Giovanni Botero on the Forces Governing Population Growth Author(s): Giovanni Botero Reviewed work(s): Source: Population and

Development Review, Vol. 11, No. 2 (Jun., 1985), pp. 335-340 Published by: Population Council Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1973491 . Accessed: 23/10/2012 11:30
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Giovanni Botero on the Forces Governing Population Growth

Giovanni Botero(1544-1617) is a majorfigure in theearlyhistory ofmodern political science.His principal work, Della ragion di stato (The Reason of State,1589), is in manywaysof comparable interest to Machiavelli'smuchmore famousThe Prince (1513). It is a slightly earlierand shorter work ofBotero's,Delle causedellagrandezza dellecitta (The Cause oftheGreatness ofCities,1588),however, that shouldearnhimrecognition as theoriginator ofmodern population theory. The section(Book III) of thattreatise concluding introduces a scheme for analyzing the forcesgoverning population growth that, morethantwohundred yearslater,became known and enormously influential as thecenterpiece ofMalthus'sEssay. As Schumpetercomments in his History of Economic Analysis: "Divested ofnon-essentials, the 'Malthusian' Principle ofPopulation thebrainofBotero sprang fully developed from in 158[81:populations tend to increase, beyond anyassignablelimit, to the fullextent madepossiblebyhuman fecundity (thevirtus generativa oftheLatintranslation); the meansof subsistence, on thecontrary, and thepossibilities of increasing them (the virtus nutritiva) are definitely limited and therefore impose a limit on thatincrease." Andfurther: "[Botero's] path-breaking onlyperformance in the performance-the whole history ofthetheory ofpopulation todeserve atall-came much anycredit before thetime in which itsmessagecouldhavespread;itwaspractically lostin thepopulationist wave of theseventeenth But about twohundred century. yearsafter Botero, Malthus reallydid no morethanrepeatit, exceptthathe adoptedparticular mathematicallawsfor theoperation of thevirtus and thevirtus generativa nutritiva" (pp. 254-255). Despitethedistance in time and in somerespects inphilosophy, thesimibetween thethinking larity Malthus and hisItalianpredecesoftheEnglish clergyman sor(whowas a Catholic trained as a Jesuit) priest thebasicframework goes beyond of their Botero'sviews analytic approach.For example, on thetypes and modus operandi cametobe known as "positive ofwhat checks"and ''preventive checks"topopulation are a remarkable growth LikeMalthus anticipation ofMalthus'streatment. (whodid notknow thework to ground Boterosought his reasoning ofhisItalianpredecessor), in observable that was largely demographic facts,eventhough frustrated effort byhis lackofaccess to reliablestatistics and byhismisconceptions aboutthedemography of theancient both and thecontemporary world. belowis the of Reproduced full text ofBook III ofThe Cause of theGreatness Citiesas translated intoEnglish bySir T. Hawkins.The text ofthistranslation (publishedin Londonin 1635) was obtained theNew York PublicLibrary. It is renfrom deredhereinmodern and with modern spelling punctuation.

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thatlaws and of cities,considering founders The ancient of numbers there are infinite where be observed can difficultly civildiscipline beyond of citizens thenumber limited confusion, breeding people,multitude a could not be maintained, they judged, orderand form whichproportion, Solon, Aristotle. city.Such wereLycurgus, matter so muchdesiredin their whicha citycannotlong thatpower(without But the Romans,imagining of people,assayedby all forthemostpart,in themultitude consists, persist) demonstrated as we have before and peopletheir country, meansto increase in ourBooks on State-Affairs. morefully in thistreatise and will explicate manwillingly rest andevery byreason, wouldbe governed If theworld the withthatwhichjustlybelongsto him,thenwould, assuredly, content Butexperience, tobe embraced. law-makers be worthy oftheancient judgment above of human nature force prevails whichshowsus thatby thecorruption the judgment us also that inall points laws,teaches yieldunto andarms reason, so of theGrecians; before theopinion to be preferred of theRomansdeserves and Lacedemonians (to forthatwe beholdthe Athenians muchthe rather, discomof Greece)fellintoruin commonwealths by a little speakof no other and or thereabout; and sevenhundred citizens, and loss of a thousand fiture of part lostthegreatest they though on theother side,theRomansconquered, more Romans most evident that For it is a matter armies andenterprises. their the Numantines, Viriatus, the Carthaginians, died in the wars of Pyrrhus, comthanwereslain(without and in other services, and Sertorius, Spartacus, withall this,theyremained parison)of the enemies.Yet, notwithstanding addedto their withwhich, multitudes, unexhausted victors by reasonof their and mostfierce although adversaries, theyexcelledtheir soldiers, surviving thanvalor. no less in number courageous, a city which themeanswith In thepreceding Books we havediscovered so that of greatness maybe desired, height maybe raisedto themosteminent of the notfornecessity moreto be said. Nevertheless, remains that nothing of thiswork,we will consider. butforornament argument,

From whence it proceeds that cities increase not by proportion out, which maybe found Let no manbelievetheforesaid means,or anyother a matter consideration Itis assuredly worthy increase canmakea city infinitely. and of magnitude height to a certain citiesarrived from whenceit comesthat or else fallback abide therein, buteither firmly powercan pass no further, was founded again.Let us takeRomeforan example.This,in thebeginning, thousand it three contained Halicarnassus writes) by Romulus;(as Dionysius sevenand thirty to beararms.Romulus menfit years, hundred reigned three men. untoforty seventhousand fighting in whichspace the citymultiplied and thedeathof Romulusaboutsome hundred UnderServiusTullius,after fitforwarlike thousand up in Rome fourscore years,were reckoned fifty

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and little, to thesumof employment. Finally thenumber, amounted by little four hundred and fifty thousand men. Then do I demand,whenceis it thatthepeople of Rome from three thousand three hundred menofwararrived to four hundred andfifty thousand, and from fourhundred and fifty thousand passed no further? Likewise,for four hundred yearsago Milan and Veniceafforded as many menas nowthey do, whereby appearstheincrease goes no further. Some answer, theplague,war,dearth, and other likeoccasionsare the cause. But thatsatisfies not. For plagues and infections have alwaysbeen; warsweremuchmorefrequent and bloodyin former ages thanin ourdays. For thentheycame in an instant to handy-strokes and to give battle, where wereslaina greater multitude in three or four hours thannow in many years; theservice from beingreduced thefield to thewalls,where morethemattock than theswordis employed. Besides,theworldhas never beenwithout interof plenty alteration and dearth, constitution changeable and infectious healthy plague.Neither is itpertinent to mypurpose to produce examples thereof, for histories are fullof it. Now, if withall theseaccidents citiesbegunwithfewpeoplearrive to a vastmultitude of inhabitants, from whenceis it that they proceednotby a increase? proportionable Some affirm itis becauseGod, theModerator ofall things, so disposes. No mandoubtsthereof: wisdomof God, in theadyet,because theinfinite ministration and government of nature, uses secondcauses, I ask, withwhat meansthatEternal Providence makesthe smallnumber and gives multiply, limits and boundsto thegreater? For answerof whichquestionpropounded, I may say thatthe same demandmay be made of all humankind,because it being(threethousand from one manandwomanso much all theprovinces years ago) multiplied that ofthefirm landand islandsof thesea werefilled. How is itcometo pass that from thosethree thousand thisaugmentation has takenno yearshitherward further progression? But letus resolvethisdoubtin cities,forthereby it will be resolved in theworld.We say, then, that of citiesproceeds, theincrease from the partly, virtuegenerativeof men,partly, from thenutritive force of thosecities.The generative,without three thousand doubt,alwaysis thesame, at least,from foras aptare menin thesedaysforgeneration as they were yearshitherward, inthetimes ofDavid orMoses. Whereupon, ifthere wereno other impediment, thepropagation wouldmultiply, andtheincrease ofcitiesbe without endlessly limit. But if it proceed no further, it behoovesus to say, it is wrought by the of nutriment defect and sustentation. Now foodis imported either from theterritory of our cityor from other ifa city so that wouldincrease, itbehooves, victual be thither countries, brought from far.To cause that victual be thither from the brought far,it is necessary virtue attractive be so great that itsurmount andovercome ofplaces, roughness of hills,depth of valleys,swiftness of rivers, height perilsof sea, treacheries

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of pirates, of winds,greatness instability of expense,badnessof ways and passages,envyof neighbors, hatred of enemies,emulation of competitors, length oftime which is required for conduct, thedearth andscantiness inplaces from whence merchandise is tobe conveyed, natural ofnations, hate contrariety of sectsand such like, whichtakeincrease according as thepeople and the of the cities multiply, affairs become finally such, and so great,thatthey exceedall diligence and human industry. For how shallit everbe brought to pass formerchants to transport corn(forexample)from India or Cathayto Rome,orfrom theRomans thither? Andwhen theone andtheother mayeffect it, who will assurethemtheyearly voyagesshall be alwayshappy,thatthe people shall stillabide in peace, thatthepassages shall be perpetually open and thewayssecure?Or that fortransportation of victuals anyform to Rome can be found out by suchspace and distance of land,so that who bring they it mayendure thetoil and master theexpensethereof? Now, one of thesaid ifnotmany which difficulties, together, to drive maybe opposed,is sufficient thepeoplefrom a city,needful of assistance and subject to so manychances andaccidents. A dearth, a famine, a war,an interruption ofaffairs andtraffic, a deceitof merchants and othersuch like, will enforce them(as thewinter does swallows)to seek another country. The greatness of cities,ordinarily, in this,how they is fixed maycombe but on modiously preserved; greatness which depends causes remote, or ill disposedmeans,little lasts.For every one seeksforconvenience and facility. Theremaybe addedalso to theformer that citiesare muchmoresubject great to dearth thanlittle, becausethey needa greater ofvictuals. quantity Theyare also subject to theplague,for theinfection more easilyfastens andwith there, greater mortality. Finally,theyare subjectto all thedifficulties repeated by us becausetheystandin needof more. menwere as apt forgeneration in theheight So, although of Rome's greatness as in thebeginning of peopleaugmented thereof, yetthemultitudes notby proportion. For thevirtuenutritive of thecityhad no force to pass any in processof time,nothaving becausetheinhabitants, comfurther, greater of victuals, either nevermarried their modity or, if theymarried, children, or necessity, came to nothing; but forsaking their through misery country, of place. Whichmischief endeavored to better their fortune by transmutation theRomansdesirous to prevent madechoiceof manypoorcitizens and sent into liketrees better their them colonies where, transplanted, they might estates, live morecommodiously, and so might multiply. For thesamereasonmankind to a certain beingincreased multitude has notproceeded Andforthree anyfurther. thousand yearssince,and more,the worldwas as fully withmenas now at thispresent, forthefruits of replete theearth andabundance ofvictual notwith number ofpeople. comports greater in Mesopotamia, Men beganto be propagated and augmenting and by little little hereandthere; andhaving they expatiated thecontinent, replenished they ourparts and little passedto theislandsof thesea, and from arrived by little

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at thosecountries whichwe entitle theNew World.Besides,there is notany thing forwhichmen fight morefuriously thanforterritory, food,and convenience of habitation. their The Swethians reputed it a greatgloryforthemto depopulate confines formany hundred miles.In theNew World,thepeopleof theIsland of Dominicoand thebordering parts go to thehunting and chase of men,as we of harts,or hares,feeding themselves with their flesh. The likedo many whoarecalled Aymurs; and peopleof Brazil,especially they they dismember andliving with devour children infants, they ripup thebelliesof women great thelittle oftheir gourchild,pulling thence creatures, and in presence parents a matter mandize roasted toimagine, much them, upongridirons, truly horrible moreto behold.The peopleof Ghinea,enforced do at a base low by poverty, to theMoors,whotransfer pricedailysell their children them overto Barbary and to the Portugals who lead themintotheirislandsor sell themto the in theNew World.The like also do thepeople of Peru,who for Castillians little or nothing give their children to any will have them, which,certainly, proceeds from their misery andinability tofeedandmaintain them. TheTartars and theArabians theNasamonians, and Cafres,a mostbarlive by robbery; liveuponthespoilsof shipwrecks, as thePortugals barous peopleofEthiopia, how many times well known havefound by experience. Besides,it is a thing and the the the the the Gauls, the Germans, Goths, Tartars, Huns, Avari, of theinfinite multitude people, notbeingable, through other nations diverse confines and possessed have gone out of their own country to live in their is of the inhabitants. withthe utter Whereby others'provinces, extirpation of Europeand Asia have thatin fewages almostall theterritories happened and foreign nations habitations, been possessedby strange issuedfrom their forthesuperfluous either and super-abundant of their multitude people,or out of a desireto lead a lifemorecommodious and plentiful. The infinite number ofthieves androbbers, from for itbutfrom whence themost penury? part grows Differences and suits,from whenceproceedtheyif notfrom narthe strict of rowness confines? made and Limits,ditches, hedges,and other defences, andlivings; ofvinesandripefruits; usedaboutmen'spossessions theguarding and bandogstiedthere; whatmayall thisinfer but gatesto houses,mastiffs Whatshallwe say to ourdesiresand necessities? that theworldis straitened Whatshallwe say of wars,bothby sea and land? of armsof so manysorts? on bridges built andpassages?What,ofwalls?Severus, theEmperor, Of forts the Roman witha wall morethaneighty miles long, in Britainseparated ofChina,with a wall above from theunconquered province people.The kings from theTartars. six hundred mileslong,freed their dominion Theremayalso conbe addedto theformer causes sterility, influences, dearth, unauspicious of inundations the of tagiousdiseases,pestilences, earthquakes, sea, rivers, whichdepopulating now a city,now a kingdom, and othersuch accidents, of menimmoderately to one nation, hinder thenumbers then straight another,
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The causes of a city

that preserve the greatness

Itremains only, that having brought ourcity tothegreatness which thecondition andother circumstances of situation, remembered inourdiscourse, before can afford, diligencemaybe used in theconservation and maintenance thereof. To whichpeace,justice,and plenty are helpful; for justicesecures every one in hisown;by peace, tillage, trade, and artsflourish; of victuals byplenty the sustentation of lifeis madeeasy; and nothing retains thepeople moremerry andcheerful than thecheapness ofbread.Finally, all thosethings which cause greatness are likewisetheaptestmeansto preserve it. For thecauses of the production of things,and conservation of them,are assuredly the same.