2014 Kentucky Derby Notes

(in order of preference)

PP Name Trainer Jockey ML Pros Cons
What to look for
during the race Final Assessment Fun Fact
The Short List
5 California Chrome Art Sherman Victor Espinoza 5-2
Has the highest avg speed
ratings in this field; has won the
last 4 races; in his last race
(Santa Anita Derby) won 5 1/4
lengths over good competitors
and was slowed down by jockey
at end (i.e. he had plenty of juice
left)
Modest pedigree & sire
was a sprinter; it's been
59 years since Calif bred
horse won Derby
Should be on the lead
the whole way; if not
within a couple of
lengths early on he'll be
in trouble. If he wins,
this could be a classic
gate-to-wire
He will be the one to beat; I think
this colt snaps the 59 year losing
streak for Calif breds
77 year old trainer, Art
Sherman, has never entered a
horse in Derby, but was the
exercise rider to 1955 Derby
winner Swaps
16 Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 8-1
Has been improving nicely in his
career; Has been impressing
people in his pre-Derby
workouts
He's had a problem
switching leads properly
into the stretch and that
can be a deal-breaker in
the Derby.
He'll be just off-the-pace
and he should like that
Solid speed and seems to be peaking
in his form PLUS his workouts have
been fantastic; this is a good bet at a
decent price; If Chrome doesn't
"bring it home," I think Holiday does
Mike Smith opted to ride
Hoppertunity and not Intense
Holiday - that didn't work well
last year for John Velazquez
when he opted for Verrazano
instead of Orb
10 Wildcat Red Jos Garoffalo Luis Saez 15-1
7 starts: 5 1sts & two 2nds - has
never lost by more than a neck
Bred to be a sprinter
He'll be right up there in
the lead; a softer pace
overall and he could
pull it out
A really talented, gritty horse, but I
worry he tires in the last 1/8
A native of Venezuela, trainer
Garoffalo grew up working with
racehorses on a farm owned by
his father. He went to trainer
school and law school,
graduating from both in 1988
6 Samraat Richard Violette Jos Ortiz 15-1
Has never ran a bad race - 6
starts: 5 wins and one 2nd
The Derby's distance -
was beat handily in last
race (Wood) at a 1-1/8
miles (Derby is 1-1/4
miles)
He should be close to
the leading pace early;
probably has a great
shot if he gets a soft
pace, if not, he's in
trouble
I really like this horse, but I think that
distance could be an issue
Irad Ortiz Jr., the rider of Uncle
Sigh, and his brother Jose, who
rides Samraat, will become the
first brothers to ride in the
Derby since Eddie and Sam
Maple in 1984.
Definitely could win, BUT a little Harder to See
12 Dance With Fate Peter Eurton Corey Nakatani 20-1
Has finished 1st, 2nd, and 1st in
his 3 starts this year
He tends to favor turf
and/or synthetic surface
over the natural dirt of
CD; only 3 weeks since
last race
He will running towards
the back of the pack
early; he has a closer
style, the timing of
when to make a move
will be critical
He will do well in career by staying
with turf and poly tracks; hard to see
victory here, although this closer
may be a good pick to use in a
trifecta or superfecta
Peter Eurton has trained
Thoroughbred racehorses since
1989, primarily in Southern
California. Eurton has trained
the winners of nearly 400 races
and $15 million. Never won
Derby
13 Chitu Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 20-1
Solid victory in the Sunland
Derby (last out); 4 races in his
career and seems to be
improving in each one
The 1-1/4 mile Derby
maybe too much for
him
He will be on the pace;
needs a clean trip (and a
little luck)
He's not getting a lot of press; I like
him; I can definitely see him hitting
the board if he can handle the
distance
Baffert & Garcia have had some
nice victories in the past
(Preakness, Kentucky Oaks & 2
Haskells)
20 Wicked Strong James Jerkens Rajiv Maragh 6-1
Clearly the best in his last race
(Wood Memorial) posted 103
speed rating
He's had some real
clunkers this year;
before last race his best
speed was an 89
I see him mid-pack in
the backstretch; he'll
make try with one big
run in the stretch
Two schools of thought: 1) the
Wood showed his true colors and he
will only improve; 2) the Wood was a
fluke. My assessment: don't believe
the hype
The winner of the Wood
Memorial (at Aqueduct) has not
been 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the last
10 years at the Derby
2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)
PP Name Trainer Jockey ML Pros Cons
What to look for
during the race Final Assessment Fun Fact
4 Danza Todd Pletcher Joe Bravo 8-1
Had a very strong Arkansas
Derby (last race) with 104 speed
rating; has looked good in pre-
Derby works
Coming off a BIG race
just 3 weeks ago; AK
Derby won in a
"leisurely pace" (i.e. not
a lot of speed)
He's going to be well off
the pace for most of the
race; he'll need a soft
pace to catch this
crowd, if not, he'll finish
well back in the pack
He's a solid horse coming off a BIG
victory just 3 weeks ago, also some
question as to how strong AK Derby
field was; Hard to see this Closer
closing this race
Named in honor of the actor
Tony Danza, who has embraced
the sudden celebrity of the
horse and cheerfully accepted
an offer from the colts owners,
to attend the Derby.
18 Candy Boy John Sadler Gary Stevens 15-1
Since breaking his Maiden has
never finished out of the money
Was well beaten versus
Calif Chrome and
Hoppertunity in the SA
Derby
He'll probably hang back
to make one run at the
end
Decent speed and a decent closer
PLUS Gary Stevens give him a decent
shot; but still hard to see
Stevens has won the Derby 3
times - the last time in 1997 (on
Silver Charm)
15 Tapiture Steve Asmussen Ricardo Santana 12-1
A talented, fast horse - with a
nice victory in the Southwest
Stakes and close 2nd in the
Rebel
3 weeks ago in the Ark
Derby he ran out of
steam
He'll be just off-the-
pace, setting up for late
run
He has the talent to do this, but he
will need a nice bounce (up) from his
last race; my guess is probably not
This is Ricardo Santana's first
mount in a Kentucky Derby
Probably best only to use as part of an exotic bet (i.e. exacta, trifectas, superfectas, etc.)
1 Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker Rosie Napravnik 20-1
Looked great in last race
(Louisiana Derby); has had 2
100+ speed rated races in 5 race
career
He may have trouble
with a hot pace early,
he's a decent closer but
this may be too much;
pre-Derby work has not
been great
He'll probably settle
into a middle pack
going, but he will need
to save ground in order
to set up a closing run; if
2nd Call is 48+ seconds
he's in a good place
He may have trouble with a hot pace
early, he's a decent closer but this
may be too much; plus being in the 1
position is not good
Rosie Napravnik would be the
first woman jockey to win the
Derby
3 Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa Irad Ortiz, Jr. 30-1
Just missed the Withers (1
length) and the Gotham (a neck)
Did not finish well last
out in the Wood (5th/8
lengths back)
If he breaks well he
should be close to the
pace and will have a
shot
If you forgive his Wood performance,
this horse has speed and could be a
solid contender; if you like to bet
long shots, I'd give him a serious look
Uncle Sigh is owned by Chip
McEwen, who named his racing
stable Wounded Warrior
Stables and donates 10% of his
earnings to wounded vets.
14 Medal Count Dale Romans Robby Albarado 20-1
Has run very nicely in the last 2
races
His lone race on dirt
(Fountain of Youth) was
not great; also raced on
4/5 & 4/12
He's a mid-pack runner
that has closing ability
I think it's too much, too soon and
on the wrong surface; Look
elsewhere
Albarado was the jockey for
Curlin who is the sire for Ride
on Curlin
19 Ride on Curlin Billy Gowan Calvin Borel 15-1
Showed good closing speed in
Ark Derby (last race) getting 2nd
Has never won a Graded
Stakes race; only
winning his Maiden and
a $57K Allowance race
I can see Borel trying to
save ground in the mid-
pack and then try to
make his classic rail trip
at the end
If he wins it'll be because of one
word: BOREL. For me, hard to see
he has the talent to win this joint, let
alone hit the board
Jockey Calvin Borel has three
wins and two thirds the past
seven years in the Derby.
8 General a Rod Mike Maker Joel Rosario 15-1
He's never been out-of-the-
money in any of his 5 starts; just
besting Wildcat Red in Fountain
of Youth
Weakened last race
(Florida Derby) at 1-1/8
miles
He'll move to the front;
he'll need to hang on
for the long haul
A good gutsy horse, but I think the
distance will get the better of him
The name has no relation to
Alex Rodriguez; he's named
after his (former) owner J.
Armando Rodriguez
If you liked Mine That Bird, you'll love...
2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)
PP Name Trainer Jockey ML Pros Cons
What to look for
during the race Final Assessment Fun Fact
17 Commanding Curve Dallas Stewart Shaun Bridgmohan 50-1
Had a decent trip coming in at
3rd in Louisiana Derby (last race
with 98 speed rating)
Took 4 tries to break
Maiden - his only
victory; pre-Derby work
not impressive
He'll be in the back of
the pack with his closing
style, he'll make a bid
Last race was an improvement, so he
could have good race here; I
discounted a similar style horse (and
his current stable mate) last year -
Golden Soul - and paid the price (he
came in 2nd); not a horrible choice
to include in an exotic bet
It's rare for horses who have
not previously won stakes to
win the Derby
9 Vinceremos Todd Pletcher Joe Rocco, Jr. 30-1
Had nice on the rail win at Sam F
Davis Stakes and a good closing
2nd at Tampa Bay Derby
Speed - he has the 2nd
lowest avg speed rating
in the field
Look for Rocco to save
ground early for this
colt to have a chance at
the end
I have a hard time seeing this colt
run down this field; it'll be a real
stretch to see him with the roses
No horse has won the Derby
after finishing worse than
fourth in its prior start since
Iron Liege, who was fifth in the
1957 Derby Trial (Vinceremos
was 14th in the Blue Grass).
2 Harry's Holiday Mike Maker Corey Lanerie 50-1
Run a very close 2nd to We Miss
Artie in the Spiral (2 races back);
won his Maiden at Churchill
Highest career speed
rating was a 95 in a
$60K stakes race at
Tampa Bay
He should be vying for
the lead early on, he not
a classic closer
I think he gets outran
This is Corey Lanerie's first ever
Derby mount
7 We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 50-1
Had a real nice pull out win in
the Spiral Stakes (last out on
polytrack)
Except for his first race,
he has never done well
on natural dirt; his pre-
Derby workouts have
been disappointing
If the pace is hot early, I
see him towards the
back (and never
recovering). He'll need
a perfect trip, a soft
pace and a little luck
(don't we all!)
He's had some bad trips on dirt.
Unless he's another Animal Kingdom,
it is hard to see here; also not
helping, owner quoted as saying,
"someone has to finish 20th. If it's
him, it's him." As Mike Watchmaker
at DRF sarcastically noted, "Wow.
That's encouraging."
Animal Kingdom, also bred to
be a grass horse, used the Spiral
as a successful launching pad to
Derby glory.
11 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert Mike Smith Scratched
Clearly 2nd Best in Santa Anita
Derby to Calif Chrome; Has Solid
Speed and should like the extra
distance; Was impressive in 2
time out in Rebel Stakes
Although looked great
in SA Derby, he was no
match to California
Chrome
If he gets a good break,
he should be just off the
pace early; will need a
clean trip to win; If
Closer is going win here,
he's the one
One of my favorites here; he showed
a lot of talent in Rebel Stakes; I can
see him second to Calif Chrome
Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby
winner who did not race as a 2-
year-old. Hopportunity would
be the second.
21 Pablo Del Monte Wesley Ward Jeffery Sanchez Scratched
Had a nice race finishing 3rd at
the Blue Grass (last race) and 95
speed rating
Best speed rating (95) is
well below avg winning
speed
He will probably be
towards the lead early,
not really classic closer
He was entered as "Also Eligible" and
got in due to Hopportunity scratch,
that being said he'd be one heckva
long shot
Ward achieved a training first in
2009 when he became the first
American based trainer to win
at the Royal Ascot meet in
England.
1st 2nd 3rd Avg 1st 2nd 3rd Avg 1st 2nd 3rd Avg 1st 2nd 3rd Avg
Calif Chrome 103 110 97 106 104 107 93 102 86 87 100 94 98 101 97 101
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 0
Vicar's 101 114 88 104 78 89 94 92 80 81 94 88 86 95 92 95
0 0 0 0 5.5 1.5 1 5.5 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 2
Dance Fate 96 92 101 99 68 73 103 89 87 84 93 88 84 83 99 92
4.75 6.75 0 0 1.5 1 0 0.5 5.5 3 1.5 0 4 4 1 0
Wicked 103 114 86 103 68 83 94 89 85 88 74 80 85 95 85 91
4 4 2 0 8.5 5.75 6 6.5 5.25 8 12 15 6 6 7 7
Samraat 107 118 75 99 87 101 95 99 96 107 87 99 97 109 86 99
2 2 1.5 3.5 1.5 0.5 0 0 0.5 0.5 0 0 1 1 1 1
Danza 89 97 106 104 90 86 93 87 90 93 99 96 90 92 99 96
2 1.5 0 0 1 4 8 7.5 4.5 7 6 0.5 3 4 5 3
Hoppertunity 100 107 89 100 86 95 100 99 74 83 97 90 87 95 95 96
1.75 1.5 5 5.25 0.5 1 0 0 7.25 4.75 8 7 3 2 4 4
Intense 98 110 85 100 77 86 108 99 82 97 84 91 86 98 92 97
1.5 2 3.5 3.5 6 3.25 2 0 6.75 3.5 4 6.25 5 3 3 3
Wildcat 83 91 99 97 102 106 91 100 93 100 92 97 93 99 94 98
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.5 0.5 0 0 1 0 0 0
Miss Artie 110 111 72 93 91 99 63 80 91 101 86 94 97 104 74 89
3.25 2 1.5 0 5.25 3.5 8 17 2 0.5 0 0 4 2 3 6
Ride On 86 92 101 99 86 97 96 98 94 98 76 87 89 96 91 95
3.75 3.75 3.5 4.75 0 0.5 0 1 0 0 5 10 1 1 3 5
Chitu 91 104 96 103 91 95 94 96 95 97 86 89 92 99 92 96
0.5 0 0 0 0.5 0 0 0.5 0.5 1.5 0 0 1 1 0 0
Tapiture 86 95 93 96 84 95 99 99 94 98 96 99 88 96 96 98
3.5 2.25 3.5 7.25 1.75 1.25 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 3
General 81 90 97 95 102 106 91 100 90 97 93 96 91 98 94 97
1 0.5 1 1.5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Medal Count 97 95 94 97 88 94 93 94 95 99 79 89 93 96 89 93
4.25 5 1.5 1.75 3 1.5 0 0 3.5 3.75 6 9.25 4 3 3 4
Candy Boy 102 109 80 96 88 92 98 97 87 96 91 94 92 99 90 96
0.5 0.5 6.5 8.75 2 1.5 0.5 0 4.5 0 2.5 5.75 2 1 3 5
1st 2nd 3rd Avg 1st 2nd 3rd Avg 1st 2nd 3rd Avg 1st 2nd 3rd Avg
Uncle Sigh 102 108 76 94 89 101 94 99 97 108 84 98 96 106 85 97
4.75 7 7.5 8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0 0 0 0.5 1 2 3 3 3
Vinceremos 100 96 40 67 91 90 95 93 92 93 89 92 94 93 75 84
2.5 4.5 16 28 6 6 4 3 0.5 0.5 2.5 0 3 4 8 10
Harry Holiday 100 98 39 67 116 115 68 93 108 105 58 81 108 106 55 80
2.5 4 14 28 0 0 0 0 0.5 1.5 8 9.75 1 2 7 13
Commanding 84 102 91 98 72 84 94 89 79 84 96 91 78 90 94 93
8.5 6.25 7.5 5 8.25 4.25 6.5 8.25 4.5 2 0 0 7 4 5 4
Pablo 105 106 80 95 91 97 85 89 87 91 92 91 94 98 86 92
0 0 0.5 3.5 2.25 2 3 5.25 2.5 3 2.5 3.5 2 2 2 4