Justin Yaquinto

Frinq Life Unlimited

Procedures Outlined for a Global Safe Space:
A Policy for Discourse
n !""# Jo$an %oc&strom' alon( )it$ a (roup of aut$ors submitted a paper to Nature' )$ic$ proposed a
frame)or& for planetary limits in order to $i($li($t )$at t$ey belie*e is a safe operatin( space for $umanity on
t$e (lobe +,-. n t$is paper t$ey described o*erarc$in( planetary limits and issues' yet t$ey did not reac$ a
decisi*e solution for t$e problems t$at )e are currently facin(. /oreo*er it did not focus on social or ecolo(ical
nic$es0 t$ese issues could furt$er entan(le an already stressed planet. n order to qualify and delineate proposed
tra1ectories )it$in social issues in de*eloped and ne)ly de*elopin( countries' /ic$ael D. Gerst' alon( )it$ Paul
D. %as&in' and Jo$an %oc&strom set out to distill se*eral separate inquiries. 2$eir paper' )$ic$ )as publis$ed in
late !",3 +!-' up$eld pre*ious e4amples of $uman impact +3-' )$ile unpac&in( se*eral separate ideas in order to
for(e t$em into one runnel of inquiry. 5y elaboratin( on scenario analysis' planetary boundaries' and tar(ets for
$uman de*elopment +!-' t$in& t$e aut$ors are attemptin( to close some of t$e (aps in t$e pre*ious literature.
2$ey do t$is )$ile e4poundin( on social implications for a (lobali6ed mar&et' and reco(ni6in( t$at cooperation
on an international scale is readily needed. n t$is essay )ill describe some of t$eir scenario met$ods' results'
and s$o) some of t$e &ey players t$ey are )or&in( )it$ in order to support a notion t$at t$ey are creatin( a
discourse community.
5y combinin( scenario analysis' planetary boundaries' and tar(ets for $uman de*elopment' t$e aut$ors
create an infrastructure for t$eir forecasts and ris& assessments. n t$e analysis' t$ey use no*el nomenclature to
describe t$ree possible scenarios: 7onventional Development, Policy Reform, and Great Transition. 2$e *aried
conditions ended )it$ conflictin( results0 t$is is li&ely in order to pro*ide a clearer picture of t$e multiple
directions )e mi($t face in t$e future. 7onventional Development represents a not$in( is done scenario in re(ard
to curbin( current trends' t$erefore it up$olds t$e )orld8s problematic state +,'!-. 2$e Great Transition is a
condition )$ere t$ere is a structural s$ift to a ne) de*elopmental paradi(m +!-. 2$is possibly represents a
perfect scenario )$ere con*entional li*in( on t$e t$e planet $as drastically c$an(ed0 its arc$etype is dependent
upon a dramatic s$ift in $umanity. Policy Reform is described as incremental c$an(es )it$in t$e disa((re(ated
international community in order to ac$ie*e sustainability as a )$ole. 2$ese last t)o' Policy Reform and Great
Transition are s$o)n to be some)$at interc$an(eable' $a*e similar results' and as t$e aut$ors imply: 2$at one
could lead into t$e establis$ment of t$e ot$er +!-. n t$e ne4t s$ort para(rap$ )ill briefly e4plain some of t$e
results of eac$ of t$e scenarios' and t$e li&ely outcomes t$at mi($t be e4perienced.
n t$e results section' t$eir t$ree conditions )ere e4pressed usin( (rap$s0 )$ic$ described myriad
*ariables alon( a time9line. ,"" years of predicti*e data )as forecast for de*eloped and de*elopin( countries.
2$ese data plots )ere represented by separate small bo4es and trend lines. :ariables t$at )ere included in t$e
multiple forecasts included: population (ro)t$' GDP per capita' intra9re(ional inequity' percenta(e of diet from
animal resources' percenta(e of rene)able ener(y bein( used' and t$e percenta(e of useable public
transportation. n t$e condition Conventional Development, t$ere e4isted an increasin( trend )it$in t$e
*ariables. 5ased on t$ese data results' t$e aut$ors forecast uncertainty )$en it comes to sustainability' as )ell as
results t$at could be interpreted as malefic for t$e safe planetary space. :ariables indicati*e of positi*e (ro)t$:
rene)able ener(y and public transportation are s$o)n in s$arp decline $ere. n contrast to Conventional
Development' t$e conditions: Policy Reform and Great Transition e4$ibited similarly positi*e results in t$e
*ariables su((esti*e as (ood for t$e safe space0 and s$o) a decreasin( trend in t$e *ariables' )$ic$ are
potentially deleterious to t$at space. n one case of di*er(ence $o)e*er' Policy Reform s$o)ed an uptic& in
re(ard to GDP per capita. 5ein( fa*orable for t$at issue in de*eloped countries bifurcated from t$e results of
Great Transition. 2$at specific issue su((ested similarity bet)een de*eloped countries and de*elopin( countries.
n t$e Great Transition, bot$ social constructs s$ared t$e same (rap$ical plot at t$e end of t$e forecast for GDP
per capita. Understandin( $o) t$e aut$ors mi($t $a*e come to t$ese results is no easy tas&. n fact it prompts
researc$ into t$e people t$ey cite indirectly' and t$e people are )or&in( )it$ directly. n t$e ne4t para(rap$ )ill
briefly outline some of t$e &ey players t$ey cite' and $o) current (ro)t$ of t$is community is indicati*e of a
discourse support (roup for t$eir analysis.
Durin( t$e introduction' t$e aut$ors cite a paper by Paul 7rut6en. 7rut6en )as instrumental in us$erin(
in t$e use of t$e term' Ant$ropocene +3-. 2$is is t$e belief t$at Ant$ropo(enic pressure on t$e planet $as
resulted in a ne) era entirely. n s$ort' for t$e last ,"'""" years' and up until t$e industrial re*olution' )e $a*e
e4isted in t$e ;olocene. Since t$e retreat of t$e last ice a(e' )e $a*e en1oyed stability' and $a*e e4perienced
relati*ely no disruptions )$en it comes to climate' biodi*ersity loss' and pollution. 7urrently )e li*e in a time
)$ere $uman acti*ities $a*e li&ely led to e4ponential (ro)t$ of some of t$ese (lobal problems. t is e*en
reasonable to su((est t$at $uman impact $as led to some deleterious effects on (lobal stability. t$in& citin(
7rut6en is indicati*e of )$at t$eir paper )ill focus on later0 and it ser*es as a bac&9cast for introducin( t$eir
relati*ely no*el *ariables' met$ods' and results. 2$e aut$ors also cite t$eir pre*ious )or&s' )$ic$ mainly
focused on a fled(lin( idea: Findin( a safe space for $umanity to e4ist on t$e (lobe +,'!-. 2$ey do t$is to include
t$e )or& of ot$ers' and to create a stron(er basis for t$eir ar(ument. 5y ali(nin( )it$ li&e9minded indi*iduals'
t$e aut$ors are solidifyin( t$eir ideas0 and belie*e t$at it is t$eir intent to foster t$is into a ne) cultural
paradi(m. <it$ t$at in mind )ill reflect on t$eir )or&' t$e community in*ol*ed' and loo& to t$e future' and
)$at furt$er )or& bein( done li&ely $olds.
<it$ a brief summation of t$e )or& t$at is bein( done by Jo$an %oc&stom' Paul D. %as&in' and /ic$ael
D. Gerst' $as led me to (ain a better understandin( in re(ard to (lobal issues and $umanity8s impact on t$e
planet. distinctly *ie) t$is community as somet$in( no*el' and t$eir incorporation of limits to $umanity8s
impact on t$e planet somet$in( of a mar*el. n t$e past' it )as an inability to quantify $umanity8s effects on
biodi*ersity' pollution' and (lobal climate c$an(e t$at li&ely led to opposition or a cessation of discourse. t $as
been ob*ious for many years t$at t$in(s $a*e been c$an(in(' but t$ere $as been little action ta&en to slo)' or
e*en stop incon(ruous (ro)t$. 2$is di*er(ence to)ards settin( limits and analy6in( forecasts is a &ey s$ift
)it$in t$e (lobal climate c$an(e community. n a )ay' t$ese aut$ors are creatin( a basis for ot$er )or& to be
done. 2$eir met$ods and results' )$ile *ery ne)' are applicable to a )ide array of *ariables. <$ile t$is paper
loo&s narro)ly into t$e effects upon social and ecolo(ical nic$es0 t$e results of an analysis includin( broader
ecolo(ical or biodi*ersity issues could be enormous. n any case t$eir )or& is surmountin(' and t$eir
community is (ro)in(. <$et$er or not )e are rapidly approac$in( a sort of e*ent $ori6on to a cultural paradi(m
in re(ard to (lobali6ed issues and ant$ropo(enic pressure on t$e (lobe is not really t$e issue $ere. 2$e issue is
t$at t$ere is a (ro)in( number of people )$o are loo&in( at t$ese problems' and doin( )or& to qualify c$an(e.
/oreo*er' t$ey are loo&in( at t$ese problems t$rou($ a different lens and understandin( t$at t$ere is no linear
solution to t$em. t is (oin( to ta&e international cooperation' cultural di*er(ence from con*entional pat$s' and a
(reater reali6ation t$at )$at )as li&ely used as discourse in t$e past' no lon(er $as precedent $ere. t is t$rou($
t$at no*el lens t$at $a*e c$an(ed my perspecti*e on t$ese issues. $ope to )itness t$ese paradi(ms and t$is
s$ift )it$in my lifetime. f t$e $ori6on is truly ni($' t$en t$ere may li&ely be an opportunity to obser*e t$e
(reatest ci*ili6ation t$is planet $as e*er seen: di( itself out from an uncertain future' function )it$ sustainability
in mind' and e4ist in an en*ironmentally copacetic space.
Literature cited:
,. %oc&strom' J.' Steffen' <.' =oone' >.' Persson' A.' 7$apin' F. S. .' Lambin' ?. F.' Lenton' 2. /.' ... Foley' J.
A. @January ",' !""#A. A safe operatin( space for $umanity. Nature,461, B!C3' DB!9E.
!. Gerst' /.' %as&in' P.' %oc&strom' J. @December !3' !",3A. 7ontours of a %esilient Global Future.
Sustainability, 6, 1!"1!#, !"B,9,"E".
3. 7rut6en' P. J. @January ",' !""!A. Geolo(y of man&ind. Nature, 41#, CFCB.