We e k l yE c o n o m i cI n d i c a t o r s

14 March 2014

S t a t i s t i c sD e p a r t me n t

Real Sector & Inflation

Inflation decelerated further in February 2014 due to the moderate increase in the general price level over the previous month and the base effect. The contribution to inflation, in February 2014 came mainly from the non-food category. All the three sectors of the economy rebounded during the 3rd quarter of 2013, in comparison with the same tenure of the last year; where noteworthy recovery in the Agriculture Sector could be observed due to the improved Yala harvest.

Tea production in 2013 reached all time high of 340.2 million kg supported by favorable weather conditions in the first half of the year.

Key Highlights

The year-on-year growth of Factory Industry Production Index FIPI increased by 3.6 per cent on year-on-year basis in November 2013, mainly due to the increase in wearing apparel sector which recorded a highest growth of 10.9 per cent, supported by increased orders from U.S and Euro areas and also the shifting orders from Bangladesh due to safety issues expected to further facilitate the growth of this sector.

Crude oil prices showed some volatility during the beginning of March 2014. Higher prices were mainly caused by worries over supply disruptions of world's biggest oil producer, Russia due to their military intervention in Crimea peninsula in Ukraine. However, the increment in oil prices were restrained due to a drop in China's exports stocks reflecting a slowdown in the world's second largest economy.

Page 01

1.1 Price Indices

Item
(2006 / 07 = 100)
6.0 4.2 170.6 3.8 3.1 6.5 4.4 170.1 4.1 3.5 8.6 9.8 165.4 6.3 7.4
Anual Average

February 2014
177.8

Month Ago
177.5

Year Ago
170.7
10
9

CCPI - Anual Average

2014

Colombo Consumers' Price Index (CCPI ) Annual Average Change % Year - on - Year Change % Core Inflation - ( CCPI ) Annual Average Change % Year - on - Year Change %

8 7
6

2013

5 4 J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Month

1.2 Pettah Market

Average Wholesale Prices Average Retail Prices
Year Ago Annual Avg Week Ending Mar 13 Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago Annual Avg

Item

Week Ending Mar 13

Week Ago

Month Ago

Rs / Kg Rice Samba Kekulu (Red) Vegetables Beans Cabbage Carrots Tomatoes Pumpkins Snake Gourd Brinjals Ash-Plantains Other Foods Red-Onions (Local) Big-Onions (Local) Potatoes (N'Eliya) Dried Chilies (Imported) Dhal (Indian) Eggs (Red) Coconut (Each) Fish Kelawalla Balaya Salaya Paraw (Small) * Prices collected from the Fisheries
430.00 280.00 60.00 500.00 350.00 280.00 40.00 400.00 360.00 242.50 75.00 360.00 387.27 280.00 134.71 442.60 580.00 330.00 100.00 550.00 n.a n.a 82.50 187.00 135.00 14.50 38.00 65.00 n.a 85.00 183.00 134.00 14.50 39.00 60.00 n.a. 77.50 188.25 139.75 13.00 39.75 148.68 97.21 96.95 176.50 131.39 13.39 37.62 100.00 n.a 110.00 220.00 160.00 15.00 45.00 72.50 59.00 100.00 20.00 60.00 60.00 30.00 50.00 40.00 50.00 70.00 59.00 60.00 40.00 60.00 35.00 30.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 71.38 59.75 72.50 29.00 75.00 47.50 21.50 42.50 45.00 57.50 66.57 52.39 107.69 64.76 108.94 67.84 37.12 55.69 61.42 63.27 78.00 65.00 120.00 40.00 80.00 80.00 40.00 70.00 60.00 70.00

Rs / Kg
78.00 65.00 80.00 60.00 80.00 60.00 50.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 80.00 n.a 120.00 220.00 160.00 15.00 45.00 640.00 400.00 80.00 460.00 77.75 66.50 92.50 52.50 97.50 77.50 42.50 65.00 70.00 77.50 90.00 n.a. 100.00 220.00 157.50 13.50 50.00 421.25 292.50 105.00 405.00 70.46 59.60 134.42 92.88 133.46 99.81 57.60 80.77 85.58 84.23 182.38 127.22 117.31 219.71 148.85 13.89 43.98 477.31 341.76 179.04 505.60

Trade Centre, Peliyagoda.

page 02

82.00 72.00

Rice - Kakulu
Rs./kg 2013 2012

82 72 62 52 42 32 F/1

Rice - Kakulu
2013 2012

Rs./kg

62.00 52.00
42.00

32.00 F/1 A/1 Jy/1 M/1 M/1 A/1 O/1 N/1 S/1 D/5 D/1 J/1 J/1

A/1

M/1

M/1

A/1

O/1

N/1

Months

240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 F/1 A/1 M/1 M/1 J/1

Beans

Beans
2013 Rs./kg
2012
270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 F/1 Jy/1 M/1 M/1 A/1 A/1 O/1 N/1 S/1

Jy/1

Months

D/5

D/1

J/1

J/1

S/1

Rs./kg

2013 2012

Jy/1

A/1

O/1

N/1

S/1

D/5

D/1

J/1

Months

Months

180

Potatoes
Rs./kg

190 160 130 100 70 40

Potatoes

Rs./kg

150 120 90 60 30 F/1 A/1 Jy/1 M/1 M/1 A/1 O/1 N/1 S/1 D/5 D/1 J/1 J/1

D/1

J/1

J/1

2013 2012 Months

2013 2012
J/1 J/4 F/3 M/2 A/1 A/4 M/3 J/2 Jy/1 Jy/4 A/3 S/2 O/1 O/4 N/3 D/2

Months

J/1 J/4 F/3 M/2 A/1 A/4 M/3 J/2 Jy/1 Jy/4 A/3 S/2 O/1 O/4 N/3 D/2

Months

1.3 Dambulla Market

Item (Rs / Kg)
Rice Samba Kekulu (Red) Vegetables Beans Carrot Tomatoes Pumpkins Snake Gourd Ash-Plantains Other Foods Red-Onions (Local) Big-Onions (Local) Potatoes (N'Eliya) Dried Chilies(Imported) Coconut (Each)
55.00 n.a 84.00 195.30 33.60 72.50 102.00 240.00 42.50 71.00 46.50 26.10 22.90 23.50 39.00 101.00 83.00 54.00 41.00 42.50 57.50 73.00 59.50 76.00 63.50 Week Ending Mar 13 Wholesale (Average) Retail (Average)

1.4 Narahenpita Economic Centre

Item (Rs / Kg)
Rice Samba Kekulu (Red) Vegetables Beans Cabbage Carrots Tomatoes Pumpkins Snake Gourd Brinjals Ash-Plantains Red-Onions (Imported) Big-Onions (Imported) Potatoes (Imported) Dried Chilies (Imported) Dhal (Indian) Eggs (Red)(Each) Year Ago
62.64 52.03 49.55 53.71 n.a Other Foods 120.00 60.00 76.67 220.00 160.00 15.00 48.33 550.00 n.a. 60.00 590.00 106.67 76.67 80.00 220.00 163.33 14.50 46.67 650.00 360.00 80.00 840.00 90.00 70.00 96.67 80.00 66.67 100.00 73.33 100.00 86.67 70.00 100.00 80.00 66.67 106.67 73.33 93.33 75.33 56.67 75.33 58.00 Average Retail Prices Mar 12 Week Ago

Table 1.5 Maradagahamula Market

Average wholesale price of Rice
Item (Rs / Kg) Samba Sudu Kekulu Raw Red Nadu
Week Ending Mar 14 66.02 61.20 57.70 62.14

Week Ago
63.70 60.90 57.52 61.72

Month Ago
65.57 60.94 55.91 62.07

Coconut (Each) Fish Kelawalla Balaya Salaya Paraw (Small)

Page 03

J/1 J/4 F/3 M/2 A/1 A/4 M/3 J/2 Jy/1 Jy/4 A/3 S/2 O/1 O/4 N/3 D/2

550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200

Kelawalla
Rs./kg

625 550 475 400 325 250

Kelawalla

Rs./kg

2013 2012

2013 2012

Months

1.6 Wage rate Indices

Item
(1978 = 100)
Index Value

2013(a) Dec
5,653.3 3,938.1 4,449.0 3,459.1 2,313.2

2012 Dec
5,304.7 3,662.9 4,434.4 2,402.1 1,851.8

% Change
6.6 7.5 0.3 44.0 24.9

6000 5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200

Wage Indices (1978 = 100)

Central Govt. Wages Boards

Central Government Employees (b) Workers in Wages Boards Trades Agriculture Industry & Commerce Services

Months

1.7 Factory Industry-Production (FIPI) ( 2010 = 100 ) (a)

Item
Factory Industry- Production Index 2013 (b) Nov
112.8

2012 Nov
108.8 107.3 95.0 94.4 126.0 94.1 114.8 104.0

% Change
3.6 -4.4 4.3 9.1 10.9 -10.3 6.5 -3.0
Index
130 120 110 100 90 80

Factory Industrial Production

Food products 102.6 Beverages 99.0 Tobacco products 103.0 Wearing apparel 139.7 Chemicals and chemical products 84.3 Rubber and plastic products 122.3 Other non-metallic mineral products 100.8 (a) Major 7 sub divisions of FIPI out of 17 sub divisions. (b) Provisional

2012 2013
J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Months

1.8 Agriculture Production

Item
Tea Rubber Coconuts * Provisional

Unit
(Mn Kg) (Mn Kg) (Mn Nuts)

2013*
Jan - Dec 340.2 130.4 2,513.3

2012*
Jan - Dec 328.4 152.0 2,939.5

% Change
3.6 -14.2 -14.5
Mn.kg.

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 J F M

Tea Production

2013 2012
A M J Jy Au S O N D

Months

1.9 GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant (2002) Prices - Growth Rates

Percentage Change

Item
Agriculture Industry Services GDP * Provisional

2013*
3
rd

2012
3
rd

2012 Annual
5.8 10.3 4.6 6.4

Quarter 7.0 8.1 7.9 7.8

Quarter -0.5 7.3 4.6 4.8

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Real GDP

10' 10' 10' 10' 11' 11' 11' 11' 12' 12' 12' 12' 13' 13' 13' Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Quater

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

Page 04

1.10 Employment
Item
Labour Force Participation rate Unemployment rate Employed Persons by Sectors % Agriculture Industry Services
(a) The working age population aged 15 and above

2013(a)
2nd Quarter 54.2 4.4

2012(a) 2nd Quarter 51.5 3.9

2012(a)
Annual 52.6 4.0

31.5 26.2 42.3

30.3 26.9 42.8

31.4 26.3 42.3

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

12 10

Unemployment Rate

140 120

Crude Oil Prices

Brent WTI

Rate

6 4 2 0

5.3

5.2

5.1 5.2

5.3

6.2 5.7 5.4 5.9 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.9 5.0 4.9 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.4

Index Value

100 80 60

'1Q 08 '2Q 08 '3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 2Q 13

Year/Quarter

1.11 Average Crude Oil Prices

2013
Spot Prices (US $/bbl)

Month

Brent (Benchmark price)

WTI (Benchmark price) 94.76 95.32 92.94 92.02 94.51 95.77 104.51 106.58 106.19 100.54 93.77 97.62 2013 91.53 92.07 92.44 92.47

CPC Import Prices (C&F) (US$/bbl)(*) 111.22 111.16 106.57 111.17 108.91 105.29 113.48 111.01 110.39 112.13

January February March April May June July August September October November December 07 March 10 March 11 March 12 March 13 March

113.95 117.39 109.63 103.40 103.04 103.16 108.62 112.94 113.63 109.88 108.10 111.37 111.58 109.80 109.64 108.67

Sources: Reuters Energy Information Administration Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (*) CPC import prices are not directly comparable with spot prices of WTI and Brent as CPC is import prices include freight charges and the price is weighted for average prices of different types of crude oil. Also Part of the imports of CPC are on a term contract basis.

Page 05

Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

Months

2014
Spot Prices (US $/bbl) Brent (Benchmark price) 109.21 110.01 WTI (Benchmark price) 94.71 100.82 CPC Import Prices (C&F) (US$/bbl)(*) 112.75 109.31

2014 110.04 109.17 109.25 108.78 108.36 102.82 101.39 100.29 98.29 98.57

Monetary Sector
All short term market lending rates continued to adjust downwards from end 2013 levels in response to the compression of the Standing Rate Corridor (SRC) and excess liquidity. Weekly AWPR declined by 125 bps to 8.88 per cent for the week ending 14 March 2014 compared to end 2013. The Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR) and the Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) for February 2014 also declined by 54 basis points (to 8.83 per cent) and 79 basis points (to 10.99 per cent), respectively from end 2013.

The growth of credit extended to the private sector, on a year-on-year basis in December 2013 was 7.5 per cent compared to 7.3 per cent in November 2013.

Key Highlights

The reserve money has been increased compared to the previous week mainly due to increase in currency in circulation (i.e. due to net currency withdrawals with the CBSL by the commercial banks).

The total outstanding market liquidity has been fluctuating around Rs 197 billion through out the week. This has been absorbed through various OMO instruments. Majority of the liquidity have been absorbed through the Term Repo transactions while another considerable amount has been absorbed through Short-term repo auctions.

The All Share Price Index (ASPI) and the S&P SL 20 Index decreased marginally by 0.28 per cent and 1.74 per cent to 5,896.2 points and 3,207.1 points, respectively by 14 March 2014 compared to end 2013.

page 06

2.1 Interest Rates

Item
Commercial Bank Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) Treasury Bill Yield (Excluding 10% withholding tax) - 91 days - 182 days - 364 days Standing Deposit Facility Standing Lending Facility Call Money Weekly Average (CMR) Sri Lanka Inter Bank Offer Rate ( SLIBOR ) 1 day 7 days 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months Commercial Banks Saving Deposits One Year Fixed Deposits Commercial Bank Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR) Commercial Bank Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) Commercial Bank Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR) NSB Saving Deposits One Year Fixed Deposits Treasury Bonds Auction Coupon rate Weighted Average Yield (Excluding 10% withholding tax) Bankwise- AWPR
Bank of Ceylon People's Bank Hatton National Bank Commercial Bank of Ceylon Sampath Bank Seylan Bank Union Bank of Colombo Pan Asia Banking Corporation Nations Trust Bank DFCC Vardhana Bank NDB Bank Amana Bank Week ending March 14 11.74 10.63 8.80 8.25 9.16 9.16 9.91 9.00 8.41 11.62 8.22 10.45 Week Ago 11.92 12.57 8.81 7.97 8.29 9.60 11.62 9.00 8.27 11.37 8.21 10.44

Week Ending March 14

8.88 6.69 6.85 7.06 6.50 8.00 6.91 7.00 7.60 8.03 8.49 8.87 9.36

Week Ago
8.74 6.71 6.88 7.07 6.50 8.50 6.88 7.00 7.60 8.02 8.50 8.90 9.41

Year Ago
13.81 9.16 10.15 11.19 7.50 9.50 9.42 9.48 10.17 12.03 12.84 13.33 13.86

Oct 2013
0.75-9.00 6.00-16.00

Month Ago
0.75-9.00 6.00-16.00

Year Ago
0.75-10.50 5.00-16.00

Feb 2014
8.83 10.99

Month Ago
9.14 11.46

Year Ago
10.56 13.82

Jan 2014
14.83

Month Ago
15.18

Year Ago
16.12

Oct 2013
5.00 10.00
(08 Y & 04 Months) 26/02/2014

Month Ago
5.00 10.00
(09 Y & 10 Months) 26/02/2014

Year Ago
5.00 12.50
(14 Y & 10 Months) 26/02/2014

11.20 9.90

11.40 10.00 Week ending March 14 9.42 9.42 9.72 8.51 8.04 10.90 11.40 10.00 12.26 13.09 10.09 -

13.00 10.76 Week Ago 9.38 9.46 10.26 10.08 8.04 10.90 11.40 9.42 11.71 13.09 10.09 -

Bankwise- AWPR
HSBC Standard Chartered Bank Citi Bank Deutsche Bank Habib Bank Indian Bank Indian Overseas Bank MCB Bank State Bank of India Public Bank ICICI Bank Axis Bank

12 11
10

Call Money Rates

Min Avg Max

Rate

8 7 6 J A /12 Jy O J A /13 Jy O

Rate

9.4 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.4

Weekly
Min Avg

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Months

Last 4 Weeks

Page 07

2.2 Money Supply

Rs. Bn. Annual Change (%) Year Ago
450.0 2,593.2 2,929.1 -25.8 396.5 -121.9 -300.4 2,954.9 2,541.5 413.4 1,045.2 278.8 634.0 132.4 292.5 91.3 201.2 2,358.4 2,172.1 186.3 484.4

Item
M1 M2 M2b Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System (b) Monetary Authorities Domestic Banking Units (DBUs) Foreign currency Banking Units (FCBUs) Net Domestic Assets of the Banking System (b) DBUs FCBUs Net Credit to Government Monetary Authorities DBUs FCBUs Credit to Corporations DBUs FCBUs Credit to the Private Sector DBUs FCBUs Reserve Money (a) Provisional (b) In relation to M2b

2013 (a) December

484.6 3,058.8 3,417.9 -76.3 529.1 -231.2 -374.3 3,494.2 2,996.5 497.7 1,301.3 114.0 995.7 191.7 365.1 164.7 200.4 2,534.3 2,327.4 207.0 488.6

Month Ago
454.4 2,997.7 3,363.1 -63.6 479.9 -197.4 -346.1 3,426.7 2,947.5 479.2 1,325.5 127.8 1,005.4 192.4 308.0 124.5 183.5 2,519.0 2,309.3 209.7 472.0

2013 (a) December

7.7 18.0 16.7 -195.5 33.5 -89.7 -24.6 18.3 17.9 20.4 24.5 -59.1 57.0 44.8 24.8 80.4 -0.4 7.5 7.1 11.1 0.9

Month Ago
5.7 18.5 16.7 -154.0 34.8 -75.0 -29.1 17.9 17.2 22.9 25.6 -61.3 70.6 41.8 18.0 72.1 -2.8 7.3 7.0 9.9 -1.0

Year Ago
2.6 18.3 17.6 -126.3 16.6 -91.2 -68.5 23.4 19.1 59.2 25.4 6.1 34.1 35.0 47.3 27.8 58.3 17.6 19.2 1.1 10.2

13.5

Money Supply - M1
2012 2013 Percentage
24 23 22 21
20 19

Money Supply - M2
2012 2013
24 22

Money Supply - M2b

2012 2013

8.5

Percentage

Percentage

3.5
-1.5

20 18 16 14

18 17 16 J F M A M

-6.5 J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Months

Months

J Jy A

M A

J Jy A

Months

2.3 Weekly change in Reserve Money

Item
Reserve Money (Rs.Mn.) 13 March 2014
506,425

Week Ago
498,470

Change
600

Weekly change in Reserve Money

7,955
Rs.Bn.

550 500 450 400 F/3

M/5 M/2

2013 2012

2.4 Money Market Activity (Overnight)

Item
Call Money Market Weighted Average Rate (% p.a.) Gross Volume (Rs. Mn) Repo Market Weighted Average Rate (% p.a.) Gross Volume (Rs. Mn)
6.89 2,125 6.88 6,330 6.89 5,382 6.95 5,300 6.94 3,610 10.03.2014 11.03.2014 12.03.2014 13.03.2014 14.03.2014

A/1

J/1

Months

2.5 CBSL Security Portfolio

Item
CBSL T-Bill Holding (Rs. Mn)
10.03.2014 11.03.2014 12.03.2014 13.03.2014 14.03.2014 49,597 49,597 49,597 Page 08 49,597 39,990

O/4

D/2

J/4

S/3

2.6 Open Market Operations

Item Short-Term Auction
Repo Amount Offered (Rs. bn) Reverse Repo Amount Offered (Rs. bn) Tenure (No. of Days) Bids Received (Rs. bn) Amount Accepted (Rs. bn) Weighted Average Yield Rate (% p.a.) 10.00 4.00 10.56 10.00 6.64 7.07 5.19 3.36 0.86 20.00 7.00 2.80 2.80 6.67 21.62 21.19 10.03.2014 11.03.2014 12.03.2014 13.03.2014 14.03.2014

Term Auction
Repo Amount Accepted (Rs. bn) Reverse Repo Amount Accepted (Rs. bn)

Standing Facility
Standing Deposit Facility (Rs. bn) Standing Lending Facility (Rs. bn)

Total Outstanding Market Liquidity (Rs. bn)

203.24

201.36

199.53

197.04

182.40

2.7 Credit Cards *

Item Total Number of Active Cards Local (accepted only locally) Global (accepted globally) Outstanding balance (Rs. Mn.) Local (accepted only locally) Global (accepted globally) (a) Provisional (b) Revised * Issued by Licensed Commercial Banks 2013 (a) End Sep
926,614 36,749 889,865 49,305 1,204 48,101

2013(b) End Aug

938,621 36,973 901,648 48,339 1,201 47,138

2012 End Dec

891,170 39,963 851,207 44,445 1,183 43,262

2.8 Commercial Paper Issues (1)

Item ( Rs. bn.) Total Issues - Cummulative Outstandin (as at end of the period ) 2013 (a) End Sep*
21.9 9.3

Commercial Paper Issues

2013 End Aug
20.2 9.4

2012
36.9 10.6
Rs.Bn

End Dec

* provisional (1) Based on the information provided by Licensed Commercial Banks and Licensed Specialised Banks

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

2012 2013 J F M A M J Jy A S O N D Month

2.9 Share Market

Item All Share Price Index (1985 = 100) (ASPI) S & P Sri Lanka 20 Index (S&P SL20) Average Daily Turnover (Rs. Mn) Market Capitalisation (Rs.Bn.)
Week Ending 14 Mar 2014 5,896 3,207 421 2,463 Week Ago 5,966 3,245 372 2,492 Year Ago 5,689 3,241 700 2,187

7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000

Share Market - Month End

Index

Index

ASPI S&P

7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 1 3

Share Market - Daily

ASPI S&P

J ,12 M

Jy

Months

N J '13 M

Jy

Months

11

13

15

17

19

Page 09

Fiscal Sector
Total revenue collection during the first nine months of 2013 increased largely through higher collection of income and domestic consumption based taxes, reflecting an improvement in the tax revenue collection. Capital expenditure was maintained at a healthy level with the continuation of major infrastructure projects. . Total debt stock as at end September 2013 marginally increased from the previous month due to an increase in the foreign debt stock arising from project related financing and foreign investments in government securities.

Key Highlights

page 10

3.1 Government Finance (Rs.bn)

Item
Revenue and Grants Revenue Tax Non tax Grants Expenditure & Lending Minus Repayments Current Capital & Lending Minus Repayments 2013 * Jan-Sep
783.2 780.2 706.7 73.5 3.0 1,275.10 920.0 355.1

2012 Jan-Sep
774.3 759.9 678.1 81.8 14.4 1257.4 886.2 371.2

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Government Revenue & Expenditure 2013

Revenue

Rs.Bn.

J F 13

A M J Jy A Months

* Provisional

3.2 Government Debt (Rs.bn)

Item Total domestic debt of which Treasury bills Treasury bonds Rupee loans Total foreign debt Total outstanding govt. debt * Provisional 2013 * End Sep Month ago Year ago
5000 4000

3,828.8 719.0 2,421.5 55.5 2,971.6

3,835.6 771.4 2,449.1 55.5 2,948.4

3,280.4

Rs.Bn

Government Debt
Domestic Foreign

626.8 3000 2,161.8 2000 58.4 1000 2,887.9 6,168.4

0

6,800.4

6,784.0

2013 / Apr 2013 / Aug 2013 / Sep

3.3 Government Securities - Primary and Secondary Market Yield Rates as of 2014.03.12
Primary Market* Security Maturity This Week Last Week Buying Secondary Market This Week Selling Average Last Week Average
6.72% 6.85% 7.06% 7.48% 9.39% 9.91% 10.12% 10.33% 10.79% 11.00% 11.34%

3 Months 6.69% 6.72% 6.76% 6.65% 6.71% 6 Months 6.85% 6.89% 6.91% 6.78% 6.85% 12 Months 7.06% 7.07% 7.10% 7.01% 7.05% 2 < Years 7.63% 7.55% 7.59% 5 < Years 8.83% 9.58% 9.38% 9.48% 6 < Years 9.98% 9.87% 9.93% 8 < Years 9.90% 10.22% 10.08% 10.15% Treasury Bonds 10 < Years 10.00% 10.46% 10.29% 10.38% 15 < Years 10.76% 10.76% 10.85% 10.73% 10.79% 20 < Years 11.07% 11.13% 10.87% 11.00% 30 < Years 11.53% 11.15% 11.34% * Primary market transactions during the week ending 12/03/2014 Comments: Preassure on the domestic market was eased due to Intaernational Sovereign Bond Issue in January 2014. Treasury Bills

13.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00%

Treasury Bills

13.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00%

Treasury Bonds

Yield

Yield

Current

Current Year Ago

Page 11

3.4 Government Securities - Weekly Summary of Primary and Secondary Market Transactions
Item/ Week Ended Outstanding Stock of Government Securities Treasury Bills Treasury Bonds Total Government Securities held by Foreigners 827,488.51 3,027,989.03 3,855,477.54 489,713.12 829,642.60 3,003,590.25 3,833,232.85 489,205.47 368,798.59 Volume in Rs Mn This Week Last Week

Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDB) 368,507.74 Comment: Foreign holdings on government securities has increased showing improved investor confidence. Primary Market Activities Treasury Bills Amount Offered Total Bids Received Total Bids Accepted Treasury Bonds Amount Offered Total Bids Received Total Bids Accepted No Auction held 10,000.00 36,082.00 18,252.00 Volume in Rs Mn This Week

Last Week

18,000.00 53,713.00 27,073.00

No Auction held

Comment: The ratio of amount accepted to amount offered in the T bill auction has been increased to 1.8 comparative to the same ratio of 1.5 of the previous week's auction, illustrating the improved investor preference for the government papers. Secondary Market Activities Treasury Bills Outright Transaction (Sales / Purchases) Repo Transaction (Sales / Purchases) Treasury Bonds Outright Transaction (Sales / Purchases) Repo Transaction (Sales / Purchases) improved confidence. Volume in Rs Mn This Week 47,713.27 188,136.00 Last Week 44,555.90 184,445.10

58,380.95 221,496.35

58,642.80 173,153.10

Comment: Secondary Market repo transactions on T bonds has increased showing the investor preference on leveraging due to

page 12

External Sector
During the year so far (up to 14 February 2014) the rupee remained almost flat against the US dollar with a slight appreciation of 0.09 per cent. Given the cross currency exchange rate movements, the Sri Lanka rupee depreciated against the euro (0.39 per cent), the pound sterling (0.72 per cent), the Japanese yen (2.91 per cent) and the Indian rupee (1.11 per cent) during this period. Exports recovered in 2013, despite the downward movement in commodity prices in the international market and a fragile recovery in the global economy. The largest contribution to the growth in earnings came from industrial exports, mainly due to the improved performance in textiles and garments, which contributed 43 per cent to total export earnings in 2013. Expenditure on imports declined in 2013, reflecting the impact of policy measures adopted in 2012 to rationalise imports as well as due to subdued commodity prices in international markets. The trade deficit contracted sharply in 2013 with the pickup in exports together with the continued decline in imports. The reduction in import price index year-on-year, over increase in export price index resulted in an improvement in the terms of trade in December 2013. In line with the significant price reduction recorded for key commodities in international markets such as petroleum products, the import price index declined in December 2013. The export price index increased, driven by the increase in prices of textiles and garments and tea, the two major export items which account for more than 60 per cent of total exports. The average price of tea in the Colombo auction continued to increase compared to other major tea auction centres in December 2013, mainly due to increased demand for high quality Ceylon tea. The continued peaceful environment in the country together with strategic investments and tourist promotional campaigns resulted in a significant increase in tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka in 2013. Tourist arrivals in 2013 amounted to 1,274,593, surpassing the initial target of 1.2 million to record arrivals. Although Western Europe continued to be the prime source market for tourists to Sri Lanka, tourist arrivals from emerging markets increased significantly in 2013. Gross earnings from workers remittances increased notably, due to increase in remitting money through formal channels, specially because of the introduction of new web based money transferring systems.

Key Highlights

page 13

4.1 Exchange Rates

Item
(Rs Per Unit)*

Week Ending - March 14 Buying Rate

129.20 214.01 1.26 178.12

Average Rate Week Ago

130.60 218.52 1.27 180.66 2.14 202.61

Selling Rate
132.10 220.16 1.30 183.98

US$ STG Yen Euro INR(1) SDR

Average Rate
130.65 217.09 1.28 181.05 2.14 202.87

Year Ago
126.33 190.63 1.32 164.29 2.33 190.38

240 200

Month End
STG US$

( As at 13 Mar 2014 )

Rate

160 120 80 O J /12 O J/13 Jy J/11 Jy A A

Central Bank purchases and sales** (US$ Mn. )

Purchases Sales

December 2013
239.20 11.45

Month Ago
20.00 51.38

Year Ago
77.00 6.30

Months

Week Ending March 14

67.57

Week Ago
56.38

Year Ago
73.28

Average Daily Interbank Volume (US$ Mn.) (spot, tom and cash transactions among commercial banks) Forward Transactions Forward Rates (US$) 1 Month 3 Months Average Daily Interbank Forward Volume (US$ mn) Outstanding Forward Volume (US$ mn) ( As at 13 Mar 2014 )
*Commercial Bank Avg. Middle Rate (prevailing at 9.30a.m.)
(2)

131.12 132.14 28.58 964.50

131.20 132.64 16.05 922.56

127.49 129.18 28.03 1,000.77

**Central Bank purchases and sales of foreign exchange from commercial banks at market rates total for the Month (1) Central Bank indicative rate (2) Weekly average based on actual transactions.

4.2 Tourism & Workers' Remittances

Item
Tourist Arrivals Earnings from Tourism US$ Mn. Rs.bn. US$ Mn. Rs. bn. Dec 2013
153,918 169.3 (a) 22.2 (a) 622.5 (b) 81.4 (b)

Dec 2012
122,252 133.5 17.1 553.2 71.0

2013* Jan - Dec

1,274,593 1,402.1 (a) 181.2 (a) 6,621.1 (b) 855.3 (b)

2012 Jan - Dec

1,005,605 1,038.7 132.4 5,985.3 764.0

% Change
26.7 35.0 36.8 10.6 12.0

Workers' Remittances (Inflows) (a) Provisional

1200 1040 880 720 560 400 240 80 J

(b) Revised

Tourist Arrivals Cumulative

No of arrivals '000

2012 2013
F M A M

800 700 600 500 400 300 200

Private Remittances - Inflows

US$ Mn

2013 2012
J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Month

Jy

Month

Page 14

4.3 International Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity as at 30 November 2013 (a)
Official Reserve Assets (USD mn)
Official Reserve Assets (1) Foreign currency reserves (a) Securities (b) Total currency and deposits with (i) other national central banks (ii) banks headquartered outside the reporting country (2) Reserve position in the IMF (3) SDRs (4) Gold (5) Other reserve assets
(b)

7,005.11

(c)

6,001.30 3,287.28 2,714.02 957.24 1,756.78 73.47 15.50 913.87 0.98

Predetermined Short-Term Net Drains on Foreign Currency Assets(d)

Maturity breakdown (residual maturity) Item Total Up to 1 month 1. Foreign currency loans, securities, and deposits outflows () inflows (+) Principal Interest Principal Interest
-3,212.31 -1,252.41 -177.40 -44.37 -401.13 -255.37 -2,633.78 -952.67

More than 1 and up to 3 months

More than 3 months and up to 1 year

2. Aggregate short and long positions in forwards and futures in foreign currencies vis--vis the domestic currency (including the forward leg of currency swaps) (a) Short positions ()(e) (b) Long positions (+) 3. Other (specify) inflows related to reverse repos (+) other accounts payable () (a) Provisional (b) Including the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) balances (c) By end November 2013, the total level of foreign reserves were equivalent to 5.6 months of imports and gross official reserves were equivalent to 4.7 months of imports (d) This mainly includes only the predetermined outflows (e) A major share of SWAP outstanding will be rolled over.This mainly includes SWAP arrangements with state banks which mobilised long-term foreign finance from international bond issuances.
819.37 819.46 -0.09 819.37 819.46 -0.09 -2,063.00 -212.87 -147.00 -1,703.13

Page 15

4.4 External Trade

US$ Bn Rs Bn % Change
6.3 10.7 5.0 -17.3 13.0 -7.6 5.4 -6.5 -15.9 26.6 -6.2 6.3 -8.9 -7.3 -50.0 19.2

Item
Exports Agricultural Industrial Food, Beverages and Tobacco Textiles and Apparel Petroleum Products Leather, Rubber etc Other Mineral Other Imports Consumer Goods Intermediate Goods Investment Goods Other Trade Balance

Jan-Dec 2013
10.4 2.6 7.7 0.2 4.5 0.4 1.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 18.0 3.2 10.6 4.3 0.0 -7.6

Jan-Dec 2012
9.8 2.3 7.4 0.3 4.0 0.5 0.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 19.2 3.0 11.6 4.6 0.0 -9.4

Jan-Dec 2013
1,343.0 333.9 1,000.7 30.4 583.0 55.1 124.7 207.4 6.7 1.6 2,322.7 411.0 1,361.3 548.6 1.8 -979.7

Jan-Dec 2012
1,245.5 297.7 938.8 36.3 508.6 58.9 116.5 218.4 7.8 1.2 2,441.9 381.0 1,474.5 582.9 3.5 -1,196.3

% Change
7.8 12.2 6.6 -16.2 14.6 -6.4 7.0 -5.0 -14.1 29.2 -4.9 7.9 -7.7 -5.9 -48.2 18.1

22500 20000 17500 15000 12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 0 J

Imports

12000 10000 6000 4000 2000 0 J M 8000

Exports

TRADE INDICES
128 108 88 68 of Trade

Terms (2010=100)

550 500 450 400 350 300

Tea Prices(Imported)

US$ Mn

2012 2013
M M Jy S N

Index Value

US$ Mn

Rs./Kg.

2012

2012
M Jy S N

2012 2013
J M M Jy S N

Months

Months

J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Months

Months

4.5 Trade Indices (2010= 100 )

Item
Total Exports Value Quantity Unit Value Total Imports
124.3 111.6 106.0 ** Provisional 131.9 106.5 111.0 121.3 112.2 104.8 137.5 116.2 118.3 138.8 143.6 121.5 118.2 140.5 121.2 103.1 117.6

120

Rice rices(Imported)

December

Ago

Ago

Rs./Kg.

2013**

Month

Year

100 80 60

2012
J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Months

Rs'000./Barrel.

Value Quantity Unit Value Terms of Trade

* In US$ Terms

136.0

18 15 12

Crude Oil (Imported)

2012 2013
J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Months

4.6 International Commodity Prices

Item
Colombo Auction Price Tea Prices Imports (C I F) Rice White Sugar Wheat Crude Oil
704.00 480.75 310.85 112.13 Page 16 3.81

Dec 2013

Dec 2012 US$ / Kg

3.30

% Change

Dec 2013
497.97 92,103 62,895 40,668 14,670

Dec 2012 Rs / Kg
424.06

% Change

15.2 -1.1 -17.8 -18.6 -1.9

17.4 0.8 -16.2 -17.0 0.0

US$ / MT
711.57 584.90 381.83

Rs / MT
91,327 75,070 49,007

US$ / Barrel
114.25

Rs / Barrel
14,664