Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2013
Navigating
1
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Table of Contents Step out of the comfort zone......................................................................................................... 3 KEY CHARTS.............................................................................................................................. 4 Step out of the comfort zone......................................................................................................... 6 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Downgrade Singapore to Neutral .............................................................................. 6 1.2 Singapore has its own set of problems ...................................................................... 6 1.3 Polarisation in valuation multiples & 2013 strategies ............................................... 6 1.4 What are 2013s big risks? ......................................................................................... 6 CHALLENGES IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ..................................................................... 7 2.1 Intermediate challenges are still daunting ............................................................. 7 2.2 Oil prices and interest rates........................................................................................ 7 2.3 Singapore has its share of headaches ......................................................................... 8 2.4 Coping with costlier labour .................................................................................. 9 2.5 and rising rentals .................................................................................................. 10 2.6 Stress on small businesses is telling ........................................................................ 11 2.7 Themes to consider for stock selection .................................................................... 11 SECTOR VIEWS, STOCK PREFERENCES................................................................... 13 3.1 Financials ................................................................................................................. 13 3.2 Property.................................................................................................................... 15 3.3 REITs ....................................................................................................................... 16 3.4 Commodities ............................................................................................................ 18 3.5 Capital Goods .......................................................................................................... 21 3.6 Telecommunications ................................................................................................ 23 3.7 Transport .................................................................................................................. 26 3.8 Gaming & Others ..................................................................................................... 27 VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................... 29 4.1 Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight; cheap but lacking growth ...................... 29 4.2 Polarisation of valuation multiples .......................................................................... 30 4.3 Step out of the comfort zone .................................................................................... 31
2.
3.
4.
SINGAPORE
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
LONG TERM
Conviction
CIMB Analyst
Kenneth Ng CFA
T (65) 62108610 E kenneth.ng@cimb.com
Within the Singapore market, our main recommendation is to drift out of yields and hunt for safe growth at a reasonable price. Although global growth is slow, fears of a China hard landing is receding. Any breakup in Europe seems less imminent and the US should look beyond its fiscal cliff after 1Q13. Ahead, investors could price out doomsday scenarios and stretch for growth. Singapore could lag as it is not associated with growth.
Polarisation of valuations
Defensive stocks have gotten expensive vs. cyclicals. The FSSTI is 10% below its 4Q10 high but REITs are at their 4Q10 P/BV highs. Some consumer stocks have hit even higher valuations while big laggards have been commodity and transport stocks. Banks are in-between their 2009-10 P/BV levels. Property stocks vary: CAPL looks cheap, CityDev is still expensive. Capital Goods was looking rich till its recent selldown; we now spot value. We advocate a shift out of REITs into visible growth.
DBS Group
Cheapest Singapore bank with the right SingaporeGreater China profile. Lending should return with trade. Margin pressure will be lesser, without deposit-funding constraints. Best poised to capture IB fees from a booming debt capital market in Singapore.
Wilmar
The commodity sector has been the worst performing sector of 2012. Wilmar is our pick in this unloved space. Stock is trading 50% below its 3-year P/BV. Its oilseed and grains division is turning around with guidance of better timing of purchases.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES. INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Materials
48%
Rental
38%
17%
7%
2.8x 2.6x
Core ROE
2.4x Current P/BV 2.2x 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x 1.4x 1.2x 1.0x
13 02 14 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 nnnnnnnnnnnnn-Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 1 -Ja 31 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Forecast period
Sector ratings
Top Picks
UOL
Ezion
Commodities Others
Noble
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Singapore faces a higher inflation rate and slower economic growth as the government allows in fewer foreign workers. A tight labor market has hindered the expansion plans for many companies, some businesses may leave Singapore a growing demand for workers should boost wages, which will increase business costs, undermine competitiveness and quicken inflation.
Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
90 80 70 60 Jan-08
0 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
On interest rates, our regional economists believe that the US Feds resolve to keep interest rates low till 2015 will not be shaken i.e. rates will stay depressed for the whole of 2013. On our part, we do not question the consensus view of low interest rates but rather, are wary that the US could end up raising its debt ceiling again. In the developed world, all that money that had been stuffed into the system by central banks has failed to get banks lending mechanism going. The banks are afraid, need to build up capital and liquidity, while the public is over-indebted. We are wary of the time when the negative ramifications of money printing will manifest themselves, be it in 2013, 2014 or 2015. Next year,
7
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
a slow, intermittently growing environment could make central banks push even harder on QE, plausibly culminating in a future when people choose to opt out of US$ bonds and cash. In our opinion, rising inflation expectations are a tail risk, even if this is far from the consensus view. With it comes the risk of rising interest rates.
250
11.2% CAGR
200
7.6% CAGR
2,000 1 ,000 0
0 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 50
SOURCE: CPF
Figure 8: S$ NEER: MAS is expected to focus on inflation concerns, rather than growth
NEER 112 Stronger S$
Liquidity-flushed environment
15
16.5
110
108
104
3.1
3.2
102
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
100 Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Higher property stamp duties for foreigners have so far capped further inflows into property, but have not entirely doused the enthusiasm for S$ assets and liquidity inflows. The inflows have merely percolated into bond markets, REITs and alternative yield instruments. The Singapore bond market has been a prime beneficiary this year. Total debt issuance has broken the record volumes of 2010. All these inflows have been propping up the S$ exchange rate. While a stronger currency benefits citizens in general, capital inflows promote inflationary pressures and could hurt Singapores international competitiveness via currency appreciation. Singapore is getting increasingly expensive. In recent results, some manufacturing companies suffered from forex translation as their receipts are in U$ while costs are in S$. Another data point is hotel bookings. CDL-HT recently guided that booking visibility for its hotels has turned poorer as business travelers defer bookings to the last minute. We reckon this has been caused by belt-tightening among corporates (affecting business travel) as well as the high cost of hotel rooms, after both the appreciation of hotel rates and the S$.
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Our economist, Song Seng Wun, believes that the tight labour market is here to stay. Although the government has narrowed its 2012 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% (from 1.5-2.5%) and trimmed its 2013 GDP growth projection to 1-3%, the lower forecasts do not necessarily imply higher unemployment prospects. The economy is on track to create about 115k new jobs this year (123k in 2011) despite slower economic growth. Overall unemployment could stay at 1.9%. In fact, Song estimates that about 110k new jobs could be created in 2013, with the service sector accounting for about 70% of that job creation. Overall consumer price inflation is expected to remain firm. Inflation will stem from the pass-through of higher business costs (rentals and wages) to consumer-service prices. For 2013, we expect CPI inflation to average 4%, within the official forecast of 3.5-4.5% (2012E: 4.7%, 2011: 5.2%). As inflation remains elevated and a tight labour market feeds into higher wages and service costs, the MAS should maintain its policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the S$NEER policy band well into 2013 and beyond.
Figure 12: Jobs created and GDP growth (%): slower growth has not affected employment creation
Persons 80000 %y oy 25
20
6
60000
15
40000
10
4
20000
5
2
0 -5
-20000
-10
Mfg 1Q07
Construction 1Q08
Svcs 1Q09
Headline Inflation
-15
-2 Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
10
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
5500
Rental
4500
350 300 250 200 150 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Other operating costs Financing Governm ent com pliance/charges Advertisem ent & m arketing
There are implications for Singapore stocks, particularly for the banks. In a plentiful-liquidity environment, coupled with a rising S$ (consensus view), we doubt that the property market will correct dramatically, suddenly. The labour market remains tight even if unemployment may climb in the finance industry. Employment is backstopped by a broadening of the service industry to other non-financial sectors, which is a positive. Mortgage on banks books are on average, at 50-60% loan-to-value ratios, so banks should be able to withstand a fall in property prices. Obviously, the big risk would come from a sudden spike in interest rates or a quick step-up in unemployment rates, neither of which is deem as a high probability at the moment. Instead, we believe that credit-quality strains for banks are likely to perpetuate from SME lending in 2013.
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
are still trading at large-enough discounts to their NAV must command attention, especially after the strong performance of REITs which are now trading above their book values. Another growing consideration must be how investors can position for improving China dynamics. While most market participants nurse a justified degree of skepticism on Chinese statistics, it is hard to argue with the general trend of the recent plethora of PMIs, monetary aggregates, real retail sales and infrastructure spending (e.g. railways), all of which suggest a nascent revival of growth. Singapore companies that have a China angle must be worth considering. Growth at reasonable price: ASEAN consumer stocks have done well this year, being proxies for more stable sources of demand. Investors preferences for such earnings will not vanish overnight. The tougher act is to find affordable stocks now, to be positioned for a ramp-up of infrastructure investment and consumption in ASEAN. We call this a growth at reasonable price strategy. Unloved cyclicals with semblance of downside support: Today, there is valuation polarisation between consumer stocks and shaky, global-demand proxies. With the task of finding affordable consumer stocks increasingly a challenge, the risk-reward seems to favour cyclicals that are: 1) close to some sort of bottom-value support; and 2) have the scope for a good earnings quarter that can be meaningful for share-price performances. It is time to stretch out for growth. Yields with the right catalysts: REITs are well-owned and one has to start to be very selective with them. Although yield spreads are still wide, that has to be view in the context that interest rates are now exceptionally low. The overarching negative for the sector is potentially rising interest rates some time in future, though that seems to be a risk further out in time. It is a sector that we would opt to reduce exposure. The nearer-term negative catalyst for REITs would be non-accretive acquisitions. Companies to avoid are those with revenue highly dependent on the well-being of global demand or face growing overcapacity. Shipping and airlines are longstanding examples. CPO processors based in Indonesia are more recent new examples of industries that will struggle with upcoming surplus capacity. These stocks are cheap but will stay cheap. Pinning your hopes on any V-shape recovery today is blind hope. Pure operating leverage is certainly not favoured in this environment.
12
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
NEUTRAL
Pot ent ial risks t hat can t rigger underperformance Business cost pressures could trigger an increase in bad debts. Banks' healthy cov erage buffers could easily seem less adequate when NPLs spike, as UOB's case illustrated in 3 Q1 2 .
160%
SG Banks' P/BV
1.90
140%
+1 SD = 1.7x
1.70
120%
1.50 Mean = 1.5x
1.30
-1 SD = 1.2x
100% DBS
1.10
0.90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
Non-interest income is driv ing returns, am id slowing grow th and low m argins. Positiv e surprises will likely com e from trade fees, IB and treasury .
3.5 S$bn 3.0 2.5
Funding can be a future problem . DBU LDRs hav e crept up abov e 90%, S$ LDR is still liquid but banks are com peting for sticky deposits, w ith an ey e on Basel-3 liquidity requirem ents SG Loan-deposit ratios
DBU ACU S$
90
80
0.5 0.0 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12
60 Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Exchanges
Resolution of western world's bloated balance sheets can rem ov e m arket uncertainties. Without a full resolution, inv estors could stay in bonds and y ield play s, and m arket v olum es will shrink.
3,000
QE has not helped stock m arkets' v olum es globally . The threat to exchanges is a further deferm ent of actual solutions, capping turnov er v elocity and de-rating stocks further.
1 00%
ADVT (S$m)
2,500
80%
2,000
1,500
60%
1,000
40%
500
May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jan-12 Sep-12
CIMB Research
Outlook for 2013: The macro environment does not look supportive of earnings growth. Loan growth guidance remains in the mid- to high-single digits. Mortgage volumes are still holding up but business loans are slowing. Upside for loan growth stems from a more sustainable recovery in the US as clients have been deferring plans for expansion this year, faced with uncertain
13
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
end-demand. Margins should narrow in 1H13, but could bottom in 2H13 given that it is already at record lows and mortgage re-pricing effects are petering out. Net interest income growth is difficult. Banks are dependent on non-interest income to lift their revenue. Trade- and loan-related fee growth could pick up if the recent recovery in Chinas manufacturing data keeps up. Within ASEAN, growing infrastructure investments are positive for financing opportunities. In the area of IB fees, DBS is poised to do better, especially if the underperforming China equity market turns around; without this, DBS can still count on booming debt-market issuance in Singapore. Trading income will not be significantly stronger. Trading income was strong in 2012 on the back of bond markets making new highs; it might be tough to repeat such investment gains. There is no pressure on operating expenses but NPLs could spike if business bankruptcies rise, even if all three banks flag no asset-quality red flags for now. We do not think mortgage NPLs need be a worry.
Figure 19: DBSs NII (S$m)
In S$ 1336 Quarterly net interest income 1290 1300 1214 1199 1324 1332 1400
1,100
1,100 999
951
978
944
1140
1127
925
1200 1112
931
1106
1122
1079
1066
1067
710
689
900
700
686
704
720
1000
800
754
769
784
827
1100
800
700
800 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
600 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
600 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
1 2%
2.0%
1 .9%
1 .5%
1 1 %
1 .7%
1 .0%
1 0%
865
900
871
900
874
DB S OCB C UOB
Recommendation: Current valuations (less than -1SD of P/BV and P/E bands) are not lofty but considering that we expect a marginal decline in 2013 ROEs (11.1% average) and flat core EPS growth, CY13 average dividend yields (4.2%) would appear fair for a no-growth year. The three largest REITs trade at 5.5% CY13 yields, but banks provide 4.2% yields on 40% payouts with some cyclical growth option. We think they look more attractive than the large-cap REITs but a lack of earnings growth has deterred us from taking a more optimistic view. We are Neutral on the sector. Our stock preference is DBS as we believe its strong IB fees recently can be sustained into 2013 as Asian debt markets develop. Catalysts for positive surprises are the use of freed-up capital from RWA optimisation to buy growth.
14
971
1,000
981
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
3.2 Property
Figure 25: PROPERTY
Propert y Pot ent ial drivers t hat can spur out performance Negat ive real rat es and sustained inflation should keep interest in hard asset play s. With S-REITs' y ields com pressed, w e now prefer dev elopers for their m ore attractiv e v aluations, China and m ore asset-recy cling opportunities.
Index 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 J an-02 J an-03 J an-04 J an-05 J an-06 J an-07 J an-08 J an-09 J an-10 J an-11 J an-12 J u l- 0 2 J u l- 0 3 J u l- 0 4 J u l- 0 5 J u l- 0 6 J u l- 0 7 J u l- 0 8 J u l- 0 9 J u l- 1 0 J u l- 1 1 J u l- 1 2
OVERWEIGHT
Pot ent ial risks t hat can t rigger underperformance Declining GDP poses one of the biggest risks to dev elopers. 3 Q1 2 data shows a worse-than-expected GDP contraction of 5.9 %, seasonally -adjusted and annualised
Persons 80000
Property
% 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00
%y oy 25 20 15
60000
40000 10 20000 5 0 -5 -20000 -10 -40000 1Q05 1Q06 Mfg 1Q07 Construction 1Q08 Svcs 1Q09 GDP grow th (RHS) 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 -15
MASB10Y (RHS)
Valuat ions rem ain attractiv e with dev elopers trading at an av erage 2 8% discount to RNAV. Many hav e com m itted dev elopm ent capex which should start to bear fruit in 2 01 3 -1 5, lifting NTAs
Prem/(disc) 10% 0%
GL P OU E CA PL KP LD CD L CM A UO L SL Ho be TA I
A China slowdown w ill be v ery negativ e for dev elopers as China m akes up 2 0-50% of their GAVs. GAV breakdown, by geography (%)
Developer BukitSemb CapLand CMA CityDev GLP Hobee KepLand OUE SingLand UOL Wheelock Wing Tai UEM Singapore 100% 39% 38% 81% 0% 68% 51% 99% 98% 82% 94% 88% 100% China 0% 47% 51% 3% 42% 31% 33% 1% 2% 9% 6% 0% 0% Vietnam Australia Japan 0% 0% 0% 1% 5% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 0% 0% 0% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Europe 0% 2% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% US 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Others 0% 5% 7% 5% 7% 1% 7% 0% 0% 2% 0% 12% 0%
IN G
CIMB Research
Outlook for 2013. Negative real rates look set to support property values in 2013. In an environment of depressed funding costs and rising capital values, we believe developers, particularly those with established REITs and/or private-funds platforms, are in an advantageous position to crystallise value through asset recycling. We expect this to remain a source of growth for developers in 2013. China could yet again emerge as an important determinant of growth as risks of further (residential) policy curbs recede and signs of a turnaround in its real economy emerge. In Singapore residential, vacancy could rise further and we would continue to avoid this segment. The office sector is showing signs of a bottoming, though investors may only see a turnaround in rents in 2014. Given their YTD outperformance, we would switch out of office REITs to developers which are still trading at deep discounts to RNAV. Recommendation: Developers have done well YTD, albeit from a very low base. They are trading at an average 28% discount to RNAV or 1.05x P/BV, still below their historical five-year average. Many have committed development capex, which should start to bear fruit in 2013-15 and lift NTAs. We like developers with: 1) NTA growth visibility, backed by large development pipelines in commercial/mixed developments; 2) established platforms for asset recycling; and 3) exposure to a recovering China. Our preferred picks are CapitaLand (top pick), GLP (Outperform), UOL (top mid-cap pick) and KepLand (Outperform). CityDev remains an Underperform.
15
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
3.3 REITs
Figure 27: REITs
REITs Pot ent ial drivers t hat can spur out performance REITs Risk aversion can force inv estors back to th e safety of REITs
UNDERWEIGHT
Pot ent ial risks t hat can t rigger underperformance Capital-raising risks as sector asset lev erage heads higher and with REITs opportunistically raising capital in the absence of accom pany ing inv estm ents. Equity issuances in 2 01 2
900 800 700 Amt raised (S$'m) 600 500 400 300 200 100 Primary Secondary
LT Ave: 4.1%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
LT ave. spread
DPU growth should rem ain positiv e for m ost, anchored by organic rental rev ersions, acquisitions and asset enhancem ent com m itted in the past. Inorganic v s. Organic growth
20% Organic (%) Inorganic (%)
Interest rates (short-term ) are already near 0%. Risks are on the upside as rates cannot go any lower. Acquisitions (which look accretiv e against low funding costs) m ay turn out not that attractiv e when rates norm alise. Historical interest rate trends
Interest rates (%) 6.0 5.0 4.0 2-Yr 10-Yr
10%
5%
0% FCOT** Starhill Suntec** Plife AREIT Cache ART CDLHT FCT CCT KREIT M INT CM T M CT M LT
0.0 Jun-98 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12
-5%
CIMB Research
16
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Outlook for 2013: We expect more acquisitions in 2013 on the back of easier accretion, particularly for REITs with pipeline assets from sponsors. Companies that could go down the acquisition path include AREIT, Cache, MLT, K-REIT (MBFC Phase 3), Suntec REIT (MBFC Phase 3), CMT (Star Vista, ION Orchard), FCT (Changi City Point) and MCT (Mapletree Business City, Twenty Anson). Sector gearing (35%) is edging up and some REITs are pre-emptively raising funds - not the most endearing. With debt aversion a post-GFC characteristic, more could opt for a higher portion of equity funding in acquisitions. Risks for REITs include: 1) expensive and risky acquisitions e.g. overseas or speculative greenfield developments; and 2) dilution from equity fund-raising. Operational performances remain resilient. Office should bottom, supported by tenants from non-finance industries (legal, commodities). Supply pressure could be alleviated by the removal of older inventory. Retail remains well-supported by full employment. Competition from incoming supply is localised and mitigated by good pre-commitments ahead of physical completion. Industrial tenants could face cost pressures and demand weakness, though the effects on landlords should be attenuated by low occupancy costs, long leases and a shallower economic pull-back than past crises. In the Hotel segment, new rooms supply and added pressure from less corporate travel, cap REVPAU upside.
Figure 28: Pipeline acquisitions
REIT ART CDLHT AREIT Cache M IT M LT FCOT CCT K-Reit Suntec CM T FCT M CT Starhill Plife Sponsor/ Parent Ascott Ltd M &C Holdings Ascendas Grp CWT M apletree Investments M apletree Investments FCL/ F&N Capitaland Keppel Land Cheung Kong CM A CM A FCL/ F&N M apletree Investments YTL Khazanah Pipeline Assets Other assets from sponsor W Hotel Business parks in Sg and China Warehouses in Sg, M alaysia and China Overseas warehouses Alexandra Point & Valley Point M arket Street Car Park M BFC Phase 2 M BFC Phase 2 ION Orchard Star Vista Changi City Point M apletree Business City M apletree Anson Pantai Chain, Novena Hospital Expected timeline M id-term M id-term M id-term End 2012 - 13 End 2012 - 13 M id term; hard to inject near-term Option to purchase on completion End 2012 to early 2013 End 2012 to early 2013 Near- to mid-term Near- to mid-term End 2012 to early 2013 End 2012 to early 2013 Near- to mid-term Est. value (S$'m) ~S$400m ~S$350m ~S$1.1bn ~S$1.1bn ~S$1.4bn S$360m >S$300m ~S$1.2-1.3bn (M BC) ~S$700m (M apletree Anson) -
17
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Recommendation: The sector is now trading at 1.1x P/BV, with forward yields of 6%. Yield spreads are still 50bp above their historical five-year mean. While above-average yield spreads have been commonly cited for REITs to keep rising, this can only continue with sustained risk aversion. Risk indicators seem to be turning net positive, which could prompt investors to switch out of defensives. This is particularly so with REITs which are unlikely to see the strong growth of 2004-8, given increased caution on leverage and acquisitions after GFC. Interest rates are also near 0% also, meaning risks are on the upside over the longer term. We think it does not pay to stay too bearish and continue taking shelter in yields. We recently downgraded the sector to Underweight from Overweight given its poor risk-reward at current valuations with emerging risks from expensive acquisitions and capital-raising. We prefer AREIT for its good DPU growth next year (anchored by past committed developments/ AEI and rental reversions), long WALE and debt headroom for acquisitions. An added comfort is managements record for making astute purchases.
OVERWEIGHT
3.4 Commodities
Figure 30: Commodities
COMMODITIES Pot ent ial drivers t hat can spur out performance CPO prices hav e fallen 40% from their 2 01 2 peak due to record stockpiles in Malay sia. Malay sia's palm -oil inv entory could ease as dem and picks up while CPO supply could decline from the low production season
(mil tonnes) 2.6 2.4 2.2 1,100 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 600 1.2 1.0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 500 400 1,000 Stock (LHS) CPO price (RHS) (US$ /tonne) 1,400 1,300 1,200
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0
Pot ent ial risks t hat can t rigger underperformance Weak global growth is negativ e for CPO prices as it will dam pen dem and for edible oils (from de-stocking), drag down crude oil prices which indirectly lower the support lev el for CPO prices and lead to outflows of speculativ e funds from com m odities
(%) 7.0 6.0 Global GDP Edible oil demand growth
Upstream
We expect CPO dem and to recov er due to its attractiv e pricing against soy bean oil and crude oil. This would help narrow its price gap with soy bean oil
(US$/tonne) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Jan-10 (50) Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Slower biodiesel dem and growth. Most countries are already producing close to their targets. The EU plans to reduce the use of biofuels m ade from crops to 5% of total fuel usage in its transport sector in 2 02 0, from 1 0%. This could lim it biofuels' growth.l
Country France Germany Other EU countries USA Argentina Brazil 2008 1.9 2.7 3.0 2.7 0.7 1.0 2.3 14.3 2009 2.0 2.5 4.3 1.9 1.2 1.4 3.0 16.3 2010 2.0 2.8 4.8 1.1 1.8 2.1 3.7 18.3 2011 1.8 2.7 4.6 3.0 2.4 2.4 4.8 21.7 2012F 1.8 2.4 4.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 5.8 23.2 CAGR -0.8% -2.9% 12.4% 1.0% 42.2% 27.2% 25.7% 12.8%
CIMB Research
18
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Pot ent ial risks t hat can t rigger underperformance Refining m argins could suffer as new processing capacity is added. Indonesia's policies hav e spurred dow nstream inv estm ents for CPO and cocoa. Cocoa-grinding m argins hav e cracked. CPO refining m argins could be next as capacity com es onstream .
US$/Mt 300 250 200 150
10 9 209
Cocoa pr oc essin g m a r g in s
100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12
China's econom ic growth will spur the dem and for com m odities. Hard com m odities will benefit from im prov em ents in industrial production. China's IPI and GDP grow th
21
Actual GDP growth (%YoY) Projected GDP growth IPI growth
Trade finance costs are at all-tim e lows. Traders could get hurt by higher borrow ing costs when rates clim b.
7 % 6 5 4 3 2
Libor
17
13
9
1
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
CIMB Research
Outlook for 2013: The operating environment in 2013 will hinge on global macroeconomics. The USs fiscal cliff and sluggish European economies remain risks, though these are well-known and have arguably been priced in, going by traders all-time low valuations. What could surprise positively is Chinas recovery. Economic data has been pointing to a bottoming out in China. Sustained trends will be supportive of commodity demand. Wilmar should benefit from stronger demand for its consumer products, soybean products and refined oil in China, while Noble should benefit from stronger demand for hard commodities and agricultural products. Spot CPO currently trades close to its 3-year low due mainly to Malaysias burdensome CPO stock. We expect the CPO stock to decline in 1H13 from slower palm-oil output growth as estates enter their low production season. Demand for CPO should improve in 2013 following attractive CPO price discounts to soybean oil and lower supplies of other edible oils. However, rising soybean supplies in 2H13 and declining biodiesel demand growth may cap the upside for CPO prices. Overall, we project an average price of US$960/tonne for 2013 (-3% yoy), up from the current spot price of US$780. Lower selling prices and a recent proposed increase in Indonesia's minimum wage by up to 44% may hurt profit margins from estates though we expect the pinch to be partially offset by higher output growth and local CPO prices as upstream producers claw some of the refined tax benefits from refiners.
19
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
129 100 60
3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12
50
50
1Q CY11 2Q CY11 3Q CY11 4Q CY11 1Q CY12 2Q CY12 3Q CY12 -50 1Q CY11 2Q CY11 3Q CY11 4Q CY11 1Q CY12 2Q CY12 3Q CY12
Recommendations: Traders valuations have fallen to historical lows (< -1SD of P/BV, P/E bands) following repeated earnings disappointments. We cannot rule out further earnings misses, but valuations seem to have already reflected little expectations with the sector at 1x P/BV. Institutional ownership is low and share prices have been recently supported by share buybacks. Against very low expectations, any incremental improvement in sentiment or economic data could reignite interest in this space. Rather than dwell on Noble or Olam, we highlight CWT. The company has morphed from a warehouse operator into a logistics player. Our earlier concerns of a more opaque business (when it bought a base metal trading business) have died down as management delivers consistent earnings with its metal and energy businesses. In palm oil, we prefer Wilmar over CPO producers as Wilmar is expected to report stronger earnings growth in 2013 with the aid of higher crushing margins and processing volumes. The stock is also trading at 50% below its three-year P/BV average, which we believe more than accounts for poor earnings viability in its crushing business. At current valuations, its strengths such as strong distribution channels and an integrated business seem to have been forgotten by investors. We see re-rating catalysts from: 1) improving crush margins (better timing of purchases of feedstock and potential industry consolidation in China); 2) higher sales volume from expansion; 3) recovering demand for edible oils; and 4) potential M&As.
20
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
OVERWEIGHT
Pot ent ial risks t hat can t rigger underperformance Order moment um will slow in 2013 from a lack of m ega rig orders from Sete Brasil. Non-Brazilian orders continue to face stiff com petition from Korean y ards.
A n n u a l or der win for KEP a n d SMM 10 8 Keppel Corp Sembcorp Marine 6.5 6 10.0 8.8 7.3 7.4 5.2 3.1 5.4 5.5 2.2 2.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 3.1 2 4.2 1.7 1.3 2.6 9.6 5.5 5.5
21
17
13 Ave (02-12): 9 -1SD: 7.4x 5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012 YTD
Earnings upside. With m argin declines priced in, share-price upside could com e from stronger-than-expected m argins from m assiv e jack-up deliv eries in 2 01 3 , especially for Keppel Corp
20 Ri g del iv er i es (u n it s) Rigs delivered per year by Keppel Corp 16 13 12 9 8 7 6 3 6 19
Margins and earnings will likely be lower in 2013 w ith the execution of lower-v alue, low er-m argin projects (secured after GFC), and Brazilian orders. New designs could also inv olv e a learning curv e and related costs, com pressing m argins.
31% 27% 23% 19% 15% 11% 7% KEP 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 SMM FY13F KEP a n d SMM m a r gin s (% )
MRO
Sust ainable order moment um. We expect 1 5% y oy growth in ST Engineering's orders to S$2 .2 bn in FY1 3 (9M1 2 : S$1 .6 bn). STE is the second-largest independent MRO prov ider in the US and has gained m arket share with firm er rates thanks to an exodus of com petitors.
1,787 A er ospa ce's qu a r t er l y or der win FY11:S$1.68bn 9M12:S$1.6bn FY13F: S$2.2bn
Expensiv e. STE was the top stock perform er in Capital Goods. Trading at 1 7 .8x CY1 3 P/E, it is expensiv e for staid earnings growth. The stock tends to underperform in a bull m arket when high-beta /growth stocks w ould be preferred.
22 ST En gin eer in g P/E ba n ds (x)
1,600
1,004
1,148
20 +1SD: 19.5x
1,200
18 5-yr Ave (0812): 17.7x 16 -1SD: 15.9x 12M - Forw ard FD Core P/E (x) 14 39448 39814 40179 40544 40909
30
62
124
400
CIMB Research
21
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Outlook for 2013: We see the potential for more non-Petrobras orders in 2013, to S$4.5bn-5.5bn each for Sembcorp Marine and Keppel Corp (from an average of S$2.5bn in FY12). FY12 was the year when most Singapore yards were busy securing mega-sized rig orders from Sete-Brasil. Going forward, we expect SMM and KEP to turn more aggressive in bidding against the Koreans. Among the big three Korean yards, Daewoo Shipbuildings and Samsung Heavy Industries yards are full, with very little capacity for 2H14 deliveries. This leaves room for the Singapore yards to chase after fast-track jobs for 2H14 deliveries, potentially with better margins. We are not worried about the threat from newcomers in China with the only exception of Dalian Shipbuilding which has a proven jack-up rig track record. CIMC Raffles China and Cosco are struggling with design technicality, project management, yard efficiency and on-time delivery. Established rig operators and national oil companies are still more inclined to order from the Singapore and Korean yards. We believe bearish margin guidance has also been priced in, after the 3Q12 selldown. Any improvements in margins in FY13 could trigger outperformance, we believe. MRO operators could provide a safe haven with earnings growth, margin expansion and sustainable orders in FY13. Hangars are busy for both ST Engineering and SIA Engineering. STEs increased market share in the US could lead to more MRO contracts while SIAE could perform more intensive checks for new fleets of aircraft acquired by SIA four years ago.
Figure 36: Jack-up orders still dominated by Singapore yards
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dalian Shipbuilding China KEP Singapore SMM Singapore Others
Figure 38: More B777-312s due for second D checks, more B377-212s and A380s due for first D checks
unit 12 Second "D" checks for B777-212s B747s B777-312s A340-541 B777-212s A330s A380-841 8 10 12
10
22
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Recommendation: Current valuations (12x CY13 P/E) are high against the rigbuilders history. We think that new orders could still spark the sectors re-rating, to about 15x. Maintain Overweight. Between the two rigbuilders, we prefer Keppel Corp for: 1) its better strategy in this rig cycle, by taking on calculated risks in bidding aggressively for jack-up rigs in 2010-11 and hence dominating about 45% of the market; 2) its scalable overseas yards; 3) lower slippage risks for Brazilian orders thanks to its 12 years of operation in the country, building familiar products (semi-subs); and 4) better valuations, below its 10-year average of 12x and SMMs 16x CY13 P/E. Among the MRO players, we prefer ST Engineering for its liquidity, global operations (to cushion S% appreciation) and upside from M&As. Catalysts are stronger-than-expected margin expansion for its Aerospace business and reduced competition among global MRO providers.
Figure 39: Keppel Corp is trading below its 10-year average
23 12M - Forw ard FD Core P/E (x)
23
20
20
+1SD: 19.6x
17
17
+1SD: 16.5x
14
14
11
11
-1SD: 10.7x
8
-1SD: 7.4x
5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5 2002
12M - Forw ard FD Core P/E (x) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
3.6 Telecommunications
NEUTRAL
Outlook for 2013: Singapore's telcos are trying to monetise the surging usage of mobile data by reducing the volume of data bundled. They have reduced data allowance from 12GB to 2GB for new contracts. As 10-20% of the users consume more than 2GB of data per month, telcos will be able to earn higher revenue by revising their data plans. The adoption of LTE devices should also spur greater usage of data. Data usage per smartphone user has almost doubled over the last two years, we think because of: 1) more content available; 2) the switch from Blackberry devices to Android and iPhones; and 3) the generous data bundles offered. We also believe that the adoption of 4G handsets will be faster than the take-up of 3G because of: 1) the availability of content currently vs. a lack of content during the early days of 3G; and 2) greater availability of 4G devices vs. the initial launch of 3G. Dividends will be the focus for StarHub and to a lesser extent, M1. With its net debt/EBITDA falling to multi-year lows of 0.4x, we expect StarHub to raise its DPS by 20% to 24 cts in FY13. To top it off, StarHub sat on S$576m of cash in 3Q12 after selling S$220m of bonds. M1 could also possibly undertake a small capital-management exercise (end-2013) as its net debt/EBITDA had gone down to 0.88x in 3Q12, below its target of 1-1.5x. However, such a prospect would depend on how much it pays for refarmed spectrum. Singapores telco regulator, IDA, plans to re-farm and auction 1800MHz, 2.3GHz and 2.5GHz spectrum bands. The auction is likely to be held in 1H13, way ahead of the expiry of existing spectrum allocations in 2015 and 2017, to allow telcos to plan ahead. We do not anticipate aggressive bidding as there is ample spectrum, unless: 1) all three telcos bid for more than 2x20MHz; or 2) new contenders emerge; both unlikely. There were no new takers for the residual 3G spectrum in 2010. 3G auctions in 2001 and 2010 were awarded at reserve prices as there was sufficient spectrum for the three incumbents.
23
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Pot ent ial risks t hat can t rigger underperformance Turnaround in Bharti, lower com petition in Australia, im prov ing profitability in Singapore SingTel Pretax profits, by subsidiary (S$m )
1,200
8%
qoq grow th
6% 900
3%
0%
PBTL
Higher div idends or special div idends by StarHub giv en its low and rapidly falling net debt/EBITDA (cts)
40 32 24
(x ) 1.5
CIMB Research
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
SingTel
StarHub
M1
Average
24
3Q12
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Starhub Monthly fee * Voice credit (mins) * SMS/MMS credit - new SMS/MMS credit - old Data credit - new Data credit - old
SingTel Monthly fee * Voice credit (mins) * SMS/MMS credit - new SMS/MMS credit - old Data credit - new Data credit - old
Recommendation: The sector is a Neutral as it lacks re-rating catalysts and valuations are not compelling. Despite appreciating over 20% in 2012, StarHub remains our top pick because: 1) it offers the highest dividends among Singapore telcos; and 2) we expect its quarterly DPS to be raised by 5 cts to 6 cts given its low and rapidly falling net debt/EBITDA; and 3) its FCFE/share is a healthy 25-30 cts/year. Mirroring StarHub, M1's growth is unexciting but we do not anticipate special dividends until after the spectrum auction. SingTel is an Underperform given a myriad of risks, including: 1) regulatory risks in India with a government hell-bent on extracting maximum cash from the telecom players through spectrum sales and licence fees; 2) intense competition in Australia as we expect VHA to return to the market and pursue market share; and 3) margin pressures in Singapore as it continues to acquire market share and content.
25
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
3.7 Transport
Figure 44: Transport
TRANSPORT Pot ent ial drivers t hat can spur out performance Valuations rem ain undem anding at around 0.9x P/BV. A significantly im prov ed m acro env ironm ent could spur fasterthan-expected trav el dem and and y ield growth
15 Passenger traffic growth looks stable and is now outpacing capacity growth (% yoy)
NEUTRAL
Pot ent ial risks t hat can t rigger underperformance Further econom ic deterioration, particularly in Europe, could hurt profitability . A spike in jet kerosene costs in the ev ent of Middle Eastern tensions is also likely to hurt the sector
25 20 15
Av iation
(% yoy)
10
5 0
10
5
0 -5
-5
-10
-10
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10 RPK
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08 ACTK
Jan-09
Jan-10 RTCK
Jan-11
Jan-12
ASK
A global recov ery can help prop up dem and and arrest falling freight rates. Rates hav e fallen 4 0-50% from 1 H1 2 . Shipping
200%
More likely scenario is that freight rates will stay pressured as container fleet growth of 7 .3 % surpasses 5% dem and growth Container ships supply v s. dem and
Fleet Capacity ('000 teu) growth Title: Fleet grow th (%, RHS) Source:
2,500
20,000
15%
150%
2,000
16,000
100%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report Supply grow th (% yoy) 12%
12,000
9%
6%
-50%
4,000
0 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
3%
-100% Jan-10
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
Land Transport
Margins could recov er if the new fare adjustm ent form ula (due 2 01 3 ) allows cost inflation to be passed on v ia fare hikes or gov ernm ent subsidies. Higher inflation and wage prov ide rationale for fare hikes,
Weakening free cash flows threaten div idends. Div idend y ields are not attractiv e at 3 %, while EPS growth is lacklustre (< 1 0%). REITs offer higher y ields while stay ing defensiv e.
S$m 400
Actual fare increase 2.4 1.7 1.1 0.7 -4.6 -2.5 1.0
Max fare adjustment 2.4 2.0 2.1 3.0 6.3 -1.0 2.8
CPI Wage Productivity (%) increase (%) extraction 1.7 3.6 0.3 0.5 3.5 0.3 1 3.2 0.3 2.1 6.9 1.5 6.6 6 1.5 0.6 -2.6 1.5 2.8 5.8 1.5
300
200
100
CIMB Research
Outlook for 2013: SIA continues to project a difficult operating environment for 2013. Passenger-yield and load-factor softness is likely to linger as a result of continuing economic problems in Europe. The group is likely to mitigate the weakness by offering promotional fares, but these will leave yields compressed. Additionally, as a large portion of its revenue is derived from outside Singapore,
26
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
SIA is likely to remain affected by any further strength of the S$ against the US$. SIA also believes that the cargo market will remain downbeat; it recently decided to park one of its 13 freighters in an attempt to reduce costs. Although jet kerosene costs have stabilised, we think that with the confluence of negative factors above, SIA could find it difficult to stave off these issues completely. In shipping, NOL saw Asia-Europe rates and intra-Asia rates turning soft; only rates for the Americas held up. It is valiantly trying to cut costs but even as unit costs fall, the rate environment will remain challenging in 2013 as global fleet growth is set to exceed global demand growth, yet again. In land transport, we believe cost pressures will remain a headache. ComfortDelGro has additional recruitment and training costs ahead of the Downtown Lines 2013 opening while both land transport operators have to grapple with costs to raise service levels. Recommendation: We do not see an environment for stock picks in this sector. The sector is cheap but could stay cheap. Crude oil prices should weaken slightly as a global recession develops, but not fall off a cliff; lower energy costs will not provide much of a reprieve amid weak demand. SIA trades at around 0.9x CY14 P/BV; NOL trades at 1x P/BV. The cyclicals (SIA, NOL) are not expensive on a P/BV basis, but have poor prospects of a recovery when business travel is tightening and Singapores manufacturing data keeps deteriorating. While SIAs strong balance sheet has been mooted as a potential area of resilience, the company is likely to accelerate its capital expenditure in each of the next five years. As such, dividend payments may remain muted even if earnings recover moderately. The more defensive land-transport operators have to grapple with increased operating costs and are not likely to get substantial fare hikes approved.
UNDERWEIGHT
Outlook for 2013: Analysts are still grappling with how much earnings downside there will be if the integrated resorts (IRs) are indeed at the start of a downcycle. The first two years of operations was driven by pent-up demand and a novelty factor, but also coincided with a macro cycle upswing post-2008. Expectations became hyped-up as the IRs kept beating expectations. Now, the IRs are making the difficult transition to an ex-growth state, where the full implication of a strict regulatory regime is biting i.e. limited licensing and provision of credit by junkets capping VIP growth and the clampdown on local mass market. At the same time, a clampdown on corruption in China means the international VIP market face added headwinds. Both IRs were implicit in their post-mortem of their 3Q results that the only avenue for growth is the international mass market. Although the market is still under-penetrated (limited to Indonesian and Malaysian arrivals at this stage), we think it will take many years to bear fruit in our view. Growing the international mass-market is made more difficult with limited availability of hotel rooms where occupancy at MBS and RWS are trending at 99% and 94% respectively. Genting Singapore had to buy land in suburban Jurong just to expand their hotel capacity. Recommendation: We see a difficult operating environment for Genting Singapore over the next two years. Earnings are likely to have gone ex-growth and this means the shares are likely to underperform particularly if we take into account current valuations, where CY13 EV/EBITDA of 11.4x is in-line with the Macau average; unjustified when Macau does not have the strict regulatory landscape of Singapore. At 1.5x P/BV, valuations are also not justified against forward ROEs of 8-9%, levels close to its cost of capital. We see downside on valuations especially if this is the start of its cycle of earnings downgrades. Our stock preference in the gaming sector right now is Genting Hong Kong which is all about the nascent growth of the Philippines gaming industry. Comparatively, Genting Hong Kongs CY13 EV/EBITDA is only 6.6x and it trades below book value.
27
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Pot ent ial risks t hat can t rigger underperformance GENS - Operating lev erage at the start of an earnings downcy cle is painful
700 600
800
500 400 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 300 200 100 0
0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
-800
-2400
Healthcare
IHH - Pipeline deliv ery of beds in all key m arkets will prov ide the m eans to lift rev enue and earnings
No. of beds 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
New beds added Operational beds
IHH - With little or no m edical suite sale proceeds in FY1 3 -1 4 , rev enue grow th will not reflect the buildout of the business
400 S$m
Other operating profit Total depreciation Sales of medical suites Net revenue
+21% 861
+8% 500
+17% 1,087
+10% 770
5,132
5,993
6,493
7,580
Super - Branded Consum er sales hav e been grow ing steadily , m argins hav e im prov ed as coffee prices fall.
95 Branded Consumer sales (LHS) 90 85 80 75 70 65 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 GP margin (RHS) 42% 46%
Super - A spike in com m odity prices as seen in early FY1 1 would erode profitability
0.45
0.4
38% 34% 30% 26% 22%
0.35
0.3
Gross margins
CIMB Research
Aside from gaming stocks, we think other non-Index sectors bets would include ASEAN consumer plays and Asian infrastructure plays, at reasonable valuations. Super Group had been one of our highlighted Consumer stock in 2012 but it has been a very impressive outperformer, which makes it harder to be convicted at these levels. Whoever emerge as the new owner of F&N, would look interesting. We highlight Dairy Farm as a combination to developed Asia consumption trends and developing ASEAN growth. Lastly, Tat Hong is a great play on infrastructure spending across Thailand, Singapore, Australia and China.
28
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
4. VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 4.1 Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight; cheap but lacking growth
Our end-CY13 FSSTI target is 3,316, bottom-up and implying 13.2x CY14 P/E and 1.5x CY13 P/BV (-1SD valuations are at 13x P/E and 1.5x P/BV). The Singapore markets saving grace is that it is not expensive but this probably reflects a general lack of earnings growth and the headwinds from restructuring. A review of key sectors throws up a common problem: a lack of stocks with clear earnings growth drivers. Stocks that have some earnings growth visibility or NAV growth certainty are pricier as well. That said, though overall market valuations might not change drastically from their current -1 SD levels, we think there are opportunities for pursuing specific stocks that can: 1) offer steady earnings growth and are yet not overpriced; and 2) produce positive earnings surprises but have been priced to disappoint. We cut our Overweight on Singapore to Neutral, as we expect the country to lag after its outperformance in 2012, and as investors shift to growth i.e. developing ASEAN or Greater China. The large stocks of Singapore lack stronger earnings drivers. Singapores lack of growth stocks is, however, compensated by its attractive valuations and yields. So some stocks that deliver on earnings could selectively do well.
Figure 46: FSSTI valuations
STI Core P/E (x) FD Core P/E (x) Core EPS growth (%) Core Net Profit Growth (%) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCF (x, equity) P/FCF (x, firm) Net gearing (%) ROE (%, recurring) FSSTI level CIMB/consensus (x) CY2010 16.7x 16.7x 10% 23% 1.8x 3.2% 13.1x 11.2x (290.6x) 14.0% 11.9% 3,190 CY2011 13.3x 13.4x 4% 2% 1.4x 4.1% 10.7x 20.4x 26.3x 17.1% 10.6% 2,646 CY2012 14.4x 14.5x 5% 13% 1.4x 3.5% 12.5x 37.0x 35.4x 17.2% 10.7% 3,012 1.07 CY2013 13.3x 13.4x 8% 9% 1.4x 3.5% 11.5x 29.4x 17.2x 16.1% 10.6% 3,012 1.00 CY2014 12.0x 12.1x 11% 11% 1.3x 3.8% 10.3x 15.2x 11.8x 13.7% 11.0% 3,012 1.00
+2SD : 19.7
19.0
25.0x
17.0
20.0x
13.0 11.0
15.0x
10.0x
9.0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
EPS Growth
-20% -40%
5.0x 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
29
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
16.0%
Core ROE
1.2x 1.0x
4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 n n-0 n-0 n-0 n-0 n-0 n-0 n-1 n-1 n-1 n-1 n-1 n Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja -Ja 31 3 1 3 1 31 3 1 3 1 31 3 1 31 31 3 1 31 31
SOURCE: CIMB Research
1.0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
-0 2
-0 3
P/BV
Figure 52: Consumer stocks P/BV (x): have also done very well
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Super Group Thai Beverage Fraser & Neave Dairy Farm Int'l (RHS) 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 Jan-08A Jan-09A Jan-10A Jan-11A Jan-12F
1.20
1.00
0.80
2.0
0.60 1.10 0.90 0.40 0.70 0.50 Jan-08A Jan-09A Jan-10A Jan-11A Jan-12F
0.20 Jan-07A
10
1.9
8
1.5 3.4
6
1.1 2.6
4
0.7 1.8
0 Jan-07A
0.3 Jan-07A
30
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Figure 55: Capital Goods P/BV (x): doing well, until their recent de-rating on margin concerns; they look cheap again
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Jan-07A Keppel Corporation Sembcorp Industries STX OSV Sembcorp Marine (RHS) 6.6 5.8
2.1
5.0 4.2 3.4 2.6
17
1.7
14
1.3
11
0.9
1.8 1.0 Jan-08A Jan-09A Jan-10A Jan-11A Jan-12F
0.5 Jan-07A
Figure 57: Property companies P/BV (x): mostly still at discounts to forward NAVs
3.8 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 Jan-07A CapitaLand City Developments CapitaMalls Asia Global Logistic Properties Keppel Land
1.30 '+1SD 1.20 1.10 1.00 m ean 0.90 0.80 '-1SD 0.70 0.60
Jan-08A
Jan-09A
Jan-10A
Jan-11A
Jan-12F
0.50 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
PE ratio 2012
In contrast, commodity and transport companies have sunk to P/BV lows. Banks are about 25% below their 2010 P/BV highs while developers performances are mixed. CapitaLand is closer to its 2009 low than its 2010 high; CityDev is the opposite. Capital Goods stocks were above their post-GFC mean before their recent selldown; they are now cheaper. Overall for the market, the ratio of defensive stocks P/Es to cyclical stocks P/Es is near the higher end of the ratios usual trading range; at such levels, analysts would have to cut their earnings for cyclicals further (as effects of a recession become clearer) or cyclicals would have to be re-rated. By all accounts, defensives and yields are looking more and more yesterdays game. We think they might find it difficult to outperform from here.
31
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Financials
Neutral
33.3%
DBS
UOB
Property
Overweight
15.7%
CapitaLand UOL
City Dev
REITs
Underweight
Strong outperformance is a reason to be wary. Larger REITs are trading at premiums above book CMT, CCT while it might be tougher for NAV accretion as tenants struggle with Singapore's cost pressures; KREIT, ART low interest rates have already depressed cap rates. We like REITs with meaningful organic DPU growth drivers. There is a clear difference in value. SingTel has 3% earnings growth and 5.1% yields, it has been gaining market share in Singapore but is dragged down by its overseas subsidiaries, particularly Bharti. Taken together, these are not attractive characteristics. StarHub still offers 6.7% yields and special dividend potential. Sector is already cheap, capping downside, but has no reason to recover either. Aviation (SIA) faces a tough, competitive environment but is already at 0.9x P/BV. Shipping (NOL) rates are falling as fast as costs can be cut. Land transport faces all sorts of cost pressure (staff, maintenance, depreciation) from the need to raise service levels. Offshore & Marine already had a recent de-rating. The sector faces slowing orders, lower margins and earnings but order books are full. A strong S$ raises the potential for M&A growth. The sector has been deeply sold down. It is the most under-owned sector on earnings disappointments and unpredictability. Upstream CPO planters have been weighed down by falling CPO prices, Ivy Ng is less bullish on CPO prices in 2013. Wilmar has turned around and is guiding positively; it is one of our picks. Traders are cheap but have little earnings predictability. CWT is an under-the-radar performer, with its base metal business showing consistency. Tat Hong is a beneficiary of infrastructure buildout in Singapore, Thailand and China, commodity infrastructure developments in Australia and Malaysia. Dairy Farm is a steady outperformer through tough times; the accumulation of its capital base brings on the possibility of special dividends. Gaming faces a pullback in VIP rolls and tight government regulations.
CIMB Research
Telcos
Neutral
11.7%
Star hub
SingTel
Transport
Neutral
6.3%
NOL, SIA
Capital Goods
Overweight
13.7%
Cosco
Commodities Overweight
9.5%
Wilmar CWT
Underweight
9.8%
Genting SG
Our themes and stock picks are: 1. Asset inflation, improving China: CapitaLand is a relatively cheap proxy for a bottoming China, having a large asset-development pipeline in China and manageable gearing, even on a look-through level. DBS can be differentiated from its Singapore and Malaysian peers by its deepest links to China, though its assets in Hong Kong, Taiwan and China. It has both the capability and geographical presence to benefit from regional trade across Asia and developing debt-capital markets.
2. Growth at reasonable price: DBS, Dairy Farm, Ezion and Tat Hong fall into this category. Dairy Farm offers steady growth and can benefit from consumer spending in Hong Kong and Singapore as well as store growth in Indonesia. P/BV is near historical lows as an excess capital base builds up. Ezion is still at 8x P/E after its massive outperformance, its earnings are underpinned by a deluge of orders won in the past 12 months while its recent pairing with industry veterans could produce new growth drivers. Tat Hong is benefiting from infrastructure build-out across Australia and Asia, with power plants, oil & gas projects, flood defence infrastructure and metro projects coming through. 3. Unloved cyclicals: Wilmar has had a good quarter and is guiding profitability for its oilseed and grains division as it has been timing its feedstock purchases well. After two bad quarters, there are few owners of the stock. Share buyback is also proving to be a support. The traders are cheap but there is low visibility in their earnings, CWT is an under-the-radar offshoot, whose base metal trading division has been
32
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
doing well ever since the company brought it under its wings. Keppel Corp has been de-rated together with peer, SembMarine, but has less execution risk in Brazil and could even spring positive margin surprises, on any early deliveries. 4. Yields with right catalysts: Among the REITs, we have gone cold on the large caps as valuations turn rich. SingTel is not loved as its overseas businesses face all sorts of pressure. We like yield stocks with the right catalysts. REITs need organic DPU growth to perform from these levels. Pre-commitments/occupancy for AREITs industrial developments tend to ramp up when the properties are near their completion, providing catalysts. StarHub has the potential for special dividend surprises. ST Engineerings two major divisions are doing well while dividend yields are comparable to large-cap REITs. Its catalyst would be a spike in U$ on any risk aversion.
33
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
10%
5%
Plife
Cache
CDLHT
ART
AREIT
-5%
Potential NTA/Sh 4.90 RC Chongqing Four retail/mixed devts at CMA/CapLand level Four retail malls at CMA/CapLand level ITC, Tianjin Cairnhill serv appt CapitaGreen Office OODL projects Tw o RC projects Four retail malls at CMA level Nine China resi projects in phases Nine malls at CMA level Three China resi projects in phases 3.54 2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
S$m 25
Commodities trading
20
15
FY10
FY14F
34
KREIT
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
M INT
CM T
M CT
CCT
FCT
M LT
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
80 10.0% 40 FY10 FY11 FY12F Core earnings FY13F ROE (RHS) FY14F 5.0% 0.0%
(cts) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 6 0 Q 1 6 0 Q 2 6 0 Q 3 6 0 Q 4 7 0 Q 1 7 0 Q 2 7 0 Q 3 7 0 Q 4 8 0 Q 1 8 0 Q 2 8 0 Q 3 8 0 Q 4 9 0 Q 1 9 0 Q 2 9 0 Q 3 9 0 Q 4 0 1 Q 1 0 1 Q 2 0 1 Q 3 0 1 Q 4 1 1 Q 1 1 1 Q 2 1 1 Q 3 1 1 Q 4 2 1 Q 1 2 1 Q 2 2 1 Q 3
35
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
140000
75%
110000
70%
80000
65%
50000 3QFY13F 4QFY13F 1QFY14F 3QFY14F 4QFY14F 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 2QFY14
60%
24 22
0.24 0.21 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.09 Current core P/E Recurring EPS 0.06
20 18 16 14 12
Dec-00
Dec-02
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-12
Dec-14
UOL trades at a 38% discount to RNAV, or 0.76x P/BV. This assumes a 25% discount to UICs RNAV. We estimate a c.S$9.50 SOP value assuming RNAV for UIC UOL has a resilient property portfolio across the commercial, retail and hospitality segments. The group has been building up its investment property/recurring income base with the new 363-room Parkroyal on Pickering Street and PanPac Serviced Suites on Beach Road set to open in 4Q12-1Q13 UOL has become more active in putting capital to work. It has expressed interest for the Thomson Road White Site located just beside its Novena Square. Wilmar, our top pick in the commodity sector trades at P/BV of 1.1x against its historical 3-year average of 2x . We believe the stock could trade up to our SOP value of S$3.90, which translates to a P/BV of 1.5x. We expect the group's earnings to recover in 2013 driven by improved crush margins and higher sales volumes for its palm and consumer products. . Catalysts include higher-than-expected oilseeds crush margin in China, stronger refining margins and potential M&As.
Potential NTA/Sh 8.30 Lion City Site (Resi/Retail) The Esplanade, Tianjin (Mixed-D) Plaza Beach Rd ext (Serv Appt) 7.30 One Up Pickering (Hotel/Office) 2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
36
EPS
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Company Briefs
37
Amtek Engineering
AMTK SP / AMEL.SI Current S$0.50 S$0.56 S$0.56 13.1%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$220.5m
S$269.4m
US$0.34m
S$0.42m
25.0%
543.2 m shares
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) Price To Sales (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Jun-11A 681.6 46.29 0.087 79.5% 4.65 0.32 0.0% 2.99 NA 13.0% 1.41 36.1% Jun-12A 675.1 33.60 0.061 (30.5%) 6.68 0.33 0.063 15.4% 3.50 7.55 10.7% 1.45 21.4% Jun-13F 654.9 24.19 0.046 (24.3%) 8.82 0.34 0.018 4.4% 3.76 12.91 0.6% 1.35 15.8% 0% 0.71 Jun-14F 710.0 35.57 0.066 42.8% 6.18 0.31 0.022 5.5% 3.00 16.82 (4.0%) 1.21 20.7% 0% 0.80 Jun-15F 765.0 40.19 0.075 13.9% 5.42 0.29 0.033 8.1% 2.31 3.51 (18.1%) 1.09 21.2% 0% 0.90
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
0.56
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Amtek Engineering
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Jun-12A 110.3 168.9 56.9 5.7 341.9 115.5 14.7 0.0 2.2 132.4 69.4 168.8 7.6 245.8 58.5 0.5 59.0 5.8 310.6 151.4 12.3 163.7 Jun-13F 108.4 157.8 54.1 5.7 326.0 116.4 16.6 0.0 2.4 135.4 64.4 158.2 10.2 232.7 45.0 0.5 45.5 5.8 284.0 163.5 13.9 177.4 Jun-14F 92.4 193.7 65.5 5.7 357.3 110.6 18.9 0.0 2.3 131.8 64.5 191.3 9.7 265.5 20.0 0.5 20.5 5.6 291.6 181.3 16.2 197.5 Jun-15F 125.9 185.2 63.3 5.7 380.1 103.3 21.5 0.0 2.3 127.2 66.1 185.6 9.2 260.8 20.0 0.5 20.5 5.7 287.0 201.4 18.9 220.3
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Jun-12A 69.07 (1.60) 1.57 Jun-13F 59.69 (1.98) 3.24 Jun-14F 71.94 (2.28) (14.16) Jun-15F 79.55 (2.62) 4.94
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Jun-12A (0.96%) (18.3%) 10.2% (0.032) 0.28 7.03 18.4% 84.9% 80.80 38.59 83.64 20.4% 15.3% Jun-13F (2.98%) (13.6%) 9.1% (0.002) 0.30 6.19 20.7% 31.5% 78.48 38.68 83.81 16.9% 12.1% Jun-14F 8.40% 20.5% 10.1% 0.015 0.33 9.62 20.0% 27.8% 78.48 38.66 84.31 22.5% 16.3% Jun-15F 7.76% 10.6% 10.4% 0.073 0.37 12.36 20.0% 35.8% 78.48 38.64 84.31 24.2% 17.8%
3.64 (5.56) (10.46) 56.65 (14.12) 0.61 0.00 0.74 (12.78) (14.73) 0.00 0.00 (33.96) 16.04 (32.64)
7.65 (5.51) (6.72) 56.37 (25.00) 4.59 0.00 (0.36) (20.76) (18.56) 0.00 0.00 (9.65) 16.90 (11.31)
11.08 (3.81) (9.48) 53.29 (20.00) 4.37 0.00 0.30 (15.33) (24.88) 0.00 0.00 (12.09) 2.18 (34.79)
9.66 (3.12) (10.71) 77.69 (20.00) 3.19 0.00 0.23 (16.58) 1.59 0.00 0.00 (17.79) 8.28 (7.92)
Key Drivers
ASP Change (%, Main Product) Unit sales growth (%, main prod) No. Of Lines (main Product) Rev per line (US$, main prod) ASP chg (%, 2ndary prod) Unit sales grth (%, 2ndary prod) No. Of Lines (secondary Product) Rev per line (US$, 2ndary prod) Jun-12A 5.0% 6.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-13F -2.0% 4.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-14F -2.0% 10.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-15F -2.0% 10.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
39
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,022m
S$1,249m
US$0.48m
S$0.59m
53.0%
768.3 m shares
AUM growth
Management remains confident of AUM growth despite recent plans to suspend its Rmb REIT listing. Such growth could be led by acquisitions by REITs under its management. Management may also start funds in new markets like China and Japan.
We keep our EPS and SOP target price. Maintain Outperform. We see catalysts from a successful Rmb REIT listing and acquisition-fee boosts from REITs under management.
Maintain Outperform
We continue to like ARA for its recurring management fees and asset-light business. A game-changer remains the successful listing of its Rmb REIT which could serve as a ready exit option for ADF I and future ADFs and elevate ARAs status from a fund manager to a sponsor. We also see catalysts from acquisition-fee boosts from REITs under management. Management also sees ample liquidity and opportunities to raise funds in markets like China and Japan.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.63 1.64
Current
|
Target
1.81
Dec-10A 112.5 73.94 63.81 0.09 32.4% 17.79 0.048 2.95% 15.03 41.00 (13.2%) 6.57 42.4%
Dec-11A 122.8 73.97 68.20 0.09 (2.8%) 17.47 0.050 3.08% 15.35 23.49 (30.0%) 6.61 37.7%
Dec-12F 123.3 80.39 73.79 0.10 8.2% 16.92 0.050 3.08% 14.36 17.12 (40.7%) 5.57 35.7% 0% 0.98
Dec-13F 126.8 82.70 75.32 0.10 2.1% 16.58 0.050 3.08% 13.95 16.20 (40.9%) 5.53 33.5% 0% 0.97
Dec-14F 131.7 85.86 78.10 0.10 3.7% 15.99 0.050 3.08% 13.41 15.47 (41.4%) 5.46 34.4% (0%) 0.94
Vol m
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
Dec-11A 122.8 122.8 74.0 0.0 74.0 (0.4) 2.8 0.0 76.3 0.0 76.3 (6.8) 69.5 (1.3) 0.0 Dec-12F 123.3 123.3 80.4 0.0 80.4 (0.0) 4.1 0.0 84.4 0.0 84.4 (9.1) 75.3 (1.5) 0.0 Dec-13F 126.8 126.8 82.7 0.0 82.7 (0.0) 3.5 0.0 86.2 0.0 86.2 (9.3) 76.9 (1.6) 0.0 Dec-14F 131.7 131.7 85.9 0.0 85.9 (0.0) 3.5 0.0 89.4 0.0 89.4 (9.7) 79.7 (1.6) 0.0
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Dec-11A 57.3 30.6 0.0 24.8 112.7 1.4 3.1 0.0 97.4 101.9 0.1 17.3 7.1 24.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 25.0 188.9 0.7 189.6
Dec-12F 91.9 30.7 0.0 24.8 147.4 1.4 3.1 0.0 97.4 101.9 0.1 17.4 7.1 24.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 25.1 224.3 0.7 224.9
Dec-13F 93.0 31.6 0.0 24.8 149.4 1.4 3.1 0.0 97.4 101.9 0.1 17.9 7.1 25.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 25.6 225.8 0.7 226.5
Dec-14F 95.3 32.8 0.0 24.8 152.9 1.4 3.1 0.0 97.4 101.9 0.1 18.6 7.1 25.9 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 26.3 228.6 0.7 229.2
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Dec-11A 73.97 (5.13) Dec-12F 80.39 (0.06) Dec-13F 82.70 (0.38) Dec-14F 85.86 (0.52)
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
(10.67) (0.43) (8.82) 48.92 (0.44) 0.00 (0.00) 21.23 20.79 (18.97) 0.00 0.00 (36.66) 0.00 (55.63)
(7.49) (0.01) (9.12) 63.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.35 9.35 (0.12) 0.00 0.00 (38.42) (14.19) (52.72)
(4.57) (0.01) (9.31) 68.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.75 8.75 (0.12) 0.00 0.00 (38.42) (37.48) (76.02)
(3.61) (0.01) (9.66) 72.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.76 8.76 (0.12) 0.00 0.00 (38.42) (40.00) (78.54)
Dec-11A 9.1% 0.0% 60.3% 0.07 0.25 173 8.9% 56.3% 84.72 N/A N/A 41.0% 38.6%
Dec-12F 0.4% 8.7% 65.2% 0.12 0.29 5,487 10.8% 52.1% 91.08 N/A N/A 51.5% 38.7%
Dec-13F 2.9% 2.9% 65.2% 0.12 0.29 5,645 10.8% 51.0% 89.76 N/A N/A 52.9% 36.6%
Dec-14F 3.8% 3.8% 65.2% 0.12 0.30 5,860 10.8% 49.2% 89.36 N/A N/A 54.8% 37.6%
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%)
|
Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.0% 1.0%
Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.0% 1.0%
Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.0% 1.0%
Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.0% 1.0%
41
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
Ascendas REIT
AREIT SP / AEMN.SI Current S$2.38 S$2.68 S$2.68 12.4%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$4,355m
S$5,325m
US$11.14m
S$13.68m
81.0%
2,078 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Maintain Outperform
We expect AREIT to show both organic and inorganic growth over FY13-4. Its asset leverage of 32.5% (34.8% factoring in committed developments) still leaves room for accretive debt-funded acquisitions that would enhance DPU growth. Management has been known for having good discipline in acquisitions. We see a potential entry point after the recent profit-taking.
Vol m
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 447.6 339.4 578.6 248.0 0.12 (1.8%) 19.11 0.13 5.56% 35.0% 1.76 1.36 7.48% Mar-12A 503.3 368.3 494.1 281.7 0.14 11.5% 17.13 0.14 5.70% 36.5% 1.88 1.26 7.62% Mar-13F 575.5 408.6 319.3 311.4 0.15 6.6% 16.07 0.14 5.86% 32.1% 1.96 1.21 7.70% 0% 1.08 Mar-14F 622.0 438.5 328.2 328.2 0.15 (0.9%) 16.22 0.15 6.16% 34.9% 1.95 1.22 7.50% 0% 1.04 Mar-15F 638.0 449.8 340.0 340.0 0.15 3.3% 15.70 0.15 6.36% 35.0% 1.95 1.22 7.77% 0% 1.05
Aug-12
2.38 2.50
Current
Target
2.68
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Ascendas REIT
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Mar-12A 6,170 0 334 6,505 20 0 38 2 60 116 575 62 754 1,823 73 1,895 3,915 0 3,915 Mar-13F 6,328 0 425 6,754 19 0 38 2 59 116 575 62 754 1,608 73 1,681 4,377 0 4,377 Mar-14F 6,807 0 235 7,043 23 0 38 2 63 116 575 62 754 1,901 73 1,974 4,377 0 4,377 Mar-15F 6,820 0 235 7,055 25 0 38 2 65 116 575 62 754 1,916 73 1,989 4,377 0 4,377
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Mar-12A 495.7 58.8 (12.2) 1.5 (214.9) 328.8 (234.1) (614.4) (7.2) (855.6) 479.3 393.8 (270.1) (64.5) 538.6 11.8 (521.4) (107.5) Mar-13F 319.3 54.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 374.2 (109.2) 32.0 0.0 (77.2) (214.6) 295.5 (311.4) (67.0) (297.5) (0.5) 302.3 20.0 Mar-14F 328.2 72.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 401.3 (64.0) (225.4) 0.0 (289.4) 292.9 0.0 (328.2) (72.7) (108.0) 3.9 118.3 333.2 Mar-15F 340.0 72.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 412.3 (13.0) 0.0 0.0 (13.0) 15.0 0.0 (340.0) (72.1) (397.1) 2.3 406.4 342.9
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Mar-12A 12.4% 8.5% 73.2% 2.42% 5.21 0.326% 57.0% 0.079 0.079 0.026 (2288%) 8.2% Mar-13F 14.3% 10.9% 71.0% 2.79% 5.52 0.000% 97.5% 0.079 0.079 0.025 190% 4.8% Mar-14F 8.1% 7.3% 70.5% 5.10% 5.14 0.000% 100.0% 0.084 0.084 0.031 140% 4.7% Mar-15F 2.6% 2.6% 70.5% 3.30% 5.25 0.000% 100.0% 0.087 0.087 0.034 424% 4.8%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Mar-12A 1.9 N/A N/A N/A 94.9% 6,291.7 N/A Mar-13F 1.9 N/A N/A N/A 94.9% 6,541.3 N/A Mar-14F 2.0 N/A N/A N/A 94.9% 6,830.7 N/A Mar-15F 2.0 N/A N/A N/A 94.9% 6,843.7 N/A
43
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,202m
S$1,469m
US$1.11m
S$1.34m
41.0%
1,130 m shares
Uncertainty continues
While downside risk is limited by master/minimum income leases in Europe and lower reliance on tourist travel in Asia, Ascotts wide geographical reach increases susceptibility to uncertain macro conditions ahead. Risk of forex fluctuations is still at the forefront.
The uplift in RevPAU could also disappoint despite the spate of enhancements planned. We make no changes to our estimates, DDM-based target price (8.2% discount rate) or Neutral call. Stronger-than-expected RevPAU and receding forex risk are potential rerating catalysts. could be further topped up, given the steady acquisition pace in the past. We have factored in S$100m acquisitions over 2013-14, within debt headroom of S$235m based on 45% gearing (3Q12: 41%).
No compelling catalyst
At close to 1x P/BV and 7% yield, valuations are reasonable. However, we see no compelling reason to turn positive yet. A turnaround in macro headwinds and unexpectedly strong RevPAU growth are potential rerating catalysts.
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 207.2 101.4 156.1 57.7 0.054 6.5% 23.80 0.067 5.17% 39.6% 1.28 1.01 4.18% Dec-11A 288.7 157.5 180.3 96.2 0.065 19.0% 20.00 0.085 6.60% 40.4% 1.36 0.95 4.89% Dec-12F 312.2 167.7 161.2 99.5 0.066 2.8% 19.46 0.087 6.77% 38.9% 1.40 0.92 4.80% 0% 0.93 Dec-13F 331.9 175.8 82.8 105.8 0.074 10.9% 17.55 0.092 7.15% 40.1% 1.38 0.94 5.29% 0% 0.57 Dec-14F 342.3 181.0 85.7 109.4 0.076 2.8% 17.06 0.095 7.35% 41.2% 1.35 0.96 5.56% 0% 0.98
Aug-12
1.29 1.30
Current
Target
1.38
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Dec-11A 2,789 0 64 2,854 145 0 24 0 169 119 261 10 390 960 45 1,005 1,537 91 1,628 Dec-12F 2,815 0 69 2,884 201 0 24 0 225 119 123 10 252 1,086 45 1,130 1,599 128 1,727 Dec-13F 2,823 0 74 2,897 221 0 24 0 245 119 285 10 413 974 45 1,019 1,576 134 1,710 Dec-14F 2,832 0 78 2,909 242 0 24 0 266 119 309 10 437 1,000 45 1,045 1,552 141 1,693
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Dec-11A 225.0 38.0 (11.6) (13.9) (107.6) 129.8 (24.6) (5.7) 1.6 (28.7) 30.4 (1.2) (76.7) (43.5) (91.0) 10.1 101.1 91.4 Dec-12F 188.2 (47.1) 0.0 (20.6) 25.6 146.1 (30.8) 72.3 1.4 42.9 (12.9) 0.0 (99.5) (21.4) (133.8) 55.2 189.0 134.4 Dec-13F 111.6 42.1 0.0 (22.5) 22.9 154.2 (25.4) 0.0 1.9 (23.4) 50.0 0.0 (105.8) (54.5) (110.3) 20.5 130.8 136.7 Dec-14F 115.1 43.7 0.0 (23.0) 23.6 159.4 (25.5) 0.0 2.1 (23.3) 50.0 0.0 (109.4) (56.3) (115.6) 20.4 136.0 140.2
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Dec-11A 39.3% 55.4% 54.6% 27.6% 3.48 13.9% 53% 0.43 0.43 0.37 (149%) 6.19% Dec-12F 8.2% 6.5% 53.7% 2.6% 3.42 11.0% 62% 0.89 0.89 0.80 (315%) 5.26% Dec-13F 6.3% 4.9% 53.0% 5.7% 3.52 20.1% 128% 0.59 0.59 0.54 (353%) 2.65% Dec-14F 3.2% 2.9% 52.9% 2.8% 3.50 20.0% 128% 0.61 0.61 0.55 (417%) 2.71%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Dec-11A N/A N/A 243.0 N/A N/A 2,786.1 N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A 233.3 N/A N/A 2,811.5 N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A 217.0 N/A N/A 2,819.9 N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A 227.8 N/A N/A 2,828.4 N/A
45
ASL Marine
ASL SP / ASLM.SI Current S$0.64 S$0.85 S$0.85 32.7%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$221.1m
S$270.1m
US$0.12m
S$0.14m
37.2%
419.5 m shares
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Jun-11A 363.2 76.4 31.92 0.06 (26.6%) 10.51 0.015 2.34% 6.38 NA 60.6% 0.80 7.9% Jun-12A 391.2 80.3 32.33 0.07 14.3% 9.19 0.018 2.73% 5.82 5.09 52.2% 0.76 8.5% Jun-13F 506.7 94.4 34.26 0.08 16.6% 7.88 0.020 3.13% 5.21 NA 54.3% 0.71 9.3% 0% 0.85 Jun-14F 572.2 105.5 42.80 0.10 24.9% 6.31 0.020 3.13% 3.88 5.28 30.4% 0.65 10.7% 0% 0.94 Jun-15F 540.2 103.8 41.27 0.10 (3.6%) 6.54 0.020 3.13% 3.55 25.86 19.1% 0.60 9.6% 0% 0.82
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.64 0.69
Current
Target
0.85
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
ASL Marine
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Jun-12A 95.5 147.4 10.9 86.3 340.0 509.0 1.5 0.0 3.8 514.2 110.6 152.6 44.9 308.2 174.7 0.0 174.7 8.0 490.8 354.1 9.2 363 4 Jun-13F 42.7 152.7 10.9 111.4 317.7 527.4 1.7 0.0 3.8 532.9 104.6 152.7 43.4 300.7 150.7 0.0 150.7 8.0 459.3 381.0 10.2 391 3 Jun-14F 85.5 156.8 10.9 117.9 371.0 523.9 1.9 0.0 3.8 529.6 96.6 188.1 62.7 347.4 118.7 0.0 118.7 8.0 474.0 415.4 11.2 426 6 Jun-15F 87.5 148.0 10.9 108.4 354.7 520.7 2.1 0.0 3.8 526.6 88.6 177.6 60.0 326.2 86.7 0.0 86.7 8.0 420.8 448.2 12.2 460 5
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Jun-12A 80.3 (1.4) 5.5 (3.1) (11.4) (5.6) 64.3 (63.8) 30.4 (0.8) (0.1) (34.3) 23.0 0.0 0.0 (6.3) (0.9) 15.8 Jun-13F 94.4 (32.0) 0.0 (12.0) (5.7) 44.7 (80.0) 20.0 0.0 0.0 (60.0) (30.0) 0.0 0.0 (7.4) 0.0 (37.4) Jun-14F 105.5 44.1 0.0 (11.3) (7.1) 131.2 (60.0) 20.0 0.0 0.0 (40.0) (40.0) 0.0 0.0 (8.4) 0.0 (48.4) Jun-15F 103.8 5.2 0.0 (11.7) (6.8) 90.4 (60.0) 20.0 0.0 0.0 (40.0) (40.0) 0.0 0.0 (8.4) 0.0 (48.4)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Jun-12A 7.7% 5.1% 20.5% (0.45) 0.84 4.19 12.7% 25.5% 124.7 12.83 157.4 6.40% 6.86% Jun-13F 29.5% 17.4% 18.6% (0.50) 0.90 4.34 14.0% 24.6% 108.1 9.00 126.6 7.83% 8.08% Jun-14F 12.9% 11.8% 18.4% (0.31) 0.98 5.42 14.0% 19.7% 98.7 7.96 125.0 8.44% 9.53% Jun-15F (5.6%) (1.6%) 19.2% (0.21) 1.06 5.10 13.8% 20.4% 103.0 8.47 142.8 8.94% 9.39%
Key Drivers
Outstanding Orderbook (S$m) Order Book Wins (S$m) Orderbook Depletion (S$m) Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$) No. Of Ships (unit) Average Utilisation Rate (%) Jun-12A 586.0 500.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-13F 509.1 250.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-14F 434.5 300.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-15F 411.8 300.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
47
Biosensors Int'l
BIG SP / BIOS.SI Current S$1.14 S$1.79 S$1.79 57.0%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,601m
S$1,956m
US$4.31m
S$5.29m
42.0%
1,718 m shares
Guidance unchanged
Terumo has stated that it will be fighting to claw back market share lost in 2HFY13, which should offer a respite for BIGs licensing revenue. Management guidance for FY13 revenue growth remains intact at 20-30%, largely because BIG is giving Terumo help in Nobori sales in Japan and the newly-renegotiated favourable royalty agreement should offset competition and any mandatory potential price cut. That said, we stay conservative and pare down our licensing revenue assumptions in view of the lingering effects of competition in 2H13. But we hold on to our optimistic FY14-15 estimates.
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 156.6 47.3 43.3 0.04 26% 24.32 0% 14.57 63.30 (59.5%) 2.75 16.1% Mar-12A 292.1 111.5 364.3 0.21 451% 3.66 0% 9.97 NA (24.7%) 1.46 48.8% Mar-13F 321.8 149.9 117.8 0.07 (68%) 13.87 0% 8.30 17.77 (44.7%) 1.87 11.8% 0% 0.93 Mar-14F 391.0 176.8 145.8 0.08 24% 11.20 0% 6.86 11.01 (46.6%) 1.81 16.4% 0% 1.03 Mar-15F 434.8 191.2 160.6 0.09 10% 10.17 0% 6.45 9.67 (43.7%) 1.78 17.7% 0% 1.04
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
1.79
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Biosensors Int'l
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Mar-12A 314 73 35 8 430 43 0 784 0 828 37 21 58 115 0 3 3 22 140 1,118 0 1,118 Mar-13F 390 85 44 3 523 30 0 622 0 653 0 10 42 53 0 229 229 22 303 873 0 873 Mar-14F 420 103 52 3 579 23 0 622 0 646 0 12 44 56 0 247 247 22 324 901 0 901 Mar-15F 400 115 57 3 575 19 0 622 0 642 0 12 44 56 0 224 224 22 301 916 0 916
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Mar-12A 111.5 (7.2) (28.1) (259.4) 13.3 10.9 (1.2) (12.9) (173.1) (5.2) 0.1 (26.5) 0.0 (31.7) (0.0) 7.7 0.0 0.0 (196.9) (189.2) Mar-13F 149.9 0.0 (25.7) 0.0 17.2 (2.0) 2.0 (8.4) 133.0 (4.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (4.0) (37.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (51.6) (88.7) Mar-14F 176.8 0.0 (25.4) 0.0 12.3 (2.1) 2.1 (10.4) 153.3 (5.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (5.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (184.6) (184.6) Mar-15F 191.2 0.0 (15.4) 0.0 9.6 (2.0) 2.0 (11.5) 173.9 (5.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (5.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (211.3) (211.3)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Mar-12A 86.6% 136% 38.2% 0.16 0.64 17.69 0.4% 0% 69.45 178.4 31.49 259% 13.7% Mar-13F 10.2% 34% 46.6% 0.22 0.50 N/A 12.5% 0% 87.53 204.8 32.30 15% 13.0% Mar-14F 21.5% 18% 45.2% 0.24 0.51 N/A 12.5% 0% 86.59 211.9 23.03 22% 18.3% Mar-15F 11.2% 8% 44.0% 0.23 0.52 N/A 12.5% 0% 90.22 220.9 24.01 24% 19.7%
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv) Mar-12A N/A 55.6% N/A N/A 370.4% N/A Mar-13F N/A 24.5% N/A N/A -23.2% N/A Mar-14F N/A 13.9% N/A N/A 54.8% N/A Mar-15F N/A 12.9% N/A N/A 7.3% N/A
49
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,222m
S$1,494m
US$0.31m
S$0.39m
41.0%
258.9 m shares
Landed resilience
We like Bukit Sembs competitive advantage in landed developments, which should benefit from resilient domestic demand fuelled by prolonged low interest rates. The net cash position continues to strengthen further. We see a possibility of stronger dividends ahead.
We continue to like the stock for its landed sites, making up >75% of landbank. Non-landed high end apartments, while still seeing slower sales, have likely bottomed and are less exposed to a policy overhang. No change to estimates and RNAV target price (35% discount to RNAV). Catalysts include a pick-up in high-end sales and dividend surprise. Maintain Outperform.
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
6.2 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.2 Vol th 3.7 600 400 200
Nov-11
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 515.1 181.3 168.9 0.65 419% 8.92 0.12 2.13% 9.13 13.45 24.8% 1.51 18.4% Mar-12A 390.6 143.1 169.4 0.51 (21%) 11.30 0.18 3.16% 10.14 11.66 (2.1%) 1.37 12.7% Mar-13F 544.3 247.2 204.9 0.79 55% 7.29 0.17 3.02% 6.42 NA 7.5% 1.19 17.5% 0% 1.00 Mar-14F 625.7 271.4 222.6 0.86 9% 6.71 0.16 2.71% 4.67 5.36 (15.9%) 1.04 16.6% 0% 1.04 Mar-15F 636.3 259.8 217.7 0.84 (2%) 6.86 0.15 2.65% 3.35 3.14 (38.6%) 0.93 14.3% 0% 1.05
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
5.77 5.77
Current
Target
6.45
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Mar-12A 298 16 0 1,124 1,438 0 5 0 0 5 0 49 18 67 275 10 285 0 352 1,092 0 1,092 Mar-13F 157 75 0 1,338 1,569 0 17 0 0 17 0 45 25 70 250 15 265 0 335 1,251 0 1,251 Mar-14F 371 86 0 1,192 1,649 0 25 0 0 25 0 51 29 81 143 17 160 0 241 1,433 0 1,433 Mar-15F 783 87 0 969 1,840 0 32 0 0 32 0 52 30 82 161 17 178 0 260 1,612 0 1,612
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Mar-12A 143.1 77.9 Mar-13F 247.2 (269.5) Mar-14F 271.4 145.2 Mar-15F 259.8 223.4
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Mar-12A (24%) (21%) 36.6% 0.09 4.22 21.2 12.4% 39.8% 17.37 N/A N/A 10.3% 10.7% Mar-13F 39% 73% 45.4% (0.36) 4.83 74.8 18.0% 22.0% 30.33 N/A N/A 19.1% 17.7% Mar-14F 15% 10% 43.4% 0.88 5.54 90.4 18.0% 18.2% 46.75 N/A N/A 16.8% 17.8% Mar-15F 2% (4%) 40.8% 2.40 6.22 151.0 18.0% 18.2% 49.58 N/A N/A 18.0% 16.0%
52.4 1.0 0.0 (25.9) 248.5 0.0 1.3 0.0 44.2 45.5 (167.6) 15.6 0.0 (46.6) (2.3) (200.8)
0.0 0.0 (31.3) (53.6) 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 (25.2) 0.0 0.0 (45.1) (24.0) (94.3)
0.0 0.0 (34.0) 382.6 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 (106.9) 0.0 0.0 (40.5) (24.0) (171.4)
0.0 0.0 (33.2) 449.9 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 7.5 17.8 0.0 0.0 (39.6) (23.0) (44.8)
RNAV RNAV (S$m) 7 2,294 41 2,342 228 2,570 259 9.92 Discount to RNAV 35% % of GAV 0% 98% 2% 100%
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Mar-12A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41.4% N/A 100.0% N/A N/A Mar-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.9% N/A 100.0% N/A N/A Mar-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 43.4% N/A 100.0% N/A N/A Mar-15F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41.7% N/A 100.0% N/A N/A
Investment Properties Development GDV AFS financial assets and others GAV Less: FY14 net debt (incl any off b/s debt) RNAV Fully-diluted no. of shares (m) RNAV per share (S$)
Target Price
6.45
51
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$686.5m
S$839.4m
US$1.25m
S$1.53m
87.9%
638.9 m shares
Stability premium
With almost all assets on master leases, this is one of the most stable REITs. Growth is driven by 1.25-2.5% rental escalation per annum while the pipeline of sponsor and third-party assets provides greater certainty of acquisition growth. Yields are still attractive at this level.
No change to DPU estimates and DDM-based target price (7.7% discount rate). We like Caches portfolio of quality assets and defensiveness of leases. We reiterate our Outperform rating, with accretive acquisitions being the catalyst. On top of resilient organic growth, acquisitions are a possibility with a clear pipeline of assets from the sponsor and third parties though the former remains subject to market conditions, the sponsors need for divestment and pricing. Management has kept a close watch on the Malaysia market and one Malaysian asset has been added to the pipeline since 2Q12. Managements acquisition track record, albeit short, lends comfort.
Acquisition-led growth
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 42.44 41.36 62.00 35.44 0.049 0.0% 24.31 0.056 4.67% 23.0% 0.91 1.32 Dec-11A 64.61 61.92 69.84 52.49 0.073 47.7% 16.46 0.082 6.89% 29.1% 0.93 1.29 7.91% Dec-12F 72.26 68.65 50.83 55.84 0.076 4.5% 15.75 0.081 6.81% 32.0% 0.93 1.28 8.16% 0% 1.15 Dec-13F 80.93 77.32 54.96 60.71 0.078 3.1% 15.28 0.086 7.21% 38.3% 0.93 1.29 8.43% 0% 0.99 Dec-14F 86.30 82.69 58.55 65.13 0.083 5.9% 14.43 0.092 7.68% 38.3% 0.92 1.30 8.98% 0% 1.04
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.20 1.26
Current
Target
1.36
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Dec-11A 843 0 0 843 12 0 0 0 12 6 0 0 6 249 5 254 594 0 594 Dec-12F 944 0 0 944 33 0 0 0 33 6 0 0 6 313 5 318 652 0 652 Dec-13F 1,044 0 0 1,044 33 0 0 0 33 6 0 0 6 413 5 418 652 0 652 Dec-14F 1,044 0 0 1,044 33 0 0 0 33 6 0 0 6 413 5 418 652 0 652
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Dec-11A 70.2 8.9 2.9 (0.4) 3.8 85.4 (6.6) (67.7) (0.0) (74.3) 75.0 (0.0) (51.4) (6.7) 16.9 28.0 11.1 79.4 Dec-12F 50.8 10.1 0.0 0.0 3.3 64.2 (0.0) (101.0) 0.0 (101.0) 64.0 58.0 (55.8) (6.7) 59.5 22.7 (36.8) 20.5 Dec-13F 55.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 72.7 (0.0) (100.0) 0.1 (99.9) 100.0 0.0 (60.7) (10.6) 28.7 1.4 (27.2) 62.1 Dec-14F 58.5 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.8 79.0 (0.0) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 (65.1) (12.3) (77.5) 1.7 79.1 66.8
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Dec-11A 52.2% 49.7% 95.8% 47.5% 6.21 0.51% 75% 2.03 2.03 1.99 (1866%) 8.69% Dec-12F 11.9% 10.9% 95.0% (1.2%) 6.02 0.00% 110% 5.50 5.50 5.47 (1075%) 5.55% Dec-13F 12.0% 12.6% 95.5% 5.9% 4.91 0.00% 110% 5.50 5.50 5.46 (1216%) 5.35% Dec-14F 6.6% 6.9% 95.8% 6.6% 4.71 0.00% 111% 5.50 5.50 5.46 (1309%) 5.44%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Dec-11A 1.5 N/A N/A N/A 100.0% N/A N/A Dec-12F 1.5 N/A N/A N/A 100.0% N/A N/A Dec-13F 1.5 N/A N/A N/A 100.0% N/A N/A Dec-14F 1.6 N/A N/A N/A 100.0% N/A N/A
53
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
Capitacommercial Trust
CCT SP / CACT.SI Current S$1.60 S$1.69 S$1.69 6.1%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$3,709m
S$4,535m
US$11.80m
S$14.60m
67.9%
2,833 m shares
Positives priced in
CCT has been among the top performers across S-REITs YTD. Trading now at 1x P/BV and with yields of 5% (lowest among office REITs), we see upside limited, given the flat DPU profile over the next two years, as positive rental reversions are eroded by expiring income support.
No change to DPU estimates and DDM-based target price (discount rate: 7.3%). Maintain Underperform. We see de-rating catalysts from potentially expensive acquisitions. search of purchases, and has previously noted possibilities of venturing outside the CBD in search of good-quality assets in suburban regional centres. Possible purchases here could include Westgate Tower (co-developed by CMA, CMT and Capland), though completion is further out at end-FY14. Whilst this could help mitigate the cash drag, risks could come from expensive or poor purchases given the current tight yields for office properties.
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Stable FY13
We expect FY13 to remain stable for CCT as positive rental reversions of low expiring rents of S$7-9psf and potential interest cost savings (with the expiry of a high-cost interest rate swap) mitigate downside from downtime on back-filling and the expiry of income support at One George Street. Management has thus far been fairly successful in back-filling departures at One George Street and Capital Tower. The next test is likely to come from the departure of Wong Partnership in mid-2013, which is among its largest tenants at One George Street.
Downgrade to Underperform
CCT has been among the top share price performers across S-REITs YTD. Trading now at 1x P/BV and with yields of 5% (lowest among office REITs and among lowest within sector), we believe that a potential office bottoming could have been priced in. Upside is also limited, particularly given the fairly flat DPU profile over the next two years, as positive rental reversions are eroded by expiring income support at One George Street.
Price Close
Vol m
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 391.9 299.0 498.1 221.0 0.11 39.0% 14.42 0.078 4.91% 25.2% 1.51 1.05 7.57% Dec-11A 361.2 277.3 474.4 212.8 0.07 (41.0%) 24.44 0.075 4.71% 29.9% 1.60 0.99 4.19% Dec-12F 386.1 301.5 263.9 226.1 0.07 9.3% 22.36 0.080 4.99% 30.4% 1.61 0.99 4.43% 0% 1.24 Dec-13F 386.9 304.9 224.3 230.4 0.07 4.0% 21.51 0.081 5.06% 31.1% 1.61 0.99 4.60% 0% 1.04 Dec-14F 387.3 303.5 221.9 225.6 0.07 (1.5%) 21.83 0.079 4.94% 32.0% 1.60 0.99 4.55% 0% 0.92
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.60 1.60
Current
Target
1.69
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Capitacommercial Trust
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Dec-11A 6,151 0 1 6,152 577 0 25 0 602 70 569 17 657 1,448 93 1,542 4,541 0 4,541 Dec-12F 6,730 11 1 6,742 93 0 25 0 118 75 0 17 93 2,085 93 2,178 4,590 0 4,590 Dec-13F 6,828 7 1 6,837 66 0 25 0 91 75 197 17 290 1,955 93 2,048 4,590 0 4,590 Dec-14F 6,954 6 1 6,961 36 0 25 0 61 76 350 17 443 1,896 93 1,989 4,590 0 4,590
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Dec-11A 474.4 71.1 (66.4) 0.0 (271.0) 208.0 (276.5) 33.0 (59.6) (303.1) 269.9 0.0 (217.6) (16.3) 36.1 (59.0) (93.5) 114.7 Dec-12F 263.9 71.1 4.8 (0.0) (44.8) 295.1 (28.6) (446.7) (60.3) (535.7) 67.2 0.0 (231.2) (79.3) (243.3) (483.9) (237.3) (243.1) Dec-13F 224.3 70.0 0.2 (0.0) 2.9 297.4 (31.2) (0.7) (63.1) (95.0) 67.2 0.0 (235.5) (61.3) (229.6) (27.2) 203.0 199.1 Dec-14F 221.9 70.9 0.1 (0.0) 5.4 298.3 (31.4) (0.7) (90.1) (122.2) 94.1 0.0 (230.7) (69.3) (205.9) (29.9) 176.4 196.4
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Dec-11A (7.83%) (7.25%) 76.8% (4.18%) 3.23 0.001% 45% 0.92 0.92 0.88 (84%) 7.33% Dec-12F 6.88% 8.72% 78.1% 5.88% 3.66 0.011% 86% 1.28 1.28 1.01 (435%) 3.88% Dec-13F 0.22% 1.14% 78.8% 1.55% 3.90 0.011% 103% 0.31 0.31 0.23 (503%) 3.25% Dec-14F 0.09% (0.49%) 78.4% (2.37%) 3.74 0.011% 102% 0.14 0.14 0.08 (470%) 3.18%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Dec-11A 7.8 N/A N/A N/A 85.1% 6,011.7 N/A Dec-12F 8.3 N/A N/A N/A 96.6% 6,590.8 N/A Dec-13F 8.1 N/A N/A N/A 95.6% 6,689.2 N/A Dec-14F 8.1 N/A N/A N/A 98.0% 6,814.6 N/A
55
CapitaLand
CAPL SP / CATL.SI Current S$3.46 S$4.02 S$4.02 16.2%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$12,029m
S$14,708m
US$24.25m
S$29.65m
60.5%
4,262 m shares
Valuation discounts
CapLand trades at a 31% discount to RNAV, making it the cheapest large cap in the sector. While some investors do not like its overly diversified structure, we believe that the group is making strides in focusing on and going deeper into its core markets. We see scope for more streamlining initiatives which may include rationalising its presence in Australia and ownership of some non-core industrial properties.
Price Close
Vol m
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 3,383 881 1,273 0.08 (35.1%) 42.57 0.060 1.73% 25.38 NA 19.2% 1.04 2.55% Dec-11A 2,882 831 782 0.08 1.5% 46.65 0.042 1.20% 31.69 NA 24.3% 1.00 2.47% Dec-12F 2,830 745 835 0.08 (0.5%) 46.96 0.046 1.33% 43.11 NA 45.7% 0.95 2.34% 0% 1.20 Dec-13F 4,079 1,115 679 0.16 91.6% 24.51 0.080 2.31% 28.96 NA 45.0% 0.93 4.32% 0% 0.85 Dec-14F 5,186 1,573 1,059 0.25 56.0% 15.71 0.075 2.16% 20.44 31.55 41.5% 0.89 6.52% 0% 1.07
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
3.46 3.49
Current
Target
4.02
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
CapitaLand
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 4,836 2,053 5,677 395 12,961 1,190 16,764 392 0 18,346 1,598 1,737 423 3,758 7,796 966 8,762 0 12,520 14,776 4,011 18 787 Dec-12F 3,877 1,706 8,110 194 13,886 1,135 21,546 430 0 23,111 919 2,093 413 3,426 12,110 1,415 13,525 0 16,951 15,526 4,520 20 045 Dec-13F 2,054 2,235 7,030 279 11,598 1,193 23,569 620 0 25,382 795 3,017 581 4,394 10,471 1,632 12,103 0 16,496 15,865 4,618 20 484 Dec-14F 1,813 2,557 6,639 355 11,364 1,244 25,668 788 0 27,700 756 3,836 710 5,303 9,964 2,357 12,321 0 17,623 16,606 4,834 21 440
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 831 (107) Dec-12F 745 (1,047) Dec-13F 1,115 1,557 Dec-14F 1,573 941
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (14.8%) (5.7%) 28.8% (1.07) 3.47 1.75 10.7% 50.0% 265.5 1,128 349.0 7.0% 3.13% Dec-12F (1.8%) (10.3%) 26.3% (2.15) 3.65 1.44 5.8% 69.0% 243.1 1,432 397.8 7.3% 2.59% Dec-13F 44.1% 49.6% 27.3% (2.17) 3.73 2.06 11.8% 50.0% 176.3 1,088 367.2 9.7% 3.49% Dec-14F 27.1% 41.1% 30.3% (2.10) 3.91 3.38 11.8% 30.0% 168.7 773 387.3 16.3% 4.87%
(332) 482 0 (106) 768 (2,012) 770 0 0 (1,242) (965) 0 0 (177) (452) (1,594)
(333) 183 0 (128) (579) (2,858) 1,207 0 0 (1,651) 839 (15) 0 (195) (488) 141
81 (231) 0 (122) 2,399 (2,358) 759 0 0 (1,598) (1,764) 0 0 (339) (521) (2,624)
41 (191) 0 (181) 2,183 (2,104) 994 0 0 (1,110) (546) 0 0 (318) (451) (1,314)
RNAV China Resi SIN Resi Other Resi Mixed D/Commercial China SIN Others Fund Management & Origination / Others Listed vehicles Group GAV (S$m) Other adjustments Less: Adj net debt, OBS debt and devt capex Group RNAV (S$m) Share base Group RNAV (S$ per share) -Disc/Prem to RNAV -20%
% of GAV 13% 7% 1%
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65.3% 29.7% N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 58.7% 36.9% N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 70.1% 26.8% N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 75.4% 22.1% N/A
5,276 17% 2,871 9% 816 3% 2,015 6% 13,769 44% 31,233 100% 2,089 (11,987) 21,335 4,250 5.02
Target price
4.02
57
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
CapitaMall Trust
CT SP / CMLT.SI Current S$2.07 S$2.23 S$2.23 7.7%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$5,640m
S$6,896m
US$13.63m
S$16.72m
70.0%
3,328 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Price Close
Vol m
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 581.1 399.1 265.7 294.8 0.08 (12.0%) 25.74 0.09 4.48% 35.1% 1.55 1.33 5.17% Dec-11A 630.6 418.2 389.6 301.6 0.08 2.5% 25.11 0.09 4.53% 37.3% 1.58 1.31 5.27% Dec-12F 667.5 446.1 486.5 324.8 0.09 11.4% 22.53 0.10 4.71% 36.8% 1.60 1.29 5.78% 0% 1.45 Dec-13F 707.6 476.4 329.0 348.0 0.10 5.6% 21.34 0.10 4.87% 36.4% 1.62 1.28 6.03% 0% 0.99 Dec-14F 723.2 488.7 362.5 381.5 0.10 8.2% 19.72 0.11 5.34% 36.7% 1.62 1.28 6.48% 0% 1.00
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
2.07 2.20
Current
Target
2.23
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
CapitaMall Trust
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Dec-11A 8,383 0 2 8,385 758 0 30 0 788 255 782 1 1,039 2,641 246 2,887 5,246 0 5,246 Dec-12F 8,522 0 4 8,526 543 0 30 0 573 269 933 1 1,204 2,414 155 2,570 5,326 0 5,326 Dec-13F 8,625 0 6 8,632 819 0 30 0 849 286 782 1 1,070 2,668 155 2,823 5,587 0 5,587 Dec-14F 8,684 0 10 8,694 833 0 30 0 863 292 782 1 1,076 2,726 155 2,882 5,599 0 5,599
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Dec-11A 390 107 0 0 (116) 380 (132) (285) 0 (417) 551 231 (300) (100) 382 345 (34) 415 Dec-12F 485 98 14 2 (92) 508 (148) 44 38 (65) (182) 0 (325) (124) (632) (189) 446 135 Dec-13F 329 103 17 (0) 5 455 (58) 11 36 (11) 103 250 (348) (129) (125) 319 446 417 Dec-14F 363 82 6 (0) 5 456 (20) 34 34 48 59 0 (382) (130) (453) 51 508 433
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Dec-11A 8.51% 4.78% 66.3% 1.1% 2.78 0.012% 77% 0.76 0.76 0.73 (237%) 4.50% Dec-12F 5.86% 6.65% 66.8% 4.1% 3.14 0.000% 67% 0.48 0.48 0.45 (179%) 5.33% Dec-13F 6.01% 6.80% 67.3% 3.3% 3.27 0.012% 106% 0.79 0.79 0.77 (182%) 3.54% Dec-14F 2.20% 2.58% 67.6% 9.6% 3.31 0.012% 105% 0.80 0.80 0.77 (177%) 3.81%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Dec-11A 11.4 N/A N/A N/A 85.0% N/A N/A Dec-12F 11.4 N/A N/A N/A 90.7% N/A N/A Dec-13F 11.6 N/A N/A N/A 98.7% N/A N/A Dec-14F 12.1 N/A N/A N/A 99.1% N/A N/A
59
CapitaMalls Asia
CMA SP / CMAL.SI Current S$1.91 S$1.99 S$1.99 4.4%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$6,073m
S$7,426m
US$8.53m
S$10.49m
30.0%
3,884 m shares
Now on execution
We believe operating indicators are finally on a rise. Yields on cost are gradually rising though still dragged by leasing cycles and legacy issues. We believe valuations have reflected a turnaround and see execution and asset recycling to dictate share price in FY13.
No change to estimates and RNAV target price, still at 10% discount to RNAV. Maintain Neutral. We retain 0ur preference for CapLand.
1M 7.5 5.8 3M 17.4 16.1 12M 37.4 51 % held 65.5
Valuations
Maintain Neutral. We see execution and asset recycling to dictate share price in FY13.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 245.4 67.0 446.8 0.070 (2.6%) 27.30 0.020 1.05% 102.3 8.7 (10.5%) 1.27 4.81% Dec-11A 246.2 27.6 539.8 0.042 (39.8%) 45.36 0.030 1.57% 286.3 8.5 3.8% 1.19 2.71% Dec-12F 296.0 71.2 470.5 0.061 44.1% 31.47 0.030 1.57% 149.2 804.2 43.3% 1.12 3.67% 0% 1.10 Dec-13F 338.7 98.9 270.3 0.070 14.7% 27.45 0.030 1.57% 119.6 43.0 59.4% 1.10 4.05% 0% 0.92 Dec-14F 386.0 122.0 324.2 0.083 19.9% 22.88 0.030 1.57% 105.3 15.6 71.7% 1.07 4.73% 0% 0.95
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.91 1.91
Current
Target
1.99
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
CapitaMalls Asia
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 982 218 0 2 1,202 16 6,860 0 0 6,876 239 213 51 504 991 107 1,097 0 1,601 6,250 228 6 477 Dec-12F 800 284 0 2 1,086 17 9,979 0 0 9,996 731 284 62 1,077 3,033 128 3,161 0 4,238 6,604 240 6 844 Dec-13F 745 371 0 3 1,119 14 11,315 0 0 11,328 953 325 71 1,348 3,950 147 4,097 0 5,445 6,757 246 7 003 Dec-14F 957 423 0 3 1,383 12 12,575 0 0 12,587 1,192 370 81 1,643 4,944 167 5,111 0 6,754 6,965 254 7 219
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 28 191 Dec-12F 71 15 Dec-13F 99 (38) Dec-14F 122 3
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 0.3% (59%) 11.2% (0.06) 1.61 0.62 3.6% 74.4% 530.9 1,008 13% 0.64% Dec-12F 20.2% 158% 24.1% (0.76) 1.70 0.85 5.3% 55.9% 310.2 821 (212%) 1.07% Dec-13F 14.4% 39% 29.2% (1.07) 1.74 0.79 11.0% 43.1% 352.9 877 (183%) 1.01% Dec-14F 13.9% 23% 31.6% (1.33) 1.79 0.76 11.0% 35.9% 375.5 878 (1231%) 1.08%
(365) 541 0 (33) 360 (19) 0 0 6 (13) 530 0 0 (117) (41) 373
(350) 435 0 (30) 141 (3,450) 749 0 34 (2,666) 2,534 0 0 (117) (75) 2,343
(257) 257 0 (22) 103 (885) 0 0 24 (861) 1,233 0 0 (117) (147) 970
RNAV RNAV (S$m) % of GAV China 7,567 49% Singapore 5,287 34% Malaysia 887 6% Japan 624 4% India 80 1% Fund and REIT management 957 6% GAV 15,402 100% Less: Est net debt (incl any off b/s capex) (6,797) RNAV 8,605 Fully-diluted share base 3,884 RNAV per share 2.22 -Disc/Prem to RNAV Target price -10% 1.99
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 22.8% N/A 429.9% N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 29.0% N/A 65.2% N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 32.5% N/A 66.1% N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 35.6% N/A 66.0% N/A
61
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,517m
S$1,855m
US$3.27m
S$3.97m
67.0%
964.8 m shares
Little to excite
With visitor arrivals moderating and RevPARs still near previous peaks, we see little room for further outperformance. Acquisitions will be pricey while foreign asset additions could dilute its positioning and the appeal of its pure local tourism exposure.
We maintain our DPU estimates, DDM-target price (discount rate: 7.7%) and Neutral rating. The stock could be catalysed by a recovery in the corporate travel market and accretive acquisitions. 2013 additions expected to be double 2012s. This, coupled with a slowdown in arrivals, point to a trough in the room-to-arrivals ratio in 2012 as room supply starts outpacing arrivals next year. We are projecting a 1% yoy RevPar increase in 2013 (2012E: +6-7%), reflecting a combination of weaker occupancy and marginally stronger ARR.
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Maintain Neutral
With visitor arrivals moderating and RevPARs still near previous peaks, we see little room for outperformance. Acquisitions could lead to a rerating but these could be pricey and foreign asset additions could dilute CDLHTs almost pure-local positioning. Management may revert to a 100% payout (currently 90%) policy amid a moderating performance, strong balance sheet and lack of concrete acquisition targets. These could however be more one-off in nature, and not provide much catalyst to the stock.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 122.3 115.1 135.9 92.0 0.10 20.8% 20.12 0.10 5.33% 20.4% 1.52 1.26 6.43% Dec-11A 141.1 135.2 176.3 106.3 0.11 14.7% 17.55 0.11 5.77% 25.2% 1.60 1.19 6.98% Dec-12F 149.0 139.2 109.2 111.6 0.11 3.4% 16.97 0.12 6.01% 25.2% 1.60 1.20 7.05% 0% 0.98 Dec-13F 151.7 141.7 111.5 113.7 0.11 1.9% 16.65 0.12 6.13% 25.2% 1.60 1.20 7.20% 0% 0.96 Dec-14F 155.2 145.0 114.5 116.5 0.12 2.8% 16.21 0.12 6.28% 25.2% 1.60 1.20 7.40% 0% 0.95
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.92 2.10
Current
Target
2.15
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Dec-11A 2,030 0 0 2,030 70 0 18 0 88 23 0 1 24 535 12 547 1,547 0 1,547 Dec-12F 2,036 0 0 2,036 65 0 18 0 83 24 0 1 25 535 12 547 1,547 0 1,547 Dec-13F 2,042 0 0 2,042 60 0 18 0 78 24 0 1 25 535 12 547 1,547 0 1,547 Dec-14F 2,048 0 0 2,048 54 0 18 0 72 25 0 1 26 535 12 547 1,547 0 1,547
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Dec-11A 180.8 13.2 0.2 (4.5) (57.8) 131.8 (12.4) (156.1) 2.2 (166.2) 153.6 0.0 (102.3) (13.5) 37.8 3.5 (33.7) 106.8 Dec-12F 110.6 14.1 1.3 (1.5) 12.3 136.8 (6.1) 0.0 1.4 (4.7) 0.0 0.0 (111.6) (25.4) (136.9) (4.8) 133.5 118.0 Dec-13F 113.0 14.2 0.4 (1.5) 12.3 138.4 (6.1) 0.0 1.3 (4.8) 0.0 0.0 (113.7) (25.5) (139.2) (5.7) 134.9 119.4 Dec-14F 116.1 14.3 0.6 (1.6) 12.2 141.6 (6.1) 0.0 1.2 (4.9) 0.0 0.0 (116.5) (25.7) (142.3) (5.6) 137.9 122.4
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Dec-11A 15.4% 17.5% 95.8% 8.3% 8.29 2.49% 60% 3.74 3.74 2.98 (1743%) 8.84% Dec-12F 5.6% 3.0% 93.5% 4.2% 8.04 1.35% 102% 3.36 3.36 2.63 (2262%) 5.15% Dec-13F 1.8% 1.8% 93.5% 1.9% 8.20 1.36% 102% 3.08 3.08 2.36 (1871%) 5.26% Dec-14F 2.3% 2.3% 93.5% 2.5% 8.41 1.36% 102% 2.79 2.79 2.09 (1802%) 5.40%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Dec-11A N/A N/A 202.2 N/A 88.7% 2,029.8 N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A 213.8 N/A 89.3% 2,035.9 N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A 216.2 N/A 88.6% 2,042.0 N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A 220.6 N/A 88.6% 2,048.2 N/A
63
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$357.9m
S$437.6m
US$4.49m
S$5.46m
56.4%
557.4 m shares
Pay dividends!
We think that unless dividends are declared, corporate-governance concerns may not go away. Management has put in place a share buyback programme but this is unlikely to lead to a stock re-rating, as investors concerns stems from the mis-trust over their assets.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (Rmbm) Operating EBITDA (Rmbm) Net Profit (Rmbm) Core EPS (Rmb) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (Rmb) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Jun-11A 1,929 766 566.5 1.04 (7.8%) 3.06 0% 2.44 NA 5.7% 0.75 21.8% Jun-12A 2,569 920 679.6 1.22 16.9% 3.24 0% 2.98 NA 15.3% 0.62 20.9% Jun-13F 3,419 1,067 779.3 1.40 14.7% 2.86 0% 2.16 7.64 1.7% 0.51 19.6% (0%) 1.06 Jun-14F 3,870 1,159 863.4 1.55 10.8% 2.58 0% 1.36 2.57 (12.5%) 0.43 18.0% 0% 1.06 Jun-15F 4,548 1,315 997.1 1.79 15.5% 2.23 0% 0.49 2.09 (25.3%) 0.36 17.4% 1.02
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.79 1.15
Current
0.82
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(Rmbm) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Jun-12A 66 1,384 104 105 1,659 1,832 0 0 1,096 2,928 613 343 16 972 4 25 29 0 1,000 3,587 0 3,587 Jun-13F 255 1,614 184 98 2,151 2,102 0 0 962 3,064 322 352 157 831 5 13 18 0 848 4,367 0 4,367 Jun-14F 980 1,867 211 98 3,156 2,007 0 0 961 2,968 322 397 157 876 5 13 18 0 894 5,230 0 5,230 Jun-15F 1,905 2,071 248 98 4,322 1,912 0 0 948 2,860 322 459 157 938 5 13 18 0 955 6,227 0 6,227
Cash Flow
(Rmbm) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Jun-12A 920 (551) Jun-13F 1,067 65 Jun-14F 1,159 (235) Jun-15F 1,315 (180)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (Rmb) BVPS (Rmb) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Jun-12A 33.2% 20.2% 35.8% (0.99) 6.44 20.7 6.4% 0% 85.3 18.27 34.77 18.0% 19.9% Jun-13F 33.1% 15.9% 31.2% (0.13) 7.83 26.1 7.0% 0% 100.4 23.48 42.59 15.5% 19.4% Jun-14F 13.2% 8.6% 30.0% 1.17 9.38 41.2 7.0% 0% 98.1 28.07 46.79 15.9% 18.4% Jun-15F 17.5% 13.4% 28.9% 2.83 11.17 47.5 7.0% 0% 101.8 27.76 46.27 17.8% 18.0%
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv) ASP (% chg, tertiary prod/serv) Unit sales grth (%,tertiary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, tertiary prod/serv) Unit raw mat ASP (%chg,main) Total Export Sales Growth (%) Export Sales/total Sales (%) Jun-12A N/A 22.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-13F N/A 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-14F N/A 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-15F N/A 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
65
City Developments
CIT SP / CTDM.SI Current S$11.52 S$10.80 S$10.80 -6.2%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$8,567m
S$10,475m
US$6.89m
S$8.44m
54.7%
954.3 m shares
Trade on valuations
The stock trades at what we believe as a tight 9% discount to RNAV against potentially further curbing measures and physical supply still to come. Short of asset recycling events, we believe current valuation is not compelling.
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 3,129 943 749.0 0.63 (1.1%) 18.34 0.18 1.56% 15.31 8.5 27.6% 1.64 9.23% Dec-11A 3,280 1,023 798.6 0.63 0.8% 18.19 0.18 1.56% 14.11 9.8 21.0% 1.61 8.93% Dec-12F 3,311 854 588.3 0.50 (20.6%) 22.90 0.15 1.33% 18.44 414.3 29.8% 1.51 6.81% 0% 0.94 Dec-13F 3,654 1,027 664.6 0.70 38.4% 16.54 0.17 1.51% 14.86 14.9 21.5% 1.42 8.84% 0% 0.96 Dec-14F 4,429 1,174 799.8 0.84 20.3% 13.75 0.18 1.60% 11.96 7.5 7.0% 1.31 9.90% 0% 1.06
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
11.52 11.98
Current
Target
10.80
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
City Developments
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 2,581 1,201 9 3,295 7,086 3,313 0 0 4,564 7,877 1,477 982 361 2,819 2,929 518 3,447 0 6,266 6,827 1,869 8 696 Dec-12F 2,334 1,361 9 3,669 7,372 3,334 0 0 5,438 8,772 1,707 952 317 2,976 3,386 523 3,908 0 6,885 7,269 1,990 9 259 Dec-13F 2,816 1,452 10 3,373 7,650 3,353 0 0 5,798 9,152 1,658 1,001 350 3,009 3,289 609 3,898 0 6,907 7,767 2,127 9 894 Dec-14F 4,060 1,699 12 2,551 8,321 3,372 0 0 6,125 9,497 1,612 1,213 425 3,250 3,198 681 3,879 0 7,129 8,391 2,297 10 689
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 1,023 (15) Dec-12F 854 (606) Dec-13F 1,027 286 Dec-14F 1,174 859
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 4.9% 8.5% 31.2% (1.91) 7.15 13.13 15.4% 29.4% 115.6 2.17 227.5 6.89% 7.30% Dec-12F 0.9% (16.5%) 25.8% (2.89) 7.62 9.67 14.9% 29.2% 141.6 2.08 227.1 5.58% 5.56% Dec-13F 10.4% 20.3% 28.1% (2.23) 8.14 10.35 15.0% 25.0% 140.5 1.99 207.2 6.07% 6.38% Dec-14F 21.2% 14.4% 26.5% (0.79) 8.79 12.40 15.0% 22.0% 129.8 1.90 193.8 7.02% 7.15%
RNAV Office Hospitality Retail Industrial SIN Residential China Residential Others China Mixed Devts South Beach GAV Add: Adjustment for M&C debt Less: FY11F net debt (incl off b/s debt) RNAV Fully-diluted share base RNAV per share (S$) Target price Disc/Prem -15%
RNAV (S$m) % of GAV 4,331 29% 3,439 23% 1,954 13% 466 3% 3,293 22% 184 1% 48 0% 311 2% 1,136 7% 15,162 100% 10 (3,046) 12,126 954 12.71 10.80
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41.0% 56.2% N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 39.5% 57.7% N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 42.6% 54.9% N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 52.4% 45.5% N/A
67
ComfortDelGro
CD SP / CMDG.SI Current S$1.68 S$1.76 S$1.76 5.2%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,877m
S$3,517m
US$4.03m
S$4.99m
82.0%
2,086 m shares
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 3,207 679.3 228.5 0.11 4.10% 15.29 0.055 3.27% 5.98 12.84 6.16% 1.94 13.1% Dec-11A 3,411 715.8 235.6 0.11 3.11% 14.83 0.060 3.59% 5.76 25.73 2.23% 1.85 12.8% Dec-12F 3,566 752.4 251.6 0.12 6.79% 13.88 0.060 3.60% 5.64 50.29 4.18% 1.73 12.9% 0% 1.02 Dec-13F 3,706 770.9 254.9 0.12 1.30% 13.71 0.061 3.65% 5.54 20.40 2.36% 1.63 12.2% 0% 1.01 Dec-14F 3,866 804.1 264.5 0.13 3.76% 13.21 0.063 3.79% 5.25 14.04 (1.58%) 1.53 12.0% 0% 0.98
Aug-12
1.68 1.72
Current
Target
1.76
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
ComfortDelGro
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 577 346 57 0 979 2,604 92 553 361 3,610 198 601 203 1,002 434 140 574 540 2,115 1,892 582 2,474 Dec-12F 520 320 71 0 912 2,828 99 553 361 3,841 198 535 235 968 434 140 574 540 2,081 2,017 654 2,671 Dec-13F 564 324 74 0 963 2,990 107 553 361 4,010 198 556 233 987 434 140 574 540 2,100 2,145 728 2,873 Dec-14F 681 329 77 0 1,087 3,095 114 553 361 4,123 198 580 236 1,015 434 140 574 540 2,128 2,277 805 3,082
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 715.8 (5.3) 98.5 (336.6) 349.2 (35.3) (44.1) 742.2 (560.6) 78.0 (6.5) 2.6 (486.5) (119.9) 0.0 0.0 (115.0) (19.3) (254.2) Dec-12F 752.4 (7.1) (55.0) (340.0) 357.8 (31.6) (57.0) 619.5 (550.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (550.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (125.8) 0.0 (125.8) Dec-13F 770.9 (7.4) 14.0 (354.4) 369.3 (31.6) (89.5) 671.3 (500.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (500.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (127.4) 0.0 (127.4) Dec-14F 804.1 (7.7) 16.0 (371.5) 386.9 (31.6) (87.5) 708.8 (460.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (460.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (132.2) 0.0 (132.2)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 6.37% 5.37% 21.0% (0.026) 0.91 11.31 21.5% 53.3% 12.65 7.76 77.09 11.2% 11.4% Dec-12F 4.54% 5.11% 21.1% (0.053) 0.97 13.49 21.7% 50.0% 12.33 8.28 73.58 11.3% 11.7% Dec-13F 3.94% 2.46% 20.8% (0.032) 1.03 13.71 21.0% 50.0% 10.74 9.01 67.58 10.7% 11.2% Dec-14F 4.31% 4.31% 20.8% 0.023 1.09 14.20 21.0% 50.0% 10.72 8.99 67.40 10.6% 11.0%
Key Drivers
Avg fare/trip (%chg,main prod/serv) Ridership grth (%,main prod/serv) Avg fare/trip (%chg,2ndary prod/serv) Ridership grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Dec-11A N/A 6.0% N/A 13.2% Dec-12F N/A 5.0% N/A 5.0% Dec-13F N/A 5.0% N/A 5.0% Dec-14F N/A 5.0% N/A 13.0%
69
Cosco Corporation
COS SP / COSC.SI Current S$0.90 S$0.88 S$0.88 -2.0%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,650m
S$2,015m
US$3.57m
S$4.39m
36.0%
2,239 m shares
Improved execution
For two consecutive quarters, Cosco wrote back S$24.8m of provisions for expected losses on construction contracts. We believe the write-backs, mainly for offshore projects, were made possible by improved efficiency and an appreciating Rmb/US$. Cosco has finally climbed the learning curve in shipbuilding with 300-340 bulker construction days now vs. 540 days in 2009.
Idle yards
Still, conditions are deteriorating in global shipbuilding for containerships
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 3,861 598.5 248.8 0.11 126% 8.10 0.030 3.33% 4.57 NA 7.0% 1.68 21.8% Dec-11A 4,163 469.1 139.7 0.06 (44%) 14.43 0.040 4.44% 7.03 2.50 29.1% 1.55 11.2% Dec-12F 3,914 464.8 108.8 0.05 (22%) 18.52 0.022 2.43% 8.99 56.29 65.5% 1.48 8.2% 0% 0.99 Dec-13F 3,242 441.9 106.6 0.05 (2%) 18.91 0.021 2.38% 9.31 3.01 56.7% 1.42 7.7% 0% 1.06 Dec-14F 2,789 437.9 109.0 0.05 2% 18.50 0.022 2.43% 8.90 6.26 42.3% 1.36 7.5% 0% 0.97
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.88
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Cosco Corporation
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 1,585 2,010 491 160 4,247 2,412 0 10 332 2,754 1,668 2,697 131 4,496 498 6 504 0 5,000 1,301 699 2,000 Dec-12F 1,572 2,681 300 97 4,651 2,384 0 10 333 2,726 1,748 2,145 131 4,024 1,218 6 1,224 0 5,247 1,361 768 2,129 Dec-13F 2,194 2,221 249 83 4,746 2,357 0 10 333 2,700 1,798 1,599 131 3,528 1,668 6 1,674 0 5,202 1,420 824 2,244 Dec-14F 2,467 1,910 214 73 4,664 2,333 0 10 334 2,676 1,798 1,375 131 3,304 1,668 6 1,674 0 4,978 1,480 882 2,362
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 469 (454) Dec-12F 465 (969) Dec-13F 442 (19) Dec-14F 438 132
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 7.8% (21.6%) 11.3% (0.26) 0.58 6.53 25.8% 64.1% 174.8 48.71 281.9 13.2% 9.6% Dec-12F (6.0%) (0.9%) 11.9% (0.62) 0.61 2.99 25.0% 45.0% 219.3 41.26 252.3 9.2% 7.2% Dec-13F (17.2%) (4.9%) 13.6% (0.57) 0.63 3.28 25.0% 45.0% 275.9 34.51 235.3 6.2% 5.5% Dec-14F (14.0%) (0.9%) 15.7% (0.45) 0.66 3.78 25.0% 45.0% 270.3 34.02 218.7 6.2% 5.1%
Key Drivers
Outstanding Orderbook (S$m) Order Book Wins (S$m) Orderbook Depletion (S$m) Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$) No. Of Ships (unit) Average Utilisation Rate (%) Dec-11A N/A 2,200.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A 2,000.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A 2,000.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A 2,000.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
71
CSE Global
CSE SP / CSES.SI Current S$0.80 S$1.06 S$1.06 33.8%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$335.8m
S$410.3m
US$0.35m
S$0.43m
86.0%
516.1 m shares
Undemanding valuations
CSE is trading at 6.8x CY13 P/E, roughly 0.5x standard deviation below its 5-year mean. It also offers 5% dividend yields. An earnings recovery should set it up for stock outperformance.
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 448.1 75.8 52.48 0.10 20.2% 7.74 0.040 5.03% 5.27 NA 0.3% 2.08 31.6% Dec-11A 457.2 46.9 27.66 0.05 (47.5%) 14.76 0.020 2.52% 10.01 39.30 34.6% 2.01 13.9% Dec-12F 532.1 73.2 57.08 0.10 77.6% 8.31 0.040 5.03% 5.85 10.76 7.1% 1.64 21.7% (0%) 1.01 Dec-13F 562.0 91.9 60.19 0.12 21.9% 6.82 0.045 5.66% 4.29 11.73 (5.7%) 1.41 22.2% 0% 1.01 Dec-14F 619.8 104.4 68.62 0.13 14.0% 5.98 0.050 6.29% 3.45 11.18 (14.9%) 1.22 21.9% 0% 1.08
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
1.06
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
CSE Global
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 53.5 109.3 15.3 120.8 298.9 25.0 9.2 103.4 15.2 152.8 123.8 62.9 55.5 242.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 5.1 247.6 204.1 0.0 204.1 Dec-12F 81.4 104.9 14.6 131.2 332.0 24.2 (0.2) 103.4 15.2 142.6 24.9 80.2 39.4 144.5 74.1 0.0 74.1 5.1 223.8 250.9 0.0 250.9 Dec-13F 95.7 110.6 15.4 138.6 360.3 21.5 (0.2) 103.4 15.2 139.9 14.9 84.7 40.9 140.5 64.1 0.0 64.1 5.1 209.8 290.4 0.0 290.5 Dec-14F 109.2 121.7 17.0 152.8 400.7 18.0 (0.2) 103.4 15.2 136.5 4.9 93.4 43.7 142.1 54.1 0.0 54.1 5.1 201.3 335.8 0.0 335.9
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 46.9 (48.8) 16.8 (0.7) (2.6) (18.5) (6.9) (9.1) 0.6 (39.4) 0.0 (47.9) 65.2 6.0 0.0 (20.6) 0.0 50.6 Dec-12F 73.2 10.8 (15.0) 10.0 (4.6) (17.1) 57.4 (4.0) 0.0 9.7 0.0 5.7 (25.0) 0.0 0.0 (10.3) 0.0 (35.3) Dec-13F 91.9 (8.0) 0.0 (4.9) (20.1) 59.0 (4.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (4.0) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 (20.6) 0.0 (40.6) Dec-14F 104.4 (15.3) 0.0 (5.4) (22.9) 60.7 (4.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (4.0) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 (23.2) 0.0 (43.2)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 2.0% (38.1%) 10.3% (0.14) 0.40 10.38 30.4% 37.1% 74.12 16.47 80.10 18.0% 14.3% Dec-12F 16.4% 56.0% 13.8% (0.03) 0.49 12.86 23.0% 43.9% 71.71 14.87 71.33 21.0% 20.1% Dec-13F 5.6% 25.5% 16.3% 0.03 0.56 15.14 25.0% 38.6% 68.14 15.09 83.00 25.8% 23.5% Dec-14F 10.3% 13.6% 16.8% 0.10 0.65 15.64 25.0% 37.6% 66.74 14.90 81.93 28.8% 25.2%
Key Drivers
Outstanding Orderbook (S$m) Order Book Wins (S$m) Orderbook Depletion (S$m) Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$) No. Of Ships (unit) Average Utilisation Rate (%) Dec-11A 437.0 500.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F 454.9 550.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F 492.9 600.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F 603.3 675.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
73
CWT Limited
CWT SP / CWTD.SI Current S$1.24 S$1.68 S$1.68 35.8%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$609.3m
S$744.4m
US$0.46m
S$0.56m
40.0%
600.3 m shares
On surer footing
We were initially sceptical when CWT moved into the unknown world of base metal trading in 3Q11. Five solid quarters allayed our fears of earnings volatility and inefficient risk management. CWTs growth trajectory is certainly on an elevated plane right now.
2012 was an important year for CWT and management performed up to expectations. Over the past five quarters, CWT has already recovered close to 40% of MRIs acquisition consideration of US$94m, by our estimates. Over the past year, management has been busy with expanding its trading product suite, providing further growth boosters. Maintain Outperform with an unchanged SOP-based target price. metal concentrates as well as the systems and processes throughout the organisation.
Consistent performance
Since 3Q11, CWT has been consistently generating around S$17m-20m of quarterly profits. Revenue has grown to over S$1bn every quarter and 9M12 earnings have risen 71.3% yoy. We think that this bears testament to a quality acquisition and the consistent performance is also commendable in a volatile base metal trading business. According to management, CWT does not take proprietary positions, unlike other commodity traders, and is in the process of implementing a risk management system to effectively manage the physical flows of base
Management is not resting on its laurels. In 2012, CWT expanded its trading product suite to refined metals and energy-related products. In addition, despite base metal trading contributing around 50% of groups earnings, CWT has not neglected its core logistics business. CWT ventured into Turkey and Australia in 2012. It is also exploring collaboration in China in Lianyungang Port. Its second cold hub facility is under construction with completion targeted for 1Q14.
Attractive valuations
CWT is currently trading at 7.16x CY14 EPS, which we think is unjustified given its high growth potential. We think that CWT deserves a higher valuation multiple for its elevated growth trajectory and our target price implies a 9.9x CY14 EPS valuation.
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Aug-12
Current
|
Target
1.68
Dec-10A 747 21.6 29.3 0.05 (14.9%) 24.66 0% 24.70 639.6 (41.2%) 1.71 8.1%
Dec-11A 2,580 37.9 55.9 0.09 86.6% 13.21 0% 24.55 NA 35.7% 1.56 12.4%
Dec-12F 4,634 113.2 82.8 0.14 46.9% 8.99 0% 8.90 NA 42.5% 1.31 15.9% 0% 1.04
Dec-13F 4,465 123.5 91.6 0.15 10.7% 8.12 0% 7.14 4.5 19.6% 1.16 15.2% 0% 0.98
Dec-14F 4,765 136.5 102.3 0.17 11.7% 7.27 0% 5.69 8.1 4.4% 1.02 14.9% 0% 0.95
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
CWT Limited
Balance Sheet
Dec-11A 2,580 158 38 6 44 2 8 12 37 (1) 64 (6) 58 (2) Dec-12F 4,634 214 113 (31) 82 (4) 8 31 119 (23) 94 (9) 85 (2) Dec-13F 4,465 231 123 (31) 93 (7) 9 8 106 0 103 (9) 94 (2) Dec-14F 4,765 251 136 (30) 106 (10) 12 8 119 0 115 (11) 105 (2) (S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Dec-11A 212 537 170 86 1,006 311 48 140 101 599 311 486 19 816 83 167 249 31 1,096 476 33 509
Dec-12F 192 772 218 1 1,183 301 56 132 108 597 358 589 0 947 90 110 200 31 1,178 566 35 602
Dec-13F 378 698 232 1 1,308 305 65 124 112 607 409 565 0 974 102 127 229 31 1,234 643 37 680
Dec-14F 493 701 260 1 1,454 310 77 116 117 620 422 600 0 1,022 105 146 251 31 1,304 730 40 770
56 56 56
83 83 83
92 92 92
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Dec-11A 37.9 156.0 Dec-12F 113.2 (181.4) Dec-13F 123.5 37.7 Dec-14F 136.5 3.7 Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
(18.4) (16.3) (5.7) 153.5 (79.7) 32.4 19.3 (435.1) (463.0) 72.9 12.4 (16.0) (10.2) 59.0
(8.7) (21.2) (8.6) (106.7) 0.0 12.0 (20.0) 0.0 (8.0) 54.4 0.0 (15.0) 0.0 39.4
0.0 (25.3) (9.1) 126.7 0.0 (4.5) (20.0) 0.0 (24.5) 63.0 0.0 (15.0) 0.0 48.0
0.0 (29.3) (10.7) 100.2 0.0 (4.6) (20.0) 0.0 (24.6) 16.0 0.0 (15.0) 0.0 1.0
Dec-11A 245% 75% 1.47% (0.30) 0.79 0.98 8.8% 50.9% 48.31 13.03 43.97 3.85% 4.8%
Dec-12F 80% 199% 2.44% (0.43) 0.94 4.03 9.1% 13.9% 51.70 16.08 40.91 8.45% 10.2%
Dec-13F (4%) 9% 2.77% (0.22) 1.07 3.78 8.9% 15.8% 60.08 19.40 45.99 8.44% 9.9%
Dec-14F 7% 11% 2.86% (0.06) 1.22 3.72 9.3% 14.2% 53.56 19.88 43.61 10.00% 10.0%
Key Drivers
(S$) Volumes Moved (% Change) Rates Charged (% Change) Acquisitions (m)
|
75
Retail SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$14,478m
US$14,478m
US$1.39m
US$1.39m
22.0%
1,350 m shares
Unabated growth
Backed by store expansion in Malaysia and Indonesia as well as its excellent Mannings/Guardian health and beauty franchise, we expect 14% yoy core earnings growth for FY13. Already, Dairy Farm looks set to book similar growth this year. Core earnings grew 13% yoy in 1H12 on an 8% yoy increase in revenue. In particular, Malaysia and Indonesia offer potential for growth for the group. These markets are supported by accelerating income, rapid urbanisation, favourable population demographics and an underpenetrated modern retail market. Additionally, the enactment of a minimum wage in Malaysia, Jarkatas recent 44% minimum-wage
Au revoir, Carrefour
With the withdrawal of French retailer, Carrefour, 2013 offers an enticing window of opportunity for Dairy Farm to entrench its market leadership further. In Singapore, it is exploring the takeover of one of Carrefours two hypermarkets. Meanwhile, Japans retailer, Aeon, has acquired Carrefours Malaysian operations while CT Corp, Carrefours Indonesian partner, has taken full control of Carrefour Indonesia.
Vol th
12.1 11.6 11.1 10.6 10.1 9.6 9.1 8.6 8.1 1500 1000 500
Nov-11
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 7,971 637 411.4 0.30 12.5% 35.28 0.18 1.68% 22.11 39.78 (30.4%) 19.74 65.1% Dec-11A 9,134 717 484.6 0.35 15.6% 30.52 0.21 1.96% 19.28 49.94 (50.1%) 15.69 57.3% Dec-12F 10,219 813 538.6 0.40 13.6% 26.87 0.24 2.24% 16.75 34.30 (54.6%) 12.46 51.7% 0% 1.01 Dec-13F 11,419 914 616.3 0.46 14.4% 23.48 0.27 2.52% 14.51 23.59 (66.6%) 10.04 47.3% 0% 1.00 Dec-14F 13,178 1,050 718.0 0.53 16.5% 20.16 0.32 2.99% 12.15 18.36 (79.6%) 8.15 44.6% (0%) 1.00
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
10.72 11.49
Current
Target
12.00
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 730 218 949 48 1,945 896 198 352 148 1,594 130 2,140 87 2,357 133 17 150 101 2,609 923 8 930 Dec-12F 852 196 984 48 2,080 1,022 229 372 148 1,771 120 2,264 87 2,471 93 17 110 101 2,682 1,162 8 1,169 Dec-13F 1,129 219 1,100 48 2,496 1,045 265 392 148 1,851 110 2,529 87 2,726 53 17 70 101 2,898 1,442 8 1,449 Dec-14F 1,533 253 1,269 48 3,103 1,047 309 412 148 1,917 100 2,919 87 3,106 13 17 30 101 3,237 1,775 8 1,783
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 717 39 73 Dec-12F 813 30 110 Dec-13F 914 30 127 Dec-14F 1,050 30 186
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 14.6% 12.6% 7.85% 0.35 0.68 25.37 17.0% 58.5% 7.56 49.94 113.4 95% 42.8% Dec-12F 11.9% 13.5% 7.96% 0.47 0.86 24.35 17.0% 60.2% 7.41 49.24 112.2 131% 44.8% Dec-13F 11.7% 12.4% 8.00% 0.72 1.07 27.87 17.0% 59.1% 6.63 47.37 109.0 138% 44.4% Dec-14F 15.4% 14.9% 7.97% 1.05 1.31 32.51 17.0% 60.2% 6.53 46.66 107.3 201% 44.5%
(350)
(386)
(435)
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) No. of POS (main prod/serv) SSS grth (%, main prod/serv) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) No. of POS (2ndary prod/serv) SSS grth (%, 2ndary prrod/serv) Dec-11A N/A 13.9% 4,552 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A 10.1% 4,715 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A 9.9% 4,903 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A 13.2% 5,102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
77
Banks SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
DBS Group
DBS SP / DBSM.SI Current S$14.17 S$17.36 S$17.36 22.5%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$28,263m
S$34,527m
US$36.11m
S$44.35m
70.3%
2,350 m shares
Daniel Lau
T (65) 62108614 E daniel.lau@cimb.com
Valuations
At 1.03x P/BV, DBS is the cheapest bank in the region. We expect price support as the market begins to appreciate the reduction in DBSs earnings volatility, strong fee income trends and robust capital position.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Net Interest Income (S$m) Total Non-Interest Income (S$m) Operating Revenue (S$m) Total Provision Charges (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
14.17 14.98
Current
|
Target
17.36
Dec-10A 4,318 2,748 7,066 (911.0) 1,632 1.07 18.0% 13.20 0.56 3.95% 11.55 1.23 9.4%
Dec-11A 4,825 2,806 7,631 (722.0) 3,035 1.30 21.9% 10.77 0.56 3.95% 12.25 1.16 11.0%
Dec-12F 5,325 3,192 8,517 (363.1) 3,807 1.45 11.0% 9.71 0.66 4.66% 12.98 1.09 11.5% 0% 1.13
Dec-13F 5,755 2,898 8,654 (589.6) 3,555 1.49 2.6% 9.48 0.61 4.30% 13.69 1.03 11.1% 0% 1.04
Dec-14F 6,268 2,939 9,207 (717.2) 3,735 1.54 3.8% 9.13 0.64 4.52% 14.43 0.98 11.0% 0% 1.01
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
DBS Group
Balance Sheet
Dec-11A 4,825 2,806 7,631 (3,303) 4,328 (722) 3,606 127 3,733 0 3,733 0 3,733 (443) Dec-12F 5,325 3,192 8,517 (3,577) 4,940 (363) 4,577 132 4,709 0 4,709 0 4,709 (683) Dec-13F 5,755 2,898 8,654 (3,782) 4,872 (590) 4,282 138 4,420 0 4,420 0 4,420 (641) Dec-14F 6,268 2,939 9,207 (3,996) 5,211 (717) 4,494 143 4,637 0 4,637 0 4,637 (672) (S$m) Total Gross Loans Liquid Assets & Investments (Current) Other Interest Earning Assets Total Gross Interest Earning Assets Total Provisions/Loan Loss Reserve Total Net Interest Earning Assets Intangible Assets Other Non-Interest Earning Assets Total Non-Interest Earning Assets Cash And Marketable Securities Long-term Investments Total Assets Customer Interest-Bearing Liabilities Bank Deposits Interest Bearing Liabilities: Others Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities Bank's Liabilities Under Acceptances Total Non-Interest Bearing Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Dec-11A 216,186 24,430 240,616 3,660 244,276 4,802 14,810 19,612 25,304 51,655 340,847 218,992 27,601 50,031 296,624 0 11,154 307,778 28,794 4,275 33,069
Dec-12F 238,862 25,212 264,074 4,023 268,097 4,802 15,425 20,227 24,414 54,238 366,975 236,511 32,017 51,565 320,093 0 11,511 331,604 30,877 4,494 35,371
Dec-13F 262,136 26,019 288,154 4,613 292,767 4,802 16,068 20,870 28,003 53,695 395,335 255,432 37,140 53,201 345,773 0 11,879 357,653 32,964 4,718 37,682
Dec-14F 288,436 26,851 315,287 5,330 320,617 4,802 16,737 21,539 28,886 53,158 424,201 273,823 43,082 54,948 371,854 0 12,259 384,113 35,139 4,949 40,088
Key Ratios
Dec-11A 87.0% 86.8% 87.4% 100.0% 57.0% 78.8% 17.0% 62.7% 0.099% 0.062% 0.363% Dec-12F 87.6% 87.5% 87.3% 100.0% 57.5% 78.6% 16.8% 63.3% 0.069% 0.041% 0.205% Dec-13F 90.0% 90.1% 87.7% 100.0% 59.3% 80.1% 16.4% 65.2% 0.081% 0.050% 0.309% Dec-14F 93.3% 93.7% 87.9% 100.0% 61.5% 82.3% 15.8% 67.6% 0.097% 0.062% 0.350% Total Income Growth Operating Profit Growth Pretax Profit Growth Net Interest To Total Income Cost Of Funds Return On Interest Earning Assets Net Interest Spread Net Interest Margin (Avg Deposits) Net Interest Margin (Avg RWA) Provisions to Pre Provisions Operating Profit Interest Return On Average Assets Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio
|
Dec-11A 8.0% 4.5% 61.3% 63.2% 0.69% 2.40% 1.71% 2.14% 2.43% 16.7% 1.55% 11.9% 43.4%
Dec-12F 11.6% 14.1% 26.1% 62.5% 0.77% 2.49% 1.72% 2.19% 2.39% 7.4% 1.50% 14.5% 41.2%
Dec-13F 1.6% (1.4%) (6.1%) 66.5% 0.79% 2.51% 1.72% 2.20% 2.35% 12.1% 1.51% 14.5% 41.3%
Dec-14F 6.4% 7.0% 4.9% 68.1% 0.80% 2.54% 1.74% 2.24% 2.30% 13.8% 1.53% 14.5% 41.7%
Key Drivers
Loan Growth (%) Net Interest Margin (%) Non Interest Income Growth (%) Cost-income Ratio (%) Net NPL Ratio (%) Loan Loss Reserve (%) GP Ratio (%) RWCR (%) Deposit Growth (%) Loan-deposit Ratio (%) Gross NPL Ratio (%) Fee Income Growth (%)
|
Dec-11A 28.4% 1.8% 2.1% 43.3% 1.4% 138.7% 1.2% 15.8% 16.7% 88.7% 1.4% 10.4%
Dec-12F 8.7% 1.7% 13.8% 42.0% 1.3% 147.7% 1.2% 16.5% 8.0% 89.3% 1.3% 3.1%
Dec-13F 10.9% 1.7% -9.2% 43.7% 1.4% 144.7% 1.3% 15.7% 8.0% 91.8% 1.4% 7.2%
Dec-14F 11.2% 1.7% 1.4% 43.4% 1.4% 145.0% 1.3% 14.9% 7.2% 95.2% 1.4% 3.0%
79
Ezion Holdings
EZI SP / EZHL.SI Current S$1.40 S$1.68 S$1.68 19.9%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$988.1m
S$1,207m
US$10.61m
S$13.03m
70.0%
713.7 m shares
1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 Vol m 0.5 200 150 100 50
Nov-11
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 117.1 42.3 40.2 0.05 184% 25.17 0.001 0.087% 22.24 264.0 26.2% 3.90 23.7% Dec-11A 107.0 50.9 58.1 0.07 35% 20.00 0.001 0.087% 20.19 NA 35.2% 3.05 23.9% Dec-12F 152.4 70.3 76.2 0.08 20% 15.66 0.001 0.087% 21.23 NA 94.4% 1.93 18.0% 0% 1.06 Dec-13F 348.6 158.4 128.8 0.14 80% 8.09 0.001 0.087% 10.29 140.0 99.1% 1.60 23.6% 0% 1.02 Dec-14F 466.0 222.2 180.0 0.20 38% 5.76 0.001 0.087% 6.89 230.6 70.9% 1.25 25.7% 0% 1.05
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.40 1.50
Current
Target
1.68
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Ezion Holdings
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 63 32 0 32 127 271 69 0 3 343 39 38 4 82 118 2 120 0 202 268 0 268 Dec-12F 25 50 0 32 107 896 82 0 3 982 111 44 4 160 406 2 408 0 568 521 0 521 Dec-13F 24 115 0 32 171 1,126 108 0 3 1,237 141 84 4 230 526 2 528 0 758 650 0 650 Dec-14F 20 153 0 32 205 1,209 133 0 3 1,346 129 108 4 242 478 2 480 0 722 829 0 829
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 50.9 (19.5) (6.6) 11.1 (0.7) (1.4) 33.8 (144.9) 87.2 (15.1) 0.5 (72.3) 26.5 0.1 0.0 (0.6) 0.0 0.0 26.0 Dec-12F 70.3 (12.1) 0.0 13.2 (2.6) (4.8) 64.0 (663.8) 25.0 0.0 0.0 (638.8) 360.0 77.4 0.0 (0.6) 0.0 100.0 536.9 Dec-13F 158.4 (24.2) 0.0 (2.5) (8.7) 122.9 (265.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (265.5) 150.0 0.0 0.0 (0.6) (7.8) 0.0 141.6 Dec-14F 222.2 (14.5) 0.0 (2.5) (12.0) 193.2 (128.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (128.8) (60.0) 0.0 0.0 (0.7) (7.8) 0.0 (68.5)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (9%) 20% 47.6% (0.13) 0.38 15.11 4.74% 1.21% 117.0 2.56 198.6 15.3% 11.3% Dec-12F 42% 38% 46.1% (0.56) 0.59 9.16 5.90% 1.01% 98.8 0.00 129.0 15.9% 8.2% Dec-13F 129% 125% 45.4% (0.71) 0.72 30.63 6.00% 0.55% 86.2 0.00 92.7 10.9% 10.5% Dec-14F 34% 40% 47.7% (0.65) 0.92 44.29 6.00% 0.40% 104.9 0.00 117.7 12.4% 13.0%
Key Drivers
Outstanding Orderbook (US$m) Order Book Wins (US$m) Orderbook Depletion (US$m) Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$) No. Of Ships (unit) Average Utilisation Rate (%) Dec-11A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10,007.4 12,490.3 29 37 N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A 27,260.5 40 N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A 35,728.3 41 N/A
81
Ezra Holdings
EZRA SP / EZRA.SI Current S$1.04 S$1.55 S$1.55 48.7%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$832.5m
S$1,017m
US$6.89m
S$8.46m
64.0%
973.5 m shares
1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 200 150 100 50
Nov-11
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Aug-11A 559 88.0 39.2 0.05 (49.3%) 19.14 0.012 1.45% 19.28 NA 99% 0.87 5.45% Aug-12A 984 32.7 70.7 0.04 (12.6%) 21.48 0.024 2.78% 64.11 NA 110% 0.82 4.35% Aug-13F 1,363 182.1 79.9 0.08 87.5% 11.40 0.016 1.93% 11.47 NA 90% 0.70 7.27% 0% 1.11 Aug-14F 1,510 214.9 98.3 0.10 23.0% 9.26 0.020 2.37% 10.44 NA 95% 0.65 7.98% 0% 0.94 Aug-15F 1,741 252.2 117.0 0.12 19.0% 7.78 0.024 2.82% 9.42 10.26 98% 0.61 8.88% 0% 0.80
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.55
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Ezra Holdings
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Aug-12A 133 439 89 391 1,053 1,167 0 0 510 1,677 606 120 299 1,026 638 58 696 0 1,722 1,008 (0) 1,008 Aug-13F 188 560 123 307 1,178 1,321 0 0 634 1,955 620 148 481 1,249 638 53 692 0 1,941 1,192 (0) 1,192 Aug-14F 58 620 136 309 1,124 1,370 0 0 786 2,156 620 163 528 1,311 650 48 698 0 2,009 1,271 (0) 1,271 Aug-15F 67 716 157 307 1,247 1,392 0 0 965 2,357 750 186 601 1,537 650 53 703 0 2,240 1,365 (0) 1,364
71 40 40
80 80 80
98 98 98
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Aug-12A 32.7 (97.0) 139.3 (92.2) 0.0 (2.4) (19.6) (289.1) 0.0 (22.8) 0.0 (311.9) 288.1 95.2 0.0 0.0 (34.6) 348.7 Aug-13F 182.1 47.8 1.1 90.9 0.0 (19.4) 302.5 (200.0) 0.0 (124.3) 0.0 (324.3) 14.0 0.0 0.0 (16.0) 78.0 76.0 Aug-14F 214.9 (20.6) 3.2 (5.2) 0.0 (14.1) 178.2 (100.0) 0.0 (151.3) 0.0 (251.3) 11.8 0.0 0.0 (19.7) (48.6) (56.5) Aug-15F 252.2 (32.7) 11.3 4.8 0.0 (17.4) 218.2 (80.0) 0.0 (179.3) 0.0 (259.3) 130.0 0.0 0.0 (23.4) (56.3) 50.3
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Aug-12A 76.0% (63%) 3.3% (1.14) 1.04 2.43 23.4% 70.2% 137.8 33.30 43.92 3.78% 4.01% Aug-13F 38.5% 458% 13.4% (1.10) 1.22 2.79 15.0% 20.0% 133.8 35.85 45.31 4.86% 5.58% Aug-14F 10.8% 18% 14.2% (1.25) 1.31 2.94 15.0% 20.0% 142.7 39.92 47.75 5.54% 6.35% Aug-15F 15.3% 17% 14.5% (1.37) 1.40 3.02 15.0% 20.0% 140.0 39.57 46.90 5.99% 7.04%
Key Drivers
Outstanding Orderbook (US$m) Order Book Wins (US$m) Orderbook Depletion (US$m) Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$) No. Of Ships (unit) Average Utilisation Rate (%) Aug-12A Aug-13F Aug-14F Aug-15F 1,082.8 1,120.4 1,473.1 249.6 800.0 900.0 1,350.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 21,503.6 23,703.1 24,401.3 24,827.7 38 40 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A
83
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,330m
S$1,626m
US$1.56m
S$1.90m
38.0%
822.0 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Causeway strength
We expect a full-year contribution from a revamped Causeway Point and lease renewals at higher rates for this asset and NorthPoint to drive FCTs FY13 performance. Its FY12 performance surpassed expectations because of a stronger-than-expected performance from Causeway Point. With shopper traffic yet to return to pre-AEI level at Causeway Point and operating statistics like tenant sales and shopper traffic at its two largest malls bucking some peers downtrends, we remain optimistic about FCTs performance in FY13.
Maintain Outperform
We remain positive on FCT, backed by its resilient suburban retail exposure and strong execution capabilities exhibited by the Causeway Point AEI. We see catalysts in a stronger-than-expected performance for the revamped Causeway Point and the accretive acquisition of Changi City Point next year.
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Sep-11A 117.9 82.6 152.3 64.38 0.07 (11.7%) 27.23 0.08 4.21% 31.3% 1.40 1.41 5.38% Sep-12A 147.2 104.4 185.6 82.35 0.10 41.5% 19.24 0.10 5.07% 30.1% 1.53 1.29 6.99% Sep-13F 155.7 111.3 90.5 87.09 0.11 6.9% 18.00 0.11 5.34% 31.0% 1.53 1.29 7.15% 0% 1.02 Sep-14F 159.7 114.2 93.0 89.64 0.11 2.5% 17.56 0.11 5.48% 31.3% 1.53 1.29 7.33% 0% 1.05 Sep-15F 162.4 116.2 94.6 91.25 0.11 1.4% 17.31 0.11 5.57% 31.6% 1.53 1.29 7.44% 0% 0.98
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.98 2.02
Current
Target
2.18
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Sep-12A 1,888 0 0 1,888 23 0 0 6 29 40 58 15 112 519 23 542 1,263 0 1,263 Sep-13F 1,899 0 0 1,899 34 0 0 6 41 34 58 15 107 544 23 567 1,266 0 1,266 Sep-14F 1,910 0 1 1,910 37 0 0 6 44 35 58 15 108 554 23 577 1,270 0 1,270 Sep-15F 1,921 0 1 1,922 40 0 0 6 46 36 58 15 108 564 23 587 1,273 0 1,273
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Sep-12A 185.6 7.8 5.4 0.0 (110.9) 87.9 (19.0) (8.7) 0.0 (27.7) 183.0 (0.8) (78.4) (181.5) (77.6) (17.4) 60.2 226.7 Sep-13F 90.5 8.6 (5.8) 0.0 (8.3) 85.0 (10.9) 4.1 0.0 (6.8) 25.0 0.0 (87.1) (15.1) (77.2) 1.0 78.3 84.2 Sep-14F 93.0 8.9 0.9 0.0 (8.2) 94.5 (11.0) 4.1 0.0 (6.8) 10.0 0.0 (89.6) (15.5) (95.1) (7.4) 87.7 78.4 Sep-15F 94.6 9.2 0.6 0.0 (8.2) 96.2 (11.0) 4.1 0.0 (6.9) 10.0 0.0 (91.3) (15.8) (97.0) (7.7) 89.3 79.6
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Sep-12A 24.9% 26.4% 70.9% 20.3% 5.06 0% 44.4% 0.26 0.26 0.20 (182%) 10.0% Sep-13F 5.7% 6.6% 71.5% 5.4% 5.20 0% 96.3% 0.38 0.38 0.32 (206%) 4.7% Sep-14F 2.6% 2.6% 71.5% 2.7% 5.27 0% 96.4% 0.41 0.41 0.35 (243%) 4.8% Sep-15F 1.7% 1.7% 71.5% 1.5% 5.28 0% 96.5% 0.43 0.43 0.37 (244%) 4.8%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Sep-12A 12.9 N/A N/A 879 96.8% 1,816.0 N/A Sep-13F 12.8 N/A N/A 879 99.0% 1,826.9 N/A Sep-14F 13.0 N/A N/A 879 99.4% 1,837.9 N/A Sep-15F 13.3 N/A N/A 879 99.4% 1,848.9 N/A
85
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$653.3m
S$798.8m
US$1.03m
S$1.25m
75.0%
634.3 m shares
Executing well
Since taking over, management has executed well with the stabilisation of FCOTs capital structure, hiving off of non-core/ older assets such as KeyPoint and more recently, a clean exit out of the Japanese market. At 0.8x P/BV, FCOT looks set to continue rerating.
Our DPU estimates, DDM-target price (discount rate: 7.7%) and Outperform call are unchanged. We see catalysts from CPPU redemption and use of debt headroom for accretive AEIs, acquisitions or further CPPU redemption. FCOT should have S$198m left of the KeyPoint divestment proceeds. Management can, therefore, redeem 50% of its CPPU without gearing up, which should take the gearing position to about 31% eventually, which we have factored in. Upside could come from the potential debt headroom which could be used for accretive AEIs, acquisitions or further CPPU redemption. Pipeline assets from its sponsor include Alexandra Point and Valley Point, valued at S$230m and S$235m, respectively in F&Ns books.
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Executing well
Since taking over, management has been executing well with the stabilisation of FCOTs capital structure, hiving off of non-core/ older assets such as KeyPoint and more recently, a long-awaited clean exit out of the Japanese market. Management has also successfully filled 76% of the space left by Marsh & McLennan at China Square Central within one quarter of its departure, with GroupM signing a six-year lease from 1 Apr at S$7 psf. More positive rental reversions could follow when the remaining space is leased out given the low expiring rents of S$6+ psf and after its S$7.7m asset enhancement.
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates Sep-11A 119.6 96.0 46.1 36.32 0.058 4.66% 36.0% 1.38 0.89 1.69% Sep-12A 132.9 102.5 150.1 43.05 0.067 5.42% 31.9% 1.53 0.81 1.58% Sep-13F 117.8 91.2 38.7 51.78 0.079 6.37% 31.2% 1.50 0.82 3.42% 0% Sep-14F 124.2 97.0 40.1 57.59 0.086 6.95% 31.1% 1.48 0.84 4.05% 0% Sep-15F 127.4 99.3 42.4 59.93 0.088 7.10% 31.1% 1.45 0.85 4.28% 0%
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.24 1.25
Current
Target
1.37
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Sep-12A 1,758 0 0 1,758 459 0 10 113 582 65 0 124 189 747 71 818 990 0 343 1,332 Sep-13F 1,758 0 0 1,758 114 0 10 0 124 58 0 5 63 586 71 657 990 0 171 1,161 Sep-14F 1,758 0 0 1,758 117 0 10 0 127 61 0 5 67 586 71 657 990 0 171 1,161 Sep-15F 1,758 0 0 1,758 119 0 10 0 129 63 0 5 68 586 71 657 990 0 171 1,161
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Sep-12A 185.0 (29.2) 36.3 (0.5) (59.6) 132.0 (5.0) 240.1 0.7 235.7 110.7 0.0 (58.0) (27.4) 25.4 393.1 368.5 447.5 Sep-13F 48.3 29.1 (7.4) 0.0 6.4 76.3 0.0 113.5 0.7 114.2 (279.4) (171.3) (61.2) (23.2) (535.1) (344.6) 191.2 (122.2) Sep-14F 49.6 33.5 3.2 0.0 6.4 92.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 (67.0) (23.2) (90.2) 3.2 94.1 60.1 Sep-15F 51.9 33.6 1.6 0.0 6.4 93.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 (69.4) (23.2) (92.6) 1.6 94.9 60.9
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Sep-12A 11.1% 6.8% 77.2% 16.3% 1.97 8.65% 29% 3.08 3.08 2.42 (358%) 6.85% Sep-13F (11.4%) (11.1%) 77.4% 17.6% 2.26 0.27% 134% 1.96 1.96 1.80 (117%) 1.83% Sep-14F 5.5% 6.4% 78.1% 9.1% 2.44 0.27% 144% 1.91 1.91 1.76 (155%) 2.13% Sep-15F 2.6% 2.4% 78.0% 2.2% 2.51 0.26% 141% 1.89 1.89 1.75 (151%) 2.25%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Sep-12A 6.0 N/A N/A 2,658 95.8% 1,757.5 N/A Sep-13F 7.0 N/A N/A 2,456 94.1% 1,757.5 N/A Sep-14F 7.1 N/A N/A 2,456 96.0% 1,757.5 N/A Sep-15F 7.3 N/A N/A 2,456 96.0% 1,757.5 N/A
87
Gaming SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,448m
US$2,448m
US$1.31m
US$1.31m
20.0%
7,772 m shares
A big headstart
GENHK's headstart in the Manila landscape is unrivalled. Resorts
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 399.8 102.1 82.6 0.008 1085% 40.66 0% 15.97 58.87 17.6% 1.21 3.07% Dec-11A 515.5 141.1 182.2 0.021 168% 15.14 0% 10.42 11.19 8.7% 1.14 7.78% Dec-12F 529.3 130.1 162.3 0.021 0% 15.76 0% 10.40 28.10 5.6% 1.06 7.31% 0% 1.23 Dec-13F 589.2 151.5 197.7 0.025 22% 13.05 0% 7.25 23.10 2.1% 0.98 8.23% 0% 1.16 Dec-14F 657.3 169.5 228.4 0.029 16% 11.35 0% 4.76 20.08 (1.5%) 0.90 8.72% 0% 1.09
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
0.48
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 570 97 8 1 676 1,186 1,249 0 11 2,446 71 32 143 246 690 0 690 0 936 2,139 48 2,186 Dec-12F 629 97 8 1 735 1,148 1,393 0 11 2,551 114 32 143 289 647 0 647 0 936 2,303 48 2,350 Dec-13F 707 97 8 1 812 1,112 1,549 0 11 2,672 114 32 143 289 647 0 647 0 936 2,502 48 2,550 Dec-14F 804 97 8 1 910 1,078 1,719 0 11 2,808 114 32 143 289 647 0 647 0 936 2,733 48 2,781
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. Change In Working Capital (Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid)/Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 141.1 (46.0) Dec-12F 130.1 0.0 Dec-13F 151.5 0.0 Dec-14F 169.5 0.0
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 28.9% 38.2% 27.4% (0.025) 0.28 1.95 1.35% 0% 70.19 6.86 34.19 5.8% 2.63% Dec-12F 2.7% (7.8%) 24.6% (0.017) 0.30 1.59 5.00% 0% 66.64 6.93 28.66 5.5% 2.26% Dec-13F 11.3% 16.5% 25.7% (0.007) 0.32 2.18 5.00% 0% 59.70 6.30 26.06 7.9% 2.89% Dec-14F 11.6% 11.9% 25.8% 0.005 0.35 2.62 5.00% 0% 53.51 5.65 23.38 10.0% 3.32%
(29.8) 2.6 (2.3) 65.6 0.0 74.5 (8.3) 56.9 123.1 36.7 213.2 0.0 0.0 (13.8) 236.1
(32.7) 6.3 (8.6) 95.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(32.4) 7.0 (10.5) 115.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(32.3) 8.0 (12.1) 133.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Key Drivers
SC's Total Capacity Days SC's Occupancy Rate (%) SC:tkt. rev/pax cruise day (%chg) SC:onboard&gaming rev. (%chg) NCL's Total Capacity Days NCL's Occupancy Rate (%) NCL: tkt. rev/pax cruise day (%chg) VIP gross gaming rev (%chg) Mass mkt gross gaming rev (%chg) Slot gross gaming rev (%chg) Dec-11A 1,878,462 84.0% 7.0% 38.5% 9,455 108.2% 7.0% 64.6% 13.5% 24.9% Dec-12F 1,878,462 84.0% 4.0% 15.0% 9,833 108.0% 3.5% 14.8% 51.3% 10.0% Dec-13F 1,878,462 84.0% 4.0% 12.0% 10,193 108.0% 3.0% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% Dec-14F 1,878,462 84.0% 4.0% 12.0% 10,913 108.0% 3.0% -6.5% 23.4% 2.9%
89
Gaming SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Genting Singapore
GENS SP / GENS.SI Current S$1.22 S$1.20 S$1.20 -1.6%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$12,178m
S$14,899m
US$24.26m
S$29.81m
25.0%
12,193m shares
Price Close
110 104 97 91 84 78 71 65
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 2,753 1,422 657 0.063 na 19.33 0.00% 10.11 5.89 (3.4%) 2.91 16.3% Dec-11A 3,223 1,648 1,011 0.084 32.6% 14.58 0.010 0.82% 8.86 15.79 (4.4%) 2.43 18.1% Dec-12F 3,167 1,377 696 0.057 (31.8%) 21.37 0.010 0.82% 10.40 9.05 (31.3%) 1.63 9.1% (0.59%) 1.04 Dec-13F 3,415 1,522 794 0.065 14.1% 18.73 0.010 0.82% 8.76 10.97 (38.7%) 1.50 8.3% (1.14%) 1.02 Dec-14F 3,588 1,739 971 0.080 22.3% 15.32 0.010 0.82% 6.97 9.40 (46.3%) 1.37 9.3% (1.02%) 1.08
1.20
Current
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Genting Singapore
November 29, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 3,421 722 46 0 4,189 6,230 3 119 80 6,432 446 896 59 1,401 2,707 23 2,730 355 4,485 6,133 2 6,136 Dec-12F 5,852 607 43 0 6,502 6,657 3 119 80 6,859 423 824 59 1,307 2,571 23 2,594 355 4,256 9,129 2 9,132 Dec-13F 6,691 655 47 0 7,393 6,459 3 119 80 6,661 402 889 59 1,351 2,443 23 2,466 355 4,171 9,924 2 9,926 Dec-14F 7,753 688 49 0 8,490 6,251 3 119 80 6,453 382 934 59 1,376 2,321 23 2,344 355 4,074 10,894 2 10,897
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. Change In Working Capital (Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid)/Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 1,648 (370) Dec-12F 1,377 46 Dec-13F 1,522 14 Dec-14F 1,739 10
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 17% 16% 51.1% 0.02 0.50 13.87 17.9% 9.8% 74.52 11.37 236.3 21.4% 14.5% Dec-12F (2%) (16%) 43.5% 0.23 0.75 5.33 15.9% 14.7% 76.81 9.09 175.8 13.3% 9.2% Dec-13F 8% 11% 44.6% 0.32 0.81 5.47 16.0% 12.9% 67.47 8.70 165.2 14.1% 9.0% Dec-14F 5% 14% 48.5% 0.41 0.89 6.62 16.3% 10.5% 68.31 9.47 179.8 17.2% 10.1%
Key Drivers
VIP Chip Volume (% Change) VIP Chip Win Percentage (%) Mass mkt chip drop (% chg.) Mass mkt chip win (%-tage) Slot Handle (% Change) Slot Hold Percentage (%) Net Win Per Slot (% Change) Net Win Per Table (% Change) No. Of Slots No. Of Tables Dec-11A 43.4% 2.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 580 Dec-12F 4.5% 2.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 600 Dec-13F 12.4% 2.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 630 Dec-14F 6.3% 2.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 650
91
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$10,232m
S$12,511m
US$20.54m
S$25.25m
49.4%
4,596 m shares
On a higher gear
With the inclusion of Brazil, GLP now has multiple platforms for asset recycling growth. AUM will increase and looks set to balloon. The Brazil venture comes with higher execution and negative carry but also promises a projected IRR of 18-19% with rental step-ups for the stabilised portfolio. We believe that the investment could turn accretive earlier than expected. We do not expect this latest move to derail its China strategy. Landbank in reserves now amount to over 9m sm, potentially providing a powerful development pipeline. GLP has earmarked the JREIT proceeds largely for reinvestments in China.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 473.9 358.5 706.1 0.04 13.9% 53.76 0.00% 34.54 13.63 30.5% 1.49 4.49% Mar-12A 565.6 403.6 540.8 0.06 37.6% 39.07 0.030 1.39% 32.12 NA 30.8% 1.27 3.51% Mar-13F 727.2 523.3 579.4 0.09 59.1% 24.56 0.030 1.39% 26.51 NA 33.3% 1.18 5.07% 0% 1.17 Mar-14F 851.0 601.0 436.6 0.09 4.8% 23.43 0.030 1.39% 23.74 NA 36.1% 1.15 4.97% 0% 0.88 Mar-15F 909.7 631.3 489.2 0.10 12.0% 20.91 0.030 1.39% 23.06 19.27 33.6% 1.00 5.12% 0% 0.80
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
2.63 2.74
Current
Target
2.93
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Mar-12A 1,616 220 0 87 1,923 8 11,151 498 0 11,657 1,006 463 16 1,485 3,169 618 3,787 0 5,272 7,788 520 8 308 Mar-13F 1,543 282 0 87 1,912 8 12,727 490 0 13,225 1,014 498 20 1,532 3,594 795 4,389 0 5,921 8,639 577 9 216 Mar-14F 845 331 0 87 1,263 7 13,594 490 0 14,092 729 583 24 1,336 3,559 930 4,489 0 5,825 8,933 597 9 530 Mar-15F 1,237 353 0 87 1,678 7 15,214 490 0 15,711 293 623 25 942 4,594 994 5,588 0 6,529 10,179 680 10 860
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Mar-12A 404 (280) Mar-13F 523 (7) Mar-14F 601 40 Mar-15F 631 19
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Mar-12A 19.4% 12.6% 71.4% (0.56) 1.69 3.85 13.0% 59.9% 100.4 N/A N/A 875% 3.52% Mar-13F 28.6% 29.6% 72.0% (0.64) 1.82 4.51 11.6% 38.9% 126.0 N/A N/A 137% 4.00% Mar-14F 17.0% 14.8% 70.6% (0.72) 1.88 4.70 17.0% 32.7% 131.5 N/A N/A 142% 4.36% Mar-15F 6.9% 5.0% 69.4% (0.77) 2.14 5.31 17.0% 29.2% 137.2 N/A N/A 169% 4.26%
(234) 338 (104) (14) 110 (1,114) 0 0 (1) (1,115) 483 0 0 (138) 408 753
(142) 257 (115) (14) 502 (1,267) 0 0 (20) (1,287) 433 414 0 (143) 7 712
Valuation CHINA GAV of completed properties GDV of properties under development GDV of land for future development China Value Japan Value Brazil Value Asset management platform GAV ($US m ) Less: Est net debt (Incl future capex needs) RNAV ($US m) Fully-diluted share base RNAV per share ($US m ) Target price (USD) RNAV per share (S$) Target price (S$) Disc/Prem to RNAV 0% (m ) 3,596 1,476 1,296 6,394 7,483 843 706 15,425 (4,175) 11,250 4,756 2.37 2.37 2.93 2.93
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (US$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (US$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Mar-12A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 100.0% N/A 70.7% N/A Mar-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 100.0% N/A 71.3% N/A Mar-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 100.0% N/A 70.0% N/A Mar-15F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 100.0% N/A 68.8% N/A
93
Plantations SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Golden Agri-Resources
GGR SP / GAGR.SI Current S$0.64 S$0.80 S$0.85 26.0%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$6,663m
S$8,152m
US$40.26m
S$49.40m
50.0%
-86.04 m shares
Price Close 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 300 0.50 250 200 150 100 50
Nov-11 Mar-12 Source: Bloomberg Jun-12
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 3,505 676 1,422 0.032 69.6% 15.70 0.005 0.97% 10.14 303.4 10.2% 0.92 6.31% Dec-11A 5,953 955 1,268 0.047 47.6% 11.04 0.014 2.73% 7.44 34.6 8.8% 0.79 7.69% Dec-12F 5,897 764 430 0.034 (26.7%) 15.07 0.007 1.29% 9.61 206.8 9.1% 0.80 5.25% (2.5%) 0.84 Dec-13F 6,355 873 495 0.039 12.0% 13.45 0.008 1.49% 8.73 552.4 9.7% 0.76 5.78% (15.0%) 0.77 Dec-14F 7,037 1,031 594 0.046 20.0% 11.21 0.009 1.78% 7.34 36.2 8.5% 0.72 6.60% (6.7%) 0.91
Vol m
Sep-12
0.80
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Golden Agri-Resources
November 29, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 370 761 751 0 1,882 1,759 168 224 7,804 9,956 422 0 647 75 1,143 664 0 41 705 1,876 3,725 8,025 87 8,112 Dec-12F 315 873 744 0 1,932 2,145 170 224 7,804 10,343 422 0 732 75 1,229 664 0 41 705 1,876 3,810 8,369 96 8,465 Dec-13F 228 947 802 0 1,977 2,511 172 224 7,804 10,712 422 0 736 75 1,232 664 0 44 708 1,876 3,817 8,766 106 8,872 Dec-14F 293 997 888 0 2,178 2,857 174 224 7,804 11,060 422 0 793 75 1,289 664 0 48 713 1,876 3,878 9,241 118 9,360
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. Change In Working Capital (Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid)/Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 955 0 (115) 0 0 (13) (46) (142) 639 (446) 6 (57) (65) (561) 105 0 8 (79) (52) (19) Dec-12F 764 0 (20) 0 0 0 (65) (148) 531 (500) 0 0 0 (500) 0 0 0 (86) Dec-13F 873 0 (125) 0 0 0 (67) (169) 512 (500) 0 0 0 (500) 0 0 0 (99) Dec-14F 1,031 0 (74) 0 0 0 (71) (202) 684 (500) 0 0 0 (500) 0 0 0 (119)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 69.9% 41.2% 16.0% (0.059) 0.66 13.42 25.0% 47% 13.61 60.59 36.32 7.71% 8.46% Dec-12F (0.9%) (20.0%) 13.0% (0.060) 0.65 8.55 25.2% 20% 16.04 67.11 47.89 5.04% 5.87% Dec-13F 7.8% 14.2% 13.7% (0.067) 0.68 9.73 25.0% 20% 17.08 64.21 48.02 5.52% 6.43% Dec-14F 10.7% 18.1% 14.6% (0.062) 0.72 11.54 25.0% 20% 16.38 63.38 45.63 6.27% 7.31%
(86)
(99)
(119)
Key Drivers
Planted Estates (ha) Mature Estates (ha) FFB Yield (tonnes/ha) FFB Output Growth (%) CPO Price (US$/tonne) Dec-11A 361,060 306,827 20.9 12.1% 1,125 Dec-12F 372,060 326,330 21.5 9.7% 990 Dec-13F 384,060 338,619 22.5 8.6% 960 Dec-14F 399,060 349,965 23.0 5.6% 1,000
95
Logistics SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
Goodpack
GPACK SP / GPAK.SI Current S$1.86 S$2.10 S$2.10 13.0%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$809.1m
S$988.4m
US$0.28m
S$0.34m
58.0%
496.0 m shares
Valuations
Goodpacks mid-teens P/E does not make a very compelling investment thesis. Trading liquidity has been rather poor, cursed by large holdings by long funds lured by its longer-term potential. The lack of trading liquidity could also limit upside potential. Therefore, we maintain Neutral. The largest risk to our recommendation is a contract win for autoparts in the near term.
Price Close
Vol m
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.86 1.95
Current
|
Target
2.10
Jun-11A 158.6 72.1 43.22 0.09 24.9% 18.55 0.02 1.6% 11.95 17.9 20.4% 3.00 18.5%
Jun-12A 177.2 73.2 45.22 0.09 2.4% 17.68 0.03 2.1% 11.50 7.0 13.1% 2.67 16.9%
Jun-13F 204.6 88.5 54.77 0.11 21.1% 17.26 0.04 2.6% 11.12 101.7 7.9% 2.36 18.2% 0% 1.04
Jun-14F 233.3 103.9 68.21 0.14 24.5% 13.86 0.05 3.2% 9.09 17.3 (2.2%) 2.04 19.8% 0% 1.10
Jun-15F 263.4 120.0 81.37 0.16 19.3% 11.62 0.22 14.6% 7.40 12.9 (12.6%) 1.75 20.3% (0%) 1.09
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Goodpack
Balance Sheet
Jun-12A 177.2 93.9 73.2 (16.2) 57.0 (5.7) 0.0 2.9 54.2 0.0 54.2 (7.0) 47.2 (2.0) 0.0 Jun-13F 204.6 114.9 88.5 (16.8) 71.7 (7.9) 0.0 1.0 64.8 0.0 64.8 (8.3) 56.5 (1.7) 0.0 Jun-14F 233.3 134.6 103.9 (17.0) 86.9 (7.2) 0.0 1.0 80.7 0.0 80.7 (10.4) 70.3 (2.1) 0.0 Jun-15F 263.4 153.0 120.0 (17.2) 102.8 (7.5) 0.0 1.0 96.3 0.0 96.3 (12.4) 83.9 (2.5) 0.0 (US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Jun-12A 165.2 84.8 2.2 0.0 252.1 272.2 0.0 5.3 2.0 279.5 11.3 26.7 1.8 39.8 191.5 14.2 205.6 0.0 245.5 283.0 3.2 286.1
Jun-13F 149.8 91.3 2.2 7.6 251.0 285.4 0.0 5.0 2.0 292.4 83.1 27.5 1.8 112.5 92.5 14.2 106.6 0.0 219.1 319.4 4.9 324.3
Jun-14F 187.7 97.7 2.2 7.4 295.0 298.4 0.0 4.7 2.0 305.1 87.2 28.4 1.8 117.4 92.3 14.2 106.4 0.0 223.8 369.4 7.0 376.3
Jun-15F 244.0 104.0 2.2 7.2 357.4 311.2 0.0 4.4 2.0 317.6 91.3 29.3 1.8 122.3 97.0 14.2 111.1 0.0 233.5 432.1 9.5 441.6
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Jun-12A 73.2 (5.3) Jun-13F 88.5 (5.8) Jun-14F 103.9 (5.6) Jun-15F 120.0 (5.4) Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
0.0 (4.6) (5.9) 57.5 (26.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (26.0) 82.2 1.0 0.0 (11.5) (0.7) 71.1
0.0 (7.9) (8.3) 66.5 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (30.0) (27.2) 0.0 0.0 (17.7) 0.0 (44.9)
0.0 (7.2) (10.4) 80.7 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (30.0) 3.9 0.0 0.0 (10.6) 0.0 (6.7)
0.0 (7.5) (12.4) 94.6 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (30.0) 8.8 0.0 0.0 (10.6) 0.0 (1.9)
Jun-12A 11.7% 1.6% 41.3% (0.08) 0.57 10.06 12.9% 39.2% 118.7 11.06 60.86 14.8% 13.2%
Jun-13F 15.5% 20.8% 43.2% (0.05) 0.64 9.07 12.9% 19.4% 108.7 9.05 51.81 17.6% 14.5%
Jun-14F 14.0% 17.4% 44.5% 0.02 0.74 12.10 12.9% 15.6% 102.4 8.23 47.82 19.8% 16.5%
Jun-15F 12.9% 15.5% 45.6% 0.11 0.87 13.65 12.9% 17.4% 96.8 7.35 43.31 22.3% 17.3%
Key Drivers
(US$) Volumes Moved (% Change) Rates Charged (% Change) Acquisitions (m)
|
97
Hi-P International
HIP SP / HIPI.SI Current S$0.81 S$0.74 S$0.74 -8.6%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$580.1m
S$708.6m
US$1.12m
S$1.37m
16.2%
595.7 m shares
Renfred Tay
T (65) 62108692 E renfred.tay@cimb.com
Relook in 2Q13
Given its current lack of visibility, we believe the stock will continue to underperform the market. A better time to relook the stock would be in 2Q13 when there is more clarity on the progress of its new projects.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) Price To Sales (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 958 67.27 0.066 28% 12.23 0.72 0.036 4.44% 3.04 22.05 (37.9%) 1.19 9.85% Dec-11A 1,204 44.99 0.035 (48%) 23.37 0.56 0.024 2.96% 4.05 14.83 (37.1%) 1.12 4.94% Dec-12F 1,182 12.71 0.024 (31%) 33.94 0.57 0.007 0.84% 8.35 6.28 (1.2%) 1.17 3.38% 0% 0.91 Dec-13F 1,327 46.73 0.057 137% 14.31 0.50 0.025 3.08% 4.56 NA 15.1% 1.10 7.92% 0% 0.80 Dec-14F 1,445 52.74 0.064 13% 12.68 0.46 0.028 3.47% 4.11 7.01 2.7% 1.04 8.42% (0%) 0.70
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.81 1.08
Current
0.74
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Hi-P International
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 341 293 125 16 775 284 2 0 14 301 117 311 47 475 3 0 3 2 479 596 1 597 Dec-12F 408 333 133 60 934 470 2 0 16 488 201 379 69 648 201 0 201 2 851 569 1 570 Dec-13F 309 412 192 70 983 540 2 0 18 560 201 448 80 728 201 0 201 3 932 610 1 611 Dec-14F 384 433 206 74 1,097 495 2 0 19 516 201 481 84 766 201 0 201 3 970 643 0 643
45 29 29
13 20 20
47 47 47
53 53 53
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 111.1 0.0 (0.5) 10.4 0.0 3.4 (22.8) 101.5 (65.5) 1.2 0.0 8.2 (56.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (29.8) 103.9 74.1 Dec-12F 79.1 0.0 (22.2) 26.7 0.0 3.6 (6.0) 81.2 (265.0) 1.7 0.0 4.2 (259.1) 284.3 0.8 (1.1) (19.8) (3.7) 260.5 Dec-13F 166.5 0.0 (69.2) 9.7 0.0 1.3 (13.4) 94.9 (187.7) 0.0 0.0 (0.7) (188.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (5.6) 0.0 (5.6) Dec-14F 166.4 0.0 (2.0) 10.6 0.0 1.0 (15.4) 160.7 (65.0) 0.0 0.0 (0.3) (65.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (20.6) 0.0 (20.6)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 25.7% (28%) 9.2% 0.27 0.72 35.2 24.3% 44.1% 84.7 38.32 91.1 12.1% 8.7% Dec-12F (1.8%) (29%) 6.7% 0.01 0.69 1.8 21.2% 44.0% 97.0 43.26 116.0 1.6% 1.8% Dec-13F 12.3% 110% 12.5% (0.11) 0.74 9.7 22.4% 44.0% 102.4 49.58 126.3 7.2% 5.5% Dec-14F 8.9% (0%) 11.5% (0.02) 0.78 11.2 22.7% 44.0% 106.7 55.88 130.4 6.6% 6.0%
Key Drivers
ASP Change (%, Main Product) Unit sales growth (%, main prod) No. Of Lines (main Product) Rev per line (US$, main prod) ASP chg (%, 2ndary prod) Unit sales grth (%, 2ndary prod) No. Of Lines (secondary Product) Rev per line (US$, 2ndary prod) Dec-11A N/A 25.7% N/A 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A -1.8% N/A 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A 12.3% N/A 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A 8.9% N/A 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
99
Ho Bee Investments
HOBEE SP / HBEE.SI Current S$1.60 S$1.93 S$1.93 21.1%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$910.8m
S$1,114m
US$0.85m
S$1.05m
24.0%
737.3 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Maintain Outperform
The stock trades at >30% discount to book, compared to its long-term average of 0.9x P/BV. The discount gap is attractive on stronger book values next year. Proceeds from the divestment of Hotel Windsor could also be channelled into acquisitions.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 539.0 216.1 374.9 0.30 (45.1%) 5.40 0.050 3.14% 7.89 6.71 33.9% 0.80 16.3% Dec-11A 341.5 130.0 211.4 0.19 (36.1%) 8.46 0.050 3.14% 11.63 NA 19.0% 0.71 8.9% Dec-12F 430.5 116.0 153.7 0.19 1.4% 8.34 0.049 3.06% 15.87 NA 35.1% 0.63 8.1% 0% 1.11 Dec-13F 188.8 124.6 142.8 0.17 (10.8%) 9.35 0.050 3.13% 13.29 4.68 24.8% 0.59 6.5% 0% 1.17 Dec-14F 135.4 95.3 160.4 0.23 34.1% 6.97 0.050 3.13% 16.37 3.82 18.4% 0.55 8.2% 0% 1.04
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.60 1.60
Current
Target
1.93
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Ho Bee Investments
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 193 51 0 341 585 113 1,609 0 0 1,722 118 45 47 210 391 41 432 0 641 1,645 21 1,666 Dec-12F 89 41 0 750 880 125 1,752 0 0 1,877 169 71 71 311 561 62 622 0 933 1,771 53 1,824 Dec-13F 294 18 0 740 1,052 106 1,649 0 0 1,755 180 31 31 242 597 27 624 0 866 1,886 56 1,942 Dec-14F 553 13 0 758 1,324 96 1,657 0 0 1,753 217 22 22 261 718 19 738 0 999 2,018 60 2,078
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 130.0 518.4 Dec-12F 116.0 (349.0) Dec-13F 124.6 (46.0) Dec-14F 95.3 (30.4)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (36.6%) (39.8%) 38.1% (0.43) 2.23 51.03 10.8% 21.3% 53.49 N/A N/A 11.5% 6.1% Dec-12F 26.1% (10.7%) 27.0% (0.91) 2.53 32.58 10.2% 20.7% 39.36 N/A N/A 23.3% 5.3% Dec-13F (56.1%) 7.4% 66.0% (0.69) 2.69 18.46 10.2% 24.0% 57.41 N/A N/A 10.1% 3.7% Dec-14F (28.3%) (23.5%) 70.4% (0.54) 2.88 13.34 10.2% 17.5% 41.90 N/A N/A 7.5% 3.0%
73.1 (708.9) 0.0 (0.9) 11.7 (12.3) 0.0 (51.7) 0.0 (63.9) (241.4) 0.0 0.0 (29.5) 273.6 2.7
0.0 (0.6) (233.6) (12.0) 0.0 (15.1) 0.0 (27.1) 220.8 (32.5) 0.0 (28.0) (3.6) 156.8
0.0 (0.6) 78.0 (12.0) 125.7 0.0 0.0 113.7 47.2 0.0 0.0 (28.0) (5.1) 14.1
0.0 (0.7) 64.2 (12.0) 81.8 0.0 0.0 69.8 158.3 0.0 0.0 (28.0) (5.4) 124.8
RNAV Investment properties PV of residential GDV Other assets GAV Less: FY13F net debt (incl off b/s debt) RNAV Fully diluted no. of shares (m) RNAV per share (S$)
RNAV % of (S$m) GAV 1,288 47% 1,461 53% 18 1% 2,767 100% (732) 2,035 737 2.76 Discount to RNAV 30% 1.93
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.0% 92.6% N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.2% 93.8% N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.0% 87.7% N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 47.6% 52.4% N/A N/A
Target price
101
Hyflux
HYF SP / HYFL.SI Current S$1.28 S$1.41 S$1.41 10.6%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$861.8m
S$1,053m
US$0.84m
S$1.03m
30.0%
860.2 m shares
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 569.7 156.9 88.5 0.13 35.8% 10.15 0.042 3.27% 9.19 NA 73.3% 2.18 23.9% Dec-11A 482.0 109.5 53.0 0.05 (57.2%) 23.68 0.028 2.17% 11.68 2.04 18.0% 1.19 6.5% Dec-12F 683.1 125.6 58.3 0.07 22.0% 19.40 0.020 1.59% 10.44 8.23 19.8% 1.10 5.9% 0.000% 1.25 Dec-13F 772.2 156.2 105.0 0.12 85.8% 10.44 0.037 2.87% 9.07 6.72 26.4% 0.97 9.9% 0.000% 1.72 Dec-14F 708.1 119.6 70.7 0.08 (32.6%) 15.51 0.025 1.93% 12.10 38.09 26.6% 0.90 6.0% 0.000% 1.23
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.28 1.58
Current
Target
1.41
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Hyflux
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 662 231 24 182 1,099 189 0 199 546 933 118 228 10 356 712 28 741 0 1,097 921 15 936 Dec-12F 652 87 107 699 1,544 274 0 82 225 580 118 117 116 351 734 28 763 0 1,113 996 15 1,011 Dec-13F 627 273 41 559 1,500 669 0 86 257 1,013 118 273 131 522 813 28 841 0 1,363 1,133 16 1,149 Dec-14F 622 57 95 1,277 2,051 27 0 85 268 380 118 84 120 323 834 28 863 0 1,186 1,225 20 1,245
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 109.5 (141.0) Dec-12F 125.6 80.4 Dec-13F 156.2 26.0 Dec-14F 119.6 (21.0)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (15.4%) (30.2%) 22.7% (0.20) 1.07 3.23 10.2% 60.9% 156.6 35.43 307.5 7.9% 5.3% Dec-12F 41.7% 14.7% 18.4% (0.23) 1.16 3.11 12.0% 31.1% 85.2 56.61 148.8 7.4% 4.8% Dec-13F 13.0% 24.3% 20.2% (0.35) 1.32 4.99 12.0% 30.0% 85.0 53.85 141.5 11.5% 7.4% Dec-14F (8.3%) (23.4%) 16.9% (0.38) 1.42 3.48 12.0% 30.0% 85.0 53.85 141.5 7.1% 5.2%
0.0 352.5 (7.4) 313.7 0.0 (9.5) 0.0 1.3 (8.1) 231.2 1.5 0.0 (47.9) 0.0 184.8
0.0 (23.7) (7.9) 174.3 0.0 (46.8) 0.0 (16.0) (62.8) 21.8 0.0 0.0 (29.5) 0.0 (7.7)
0.0 (25.0) (14.6) 142.6 0.0 (40.9) 0.0 (17.0) (57.9) 78.5 0.0 0.0 (43.5) 0.0 35.0
0.0 (24.1) (10.2) 64.3 0.0 (39.4) 0.0 (18.0) (57.4) 21.8 0.0 0.0 (33.2) 0.0 (11.4)
Key Drivers
(S$m) Outstanding Orderbook Orderbook Depletion Orderbook Replenishment ASP/tariff (% chg, main prod/serv) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.) ASP/tariff (%chg, 2ndary prod/serv) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv) Non Revenue Water (NRW, %) Dec-11A 422.5 N/A 120.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F 683.1 N/A 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F 772.2 N/A 135.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F 708.1 N/A 136.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
103
Hospitals SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
IHH Healthcare
IHH SP / IHHH.SI Current S$1.26 S$1.53 S$1.53 21.9%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$8,276m
S$10,110m
US$1.53m
S$1.89m
30.5%
8,055 m shares
Destined to reign
We believe IHHs extensive footprint in a defensive sector is one of the best businesses around to buy into. IHH possesses steady growth, led by an unquenchable thirst for better healthcare even as global healthcare costs climb.
IHH has an extensive footprint in Asia and the CEEMENA region where we believe it has unparalleled dominance of the private healthcare market. In our opinion, this should sustain its profitability and status as a world premier private healthcare operator. IHHs ability to capture the huge demand for medical travel is a big plus, especially when its home markets are able to act as regional hubs for medical travel. Demographic changes like ageing populations are raising healthcare consumption, as are higher expectations on healthcare standards. Management has experience extracting synergies from the integration of Pantai with Parkway. We believe such experience, allied with IHHs growing scale and market leadership, will produce opportunities for raising service quality and wringing further cost synergies.
Capital-recycling angle
In addition, IHHs sponsorship of the Parkway Life REIT via a substantial stake provides opportunities not readily available to other healthcare players in the world. Further asset-recycling opportunities could emerge from its Malaysian assets in due course, with the freed capital redeployed to other growth frontiers.
Favourable themes
1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 Vol m 1.00 150 100 50
Jul-12
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (RMm) Operating EBITDA (RMm) Net Profit (RMm) Core EPS (RM) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (RM) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 4,507 965 226 0.05 0.0% 60.27 0% 22.96 27.73 172% 5.86 Dec-11A 5,191 1,006 158 0.03 (36.2%) 94.47 0% 20.19 NA 37% 1.74 2.85% Dec-12F 7,940 1,498 580 0.06 72.1% 54.90 0% 14.09 NA 5% 1.42 2.80% 0% 1.13 Dec-13F 8,120 1,850 866 0.11 88.7% 29.10 0% 13.42 10.44 2% 1.38 4.81% 0% 1.18 Dec-14F 9,626 2,181 1,062 0.13 22.6% 23.72 0% 11.17 8.79 (1%) 1.33 5.72% 0% 1.13
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
1.53
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
IHH Healthcare
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(RMm) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 1,311 518 79 1,170 3,078 4,727 890 8,106 554 14,277 47 1,576 162 1,785 4,991 0 4,991 470 7,247 9,862 247 10,108 Dec-12F 2,574 973 136 1,191 4,873 6,250 1,091 11,234 639 19,214 8 2,081 163 2,252 3,467 0 3,467 569 6,289 17,731 67 17,798 Dec-13F 3,041 1,146 152 1,191 5,530 6,508 1,094 11,234 639 19,475 8 2,293 163 2,465 3,467 0 3,467 569 6,501 18,251 253 18,503 Dec-14F 3,674 1,334 190 1,191 6,389 6,676 1,101 11,234 639 19,650 6 2,510 163 2,679 3,467 0 3,467 569 6,716 18,888 435 19,323
Cash Flow
(RMm) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 1,006 386 Dec-12F 1,498 (74) Dec-13F 1,850 22 Dec-14F 2,181 (9)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (RM) BVPS (RM) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 15.2% 4.3% 19.4% (0.68) 1.79 1.09 66.5% 0% 35.21 17.48 776.7 7.59% 5.34% Dec-12F 53.0% 48.9% 18.9% (0.11) 2.20 4.79 24.6% 0% 34.37 15.96 271.9 8.09% 5.95% Dec-13F 2.3% 23.5% 22.8% (0.05) 2.27 7.76 17.6% 0% 47.62 20.87 317.1 7.30% 6.19% Dec-14F 18.5% 17.9% 22.7% 0.02 2.34 9.36 20.2% 0% 47.02 20.95 293.8 8.69% 7.19%
(585) (120) 687 (2,365) 37 61 (2,267) (5,549) 7,806 (5) (348) 1,903
Key Drivers
No. Of Patient Admissions (m P.a.) Revenue Per Patient Bed (RM) Occupancy Rate Of Beds (%) Average Length Of Stay (days) Beds Opened (units) Bed Turnover A Year (x) % of fgn patients to patient load Dec-11A Dec-12F 51,037.0 62,399.5 7,500.1 7,596.0 64.4% 61.8% 3.3 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F 71,974.2 7,893.1 71.5% 3.2 N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F 76,231.5 8,175.8 67.1% 3.2 N/A N/A N/A
105
Plantations SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,442m
S$1,764m
US$2.87m
S$3.52m
31.1%
1,448 m shares
Attractive EV/ha
We continue to favour Indofood Agri due to its attractive asset valuations. Stripping out the value of its stake in London Sumatra and cash balances from the group's market capitalisation, we find the market is pricing an EV/ha of only US$8,914, which is below the recent transacted prices of c.US$10-15k for planted estates in Indonesia. This and share buy-back activities reaffirm its attractive asset valuations.
Price Close 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 15 1.0
Financial Summary
Revenue (Rpb) Operating EBITDA (Rpb) Net Profit (Rpb) Core EPS (Rp) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 9,484 3,138 1,402 828.7 10.7% 11.70 0.000% 7.23 13.27 25.3% 1.27 11.7% Dec-11A 12,605 3,841 1,490 993.5 19.9% 9.76 0.003 0.000% 5.90 4.98 0.0% 1.10 12.1% Dec-12F 12,131 3,139 1,063 734.3 (26.1%) 13.20 0.000% 7.86 NA 5.3% 1.01 8.0% (6.95%) 0.86 Dec-13F 14,033 3,708 1,238 854.9 16.4% 11.34 0.000% 6.63 20.65 0.9% 0.93 8.5% (5.22%) 0.77 Dec-14F 16,207 4,230 1,419 980.5 14.7% 9.89 0.000% 5.65 10.52 (5.7%) 0.85 9.0% 4.87% 0.83
Vol m
10 5
Nov-11 Mar-12 Source: Bloomberg Jun-12 Sep-12
1.51
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(Rpb) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 6,535 1,141 1,678 84 9,437 7,245 0 3,156 13,368 23,770 3,334 0 1,380 78 4,792 3,201 Dec-12F 2,617 1,098 1,614 81 5,409 8,715 0 3,156 13,752 25,623 3,334 0 1,438 78 4,849 518 Dec-13F 3,649 1,270 1,868 93 6,879 9,625 0 3,156 14,135 26,916 3,334 0 1,662 78 5,074 533 Dec-14F 5,477 1,466 2,157 108 9,208 10,535 0 3,156 14,135 27,826 3,334 0 1,872 78 5,283 533
Cash Flow
(Rpb) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 3,841 Dec-12F 3,139 Dec-13F 3,708 Dec-14F 4,230
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (Rp) BVPS (Rp) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
Dec-11A 32.9% 22.4% 30.5% (0) 8,854 7.53 25.7% 0.405% 30.13 68.37 59.01 14.5% 12.9% Dec-12F (3.8%) (18.3%) 25.9% (854) 9,588 6.42 24.0% 0.000% 33.76 78.21 66.94 10.3% 9.7% Dec-13F 15.7% 18.1% 26.4% (151) 10,443 7.32 24.0% 0.000% 30.79 71.31 63.48 11.6% 11.1% Dec-14F 15.5% 14.1% 26.1% 1,112 11,424 8.55 25.0% 0.000% 30.81 71.37 62.67 12.8% 11.8%
(279)
167
(213)
(291)
337 (231) (899) 2,768 (1,770) 9 0 (212) (1,972) 2,020 0 (81) 0 0 0 1,939
Key Drivers
Planted Estates (ha) Mature Estates (ha) FFB Yield (tonnes/ha) FFB Output Growth (%) CPO Price (US$/tonne)
Dec-11A 239,022 180,348 17.7 9.0% 1,125 Dec-12F 250,683 184,400 16.4 6.2% 990 Dec-13F 263,683 193,400 16.6 5.0% 960 Dec-14F 275,684 218,548 17.0 5.8% 1,000
107
Conglomerate SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
Keppel Corporation
KEP SP / KPLM.SI Current S$10.63 S$13.20 S$13.20 24.2%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$15,639m
S$19,104m
US$34.80m
S$42.72m
60.0%
1,796 m shares
Preferred yard
Keppel Corp is diversifying amid stiff competition in the rigbuilding industry. We expect future orders to be dominated by new designs, including the conversion of FLNG, ice-class jack-ups and drillships.
Maintain Outperform and target price, still based on RNAV. Keppel is a laggard in Singapores Capital Goods segment with outperformance of 11% vs. a 24% average for its peers. Catalysts could be margin expansion from the backend-loading of profits from 19 jack-up rigs to be delivered in 2013. drillships through the application of slim-hole drilling technologies for the exploration and development of subsea wells and well interventions.
Preferred yard
Keppel is our preferred yard in Singapore because of: 1) its better strategy in this rig cycle, taking on calculated risks in bidding for jack-up rigs in 2010-11 and hence dominating about 45% of the market; 2) its scalable overseas yards, which may benefit from any nationalist sentiment for local content among oil companies; 3) lower execution slippage risks for Brazilian orders thanks to its 12 years of operation in the country; and 4) valuations, below its 10-year average of 12x vs. SMMs 16x.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 9,140 2,202 1,511 0.74 (0.1%) 14.29 0.38 3.62% 9.70 8.9 (1.9%) 2.93 21.1% Dec-11A 10,082 2,892 1,841 0.84 13.1% 12.60 0.43 4.06% 8.44 NA 16.6% 2.57 21.6% Dec-12F 13,400 2,751 1,982 1.11 32.3% 9.54 0.50 4.70% 9.07 442.2 14.5% 2.24 25.0% 0% 1.03 Dec-13F 14,801 2,344 1,636 0.92 (17.5%) 11.59 0.41 3.88% 10.74 28.6 11.7% 2.02 18.3% 0% 1.06 Dec-14F 15,469 2,350 1,642 0.92 0.3% 11.55 0.41 3.90% 10.76 43.2 8.8% 1.84 16.7% 0% 1.03
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
13.20
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Keppel Corporation
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 3,020 2,028 6,219 981 12,249 2,716 0 99 9,420 12,234 808 5,323 2,484 8,616 4,069 607 4,675 0 13,292 7,390 3,801 11,191 Dec-12F 2,331 2,680 8,040 1,200 14,251 3,385 0 99 9,814 13,297 600 6,700 3,478 10,778 3,569 508 4,077 0 14,856 8,481 4,212 12,693 Dec-13F 2,138 2,960 8,881 1,355 15,334 4,044 0 99 10,046 14,188 704 7,400 3,817 11,921 3,069 558 3,626 0 15,548 9,381 4,594 13,974 Dec-14F 1,879 3,094 9,281 1,393 15,647 4,692 0 99 10,285 15,075 652 7,734 3,970 12,356 2,569 533 3,102 0 15,458 10,284 4,980 15,264
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 2,892 (2,050) Dec-12F 2,751 (304) Dec-13F 2,344 (241) Dec-14F 2,350 (89)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 10.3% 31.3% 28.7% (1.04) 4.14 27.38 19.3% 51.4% 72.17 295.6 281.2 28.2% 19.0% Dec-12F 32.9% (4.9%) 20.5% (1.03) 4.75 20.77 14.3% 45.0% 64.29 313.0 263.9 18.6% 16.3% Dec-13F 10.5% (14.8%) 15.8% (0.92) 5.26 16.54 16.6% 45.0% 69.55 335.3 279.4 14.1% 13.1% Dec-14F 4.5% 0.2% 15.2% (0.75) 5.77 15.71 16.8% 45.0% 71.42 344.4 287.0 13.1% 12.5%
(742) 0 (343) (243) (876) 0 (558) 176 (1,258) 809 99 0 (882) 248 275
Key Drivers
Rev. growth (%, main biz.) EBITDA mgns (%, main biz.) Rev. as % of total (main biz.) EBITDA as % of total (main biz.) Rev. growth (%, 2ndary biz.) EBITDA mgns (%, 2ndary biz.) Rev. as % of total (2ndary biz.) EBITDA as % of total (2ndary biz.) Rev. growth (%, tertiary biz.) EBITDA mgns (%, tertiary biz.) Rev.as % of total (tertiary biz.) EBITDA as % of total (tertiary biz.) Dec-11A -18.5% 27.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F 50.1% 17.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F 23.5% 17.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F -0.4% 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
109
Keppel Land
KPLD SP / KLAN.SI Current S$3.47 S$4.00 S$4.00 15.3%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$4,383m
S$5,359m
US$5.04m
S$6.16m
52.7%
1,449 m shares
Worth a relook
We turn more constructive on KepLand on two fronts: 1) potential turnaround in Chinas home sales, and 2) possible recycling of MBFC 2 in 2013, forming the short-term stock catalyst. Its ability to redeploy capital into accretive assets will dictate its longer-term share price.
No change to estimates and RNAV target price (20% discount to RNAV). Maintain Outperform. The stock trades at 30% discount to our RNAV.
1M 2.7 1.2 3M 2.3 1.2 12M 30.1 44 % held 52.7
Development of the MBFC Tower 3 is complete and 76% committed as at 3Q12. We believe it has moved up to over 80% since. We note that this is the occupancy level which OFC was injected into Keppel REIT previously. With Keppel REIT yields compressed and interest rates expected to remain very low, we believe the macro environment in FY13 will be conducive to an asset injection. We estimate divestment gains from this move to be around 7-8% of KepLands RNAV or 40-50Scts per share. The past two asset injections into the REIT were followed by special dividend payouts.
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 685 274.7 1,046 0.21 34.5% 16.26 0.18 5.19% 22.60 15.71 20.2% 1.20 8.22% Dec-11A 889 246.9 290 0.18 (15.9%) 19.33 0.08 2.33% 21.91 14.24 1.6% 1.15 6.07% Dec-12F 944 221.5 479 0.31 75.0% 11.05 0.10 2.95% 30.88 NA 23.5% 0.90 9.11% 0% 1.20 Dec-13F 1,364 345.7 406 0.27 (13.2%) 12.72 0.09 2.59% 18.52 13.80 14.2% 0.86 6.89% 0% 1.05 Dec-14F 1,870 435.2 427 0.29 5.1% 12.10 0.09 2.73% 13.11 9.65 2.9% 0.82 6.91% 0% 0.94
Aug-12
3.47 3.60
Current
Target
4.00
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Keppel Land
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 1,330 292 4 2,896 4,523 216 1,044 0 1,373 2,633 177 853 220 1,250 1,227 0 1,227 0 2,477 4,373 306 4 679 Dec-12F 1,003 517 4 3,797 5,321 217 2,557 0 1,433 4,206 193 905 116 1,214 2,237 0 2,237 0 3,452 5,762 313 6 075 Dec-13F 1,321 654 5 3,371 5,352 230 2,659 0 1,433 4,322 177 934 150 1,261 2,050 0 2,050 0 3,311 6,035 328 6 363 Dec-14F 1,805 615 7 2,868 5,296 243 2,640 0 1,433 4,316 159 768 179 1,106 1,841 0 1,841 0 2,947 6,321 343 6 664
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 247 Dec-12F 221 Dec-13F 346 Dec-14F 435
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
Dec-11A 29.8% (10.1%) 27.8% (0.05) 3.02 4.74 14.7% 45.0% 180.4 2.23 520.1 6.6% 4.21% Dec-12F 6.2% (10.3%) 23.5% (0.96) 3.87 4.19 14.1% 33.0% 156.9 2.23 494.4 4.9% 3.53% Dec-13F 44.5% 56.1% 25.3% (0.61) 4.05 9.23 14.5% 33.0% 156.7 1.76 357.1 5.8% 4.64% Dec-14F 37.0% 25.9% 23.3% (0.13) 4.24 12.74 14.5% 33.0% 123.8 1.80 241.1 7.9% 5.63%
(481)
(545)
350
404
(134) (80) (50) (66) (564) (9) 2,040 0 0 2,030 (1,113) 0 0 (117) (513) (1,743)
(348) 436 (51) (102) (389) (13) (267) 0 0 (280) (107) 0 0 (152) (11) (271)
(138) 194 (36) (84) 632 (13) (41) 0 0 (54) (203) 0 0 (134) 78 (259)
(75) 128 (33) (89) 770 (13) 6 0 0 (7) (228) 0 0 (141) 89 (279)
RNAV SIN Office SIN Residential China Vietnam Others Asset management platform GAV Less: Net debt + Viet and office capex RNAV Shares (m) RNAV per share (S$) Target price (S$) Disc -20%
RNAV (S$m) 2,862 1,375 2,595 739 1,038 739 9,347 (1,906) 7,441 1,490 4.99 4.00
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%)
Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 74.9% 16.6% N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 77.0% 13.8% N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 83.9% 9.4% N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 88.0% 6.8% N/A
111
REIT SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
Keppel REIT
KREIT SP / KASA.SI Current S$1.22 S$1.26 S$1.26 3.0%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,624m
S$3,210m
US$1.01m
S$1.24m
23.1%
2,548 m shares
Holding up well
K-REITs portfolio has held up amid headwinds in the office sector. Yields are compelling but we see this as compensation for the high asset leverage and limited accretion expected from the acquisition of MBFC Phase 2 due to the likely need for a cash call.
We maintain our DPUs, DDM-based target price (discount rate: 7.7%) and Neutral stance. We would turn more positive on more clarity of an accretive acquisition of MBFC Phase 2. should be mitigated by increasing Australian contributions.
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Holding up well
Unlike consensus, we remain positive on an earlier bottoming of the office sector, particularly with the pace of vacancy increase and rental declines moderating in 3Q12. We expect the drivers to be take-ups by non-financials and support from good backfilling, sub-peak rents and the removal of older stock to alleviate supply pressure. K-REITs portfolio has held up well despite office headwinds in FY12 due to incremental take-ups each quarter and fairly stable signing rents (with no additional rent-frees). With high occupancy of 98.2%, limited lease expiries of 7% by NLA for FY13 and underpinned by the long WALE of 7.5 years, we continue to expect a stable performance for FY13. Lower GST rebate from ORQ in FY13
Maintain Neutral
Forward yields are compelling but we see this as compensation for its higher asset leverage. This should warrant equity-raising for further purchases, which could, in turn, limit accretion. We remain Neutral.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 84.6 67.3 109.2 85.6 0.040 59.2% 30.73 0.064 5.21% 31.8% 1.52 0.80 2.63% Dec-11A 78.0 61.7 290.1 113.0 0.047 18.6% 35.60 0.071 5.80% 37.0% 1.28 0.95 2.52% Dec-12F 169.3 130.4 120.5 201.1 0.047 (1.1%) 26.19 0.078 6.38% 40.7% 1.27 0.96 3.65% 0% 0.86 Dec-13F 183.1 140.9 140.3 201.5 0.053 14.4% 22.89 0.077 6.27% 42.5% 1.26 0.97 4.20% 0% 0.94 Dec-14F 189.4 145.7 156.0 206.7 0.058 9.0% 21.00 0.077 6.31% 41.9% 1.25 0.97 4.62% 0% 1.00
Vol m
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.22 1.25
Current
Target
1.26
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Keppel REIT
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Dec-11A 5,585 138 12 5,735 86 0 31 6 122 141 510 9 661 1,656 65 1,721 3,263 213 3,475 Dec-12F 5,686 80 12 5,778 104 0 31 5 140 97 510 9 617 1,900 65 1,965 3,337 0 3,337 Dec-13F 5,877 42 12 5,931 150 0 31 5 186 105 510 9 625 2,090 65 2,155 3,337 0 3,337 Dec-14F 5,961 14 12 5,988 182 0 31 5 217 109 510 9 628 2,090 65 2,155 3,421 0 3,421
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Dec-11A 302 5 (49) (4) (215) 39 (1) (1,727) 107 (1,622) 765 986 (96) (34) 1,620 37 (1,583) (845) Dec-12F 139 28 (44) (14) 25 134 0 (314) 155 (159) 244 70 (201) (70) 43 19 (25) 171 Dec-13F 154 (6) 8 (14) 36 179 0 (190) 136 (55) 190 0 (201) (67) (78) 46 124 260 Dec-14F 169 (29) 4 (13) 44 174 0 (84) 128 44 0 84 (207) (64) (186) 32 218 163
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets
Dec-11A (8%) (8%) 79.1% 11.3% (0.09) 2.1% 39% 0.18 0.18 0.13 52% 6.47% Dec-12F 117% 111% 77.0% 9.9% 0.56 10.4% 167% 0.23 0.23 0.17 67% 2.05% Dec-13F 8% 8% 76.9% (1.6%) 1.04 9.1% 144% 0.30 0.30 0.24 249% 2.33% Dec-14F 3% 3% 76.9% 0.5% 1.32 7.9% 133% 0.35 0.35 0.29 (266%) 2.53%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$)
Dec-11A 7.8 N/A N/A 2,861 95.2% N/A N/A Dec-12F 8.0 N/A N/A 2,861 98.1% N/A N/A Dec-13F 8.3 N/A N/A 3,027 99.0% N/A N/A Dec-14F 8.6 N/A N/A 3,027 99.3% N/A N/A
113
Logistics SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
Keppel T&T
KPTT SP / KTEL.SI Current S$1.30 S$1.29 S$1.29 -0.6%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$586.3m
S$716.3m
US$0.37m
S$0.46m
13.6%
552.6 m shares
major projects in China. It is expecting the completion of its Tianjin Ecocity distribution centre sometime in 2H13 or early-2014. It also commenced work on its Jilin Logistics Park development in Oct 2012. The first phase of the development, spanning 40 hectares, is expected to be operational by 2014. In addition, KPTT is collaborating with state-owned logistics behemoth SinoTrans to develop a river port along the Yangtze.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.30 1.43
Current
|
Target
1.29
Dec-10A 107.8 19.69 57.60 0.10 30.9% 12.56 0.035 2.70% 27.11 81.53 32.7% 2.09 17.9%
Dec-11A 118.1 34.04 79.43 0.15 40.9% 8.92 0.033 2.56% 18.34 17.62 56.4% 1.81 21.8%
Dec-12F 136.6 41.37 56.87 0.10 (29.2%) 12.60 0.033 2.54% 15.83 26.25 64.5% 1.65 13.7% 0% 0.98
Dec-13F 147.4 58.03 63.68 0.12 12.0% 11.25 0.037 2.85% 11.07 21.24 62.6% 1.50 14.0% (0%) 0.92
Dec-14F 184.6 66.74 68.02 0.12 6.8% 10.53 0.039 3.04% 10.61 12.32 69.2% 1.37 13.6% 0% 1.03
Vol m
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Keppel T&T
Balance Sheet
Dec-11A 118.1 93.9 34.0 (13.4) 20.6 (2.7) 59.3 0.0 77.2 22.8 100.0 (12.3) 87.7 (8.3) 0.0 Dec-12F 136.6 111.2 41.4 (16.9) 24.5 (4.6) 53.6 0.0 73.4 0.0 73.4 (10.6) 62.8 (6.0) 0.0 Dec-13F 147.4 120.7 58.0 (24.6) 33.5 (6.5) 54.7 0.0 81.7 0.0 81.7 (11.3) 70.4 (6.7) 0.0 Dec-14F 184.6 156.6 66.7 (25.6) 41.1 (7.2) 55.2 0.0 89.1 0.0 89.1 (13.9) 75.2 (7.1) 0.0 (S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Dec-11A 65.6 35.8 0.5 3.4 105.3 311.3 355.2 0.0 0.0 666.5 47.1
Dec-12F 68.7 37.4 1.9 3.4 111.4 379.4 393.4 0.0 0.0 772.8 57.2
Dec-13F 75.3 40.4 2.0 3.4 121.1 409.3 434.9 0.0 0.0 844.2 61.6
Dec-14F 104.6 50.6 2.1 3.4 160.6 512.8 447.8 0.0 0.0 960.5 76.9
40.5 1.2 88.9 255.7 0.0 255.7 6.9 351.4 395.1 25.3 420.4
42.3 1.2 100.7 311.6 0.0 311.6 6.9 419.2 433.7 31.3 465.1
44.4 1.2 107.2 336.2 0.0 336.2 6.9 450.2 477.0 38.0 515.0
46.6 1.2 124.7 421.1 0.0 421.1 6.9 552.7 523.3 45.1 568.4
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Dec-11A 34.0 Dec-12F 41.4 Dec-13F 58.0 Dec-14F 66.7
(3.6) (2.2) 4.8 (2.8) (2.7) 27.5 (82.3) 1.7 33.4 4.6 (42.6) 55.7 0.2 0.0 (21.9) 3.0 37.0
(1.2) 1.4 0.0 (4.6) (10.6) 26.4 (68.1) 0.0 0.0 3.0 (65.1) 66.0 0.0 0.0 (24.2) 0.0 41.8
(0.9) 2.1 0.0 (6.5) (11.3) 41.4 (29.9) 0.0 0.0 (6.8) (36.7) 29.0 0.0 0.0 (27.1) 0.0 1.9
(8.1) 3.2 0.0 (7.2) (13.9) 40.8 (103.5) 0.0 0.0 20.6 (82.9) 100.3 0.0 0.0 (28.9) 0.0 71.4
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
Dec-11A 9.6% 72.9% 28.8% (0.43) 0.71 6.05 12.3% 32.4% 93.98 20.78 608.3 11.8% 3.33%
Dec-12F 15.6% 21.5% 30.3% (0.54) 0.78 4.48 14.4% 32.0% 98.14 16.85 596.9 6.6% 3.22%
Dec-13F 7.9% 40.3% 39.4% (0.58) 0.86 4.54 13.9% 32.0% 96.35 26.36 593.5 7.3% 3.90%
Dec-14F 25.3% 15.0% 36.2% (0.71) 0.95 4.95 15.6% 32.0% 89.91 26.36 593.5 8.3% 4.24%
Key Drivers
(S$) Volumes Moved (% Change) Rates Charged (% Change) Acquisitions (m)
|
115
M1 Limited
M1 SP / MONE.SI Current S$2.70 S$2.96 S$2.96 9.6%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,018m
S$2,465m
US$2.17m
S$2.67m
39.2%
905.8 m shares
106 103 99 96 93 89 86
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Operating EBITDA Margin Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
2.70 2.80
Current
|
Target
2.96
Dec-10A 979 310.9 31.8% 157.1 0.17 7.56% 15.42 0.18 6.48% 8.78 21.26 101% 56.2%
Dec-11A 1,065 308.6 29.0% 164.1 0.18 3.56% 14.85 0.14 5.32% 8.84 16.39 90% 52.5%
Dec-12F 1,089 298.9 27.5% 152.8 0.17 (7.44%) 16.05 0.13 4.97% 9.00 13.13 68% 45.5% 0% 1.00
Dec-13F 1,132 318.4 28.1% 166.6 0.18 9.06% 14.76 0.15 5.42% 8.51 20.50 64% 45.2% 0% 0.99
Dec-14F 1,153 331.8 28.8% 171.9 0.19 3.16% 14.31 0.15 5.59% 8.00 12.61 45% 42.3% 0% 0.97
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
M1 Limited
Balance Sheet
Dec-11A 1,065 611 309 (107) 202 (4) 0 0 197 0 197 (33) 0 164 0 0 Dec-12F 1,089 615 299 (110) 189 (5) 0 0 184 0 184 (31) 0 153 0 0 Dec-13F 1,132 644 318 (113) 205 (5) 0 0 201 0 201 (34) 0 167 0 0 Dec-14F 1,153 660 332 (120) 212 (5) 0 0 207 0 207 (35) 0 172 0 0 (S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Dec-11A 11.8 187.7 36.3 24.9 260.7 606.8 0.0 110.5 0.6 717.9 53.3
Dec-12F 67.0 164.0 26.8 24.9 282.8 619.1 0.0 110.5 0.6 730.2 53.3
Dec-13F 55.5 170.6 21.7 24.9 272.6 625.9 0.0 160.5 0.6 787.0 53.3
Dec-14F 110.9 158.0 15.8 24.9 309.6 628.1 0.0 160.5 0.6 789.2 53.3
229.8 27.6 310.7 250.0 95.3 345.3 0.0 656.0 322.6 0.0 322.6
238.0 27.6 318.9 250.0 95.3 345.3 0.0 664.2 348.8 0.0 348.8
245.1 27.6 326.0 250.0 95.3 345.3 0.0 671.3 388.2 0.0 388.2
247.5 27.6 328.4 250.0 95.3 345.3 0.0 673.7 424.9 0.0 424.9
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Dec-11A 308.6 Dec-12F 298.9 Dec-13F 318.4 Dec-14F 331.8
1.0 4.2 10.8 (4.2) (34.9) 285.5 (102.5) 0.0 (21.7) 0.1 (124.1) (12.7) 0.0 0.0 (161.3) 15.7 (158.3)
41.3 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (31.3) 308.9 (122.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (122.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (126.6) (5.0) (131.6)
5.8 4.5 0.0 (4.5) (34.1) 290.1 (120.0) 0.0 (50.0) 0.0 (170.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (127.2) (4.5) (131.7)
20.9 4.5 0.0 (4.5) (35.2) 317.5 (122.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (122.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (135.2) (4.5) (139.7)
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
Dec-11A 8.8% (0.74%) 29.0% (0.32) 0.36 33.60 16.9% 65.1% 62.71 24.01 169.4 23.9% 32.7%
Dec-12F 2.2% (3.15%) 27.5% (0.26) 0.38 31.52 17.0% 65.6% 59.13 24.39 180.7 21.9% 29.8%
Dec-13F 4.0% 6.54% 28.1% (0.27) 0.43 37.32 17.0% 65.6% 53.95 18.15 180.7 24.7% 30.7%
Dec-14F 1.9% 4.20% 28.8% (0.21) 0.47 38.48 17.0% 65.6% 51.99 13.89 182.4 23.7% 30.0%
Key Drivers
Group Mobile Subscribers (m) Group Fixed Voice Subscribers (m) Grp fixed brdband subscribers (m) Group Pay TV Subs (m) Group Mobile ARPU (US$/mth) Grp fixed voice ARPU (US$/mth) Grp fixed brdband ARPU (US$/mth) Group Pay TV ARPU (US$/mth)
|
117
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,852m
S$2,264m
US$2.20m
S$2.69m
80.7%
1,863 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 166.5 114.4 219.2 75.8 0.041 (3.1%) 29.68 0.041 3.37% 39.6% 0.89 1.35 4.68% Mar-12A 177.3 124.0 208.0 98.2 0.048 18.8% 24.99 0.053 4.36% 37.5% 0.96 1.27 5.24% Mar-13F 215.6 150.7 111.8 118.5 0.060 23.6% 20.22 0.063 5.23% 37.5% 0.95 1.27 6.28% 0% 1.01 Mar-14F 224.8 157.1 115.7 122.5 0.062 3.1% 19.61 0.065 5.39% 37.5% 0.95 1.28 6.50% 0% 1.03 Mar-15F 230.8 161.2 119.7 126.6 0.064 3.2% 19.00 0.067 5.57% 37.5% 0.95 1.28 6.72% 0% 1.06
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.21 1.27
Current
Target
1.39
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Mar-12A 2,945 0 0 2,945 50 0 5 0 55 59 0 5 64 1,126 19 1,144 1,780 0 1,780 Mar-13F 2,952 0 0 2,953 42 0 5 0 48 59 0 5 64 1,126 19 1,144 1,780 0 1,780 Mar-14F 2,952 0 0 2,953 42 0 5 0 48 59 0 5 64 1,126 19 1,144 1,780 0 1,780 Mar-15F 2,952 0 0 2,953 42 0 5 0 48 59 0 5 64 1,126 19 1,144 1,780 0 1,780
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Mar-12A 208 21 16 (13) (112) 120 (50) (779) 0 (828) (713) 1,506 (69) (18) 706 (2) (708) (1,439) Mar-13F 112 23 0 0 7 141 (8) 0 (0) (8) 0 0 (118) (23) (141) (8) 134 110 Mar-14F 116 25 0 0 7 148 0 0 (0) (0) 0 0 (123) (25) (148) (0) 148 122 Mar-15F 120 25 0 0 7 152 0 0 (0) (0) 0 0 (127) (25) (152) (0) 152 126
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets
Mar-12A 6.5% 8.4% 69.9% 29.3% 5.35 0% 47% 0.86 0.86 0.77 (224%) 7.11% Mar-13F 21.6% 21.5% 69.9% 20.1% 5.84 0% 106% 0.74 0.74 0.65 (228%) 3.73% Mar-14F 4.3% 4.3% 69.9% 3.0% 5.56 0% 106% 0.74 0.74 0.65 (240%) 3.86% Mar-15F 2.7% 2.6% 69.9% 3.3% 5.72 0% 106% 0.74 0.74 0.65 (247%) 3.99%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$)
Mar-12A 7.6 N/A N/A 1,770,643 97.8% N/A N/A Mar-13F 8.1 N/A N/A 1,770,643 98.7% N/A N/A Mar-14F 8.3 N/A N/A 1,770,643 100.0% N/A N/A Mar-15F 8.5 N/A N/A 1,770,643 100.0% N/A N/A
119
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,840m
S$2,249m
US$2.45m
S$3.03m
69.7%
1,629 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Maintain Neutral
The key draw of MINTs portfolio is its bond-like income stream given its pure local exposure and positive rental reversions. Investors have, however, priced in its growth potential, in our view at current valuations of 1.4x P/BV. Owing to a lack of asset-divestment plans by JTC, expensive assets and fairly-high asset leverage, we are not expecting major purchases. Though this might limit risks of poor purchases, longer-term growth could also be hindered. We see a lack of compelling catalysts.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.38 1.44
Current
Target
1.50
Mar-11A 204.6 141.3 205.7 50.6 0.071 19.6% 19.46 0.035 2.51% 36.1% 0.95 1.46 7.85%
Mar-12A 246.4 171.3 220.4 131.7 0.082 15.3% 16.88 0.084 6.09% 37.7% 1.02 1.36 8.32%
Mar-13F 269.0 189.4 140.1 145.5 0.086 5.2% 16.04 0.089 6.47% 39.1% 1.02 1.36 8.47% 0% 0.98
Mar-14F 275.3 194.4 143.0 148.4 0.088 2.1% 15.72 0.091 6.60% 39.7% 1.02 1.36 8.64% 0% 0.99
Mar-15F 285.3 201.4 148.2 153.6 0.091 3.6% 15.17 0.094 6.83% 39.7% 1.02 1.36 8.96% 0% 1.02
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
Mar-12A 246.4 0.0 246.4 (75.1) 171.3 0.0 (19.0) (0.4) (2.2) 149.7 0.0 149.7 (23.3) 0.0 0.0 94.1 220.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 220.4 131.7 Mar-13F 269.0 0.0 269.0 (79.6) 189.4 0.0 (20.3) (0.4) (2.2) 166.4 0.0 166.4 (26.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 140.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 140.1 145.5 Mar-14F 275.3 0.0 275.3 (80.9) 194.4 0.0 (20.8) (0.4) (2.3) 170.9 0.0 170.9 (27.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 143.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 143.0 148.4 Mar-15F 285.3 0.0 285.3 (83.9) 201.4 0.0 (21.2) (0.4) (2.3) 177.5 0.0 177.5 (29.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 148.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 148.2 153.6 (S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity
|
Mar-12A 2,696 0 1 2,697 122 0 3 0 126 90 84 5 179 981 7 988 1,655 0 1,655
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity
|
Key Ratios
Mar-12A 220 23 21 (10) (93) 162 (1) (405) (0) (405) 105 299 (124) (22) 259 15 (243) (160) Mar-13F 140 26 0 0 0 166 (1) 0 1 (0) 62 0 (145) (29) (112) 54 167 202 Mar-14F 143 28 0 0 0 171 (1) (62) 1 (62) 30 0 (148) (24) (142) (33) 110 111 Mar-15F 148 29 0 0 0 177 (1) (30) 1 (30) 0 0 (154) (25) (178) (31) 147 117
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets
|
Mar-12A 20.4% 21.2% 69.5% 143% 6.35 0% 60% 0.70 0.70 0.68 (185%) 8.59%
Mar-13F 9.2% 10.5% 70.4% 6% 6.17 0% 104% 2.00 2.00 1.96 (184%) 4.92%
Mar-14F 2.4% 2.7% 70.6% 2% 5.92 0% 104% 1.63 1.63 1.59 (197%) 4.95%
Mar-15F 3.6% 3.6% 70.6% 4% 5.91 0% 104% 1.28 1.28 1.25 (205%) 5.10%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$)
|
121
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,173m
S$2,657m
US$3.07m
S$3.78m
59.0%
2,426 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Sustained stability
Underpinned by its long WALE of >5 years and strong occupancy of 99.2% at end-2QFY3/13, MLTs portfolio remains resilient. Leasing has also remained stable, with MLT still booking positive rental reversions of 8% in 2QFY13.
Harder to acquire
Acquisitions and developments are the key sources of growth for MLTs portfolio, given its long WALE. But the current environment of elevated capital values should make this difficult. Excluding our assumed S$100m in acquisitions, FY14 DPU growth would be a more muted <2% than our current 4%.
1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 Vol m 0.70 200 150 100 50
Nov-11
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 231.1 202.7 161.1 137.1 0.059 8.2% 18.45 0.060 5.47% 38.5% 0.86 1.28 6.96% Mar-12A 279.7 242.3 161.1 163.5 0.068 14.9% 16.05 0.067 6.15% 35.0% 0.90 1.21 7.74% Mar-13F 323.3 280.6 169.3 172.2 0.071 3.6% 15.50 0.071 6.48% 36.5% 0.90 1.21 7.82% 0% 0.96 Mar-14F 331.5 287.3 175.5 178.3 0.073 3.6% 14.96 0.073 6.71% 36.5% 0.90 1.21 8.09% 0% 0.98 Mar-15F 333.3 289.3 177.3 180.1 0.074 1.0% 14.81 0.074 6.78% 36.5% 0.90 1.21 8.18% 0% 0.95
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.10 1.18
Current
Target
1.21
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Mar-12A 4,058 0 0 4,058 168 0 26 21 214 152 244 31 427 1,251 56 1,308 2,194 0 344 2,538 Mar-13F 4,158 0 0 4,158 168 0 26 21 214 152 244 31 427 1,351 56 1,408 2,194 0 344 2,538 Mar-14F 4,158 0 0 4,158 168 0 26 21 214 152 244 31 427 1,351 56 1,408 2,194 0 344 2,538 Mar-15F 4,158 0 0 4,158 168 0 26 21 214 152 244 31 427 1,351 56 1,408 2,194 0 344 2,538
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Mar-12A 172.3 35.0 58.1 (6.9) (126.8) 131.8 0.0 (459.4) 0.0 (459.4) 101.6 343.3 (153.7) (31.4) 259.8 (67.8) (327.6) (257.5) Mar-13F 201.4 37.9 0.0 (13.3) 2.7 228.6 0.0 (99.6) 0.0 (99.6) 100.0 0.0 (172.2) (38.3) (110.5) 18.5 129.0 190.7 Mar-14F 207.9 37.8 0.0 (13.7) 2.7 234.7 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 (178.3) (38.3) (216.6) 18.6 235.2 196.9 Mar-15F 209.8 37.8 0.0 (13.9) 2.7 236.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 (180.1) (38.3) (218.4) 18.6 237.0 198.7
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Mar-12A 21.1% 19.5% 86.6% 12.6% 5.96 6.16% 101% 0.50 0.50 0.39 (178%) 3.93% Mar-13F 15.6% 15.8% 86.8% 5.4% 6.31 6.60% 102% 0.50 0.50 0.39 (165%) 3.92% Mar-14F 2.5% 2.4% 86.7% 3.5% 6.48 6.60% 102% 0.50 0.50 0.39 (169%) 4.01% Mar-15F 0.5% 0.7% 86.8% 1.0% 6.53 6.60% 102% 0.50 0.50 0.39 (171%) 4.05%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Mar-12A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4,158.3 N/A Mar-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4,158.3 N/A Mar-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4,158.3 N/A Mar-15F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4,158.3 N/A
123
Plantations SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
Mewah International
MII SP / MEWI.SI Current S$0.47 S$0.45 S$0.45 -2.4%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$573.1m
S$700.8m
US$0.64m
S$0.78m
36.0%
1,507 m shares
No revival in sight
Mewahs net profits are drifting down. Lacklustre CPO prices and poor consumer confidence could continue to take a toll on its sales volumes, while higher fixed costs from business expansion could further gnaw at its profits.
Add to that a poor track record and we see little chance of a reversal of fortunes soon. Profits have fallen to an all-time low. Management expects the weakness to persist amid poor consumer confidence. We maintain our Underperform, EPS and target price, based on CY13 NAV.
Strong headwinds
Mewahs earnings record is littered with disappointments, a trend that may not reverse any time soon. It has been hit by a series of unfortunate events since listing. The first was falling CPO prices, which weighed on its volumes and processing margins. Worsening matters was Indonesias revamp of its palm-oil export-tax structure, putting Malaysian refiners such as Mewah at a disadvantage to their Indonesian counterparts. These had led to a sharp tumble in Mewahs net profits since listing in 2010.
Vol m
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 3,533 131.7 92.35 0.064 (7.5%) 5.46 0.015 3.85% 4.81 40.92 21.8% 1.13 26.0% Dec-11A 4,468 65.1 42.25 0.027 (58.5%) 14.24 0.004 1.10% 12.60 NA 46.4% 1.06 7.7% Dec-12F 3,699 59.2 17.35 0.012 (56.9%) 33.03 0.002 0.61% 12.80 8.26 33.9% 1.04 3.2% (0%) 0.46 Dec-13F 3,933 64.6 22.62 0.015 30.4% 25.34 0.003 0.79% 11.91 NA 34.8% 1.01 4.0% (0%) 0.50 Dec-14F 5,102 75.0 31.08 0.021 37.4% 18.44 0.004 1.08% 11.44 NA 48.2% 0.96 5.3% 0% 0.54
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
0.45
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Mewah International
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 137 411 307 84 939 288 0 3 14 305 339 210 95 645 47 15 62 0 706 540 (2) 538 Dec-12F 200 370 222 89 881 361 0 3 14 378 339 210 99 648 47 15 62 0 710 551 (2) 549 Dec-13F 188 393 236 91 908 369 0 3 14 387 339 224 102 665 47 15 62 0 727 570 (2) 568 Dec-14F 99 510 306 100 1,016 373 0 3 14 390 339 290 120 749 47 15 62 0 811 597 (2) 595
42 40 40
17 17 17
23 23 23
31 31 31
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 65.1 0.0 (70.0) Dec-12F 59.2 0.0 107.8 Dec-13F 64.6 0.0 (33.8) Dec-14F 75.0 0.0 (124.1)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 26.5% (50.6%) 1.46% (0.17) 0.36 3.95 (2.9%) 14.9% 34.23 23.50 19.74 6.7% 5.8% Dec-12F (17.2%) (9.2%) 1.60% (0.12) 0.37 2.15 13.0% 20.0% 38.63 27.69 21.99 3.9% 4.0% Dec-13F 6.3% 9.2% 1.64% (0.13) 0.38 3.29 15.0% 20.0% 35.41 22.43 21.23 4.2% 4.0% Dec-14F 29.7% 16.1% 1.47% (0.19) 0.40 4.16 15.0% 20.0% 32.32 20.47 19.39 5.1% 5.0%
8.4 (5.5) (26.4) (28.4) (92.2) (11.5) 0.0 0.0 (103.8) 59.8 (1.4) 0.0 (4.3) 0.8 54.8
0.0 0.0 (2.6) 164.4 (95.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (95.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (6.3) 0.0 (6.3)
0.0 0.0 (4.0) 26.8 (35.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (35.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (3.5) 0.0 (3.5)
0.0 0.0 (5.5) (54.6) (30.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (4.5) 0.0 (4.5)
Key Drivers
(US$) Volumes Moved (% Change) Rates Charged (% Change) Acquisitions (m) Dec-11A -5.2% 33.4% N/A Dec-12F -5.7% -12.2% N/A Dec-13F 3.1% 3.1% N/A Dec-14F 27.2% 2.0% N/A
125
Midas Holdings
MIDAS SP / MIDA.SI Current S$0.38 S$0.53 S$0.53 41.2%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$373.8m
S$456.6m
US$3.64m
S$4.46m
78.9%
1,218 m shares
Price Close
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.38 0.43
Current
|
Target
0.53
Dec-10A 1,030 305.3 240.8 0.23 14% 8.2 0.010 0.52% 3.89 NA (20.1%) 0.81 10.8%
Dec-11A 1,081 321.5 187.4 0.15 (34%) 12.4 0.015 0.79% 7.82 NA 12.9% 0.78 6.4%
Dec-12F 848 239.9 4.4 0.00 (98%) 527.3 0.020 1.05% 13.26 NA 35.2% 0.78 0.1% 0% 0.23
Dec-13F 1,259 410.5 160.2 0.13 3531% 14.5 0.030 1.57% 9.46 NA 56.2% 0.75 5.3% 0% 1.11
Dec-14F 1,562 497.5 208.0 0.17 30% 11.2 0.030 1.57% 8.59 12.15 65.1% 0.71 6.5% (0%) 1.02
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Midas Holdings
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
Dec-11A 1,081 362 322 (82) 239 (39) 8 17 225 0 225 (38) 187 0 0 Dec-12F 848 263 240 (110) 130 (85) (32) 10 23 0 23 (19) 3 1 0 Dec-13F 1,259 420 410 (130) 280 (84) 12 5 214 0 214 (53) 160 0 0 Dec-14F 1,562 504 498 (140) 358 (103) 18 5 277 0 277 (69) 208 0 0 (Rmbm) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Dec-11A 711 698 478 20 1,907 1,938 429 0 27 2,394 910 232 0 1,142 183 0 183 2 1,327 2,974 0 2,974
Dec-12F 471 813 534 32 1,851 2,483 429 0 27 2,938 919 290 0 1,210 600 0 600 2 1,812 2,978 (1) 2,977
Dec-13F 76 1,035 555 32 1,698 3,032 429 0 27 3,487 831 241 0 1,072 997 0 997 2 2,071 3,116 (1) 3,115
Dec-14F 156 856 689 31 1,731 3,526 429 0 27 3,981 703 128 0 832 1,592 0 1,592 2 2,426 3,287 (1) 3,286
4 4 4
Cash Flow
(Rmbm) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Dec-11A 322 (423) Dec-12F 240 (113) Dec-13F 410 (291) Dec-14F 498 (68) Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (Rmb) BVPS (Rmb) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
(0) (7) (74) (183) (601) 1 (115) (35) (750) 415 0 0 (60) 0 355
Dec-11A 4.9% 5.3% 29.7% (0.31) 2.44 6.18 16.9% 32% 204.3 169.8 106.8 9.8% 6.30%
Dec-12F (21.5%) (25.4%) 28.3% (0.86) 2.45 1.53 85.0% 552% 326.0 316.6 163.4 3.5% 3.03%
Dec-13F 48.4% 71.1% 32.6% (1.44) 2.56 3.35 25.0% 23% 267.9 237.0 115.7 6.2% 5.94%
Dec-14F 24.1% 21.2% 31.9% (1.76) 2.70 3.47 25.0% 18% 220.9 214.7 63.8 6.4% 6.79%
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv) Unit raw mat ASP (%chg,main) Unit raw mat ASP (%chg,2ndary)
|
127
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,351m
S$2,872m
US$8.04m
S$9.87m
30.0%
2,583 m shares
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 9,422 817.3 460.9 0.18 na 4.68 0.035 3.89% 2.85 3.22 12% 0.73 15.1% Dec-11A 9,211 (103.7) (478.2) -0.18 (201%) NA 0.00% NA NA 80% 0.90 (15.8%) Dec-12F 9,404 149.8 (318.9) -0.09 (48%) NA 0.00% 36.16 10.81 140% 1.03 (9.8%) (0%) 1.29 Dec-13F 9,784 286.1 44.9 -0.06 (37%) NA 0.003 0.37% 21.06 12.00 163% 1.01 (6.6%) 0% 0.21 Dec-14F 10,559 677.9 215.5 0.08 na 10.89 0.00% 8.87 5.58 149% 0.93 8.9% 0% 0.60
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
1.12
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 228 1,046 327 165 1,766 4,790 246 160 0 5,196 422 1,274 429 2,126 1,932 252 2,184 0 4,310 2,601 51 2,652 Dec-12F 418 1,068 325 165 1,975 5,580 251 160 0 5,992 422 1,266 429 2,117 3,259 252 3,511 0 5,629 2,282 56 2,338 Dec-13F 563 1,111 333 165 2,173 6,206 261 160 0 6,627 422 1,300 429 2,151 4,020 252 4,272 0 6,423 2,316 61 2,377 Dec-14F 944 1,199 347 165 2,655 6,355 271 160 0 6,787 422 1,352 429 2,203 4,389 252 4,641 0 6,844 2,531 66 2,597
45 -151 -151
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A -104 -4 Dec-12F 150 -28 Dec-13F 286 -18 Dec-14F 678 -49
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (2.2%) (113%) (1.13%) -0.82 1.01 -12.20 (10.5%) 0.0% 42.16 12.22 52.42 (9.0%) (8.0%) Dec-12F 2.1% N/A 1.59% -1.26 0.88 -3.56 (18.9%) 0.0% 41.13 14.10 54.95 (2.8%) (2.8%) Dec-13F 4.0% 91% 2.92% -1.50 0.90 -1.11 50.0% (8.6%) 40.63 13.83 53.92 (1.0%) (0.9%) Dec-14F 7.9% 137% 6.42% -1.50 0.98 4.34 18.5% 0.0% 39.92 13.74 53.56 4.0% 4.5%
39 -39 -50 218 -1,087 304 0 0 -783 761 0 0 -11 -39 711
Key Drivers
Average Revenue (US$/FEU) Average Revenue (US$/TEU) Liner rates (yoy chg. %) Cargo Carried (m FEU) Cargo carried (FEU, yoy chg. %) Cargo Carried (m TEU) Cargo carried (TEU, yoy chg. %) Fleet Size (no. Of Vessels) No. Of Container Ships Dec-11A 2,500.5 1,250.3 -10.3% 2.98 5.2% 0.10 -77.9% 144.0 144 Dec-12F 2,528.2 1,264.1 1.1% 3.00 0.8% 0.02 -85.5% 154.0 154 Dec-13F 2,512.1 1,256.1 -0.6% 3.15 5.0% 0.10 559.3% 167.0 167 Dec-14F 2,603.7 1,301.8 3.6% 3.31 5.0% 0.10 0.0% 176.0 176
129
Noble Group
NOBL SP / NOBG.SI Current S$1.09 S$1.45 S$1.45 33.2%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$5,787m
S$7,076m
US$45.74m
S$56.27m
50.0%
6,389 m shares
Negatives priced in
Contrary to consensus expectations of a profit recovery, Nobles 3Q12 disappointed. Although there is a risk that earnings shocks could be the new norm, we believe the negatives have been priced in.
Poor results, coupled with Vice Chairman Harry Bangas stake sale, have sent the stock to a 52-week low. Against low expectations and low institutional ownership, any positives from improved sentiment or economic data could spur a re-rating. Maintain Outperform with EPS and target price (10.1x CY14 P/E, 0.5SD below its 5-year mean) intact.
Bargain-hunting opportunity
We view its share-price weakness as a buying opportunity. The stock has fallen below -1SD of its P/BV band and is under-owned by institutional investors. Against low expectations, incrementally positive economic data and improvements in sentiment could spark a re-rating, we believe.
1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 Vol m 0.90 400 300 200 100
Nov-11
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 56,696 1,171 605.6 0.09 8.9% 10.49 0.025 2.82% 8.87 7.61 102% 1.35 14.8% Dec-11A 80,732 1,114 431.3 0.05 (39.7%) 17.79 0.017 1.89% 9.34 NA 87% 1.08 6.9% Dec-12F 91,010 1,076 482.8 0.07 34.5% 12.95 0.019 2.09% 7.91 2.92 48% 1.02 8.2% 0% 0.96 Dec-13F 97,379 1,199 676.6 0.10 50.4% 8.55 0.026 2.93% 6.96 21.62 41% 0.93 11.4% 0% 1.06 Dec-14F 104,293 1,347 794.6 0.12 17.4% 7.28 0.031 3.44% 6.12 20.81 36% 0.85 12.2% (0%) 1.03
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
1.45
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Noble Group
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 1,549 2,706 2,852 8,113 15,218 2,556 0 833 1,223 4,612 655 7,535 529 8,719 5,470 352 5,821 0 14,540 5,283 7 5,290 Dec-12F 3,418 3,276 3,185 7,399 17,279 2,732 0 833 1,214 4,779 655 9,851 70 10,576 5,470 352 5,821 0 16,397 5,658 3 5,661 Dec-13F 3,565 3,506 3,408 7,917 18,396 2,975 0 833 1,206 5,014 655 10,530 185 11,370 5,470 352 5,821 0 17,191 6,214 5 6,219 Dec-14F 3,674 3,755 3,650 8,479 19,558 3,206 0 833 1,198 5,238 655 11,266 206 12,127 5,470 352 5,821 0 17,948 6,839 8 6,847
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 1,114 (15) 1,425 Dec-12F 1,076 (8) (507) Dec-13F 1,199 (8) (291) Dec-14F 1,347 (8) (317)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 42.4% (4.9%) 1.38% (0.72) 0.83 2.41 12.6% 25.0% 10.78 15.70 31.41 7.7% 8.1% Dec-12F 12.7% (3.4%) 1.18% (0.42) 0.87 2.36 1.0% 25.0% 12.03 12.34 35.53 6.9% 7.3% Dec-13F 7.0% 11.4% 1.23% (0.39) 0.96 4.43 15.0% 25.0% 12.71 12.57 38.86 9.9% 8.6% Dec-14F 7.1% 12.4% 1.29% (0.38) 1.05 5.06 15.0% 25.0% 12.70 12.58 38.84 10.7% 9.3%
317 (366) (155) 2,320 (472) (872) (141) (1,485) (887) 753 (183) (455) (772)
Key Drivers
(US$) Volumes Moved (% Change) Rates Charged (% Change) Acquisitions (m) Dec-11A 2.1% 19.2% N/A Dec-12F 19.5% 7.3% N/A Dec-13F 5.1% 2.5% N/A Dec-14F 4.4% 2.0% N/A
131
Banks SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
OCBC
OCBC SP / OCBC.SI Current S$9.21 S$10.63 S$10.63 15.5%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$25,860m
S$31,591m
US$23.20m
S$28.50m
65.0%
3,437 m shares
Daniel Lau
T (65) 62108614 E daniel.lau@cimb.com
Price Close
Financial Summary
Net Interest Income (S$m) Total Non-Interest Income (S$m) Operating Revenue (S$m) Total Provision Charges (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
9.21 9.58
Current
|
Target
10.63
Dec-10A 2,947 2,378 5,325 (134.0) 2,253 0.69 21.0% 13.13 30.00 326% 6.23 1.48 11.3%
Dec-11A 3,410 2,251 5,661 (221.0) 2,312 0.68 (2.0%) 13.38 30.00 326% 6.57 1.40 10.5%
Dec-12F 3,766 4,083 7,849 (270.1) 3,956 0.81 19.7% 11.23 34.00 369% 7.38 1.25 11.6% 0% 1.09
Dec-13F 3,969 2,881 6,850 (346.5) 2,759 0.80 (1.1%) 11.48 35.00 380% 7.83 1.18 10.6% 0% 1.04
Dec-14F 4,253 3,001 7,254 (277.9) 3,000 0.87 8.7% 10.55 38.00 413% 8.32 1.11 10.8% 0% 1.05
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
OCBC
Balance Sheet
Dec-11A 3,410 2,251 5,661 (2,430) 3,231 (221) 3,010 7 3,017 (61) 2,956 0 2,956 (477) Dec-12F 3,766 4,083 7,849 (2,656) 5,193 (270) 4,923 29 4,952 (61) 4,891 0 4,891 (680) Dec-13F 3,969 2,881 6,850 (2,946) 3,905 (347) 3,558 30 3,588 (61) 3,527 0 3,527 (563) Dec-14F 4,253 3,001 7,254 (3,119) 4,135 (278) 3,857 30 3,887 (61) 3,826 0 3,826 (610) (S$m) Total Gross Loans Liquid Assets & Investments (Current) Other Interest Earning Assets Total Gross Interest Earning Assets Total Provisions/Loan Loss Reserve Total Net Interest Earning Assets Intangible Assets Other Non-Interest Earning Assets Total Non-Interest Earning Assets Cash And Marketable Securities Long-term Investments Total Assets Customer Interest-Bearing Liabilities Bank Deposits Interest Bearing Liabilities: Others Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities Bank's Liabilities Under Acceptances Total Non-Interest Bearing Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Dec-11A 160,640 35,728 196,368 1,532 197,900 3,947 63,014 66,961 12,897 0 277,758 154,555 21,653 21,009 197,217 0 55,151 252,368 22,571 2,819 25,390
Dec-12F 168,956 35,993 204,949 1,802 206,751 3,886 63,109 66,995 13,577 0 287,323 160,428 22,303 21,009 203,740 0 55,151 258,891 25,358 3,074 28,432
Dec-13F 181,934 36,263 218,198 2,149 220,346 3,825 63,089 66,914 14,770 0 302,030 173,262 22,414 21,009 216,685 0 55,151 271,836 26,914 3,280 30,194
Dec-14F 193,825 36,539 230,364 2,427 232,791 3,765 63,069 66,833 18,289 0 317,913 187,123 22,526 21,009 230,658 0 55,151 285,809 28,608 3,496 32,104
Key Ratios
Dec-11A 85.4% 86.6% 72.2% 100.0% 48.1% 75.8% 18.3% 48.1% 0.059% 0.031% 0.120% Dec-12F 87.1% 88.5% 76.4% 100.0% 49.3% 77.5% 19.4% 49.3% 0.079% 0.040% 0.191% Dec-13F 87.8% 89.4% 77.8% 100.0% 51.1% 78.9% 19.1% 51.1% 0.142% 0.075% 0.235% Dec-14F 87.4% 89.1% 78.0% 100.0% 52.2% 79.1% 19.0% 52.2% 0.098% 0.053% 0.179% Total Income Growth Operating Profit Growth Pretax Profit Growth Net Interest To Total Income Cost Of Funds Return On Interest Earning Assets Net Interest Spread Net Interest Margin (Avg Deposits) Net Interest Margin (Avg RWA) Provisions to Pre Provisions Operating Profit Interest Return On Average Assets Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio
|
Dec-11A 6.3% 5.2% 2.6% 60.2% 1.12% 2.91% 1.79% 2.21% 2.86% 6.84% 1.35% 16.1% 44.6%
Dec-12F 38.7% 60.7% 65.5% 48.0% 1.13% 2.78% 1.66% 2.35% 2.74% 5.20% 1.33% 13.9% 29.5%
Dec-13F (12.7%) (24.8%) (27.9%) 57.9% 1.16% 2.80% 1.64% 2.29% 2.68% 8.87% 1.35% 16.0% 43.6%
Dec-14F 5.9% 5.9% 8.5% 58.6% 1.16% 2.84% 1.68% 2.27% 2.65% 6.72% 1.37% 16.0% 43.5%
Key Drivers
Loan Growth (%) Net Interest Margin (%) Non Interest Income Growth (%) Cost-income Ratio (%) Net NPL Ratio (%) Loan Loss Reserve (%) GP Ratio (%) RWCR (%) Deposit Growth (%) Loan-deposit Ratio (%) Gross NPL Ratio (%) Fee Income Growth (%)
|
Dec-11A 27.5% 1.9% -5.3% 42.9% 0.9% 130.7% 0.9% 15.1% 25.3% 86.4% 0.9% 14.4%
Dec-12F 5.9% 1.7% 81.4% 33.8% 0.9% 144.7% 1.0% 16.8% 3.8% 88.2% 0.9% 6.2%
Dec-13F 8.9% 1.7% -29.4% 43.0% 1.1% 128.9% 1.0% 16.4% 8.0% 89.1% 1.1% 5.8%
Dec-14F 7.4% 1.8% 4.2% 43.0% 1.3% 116.1% 1.0% 16.4% 8.0% 88.7% 1.3% 6.2%
133
Olam International
OLAM SP / OLAM.SI Current S$1.50 S$1.59 S$1.59 6.0%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,930m
S$3,585m
US$26.18m
S$32.15m
40.6%
2,442 m shares
Valuation support
Olam has rebuffed Muddy Waters allegations in a detailed 45-page response. In our view, the explanations were satisfactory and should clear any misunderstanding caused by Muddy Waters accusations.
We have upgraded our rating from Trading Sell to Neutral, believing that the worst of this saga is over. The stock should find valuation support at book value. Our target price is based on CY13 NAV. Our earnings forecasts are unchanged. financials, much of which has since been clarified. Perhaps a positive takeaway from this saga is greater clarity into its acquisitions, details of which were previously scant. The group has shared qualitative and quantitative insights into its acquisitions, including Crown Flour Mills, Queensland Cotton, SK Foods, NZFSU and the Gabon urea fertiliser project. A number of them have shown improved operating metrics since being acquired.
Accusations addressed
Olam has issued a rebuttal against Muddy Waters allegations. The main issues surrounding its solvency, aggressive accounting of net profit, acquisitions and capital expenditure were addressed. Management further reassured us that its bankers and counterparties remain committed. Olam will post a more comprehensive report in due course.
Worst is over
The worst is over, but sentiment could remain subdued as investors remain cautious. We would turn positive when the stock falls closer to its Sep 12 book value of S$1.35. Biological assets comprise roughly 19% of NAV.
Vol m
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Jun-11A 15,803 918 429.8 0.14 21.9% 12.52 0.024 1.58% 11.02 NA 248% 1.49 15.0% Jun-12A 17,094 967 370.9 0.11 (22.5%) 15.77 0.051 3.42% 11.37 NA 181% 1.08 9.1% Jun-13F 18,775 1,070 403.7 0.17 50.5% 10.52 0.041 2.76% 11.43 NA 189% 0.99 11.4% 0% 0.98 Jun-14F 20,919 1,192 463.8 0.19 14.9% 9.15 0.047 3.17% 10.84 NA 188% 0.90 11.9% 0% 0.90 Jun-15F 23,333 1,353 607.1 0.25 30.9% 6.99 0.062 4.14% 9.48 18.59 168% 0.81 14.2% 0% 0.94
Sep-12
Current
1.59
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Olam International
November 29, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Jun-12A 1,111 2,563 4,410 1,302 9,386 2,621 1,114 660 47 4,442 3,148 1,134 1,483 5,765 4,341 0 4,341 194 10,300 3,406 122 3,528 Jun-13F 235 2,653 4,600 1,302 8,789 3,427 1,114 660 47 5,248 3,148 1,224 1,299 5,672 4,341 0 4,341 194 10,207 3,708 122 3,831 Jun-14F 76 2,851 5,021 1,302 9,250 3,903 1,114 660 47 5,725 3,148 1,362 1,317 5,827 4,775 0 4,775 194 10,796 4,056 122 4,178 Jun-15F 153 3,180 5,367 1,302 10,002 3,784 1,114 660 47 5,605 3,148 1,519 1,336 6,004 4,775 0 4,775 194 10,973 4,512 122 4,634
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Jun-12A 967 (37) (307) Jun-13F 1,070 0 (373) Jun-14F 1,192 0 (464) Jun-15F 1,353 0 (498)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Jun-12A 8.2% 5.3% 5.66% (2.61) 1.39 1.92 7.8% 33.7% 34.18 105.5 29.42 9.5% 8.3% Jun-13F 9.8% 10.7% 5.70% (2.97) 1.52 2.13 13.0% 25.0% 31.95 107.5 28.12 8.1% 7.7% Jun-14F 11.4% 11.4% 5.70% (3.21) 1.66 2.22 13.0% 25.0% 31.17 103.1 27.72 7.9% 8.1% Jun-15F 11.5% 13.5% 5.80% (3.18) 1.85 2.60 13.0% 25.0% 31.15 99.8 27.69 8.5% 9.1%
(35) (351) (48) 187 (875) 10 (366) (18) (1,248) 734 674 (125) 0 1,284
Key Drivers
(S$) Volumes Moved (% Change) Rates Charged (% Change) Acquisitions (m) Jun-12A 26.3% -14.4% N/A Jun-13F 11.6% -1.5% N/A Jun-14F 12.1% -0.6% N/A Jun-15F 12.2% -0.6% N/A
135
Retail SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$737.4m
S$900.8m
US$0.85m
S$1.05m
25.0%
650.4 m shares
Chris Wong
T (852) 25321128 E chris.c.wong@cimb.com
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Jun-11A 367.3 64.8 35.01 0.061 55.4% 21.66 0.095 7.11% 10.84 16.1 (74.9%) 6.44 27.8% Jun-12A 442.3 78.5 45.47 0.072 17.5% 17.68 0.00% 8.28 33.8 (79.0%) 3.64 26.0% Jun-13F 483.3 81.3 48.89 0.072 0.0% 18.06 0.029 2.17% 8.75 127.0 (66.7%) 3.41 19.5% (0%) 0.88 Jun-14F 540.2 95.4 58.13 0.086 18.9% 15.50 0.034 2.58% 7.45 23.8 (64.6%) 3.04 20.8% 0% 0.85 Jun-15F 603.7 110.7 67.57 0.100 16.3% 13.33 0.040 3.00% 6.21 18.3 (64.2%) 2.70 21.5% (0%) 0.91
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
1.75
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Jun-12A 190.3 29.9 58.2 5.4 283.9 79.5 0.1 7.5 45.0 132.1 0.1 145.0 23.2 168.3 0.0 7.0 7.0 0.0 175.3 237.8 3.0 240.8 Jun-13F 177.7 34.2 63.6 6.7 282.3 104.1 0.1 7.4 64.0 175.6 0.1 158.4 25.4 183.9 0.0 7.7 7.7 0.0 191.6 264.2 2.2 266.3 Jun-14F 192.3 39.9 71.1 8.6 311.8 121.9 0.1 7.3 70.4 199.8 0.1 177.1 28.4 205.6 0.0 8.6 8.6 0.0 214.1 296.0 1.4 297.5 Jun-15F 214.5 46.5 79.5 10.8 351.3 137.2 0.1 7.2 77.6 222.2 0.1 197.9 31.7 229.7 0.0 9.6 9.6 0.0 239.3 333.6 0.7 334.2
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Jun-12A 78.5 (4.0) Jun-13F 81.3 1.4 Jun-14F 95.4 2.2 Jun-15F 110.7 1.8
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Jun-12A 20.4% 21.1% 17.7% 0.29 0.37 127.7 28.4% 0% 21.89 116.4 283.6 135% 35.3% Jun-13F 9.3% 3.5% 16.8% 0.26 0.39 304.2 28.5% 40% 23.57 119.7 295.3 88% 26.2% Jun-14F 11.8% 17.3% 17.7% 0.28 0.44 732.1 28.5% 40% 24.38 121.9 300.7 63% 28.1% Jun-15F 11.7% 16.1% 18.3% 0.32 0.49 859.5 28.5% 40% 25.48 124.7 307.6 63% 29.2%
(0.6) (0.5) (19.7) 53.7 (28.5) 0.1 0.0 (0.7) (29.1) (0.0) 72.4 0.0 0.0 72.4
4.5 (0.2) (19.1) 67.8 (45.0) 0.0 0.0 (15.9) (60.9) 0.0 0.0 (19.6) 0.0 (19.6)
4.6 (0.1) (22.8) 79.3 (40.0) 0.0 0.0 (1.5) (41.5) 0.0 0.0 (23.3) 0.0 (23.2)
4.9 (0.1) (26.6) 90.8 (40.0) 0.0 0.0 (1.5) (41.5) 0.0 0.0 (27.0) 0.0 (27.0)
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) No. of POS (main prod/serv) SSS grth (%, main prod/serv) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) No. of POS (2ndary prod/serv) SSS grth (%, 2ndary prrod/serv) Jun-12A N/A N/A 54 9.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-13F N/A N/A 61 7.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-14F N/A N/A 69 7.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A Jun-15F N/A N/A 77 7.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
137
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,054m
S$1,289m
US$1.07m
S$1.31m
64.2%
605.0 m shares
Inflation hedge
Downside protection and CPI-pegged rents provide two characteristics particularly desirable in the current environment: an inflation hedge and DPU resilience. Valuations have consistently reached new highs. We have turned cautious with dividend yields at 4.5% and 1.4x P/BV.
We maintain our estimates and DDM-based target price (6.7% discount rate). We remain Neutral. Larger-than-expected acquisitions are the key potential rerating catalyst. assets with quality assets with growth potential. Growth of its Japan exposure has largely been acquisition-led. As a longer-term strategy, this asset-recycling initiative will maintain the organic growth of the Japan portfolio consistently through the next few years without overextending concentration in one market.
Acquisitions in 2013
We continue to anticipate acquisition of hospitals in Malaysia from either third parties or its sponsor. Assets are priced at bite-sized amounts of S$10m-30m each. The REIT has S$229m debt headroom to 45% gearing but also the flexibility for mixed funding of any acquisitions. With reliability of partner operator as a key criterion, we expect quality acquisitions on a larger scale when negotiations make further headway. S$150m acquisitions have been factored in for 2013.
Premium valuations
Managements strong track record in delivering consistent growth lends the REIT further credibility. Management prudence ensures that the REIT understands a market before entering when the right opportunity comes along. Another positive is the preference for less structured transactions. That said, we think that yields have compressed to levels that reflect this premium, along with organic and acquisition growth, with the latter already being anticipated by the market for some time. Earlier or larger-than-expected acquisitions could be rerating catalysts.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 80.0 73.6 65.1 53.17 0.08 7.5% 26.91 0.09 4.13% 34.4% 1.41 1.51 5.66% Dec-11A 87.8 80.3 102.0 58.05 0.10 20.8% 22.27 0.10 4.51% 34.6% 1.48 1.44 6.62% Dec-12F 95.4 87.6 61.4 61.00 0.10 6.0% 21.00 0.10 4.73% 39.1% 1.49 1.43 6.83% 0% 1.01 Dec-13F 104.6 96.1 62.6 65.68 0.10 2.0% 20.60 0.11 5.10% 42.8% 1.49 1.43 6.96% 0% 0.94 Dec-14F 113.1 103.8 68.9 72.04 0.11 10.2% 18.70 0.12 5.59% 42.8% 1.49 1.43 7.67% 0% 1.04
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
2.13 2.19
Current
Target
2.28
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Dec-11A 1,384 0 1 1,385 36 0 8 0 45 13 6 2 21 489 24 513 896 0 896 Dec-12F 1,493 0 0 1,493 35 0 8 0 43 15 6 2 23 596 20 615 899 0 899 Dec-13F 1,595 0 0 1,595 35 0 8 0 43 16 6 2 24 696 20 715 899 0 899 Dec-14F 1,597 0 0 1,597 34 0 8 0 43 17 6 2 25 696 20 715 899 0 899
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Dec-11A 107.5 8.8 0.3 (3.7) (46.1) 66.8 (1.6) (10.2) 0.0 (11.8) 5.0 0.0 (57.5) (8.3) (60.8) (5.8) 55.1 51.8 Dec-12F 67.2 8.9 1.9 (5.9) 0.1 72.2 (3.5) (106.5) 0.0 (109.9) 106.5 0.0 (61.0) (8.9) 36.5 (1.2) (37.7) 59.8 Dec-13F 70.2 14.0 1.4 (7.7) 0.0 78.0 1.5 (100.0) 0.0 (98.5) 100.0 0.0 (65.7) (14.0) 20.3 (0.2) (20.5) 65.5 Dec-14F 77.6 14.0 1.3 (8.7) 0.0 84.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 (72.0) (14.0) (86.1) (0.3) 85.8 71.7
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Dec-11A 9.6% 9.1% 91.5% 9.0% 7.88 5.1% 57% 2.15 2.15 1.75 (996%) 7.34% Dec-12F 8.6% 9.1% 91.9% 5.1% 8.55 8.8% 99% 1.92 1.92 1.55 (1265%) 4.14% Dec-13F 9.7% 9.7% 91.9% 7.7% 6.01 10.9% 105% 1.80 1.80 1.45 (897%) 3.94% Dec-14F 8.0% 8.0% 91.8% 9.7% 6.53 11.2% 105% 1.70 1.70 1.36 (831%) 4.21%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A 2,265 100.0% 1,384.0 N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A 2,265 100.0% 1,493.5 N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A 2,265 100.0% 1,595.1 N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A 2,265 100.0% 1,596.7 N/A
139
REIT SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$452.1m
S$552.3m
US$0.64m
S$0.78m
51.0%
1,122 m shares
Improvements ahead
After a difficult 2012, management expects operational improvements in 1Q13 for operational malls. The recent restructuring of its Xian pipeline asset provides certainty of acquisitions and NAV growth down the road. We look forward to revaluations in 2013, lowering gearing.
Execution is key and we look for leasing improvements and stronger earnings from completed malls. No change to our estimates or target price (30% discount to RNAV). Maintain Outperform with earnings delivery as stock catalyst. We look forward to improvements next year, as earnings from malls have picked up since 2Q12. Its Foshan mall will also commence operations in 1Q13 and is on track for 80-90% occupancy. We expect higher yields on cost than for the Shenyang mall. On completion of four of its seven assets from two last year, we expect some revaluation gains, pushing down its gearing and lifting NAV. Rental contributions should strengthen, sustaining its dividends when earn-out tapers off in 2014. In the meantime, 8-9% yields are supported by its cash buffer.
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Difficult 2012
Due to delays in the completion of its Shenyang mall and home-purchase restrictions in China, management was a distance behind its projected earnings during IPO. 2012 has been a difficult year as the trust mitigated bumps along the way by negotiating for compensatory earn-out and restructuring its furniture mall to lower its reliance on furniture tenants. Management warns that its Shenyang malls could face challenging conditions in the next few quarters. 2012 was also the year when a local partner sold his shares to Mr Kuok Khoon Hong and a new funding vehicle was created with additional S$500m capital.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Dec-11A 0.00 0.00 5.96 1.40 (0.002) 0% NA 0.024 4.80% 7.5% 0.71 0.69
Current
|
Target
0.59
Dec-12F 0.00 0.00 (5.31) 0.36 (0.005) 137% NA 0.039 7.90% 31.9% 0.61 0.80 (0.72%) 0% 1.57
Dec-13F 6.19 3.71 10.43 18.18 0.009 na 53.10 0.038 7.85% 42.9% 0.64 0.76 1.47% 0% 1.15
Dec-14F 21.48 12.89 19.14 28.21 0.017 82% 29.16 0.043 8.76% 52.1% 0.61 0.80 2.67% 0% 0.88
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
Dec-12F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (3.50) (0.27) (2.58) (6.35) 0.00 (6.35) (4.82) 6.17 0.00 0.00 (5.00) (0.31) 0.00 0.00 (5.31) 0.36 Dec-13F 6.19 0.00 6.19 (2.47) 3.71 0.00 (5.74) (0.34) (2.58) (4.95) 0.00 (4.95) (6.54) 23.07 0.00 0.00 11.59 (1.15) 0.00 0.00 10.43 18.18 Dec-14F 21.48 0.00 21.48 (8.59) 12.89 0.00 (7.12) (0.42) (2.58) 2.77 0.00 2.77 (6.40) 23.97 0.00 0.00 20.34 (1.20) 0.00 0.00 19.14 28.21 (S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity
|
Dec-12F 891 0 0 891 204 0 19 0 224 28 89 43 160 266 0 266 688 0 0 688
Dec-13F 1,150 0 0 1,150 222 0 19 0 241 28 149 35 212 448 0 448 731 0 0 731
Dec-14F 1,399 0 0 1,399 179 0 19 0 198 28 208 35 271 625 0 625 701 0 0 701
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity
|
Key Ratios
Dec-12F (5.0) (1.3) 0.0 (0.1) 3.4 (3.1) 0.0 (197.6) 18.4 (179.2) 286.5 0.0 (1.4) (11.3) 273.8 91.5 (182.2) 99.4 Dec-13F 11.6 (16.5) 0.0 (1.2) 5.5 (0.6) 0.0 (256.0) 28.3 (227.6) 241.9 0.0 (0.4) (66.1) 175.4 (52.8) (228.1) 7.1 Dec-14F 20.3 (17.6) 0.0 (1.2) 6.8 8.4 0.0 (246.2) 19.9 (226.4) 235.6 0.0 (9.1) (17.3) 209.2 (8.7) (217.7) 11.2 Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets
|
Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A 64.6% (1.29) (6.17%) (822%) 1.40 1.40 1.28 (91.5%) (0.52%)
Dec-13F N/A N/A 60.0% (0.7%) (0.74) 9.96% 418% 1.14 1.14 1.05 12.4% 0.83%
Dec-14F 247% 247% 60.0% 11.6% 0.41 5.89% 257% 0.73 0.73 0.66 6.0% 1.28%
RNAV RNAV (S$m) 604 1,048 1,652 (462) (236) 954 1,125 0.85 Discount to RNAV 30% % of GAV 37% 63% 100%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$)
|
Completed properties Properties under construction GAV Less: FY14 net debt (incl any off b/s debt) Less: purchase/capex costs (undiscounted) RNAV Fully-diluted no. of shares (m) RNAV per share (S$)
Target Price
0.59
141
Petra Foods
PETRA SP / PEFO.SI Current S$2.80 S$1.92 S$1.92 -31.3%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,400m
S$1,711m
US$0.25m
S$0.30m
37.0%
611.2 m shares
Not-so-sweet prospects
Petras cocoa-processing margins are under threat from an overcapacity of grinding facilities in Indonesia. Margins have just started to crack. We expect worse to come as more new capacity is introduced over the next two years.
The stock has been buoyed by M&A euphoria over consumer-related stocks, masking its weakening fundamentals. But we caution that de-rating could be pronounced once the euphoria dies down. Maintain Underperform, with no changes to EPS and target price (16x CY14 P/E, 8-year mean).
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 1,566 107.7 44.47 0.07 56.2% 29.44 0.030 1.29% 16.52 NA 172% 4.76 17.7% Dec-11A 1,702 130.0 60.59 0.10 36.2% 23.10 0.039 1.69% 14.60 53.05 169% 4.72 20.5% Dec-12F 1,665 127.0 53.84 0.09 (11.1%) 25.99 0.035 1.53% 14.61 21.22 140% 4.27 17.2% 0% 0.96 Dec-13F 1,710 132.4 55.98 0.09 4.0% 25.00 0.037 1.62% 13.82 29.48 120% 3.87 16.2% 0% 0.92 Dec-14F 1,762 141.3 61.27 0.10 9.5% 22.84 0.040 1.75% 12.75 26.78 101% 3.50 16.1% 0% 0.85
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
2.80 2.82
Current
1.92
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Petra Foods
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 19.1 162.5 477.9 55.9 715.4 280.4 3.3 21.0 27.2 331.8 374.4 195.6 16.9 586.9 146.7 16.7 163.4 0.0 750.3 296.6 0.3 296.9 Dec-12F 62.5 183.1 416.2 55.9 717.8 300.3 3.3 21.0 27.2 351.8 374.4 186.5 16.9 577.9 146.7 16.7 163.4 0.0 741.3 327.9 0.3 328.2 Dec-13F 88.0 188.1 427.4 55.9 759.4 297.6 3.3 21.0 27.2 349.1 374.4 191.5 16.9 582.9 146.7 16.7 163.4 0.0 746.3 361.9 0.3 362.2 Dec-14F 116.7 193.8 440.6 55.9 807.0 293.0 3.3 21.0 27.2 344.5 374.4 196.8 16.9 588.1 146.7 16.7 163.4 0.0 751.6 399.6 0.3 400.0
61 61 61
54 54 54
56 56 56
61 61 61
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 130.0 (0.4) (1.0) Dec-12F 127.0 0.0 32.0 Dec-13F 132.4 0.0 (11.2) Dec-14F 141.3 0.0 (13.6)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 8.7% 20.7% 7.64% (0.82) 0.49 3.86 23.2% 39.1% 35.11 121.0 46.66 10.8% 12.7% Dec-12F (2.2%) (2.3%) 7.63% (0.75) 0.54 3.72 24.0% 39.7% 37.99 115.1 49.19 9.9% 11.6% Dec-13F 2.7% 4.3% 7.74% (0.71) 0.59 3.83 24.0% 40.4% 39.62 105.5 47.27 10.3% 11.5% Dec-14F 3.1% 6.7% 8.02% (0.66) 0.65 4.09 24.0% 39.9% 39.55 105.5 47.21 10.9% 11.8%
22.8 (27.4) (22.3) 101.7 (52.4) 0.0 0.0 1.0 (51.3) (24.0) 0.0 0.0 (21.8) (27.4) (73.2)
0.0 (26.1) (17.0) 115.9 (50.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (50.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (22.5) 0.0 (22.5)
0.0 (26.1) (17.7) 77.5 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (22.0) 0.0 (22.0)
0.0 (26.1) (19.3) 82.3 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (30.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (23.5) 0.0 (23.5)
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv) ASP (% chg, tertiary prod/serv) Unit sales grth (%,tertiary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, tertiary prod/serv) Unit raw mat ASP (%chg,main) Total Export Sales Growth (%) Export Sales/total Sales (%) Dec-11A N/A 5.6% N/A N/A 16.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A 1.9% N/A N/A 12.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A 0.0% N/A N/A 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A 0.0% N/A N/A 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
143
Hospitals SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,083m
S$1,323m
US$0.67m
S$0.82m
45.0%
534.3 m shares
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 239.1 60.0 45.27 0.09 18.9% 27.93 0.035 1.44% 19.69 24.63 (29.5%) 4.44 16.9% Dec-11A 272.8 66.8 50.40 0.10 10.2% 25.28 0.040 1.65% 18.67 NA (8.4%) 3.86 16.2% Dec-12F 329.6 75.5 54.61 0.10 7.6% 23.52 0.040 1.65% 16.64 12.71 (7.8%) 3.52 15.6% 0% 1.04 Dec-13F 409.4 94.5 65.59 0.12 20.1% 19.65 0.040 1.65% 13.19 66.79 (10.3%) 3.14 16.9% 0% 1.06 Dec-14F 482.7 115.2 82.79 0.16 26.2% 15.57 0.040 1.65% 10.54 26.12 (15.9%) 2.73 18.8% 0% 1.13
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
3.52
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 49.7 31.9 5.1 0.0 86.7 141.9 0.0 0.3 199.7 341.9 5.5 59.8 11.1 76.3 16.0 1.6 17.6 0.0 93.9 334.0 0.7 334.7 Dec-12F 120.8 35.0 5.4 0.0 161.2 187.9 0.0 0.3 201.3 389.5 4.0 77.0 12.9 93.9 88.0 2.2 90.2 0.0 184.1 365.9 0.7 366.6 Dec-13F 104.4 43.5 5.7 0.0 153.6 228.0 0.0 0.3 204.7 433.1 4.0 95.6 15.3 114.9 58.0 3.0 61.0 0.0 175.9 410.1 0.7 410.8 Dec-14F 118.4 51.3 5.9 0.0 175.7 268.1 0.0 0.3 207.9 476.3 5.0 112.8 19.0 136.8 38.0 4.0 42.0 0.0 178.8 472.4 0.7 473.2
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 66.8 4.5 7.2 7.2 (0.3) (7.6) 77.8 (114.5) 0.2 0.0 (114.3) (1.1) 0.0 0.0 (8.8) (3.7) (13.6) Dec-12F 75.5 15.6 8.0 (4.6) (1.1) (8.8) 84.5 (54.0) 0.0 0.0 (54.0) 70.5 0.0 0.0 (21.4) 0.0 49.2 Dec-13F 94.5 12.3 13.9 (4.6) (0.7) (12.0) 103.3 (54.0) 0.0 0.0 (54.0) (30.0) 0.0 0.0 (21.4) 0.0 (51.4) Dec-14F 115.2 12.8 13.9 (4.6) (0.5) (14.4) 122.3 (54.0) 0.0 0.0 (54.0) (19.0) 0.0 0.0 (21.4) 0.0 (40.4)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 14.1% 11.3% 24.5% 0.05 0.63 236.2 14.8% 42.4% 38.75 N/A N/A 29.2% 17.9% Dec-12F 20.8% 13.1% 22.9% 0.05 0.69 62.5 18.0% 39.1% 37.14 N/A N/A 21.9% 16.7% Dec-13F 24.2% 25.2% 23.1% 0.08 0.77 110.7 18.0% 32.6% 35.02 N/A N/A 23.7% 17.4% Dec-14F 17.9% 21.9% 23.9% 0.14 0.89 205.3 18.0% 25.8% 35.86 N/A N/A 27.3% 20.6%
Key Drivers
No. Of Patient Admissions (m P.a.) Revenue Per Patient Bed (S$) Occupancy Rate Of Beds (%) Average Length Of Stay (days) Beds Opened (units) Bed Turnover A Year (x) % of fgn patients to patient load Dec-11A N/A N/A 65.0% N/A 220.0 N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A 62.0% N/A 220.0 N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A 65.0% N/A 250.0 N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A 68.0% N/A 250.0 N/A N/A
145
Airports SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
SATS Ltd
SATS SP / SIAT.SI Current S$2.77 S$2.82 S$2.82 1.7%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,515m
S$3,075m
US$2.11m
S$2.66m
56.0%
1,109 m shares
Margin recovery
The worst of margin pressures appears to be over for SATS. Higher airline-passenger volumes should support its organic growth, while TFKs turnaround would be an added booster.
Improved productivity has translated into margin stability, which in turn should be supportive of earnings in an environment of revenue growth. Dividend yields of 4.6% offer valuation support, we believe. Maintain Neutral, with no changes to EPS or target price (14.4x CY14 P/E, 8-year mean). volume growth (+10% YTD) would translate into profit growth.
Margin stability
We expect ongoing cost management to stabilise SATSs margins, which had previously slipped on cost inflation. The automation of processes and initiatives to improve yields should bring costs under control, which means passenger
Dividend support
While earnings growth may not be overly exciting at a forecast 3-year EPS CAGR of 9%, SATS should be supported by decent 4.6% dividend yields.
Vol m
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 1,358 246.3 179.4 0.16 (2.2%) 17.71 0.17 6.14% 12.79 14.10 (7.4%) 2.02 11.9% Mar-12A 1,685 266.4 181.0 0.16 1.9% 17.35 0.26 9.39% 11.10 8.29 (19.4%) 2.03 12.1% Mar-13F 1,890 298.6 187.5 0.17 2.6% 16.90 0.12 4.27% 10.01 12.26 (18.7%) 2.18 12.9% (0%) 0.98 Mar-14F 1,975 319.9 210.8 0.19 12.4% 15.03 0.13 4.80% 9.14 16.33 (21.6%) 2.06 14.6% 0% 1.02 Mar-15F 2,063 334.3 228.0 0.21 8.2% 13.90 0.14 5.20% 8.58 15.53 (23.9%) 1.96 14.9% 0% 1.03
Aug-12
2.77 2.85
Current
Target
2.82
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
SATS Ltd
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Mar-12A 472 294 44 22 831 654 0 213 424 1,291 27 203 42 272 131 103 234 0 506 1,509 107 1,616 Mar-13F 441 283 57 22 804 617 0 213 470 1,299 27 283 42 353 131 103 234 0 587 1,409 108 1,516 Mar-14F 503 296 59 22 881 585 0 213 517 1,315 27 296 42 365 131 103 234 0 599 1,488 109 1,597 Mar-15F 559 310 62 22 953 558 0 213 567 1,338 27 310 42 379 131 103 234 0 613 1,569 110 1,678
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Mar-12A 266.4 (41.2) (67.9) (44.6) 95.6 (0.1) (40.3) 167.9 (64.3) 263.4 25.4 224.5 (10.3) 0.1 (188.4) (15.8) (214.4) Mar-13F 298.6 (45.3) 77.5 (63.1) 107.3 (2.1) (47.1) 325.8 (70.0) 0.0 1.3 (68.7) 1.5 (0.0) (288.3) 0.0 (286.8) Mar-14F 319.9 (47.6) (2.5) (55.2) 101.7 (2.1) (53.0) 261.3 (70.0) 0.0 1.3 (68.7) 1.5 0.0 (131.2) 0.0 (129.7) Mar-15F 334.3 (50.0) (2.7) (48.0) 96.9 (2.0) (57.3) 271.3 (70.0) 0.0 1.3 (68.7) 1.5 (0.0) (147.6) 0.0 (146.1)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Mar-12A 24.1% 8.2% 15.8% 0.28 1.36 1,697 16.5% 170% 64.81 17.67 83.8 8.4% 9.5% Mar-13F 12.1% 12.1% 15.8% 0.26 1.27 92 20.0% 70% 55.74 15.29 74.1 11.4% 11.2% Mar-14F 4.5% 7.1% 16.2% 0.31 1.34 107 20.0% 70% 53.57 17.01 85.0 13.6% 12.8% Mar-15F 4.5% 4.5% 16.2% 0.36 1.41 117 20.0% 70% 53.57 17.01 85.0 14.6% 13.3%
Key Drivers
(S$) Int'l Passenger Traffic Growth (%) Domestic Pax Traffic Growth (%) International Flight Traffic Growth (%) Domestic Flight Traffic Growth (%) Int'l Pax Service Charge Dom Pax Serv Charge Unit Meals Produced (% Change) Mar-12A N/A N/A 11.0% N/A N/A N/A 5.7% Mar-13F N/A N/A 10.0% N/A N/A N/A 8.0% Mar-14F N/A N/A 4.5% N/A N/A N/A 4.5% Mar-15F N/A N/A 4.5% N/A N/A N/A 4.5%
147
Conglomerate SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
Sembcorp Industries
SCI SP / SCIL.SI Current S$4.98 S$6.26 S$6.26 25.6%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$7,281m
S$8,894m
US$12.02m
S$14.75m
50.0%
1,776 m shares
Change of tides
With utilities accounting for more than half of its business, we believe that SCI is able to counter the cyclicality of the marine business in the next two years given the healthy prospects from new projects in the pipeline.
We maintain our Outperform rating and SOP-based target price. Key catalysts include stronger international operations, mainly China, Vietnam and the Middle East.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 8,764 1,442 792.9 0.43 11.8% 11.59 0.19 3.86% 5.21 7.51 (37.5%) 2.33 21.5% Dec-11A 9,047 1,331 809.3 0.45 5.9% 10.97 0.20 3.92% 6.17 70.00 (18.2%) 2.15 20.4% Dec-12F 9,929 1,342 772.8 0.44 (4.2%) 11.46 0.19 3.87% 6.26 22.78 (15.3%) 1.93 17.8% 0% 1.05 Dec-13F 10,184 1,407 760.4 0.43 (1.6%) 11.63 0.19 3.81% 6.22 23.43 (11.9%) 1.75 15.8% 0% 0.95 Dec-14F 11,199 1,554 855.7 0.48 12.5% 10.34 0.21 4.29% 5.80 14.69 (12.1%) 1.58 16.1% 0% 0.96
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
6.26
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Sembcorp Industries
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 2,995 1,090 1,078 53 5,217 4,250 1,490 332 464 6,536 186 3,124 387 3,697 1,856 958 2,814 0 6,512 4,115 1,126 5,241 Dec-12F 3,163 1,192 1,192 53 5,600 5,022 1,602 332 464 7,419 186 3,475 337 3,998 2,056 958 3,014 0 7,013 4,581 1,425 6,006 Dec-13F 3,256 1,225 1,218 53 5,752 5,854 1,715 332 464 8,365 186 3,540 348 4,074 2,256 958 3,214 0 7,289 5,040 1,787 6,828 Dec-14F 3,579 1,345 1,342 53 6,319 6,822 1,715 332 464 9,333 186 3,906 372 4,464 2,456 958 3,414 0 7,879 5,600 2,174 7,774
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 1,331 (184) Dec-12F 1,342 137 Dec-13F 1,407 6 Dec-14F 1,554 122
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 3.23% (7.7%) 14.7% 0.54 2.32 16.70 9.8% 37.8% 37.91 48.67 122.8 34.5% 16.8% Dec-12F 9.75% 0.8% 13.5% 0.52 2.58 15.89 17.0% 39.0% 42.05 50.62 127.7 24.2% 15.2% Dec-13F 2.56% 4.9% 13.8% 0.46 2.84 15.86 17.0% 39.0% 43.30 52.24 131.2 21.5% 14.1% Dec-14F 9.97% 10.4% 13.9% 0.53 3.15 16.86 17.0% 39.0% 41.88 50.47 127.0 20.2% 14.0%
Key Drivers
Rev. growth (%, main biz.) EBITDA mgns (%, main biz.) Rev. as % of total (main biz.) EBITDA as % of total (main biz.) Rev. growth (%, 2ndary biz.) EBITDA mgns (%, 2ndary biz.) Rev. as % of total (2ndary biz.) EBITDA as % of total (2ndary biz.) Rev. growth (%, tertiary biz.) EBITDA mgns (%, tertiary biz.) Rev.as % of total (tertiary biz.) EBITDA as % of total (tertiary biz.) Dec-11A 13.1% -3.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F 13.6% -1.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F 4.9% -0.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F 3.6% 18.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
149
Sembcorp Marine
SMM SP / SCMN.SI Current S$4.40 S$5.01 S$5.01 13.8%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$7,519m
S$9,185m
US$19.55m
S$23.98m
37.2%
2,088 m shares
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 4,555 1,026 860.3 0.42 22.2% 10.56 0.36 8.12% 5.82 7 (108%) 3.52 38.4% Dec-11A 3,960 823 751.9 0.36 (12.7%) 12.13 0.25 5.69% 8.35 NA (78%) 3.77 30.0% Dec-12F 4,343 718 591.9 0.29 (21.1%) 15.40 0.17 3.90% 11.34 NA (23%) 3.47 23.5% 0% 1.07 Dec-13F 4,320 668 555.4 0.27 (6.2%) 16.39 0.16 3.66% 13.18 5,433 3% 3.20 20.3% 0% 0.86 Dec-14F 5,119 839 690.3 0.33 24.3% 13.19 0.20 4.55% 10.99 37 17% 2.92 23.1% 0% 0.89
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
5.01
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Sembcorp Marine
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 1,990 421 926 62 3,399 1,034 507 37 74 1,653 35 1,786 579 2,400 0 60 60 85 2,546 2,414 92 2,506 Dec-12F Dec-13F Dec-14F 1,275 954 894 483 480 569 1,448 1,440 1,706 62 62 62 3,267 2,936 3,232 1,803 2,688 3,369 565 626 689 37 37 37 74 74 74 2,479 3,425 4,169 235 435 635 1,758 473 2,467 400 60 460 85 3,012 2,624 110 2,734 1,749 464 2,649 600 60 660 85 3,394 2,846 121 2,967 2,071 492 3,198 800 60 860 85 4,143 3,122 136 3,258
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 823 (120) Dec-12F Dec-13F Dec-14F 718 668 839 (611) 1 (33)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (13.1%) (19.7%) 20.8% 0.94 1.17 295.9 10.6% 88% 26.46 101.8 196.0 (110%) 29.5% Dec-12F Dec-13F Dec-14F 9.7% (0.5%) 18.5% (12.8%) (6.9%) 25.5% 16.5% 15.5% 16.4% 0.31 (0.04) (0.26) 1.27 1.38 1.51 219.4 201.6 259.0 16.5% 16.5% 16.5% 77% 77% 77% 38.07 40.66 37.39 124.5 150.2 139.1 184.9 181.5 168.0 335% 35% 29% 22.2% 16.5% 17.7%
Key Drivers
Outstanding Orderbook (S$m) Order Book Wins (S$m) Orderbook Depletion (S$m) Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$) No. Of Ships (unit) Average Utilisation Rate (%) Dec-11A N/A 3,500.0 4,410.7 N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F Dec-13F Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A 10,240.0 4,500.0 4,500.0 4,342.7 4,320.5 5,119.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
151
Retail SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$571.4m
S$698.7m
US$0.70m
S$0.87m
64.6%
1,384 m shares
Forging ahead
This nimble and battle-hardened local supermarket operator has emerged from price skirmishes at the start of the year to forge ahead with the opening of eight new stores in FY12. As these stores mature, FY13 could shape up to be a good year.
We expect the maturing of these stores to spur its earnings growth. Our estimates are tweaked on housekeeping matters. Maintain Outperform with our target price still at 18x forward P/E, a 20% discount to Dairy Farm on account of its lower profitability. Catalysts should include strong same-store-sales growth, in our view. suitable retail space, though store expansion could slow down
90% payouts
The business generates free cash flow as working capital is supplier-financed. A 90% payout would translate to a 5.3% CY13 yield.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 628.4 37.04 42.64 0.030 18.6% 16.74 0.00% 13.83 11.74 (99.5%) 9.01 38.7% Dec-11A 578.4 37.18 27.26 0.022 (26.6%) 21.97 0.020 3.94% 12.94 NA (82.3%) 4.19 25.7% Dec-12F 642.6 42.13 40.85 0.023 5.3% 20.47 0.027 5.26% 12.57 12.43 (90.9%) 4.58 21.4% 0.486% 0.95 Dec-13F 723.2 53.17 39.76 0.029 23.3% 17.57 0.026 5.12% 10.48 17.96 (90.5%) 4.47 25.8% (0.053%) 1.06 Dec-14F 791.3 58.22 43.61 0.032 9.7% 16.02 0.028 5.62% 9.40 14.25 (94.2%) 4.35 27.5% 0.068% 1.09
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.51 0.51
Current
Target
0.58
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 122.1 7.0 36.4 3.6 169.1 72.1 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 72.1 0.0 83.4 8.4 91.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 92.9 148.3 0.0 148 3 Dec-12F 138.5 8.8 41.3 3.6 192.2 71.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.7 0.0 102.0 8.4 110.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 111.5 152.4 0.0 152 4 Dec-13F 141.6 9.9 46.1 3.6 201.1 74.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.6 0.0 109.9 8.4 118.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 119.4 156.4 0.0 156 4 Dec-14F 151.4 10.8 50.3 3.6 216.2 71.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.1 0.0 117.0 8.4 125.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 126.5 160.8 0.0 160 8
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 37.18 22.74 Dec-12F 42.13 11.87 Dec-13F 53.17 2.06 Dec-14F 58.22 1.93
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (8.0%) 0.4% 6.43% 0.10 0.12 492.4 20.3% 90% 3.68 25.45 53.35 2874% 26.3% Dec-12F 11.1% 13.3% 6.56% 0.10 0.11 N/A 17.4% 121% 4.49 28.30 55.42 104% 23.0% Dec-13F 12.5% 26.2% 7.35% 0.10 0.11 N/A 17.5% 90% 4.72 28.46 47.43 245% 28.9% Dec-14F 9.4% 9.5% 7.36% 0.11 0.12 N/A 17.5% 90% 4.79 28.72 47.87 256% 31.0%
(26.58) (0.06) (5.15) 28.12 (23.62) 0.00 0.00 (19.89) (43.51) (22.29) 78.12 0.00 (0.93) (3.25) 51.64
14.55 0.77 (8.58) 60.73 (7.63) 0.00 0.00 0.00 (7.63) 0.00 0.00 0.00 (36.74) (0.77) (37.52)
3.30 0.56 (8.43) 50.66 (11.75) 0.00 0.00 0.00 (11.75) 0.00 0.00 0.00 (35.80) (0.56) (36.36)
3.30 0.59 (9.25) 54.79 (5.75) 0.00 0.00 0.00 (5.75) 0.00 0.00 0.00 (39.24) (0.59) (39.82)
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) No. of POS (main prod/serv) SSS grth (%, main prod/serv) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) No. of POS (2ndary prod/serv) SSS grth (%, 2ndary prrod/serv) Dec-11A N/A -8.0% N/A 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A 11.1% N/A 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A 12.5% N/A 2.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A 9.4% N/A 3.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
153
SIA Engineering
SIE SP / SIAE.SI Current S$4.29 S$4.70 S$4.70 9.6%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$3,872m
S$4,730m
US$0.79m
S$0.98m
19.0%
1,091 m shares
Heavier checks
SIA Engineerings hangars have been booked out thanks to more planned heavy checks (C2 and D) and expansion by Asia-Pac low-cost carriers. New fleets of aircraft acquired four years ago are gradually entering the phase of more intensive checks. In 1H13, there were 22 D checks and 49 C checks vs. eight D checks and 54 C checks in 1H12. The C checks in 1H13 included C2 checks for A380s which are heavier than normal D checks. To elaborate, a normal D check ranges from S$3m to S$5m while a normal C check offers S$1m in revenue though C2 checks for A380 could command about S$5m. The A380 checks (slightly different from normal checks) are categorised into
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 1,107 177.1 258.5 0.24 8.81% 18.03 0.30 7.03% 20.94 27.08 (43.6%) 3.59 20.1%
Positive guidance
Management expects demand for its core businesses to be sustained in the near term, despite macro risks.
Price Close
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
4.70
Current Target
Mar-12A 1,170 170.6 269.1 0.25 3.33% 17.45 0.21 4.91% 22.32 45.64 (38.7%) 3.75 21.0%
Mar-13F 1,210 177.7 286.5 0.26 6.17% 16.43 0.22 5.17% 21.20 42.09 (37.4%) 3.59 22.3% 0% 1.02
Mar-14F 1,263 185.5 306.8 0.28 7.09% 15.35 0.24 5.54% 20.16 56.61 (33.8%) 3.43 22.9% 0% 1.05
Mar-15F 1,328 192.4 326.6 0.30 6.45% 14.42 0.25 5.90% 19.28 55.55 (30.2%) 3.27 23.2% 0% 1.04
Vol m
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
SIA Engineering
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Mar-12A 498 108 118 97 820 309 433 38 0 779 2 264 27 293 0 26 26 0 320 1,254 26 1,280 Mar-13F 502 112 117 97 828 309 484 38 0 831 1 258 36 295 0 25 25 0 320 1,310 29 1,339 Mar-14F 476 116 124 97 812 349 541 38 0 928 1 270 38 310 0 25 25 0 334 1,374 32 1,406 Mar-15F 446 122 131 97 796 389 604 38 0 1,031 1 284 41 326 0 26 26 0 352 1,439 35 1,475
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Mar-12A 170.6 (10.9) Mar-13F 177.7 (9.8) Mar-14F 185.5 1.9 Mar-15F 192.4 (0.1)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Mar-12A 5.7% (3.7%) 14.6% 0.45 1.14 N/A 10.3% 86% 33.35 143.3 318.5 29.7% 10.2% Mar-13F 3.4% 4.1% 14.7% 0.46 1.19 N/A 11.0% 85% 33.18 165.3 367.7 30.2% 10.6% Mar-14F 4.4% 4.4% 14.7% 0.43 1.25 N/A 11.0% 85% 32.93 149.0 326.8 31.5% 10.6% Mar-15F 5.2% 3.7% 14.5% 0.41 1.31 N/A 11.0% 85% 32.71 146.2 318.1 29.7% 10.3%
6.2 0.0 (34.9) 131.0 (28.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (28.8) 0.7 0.0 0.0 (327.4) 141.1 (185.6)
16.5 0.0 (31.1) 153.3 (40.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (40.0) (1.4) 0.0 0.0 (230.4) 122.3 (109.5)
(28.4) 0.0 (35.8) 123.2 (40.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (40.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (243.5) 134.3 (109.2)
(29.2) 0.0 (38.3) 124.8 (40.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (40.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (260.8) 146.2 (114.6)
Key Drivers
Rev. growth (%, main biz.) Rev. growth (%, 2ndary biz.) Mar-12A 4.5% 4.5% Mar-13F 4.5% 4.0% Mar-14F 5.0% 1.3% Mar-15F 5.0% 2.6%
155
IT Services SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$824.8m
S$1,008m
US$0.18m
S$0.22m
20.6%
297.6 m shares
Renfred Tay
T (65) 62108692 E renfred.tay@cimb.com
Solid fundamentals
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (RMm) Net Profit (RMm) Core EPS (RM) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) Price To Sales (x) DPS (RM) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Jun-11A 305.4 115.3 0.06 96.3% 19.46 8.03 0.028 2.41% 15.17 17.78 (32.6%) 11.53 67.0% Jun-12A 400.0 162.3 0.08 29.2% 15.05 6.15 0.047 4.02% 12.23 23.29 (31.6%) 8.27 64.0% Jun-13F 416.3 179.1 0.08 8.4% 13.89 5.91 0.051 4.37% 11.08 14.52 (42.3%) 6.66 53.1% 0.99 Jun-14F 470.2 186.3 0.09 5.2% 13.19 5.23 0.053 4.55% 10.25 13.64 (50.6%) 5.54 45.8% 0.94 Jun-15F 528.5 210.6 0.10 13.0% 11.67 4.65 0.060 5.14% 8.85 12.14 (56.9%) 4.66 43.3% 1.01
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.47 0.48
Current
Target
0.59
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(RMm) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Jun-12A 97.6 153.2 2.6 253.5 10.7 64.5 70.8 0.9 146.9 1.0 66.6 24.5 92.1 2.5 2.2 4.7 6.0 102.8 297.6 0.0 297.6 Jun-13F 159.6 163.7 2.6 325.9 9.6 64.5 62.5 0.9 137.6 1.0 58.1 24.5 83.6 2.5 2.2 4.7 6.0 94.3 369.2 0.0 369.2 Jun-14F 228.0 181.3 2.6 411.9 9.0 64.5 55.4 0.9 129.8 1.0 61.9 24.5 87.4 2.5 2.2 4.7 6.0 98.1 443.8 0.0 443.8 Jun-15F 304.1 200.0 2.6 506.7 8.6 64.5 49.5 0.9 123.4 1.0 66.0 24.5 91.6 2.5 2.2 4.7 6.0 102.2 528.0 0.0 528.0
Cash Flow
(RMm) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Jun-12A 188.1 (2.1) (37.6) 2.1 1.5 2.0 0.4 (15.5) 138.9 (1.2) (0.5) (33.5) 2.3 (32.9) (0.4) 0.0 (3.1) (78.1) (0.5) (82.1) Jun-13F 202.1 0.0 (19.0) 0.0 0.2 6.0 0.8 (18.2) 171.8 (0.7) 0.0 0.0 (1.7) (2.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (107.5) 0.0 (107.5) Jun-14F 211.5 0.0 (13.9) 0.0 0.0 4.0 1.7 (20.7) 182.7 (0.8) 0.0 0.0 (1.7) (2.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (111.8) 0.0 (111.8) Jun-15F 236.5 0.0 (14.5) 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.7 (23.4) 205.2 (0.9) 0.0 0.0 (1.9) (2.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (126.3) 0.0 (126.3)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (RM) BVPS (RM) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Jun-12A 31.0% 23.5% 47.0% 0.04 0.14 666.9 9.8% 61.1% 111.3 50.84 238% 67.8% Jun-13F 4.1% 7.4% 48.5% 0.07 0.18 839.7 9.2% 60.0% 109.8 59.06 129% 55.9% Jun-14F 12.9% 4.7% 45.0% 0.11 0.21 831.3 10.0% 60.0% 106.2 47.75 128% 48.9% Jun-15F 12.4% 11.8% 44.7% 0.14 0.25 821.5 10.0% 60.0% 106.4 47.87 140% 46.5%
Key Drivers
ASP Change (%, Main Product) Unit sales growth (%, main prod) No. Of Lines (main Product) Rev per line (US$, main prod) ASP chg (%, 2ndary prod) Unit sales grth (%, 2ndary prod) No. Of Lines (secondary Product) Rev per line (US$, 2ndary prod) Jun-12A N/A 35.0% N/A N/A N/A 12.4% N/A N/A Jun-13F N/A 8.8% N/A N/A N/A 13.2% N/A N/A Jun-14F N/A 13.6% N/A N/A N/A 13.2% N/A N/A Jun-15F N/A 12.5% N/A N/A N/A 13.2% N/A N/A
157
Airlines SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
Singapore Airlines
SIA SP / SIA.SI Current S$10.50 S$11.00 S$11.00 4.8%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$10,071m
S$12,303m
US$5.94m
S$7.29m
45.4%
1,856 m shares
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 14,525 2,983 1,092 1.05 465% 10.04 0% 2.18 3.66 (39.9%) 0.89 9.10% Mar-12A 14,858 1,913 336 0.30 (72%) 35.76 0% 4.20 NA (32.2%) 0.98 2.62% Mar-13F 15,333 1,985 438 0.37 24% 28.94 0% 4.07 29.09 (30.9%) 0.96 3.36% 0.115% 1.01 Mar-14F 16,091 2,445 810 0.67 85% 15.68 0% 3.20 24.43 (30.5%) 0.93 6.04% 0.000% 1.08 Mar-15F 16,958 2,720 980 0.82 21% 12.95 0% 3.16 NA (23.3%) 0.90 7.10% 0.000% 1.06
Vol m
10.50 11.10
Current
Target
11.00
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Singapore Airlines
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Mar-12A 5,328 1,402 306 170 7,206 13,381 1,030 426 0 14,837 0 67 2,885 2,312 5,265 1,011 551 1,562 2,029 8,856 12,893 294 13,187 Mar-13F 5,219 1,568 411 234 7,431 13,285 1,164 462 0 14,911 0 62 2,992 2,277 5,331 990 531 1,521 1,985 8,837 13,184 321 13,505 Mar-14F 5,299 1,657 406 235 7,598 13,594 1,363 490 0 15,448 0 56 3,140 2,360 5,556 971 534 1,505 1,985 9,046 13,614 385 14,000 Mar-15F 4,359 1,708 391 234 6,692 14,731 1,563 518 0 16,812 0 38 3,082 2,450 5,570 954 537 1,491 1,985 9,045 14,010 449 14,459
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Mar-12A 1,913 -97 -5 -16 -18 -24 -51 1,703 -1,641 495 -623 189 -1,580 -961 -206 -1,631 -87 -2,884 Mar-13F 1,985 10 -200 -1 -14 5 -94 1,693 -1,718 228 189 65 -1,236 -21 -7 -228 -51 -307 Mar-14F 2,445 0 145 0 3 7 -179 2,421 -2,200 300 0 24 -1,876 -25 21 -400 -60 -464 Mar-15F 2,720 0 -3 0 3 10 -214 2,516 -3,100 300 0 24 -2,776 -35 21 -606 -60 -680
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Mar-12A 2.3% (35.9%) 12.9% 3.54 10.75 4.06 11.5% 435% 34.92 10.92 95.5 2.47% 2.01% Mar-13F 3.2% 3.8% 12.9% 3.47 10.99 8.41 15.8% 43% 35.35 11.84 97.0 3.20% 2.75% Mar-14F 4.9% 23.1% 15.2% 3.56 11.35 11.94 17.0% 49% 36.58 13.06 98.0 6.32% 5.30% Mar-15F 5.4% 11.3% 16.0% 2.81 11.68 15.14 17.0% 62% 36.21 12.23 95.4 7.60% 6.23%
159
Singapore Exchange
SGX SP / SGXL.SI Current S$6.70 S$7.26 S$7.26 8.3%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$5,862m
S$7,160m
US$8.87m
S$10.90m
76.0%
1,071 m shares
Daniel Lau
T (65) 62108614 E daniel.lau@cimb.com
Vol m
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Aug-12
6.70 7.29
Current
|
Target
7.26
Jun-11A 660.7 409.4 294.9 0.29 (3.39%) 23.18 27.00 403% 15.60 22.26 (93.0%) 8.71 37.7%
Jun-12A 647.9 405.1 291.8 0.28 (2.32%) 23.79 27.00 403% 15.82 23.83 (91.7%) 8.61 36.4%
Jun-13F 663.7 414.7 312.8 0.29 3.68% 22.94 29.30 437% 15.47 23.41 (91.3%) 8.66 37.6% 0% 0.99
Jun-14F 694.4 440.9 335.0 0.31 7.09% 21.42 31.30 467% 14.53 21.83 (91.2%) 8.55 40.2% 0% 0.95
Jun-15F 713.8 453.5 345.9 0.32 3.26% 20.75 32.30 482% 14.12 21.34 (90.8%) 8.50 41.1% 0% 0.86
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Singapore Exchange
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
Jun-12A 647.9 647.9 405.1 (41.2) 363.9 6.2 (2.7) 0.0 367.4 (12.1) 355.3 (63.5) 291.8 0.0 0.0 Jun-13F 663.7 663.7 414.7 (41.5) 373.1 6.5 (2.4) 0.0 377.2 0.0 377.2 (64.4) 312.8 0.0 0.0 Jun-14F 694.4 694.4 440.9 (41.5) 399.3 6.9 (2.2) 0.0 404.0 0.0 404.0 (69.0) 335.0 0.0 0.0 Jun-15F 713.8 713.8 453.5 (41.5) 411.9 7.2 (2.0) 0.0 417.2 0.0 417.2 (71.2) 345.9 0.0 0.0 (S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Jun-12A 764 779 0 35 1,578 145 6 0 0 151 0 796 78 874 0 7 7 16 896 833 0 833
Jun-13F 757 782 0 35 1,574 153 6 0 0 160 0 811 72 883 0 7 7 16 905 829 0 829
Jun-14F 766 818 0 35 1,619 162 6 0 0 168 0 848 77 926 0 7 7 16 948 839 0 839
Jun-15F 767 841 0 35 1,643 170 6 0 0 177 0 872 81 953 0 7 7 16 975 844 0 844
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Jun-12A 405.1 (16.4) 0.0 21.9 (4.8) (56.6) 349.2 (50.4) 0.0 (1.3) 3.6 (48.0) 0.0 (4.3) 0.0 (288.3) 0.0 (292.7) Jun-13F 414.7 6.3 0.0 0.0 (6.5) (64.4) 350.0 (50.0) 0.0 0.0 6.5 (43.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (313.8) 0.0 (313.8) Jun-14F 440.9 6.9 0.0 0.0 (6.9) (69.0) 371.9 (50.0) 0.0 0.0 6.9 (43.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (335.3) 0.0 (335.3) Jun-15F 453.5 4.1 0.0 0.0 (7.2) (71.2) 379.1 (50.0) 0.0 0.0 7.2 (42.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (346.0) 0.0 (346.0) Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
Jun-12A (1.93%) (1.05%) 62.5% 0.71 0.78 N/A 17.9% 95% 487.6 N/A N/A 519% 43.9%
Jun-13F 2.43% 2.37% 62.5% 0.71 0.77 N/A 17.1% 100% 429.4 N/A N/A 436% 44.9%
Jun-14F 4.63% 6.32% 63.5% 0.71 0.78 N/A 17.1% 100% 420.5 N/A N/A 453% 47.8%
Jun-15F 2.79% 2.86% 63.5% 0.72 0.79 N/A 17.1% 100% 424.2 N/A N/A 459% 48.9%
Key Drivers
Total Traded Value (S$m) Trading Days In The Period Avg Daily Traded Value (S$m) Securities Clearing Fees (S$m) Effective Clearing Rate (%) Derivatives Contracts Traded (S$m) Derivatives Clearing Revenue (S$m) Avg Fees Per Contract (S$) Other Revenue (S$m)
|
161
Singapore Land
SL SP / SLND.SI Current S$6.79 S$8.44 S$8.44 24.4%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,291m
S$2,801m
US$0.38m
S$0.46m
30.0%
412.5 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 527.2 224.0 661.7 0.46 144% 14.70 0.20 2.95% 15.74 35.53 4.34% 0.68 4.97% Dec-11A 615.3 273.6 330.7 0.54 17% 12.61 0.20 2.95% 13.03 42.21 4.06% 0.64 5.22% Dec-12F 594.3 249.7 205.6 0.50 (7%) 13.62 0.20 2.95% 15.25 28.36 8.43% 0.62 4.62% 0% 0.99 Dec-13F 506.8 257.5 234.6 0.57 14% 11.94 0.20 2.95% 13.98 40.65 3.79% 0.60 5.12% 0% 1.15 Dec-14F 606.1 274.4 256.1 0.62 9% 10.93 0.20 2.95% 12.55 25.35 0.36% 0.58 5.40% 0% 1.20
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
6.79 7.13
Current
Target
8.44
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Singapore Land
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 66 40 1 424 531 369 5,111 0 0 5,480 237 212 41 490 30 543 573 0 1,063 4,384 564 4,948 Dec-12F 80 42 2 770 894 340 5,089 0 0 5,429 451 153 49 654 57 525 582 0 1,236 4,507 580 5,086 Dec-13F 63 36 1 697 798 312 5,031 0 0 5,344 233 131 42 406 30 447 477 0 883 4,659 599 5,258 Dec-14F 89 43 2 742 876 285 5,143 0 0 5,429 97 156 50 303 12 535 547 0 851 4,833 622 5,454
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 273.6 (9.7) Dec-12F 249.7 (400.0) Dec-13F 257.5 49.9 Dec-14F 274.4 (18.9)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 16.7% 22% 44.5% (0.49) 10.63 157.4 14.1% 40.4% 23.73 N/A N/A 44.3% 5.15% Dec-12F (3.4%) (9%) 42.0% (1.04) 10.93 153.1 14.1% 40.1% 25.42 N/A N/A 40.3% 4.37% Dec-13F (14.7%) 3% 50.8% (0.48) 11.30 83.3 14.1% 35.2% 28.24 N/A N/A 25.5% 4.42% Dec-14F 19.6% 7% 45.3% (0.05) 11.72 173.2 14.1% 32.2% 23.87 N/A N/A 29.9% 4.75%
118.2 (136.8) 1.3 (32.9) 213.7 (13.3) 0.0 0.0 (114.3) (127.5) (19.9) 0.0 0.0 (82.5) (2.9) (105.3)
0.0 0.0 0.7 17.3 (132.2) (13.3) 0.0 0.0 2.3 (11.0) 241.9 0.0 0.0 (82.5) (2.3) 157.2
0.0 0.0 (0.2) 18.0 325.1 (13.3) 0.0 0.0 2.7 (10.5) (245.7) 0.0 0.0 (82.5) (2.7) (331.0)
0.0 0.0 0.7 19.3 275.4 (13.3) 0.0 0.0 2.2 (11.1) (153.8) 0.0 0.0 (82.5) (2.2) (238.5)
RNAV Office Retail Hotel Residential Others GAV Add: Other investments Less: Net debt Add: Adjustment for MCH debt RNAV Fully-diluted share base RNAV per share (S$) Target price Disc to RNAV 40%
RNAV (S$m) 3,671 982 684 600 16 5,953 12 (256) 97 5,806 412 14.07 8.44
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A 76.7% N/A N/A N/A 40.7% N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A 76.0% N/A N/A N/A 42.2% N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A 76.0% N/A N/A N/A 22.3% N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A 76.0% N/A N/A N/A 31.8% N/A N/A
163
Newspaper SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$5,338m
S$6,527m
US$9.72m
S$11.94m
90.0%
1,593 m shares
Dependable dividends
SPH offers attractive yields of 6%, underpinned by a dominant newspaper and magazine business and a robust property arm. Rising recurring earnings from its property arm and rental increases next year could augur higher FY13 dividends.
Our estimates housekeeping target price catalysts to rental-income growth. have been tweaked for matters. Our SOP is unchanged with come from stronger and ad-revenue rentals increased both at Paragon (+3.1% yoy) and Clementi Mall on the back of a full year of operations (+100.6%). We expect Paragons outperformance to continue from its good location and market positioning while Clementi Malls exposure to resilient suburban spending should spell further rental upside as yields mature.
Balance-sheet strength
Following the success of Clementi Mall, SPH is attempting to repeat its feat by developing a similar-sized suburban mall, Seletar Mall, jointly with United Engineers. Expected completion is end-FY14. Management continues to be on the lookout for suburban retail assets to deploy SPHs S$372m of cash. Although retail sites remain widely sought after, a slowing economy could present suitable opportunities.
Price Close
106 102 99 95 92 88 85 81
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Aug-11A 1,251 525.6 379.9 0.24 (22.3%) 16.81 0.24 5.93% 13.73 16.26 31.2% 2.92 17.4% Aug-12A 1,273 512.9 362.0 0.23 (5.5%) 17.79 0.24 5.94% 14.45 NA 39.2% 2.90 16.4% Aug-13F 1,320 567.8 388.1 0.25 7.4% 16.57 0.24 5.96% 13.30 21.75 44.8% 2.90 17.5% 1.30% 1.02 Aug-14F 1,369 595.1 411.0 0.26 5.8% 15.66 0.26 6.31% 12.67 13.84 44.1% 2.90 18.6% 1.23% 1.05 Aug-15F 1,401 603.9 418.4 0.27 1.8% 15.38 0.26 6.42% 12.41 12.56 41.6% 2.90 18.9% 1.20% 1.08
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
4.09 4.12
Current
Target
4.39
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Aug-12A 372 184 27 409 993 363 476 134 2,092 3,064 3 279 82 364 1,280 41 1,321 47 1,732 2,242 83 2,325 Aug-13F 240 283 32 409 964 320 476 134 2,119 3,049 3 231 82 316 1,280 41 1,321 47 1,684 2,242 87 2,329 Aug-14F 256 293 33 409 991 277 476 134 2,147 3,034 3 239 82 324 1,280 41 1,321 47 1,693 2,242 90 2,333 Aug-15F 312 300 34 409 1,055 234 453 134 2,159 2,980 3 245 82 330 1,280 41 1,321 47 1,698 2,242 94 2,337
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Aug-12A 512.9 (584.4) Aug-13F 567.8 (151.3) Aug-14F 595.1 (3.1) Aug-15F 603.9 (2.0)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Aug-12A 1.75% (2.4%) 40.3% (0.57) 1.41 17.84 16.5% 105% 48.34 N/A N/A 16.4% 13.2% Aug-13F 3.72% 10.7% 43.0% (0.66) 1.41 11.25 16.0% 98% 64.57 N/A N/A 17.2% 14.1% Aug-14F 3.73% 4.8% 43.5% (0.65) 1.41 11.88 16.0% 99% 76.79 N/A N/A 17.4% 14.8% Aug-15F 2.30% 1.5% 43.1% (0.61) 1.41 12.08 16.0% 99% 77.32 N/A N/A 17.7% 15.1%
217.2 8.1 (82.5) 71.3 (27.5) (217.3) 0.0 0.0 (244.8) 134.0 0.0 0.0 (386.8) 398.1 145.3
43.6 (18.6) (74.5) 367.1 (67.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (67.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (388.1) (25.0) (413.1)
43.6 (18.6) (78.8) 538.1 (67.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (67.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (411.0) (25.0) (436.0)
55.4 (18.6) (80.2) 558.5 (51.8) 0.0 11.8 0.0 (40.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (418.4) (25.0) (443.4)
Key Drivers
Adex rev. grth (%, main newsppr) ASP (% chg, main newsppr) Circulation grth (%, main newsppr) Adex rev. grth (%, 2ndary newsppr) ASP (% chg, 2ndary newsppr) Circulation grth (%, 2ndary newsppr) Adex rev. grth (%, tertiary newsppr) ASP (% chg, tertiary ppr) Circulation grth (%, tertiary newsppr) Newsprint Cost (% Change) Aug-12A 2.0% N/A -1.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.7% Aug-13F 3.0% N/A -0.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.5% Aug-14F 5.0% N/A -0.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.4% Aug-15F 3.0% N/A -0.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.4%
165
SingTel
ST SP / STEL.SI Current S$3.17 S$3.22 S$3.22 1.6%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$41,373m
S$50,541m
US$69.22m
S$85.05m
43.6%
15,943 m shares
Alan Stuart
T (61) 2 96946071 E alan.stuart@cimb.com
Ian Martin
T (61) 3 96311018 E ian.martin@cimb.com
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Operating EBITDA Margin Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
|
3.22
Mar-11A 18,071 4,989 27.6% 3,825 0.24 (2.84%) 13.29 0.26 8.14% 11.04 15.72 18.7% 15.9%
Mar-12A 18,825 5,115 27.2% 3,761 0.23 (3.30%) 13.75 0.16 4.99% 11.34 11.39 31.8% 15.4%
Target
Mar-13F 18,315 5,030 27.5% 3,486 0.22 (5.19%) 14.50 0.15 4.83% 11.38 16.01 27.5% 14.6% 0% 0.94
Mar-14F 18,823 5,104 27.1% 3,707 0.23 6.34% 13.63 0.16 5.13% 11.00 14.64 21.8% 14.8% 0% 0.95
Mar-15F 19,397 5,260 27.1% 4,072 0.26 9.85% 12.41 0.18 5.64% 10.44 13.59 16.0% 15.4% 0% 0.97
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
SingTel
Balance Sheet
Mar-12A 18,825 10,599 5,115 (2,002) 3,113 (341) 2,005 104 4,881 86 4,967 (1,205) 3,762 (1) 0 Mar-13F 18,315 10,344 5,030 (2,107) 2,924 (324) 1,934 53 4,587 0 4,587 (1,100) 3,486 0 0 Mar-14F 18,823 10,592 5,104 (2,086) 3,017 (324) 2,133 53 4,880 0 4,880 (1,173) 3,707 0 0 Mar-15F 19,397 10,914 5,260 (2,089) 3,171 (324) 2,467 53 5,367 0 5,367 (1,294) 4,072 0 0 (S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Mar-12A 1,346 3,927 208 337 5,818 11,580 0 10,174 12,845 34,599 131 5,053 351 5,535 8,662 2,772 11,434 0 16,969 23,428 20 23,448
Mar-13F 2,090 3,821 202 337 6,449 11,818 0 10,174 13,485 35,477 131 4,897 351 5,379 8,662 3,470 12,132 0 17,511 24,395 20 24,415
Mar-14F 3,207 3,927 208 337 7,679 12,062 0 10,174 14,194 36,430 131 5,057 351 5,539 8,662 4,226 12,888 0 18,427 25,662 20 25,682
Mar-15F 4,438 4,046 214 337 9,035 12,290 0 10,174 15,095 37,558 131 5,211 351 5,693 8,662 5,080 13,742 0 19,434 27,139 20 27,159
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Mar-12A 5,115 11 Mar-13F 5,030 (44) Mar-14F 5,104 49 Mar-15F 5,260 28 Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
1,376 (341) (451) 5,710 (2,249) 582 (903) (239) (2,809) 1,536 0 0 (4,112) (1,688) (4,264)
Mar-12A 4.17% 2.53% 27.2% (0.47) 1.47 8.89 24.3% 69% 71.70 11.28 211.4 8.42% 9.78%
Mar-13F (2.71%) (1.66%) 27.5% (0.42) 1.53 8.31 24.0% 70% 77.20 9.40 227.8 7.21% 9.02%
Mar-14F 2.78% 1.47% 27.1% (0.35) 1.61 8.58 24.0% 70% 75.11 9.10 220.7 7.24% 9.00%
Mar-15F 3.05% 3.05% 27.1% (0.27) 1.70 9.01 24.1% 70% 75.02 9.09 220.9 7.41% 9.08%
Key Drivers
Group Mobile Subscribers (m) Group Fixed Voice Subscribers (m) Grp fixed brdband subscribers (m) Group Pay TV Subs (m) Group Mobile ARPU (US$/mth) Grp fixed voice ARPU (US$/mth) Grp fixed brdband ARPU (US$/mth) Group Pay TV ARPU (US$/mth)
|
167
SMRT Corporation
MRT SP / SMRT.SI Current S$1.69 S$1.78 S$1.78 5.3%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,102m
S$2,570m
US$0.74m
S$0.91m
38.0%
1,520 m shares
Bumpy ride
The appointment of a new CEO is a step in the right direction but SMRT will need to endure a period of subdued growth to get its house in order. Meanwhile, we remain cautious about the likely lower dividends and margin pressure.
SMRT remains an Underperform, with a potential derating driven by dividend cuts and earnings disappointments. We make no changes to our EPS forecasts or DCF-based target price (WACC: 6.9%). implying that margin pressure will persist.
Dividend cuts?
We expect SMRT to slash its dividend payout ratio from 94% in FY3/12 to 60% in FY13 as cash conservation takes priority in preparation for its heavy capex. The group has slipped into a net debt position from net cash in previous years. Furthermore, its 1HFY13 dividend reaffirms our suspicion as the payout ratio was 33%, lower than last years 39%.
Expensive
We prefer ComfortDelGro for exposure to Singapores land transport sector. SMRT is expensive at 17.5x CY13 P/E (7.8% 3-year EPS CAGR) vs. 13.6x P/E (9.2% EPS CAGR) for ComfortDelGro. Dividend yields are similar at 3.6%.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Mar-11A 970 330.8 161.1 0.11 (1.2%) 15.92 0.085 5.03% 7.18 14.57 (15.8%) 3.21 20.5% Mar-12A 1,057 289.7 119.9 0.08 (25.7%) 21.41 0.075 4.41% 8.47 NA (5.7%) 3.25 15.1% Mar-13F 1,085 327.8 140.2 0.09 16.9% 18.32 0.055 3.27% 8.43 NA 31.2% 3.03 17.1% 0% 1.02 Mar-14F 1,141 352.5 147.7 0.10 5.4% 17.39 0.058 3.45% 7.71 18.15 24.7% 2.83 16.8% 0% 1.03 Mar-15F 1,192 367.3 158.4 0.10 7.2% 16.22 0.063 3.70% 7.19 14.07 15.2% 2.65 16.9% 0% 1.05
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
1.78
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
SMRT Corporation
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Mar-12A 195 64 54 0 313 1,346 68 14 15 1,443 0 546 58 604 150 86 236 124 965 791 0 791 Mar-13F 36 65 57 0 158 1,690 71 24 15 1,800 0 535 65 600 300 86 386 124 1,110 847 0 847 Mar-14F 76 69 59 0 205 1,718 74 35 15 1,841 0 562 66 629 300 86 386 124 1,139 907 0 907 Mar-15F 153 72 62 0 287 1,713 77 45 15 1,849 0 588 68 656 300 86 386 124 1,166 970 0 970
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Mar-12A 289.7 10.5 Mar-13F 327.8 (14.9) Mar-14F 352.5 21.0 Mar-15F 367.3 19.4
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Mar-12A 9.03% (12.4%) 27.4% 0.03 0.52 24.10 18.4% 94.5% 22.31 24.01 182.4 14.9% 13.5% Mar-13F 2.67% 13.1% 30.2% (0.17) 0.56 19.04 16.0% 60.0% 21.80 24.44 239.9 16.0% 14.8% Mar-14F 5.09% 7.5% 30.9% (0.15) 0.60 20.02 16.0% 60.0% 21.47 24.46 231.8 12.0% 14.0% Mar-15F 4.47% 4.2% 30.8% (0.10) 0.64 21.41 16.0% 60.0% 21.53 24.64 233.5 12.6% 14.3%
14.3 (6.9) (43.4) 264.2 (234.6) 5.8 (7.2) 0.0 (236.0) (100.0) 0.4 0.0 (129.1) (6.1) (234.9)
3.6 (9.0) (20.2) 287.3 (500.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (500.0) 150.0 0.0 0.0 (84.1) (0.6) 65.3
3.7 (9.0) (26.7) 341.5 (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (88.6) (1.4) (90.0)
3.0 (9.0) (28.1) 352.6 (170.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (170.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (95.0) (1.4) (96.4)
Key Drivers
Avg fare/trip (%chg,main prod/serv) Ridership grth (%,main prod/serv) Avg fare/trip (%chg,2ndary prod/serv) Ridership grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Mar-12A -0.2% 8.4% -1.3% 4.9% Mar-13F 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 2.7% Mar-14F 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 2.0% Mar-15F 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0%
169
Conglomerate SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
ST Engineering
STE SP / STEG.SI Current S$3.53 S$3.97 S$3.97 12.4%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$8,892m
S$10,862m
US$5.22m
S$6.41m
37.8%
3,059 m shares
Quality stock
ST Engineering has the qualities of a good stock: S$670m net cash, 30% ROEs, 8% 3-year EPS CAGR, stronger orders and dividend yields of 5%. Contrast all this with peers, which are reeling from margin compression and earnings contractions.
Maintain Outperform and target price (blended valuations). We prefer ST Engineering to SIA Engineering in the MRO space, for its liquidity, global operations (to cushion S$ appreciation) and upside from M&As. Catalysts are stronger-than-expected margins from Aerospace and reduced competition among global MRO providers.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 5,984 758.7 491.0 0.16 9.89% 21.67 0.19 5.33% 13.17 31.00 (27.3%) 6.61 30.8% Dec-11A 5,993 775.0 527.5 0.17 6.57% 20.32 0.20 5.65% 12.98 21.17 (23.8%) 6.11 31.1% Dec-12F 6,545 833.5 567.9 0.19 7.28% 18.98 0.21 6.07% 11.74 17.02 (40.4%) 5.80 31.3% (0%) 1.00 Dec-13F 6,994 866.0 599.7 0.20 5.61% 18.01 0.23 6.41% 11.31 22.35 (39.3%) 5.54 31.5% 0% 1.00 Dec-14F 7,348 913.8 639.4 0.21 6.61% 16.89 0.24 6.83% 10.57 16.96 (44.0%) 5.27 32.0% 0% 1.00
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
3.97
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
ST Engineering
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 1,807 1,540 1,594 26 4,967 1,357 333 564 187 2,440 205 2,232 1,042 3,479 1,154 788 1,942 110 5,531 1,766 110 1,876 Dec-12F 2,058 1,559 1,674 26 5,318 1,419 336 564 187 2,506 101 2,571 1,023 3,694 1,154 880 2,034 110 5,838 1,860 125 1,985 Dec-13F 2,077 1,690 1,824 26 5,618 1,478 336 564 187 2,565 101 2,755 1,048 3,903 1,154 927 2,081 110 6,094 1,949 140 2,089 Dec-14F 2,225 1,733 1,898 26 5,883 1,535 337 564 187 2,623 101 2,890 1,069 4,060 1,154 978 2,133 110 6,302 2,049 155 2,203
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 775.0 (70.3) Dec-12F 833.5 (257.0) Dec-13F 866.0 79.9 Dec-14F 913.8 (31.2)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 0.14% 2.14% 12.9% 0.15 0.58 9.93 17.5% 89.8% 67.22 442.0 162.5 27.0% 21.1% Dec-12F 9.21% 7.54% 12.7% 0.26 0.61 12.01 18.4% 90.0% 66.93 432.8 149.3 29.1% 21.8% Dec-13F 6.86% 3.90% 12.4% 0.27 0.64 13.28 18.5% 90.0% 66.37 432.5 153.7 33.0% 22.4% Dec-14F 5.07% 5.53% 12.4% 0.32 0.67 14.10 18.5% 90.0% 67.48 437.9 153.3 32.7% 23.0%
98.0 0.0 (81.9) 720.8 (199.3) (34.3) 0.5 (233.1) 18.7 62.4 0.0 (450.3) (124.0) (493.2)
254.7 0.0 (141.4) 689.7 (200.0) (3.6) 251.3 47.7 (104.1) 0.0 0.0 (473.8) 91.8 (486.0)
(94.6) 0.0 (168.2) 683.1 (200.0) 0.3 (0.3) (200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (511.1) 46.6 (464.5)
87.3 0.0 (131.6) 838.2 (200.0) (1.5) 0.1 (201.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (539.8) 51.7 (488.1)
Key Drivers
Rev. growth (%, main biz.) EBITDA mgns (%, main biz.) Rev. as % of total (main biz.) EBITDA as % of total (main biz.) Rev. growth (%, 2ndary biz.) EBITDA mgns (%, 2ndary biz.) Rev. as % of total (2ndary biz.) EBITDA as % of total (2ndary biz.) Rev. growth (%, tertiary biz.) EBITDA mgns (%, tertiary biz.) Rev.as % of total (tertiary biz.) EBITDA as % of total (tertiary biz.) Dec-11A 250.2% N/A N/A N/A -2.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F 968.3% N/A N/A N/A 1.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F 228.5% N/A N/A N/A 11.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F 177.9% N/A N/A N/A 8.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
171
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,192m
S$1,457m
US$1.12m
S$1.37m
70.5%
1,943 m shares
No clear catalyst
The luxury retail market could be a difficult market going forward in terms of retail demand and acquisitions. Yet, valuations are not overly demanding at 0.9x P/BV and 6-7% dividend yield. The 40% of space on master/long-leases limits downside. Its sponsors intention to expand in China is a mid- to long-term positive. We would turn positive on stronger-than-expected Toshin reversions and accretive acquisitions through ample debt headroom.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 165.7 130.5 150.0 75.7 0.042 7.0% 17.72 0.039 5.21% 29.9% 0.85 0.88 5.06% Dec-11A 180.1 143.6 104.4 80.1 0.045 7.2% 16.53 0.041 5.49% 30.5% 0.86 0.87 5.29% Dec-12F 187.9 150.0 92.9 86.0 0.048 5.4% 15.68 0.044 5.90% 30.6% 0.86 0.87 5.54% 0% 1.04 Dec-13F 203.7 162.1 104.4 97.5 0.054 12.4% 13.96 0.050 6.69% 30.5% 0.86 0.87 6.22% 0% 1.14 Dec-14F 207.0 164.8 107.0 100.1 0.055 2.5% 13.62 0.051 6.87% 30.5% 0.86 0.87 6.38% 0% 1.12
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.75 0.80
Current
Target
0.83
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Dec-11A 2,710 11 8 2,728 108 0 3 0 111 43 28 31 101 838 48 887 1,678 0 173 1,851 Dec-12F 2,710 11 9 2,730 120 0 3 0 122 45 0 34 79 873 49 922 1,678 0 173 1,851 Dec-13F 2,710 11 10 2,731 125 0 3 0 127 49 0 35 83 873 52 925 1,678 0 173 1,851 Dec-14F 2,711 11 11 2,732 125 0 3 0 128 49 0 35 84 873 52 925 1,678 0 173 1,851
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Dec-11A 109.6 33.6 7.8 (2.5) (16.6) 131.8 (16.2) (1.6) 0.7 (17.1) 0.5 0.0 (90.1) (31.7) (121.2) (6.5) 115.4 84.3 Dec-12F 98.4 34.2 1.9 (5.5) 0.6 129.6 (0.3) (1.6) 0.7 (1.2) 15.5 0.0 (95.8) (36.5) (116.8) 11.6 129.1 109.7 Dec-13F 110.6 34.1 3.8 (6.2) 0.8 143.1 (0.3) (1.6) 0.8 (1.1) 0.0 0.0 (107.3) (29.7) (136.9) 5.1 142.7 107.9 Dec-14F 113.4 34.1 0.8 (6.4) 1.0 142.8 (0.3) (1.6) 0.8 (1.1) 0.0 0.0 (109.8) (31.5) (141.4) 0.3 142.5 107.6
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Dec-11A 8.7% 10.1% 79.7% 5.5% 3.68 4.73% 76.7% 1.09 1.09 1.06 (300%) 3.71% Dec-12F 4.3% 4.5% 79.8% 7.5% 3.80 5.60% 92.6% 1.55 1.55 1.52 (240%) 3.27% Dec-13F 8.4% 8.1% 79.6% 13.3% 4.15 5.60% 93.4% 1.53 1.53 1.50 (244%) 3.66% Dec-14F 1.6% 1.7% 79.6% 2.6% 4.23 5.60% 93.5% 1.52 1.52 1.49 (235%) 3.74%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Dec-11A 12.4 N/A N/A 1,652 95.6% N/A N/A Dec-12F 12.6 N/A N/A 1,660 96.5% N/A N/A Dec-13F 13.0 N/A N/A 1,660 96.6% N/A N/A Dec-14F 13.4 N/A N/A 1,660 96.6% N/A N/A
173
StarHub
STH SP / STAR.SI Current S$3.64 S$4.35 S$4.35 19.5%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$5,104m
S$6,244m
US$4.99m
S$6.12m
33.0%
1,716 m shares
Time to sparkle
StarHub's strong FCFE and multi-year low net debt to EBITDA show that it is ripe for higher dividends while data monetisation will rise further as more users switch to its tiered plans. However, its pay TV dominance should wane over the long term as it faces SingTel's mioTV.
We are upbeat on StarHub for its potentially higher dividends and domestic-driven operations, comparing against SingTels. Despite high valuations, its dividend yields are attractive at 6-7% for FY13-14. StarHub is our top pick within the Singapore telco sector. We maintain Outperform and our DCF-based target price (WACC: 7.8%). new tiered plans launched in 3Q12. We think the migration from 3G to 4G will be faster than it was for 2G to 3G (~60% in three years) as there are currently more 4G-enabled handsets available in the market compared to previously. We believe that, with the new tiered plans, customers will eventually trade up from their bundled plans when they require more data. Indeed, there is significant room for improvement as StarHub revealed that only 20% of its users use more than 2GB/month while 99% of users use below 12GB/month.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Operating EBITDA Margin Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 2,238 613.6 27.4% 263.1 0.16 (14.9%) 22.80 0.20 5.49% 11.07 20.02 1052% 304% Dec-11A 2,311 676.0 29.3% 315.5 0.18 15.4% 19.78 0.20 5.49% 9.95 20.18 2138% 824% Dec-12F 2,390 718.2 30.1% 355.8 0.21 12.5% 17.57 0.20 5.49% 9.19 15.50 710% 991% 0% 1.03 Dec-13F 2,477 738.5 29.8% 387.8 0.22 8.5% 16.17 0.24 6.59% 8.99 11.81 980% 896% 0% 1.07 Dec-14F 2,629 791.0 30.1% 433.1 0.25 11.2% 14.54 0.24 6.59% 8.37 13.78 473% 814% 0% 1.14
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg
3.64 3.86
Current
Target
4.35
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
StarHub
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 179 301 37 17 535 762 0 424 3 1,188 75 448 380 903 588 210 797 0 1,701 23 0 23 Dec-12F 238 224 41 17 520 755 0 424 3 1,182 0 412 380 793 588 270 857 0 1,650 49 0 49 Dec-13F 372 269 43 17 700 747 0 424 3 1,174 0 429 398 827 738 270 1,007 0 1,834 37 0 37 Dec-14F 411 278 41 17 747 758 0 424 3 1,184 0 453 398 852 738 270 1,007 0 1,859 69 0 69
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 676.0 (20.6) 0.0 59.2 (18.4) 0.0 696.2 (246.5) 2.5 0.0 0.0 (244.0) (142.9) 0.0 0.0 (343.3) (24.3) (510.5) Dec-12F 718.2 37.8 15.7 0.0 (15.7) (14.6) 741.4 (262.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (262.9) (75.0) 14.7 0.0 (343.7) (15.7) (419.7) Dec-13F 738.5 (30.3) 15.4 0.0 (15.4) (79.4) 628.8 (247.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (247.7) 150.0 14.7 0.0 (396.8) (15.4) (247.5) Dec-14F 791.0 17.5 16.7 0.0 (16.7) (88.7) 719.8 (262.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (262.9) 0.0 14.7 0.0 (415.7) (16.7) (417.6)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 3.28% 10.2% 29.3% (0.28) 0.013 19.42 16.9% 109% 45.55 12.84 164.8 40.1% 51.8% Dec-12F 3.41% 6.2% 30.1% (0.20) 0.029 25.46 17.0% 97% 40.23 14.19 157.0 50.9% 67.5% Dec-13F 3.65% 2.8% 29.8% (0.21) 0.022 26.09 17.0% 107% 36.31 14.60 147.1 59.0% 68.8% Dec-14F 6.13% 7.1% 30.1% (0.19) 0.040 26.14 17.0% 96% 37.95 13.80 145.9 65.3% 68.6%
Key Drivers
Group Mobile Subscribers (m) Group Fixed Voice Subscribers (m) Grp fixed brdband subscribers (m) Group Pay TV Subs (m) Group Mobile ARPU (US$/mth) Grp fixed voice ARPU (US$/mth) Grp fixed brdband ARPU (US$/mth) Group Pay TV ARPU (US$/mth) Dec-11A 2.19 N/A 0.44 0.55 36.4 N/A 36 39.0 Dec-12F 2.33 N/A 0.46 0.55 35.0 N/A 36 39.6 Dec-13F 2.47 N/A 0.48 0.56 35.6 N/A 37 40.0 Dec-14F 2.59 N/A 0.50 0.57 35.9 N/A 37 40.0
175
STX OSV
SOH SP / STXO.SI Current S$1.36 S$1.47 S$1.47 8.5%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,314m
S$1,605m
US$9.61m
S$11.81m
49.3%
1,180 m shares
Uncertainty lingers
While margins are expected to revert back to their historical levels, we do not anticipate a sharp plunge in earnings in 2013. However, whether SOH would continue as a public-listed entity is a different proposition.
Maintain Neutral, EPS and target price, still based on blended valuations. We would revisit the stock upon greater certainty of its shareholding structure. market) and PSVs (many more coming on stream). Instead, SOH expects more subsea orders. Additionally, its new Brazilian yard (Promar) is 60% completed and could start taking orders in 2013. As order intake lags recognition rate, its yards could experience some under-utilisation in 2013. That said, the impact may not fully percolate down to margins, given the companys variable-cost structure.
Financial Summary
Revenue (KRm) Operating EBITDA (KRm) Net Profit (KRm) Core EPS (KR) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (KR) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 11,881 1,329 1,030 0.75 134% 8.11 0.13 2.0% 6.22 9.14 76.8% 3.14 48.1% Dec-11A 12,401 2,355 1,594 1.37 83% 4.43 0.69 10.9% 2.78 7.62 (12.0%) 2.13 55.0% Dec-12F 11,983 1,642 1,061 0.90 (34%) 7.03 1.04 16.4% 4.91 4.78 24.7% 2.23 30.9% (0%) 0.99 Dec-13F 12,108 1,574 1,008 0.85 (5%) 7.41 0.32 5.0% 4.99 5.99 17.0% 2.04 28.7% (0%) 0.98 Dec-14F 12,742 1,529 971 0.82 (4%) 7.69 0.32 5.0% 4.78 7.30 1.9% 1.75 24.5% 0% 0.95
Aug-12
Current
1.47
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
STX OSV
Balance Sheet
(KRm) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 3,064 7,599 356 0 11,019 1,011 278 415 84 1,788 2,407 4,871 1,536 8,814 231 4 235 205 9,254 3,510 43 3 553 Dec-12F 3,404 7,880 492 0 11,777 1,257 288 415 84 2,044 3,968 4,596 1,374 9,938 276 4 280 205 10,423 3,350 48 3 398 Dec-13F 3,960 7,962 498 0 12,419 1,462 298 415 84 2,259 4,340 4,644 1,509 10,493 251 4 255 205 10,953 3,667 58 3 725 Dec-14F 4,610 8,379 524 0 13,513 1,459 308 415 84 2,266 4,566 4,887 1,656 11,110 126 4 130 205 11,445 4,266 68 4 334
Cash Flow
(KRm) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 2,355 (1,016) 269 25 (18) (406) 1,209 (120) (97) (4) 0 (221) (46) 0 0 (450) (279) (775) Dec-12F 1,642 569 0 0 15 (320) 1,906 (390) 0 0 0 (390) 45 0 0 (1,221) 0 (1,176) Dec-13F 1,574 337 0 0 15 (305) 1,621 (350) 0 0 0 (350) (25) 0 0 (690) 0 (715) Dec-14F 1,529 47 0 0 15 (294) 1,297 (150) 0 0 0 (150) (125) 0 0 (372) 0 (497)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (KR) BVPS (KR) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 4.38% 77% 19.0% 0.36 2.97 137.9 27.6% 50% 53.66 16.00 212.9 35.8% 32.8% Dec-12F (3.37%) (30%) 13.7% (0.71) 2.84 74.9 30.0% 115% 58.03 19.25 214.8 35.3% 21.7% Dec-13F 1.04% (4%) 13.0% (0.54) 3.11 71.4 30.0% 37% 59.69 21.95 204.8 24.7% 18.0% Dec-14F 5.24% (3%) 12.0% (0.07) 3.62 68.8 30.0% 38% 58.51 20.90 195.0 23.2% 16.0%
Key Drivers
Outstanding Orderbook (KRm) Order Book Wins (KRm) Orderbook Depletion (KRm) Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$) No. Of Ships (unit) Average Utilisation Rate (%) Dec-11A Dec-12F 16,675.0 14,891.7 11,117.0 10,000.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F 14,484.2 11,000.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F 13,242.2 11,000.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
177
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$674.1m
S$823.4m
US$0.01m
S$0.01m
40.0%
205.9 m shares
Unlucky number 8
STXPO suffered its eighth consecutive quarterly loss in 3Q12 when the bulk, container and tanker divisions were all in the red. We do not expect any turnaround in the near term as the shipping market remains weak due to overcapacity and bunker prices remain elevated.
We retain our Underperform call and target price, based on SOP. We remain bearish on the stock, with the key derating catalyst being the even tougher conditions expected for the shipping markets in 2013. STXPO's high gearing is also a big concern. Our top pick is Pacific Basin in the bulk space. losses on its chartered-in bulk fleet due to the high charter rates that the company entered into previously.
STXPO continues to expand its fleet despite challenging times. In 4Q12, it will take delivery of 11 ships, followed by 20 in 2013 and another nine in 2014. The saving grace is that 75% of its order book has been locked into long-term contracts of affreightment which are likely to enjoy small profits. Also, the remaining 10 unfinanced ships have attached COAs, making it easier to secure debt funding.
11 9 7 5 3 Vol th 1 40 30 20 10
Nov-11
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 5,593 173.2 69.9 0.19 na 16.99 0.076 2.31% 14.8 1.33 94% 0.32 1.9% Dec-11A 5,177 22.5 (19.4) -0.85 (543%) NA 0.060 1.84% 143.7 1.52 130% 0.32 (8.3%) Dec-12F 4,577 (102.2) (352.2) -1.71 100% NA 0.043 1.30% NA NA 230% 0.39 (18.4%) (0.000%) Dec-13F 4,666 43.7 (244.2) -1.19 (31%) NA 0.043 1.30% 121.3 9.82 322% 0.45 (15.2%) (0.001%) Dec-14F 5,018 138.5 (170.5) -0.83 (30%) NA 0.043 1.30% 41.0 3.15 393% 0.52 (12.2%) 0.000%
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.84
Current
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 434 363 64 741 1,602 4,252 190 40 0 4,482 583 228 526 1,337 2,589 52 2,641 0 3,978 2,099 7 2,106 Dec-12F 103 321 58 741 1,223 5,191 184 40 0 5,416 750 207 526 1,483 3,359 52 3,411 0 4,894 1,738 7 1,745 Dec-13F 51 327 57 741 1,176 5,728 179 40 0 5,947 1,000 204 526 1,730 3,849 52 3,901 0 5,631 1,485 7 1,492 Dec-14F 130 352 60 741 1,283 5,903 174 40 0 6,118 1,200 216 526 1,942 4,094 52 4,146 0 6,088 1,306 7 1,313
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 22 241 Dec-12F -102 27 Dec-13F 44 -8 Dec-14F 138 -16
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (7.4%) (87%) 0.43% -13.30 10.19 -1.26 0.00% (7.3%) 21.53 3.71 13.05 (2.25%) (1.59%) Dec-12F (11.6%) (555%) (2.23%) -19.45 8.44 -2.41 0.00% (2.4%) 27.34 4.75 17.00 (4.58%) (4.43%) Dec-13F 1.9% N/A 0.94% -23.30 7.21 -1.07 0.00% (3.8%) 25.35 4.54 16.24 (1.75%) (1.89%) Dec-14F 7.5% 217% 2.76% -25.08 6.34 -0.28 0.00% (5.4%) 24.69 4.39 15.71 (0.48%) (0.47%)
210 -633 -1 -160 -1,000 180 0 815 -5 607 0 0 -18 -633 -44
Key Drivers
Average Baltic Dry Index Average Bulk Rate (US$/day) Bulk Rates (yoy Change %) Capacity (no. Of Calendar Days) Bulk Capacity (yoy Change %) Fleet Size (no. Of Vessels) No. Of Dry Bulk Ships Dec-11A Dec-12F Dec-13F 1,550.0 1,228.0 1,099.0 40,190.3 34,161.8 30,745.6 4.8% -15.0% -10.0% 112,603 111,873 124,283 -11.9% -0.6% 11.1% 341.0 402.0 420.0 280 333 348 Dec-14F 1,154.0 32,282.9 5.0% 128,480 3.4% 428.0 356
179
REIT SINGAPORE
November 27, 2012
Suntec REIT
SUN SP / SUNT.SI Current S$1.55 S$1.72 S$1.72 11.0%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,840m
S$3,473m
US$7.14m
S$8.73m
95.0%
2,231 m shares
Positives priced in
Valuations are undemanding at 0.8x P/BV, with downside from AEI disruption limited by Chijmes divestment proceeds. However, we believe that positives from its sturdy office portfolio and AEI delivery could be increasingly priced in, after its YTD outperformance.
No change to DPU estimates and DDM-based target price (discount rate of 7.5%). Maintain Neutral. We see rerating catalysts in increased visibility of accretion from acquisitions and earnings outperformance due to AEI. Suntec City office remained sturdy, anchored by 100% occupancy, unchanged from 2Q. Backed by the strong occupancy, renewal rents inched up to S$8.96 psf in 3Q (2Q: S$8.71psf) though leasing could have been mainly for smaller spaces. Rental reversions remain positive due to low expiring rents. With proactive leasing, lease expiries have been lowered to 1.6% of total office NLA for FY12 and 19.7% for FY13.
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Price Close
Financial Summary
Gross Property Revenue (S$m) Net Property Income (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Distributable Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield Asset Leverage BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In DPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 249.5 193.1 385.7 182.5 0.07 265% 22.36 0.091 5.90% 38.4% 1.81 0.86 3.78% Dec-11A 270.3 193.4 631.8 220.7 0.11 56% 14.32 0.099 6.43% 37.5% 1.99 0.78 5.69% Dec-12F 267.7 172.9 165.4 209.8 0.07 (32%) 20.93 0.093 6.04% 36.8% 1.99 0.78 3.72% 0% 0.87 Dec-13F 276.6 180.9 140.0 208.7 0.06 (16%) 24.95 0.092 5.95% 38.1% 1.97 0.79 3.13% 0% 0.80 Dec-14F 291.2 190.1 151.3 218.9 0.07 7% 23.28 0.096 6.19% 38.9% 1.95 0.79 3.39% 0% 0.82
Vol m
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.55 1.63
Current
Target
1.72
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Suntec REIT
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Investments Intangible Assets Other Long-term Assets Total Non-current Assets Total Cash And Equivalents Inventories Trade Debtors Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Trade Creditors Short-term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-term Borrowings Other Long-term Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Preferred Shareholders Funds Total Equity Dec-11A 7,185 61 8 7,254 104 0 14 145 263 81 200 25 306 2,620 44 2,664 4,434 113 4,547 Dec-12F 7,268 61 9 7,337 128 0 14 1 142 80 200 23 303 2,553 44 2,597 4,467 113 4,580 Dec-13F 7,425 61 10 7,496 128 0 14 1 142 83 200 22 305 2,710 44 2,754 4,467 113 4,580 Dec-14F 7,525 61 12 7,597 131 0 14 1 145 87 200 22 309 2,810 44 2,854 4,467 113 4,580
Cash Flow
(S$m) Pre-tax Profit Depreciation And Non-cash Adj. Change In Working Capital Tax Paid Others Cashflow From Operations Capex Net Investments And Sale Of FA Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Equity Raised/(Repaid) Dividends Paid Cash Interest And Others Cash Flow From Financing Total Cash Generated Free Cashflow To Firm Free Cashflow To Equity Dec-11A 641 (45) (10) (2) (366) 218 (3) (49) 25 (28) 113 (1) (211) (36) (137) 53 212 266 Dec-12F 169 (5) (1) (3) 30 190 (82) 226 12 157 (68) 0 (205) (51) (323) 24 367 228 Dec-13F 142 17 3 (2) 32 191 (157) 58 18 (81) 157 0 (209) (58) (109) 0 130 209 Dec-14F 153 12 4 (2) 32 200 (100) 64 12 (24) 100 0 (213) (60) (173) 3 196 216
Key Ratios
Gross Property Revenue Growth NPI Growth Net Property Income Margin DPS Growth Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash Ratio ROIC (%) Return On Average Assets Dec-11A 8.34% 0.2% 71.5% 8.9% 1.40 0.94% 35% 0.86 0.86 0.34 333% 8.92% Dec-12F (0.96%) (10.6%) 64.6% (6.1%) 1.46 1.96% 127% 0.47 0.47 0.42 84% 2.21% Dec-13F 3.34% 4.6% 65.4% (1.4%) 1.54 1.48% 149% 0.47 0.47 0.42 (625%) 1.85% Dec-14F 5.27% 5.1% 65.3% 4.0% 1.61 1.24% 145% 0.47 0.47 0.42 (673%) 1.97%
Key Drivers
Rental Rate Psf Pm (S$) Acq. (less development) (US$m) RevPAR (S$) Net Lettable Area (NLA) ('000 Sf) Occupancy (%) Assets Under Management (m) (S$) Funds Under Management (m) (S$) Dec-11A 8.3 N/A N/A 3,498 99.0% N/A N/A Dec-12F 8.0 N/A N/A 3,493 98.5% N/A N/A Dec-13F 8.1 N/A N/A 3,493 92.4% N/A N/A Dec-14F 8.1 N/A N/A 3,493 92.4% N/A N/A
181
Super Group
SUPER SP / SPGP.SI Current S$3.15 S$3.27 S$3.27 3.9%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,438m
S$1,756m
US$1.21m
S$1.48m
24.8%
557.5 m shares
Ingredients
We believe this business will continue to be spurred by sales in China and Southeast Asia. Non-dairy creamer enjoys good growth in Chinas beverage industry due to its wide applications, in particular the production of milk tea. Further, this division allows Super to break into new markets and understand local tastes. This benefits product development in its Branded Consumer division.
Branded Consumer
We expect a re-branding exercise in early FY13 to boost its sales, in particular in mature markets like Singapore and Malaysia. This exercise looks to market Super as a premium brand and management hopes that this will allow Super to close its pricing gap with Nestle over time Sales in difficult-to-penetrate ASEAN markets continue to grow steadily while secondary markets like the Philippines have been coming to the fore with good double-digit sales growth in FY12. Super has climbed to the third spot in the Philippine
Valuation
Although its share price has rocketed, we believe further catalysts could come from 1) successful execution of re-branding exercise 2) stronger-than-expected sales growth.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 351.8 62.8 58.35 0.09 23.0% 34.39 0.054 1.71% 24.77 NA (40.6%) 5.23 16.4% Dec-11A 441.0 68.8 62.13 0.10 5.4% 32.62 0.058 1.84% 23.72 NA (31.7%) 4.79 15.3% Dec-12F 509.8 101.6 78.58 0.13 39.6% 23.37 0.070 2.24% 16.11 NA (31.0%) 4.29 19.4% 0% 1.08 Dec-13F 609.6 104.9 83.84 0.15 11.6% 20.95 0.075 2.39% 15.51 NA (30.2%) 3.89 19.5% 0% 0.98 Dec-14F 731.7 115.4 93.09 0.17 11.0% 18.86 0.083 2.65% 14.05 NA (28.7%) 3.53 19.6% 0% 0.98
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
3.15 3.15
Current
Target
3.27
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Super Group
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 122.7 89.0 93.0 1.9 306.5 166.2 15.9 3.0 10.7 195.9 1.7 99.7 10.3 111.7 0.0 3.7 3.7 4.9 120.3 366.9 15.3 382.2 Dec-12F 133.4 112.9 94.8 3.6 344.7 175.8 15.9 3.0 10.7 205.5 1.7 102.9 10.3 114.9 0.0 5.8 5.8 4.9 125.6 409.3 15.3 424.6 Dec-13F 142.4 132.8 115.3 3.6 394.2 176.5 15.9 3.0 10.7 206.2 1.7 111.3 10.3 123.3 0.0 5.8 5.8 4.9 133.9 451.2 15.3 466.5 Dec-14F 148.7 157.3 140.8 3.6 450.4 177.3 15.9 3.0 10.7 207.0 1.7 121.8 10.3 133.7 0.0 5.7 5.7 4.9 144.3 497.7 15.3 513.0
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 68.8 (6.7) Dec-12F 101.6 (22.4) Dec-13F 104.9 (32.1) Dec-14F 115.4 (39.5)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 25.3% 9.5% 15.6% 0.22 0.66 35 9.0% 61.6% 61.55 99.4 38.95 28.1% 16.0% Dec-12F 15.6% 47.6% 19.9% 0.24 0.73 2,971 9.9% 52.5% 64.64 104.3 41.33 28.2% 21.2% Dec-13F 19.6% 3.3% 17.2% 0.25 0.81 1,677 12.5% 50.0% 67.02 95.7 39.17 25.6% 19.9% Dec-14F 20.0% 10.0% 15.8% 0.26 0.89 1,857 12.5% 50.0% 66.91 95.5 39.11 25.4% 20.1%
5.2 (1.9) (6.4) 58.9 (73.1) 24.2 (1.3) (428.7) (478.9) (1.1) 0.0 0.0 (31.2) (94.6) (126.8)
4.9 (0.1) (9.0) 75.0 (25.0) 0.0 0.0 (449.6) (474.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (39.3) (118.5) (157.7)
7.3 (0.1) (12.0) 68.0 (17.0) 0.0 0.0 (483.5) (500.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (41.9) (114.7) (156.7)
8.3 (0.1) (13.3) 70.8 (18.0) 0.0 0.0 (531.0) (549.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (46.5) (122.4) (169.0)
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv) ASP (% chg, tertiary prod/serv) Unit sales grth (%,tertiary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, tertiary prod/serv) Unit raw mat ASP (%chg,main) Total Export Sales Growth (%) Export Sales/total Sales (%) Dec-11A N/A 8.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 110.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A 13.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 22.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A 9.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 40.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
183
Swiber Holdings
SWIB SP / SWBR.SI Current S$0.59 S$0.84 S$0.84 42.5%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$294.3m
S$359.6m
US$1.31m
S$1.61m
70.0%
505.4 m shares
Oder pipeline
Swibers order book has grown 27% CAGR through 2010-12 to US$1.4bn. We estimate that about 80% of its FY13 revenue is backed by secured orders. In 2012, it won about US$1.6bn of new contracts. We keep our order target of US$600m for 2013 and see projects coming from
Undemanding valuations
Swiber is trading at 7x forward P/E, more than 1 SD below its 5-year mean and 0.7x P/BV, roughly 0.5x SD below its 5-year mean.
Price Close
Vol m
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 470 53.5 37.30 0.022 (19%) 28.99 0% 13.23 5.93 86% 0.72 3.5% Dec-11A 654 106.2 32.07 0.060 170% 10.75 0% 9.35 NA 86% 0.68 8.7% Dec-12F 898 115.4 45.00 0.074 24% 8.45 0% 9.75 NA 103% 0.72 10.8% (0%) 1.19 Dec-13F 1,012 123.9 50.48 0.083 12% 7.39 0% 10.13 NA 112% 0.64 11.7% (0%) 0.96 Dec-14F 1,140 140.1 57.13 0.094 13% 6.53 0% 9.51 NA 113% 0.57 11.7% 0% 0.81
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.84
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Swiber Holdings
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A Dec-12F 116 93 407 864 80 14 11 0 615 971 553 678 110 123 0 0 103 149 767 949 337 337 259 13 609 228 12 240 9 858 359 164 524 655 23 1,015 328 12 340 9 1,364 407 149 557 Dec-13F 40 973 16 0 1,028 771 130 0 165 1,066 337 738 23 1,097 378 12 390 9 1,496 458 147 605 Dec-14F 18 1,096 17 0 1,132 843 138 0 183 1,164 337 831 27 1,194 428 12 440 9 1,643 515 144 659
32 30 30
45 41 41
50 50 50
57 57 57
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A Dec-12F 106.2 115.4 (7.9) 1.8 (60.1) 8.3 (22.0) 26.4 (157.2) (30.8) 28.6 (159.4) 111.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 111.6 16.0 (19.2) 0.7 (19.7) (8.6) 84.5 (150.0) (57.7) 0.0 (207.7) 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Dec-13F 123.9 (28.2) (6.1) 1.2 (32.3) (18.9) 39.6 (120.0) (23.4) 0.0 (143.4) 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 Dec-14F 140.1 (31.7)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A Dec-12F 39.3% 37.3% 98.4% 8.8% 16.2% 12.8% (0.89) (0.94) 0.71 0.67 3.80 2.99 39.2% 24.0% 0% 0% 66.1 97.6 30.11 22.93 71.9 152.5 11.1% 8.5% 9.09% 7.89% Dec-13F 12.6% 7.3% 12.2% (1.12) 0.76 2.88 26.0% 0% 137.4 6.44 221.7 7.9% 7.70% Dec-14F 12.6% 13.1% 12.3% (1.23) 0.85 2.93 27.0% 0% 137.5 6.47 222.9 7.9% 8.12%
1.6 (36.4) (18.7) 55.0 (100.0) (26.4) 0.0 (126.4) 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0
Key Drivers
Outstanding Orderbook (US$m) Order Book Wins (US$m) Orderbook Depletion (US$m) Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$) No. Of Ships (unit) Average Utilisation Rate (%) Dec-11A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A 654.5 898.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A 1,012.1 N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A 1,139.7 N/A N/A N/A
185
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$615.4m
S$751.8m
US$1.08m
S$1.33m
32.0%
519.0 m shares
Vol m
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Aug-12
1.33 1.40
Current
|
Target
1.69
Mar-11A 584.2 100.1 25.96 0.05 (33%) 28.83 0.015 1.13% 8.48 4.36 32.0% 1.33 4.6%
Mar-12A 719.8 150.3 42.26 0.09 106% 14.00 0.015 1.13% 5.76 4.94 34.4% 1.24 9.1%
Mar-13F 810.5 175.3 72.33 0.14 46% 9.31 0.025 1.89% 5.50 87.81 42.9% 1.27 13.0% 0.00% 1.07
Mar-14F 901.1 194.1 85.59 0.15 8% 8.60 0.025 1.89% 5.00 8.03 32.5% 1.14 13.6% (0.63%) 1.04
Mar-15F 962.3 208.3 99.19 0.17 16% 7.67 0.035 2.64% 4.38 4.89 18.4% 1.02 14.1% (0.42%) 1.09
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
Mar-12A 719.8 263.0 150.3 (69.6) 80.8 (13.7) 1.4 0.0 68.4 (10.4) 58.0 (21.5) 36.4 5.8 0.0 Mar-13F 810.5 306.1 175.3 (65.0) 110.3 (14.3) 3.5 0.0 99.5 (5.0) 94.5 (18.9) 75.6 (3.3) 0.0 Mar-14F 901.1 339.6 194.1 (69.0) 125.1 (18.8) 5.5 0.0 111.8 (3.0) 108.8 (19.6) 89.2 (3.6) 0.0 Mar-15F 962.3 351.9 208.3 (69.0) 139.3 (20.8) 5.0 0.0 123.5 (3.0) 120.5 (17.4) 103.2 (4.0) 0.0 (S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Mar-12A 76.8 184.8 234.2 0.0 495.8 765.5 65.7 49.7 6.4 887.3 0.0 298.1 184.5 482.6 282.4 1.7 284.2 18.1 784.9 556.4 41.8 598.2
Mar-13F 20.0 173.2 317.9 0.0 511.1 741.5 66.6 48.7 22.2 879.0 5.0 221.1 180.0 406.2 297.4 10.7 308.2 18.1 732.4 614.0 43.6 657.6
Mar-14F 62.8 192.6 338.4 0.0 593.8 703.5 66.6 48.7 6.9 825.7 10.0 184.6 174.0 368.6 290.5 10.7 301.2 18.1 688.0 684.9 45.8 730.6
Mar-15F 171.4 205.6 367.9 0.0 744.9 665.5 66.6 47.7 6.9 786.7 15.0 200.7 171.5 387.2 305.5 8.7 314.2 18.1 719.5 763.4 47.7 811.1
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Mar-12A 150.3 (41.4) Mar-13F 175.3 (149.0) Mar-14F 194.1 (76.4) Mar-15F 208.3 (26.4) Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
2.2 (22.3) (12.0) 76.8 0.0 43.6 2.3 3.8 49.7 11.8 0.0 0.0 (8.5) 6.3 9.6
0.5 (24.3) (18.9) (16.4) 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.0 4.5 20.0 0.0 0.0 (14.7) (9.5) (4.2)
0.5 (28.8) (19.6) 69.7 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.0 4.5 20.0 0.0 0.0 (14.7) (9.5) (4.2)
1.5 (30.8) (17.4) 135.2 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.0 4.5 20.0 0.0 0.0 (20.6) (10.1) (10.7)
Mar-12A 23.2% 50.2% 20.9% (0.40) 1.07 3.60 37.1% 14.8% 83.97 174.3 179.2 11.5% 10.3%
Mar-13F 12.6% 16.6% 21.6% (0.48) 1.04 4.54 20.0% 19.0% 80.61 199.7 187.8 14.6% 12.8%
Mar-14F 11.2% 10.7% 21.5% (0.40) 1.16 4.34 18.0% 16.6% 74.08 213.3 131.9 13.9% 13.3%
Mar-15F 6.8% 7.3% 21.7% (0.25) 1.30 4.53 14.4% 20.2% 75.52 211.2 115.2 15.0% 13.6%
Key Drivers
ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv) Unit raw mat ASP (%chg,main) Unit raw mat ASP (%chg,2ndary)
|
187
Airlines SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
Tiger Airways
TGR SP / TAHL.SI Current S$0.71 S$0.83 S$0.83 17.1%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$477.0m
S$582.7m
US$1.22m
S$1.50m
45.0%
820.0 m shares
Near-term headwinds
Despite our favourable view for its longer-term growth potential, we continue to see near-term headwinds from poor yields and declining load factors in Australia, a result of the competition between Qantas and Virgin Australia. This should put a few more quarters between Tiger and breaking even. We anticipate price weakness on the back of further loss-making quarters. Therefore, we maintain Neutral.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.71 0.82
Mar-11A 622.2 59.9 33.40 0.06 21% 12.54 0% 13.22 NA 185% 2.17 19.4%
Current
|
Target
0.83
Mar-13F 818.8 18.5 (29.83) (0.04) (69%) NA 0% 50.12 13.02 103% 1.73 (10.2%) (0%) (1.52)
Mar-14F 589.6 93.8 44.14 0.05 na 13.19 0% 9.76 NA 95% 1.21 10.8% 0% 0.83
Mar-15F 677.6 101.7 48.28 0.06 9% 12.06 0% 9.55 5.69 74% 1.10 9.6% (0%) 0.91
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Tiger Airways
Balance Sheet
Mar-12A 618.2 618.2 (52.0) (31.3) (83.4) (17.3) 0.0 0.0 (100.7) 22.2 (78.5) (3.6) (82.1) 0.0 0.0 Mar-13F 818.8 818.8 18.5 (31.9) (13.4) (5.1) (4.2) 0.0 (22.7) (3.1) (25.7) (4.1) (29.8) 0.0 0.0 Mar-14F 589.6 589.6 93.8 (31.9) 61.9 (5.7) 120.7 0.0 176.9 (119.8) 57.1 (12.9) 0.0 44.1 0.0 0.0 Mar-15F 677.6 677.6 101.7 (37.0) 64.7 (6.3) 3.1 0.0 61.5 0.0 61.5 (13.2) 48.3 0.0 0.0 (S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Mar-12A 161 27 0 12 200 832 3 2 34 871 205 193 8 406 379 36 414 3 823 248 0 248
Mar-13F 183 36 0 12 231 793 49 0 97 939 132 259 10 401 398 36 433 0 834 336 0 336
Mar-14F 97 26 0 12 135 794 178 0 121 1,093 133 151 11 295 418 36 453 0 748 479 0 479
Mar-15F 181 30 0 12 223 884 83 0 116 1,083 134 157 11 303 439 36 474 1 778 528 0 528
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing
|
Key Ratios
Mar-12A (52.0) 0.0 (42.6) 13.7 0.6 8.8 (0.6) (72.1) (467.9) 344.8 (5.7) 0.0 (128.8) 43.5 155.3 0.0 0.0 (12.5) 186.3 Mar-13F 18.5 4.2 57.0 (30.4) 0.9 11.6 (4.1) 57.7 (581.9) 581.9 41.0 0.0 41.0 (54.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (11.6) (65.6) Mar-14F 93.8 (120.7) (97.5) (14.6) 1.2 12.9 (33.3) (158.2) (431.9) 431.9 (50.0) 0.0 (50.0) 20.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 (12.9) 7.8 Mar-15F 101.7 (3.1) 2.1 (12.8) 1.6 14.0 (13.2) 90.4 (487.0) 487.0 (10.0) 0.0 (10.0) 21.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 (14.0) 7.9 Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%)
|
Mar-12A (0.6%) (187%) (8.4%) (0.52) 0.30 (10.98) (4.6%) 0% 1.80 N/A N/A (11.6%) (10.5%)
Mar-13F 32.5% N/A 2.3% (0.42) 0.41 (2.65) (15.9%) 0% 1.47 N/A N/A (1.6%) (1.6%)
Mar-14F (28.0%) 406% 15.9% (0.55) 0.58 10.89 22.7% 0% 2.14 N/A N/A 7.7% 6.5%
Mar-15F 14.9% 8% 15.0% (0.48) 0.64 10.32 21.5% 0% 1.68 N/A N/A 6.8% 6.1%
Key Drivers
Av. Seat Km (ASK, Yoy Chg %) Rev. Psg Km (RPK, Yoy Chg %) Passenger Load Factor (%) Pax yld per RPK (S$) Pax rev. per ASK (S$) Total Cost Per ATK (S$) Fuel Cost Per ATK (S$) Non-fuel Cost Per ATK (S$) Jet Fuel Price (US$/barrel) Fleet Size (no. Of Planes)
|
Mar-12A 9.0% 3.5% 81.3% 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 129.3 34
Mar-13F 27.8% 33.7% 85.0% 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 133.0 43
Mar-14F -30.0% -28.7% 86.6% 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 133.0 47
Mar-15F 11.9% 11.9% 86.6% 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 133.0 56
189
United Engineers
UEM SP / UTES.SI Current S$2.52 S$3.13 S$3.13 24.1%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$625.2m
S$764.4m
US$0.63m
S$0.78m
80.3%
284.2 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Attractive discount
We view the current discount to book as attractive, with book values to expand from the sale of orchardgateway, revaluations and full profit recognition from the Austville executive condominium. UE remains one of the cheapest developers. 100th-year interim dividends remain possible till Jul 13, on top of steady 4% dividend yields.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 569 101.7 108.2 0.25 371% 9.68 0.10 4.01% 12.54 NA 73.2% 0.72 7.2% Dec-11A 1,187 316.4 269.5 0.82 229% 2.98 0.16 6.18% 5.00 4.36 71.1% 0.60 21.4% Dec-12F 543 83.3 40.9 0.14 (83%) 17.25 0.10 4.00% 22.06 18.82 88.1% 0.61 3.4% 0% 1.02 Dec-13F 834 163.6 72.0 0.25 75% 10.05 0.10 3.97% 10.84 4.25 76.9% 0.59 5.9% 0% 1.00 Dec-14F 1,158 254.2 108.1 0.38 50% 6.72 0.10 3.97% 4.74 1.22 35.4% 0.55 8.5% 0% 0.99
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
2.52 2.58
Current
Target
3.13
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
United Engineers
November 27, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 453 302 8 790 1,553 81 1,420 26 0 1,527 176 380 92 649 1,157 34 1,192 0 1,840 1,184 55 1,239 Dec-12F 445 89 3 706 1,244 300 1,521 26 0 1,848 619 223 53 896 929 16 945 0 1,841 1,196 55 1,252 Dec-13F 567 228 5 366 1,167 511 1,538 26 0 2,075 469 274 82 825 1,095 24 1,119 0 1,944 1,240 57 1,297 Dec-14F 1,114 317 7 306 1,745 658 942 26 0 1,626 475 381 44 900 1,109 35 1,144 0 2,044 1,319 8 1,327
41 41 41
72 72 72
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 316.4 (269.8) Dec-12F 83.3 104.4 Dec-13F 163.6 279.4 Dec-14F 254.2 37.4
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 108% 211% 26.7% (3.10) 4.17 30.01 16.8% 18.9% 69.5 N/A N/A 55.6% 13.9% Dec-12F (54%) (74%) 15.4% (3.83) 4.15 4.16 20.0% 70.5% 131.9 N/A N/A 7.8% 2.7% Dec-13F 54% 96% 19.6% (3.46) 4.30 6.26 20.0% 40.0% 69.5 N/A N/A 11.8% 4.4% Dec-14F 39% 55% 22.0% (1.63) 4.58 8.72 25.8% 26.6% 86.0 N/A N/A 18.1% 6.1%
44.0 (101.4) 0.0 (19.0) (29.6) (211.2) 0.0 0.0 1.5 (209.7) 393.4 0.7 0.0 (42.6) 74.4 425.9
(30.0) 0.0 (3.4) 154.4 (233.2) 0.0 0.0 (98.4) (331.6) 214.7 0.0 0.0 (28.8) (16.7) 169.3
(30.0) 0.0 (5.7) 407.3 (252.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (252.7) 15.6 0.0 0.0 (28.8) (19.4) (32.6)
(30.0) 0.0 (5.2) 256.5 (231.3) 0.0 0.0 550.0 318.7 19.7 0.0 0.0 (28.8) (19.6) (28.6)
RNAV RNAV (S$m) 1,664 118 767 124 17 2,690 (997) (24) (62) (34) 1,573 327 4.81 Discount to RNAV 35% % of GAV 62% 4% 29% 5% 1% 100%
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 11.8% 64.7% N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 32.9% 8.0% N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 27.1% 36.4% N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 19.4% 55.6% N/A N/A
Investment Properties (completed) Est gross value of Sengkang mall Development GDV 68% stake in UEEC Other investments GAV Less: FY13 net debt (incl any off b/s debt) Less: Future commitments (Sengkang mall) Less adj: Related party projects (with UEEC) Less adj: Net cash at UEEC RNAV Fully-diluted no. of shares (m) RNAV per share (S$)
Target Price
3.13
191
Banks SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$23,532m
S$28,747m
US$31.04m
S$38.11m
80.0%
1,574 m shares
Daniel Lau
T (65) 62108614 E daniel.lau@cimb.com
Price Close
Financial Summary
Net Interest Income (S$m) Total Non-Interest Income (S$m) Operating Revenue (S$m) Total Provision Charges (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield BVPS (S$) P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x)
|
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
18.26 20.20
Dec-10A 3,532 2,268 5,800 (474.0) 2,696 1.78 39.7% 10.19 70.00 383% 12.53 1.46 15.0%
Dec-11A 3,678 2,020 5,699 (523.4) 2,327 1.49 (16.4%) 12.07 60.00 329% 13.23 1.38 11.7%
Current
|
Target
20.56
Dec-12F 3,922 2,514 6,436 (434.3) 2,725 1.73 16.3% 10.54 69.00 378% 14.41 1.27 12.5% 0% 1.05
Dec-13F 4,036 2,477 6,514 (465.2) 2,723 1.73 (0.1%) 10.55 75.00 411% 15.54 1.18 11.6% 0% 1.03
Dec-14F 4,318 2,601 6,919 (456.0) 2,928 1.86 7.5% 9.82 79.00 433% 16.76 1.09 11.5% (0%) 1.03
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
Dec-11A 3,678 2,020 5,699 (2,450) 3,248 (523) 2,725 93 2,818 0 2,828 (10) 2,808 (467) Dec-12F 3,922 2,514 6,436 (2,724) 3,711 (434) 3,277 106 3,383 0 3,394 (10) 3,373 (627) Dec-13F 4,036 2,477 6,514 (2,780) 3,734 (465) 3,268 112 3,381 0 3,391 (10) 3,370 (627) Dec-14F 4,318 2,601 6,919 (2,947) 3,971 (456) 3,515 118 3,633 0 3,644 (10) 3,623 (674) (S$m) Total Gross Loans Liquid Assets & Investments (Current) Other Interest Earning Assets Total Gross Interest Earning Assets Total Provisions/Loan Loss Reserve Total Net Interest Earning Assets Intangible Assets Other Non-Interest Earning Assets Total Non-Interest Earning Assets Cash And Marketable Securities Long-term Investments Total Assets Customer Interest-Bearing Liabilities Bank Deposits Interest Bearing Liabilities: Others Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities Bank's Liabilities Under Acceptances Total Non-Interest Bearing Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity
|
Dec-11A 156,754 32,588 189,342 3,207 192,549 4,196 13,425 17,621 26,786 0 236,957 169,460 19,750 13,516 202,726 0 11,087 213,813 22,967 177 23,144
Dec-12F 167,708 31,499 199,207 3,641 202,848 4,186 13,728 17,914 31,230 0 251,992 182,678 19,200 13,785 215,662 0 11,309 226,971 24,824 197 25,021
Dec-13F 181,324 32,129 213,453 4,106 217,559 4,175 14,041 18,216 30,457 0 266,233 194,186 19,872 13,820 227,878 0 11,535 239,413 26,602 218 26,820
Dec-14F 195,703 33,034 228,737 4,562 233,300 4,165 14,363 18,528 30,041 0 281,869 206,906 20,568 13,856 241,329 0 11,766 253,095 28,535 239 28,774
Key Ratios
Dec-11A 81.4% 84.0% 85.2% 100.0% 59.6% 74.6% 19.0% 56.4% 0.114% 0.072% 0.278% Dec-12F 81.3% 84.0% 87.9% 100.0% 60.4% 75.4% 19.2% 58.2% 0.073% 0.046% 0.355% Dec-13F 83.3% 86.2% 87.4% 100.0% 62.3% 77.5% 19.0% 61.2% 0.145% 0.093% 0.359% Dec-14F 84.4% 87.4% 88.4% 100.0% 63.6% 78.8% 19.0% 63.6% 0.133% 0.087% 0.333% Total Income Growth Operating Profit Growth Pretax Profit Growth Net Interest To Total Income Cost Of Funds Return On Interest Earning Assets Net Interest Spread Net Interest Margin (Avg Deposits) Net Interest Margin (Avg RWA) Provisions to Pre Provisions Operating Profit Interest Return On Average Assets Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio
|
Dec-11A (1.7%) (8.3%) (12.2%) 64.5% 1.05% 2.94% 1.89% 2.17% 3.06% 16.1% 1.63% 16.6% 40.2%
Dec-12F 12.9% 14.3% 20.1% 60.9% 1.11% 2.90% 1.79% 2.15% 2.80% 11.7% 1.60% 18.6% 39.5%
Dec-13F 1.2% 0.6% (0.1%) 62.0% 1.14% 2.89% 1.75% 2.08% 2.61% 12.5% 1.56% 18.6% 43.0%
Dec-14F 6.2% 6.4% 7.5% 62.4% 1.16% 2.90% 1.74% 2.09% 2.52% 11.5% 1.58% 18.6% 42.2%
Key Drivers
Loan Growth (%) Net Interest Margin (%) Non Interest Income Growth (%) Cost-income Ratio (%) Net NPL Ratio (%) Loan Loss Reserve (%) GP Ratio (%) RWCR (%) Deposit Growth (%) Loan-deposit Ratio (%) Gross NPL Ratio (%) Fee Income Growth (%)
|
Dec-11A 26.1% 1.9% -10.9% 43.0% 1.4% 158.8% 1.5% 16.7% 19.1% 83.3% 1.5% 13.4%
Dec-12F 7.7% 1.8% 24.4% 42.3% 1.6% 147.7% 1.6% 16.7% 7.8% 83.3% 1.7% 13.8%
Dec-13F 8.9% 1.8% -1.5% 42.7% 1.8% 136.0% 1.6% 16.4% 6.3% 85.4% 1.9% 3.2%
Dec-14F 7.9% 1.8% 5.0% 42.6% 2.0% 128.0% 1.6% 16.2% 6.6% 86.6% 2.0% 6.2%
193
UOL Group
UOL SP / UTOS.SI Current S$5.56 S$6.55 S$6.55 17.8%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$3,499m
S$4,279m
US$4.03m
S$4.95m
50.0%
768.0 m shares
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 1,295 391.6 745.8 0.56 28.6% 9.97 0.15 2.70% 16.71 19.83 34.8% 0.90 9.6% Dec-11A 1,960 635.3 664.2 0.69 24.0% 8.05 0.15 2.70% 10.58 5.59 35.7% 0.84 10.8% Dec-12F 1,188 373.9 413.3 0.41 (40.5%) 13.52 0.09 1.63% 17.38 28.64 29.2% 0.79 6.0% 0% 1.14 Dec-13F 1,108 382.0 376.1 0.49 19.1% 11.35 0.11 1.94% 16.28 42.39 22.7% 0.75 6.8% 0% 0.99 Dec-14F 922 351.1 393.4 0.51 4.6% 10.85 0.11 2.03% 16.92 35.79 16.9% 0.71 6.7% 0% 1.05
5.56 5.97
Current
Target
6.55
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
UOL Group
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 296 126 1 1,579 2,002 1,090 5,402 0 30 6,522 1,199 302 139 1,639 1,073 284 1,356 0 2,996 5,055 474 5 529 Dec-12F 343 98 1 1,594 2,035 1,093 5,511 0 18 6,622 1,091 326 163 1,579 976 198 1,174 0 2,753 5,399 506 5 905 Dec-13F 330 106 1 1,473 1,911 1,097 5,619 0 17 6,733 920 364 152 1,436 823 158 981 0 2,418 5,692 534 6 226 Dec-14F 337 88 1 1,137 1,563 1,100 5,787 0 14 6,901 762 202 126 1,090 682 132 813 0 1,903 5,999 562 6 561
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 635.3 412.9 Dec-12F 373.9 62.6 Dec-13F 382.0 139.5 Dec-14F 351.1 166.2
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 51.4% 62.2% 32.4% (2.57) 6.58 15.77 13.4% 23.9% 31.83 0.41 76.3 21.4% 7.84% Dec-12F (39.4%) (41.1%) 31.5% (2.24) 7.03 10.29 12.0% 22.0% 34.49 0.45 157.3 12.1% 4.20% Dec-13F (6.7%) 2.1% 34.5% (1.84) 7.41 10.82 12.0% 22.0% 33.58 0.35 184.9 12.8% 4.26% Dec-14F (16.8%) (8.1%) 38.1% (1.44) 7.81 11.65 12.0% 22.0% 38.54 0.37 182.5 12.3% 3.86%
RNAV Directly owned Commercial/Retail Hotels/SA Residential Other assets Through listed entities Pan Pac Hotels Group (PPAC) UOB UIC GAV Less: Net debt (incl capex and other adj) RNAV Fully-diluted share base RNAV per share (S$) Target price (S$) Disc 25%
RNAV (S$m) 2,776 907 723 15 1,087 770 1,836 8,114 (1,407) 6,706 768 8.73 6.55
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 26.5% 71.1% N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.1% 50.8% N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 50.7% 44.8% N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 65.0% 29.5% N/A N/A
195
Venture Corporation
VMS SP / VENM.SI Current S$7.65 S$9.55 S$9.55 24.8%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,718m
S$2,099m
US$1.45m
S$1.77m
70.0%
274.3 m shares
A recovery year
We believe that the maiden 12-month contribution from Oclaro (which recently completed the acquisition of Opnext) will reignite its revenue and profit growth in FY13. Also, its strong FCF will continue to enable Venture to pay a sustainable dividend of 55 Scts, yielding 7%.
Our target price for Venture is based on 14x CY14 P/E, its 5-year average. We view the resumption of earnings growth as a catalyst. Maintain Outperform. We believe Venture will continue to put in more effort to improve its working capital management by reducing inventory turnover days as most components are no longer in shortage. Its target is to return to generating S$60m-80m cash from operations per quarter after netting off working capital requirements. This should further strengthen its net cash position, which stood at S$264m as at end-3Q12.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) Price To Sales (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 2,676 188.1 0.69 15.8% 11.59 0.78 0.55 7.19% 7.90 74.10 (12.8%) 1.13 10.1% Dec-11A 2,432 156.5 0.57 (16.4%) 13.86 0.86 0.55 7.19% 9.07 17.33 (16.5%) 1.12 8.5% Dec-12F 2,432 139.5 0.51 (11.4%) 15.64 0.86 0.55 7.19% 9.95 13.67 (19.1%) 1.16 7.6% (0%) 0.97 Dec-13F 2,658 164.1 0.60 17.6% 13.29 0.79 0.55 7.19% 8.59 20.34 (16.7%) 1.18 9.2% 0% 0.97 Dec-14F 2,946 194.2 0.71 18.4% 11.23 0.71 0.55 7.19% 7.55 17.03 (15.4%) 1.16 10.9% (0%) 1.01
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
7.65 8.90
Current
Target
9.55
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Venture Corporation
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 513 504 514 2 1,532 144 139 736 4 1,023 84 456 8 547 120 0 120 18 685 1,868 3 1,871 Dec-12F 514 525 442 0 1,481 157 114 713 4 988 50 457 7 514 120 0 120 29 663 1,803 3 1,806 Dec-13F 466 573 461 0 1,500 170 118 691 4 983 50 499 9 558 120 0 120 32 710 1,772 2 1,774 Dec-14F 448 635 513 0 1,596 183 124 668 4 978 50 553 10 613 120 0 120 35 768 1,805 1 1,806
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 197.2 (1.9) 39.6 Dec-12F 175.5 (4.0) 52.3 Dec-13F 208.4 (4.7) (25.5) Dec-14F 238.9 (5.4) (60.4)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (9.1%) (18.8%) 8.11% 1.13 6.81 84.5 0.80% 95% 75.28 88.95 59.30 10.0% 7.3% Dec-12F 0.0% (11.0%) 7.22% 1.26 6.57 78.6 1.58% 106% 73.80 81.61 57.57 9.1% 6.7% Dec-13F 9.3% 18.8% 7.84% 1.08 6.46 32.0 4.00% 88% 72.08 70.85 56.25 11.9% 8.5% Dec-14F 10.8% 14.6% 8.11% 1.01 6.58 38.0 4.00% 75% 71.61 69.23 56.05 13.9% 10.0%
19.3 0.3 (6.4) 248.0 (29.0) 0.7 (8.9) (85.8) (123.0) 0.9 1.3 0.0 (150.9) 88.7 (60.1)
9.5 4.1 (1.3) 236.0 (35.5) 1.5 (6.5) (1.7) (42.2) (34.3) 0.0 0.0 (150.8) (9.7) (194.8)
4.8 0.9 (2.2) 181.8 (35.5) 1.5 (6.5) (34.0) (74.5) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (150.8) (7.8) (158.6)
1.3 1.2 (6.8) 168.9 (35.5) 1.5 (6.5) (0.3) (40.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (150.8) (4.6) (155.5)
Key Drivers
ASP Change (%, Main Product) Unit sales growth (%, main prod) No. Of Lines (main Product) Rev per line (US$, main prod) ASP chg (%, 2ndary prod) Unit sales grth (%, 2ndary prod) No. Of Lines (secondary Product) Rev per line (US$, 2ndary prod) Dec-11A 0.0% -5.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F -2.0% 5.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F -1.0% 11.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F 0.0% 6.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
197
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,801m
S$2,202m
US$0.46m
S$0.55m
20.0%
1,197 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 571.7 315.4 325.6 0.22 72.5% 8.26 0.060 3.26% 4.39 66.81 (28.9%) 0.78 10.1% Dec-11A 390.5 231.3 291.2 0.16 (28.2%) 11.50 0.060 3.26% 5.60 7.54 (31.3%) 0.76 6.7% Dec-12F 209.2 121.4 110.1 0.09 (42.5%) 20.00 0.060 3.26% 12.00 NA (25.4%) 0.75 3.8% 0% 0.86 Dec-13F 252.6 151.5 135.0 0.11 22.6% 16.31 0.060 3.26% 9.66 32.33 (24.6%) 0.73 4.6% 0% 0.92 Dec-14F 485.0 210.6 185.8 0.16 37.7% 11.85 0.060 3.26% 5.79 6.85 (31.6%) 0.71 6.1% 0% 1.11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.84 1.93
Current
Target
2.00
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 1,067 166 367 168 1,768 1 1,511 0 0 1,512 0 71 118 189 160 35 195 0 385 2,895 0 2,895 Dec-12F 892 46 748 11 1,697 1 1,487 0 0 1,488 0 23 63 86 147 19 166 0 252 2,934 0 2,934 Dec-13F 888 55 833 14 1,791 1 1,481 0 0 1,482 0 28 76 104 150 23 173 0 277 2,997 0 2,997 Dec-14F 1,138 106 749 27 2,019 1 1,489 0 0 1,490 0 53 146 199 156 44 199 0 399 3,111 0 3,111
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 231.3 35.0 Dec-12F 121.4 (207.8) Dec-13F 151.5 (79.6) Dec-14F 210.6 116.7
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (31.7%) (26.7%) 59.2% 0.76 2.42 N/A 12.5% 37.5% 125.3 N/A N/A 35.0% 7.9% Dec-12F (46.4%) (47.5%) 58.0% 0.62 2.45 N/A 14.0% 65.2% 185.0 N/A N/A 19.6% 4.2% Dec-13F 20.8% 24.8% 60.0% 0.62 2.50 N/A 14.0% 53.2% 73.1 N/A N/A 17.4% 5.0% Dec-14F 92.0% 39.1% 43.4% 0.82 2.60 N/A 14.0% 38.6% 60.8 N/A N/A 21.8% 6.7%
99.8 (154.7) 0.0 (26.4) 185.0 (0.3) 0.0 (28.5) 8.5 (20.3) 127.1 0.0 0.0 (71.8) (1.8) 53.5
0.0 0.0 (10.1) (96.5) (0.3) 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.6 (13.6) 0.0 0.0 (71.8) 0.0 (85.4)
0.0 0.0 (12.4) 59.5 (0.3) 0.0 0.0 5.8 5.5 3.2 0.0 0.0 (71.8) 0.0 (68.6)
0.0 0.0 (17.1) 310.3 (0.3) 0.0 0.0 5.8 5.4 5.7 0.0 0.0 (71.8) 0.0 (66.1)
RNAV RNAV (S$m) 1,215 895 342 2,452 739 3,191 1,197 2.67 Discount to RNAV 25% % of GAV 50% 37% 14% 100%
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Dec-11A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 12.0% 85.8% N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 31.3% 68.7% N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 27.2% 72.8% N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 14.9% 85.1% N/A N/A
Investment Properties PV of residential development GDV Share of listed AFS investments GAV Less: FY13 net debt (incl any off b/s debt) RNAV Fully-diluted no. of shares (m) RNAV per share (S$)
Target Price
2.00
199
Plantations SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Wilmar International
WIL SP / WLIL.SI Current S$3.15 S$3.90 S$3.52 23.8%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$16,467m
S$20,148m
US$30.54m
S$37.46m
29.5%
6,403 m shares
Financial Summary
Revenue (US$m) Operating EBITDA (US$m) Net Profit (US$m) Core EPS (US$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (US$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 30,378 1,743 1,324 0.13 (48.9%) 19.86 0.042 1.65% 15.08 6.21 81.9% 1.39 7.3% Dec-11A 44,710 2,411 1,601 0.20 56.9% 12.66 0.049 1.89% 11.80 4.59 88.8% 1.23 10.3% Dec-12F 44,606 2,035 1,064 0.17 (18.3%) 15.69 0.033 1.29% 13.57 12.91 76.3% 1.16 7.7% (1.53%) 0.97 Dec-13F 49,976 2,377 1,338 0.21 25.8% 12.62 0.042 1.62% 12.14 NA 76.7% 1.08 9.1% (5.81%) 1.00 Dec-14F 54,059 2,651 1,502 0.23 12.2% 11.24 0.047 1.82% 10.86 51.10 70.9% 1.00 9.5% (2.13%) 1.00
Vol m
3.90
Current Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Wilmar International
November 29, 2012
Balance Sheet
(US$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 8,232 6,659 7,265 1,608 23,765 7,469 1,587 4,410 2,409 15,875 18,409 0 2,841 879 22,130 2,480 0 142 2,622 639 25,391 13,370 878 14,248 Dec-12F 9,312 5,953 7,248 1,608 24,121 7,976 1,717 4,410 2,409 16,512 18,409 0 2,919 879 22,207 2,480 0 142 2,622 639 25,469 14,221 944 15,165 Dec-13F 8,374 7,136 8,121 1,614 25,245 8,181 1,853 4,410 2,409 16,853 18,409 0 3,230 879 22,518 2,480 0 142 2,622 639 25,780 15,291 1,026 16,318 Dec-14F 8,404 7,661 8,784 1,625 26,475 8,171 1,996 4,410 2,409 16,986 18,409 0 3,299 879 22,588 2,480 0 142 2,622 639 25,849 16,493 1,119 17,612
Cash Flow
(US$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. Change In Working Capital (Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid)/Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 2,411 18 22 0 0 119 (335) (269) 1,966 (1,554) 53 (174) 215 (1,460) 3,088 47 0 (309) 0 (2,221) 605 Dec-12F 2,035 0 801 0 0 0 (167) (376) 2,293 (1,000) 0 0 0 (1,000) 0 0 0 (213) 0 0 (213) Dec-13F 2,377 0 (1,456) 0 0 0 (118) (473) 330 (1,000) 0 0 0 (1,000) 0 0 0 (268) 0 (0) (268) Dec-14F 2,651 0 (629) 0 0 0 (160) (531) 1,330 (1,000) 0 0 0 (1,000) 0 0 0 (300) 0 (0) (300)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (US$) BVPS (US$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 47.2% 38.3% 5.39% (1.98) 2.09 3.52 18.2% 23.3% 27.03 62.57 14.11 8.66% 6.57% Dec-12F (0.2%) (15.6%) 4.56% (1.81) 2.22 2.95 25.0% 20.0% 30.49 65.19 15.71 5.91% 5.24% Dec-13F 12.0% 16.8% 4.76% (1.95) 2.39 3.59 25.0% 20.0% 30.72 61.44 15.53 7.27% 6.12% Dec-14F 8.2% 11.5% 4.90% (1.95) 2.58 4.10 25.0% 20.0% 30.72 62.48 15.77 7.72% 6.51%
Key Drivers
Planted Estates (ha) Mature Estates (ha) FFB Yield (tonnes/ha) FFB Output Growth (%) CPO Price (US$/tonne) Dec-11A 248,326 219,143 19.8 -3.9% 1,125 Dec-12F 256,326 231,684 18.5 10.5% 990 Dec-13F 264,326 240,850 19.5 6.3% 960 Dec-14F 272,326 244,211 20.2 5.4% 1,000
201
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$1,098m
S$1,343m
US$1.40m
S$1.73m
47.5%
793.9 m shares
Donald Chua
T (65) 62108606 E donald.chua@cimb.com
Price Close
Financial Summary
Total Net Revenues (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Jun-11A 649 216.3 311.2 0.32 75.6% 5.39 0.050 2.94% 10.20 37.70 31.9% 0.71 13.8% Jun-12A 695 65.4 242.2 0.19 (39.9%) 8.97 0.070 4.08% 28.94 2.77 16.6% 0.65 7.5% Jun-13F 1,001 308.9 216.3 0.27 43.2% 6.29 0.082 4.77% 5.17 3.31 2.5% 0.60 9.9% 0% 1.30 Jun-14F 848 245.1 169.2 0.21 (21.8%) 8.04 0.064 3.73% 4.79 4.13 (14.5%) 0.57 7.3% 0% 1.02 Jun-15F 733 205.6 152.4 0.19 (9.9%) 8.93 0.058 3.36% 4.69 4.00 (22.0%) 0.55 6.3% 0% 0.98
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
1.72 1.77
Current
Target
2.00
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Properties Under Development Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Jun-12A 849 83 1,114 77 2,123 197 1,610 0 0 1,807 26 230 84 339 1,200 120 1,320 0 1,660 2,107 164 2,270 Jun-13F 1,156 82 777 111 2,126 193 1,861 0 0 2,054 26 274 82 382 1,191 174 1,365 0 1,747 2,258 175 2,433 Jun-14F 1,397 70 463 94 2,023 190 1,821 0 0 2,011 22 232 70 324 1,003 147 1,150 0 1,474 2,376 184 2,561 Jun-15F 1,659 62 351 81 2,153 187 1,794 0 0 1,981 22 201 60 284 1,048 127 1,175 0 1,459 2,483 193 2,676
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital Straight Line Adjustment (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Disposals of Investment Properties Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Jun-12A 65.4 296.2 Jun-13F 308.9 347.4 Jun-14F 245.1 288.4 Jun-15F 205.6 91.2
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Jun-12A 7.1% (70%) 9.4% (0.47) 2.65 1.44 12.3% 40.2% 77.97 N/A N/A 3.1% 1.82% Jun-13F 44.1% 372% 30.9% (0.08) 2.85 7.66 19.0% 30.0% 30.21 N/A N/A 21.2% 8.67% Jun-14F (15.3%) (21%) 28.9% 0.47 3.00 6.06 19.0% 30.0% 32.70 N/A N/A 23.9% 6.94% Jun-15F (13.6%) (16%) 28.0% 0.74 3.13 5.98 19.0% 30.0% 32.86 N/A N/A 31.1% 5.89%
103.9 (67.8) 0.0 (52.1) 345.7 (9.3) 0.0 0.0 107.0 97.7 46.5 0.0 0.0 (55.5) (92.9) (101.9)
0.0 0.0 (59.0) 597.3 (9.3) 0.0 0.0 (167.9) (177.2) (9.1) 0.0 0.0 (64.9) (38.6) (112.6)
0.0 0.0 (46.2) 487.3 (9.3) 0.0 0.0 43.7 34.4 (192.3) 0.0 0.0 (50.7) (38.3) (281.4)
0.0 0.0 (40.9) 255.9 (9.3) 0.0 0.0 47.6 38.3 46.0 0.0 0.0 (45.7) (32.3) (32.0)
RNAV RNAV (S$m) 453 538 592 132 1,715 372 33 2,120 794 2.67 Discount to RNAV 25% % of GAV 26% 31% 35% 8% 100%
Key Drivers
Unbooked Presales (m) (S$) Unbooked Presales (area: m sm) Unbooked Presales (units) Unsold attrib. landbank (area: m sm) Gross Margins (%) Contracted Sales ASP (per Sm) (S$) Residential EBIT Margin (%) Investment rev / total rev (%) Residential rev / total rev (%) Invt. properties rental margin (%) SG&A / Sales Ratio (%) Jun-12A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.5% 52.4% N/A N/A Jun-13F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3.8% 66.9% N/A N/A Jun-14F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.5% 61.0% N/A N/A Jun-15F N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.2% 54.9% N/A N/A
Investment properties PV of residential GDV Share of listed entities Other assets (Retail Ops and AFS Assets) GAV Less: FY13 net debt (incl off b/s debt) Adj for DNP debt not att. RNAV Fully diluted no. of shares (m) RNAV per share (S$)
Target price
2.00
203
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
YZJ SP / YAZG.SI Current S$0.91 S$0.75 S$0.75 -17.1%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$2,839m
S$3,468m
US$8.20m
S$10.07m
38.0%
3,836 m shares
Dry season
YZJ is undoubtedly a good shipbuilding yard but it will not be spared from a bearish shipbuilding industry. Near-term risk-reward is not attractive against 15% earnings contractions for 2013-14.
Maintain Underperform and target price at 0.8x CY13 P/BV (30% discount to its last trough) in view of its limited earnings visibility. We expect a sharp earnings deterioration in FY13 as its order book dwindles and lower-margin projects are executed.
Order miss
Order flow has been weak for YZJ at only 20% of its 2012 target of US$2bn in 9M12. This was mainly due to weak end-demand and stiff competition from shipbuilding yards in China and Korea. We believe that even the finalisation of 10,000 containerships by Seaspan at end-2012 may not be able to catalyse its stock as margins for these projects could be as low as 10%, less than half of what YZJ used to achieve. Order book now stands at US$3.6bn, a 23% drop from end-2011 levels.
1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 100 80 60 40 20
Nov-11
Price Close
Vol m
Financial Summary
Revenue (Rmbm) Operating EBITDA (Rmbm) Net Profit (Rmbm) Core EPS (Rmb) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (Rmb) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 13,558 3,584 2,955 0.79 25.9% 5.77 0.21 4.66% 3.73 NA (32.9%) 1.78 36.4% Dec-11A 15,706 5,167 3,977 1.04 31.4% 4.39 0.26 5.70% 4.43 34.40 38.9% 1.36 34.7% Dec-12F 15,164 5,320 3,895 1.02 (2.0%) 4.54 0.25 5.51% 4.19 20.05 33.0% 1.11 27.0% 0% 1.08 Dec-13F 11,324 3,635 2,602 0.68 (33.2%) 6.79 0.17 3.68% 6.50 NA 37.5% 0.99 15.4% 0% 0.90 Dec-14F 7,741 3,286 2,399 0.63 (7.8%) 7.37 0.16 3.39% 6.71 10.69 26.7% 0.90 12.8% 0% 1.11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
0.75
Current
Target
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(Rmbm) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 3,152 7,595 1,654 11,940 24,341 3,822 587 0 4,988 9,398 6,044 11,015 17,059 2,447 517 2,963 0 20,022 12,974 743 13,717 Dec-12F 4,342 7,582 1,517 14,633 28,075 4,095 587 0 4,597 9,280 7,132 11,397 18,529 2,447 517 2,963 0 21,493 15,895 (34) 15,862 Dec-13F 2,184 6,228 1,207 15,394 25,014 4,356 705 0 3,892 8,953 6,419 6,771 13,190 2,447 517 2,963 0 16,153 17,847 (34) 17,813 Dec-14F 2,504 4,258 736 16,424 23,921 4,616 846 0 3,328 8,790 5,777 4,848 10,625 1,957 517 2,474 0 13,099 19,646 (34) 19,612
Cash Flow
(Rmbm) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 5,167 (10,585) Dec-12F 5,320 (2,697) Dec-13F 3,635 (3,424) Dec-14F 3,286 (463)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (Rmb) BVPS (Rmb) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A 15.8% 44.2% 32.9% (1.39) 3.38 39.5 19.8% 21.0% 90.5 49.33 94.6 61.6% 30.3% Dec-12F (3.5%) 3.0% 35.1% (1.37) 4.14 10.5 18.8% 20.8% 183.2 57.37 127.4 22.1% 22.3% Dec-13F (25.3%) (31.7%) 32.1% (1.74) 4.65 7.8 18.8% 20.8% 222.6 61.77 116.8 13.3% 14.1% Dec-14F (31.6%) (9.6%) 42.4% (1.36) 5.12 8.2 18.8% 20.8% 247.2 72.27 114.6 10.3% 12.4%
0 0 (661) (6,079) 0 0 (277) (400) (677) 7,264 (147) (20) (910) (821) 5,366
Key Drivers
Outstanding Orderbook (Rmbm) Order Book Wins (Rmbm) Orderbook Depletion (Rmbm) Average Day Rate Per Ship (US$) No. Of Ships (unit) Average Utilisation Rate (%) Dec-11A N/A 1,250.0 15,706 N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F N/A 1,200.0 15,164 N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F N/A 640.0 11,324 N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F N/A 640.0 7,741 N/A N/A N/A
205
Construction SINGAPORE
November 28, 2012
Yongnam Holdings
YNH SP / YNAM.SI Current S$0.23 S$0.33 S$0.33 43.7%
Conviction| |
LONG TERM
Market Cap
Free Float
US$237.7m
S$290.3m
US$0.26m
S$0.32m
85.0%
1,253 m shares
Outlook intact
The outlook for the infrastructural sector continues to be positive and prospects for Yongnam remain attractive with the group bidding for projects worth S$1.3bn in Singapore and the region, all expected to commence in early 2013. While we still believe in the groups ability to win more notable projects both in Singapore and overseas, we are also a little concerned that the current competitive bidding landscape may cap its share price in the short term. In addition, it is exploring opportunities to complement its existing business and is looking into possible tie-ups with European partners on wind turbine foundations.
Price Close
Financial Summary
Revenue (S$m) Operating EBITDA (S$m) Net Profit (S$m) Core EPS (S$) Core EPS Growth FD Core P/E (x) DPS (S$) Dividend Yield EV/EBITDA (x) P/FCFE (x) Net Gearing P/BV (x) Recurring ROE % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) Dec-10A 335.1 92.8 54.40 0.044 34.9% 5.20 0.007 2.83% 4.10 NA 41.5% 1.21 25.7% Dec-11A 332.7 99.1 63.38 0.051 15.3% 4.50 0.010 4.35% 3.53 50.29 22.1% 0.99 24.0% Dec-12F 290.0 76.8 42.52 0.034 (33.3%) 6.76 0.006 2.61% 3.81 5.07 1.5% 0.88 13.8% (0.000%) 0.92 Dec-13F 451.0 108.1 69.25 0.055 62.6% 4.17 0.006 2.61% 2.95 NA 7.8% 0.74 19.4% 0.000% 1.20 Dec-14F 468.3 108.9 75.45 0.060 8.8% 3.83 0.006 2.61% 2.37 5.53 (6.8%) 0.63 17.9% (0.000%) 1.22
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
Current
Target
0.33
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA
Yongnam Holdings
November 28, 2012
Balance Sheet
(S$m) Total Cash And Equivalents Total Debtors Inventories Total Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Investments Intangible Assets Total Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-current Assets Short-term Debt Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Total Creditors Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Total Long-term Debt Hybrid Debt Instruments - Debt Component Total Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-current Liabilities Total Provisions Total Liabilities Shareholders' Equity Minority Interests Total Equity Dec-11A 28.0 47.1 155.9 3.8 234.9 302.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 303.4 78.5 43.1 67.7 189.3 13.9 43.7 57.6 0.0 246.8 291.5 0.0 291.5 Dec-12F 77.4 51.6 135.1 3.8 268.0 298.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 299.4 75.5 47.7 67.2 190.4 6.9 43.7 50.6 0.0 240.9 326.4 0.0 326.4 Dec-13F 62.1 74.1 210.1 3.8 350.1 298.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 299.4 78.5 55.6 69.7 203.8 13.9 43.7 57.6 0.0 261.4 388.2 0.0 388.2 Dec-14F 118.6 77.0 218.1 3.8 417.5 298.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 299.4 77.0 57.7 72.0 206.8 10.4 43.7 54.1 0.0 260.8 456.1 0.0 456.1
Cash Flow
(S$m) EBITDA Cash Flow from Investments & Associates Change In Working Capital (Incr) / Decr in Total Provisions Other Non-Cash (Income) / Expense Other Operating Cashflow Net Interest (Paid) / Received Tax Paid Cashflow From Operations Capex Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments Other Investing Cashflow Cash Flow From Investing Debt Raised/(repaid) Proceeds From Issue Of Shares Shares Repurchased Dividends Paid Preferred Dividends Other Financing Cashflow Cash Flow From Financing Dec-11A 99.1 (2.4) Dec-12F 76.8 17.7 Dec-13F 108.1 (89.7) Dec-14F 108.9 (11.2)
Key Ratios
Revenue Growth Operating EBITDA Growth Operating EBITDA Margin Net Cash Per Share (S$) BVPS (S$) Gross Interest Cover Effective Tax Rate Net Dividend Payout Ratio Accounts Receivables Days Inventory Days Accounts Payables Days ROIC (%) ROCE (%) Dec-11A (0.7%) 6.8% 29.8% (0.051) 0.23 23.24 15.8% 19.8% 56.37 257.7 88.4 21.1% 20.8% Dec-12F (12.8%) (22.5%) 26.5% (0.004) 0.26 19.04 15.0% 17.7% 62.33 248.6 77.6 13.2% 13.3% Dec-13F 55.5% 40.8% 24.0% (0.024) 0.31 15.79 20.0% 10.9% 50.90 191.1 57.2 23.5% 19.8% Dec-14F 3.8% 0.7% 23.3% 0.025 0.36 15.56 18.0% 10.0% 58.89 226.6 60.0 19.3% 17.4%
(5.0) (3.3) 0.0 88.4 (65.6) 5.7 0.0 0.0 (59.9) (22.8) 1.5 0.0 (8.1) 0.0 (29.5)
1.6 (2.8) (7.5) 85.8 (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (20.0) (9.2) 0.0 0.0 (7.5) 0.0 (16.7)
0.0 (5.6) (17.3) (4.5) (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (20.0) 10.8 0.0 0.0 (7.5) 0.0 3.3
0.0 (5.7) (16.6) 75.5 (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (20.0) (3.2) 0.0 0.0 (7.6) 0.0 (10.7)
Key Drivers
(S$m) Outstanding Orderbook Orderbook Depletion Orderbook Replenishment ASP (% chg, main prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%, main prod./serv.) Util. rate (%, main prod./serv.) ASP (% chg, 2ndary prod./serv.) Unit sales grth (%,2ndary prod/serv) Util. rate (%, 2ndary prod/serv) Dec-11A 628.1 N/A 233.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-12F 512.3 N/A 211.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-13F 462.5 N/A 224.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dec-14F 412.7 N/A 238.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
207
Yongnam Holdings
November 28, 2012
208
Yongnam Holdings
November 28, 2012
Appendices
209
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
BBG code Company name SIE SP SIA SP TGR SP CWT SP GGR SP IFAR SP MII SP NOBL SP OLAM SP WIL SP KEP SP SCI SP STE SP YNH SP DFI SP PRA SP SSG SP MINZ SP PETRA SP SUPER SP THBEV SP DBS SP OCBC SP SGX SP UOB SP BIG SP IHH SP RFMD SP Aviation SIA Engineering Singapore Airlines Tiger Airways Commodities CWT Limited Golden Agri-Resources Indofood Agri Resources Mewah International Noble Group Olam International Wilmar International Conglomerates Keppel Corporation Sembcorp Industries ST Engineering Construction and Materials Yongnam Holdings Consumer Discretionary Dairy Farm Int'l Parkson Retail Asia Sheng Siong Group Consumer Staples China Minzhong Food Petra Foods Super Group Thai Beverage Financial Services DBS Group OCBC Singapore Exchange United Overseas Bank Health Care Biosensors Int'l IHH Healthcare Raffles Medical Group
Closing Price 4.29 10.50 0.71 1.24 0.63 1.24 0.47 1.09 1.56 3.14 10.63 4.98 3.53 0.23 10.72 1.33 0.51 0.79 2.80 3.15 0.41 14.17 9.21 6.70 18.26 1.14 1.26 2.43
Target % up / price (down) 4.70 11.00 0.83 1.68 0.80 1.51 0.45 1.45 1.59 3.90 13.20 6.26 3.97 0.33 12.00 1.75 0.58 0.82 1.92 3.27 0.60 17.36 10.63 7.26 20.56 1.79 1.53 3.52 0.53 1.69 10% 5% 17% 36% 26% 23% -2% 33% 2% 24% 24% 26% 12% 44% 12% 32% 15% 5% -31% 4% 49% 23% 15% 8% 13% 57% 22% 45% 41% 28%
Recom. Outperform Neutral Neutral Outperform Outperform Outperform Underperform Outperform Trading Sell Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Neutral Underperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Neutral Neutral Underperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform
Free Float (%) 19% 45% 45% 40% 50% 31% 36% 50% 41% 30% 60% 50% 38% 85% 22% 25% 65% 56% 45% 25% 33% 70% 65% 76% 80% 42% 31% 45% 79% 32%
Market Cap (US$m) 3,872 10,071 477 609 6,663 1,442 574 5,792 3,052 16,467 15,630 7,281 8,892 238 14,478 737 572 358 1,401 1,438 8,325 28,263 25,860 5,862 23,532 1,601 8,276 1,083 374 615
Month end Mar 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Mar 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Mar 12
Price/ BVPS (X) 2012 2013 2014 3.63x 0.96x 1.85x 1.31x 0.80x 1.01x 1.04x 1.02x 1.07x 1.16x 2.24x 1.93x 5.80x 0.88x 10.20x 3.52x 4.58x 0.56x 4.27x 4.29x 3.74x 1.09x 1.25x 8.64x 1.27x 1.75x 1.42x 3.51x 0.78x 1.26x 3.47x 0.93x 1.31x 1.16x 0.76x 0.93x 1.01x 0.93x 0.98x 1.08x 2.02x 1.75x 5.54x 0.74x 8.22x 3.21x 4.47x 0.46x 3.87x 3.89x 3.24x 1.03x 1.18x 8.61x 1.18x 1.83x 1.38x 3.13x 0.75x 1.17x 3.31x 0.91x 1.13x 1.02x 0.72x 0.85x 0.96x 0.85x 0.89x 1.00x 1.84x 1.58x 5.27x 0.64x 6.68x 2.86x 4.35x 0.39x 3.51x 3.53x 2.80x 0.98x 1.11x 8.53x 1.09x 1.79x 1.33x 2.73x 0.71x 1.07x
2-Yr ROAE (recurring) % P/E (Recurrent FD) (X) forward 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 EPS Cagr 22.1% 3.2% -16.3% 15.9% 5.2% 8.0% 3.2% 8.2% 10.4% 7.7% 25.0% 17.8% 31.3% 13.8% 51.7% 21.8% 20.1% 20.2% 17.2% 19.4% 26.1% 11.5% 11.6% 37.1% 12.5% 12.1% 2.9% 15.6% 0.1% 12.1% 22.7% 5.4% 6.8% 15.2% 5.8% 8.5% 4.0% 11.4% 11.7% 9.1% 18.3% 15.8% 31.5% 19.4% 47.3% 20.0% 25.8% 18.7% 16.2% 19.5% 28.8% 11.1% 10.6% 38.9% 11.6% 15.2% 4.8% 16.8% 5.3% 13.5% 23.1% 6.8% 9.8% 14.9% 6.6% 9.0% 5.3% 12.2% 13.1% 9.5% 16.7% 16.1% 32.0% 18.0% 44.6% 21.1% 27.5% 17.7% 16.1% 19.6% 28.8% 11.0% 10.8% 40.6% 11.5% 17.4% 5.7% 18.7% 16.6x 30.6x -12.6x 9.0x 15.1x 13.2x 33.1x 13.0x 13.1x 15.7x 9.5x 11.5x 19.0x 6.8x 22.0x 17.8x 20.6x 3.0x 26.0x 23.4x 15.2x 9.7x 11.2x 23.3x 10.5x 13.4x 54.9x nm 15.6x 17.7x 22.5x 8.1x 13.4x 11.3x 25.4x 8.6x 10.2x 12.6x 11.6x 11.6x 18.0x 4.2x 19.2x 16.7x 17.6x 2.7x 25.0x 20.9x 12.0x 9.5x 11.5x 22.2x 10.6x 11.8x 29.1x 19.6x 14.5x 8.7x 14.6x 13.5x 12.3x 7.3x 11.2x 9.9x 18.5x 7.3x 8.2x 11.2x 11.5x 10.3x 16.9x 3.8x 16.5x 14.3x 16.0x 2.4x 22.9x 18.9x 10.4x 9.1x 10.6x 21.1x 9.8x 10.4x 23.7x 15.6x 11.2x 7.8x 6.3% 12.5% N.A. 26.3% -9.4% -7.2% -25.0% 44.3% 19.6% 0.2% 4.3% -2.9% 6.2% 3.9% 14.0% 8.1% 11.8% 7.6% -3.9% 24.8% 33.4% 6.6% 8.0% 3.0% 7.3% 8.6% 80.2% 13.4% -7.5% 35.7%
Net Gearing Net Div Yield % FY12 FY13 2012 2013 -39% -32% 170% 43% 9% 5% 34% 48% 181% 76% 14% -15% -40% 2% -55% -79% -90% 15% 140% -31% 142% N.A> N.A> -84% N.A> -25% 5% -8% 35% 34% -37% -31% 103% 20% 9% 1% 35% 41% 189% 76% 12% -12% -39% 8% -67% -72% -90% 2% 120% -30% 117% N.A> N.A> -84% N.A> -45% 2% -10% 56% 43% 5.1% 4.2% 0.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.6% 2.1% 3.0% 1.3% 4.7% 3.9% 4.7% 2.6% 2.7% 1.1% 5.3% 0.0% 1.5% 2.2% 3.3% 4.7% 3.7% 4.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.8% 5.4% 2.8% 0.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.8% 2.9% 2.8% 1.6% 3.9% 3.8% 5.0% 2.6% 3.1% 2.4% 5.1% 0.0% 1.6% 2.4% 4.1% 4.3% 3.8% 4.5% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9%
Industrial Goods and Services MIDAS SP Midas Holdings 0.38 TAT SP Tat Hong Holdings 1.33
210
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
BBG code Company name CD SP MRT SP SPH SP ASL SP COS SP CSE SP EZI SP EZRA SP MMT SP OTML SP SMM SP SOH SP SWIB SP YZJ SP ARA SP BS SP CAPL SP CMA SP CIT SP FNN SP GLP SP HOBEE SP KPLD SP OUE SP SL SP UEM SP UOL SP WP SP WINGT SP AREIT SP ART SP CACHE SP CCT SP CT SP CDREIT SP FCT SP FCOT SP KREIT SP Land Transport ComfortDelGro SMRT Corporation Media Singapore Press Holdings Oil Equipment and Services ASL Marine Cosco Corporation CSE Global Ezion Holdings Ezra Holdings Mermaid Maritime Otto Marine Sembcorp Marine STX OSV Swiber Holdings Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Property ARA Asset Management Bukit Sembawang Estates CapitaLand CapitaMalls Asia City Developments Fraser & Neave Global Logistic Properties Ho Bee Investments Keppel Land Overseas Union Enterprise Singapore Land United Engineers UOL Group Wheelock Properties (S) Wing Tai Holdings REITS Ascendas REIT Ascott Residence Trust Cache Logistics Trust Capitacommercial Trust CapitaMall Trust CDL Hospitality Trust Frasers Centrepoint Trust Frasers Commercial Trust Keppel REIT
Closing Price 1.68 1.69 4.09 0.64 0.90 0.80 1.40 1.04 0.32 0.08 4.40 1.36 0.59 0.91 1.63 5.77 3.46 1.91 11.52 9.42 2.63 1.60 3.47 2.59 6.79 2.52 5.56 1.84 1.72 2.38 1.29 1.20 1.60 2.07 1.92 1.98 1.24 1.22
Target % up / price (down) 1.76 1.78 4.39 0.85 0.88 1.06 1.68 1.55 0.44 0.07 5.01 1.47 0.84 0.75 1.81 6.45 4.02 1.99 10.80 9.85 2.93 1.93 4.00 3.38 8.44 3.13 6.55 2.00 2.00 2.68 1.38 1.36 1.69 2.23 2.15 2.18 1.37 1.26 5% 5% 7% 33% -2% 34% 20% 49% 41% -20% 14% 8% 42% -17% 12% 12% 16% 4% -6% 5% 12% 21% 15% 30% 24% 24% 18% 9% 17% 12% 7% 14% 6% 8% 12% 10% 11% 3%
Recom. Neutral Underperform Outperform Outperform Neutral Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Underperform Neutral Neutral Outperform Underperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Neutral Underperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Outperform Neutral Outperform Outperform Neutral Outperform Underperform Underperform Neutral Outperform Outperform Neutral
Free Float (%) 82% 38% 90% 37% 36% 86% 70% 64% 49% 51% 37% 28% 70% 38% 53% 41% 60% 30% 55% 59% 49% 24% 53% 33% 30% 80% 50% 20% 48% 81% 41% 88% 68% 70% 67% 38% 75% 23%
Market Cap (US$m) 2,879 2,104 5,343 221 1,650 336 988 833 202 190 7,519 1,314 294 2,839 1,022 1,223 12,040 6,079 8,575 11,103 10,241 912 4,386 1,929 2,293 626 3,502 1,802 1,099 4,359 1,203 687 3,712 5,645 1,519 1,331 654 2,628
Month end Dec 11 Mar 12 Aug 12 Jun 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Aug 12 Sep 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Mar 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Sep 12 Sep 12 Dec 11
Price/ BVPS (X) 2012 2013 2014 1.73x 3.08x 2.90x 0.73x 1.48x 1.64x 1.93x 0.77x 0.49x 0.63x 3.47x 2.23x 0.72x 1.11x 5.57x 1.23x 0.95x 1.12x 1.51x 1.82x 1.21x 0.63x 0.90x 0.76x 0.62x 0.61x 0.79x 0.75x 0.62x 1.23x 0.92x 1.28x 0.99x 1.29x 1.20x 1.29x 0.81x 0.96x 1.63x 2.88x 2.90x 0.68x 1.42x 1.41x 1.60x 0.68x 0.47x 0.65x 3.20x 2.04x 0.65x 0.99x 5.53x 1.08x 0.93x 1.10x 1.42x 1.70x 1.16x 0.59x 0.86x 0.75x 0.60x 0.59x 0.75x 0.73x 0.59x 1.22x 0.94x 1.29x 0.99x 1.28x 1.20x 1.29x 0.83x 0.97x 1.53x 2.69x 2.90x 0.63x 1.36x 1.22x 1.25x 0.64x na 0.66x 2.92x 1.75x 0.57x 0.90x 5.46x 0.95x 0.89x 1.07x 1.31x 1.58x 1.04x 0.55x 0.82x 0.73x 0.58x 0.55x 0.71x 0.71x 0.56x 1.22x 0.96x 1.30x 0.99x 1.28x 1.20x 1.29x 0.84x 0.97x
2-Yr ROAE (recurring) % P/E (Recurrent FD) (X) forward 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 EPS Cagr 12.9% 16.6% 16.7% 8.9% 8.2% 21.7% 16.5% 5.4% 1.6% -19.4% 23.5% 30.9% 10.7% 27.0% 35.7% 16.4% 2.3% 3.7% 6.8% 8.5% 4.7% 8.0% 9.1% 3.3% 4.6% 3.4% 6.0% 3.8% 8.8% 7.7% 4.8% 8.2% 4.4% 5.8% 7.1% 7.0% 2.1% 3.7% 12.2% 16.9% 17.6% 10.1% 7.7% 22.2% 22.0% 7.5% 4.1% -3.4% 20.3% 28.7% 11.7% 15.4% 33.5% 16.8% 4.3% 4.0% 8.8% 10.4% 5.0% 6.5% 6.9% 3.8% 5.1% 5.9% 6.8% 4.6% 8.6% 7.5% 5.3% 8.4% 4.6% 6.0% 7.2% 7.2% 3.6% 4.2% 12.0% 16.9% 18.4% 10.1% 7.5% 21.9% 24.3% 8.3% na -2.7% 23.1% 24.5% 11.9% 12.8% 34.4% 14.8% 6.5% 4.7% 9.9% 10.7% 5.1% 8.2% 6.9% 4.7% 5.4% 8.5% 6.7% 6.1% 6.8% 7.7% 5.6% 9.0% 4.5% 6.5% 7.4% 7.4% 4.1% 4.6% 13.9x 19.0x 17.4x 8.5x 18.5x 8.3x 15.7x 16.6x 31.6x -2.8x 15.4x 7.0x 8.4x 4.5x 16.9x 8.0x 47.0x 31.5x 22.9x 22.1x 27.0x 8.3x 11.0x 24.0x 13.6x 17.2x 13.5x 20.0x 7.4x 16.3x 19.5x 15.7x 22.4x 22.6x 17.0x 18.9x 40.7x 26.2x 13.7x 17.6x 16.5x 7.0x 18.9x 6.8x 8.1x 10.6x 11.7x -19x 16.4x 7.4x 7.4x 6.8x 16.6x 6.8x 24.5x 27.4x 16.5x 17.0x 23.7x 9.4x 12.7x 19.7x 11.9x 10.0x 11.4x 16.3x 7.1x 16.2x 17.5x 15.3x 21.5x 21.3x 16.7x 17.9x 22.9x 22.9x 13.2x 16.5x 15.8x 6.4x 18.5x 6.0x 5.8x 8.7x na -24.3x 13.2x 7.7x 6.5x 7.4x 16.0x 6.8x 15.7x 22.9x 13.7x 15.3x 21.5x 7.0x 12.1x 15.7x 10.9x 6.7x 10.9x 11.8x 8.5x 15.8x 17.1x 14.4x 21.8x 19.7x 16.2x 17.5x 20.3x 21.0x 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 18.4% -12.6% 47.2% 57.2% 37.1% N.A. -61.8% -14.0% -22.6% 20.6% -19.6% 2.7% 24.6% 37.9% 28.6% 4.9% 20.5% 33.1% -4.9% 23.3% -43.8% 2.8% -45.6% -15.8% -16.0% -2.2% 4.3% 6.8% 3.8% 6.6% 8.5% 2.7% 17.4% 52.3% 24.7%
Net Gearing Net Div Yield % FY12 FY13 2012 2013 4% -6% 39% 52% 65% 7% 94% 110% 11% 171% -23% 25% 103% 33% -41% -2% 46% 43% 30% 28% 31% 35% 23% 54% 8% 88% 29% -25% 17% 61% 58% 43% 43% 53% 30% 44% 22% 69% 2% 31% 45% 54% 57% -6% 99% 90% 5% 190% 3% 17% 113% 38% -41% 7% 45% 59% 22% 21% 33% 25% 14% 54% 4% 77% 23% -25% 2% 49% 61% 58% 45% 47% 31% 45% 41% 73% 3.6% 3.6% 5.9% 2.9% 2.4% 5.0% 0.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 16.4% 0.0% 5.5% 3.1% 3.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.1% 2.9% 4.0% 1.6% 3.3% 4.4% 5.8% 6.8% 6.8% 5.0% 4.7% 6.0% 5.1% 5.7% 6.4% 3.6% 3.4% 6.1% 3.1% 2.4% 5.7% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 5.0% 2.7% 3.7% 3.1% 2.8% 2.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.9% 1.4% 3.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 4.0% 1.9% 3.3% 4.2% 6.1% 7.2% 7.2% 5.1% 4.9% 6.1% 5.4% 6.5% 6.3%
211
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
BBG code Company name MCT SP MINT SP MLT SP PREIT SP PCRT SP SGREIT SP SUN SP REITS - cont'd Mapletree Commercial Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Mapletree Logistics Trust Parkway Life REIT Perennial China Retail Trust Starhill Global REIT Suntec REIT
Closing Price 1.21 1.38 1.10 2.13 0.49 0.75 1.55 1.86 1.30 1.11 4.00 0.50 0.25 0.28 0.81 0.47 7.65 2.70 3.17 3.63 2.77 0.32 1.24 1.28 3,012
Target % up / price (down) 1.39 1.50 1.21 2.28 0.59 0.83 1.72 2.10 1.29 1.12 0.84 0.56 0.29 0.27 0.74 0.59 9.55 2.96 3.22 4.35 2.82 0.48 1.20 1.41 15% 8% 11% 7% 21% 10% 11% 13% -1% 1% -79% 13% 18% -2% -9% 25% 25% 10% 2% 20% 2% 51% -3% 11%
Recom. Outperform Neutral Neutral Neutral Outperform Neutral Neutral Neutral Underperform Underperform Underperform Neutral Neutral Underperform Underperform Outperform Outperform Neutral Underperform Outperform Neutral Outperform Neutral Neutral
Free Float (%) 81% 70% 59% 64% 51% 71% 95% 58% 14% 30% 40% 25% 56% 37% 16% 21% 70% 39% 44% 33% 56% 20% 25% 30%
Market Cap (US$m) 1,853 1,841 2,175 1,055 452 1,193 2,843 809 586 2,351 674 221 102 94 580 825 1,718 2,018 41,373 5,098 2,517 2,448 12,396 862
Month end Mar 12 Mar 12 Mar 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Dec 11 Mar 12 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 11
Price/ BVPS (X) 2012 2013 2014 1.27x 1.36x 1.21x 1.43x 0.80x 0.87x 0.78x 2.51x 1.65x 1.03x 0.39x 1.40x 1.25x 0.52x 1.17x 7.37x 1.16x 7.05x 2.09x 127x 2.14x 0.87x 1.66x 1.10x 1.28x 1.36x 1.21x 1.43x 0.76x 0.87x 0.79x 2.19x 1.50x 1.01x 0.45x 1.28x 1.16x 0.51x 1.10x 6.04x 1.18x 6.34x 1.99x 168x 2.09x 0.80x 1.52x 0.97x 1.28x 1.36x 1.21x 1.43x 0.80x 0.87x 0.79x 1.88x 1.37x 0.93x 0.52x 1.15x 1.06x 0.49x 1.04x 5.06x 1.16x 5.79x 1.89x 91.4x 1.98x 0.73x 1.38x 0.90x
2-Yr ROAE (recurring) % P/E (Recurrent FD) (X) forward 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 EPS Cagr 6.0% 8.5% 8.1% 6.8% -0.7% 5.5% 3.7% 17.6% 13.7% -9.8% -18.4% 18.6% 13.8% 1.5% 3.4% 57.9% 7.6% 45.4% 14.8% 992% 12.5% 7.3% 9.2% 5.9% 6.4% 8.6% 8.0% 7.0% 1.5% 6.2% 3.1% 19.1% 14.0% -6.6% -15.2% 18.4% 14.5% 6.1% 7.9% 49.1% 9.2% 45.2% 14.8% 896% 14.1% 8.2% 8.4% 9.9% 6.7% 8.9% 8.2% 7.7% 2.7% 6.4% 3.4% 20.1% 13.6% 8.9% -12.2% 21.0% 17.0% 7.9% 8.4% 44.5% 10.9% 42.3% 15.3% 815% 14.8% 8.7% 9.4% 6.0% 21.2x 16.2x 15.4x 21.0x -104x 15.7x 20.9x 17.4x 12.6x -9.8x -1.9x 7.6x 9.1x 35.0x 33.9x 14.4x 15.6x 16.1x 14.3x 17.5x 17.2x 12.9x 21.6x 19.4x 19.8x 15.8x 15.1x 20.6x 53.1x 14.0x 25.0x 15.4x 11.2x -15.5x -2.8x 7.3x 8.3x 8.4x 14.3x 13.5x 13.3x 14.8x 13.8x 16.1x 15.5x 10.7x 18.8x 10.4x 19.1x 15.3x 14.9x 18.7x 29.2x 13.6x 23.3x 12.6x 10.5x 10.9x -4.0x 5.8x 6.5x 6.3x 12.7x 12.4x 11.2x 14.3x 12.7x 14.5x 14.2x 9.3x 15.4x 15.5x 14.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.0% N.A. 8.8% -24.2% 8.6% 3.5% -42.6% 17.9% -13.0% 15.2% 15.7% 27.8% 12.0% 2.1% 0.3% -0.6% 10.6% 8.8% 7.7% -11.3% 23.3%
Net Gearing Net Div Yield % FY12 FY13 2012 2013 60% 57% 52% 63% 24% 41% 57% 13% 65% 140% 230% 11% -10% 53% -1% -32% -19% 68% 32% 710% -19% 6% -33% 20% 61% 57% 56% 74% 63% 40% 61% 8% 63% 163% 322% 1% -10% 56% 15% -42% -17% 64% 27% 980% -19% 2% -41% 26% 5.0% 6.4% 6.5% 4.7% 7.9% 5.9% 6.0% 1.9% 2.5% 0.0% 1.3% 4.1% 6.5% 4.5% 0.8% 4.2% 7.2% 4.1% 4.9% 5.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.8% 1.6% 5.3% 6.6% 6.7% 5.1% 7.8% 6.7% 5.9% 1.4% 2.8% 0.4% 1.3% 5.6% 6.5% 4.5% 3.1% 4.5% 7.2% 4.4% 5.1% 6.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.8% 2.9%
Services GPACK SP Goodpack KPTT SP Keppel T&T NOL SP STX SP AMTK SP ARMS SP BWAY SP HIP SP SILV SP VMS SP M1 SP ST SP STH SP SATS SP Shipping Neptune Orient Lines STX Pan Ocean Technology Amtek Engineering Armstrong Industrial Broadway Industrial Hi-P International Silverlake Axis Ltd Venture Corporation Telecommunications M1 Limited SingTel StarHub Transport Infrastructure SATS Ltd
Travel and Leisure GENHK SP Genting Hong Kong GENS SP Genting Singapore HYF SP FSSTI Utilities Hyflux
212
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
213
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
DISCLAIMER
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein (including the Restrictions on Distributions set out below). Any failure to comply with these limitations may constitute a violation of law. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this report may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB. Unless otherwise specified, this report is based upon sources which CIMB considers to be reasonable. Such sources will, unless otherwise specified, for market data, be market data and prices available from the main stock exchange or market where the relevant security is listed, or, where appropriate, any other market. Information on the accounts and business of company(ies) will generally be based on published statements of the company(ies), information disseminated by regulatory information services, other publicly available information and information resulting from our research. Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as of the date of the document in which they are contained and must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein will occur. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of investments may go down as well as up and those investing may, depending on the investments in question, lose more than the initial investment. No report shall constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of CIMB or its affiliates to any person to buy or sell any investments. CIMB, its affiliates and related companies, their directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of, or may be materially interested in, any such securities. Further, CIMB, its affiliates and its related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them to or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory, underwriting or placement services for or relating to such company(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this report. CIMB or its affiliates may enter into an agreement with the company(ies) covered in this report relating to the production of research reports. CIMB may disclose the contents of this report to the company(ies) covered by it and may have amended the contents of this report following such disclosure. The analyst responsible for the production of this report hereby certifies that the views expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal views and opinions about any and all of the issuers or securities analysed in this report and were prepared independently and autonomously. No part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations(s) or view(s) in this report. CIMB prohibits the analyst(s) who prepared this research report from receiving any compensation, incentive or bonus based on specific investment banking transactions or for providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company. Information barriers and other arrangements may be established where necessary to prevent conflicts of interests arising. However, the analyst(s) may receive compensation that is based on his/their coverage of company(ies) in the performance of his/their duties or the performance of his/their recommendations and the research personnel involved in the preparation of this report may also participate in the solicitation of the businesses as described above. In reviewing this research report, an investor should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the duties of confidentiality, available on request. Reports relating to a specific geographical area are produced by the corresponding CIMB entity as listed in the table below. The term CIMB shall denote, where appropriate, the relevant entity distributing or disseminating the report in the particular jurisdiction referenced below, or, in every other case, CIMB Group Holdings Berhad ("CIMBGH") and its affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies. Country CIMB Entity Regulated by Australia CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited Australian Securities & Investments Commission Hong Kong CIMB Securities Limited Securities and Futures Commission Hong Kong Indonesia PT CIMB Securities Indonesia Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal & Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam) Malaysia CIMB Investment Bank Berhad Securities Commission Malaysia Singapore CIMB Research Pte. Ltd. Monetary Authority of Singapore Thailand CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd. Securities and Exchange Commission Thailand (i) As of November 28, 2012, CIMB has a proprietary position in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any other derivatives) in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report: (Affin Holdings, AirAsia Bhd, Alliance Financial Group, AMMB Holdings, Ascendas REIT, ASL Marine, Axiata Group, Bangkok Bank, Bank Central Asia, Bank Danamon, Bank Mandiri, Bank of China, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, BIMB Holdings, Bukit Sembawang Estates, Bursa Malaysia, Cache Logistics Trust, Capitacommercial Trust, CapitaLand, CapitaMall Trust, CapitaMalls Asia, China Construction Bank, China Mobile Limited, City Developments, ComfortDelGro, Cosco Corporation, CWT Limited, DBS Group, DiGi.com, Ezion Holdings, Ezra Holdings, Felda Global Ventures, Fraser & Neave, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Frasers Commercial Trust, Genting Hong Kong, Genting Plantations, Genting Singapore, Golden Agri-Resources, Goodpack, Hong Leong Bank, Hyflux, ICBC, IGB REIT, IHH Healthcare, Indofood Agri Resources, IOI Corporation, Jasmine International, Kasikornbank, Keppel Corporation, Keppel Land, Keppel T&T, Krung Thai Bank, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, M1 Limited, Malayan Banking Bhd, Malaysia Airports Holdings, Malaysian Airline System, Malaysian Bulk Carriers, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Maxis Berhad, Media Prima Bhd, MSM Malaysia Holdings, Neptune Orient Lines, Noble Group, OCBC, Olam International, Public Bank Bhd, Raffles Medical Group, RHB Capital Bhd, SATS Ltd, Sembcorp Industries, Sembcorp Marine, Shin Corporation, Siam Commercial Bank, Sime Darby Bhd, Singapore Airlines, Singapore Exchange, Singapore Land, Singapore Press Holdings, SingTel, SMRT Corporation, StarHub, STX OSV, Suntec REIT, Sunway REIT, Super Group, Telekom Malaysia, Total Access Communication, True Corporation, United Engineers, United Overseas Bank, UOL Group, Venture Corporation, Wheelock Properties (S), Wilmar International, Wing Tai Holding|a) EFACustomPropPosn| (ii) As of November 29, 2012, the analyst(s) who prepared this report, has / have an interest in the securities (which may include but not limited to shares, warrants, call warrants and/or any other derivatives) in the following company or companies covered or recommended in this report: (a) Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Frasers Commercial Trust, Goodpack, Starhill Global REI| The information contained in this research report is prepared from data believed to be correct and reliable at the time of issue of this report. CIMB may or may not issue regular reports on the subject matter of this report at any frequency and may cease to do so or change the periodicity of reports at any time. CIMB is under no obligation to update this report in the event of a material change to the information contained in this report. This report does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. CIMB or any of its affiliates does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reliability or fairness of any such information and opinion contained in this report. Neither CIMB nor any of its affiliates nor its related persons shall be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages) of any reliance thereon or usage thereof. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation amongst CIMB and its affiliates clients generally and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. The information and opinions in this report are not and should not be construed or considered as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell the subject securities, related investments or other financial instruments thereof. Investors are advised to make their own independent evaluation of the information contained in this research report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consult their own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects before participating in any transaction in respect of the securities of company(ies) covered in this research report. The securities of such company(ies) may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors.
214
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Australia: Despite anything in this report to the contrary, this research is provided in Australia by CIMB Securities (Australia) Limited (CSAL) (ABN 84 002 768 701, AFS Licence number 240 530). CSAL is a Market Participant of ASX Ltd, a Clearing Participant of ASX Clear Pty Ltd, a Settlement Participant of ASX Settlement Pty Ltd, and, a participant of Chi X Australia Pty Ltd. This research is only available in Australia to persons who are wholesale clients (within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and is supplied solely for the use of such wholesale clients and shall not be distributed or passed on to any other person. This research has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of the individual recipient. France: Only qualified investors within the meaning of French law shall have access to this report. This report shall not be considered as an offer to subscribe to, or used in connection with, any offer for subscription or sale or marketing or direct or indirect distribution of financial instruments and it is not intended as a solicitation for the purchase of any financial instrument. Hong Kong: This report is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by CIMB Securities Limited (CHK) which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) activities. Any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact the Head of Sales at CIMB Securities Limited. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CHK has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CHK. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CHK. Unless permitted to do so by the securities laws of Hong Kong, no person may issue or have in its possession for the purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, any advertisement, invitation or document relating to the securities covered in this report, which is directed at, or the contents of which are likely to be accessed or read by, the public in Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the securities laws of Hong Kong). Indonesia: This report is issued and distributed by PT CIMB Securities Indonesia (CIMBI). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBI has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBI. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBI. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed in Indonesia or to any Indonesian citizens wherever they are domiciled or to Indonesia residents except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations. Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (CIMB). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMB has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB. New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of, and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money pursuant to Section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978. Singapore: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Research Pte Ltd (CIMBR). Recipients of this report are to contact CIMBR in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBR has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only. If the recipient of this research report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CIMBR accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report without any disclaimer limiting or otherwise curtailing such legal responsibility. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBR. As of November 28, 2012, CIMBR does not have a proprietary position in the recommended securities in this report. Sweden: This report contains only marketing information and has not been approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. The distribution of this report is not an offer to sell to any person in Sweden or a solicitation to any person in Sweden to buy any instruments described herein and may not be forwarded to the public in Sweden. Taiwan: This research report is not an offer or marketing of foreign securities in Taiwan. The securities as referred to in this research report have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China pursuant to relevant securities laws and regulations and may not be offered or sold within the Republic of China through a public offering or in circumstances which constitutes an offer within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Law of the Republic of China that requires a registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of the Republic of China. Thailand: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Securities (Thailand) Company Limited (CIMBS). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMBS has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report. This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMBS. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMBS. Corporate Governance Report: The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. CIMBS does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. Score Range 90 100 80 89 70 79 Below 70 or No Survey Result Description Excellent Very Good Good N/A United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by, deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided to any person other than the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to lead to the sale of investments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory of the United Arab Emirates. United Kingdom and Europe: In the United Kingdom and European Economic Area, this report is being disseminated by CIMB Securities (UK) Limited (CIMB UK). CIMB UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and its registered office is at 27 Knightsbridge, London, SW1X 7YB. This report is for distribution only to, and is solely directed at, selected persons on the basis that those persons: (a) are persons that are eligible counterparties and professional clients of CIMB UK; (b) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the Order); (c) are persons falling within Article 49 (2) (a) to (d) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Order; (d) are outside the United Kingdom; or (e) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) in connection with any investments to which
215
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
this report relates may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons). This report is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Only where this report is labelled as non-independent, it does not provide an impartial or objective assessment of the subject matter and does not constitute independent "investment research" under the applicable rules of the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Consequently, any such non-independent report will not have been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and will not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. United States: This research report is distributed in the United States of America by CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, a U.S.-registered broker-dealer and a related company of CIMB Research Pte Ltd, CIMB Investment Bank Berhad, PT CIMB Securities Indonesia, CIMB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd, CIMB Securities Limited, and is distributed solely to persons who qualify as "U.S. Institutional Investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. This communication is only for Institutional Investors whose ordinary business activities involve investing in shares, bonds and associated securities and/or derivative securities and who have professional experience in such investments. Any person who is not a U.S. Institutional Investor or Major Institutional Investor must not rely on this communication. The delivery of this research report to any person in the United States of America is not a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. CIMB Securities (USA) Inc, is a FINRA/SIPC member and takes responsibility for the content of this report. For further information or to place an order in any of the above-mentioned securities please contact a registered representative of CIMB Securities (USA) Inc. Other jurisdictions: In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is only for distribution to professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.
Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 31 October 2012 805 companies under coverage Rating Distribution (%) Outperform/Buy/Trading Buy Neutral Underperform/Sell/Trading Sell 55.6% 33.6% 10.9% Investment Banking clients (%) 6.1% 1.9% 4.8%
Recommendation Framework #1 *
Stock
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a benchmark's total return. UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. relevant relevant relevant relevant relevant
Sector
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities Exchange, Korea Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons. CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)
Recommendation Framework #2 **
Stock
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12 months. UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3 months.
Sector
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% (or better) or -10% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +10% to -10%; both over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over the next 3 months.
** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
216
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2011.
AAV not available, ADVANC - Excellent, AMATA - Very Good, AOT - Excellent, AP - Very Good, BANPU - Excellent , BAY - Excellent , BBL - Excellent, BCH - Good, BEC - Very Good, BECL - Very Good, BGH - not available, BH - Very Good, BIGC - Very Good, BTS - Very Good, CCET - Good, CK - Very Good, CPALL - Very Good, CPF - Very Good, CPN Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good, GLOBAL - not available, GLOW - Very Good, GRAMMY Excellent, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ - Excellent, HMPRO - Very Good, INTUCH Very Good, ITD - Good, IVL - Very Good, JAS Very Good, KAMART not available, KBANK - Excellent, KK Excellent, KTB - Excellent, LH - Very Good, LPN - Excellent, MAJOR - Very Good, MCOT - Excellent, MINT - Very Good, PS - Excellent, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTGC - not available, PTTEP - Excellent, QH - Excellent, RATCH - Excellent, ROBINS - Excellent, RS Excellent, SC Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCC - Excellent, SCCC - Very Good, SIRI - Very Good, SPALI - Very Good, STA - Very Good, STEC - Very Good, TCAP - Very Good, THAI - Very Good, THCOM Very Good, TICON Good, TISCO - Excellent, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE - Very Good, TUF - Very Good, WORK Good.
217
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Analysts Coverage
Kenneth NG, CFA (Head of Equity Research) +65 6210-8610 kenneth.ng@cimb.com Strategy Banking & Finance DBS Group Holdings Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Singapore Exchange United Overseas Bank Ltd Jonathan NG (Dy Head of Equity Research) +65 6210-8650 jonathan.ng@cimb.com Technology Amtek Engineering Ltd Armstrong Industrial Corp Broadway Industrial Group Hi-P International Venture Corporation Ltd Donald CHUA / Syn Yi LEE +65 6210-8606 donald.chua@cimb.com +65 6210-8685 synyi.lee@cimb.com Property Bukit Sembawang CapitaLand Ltd CapitaMalls Asia Ltd City Developments Ltd Fraser & Neave Ltd Global Logistic Properties Ho Bee Investment Keppel Land Overseas Union Enterprise Singapore Land Ltd UOL Group United Engineers Ltd Wheelock Properties (S) Ltd Wing Tai Holdings Ltd Property (REIT) Ascott Residence Trust Cache Logistics Trust Parkway Life REIT Perennial China Retail Trust Starhill Global REIT Siew Ling TAN +65 6210-8698 siewling.tan@cimb.com Property ARA Asset Management Property (REIT) Ascendas REIT Capitacommercial Trust CapitaMall Trust CDL Hospitality Trust Fraser Centrepoint Trust Fraser Commercial Trust Keppel Reit Mapletree Commercial Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Mapletree Logistics Trust Suntec REIT
Singapore
Gary NG +65 6210-8699 gary.ng@cimb.com Healthcare Biosensors International IHH Healthcare Raffles Medical Industrial (Water Treatment) Hyflux Ltd Industrial Tat Hong Holdings Yongnam Holdings Ltd William TNG +65 6210-8676 william.tng@cimb.com Technology Silverlake Axis Ltd Kelvin GOH, CFA +60 (3) 2084 9699 kelvin.goh@cimb.com Telecommunications M1 Ltd Singapore Telecoms Ltd Starhub Ltd Raymond YAP, CFA +60 (3) 2084-9769 raymond.yap@cimb.com Transport & Logistics (Shipping) Neptune Orient Lines STX Pan Ocean Ivy NG, CFA +60 (3) 2084-9697 ivy.ng@cimb.com Plantations Golden Agri Indofood Agri Wilmar International Lucius CHONG +60 (3) 2084-9869 lucius.chong@cimb.com Gaming Genting Singapore Genting Hong Kong Gloria TSUEN +852 2532-1129 gloria.tsuen@cimb.com Retail Parkson Retail Asia Andrew ORCHARD + 852 2593-1331 andrew.orchard@cimb.com Transport & Logistics (Airlines & Aviation) Singapore Airlines
Siew Khee LIM +65 6210-8664 siewkhee.lim@cimb.com Conglomerates Keppel Corporation SembCorp Industries ST Engineering Ltd Offshore & Marine Cosco Corporation Ezra Holdings Ltd SembCorp Marine Ltd Swiber Holdings Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Transport & Logistics (Airlines & Aviation) SIA Engineering Company Zhi Bin YEO +65 6210-8669 zhibin.yeo@cimb.com Offshore & Marine ASL Marine Holdings Ltd Ezion Holdings Ltd Mermaid Maritime PCL Otto Marine Ltd STX OSV Oil Equipment and Services CSE Global PEC Ltd Rotary Engineering Retail Dairy Farm Int'l Wen Ching LEE +65 6210-8604 wenching.lee@cimb.com Commodities Mewah International Noble Group Ltd Olam International Petra Foods Transport ComfortDelgro Corporation SMRT Corporation Ltd SATS Ltd Daniel LAU +65 6210-8614 daniel.lau@cimb.com Commodities CWT Ltd Services (Logistics) Goodpack Ltd Keppel Tel & Trans Industrial Midas Holdings Ltd Transport & Logistics (Airlines & Aviation) Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd Mou Hua LEE +65 6210 8600 mouhua.lee@cimb.com Brewers Thai Beverage Food & Beverage China Minzhong Food Corp Super Group Media Singapore Press Holdings Retail Sheng Siong Group
218
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
Asia
Malaysia 10th Floor, Bangunan CIMB Jalan Semantan Damansara Heights 50490 Kuala Lumpur T: +60 (3) 2084 8888 F: +60 (3) 2084 8899 Thailand 44 CIMB, Thai Bank Building 24-25th Floor, Soi Langsuan Lumpini, Patumwan, Bangkok 10330 T: +66 (2) 657-9000 F: +66 (2) 657-9111 Sri Lanka Level 33, West Tower World Trade Center Echelon Square Colombo 01 Singapore 50 Raffles Place #19-00 Singapore Land Tower (S048623) T: +65 6225-1228 F: +65 6224-6906 Indonesia The Indonesia Stock Exchange Building Tower II, 20th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman, Kav. 52-53 Jakarta 12190 T: +62 (21) 515-1330 F: +62 (21) 515-1335 China Unit 802 AZIA Center 1233 Lujiazui Ring Road Pudong New District Shanghai 200120 T: +86 (21) 6194-0212 / +86 (21) 6194-0218 Philippines SB Equities, Inc, a strategic partner with CIMB Securities 18F Security Bank Centre 6776 Ayala Ave. Makati 0719 T: +63 (2) 891-1243 / +63 (2) 891-1258 F: +63 (2) 813-3349 India*
Hong Kong Units 7706-08, Level 77 International Commerce Centre 1 Austin Road West Kowloon T: +852 2868-0380 F: +852 2537-1928 Sri Lanka John Keells Stock Brokers (Pvt) Ltd, a strategic partner with CIMB Securities 130 Glennie Street Colombo 00200 T: +94 (0) 11 230 6271 F: +94 (0) 11 234 2068
Taiwan* * We are currently in the process of establishing offices in India, Korea and Taiwan
Korea*
Europe
United Kingdom (2719607) 27 Knightsbridge London, SW1X 7YB T: +44 (20) 7201-2199 F: +44 (20) 7201-2191
Americas
USA (52-1971703) 540 Madison Avenue 11th Floor, New York, N.Y. 10022 T: +1 (212) 616 8600 F: +1 (212) 616 8639
Australia
Sydney Level 29, Aurora Place 88 Phillip Street Sydney, NSW 2000 +61 2 9694 5000 Melbourne Level 32, 101 Collins St Melbourne, VIC 3000 +61 3 9631 1000
219
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
November 29, 2012
220