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Outlook Q1 2014
A State of Flux
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Saxo Bank A/S
April/May 2014
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Ockhams Razor

Stock Market lags real economy by three months

Interest rates leads real economy by nine months
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The price of higher rates
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Federal Reserve System: Predicted growth
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No more easy money.?
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Forward guidance false?
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Our JABA model sayslow in 2015-Q1
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Our biggest call: Yields will go to new lows..
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Our biggest call: Yields will go to new lows..
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Deflation: Understanding the cycle
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Deflation US: REAL employment flat..
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Global imbalances global balances
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Red Alert 25 Yrs anniversary for Berlin Wall..
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China Busting the USD/CNY carry trade
USD/CNH
Copper
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China LGFV.
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The worlds growth engine is sputtering
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European recovery please definerecovery
Italy
Ireland
Spain
Germany
Euro Zone
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Deflation ECB tells us: Dont worry but
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Germany to flirt with recession ?
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EU Parliament Election.Game changer?
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Japan: Another non-recovery Topix/SP500 ratio
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Japan: Another non-recovery?
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USDJPY in low 90s?
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JPY: longer term weaker
Public
Debt
>200% of
GDP
+
= Stagflation
Source: CIA World Factbook
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EURUSD in 1.2500.
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Will equity finally pay the price..?
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Market Calls..Earnings based projection..
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Will equity finally pay the price..?
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Dr. Silver?
Silver/Gold Ratio
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Thank you!