Local Air Quality Study Etobicoke-Lakeshore Wards 5 & 6

Agenda
Welcome Mike Logan, Supervisor, Public Consultation Mark Bekkering, Manager of Implementation & Support, Environment & Energy Division Christopher Morgan, Air Quality Program Manager, Environment & Energy Division Stephanie Gower, Research Consultant, Toronto Public Health

Introduction

Air Quality Study

Health Analysis & Findings Next Steps

Christopher Morgan, Air Quality Program Manager, Environment & Energy Division

Q&A
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Introduction

Jim Baxter Director, Environment & Energy Division

Purpose of the Study

1. Identify the sources and concentrations of 30 substances that have the most impact on local air quality.

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3.

Compare concentrations of the 30 substances with air quality standards.

Assess the cumulative health impacts of all 30 substances, grouped by category:

4. 5.

carcinogens;
non-carcinogenic toxics; and criteria air contaminants. Set priorities and determine strategies to reduce exposure and improve the health of Toronto residents. Report to Parks and Environment Committee on March 3, 2014.
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Local Air Quality Study Method & Findings

Christopher Morgan, PhD Environment & Energy Division

Outline

Air Quality Modelling 30 Pollutants Examined Results & Findings Conclusions

Local Air Quality Model

AIR EMISSIONS - Data

MODELS Meteorological & Air Quality

CONCENTRATIONS of 30 Air Contaminants Mapped

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3 Nested Modelling Areas

Emissions Data Used

Areas:
NE USA Ontario Toronto

Types:
Industrial POINT Sources Mobile LINE Sources Stationary AREA Sources
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Modelling, Monitoring & Mapping

Modelling Data verified very well against Data from four MOE Monitoring Stations Model produced 1,048 equivalent data points (Virtual Monitoring Stations) - 200m apart Data of 1,048 virtual monitoring stations is the Basis of High Quality Mapping & Analysis

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MOEs 4 AQ Monitoring Stations in Toronto

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Air Quality Contaminant Concentrations Grid

Permits fine mapping resolution and detailed local neighbourhood assessment. Permits best identification of potential concerns and most likely sources.

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Emissions Concentrations: Area

Emission amounts DO NOT relate directly to resultant concentration amounts Large emission amounts from distant upwind sources are often less significant than small emission amounts from nearby smaller sources Distant sources typically contribute evenly to the background levels of downwind concentrations Nearby smaller sources typically contribute to local specific areas (on top of the background)

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Emissions Concentrations: Height

e.g. High Stacks versus Low Tailpipes

High Stack Low Car Exhaust

NB Also few high sources versus many low sources

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Sources of Torontos Pollution

Southern Ontario 25% 12% Toronto 36% 4% 16% 4%

Residential + Commercial

Mobile
Non-Road Mobile Industrial

Northeast US 39%

NB - Air pollution at ground level

Local Air Quality Model

AIR EMISSIONS - Data

MODELS Meteorological & Air Quality

CONCENTRATIONS of 30 Air Contaminants Mapped

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30 Priority Air Contaminants

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Acetaldehyde Acrolein Benzene 1,3-Butadiene Cadmium Carbon Monoxide Carbon tetrachloride Chloroform Chloromethane Chromium 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 1,2-Dichloroethane Dichloromethane Ethylene dibromide Formaldehyde 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Lead Manganese Mercury Nickel compounds Nitrogen Oxides PAHs (as B[a]Ps) PM10 PM2.5 Tetrachloroethylene Toluene Trichloroethylene Vinyl Chloride Sulfur Dioxide VOCs (Anthro. & Biogenic) Ozone
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Map Types

[ potentially 480 Maps]

COMPLIANCE ASSESSMENT MAPS show: Comparison to MOEs Desirable Ambient Air Quality Criteria (AAQC) standards of our modelled concentrations for 30 contaminants ANALYSIS MAPS show: Local emission sources effectively link Sources + Specific Areas Worst Case 24-Hour Maps 98th Percentile Maps [re Worst Case] Annual Average Maps CUMULATIVE HEALTH RISK MAPS Consider the health risks of exposure to multiple contaminants
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Ambient Air Quality Criteria (AAQC)

An AAQC is a desirable concentration of a contaminant in air, based on protection against adverse effects on health or the environment. The term ambient is used to reflect general air quality independent of location or source of a contaminant. AAQCs are most commonly used in environmental assessment of general air quality in a community and annual reporting on air quality across the Province.
(MOE Standards Branch, 2012)
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Compliance Maps as % of AAQC

For each of the 30 contaminants we set the MOEs AAQC (or equivalent) to 100% and map concentrations against that [between 0% and 150%]

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Compliance Maps: Colour Coded by Significance

Purple (2) Blue (3) No AAQC standard established Far Below 1% of AAQC (i.e. < 0.000,000,000,000,000,01)

Yellow (17) Green (3) Red (5)

Less than 10% of AAQC

Greater than 10% but Less than 100% of AAQC Greater than 100% AAQC
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30 Priority Air Contaminants

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Acetaldehyde Acrolein Benzene 1,3-Butadiene Cadmium Carbon Monoxide Carbon tetrachloride Chloroform Chloromethane Chromium 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 1,2-Dichloroethane Dichloromethane Ethylene dibromide Formaldehyde 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Lead Manganese Mercury Nickel compounds Nitrogen Oxides PAHs (as B[a]Ps) PM10 PM2.5 Tetrachloroethylene Toluene Trichloroethylene Vinyl Chloride Sulfur Dioxide VOCs (Anthro. & Biogenic) Ozone
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How we analyze the maps & data

Identify areas of high concentrations (on maps) Identify emission source areas (tier maps) Identify emission source type (on databases) Confirm currency of data type (2006 & 2012) Liaise with MOE and Stakeholders
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Emissions by Source Type

Car & truck (highway) emissions Residential & commercial emissions Airport emissions Industrial emissions

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Significant Contaminant Emissions by Source Type

Cars & Trucks Nitrogen Oxides Benzo[a]pyrene PM10 PM2.5 Benzene 1,3 Butadiene Acrolein Cadmium Carbon Monoxide Formaldehyde Mercury Chromium Acetaldehyde Manganese Sulphur Dioxide Residential Commercial Airports Industrial

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o o

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Compliance Maps

Based on emissions contributions from All Source Areas (i) NE USA (ii) Ontario (iii) Toronto

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30 Priority Air Contaminants

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Acetaldehyde Acrolein Benzene 1,3-Butadiene Cadmium Carbon Monoxide Carbon tetrachloride Chloroform Chloromethane Chromium 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 1,2-Dichloroethane Dichloromethane Ethylene dibromide Formaldehyde 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Lead Manganese Mercury Nickel compounds Nitrogen Oxides PAHs (as B[a]Ps) PM10 PM2.5 Tetrachloroethylene Toluene Trichloroethylene Vinyl Chloride Sulfur Dioxide VOCs (Anthro. & Biogenic) Ozone
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Compliance Maps as % of AAQC

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1,3 Butadiene & 1,4 Dichlorobenzene

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Manganese & Carbon Monoxide

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Acrolein & Sulphur Dioxide

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Compliance Maps as % of AAQC

RED = 150% and Greater

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Nitrogen Oxide: Compliance & Analysis

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Benzene Compliance & Analysis

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Benzo[a]pyrene Compliance & Analysis

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PM10 Compliance & Analysis

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PM2.5 Compliance & Analysis

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Air quality conclusions

The significance of larger industrial emission sources in Wards 5 & 6 (based on NPRI data) is declining due to manufacturing process improvements & company closures.

The significance of smaller industrial & commercial sources (ChemTRAC data) has still to be modelled & fully evaluated.

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Air quality conclusions

For five substances, levels are elevated and are clearly linked to vehicle traffic:
Nitrogen Oxides Benzene Benzo[a]pyrene Particulate Matter < 10 microns (PM10) Particulate Matter < 12.5 microns (PM2.5)

The geographic variation of vehicle emissions is clearly linked to traffic volumes and vehicle type (i.e. cars versus trucks).

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Assessment of Cumulative Health Impacts

Stephanie Gower Toronto Public Health

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Air Pollution and Health

Air pollution is a mixture of many different types of chemicals

Our exposure to these pollutants depends on factors such as

how much is emitted the wind and weather
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Air Pollution and Health

Different chemicals can have different kinds of health impacts, depending on how they interact with our body:
Neurological, developmental, immunological Cancer Heart disease and lung disease
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Air Pollution and Health

Different chemicals also have different levels of toxicity
Some can be harmful at low levels of exposure, while others are only a concern at higher levels of exposure

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Vulnerability
Some people are more vulnerable to the health impacts from air pollution than others
Young children The elderly (seniors) Pregnant women People with asthma People with heart and lung conditions Smokers People who work or exercise outdoors

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30 Priority Air Contaminants Studied

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Acetaldehyde Acrolein Benzene 1,3-Butadiene Cadmium Carbon tetrachloride Chloroform Chloromethane Chromium 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 1,2-Dichloroethane Dichloromethane Ethylene dibromide Formaldehyde Lead 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Manganese Mercury Nickel compounds Nitrogen Oxides PAHs (as B[a]Ps) PM2.5 Tetrachloroethylene Toluene Trichloroethylene Vinyl Chloride Carbon Monoxide PM10 Sulfur Dioxide VOC (anthropogenic/Biogenic) Ozone

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Cumulative health impacts

Estimating cumulative health impacts means considering the health risks of exposure to multiple pollutants at one time.

Toronto Public Health assessed cumulative health impacts for three types of substances:
Non-carcinogens Carcinogens Criteria air pollutants.
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Non-carcinogens
Non-carcinogens are toxic substances that may be associated with health effects such as
Developmental Neurological Reproductive.

Non-carcinogens have a threshold for effects.

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Non-carcinogens

Considered together, the 22 non-carcinogens included in the study are not expected to be present at levels that pose a health concern.

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Carcinogens
Carcinogens are toxic substances that are associated with a risk of cancer.

There is some level of risk even at low levels of exposure.

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Carcinogens
Considered together, the carcinogens included in the study may be present at levels that pose a health concern. The risk from all carcinogens together is 44 in one million
(excluding benzo[a]pyrene) Further validation is needed for benzo[a]pyrene

Main source of cancer risk is transportation

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Criteria Air Contaminants

Criteria Air Contaminants are pollutants that are associated mainly with higher risks of heart and lung diseases. These effects can occur at any level of exposure.

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Criteria Air Contaminants

Considered together, the criteria air contaminants may increase the risk of premature mortality by 7.4 per cent. Risk is consistent with Toronto Public Healths estimate that air pollution is associated with about 1,700 premature deaths a year in Toronto. Transportation and industry are main sources of risk.

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Next Steps

Christopher Morgan, PhD Environment & Energy Division

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Next Steps
Transportation Emissions
In 2007, Toronto Public Health estimated that traffic across Toronto contributes to 400 premature deaths and 1700 hospitalizations Advocate for improved transportation emissions standards Work with various ministries (Environment, Health, Transportation) and within the City of Toronto (Toronto Public Health, City Planning, TTC and Transportation) regarding vehicle emissions, especially trucks. Connect with other major Canadian cities, all experience similar issues. Collectively advocate for improved emissions standards across Canada & North America.
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NOx Annual & PM2.5 Annual

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Studies to be completed across Toronto

Sth Riverdale - Beaches

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Next Steps
Urban Planning & Urban Design
Input was provided to Provincial Policy Statement and the Citys Official Plan to support:
active transportation and an efficient transit system mixed-use planning and safety for all road users urban and street design to encourage mode shift climate adaptation

Improve building design to encourage better ventilation of vehicle pollution in urban canyons as well as adjacent to highways. Toolkit for urban planners. (in progress) Test & develop concepts. standards
Develop appropriate designs & configurations from 3-dimensional AQ modelling & technical analysis of downtown tall buildings & streets. 57

Next Steps
Improve air modelling:
Re-run ozone model (observation based model) to better address smog issues Model ChemTRAC data Emissions from small/medium sized businesses Add as another single layer and sum together Mobile neighbourhood AQ monitor Integrate within 18 neighbourhoods approach Community update

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Next Steps
Community Facilitator:
Connect community organizations, residents, businesses, industries, associations and City divisions. Assist the community with identifying projects and building capacity to take action. Provide information and resources on sustainable transportation, energy conservation, pollution prevention (ChemTRAC) etc.
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Next Steps
Tell us how the Community Facilitator can help you improve local air quality. Information Support Examples of projects: Community and food gardens Tree planting and park naturalization Renewable energy Waste and water reduction Eco events Cycling

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Actions to improve air quality

Reduce natural gas consumption Clean furnace filters, lower thermostat settings. Upgrade insulation in your home. Use less hot water. Drive less Leave the car at home bike, walk or take transit Smart Commute Green your homes, schools and neighbourhood. Visit the Live Green Toronto display or livegreentoronto.ca for more information.

Questions & Answers

www.toronto.ca/localairquality

Mike Logan Public Consultation

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