Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DOCENTE
INTEGRANTES :
ALVAREZ ENRIQUEZ, Luis Glicerio
ARGAMONTE VILCHEZ, Glodomier
ENCISO GARCIA, Percy
GUERRA MOLINA, Salom
HURTADO GARCA, Csar
Ayacucho - Per
2014
Alternativa 2:
Construccin de un sistema de captacin y distribucin de aguas, el cual incluye
bocatomas, un canal principal de 17.5 Km., canales secundarios con una
extensin total de 25Km., y diversas obras hidrulicas de control y distribucin.
Capacitacin a los miembros de la junta de usuarios en organizacin y
administracin de infraestructura de riego, y a la junta de usuarios en manejo de
riego y agrcola.
Costos
Valor S/.
Operacin
Mantenimiento
Total
28,580.20
1,875.45
30,455.65
Alternativa 2
Factores de correccin
Premisa:
Los ingresos del proyecto tienen un incremento anual de 1.5%. Los costos de
operacin y mantenimiento con proyecto son constantes. Utilice una tasa social de
descuento de 9%.
Gastos generales y utilidad se deducen de los costos directos del proyecto.
El horizonte de evaluacin es de 10 aos.
Ejercicio:
a) Determine el costo de la inversin a precios de mercado y precios sociales de la
alternativa 1 y 2.
b) Elabore el flujo de caja econmico y social de la alternativa 1 y 2.
c) Determine los indicadores de rentabilidad del proyecto: VANE, VANS, TIRE y
TIRS.
d) Determine los beneficios y costos incrementales de las alternativas 1 y 2.
e) Elabore el anlisis de sensibilidad en tomando como variables sensibles:
variaciones en el ingreso e inversin para la alternativa seleccionada en un
intervalo de [ - 30%, -20%, -10%, -5%, 0, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%]
f)
Alternativa 1
Estudio (E)
70,000.00
Infraestructura (In)
5,350,083.90
Capacitacin (Cp)
217,479.00
30,000.00
5,597,562.90
447,805.03
559,756.29
6,675,124.22
Alternativa 2
Estudio (E)
70,000.00
Infraestructura (In)
5,317,075.00
Equipamiento (Eq)
85,420.00
Capacitacin (Cp)
187,401.00
32,000.00
5,621,896.00
449,751.68
562,189.60
6,703,837.28
Ao
Rubro
10
Ingresos
Con proyecto
1,030,494.00 1,045,951.41 1,061,640.68 1,077,565.29 1,093,728.77 1,110,134.70 1,126,786.72 1,143,688.52 1,160,843.85 1,178,256.51
Inversion
Con Proyecto
Inversin
Estudio
Infraestructura
6,675,124.22
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
6,675,124.22
70,000.00
5,350,083.90
Equipamiento
Capacitacion
Gastos de mitigacion
Costo directo
217,479.00
30,000.00
5,597,562.90
Gastos generales
447,805.03
Utilidad
559,756.29
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Flujo Neto
-6,675,124.22
997,850.00 1,013,307.41 1,028,996.68 1,044,921.29 1,061,084.77 1,077,490.70 1,094,142.72 1,111,044.52 1,128,199.85 1,145,612.51
Ao
Rubro
10
Ingresos
Con proyecto
1,030,494.00 1,045,951.41 1,061,640.68 1,077,565.29 1,093,728.77 1,110,134.70 1,126,786.72 1,143,688.52 1,160,843.85 1,178,256.51
Inversion
Con Proyecto
Inversin
Estudio
6,703,837.28
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
70,000.00
5,317,075.00
Equipamiento
85,420.00
Capacitacion
187,401.00
Costo directo
32,644.00
6,703,837.28
Infraestructura
Gastos de mitigacion
32,644.00
32,000.00
5,621,896.00
Gastos generales
449,751.68
Utilidad
562,189.60
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Flujo Neto
-6,703,837.28
997,850.00 1,013,307.41 1,028,996.68 1,044,921.29 1,061,084.77 1,077,490.70 1,094,142.72 1,111,044.52 1,128,199.85 1,145,612.51
Ao
Rubro
10
Ingresos
Con proyecto
1,030,494.00 1,045,951.41 1,061,640.68 1,077,565.29 1,093,728.77 1,110,134.70 1,126,786.72 1,143,688.52 1,160,843.85 1,178,256.51
Inversion
Con Proyecto
Inversin
Estudio
5,626,701.86
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
63,000.00
4,494,070.48
Equipamiento
0.00
Capacitacion
195,731.10
Costo directo
29,254.15
5,626,701.86
Infraestructura
Gastos de mitigacion
29,254.15
25,200.00
4,715,001.58
Gastos generales
377,200.13
Utilidad
471,500.16
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Flujo Neto
-5,626,701.86 1,001,239.85 1,016,697.26 1,032,386.54 1,048,311.15 1,064,474.62 1,080,880.56 1,097,532.58 1,114,434.38 1,131,589.71 1,149,002.36
Ao
Rubro
10
Ingresos
Con proyecto
1,030,494.00 1,045,951.41 1,061,640.68 1,077,565.29 1,093,728.77 1,110,134.70 1,126,786.72 1,143,688.52 1,160,843.85 1,178,256.51
Inversion
Con Proyecto
Inversin
Estudio
5,650,707.22
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
63,000.00
4,466,343.00
Equipamiento
73,461.20
Capacitacion
168,660.90
Costo directo
29,254.15
5,650,707.22
Infraestructura
Gastos de mitigacion
29,254.15
26,880.00
4,735,345.10
Gastos generales
378,827.61
Utilidad
473,534.51
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Flujo Neto
-5,650,707.22 1,001,239.85 1,016,697.26 1,032,386.54 1,048,311.15 1,064,474.62 1,080,880.56 1,097,532.58 1,114,434.38 1,131,589.71 1,149,002.36
(
(
Alternativa 1
VANE
119,645.67
9.40%
Tasa de Descuento
9.00%
TIRS
Tasa de Descuento
Alternativa 2
TIRE
VANS
1,189,822.95
13.48%
9.00%
VANE
90,932.61
TIRE
9.30%
Tasa de Descuento
9.00%
VANS
TIRS
Tasa de Descuento
1,165,817.59
13.38%
9.00%
Ao
Rubro
10
Ingresos
Con proyecto
1,030,494.00 1,045,951.41 1,061,640.68 1,077,565.29 1,093,728.77 1,110,134.70 1,126,786.72 1,143,688.52 1,160,843.85 1,178,256.51
Sin Proyecto
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
239,603.70
255,061.11
270,750.38
286,674.99
302,838.47
319,244.40
335,896.42
352,798.22
369,953.55
387,366.21
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
28,580.20
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
1,875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
6,675,124.22
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
-6,675,124.22
237,415.35
252,872.76
268,562.03
284,486.64
300,650.12
317,056.05
333,708.07
350,609.87
367,765.20
385,177.86
Beneficios Incrementales
Inversion
Con Proyecto
Inversin
Estudio
Infraestructura
6,675,124.22
6,675,124.22
70,000.00
5,350,083.90
Equipamiento
Capacitacion
Gastos de mitigacion
Costo directo
217,479.00
30,000.00
5,597,562.90
Gastos generales
447,805.03
Utilidad
559,756.29
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Sin Proyecto
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Costos Incrementales
Flujo Incremental
Ao
Rubro
10
Ingresos
Con proyecto
1,030,494.00 1,045,951.41 1,061,640.68 1,077,565.29 1,093,728.77 1,110,134.70 1,126,786.72 1,143,688.52 1,160,843.85 1,178,256.51
Sin Proyecto
Beneficios Incrementales
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
239,603.70
255,061.11
270,750.38
286,674.99
302,838.47
319,244.40
335,896.42
352,798.22
369,953.55
387,366.21
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
32,644.00
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
30,553.10
Inversion
Con Proyecto
Inversin
Estudio
6,703,837.28
6,703,837.28
70,000.00
Infraestructura
5,317,075.00
Equipamiento
85,420.00
Capacitacion
187,401.00
Gastos de mitigacion
Costo directo
32,000.00
5,621,896.00
Gastos generales
449,751.68
Utilidad
562,189.60
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
2,090.90
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
30,455.65
28,580.20
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
28580.2
1,875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
1875.45
6,703,837.28
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
2,188.35
-6,703,837.28
237,415.35
252,872.76
268,562.03
284,486.64
300,650.12
317,056.05
333,708.07
350,609.87
367,765.20
385,177.86
Sin Proyecto
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Costos Incrementales
Flujo Incremental
Ao
Rubro
10
Ingresos
Con proyecto
1,030,494.00 1,045,951.41 1,061,640.68 1,077,565.29 1,093,728.77 1,110,134.70 1,126,786.72 1,143,688.52 1,160,843.85 1,178,256.51
Sin Proyecto
Beneficios Incrementales
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
239,603.70
255,061.11
270,750.38
286,674.99
302,838.47
319,244.40
335,896.42
352,798.22
369,953.55
387,366.21
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
Inversion
Con Proyecto
Inversin
Estudio
Infraestructura
Equipamiento
Capacitacion
Gastos de mitigacion
Costo directo
5,626,701.86
5,626,701.86
63,000.00
4,494,070.48
0.00
195,731.10
25,200.00
4,715,001.58
Gastos generales
377,200.13
Utilidad
471,500.16
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
25,722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
1,575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
5,626,701.86
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
-5,626,701.86
237,647.11
253,104.52
268,793.79
284,718.40
300,881.88
317,287.81
333,939.83
350,841.64
367,996.96
385,409.62
Sin Proyecto
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Costos Incrementales
Flujo Incremental
Ao
Rubro
10
Ingresos
Con proyecto
1,030,494.00 1,045,951.41 1,061,640.68 1,077,565.29 1,093,728.77 1,110,134.70 1,126,786.72 1,143,688.52 1,160,843.85 1,178,256.51
Sin Proyecto
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
790,890.30
239,603.70
255,061.11
270,750.38
286,674.99
302,838.47
319,244.40
335,896.42
352,798.22
369,953.55
387,366.21
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
29,254.15
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
27,497.79
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
1,756.36
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
27,297.56
25,722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
25722.18
1,575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
1575.38
5,650,707.22
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
1,956.59
-5,650,707.22
237,647.11
253,104.52
268,793.79
284,718.40
300,881.88
317,287.81
333,939.83
350,841.64
367,996.96
385,409.62
Beneficios Incrementales
Inversion
Con Proyecto
Inversin
Estudio
Infraestructura
5,650,707.22
5,650,707.22
63,000.00
4,466,343.00
Equipamiento
73,461.20
Capacitacion
168,660.90
Gastos de mitigacion
Costo directo
26,880.00
4,735,345.10
Gastos generales
378,827.61
Utilidad
473,534.51
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Sin Proyecto
Operacin y mantenimiento
Costo de Operacin
Costo de Mantenimiento
Costos Incrementales
Flujo Incremental
ALTERNATIVA I
VAN
TIR
2,877,834
23.32%
2,315,163
19.37%
1,752,493
16.16%
1,471,158
14.77%
1,189,823
13.48%
908,488
12.30%
627,153
11.20%
64,483
9.21%
(498,188)
7.47%
ALTERNATIVA II
VAN
TIR
2,861,030
23.19%
2,295,959
19.25%
1,730,888
16.05%
1,448,353
14.66%
1,165,818
13.38%
883,282
12.19%
600,747
11.10%
35,676
9.12%
(529,395)
7.38%
21.15%
INGRESOS
Anlisis de Sensibilidad
Variacin
(%)
-30%
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
30%
ALTERNATIVA I
VAN
TIR
(911,457)
5.26%
(211,031)
8.16%
489,396
10.89%
839,610
12.20%
1,189,823
13.48%
1,540,036
14.74%
1,890,250
15.97%
2,590,677
18.36%
3,291,103
20.68%
ALTERNATIVA II
VAN
TIR
(922,906)
5.23%
(222,479)
8.12%
477,948
10.84%
828,161
12.15%
1,178,374
13.42%
1,528,588
14.67%
1,878,801
15.90%
2,579,228
18.29%
3,279,655
20.60%
-16.99%
CRONOGRAMA FISICO
DESCRIPCION
Estudio
Infraestructura
TOTAL
100.0%
12.5%
37.5%
Capacitacion
37.5%
12.5%
100.0%
40.0%
60.0%
100.0%
Gastos de mitigacion
20.0%
20.0%
40.0%
20.0%
100.0%
Gastos generales
10.0%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
100.0%
Utilidad
10.0%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
100.0%
TOTAL
12.7%
34.7%
36.1%
16.6%
100.0%
CRONOGRAMA FINANCIERO
DESCRIPCION
Estudio
Infraestructura
70,000.00
2,006,281.46
Capacitacion
Gastos de mitigacion
TOTAL
2,006,281.46
668,760.49 5,350,083.90
86,991.60
130,487.40
217,479.00
6,000.00
6,000.00
12,000.00
6,000.00
30,000.00
Gastos generales
44,780.50
134,341.51
134,341.51
134,341.51
447,805.03
Utilidad
55,975.63
167,926.89
167,926.89
167,926.89
559,756.29
TOTAL
845,516.62
2,314,549.86
2,407,541.46
1,107,516.28 6,675,124.22
VAN
PRIVADO
(9%)
(Nuevos
Soles)
TIR SOCIAL
TIR
PRIVADO
ALTERNATIVA N 01
1,189,822.95
119,645.67
13.48%
9.40%
ALTERNATIVA N 02
1,165,817.59
90,932.61
13.38%
9.30%
ALTERNATIVAS
h) Recomendaciones finales.