BRITISH COLUMBIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

PART-TIME STUDIES
OPMT 5751
Quiz 2

19-Mar-14
Overall Quiz 2:

Mark
Question 1
Question 2
Total

Out of
11
12

This Quiz has a maximum score of 23 marks.

Instructions:

1 Save this file as lastname_firstname_studentid.xls in the Quiz 2 file on the sharein directory
2. Only the exam excel file may be open. No other program is allowed to be running at
the time of the exam;
3. Please leave in all steps and formulas;
4. Please clearly label and highlight your answers;
5. Please upload your excel file to ShareIn/OPMT/5751/Greg Hamilton/Quiz2;
6. Please check if your excel file is correctly uploaded with the instructor before you
leave the classroom.
7. if you need more room than that provided, simply open a new tab and direct the reader there by name
8. No text or notes may be used, other than that provided.

RMSE Formula:

=sqrt((sumsq()/count())

e sharein directory
e running at

rect the reader there by name in the space provided (i.e. See "question 1aanswer" tab)

sumsq()/count())

Question 1: Airline Ticket Sales

This question has 4 parts
Month
January
February
March

Year
1995
1995
1995

Tickets
605
647
636

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October

1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998

612
714
765
698
615
588
685
711
664
630
696
670
671
724
787
724
651
589
697
750
705
664
704
691
672
753
787
751
695
643
724
803
705
720
757
707
692
828
827
763
710
673
793

Marks

Out of
11

a) Create a time series chart of the data

insert chart here

Which exponential smoothing method should be used for forecasti

Why?

November
December

1998
1998

852
710

Marks

Out of
3

b) Forecast this Data, for 12 future months.

Use the appropriate smoothing method with

insert chart here

method should be used for forecasting?

output here

Marks

Out of

Marks

Out of

c) optimize your forecast by finding the best

d) Write a short report to summarize your r

Is your optimization result supported by an

Marks
Out of
st this Data, for 12 future months.
3
appropriate smoothing method with an alpha = 0.2 and, if necessary, Beta = 0.4, Gamma = 0.2

output here

ze your forecast by finding the best exponential smoothing coefficents and report out your 12 month optimized forecast.

a short report to summarize your results. Why do your forecasts in B) and C) differ?
ptimization result supported by any characteristics of the airline industry?

h optimized forecast.

Question 2: Forecasting Monthly retail gasoline sales levels

There are 4 parts to this question

Month_Year
Jan-93
Feb-93
Mar-93
Apr-93
May-93
Jun-93
Jul-93
Aug-93
Sep-93
Oct-93
Nov-93
Dec-93
Jan-94
Feb-94
Mar-94
Apr-94
May-94
Jun-94
Jul-94
Aug-94
Sep-94
Oct-94
Nov-94
Dec-94
Jan-95
Feb-95
Mar-95
Apr-95
May-95
Jun-95
Jul-95
Aug-95
Sep-95
Oct-95
Nov-95
Dec-95
Jan-96
Feb-96
Mar-96
Apr-96
May-96
Jun-96

Gasoline_Stations_millions
10,779
10,387
11,314
11,474
12,084
11,988
12,292
12,042
11,293
11,811
11,373
11,335
10,533
10,217
11,306
11,328
11,932
12,240
12,572
13,025
12,183
12,280
11,932
12,123
11,244
10,711
11,949
11,840
12,971
13,201
12,998
13,141
12,223
12,190
11,680
11,932
11,488
11,248
12,454
12,887
14,039
13,642

Marks

Out of
12

a) What type of seasonal pattern is apparent in the data? Provid

b) Deseasonalize this data set using the ratio-to-moving averag

Jul-96
Aug-96
Sep-96
Oct-96
Nov-96
Dec-96
Jan-97
Feb-97
Mar-97
Apr-97
May-97
Jun-97
Jul-97
Aug-97
Sep-97
Oct-97
Nov-97
Dec-97
Jan-98
Feb-98
Mar-98
Apr-98
May-98
Jun-98
Jul-98
Aug-98
Sep-98
Oct-98
Nov-98
Dec-98
Jan-99
Feb-99
Mar-99
Apr-99
May-99
Jun-99
Jul-99
Aug-99
Sep-99
Oct-99
Nov-99
Dec-99
Jan-00
Feb-00
Mar-00
Apr-00
May-00

13,629
13,795
12,724
13,264
12,807
12,990
13,732
12,863
14,240
14,163
14,912
14,786
15,077
15,348
14,547
14,827
13,685
13,901
12,945
11,982
13,088
13,394
14,366
14,412
14,820
14,393
13,505
13,947
12,943
13,404
12,624
11,924
13,700
14,633
15,185
15,289
16,325
16,622
15,938
16,339
15,657
16,737
17,608
18,209
20,721
19,663
21,086

Jun-00
Jul-00
Aug-00
Sep-00
Oct-00
Nov-00
Dec-00
Jan-01
Feb-01
Mar-01
Apr-01
May-01
Jun-01
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04

22,083
22,064
21,894
21,373
21,356
20,485
20,618
19,541
18,486
20,354
21,257
23,435
22,882
21,754
22,338
21,084
20,144
18,166
17,552
17,198
16,385
19,423
20,622
21,702
21,131
22,410
22,556
20,864
21,709
20,375
20,421
20,698
20,349
23,297
22,294
22,749
22,245
23,408
24,338
22,879
23,071
21,405
21,786
22,102
21,816
24,742
25,337

May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04

27,602
27,415
28,248

Marks

Out of

n is apparent in the data? Provide an explanation of why this pattern exists

sing the ratio-to-moving average method. Report the deseasonalized data set.

Marks

Out of
0

c) Using the deseasonalized data, forecast the first 4 months of the next year using the most appr
If necessary assume alpha =0.2, Beta = 0.5 and gamma = 0.3

d) Explain your choice of forecasting method.

How does this forecast compare to a forecast using raw data rather than deseasonalized?

ear using the most appropriate method.

deseasonalized?

Marks

Out of
3

Marks

Out of
1