Vrancea (Romania)
earthquake with its Mw 7.5, maximum among all cited events, caused human losses, considerable
destructions and significant changes in the environment of Romania, and North Bulgaria (Fig. 7).

Fig. 7. Economic College in Svishtov (N Bulgaria) ruined by 1977 Vrancea earthquake (Mw 7.5) [2]


Man-made earthquakes
The man-made earthquakes are related to various kinds of human activities in the world. In
the second half of the 20
th
century the scientists paid attention to important influence of the human
activity over several geological processes including the earthquakes. So, the first studies appeared
about influence of big barrages on the seismic activity. The mining and the drilling in the Earth
crust also provoke appearance or increase in existing seismic activity [3]. There are numerous
cultural monuments with interesting history and art heritage of great worth in the Sofia City
surrounding. They are known under the name The Small Atos. One of them is the mediaeval
Seslavtsi monastery (Fig. 8, SsM in Fig. 9).
At the end of the 16
th
and the beginning of the 17
th
century the monastery was renewed
with the help of the rich Kremikovtsi monastery (KrM). Its decoration was very attractive. It
included traditional themes, also new elements of the Sofia City history such as two heroes of the
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national resistance against the Turkish domination. The decoration was made by the famous
Bulgarian painter Pimen Zografsky. The monastery represents a fragment of the spiritual richness
of Sofia and Bulgaria as a whole.
In the second half of the 20
th
century a short-term mining work took place in the monastery
surrounding. The working territory was very close to the national cultural monument. The mining
included a number of explosive works. The explosions destroyed a big part of the monastery
buildings and fractured considerably the church (Fig. 8).


Fig. 8. The Seslavtsi monastery (W Bulgaria) that was damaged by a number of man-made earthquakes,
and seemingly by natural quakes as well


Drilling works could provoke or increase the shallow seismic activity as well. The drilling related
to the research of schist gas represents a new try for the decision of energetic problems of the world. In
UK these drillings cause first manifestations of earthquakes in the investigated regions. Their
magnitudes are of 1.6-2.3. The government decision has stopped very rapidly the works in the indicated
direction. It is very significant decision of the appeared problems. It shows that changes in seismic
security of the UK are not acceptable. The example of UK should be applied in other countries as well.
In Bulgaria the scientific discussions about the beginning of the research of schist gas in the NE
Bulgaria are very animated. We hope that the arising problem would be decided in most reasonable
way.
Natural man-made earthquakes
This kind of seismic events are in process of study. In Bulgaria, there is some evidence for
periodical seismic activation of the region of the barrage Iskar and its elongated artificial lake. The
barrage is situated to the South of Sofia, the capital of the country. The lake follows the direction of
a recently active Iskar fault zone and it is a fragment of the Maritsa fault zone. The Maritsa fault
zone is one of most often activated structures in Bulgaria. The tectonic situation creates
possibilities of generation or intensification of the earthquakes. The barrage and its artificial lake
are capable to initiate more active seismic events originating.
Some local impacts are known to have reached intensity up to VI or VII degree during 19
th

and 20
th
centuries. Their epicenters can be noticed within a square framed area in Fig 9, a.
Nowadays instrumental National Network clarifies the picture of distribution of the earthquake
sources in the region (Fig. 9, b). The periodically manifested seismic activity in the barrage
surrounding could be product of the local tectonic instability and the changes in water level in the
man-made hydrological construction (Fig. 9).
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(a)
23 24
43
Magnitude
< 3.0
3.0 - 3.9
4.0 - 4.9
5.0 - 5.9
6
monastery
Iskar-dam
KrM
SsM
SOFIA

1962
1905
1980
1890
1910 1904
1904
1917
XIXc
XIXc
1917

(b)
23 24
43
Magnitude
3.5-3.9
3.0-3.4
2.5-2.9
2.0-2.4
< 2
monastery
I skar Dam

rM
SsM
SOF I A


Fig. 9. Seismic activity in the surrounding of the barrage I skar:
(a) 19st & 20th c prior to 2000; (b) in first decade of 21st c. [4]
The seismic data at disposal propose interesting information about the manifestations of
natural -man-made earthquakes. Till now the seismic intensity in the investigated region has been
limited, but the further development depends on the tectonic capability and the regime of filling in
the lake with water. The seismic manifestations in the region of the barrage Iskar have potential to
create considerable danger for the well populated Sofia City and its surrounding. Another example
of unfavorable influence of human intervention takes place in Provadia region (North-Eastern
Bulgaria). It is a territory with a long-time salt mining. The works occurred with different intensity
during its several thousand year exploration. The mining provokes manifestations of seismic
activity. The town is developed on two slopes of Provadia River where there are active faults and
landslides. The situation creates preconditions for tectonic movements. The local seismicity
includes relatively often weak and moderate earthquakes (Fig. 10). Due to the shallow depth (down
to 10 km) of the earthquake sources and predisposition to landslides, the seismic activity
manifestation is related to serious problems for the population. Several destructions of buildings
and considerable number of slightly fractured dwellings in the town of Provadia and its
surrounding are the result of influence of the natural - man-made earthquakes on the badly built
residential constructions.
Conclusions
Finally we underline that the seismic danger in Bulgaria nd over our planet is increasing.
This development is as a result from natural and man-made processes that cause the manifestations
of natural, man-made and natural-man-made earthquakes. How does the portion of the natural
earthquakes look during the latest 120 years?
- There is very slow increasing in the earthquakes amount; this process of changing is
detected with great difficulty after the 20
th
centurys 70ies.
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- Some increase in the annually radiated seismic energy is noticeable since 1982 in all
checked data sets with minimum M value lower than M 8; based on the USGS NEIC internet
source they are compiled with a step of 0.5M down to M6.5. The most distinct effect, traced in the
M>=7.5 set of data, is the 2.5-fold increasing in 10 years (correlation coefficient of 0.67 at linear
approximation).

Fig. 10. Natural and natural-man- made earthquakes in the region of the town of
Provadia during 1995-2004 [5]
In our days, when the rapid technological evolution in the 21
st
century is indisputable fact,
the responsibility of the scientists and the engineers is growing non stop. Our society and our planet
feel strong technological influence. Respectively, the present day situation provokes increasing in
the quantity of man-made or of geological-man-made earthquakes. Such a tendency could be
regulated or reduced by an active position and a good argumentation from the side of the
representatives of the society. The investigation of man-made and natural-man-made earthquakes
will be a task of recent 21
st
and the next centuries. Now it is time of responsible scientific and
technological decisions with good care for the people and nature. The reasonable decisions will
support the reduction of the negative seismic effects for the population and environment.

REFERENCES:
1. DIPOSE, 1931. Report of the Direction for help and reconstruction of the seismic region, Sofia, 432 p.
(in Bulgarian).
2. Brankov (Ed.) 1983. Vrancea earthquake in 1977. Its after-effects in the Peoples Republic of Bulgaria.
Publ. Hause of Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, 428 p. (in Bulgarian with English abstract).
3. Matova M. 1997. About some natural and man-induced seismic manifestations in Southern Bulgaria and
Northern Algeria. Proceedings of International Symposium on Eng. Geology and Environment. Athens,
Greece, p. 859-864.
4. Matova M., Glavcheva R. 2008. About the technogenic influence over the seismic activity in the region
of Sofia City. National Conference Scientific help of the transformations in the sphere of the security,
Sofia, 6.11.2008 (CD) (in Bulgarian).
5. Botev E., Glavcheva R., Matova M., Dimitrova,S., Tzoncheva I. 2005. Monitoring of natural and induced
seismicity of Provadia region (NE Bulgaria). 2
nd
EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 24-29 April 2005
(CD).

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189

SEISMIC INVESTIGATION OF THE EARTHS CRUST OF A UNIQUE PROVINCE OF
CENTRAL ASIA (ALTAI) WITH DEEP SEISMIC SOUNDING
A.S. Salnikov
1
, A.S. Efimov
1
, V.L. Kuznetsov
1
, V.M. Solovyev
2

1
SNIIGGIMS, Novosibirsk, Russia, seispv@sniiggims.ru, Efimov@sniiggims.ru
2
ASF GS SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia

The Altai-Sayany region is a unique rare metallic-gold-complex metallic province of
Central Asia. On the other hand it is characterized by rather high seismic activity.
Geodynamic situations within particular structural units do not only depend on regional and
local geomechanical processes caused by the development of mineral deposits (the Altai, Baikal rift
zone, etc.), construction of artificial water storages (the Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Bratsk ones),
changes of water level in large intracontinental basins (Lake Baikal), etc., but also on global
tectonic forces, such as the movement of Hindustan in a westward direction to the Eurasian plate,
which define seismicity of Central Asia. It arouses considerable interest in studying the earths
crust structures and composition in the region. In recent years within the Altai-Sayan folded region
geophysical monitoring of surroundings has been made in the context of federal and international
programs aimed at studying geodynamic situation and forecasting seismic danger of the territory.
Various organizations, namely, Siberian Branch of the RF Academy of Sciences, SNIIGGiMS and
GEON company, have been carrying out systematic investigations of the Earthcrust of the Altai-
Sayany region with deep seismic sounding.
SEISMIC DATA PROCESSING AND INTERPRETATION
As of now, more than 5 000 km regional seismic profiles have been measured on the
territory of the Altai-Sayany region (Fig. 1). In terms of technique all the organizations conducted
observations using similar systems: spread offset to a maximum of 300 km, receiver-to-receiver
distance from 5-10 to 20 km at a shotpoint interval of 20 to 40 km. Powerful 100-tons stationary
and 40-tons mobile vibrator sources (Fig. 2) measured five 300-km long DSS lines along which we
obtained depth seismic sections of the earths crust and upper mantle (Fig. 3). Using special
procedure of areal interpretation of time-distance curves of direct Pg and Sg waves and Moho-
refracted Pn and Sn waves caused by industrial explosions and earthquakes and recorded by the
areal seismograph network (Fig. 1), we have established the distribution of and S wave formation
velocities in the upper earths crust and and S wave boundary velocities along the Moho
discontinuity in the central Altai-Sayan region over the area of 250 000 km
2
.

Fig. 1. The scheme of seismic research of the Altay-Sayan folded area
1 - DSS profiles, 2 - geotransects, 3 - vibroseismic profiles, 4 - seismic stations, 5 - earthquake epicenters (>
2) for the period of 1984-1992 and 1998-2000, 6 - Chyskoe earthquake, 7 and 8 - the region of area
seismological researches, 9 - boundary of the Altay-Sayan region
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Seismic tomography was used to cover the inner structure of the Earths crust. The
tomographic transform of a time field followed the method of 2D seismic tomography at first-
arrival time delays [1].



Fig. 2. 100-ton stationary and 40-ton mobile vibrator source



Fig. 3. Seismic section of the earths crust in line Bystrovka Novokyznetsk
1 - Depth obtained by reflected and refracted waves, 2 - Fracture zones obtained by geologic-goephysic data,
3 - Boundary, bedded and mean velocities of longitudinal and shear waves, correspondingly (km/sec),
4 - Epicentres of earthquakes of different energy classes, 5 - As this took place, one only used the most stable
and reliably traced longitudinal waves recorded at first arrivals in the range between 0 to 300 km. The
tomographic transform of a time field provided for constructing seismic-tomography sections in the form of
velocity fields. Data of conventional and seismic-tomographic interpretations were used in combination with
the resulting construction of geologic-geophysical sections.

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Fig. 4. Geologic-geophysical section of the Earths crust along the Kvarts geotraverse
1 volcanogenic-sedimentary complex; 2 granite gneiss (granitomorphic) layer; 3 granulitic layer;
4 basic layer; 5 rupture dislocations; 6 Moho discontinuity; 7 Consolidated crust surface


An example of such a combined interpretation is a segment of the geologic-geophysical
section over the Kvarts geotraverse (Fig. 4) crossing the Altai-Sayany Region in a north-
westward direction. Here, at the boundary of junction of the Altai-Sayany folded region with the
West-Siberian Plate there appears a sudden uplift of basic and granulitic rocks almost to the surface
leaving no place to granite-gneissic formations. In the inner structure of the Earths crust one can
observe local waveguides showing lower seismic velocities and a pillar-like intrusion of high-
velocity basic rocks. Many deep faults break the Earths crust into blocks. The consolidated crust
thickens from 30 km where the Kvarts profile crosses the Ob River to 49 km at its end portion.
RESULTS OF REGIONAL SEISMIC STUDIES
Geologic-geophysical sections were used to draw up schemes showing surface reliefs of
crystalline formations, granulitic and basic layers, and Moho.
Figure 5 presents a relief map of the consolidated crust of the Altai-Sayany Region, which
is highly varied. Against the background of average depths of 1 to 3 km one observes deep basins
of submeridional trend with maximum values of depth contours from 5 to 10 km (Kuznetsk,
Barnaul and Abakan ones). As a rule, the basins are broken apart by sizable uplifts of 0 to 2 km in
depth and limited by deep faults. A dense network of deep faults as a whole is a peculiar feature of
the structural surface of the territory under consideration.
Figure 6 displays a structure of the M-discontinuity. In the regional pattern the M-
discontinuity subsides from north to south between 36 and 54 km. On the background of the
regional subsidence three large submeridional uplifts of the M-discontinuity are apparent. In plan
they coincide with the Barnaul, Kuznetsk and Abakan basins revealed over the consolidated crust
surface.
Figure 7 is a scheme of the granulitic layer relief. In the center of the territory under
consideration there is a vast raised zone within which depths vary from 3 to 5 km. The whole
surface is broken with numerous faults.
Figure 8 shows a scheme of the basic layer surface. The relief of basites is rather
generalized. In the center of the area under investigation there is a large subsided zone with 30-35
km depths to its surface. The basite surface is broken with deep faults, which more often than not,
delineate rather wide linear uplifted zones of mainly submeridional trend.
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Fig. 5. Relief map of the ASR consolidated crust (on evidence derived from DSS)
1 the border of the Russian Federation; 2 rupture dislocations; 3 limit of Mesozoic-Cenozoic deposits
of the West-Siberian Plate; 4 depth contours to the consolidated crust surface


Fig. 6. Relief map of the ASR M-discontinuity (on evidence derived from DSS):
1 the border of the Russian Federation; 2 depth contours


Fig. 7. Scheme of the ASR granulitic layer relief (on evidence derived from DSS)
1 the border of the Russian Federation; 2 depth contours to the conventional surface of the granulitic
layer of 6.4 km/s; 3 rupture dislocations
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Fig. 8. Scheme of the ASR basic layer relief (on evidence derived from DSS)
1 the border of the Russian Federation; 2 depth contours to the conventional surface
of the granulitic layer of 6.8 km/s; 3 rupture dislocations

In the upper mantle of the region areas of lower (to 7.67.7 km/sec) and higher (to 8.38.4
km/sec) boundary velocities of P waves are apparent. Depths of the Moho discontinuity varying in
this region from 40.0 to 55.060.0 km are determined (Fig. 9).

Fig. 9. Depths distribution (a) and velocities distribution (b) on Moho in the Altay-Sayan folded area

Practically isotropic areas with maximum anisotropy factors of 13% and zones of evident
elastic anisotropy to 1012% are identified in the upper mantle of the Altai-Sayan region in
interpreting an anisotropic medium model (Fig. 10). We have also established changes in the
preferred orientation of the highest values of boundary velocity ellipses in some areas of the upper
mantle.
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Fig. 10. I nterpreted results of Moho refracted waves within the limits of the anisotropic model of medium

In the upper earths crust areas of higher (5.855.95 km/sec to 6.156.25 km/sec) and S
(3.403.45 to 3.573.59 km/sec) velocities are identified (Fig. 11).

Fig. 11. The distribution of P and S wave formation velocities in the upper earth's crust (0-10 km)

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Fig. 12. I nterpreted data of Pg (a) and Sg (b) waves for the anisotropic model of the upper earth's crust

In interpreting Pg and Sg waves within the limits of the anisotropic model, we have
established anisotropy factors varying from 1 to (7-9) %. This may be testimony to the fact that in
the earths crust there are very strong stresses or systems of oriented jointing responsible for the
effect of anisotropy of rather thick rock strata (Fig. 12). It is also found that the isotropic area
detected in the southwestern part of the region under investigation and showing minimum
anisotropy factors of (13) % correlates with the zone of maximum seismic activity in the Altai-
Sayan region. According to the -97 seismic zoning plan magnitude 9 earthquakes are
possible there.
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Analysis of structural imaging and its relation to minerals and earthquake focuses
The central part of the Altai-Sayan folded region is the most extensively studied area.
Interpreted seismic data enable a solid model of the earths crust and upper mantle of the region to
be developed, and extensive blocks differing widely in elastic parameters to be identified, which
may testify that the earths crust has a considerably inhomogeneous composition. Figure 13
illustrates Vp/(-1) distribution, where is the and S wave velocity ratio, whish is related to P
and S wave velocities in the upper earths crust at depths of 0 to 20 km.


Fig. 13. The distribution of parameter Vp/( -1) in the upper earth's crust

Heterogeneities of mechanical-and-physical properties of the medium largely dictate where
most of the known major earthquakes are confined to. The analyzed results lend essential support
to this fact as the strongest earthquakes of the Altai-Sayan folded region are confined to block
boundaries with different values of the parameter under consideration
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Fig. 14. Velocity of P wave (a), parameter Vp/Vs (b) and Poisson's ratio () of
waves distributed along the line crossing the Chuya earthquake epicenter

As indicated by Figure 14, the 90-km long aftershock zone of the 2003 Chuya earthquake
[2]correlates with the transition zone of high (to 9.2) to low (8.08.2) values of the above
parameter. It should be particularly emphasized that the aftershock zone itself (a long axis of
aftershock ellipse) is at a tangent to the boundaries of inhomogeneous blocks. The major Ureg-
Nura earthquake in the southern Altai is the similar case. It seems likely that media occurring
between homogeneous (in elastic properties) blocks are less firm (more dislocated by regional and
local faults), which promotes the aftershock process accompanied by liberation of the energy
accumulated in the Earths crust.
In making a comparison between seismic structural imaging and distribution of hard
minerals, mainly coal and complex deposits, the following features are noticeable. Coal deposits in
pattern are coordinated with a deep fault revealed over the granulite surface (Fig. 15). This feature
is testimony to the influence of hypogene energy factors on the formation and development of the
Earths crust structure and coal deposits. Judging from the pattern of iron ore and complex deposits
and peculiarities of the Earths crust inner structure (Fig. 15), they are also inclined to deep faults.
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CONCLUSIONS
As of now, more than 5 000 km regional seismic profiles have been measured with DSS
method on the territory of the Altai-Sayany Region. Conventional and seismic-tomography
processing and interpretation of gathered data have resulted in geologic-geophysical sections of the
Earths crust and structure schemes over the surfaces of consolidated crust, granulitic and basic
rocks as well as Moho discontinuity.


Fig. 15. Distribution of useful minerals over the ASR granulitic layer surface
1 the border of the Russian Federation; 2 depth contours to the conventional surface of the granulitic
layer of 6.4 km/s; 3 rupture dislocations; 4 coal deposits; 5 complex deposits

The Altai-Sayany folded region is clearly recognized in seismic-tomography sections and
schemes by the pattern of the earths crust thickening and extreme behavior of deposits of basic and
granulitic compositions. The Earths crust of the Altai-Sayany Region is intensively broken by
deep faults into blocks. Heterogeneities of mechanical-and-physical properties of the medium
largely dictate where most of the known major earthquakes are confined to. The analyzed results
lend essential support to this fact as the strongest earthquakes of the Altai-Sayan folded region are
confined to block boundaries with different values of the parameter under consideration. It seems
likely that media occurring between homogeneous (in elastic properties) blocks are less firm (more
dislocated by regional and local faults), which promotes the aftershock process accompanied by
liberation of the energy accumulated in the Earths crust. Complex and coal deposits are mainly
linked with deep faults in the Earths crust which may have played the role of channels for deep
flows of energy and fluids forming hard mineral deposits.
REFERENCES:
1. Mishenkina Z.., Sheludko I.F., and Krylov S.V. [1993] The use of linearized statement of inverse travel
time problem for two-dimensional fields of times t (x.l) of diving waves. In: Numerical techniques in
seismic investigations. Novosibirsk, Nauka, 140-152.
2. Goldin S.V., Seleznev V.S., Emanov .F. The Chuya earthquake and its aftershocks // Dokl. RAN, 2004,
395, 4/.
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RUSSIAN NATIONAL SYSTEM OF MONITORING GEOPHYSICAL PROCESSES AND
REAL TIME VARIATIONS THEREOF

R.I . Krivonosov
NPP GT Geofizika LLC, Russia, geofizika@npp-geofizika.ru


1. Description of the Project

NPP GT Geofizika LLC (Pyatigorsk) has designed high-output geophone-hydrophone
sensors GH-3 protected by patents [1, 2] able to determine parameters of gravity and wave fields in
boreholes, underground openings, seas, on surface, flying or moving objects. The sensors may be
used for hydrodynamic testing of wells, gravity and seismic survey, in meteorology, seismology,
navigation, medicine, for earth-quake prediction. They are capable of sensing slightest variations of
hydrodynamic pressure field in wide range of frequencies from 0 to 4500 Hz with sensitivity higher
than that of modern gravimeters, seismic detectors, seismographs.
Substantial Earth deformation resulting from gravity waves acting upon earth surface and
water medium, appearance of low-frequency noise (less than 0.001 Hz) in rocks are signs of
forthcoming earthquake. There are correlations between variations of gravity, geohydrodynamic
pressure and Earth magnetic fields which are to be used for prediction of oncoming earthquakes
and location thereof. At the Russian National Exhibition in Azerbaijan (2006) NPP GT
Geofizika LLC reported on the expediency of creating Russian National System of advance
warning people about oncoming earth-quake (RNS AWP) based on the Geophone-hydrophone
sensor GH-3 and Real Time Space-Time System (RT STS). The whole system was called Russian
National System of Monitoring Geophysical Processes and Real Time Variations thereof (RNS
MGP).
During the Exhibition joint operation agreements were concluded with International Seismic
Risk and Earthquake Resistant Construction Commission of International Academy of Sciences,
the International EUTRASIA PACIFIC UNINET Organization (Austria) and Research Institute for
Earthquake Prediction and Study of the International Academy of Sciences (Azerbaijan). For
financing the problem it was proposed to involve not only state but also international funds.
based on the Geophone-Hydrophone GH-3 sensor.
Federal State Unitary Enterprise Moscow Energetic Institute Special Design Office (FGUP
OKB MEI) of Roscosmos and NPP GT Geofizika LLC (Pyatigorsk) have developed the RNS
MGP pilot project including RNS OWP and RT STS as addition to the GLONASS system.
RT STS pilot project is to be carried out by FGUP OKB MEI of Roscosmos (Moscow).
Later on scientists and specialized organizations from foreign countries (Azerbaijan, Ukraine,
Austria, Turkey, etc.) located in the zone of Alpic-Himalayan seismic belt will be involved into the
work. To this end, Geofizika Research Centre (Geofizika RC) shall be established on the
territory of Caucasian Mineral Waters (CMW). Geofizika RC tasks are: formation of RNS MGP
regional sub-system, carrying out international researches and experimental development to supply
the above countries with high-accuracy space-time measurements, development of the newest
technologies for oil-and-gas industry, geophysics, seismology, earthquake prediction, navigation
and medicine. Special attention is paid to realization of the RNS AWP project the most actual
problem for Nothern Caucasus and adjoining countries, especially for Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan,
Armenia, Georgia.
In 2006 NPP GT Geofizika LLC took part in talks on creating Regional RT STS on
Turkey territory via Turkish company TUSKON. The talks were conducted with the mayor of
Kkekmece, the largest Istanbul district most suffered from earthquake in 1999.
Regional observation posts shall be created in Azerbaijan (Binagady), in Russia (CMW,
Kracnodar territory), Ukraine (Crimea), Turkey (Istanbul).
The posts are to be interconnected in the RT STS Global telescope (fig. 1) system which is to
be used for simultaneous any (including geological and logging) data acquisition and transmission
for centralized real time processing.
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Within the pilot project Research Centre Geofizika shall be designed and built in the
health-resort zone of Pyatigorsk; regional RT STS shall be built with radio telescope at the top the
Mashuk Mountain (fig. 2) and subsurface seismologic stations round it and the House for
Scientists and Specialists of Foreign Countries shall be constructed. The House is expected to
provide capabilities of training, conducting conferences, spa cure, rest and residence for scientists
and specialists according to European standards.
Within the RNS MGP project NPP GT Geofizika LLC has already been accomplishing the
following tasks for monitoring development of oil and gas deposits.
1. Determination of formation oil and gas saturation factor

(S), accurate location of


water-oil contact (WOC) or of gas-oil contact (GOC) in producing and observation wells of oil and
gas fields using Electric Logging through Steel Casing EKOS-31-7(7M) technology.
2. Basing on GH-3 Geophone-Hydrophone sensor:
a) Control of running wells production (differential production rate, behind-the-casing cross-
flow) under Influx Profile Locator technology (IPL-31);
b) Control of hydrocarbon accumulation pattern efficiency, tracing of formation hydraulic
breakdown and injection frontal advance in horizontal plane.




Fig. 1. Global Telescope


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Fig. 2. Design Location of Global Telescope Antennas on Russia Territory at th top) and on Mashuk
Mountain with Additional Cosmic Communication Radio Telescope on Geofizika RC Building
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2. RUSSIAN FEDERATION REAL-TIME SPACE-TIME SYSTEM

Real-Time Space-Time System is a synthesized coherent measurement system for
measuring state vector parameters in physical fields of all kinds including gravity, wave and
magnetic fields in real-time mode at global, local and user measurement levels.

Space-Time Radio Metering System
- Global synthesized coherent space-time radio metering system is a global radio telescope (see
fig. 1) with unfilled aperture equivalent to synthesized phased array antenna and a central
synchronizer of RT STS.
Geophysical Subsystem
- It serves to determine parameters of gravity and wave fields on the Earth surface, in aero
space, sea, boreholes, when set on stationary, flying or movable objects.
- At every functional level of RT STS the elements of the radio system and of the geophysical
subsystem are interconnected at mechanical and electric interfaces level.
- Radio system is a geometric frame and a synchronized time and space atomic scale for
geophysical subsystem.
- Collocation is realized at measurement data level in unified space-time basis.
-
RT STS Functionality
1. Creation, maintenance and distribution:
- of the reference global network for real-time measuring parameters of physical and wave
fields and determining sources thereof including gravity, magnetic and electric fields;
- of the reference ground-space high-accuracy time-and-frequency synchronization network
based on associated universal-time scales (UT1), coordinated atomic-time scale (UTC) and
global atomic-time scale RT STS of highest-accuracy.
2. Calibration and metrological control to provide uniformity of global, regional and local space-
time and physical measurements.

SPACE-TI ME REFERENCE SYSTEM

1. Reference STS as the base of global radio telescope with unfilled aperture (Stratum 0)
comprising: full-circle radio telescopes 12 70 meters in diameter equipped with atomic
time-and-F1-75 frequency scale keepers connected via data transmission optical channels
with a central synchronizer.
2. STS application subsystem (Stratum 1) with full-circle radio telescopes 6 12 m in
diameter; atomic time- and-F1-75 frequency scale keepers connected via optical channels of
data transmission with a central synchronizer and with a Centre for control, acquisition,
processing and analysis of space-time measurements in real time.
The reference and application STS subsystems are plug-compatible and can be functionally
combined.
3. The STS subsystem of the second accuracy level (Stratum 2) consisting of minimum 96
mobile 3-m full-circle antennas with F1-76 class frequency hydrogen standards,
synchronizers for stand-alone processing of the measurements and connected via optical and
other channels with STS stations of the highest accuracy subsystems (Stratum 0) or with
Centre for control, acquisition, processing and analysis of space-time measurements in
control-calibration mode.
4. The second accuracy level STS subsystem (Stratum 2) with small diameter (3 m) mobile
radio telescopes equipped with satellite communication and functionally connected to STS
stations of Stratum 0 and Stratum 1 subsystems in compound-interferometer mode.

Subsystem for geophysical measurements built into all instruments of all RT STS
subsystems (gravimeters, accelerometers and magnetometers).

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Reference Real-Time Space-Time System

In OKB MEI antennas were developed designed to be used in Pyatigorsk and South-West
regions of Russia.


Fig. 3. Full-circle antenna -57, 12 meters in diameter.
I t will be placed on Mashuk mountain


Geophysical Subsystem Contribution and Fields of Application:
- Geophysical investigations
- Seismic prospecting (ground, sea)
- Gravity prospecting (ground, sea, aerial)
- Seismology (registration of earthquakes, landslides, avalanches)
- Meteorology
- Navigation motor, aeronautical and missile equipment
- Devices for determination of flying vehicle orientation in the Earth gravity field, devices for
guidance to moving surface, subsurface, underwater and flying objects, in guided underwater
and ground mines and shells, devices for recognition by oscillation spectrum of moving
objects (a man, a dog, a motor car, a tank, a submarine, etc.) when protecting military and civil
units (buildings, airports, frontiers), oil-and-gas pipe lines, atomic electro stations.
- Civil defense, ESM: earthquake alerting devices (including those of individual type), intrusion
protection devices, thermal location of fires, etc.
- Medicine. For early detection of slowly progressing diseases (cancer, diabetes, etc.)

RT STS Geophysical Subsystem Configuration

RT STS geophysical subsystem is formed of the Geophone-hydrophone sensors and
Ferrosonde sensor (of 0.1 nT sensitivity) whose design and technical characteristics are to be
appreciated as a break through in the field of borehole and ground seismic prospecting, gravimetry,
monitoring of oil, gas and other minerals field development, dynamics control of the Earth
geophysical fields.
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3. Main Directions of Global Positioning Means Employment in Civil Sphere:
- Higher geodesy and geodynamics: determination of the Earth shape and sizes, surface
deformation thereof, tectonic movement of continental platforms, earthquake prediction and so
on;
- Mapping, geodetic and air photography, cadastral survey, design of engineering structures;
geoinformation systems (GIS) comprising electronic versions of various locality information;
- Monitoring of engineering structure and other natural objects deformation to prevent man-
caused catastrophes;
- High-accuracy time standard verification of all world laboratories; synchronization of
communication and energetic systems providing reliable functioning thereof and minimizing
energy loss;
- Air navigation: en-route flight (route tracking and imaging, determination of distances to a
destination station and estimation of arrival time to a destination airport); approach landing
(here first of all validity of navigation information and failure detection are demanded by
means of the system integrity control);
- Navigation of sea and river crafts, prevention of accident sailing in narrow water zones;
monitoring of fishing fleets, quoting and control of sea fishery; evaluation of bottom contour
and water way clearing; following port functioning capacity, cargo passage costal control
service;
- Navigation in surface conditions and dispatching services of motor tracking; optimal routing,
locating of a truck, control of cargo integrity and due-time arrival, etc.
- On railway transport to improve safety, dispatching service effectiveness, optimization of
train driving.
- Hydrographic applications: building marine structures, pipelining, construction of offshore oil
production platforms, seismologic survey of sea bottom;
- Popular applications of residential use RT STS.

4. Practical Proposals and Variants of Gaining Profit

1. Standardization of apparatus, devices and means to provide navigation on land, sea and space;
to insure radio communication; to provide space movement control of all material and
nonmaterial resources, as well as movement control of animate forces and technical equipment
on monitored territory with accuracy of about 1 cm on land and 50 cm in water.
Approximate need in the aforesaid means and equipment will be about 50 million items for two
years and then about 5 million items per year in Russia only.
2. Licensing of plants manufacturing means of radio communication, navigation,
telecommunication, synchronization, communication and diffusion of high-accuracy time and
frequency scales on Russia territory using new standard.
3. Protection of information in synchronous data transmission nets based on use of high-accuracy
time marker, delay of diffusion control instead of electronic signature and cryptographic
protection system.
Radio region is strictly divided into sub-regions for different applications according to
decision of international radio communication union.
Working-frequency ranges are the subject of trading and concession at interstate level and at
regional communication operator level. Time-frequency radio channelizing due to improving
synchronous systems performance is to bring in unpredictable return.
Improvement of current optical main channel and communication centers performance by
improving synchronization and channelizing has no restrictions. It is also unpredictable profit.
Today financial yearly demand of cosmic sector to ensure normal systematic operation, but
with accuracy an order worse than the proposed variant, is 350 500 million dollars a year.
When Russia turns to its own time and frequency standard, anti-missile defense (AMD) tasks
would be solved in more efficient and effective way which is to bring unrestricted return depending
on tasks and requirements of the state.
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In case of complete STS construction it is possible to set up mode of regional and central
control of all moving in space vital activity and life support elements during peace and war (all
produced weapon including tabled one, missiles, shells, etc.).
It may be of great use in lowering terrorism and other negative society occurrences.
Similar to GPS sales volume of RT STS signals receivers may reach 4.7 milliard dollars in
motor, 3.8 milliard dollars in tourist businesses and more than 6 milliard dollars in cartography and
cargo transportation spheres.

REFERENCES:

1. Lisov V.N., Krivonosov R.I., Deinega G.. Working Fluid of Electrolytic Resistive Transducer. RF
Patent No. 2172932. Filed 14.09.2000. Patentee: R.I. Krivonosov.
2. Krivonosov R.I., Deinega G.., shik .S. Method and Apparatus for Gravity and Wave Fields
Parameters Determination. RF Patent No. 2260199. Filed 04.08.2003. Patentee R.I. Krivonosov.




THE GEOECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF NATURAL ARSENIC POISONING OF
DRINKING WATER IN DAGHESTAN REPUBLIC

T.O. Abdulmutalimova
1
, B.A. Revich
2
1
Institute of Geology of the Daghestan Centre of Science of the Russian Academy of Science,
Russia, tamila4@mail.ru
2
Center for Demography and Human Ecology of the Institute for Forecasting of
the Russian Academy of Science, Russia

Worldwide chronic arsenic toxity has become a human health threat. Evidence for elevated
arsenic concentrations in groundwater of geologic origin in aquifers of fluvial and deltaic river
delta formations has been increasing over the past 20-30 years in different parts of the world (1).
Although the calamity of arsenic exposure in Bangladesh may have been the most well-known
endemic because of the magnitude of the exposure (2, 3), many other regions in the world have
well-documented high level arsenic concentration in drinking water. This documentation has been
possible thanks to geological and geochemical researches that had been made in these countries.
The problem of arsenic poisoning of drinking water is also actual in Daghestan republic. The
Daghestan Republic is one of the water resources rich regions of the Russian Federation. The water
resources are presented by surface water and groundwater.
The ground hydrosphere consists of hidrogeological basins and massives: aqueous massives
of Shale Daghestan, karsted fracturing massives of Limestone Daghestan, basins of thermomineral
waters of Foreland Daghestan, the North Daghestan Artesian Basin (NDAB).
In several regions of Daghestan republic, there is high arsenic contamination in groundwater.
In north districts drinking water contain arsenic as a result of geochemical characteristics of the
land, as well as in south districts causing a non-occupational exposure. The populations in this
region use groundwater as drinking water and obtain it from the naturally contaminated sources.
This region is known as having elevated arsenic levels of water dating back from the 1970s. And
as a result, more than 300 thousands of people are exposed to arsenic via drinking water.
Vchese poisoning districts are within NDAB, which is the part of huge East-Ciscaucasian
synclinal depression. It consists of Pliocene-Pleistocenesediments with magnitude 3001200
meters. The climate of this territory is arid, the lowland soils are normal light chestnut. In
hydromorphic landscapes there are meadow and meadow-chestnut soils. In the sea sediments (in
the east part of the lowland) there are saline soils. The scientists have different opinions about
arsenic genesis in groundwater. But there is the most evident hypothesis about possible regional
arsenic coming with infiltration water after its contact with arseniccontained rocks (4). As we
know, arsenic minerals exist in the environment principally as sulfides, oxides, and phosphates.
Arsenic occurs as a constituent in more than 200 minerals, although it primarily exists as
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arsenopyrite and as a constituent in several other sulfide minerals. Mechanisms by which arsenic is
released from minerals are varied and accounted for by many (bio) geochemical processes:
oxidation of arsenic-bearing sulfides, desorption from oxides and hydroxides, reductive dissolution,
evaporative concentration, leaching from sulfides by carbonate, and microbial mobilization. The
introduction of arsenic into drinking water can occur as a result of its natural geological presence in
local bedrock. Significant natural contamination of surface waters and soil can arise when arsenic
rich geothermal fluids come into contact with surface waters. Arsenic enrichment also takes place
in geothermally active areas. Globally, millions of people are at risk for the adverse effects of
arsenic exposure. The majority of harmful arsenic exposure comes from drinking water from wells
drilled through arsenic-bearing sediments. This drinking water contains primarily inorganic arsenic,
which is more acutely toxic than the organic form. Inorganic arsenic is an established human
carcinogen. Chronic arsenic exposure places people at risk for a host of adverse health effects, from
skin and internal cancers (of the bladder, kidney, liver, lung, colon, uterus, prostate and stomach) to
diabetes mellitus and vascular, reproductive, developmental, and neurological effects. Studies have
shown arsenic to be a potent endocrine disruptor, altering hormone-mediated cell signaling at
extremely low concentrations. Skin lesions, notably hyperkeratosis, or thickening of the skin, and
both hypo- and hyperpigmentation are the most common outward sign of chronic arsenic exposure,
though many dermatologic symptoms are thought to be mediated by nutritional factors. So, the
populationin northern Daghestan is arsenic exposed because poisoning groundwater is an
important and often the only source of drinking water here they have to use. For our research we
took water samples from artesian wells in the biggest villages of the northern Daghestan (Fig.1).





Table 1. Districts with tube-wells contained high levels of arsenic in drinking water

0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
Arsenic contamination in drinking water of NDAB, mg/L.
Arsenic contamination
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Fig.1.

Methods
The arsenic levels were measured by the method of atomic absorption spectrometry in 43
water samples, collected from 2 towns and 19 settlements. Samples of drinking water were
collected in acid-washed 50-mL plastic bottles from the study subjects districts and 1mL of
concentrated nitric acid was added for preservation and then transported to laboratory for analysis
according to the international standard ISO-5666/1.

Results

The range of arsenic concentrations were from 0,011-0,229 mg/l. The minimum of arsenic
concentration (0,011 mg/l) was in Lvovskij 1 and the maximum (0,229 mg/l) is in Kochubej.
More than 90% of the water samples had levels above the current national standard of 0,05 mg/l
and 100% - above WHO standard of 0,01 mg/l (Tab.1).
Exposure to arsenic can cause many health problems. Inhalation of arsenic causes scin
cancer, in addition to other characteristic skin alterations such as keratosis and hyperpigmentation
(5). Arsenic exposure can also increase the risk of developing lung, bladder, kidney and liver
cancers (6, 7).
In general, research need to be continued and pursued to confirm or reject some of the
more hypotheses of possible regional arsenic poisoning of drinking water.
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REFERENCES:
1. Smedley P.L., Kinninburgh D.G. 2002. A review of the source, behavior and distribution of arsenic in
natural waters. ApplGeohem 17:517 568.
2. British Geological Survey and Department of Public Health Engineering of Bangladesh. 2001. Arsenic
contamination of groundwater in Bangladesh. Keyworth, UK: British Geological Survey.
3. Zheng Y., Stute M., van Geen A., Gavrieli I., Dhar R., Simpson H.J., et al. 2004. Redox control of arsenic
mobilization in Bangladesh groundwater. ApplGeohem 19(2):201 214.
4. Kurbanov M.K. Gidrodeological program Spring groundwater resources of the Thersko-Kumsky
artesian basin and ways its rational using, preventing the process of its pollution and exhaustion during
2003-2008 years// The materials of the scientific conference of the Institute of Geology of the Daghestan
Centre of Science of the Russian Science Academy, 2003.
5. IARC. Arsenic and arsenic compounds. In: IARC monographs on the evaluation of the carcinogenic risk
of chemicals to man, vol 23. Some metals and metallic compounds. Lyon: International Agency for
research on Cancer, 1980; 39 141.
6. Bates M.N., Smith A.H., Hopenhayn Rich C. Arsenic ingestion and internal cancers: a review. Am J
Epidemiol 135: 462-476 (1992).
7. Chen C.-J., Chen C.W., Wu M.-M., Kuo T.-L. Cancer potential in liver, lung, bladder and kidney due to
ingested inorganic arsenic in drinking water. Br J Cancer 66: 88-892 (1992).



PRE-ALPINE GEODYNAMICS OF THE CAUCASUS, MULTISTAGE REGIONAL
METAMORPHISM AND GRANITOID MAGMATISM


I .P. Gamkrelidze, D.M. Shengelia, T.N. Tsutsunava
A. Janelidze Institute of Geology of Tbilisi State University, Georgia
igamkrelidze@yahoo.com, d_shenge@yahoo.com, tsutsunava@yahoo.com

The Caucasus represents a complicated polycyclic geological structure involving mountain
foldsystems of the Greater and Lesser Caucasus and adjacent foredeeps and intermountain troughs.
Paleomagnetic and paleokinematic, as well as traditional geological data (character of
sedimentation and magmatism, geology and age of ophiolites, paleoclimatic and paleogeographic
data) indicate that within the oceanic area of Tethys (with a typical oceanic crust), which separates
the Afro-Arabian and Eurasian continental plates, in geological past relatively small continental or
subcontinental plates (terranes) were situated, having various geodynamic nature and characterized
by specific lithologic-stratigraphic section and magmatic, metamorphic and structural features.
During the Late Precambrian, Paleozoic and Early Mesozoic these terranes underwent horizontal
displacement in different directions within the oceanic area of Proto-Paleo-and Mesotethys
(Neotethys) and as a result of Variscan, Early Kimmerian, Bathonian and Austrian orogeny they
underwent mutual accretion and ultimately joined the Eurasian continent. The Greater Caucasian,
Black Sea-Central Transcaucasian, Baiburt-Sevanian and Iran-Afghanian terranes are identified in
the Caucasian segment of the Mediterranean mobile belt, which in geological past represented
island arcs or microcontinents Fig. 1 [1]. In terms of modern structure, they represent
accretionary terranes of the first order separated by trustworthy or supposed ophiolite sutures of
different age. Terranes of the first order, in their turn, consist of great number of subterranes
delimited as a rule by deep faults or regional thrusts.
They were considered earlier as separate tectonic units (zones) of the Caucasus. Besides, in
many places of the Caucasian region there are ophiolite terranes - relicts of the oceanic crust of
small or large oceanic basins overthrust (obducted) from the above-mentioned ophiolite sutures. It
should be especially noted that the Earth's crust of the Caucasus is tectonically layered. [2-5].
Similar tectonic layering has recently been reported from many regions of the world. It has also
been traced throughout the whole central segment of the Mediterranean mobile belt. One of the
authors of this paper (I. Gamkrelidze) had for a long time (1976-1990) been in a position to
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investigate the nappe structures of the Mediterranean belt and to prove the existence of deep-seated
nappes in the basement of the Alps, Western and Central East Carpathians, northern Apusenides,
Bohemian massif, Rhodopian crystallinicum, Pannonian basin, Transcaucasian massif and
crystalline core of the Greater Caucasus [1, 6]. Fig.2. At the same time, this layering was not
given due regard in the solution of some geological problems, including petrogenetic modelling, in
particular, that of the genesis of Caucasian metamorphites and granitoids.


Fig.1. Tectonic zoning of the Caucasus on the basis of the terrane analysis [1] with additions
I. Part of Scythian platform involved in Neogene time into rising of the Greater Caucasus:
I
1
- Forerange zone, I
2
- Bechasyn zone, I
3
- zone of North Caucasian monocline; Accretionary terranes of
the first order and subterranes: II - Greater Caucasian terrane (island arc); III - Black Sea-Central
Transcaucasian terrane (microcontinent). Subterranes: III1 - Chkhalta-Laila, III
2
- Kazbegi-Tphan,
III
3
- Mestia-Dibrar, III
4
- Novorosiisk-Lazarevskoe, III
5
- Gagra-Java, III
6
- Dzirula, III
7
- Adjara-Trialeti,
III
8
- Artvin-Bolnisi, III
9
- Middle and lower Kura; IV - Baiburt-Sevanian terrane (island arc). Subterranes:
IV 1 - Somkhit-Karabakh, IV
2
- Sevan-Akera, IV
3
- Kafan, IV
4
-Talysh; V - Iran-Afghanian terrane
(microcontinent). Subterranes: V1 - Miskhan-Zangezur, V
2
-Erevan-Ordubad, V
3
- Araks. 1-4 - ophiolite
sutures, marking the location of small and large oceanic basins: 1 - of Early? - Middle Paleozoic age, 2 - of
Late Precambrian - Paleozoic age, 3 - of Late Precambrian-Early Mesozoic age, 4 - Mesozoic age; 5 -
ophiolite terranes (obduction plates): 5
a
- Late Precambrian age, 5
b
- Paleozoic age,
5
c
- Mesozoic age; 6 - borders of subterranes (deep faults or regional thrusts); 7 - detached cover nappes;
8 - exposures of pre-Alpine crystalline basement. Lettered separate exposures: Kb - Kuban, Mk - Malka,
Bl - Blib, P - Pass subzone of the Main range zone of the Greater Caucasus, E - Elbrus subzone of the Main
range zone, E(D) - Dariali exposure of the Elbrus subzone, Dz - Dzirula, Khr -Khrami, Lk - Loki,
Akh - Akhum, Ar - Asrikchai, Ts - Tsakhkunyats.Letters in circles - Ophiolite terranes (obduction plates): -
Fr - Forerange zone, K - Klich, D - Dzirula, SA - Sevan-Akera, V - Vedi.


Just in such an aspect, on the basis of plate tectonic theory and the conception of tectonic
layering of the lithosphere, regional metamorphism and granite formation processes are considered
in the paper. Suitable natural laboratory, accessible in the Caucasus, provides a basis for the
investigation of likely problems.
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Fig. 2. Principle scheme of pre-Alpine structure of the contemporary Greater Caucasus
1 Upper Paleozoic molassic deposits (neo-autochthon); 2 fragments of oceanic crust in supposed suture
zones and ophiolite allochthons (figures in circles ophiolite nappes: Kl-Klichi and also Kassar, Damkhruts
plates and their analogies in the Elbrus subzone and the Forerange zones, M-Marukha, Mk-Malka, );
3-11 tectonic nappes of Precambrian and Paleozoic crystalline rocks and Paleozoic volcanogenic
sedimentary deposits : 3 Lakhran nappe; 4 - Urlesh nappe; 5 Khasaut nappe; 6 Shaukol nappe;
7 Lashtrak overthrust plate (part of the Atsgara nappe); 8 Kisilkol nappe; 9 Tokhan nappe;
10 Macera nappe and its analogs in the Forerange zone, as a member of Atsgara nappe, and in the Pass
subzone of the Greater Caucasus (part of the Buulgen complex; 11 Dizi nappe; 12-16 autochthonous and
parautochthonous crystalline complexes: 12 bechasin, chegem and verkhnekuban suites of the Bechasin
zone; 13 Blib complex of the Forerange zone (balkan and armov suites) (Precamrian); 14 infrastructure
of the Elbrus subzone of the Main Range zone (Precambrian); 15 gvandra suite of the Buulgen complex
and its analogs in the Forerange zone in Atsgara nappe in the Elbrus subzone and in the Macera nappe
(Upper Proterozoic); 16 gneiss-migmatite complex of the Black-sea-Central Transcaucasian terrane
(Precambrian); 17 faults; 18-20 sole of tectonic nappes: 18 of Late Baikalian, 19 of Variscan
(Saurian), 20 of Early cimmerian; 21-30 granitoid complexes: 21 Precambrian quartz-diorite
orthogneisses of the Dzirula massif, 22 Late Variscan microcline granites in all zones of the Greater
Caucasus, 23 Late Baikalian plagiogranites of the pass subsone of the Greater Caucasus, 24 Bretonian
or pre-Variscan gabbro-diorite-quartz-diorites of the Pass subzone, 25 Late Variscan (Sudetic) quartz-
diorites and plagiogranites of the Pass subzone, 26 Late Baikalian granodiorite orthogneisses of the Elbrus
subzone of the Greater Caucasus, 27 Bretonian plagiogranites and granodiorites of the Elbrus subzone,
28 Late Caledonian plagiogranites and plagiogneisses of the Forerange zone, 29 Bretonian quartz-
diorite-tonalite-trondhjemites, 30 Early Caledonian plagiogranite-granodiorite orthogneisses of the
Bechasyn zone. Ss Southern slope zone, Ps Pass subzone of the Greater Caucasus, El Elbrus subzone of
the Greater Caucasus, Fr Forerange subzone, Bch Bechasyn zone.


Paleotectonic Reconstructions and Geodynamic Settings of Metamorphic and
Granitoid Complexes Formation
Magmatism and metamorphism of different type, being a reflection of thermobaric field
variation in the external shells of the Earth, represent direct consequence of geodynamic settings in
various structural units of the Earth's crust and lithosphere. A model revealing tectonic settings of
realization of magmatism and metamorphism and their connection with other endogenic processes
participating in the formation of the Earth's crust can be constructed exactly on the geodynamic
basis [4]. The most important for reconstruction of geodynamic settings is to establish the nature
and location of paleooceanic basins. The existence of oceanic realm in the area of the
Mediterranian belt in Neoproterozoic is shown by a number of various global reconstructions. The
birth of the Prototethys at that time is also confirmed by the existence of ophiolites of Late
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Precambrian age not only in its southern periphery (the Anti-Atlas, the Arabian-Nubian shield, the
Loki, Murguz and Tsakhkunyats massifs), but also in the northern periphery of the belt (the Alps,
Bohemian and Dzirula massifs).
The newest plate tectonic reconstructions are made at the global scale [7], as well as for
Variscan-Alpine orogeny [8].


Fig. 3. Early Ordovician reconstruction after G. Stampfli and G. Borel (2002).
Broken line - place of the opening of the future Paleotethys. A-Apula, DH-Dinarides, He-Elinides,
Mn-Menderes, Ta-Tavrian Ridge, SS-Samandjan-Sirdjan, Al-Elbrus, LT-Lut-Tabas, cA-Central Afghanistan


For global plate tectonic reconstructions [7] integrated data on dynamic plate boundaries,
ocean spreading rates, restored synthetic oceanic isochrones and major tectonic and magmatic
events were used [7]. According to these reconstructions at the beginning of Ordovician (~ 490 Ma.
ago), the Prototethys was located in the West between Baltica and Gondwana land and in the East
between Gondwana and the so-called Serindia terrane. Later, in Silurian time, on the periphery of
the Gondwana land, detachment of the Han superterrane and generation of a narrow rift zone of the
Paleotethys ocean took place. Paleotethys location coincides with our supposition about its location
in the Caucasian region. In particular, southern terranes of the Caucasian segment of the
Mediterranian belt (Iran-Afghanian and Baiburt-Sevanian) are located on the northern periphery of
the Gondwana land, but northern ones (Black Sea-Central Transcaucasian and Greater Caucasian)
are located in the southern periphery of Laurussia Fig. 4.
This ocean reached the maximum width at the end of Carboniferous and began shortening in
Permian (-280-250 Ma. ago). At the rear of the Paleotethys, in the northern periphery of the
Gondwana land, Cimmerian superterrane detachment resulted in the generation of the main axis of
Neotethys. The Lesser Caucasian bay of this ocean arose later within the Eurasian continent see
Fig. 4, which also completely corresponds to our conception [2, 3, 6].
Geological information and paleomagnetic data referring to separate regions are not
completely applied in these global reconstructions. This has been indicated by the following in the
Caucasian region: disregarding the existence of some exposures of Late Precambrian - Paleozoic
ophiolites and paleomagnetic data indicated seemingly inheriting the development of the
Paleotethys from Prototethys and preserving the relict oceanic basin up to the Middle Jurassic. For
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this reason the opening line of the future Paleotethys is unnaturally drawn on the northernmost
edge of Gondwana see Fig. 3. Therefore, in making the palinspastic sections of the Caucasus
from the above-mentioned global paleoreconstructions we have used the following data:
approximate size of oceans at separate stages of their development, location of big continental
masses in the space and absorption age of middle oceanic ridge of the Paleotethys in the subduction
zone. Principal attention was paid to specific geological (nature of magmatism, peculiarities of
lithologic-stratigraphical section, geology and age of ophiolites), as well as to available
paleomagnetic data for the Caucasian region. The location of the suture line of the Paleotethys
Ocean in the Caucasus has been debated for a long time. According to I. Gamkrelidze [4], this line
sits between the Black Sea-Central Transcaucasian and Baiburt-Sevanian terranes, i.e. along the
northern periphery of the contemporary Somkhit-Karabakh subterrane see Fig. 1,4. This is
proved by geological and paleomagnetic data, which correspond to criteria of paleomagnetic
reliability. The paleomagnetic data obtained for Carboniferous volcanites of the Dzirula and
Khrami massifs of Black Sea Central Transcaucasian terrane with paleolatitude - 12-13 n.l. is
close to the paleolatitude of the southern periphery of the Eastern-European continent in the Late
Paleozoic (8-9 n.l.), whereas the paleolatitude of rocks of the same age from Daralagez (South
Armenia) and Elburs is 22 s.l. [9]. Hence, there is quite a large gap taken up by the ocean. This
gap, inherited from the Paleozoic, is also preserved here in Triassic and Early-Middle Jurassic. In
particular, on the one hand, paleolatitudes of Early-Middle Jurassic rocks of the Loki massif region
of the Somkhit-Karabakh zone are 22 n.l., and on the other hand, paleolatitudes of rocks of the
same age of the Dzirula massif are 27-29 n.l. [9]. This fact shows that these two regions in Early-
Middle Jurassic were separated from each other by 6-7 see Fig. 4. At the same time these two
regions, according to their geological structure, have very different geological history in Paleozoic
and Mesozoic. In particular, the Somkhit-Karabakh zone basement age by all data is purely
Variscan, in contrast to the northern part of the Transcaucasian massif and the Greater Caucasus
with Grenville-Baikalian core. In the Early-Middle Jurassic, contemporary Artvin-Bolnisi and
Adjara-Trialeti zones (subterranes) were represented by high-eroded land, but in the south within
the Somkhit-Karabakh zone in the Middle-Late Jurassic, calc-alkaline volcanic series accumulated
rather intensively. If these reasonings are correct, it can be supposed that Proto-Paleotethys was
developing during the Early Mesozoic, as well, and was closed only in Middle Jurassic (Bathonian)
orogeny. In favor of such assumption we refer to: the existence of serpentinite melange in the east-
ern periphery of the Loki massif (very close to the supposed ophiolite suture), transgressively
overlain by Late Jurasic turbidite-olisostrome suite and data about ophiolites of Northern Anatolia
that directly follows the supposed ophiolite suture, where the number of geologic,
paleobiogeographic and paleofloristical data also indicate the existence of the oceanic basin of the
Paleotethys developing in Early Mesozoic, as well. The existence of Paleozoic or older oceanic
basins is supposed as being in the area of the contemporary Greater Caucasus. It is confirmed by
the Paleozoic ophiolites in the Fore Range zone and the Klich, Kassar and Damkhurts ophiolitic
sheets and their analogues in the Greater Caucasus Main Range zone see Fig. 2,4. The location of
this oceanic basin (or basins?) is debatable. Data on magnetic anomalies indicating spreading of the
ophiolite belt of the Northern Caucasus show that side by side with oceanic basin, located to the
south from the contemporary Main Range zone, in Early and Middle Paleozoic between the
contemporary Fore Range and Main Range zones another, the so-called Arkhiz oceanic basin was
located representing the "motherland" of ophiolite nappes of the Fore Range zone. With the con-
sideration of zircon age of the Buulgen complex amphibo-lites (60020 Ma), the existence of N-
MORB type rocks in composition of Klich, Kassar and Damkhurts ophiolitic sheets, as well as
paleomagnetic data, can be assumed, that the Southern Slope oceanic basin of the Greater Caucasus
was laid in Late Precambrian as relatively small spreading basin. As a relict of this basin, most part
of which was "absorbed" in the subduction zone along the southern edge of the Greater Caucasian
island arc, Paleozoic-Triassic deposits of dizi series can be considered to be formed on the southern
passive margin of this ocean under conditions of continental slope [4].


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Fig. 4. Schematic palinspastic profiles of the Caucasian segment of the Mediterranean mobile belt for:
I . Late Precambrian (Neoproterozoic), I I . Late Cambrian, II I . Devonian, I V. Early and Middle Carbon,
V.Late Triassic (vertical scale is exaggerated approximately for the five times)
1-continental crust, 2-subcontinental crust, 3-oceanic crust and obducted ophiolites, 4-upper mantle,
5-streams of heat, fluids and magmatic melts in mantle, 6-Middle oceanic ridge, 7-subduction zones,
8- inactive subduction zones, 9-surfaces of tectonic layering of the Earths crust. Paleooceanic basins: PT
Proto-Paleotethys, Ss of the Southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, Akh Arkhis, MT Mesotethys.
Continental plates: Gn Gondvana, Bl Baltica, La Laurussia, Ar Arabia. Terranes: BC Black sea-
Central Transcaucasian microcontinent, GC Greater Caucasian island arc, IA Iran-Afghanian
microcontinent. contemporary tectonic zones: SK Somkhito-Karabakh, Fr Forerange, Bch Bechasin.


Later (apparently in Early-Middle Paleozoic) the Arkhiz basin began to develop. Judging
from the nature of the volcanic complex of the Fore Range zone ophiolite association, this basin
belonged to the marginal sea type. In Neoproterozoic and Paleozoic under suprasubduction
conditions on the peripheries of the above-mentioned large and small oceanic basins regional
metamorphism and granite formation took place. Consequently main source of thermal energy
represented frictional heat of subduction zones. But, side by side with this, certain part play also
radiogenic heat of continental crust, fluids, first of all a water, and dissipative heat being generated
at the sole of large allochthonous plates, which create temperature barriers (so called thermal
screen) hindering a transference of heat to the surface and stipulating rise of geothermal gradient
at the depth [5].
The evidence of the oldest regional metamorphism in the Caucasus can be observed in
Tsakhunyats massif of the Iran-Afghanian terrane, the lower structural stage of which is part of
Middle Proterozoic and older craton. However, within the Caucasian segment of the Alpine belt,
signs of the oldest regional metamorphism (Grenville) we can observe in the gneiss-migmatite
complex of the Dzirula massif, of the Greater Caucasus Main Range zone and, apparently, of the
Khrami massif [4]. The main stages of regional metamorphism and granite formation are bound up
with Grenville, Baikalian (Panafrican), Late Baikalian (Salairian), Early and Late Caledonian and
Variscan orogeny. They were stipulated by the functioning of subduction zones by both sides of
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Proto-Paleotethys and along the northern peripheries of comparatively small oceanic basins of the
Arkhiz and Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus [4].
Regional metamorphism, mainly of low and moderate pressure and correspondingly high
and moderate temperature, and formation of pre- and synmetamorphic granitoidic complexes of
sodium series took place in pre-Variscan time, in the northern and southern continental margins of
the Paleotethys. It should be noted that according to new data here in places heightened and high-
pressure metamorphism are observed. In the Late Baikalian orogenic phase, the same events took
place also in the northern periphery of the oceanic basin of the Southern Slope of the Greater
Caucasus. Since the Middle Paleozoic subduction began to appear also along the northern
periphery of the Arkhiz marginal sea see Fig. 4. However, the existence of the spreading zone in
the basin seems to be doubtful. Consequently, it is more accurate to use the term pseudosubduction,
which, as is generally known, means that subduction is not in direct connection with spreading
[10]. Processes of regional metamorphism with P-T conditions analogous to pre-Variscan
metamorphism are connected with Variscan orogeny. Although in the deepest, subsided parts of
metamorphic complex (the Blib autochthonous complex of the Fore Range zone) and in the sole of
the Shaukol nappe in the Bechasyn zone see Fig. 2 high baric type of metamorphism is
established. At the same time, intensive tectonic layering of the Earth's crust and formation of
granitoids, mainly of potassic series, took place. This orogeny covers a range of geological time
from the latest Devonian (Famennian) to Late Visean (about 17-18 Ma.). Due to the existence of
appointed succession of vital geological events in clearly limited time intervals, manifestation of
several orogenic phases can be assumed in the Caucasus. Specifically, with the Early Variscan
(Bretonian) orogeny (at the end of Devonian and beginning of Early Carboniferous), regional
metamorphism of the most Lower-Middle Paleozoic rocks of the Caucasus and formation of
synmetamorphic granitoids is connected. Also we assume the evidence of Saurian orogeny
(seemingly in Turneasian), which corresponds to the most important pre-Alpine time of nappe
formation in the Caucasus. And here, at last, Late Variscan orogeny with processes of intensive
granite formation is established. During the Saurian orogeny, dynamic events were the most
important, provoking, in the first place processes of tectonic layering of the Earth's crust and its
shortening, which in their turn provoked the origin of additional dissipative heat at the sole of large
allochthonous plates and melting of potassic granites in Late Variscan time. With Saurian phase
there coincides overthrusting of ocean crust fragments of Proto-Paleotethys on the Black Sea-
Central Transcaucasian microcontinent together with sedimentary rocks formed within its
continental slope (the Chorchana-Utslevi complex). In the Saurian phase, overthrusting of
metamorphic scales of the Loki massif, including Precambrian ophiolites, and ophiolites of the
Akhum and Asrikchai salients on the other, southern continental periphery of the Paleotethys took
place.
The formation of the system of N-vergent nappes of the Fore Range zone (including
ophiolite nappes), S-vergent nappes of the Khasaut synform of the Bechasyn zone, and also
overthrusting of large Macera nappe from the Pass sub-zone to the Elbrus sub-zone of the contem-
porary Main Range zone of the Greater Caucasus were connected with the same orogeny see Fig.
2. The next, Late Variscan (Sudetic) orogeny was the time of the formation of all the potassic
granites (except the Pass sub-zone poor in K granitoids) in the Caucasian region, of regressive
metamorphism of constituent rocks, and of the origin of true continental crust in it. These processes
were connected with activities of all subduction zones. At the very end of the Variscan orogeny,
extraordinary fast (instantaneous in a geological sense) exhumation of deeply subsided parts of the
Earth's crust took place. The first pebbles of microcline granites of the Main Range zone, forming
in the depth of 4-5 km, in Upper Paleozoic neoautochthonous complex of the Fore Range zone,
already appear in Middle Carboniferous (in Westphalian). The same situation can be observed in
the Dzirula crystalline massif, where the clastic material with fragments of Late Variscan
microcline granites are observed in the upper part of the neoautochthonous complex including the
period - Upper Visean - Upper Carboniferous Permian. All these show that within the Black Sea-
Central Transcaucasian and Greater Caucasian terranes exhumation of Late Variscan granites took
place mainly at the end of the same orogeny. Such instant raising of the crust and exposure of
abyssal rocks can be attributed to the summary manifestation of isostasy processes, conditioned by
high buoyancy of the consolidated crust lightened by that time, its shortenning and intensive
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erosion. An Andian type large volcanic belt existed in Late Paleozoic on the southern periphery of
Eurasian plate developing during Late Permian-Triassic. Hence, it could be assumed that at that
time the activity of the northernmost subduction (pseudosubduction) zone was preserved see Fig.
4. Later, in the Early, Middle and Late Jurassic subduction zones functioned along the northern
and southern peripheries of the relict basin of the Paleotethys, where the formation of very thick
volcanic series of calc-alkaline composition took place. Considerable tectonic movements in the
Caucasus were manifested during Early Cimmerian (Indosinian) orogeny. In the Greater Caucasus,
this phase featured overthrusting of Paleozoic dizi series to the north, as well as overthrusting of
the Elbrus sub-zone infrastructure to the south - into the Pass sub-zone. Early Cimmerian orogeny
took place in the Dzirula, Loki, Akhum and Asrikchai massifs, where it causes a folding of Early-
Middle Paleozoic metamorphites and intensive milonitization of the Dzirula massif microcline
granites. Thus, Early Cimmerian orogeny, which occurred almost in all terranes of the Caucasus,
completes the formation of the structure of its metamorphic basement. The specific of some of
regional metamorphism and granite formation processes in separate terranes of the Caucasus is
worth mentioning. In particular, all terranes of the first order (superterranes), as well as the
southern edge of the Scythian platform are characterized by manifestation of polymetamorphism
processes, though in various terranes, which differ from each other by geological structure and
history, separate stages of regional metamorphism became unequally apparent. For instance,
Grenvilian regional metamorphism is observed only in the Greater Caucasian, Black Sea-Central
Transcaucasian and Iran-Afghanian terranes, whereas the Baikalian metamorphism can be
observed only in the Scythian platform and Iran-Afghanian terranes. Late Baikalian metamorphism
took place only in the Greater Caucasian and Black Sea-Central Transcaucasian terranes.
Caledonian regional metamorphism strictly characterizes the Scythian platform and the Greater
Caucasian terrane. Early Variscan (Bretonian) metamorphism is observed almost in all terranes of
the Caucasus, excluding the Iran-Afghanian terrane, and southern edge of the Scythian platform.
Late Variscan metamorphism also comprises almost the whole Caucasus excluding the Fore-Range
zone (Scythian platform) and Iran-Afghanian terrane.
Within separate terranes, as well as in the Scythian platform, synchronously or almost
synchronously with principal stages of metamorphism (connected with the main phases of
tectogenesis), formation of pre-syn- and postmetamorphic granitoids of different type took place.
Observed occurrence at different times and diversity of endogenic activity in various terranes of the
Caucasus show the asynchronism of episodic activity of subduction zones on different sides of the
oceanic basins separating these terranes. In conclusion it should be noted that cited above data
about interrelation and the age of pre-Alpine basement constituting rocks, stages of regional
metamorphism and granite formation are recently fully corroborated by new U-Pb LA ICP MS
dating [11,12]. In particular as a result of isotope dating of zonal zircon crystals from
plagiogneisses of gneiss-migmatite complex of the Elbrus subzone of the Greater Caucasus Main
Range zone in the core of zircon crystals Neoproterozoic age 120016 Ma was fixed; it most likely
corresponds to the first stage of RM (T=700-750C, P=2.8-3.1 kbar). In intermediate zone of
crystal received Late Baikalian figures 5156 Ma answering the second stage of RM (with
T=500-620C, P=2.3-2.8 kbar) but in the external envelope of crystal Late Variscan- 3113 Ma
corresponding to regional microclinization of granitoids. In the cores of 3 zonal zircon crystals
from Late Variscan granitoid 62211, 63011 and 69012 Ma are established answering the
Baikalian endogenic processes. The concordant age of 25 local measuring in 24 zircon crystals in
the same rocks makes up 3092.5 Ma corresponding to true age of crystallization of magmatic
granite intrusions of the Elbrus subzone. Local isotope U-Pb LA-ICP-MS dating of zircons from
Late Variscan granitoids of the Greater Caucasus Pass zone in most cases (in 21 crystals) shows
Late Variscan concordant age 3252.5 Ma. In 7 crystals is received inherited age within the
limits of 658-60311 Ma, which corresponds to Baikalian age of endogenic process of mineral
formation most likely in the Lower part of Precambrian-Paleozoic Buulgen metamorphic complex
and deeper horizons. 2 determinations 514.010 and 5269 Ma possibly answer the Late
Baikalian age of retrograde RM of the Buulgen complex. Early, inherited groups of zircon with the
age 2129.013 Ma, 2160.032 Ma, 181428 Ma, 1836.016 Ma, 1009.017 Ma and 1023.018
Ma are fixed as well, which probably correspond to the age of detrital zircons. In the Dzirula
massif five age and genetic types of zircons are distinguished: 1 - detrital zircon >1200 Ma; 2
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zircon formed presumably at the Grenville stage of metamorphism - 1000-800 Ma; 3 - zircon
developed during the crystallization of quartz-diorite orthogneisses - 650-540 Ma (Baikalian stage);
zircon 4 - formed presumably during the crystallization of tonalite-granitic series - 530-500 Ma
(Late Baikalian stage of metamorphism) and 5 - zircon formed during the crystallization of Late
Variscan granitoids and also under the impact of high-temperature fluids over pre-Late Variscan
rocks - 330-310 Ma. The age of regional metamorphism of gneiss-migmatite complex of the
Khrami crystalline massif is determined as 930Ma (Neoproterozoic). The Late Variscan granitoids
are dated within the interval - 319-332Ma. The studies conducted substantially fill up the gaps
existing in the isotope-geochronological data of the pre-Alpine crystalline basement of the Black
Sea-Central Transcaucasian terrane and specify to a considerable extent the age of pre-Alpine
endogenic processes.

Conclusions

Paleomagnetic, paleokinematic and geological data, as well as global plate tectonic
reconstructions indicate that within the oceanic area of Tethys, with a typical oceanic crust, in
geological past relatively small continental or subcontinental plates (terranes) were situated. During
the Late Precambrian, Paleozoic and Early Mesozoic these terranes underwent horizontal
displacement in different directions and ultimately they joined the Eurasian continent. In many
places of the Caucasus there are ophiolite sutures and ophiolite terranes (obducted plates), which
represent the oceanic crust of small or large oceanic basins. At the same time geological (structural)
and geophysical data indicate that the Earths crust of the Caucasus is tectonically layered. this
layering, side by side with other sources of heat (subduction, stream of fluids, radiogenic heat),
owing to dissipative warming up of rocks, creates thermal screen and stipulates the generation of
supplementary deep energy for metamorphism and granite formation processes. In Neoproterozoic
and Paleozoic on the peripheries of the oceanic basins regional metamorphism and granite
formation took place, which were conditioned by the functioning of subduction zones by both sides
of Paleotethys and along the northern peripheries of comparatively small oceanic basins of the
Arkhiz and Southern slope of the Greater Caucasus.
Processes of multi-stage regional metamorphism, granite formation and tectonic
deformations were timed to Grenville, Baikalian (Panafrican), Late Baikalian (Salairian),
Caledonian, Variscan and Early Cimmerian (Indosinian) orogenies. Observed occurrence at
different times and diversity of endogenic activity in various terranes of the Caucasus show the
asynchronism of episodic activity of subduction zones on different sides of the oceanic basins
separating these terranes.

REFERENCES:

1. Gamkrelidze I. 1997. Terranes of the Caucasus and adjacent areas//Bull. Acad. Sci. Georgian, 155, 3,
75-81
2. Gamkrelidze I. 1991. Tectonic nappes and horizontal layering of the Earth's crust in the Mediterranean
belt (Carpathians, Balkanides and Caucasus)// Tectonophysics, vol. 196, p.385-396.
3. Gamkrelidze I., Shengelia D. 2001. Origin of the igneous rocks of the Dzirula crystalline massif (the
Caucasus)//Geotectonics, V.35, N1, p 51-61
4. Gamkrelidze I., Shengelia D. 2005. Precambrian-Paleozoic regional metamorphism, granitoid
magmatism and geodynamic of the Caucasus//Scientific world, Moscow, 458 (in Russian).
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Caucasus and its geological significance//Bull. Acad. Sci. Georgian, 154, N1, p. 84-89
6. Gamkrelidze I. 1986. Geodynamic evolution of the Caucasus and adjacent areas in Alpine
time//Tectonophysics, vol. 127, p.261-267.
7. Stampfli G., Borel G. 2002. A plate tectonic model for the Paleozoic and Mesozoic constrained by
dynamic plate boundaries and restored synthetic oceanic isocrons//Earth Planet. Sic. Lett, 196, p. 17-33.
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Variscan Alpine collisional orogens//Tectonphysics, #365, p. 7-22.
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region//Trudi GIN AN Gruzii, Nov. ser., p. (in Russian)
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on the U-Pb zircon age of the pre-Alpine crystalline basement of the Black Sea-Central Transcaucasian
terrane and their geological significance//Bull. Acad. Sci. Georgian, v.5, N1, p. 119-131.



GEOLOGICAL CATASTROPHES AND EVENT DEPOSITS
F. Maisadze
1
, T. Tsutsunava
2

Alexandre Janelidze Institute of Geology of Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Georgia
1
fmaisadze@yahoo.com,
2
tsutsunava@yahoo.com

Geological catastrophic events (unlike the cosmic and technological ones) in the nature are
manifested in the form of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, mudflows and turbidity currents, floods,
landslide processes, etc. The sediments formed as a result of these processes are event deposits
characterized by specific structural-textural and lithological features. For the first time presence of
event deposits was noted in cyclic (rhythmic) formations, treated in a number of interesting
researches [1]. In chaotic formations the existence of event deposits first was noted by F. Maisadze
in the Upper Eocene formations of the Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus [2, 3].
Cyclically built rocks are built of the layered rhythms that are identical or fairly close by
composition; they repeat regularly in a section. In terms of structural and textural features the
cyclically built formations have been unified under the name of cyclites or elementary cyclites.
They included turbidites, storm deposits, calcareous-marly rhythms, flood deposits, etc. When their
classification was endowed with a genetic notion, they were subdivided into three groups: per-
iodites, tempestites and turbidites. Periodites are attributed to normally-sedimentary formations,
while tempestites and turbidites - to event deposits [1]. The last ones (coquina beds, condensed
layers, storm sandstones, flat-pebble conglomerates, turbidites, etc.) are geological bodies of
sedimentary origin [4], formed as a result of rapid, single catastrophic events. Cyclites belong to
periodites; they are deposited in deep-water parts of the basin (below the wave base level) and are
characterized by a certain periodicity of sedimentation caused by facial changes. They represent
non-turbiditic pelagic and hemipelagic calcareous-marly rhythms [5]. Their sedimentation in time
can last some tens and hundred thousand years. Tempestites settle between the storm and normal
baselines of waves, and turbidites - mainly on continental slopes. Unlike periodites, sedimentation
of tempestites and turbidites occurs instantly, as a result of catastrophic events, the latter being one
of the main factors of their formation. The given examples show well the extent of diversity of
sedimentation of structurally similar, but genetically different cyclically built deposits. However, in
nature there is also another group of rocks, which analogously to cyclic deposits, has an identical
structure, but the involved rocks considerably differ from each other genetically. This refers to
chaotically built formations to which belong sedimentary conglomerates and breccias,
olistostromes (block breccias), wild flysch, horizons with inclusions, volcanic breccias, tectonic
breccias (mlange), glacial and mud breccias, etc. Among these genetically different chaotic
formations, the object of our attention is their exclusively sedimentary varieties, formed in marine
basins. Such are breccias, conglomerates, olistostromes, wild flysch, horizons with the inclusions
and reef breccias. All of them are made up of fragments and pebbles of rocks of different
composition and age; their size varies from several centimeters (conglomerates, breccias) to several
hundreds and thousands cubic meters (olistostromes, wild flysch).
As is known, reef breccias, owing to their specific conditions of formation, differ from
other sedimentary breccias. In particular, they are formed as a result of the action of sea waves on
the slopes of reef structures, and representing a product of destruction of coral islands. Usually, reef
breccias closely merge with the reef body composed of massive or obscurely lamellar limestones.
In case of surf processing of boulders, they pass into a well-rounded pebble, forming conglomerate
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seams. Their characteristic feature is that, as well as breccias, they contain limy pebbles and
cement. As for the horizons with inclusions, the laminated norm-sedimentary rocks in them are
base components, and the clastic material has a subordinate role; by their lithological nature, they
most likely belong to intermediate (transitive) deposits between norm-sedimentary and chaotic
formations. As to conglomerates and breccias, by origin they are identical, with the only difference,
that in conglomerates the degree of roundness of the fragments composing them is higher. Gene-
tically olistostromes and wild flysch are alike as well. The basic distinction between them lies in
the conditions of their formation. In particular, the olistostromes settled in the basins with epi-
continental mode of sedimentation, and wild flysch - in flysch basin. As is known, in the formation
of sedimentary deposits, along with many factors (climatic changes, activity of organisms, fluxes
and refluxes, facies realm, etc.), tectonic movements play quite an important and often defining
role. The sedimentary chaotically built formations under consideration are not an exception.
Transgressive and regressive deposits, mostly composed of conglomerates and breccias, are
formed as a result of the lowering and rise of sedimentary basins. During these processes, the
tectonic movements proceed rather evenly without any cataclysms; thus, as the normal process of
sedimentation is uninterrupted, the conglomerates and breccias are norm-sedimentary formations.
However, in cases when tectonic movements were activated, catastrophic events were occurring.
These events together with appropriate paleogeographic and facies conditions provoke deposition
of olistostromes and wild flysch, representing event deposits.
Thus, proceeding from the genetic principles, the chaotic formations under consideration,
can be subdivided into two groups: normally-sedimentary (conglomerates, breccias) and event
(oilstostromes, wild flysch) deposits. One of the vivid examples of chaotically built event deposits
are the Upper Eocene olistostromes and wild flysch of the Alpine folded area - a subject of interest
of many researchers [6-14]. They contain valuable information for paleogeographic reconstructions
and about the tectonic movements at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, being one of the important
periods in the history of the region. The increased interest in studying the Upper Eocene
olistostromes and wild flysch is accounted for by the fact that they are widespread in the entire
Alpine fold belt; besides, they are peculiar marker formations, allowing to establish the time and
duration of the manifestation of the Pyrenean orogeny, thereby enabling correlating of the tectonic
movements including catastrophic events, both in the Alpine fold system and beyond its limits. In
the greater part of the Alpine fold system olistostromes are part of flysch formations allowing
F.Kaufman [15] to identify them as wild flysch, though according to a number of researchers, by
their nature and structure they differ from typical flysch [9] or are not at all flysch [16]. However,
as correctly noted by M.G.Leonov [17] wild flysch is a component of flysch formations of the
Alpine area, in a greater part of which flysch formation was complated in Late Eocene. As to the
term olistostrome (landslide bed) it was introduced much later by G.Flores [18] for any
chaotically built sedimentary rocks and from the beginning implying their formation as landslide-
induced events only. However, as it often happens, initial meaning of the term loses its sense and it
begins to be applied to structurally and lithologically similar formations as well. The term
olistostrome is not exception either. Subsequently, it turned out that in the formation of
olistostromes, besides landslide events, an important role is played by tectonics and that is
especially important, for their formation in time mostly corresponds to the peaks of Alpine
tectogenesis [19].
Before passing to the issues concerning the paleogeography and nature of formation of the
Upper Eocene olistostromes and wild flysch, let us consider the geological position of these
formations in some folded structures of the Alpine system. There are only a few examples below,
where, in our opinion, deposits of our interest are most well studied.
The Swiss Alps. In the segment of the Alpine folded system under consideration wild
flysch is developed in the Ultragelvet nappe, which is situated above the Helvetide nappes. The
Ultragelvetian cover is built up of intensively deformed flysch deposits in which thin covers are
developed. Wild flysch composes the lowermost of them - the Plen-Mort nappe [20]. It is
developed in the form of a narrow strip between the Alpine molasse (in the north) and the deposits
forming the Helvetian and Pre-Alpine nappe from Lake of Geneva in the south-west to the Austrian
Alps in the north-east. The most interesting exposures of wild flysch are observed in the Habkern
zone, situated in the northern part of Central Switzerland, between the lakes Tun and Firvaldshtet.
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Here the flysch formations form a syncline trough and are represented by Habkern flysch, outliers
of Klippe nappe and Schlieren flysch. The object of our interest is Habkern flysch, which, by
structural-lithological features, is subdivided into three parts, each representing an independent
tectonic sheet [21]. The lowermost part is represented by a flysch of basal sheet followed by a
flysch with the packages of Limern beds and wild flysch. The sediments, composing the latter two
sheets are interesting to that they, to a different extent are a result of event sedimentation and are
formed synchronously. Marls among which there are sandstones, conglomerates and breccias, also
lenses and interlayers with fragments of foraminifer shells form the tectonic slab of the basal sheet.
By the fauna in the deposits of basal sheet, these rocks are dated as Late Eocene (Priabonian) [21].
The sheet is tectonically over thrusts by the more ancient deposits of the Helvetian nappe and the
Upper Eocene formations inclusive. In its turn, the slab of basal sheet from south is also overthrust
by another sheet, built up by flysch with packages of Limern beds and a wild flysch. Flysch
formations composing the given sheet are lithologically similar to the rocks of the basal sheet and
are represented by alternation of marls, aleurolites, sandstones and breccias. The only difference
between them is that in the sheet under consideration, in the groundmass of flysch there are
fragments of thick marls and limestone blocks of the Upper Cretaceous and Paleocene age; in some
places, their size reaches several tens of meters. By faunistic data and that of the nummulites
inclusive the groundmass of flysch, which contains these inclusions, is dated as the Late Eocene
(Priabonian) [21]. The next tectonic sheet represented actually by wild flysch, was identified by
Gigon [21] as an independent facies; it consist mainly of dark marls and marl slates with
intercalations and lenses of sandstones, limestones, conglomerates and breccias. This groundmass
contains inclusions of crystalline and sedimentary rocks with a stratigraphic range from the Triassic
to Eocene inclusive. Among the crystalline rocks, the Habkern granites prevail in volume and
quantity and Limern limestones among the sedimentary rocks. Overall, the dimensions of clastic
material vary from several centimeters to several thousand cubic meters. In particular, separate
blocks of Habkern granites reach 13000
3
, and the Limern limestones - 100m in length [22, 23]. In
intercalations and lenses of conglomerates and breccias the same rocks, as the olistholites of wild
flysch, are mainly presented by clastic material. Separate partings of breccias contain a
considerable amount of fragments of oyster shells. Along with them condensed beds (tempestites),
consisting of elements of re-deposited fauna of different age are also present; along with wild
flysch they represent event deposits of two generations.The age of wild flysch is reliably defined by
faunistic data as the Late Eocene (Priabonian) [22, 21] etc.). If the assumption is accepted that wild
flysch was formed as a result of overthrusting, which began at the end of Late Eocene [12], the age
of wild flysch can be specified as the upper part of Upper Eocene. Lithological similarity and
synchronism of flysch formations forming separate tectonic sheets of the Habkern zone, allow one
to assume that they settled in a single flysch basin. In Late Eocene, in the process of flysch
formation, as a result of the catastrophic events of different scale and intensity sedimentation of
event deposits of different categories took place. During powerful catastrophic processes a wild
flysch was formed with packages of Limern and Habkern granites, and at their weaker
manifestation tempestites (coquina breccias, the condensed layers) and turbidites were deposited.
The location of the parent rocks of those exotic blocks and fragments, whose bedrock outcrops are
not exposed nowadays, today are debatable among the researchers. This primarily refers to
Habkern granites, to crystalline schists and Limern beds. Inclusions of the last, as was already
marked, are distinguished in the large sizes. The researchers connect the presence of exotic blocks
in wild flysch, as well as origin of the latter, with destruction of the frontal parts of the Pennine and
Austrian-Alpine nappes, thrusting from the south [24, 7, and 21]. In order to explain the presence
of fragments of Habkern granites the existence of hypothetical granite boundary between the
Ultragelvet and Pennine areas [7] has been assumed. An analogous assumption, as it will be shown
below, also has been made for exotic inclusions (Upper Jurassic reef limestones, Bajocian
volcanogens, Pre-Jurassic crystalline rocks), contained in the Upper Eocene olistostromes of the
Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus.
The French Alps (Western Alps). Here chaotic event deposits are presented by
olistostromes which have developed within the Tertiary basin of Valensol, a part of the sub-Alpine
chain and forming the external sedimentary cover of the Dauphine zone. Olistostromes here are
developed in two places, where they extend for tens of kilometers in the form of narrow strips. The
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first outcrop of olistostromes is confined to the Dign-Barle nappe; its northern part passes within
the sub-Alpine chains and the southern - between the deposits of sub-Alpine chains and Provence.
In the northern part the mentioned nappe has more or less meridional, and in the southern - an
arcwise orientation. Due to this thrust, the allochthonous deposits of the Mesozoic (Trias-Liassic)
age from the east to west thrust over the autochthonous molasse formations. The thrust zone
suffered heavy tectonic impact and is built up of several tectonic sheets, consisting of rocks of
diverse age. One of such sheets contains olistostromes with red bed matrix. In them, unlike the
western outcrops of olistostromes, besides Cretaceous rocks olistoliths of Upper Jurassic
limestones are present as well, their size varying within 20-80m [25]. To the west of Dign-Barle
thrust the second outcrop of olistostromes is located. Here they take part in the structure of red
molasses, occupying its bottom horizons. The red molasse itself is a lower part of the
autochthonous molasse. In the ascending section, it is replased by continental deposits. The latter,
in their turn, are overlapped by Miocene marine molasse and the Mio-Pliocene Valensol
conglomerates. The red molasse olistostromes consist of separate horizons of chaotically built
breccias and olistoliths of Cretaceous rocks that reach several hundred meters in diameter. The
maximum thickness of olistostromes is up to 1 km [25]. Study of the structure, tectonic setting and
composition of the olistostromes of the Valensol basin, led the majority of researchers to the
conclusion that olistostromes were formed in similar paleogeographic conditions and that the main
factor of their formation was tectonics that caused disintegration of rocks and formation of the
tectonic cover made up of olistostromes [25, 26]. According to brachiopods and algae, also, by its
stratigraphic position beneath the Miocene marine molasses, the age of the red molasse turned out
to be the Lower Oligocene. The olistostromes that occupy the lower part of the red molasse are
conventionally dated to the Upper Eocene.
Outer Dinarides. In the particular fold system, wild flysch is developed in the Ionic zone,
within Albania and in the north-west of Greece. Here these formations are located between the
Oligocene and Upper Eocene flysch deposits. They are most widespread along the eastern margin
of the Ionic zone, in the area from the Greek border to middle Albania (zone Gavrovo). It is
remarkable, that in the clastic parts of wild flysch, besides dense sandstones and limestone blocks,
there is a considerable amount of fragments of Mesozoic ophiolites (serpentinites, periodites,
gabbro, diabases, etc.) [27]. In this part of the Dinarides in flysch formations (as well as in
molasses and other terrigenous deposits) there occur buried, rootless detached (exotic) blocks up to
tens of millions of cubic meters in volume, mainly represented by limestones.It is considered that
they got into the sedimentary basin due to strong co-sedimentary tectonic movements that took
place at the end of Late Eocene [27]. Formation of wild flysch occurred in a short time interval, as
testified by the complex of foraminifers; they are observed in the layers underlying and overlying
the wild flysch, represented by practically the same complex of microfauna [28], most likely dating
these formations to the upper part of the Upper Eocene.
The Greater Caucasus. In the given folded area, the Upper Eocene event deposits in the
form of olistostromes are developed on the Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus. Their greatest
part is located within Georgia and only their separate outcrops are observed in the Azerbaijan part
of the Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus (Dashbulag and Talistan outcrops, Talistan and
Shabian "cliffs").
The olistostromes under consideration - despite their strong tectonic processing and
displacement over great distances (20-50 km) - give valuable information about the
paleogeography and tectonic events, including catastrophic ones, going on in the second half of
Late Eocene. Olistostromes formed to the south of the flysch basin, within the northern part of
Gagra-Java zone with epicontinental mode of sedimentation, at present overlapped with overthrust
nappes. They are distributed irregularly and observed in two localities Fig.1.

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Fig.1. Scheme of distribution of Upper Eocene olistostromes on the territory of Georgia
1 - Frontal of thrust of flysch deposits; 2 Zone of olistostromes propagation

Their minor part, developed in the western segment of the fold system (Adler depression) is
part of the regressive Matsesta suite represented as a horizon with inclusions [29]. The
completeness of the section of the Matsesta suite, contained the nummulitic fauna in it and distinct
borders between the underlying and overlapping suites (Argveti and Khosta suites), allows to
establish the beginning and duration of the New-Pyrenean orogeny. This orogeny has caused
accumulation of the suite as a whole, and in its maximum display - formation of the "horizon with
the inclusions". By its nature, the latter represents typical olistostromes of tectonic-gravitation
origin [30, 31]. The main part of Upper Eocene olistostromes is developed in the eastern segment
of the Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus. Here, from the river Rioni they stretch as a narrow
strip to the east, along the frontal line of the thrust of allochthonous flysch deposits of the Mestia-
Tianeti zone. Due to this thrust the deposits under consideration partially, and at places probably
entirely, are tectonically overlapped by the Cretaceous-Paleogene flysch deposits. In their turn,
from the north, the olistostromes thrust over the autochthonous normally-sedimentary rocks of the
Gagra-Java zone, including the Upper Eocene ones.
Researchers disagree on the issue of olistostrome age. They were attributed to different
stratigraphic levels of the Eocene. According to nummulitic fauna they have been dated to the Upper
Eocene [32]. Initially it was believed that the olistostromes cover all the Upper Eocene or its base. Then
on the basis of new faunistic findings [17] and correlations with the coeval formations of the adjacent
areas [30, 33] it proved feasible to specify the age of the olistostromes and to refer them to the
uppermost Upper Eocene. Our studies show that the olistostromes are synchronous formations of the
horizon with the inclusions of the Matsesta suite [30]. Olistostromes are built up mainly of olistoliths
of the Mesozoic and, partially, Paleogene deposits of the Gagra-Java zone. Among them the Upper
Jurassic reef limestones and Bajocian volcanites are widesprea. Moreover, these olistoliths are
characterized by huge size. Especially it concerns to limestones, which in separate exposures
correspond to olistoplacs; in volume they reach several hundreds and thousand cubic meters (mountains
Orbodzala and Alevis-klde, the Georgian Military road, etc.). Because of huge sizes of these rocks,
some of them had earlier been considered as the Upper Jurassic bedrocks. The inner structure of the
Upper Eocene olistostrome complex is very complicated. Separate parts of this section of the strata
thrust over each other, stratified varieties of rocks are intensively kneaded, competent strata are
fractured, boudinaged, brecciated, broken up. If taken into account the irregular placement of debris
(olistoliths) and slabs (olistoplacs) in the matrix, in general chaotic character and tectonic processing,
the presence of tectonized fragments and, as noted, great volume and immense spread, these
olistostromes should be attributed mainly to tectono-gravitational olistostromes. Nevertheless
M.G.Leonov [34] notes the presence of lenslike bodies of peculiar breccias of small thickness (1-2m)
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and extent (20-30m), coarse-grained part of which is composed of absolutely unrounded, curved, oddly
deformed fragments of sandstone beds, but the matrix is composed mainly of pelitic material. These
breccias are characterized by the presence of clayey pellets and absence of allothigenic material. The
composition of breccia fragments and matrix corresponds to that of the enclosing sediments. Proceeding
from these features, these locally spread bodies of breccias are attributed to gravitational mixtites.
When dealing with the formation mechanism of olistostromes of the Southern Slope of the
Greater Caucasus, it should be noted that many researchers consider tectonics to have a key role in
their formation. The process of olistostrome formation is attributed to the periods of folding and
nappe formation [17, 34, 35, 36, 30, and 33]. V.P.Rengarten [37] was the first to specify linkage of
olistostrome formation (block breccias) with the destruction of frontal parts of tectonic nappes.
The presence in olistostromes of exotic inclusions of the Upper Jurassic limestones (the
Georgian Military road, Kakheti) and crystalline rocks of the basement (to the east of the river
Aragvi) gave rise to the question of the location and structure of the land that supplied the Late
Eocene basin with clastic material. Such a hypothetical land was most likely the Racha-Vandam
land; it was a chain of separate cordilleras, located in the northern peripheral part of the Gagra-Java
zone, extending from the Utsera meridian in the west along the southern boundary of the flysch
basin [36, 30].


Fig. 2. Paleogeographic profile of the end of the Late Eocene
1 Pre-Alpine crystalline basement, 2 Lower Jurassic-Aalenian sandstones and shales, 3 Bajocian
porphyritic series, 4 Upper Jurassic reef limestones, 5 Cretaceous limestones (Gagra-Java zone facies),
6 Aptian-Paleogene flysch sediments, 7 Upper Eocene norm- sedimentary suite,
8 Upper Eocene olistostromes.

The composition of the clastic material of olistostromes shows that this cordillera zone had
been built up mainly of Mesozoic and partially of Lower Paleogene rocks of the Gagra-Java zone;
beginning from the river Aragvi and more easterly, it consists of the rocks of the pre-Jurassic
crystalline basement Fig.2. It was the main source of terrigene material not only in Paleogene,
but most likely in the Cretaceous period as well [33, 38]. In the second half of Late Eocene, during
the Pyrenean orogeny, along the thrust front of flysch formations, due to nappe formation [17, 34,
36, 30, 2] there took place an intensive destruction of Racha-Vandam cordillera zone and
dislocation of the disintegrated material in the southward direction, towards the epicontinental
basin; here there began deposition of olistostromes around the cordilleras.
Delivery of rudaceous material did not occur gradually over a long time, but it was
connected with oft-recurring short-term catastrophic processes (instant in geological sense). This is
indicated by sharp contacts of breccias with the surrounding sandy-argillaceous sediments, and it
can be seen as the blocks press in underlying, probably not consolidated sediments.
The cordillera zone at present completely overlapped with flysch thrust was apparently
formed due to the Bathonianorogeny, existing up to the Late Eocene inclusive [36].
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Conclusions
As to the issues of general paleogeography and genesis of both the olistostromes and the
wild flysch of the Alpine fold system, it should be noted that, along with catastrophic events, their
formation necessitated the presence of a dissected relief in the form of cliffs and cordilleras - the
basic suppliers of clastic material. Movements of disintegrated material in the areas of
sedimentation, as illustrated by the examples, mostly occurred due to the tectonic movements and
the attendant downfall-landslide processes, being indicative of their tectonic-gravitational origin.
These geological events occurred especially frequently in the zones of deep faults and in the
process of nappe-formation as well. Whereas olistostromes and a wild flysch of tectonic-gravity
origin are, as a rule, characterized by regional spreading, great thickness, and polygenic content of
rocks of different age and by the presence of exotic blocks, analogous formations of purely
landslide genesis are spatially restricted and have a rather uniform composition of inclusions.
Gravity-induced olistostromes are indicators of intensification of vertical movements, mainly along
high-angle faults, while tectonic-gravity olistostromes point to horizontal dislocations connected
with the formation of tectonic nappes [34, 39].
When considering the process of wild flysch formation from the point of view of cat-
astrophic events, one should note the following sequence in its formation. During flysch formation
when the background deposits settled, in definite time intervals, due to relatively weak catastrophic
events turbidities were deposited. However, when tectonic movements reached their peak, intensive
catastrophic processes took place, thus delivering into the basin fragments (blocks) of huge size,
causing the formation of olistostrome strata building a wild flysch. Comparing event deposits of
cyclically (tempestites, turbidites) and chaotically (olistostromes, wild flysch) built formations, it
may be stated that they sharply differ from each other by structure and lithology; though they are
similar by genesis, being products of catastrophic events of varying scale andintensity. While
tempestites and turbidites are products of single and very short-term catastrophes, olistostromes
and wild flysch were often formed due to recurring catastrophic events; thus, their formation in
time lasted longer, though according to geological criteria it too is a short-term event. Even at great
thicknesses, the stratigraphic range of their accumulation is excessively short [34]. The considered
event deposits of the Alpine fold system, being synchronous formations, clearly pointing to their
timing to the same geological event. In particular, as V.E.Khain [40] assumes, such could have
been a collision leading to the formation of the fold-nappe structure of the Greater Caucasus. It
began at the end of Late Eocene, reaching its maximum in Late Miocene when the Arabian plate
separated from the African plate and began movement to the north. In addition, it should be noted
that, in our opinion, classification of event sediments, should be made with account of the extent of
intensity and scale of manifestation of those catastrophic events, which form these sediments. From
this point of view, event-induced chaotic sediments (olistostromes, wild flysch) are formations of
higher order, than analogous sediments of the rhythmically built formations (tempestites,
turbidites).
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//Transactions of A. Janelidze Geological Institute of Acad. of Sci. of GSSR, ser. geol. X(XV), 139-147,
1957 (Georgian).
33. Maisadze F. Upper Eocene Olistostromes of the Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus // Stratigraphy
and Geological Correlation, vol. 2, No. 1, 95-102, 1994 (Russian).
34. Leonov M. Olistostromes in the structure of boldbelts // Order of the Red Banner of Labor Geological
Institute of the Acad. of Sie. of the USSR, vol. 344, 173, 1981 (Russian).
35. Sherba I. Olustostromes and Problems of Cenozoic Tectonics of the Greater Caucasus // In: Geology
and Useful Minerals of the Caucasus. M.: Nauka, 191-200, 1987 (Russian).
36. Gamkrelidze P., Gamkrelidze I. Tectonic Nappes of the Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus // Proc.
of Geol. Inst. of Acad. of Sci. of GSSR, new series, issue 57, 80, 1977 (Russian).
37. Rengarten V. Geological Researches in the Southern Part of Georgian-Military Road in 1923 // Bull. of
Geol. Committee. XLIII, 2, 70-74, 1924 (Russian).
38. Maisadze F. Paleogeography and Geological Development of Georgia in the Paleogene time //
Al.Djanelidze Geological Institute. Proceedings, new series, vol. 111, 214, 1999 (Russian).
39. Khain V., Lomize M. Geotectonics with Fundamental Geodynamics/M.: Mir, 560, 2005 (Russian).
40. Khain V. Brief Annotation to F. Maisadzes Article Stratigraphy and Geological Correlation, 2, 1, 101-
102, 1994 (Russian).

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SUBSECTION
Atmosphere and Climate Change



THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE AND NATURAL CATACLYSMS IN
THE MODERN CIVILIZATION

Christoph J . Blasi
Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG), Germany
blasi@bafg.de

Water, the most important natural resource in the world, plays a major role in the
development of communities. Without water life cannot exist and industry cannot operate. Unlike
many other raw materials water cannot be substituted by any other resource. Therefore it can be
stated that water is an essential prerequisite for the establishment of human communities.
However, water as a natural resource for human wellbeing is only one aspect. Water in its
different physical phases, like liquid, solid and gaseous, may pose risks to life, residences, and
industrial plants. Heavy precipitation, floods, storm surges, and ice are only some examples for the
occurrence of risks and the related problems. Therefore the knowledge about the movement of
water on the land surface and the interactions with oceans and the atmosphere is a key issue. This
movement is known as the Hydrological Cycle.The hydrological cycle is a closed system in the
sense that water circulating in the system always remains within the system. The whole cycle is
driven by the excess of incoming solar radiation over outgoing radiation. The cycle consists of
several subsystems, namely: the atmosphere, surface runoff, subsurface water (or unsaturated
zone), groundwater (or saturated zone), river networks, and the oceanic subsystem. It is obvious
that the occurrence of water on the land plays a major role within this cycle, because it is mainly
there where man and the hydrological cycle interact. This part is called surface hydrology and it
follows the atmospheric hydrology, which deals with the atmospheric motion of water usually in
the form of vapour and water fluxes, and finally subsurface hydrology, which deals with the water
in porous underground. The subdivision of the hydrological cycle into subsystems above and below
the land surface is somewhat arbitrary, because continuous, but spatially and temporally varying,
interchanges between them take place in the dynamic processes of the water movement.Within
these highly dynamic processes of the water movement, the main activities of the mankind take
place with all the cities, industrial plants and harbours on lakes, rivers, estuaries, or coastal waters.
Even if all these facilities did not release any kind of substance which is not harmful, they would
have influence on the dynamic water motion. Change in vegetation, e.g. from forest to arable land,
has influence on the movement of water and its variation in time. There will be changes in water
storage, precipitation, and even loss of soil into the rivers. The soil in the river can also cause
reactions like erosion and sedimentation in other parts of the river system. Urbanization and the
creation of impervious areas affect both the hydrology and hydraulics of drainage systems. They
change the runoff characteristics and have adverse effects on the designed drainage structures, such
as bridges, culverts, and sewers. These are only a few examples of anthropogenic impacts on the
hydrological cycle. There are many other processes, which take place on local, regional, and global
scales. When evaluating the influence of mans activity, the natural variation of the system has
always to be taken into account. This variation can be tremendous. Nowadays, nearly all large
rivers are trained for navigation. The natural behaviour of a river is not static, it is dynamic, e.g.
meandering. Storms that hit unprotected coastlines can carry off large amounts of valuable land.
Nowadays many coastlines are improved by shore protection structure and dikes. Therefore the risk
of land loss by storm surge will be small, but there is always a remaining risk. However, tidal
rivers, which were deepened for navigation, will have a much bigger tidal range than before.
Deeper water serves the incoming ships by providing a fairway and improves the transport by large
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ships. The reverse effect is the change of the incoming tide, which introduces more energy and
carries more sediment into the tidal river. As a consequence, more dredging is needed in the
fairway. Unfortunately, the liquid and solid wastes from communities have a considerable potential
for environmental pollution. This pollution also affects the hydrological cycle. Therefore it is
necessary to address this problem in more detail. The various interconnected subsystems and parts
of the Earth, like atmosphere, water, soil sediments, and biota, contain material that is characterized
by high area-to-volume ratios. Adsorption influences the distribution of pollutants between the
aqueous phase and particulate matter and, in turn, affects their transport through the various parts
of the hydrological cycle. The geochemical fate, the residence times, and the residual
concentrations of reactive elements such as heavy metals and organic pollutants are to a large
extent controlled by their affinity to solid surfaces. Colloids are ubiquitous in sea water, in
freshwater, in soil, and in groundwater. The chemical, physical, and biological processes that occur
in the different subsystems and at the interfaces between them influence the major geochemical
cycles.Hydrological knowledge is also needed in the assessment of the interaction of the
hydrological cycle with the biochemical cycles. Understanding how chemical cycles inter-depend
and are coupled with particles and organisms may aid our understanding of global ecosystems and
teach as how interacting systems may become disturbed by human activity.Water, a natural
resource for a growing population and industrial development, has to be managed very carefully.



THE STUDY OF SINKHOLES IN THE MOSCOW TERRITORY

I .V. Kozlyakova, I .A. Kozhevnikova, O.N. Eremina, Yu.A. Azyukina
Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow, Russia, direct@geoenv.ru

About ten new sinkholes are registered every year in Moscow during the last 10 years. The
lateral dimensions of sinkholes formed at the surface reach 10--15 m. These sinkholes cause
noticeable damage to the urban economy and may threaten human lives and health. They may
occur on roadways, under which the subsurface pipelines are laid, near construction pits and
sewage wells. However, most of sinkholes are not evidently confined to any underground
structures. To forecast possible collapses, it is necessary to be aware of their formation mechanism
and to identify geological criteria for subdividing urban territory in areas of different stability. In
Moscow, sinkholes and surface subsidence have been investigated by many researchers; most of
them treat these phenomena as karst and suffusion manifestation. Karst-suffusion development is
favored by specific geological structure: easily soluble calcareous deposits are overlain by sand and
clay of varying thickness. Suffosion processes are induced by the presence of water-saturated sandy
deposits of different age and heterogenous composition in the upper part of geological
massif.Proceeding from annual information reports published during 1935-1995, mass media data,
and our own observations, 183 sinkholes and subsidence cases were registered on the Moscow
territory since 1930 till 2010. The MS Excel database was compiled, which included information
about time, place, and the data source on each case; sinkholes and subsidence cases were classified
depending on the data availability on the possible technogenic reasons of an incident (water
pipelines break, new construction, etc.) The obtained data on sinkholes were represented in the
form of point objects in a computer map of Moscow using MapInfo Professional GIS. Next, for
each case of collapse or subsidence, the neighbor boreholes records were analyzed and the
geological structure information was added to the database (surface elevation a.s.l., technogenic
layer thickness, thickness of moraine deposits, depth of karstified limestone occurrence, the total
thickness of overlaying clay, etc.)The statistical processing of the data obtained permitted us to
classify sinkhole cases by seasons, allocation at different geomorphological areas, and types of
geological structure.



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THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE HYDRO
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OF AZERBAIJAN REPUBLIC

R.N. Mahmudov
Scientific-Research Hydrometeorological Institute,
The Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic, Baku, Azerbaijan
rza_mahmudov@ramber.ru, hidrometinstitut@rambler.ru

As the result of global climate changes the number of natural disasters related to dangerous
hydro meteorological processes, such as mudflows, floods, forest fires, droughts and etc. has been
increased recently. According to the information provided by World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) 80-85% of natural disasters all over the world were caused by dangerous hydro
meteorological processes. Its clear that such increase in the dynamics of natural disasters of
different origins is the result of global warming impacts on atmosphere connected to the global
climate changes.
In general, during whole observation period, XX century was declared as the most warm
century, the last 10 years of the XX century were declared as the most warm decade, 1995, 1998,
2000, 2003, 2006 years the most warm years in history. As the result, humanity has been faced
with climate changes and dangerous natural disasters created by certain geophysical processes. One
of the key challenges for scientists worldwide is the increasing of World Oceans level, decreasing
of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean, Antarctica and in Greenland follows from global temperature
increasing.
In comparison with the basis period 1961-1990, established by WMO, at the territory of
Azerbaijan Republic increasing of long-term annual (perennial) temperature up on 0.7
0
C and little
increasing in precipitations were observed. Its particularly interesting that, if we will make
confrontation between basis period and last 15 years period the increasing in winter seasonal
temperature and decreasing in spring seasonal temperature could be observed. For other seasons,
such as summer and autumn, seasonal temperature increasing could be observed. In 2006, 2007,
2008 and 2009 years at the altitudes of the territory of Azerbaijan Republic significant changes in
dynamics of precipitation and temperature in comparison with the norm were observed.
The table shows that at the territory of republic the maximum increase of temperature was observed
at the altitude more than 1000 m.As the result of disasters, about 20000 houses were flooded, more
than 300 were destroyed, 2000 were in emergency condition, about 50 hectare of cropped land
were flooded.
The total amount of material looses were estimated at 500 million AZM.

able 1.
Distribution of the middle-term annual and long-term annual (1961-1990)
temperature on different altitudes of the Azerbaijan Republic
territory in 2007, 2008 and 2009


Heights

s 0

0 - 200

201-500

501-1000

>1000
According
to the
Republic
territory
Norm 1961- 1990 14.6 14.3 13.3 11.9 7.8 12.3
Middle annual 2007 15.3 14.9 13.7 12.4 8.5 12.9
Difference, C +0.7 +0.6 +0.4 +0.5 +.0.7 +0.6
Middle annual 2008 15.4 15.1 14.2 12.5 8.9 13.0
Difference, C 0.8 +0.8 +0.9 +0.6 +1.1 +0.7
Middle annual 2009 15.2 14.9 14.1 12.3 8.8 12.9
Difference, C +0.6 +0.6 +0.8 +0.4 +1.0 +0.7
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SECTION 3
Cosmic-Terrestrial Relations,
Chronobiology, BIOCOS Program

INFRADIAN CYCLES IN AGING HUMAN PSYCHOPHYSIOLOGY
GAUGED BY THE CIRCADIAN MESOR AND AMPLITUDE

Franz Halberg, Robert B. Sothern, Dewayne Hillman, Germaine Cornlissen

Halberg Chronobiology Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
halbe001@umn.edu

Aim. By odds ratios based on the criterion of shared frequencies in the infradecadal, notably
para-annual range of the spectrum, the association of environmental functions with solar activity
more than matches the association of helio- to geomagnetics (1, 2). Therefore, we seek to continue
the cartography of aging with the aim of replacing the misconceptions of aging trends by more
complete time structures, including cycles.
Method. Multiple psychophysiological variables oral temperature (Temp), vigor (VIG),
mood, 1-minute time estimation (TE1m) and eye-hand coordination (EyeH) were self-assessed
about (~) 5-6 times/day for 43.5 years by a clinically healthy man, RBS. Some of the output of
cosinor analyses of consecutive 48-hour spans (intermediate computations) was used to constitute
two separate time series for each variable, one of the 24h MESORs (M, a better average than the
arithmetic mean) and the other of the 24h amplitudes (A, measure of predictable within-day
change). Linear-nonlinear extended cosinor analysis (3-5) of the circadian Ms and As reveal
separate sets of periods during aging from ~20.5 to >64 years of age, Table 1 and Figures 1-5. The
MESOR of Temp and TE1m are each characterized by an ~22-year cycle; Temp also has ~10.6-
year and ~5.2-year cycles, perhaps in harmonic relation. TE1m also has ~6.6-year and ~3.7-year
components, perhaps also in harmonic relation. Periods for 2A (the double circadian amplitude) are
~15.7 and ~10.2 years for Temp and ~16.6 and ~9.7 years for TE1m. It seems noteworthy,
however, that the MESOR of mood has a CI (95% confidence interval) reaching 30.7 years and that
of VIG a CI reaching 28.5 years. For 3 of the 2As, the CI enters the 30-40-year range (VIG, TE1m
and EyeH), and for mood a CI reaches 41.2 years. We thus realize that, as Brckner noted, given a
very wide variability of what we called the transtridecadal Brckner-Egeson-Lockyer (BEL) cycle,
we might rather deal with a paratridecadal cycle in 2 variables' MESORs and double circadian
amplitudes in 4 variables. Accordingly, para-tridecadal periods (t) have been redefined, in the light
of analyses of double amplitudes here tabulated, as having a CI of t reaching into the range of ts
from 28-42 years. Some of these ts, congruent with solar activity cycles, may be evolutionary
built-in signatures of the ~22-year Hale cycle of sunspot bipolarity (4 of the Ms) and of the ~11-
year Schwabe cycle and/or of their harmonics. A selective assortment of the organism's and the
environment's congruent ts (6) may change somewhat with the lengthening of the time series,
Figure 5, and/or as a function of age (1). Such findings are not apparent by inspection of a plot of
the variables investigated here (7), Figure 6, and elsewhere by others (8-13) and us (14-17).
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Fig.1.



Fig. 2.
0
6
1967 5 11 1978 4 16 1989 3 22 2000 2 26 2011 2 1
TIME (Calendar Date)
C
i
r
c
a
d
i
a
n

D
o
u
b
l
e

A
m
p
l
i
t
u
d
e
-0.4
1.3
3

M
E
S
O
R
* man, 20.5 years of age at start; increment and interval analyzed: 2 days
25.4(22.3,28.5), 9.4(9.1,9.7), 5.7(5.6,5.9)y +t2
40.6(34.1,47.1), [h]20.3(17.0,23.6), 9.1(8.7,9.5)y +t
PERIODS, t, CHARACTERIZING AVERAGE (MESOR) AND DOUBLE CIRCADIAN
AMPLITUDE (2A) OF SELF-RATED VIGOR OF RBS*
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Fig. 3.



Fig.4.
0
3
1967 5 11 1978 4 16 1989 3 22 2000 2 26 2011 2 1
TIME (Calendar Date)
C
i
r
c
a
d
i
a
n

D
o
u
b
l
e

0
3
6
M
E
S
O
R
* man, 20.5 years of age at start; increment and interval analyzed: 2 days
26.5 (22.3, 30.7), 11.6 (11.1, 12.1), 3.9 (3.8, 4.0) y
46.0 (41.2, 50.8), 12.4 (11.3, 13.6) y
PERIODS, t, CHARACTERIZING AVERAGE (MESOR) AND DOUBLE CIRCADIAN
AMPLITUDE (2A) OF SELF-RATED MOOD OF RBS*
0
40
1967 5 11 1978 4 16 1989 3 22 2000 2 26 2011 2 1
TIME (Calendar Date)
C
i
r
c
a
d
i
a
n

D
o
u
b
l
e

A
m
p
l
i
t
u
d
e

(
s
c
)
5
30
55
80
M
E
S
O
R

(
s
c
)
43.3(30.6,55.9), 16.6(15.0,18.2), 9.71(8.83,10.6) y
21.9(20.5,23.4), 6.59(6.36,6.82), 3.69(3.61,3.77) y
* man, 20.5 years of age at start; increment and interval analyzed: 2 days
PERIODS, t, CHARACTERIZING AVERAGE (MESOR) AND DOUBLE CIRCADIAN
AMPLITUDE (2A) OF TIME ESTIMATION OF 60 SECONDS BY RBS*
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Fig. 5.


Fig. 6.

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Table 1
Statistically significant periods (t) from nonlinearly extended cosinor in 5 variables of RBS,
a clinically healthy man self-measuring and self-rating 6 times a day for 43.5 years*

Period (95% CI) (years) Trend
Overall
SE
MESOR
Temp t 21.9 (20.7, 23.2) 10.6 (10.2, 11.0) 5.16 (5.00, 5.31) - - 0.20
2A 0.14 (0.11, 0.17) 0.12 (0.09, 0.15) 0.06 (0.03, 0.09) - -

VIG t 25.4 (22.3, 28.5) 9.38 (9.06, 9.70) 5.74 (5.61, 5.87) - t
2
0.29
2A 0.17 (0.12, 0.22) 0.16 (0.11, 0.21) 0.15 (0.10, 0.19) - -

Mood t 26.5 (22.3, 30.7) 11.6 (11.1, 12.1) 3.87 (3.78, 3.96) - - 0.65
2A 0.20 (0.10, 0.30) 0.35 (0.25, 0.44) 0.19 (0.10, 0.29) - -

TE1m t 21.9 (20.5, 23.4) 6.59 (6.36, 6.82) 3.69 (3.61, 3.77) - - 3.38
2A 2.27 (1.74, 2.80) 1.32 (0.80, 1.83) 1.10 (0.58, 1.61) - -

EyeH t 9.80 (8.98, 10.6) 8.05 (7.66, 8.44) 5.76 (5.49, 6.04) 3.45 (3.39, 3.50)
t
2
0.91
2A
0.63 (0.36, 0.90) 0.90 (0.62, 1.18) 0.39 (0.18, 0.61) 0.59 (0.40, 0.78)
-

Double amplitude
Temp t 15.7 (14.2, 17.3) 10.2 (9.81, 10.5) 5.17 (5.00, 5.35) - - 0.40
2A 0.13 (0.07, 0.19) 0.21 (0.15, 0.27) 0.11 (0.05, 0.16) - -

VIG t 40.1 (35.3, 44.9) [h] 20.0 (17.6, 22.4) 5.74 (5.59, 5.89)
- t 0.78
2A
1.08 (0.82, 1.34) [h] 0.26 (0.13, 0.39) 0.33 (0.21, 0.44)
- -

Mood t 46.0 (41.2, 50.8) 12.4 (11.3, 13.6) - - - 0.60
2A 0.48 (0.41, 0.56) 0.14 (0.06, 0.22) - - -

TE1m t 43.3 (30.6, 55.9) 16.6 (15.0, 18.2) 9.71 (8.83, 10.6) - - 6.68
2A 3.10 (2.07, 4.13) 2.93 (1.83, 4.03) 1.70 (0.63, 2.78) - -

EyeH t 42.5 (27.2, 57.8) 10.2 (9.40, 11.0) 1.01 (1.00, 1.02) - - 1.88
2A 1.00 (0.69, 1.31) 0.80 (0.48, 1.13) 0.70 (0.38, 1.02) - -

Temp: core temperature; VIG: vigor; TE1m: time estimation, 1 minute; EyeH: eye-hand
coordination; SE: standard error. 95% CI: 95% confidence intervals. SE: overall standard error. [h]:
fixed harmonic; t: linear trend; t
2
: quadratic linear trend.

REFERENCES:
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Finley J, Thomas F, Kino T, Revilla M, Schwartzkopff O. Personalized chronobiologic cybercare; other
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5. Refinetti R, Cornlissen G, Halberg F. Procedures for numerical analysis of circadian rhythms.
Biological Rhythm Research 2007; 38 (4): 275-325. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09291010600903692
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http://www.zsf.jcu.cz/vyzkum/jab/4_1/halberg.pdf



INFRADIAN CYCLES GAUGE AGING OF THE HUMAN CIRCULATION AND
RESPIRATION AROUND THE CLOCK FOR OVER FOUR DECADES
Robert B. Sothern, Dewayne Hillman, Germaine Cornlissen, Franz Halberg
Halberg Chronobiology Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
halbe001@umn.edu

Aim. To map the cycles that characterize human adulthood and to substitute such
cartography for the misconception of trends in aging that constitute misconceptions based in part
on the lack of the kind of longitudinal data on individuals such as those investigated herein.
Method. Multiple physiological variables systolic (S) and diastolic (D) blood pressure (BP)
(mean of 3 readings), heart rate (HR), pulse pressure (PP), respiratory rate, assessed in 2 minutes
(BR2m) and peak expiratory flow (PF, mean of 3 readings), Figure 1 were self-measured about 5-
6 times a day, for 43.5 years (y), by a clinically healthy man, RBS, aging from ~20.5 to >64 y.
Cosinor analyses of consecutive 48-hour spans of these data yield, as intermediate computations
(imputations), time series for two of the circadian (24-hour) rhythm characteristics, the midline-
estimating statistic of rhythm, MESOR (M) (usually a better average than the arithmetic mean),
and the double circadian amplitude, 2A (a measure of predictable within-day change).
Results. When analyzed by the extended cosinor (1-4), these two new sets of time series of
Ms and As for each variable reveal separate sets of periods during the span investigated (Fig. 2-7).
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Table 1 summarizes the results. Some of the periods found correspond roughly in length to periods
of solar variability or to their harmonics and may or may not differ for Ms vs. As. A paratridecadal
period, t, characterizing the environment (5-9), was anticipated for HR (10), and indeed one model
fitted herein to HR has a 32.9y cycle with a CI (95% confidence interval) extending from 31.4 to
34.4y, but it has a larger residual error, as compared to that of a 48.8y period with a CI of t that
somewhat overlaps the 30-40y range when a trend (t) function is included (Table 1). The 48.8y
period could result from possible changes (in period) with age and/or with the length of the series,
as documented earlier for another subject as a change from the calendar year to a transyear
component (11). It thus seems possible that a previously reported paratridecadal component has
changed into an about 50y component, previously reported as a population rhythm for the
incidence of strokes in Minnesota, USA, and in the Czech Republic (12), and well-known in
economics as the Kondratiev period (13).
Only additional data can decide which period(s) apply. The same two models show that more
than one t or set of ts can fit the data. In the case of doubt the smaller residual error can be used as
the criterion for the superiority of a model, unless another result was anticipated on the basis of
prior evidence (10). This is the case in view of documentation of a near-32.9y t for the previously
analyzed HR data, found earlier when the series was shorter, a result that should approximate that
currently obtained for the M of HR in RBS. A paratridecadal cycle is also reported for the BR2m-
M (t = 29.1y) and for SBP-M (t = 29.1y with a CI reaching 29.0y). In view of these findings,
"para" was added to "tridecadal" and the still-tentative definition of the BEL Brckner (6),
Egeson (5) and Lockyer (7) cycle extended to ts whose CI reaches the region between 28 and
42y.
Conclusion. A selective assortment of the organism's and the environment's periods that
probably reflect solar activity (14), at least in part (not shown), has changed somewhat with the
lengthening of the time series and/or as a function of age. The naked eye can consider the original
data plot in Figure 1 to guess that there are indeed changes with time in kind and extent of
oscillation in HR and a trend in PF in the bottom row. Not only such macroscopy, but also a global
analysis (of a series as a whole) in Figures 2-7, remains to be complemented by serial sections
and/or gliding spectra, spectrograms and/or wavelets, to assess changes with time in the periods
involved and thus to start placing aging on a chronobiologic basis.



Fig. 1.
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Fig. 2.


Fig. 3.

0
60
1967 5 11 1978 4 16 1989 3 22 2000 2 26 2011 2 1
TIME (Calendar Date)
C
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c
a
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a
n

D
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b
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e
A
m
p
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(
m
m
H
g
)
80
110
140
M
E
S
O
R
(
m
m
H
g
)
* man, 20.5 years of age at start; increment and interval analyzed: 2 days; t: linear trend
20.3(17.2,23.4), 8.88(8.15,9.60), 5.67(5.35,5.99), 1.00(.999,1.00) y +t3
27.6(26.3,29.0), 13.8(13.4,14.3), 6.48(6.40,6.57), 1.00(.997,1.01) y +t
PERIODS AND THEIR UNCERTAINTIES IN ( ) CHARACTERIZING AVERAGE (MESOR) AND
DOUBLE CIRCADIAN AMPLITUDE (2A) OF SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE OF RBS*
0
25
1967 5 11 1978 4 16 1989 3 22 2000 2 26 2011 2 1
TIME (Calendar Date)
C
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22
60
98
M
E
S
O
R
(
m
m
H
g
)
* man, 20.5 years of age at start; increment and interval analyzed: 2 days = linear trend, t2 = quadratic trend; h: harmonic
24.5(23.3,25.7), 12.8(12.6,13.0), [h]6.40(6.31,6.50), 10.2(9.76,10.7) y +t
15.2(12.7,17.8), 12.8(12.2,13.3), [h]6.39(6.11,6.66) y +t2
PERIODS, t, AND THEIR UNCERTAINTIES IN ( ), CHARACTERIZING AVERAGE (MESOR, M)
(top half) AND CIRCADIAN AMPLITUDE (A) (bottom half) OF DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE
OF RBS
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Fig. 4.



Fig. 5.

0
45
1967 5 11 1978 4 16 1989 3 22 2000 2 26 2011 2 1
TIME (Calendar Day)
C
i
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c
a
d
i
a
n

D
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A
m
p
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)
-3
47
97
M
E
S
O
R
(
b
e
a
t
s
/
m
n
)
32.9(31.4,34.4), 14.0(13.7,14.2), 8.5(8.2,8.8), 5.5(5.4,5.6), 4.2(4.1,4.3) y
48.8(38.7,58.9), 13.5(13.1,13.9), 8.0(7.7,8.4), 5.5(5.4,5.6), 4.2(4.1,4.3) y +t
17.7(16.7,18.7), [h]8.9(8.4,9.3), 14.5(12.7,16.2), 5.6(5.5,5.8) y +t2
* man, 20.5 years of age at start; increment and interval analyzed: 2 days; t: linear trend; t2: quadratic trend; h: fixed harmonic.
DIFFERENT MODELS OF PERIODS (t), WITHOUT OR WITH TRENDS (t),
CHARACTERIZING AVERAGE (MESOR) (top) AND CIRCADIAN DOUBLE AMPLITUDE
(2A) (bottom) OF HEART RATE OF RBS*
2011/2/1
0
25
1967 5 11 1978 4 16 1989 3 22 2000 2 26 2011 2 1
TIME (Calendar Date)
C
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-5
15
35
55
M
E
S
O
R
(
b
e
a
t
s
/
m
n
)
* man, 20.5 years of age at start; increment and interval analyzed: 2 days; t=linear trend
15.2(14.5,15.8), 6.72(6.48,6.96), 4.74(4.60,4.89),.996(.987,1.00) y +t
38.4(26.4,50.4), 14.9(12.7,17.0), 6.65(6.25,7.06), 1.00(.996,1.00) y +t
PERIODS, t, CHARACTERIZING AVERAGE (MESOR) AND DOUBLE CIRCADIAN
AMPLITUDE (2A) OF PULSE PRESSURE OF RBS*
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Fig. 6.


Fig. 7.

0
12
1967 5 11 1978 4 16 1989 3 22 2000 2 26 2011 2 1
TIME (Calendar Date)
C
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a
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(
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-2
8
18
M
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R
(
b
/
m
n
) 29.1(24.7,33.5), 14.1(13.7,14.4), 6.84(6.63,7.05) y +t2
31.3(24.4,38.1), 9.58(9.01,10.1), 5.05(4.94,5.17) y +t
* man, 20.5 years of age at start; increment and interval analyzed: 2 days
PERIODS, t, CHARACTERIZING AVERAGE (MESOR) AND DOUBLE CIRCADIAN
AMPLITUDE (2A) OF SELF-MEASURED BREATHING RATE OF RBS*
0
40
1967 5 11 1978 4 16 1989 3 22 2000 2 26 2011 2 1
TIME (Calendar Date)
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A
m
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(
L
/
m
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200
500
M
E
S
O
R

(
L
/
m
n
)
* man, 20.5 years of age at start; increment and interval analyzed: 2 days
11.0(10.6,11.4), 5.30(5.10,5.51) y +t3
25.2(20.0,30.5), 12.5(11.3,13.7), 5.17(4.91,5.42), 3.06(2.99,3.13) y +t2
75
PERIODS, t, CHARACTERIZING AVERAGE (MESOR) AND DOUBLE CIRCADIAN
AMPLITUDE (2A) OF SELF-MEASURED PEAK EXPIRATORY FLOW BY RBS*
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Table 1

Statistically significant periods (t) from nonlinearly extended cosinor in 6 variables of RBS,
a clinically healthy man self-measuring 5-6 times a day for 43.5 years*


*Age 20.5y at start. SBP: systolic blood pressure (average of 3); DBP: diastolic blood pressure
(average of 3); HR: heart rate/min; PP: pulse pressure; BR2m: breathing rate/2 minutes; PF: peak flow
(average of 3). 95% CI: 95% confidence intervals; SE: standard error; SqRt: square root; QuadRt: quadratic
root; [h]: fixed harmonic; t: linear trend; t
2
: quadratic linear trend; t
3
: cubic trend.

Period (95% CI) (years)
Tre
nd
Overa
ll SE
MESOR
SBP t 27.6 (26.3, 29.0) 13.8 (13.4, 14.3) 6.48 (6.40, 6.57) 1.00 (0.997, 1.01) - t 3.08
2A 4.06 (3.51, 4.61) 3.35 (2.82, 3.88) 3.32 (2.81, 3.82) 1.61 (1.11, 2.12) - - -
DBP t 24.5 (23.3, 25.7) 12.8 (12.6, 13.0) [h] 6.40 (6.31, 6.50) 10.2 (9.76, 10.7) - t 2.65
2A 2.61 (2.13, 3.08) 1.70 (1.20, 2.21) [h] 2.14 (1.71, 2.56) 1.83 (1.36, 2.31) - - -
HR t 32.9 (31.4, 34.4) 14.0 (13.7, 14.2) 8.49 (8.19, 8.79) 5.52 (5.46, 5.59) 4.18 (4.12, 4.24) - 5.27
t 48.8 (38.7, 58.9) 13.5 (13.1, 13.9) 8.03 (7.68, 8.38) 5.46 (5.39, 5.53) 4.21 (4.16, 4.26) t 4.85
2A 9.75 (8.82, 10.68) 9.32 (8.35, 10.29) 2.84 (1.85, 3.82) 5.62 (4.68, 6.56) 3.38 (2.46, 4.30) - -
2A 16.52 (10.34, 22.71) [h] 6.85 (5.87, 7.83) 2.48 (1.58, 3.58) 4.95 (4.06, 5.83) 3.68 (2.81, 4.55) - -
PP t 15.2 (14.5, 15.8) 6.72 (6.48, 6.96) 4.74 (4.60, 4.89) 0.996 (0.987, 1.00) - t 2.82
2A 2.24 (1.76, 2.71) 1.15 (0.68, 1.62) 0.93 (0.46, 1.40) 0.62 (0.16, 1.08) - - -
BR2
m
t 29.1 (24.7, 33.5) 14.1 (13.7, 14.4) 6.84 (6.63, 7.05) - - t
2
0.68
2A 0.76 (0.57, 0.94) 1.14 (1.03, 1.26) 0.31 (0.19, 0.42) - - - -
PF t 11.0 (10.6, 11.4) 5.30 (5.10, 5.51) - - - t
3
11.03
2A 6.09 (4.45, 7.73) 2.80 (1.16, 4.44) - - - - -
Double amplitude
SBP t 20.3 (17.2, 23.4) 8.88 (8.15, 9.60) 5.67 (5.35, 5.99) 1.00 (.999, 1.00)
-
t
3
8.16
2A 5.05 (3.46, 6.65) 2.25 (0.74, 3.76) 1.86 (0.41, 3.31) 6.48 (5.07, 7.90)
-
- -
DBP t 15.2 (12.7, 17.8) 12.8 (12.2, 13.3) [h] 6.39 (6.11, 6.66) -
-
t
2
3.94
2A 1.90 (0.58, 3.22) 0.98 (0.01, 1.94) [h] 1.16 (0.56, 1.76) -
-
-
HR t 17.7 (16.8, 18.7) 14.4 (12.7, 16.2) [h] 8.86 (8.38, 9.33) 5.64 (5.50, 5.79)
-
t
2
7.01
2A 3.53 (0, 7.08) 4.38 (1.83, 7.93) [h] 2.62 (1.39, 3.85) 3.31 (2.13, 4.49)
-
- -
PP t 38.4 (26.4, 50.4) 14.9 (12.7, 17.0) 6.65 (6.25, 7.06) 1.00 (0.996, 1.00)
-
t 4.42
2A 2.50 (1.75, 3.26) 1.21 (0.43, 1.99) 1.03 (0.29, 1.78) 2.02 (1.29, 2.75)
-
- -
BR2
m
t 31.3 (24.4, 38.1) 9.58 (9.01, 10.1) 5.05 (4.94, 5.17) -
-
t 1.29
2A 0.52 (0.32, 0.71) 0.41 (0.22, 0.61) 0.53 (0.33, 0.72) -
-
- -
PF t 25.2 (20.0, 30.5) 12.5 (11.3, 13.7) 5.17 (4.91, 5.42) 3.06 (2.99, 3.13)
-
t
2
8.57
2A 9.36 (6.51, 12.21) 4.17 (2.50, 5.85) 2.02 (0.51, 3.53) 3.33 (0.85, 3.81)
-
- -
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1. Marquardt DW. An algorithm for least-squares estimation of nonlinear parameters. J Soc Indust Appl
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7. Lockyer N. Simultaneous solar and terrestrial changes. Science 1903; 18: 611-623.
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9. Halberg F, Cornlissen G, Bernhardt K-H, Sampson M, Schwartzkopff O, Sonntag D. Egeson's
(George's) transtridecadal weather cycling and sunspots. Hist Geo Space Sci 2010; 1: 49-61.
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human heart rate: Selective infradian, notably multidecadal solar-physiologic BEL congruences. In:
Halberg F, Kenner T, Fiser B, Siegelova J. (Eds.) Proceedings, Noninvasive Methods in Cardiology,
Brno, Czech Republic, October 4-7, 2008. p. 204-213.
http://web.fnusa.cz/files/kfdr2008/sbornik_2008.pdf
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Regal P., Sothern R.B., Wendt H.W., Wang Z.R., Zeman M., Jozsa R., Singh R.B., Mitsutake G., Chibisov
S.M., Lee J., Holley D., Holte J.E., Sonkowsky R.P., Schwartzkopff O., Delmore P., Otsuka K., Bakken
E.E., Czaplicki J. International BIOCOS Group. Chronobiology's progress: season's appreciations 2004-
2005. Time-, frequency-, phase-, variable-, individual-, age- and site-specific chronomics. J Appl
Biomed 2006; 4: 1-38. http://www.zsf.jcu.cz/vyzkum/jab/4_1/halberg.pdf
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ZY, Weydahl A, Sothern RB, Siegelova J, Fiser B, Dusek J, Syutkina EV, Perfetto F, Tarquini R, Singh
RB, Rhees B, Lofstrom D, Lofstrom P, Johnson PWC, Schwartzkopff O, International BIOCOS Study
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Khalilov E. Chronobiology and chronomics: detecting and applying the cycles of nature. Biologist 2009;
56 (4): 209-214.



NEONATAL ANTHROPOMETRY IN MOSCOW BY THE LATE BORIS NIKITYUK
REVISITED GLOCALLY REVEALS A PARA-TRIDECADAL COMPONENT

Franz Halberg
1
, Stefano Sello
2
, Germaine Cornlissen
1

1
Halberg Chronobiology Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA;
2
Mathematical and Physical Models, Enel Research, Pisa, Italy

Aim. We here complement part of an earlier report of the time structure of neonatal variables
in data covering 112 years by a glocal analysis, involving both global analyses of time series as a
whole, and local analyses of sections of the data. We add the finding of a para-tridecadal Brckner-
Egeson-Lockyer (BEL) cycle in body length of newborn boys and girls and document its time
course by chronomic serial sections.
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Materials. Body weight and length and head circumference at birth were recorded from
random samples of 25-150 babies in Moscow, Russia, over 112 years. The major component
published in a first (global) analysis of the time series as a whole for body weight was of 63.02
years for boys with a CI (95% confidence interval) extending from 50.33 to 75.71 years, Figure 1
(1). In girls, body weight underwent a cycle of 64.35 years (CI: 40.91-87.67). Both boys and girls
showed an added circadecadal (Horrebow-Schwabe) component of much smaller amplitude which
was statistically significant only in girls (10.29 years; CI: 9.70-11.01). In birth weight, a major
component common to boys and girls is an about 63- to 64-year cycle, validated nonlinearly.
Figure 1 (1) also displays an about 10.2-year cycle (P=0.010). As to head circumference, the about
60-year component was dominant in boys and a longer cycle dominated in girls. Other components
found in the least squares spectra were circadidecadal signatures of the Hale cycle of sunspot
bipolarity (of about 20 years), present in body length and head circumference at birth.
The major component in neonatal body length in both genders was of about 50 years, a
Kondratiev cycle reported in economics (14) and found in the incidence of stroke in several
geographic locations (15).
Method. We applied the extended linear-nonlinear cosinor for global examination
complemented by chronobiologic serial sections (4-6).
Results. Table 1 summarizes the periods found in a more recent nonlinearly extended cosinor
analysis, prompted by results from wavelets on body length by one of us (SS). The table includes a
BEL, the period of 32.4 and 33.5 years in boys and girls, respectively.

Table 1
Period(s) (t) in body length (cm) at birth in Russia (1874-1985): data of Boris Nikityuk*
Boys
(overall standard error: 0.44)
Girls
(overall standard error: 0.47)
MESOR 52.224 (51.962, 52.687) 51.564 (51.288, 51.840)
Slope -0.017 (-0.027, -0.008) -0.015 (-0.025, -0.005)
t 1 (years) 53.671 (46.12, 61.23) 53.666 (42.00, 65.33)
Double amplitude 1.52 (0.74, 2.28) 1.32 (0.42, 2.22)
Acrophase -276 (-247, -305) -274 (-237, -311)
t 2 (years) 32.404 (29.35, 35.13) 33.487 (25.88, 41.09)
Double amplitude 0.76 (-0.00, 1.50) [0.42, 1.08] 0.86 (0.00, 1.74) [0.48, 1.24]
Acrophase -243 (-187, -300) -207 (-151, -263)
t 3 (years) 20.441 (18.31, 22.57) 21.217 (19.18, 23.25)
Double amplitude 0.84 (0.56, 1.10) 0.94 (0.62, 1.24)
Acrophase -184 (-129, -240) -158 (-109, -208)
* 95% confidence limits in are conservative; in the case of a very slight overlap of zero beyond the
second decimal, 1-parameter limits are given in.

The time course of the characteristics of three components characterizing body length at birth
is shown in Figures 2A and 2B. In these figures, the time course of acrophases shows greatest
stability for the about 50-year periods. Several of these periods show variations in amplitude. The
acrophase drifts may reflect drifts in periods.
Discussion. With respect to the recovery from the Little Ice Age, a prominent geophysicist
indicates the need to assess multidecadal periodicities, adding that they are "natural" (Syun-ichi
Akasofu's emphasis) phenomena and that they have to be taken into account "in order to determine
the contribution of the manmade greenhouse effect" (7). By contrast, "Identifying [multidecadals]
correctly and accurately", also Akasofu's plea, is hardly the explicit concern of others focusing on
the length of the solar cycle as an indicator of solar activity associated with climate (8) that reveals
a para-tridecadal

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Fig. 1. Solar cycles' signatures in a biospheric magnetometer: the human neonate (4). See Figures 2A and
2B for the about 33-year BEL, that was missed until it appeared prominently after 1930 in wavelets,
computed by one of us (SS). Halberg.
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Fig. 2A. Body length at birth in boys is characterized by 3 main spectral components, some with
intermittent reductions in amplitude (distance between the 2 curves in sections 2, 5 and 8). Didecadal
(top section) and tridecadal (middle section) but not (except for the first few intervals analyzed with limited
data) quindecadal (bottom section) cycles show relatively short spans of aeolian loss of statistical
significance in rows 4 and 7 and some drifting acrophases, the latter in keeping with changes in period.
I nterval: 20 years; increment: 1.00 year. Halberg.
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Fig. 2B. Body length at birth in girls is characterized by 3 main spectral components, some with
intermittent reductions in amplitude (distance between the 2 curves in sections 2, 5 and 8). Didecadal (top
section) and tridecadal (middle section) but not (except for the first few intervals with limited data)
quindecadal (bottom section) cycles show relatively short spans of aeolian loss of statistical significance in
sections 4 and 7 and some drifting acrophases, the latter in keeping with changes in period. I nterval: 20
years; increment: 1.00 year. Halberg.
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Fig. 3. BEL cycle in variations of air temperature for 1850-2008: (a) original data, (b) time series without
the trend, and (c) spectrum of time series obtained after trend removal. The dashed arrows in (c) indicate
modulation-induced beats of around 64-year oscillations (9). Halberg.
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Fig. 4. Variations in acrophases of time series from Brckner [1890] calculated with the help of the
cosinor method for 35-year (left) and near 35-year (right) periods of different parameters:
(a) air temperature, (b) length of the ice-free period in rivers, (c) rains, (d) wine harvest,
(e) frequency of cold winters, and (f) sunspots. The acrophases were estimated in a sliding window of
105 years with a step of 5 years. The central part indicates the values of periods, confidence intervals, and
level of statistical significance (see text). Halberg.

Brckner-Egeson-Lockyer (BEL) cycle in environmental temperature, human affairs and global
warming, Figure 3 (9; cf. 10-18).
Readers may be interested to know that nonphotic recurrent changes, such as the BEL, are
aeolian, coming and going in terms of detectability and, when present, waxing and waning in
amplitude and drifting in phase and frequency, bifurcating or splitting into more parts and
reuniting, a nonstationary behavior that earned them the title of quasi-periodicity (19; cf. 20), to
which Julius Bartels added an explicit reference to quasi-persistence (21). Scholarly exceptions
notwithstanding (16, 17, 22), the BEL is today mostly forgotten and indeed it is difficult to define it
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in terms of a point estimate of its period, which is spread over more than 30-40 years, already in a
meta-analysis of Brckner's original extensive data (9, 23), Figure 4 (cf. also 12). Hence the BEL
was defined as a cycle with a 95% confidence interval of the period that falls between 30 and 40
years and called a para- (= near, beside) tridecadal cycle. Most recently, we became even more
liberal when, with the addition of 5 years of longitudinal data (of WRB), a BEL had a 95%
confidence interval of the period extending with its upper limit not quite to 30 years, while it was a
clear BEL with only about 30 years of data (24). We submit for consideration the term "para-
tridecadal", with exact limits for the "para" to be specified by further experience. The BEL is found
not only in environmental temperature records, Figure 3, that are to be considered by scholars in
global warming, but further in human military-political, economic and other affairs (9; cf. 10-18).
Conclusion. Meta-analyses by the nonlinearly extended cosinor which we owe to the late
Donald Marquardt (25), which is complemented by a chronomic serial section (4-6), revealed a
para-tridecadal component with its uncertainty by the extended cosinor. Moreover, when the time
course of this trans-tridecadal is followed by chronobiologic serial sections, it is also revealed to be
statistically significant before 1930 with one interruption, in keeping with its intermittent
nonstationary aeolian behavior. The serial section complements the wavelet by focus upon a
specific frequency. Before conclusions concerning causality can be considered, a glocal analysis
will have to seek opportunities for a subtraction and addition approach, which depends upon
cooperation by the environment (20, 26).

Footnote
Part of the general discussion was submitted on February 27, 2011, to the journal Natural
Science by GC and FH under the title "Para-tridecadal cycles in environmental temperature, human
affairs and global warming". The new analyses were prompted by results from wavelet analysis by
one of us (SS, 27).

REFERENCES:
1. Halberg F., Cornlissen G., Otsuka K., Syutkina E..V, Masalov A., Breus T., Viduetsky A., Grafe A.,
Schwartzkopff O. Chronoastrobiology: neonatal numerical counterparts to Schwabe's 10.5 and Hales
21-year sunspot cycles. In memoriam Boris A. Nikityuk. Int J Prenat Perinat Psychol Med 2001; 13:
257-280.
2. Kondratiev N.D. The long waves in economic life. Review of Economic Statistics 1935; 17(6): 105-
115.
3. Halberg .F, Cornlissen G., Otsuka K., Watanabe Y., Katinas G.S., Burioka N., Delyukov A., Gorgo Y.,
Zhao Z.Y., Weydahl A., Sothern R.B., Siegelova J., Fiser B., Dusek J., Syutkina E.V., Perfetto F.,
Tarquini R., Singh R.B., Rhees B., Lofstrom D., Lofstrom P., Johnson P.W.C., Schwartzkopff O.,
International BIOCOS Study Group. Cross-spectrally coherent ~10.5- and 21-year biological and
physical cycles, magnetic storms and myocardial infarctions. Neuroendocrinol Lett 2000; 21: 233-258.
4. Halberg F. Chronobiology: methodological problems. Acta med rom 1980; 18: 399-440.
5. Cornlissen G., Halberg F. Chronomedicine. In: Armitage P, Colton T. (Eds.) Encyclopedia of
Biostatistics, 2nd ed. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons Ltd; 2005. p. 796-812.
6. Refinetti R., Cornlissen G., Halberg F. Procedures for numerical analysis of circadian rhythms.
Biological Rhythm Research 2007; 38 (4): 275-325. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09291010600903692
7. Akasofu S-i. On the recovery from the Little Ice Age. Natural Sci 2010; 2: 1211-1224.
8. Friis-Christensen E., Lassen K. Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely
associated with climate. Science 1991; 254: 698-700.
9. Halberg F, Cornlissen G, Sothern RB, Czaplicki J, Schwartzkopff O. Thirty-five-year climatic cycle in
heliogeophysics, psychophysiology, military politics, and economics. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and
Oceanic Physics 2010; 46 (7): 844-864. (Back-translation from Geophysical Processes and Biosphere
2009; 8 [2]: 13-42.)
10. Egeson C. Egeson's weather system of sun-spot causality: being original researches in solar and
terrestrial meteorology. Sydney: Turner & Henderson; 1889. 63 pp.
11. Halberg F, Cornlissen G, Bernhardt K-H, Sampson M, Schwartzkopff O, Sonntag D. Egeson's
(George's) transtridecadal weather cycling and sunspots. Hist Geo Space Sci 2010; 1: 49-61.
12. Brckner E. Klimaschwankungen seit 1700 nebst Beobachtungen ber die Klimaschwankungen der
Diluvialzeit. Wien und Olmtz: E. Hlzel; 1890. 324 pp. (Penck A, Hrsg. Geographische
Abhandlungen, Band IV.)
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13. Lockyer WJS. The solar activity 1833-1900. Proc Roy Soc Lond 1901; 68: 285-300.
14. Lockyer N. Simultaneous solar and terrestrial changes. Science 1903; 18: 611-623.
15. Liznar J. ber die 33-jhrige Periode der Sonnenflecken, Meteorologische Zeitschrift 1902; 19: 237-
238.
16. Stehr N, von Storch H, eds (Stehr B, Gamlin G, trans). Eduard Brckner: the sources and consequences
of climate change and climate variability in historical times. Dordrecht/Boston: Kluwer Academic
Publishers; 2000. 338 p.
17. Stehr N, von Storch H. Eduard Brckner's ideas relevant in his time and today. GKSS-
Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Geesthacht, XXXV and 393 pp, 2006.
18. Scafetta N. Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications. J
Atmos Solar-Terr Phys 2010; 72: 951-970.
19. Sello S. On the sixty-year periodicity in climate and astronomical sites. arXiv:1105.3885v1
[physics.data-an] 19 May 2011.
20. Halberg F, Cornlissen G, Katinas G, Tvildiani L, Gigolashvili M, Janashia K, Toba T, Revilla M,
Regal P, Sothern RB, Wendt HW, Wang ZR, Zeman M, Jozsa R, Singh RB, Mitsutake G, Chibisov SM,
Lee J, Holley D, Holte JE, Sonkowsky RP, Schwartzkopff O, Delmore P, Otsuka K, Bakken EE,
Czaplicki J, International BIOCOS Group. Chronobiology's progress: season's appreciations 2004-2005.
Time-, frequency-, phase-, variable-, individual-, age- and site-specific chronomics. J Appl Biomed
2006; 4: 1-38. http://www.zsf.jcu.cz/vyzkum/jab/4_1/halberg.pdf
21. Bartels J. Statistical studies of quasi-periodic variables: with illustrative examples from geophysics.
Washington DC: Carnegie Institution of Washington; 1959. (Reprints of three papers from Terrestrial
Magnetism and Atmospheric Electricity: Terrestrial magnetic activity and its relations to solar
phenomena. Terr Mag Atmosph Electr 1932; 37: 1-52; Statistical methods for research on diurnal
variations, Terr Mag Atmosph Electr 1932; 37: 291-302; Random fluctuations, persistence, and quasi-
persistence in geophysical and cosmical periodicities. Terr Mag Atmosph Electr 1935; 40: 1-60.)
22. Hoyt DV, Schatten KH. The Role of the Sun in Climate Change. New York/Oxford: Oxford University
Press; 1997. 279 pp.
23. Halberg F, Cornlissen G, Czaplicki J, Prabhakaran Nayar SR, Siegelova J. Brckner-Egeson-Lockyer
(BEL) climate cycle in original Brckner's, Lockyer's and follow-up data. In: Halberg F, Kenner T,
Fiser B, Siegelova J. (Eds.) Proceedings, Noninvasive Methods in Cardiology, Brno, Czech Republic,
October 4-7, 2008. p. 74-89. http://web.fnusa.cz/files/kfdr2008/sbornik_2008.pdf
24. Hillman D, Cornlissen G, Halberg F, Best WR. Infradians in human blood pressure, heart rate and
body weight during 35 years of aging. In preparation.
25. Marquardt DW. An algorithm for least-squares estimation of nonlinear parameters. J Soc Indust Appl
Math 1963; 11: 431-441.
26. Cornlissen G, Halberg F, Wendt HW, Bingham C, Sothern RB, Haus E, Kleitman E, Kleitman N,
Revilla MA, Revilla M Jr, Breus TK, Pimenov K, Grigoriev AE, Mitish MD, Yatsyk GV, Syutkina EV.
Resonance of about-weekly human heart rate rhythm with solar activity change. Biologia (Bratislava)
1996; 51: 749-756.
27. Sello S, Cornelissen G, Halberg F. Para-tridecadal (BEL) cycle in neonatal anthropometric data from
the late Boris Nikityuk. In preparation.


DIFFERENT APPROACHES REVEAL DIFFERENT BLOOD
PRESSURE BEHAVIOR IN DEPRESSION

Germaine Cornelissen
1
, Franz Halberg
1
, Kuniaki Otsuka
2
, Karl Hecht
3

1
Halberg Chronobiology Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
2
Tokyo Women's Medical University, Medical Center East, Tokyo, Japan
3
International Center for Health- and Ecology-Technology, Berlin, Germany

Aim. To determine whether changes in blood pressure (BP) are observed in association with
depression and whether around-the-clock measurements interpreted chronobiologically can lead to
conclusions different from those derived from spotchecks under special conditions.
Background. Hecht et al. (1) recently reported that in 425 patients with a resting systolic BP
of <110 mmHg and not treated for high BP, they verified the triad of low BP, cervical spine
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syndrome, and depressive disorders. BP was measured in a state of relaxation for 10 minutes at 1-
minute intervals, using the lowest value among the last 5. No circadian stage of measurement was
indicated. Fixing the time of day is not necessarily a sufficient precaution since opposite results
such as changes with age over 4 decades have been observed with measurements taken at different
circadian stages by the same subject (2).
Subjects and Methods. As part of the project on the BIOsphere and the COSmos
(BIOCOS), 182 week-long profiles of around-the-clock measurements at 30-minute intervals by
day and 60-minute intervals by night have been obtained from residents of Uruasu, Japan (3).
Depression scores were obtained according to the GDS scale (4) from 170 subjects once (GDS1),
141 of them also providing a second score (GDS2) about a year later. Each BP record was analyzed
by the extended cosinor (5). A two-component model consisting of cosine curves with periods of
24 and 12 hours was fitted by least squares, yielding estimates of the MESOR (M, Midline
Estimating Statistic Of Rhythm, a rhythm-adjusted mean), as well as double amplitudes (2A, a
measure of the predictable extent of change within a cycle) and acrophases (|, a measure of the
timing of overall high values recurring in each cycle) of each component. The M and 24h-A of
systolic (S) and diastolic (D) BP and heart rate (HR) were compared by Student t test between
subjects with a GDS score 5 (depressed) or a GDS score <5. These parameters were also linearly
regressed with respect to the GDS score. Student t tests were also applied to the predicted low and
high daily values computed as M-A and M+A, respectively, for the pool of all subjects and
separately for men and women.
Results. Depressed subjects had a higher SBP-M (132.1 vs. 125.2 mmHg; P=0.002) and
tended to have a higher DBP-M (79.8 vs. 77.4 mmHg, P=0.054), Figure 1. The increase in SBP-M
with GDS1 is confirmed (r=0.171, P=0.025), Figure 2. SBP-M is also positively correlated with the
GDS1
2
(r=0.176, P=0.022). The higher SBP-M in depressed subjects is observed numerically in
both genders but only reaches borderline statistical significance in women. Numerically, both the
nadir and the peak BP values are invariably higher in depressed subjects, but the differences are not
statistically significant.


Fig. 1. Patients with a higher depression score have, on average, a higher blood pressure
(measured around-the-clock for 7 days).

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
No Yes No Yes
Depressed? (GDS1 5)
B
P
-
M
E
S
O
R

(
m
m
H
g
)
Systolic Blood Pressure Diastolic Blood Pressure
Student t: 3.085, P=0.002 1.940, P=0.054
mean SE
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Fig. 2. Systolic Blood Pressure tends to be elevated in patients with a higher depression score.

Discussion and Conclusion. Depressed subjects were also found to have a smaller 24-hour
HR-A (6.9 vs. 7.7 beats/min, P=0.084). The HR-A was negatively correlated with GDS1 (r=-0.215,
P=0.005), Figure 3. HR-A is also negatively correlated with GDS2 (r=-0.179, P=0.034). The
smaller HR-A is found only in men but not in women.


Fig.3. The circadian amplitude of HR is decreased in patients with a higher depression score.
Urausu (182 subjects)
90
110
130
150
170
190
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
GDS1 (score)
S
B
P
:

M
E
S
O
R

(
m
m
H
g
)
r=0.171, P=0.025
Urausu (182 subjects)
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
GDS1 (score)
H
R
:

2
4
-
h
o
u
r

A
m
p
l
i
t
u
d
e

(
b
e
a
t
s
/
m
i
n
)
r=-0.215, P=0.005
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Figure 4. Lower BP with lower mood ratings in a 41-year old woman with bipoal disorder, monitored
longitudinally. BP MESOR is rhythm-adjusted mean value of around-the-clock measurements at
30-minute intervals over consecutive days.

Whether ethnic differences, the fact that the Urausu database includes many elderly people,
and/or the fact that 7-day ABPM instead of a few resting measurements were used in Urausu
account for the discrepancy between the two studies remains to be investigated.
Reasons underlying a higher depression score may also play a role and may differ in the
elderly versus younger people. In the case of a 41-year old woman diagnosed with bipolar II
disorder who monitored her BP longitudinally around-the-clock for several months (6), the BP-M
tended to be lower when mood ratings were lower (SBP: r=0.563, P<0.001; DBP: r=0.491,
P<0.001) (Figure 4), in keeping with findings by Hecht et al. (1). Also worth of further
MJR (F, 41y)
112
116
120
124
128
7 11 15 19 23 27
Mood Rating (AU)
S
B
P
-
M
E
S
O
R

(
m
m
H
g
)
r=0.563, P<0.001
MJR (F, 41y)
64
68
72
76
80
7 11 15 19 23 27
Mood Rating (AU)
D
B
P
-
M
E
S
O
R

(
m
m
H
g
)
r=0.491, P<0.001
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investigation is the finding both in this case and in the Urausu database of an amplified about 7-day
component associated with a higher depression score (3).

REFERENCES:
1. Hecht K, Scherf H, Kehl K, Meffert P. An ignored factor in depression pathogenesis: chronic co-
morbidity of low blood pressure and cervical spine symptoms. Herald of the International Academy of
Science 2010; 2: 5-11.
2. Halberg F, Sothern RB, Cornlissen G, Czaplicki J. Chronomics, human time estimation, and aging.
Clinical Interventions in Aging 2008; 3: 749-760.
3. Yamanaka G, Otsuka K, Hotta N, Murakami S, Kubo Y, Matsuoka O, Takasugi E, Yamanaka T,
Shinagawa M, Nunoda S, Nishimura Y, Shibata K, Saitoh H, Nishinaga M, Ishine M, Wada T, Okumiya
K, Matsubayashi K, Yano S, Ishizuka S, Ichihara K, Cornelissen G, Halberg F. Depressive mood is
independently related to stroke and cardiovascular events in a community. Biomed & Pharmacother
2005; 59 (Suppl 1): S31-S39.
4. Yesavage JA, Brink TL, Rose TL, Lum O, Huang V, Adey M, Leirer VO. Development and validation of a
geriatric depression screening scale: a preliminary report. J Psychiat Res 1983; 17: 37-49.
5. Cornelissen G, Halberg F. Chronomedicine. In: Armitage P, Colton T (Eds.) Encyclopedia of
Biostatistics, 2
nd
ed. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons Ltd; 2005. p. 796-812.
6. Rawson MJ, Cornelissen G, Holte J, Katinas G, Eckert E, Siegelova J, Fiser B, Halberg F. Circadian and
circaseptan components of blood pressure and heart rate during depression. Scripta medica 2000; 73: 117-
124.



FROM JANEWAY TO C-ABPM:
AN AUTOMATIC INTERNATIONAL MULTILINGUAL CHRONOMIC WEBSITE

Othild Schwartzkopff
1
, Germaine Cornlissen
1
, Ellis Nolley
2
, Larry A. Beaty
2
, Franz Halberg
1

1
Halberg Chronobiology Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA;
2
Phoenix Study Group www.phoenix.tc-ieee.org

A broad spectrum of photic and non-photic environmental cycles is mirrored in sociological,
epidemiological and psychophysiological variables like blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR),
examined in decades-long around-the-clock still-accumulating time series. Cycles in spirituality
(1), crime (2), war (3, 4), revolution (5), and terrorism (6) are currently mapped by a project on The
BIOsphere and the COSmos, BIOCOS, which also provides worldwide, on a small scale, cost-free
analyses of 7-day around-the-clock BP and HR data for detecting Vascular Variability Anomalies
(VVAs) or if replicated for weeks Disorders (VVDs) that can coexist to bring about Vascular
Variability Syndromes (VVSs), Figure 1 (7).
Chronomics implemented by BIOCOS aligns and examines associations among the time
structures in and around us. Each structure, environmental or matchingly organismic and, in the
sense of similar cycle length, reciprocal, consists of deterministic and other chaos, cycles and
trends (the trends often parts of cycles longer than the length of an available time series).
Chronomic analyses by BIOCOS assess strain (as a quantifiable response to stress, e.g., as a
deviant circadian and/or other rhythm characteristics) and cardiovascular disease risk based on a
chronobiologic diagnosis and the timed treatment of the individual's VVAs, or if they persist,
VVDs and VVSs if they persist coexisting (8). The same data pool for the individual's self-
surveillance in chronobiologically-interpreted ABPM and other variables also was used for
exploring associations of abnormality with human-made as well as natural environmental
cataclysms, including terrorism (6) and earthquakes (9).


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Fig. 1. Abstract definition of Vascular Variability Anomalies (VVAs) or Disorders (VVDs)
when confirmed in repeated 7-day records.

This transdisciplinary line of research, beyond seismology is a challenge for a website's
(Figure 2) eventual human team which is also to manage any problems relating to the individuals
health arising in the automatic analyses. The same multilingual website should further serve
educational tasks related to the routine health care services and further for examining biospheric
associations with space weather, monitored for the benefit of the greater public. This combined
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personalized clinical service and space weather analysis could be done on a large scale by an
automatic website receiving data from self-surveilling individuals for the detection of VVAs as
measures of strain, of VVDs and VVSs, and also from governmental sources (such as state health
departments) on natality, morbidities, mortalities and crime, for carrying out research on harbingers
of VVAs. VVDs, and VVSs for individuals and the possible use of the same data as warning signals
for populations. Scholars of geochange to whom this website proposal is to be submitted for a
consensus along with inferential statisticians can play a pivotal role in optimizing the individual's
health care: current exclusive reliance on spotcheck-based intermittent professional consultations,
sometimes at long intervals, even of a year or longer, using experience and intuition to bridge the gap
of data, can be complemented by care based on added continuous computer-aided sequentially (e.g.,
weekly CUSUM) examined as-one-goes self- and population-surveillance, the latter by the data flow
from government sources, such as health and police departments. Further details, see (10, 11).


Fig. 2. Website for health self-surveillance and for monitoring the environment.


REFERENCES:
1. Starbuck S., Cornelissen G., Halberg F. Is motivation influenced by geomagnetic activity? Biomed &
Pharmacother 2002; 56 (Suppl 2): 289s-297s.
2. Halberg F., Otsuka K., Katinas G., Sonkowsky R., Regal P., Schwartzkopff O., Jozsa R., Olah A., Zeman
M., Bakken E.E., Cornelissen G. A chronomic tree of life: ontogenetic and phylogenetic 'memories' of
primordial cycles - keys to ethics. Biomed & Pharmacother 2004; 58 (Suppl 1): S1-S11.
3. Chizhevsky [Tchijevsky] AL (de Smitt VP, trans and condensed). Physical factors of the historical
process. Cycles 1971; 22: 11-27.
4. Wheeler R.H. War 599 B.C.-1950 A.D. Indexes of International and Civil War Battles of the World.
New York: Foundation for the Study of Cycles; 1951. 15 pp.
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5. Ertel S. Space weather and revolutions: Chizhevsky's heliobiological claim scrutinized. Studia
Psychologica 1996; 39: 3-22.
6. Halberg F., Cornelissen G., Sothern R.B., Katinas G.S., Schwartzkopff O., Otsuka K. Cycles tipping the
scale between death and survival (= "life"). Progress of Theoretical Physics 2008; Suppl. 173: 153-181.
7. Cornelissen G., Halberg .F, Bakken E.E., Singh R.B., Otsuka K., Tomlinson B., Delcourt A., Toussaint
G., Bathina S., Schwartzkopff O., Wang Z.R., Tarquini R., Perfetto F., Pantaleoni G.C., Jozsa R.,
Delmore P.A., Nolley E. 100 or 30 years after Janeway or Bartter, Healthwatch helps avoid "flying
blind". Biomed & Pharmacother 2004; 58 (Suppl 1): S69-S86.
8. Halberg F., Cornelissen G., Otsuka K., Siegelova J., Fiser B., Dusek J., Homolka P., Sanchez de la
Pena S., Singh RB, BIOCOS project. Extended consensus on means and need to detect vascular
variability disorders (VVDs) and vascular variability syndromes (VVSs). Leibniz-Online Nr. 5, 2009
(http://www2.hu-berlin.de/leibniz-so zietaet/journal/archiv_5_09.html). 35 pp.
9. Watanabe Y., Halberg F., Otsuka K., Cornelissen G. Nonseismic antecedent of an earthquake: dividend
from chronobiologically interpreted ambulatory blood pressure surveillance? This issue.
10. Beaty L.A. The status quo of chronobiologic 7-day/24-hour monitoring of blood pressure and heart rate.
Geronto-Geriatrics: Int J Gerontology-Chronome Geriatrics 2008; 11: 155.
11. Beaty L.A. Web-enabled software to complement affordable automatic hardware: Phoenix website.
Geronto-Geriatrics: Int J Gerontology-Chronome Geriatrics 2008; 11: 156-158.




THE NEONATE, A PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE MAGNETORECEPTOR?
POPULATION RHYTHMS REVEAL CYCLES

E.V. Syutkina
1
, G. Cornelissen
2
, M. Mitish
1
, M.V. Narogan
1
, A.V. Surgyk
1
, O.S. Krylova
1
,
A. Masalov
3
, O. Schwartzkopff
2
, F. Halberg
2

1
Institute of Pediatrics, Scientific Center for Childrens Health, Academy of Medical Sciences,
Moscow, Russia;
2
Halberg Chronobiology Center, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA;
3
Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow, Russia
To determine already in the newborn the risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD)
later in life, we monitored the blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) of babies around the clock at
hourly or shorter intervals in Minneapolis, Moscow, Brno, Milan and Tokyo (1-6). A list of
findings in 85 published titles from the cooperation of Muscovites and Minnesotans is available,
among others, from corne001@umn.edu. During 1985-1986, on 161 babies, the circadian
amplitude of blood pressure (BP), albeit small, was larger in babies with a positive than in those
with a negative family history of high BP and/or other CVD, in keeping with a similar finding in
children. In 1987-89 we could not find this difference, Figure 1 (7).
We assumed that the newborn's circadian BP rhythm may be modulated by one or several
infradian cycles with long period(s) and that this modulation affected newborns' CVD risk
differently as a function of family CVD-history. In the following years we found a cycle with a
95% confidence interval of the period overlapping 10 years in the MESOR (Midline-Estimating
Statistic Of Rhythm) of 527 babies studied over only 8 years (8