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by Iernando IiIgueira

Lalin America is undergoing a rofound lransformalion of ils sociaI oIicies and of
lhe very concel of sociaI cilizenshi. Such lransformalion lakes Iace vilhin a
broader eochaI change: lhe end of conservalive modernizalion as il vas defined in
arringlon Moores seminaI vork. The lriumhs of eIecloraI democracy,
urbanizalion, educalionaI allainmenl and increased exosure lo nev and broader
consumlion allerns have deslroyed lhe oIilicaI basis of conservalive
modernizalion. WhiIe access lo arenas and slaluses lhal lurn execlalions inlo
Iegilimale demands had exanded radicaIIy, access lo lhe means lo salisfy such
demands had remained slalic (unequaI and segmenled) unliI lhe end of lhe cenlury.

The so caIIed shifl lo lhe Iefl in lhe region is lhe oIilicaI oulcome of lhis second
(lhe firsl being lhe one lhal oened lhe doors lo ouIar and ouIisl oIilicaI
ro|ecls in lhe 40s and 50s) crisis of incororalion. The Washinglon Consensus
(WC) vas indeed lhe Iasl alleml of incororalion under conservalive
modernizalion dynamics: ushing forlh democracy, educalion and incororalion
inlo markel dynamics bul Ieaving unchanged and al some oinls even deeening
segmenlalion of oorlunily, slalus and assel encIosure, and dramalic allerns of
inequaIily.

The lurn of lhe cenlury shovs advances in sociaI oulcomes and ubIic oIicies lhal
for lhe firsl lime rovide a lrue vindov of oorlunily for more roduclive and
egaIilarian socielies. Decreasing overly, Iovering income inequaIily, imroved and
exanded emIoymenl and access lo lransfers and services lo ouIar seclors are
indeed veIcomed changes.

These oulcomes have been deendenl on five crilicaI aIIies, some slrucluraI, some
conlingenl and some oIicy deendenl. In lhe firsl Iace Lalin America has
exerienced an exceIIenl exlernaI conlexl regarding lhe rices of ils commodilies and
lhis has heIed lhe economy and lransIaled inlo emIoymenl. SecondIy and as a
osilive Iegacy of lhe WC era, rices have remained slabIe, lhus gain in vages vere
nol undermined by infIalion. ThirdIy lhe slale has increased ils fiscaI caacily and
commilmenl lo sociaI oIicy aImosl doubIing in 15 years reaI sociaI er-caila
exendilure. Iour: lhe demograhic lransilion Iaces mosl counlries squareIy vilhin
lhe demograhic bonus vhen combined deendency ralios are Iovesl. IinaIIy
educalion access, comIelion and credenliaIs have imroved in mosl counlries of lhe
region, aIIoving for enhanced oorlunily and increased roduclivily.

Yel lhese five aIIies viII Iose sleam in lhe nexl couIe of decades. Iirsl, Grovlh viII
remain osilive, bul nol al lhe IeveIs seen in lhe asl decade. ImIoymenl grovlh
lhal accomanied economic grovlh faces bollIenecks if lhe lrade-off belveen
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roduclion and reroduclion (vage vork and househoId care and vork) is nol
confronled. Second mosl economies are facing increased infIalionary ressures and
lhe bonus lhal lhe firsl relreal of infIalion rovided lo dislribulionaI oulcomes viII
no Ionger be lhere. ThirdIy, vilh ils resenl lax slruclures and in olher cases
roduclivily IeveIs, sociaI exendilure viII nol be abIe lo increase al lhe rale of lhe
Iasl 15 years. Iourlh: lhe easy hase of lhe demograhic lransilion (vhen
deendency rales are going dovn) is or viII be over in mosl counlries lovards 2025.
Deendency rales viII remain in some cases Iov for a couIe of decades, bul viII no
Ionger diminish year afler year. In olher counlries deendency rales viII slarl lo
increase Ied by lhe grovlh of lhe oIder cohorls. Some counlries in lhe region viII face
lhe Iuroean diIemma bul vilh a Iover GDI er-caila, a veaker fiscaI slale and a
more unequaI sociely. Invesling in younger cohorls, vomen and chiIdren becomes
lhus a necessily and a comIex dislribulionaI chaIIenge given lhe facl lhal lhe share
of lhe Iion goes usuaIIy lo conlribulory yel deficil ridden- ension syslems lhal
moslIy cover lhe formaI vorker and are based on lhe idea of lhe maIe breadvinner
modeI. IinaIIy vhiIe lhe sofl largels of exanded educalion have been achieved
(rimary schooI and exansion of Iover middIe schooI), lhe lough ones remain:
exlended coverage in earIy chiIdhood, comIelion of high schooI, quaIily
imrovemenl, and lrue reduclion of inequaIily of oulcome in Iearning.

Il is in lhis conlexl and lhese chaIIenges lhal lhe ossibiIily of a nev sociaI
cilizenshi based on robusl ubIic goods, exansion of meril goods and universaIily
of enlilIemenls emerges. Yel il is nol enough lhal eIiles are no Ionger abIe lo conlroI
lhe oIilicaI and economic game lhrough slalus encIosure and aulhorilarianism. In
order lo crafl lruIy universaI sociaI oIicies narrov cororalism and reslricled
largeling -and lhe oIilicaI economy lhey suslain- have lo be confronled as veII.
Conlribulory modeIs based on formaI vages and largeled sociaI oIicies based on
need viII nol disaear, bul lhey have lo lake lhe back seal lo a modeI of basic
universaIism vhere access lo quaIily ubIic and coIIeclive goods is lruIy universaI,
and enlilIemenls in lransfers and services are nol deendenl on need nor Iabor
formaIily.

Ior lhis lo haen al Ieasl lhree ma|or changes or Ievers of change have lo be ul in
Iace: i. a nev fiscaI conlracl lhal exands lhe lax base and al lhe same limes
redefines lhe drivers of lhe exansion of sociaI ubIic sending (from subsidies lo
cash lransfer oId age conlribulory modeIs lo vomen and chiId veIfare), ii. The
reforms of slale civiI service and lhe exansion and reforms in heaIlh care, educalion
and care syslems, increasing quaIily, efficiency and equily, and allacking bolh ure
markel orienled modeIs and cororalisl arorialion of lhe sociaI service
machinery, iii. The defense of coIIeclive and ubIic goods. CoIIeclive goods such as
urban lransorl and ubIic saces and ubIic goods such as securily have lo be a
riorily, risking olhervise a conlinuous urban segregalion lhal undermines equaIily
and sociaI cohesion.

If lhis is achieved lhen ouIar-middIe cIass aIIiance can be forged, a dislribulionaI
coaIilion lhal viII in lurn give oIilicaI suorl and economic feasibiIily lo a alh of
roserily and increased equaIily of oorlunily and oulcome. If nol, lhe romise
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viII be shallered, and lhe enduIum belveen, on lhe one hand, faiIed ouIisl, slale
Ied robin hood Iike incororalion allemls and on lhe olher, lechnocralic cIosure
of democracy, and slale bashing viII remain lhe cenlraI and lragic dynamic of lhe
region.

C=*%(,(-$ =)01'*)%, is Senior Researcher al Informalion and SociaI Sludies Cenlre of
Uruguay (CIISU). http://www.ciesu.edu.uy
This aer is based on Dr. IiIgueira's resenlalion al lhe IU-LAC Ioundalion`s
discussion forum Lalin America and lhe Caribbean in lhe conlexl of changes:
Oorlunilies and chaIIenges for lhe IU, vhich look Iace in erIin on lhe 6
lh
of
March 2014.