Human Population This exercise uses a simulation on Human Demographics to explore how human populations in different countries will

change over time, and how different factors may influence these changes. 1. Please fill in the following table by reading the bases of the pyramids after running each Scenario. The "original" pyramid is the one at the bottom. The top pyramid has the same fertility rates, ust shifted ! years later in life. "ountry '() "hina *gypt #ermany +ndia +taly ,exico -. .ased on your table above, for which countries does shifting reproduction five years decrease the population growth rate r/ +ncrease/ *xplain. Does shifting reproduction have any effect on the number of children per woman/ 0. 1hat is the shape of a growing population pyramid/ ) declining one/ ) stable one/ #rowth rate $%& original "hildren per woman original #rowth rate $%& new $shifted& "hildren per woman new $shifted&

2. (elect Scenario | USA and use the change rates menu to decrease mortality by 3144%. That means, nobody dies until age 5!, then they all die. 6ooming in on the plot $see above&, how much difference does this change ma7e in the population by -454/ !. 8epeat the previous 9uestion, except increase mortality by 144%. This doubles the death rate per cohort. How much difference does this change ma7e in the population by -454/ :. (elect Scenario | USA. ;otice that the blue line, the official '( "ensus pro ection to year -4!4, goes up in a straight line. <et the purple line, our simulation with current rates, ta7es a sharp bend and goes flat. 'se the change rates menu to get the purple line closer to the blue line $see an example in figure 1&. Hint= (et "shift fertility age" and "mortality" changes to >ero and instead ad ust the fertility rate.

?igure 1. (ample answer for 9uestion : @. .ased on the previous 9uestion, what do the demographers at the '( "ensus .ureau expect to happen in the '(, if they base their pro ection on only the current population/ 1hat do they expect if they are basing their pro ection on immigration/

A. BetCs loo7 at time delays. (elect Scenarios | Egypt. Dn the change rates menu, set shift fertility years to 4, and fertility rate to 3-A $decrease fertility -A%&. 1hat is the time delay before *gyptCs population stops growing/ <ou may want to restart and step through this to see how the rate r changes while the avg children per woman is at replacement level reproduction. 5. How many people are added between -44! and when the population crests/ *xplain in your own words why the population 7eeps growing after it reaches replacement level reproduction, and how long it ta7es for that change to bring growth to >ero. 14. (elect ,exico. ?ind rate changes that mimic the blue "ensus .ureau pro ection. 11. (elect #ermany. ?ind rate changes that mimic the blue "ensus .ureau pro ection. 1-. "hina is the most populous country in the world. 1hen will +ndiaCs population outstrip "hinaCs/ 10. .etween now and -4!4, +ndiaCs population is pro ected to grow by !-4 million people. ThatCs nearly twice the population of the '(. The total will be about three and a half times the current si>e of the '(. They would probably li7e to live as well as we do. 1hat happens if they get their wish/ 12. +f you were the minister of health for +ndia, and you wanted to control population growth, which variable$s& would you prefer to change/ 1hich would you prefer not to change/