GCN Open Play Rating System

This document contains a proposal for the GCN Open Play rating system based on the ELO
system designed to rate players in chess.
ELO System Mathematical Details
Performance can't be measured absolutely, it can only be inferred from ins and losses. !atings
therefore ha"e meaning only relati"e to other ratings. #oth the a"erage and the spread of ratings
can be arbitrarily chosen. Elo suggested scaling ratings so that a difference of $%% rating points
ould mean that the stronger player has an e&pected score of appro&imately %.'(, and the )*C+
initially aimed for an a"erage club player to ha"e a rating of ,(%%.
- player's e&pected score is his probability of inning plus half his probability of draing. Thus an
e&pected score of %.'( could represent a '(. chance of innning, $(. chance of losing, and
%. chance of draing. On the other e&treme it could represent a (%. chance of inning, %.
chance of losing, and (%. chance of draing. The probability of draing, as opposed to ha"ing a
decisi"e result, is not specified in the ELO system. /nstead a dra is considered half a in and
half a loss.
/f Player - has true strength RA and Player # has true strength RB, the e&act formula 0using the
logistic cur"e1 for the e&pected score of Player - is
400
10 1
1
A B
R R A
E

+
=

*imilarly the e&pected score for Player # is
400
10 1
1
B A
R R B
E

+
=
Note that EA 2 EB 3 ,. /n practice, since the true strength of each player is un4non, the e&pected
scores are calculated using the player's current ratings.
5hen a player's actual tournament scores e&ceed his e&pected scores, the ELO system ta4es
this as e"idence that that player's rating is too lo, and needs to be ad6usted upard. *imilarly
hen a player's actual tournament scores fall short of his e&pected scores, that player's rating is
ad6usted donard. Elo's original suggestion, hich is still idely used, as a simple linear
ad6ustment proportional to the amount by hich a player outperformed or underperformed his
e&pected score. The ma&imum possible ad6ustment per game 0sometimes called the 78"alue1
as set at 73,9 for masters and 73:$ for ea4er players.
*upposing Player - as e&pected to score EA points but actually scored SA points. The formula
for updating his rating is
) (
A A A A
E S K R R + =
This update can be performed after each game or each tournament, or after any suitable rating
period. -n e&ample may help clarify. *uppose Player - has a rating of ,9,:, and plays in a fi"e8
round tournament. ;e loses to a player rated ,9%<, dras ith a player rated ,='', defeats a
player rated ,:>>, defeats a player rated ,(>9, and loses to a player rated ,'$%. ;is actual score
is 0% 2 %.( 2 , 2 , 2 %1 3 $.(. ;is e&pected score, calculated according the formula abo"e, as
0%.(%9 2 %.9>9 2 %.'>( 2 %.(:< 2 %.:(,1 3 $.>9'. Therefore his ne rating is 0,9,: 2 :$?0$.( 8
$.>9'11 3 ,9%,.
Note that hile to ins, to losses, and one dra may seem li4e a par score, it is orse than
e&pected for Player - because his opponents ere loer rated on a"erage. Therefore he is
slightly penali@ed. /f he had scored to ins, one loss, and to dras, for a total score of three
points, that ould ha"e been slightly better than e&pected, and his ne rating ould ha"e been
0,9,: 2 :$?0: 8 $.>9'11 3 ,9,'.
Why Use the EOL System?
There are a number of reasons for using the EOL system for Open Play. The system is
established as a fair means of rating a playerAs s4ill, hen a high rated player beats a lo rated
player they score less points than if they had played another high rated player. The system lends
itself ell to trac4ing the progress of groups of indi"iduals as the mean "alue of all the ratings in
the league is the starting "alue of an indi"idual. This ill mean that if a clubAs rating is eBual to the
mean of the rating of its members, it ill remain on the starting "alue until its members start to
play the members of other clubs, regardless of internal results or number of members. Ne
players are introduced at the mid8point of the league, they donAt start at the bottom.
Using the EOL System for Open Play
The EOL system can be used for the GCN open play ith "ery fe modifications. The starting
"alue of ,(%% and difference of $%% for a '(. chance of inning are arbitrary "alues, but are ell
established in other systems. The only "alue that may "ary from the norm is the use of the 78
"alue. The 78"alue can be used to eight games, games reported ith a higher 78"alue cause a
greater change in ratings. The 78"alue can be set based on the si@e of the game, for a small
game the 78"alue can be ,%, for a medium game the 78"alue can be $( and for a large game the
78"alue can be =%. The definition of small, medium and large games can be system dependant.
o! it Wor"s
- record of all players, clubs and results ill be stored in a database. 5hen recording a ne
result the rating of the players in"ol"ed in the game ill be recalculated and stored. - record of all
results is 4ept purely for reference and is not used in the calculation of ratings. !atings can also
be calculated and stored for clubs, areas and e"en factions 0armies, teams, gangs, etc1.
-ll results ill be entered by CtrustedD indi"iduals, called archi"ists. There must be at least one
archi"ist per club. Once a game has been played a simple record card, recording the player
names and /Es, factions, system, si@e and result is gi"en to an archi"ist for entry into the
database, through the eb.
Players must register to ta4e partF they can either register themsel"es, or be registered by their
archi"ist. !egistration is done in $ parts, submission and confirmation.
- player ho ishes to register submits for registration and an archi"ist then confirms their
registration. Euring submission a player must choose hich club they represent and they are
assigned a pro"isional /E. The player must then inform one of the archi"ists at their club of their
pro"isional /E. The archi"ist can then confirm the registration process using the pro"isional /E.
Once registered, the player is sent an email confirming their /E and any other information.
-n archi"ist can register a player, simply by supplying the playerAs details.
Players can access the eb site to "ie the position of themsel"es, their club and others in the
league.
#$%al&es Use'
The proposed 78Galues for the three primary game systems ill be as described in the table
belo.
Game *ystem Name Eescription 78Galue
5arhammer +antasy #order Patrol %8(%% ,%
5arhammer +antasy *mall (%,8,%%% $%
5arhammer +antasy Hedium ,%%,8$%%% pts $(
5arhammer +antasy Large $%%,8=%%% pts :%
5arhammer +antasy Epic =%%,2 pts =%
5arhammer =%4 #order Patrol %8=%% ,%
5arhammer =%4 *mall =%,8,%%% $%
5arhammer =%4 Hedium ,%%,8$%%% pts $(
5arhammer =%4 Large $%%,8:(%% pts :%
5arhammer =%4 Epic :(%,2 pts =%
The Lord of the !ings Published *cenario ,%
The Lord of the !ings 5ar Party $%
The Lord of the !ings *mall (%,8,%%% pts $(
The Lord of the !ings Hedium ,%%,8$%%% pts :%
The Lord of the !ings Large $%%,2 pts =%
#lood bol ,%
Ereadball ,%
+lames of ar
Eead @one ,%
infinity ,%