Australia GDP 1Q2014

by Eduardo Petazze
In the Jan/Mar 2014 quarter, Australia's GDP grew 3.59% Y/Y (+1.11% Q/Q), from +2.76% Y/Y (+0.78% Q/Q) in Sep/Dec 2013 quarter
Excluding mining, in the 1st. calendar quarter 2014 GDP grew by 2.48% Y/Y (+0.27% Q/Q), from a growth of 2.35% Y/Y (+0.76% Q/Q) in
the last quarter of 2013. Manufacturing GVA fell 3.67% Y/Y (-3.06% Q/Q). By definition a case of Dutch disease
The ABS release the GDP data for the January / March 2014 quarter
GDP, March quarter 2014 pdf, 84 pages
The following is a summary

Seasonally adjusted data

Chain volume, SA
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A)
Mining (B)
Manufacturing (C)
Electricity, gas, water and waste services (D)
Construction (E)
Wholesale trade (F)
Retail trade (G)
Accommodation and food services (H)
Transport, postal and warehousing (I)
Information media and telecommunications (J)
Financial and insurance services (K)
Rental, hiring and real estate services (L)
Professional, scientific and technical services (M)
Administrative and support services (N)
Public administration and safety (O)
Education and training (P)
Health care and social assistance (Q)
Arts and recreation services (R)
Other services (S)
Ownership of dwellings
GVA
Taxes less subsidies on products
Statistical discrepancy (P)
GDP
Chain volume, SA
General government Final consumption expenditure
Households Final consumption expenditure
All sectors Gross fixed capital formation
Changes in inventories
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Statistical discrepancy (E)
GDP
Last data
Q/Q
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A)
Mining (B)
Manufacturing (C)
Electricity, gas, water and waste services (D)
Construction (E)
Wholesale trade (F)
Retail trade (G)
Accommodation and food services (H)
Transport, postal and warehousing (I)
Information media and telecommunications (J)
Financial and insurance services (K)
Rental, hiring and real estate services (L)
Professional, scientific and technical services (M)
Administrative and support services (N)
Public administration and safety (O)
Education and training (P)
Health care and social assistance (Q)
Arts and recreation services (R)
Other services (S)
Ownership of dwellings
GVA
Taxes less subsidies on products
GDP
Q/Q
General government Final consumption expenditure
Households Final consumption expenditure
All sectors Gross fixed capital formation
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
GDP
Last data

2012Q3
7,996
36,518
26,103
9,571
29,027
16,167
16,939
8,843
18,105
10,355
29,780
9,604
24,648
11,098
19,123
16,871
23,602
2,928
6,621
30,478
354,377
23,852
531
378,760
2012Q3
66,919
202,609
107,379
1,964
82,266
80,718
-1,659
378,760

2012Q4
7,857
37,157
26,133
9,462
29,270
16,201
16,990
8,700
18,202
10,262
30,244
9,633
25,003
11,094
19,578
16,948
24,071
3,046
6,595
30,682
357,128
23,487
-181
380,434
2012Q4
66,464
203,537
108,515
572
82,839
81,414
-78
380,434

2013Q1
8,186
37,677
25,882
9,344
28,373
16,003
17,178
8,621
18,506
10,272
30,411
9,785
25,231
11,131
19,943
17,032
24,323
3,032
6,594
30,885
358,408
23,643
-597
381,454
2013Q1
67,175
204,114
105,792
-184
83,413
78,711
-144
381,454

2013Q2
8,754
38,346
25,595
9,265
28,958
16,221
17,177
8,677
18,184
10,335
31,058
9,824
25,073
11,366
20,162
17,124
24,671
3,069
6,723
31,085
361,666
23,389
-107
384,948
2013Q2
67,326
205,599
106,628
177
86,108
81,131
240
384,948

2013Q3
8,656
39,210
25,512
9,118
29,195
15,733
17,270
8,558
18,462
10,322
31,532
9,835
25,089
11,380
20,358
17,222
24,922
3,174
6,949
31,278
363,775
23,527
270
387,572
2013Q3
67,927
207,078
106,096
-1,440
87,004
78,636
-456
387,572

2013Q4
8,623
39,595
25,736
9,199
29,632
15,813
17,379
8,469
18,276
10,267
32,012
10,287
24,686
11,414
20,512
17,313
25,178
3,117
6,698
31,469
365,674
23,614
1,312
390,600
2013Q4
68,186
208,658
104,916
-209
87,936
78,133
-755
390,600

2014Q1
8,483
42,988
24,948
9,139
30,509
15,752
17,495
8,680
17,882
10,367
32,909
10,492
24,167
11,445
20,699
17,407
25,574
3,149
6,622
31,662
370,370
23,709
850
394,929
2014Q1
68,422
209,729
104,913
-2,690
92,121
77,003
-563
394,929

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1

-4.83% -1.74%
4.19%
6.94% -1.12% -0.38% -1.62%
6.08%
1.75%
1.40%
1.78%
2.25%
0.98%
8.57%
2.16%
0.11% -0.96% -1.11% -0.32%
0.88% -3.06%
-0.15% -1.14% -1.25% -0.85% -1.59%
0.89% -0.65%
-0.94%
0.84% -3.06%
2.06%
0.82%
1.50%
2.96%
1.38%
0.21% -1.22%
1.36% -3.01%
0.51% -0.39%
-0.29%
0.30%
1.11% -0.01%
0.54%
0.63%
0.67%
1.69% -1.62% -0.91%
0.65% -1.37% -1.04%
2.49%
-1.02%
0.54%
1.67% -1.74%
1.53% -1.01% -2.16%
-1.16% -0.90%
0.10%
0.61% -0.13% -0.53%
0.97%
0.63%
1.56%
0.55%
2.13%
1.53%
1.52%
2.80%
-0.54%
0.30%
1.58%
0.40%
0.11%
4.60%
1.99%
-1.94%
1.44%
0.91% -0.63%
0.06% -1.61% -2.10%
1.84% -0.04%
0.33%
2.11%
0.12%
0.30%
0.27%
-0.90%
2.38%
1.86%
1.10%
0.97%
0.76%
0.91%
0.33%
0.46%
0.50%
0.54%
0.57%
0.53%
0.54%
2.28%
1.99%
1.05%
1.43%
1.02%
1.03%
1.57%
-0.20%
4.03% -0.46%
1.22%
3.42% -1.80%
1.03%
-2.26% -0.39% -0.02%
1.96%
3.36% -3.61% -1.13%
0.67%
0.67%
0.66%
0.65%
0.62%
0.61%
0.61%
0.63%
0.78%
0.36%
0.91%
0.58%
0.52%
1.28%
2.00% -1.53%
0.66% -1.07%
0.59%
0.37%
0.40%
0.73%
0.44%
0.27%
0.92%
0.68%
0.78%
1.11%
2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1
-0.90% -0.68%
1.07%
0.22%
0.89%
0.38%
0.35%
0.33%
0.46%
0.28%
0.73%
0.72%
0.76%
0.51%
-0.45%
1.06% -2.51%
0.79% -0.50% -1.11% -0.00%
2.26%
0.70%
0.69%
3.23%
1.04%
1.07%
4.76%
0.06%
0.86% -3.32%
3.07% -3.08% -0.64% -1.45%
0.73%
0.44%
0.27%
0.92%
0.68%
0.78%
1.11%

Gross data
Chain volume, NSA
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A)
Mining (B)
Manufacturing (C)
Electricity, gas, water and waste services (D)
Construction (E)
Wholesale trade (F)
Retail trade (G)
Accommodation and food services (H)
Transport, postal and warehousing (I)
Information media and telecommunications (J)
Financial and insurance services (K)
Rental, hiring and real estate services (L)
Professional, scientific and technical services (M)
Administrative and support services (N)
Public administration and safety (O)
Education and training (P)
Health care and social assistance (Q)
Arts and recreation services (R)
Other services (S)
Ownership of dwellings
GVA
Taxes less subsidies on products
Statistical discrepancy (P)
GDP
Chain volume, NSA
General government Final consumption expenditure
Households Final consumption expenditure
All sectors Gross fixed capital formation
Changes in inventories
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Statistical discrepancy (E)
GDP
Last data
Y/Y
Agriculture, forestry and fishing (A)
Mining (B)
Manufacturing (C)
Electricity, gas, water and waste services (D)
Construction (E)
Wholesale trade (F)
Retail trade (G)
Accommodation and food services (H)
Transport, postal and warehousing (I)
Information media and telecommunications (J)
Financial and insurance services (K)
Rental, hiring and real estate services (L)
Professional, scientific and technical services (M)
Administrative and support services (N)
Public administration and safety (O)
Education and training (P)
Health care and social assistance (Q)
Arts and recreation services (R)
Other services (S)
Ownership of dwellings
GVA
Taxes less subsidies on products
GDP
Y/Y
General government Final consumption expenditure
Households Final consumption expenditure
All sectors Gross fixed capital formation
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
GDP
Last data

2012Q3
5,786
37,251
26,712
9,707
29,563
16,344
16,554
8,858
18,222
10,261
29,617
9,635
24,845
11,074
19,079
16,871
23,769
2,924
6,722
30,478
354,274
23,855
472
378,601
2012Q3
66,288
202,269
106,619
2,931
82,953
83,040
581
378,601

2012Q4
11,213
38,197
27,032
9,280
30,742
16,775
18,578
9,188
18,910
10,468
30,728
9,917
26,254
11,505
19,434
16,948
24,228
3,114
6,677
30,682
369,869
25,008
361
395,238
2012Q4
66,811
211,509
114,336
2,315
85,153
85,154
268
395,238

2013Q1
7,719
35,106
24,524
9,425
25,995
15,291
16,536
8,453
17,811
9,937
29,843
9,512
23,283
10,880
19,929
17,032
23,985
2,978
6,408
30,885
345,530
22,680
-1,757
366,453
2013Q1
66,072
198,654
96,411
-722
79,128
74,373
1,283
366,453

2013Q2
8,076
39,145
25,445
9,230
29,329
16,182
16,615
8,343
18,055
10,557
31,305
9,782
25,574
11,229
20,364
17,124
24,685
3,058
6,726
31,085
361,906
22,828
577
385,312
2013Q2
68,713
203,426
110,948
-2,013
87,430
79,404
-3,789
385,312

2013Q3
6,099
39,951
26,071
9,253
29,789
15,910
16,935
8,578
18,562
10,254
31,355
9,843
25,255
11,347
20,319
17,222
25,108
3,174
7,054
31,278
363,356
23,544
466
387,366
2013Q3
67,290
206,672
105,796
-450
87,927
81,607
1,738
387,366

2013Q4
12,616
40,699
26,643
9,015
31,109
16,367
19,116
8,936
18,987
10,554
32,534
10,591
25,886
11,841
20,410
17,313
25,333
3,187
6,767
31,469
379,374
25,126
1,631
406,131
2013Q4
68,536
216,831
109,954
1,463
90,717
81,753
383
406,131

2014Q1
7,995
40,049
23,624
9,190
27,958
15,043
16,895
8,508
17,185
10,121
32,284
10,213
22,324
11,188
20,963
17,407
25,360
3,096
6,418
31,662
357,481
22,762
-644
379,598
2014Q1
67,314
204,330
95,763
-3,267
87,256
72,777
979
379,598

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1

1.08% -5.83% -6.40%
2.92%
5.41% 12.51%
3.58%
12.48% 11.11% 11.31% 11.57%
7.25%
6.55% 14.08%
-2.10% -0.54% -1.92%
0.08% -2.40% -1.44% -3.67%
1.16%
0.31% -1.65% -3.63% -4.68% -2.86% -2.49%
2.23%
3.94% -2.22% -1.27%
0.76%
1.19%
7.55%
5.89%
6.89%
3.49%
1.75% -2.66% -2.43% -1.62%
2.64%
1.84%
2.21%
1.75%
2.30%
2.90%
2.17%
-0.64%
0.11% -0.21% -0.16% -3.16% -2.74%
0.65%
4.34%
3.58%
3.26% -0.36%
1.87%
0.41% -3.51%
-2.09% -3.25% -2.21% -1.02% -0.07%
0.82%
1.85%
2.13%
3.24%
2.61%
5.02%
5.87%
5.88%
8.18%
3.57%
3.54%
3.44%
2.04%
2.16%
6.80%
7.37%
3.13%
5.68%
2.46% -0.28%
1.65% -1.40% -4.12%
7.46%
5.29%
3.20%
4.24%
2.47%
2.92%
2.83%
-0.49% -0.79%
1.42%
5.88%
6.50%
5.02%
5.19%
1.76%
1.69%
1.71%
1.83%
2.08%
2.15%
2.20%
4.91%
6.59%
6.69%
7.46%
5.63%
4.56%
5.73%
-2.21%
0.87%
4.27%
4.51%
8.55%
2.34%
3.96%
-2.57% -6.43% -7.65% -0.91%
4.94%
1.35%
0.16%
2.06%
2.39%
2.60%
2.67%
2.62%
2.57%
2.52%
3.05%
3.09%
2.24%
2.78%
2.56%
2.57%
3.46%
1.80%
0.87%
1.40% -0.03% -1.30%
0.47%
0.36%
3.44%
2.70%
2.11%
2.38%
2.32%
2.76%
3.59%
2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1
2.10%
0.94%
0.48% -0.26%
1.51%
2.58%
1.88%
2.50%
2.37%
1.56%
1.93%
2.18%
2.52%
2.86%
5.28%
6.44%
0.21% -1.61% -0.77% -3.83% -0.67%
5.26%
4.89%
6.41%
7.56%
6.00%
6.53% 10.27%
2.50%
4.03% -3.50%
0.80% -1.73% -3.99% -2.15%
3.44%
2.70%
2.11%
2.38%
2.32%
2.76%
3.59%

Also see:
Australian PSI: Services sector edges towards growth in May pdf, 2 pages
The RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.5%
Roy Morgan monthly employment estimates - Australian Unemployment down 0.7% to 9.7% in May
Westpac - Melbourne Institute Small Business Index indicates sustained positivity and performance pdf, 2 pages
Melbourne Institute Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends pdf, 9 pages

Balance of Payments
The current account deficit, seasonally adjusted, fell $6,034m (52%) to $5,672m in the March quarter 2014
The ABS release the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, of Australia for March quarter 2014
The following summary shows the evolution of transactions in goods and services and our estimate for fiscal year 2013/2014 and 2014/2015.

Exports
75,396
74,532
69,124
78,269
83,104
82,581
71,208
78,745
75,132
75,351
72,213
79,031
82,539
84,756
83,718
87,693
88,950
91,649
89,488
97,322

2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
Last data
Own estimate

Current, NSA
Y/Y
Imports
27.10% -71,606
24.55% -72,670
16.98% -67,378
5.91% -71,694
10.22% -79,850
10.80% -82,501
3.01% -76,490
0.61% -79,869
-9.59% -82,580
-8.76% -85,087
1.41% -74,557
0.36% -79,534
9.86% -87,317
12.48% -87,271
15.93% -79,914
10.96% -82,539
7.77% -89,434
8.13% -90,754
6.89% -82,772
10.98% -84,890

Y/Y
9.90%
7.23%
5.78%
5.23%
11.51%
13.53%
13.52%
11.40%
3.42%
3.13%
-2.53%
-0.42%
5.74%
2.57%
7.19%
3.78%
2.42%
3.99%
3.58%
2.85%

Balance of Payments Goods

Constant, NSA
Exports
Y/Y
Imports
77,682 4.76% -70,185
79,129 4.07% -74,398
69,059 -3.04% -68,378
75,483 -3.25% -73,046
78,806 1.45% -81,012
81,182 2.59% -81,858
74,362 7.68% -77,070
81,288 7.69% -78,770
82,953 5.26% -83,040
85,153 4.89% -85,154
79,128 6.41% -74,373
87,430 7.56% -79,404
87,927 6.00% -81,607
90,717 6.53% -81,753
87,256 10.27% -72,777
94,233 7.78% -76,258
94,842 7.86% -80,520
97,106 7.04% -80,603
93,039 6.63% -71,941
101,684 7.91% -73,433

and Services Trade millions AUD

Constant, SA
Y/Y
Exports
Q/Q
Imports
14.15% 75,796 -1.64% -67,951
10.48% 77,356 2.06% -70,799
7.54% 73,325 -5.21% -72,409
8.94% 74,877 2.12% -74,847
15.43% 77,732 3.81% -78,306
10.03% 79,619 2.43% -78,796
12.71% 77,842 -2.23% -80,940
7.84% 80,445 3.34% -80,669
2.50% 82,266 2.26% -80,718
4.03% 82,839 0.70% -81,414
-3.50% 83,413 0.69% -78,711
0.80% 86,108 3.23% -81,131
-1.73% 87,004 1.04% -78,636
-3.99% 87,936 1.07% -78,133
-2.15% 92,121 4.76% -77,003
-3.96% 93,072 1.03% -78,623
-1.33% 94,024 1.02% -77,833
-1.41% 95,657 1.74% -76,929
-1.15% 98,080 2.53% -75,523
-3.70% 98,909 0.85% -76,213

Price
Q/Q
Exports
-1.48%
97.1
4.19%
94.2
2.27%
100.1
3.37%
103.7
4.62%
105.5
0.63%
101.7
2.72%
95.8
-0.33%
96.9
0.06%
90.6
0.86%
88.5
-3.32%
91.3
3.07%
90.4
-3.08%
93.9
-0.64%
93.4
-1.45%
95.9
2.10%
93.1
-1.00%
93.8
-1.16%
94.4
-1.83%
96.2
0.91%
95.7

index 2011/12=100.0
Y/Y
Imports
Y/Y
21.33%
102.0 -3.72%
19.68%
97.7 -2.94%
20.64%
98.5 -1.64%
9.47%
98.1 -3.41%
8.65%
98.6 -3.39%
8.00%
100.8
3.18%
-4.33%
99.2
0.72%
-6.58%
101.4
3.31%
-14.11%
99.4
0.89%
-13.01%
99.9 -0.86%
-4.70%
100.2
1.01%
-6.69%
100.2 -1.21%
3.64%
107.0
7.59%
5.58%
106.7
6.83%
5.13%
109.8
9.54%
2.95%
108.2
8.06%
-0.09%
111.1
3.81%
1.02%
112.6
5.47%
0.25%
115.1
4.78%
2.85%
115.6
6.81%