wfYdal wNh.

=KjOk
Asoka Abeygunawardana
;sridr n,Yla;s wkd.;hla Wfoid '''
Towards sustainable energy in the
power sector ..
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Demand GWh
Electricity Demand Forecast
D__ __o8 qoccec Ooac
100% D__c
7% O:oec Ooac
cO:oa coecc D__ coc
Transport sector electrification
(
G
W
h
/
y
)

0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
8
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
0
2
0
3
1
2
0
3
2
E
n
e
r
g
y

(
G
W
h
)

CEB Genartion Plan -Base Case - 2013-2032
Oil
Coal
NCRE
New Major Hydro
Existing Major Hydro
_eDe caa :_:e O:oec 20!8-82) O:oec D__ caac
Existing
Major
Hydro
28%
New
Major
Hydro
0%
NCRE
6%
Coal
34%
Oil
32%
Energy Mix - 2015
Existing
Major
Hydro
22%
New
Major
Hydro
2%
NCRE
8%
Coal
62%
Oil
6%
Energy Mix - 2020
Existing
Major
Hydro
12%
New Major
Hydro
2%
NCRE
6%
Coal
79%
Oil
1%
Energy Mix - 2032
D__ caaoc
ccO eccc
2 Issuses

* Oil - Includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and NGLs
(Assuming no reserves increase) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009
Oil*
(billion
barrels)
Gas
(trillion
cubic m)
Coal
(billion T)
Total Reserves in 2008 1260 185 826
Consumption in 2008 30 3.96 6.78
Reserves availability at 2008 rate
(years)
42

60 122

Production growth rate during
1990-2008 period
1.4% 3.1% 2.4%

Reserves availability at the
increasing rate (years)
30 years 2042
30 years
55 years
47 years
Future of Fossil fuels - oc:_ aa O_ qa:ecc
Issue 1- Scarcity of resources
caac ! - 8cc occ
CO
2
concentration In creased by 44%
Global average temperature 0.85
0
C
Sea level rise 10 cm
Issue 2- Global Warming
caac 2- oc_c _8 D q:c
qco:
c:a cccoe c_ o_ Occ
50% chance
peaking 500 ppm stabilize 450 ppm

Understanding the
bell curve
Right to pollute ?
Compensation ?
BAU
Agenda for
Developing World
caOa o_:ccc
ao:c cccc

2015 2020
Carbon Emissions - Trend in Sri Lanka
a _ec:oD c:a Doe:Oac
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500 BAU - CO2 % Increase
BAU - CO2 % Increase
250%
O:DDec
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
o
:

_
c
a


Oo
aa q:aca o: :8c:cc qcaca
oc, oo, oc:_ qcaca
aa q:aca
Fossil Fuel Imports Vs Earnings from traditional Tea, Rubber
and Coconut exports
Solutions
3
Think Globally and Act Locally
oe:_cO caa - oacO cccc coaa
1. Renewable Energy
caocaac _accc
2. Energy Efficiency & Conservation
_acc c:occeec:O o: qocoe:e
3. Sustainable Life Styles
co:O8 COa oc:O
Solutions D_8
14
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Annual energy generation from FiT Projects (GWh)
2020 qcoc:ec - Challenge !
?
3 Issuses

Issue 1 - RE Potential
caac ! - cao caac _acc DcOc
Technology Current
(MW)
Conservative
Potential (MW)
Theoretical Potential
(MW)
Hydro Power (@ 40% pf) 1400 1960
Dendro Power (@ 70% pf) 11 900 3,000 (BEASL estimate)
Wind Power (@ 30% pf) 90 3000 20,000+24,000 (NREL
estimate)
Solar Power (@ 16% pf ) 1 (10,000 ha)
Out of 6.5 mil
4.5 to 6.0 kWh/m2/day

Wave Power (@ 65% pf) 0 200 2000 (NARA estimate)
OTEC (80%) 0 200 Trincomalee Canyon: one
of the worlds best places
Geothermal 0 30 (GSMB estimate)
Total 1502 6290
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Mini hydro
Wind
Biomass dendro
Coal
Scacity
Coal with tax
Coal with loss
Biomass dendro
with CERs
Escalation due to inflation : fuel - 5.09%; O&M -7.64%
Escalation due to scarcity of coal resources: 3%
R
s
/
k
W
h

Year
Issue 2- True cost of Energy
caac 2 - caocaac _accoc :: Dce
Issue 3- Storage ec: coe
Pumping from Lower Reservoir with renewables, and save at
Upper Reservoir.
Upper Reservoir
Penstock
Power Plant
Switch Yard
Tunnel
Surge Tank
Intake
Generator
Lower Reservoir
Pumping
Pumped Water Storage Power Plant
Pumping
Myth 3- Storage ec: coe
Upper Reservoir
Penstock
Power Plant
Switch Yard
Tunnel
Surge Tank
Intake
Generator
Generation
Lower Reservoir
Generation
Energy Efficiency : 84.23%
Pumped Water Storage Power Plant
Samanalawewa (Keriketi Oya) 1000 MW
Maussakele (Adam's Peak Falls) 500 MW
Randenigala (Halgran Oya) 500 MW
Kotmale (Maha Oya, Gurugal Oya, Kuda Oya) 900 MW
Upper Kotmale (Dambagastalawa, Agra Oya) 600 MW

Total 3500 MW
500 MW plant: capital - 360 to 500 million USD
- 730 1000 USD/kW
studies are currently under way.
Potential sites
Recommendations aooa
a _ec:Oc coo _acc _cc
Sustainable Energy Development Goals
ococ _cc - Government Targets
1995 98% caocaac _acc c_ D__c) (RE)
2010 - 40% caocaac _acc c_ D__c) (RE)

2016 - 60% demand increase
2016 - 38% caocaac _acc c_ D__c + o - 10%) (RE)

2020 100% demand increase
__e c_ea:coc 10% (Demand side Management)
2020 - 43% caocaac _acc c_ D__c + o - 20%) (RE)
Statements of intend
c:a Dooc Ooac - 2020 (Carbon Neutral Growth)
c:a Doe:Oac qc coe q:oe - 2030 (Start reducing
emissions reduction)
Zero carbon economy by 2050 - c:a Dooc q:occ
a _ec:oD c:a Doe:Oac
Targeted Emissions Reduction Sri Lanka
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
8
2
0
3
0
2
0
3
2
2
0
3
4
2
0
3
6
2
0
3
8
2
0
4
0
BAU - CO2 % Increase
Intended Plan
250%
O:DDec
800%
O:DDec
500%
O:DDec
Set the policy guidelines for financial
sustainability of the CEB
MOPE
Set the policy framework for NCRE tariff MERE
Submit tariff proposal for the NCRE
avoided cost
CEB
Submit the NCRE cost based tariff
proposal to PUCSL for achieving the
government announced NCRE target of
20% by 2020
SLSEA
Review the proposals and declare the
NCRE avoided cost tariff to be paid by
the CEB and NCRE cost based tariff that
will be offered to the NERE developers
PUCSL
FIT Solution
qOao Oa ccccc o:eO
Policy Framework

oc:_ aa oa::o Oc coe
Remove Fossil Fuel Subsidies
caocaac _accc o:
ec:_a oa c
Long term lending scheme for RE
c:a q::c8 _:e:ae
Access Carbon credits
qOao Oa ccccc o:eO
Policy Framework

oOac coecO_ cc_:cca _acc
coeccc _:7e
Assist power sector to get indirect economic
benefits from other sectors
caocaac _accc c_ cooce
R&D on RE and EE
e_c _acc qOaoc:Ocac cecc:O e
Prioritize Basic Needs
c:oc ocO_ _c_ _ecc Oa _:e:ae
Compansation