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com/board/

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.
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230026
<bhwang@ustc.edu.cn>

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Pattern

chaos complexity edge of chaos

1+12 emergence

Hopfield
agent

Complexity Adaptive System

network node agent

link

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H.Simon:

Hard Sciences

R.Lewontin


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:
z

z
z
z

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z

http://www.yangcai168.com/board/


http://www.yangcai168.com/board/

http://www.yangcai168.com/board/

http://www.yangcai168.com/board/

1
z

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2
z

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3
z

Levy

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4
z

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5
z

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6
z

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7
z

Bak

Bak

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Minority Game

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z
z

W.B.Arthur:
El Farol Bar
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--

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:
X(t)={xn, x n-1, x n-2, }

x n L

{xn, x n-1, x n-2, }

Best
Predictor
From s

x n+1 >L
Dont go!
x n+1 L
Go!

Challet-Y.C.Zhang (
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Minority Game
z

N, AB

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?
0 wins if x0<x1
1 wins if x1<x0

?Cutoff L~N/2

z
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Minority Game
z

:m

{, b(t-3), b(t-2), b(t-1)}

V = 2

m=2
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t t
s

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(32
runs, 10000 time steps)

z
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Minority Game

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MG

i
p(i)(1-p(i))

pP(p)

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P(p)P(p)

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:2040)
A: L=2.17 5 c0.134
B: k4 L=2.224 c0.15

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N k k=2

15

16

00

01

10

11

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10000

[ 2m, m=2k ]

K3N=999
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K3

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P
z

P0,1
N=(99,315, 999, 3161)K=3

P=0.656, 0.664, 0.669, 0.671

N P Pc0.672

Khttp://www.yangcai168.com/board/
3N=999

Evolutionary
Network MG (N=101, S=1, 16 simulations)
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Evolutionary
Network
MG (N=101, S=2, 16 simulations)

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Yi(t) i t
z t

z ij

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i t
t

z ij

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z ijWij

z iqi

S&P500500
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|q|

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-1.8)

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Thanks for
Attention

Attention

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z Bachelier

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Levy

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Levy
Levy

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1994131997528
t=190821t

(1994-1997)
1

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(1994-1997)

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http://www.yangcai168.com/board/

P(0)
t

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http://www.yangcai168.com/board/

(1994-1997)
1

http://www.yangcai168.com/board/
(1994-1997)

http://www.yangcai168.com/board/
(1994-1997)

(1994-1997)
1

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2001

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