'The Regime Could Collapse Quickly'

As anti-Chinese protests roil Vietnam, a

domestic pro-democratic opposition is quietly
gathering steam.
BY
STEVE FINCH-MAY 16, 2014
HANOI, Vietnam When journalist Pham Chi Dung quit Vietnam's
Communist Party in Deem!er, he "as so angry he #u!lishe$ his letter o% resignation
on the Internet& One o% the ountry's lea$ing $issi$ents, Pham ause$ the #arty o%
ram#ant orru#tion an$ mono#oli'ing #o"er against the "ishes o% a gro"ing num!er
o% Vietnamese& (Ne)er !e%ore ha)e s#ei%i grou#s an$ #olitial ronies !ene%itte$ so
#ro%oun$ly %rom their oo#eration *"ith the #arty+,( he"rote& Plainlothes agents, he
laims, ha)e "athe$ him e)er sine& (I% I go any"here, t"o o% them %ollo" me,( he
sai$ in a hotel room in Ho Chi ,inh City, Vietnam's eonomi hu! in the humi$ south
o% the ountry& It "as too $angerous to meet at his o%%ie or home, Pham e-#laine$&
.or /0 years, Pham "or1e$ as a mem!er o% the Ho Chi ,inh City seurity !ureau, the
loal #arty-a%%iliate$ #olie %ore, olleting in%ormation on ati)ists, "riters, an$
$issi$ents #erei)e$ to !e regime o##onents& 2ut "hen the authorities %oun$ he ha$
%or years !een seretly "riting artiles ritial o% the #arty %or o)erseas Vietnamese-
language ne"s sites, they im#risone$ him "ithout %ormal harge in 3uly 45/4& 6ine
his release se)en months later, an$ su!sequent sa1ing %rom the seurity !ureau,
Pham has emerge$ as one o% Vietnam's lea$ing regime ritis& He "rote anonymously
!e%ore his arrest7 no" he "rites un$er his o"n name %or outlets li1e the 22C's Vietnam
ser)ie, an$ more #roli%ially than e)er&(2e%ore I !elie)e$ in the #arty,( he sai$& (2ut
a%ter "hat ha##ene$, I %elt that the Communist Party is not %aith%ul to the #eo#le&(
I% )ie"s on the street an$ online are anything to go !y, Pham's hange o% heart is
re%leti)e o% mounting #u!li %rustration "ith the Vietnamese go)ernment& 8onomi
stagnation an$ %ailure to intro$ue greater #olitial %ree$oms ha)e #rom#te$ gro"ing
$issent -- #artiularly online -- threatening the #arty's legitimay& Anti-
China protests in mi$-,ay injure$ at least /49 #eo#le, an$ a#ture$ international
hea$lines& 2ut %or many Vietnamese, it is e-#loitation !y their o"n go)ernment -- not
their northern neigh!or -- that is at the heart o% internal unrest&
The country's poor economic performance is one of the driving forces of
discord. .rom one o% the "orl$'s #oorest ountries a%ter the Vietnam War, the
#artyintroduced eonomi re%orms in /9:0 1no"n as Doi Moi-- (reno)ation( -- an$
!y the /995s, Vietnam's eonomy "as one o% the %astest gro"ing in 6outheast Asia&
2et"een 4550 an$ 4559, the ountry's annual ;DPdou!ed to more than <95 !illion&
=et sine then, the eonomi outloo1 has !een gloomy& >his is #artly $ue to the glo!al
%inanial risis, !ut mostly arising %rom strutural #ro!lems originating %rom the
hy!ri$ a#italist-ommunist system& ;ro"th $ri)en !y easily a)aila!le re$it an$ to#-
$o"n, ine%%iient state-o"ne$ om#anies le$ to rising in%lation -- reahing /:&? #erent
in 45//, the highest in 6outheast Asia& As a result, Vietnamese ha)e seen their
s#en$ing #o"er re$ue$ in reent years as !an1s ha)e trie$ to lear !a$ $e!ts, sai$
8ugenia Vitorino, a Vietnam eonomi analyst at AN@ 2an1&
Aimite$ re%orm e%%orts ha)e %aile$ to jum#start Vietnam's stunte$ eonomy& >he
ountry's ;DP rose just B&C #erent in 45/D, a rate eonomists say remains
too "ea# to #rom#t a %ull reo)ery& All o% Vietnam's $e)elo#ing neigh!ors re#orte$
higher ;DP gro"th in 45/DE Aaos hit : #erent7 China ?&? #erent, an$ Cam!o$ia ?
#erent&
In Oto!er 45/4, un$er #ressure to aount %or the ountry's stagnant gro"th,
Vietnamese Prime ,inister Nguyen >an Dung ma$e a rareadmission o% (%aults( o)er
the struggling eonomy& His mea ul#a "as also, in #art, a res#onse to a s#at o% gra%t
san$als that ha)e emerge$ un$er his "ath&
6ine then, the #arty has !een inreasingly #u!li a!out their e%%orts to su##ress "hat
ontinues to !e "i$es#rea$ orru#tion& As o% No)em!er, Vietnamese ourts ha$ hel$
4?: orru#tion trials in 45/D, aor$ing to a go)ernment report& In the #ast si-
months alone, Vietnam has sentencedat least three !an1ers to $eath on gra%t harges
a%ter they "ere %oun$ to ha)e olleti)ely stolen hun$re$s o% millions o% $ollars %rom
state-o"ne$ om#anies, inlu$ing Vietnam Agri!an1, the ountry's largest ommerial
len$er& 2ut orru#tion ra1$o"ns are a mi-e$ !lessing %or the Communist
PartyE announcing e)er-"i$er #ro!es o% orru#tion has $ra"n greater attention to
gra%t in Vietnam's state-o"ne$ om#anies&
>hese injusties are inreasingly $isillusioning many o% the one-#arty state's 95 million
#eo#le, says Chu Hao, a retire$ $e#uty minister o% siene an$ tehnology an$ among
the most outs#o1en o% Vietnam's %ormer senior o%%iials& (Des#ite go)ernment
attem#ts to rein%ore its authority an$ %oster *%aith in the go)ernment+, its numerous
limitations an$ shortomings remain, #rom#ting #eo#le to !elie)e less an$ reat
more,( he sai$&
In 3anuary 45/D, Hanoi in)ite$ the #u!li to gi)e %ee$!a1 on #ro#ose$ amen$ments
to Vietnam's onstitution -- the %irst time, aor$ing to a num!er o% $issi$ents an$
%ormer #arty o%%iials, it has onsulte$ its iti'ens on #ro#ose$ #olitial hanges& In
res#onse, tens o% thousan$s o% high-ran1ing #arty mem!ers, army o%%iials,
intelletuals, #riests, stu$ents, teahers, an$ la"yers signed online #etitions alling
%or a multi-#arty system -- a #ro#osal quietly ignore$ "hen Vietnam's
#arliament passed only minor onstitutional hanges in No)em!er&
During this #erio$, the go)ernment also ram#e$ u# e%%orts to silene its ritisE >he
num!er o% $issi$ents on)ite$ o% su!)ersion an$ other #olitially-moti)ate$ harges
inrease$ %rom aroun$ C5 in 45/4 to at least 0D in 45/D according to Human Fights
Wath& Although the #ae o% arrests has slo"e$ in reent months, aor$ing to a
Western $i#lomat !ase$ in Vietnam "ho as1e$ to s#ea1 anonymously, the
go)ernment's $etrators remain at ris1&
>"o !loggers "ere sentenced to #rison in ,arh %or ritii'ing the go)ernment un$er
Artile 4B:, one o% a num!er o% ne" $ireti)es #asse$ o)er the #ast t"o years $esigne$
to urtail ritiism on the "e!& >he me$ia remains largely ontrolle$ !y the state, yet
"ithout an e%%eti)e %ire"all li1e neigh!oring China, the #arty has struggle$ to #ut a li$
on online $issent& >he num!er o% .ae!oo1 users in Vietnam c!imed %rom a!out /5
million in De& 45/4 to 24 mi!!ion in A#ril 45/C, as iti'ens easily irum)ente$
la1luster state %iltering&
,ean"hile, a ha#ha'ar$ e%%ort !y the state to ra1$o"n on online $issent has le%t
many Vietnamese inreasingly em!ol$ene$ an$ angry& Nguyen >hu >rang, a 45-year-
ol$ Hanoi !arista sai$ she has !een questione$ an$ harasse$ !y state agents o)er her
ritial #osts on #olitis an$ Vietnamese soiety& 2ut $es#ite "arnings %rom her
#arents that she oul$ en$ u# in jail, Nguyen sai$ she "oul$ not 1ee# quiet&
(Demoray annot !e esta!lishe$ imme$iately,( she sai$ $uring a !rea1 %rom "or1ing
at an u#sale Hanoi a%G& (It requires a long-term #roess an$ #eo#le are the 1ey
%ator&(
Nguyen says she has %rien$s e)en younger than her that are airing their ritiques
online -- a ne" generation o% $issenting )oies that ha)e emerge$ "ith the #o#ularity
o% soial net"or1ing #lat%orms li1e .ae!oo1& Although these younger "e!-!ase$
ati)ists an$ more high-#ro%ile regime o##onents li1e Pham say they #lan to
oor$inate "hat a##ears to !e a gro"ing mo)ement, the state still %aes little in the
"ay o% organi'e$ o##osition&
Diret #olitial ation hallenging the one-#arty status quo remains all !ut im#ossi!le&
Only $.4 percent o% re#resentati)es in Vietnam's uniameral #arliament are
in$e#en$ent o% the #arty& An$ "hile their #resene has allo"e$ greater $e!ate in ho"
the ountry is run in reent years, ultimate $eision-ma1ing remains an o#aque
#roess at the highest ehelons o% the #arty& >he )etting #roess to e)en get on the
!allot remains stritly ontrolle$ !y the entral go)ernment& Nguyen Canh 2inh, C8O
o% #ri)ate Hanoi-!ase$ #u!lishing house Al#ha 2oo1s, "as among a han$%ul o%
Vietnamese "ho trie$ to run as in$e#en$ents in the last #arliamentary eletions, in
45//& A #ragmati an$ outs#o1en re%ormer, Nguyen Canh 2inh is har$ly one o% the
regime's most aggressi)e ritis& =et still, he says, the #arty rejete$ his an$i$ay,
re%using to a##ro)e his a##liation to run on the !allot, "ithout gi)ing a reason&
Nguyen Canh 2inh %a)ors "hat he alls a (mi$$le "ay( %or Vietnam -- a non-
on%rontational a##roah& He is starting a ne" e$uational #rogram outsi$e the state
system to teah the ountry's %uture elites ho" to lea$, an$ has so %ar #rinte$ hun$re$s
o% Vietnamese translations o% !oo1s on Western #olitis, #hiloso#hy an$ ulture& He
"ants slo", stea$y hange -- not a Vietnamese 6#ring& (We $on't ha)e goo$ 1no"le$ge
or un$erstan$ %ully the other si$e o% $emoray,( he sai$& (We see "hat's ha##ening
"ith rises in >hailan$ an$ the H1raine&(
Fetire$ $e#uty minister Chu, ho"e)er, is #essimisti& Although the go)ernment is
hearing more a!out ho" or$inary Vietnamese %eel, it's not really listening, he says, an$
that oul$ !e the #arty's un$oing& (>hey ha)e t"o hoiesE get loser to #eo#le's li)es
an$ !e more $emorati& Or, to ontinue the ra1$o"n an$ la1 $emoray,( he sai$&
(I% the latter is hosen, the regime oul$ olla#se qui1ly&(