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Good morning and welcome to The Rundown. A weekend has passed without a new foreign policy crisis or a snowstorm in Washington, DC. Not only that, but Afghans are voting in elections to effect a democratic transfer of power. (Indians are too, but thats not really news anymore.) How can these two pieces of good news get mucked up? Just wait. Best, Your foreign and defense policy studies team

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In the News
South Asia
Defying a campaign of Taliban violence that unleashed 39 suicide bombers in the two months before election day, Afghan voters on Saturday turned out in such high numbers to choose a new president and provincial councils that polling hours were extended nationwide. On Saturday, Afghans voted for their next president amid a host of serious challenges including candidate fraud, a hovering Taliban, and an uncertain future for US involvement. For all its faults and corruption, the current Afghani government has proved durable and is on the verge of a peaceful transfer of power from President Hamid Karzai to an elected successor; that is something that has not happened in Afghanistan for decades. Thomas Donnelly explains in a New York Times Upfront editorial why the war in Afghanistan was worth it. More than 2,300 Americans have been killed in Afghanistan since 2001, many more have been wounded, and billions of dollars have been spent. That is a terrible cost, but the value earned in returnprotecting the US from terrorist attacks, preserving representative government in Afghanistan, and protecting U.S. interests in a volatile regionis priceless. Also watch Donnellys AEI Top Three video for more on the topic. As Indias number-one opposition Bharatiya Janata Party continues to gain momentum, party leader Narendra Modi will be tested in his ability to recover from ethnic violence in his home state and to prove that

he is capable of bringing positive economic reforms to the nation. Sadanand Dhume writes in his most recent Wall Street Journal article, instead of feeling dejected, India's liberals should be quietly satisfied. Even though they may not stop the Gujarat chief minister's rise to national power, they have successfully forced him to shelve his party's most contentious policies, tone down his image as a hardliner and focus instead on economic development. Check out Derek Scissors' AEI Top Three video on three important steps the country must take for economic reform. In Pakistan, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, former president of Pakistan and army chief, was indicted for high treason for abrogating the country's constitution in 2007. The indictment will likely increase the strife between Pakistan's powerful military and relatively new civilian government, the results of which could indicate whether those looking to seriously engage with Pakistan should continue talking to its army or consider shifting the emphasis toward the civilian government. Reza Jan explains for Foreign Policy, Which of the Sharifs gets his way will indicate whether or not the government has the determination to assert itself over the historically dominant military and will signal to the United States whether it needs to adjust its tendency to favortalking primarily to Pakistan's military when it wants to get things done in the region.

Middle East
On Sunday former Central Intelligence Agency director Michael Hayden criticized Secretary of State John Kerry for using jailed Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard as a bargaining chip in Mideast peace negotiations with the Israelis. Danielle Pletka writes for the AEIdeas blog: What could John Kerry be thinking? Bribing the Israelis to advance the peace talks beyond April 29, the arbitrary deadline imposed by Kerry himself? Releasing a convicted spy in order to persuade the Israelis to release convicted terrorists to appease the Palestinians, who themselves are demanding the release of terrorists to return to peace talks? What? This is not even final status, and yet Kerry seems to believe its worth upending the US legal system in order to buy time. But even if it were final status, who could possibly fool themselves into believing that a peace bu ilt on returned spies and released terrorists is sustainable? The bulk of international attention toward Irans military advances focuses on its dual -use nuclear work and its ballistic missile development. Its military industries, however, are more varied. While Iranian small boats have grown more aggressive in the Persian Gulf over the past few years, growing Iranian helicopter capabilities suggest that Iranian capabilities may soon improve in a number of fields. Michael Rubin takes a closer look at Iran's current claim to be mass producing helicopters, making it the third-biggest helicopter power in world. Also be sure to read Rubins take on lran's new bulletproof vests and on Iranian deterrence versus the West.

East Asia
China has cautioned the United States not to interfere in Hong Kong affairs after Vice President Joe Biden met two prominent prodemocracy advocates who have warned of Beijing's tightening control of the territory,

state news agency Xinhua said. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Chair James Bullard just said some interesting things in Hong Kong. Bullard astutely warned Americans not to take US economic leadership for granted. Unfortunately, Derek Scissors writes, he got lost while making the statement. Start with the worthwhile warning (made to the Wall Street Journal), the US will not permanently be the global leader the way things are going. Yes, absolutely irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy are slowly undermining US economic leadership. Who will take Americas place if this continues? The correct answer is no one, not for a long time. Read more on the AEIdeas blog. ICYMI: Michael Auslin reviews "Asias Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific" by Robert D. Kaplan, for National Review.

Europe
The German government is "very worried" about events this weekend in eastern Ukraine, which included the seizure of state buildings by pro-Russian protesters, a spokesman said on Monday. In his book Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (Basic Books, 2013), historian Brendan Simms argues that the struggle for the German heartland shaped the modern world. Today, with the European Union struggling to advance its interests, Germany continues to be an organizing principle in world geopolitics. In his Bradley Lecture on April 7, Simms will explore Berlins role as a decisive player in both the ongoing eurozone crisis and Russian aggression in the former Eastern Bloc. He will also describe the Anglo American model of political union as the model Europe must adopt if it wishes to surmount the grave fiscal and military challenges it faces today.

Latin America
Officials at Venezuela's largest university called on President Nicols Maduro on Friday to help protect students after masked progovernment vigilantes attacked a peaceful gathering on campus and injured seven people. During the last three decades, most of Latin America has benefited from important gains in the consolidation of democratic institutions and the implementation of orthodox economic policies that have tamed hyperinflation, reined in debt, and liberalized trade. Of course, Venezuela, Cuba, and other countries are dramatic exceptions to this regional progress. Roger Noriega's latest Latin American Outlook examines key Latin American governments, such as Brazil and Mexico, and argues that they must adopt economic, fiscal, and energy policies that will maximize job creation, sustainable growth, and energy self-sufficiency. He concludes that the American economy will benefit from more vigor and vision as US policy encourages economic partnerships with Latin America that cultivate a healthy private sector, energy interdependence, and greater competitiveness in a global market. The depths of the Venezuelan crisis have become clear as the nations Catholic bishops denounced the brutality and criminalization of protests by the leftist regime led by President Maduro. Their bold and unequivocal rejection of the regimes totalitarian tendencies underscores the perilous isolation of Maduros Cuban-backed government. Read Noriegas AEIdeas blog to learn more about the Catholic bishops

denouncement of Maduros totalitarian regime.

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