EL NIO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and !e In e"na i#na$ Resea"%! Ins i u e &#" C$i'a e and S#%ie y
( Ma"%! )*+,

ENSO A$e" Sys e' S a us- E$ Ni.# Wa %!

Syn#/sis- ENSO0neu "a$ is e1/e% ed # %#n inue !"#u2! !e N#" !e"n He'is/!e"e s/"in2 )*+,3 4i ! ab#u a 5*6 %!an%e #& E$ Ni.# de7e$#/in2 du"in2 !e su''e" #" &a$$8 ENSO-neutral continued during February 2014, with below-average sea surface te !eratures "SS#$ continuing in the eastern e%uatorial &acific Ocean and above-average SS#s increasing near the 'nternational (ate )ine "Fig* 1$* Overall, the wee+ly Ni,o indices were variable during the onth, with ost indices re aining less than -0*-./ "Fig* 2$* 0 significant downwelling oceanic 1elvin wave increased the oceanic heat content "Fig* 2$ and !roduced large !ositive subsurface te !erature ano alies across the central and east-central &acific "Fig* 4$* 'n addition, toward the end of the onth, strong lowlevel westerly winds re-a!!eared over the western e%uatorial &acific* /onvection was su!!ressed over western 'ndonesia and the central e%uatorial &acific "Fig* -$* /ollectively, these at os!heric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral* #he odel !redictions of ENSO for this su er and beyond are relatively unchanged fro last onth* 0l ost all the odels indicate that ENSO-neutral "Ni,o-2*4 inde3 between -0*-./ and 0*-./$ will !ersist through the rest of the Northern 4e is!here s!ring 2014 "Fig* 5$* 6hile all odels !redict war ing in the tro!ical &acific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Ni,o will develo! during the su er or fall* 'f westerly winds continue to e erge in the western e%uatorial &acific, the develo! ent of El Ni,o would beco e ore li+ely* 4owever, the lower forecast s+ill during the s!ring and overall !ro!ensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still 7ustify significant !robabilities for ENSO-neutral* #he consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern 4e is!here s!ring 2014, with about a -08 chance of El Ni,o develo!ing during the su er or fall "click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome). #his discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and 0t os!heric 0d inistration "NO00$, NO009s National 6eather Service, and their funded institutions* Oceanic and at os!heric conditions are u!dated wee+ly on the /li ate &rediction /enter web site "El Ni,o:)a Ni,a /urrent /onditions and E3!ert (iscussions$* Forecasts for the evolution of El Ni,o:)a Ni,a are u!dated onthly in the Forecast Foru section of /&/;s /li ate (iagnostics <ulletin* #he ne3t ENSO (iagnostics (iscussion is scheduled for 10 0!ril 2014* #o receive an e- ail notification when the onthly ENSO (iagnostic (iscussions are released, !lease send an e- ail essage to= nce!*list*enso-u!date>noaa*gov*
/li ate &rediction /enter National /enters for Environ ental &rediction NO00:National 6eather Service /ollege &ar+, ?( 20@40

Figure 1* 0verage wee+ly sea surface te !erature "SS#$ ano alies "./$ centered on - A 25 February 2014* 0no alies are co !uted with res!ect to the 1BC1-2010 base !eriod wee+ly eans*

Figure 2* #i e series of area-averaged sea surface te !erature "SS#$ ano alies "./$ in the Ni,o regions DNi,o-1E2 "0.-10.S, B0.6-C0.6$, Ni,o 2 "-.N--.S, 1-0.6-B0.6$, Ni,o-2*4 "-.N--.S, 1@0.6120.6$, Ni,o-4 "-FN--FS , 1-0F6-150FEG* SS# ano alies are de!artures fro the 1BC1-2010 base !eriod wee+ly eans*

Figure 2* 0rea-averaged u!!er-ocean heat content ano aly "./$ in the e%uatorial &acific "-.N--.S, 1C0F100F6$* #he heat content ano aly is co !uted as the de!arture fro the 1BC1-2010 base !eriod !entad eans*

Figure 4* (e!th-longitude section of e%uatorial &acific u!!er-ocean "0-200 $ te !erature ano alies "./$ centered on the !entad of 2@ February 2014* #he ano alies are averaged between -.N--.S* 0no alies are de!artures fro the 1BC1-2010 base !eriod !entad eans*

Figure -* 0verage outgoing longwave radiation "O)H$ ano alies "6: 2$ for the !eriod 2A 2@ February 2014* O)H ano alies are co !uted as de!artures fro the 1B@B-1BB- base !eriod !entad eans*

D#4n4e$$in2

Figure 6. Forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the Ni o 3.4 region "-.N--.S, 120.61@0.6$. Figure updated 18 February 2014.